Hotel California

The Edmonton Oilers gave up a goal on the first shot and again it was painfully early. More galling? The shot came from 10,000 off the stick of Kyle Clifford. In what has become an unacceptable hiccup in Cam Talbot’s game, it set the tone for the road team. Edmonton slept through the first period last night, the outlet passing borderline expansion quality. The second period was much stronger, and the third period was tense and had a playoff feel. A late (and ill advised) penalty from Jesse Puljujarvi forced Edmonton to rely on the penalty kill, three bullets later that’s all she wrote. This team is going to kill some careers, pretty sure.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

 THE LAST RESORT, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 2-1-0, goal differential +5 (4 points)
  • February 2017: 1-2-0, goal differential -3 (2 points)
  • February 2018: 1-1-1, goal differential 0 (3 points)

The expectation is 82-85 points, so the playoffs are already gone. This club is 5-2-1 in its last eight games and can win 12-15 of their final 30. No one who will be dealt is so dear that downward expectations are in order. Edmonton has to get .915 or better goaltending, though.

 AFTER 52, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 21-26-5, goal differential -21 (47 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 28-16-8, goal differential +18 (64 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 23-25-4, goal differential -23 (50 points)

The Oilers once again fell back after getting close to fake .500, now they find themselves two games back. Outlet passing was an adventure last night, the gaps were massive and the sights on the defensemen poor. Fully two of the three pairings stopped carrying the puck out, rather telegraphing the headman passes which turned into turnovers with frequency. Set play? The hell you say.

 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-1-1, three points in three games

I had last night as a win, the Ducks and San Jose have to be favorites heading into the weekend. There’s a fantastic scoring streak coming from McDavid now (7-2-9 in his last three games) and he’s now on pace for 99 points. Fans looking for something to cheer for can look to the captain. Outstanding player.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Russell went 15-14 in 17:31, 1-0 GF and 8-6 Shots. Nurse was the one blue who remembered carrying the puck can also work, and because of it had fewer issues. Russell blocked a sure goal, that’s going to get him a few asterisks in the coaching game report. Were 4-13 against Iafollo-Kopitar-Toffoli in 11:24, and clearly beat the daylights out of the rest.
  • Klefbom-Benning went 10-18 in 13:28, 0-2 GF and 5-7 Shots. Lordy this duo had a tough time with the headman pass, and of course paid a terrible price for it. Soft passes, deflected passes, passes without a hope in hell. I like this pairing, and Oscar is coming on, but they had a bad night. Went 7-10 against Pearson-Kempe-Brown, that Kempe fellow is a nice shooter. Oscar was -4 on the night, that was too harsh by plenty.
  • Sekera-Davidson went 6-15 in 12:06, 1-6 SF and there were no casualties on the evening. Went 3-7 against Pearson-Kempe-Brown. Sekera isn’t back to his normal levels, that isn’t an excuse but it is a factor.
  • Cam Talbot was 23 of 26, .885. He needs to stop those early pucks, that was a ghastly goal to give up that early in the game.
  • Natural Stat Trick.
  • NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-Khaira-Cammalleri went 10-11 together, 3-4 in shots. Lucic had a couple of damned good looks but he’s colder than ice right now. Khaira’s fight was impressive, 25 years ago I would have writen two paragraphs on it. Cammalleri struggled but also made himself useful. Went 7-0 against Clifford-Lewis-Mitchell.
  • McDavid-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi went 11-16 (Leon) and 9-9 (JP) with the big man. McDavid’s fantastic, his goal involved getting one of the two or three best blue in the league into a terrible situation and then sending an accurate shot to the goalie. Edmonton had several chances when 97 had the puck on his stick, I’d run Maroon there Friday. McDavid was 7-12 against Doughty, 1-0 GF.
  • Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian went 4-4, they had a couple of extended shifts in their own zone but weren’t the cause of problems. Pakarinen is a rambunctious fellow, Kassian too.
  • Maroon-Strome-Caggiula were 6-16, 0-1 GF and 2-7 Shots. Edmonton needs more than one line going, that’s an issue.

THE OILERS AND THE WHL

In the lineup of new stories for The Athletic, you’ll find an item on the Oilers and the WHL. Edmonton likes their own back yard and that may come into play during the 2018 draft. The club is slated to choose No. 7 overall, and Ty Smith may be available.

  1. LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). The complete package, with size, speed and skill.
  2. R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Another complete talent, fleet winger (shoots left) who has a well rounded game.
  3. L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Another fantastic skill winger, he brings size and shooting ability to the game.
  4. LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan). Speedy center with skill, he’s an emerging player who may be moving up lists.
  5. LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Nice range of skills and impressive offense, he’s smooth and makes smart decisions with the puck. Underrated based on rankings I’ve seen.
  6. RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite). Undersized puck moving defender who is very creative. Fast, brilliant, excellent in all areas with the puck on his stick.
  7. RC Akil Thomas, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). Undersized center with all of the tools, plus his work ethic gets mentioned a lot. Speed and skill (RH), another player who is underrated based on current rankings I’m seeing.
  8. L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA). Rugged power winger with two-way skills, he has soft hands and can post offense.
  9. RD Ryan Merkley, Guelph Storm (OHL). Another undersized puck mover, Merkley has holes defensively but is a ridiculous offensive package.
  10. LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). Fast as lightning defender, smooth as silk and very creative with the puck. Small (5.09) and electric, prototype for the modern game.
  11. L Joel Farabee, U.S. National Development Program (USHL). Speedy winger with legit skill, he’s a little undersized. Smart player.
  12. R Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. National Development Program (USHL). Pure scorer with good size, he’s done well in international competitions. Plus shot.
  13. LC Filip Hallander, Timra (Allsvenskan). Big, fast forward is an excellent puck transporter and passer, although he can also shoot the puck.
  14. RD Jett Woo, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Coolest name in the draft (Charlie Finley would have chosen him on that alone) he’s a fine two-way prospect and a rare righty. Offense seems to be underrated in draft lists I’ve seen, he might be available when Edmonton picks.
  15. LC Ryan McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)Late ’99 has size, speed and skill, plus the tools to flourish in all three disciplines.
  16. LC Barrett Hayton, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Attractive player because he’s a shooter, possesses a heavy shot and uses it liberally. He played a depth role last season, more prominent in the Soo this year and numbers reflect it.
  17. RC Rasmus Kupari, Karpat (Sm-Liiga). Skilled center who  has rocketed up the Finnish hockey system in the last 18 months. His offense is the big selling point, continues to progress. Offense obscured by playing in a pro league.
  18. LC Joe Veleno, Saint-John Sea Dogs (QMJHL). Good size and speed, creative center who has 25 assists in 31 games this season. Improved in a big way season over season.
  19. RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). A big (6.03, 179) two-way defenseman whose scouting report includes glowing reports with and without the puck. He might go higher based on range of skills.
  20. LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). Smart, very skilled and he’s 6.02, 190. Has good speed, is a playmaker but has a good shot. A nice resume.
  21. RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). Two-way player, big numbers, his first-step quickness is average and he’s one of the oldest players in the draft.
  22. LD K’Andre Miller, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). Big defender who can skate and has a big shot. Converted forward so he’s a bit raw in coverage.
  23. RD Calen Addison, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). He’s small but everything else is strong. Very creative player, very fast and surprisingly effective defensively.
  24. R Dominik Bokk, Vajxo Lakers (SuperElite). Another impressive German forward, he’s an elusive skater and a fine stickhandler, has a scorer’s instincts.
  25. RD Bode Wilde, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). Has size, skill, skating ability plus can shoot the puck and pass it very well. That’s a pretty complete skill set.
  26. RC Cam Hillis, Guelph Storm (OHL). He’s a burner and he’s spiking, point-per-game over his last 25 games. June 2000, playing in an outstanding league.
  27. LC Phillipp Kurashev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). My favorite player type, intelligent two-way center who has already established that area of the game as a strength. The question is offense and that’s why he’s here.
  28. LC Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants (WHL). A 1999-born prospect who will impress you with his vision and passing ability, Roman is a smart player in all areas of the ice.
  29. L Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (SHL). I’m nicking older eligibles more than ever, but this guy appears to be a real player.  Playing in a strong pro league in Europe and having some offensive success, he is a burner, probably a little shy offensively.
  30. W Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SuperElite). Impressive climb through the Swedish system, he has good boots and an excellent shot. Dynamic with the puck on his stick, raw in other parts of the game. Boisvert likes him.
  31. LD Jared McIssac, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Strong offensive potential, he’s a powerful skater who can blue bayou. Emerging offense, too soon to know.

I’ll have a new list (62 deep) probably on Sunday, we’re getting behind here a little in the draft talk. I think Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk and Wahlstrom might be 2-3-4-5 on Edmonton’s list, the team badly needs a scoring forward prospect.

OILERS CURRENT DRAFT PICKS

  • First Round—No. 7 overall
  • Second Round—No. 38 overall
  • Third Round—No. 69 overall
  • Fourth Round—No. 100 overall ( Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. If Montoya plays less than seven regular season games for the Oilers the draft pick becomes a fifth rounder)
  • Fifth Round—No. 131 overall
  • Sixth Round—No. 162 overall
  • Seventh Round—No. 193 overall

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Three outstanding guests highlight today’s show, beginning at 10 on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. McCurdy has done more autopsy’s on Oilers losses than anyone else in the business. He’ll take a scalpel to last night’s game at 10:20.
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com and ESPN. Handicapping the Olympic hockey rosters and what teams might get from Rick Nash.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. How much interest is there in Patrick Maroon? Mark Letestu?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

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185 Responses to "Hotel California"

  1. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    That power play looked great. Gained the zone. What a concept.

  2. p3rsonman says:

    Is there somewhere I can find a count of the goals Talbot has allowed on the 1st shot? If my memory serves me correctly he’s approaching 7-8.

  3. JimmyV1965 says:

    p3rsonman:
    Is there somewhere I can find a count of the goals Talbot has allowed on the 1st shot? If my memory serves me correctly he’s approaching 7-8.

    It’s 9.

  4. OmJo says:

    Edmonton slept through the first period last night, the outlet passing borderline expansion quality.

    I think this team wishes it could pass like an expansion team.

    The Oilers continue the trend of the season, following up a great game with a relatively poor one.

    We’ve gotten to fake .500 once this season?

    On a positive note: Connor McDavid.

  5. vinotintazo says:

    Enternaining 2nd period and 3rd.

    Horrible to give up a goal on the 1st shot of each period (1 & 2) for Talbot.

    Drai, Nurse, Cammy and Lucic missing empty nets, if they score on those who knows.

    Terrible penalty to take with 5 mins left for Poolparty.

  6. frjohnk says:

    OmJo: On a positive note: Connor McDavid

    Where is this team if we had not won the lottery and had Dylan Strome instead of McDavid from that draft?

    McDavid has 7 goals in the last 3 games and the Oilers have 1 win to show for it.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    That first period was ugly – looked like they were skating in quicksand – much better in the 2nd but, damn those early goals. They weren’t bad goals but they are so demoralizing for the team, I’m sure.

    Transition game was extra poor last night.

    Oh, well, on to Friday in Anaheim.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    The top part of that draft has the elite wingers and puck moving RHD that we need. Our two biggest holes. Very exciting.

    Will we draft in the top 10?

    How long until the player is ready for the NHL and to make an impact? Presumably the dmen will take a bit longer.

  9. dkas says:

    JimmyV1965: It’s 9.

    You can’t possibly mean 9 this year, can you? Or is that since joining the Oilers?

  10. Woogie63 says:

    Talbot

    16-17 919 SV% number 17 in the NHL
    17-18 902 SV% number 41 in the NHL

    From good starter to good back-up is a big part of the 2017-18 Oiler story.

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Woogie63:
    Talbot

    16-17919 SV% number 17 in the NHL
    17-18902 SV% number 41 in the NHL

    From good starter to good back-up is a big part of the 2017-18 Oiler story.

    I know that’s a very popular theme around these parts lately but after his injury he has played ok. The defense and pk have been a bigger issue and many nights Talbot is hung out to dry. I know the fan base won’t be happy until he is Dubnyked out of here and yes he needs to be better. But the whole team doesn’t show up to play in the first period. It’s not just a Talbot issue

  12. JimmyV1965 says:

    dkas: You can’t possibly mean 9 this year, can you? Or is that since joining the Oilers?

    It’s definitely 9 this year. That puts us on a pace for 14. Absolutely shocking. There’s probably 3 or 4 more goals on the second shot of the game as well. Not sure about that though.

  13. Mr. D. says:

    McDavid wins games or we don’t win. This team has no offensive upside

  14. JimmyV1965 says:

    The Oil played pretty good last night. Once we got into the ozone we were good. But getting it there was so absolutely painful.

    Same old story. The dmen simply can’t get the puck out with any consistency. I was amazed how often our forwards have to circle back near the King’s blue line and actually receive the puck while they’re moving towards our dzone. They then have to circle back again and bring it back to the ozone.

    This may be my frustration talking, but is Gryba really that much worse than Benning? What is it that Benning actually does well?

  15. OmJo says:

    frjohnk: Where is this team if we had not won the lottery and had Dylan Strome instead of McDavid from that draft?

    McDavid has 7 goals in the last 3 games and the Oilers have 1 win to show for it.

    The first NHL team in the history of ever to be relegated to the AHL.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Last night was about as poor as the transition game can be.

    With Russell and Davidson both playing their off-side, we are terrible at moving the pick out.

    Leftie-right or is a real thing for the defensive group and a real 1/2RHD needs to be the number – priority

    Unfortunately , unless Russell (or Sekera) is moved, I can’t see the acquisition happening.

  17. OmJo says:

    JimmyV1965: What is it that Benning actually does well?

    Blackmail.

  18. Old Timer says:

    Minor league D Corpse and poor goaltending sink the Oilers again tonight.

    Until Talbot can get into the game at the sound of the first bell and the defense can learn to pass the puck, Oilers are not a playoff team despite McDavid and Draisaitl.

  19. prefonmich says:

    If goaltending and special teams were midpack where would this team be?
    I think they would be in the playoff mix and don’t think many would argue that.
    If so the question then becomes can Talbot return to last year’s form?
    Who goes on and comes off the pp and pk units ? Do either of these units need new players traded for or signed or just a remix?
    I have some ideas but would love to hear others on this forum.
    Last night for example would be a win with better goaltending. Period.not all on Talbot of course but just one example.

  20. OmJo says:

    I’m at a point where I don’t mind losses, for two reasons.

    Firstly, the more losses, the less likely this team trades Nuge (I hope). Quite frankly, I don’t trust General Disappointment with big trades. He’d do something stupid like Nuge for Barrie. No thanks. He squandered our wing depth, I don’t him to do the same with our C depth. We are a one-line team, fuck we’re a two-player team at this point. Nuge is very important for all aspects of the game, even strength, pp and pk. You don’t trade that calibre of player for Barrie.

    Secondly, the lottery. I want the Oilers to win just because it would be the greatest trolling moment in the history of the NHL. Dahlin is a good consolation prize, seeing Bettman seething because we won another lottery would make this season a success, for me.

    Bonus: it could very well get General Disappointment shipped off. He fucked this team up with no mercy. How are we already in cap hell when we’ve made the playoffs once in the last decade? It’s unforgivable and makes me kind of angry, seeing the damage this one man did to the future of this team in a span of 2 years.

  21. Ribs says:

    Just watched the “high”lights again and it’s jarring how little effort is being made at times with these guys. That Klefbom giveaway? That’s Cam Barker territory. We shouldn’t see that from our “best” defenceman. Ever.

    Then we see Cagguila taking it easy on a penalty kill and it leads to a goal against. I can’t for the life of me understand why these guys aren’t putting everything they’ve got into the penalty kill. Maybe this is where you need some veteran leadership? I don’t know. It’s baffling.

    How smooth was that McDavid goal, though. Damn.

  22. prefonmich says:

    leadfarmer,

    Yes sometimes he is hung out to dry but last year he was making the first few saves until the team got their legs. Last night’s first goal was completely on him, for example. I’ve watched a bit of the Flames this year hoping I could get my joy from them losing since the Oil aren’t winning. Hasn’t worked out!
    Anyway, the number of games Smith has kept them in until they get going is crazy. I think every playoff team this is a trend. Goalies must at times keep their teams in it and if you don’t have the confidence that will happen it starts to creep in to other areas as well like cheating for offence because you know you must score a lot to win. Last year we won close games and 2-1 games. His .917 wasn’t exactly world beating either. Andersen in TO is another example of a goalie that wins games when his team doesn’t have it.

  23. dkas says:

    JimmyV1965: It’s definitely 9 this year.That puts us on a pace for 14. Absolutely shocking. There’s probably 3 or 4 more goals on the second shot of the game as well. Not sure about that though.

    Shocking is right. That, along with the weird pp% split (not sure if that has corrected itself much yet) has got to be a couple of the most bizarre stats this team has put up in a while. It would be interesting to know how many of those goals came from high danger areas (indicating perhaps the team wasn’t ready to go from puck drop) vs low danger (maybe indicating Talbot wasn’t ready/focussed). Whatever it is, it has certainly been one of the nails in our coffin this year.

  24. texmex says:

    I wasn’t able to watch the game last night, but did mange to see the highlights this morning. A few observations (nothing that hasn’t been discussed, I just need to vent).

    1.) The book on Talbot is out. Goes down way to early so shoot high over either shoulder. If he stands up on the first goal, it’s an easy save.

    2.) Kings 2nd goal was 20% Klef, 80% JP. JP doesn’t come back to support the puck when Klef gets in trouble. His back check was terrible. If he takes an extra stride or two, he gets to the shooter before he can release the puck. He’s young, but that’s hockey 101.

    3.) That sequence where JJ hit the post, Cammy misses open and Lucic hits the post was mind boggling. The Oilers season in a nut shell.

    4.) LA’s 3rd goal was a good goal all day in my mind.

  25. prefonmich says:

    Ribs,

    Where were the forwards in that Benning, Klefbom.giveaway sequence? Not.in frame! That’s where. 3 times they gave the puck away and not one forward thought it might be a good idea to come back? There were 3 kings forecheckers in the frame and our two d. Its not all on the d is all I’m saying.

  26. Extend Russell says:

    Audition season
    Imo
    Fail :
    Benning
    Drake
    Brossoit
    Maroon
    Pak
    Letestu

    Borderline :
    Strome
    JP
    Drai
    Klef
    Talbot
    Kassian
    Lucic
    Cammy
    Sekera-Russell
    Khaira

    Honors:
    McDavid
    Nurse
    Larsson
    Rnh

    Lots of work to do
    I’d start by finding cap space a Rhd and competition for Talbot.
    The wings will have to sort themselves out via draft and off season

    I’m encouraged that Tampa was almost in an identical place as us last year.
    I’m disappointed it’s for different reasons
    Been a weird year for sure

  27. Woogie63 says:

    leadfarmer: I know that’s a very popular theme around these parts lately but after his injury he has played ok. The defenseand pk have been a bigger issue and many nights Talbot is hung out to dry.I know the fan base won’t be happy until he is Dubnyked out of here and yes he needs to be better.But the whole team doesn’t show up to play in the first period.It’s not just a Talbot issue

    Definitely not running another Oiler out of town. But we need more saves, my confidence is low with Talbot, Montoya and LB.

    I would also point out 97 and 29 are consistency one or two feet cheating for offence.

  28. texmex says:

    Pierre LeBrun

    Verified account

    @PierreVLeBrun
    5m5 minutes ago
    More
    NHL waivers today: Brendan Smith (NYR), Marcus Kruger (Car) and Josh Jooris (Car)

    Isn’t Kruger a PK specialist?

    Edit: ~3.1Million per. No thanks.

  29. commonfan29 says:

    frjohnk: Where is this team if we had not won the lottery and had Dylan Strome instead of McDavid from that draft?

    MacT probably would have drafted Hanifin and closed the Hamilton deal. They’d likely be a lot better than this team, with a much better cap situation.

    It’s astonishing.

  30. Oilman99 says:

    Every d-man was panicking when under pressure last night.pretty hard mount to mount an offence when your fumbling around in your own zone. These guys need to spend a couple of hours watching video of Nashville and Chicago d-men headmaning the puck by making quick hard passes.

  31. Bruce McCurdy says:

    JimmyV1965: It’s 9.

    2 of the 9 goals scored vs. the Oilers on the opponents’ first shot were allowed by Brossoit (vs. Carolina & at Toronto). The other 7 were on Talbot.

  32. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Last night was about as poor as the transition game can be.

    With Russell and Davidson both playing their off-side, we are terrible at moving the pick out.

    Leftie-right or is a real thing for the defensive group and a real 1/2RHD needs to be the number – priority

    Unfortunately , unless Russell (or Sekera) is moved, I can’t see the acquisition happening.

    Peter had painted himself into a Corner.

    If we think McD is good now, wait til he has D men that aren’t throwing grenades for break out passes.

    If the D comes back the same next season; and there is a good chance of that; it will be challenging to make the Playoffs again.

  33. Ribs says:

    prefonmich:
    Ribs,

    Where were the forwards in that Benning, Klefbom.giveaway sequence? Not.in frame! That’s where. 3 times they gave the puck away and not one forward thought it might be a good idea to come back? There were 3 kings forecheckers in the frame and our two d. Its not all on the d is all I’m saying.

    Looked like a routine play for the forwards. Defensemen have the puck with time, forwards go for a line change. The giving the puck away three times was the problem. That just can’t happen. Not in this league.

  34. frjohnk says:

    Running some numbers this morning

    5 on 5
    Talbot save% .917
    Expected save % .920
    League average save% is .924,
    Last year Talbot was .929

    Penalty Kill
    Talbot PK save% .801
    Expected save PK save % is .839
    League avg PK save % .872

    Not everyone likes expected goals or expected save % ( which is basically a measurement of the amount of shots, shot location and shot type and the probability that would shot would go in using league averages) but for those that do like it, it does give us a baseline we can use to measure offense and or defense.

    Looking at the Talbots expected save percentage at 5 on 5, it shows a number lesser than league average save percentage. Which means that Talbot is facing the sum of shots, location and type that is higher than what the league average is. If one were to use this a measure of our defense, it would mean our defense is less than league average. Which I think most here would agree with.

    Now that does not let Talbot off the hook as his save % is less than his expected save %, meaning he playing worse than a league average goalie as much as our defense is playing worse than league average defense.

    Onto the PK numbers and we see that the PK is allowing a sum of shots, shot location and shot type higher than league average. So the PK is giving up too much compared to league average. And again, Talbot save % is lower than his expected save %, so he is not playing as good as a league average goalie facing those sum of shots,location, type.

    Now the expected goals do not measure the fableled cross seam pass that the Oilers PK has seemingly allowed almost in every PK. If there was somebody doing some sort of shot quality project, I would bet that would lower the expected save some more. In that case, Talbots save % numbers on the PK may not look so bad.

    Not absolving Talbot and his play ( WTF is going on with the “allowing a goal on the first shot x amount of times this year?”) but I do believe he covered alot of ills of our defense last year and this year he is having trouble doing the same.

  35. jtblack says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 2 of the 9 goals scored vs. the Oilers on the opponents’ first shot were allowed by Brossoit (vs. Carolina & at Toronto). The other 7 were on Talbot.

    Add another 4 or 5 games with the 2nd shot and that means the team has been chasing early in 25% of the games.

    IMO this has just been 1 of the mai problems. Combine the PK issues; lack of scoring wingers and questionable D AND that lands a team near the basement of the League. #Dissapointing

  36. leadfarmer says:

    prefonmich:
    leadfarmer,

    Yes sometimes he is hung out to dry but last year he was making the first few saves until the team got their legs. Last night’s first goal was completely on him, for example. I’ve watched a bit of the Flames this year hoping I could get my joy from them losing since the Oil aren’t winning. Hasn’t worked out!
    Anyway, the number of games Smith has kept them in until they get going is crazy. I think every playoff team this is a trend. Goalies must at times keep their teams in it and if you don’t have the confidence that will happen it starts to creep in to other areas as well like cheating for offence because you know you must score a lot to win. Last year we won close games and 2-1 games. His .917 wasn’t exactly world beating either. Andersen in TO is another example of a goalie that wins games when his team doesn’t have it.

    And here lies the issue. People are looking at SP% and not looking at the player. If you dont think Talbot absolutely stood on his head last year and was one of the top 5 goalies in the league I do not know what to tell you. Save percentage is a worthless metric
    Yes Talbot needs to be better. Allen was struggling and got sat for Hutton. Task was struggling early in the season and got benched for Khudobin until he regained his confidence. Talbot struggled and gets thrown to the wolves night after night just like Dubnyk did

  37. flea says:

    What is really harming the Oilers is their top two puck movers, Sekera and Klefbom, are both not at 100%.

    They need another puck moving option, and in my mind, one of those guys should go next year.

  38. JimmyV1965 says:

    prefonmich:
    Ribs,

    Where were the forwards in that Benning, Klefbom.giveaway sequence? Not.in frame! That’s where. 3 times they gave the puck away and not one forward thought it might be a good idea to come back? There were 3 kings forecheckers in the frame and our two d. Its not all on the d is all I’m saying.

    I remember that sequence clearly. Those passing plays were unforced errors. There was no pressure on the dmen. The kings were circling around in the nuetral zone. At some point the forwards have to expect their dmen to make a pass. There was zero forechecking pressure on the dmen there.

  39. DBO says:

    frjohnk: Where is this team if we had not won the lottery and had Dylan Strome instead of McDavid from that draft?

    McDavid has 7 goals in the last 3 games and the Oilers have 1 win to show for it.

    Fun question

    Assuming we don’t deal the kids, and don’t sign Lucic. We would have

    Hall. Draisatl. Eberle
    Maroon. Nuge. Puljujarvi
    Cagguila. Strome the younger. Khaira
    Pakarinen. Letestu. Kassian

    Better? Worse? Same problem? Defence is a tire fire still, but not too different from today.

    Of course I am happier with McDavid. But it wouldn’t be worse then right now.

  40. frjohnk says:

    Extend Russell: I’m encouraged that Tampa was almost in an identical place as us last year.

    They missed playoffs by 1 point. They ended up with 94 points.
    Stamkos injured for most of the year.
    Young players like Point, Gourde Vasilesky and Namestnikov took huge strides forward this year.

    Not much to compare

  41. Rondo says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Puljujarvi looks very green to me. He has balance problems always falling. I think he needs to get stronger physically. I think he is a good prospect but without playing on McDavid’s line he is not as good as everyone says at the present time.

  42. Gayfish says:

    Rondo:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Puljujarvi looks very green to me. He has balance problems always falling. I think he needs to get stronger physically.I think he is a good prospect but without playing on McDavid’s line he is not as good as everyone says at the present time.

    I can get behind that. He’s like a baby giraffe.

  43. OilClog says:

    Tampa had more then one scoring line last season, Oilers are not Tampa Bay from last season they’re the fucking New Jersey Devils.

    One superstar, one under performing goalie, piles on piles of shit.

  44. bendelson says:

    An easy 10ft breakout pass is available.
    Cammy taps his stick on the ice to let Russell know.
    McDavid and Drai are heading up ice with speed.
    All is good.

    Russell hesitates and doesn’t make the simple pass.
    He delays further b/c now there is no longer an outlet available.
    Drai has to circle back to provide an option.
    Russell throws him a grenade.
    Drai fumbles the puck.
    It is turned over at the Oilers blueline.
    LA attacks with numbers.

    All completely unnecessary and so damn painful to watch… over and over again.

  45. OilClog says:

    Rondo:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Puljujarvi looks very green to me. He has balance problems always falling. I think he needs to get stronger physically.I think he is a good prospect but without playing on McDavid’s line he is not as good as everyone says at the present time.

    Always falling? Seriously what are you watching? He’s a young Bull in a china shop just beginning to realize he’s not a lap puppy, He’s all limbs, unless with Mcdavid he never sees a skilled centre because playing Leon up the middle would be criminal for the coaches to try.

    Good thing he’s 19 and will get man bull strength as the years tact on, but seriously.. when is he always falling? Lol

  46. frjohnk says:

    bendelson:
    An easy 10ft breakout pass is available.
    Cammy taps his stick in the ice to let Russell know.
    McDavid and Drai are heading up ice with speed.
    All is good.

    Russell hesitates and doesn’t make the simple pass.
    He delays further b/c now there is no longer an outlet available.
    Drai has to circle back to provide an option.
    Russell throws him a grenade.
    Drai fumbles the puck.
    It is turned over at the Oilers blueline.
    LA attacks with numbers.

    All completely unnecessary and so damn painful to watch… over and over again.

    Moral of the story?
    Some will say that Drai and McDavid are “cheating for offense”

  47. OmJo says:

    DBO: Fun question

    Assuming we don’t deal the kids, and don’t sign Lucic. We would have

    Hall. Draisatl. Eberle
    Maroon. Nuge. Puljujarvi
    Cagguila. Strome the younger. Khaira
    Pakarinen. Letestu. Kassian

    Better? Worse? Same problem? Defence is a tire fire still, but not too different from today.

    Of course I am happier with McDavid. But it wouldn’t be worse then right now.

    Don’t forget Barzal. Matthews rather than JP?

  48. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    The Oil played pretty good last night. Once we got into the ozone we were good. But getting it there was so absolutely painful.

    Same old story. The dmen simply can’t get the puck out with any consistency. I was amazed how often our forwards have to circle back near the King’s blue line and actually receive the puck while they’re moving towards our dzone. They then have to circle back again and bring it back to the ozone.

    This may be my frustration talking, but is Gryba really that much worse than Benning? What is it that Benning actually does well?

    The zone exit problem is a coaching problem. Apart from Russell, and Sekera’s injury, it is not a personnel problem. Nurse succeeds because he is wllling to lug the puck out, and NOT play the McLellan’s and Johnson’s “play slow” breakout system.

  49. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Last night was about as poor as the transition game can be.

    With Russell and Davidson both playing their off-side, we are terrible at moving the pick out.

    Leftie-right or is a real thing for the defensive group and a real 1/2RHD needs to be the number – priority

    Unfortunately , unless Russell (or Sekera) is moved, I can’t see the acquisition happening.

    It is the breakout system, NOT the players.

  50. Dominoiler says:

    No mention of the ghastly 2nd GA, the two Benning turnovers and the klef turnover it took to give LA their second goal in the first minute of a period.. not good enough.. back the bus up a second time, kill it dead..

    Although the first GA was super deflating, that was a wicked shot through a lot of bodies into the top of the net where Talbot is never found.. i don’t remember the name of your guest, LT, on the lowedown, but since then i see what he observed all the time, with the puck in the oilers zone Talbot is always down.. so yeah, I’m not 100% which way to rag on that first GA, Talbot’s proclivities or rotten damn luck.. either way, almost turned the tv off..

  51. Mr. D. says:

    Gryba always makes the safe pass and will take a hit to make it..get him back.

    JimmyV1965:
    The Oil played pretty good last night. Once we got into the ozone we were good. But getting it there was so absolutely painful.

    Same old story. The dmen simply can’t get the puck out with any consistency. I was amazed how often our forwards have to circle back near the King’s blue line and actually receive the puck while they’re moving towards our dzone. They then have to circle back again and bring it back to the ozone.

    This may be my frustration talking, but is Gryba really that much worse than Benning? What is it that Benning actually does well?

  52. godot10 says:

    Oilman99:
    Every d-man was panicking when under pressure last night.pretty hard mount to mount an offence when your fumbling around in your own zone. These guys need to spend a couple of hours watching video ofNashville and Chicago d-men headmaning the puck by making quick hard passes.

    The Oilers D is coached to be deliberate in their puck movement. The system is to “play slow”. It is a faux “risk averse” system. i.e. OCD “controlled” exits, which backfire because they end up being too slow. Most good team in the NHL “play fast”. Seemingly, more risky, but if one commits to it, and do it all the time, it actually becomes less risky.

    The Oilers D personnel is more than adequate. McLellan’s zone exit systems are just outdated.

  53. Dominoiler says:

    prefonmich:
    Ribs,

    Where were the forwards in that Benning, Klefbom.giveaway sequence? Not.in frame! That’s where. 3 times they gave the puck away and not one forward thought it might be a good idea to come back? There were 3 kings forecheckers in the frame and our two d. Its not all on the d is all I’m saying.

    Interesting, as per my last post i was firmly in the string em up camp, thanks for adding a ripple to the narrative..

  54. Dominoiler says:

    OilClog: Always falling? Seriously what are you watching? He’s a young Bull in a china shop just beginning to realize he’s not a lap puppy, He’s all limbs, unless with Mcdavid he never sees a skilled centre because playing Leon up the middle would be criminal for the coaches to try.

    Good thing he’s 19 and will get man bull strength as the years tact on, but seriously.. when is he always falling? Lol

    Pulju was on his as 5-6 times last night, what game were you watching?!..

  55. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: u

    When you have trouble completing a tape to tape pass 10 feet away you can only blame the breakout system so much. Its both. We have a crappy slow d-d pass breakout system that is run by a lot of players who have trouble making a tape to tape pass. ITs a whole lot of whackapuck going on all over the ice until Mcdavid or Draisatl get the piuck

  56. bendelson says:

    leadfarmer: When you have trouble completing a tape to tape pass 10 feet away you can only blame the breakout system so much. Its both.

    I believe this to be the correct answer…

  57. who says:

    Oilers didn’t show up for the 1st period again. Hard to find one player who looked like he was ready to play.
    The breakout passes were ghastly. Just horrible. Maybe bad ice? But how many long stretch passes were made to guys who were covered, resulting in turnovers. It’s been a reoccurring theme all year. There’s just too many forwards blowing the zone and not enough low support. I don’t know if this is a system problem or player problem but the coach needs to fix it.
    The Kings only made the long stretch pass only when the forward was open and they had low support. As a result they had control of the puck through the neutral ice all night. Probably explains why they seemed to have the puck most of the night.I know they have Doughty, but as a group are they as talented as the Oilers d. I don’t think so.
    One last thing. Macdavid and Drai can be magic together. They can also develop tunnel vision and at times only seem to see each other out there. Drai, in particular, seems to force pucks to Macdavid. I saw a few examples of this last night, and when he had much better passing options.

  58. prefonmich says:

    leadfarmer,

    I agree with you that Talbot needs more support. We need to have a backup that can step up when Talbot is off and this is on the GM. However, it is also known that McLellan plays his no.1 into the ground and rarely uses the backup so how much should a GM spend on a backup that is rarely used?

    Talbot did stand on his head in a number of games last year but no more so than any of the top teams of this year or last. He hasn’t been right for most of this year. Maybe if Brossoit could’ve come in and proven NHL ready things might’ve been different. Talbot, IMO has been more ‘off’ than ‘on’ in his three years as an Oiler though. He was good the second half in his first year. Last year he was excellent the entire season. This year he has been in the poor backup category rather than quality starter. I can think of just a few games where we have had the better tender this year. I don’t really care what the numbers say. I know what I have seen when watching the games.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Extend Russell:
    Audition season
    ImoFail :
    Benning
    Drake
    Brossoit
    Maroon
    Pak
    Letestu

    Borderline :
    Strome
    JP
    Drai
    Klef
    Talbot
    Kassian
    Lucic
    Cammy
    Sekera-Russell
    Khaira

    Honors:
    McDavid
    Nurse
    Larsson
    Rnh

    Lots of work to do
    I’d start by finding cap space a Rhd and competition for Talbot.
    The wings will have to sort themselves out via draft and off season

    I’m encouraged that Tampa was almost in an identical place as us last year.
    I’m disappointed it’s for different reasons
    Been a weird year for sure

    I would move Drai to the honors – PPG on the season with very little on the PP and signifigant time away from McDavid with middling wingers (and he’s over 2P/60 in that time).

    I would move Khaira to honors – in relation to expectations, he’s killing it this year – still lots of defensive mistakes but its essentially his first “full” season

    I would move Talbot to fail – he’s been “better” as of late but goaltending was our biggest issue during the first 3 months of the season (and he remains inconsistent)

    I would move Larsson to borderline – he’s been hot and cold a bit this year but has taken a step back from last year. I believe he’s been banged up for most of the year.

  60. prefonmich says:

    JimmyV1965,

    You should watch the video again. there absolutely WAS pressure. Klefbom is pressured and has no easy pass to make because the two forwards on his side are changing. He tries to pass to Puljujarvi who is on the Kings side of centre and the King within a few feet of him intercepts. He collects the puck back and skates to the left, looking for a forward. The second King forechecker pressure but PJ looks like he is coming back so Klefbom attempts another pass and PJ ends up backing away from the pass until he waits nearly at the King’s blueline. Doughty sees the loose puck and pounces, now there are 3 Kings moving up ice, all 3 forwards chasing back from Kings blueline and Klefbom and Benning in panic mode.

    I’m not saying that Klefbom is blameless here, he forced some passes when they weren’t there but the forwards were not giving any outlets either. Two were changing, fair enough but the third (PJ who I generally think is pretty responsible) is nowhere near close enough to provide an outlet for the d to pass to.

  61. leadfarmer says:

    prefonmich:
    leadfarmer,

    I agree with you that Talbot needs more support. We need to have a backup that can step up when Talbot is off and this is on the GM. However, it is also known that McLellan plays his no.1 into the ground and rarely uses the backup so how much should a GM spend on a backup that is rarely used?

    Talbot did stand on his head in a number of games last year but no more so than any of the top teams of this year or last. He hasn’t been right for most of this year. Maybe if Brossoit could’ve come in and proven NHL ready things might’ve been different. Talbot, IMO has been more ‘off’ than ‘on’ in his three years as an Oiler though. He was good the second half in his first year. Last year he was excellent the entire season. This year he has been in the poor backup category rather than quality starter. I can think of just a few games where we have had the better tender this year. I don’t really care what the numbers say. I know what I have seen when watching the games.

    Would you care to guess where Talbot finished in GSAA last year?

    SECOND.

    2nd place in the league. GSAA of 23.59 is typically the highest or second highest number in each year. He did not have A FEW GOOD GAMES. HE CARRIED THE TEAM. Talbot and Mcdavid were the reason for last year’s success. Yeah he and the team is not having a good year but this whole thing that he’s never been a very good goalie is getting ridiculous

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The zone exit problem is a coaching problem.Apart from Russell, and Sekera’s injury, it is not a personnel problem.Nurse succeeds because he is wllling to lug the puck out, and NOT play the McLellan’s and Johnson’s “play slow” breakout system.

    In no world is the coach telling them to move the puck out slowly. The issue is personnel and the inability to transition the puck – in my opinion, of course.

    Klefbom and Sekera are our two best puck transitioners, both have been injured this year and are currently playing below 100%.

    Nurse has become our 3rd best puck transitioner, however, he is still not that great as he doesn’t make a good and quick first pass and his default is now to lug out the puck – its a great skill but less efficient than a good and quick pass. He will get better as he learns to make that first pass quicker.

    Russell is a poor transitoner and awful on his offside.

    Davidson is OK but not good on his off side.

    Benning is struggling.

    In no way is the coach telling them to move the puck slowly, they simply do not have the ability to move it faster. The puck off the glass and out and the reset are, presumably, coached, but are to be used as “safe” options if there is no immediate way to transition with possession. There is the immediate way often but the team is not able to use it due to personnel and they default to options 2 and 3.

    In my opinion of course.

  63. Melman says:

    godot10: The Oilers D is coached to be deliberate in their puck movement.The system is to “play slow”.It is a faux “risk averse” system. i.e. OCD “controlled” exits, which backfire because they end up being too slow.Most good team in the NHL “play fast”.Seemingly, more risky, but if one commits to it, and do it all the time, it actually becomes less risky.

    I believe what you are referring to is called “the swarm” 😜

    The Oilers D personnel is more than adequate.McLellan’s zone exit systems are just outdated.

  64. leadfarmer says:

    Oilers fans are funny. Devan Dubnyk is statistically having a worse season than Cam Talbot. Do you hear anyone trying to fire him into the sun? Nope

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    prefonmich:
    leadfarmer,

    I agree with you that Talbot needs more support. We need to have a backup that can step up when Talbot is off and this is on the GM. However, it is also known that McLellan plays his no.1 into the ground and rarely uses the backup so how much should a GM spend on a backup that is rarely used?

    Talbot did stand on his head in a number of games last year but no more so than any of the top teams of this year or last. He hasn’t been right for most of this year. Maybe if Brossoit could’ve come in and proven NHL ready things might’ve been different. Talbot, IMO has been more ‘off’ than ‘on’ in his three years as an Oiler though. He was good the second half in his first year. Last year he was excellent the entire season. This year he has been in the poor backup category rather than quality starter. I can think of just a few games where we have had the better tender this year. I don’t really care what the numbers say. I know what I have seen when watching the games.

    We have this back-up now, he is newly acquired and will be here next year.

    Do you believe that playing Talbot last night was the incorrect decision? We’ve had like 4 games in the last 20 plus days and Talbot was very good on Monday.

    Yes, the back-up needs to play more, generally, but, when we finally acquired him, it was tough to get him in to games because every game was so important. Presumably, he will play more down the stretch and at the beginning of next season.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Would you care to guess where Talbot finished in GSAA last year?

    SECOND.

    2nd place in the league.GSAA of 23.59 is typically the highest or second highest number in each year.He did not have A FEW GOOD GAMES.HE CARRIED THE TEAM.Talbot and Mcdavid were the reason for last year’s success.Yeah he and the team is not having a good year but this whole thing that he’s never been a very good goalie is getting ridiculous

    In my opinion, Talbot was the MVP of the Oilers last year every bit as much as, if not more than, McDavid.

  67. prefonmich says:

    leadfarmer,

    I did not say he had ‘A FEW GOOD GAMES’ I said he had an excellent season last year. If you are going to push your narrative, at least pay closer attention to the verbal from the other side. I also didn’t say he’s not been a very good goalie but I DID say that he has had one excellent season and two mediocre to poor seasons. This is truth. No matter how good his 2nd season was, we need consistency in that position and I’m not sure which Talbot we can expect next year?

  68. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    You are joking right?

    He had a great year… Stole a few games for the Oilers sure but you are saying he was in the same breath or better than the leading scorer/league MVP????

    Did he win the Vezina? Did he even get a vote?

  69. Offside says:

    Running Talbot out of town can be good practice for when we run McDavid out of town. I mean, imagine what we could have traded him for after his duo-MVP season!

  70. prefonmich says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Nope I don’t think it was the incorrect decision to play Talbot and I am not a Talbot hater but I do wonder if he is the solution moving forward??? Based on two inconsistent to poor seasons and one excellent what can we expect next year. This is my fear and concern.

    and ugh to the backup for next year. I think this is something Chia has done poorly in his time here. He has not offered enough cover for his starter. Is that because he knows McLellan is a coach who plays his starter into the ground or a case of not having an eye for the backup position. I don’t know the answer but Montoya has played well so far coming into games but played poorly in his one start imo. He doesn’t inspire confidence either.

    I agree that Talbot was one of the MVP’s of last season and I am saying that is what the top teams get consistently in order to be successful. Talbot has NOT been consistent in his almost 3 years here.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    OriginalPouzar,

    You are joking right?

    He had a great year… Stole a few games for the Oilers sure but you are saying he was in the same breath or better than the leading scorer/league MVP????

    Did he win the Vezina? Did he even get a vote?

    I’m not even joking a little bit.

    If we don’t have McDavid, we don’t make the playoffs.

    If we don’t have Talbto, we don’t make the playoffs.

    As far as value to his team last year, I consider Talbot’s performance for the year every bit as important as McDavid’s.

    As we’ve seen this year, bad goaltending can put a season in the sewer all by itself.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    prefonmich:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Nope I don’t think it was the incorrect decision to play Talbot and I am not a Talbot hater but I do wonder if he is the solution moving forward???Based on two inconsistent to poor seasons and one excellent what can we expect next year. This is my fear and concern.

    and ugh to the backup for next year. I think this is something Chia has done poorly in his time here. He has not offered enough cover for his starter. Is that because he knows McLellan is a coach who plays his starter into the ground or a case of not having an eye for the backup position. I don’t know the answer but Montoya has played well so far coming into games but played poorly in his one start imo. He doesn’t inspire confidence either.

    I agree that Talbot was one of the MVP’s of last season and I am saying that is what the top teams get consistently in order to be successful. Talbot has NOT been consistent in his almost 3 years here.

    I don’t disagree with anything you’ve posted. At this point, there is some trepidation regarding Talbot’s ability to rebound next year to a level that, at least, provides consistent and solid goaltending. There are reasons to believe that he will and reasons to believe that we won’t.

    He’s only signed for the one year so I guess we’ll find out next year if he’s going to get an extension and, if so, the cap hit.

    I also agree on the backup however I profess that the position has been filled for next season. Montoya was one of my top targets in the off-season. He’s a proven and established veteran netminder. No, he’s not an elite backup that is really a 1B, however, we cannot afford to spend $3M on a back-up tender (not many teams can) and I am 100% comfortable with Montoya playing 20-30 games next season.

  73. BONE207 says:

    LT WRITES: Edmonton had several chances when 97 had the puck on his stick, I’d run Maroon there Friday. 

    If Sepy or Poolparty played the way Maroon has been playing, they would be up eating popcorn. How TMac approaches this situation will tell us a lot about his coaching biases. Maybe a day at Disney Land will bring some magic to all the Mickey Mouse decisions.

  74. vinotintazo says:

    What would it take to get Faulk out of CAR? one can dream, I’d even settle for Barrie.

    Get it done Pete.

  75. OilClog says:

    Dominoiler: Pulju was on his as 5-6 times last night, what game were you watching?!..

    What are you talking about? He wasn’t on his ass 5 or 6 times last night. Was watching a game where other then anill advised pick, the kid had a great game.

  76. Oilin4 says:

    Trying to put together some rules for good drafting:

    1. If a player has scored alot of points in the OHL falls to you, draft him. Regardless of size, program, name, handedness or astrological sign. See: Tkachuk, Matthew. Debrincat, Alex.
    2. If a Swedish defenceman falls to you, draft him. Especially if people are questioning their offensive output in the SHL. SeeL Klefbom, Oscar. Lindholm, Hampus.
    3. If you’re tempted to draft a Russian player with upside in the 3rd round, don’t. At some point close to or just before the time they’re ready to play in the NHL, they’re gonna make the smart financial decision to head back. See: MacTavish, drafting record.
    4. Draft a Finish Goalie in the 3rd round or later every year.
    5. If any person at the draft table suggests picking someone with poor point production and slow feet because of size or shot blocking ability, promote them to VP in charge of snacks and dinner reservations.

  77. Oilin4 says:

    Oilin4:
    Trying to put together some rules for good drafting:

    1. If a player has scored alot of points in the OHL falls to you, draft him. Regardless of size, program, name, handedness or astrological sign. See: Tkachuk, Matthew. Debrincat, Alex.
    2. If a Swedish defenceman falls to you, draft him. Especially if people are questioning their offensive output in the SHL. SeeL Klefbom, Oscar. Lindholm, Hampus.
    3. If you’re tempted to draft a Russian player with upside in the 3rd round, don’t. At some point close to or just before the time they’re ready to play in the NHL, they’re gonna make the smart financial decision to head back. See: MacTavish, drafting record.
    4. Draft a Finish Goalie in the 3rd round or later every year.
    5. If any person at the draft table suggests picking someone with poor point production and slow feet because of size or shot blocking ability, promote them to VP in charge of snacks and dinner reservations.

    Conclusion: If he falls, Oilers should draft Boqvist.

  78. OilClog says:

    Talbs hasn’t been good this season overall, but this season’s putrid results are not on the goaltending.

    GM trades the horses his coach doesn’t want, Coach plays the horses that are dead.

    GM ships out value at every turn, coach kills all remaining value with unseen stubbornness since the 70’s.

    No skill, shit systems, waaaaaaa the goalie isn’t saving the day.. the 2017/18 Edmonton Oilers.

  79. leadfarmer says:

    prefonmich:
    leadfarmer,

    I did not say he had ‘A FEW GOOD GAMES’ I said he had an excellent season last year. If you are going to push your narrative, at least pay closer attention to the verbal from the other side. I also didn’t say he’s not been a very good goalie but I DID say that he has had one excellent season and two mediocre to poor seasons. This is truth. No matter how good his 2nd season was, we need consistency in that position and I’m not sure which Talbot we can expect next year?

    And than you say you don’t care about stats and know what you see, so at this point it’s better to say good day. GSAA is a very good stat for goalie evaluation. Seriously guys it is. Votes for awards is one of the worst ways for player evaluation as it usually lags actual performance by years

  80. J-Bo says:

    Hey LT… I would love to see an LT draft list versus a redraft based on current info. I’m not sure whether you ever do these comparisons personally, but I would love to see how your list measures up a few years out. Could be neat to compare it to the Mackenzie or Button at the same time. Simply something fun in a cold and blustery Oilers season…

  81. digger50 says:

    I’d like to see Gryba back up.

    I always liked what he brings. He brings a tough presence on the boards and in front of the net. He’ll take a hit to make a pass. Give him a decent puck mover to play with like Davidson and they are a solid third pair.

    Right now the “fast puck retrieval d men” are nowhere to be found. They are running scared.
    Klefbom and Benning being the worst.

    I always said when the d get better that’s when Gryba should be bumped. But they really are not getting better.

  82. ChiliChunk says:

    thehop:
    OriginalPouzar,

    You are joking right?

    He had a great year… Stole a few games for the Oilers sure but you are saying he was in the same breath or better than the leading scorer/league MVP????

    Did he win the Vezina? Did he even get a vote?

    He finished 4th in voting including a 1st place vote from someone:

    1. Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ 138 (25-4-1)
    2. Braden Holtby, WSH 87 (4-21-4)
    3. Carey Price, MTL 19 (0-2-13)
    4. Cam Talbot, EDM 17 (1-2-6)
    5. Devan Dubnyk, MIN 8 (0-1-5)
    6. Martin Jones, SJS 1 (0-0-1)

  83. CrazyCoach says:

    Rondo: Puljujarvi looks very green to me. He has balance problems always falling. I think he needs to get stronger physically. I think he is a good prospect but without playing on McDavid’s line he is not as good as everyone says at the present time.

    Needs a little more strength in the quads and core. The telltale sign is his stance when skating. He’s very upright when he skates and his head bobs a little. Skating is very individual, but kids/players who are weak in the quads tend to skate upright to compensate.

    Send him to Gary Roberts for a month in the off season.

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    frjohnk: Moral of the story?
    Some will say that Drai and McDavid are “cheating for offense”

    Russell is cheating for defense.

  85. bendelson says:

    I believe it was a mistake to interview Wayne between periods last night. Terrible optics. Ignoring the slight slur in his speech, his eyes – red, glassy, and googly – looked like mine after a night on the town with Woodguy…

  86. GMB3 says:

    digger50:
    I’d like to see Gryba back up.

    I always liked what he brings. He brings a tough presence on the boards and in front of the net. He’ll take a hit to make a pass. Give him a decent puck mover to play with like Davidson and they are a solid third pair.

    Right now the “fast puck retrieval d men” are nowhere to be found. They are running scared.Klefbom and Benning being the worst.

    I always said when the d get better that’s when Gryba should be bumped. But they really are not getting better.

    Gryba over Klefbom or Benning lol that’s what this team needs. More Gryba! Less talent! That’s the type of thinking that got us in this mess

  87. who says:

    OilClog: What are you talking about? He wasn’t on his ass 5 or 6 times last night. Was watching a game where other then anill advised pick, the kid had a great game.

    I am a big believer in JP but he was not good last night. Lost most of his puck battles and seemed tentative and awkward. Was guilty of reaching in a lot and seemed reluctant to use his body to protect the puck and knock people off it.
    The last straw was when he got the puck from Macdavid in a shooting position and proceeded to stickhandle himself out of scoring position and then lost the puck. Looked a lot like Eberle from last year.

  88. GMB3 says:

    If Maroon were to fetch a second, I think a Slepy plus a 2nd might get us Leivo, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Leafs use Leivo in a package deal to acquire a D

  89. BONE207 says:

    bendelson:
    I believe it was a mistake to interview Wayne between periods last night.Terrible optics.Ignoring the slight slur in his speech, his eyes – red, glassy, and googly – looked like mine after a night on the town with Woodguy…

    You know how that goes…

    Gene: Hi Wayne…how about a few words during intermission?
    Wayne: Hey Janet or Darryl or Mark or Dustin…hold my beer. How about another Jagr shot too?
    Ok Gene…let’s do this.

  90. thehop says:

    ChiliChunk,

    Good to know.

    Doesn’t change the fact that McDavid was the MVP of the team last year, scoring champ and league MVP.

    Talbot is a decent goalie. MVP of last years team he is not.

  91. prefonmich says:

    leadfarmer,

    We can certainly say good day. But if you’re a numbers guy, shouldn’t you give your GSAA stat for all THREE of Talbot’s years as an Oiler. I think that might provide the full picture better. Since you have given your numbers evidence for one third of his time as an Oiler (not quite one third because ths season is not yet finished I realize)

    It’s not that I don’t see any value in stats but lots of analytics are used in isolation to prove a point, as you have done with saying Talbot’s GSAA was top 2 last year. Great, I don’t think we disagree he was excellent last year. You can use a stronger adjective to fit your GSAA numbers if you wish.

    What of his other two seasons? If his GSAA is strong or top 10 even in those two seasons I’ll happily eat my words. I’m not a numbers person primarily because I’m not sure where to find all these statistics easily and quickly so I don’t support my arguments with numbers, just what I watch.

    Or we can just say good day! But I am now curious what is Talbot’s GSAA in his first season and thus far in 2017/18?

  92. Lowetide says:

    J-Bo:
    Hey LT… I would love to see an LT draft list versus a redraft based on current info. I’m not sure whether you ever do these comparisons personally, but I would love to see how your list measures up a few years out. Could be neat to compare it to the Mackenzie or Button at the same time. Simply something fun in a cold and blustery Oilers season…

    Easy to do. My rankings and then actual NHL number for 2011.

    1. (1) C Ryan Nugent Hopkins
    2. (8) C Sean Couturier
    3. (4) D Adam Larsson
    4. (3) L Jonathan Huberdeau
    5. (5) C Ryan Strome
    6. (2) L Gabriel Landeskog
    7. (6) C Mika Zibanejad
    8. (12) D Ryan Murphy
    9. (9) D Dougie Hamilton
    10. (16) R Joel Armia
    11. (13) L Sven Bartschi
    12. (18) C Mark McNeill
    13. (17) D Nathan Beaulieu
    14. (7) C Mark Scheifele
    15. (23) D Joe Morrow
    16. (40) L Alexander Khokhlachev
    17. (24) L Matt Puempel
    18, (11) D Duncan Siemens
    19. (14) D Jamie Oleksiak
    20. (28) F Zack Phillips
    21. (30) R Rikard Rakell
    22. (42) C Viktor Rask
    23. (77) C Daniel Catanacci
    24. (19) D Oscar Klefbom
    25. (10) D Jonas Brodin
    26. (31) D David Musil
    27. (27) C Vladislav Namestnikov
    28. (61) L Shane Prince
    29. (32) R Ty Rattie
    30. (43) L Brandon Saad

    https://lowetide.ca/2011/06/18/draft-week-post-4-final-top-30/

  93. prefonmich says:

    bendelson,

    At least he is a friendly guy with alcohol in his system! He had lots of love to share during that interview. LOL. You’re right though I think it was a bad choice for interview and I sensed Gene was trying to end it but Wayne just kept talking about family and great guys…

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3:
    If Maroon were to fetch a second, I think a Slepy plus a 2nd might get us Leivo, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Leafs use Leivo in a package deal to acquire a D

    I don’t know what Leaf management is thinking (obviously), however some fairly knowledgeable Leaf fans on another community I frequent believe Leivo could be had for pretty cheap – don’t get me wrong, they think he should be playing every day (and some would actually like to trade JVR for futures and give Leivo an every day spot) but they think his value is very low due to games played.

    Of course, Lou L. may have other thoughts.

  95. Dominoiler says:

    prefonmich:
    JimmyV1965,

    You should watch the video again. there absolutely WAS pressure. Klefbom is pressured and has no easy pass to make because the two forwards on his side are changing. He tries to pass to Puljujarvi who is on the Kings side of centre and the King within a few feet of him intercepts. He collects the puck back and skates to the left, looking for a forward. The second King forechecker pressure but PJ looks like he is coming back so Klefbom attempts another pass and PJ ends up backing away from the pass until he waits nearly at the King’s blueline. Doughty sees the loose puck and pounces, now there are 3 Kings moving up ice, all 3 forwards chasing back from Kings blueline and Klefbom and Benning in panic mode.

    I’m not saying that Klefbom is blameless here, he forced some passes when they weren’t there but the forwards were not giving any outlets either. Two were changing, fair enough but the third (PJ who I generally think is pretty responsible) is nowhere near close enough to provide an outlet for the d to pass to.

    You should watch the game and see the two Benning turnovers, the play was already a mess by the time your highlight viewing begins.. does it excuse pulju still being on the other side of centre, no, but realise you don’t know the whole story by watch just that clip.. all those fuck ups got the scent of blood in the water, hence the high pressure you see in the clip..

  96. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I am increasingly open to well done trades, which is of course the worry.

    Also for a change in whoever can’t figure out how to get these guys playing properly. Most of these guys aren’t rookies. Learning where to be when breaking out can’t be that hard, JP aside for now.

    Chiarelli needs to forget the Bruins, and GM the team he has.

    That Bergeron and Marchand when sane are elite two way forwards that can completely shut down the opp and also score is not the norm, it’s the exception.

    Or having Chara. There is only one giant slow skating player so good at controlling the ice.

    There are very few truly elite players in the league that can play two ways and score well and do it year in and out.

    You can’t turn players that aren’t that into that. I think that’s what leads him to wanting grinder type players, but the problem is most just don’t have enough attack to score enough. The Oilers have few finishers. The team gets chances, they have too many guys that aren’t capable or hungry enough to capitalize.

    I like the Nuge but put him into that camp. My keeper list shrinks weekly. It’s down to Connor, Drai, JP (for now) and Nurse. If they know Larsson isn’t developing a chronic back issue him as well, for now.

    They really need to get some players that can cash. Confidence is a big part of it, but I just don’t see the spark in many of them that is needed. How much more opportunity do Cags Slepy Lucic Strome et al need? Khaira seems to have it so far.

    Maybe Hoffmans’ ransom is worth it. Or Nuge should get Pacc +, if the Habs have anyone else they want.

    ** Also for me Talbot is just too unstable to rely on without someone who can take over, and that’s not Montoya. What would Jarry cost given he’s blocked by Murray who is only a year older?

  97. godot10 says:

    GMB3:
    If Maroon were to fetch a second, I think a Slepy plus a 2nd might get us Leivo, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Leafs use Leivo in a package deal to acquire a D

    I would rather get Barbashev for Maroon. It fills the 4C spot for next year, and gets one a PK’er. Young and cheap.

  98. leadfarmer says:

    prefonmich:
    leadfarmer,

    We can certainly say good day. But if you’re a numbers guy, shouldn’t you give your GSAA stat for all THREE of Talbot’s years as an Oiler. I think that might provide the full picture better. Since you have given your numbers evidence for one third of his time as an Oiler (not quite one third because ths season is not yet finished I realize)

    It’s not that I don’t see any value in stats but lots of analytics are used in isolation to prove a point, as you have done with saying Talbot’s GSAA was top 2 last year. Great, I don’t think we disagree he was excellent last year. You can use a stronger adjective to fit your GSAA numbers if you wish.

    What of his other two seasons? If his GSAA is strong or top 10 even in those two seasons I’ll happily eat my words. I’m not a numbers person primarily because I’m not sure where to find all these statistics easily and quickly so I don’t support my arguments with numbers, just what I watch.

    Or we can just say good day! But I am now curious what is Talbot’s GSAA in his first season and thus far in 2017/18?

    Sure Talbot in his last year in New york had a GSAA of +13 which was good enough for 5th in the league in between the Corey sandwich (Crawford and Schneider)
    First year here he was -7.8
    Last year he was second in the league as I mentioned with +23
    This year he is struggling and is -2.7

    If you look at the combined data for the 3 years he is 12th in the league and is above some pretty good goalies (Quick, Schneider, Price)
    And the guy pretty much all oil fans laughed at Calgary for acquiring is 7th !!!

    My point isnt that Talbot is having a good year, cause he isnt. A smart team would have sat him for some time until he recovered his game, just like is being done with Allen and what was done with Rask earlier this year. We are not a smart team.

  99. CrazyCoach says:

    Hey folks,

    I see a lot in here about the breakout system being used by the Oilers and I’ve seen it in action quite a bit. It seems that the options aren’t there right now for the system in place. Where other teams are successful is that they have a lot of options once they retrieve the puck. I’ll try to throw a little information and a lot of confusion into the topic.

    One of the individual tactics I like to teach to d-men is puck retrieval which leads into the team tactic of puck control/support among d-men. Puck retrieval is easy enough. Start on the dots dump a puck into the quiet zone (behind the goal line) and have the d-man retrieve it and skate it out to the blueline. Start out slow and work to full speed entry and skating with puck (feet moving throughout). You can even mix it up by having them start on their bellies facing the boards and dump it in blindly in pairs alternating corners (or randomly), and even add a light forecheck. Retrieving a puck in the corner can be a skill unto itself and made more difficult with a forechecker.

    Next, come the four basic commands every d-man should know;
    1) UP- Quick turn up the boards on the side you retrieve the puck looking for a pass or for room to skate. Can be done when forechecker is not close.

    2) OVER-Tactic between partners or a forward who has come back. Done when pressure is coming down one side and other side is open. Quick pass D to D or D to F1. Done to create time and space.

    3) REVERSE-Done when D-man is moving puck behind net and skating into traffic. Puck is reversed to D partner or F1. Create time and space.

    4) WHEEL- You have room to skate or other team is changing. Move it and take the open ice. (be like Paul Coffey).

    All four commands should be known by everyone including forwards and the goalie, so they know where the play is going and can adjust.

    Who calls out the play? I get my assistant to do it when we first learn it, then eventually the players do it.

    Not sure if this helps anyone, but it’s how I teach puck retrieval and puck movement with D-man.

  100. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: We have this back-up now, he is newly acquired and will be here next year.

    Do you believe that playing Talbot last night was the incorrect decision?We’ve had like 4 games in the last 20 plus days and Talbot was very good on Monday.

    Yes, the back-up needs to play more, generally, but, when we finally acquired him, it was tough to get him in to games because every game was so important.Presumably, he will play more down the stretch and at the beginning of next season.

    I also heard if Montoya plays 7 or more games, the Habs get a 4th. Less than 7 games its a 5th. Small difference but might matter as to how much if the Net Montoya sees down the stretch

  101. bendelson says:

    godot10: I would rather get Barbashev for Maroon.It fills the 4C spot for next year, and gets one a PK’er.Young and cheap.

    Yeah, in a StL trade scenario. that has been my thought for some time now…
    I don’t think Maroon will fetch any of the ‘big 4’ from StL and would prefer a ready made prospect over a draft pick. So you downgrade to Barbashev. Important to stand firm there however and stay away from Jaskin.

  102. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: Easy to do. My rankings and then actual NHL number for 2011.

    1. (1) C Ryan Nugent Hopkins
    2. (8) C Sean Couturier
    3. (4) D Adam Larsson
    4. (3) L Jonathan Huberdeau
    5. (5) C Ryan Strome
    6. (2) L Gabriel Landeskog
    7. (6) C Mika Zibanejad
    8. (12) D Ryan Murphy
    9. (9) D Dougie Hamilton
    10. (16) R Joel Armia
    11. (13) L Sven Bartschi
    12. (18) C Mark McNeill
    13. (17) D Nathan Beaulieu
    14. (7) C Mark Scheifele
    15. (23) D Joe Morrow
    16. (40) L Alexander Khokhlachev
    17. (24) L Matt Puempel
    18, (11) D Duncan Siemens
    19. (14) D Jamie Oleksiak
    20. (28) F Zack Phillips
    21. (30) R Rikard Rakell
    22. (42) C Viktor Rask
    23. (77) C Daniel Catanacci
    24. (19) D Oscar Klefbom
    25. (10) D Jonas Brodin
    26. (31) D David Musil
    27. (27) C Vladislav Namestnikov
    28. (61) L Shane Prince
    29. (32) R Ty Rattie
    30. (43) L Brandon Saad

    https://lowetide.ca/2011/06/18/draft-week-post-4-final-top-30/

    This is awesome I would love to see more years.

    2011 was Good to the Oilers.

  103. prefonmich says:

    leadfarmer,

    thanks for the response to my curiosity. I looked up GSAA after my last response and looked where I could find this stat and what I found on hockey reference is very different than what you shared. Where are you getting your information from?
    Here are the links I found. I genuinely don’t know if I’m looking at the numbers wrong or looking in the wrong place but it looks like:
    2016_17, Talbot is 9th at 12.21 https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2017_goalies.html

    this year so far, he is 60th at -13.61 WOWZA
    https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2018_goalies.html

    and in 2015_16, he was 27th at +3.31
    https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2016_goalies.html

    Reading about GSAA it does seem like a better stat for goalies individual performance than sv%. By this metric, if I’m reading it correctly, it seems like the numbers prove what the eye test seems to indicate, that Talbot has been terrible this year, excellent last year and a lower level first string goalie in his first Oiler season.

    Looking at these numbers has me more worried than before for next year 🙁

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    ** Also for me Talbot is just too unstable to rely on without someone who can take over, and that’s not Montoya. What would Jarry cost given he’s blocked by Murray who is only a year older?

    I’m not so sure Jarry’s 19 NHL games qualifies him as player that can take over from Talbot.

    Brossoit played 8 games last year and had sensational numbers.

  105. digger50 says:

    GMB3: Gryba over Klefbom or Benning lol that’s what this team needs. More Gryba! Less talent! That’s the type of thinking that got us in this mess

    I’m dead serious.

    I have not seen the talent in Benning or Klefbom this season. Wishful thinking. Holding onto last years performance but really have not seen them well this season.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    bendelson: Yeah, in a StL trade scenario. that has been my thought for some time now…
    I don’t think Maroon will fetch any of the ‘big 4’ from StL and would prefer a ready made prospect over a draft pick.So you downgrade to Barbashev.Important to stand firm there however and stay away from Jaskin.

    You are likely correct but lets remember that Maroon should be extremely enticing to the Blues.

    They are in need of a forward like Maroon but have next to no cap space – a few days ago their cap space was $220K which means, at the deadline, they cannot even afford to add a player with a cap hit of $1M without shedding some cap.

    Maroon’s $1.5M cap hit is likely extremely enticing as they will be able to bring it on board if the Oilers retain the maximum allowed (half).

  107. bendelson says:

    OriginalPouzar: You are likely correct but lets remember that Maroon should be extremely enticing to the Blues.

    They are in need of a forward like Maroon but have next to no cap space – a few days ago their cap space was $220K which means, at the deadline, they cannot even afford to add a player with a cap hit of $1M without shedding some cap.

    Maroon’s $1.5M cap hit is likely extremely enticing as they will be able to bring it on board if the Oilers retain the maximum allowed (half).

    To put it another way:
    Any of the ‘big4’ for Maroon? I’m very pleased.
    Barbeshev? I’m content.
    2nd rd pick? I’m disappointed.
    3rd rd pick or Jaskin? Damn you Chia!!

  108. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: You are likely correct but lets remember that Maroon should be extremely enticing to the Blues.

    They are in need of a forward like Maroon but have next to no cap space – a few days ago their cap space was $220K which means, at the deadline, they cannot even afford to add a player with a cap hit of $1M without shedding some cap.

    Maroon’s $1.5M cap hit is likely extremely enticing as they will be able to bring it on board if the Oilers retain the maximum allowed (half).

    I think you are confusing caps. Once you get into the season, it becomes actual dollars spent for players on the roster. So if one has managed the roster carefully all season…so often if one nominally has $1 million in cap space, over the last 20 games of the season, one can add a $4 million dollar player.

  109. Gayfish says:

    OriginalPouzar: You are likely correct but lets remember that Maroon should be extremely enticing to the Blues.

    They are in need of a forward like Maroon but have next to no cap space – a few days ago their cap space was $220K which means, at the deadline, they cannot even afford to add a player with a cap hit of $1M without shedding some cap.

    Maroon’s $1.5M cap hit is likely extremely enticing as they will be able to bring it on board if the Oilers retain the maximum allowed (half).

    Can we retain half though? I think we can only cut him down to 1.05mil because his actual salary is 2.1 this season.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: I think you are confusing caps.Once you get into the season, it becomes actual dollars spent for players on the roster.So if one has managed the roster carefully all season…so often if one nominally has $1 million in cap space, over the last 20 games of the season, one can add a $4 million dollar player.

    STL has $200K of cap space.

  111. leadfarmer says:

    prefonmich,

    Hockeyreference calculates them in a weird way. It’s been years since I used them so I can’t remember what it was that I disagreed with. Corsica hockey is what I use and would use. If you use the whole 3 years as a sample he comes up 12th in the league. I would like to hear if he’s not the solution then who is? Dell? Everyone is really high on him this year but he’s only two points higher than Talbot this year. Grubauer? Pretty good but never had much workload.

  112. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not so sure Jarry’s 19 NHL games qualifies him as player that can take over from Talbot.

    Brossoit played 8 games last year and had sensational numbers.

    That’a true. I’m thinking look for a young guy establishing now. Good tenders are hitting it by 22-23. After that high end is unlikely, at least consistently. Any goalie can have a good year or run. The Oilers deserve another high end goalie. Or maybe the fans do.

    Numbers have to be taken in context. Talbot has decent numbers but some serious issues with his game still. They aren’t going away now, he’s too long in the tooth.

    Broissoit has some serious deficiencies in his game that were there last year. Guys get lucky and the puck doesn’t go in. What we saw this year is what he is right now. He may get better but the chances he’s high end are fading fast.

    Jarry looked better in the admittedly brief viewings I’ve had. I look for goalies that look to be playing the basics well. All goalies get beat, but it should be plays that only a miracle save would stop, not chronic rebound control issues or poor technique at the posts or down low.

    Or a fatal flaw like going down early, having a particularly weak glove or blocker. Poor anticipation, poor puck tracking skills. Not even enough game to game which is mental toughness and prep.

    Talbot and Broissoit have a lot of these issues and they are easy to pick out even for a mook like me. They are chronic weaknesses in their games. Shoot for the moon. Find the solid technique emerging player and get him behind Talbot because there is no one in the system close enough, and an expensive re up coming for Cam. And hope like heck he pushes Talbot out of the net by good play, soon.

  113. prefonmich says:

    leadfarmer,

    Thanks. I just checked out Corsica. Pretty significant difference to hockey reference. This is one of my issues with numbers though. I don’t trust them because two stats that are supposed to be the same thing tell completely different stories?! How is that possible. We are not even discussing and comparing the validity of one stat over another. We are looking at the SAME stat and it is very different on two sites.

    I digress.

    I don’t think they should give up on Talbot after this year. I think they must stay with the plan and figure out how to better support him to continue the success he had last year. I just worry that with his inconsistency I am not sure which goalie we will see next year. If it is even close to the 2016_17 Talbot, we have a great chance at getting back to the playoffs regardless of the team in front. If not, we will struggle regardless of changes Chia or another manager may put in place.

  114. RonnieB says:

    godot10,

    I couldn’t accept trading our 1st line LW for a 4th line center whose scoring lines read 5-7-12 in 30 games last year and 2-4-6 in 26 games this year. St Louis has no 1st round pick this year so they are probably out of the market for guys like Hoffman and Pacioretty. With no 1st rounder they might be reluctant to trade their 2nd rounder also, and it would have very little value in the 50/60th pick range. If they really want Maroon ( which is dubious since they have lots of wingers already ) they will have to give up one of their top prospects. Maroon plus our 3rd for Kyrou ? I suggested Kyrou because he is the only St Louis player listed ( 15th ) on TSN’s top 40 trade bait list. He turns 20 in May and could be a plug and play RW on the Oilers.

    I more realistically suspect Maroon’s future is with a different team for a decent return.

  115. Pink Socks says:

    Some is on Talbot, without a doubt, the early goals have not been friendly to the team. More importantly, a wretched penalty kill which has not been fixed up to this point in the season. A powerplay that has looked good in the past 2 games has been equally pathetic.

    PP: 29th
    PK: 31st

    TMac took over special teams? Where is the progress? A few glimpses of good special teams play is a fluke IMO.

    Further to that, almost every other team we play when breaking out of their own zone has wingers receiving a pass from the D at the hashmarks. TMac’s team has the wingers at the top of the circle. That additional space causes more space which results in more time for the puck to make it on to the wingers’ stick. If the puck ever makes it to the Oil winger (frequently this is broken up), this allows a D pinch from the opponent with a relatively high success rate. I have no numbers to back this up, only by eye, but I have coached minor hockey for nearly 20 years so it isn’t entirely speaking out of my own ass. There is no such thing as a quick breakout in TMac’s system. It’s all controlled exits and chopping the puck up the boards with fingers crossed that the puck makes its way out of the zone.

    Every game that passes I become more convinced that TMac is not compatible with this roster. Maybe there is an NHL team that will thrive under his control, but this is not one of them.

    29-97-98? Now the team has zero threats to score in the bottom 9. Lucic is cold as ice, Maroon is likely ill, Strome has played well lately IMO but needs more than a sick Maroon and energizer bunny on his wings. Cammalleri is the weakest winger on any of the 4 lines and just isn’t the player he used to be.

    19-97-58
    27-29-98
    16-18-91
    13-55-44

    The other problem I have with TMac is the blender. FFS players say the need to build chemistry. It isn’t rocket science. Spread out the talent and leave the lines alone for the rest of the month. The only consistency with the HC is the inconsistency of deployment.

    /rant

  116. frjohnk says:

    prefonmich: Pretty significant difference to hockey reference. This is one of my issues with numbers though. I don’t trust them because two stats that are supposed to be the same thing tell completely different stories?! How is that possible. We are not even discussing and comparing the validity of one stat over another. We are looking at the SAME stat and it is very different on two sites.

    Hockey reference just takes the difference of goalies save percentage and league average save % x amount of shots to get their goals saved above average number.

    Corsica’s GSAA is a measurement of goals allowed below the expectation based on shot danger faced.

    Hockey reference does not use shot quality, Corisca does, that is why there is a difference in their GSAA numbers.

  117. prefonmich says:

    Pink Socks,

    I can’t disagree with anything you have said here. I really want TMac to be the coach to take this team to the promised land because I don’t know what other options there are currently that are better but I don’t see it. A new coach will set us back again though FFS.

  118. Pink Socks says:

    RonnieB:
    godot10,

    I couldn’t accept trading our 1st line LW for a 4th line center whose scoring lines read 5-7-12 in 30 games last year and 2-4-6 in 26 games this year. St Louis has no 1st round pick this year so they are probably out of the market for guys like Hoffman and Pacioretty. With no 1st rounder they might be reluctant to trade their 2nd rounder also, and it would have very little value in the 50/60th pick range. If they really want Maroon ( which is dubious since they have lots of wingers already ) they will have to give up one of their top prospects. Maroon plus our 3rd for Kyrou ? I suggested Kyrou because he is the only St Louis player listed ( 15th ) on TSN’s top 40 trade bait list. He turns 20 in May and could be a plug and play RW on the Oilers.

    I more realistically suspect Maroon’s future is with a different team for a decent return.

    PC needs to pry one of the big 4 out of St. Louis. IMO Thompson and Thomas are likely #1&2 internally. That leaves Kyrou or Kostin as PC’s target. Maroon (max salary retained is $500k) and a pick (2019 3rd), for Kyrou/Kostin.

  119. Pink Socks says:

    prefonmich:
    Pink Socks,

    I can’t disagree with anything you have said here. I really want TMac to be the coach to take this team to the promised land because I don’t know what other options there are currently that are better but I don’t see it. A new coach will set us back again though FFS.

    If Todd Nelson forgives the organization he would be excellent, or we can all pray to the hockey gords that Stan Bowman drinks too heavily when his team misses the playoffs and fires his coach.

  120. prefonmich says:

    frjohnk,

    Thanks for explaining. Corsica would give a more accurate picture it seems. I have a lot to learn in the numbers side of the game, it seems.
    My issue is still that when someone uses a stat to support an argument, it takes a lot of knowledge to decipher if :
    1. is it the best stat to tell the story?
    2. IS it being accurately represented?
    On that same train of thought, anyone know where the ’15 straight’ challenges not going our way stat is being found?

  121. prefonmich says:

    Pink Socks,

    I agree. I loved Todd Nelson. I also loved Ralph Krueger. Not so much with Eakins if we are remembering coaches past…

  122. RonnieB says:

    Pink Socks: PC needs to pry one of the big 4 out of St. Louis.IMO Thompson and Thomas are likely #1&2 internally.That leaves Kyrou or Kostin as PC’s target.Maroon (max salary retained is $500k) and a pick (2019 3rd), for Kyrou/Kostin.

    I agree.
    I would also suggest we might be overlooking another prospect factory in Carolina. They have a 22 year old LW ( Foegele ) and a 22 year old RHD ( McKeown ) who some say are NHL ready. Cam Ward is UFA this summer and Darling is signed for 3 more years. Looking at their roster i have a hard time identifying any goalie prospect who is anywhere close to being ready for NHL backup duty. Maybe something built around Brossoit or Ellis + ( Slepy ? ) could be worked out ?

  123. Ben says:

    I agree.

  124. frjohnk says:

    Cam Talbot GSAA
    Hockey Reference -13.61
    Corsica -4.64

    All situations
    According to Corsica, Talbot has allowed 115 goals on 1171 shots for a save % of .902.
    League average save % is .913.
    If Talbot were to have league average save %, he would have allowed 101 goals. So this is very close to hockey references GSAA number.

    When looking at Corsica’s expected goals against numbers, we find that the Oilers defense allows a higher sum of shots, shot location and shot type compared to league average.
    What the Oilers defense is allowing is a shot quality of 0.08% higher than league average. League average shooting % is 8.6%. So Talbot is facing a shot that has a 9.4% chance of going in when basing on league average shot quality.

    This is significant.

    Using these numbers,
    the defense is responsible for 9.36 goals more than league average
    while Talbot is responsible for 4.64 goals more than league average

    Both need to be better, but we all know that.

  125. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    frjohnk:
    Cam Talbot GSAA
    Hockey Reference -13.61
    Corsica -4.64

    All situations
    According to Corsica, Talbot has allowed 115 goals on 1171 shots for a save % of .902.
    League average save % is .913.
    If Talbot were to have league average save %, he would have allowed 101 goals.So this is very close to hockey references GSAA number.

    When looking at Corsica’s expected goals against numbers, we find that the Oilers defense allows a higher sum of shots, shot location and shot type compared to league average.
    What the Oilers defense is allowing is a shot quality of 0.08% higher than league average.League average shooting % is 8.6%.So Talbot is facing a shot that has a 9.4% chance of going in when basing on league average shot quality.

    This is significant.

    Using these numbers,
    the defense is responsible for 9.36 goals more than league average
    while Talbot is responsible for 4.64 goals more than league average

    Both need to be better, but we all know that.

    8.6 +0.08 is 8.68, not 9.4
    0.08% of 8.6 is 0.688 so 9.288

  126. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    I am not even sure St Louis will be buying, let alone giving up part of their cost controlled future when they have first round exit written all over them.

    It’s a buyer’s market. Oilers aren’t going to fetch too much. Would be happy with a 2nd for Maroon and a 4th for Letestu and Cammy.

  127. Pink Socks says:

    RonnieB: I agree.
    I would also suggest we might be overlooking another prospect factory in Carolina. They have a 22 year old LW ( Foegele ) and a 22 year old RHD ( McKeown ) who some say are NHL ready. Cam Ward is UFA this summer and Darling is signed for 3 more years. Looking at their roster i have a hard time identifying any goalie prospect who is anywhere close to being ready for NHL backup duty. Maybe something built around Brossoit or Ellis + ( Slepy ? ) could be worked out ?

    One of Brossoit or Ellis will not be back next year since we have Starrett matricullating and Wells turning pro next season. Ideally one of Ellis/Brossoit splits duty with Starrett next year in Bakersfield with Wells getting a majority of the starts in the ECHL. It may be a pipe dream, but moving one of the goalers with a Slepy (though I want him to stay and play), for either Foegle or McKeown would be a wise move if available.

  128. frjohnk says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): 8.6 +0.08 is 8.68, not 9.4
    0.08% of 8.6 is 0.688 so 9.288

    wrong place for decimal point. Doh. My bad.

    what the league average goalie faces is a shot that has a 8.6% chance of going in.
    What Talbot faces (because the D allow, on average a more dangerous shot) is a shot that has a 9.4% chance of going in.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    I am not even sure St Louis will be buying, let alone giving up part of their cost controlled future when they have first round exit written all over them.

    It’s a buyer’s market. Oilers aren’t going to fetch too much. Would be happy with a 2nd for Maroon and a 4th for Letestu and Cammy.

    Why do you say its a buyers market? There are few teams that would consider themselves out of it and, from accounts, prices are very high.

  130. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    frjohnk: wrong place for decimal point. Doh. My bad.

    what the league average goalie faces is a shot that has a 8.6% chance of going in.
    What Talbot faces (because the D allow, on average a more dangerous shot) is a shot that has a 9.4% chance of going in.

    Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Maroon is a very appealing target because he is so cheap. They should now zoom him. Get a sense of self preservation please Oilers.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pink Socks: One of Brossoit or Ellis will not be back next year since we have Starrett matricullating and Wells turning pro next season.Ideally one of Ellis/Brossoit splits duty with Starrett next year in Bakersfield with Wells getting a majority of the starts in the ECHL.It may be a pipe dream, but moving one of the goalers with a Slepy (though I want him to stay and play), for either Foegle or McKeown would be a wise move if available.

    They have a log-jam and Skinner is old enough to turn pro but, given the log-jam, I think he’ll be back in the WHL for one more year.

    I’m not so sure they move on from one of Brossoit or Ellis – when Montoya was acquired, I was thinking they might move on from LB but he’s getting the vast majority of starts in the AHL – it doesn’t seem like they are done with him. I do think they’ll qualify Ellis and bring him back – he’s developing at the expected pace and I don’t imagine they will lose the asset for nothing. They may look to trade Ellis or Starret for a pick but, failing that, I think they will need to get inventive finding places for the goalies to play.

  133. jtblack says:

    LT and all of you have and will have a good handle on the 2018 NHL draft. For those that like looking ahead to Future Prospects, here are some names to watch for the 2019 NHL Draft.

    CONTEXT: Very few 16 yr olds manage 1 PPG in Junior. Those that do, are usually Top 10 NHL picks(ie: RNH, B. Schenn, Ryan Johansen, etc). Players progress at different times, some very high picks only put up between 25 – 40 points as 16 year olds (ie: Cody Glass) and then rocket up to over 1 PPG as a 17 yr old. For Oilers fans, Ryan Smyth had 19 Goals & 33 Points as a 16 year old.

    As for Defenseman, 15 – 30 points as a 16 yr old is excellent. Ty Smith, who is ranked in the Top 10 this year, had 32 points as a 16 year old.

    These are WHL players only. I have put beside them, their draft position into the WHL and their current stats from this year. This is a much stronger WHL draft group than 2018.

    Draft; Name ; GP G A PTS
    #1 – Peyton Krebs 48 15 31 46
    #2- Kirby Dach 35 4 24 28
    #4- Logan Barlage 51 3 9 12
    #5- Josh Williams 30 6 5 11
    #6 Sasha Mutala 48 8 7 15
    #8 Luke Toporoski 40 6 7 13
    #19 Dylan Cozens 40 16 23 39

    D-Men
    #3 Bowen Byram 41 6 12 18
    #7 Matthew Robertson 46 4 5 9
    #11 Kaeden Korczak 47 2 10 12

    Of course, there are others as well. These are just some names to Watch. Krebs, Dach, Bowen & Cozens are having exceptional 16 yr old seasons.

    Will be interesting to see how these players progress over the last 25 games of this season, and which ones continue to progress in their draft year.

  134. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Why do you say its a buyers market?There are few teams that would consider themselves out of it and, from accounts, prices are very high.

    It’s unusual this year.

    The teams clearly out of it already are numerous.
    Edmonton
    Arizona
    Buffalo
    Vancouver
    Florida
    Ottawa
    Montreal
    Detroit

    That is 8 teams clearly out leaving 23 in the hunt.

    Then you have the NY Rangers bowing out and looking to retool.

    That makes 9 sellers already.

    Not only that but the kinds of teams out of it are the big names.
    Rangers
    Habs
    Wings
    etc.

    Looking at these 9 rosters I see plenty of forwards available. Not so many D.

    Chicago is also realistically out of it and may do a minor retool as well.

    It is rare to have so many clear sellers so early. Potentially 10-11 teams to sell

    Prices are high? No deals have been made. I can set my asking price at whatever I want but if no one pays it that ain’t the real price.

    Let’s see a deal first before we declare prices are high

  135. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Just saying we should keep our expectations low. I see an awful lot of people expecting Chia to land a big 4 guy for Maroon and in my opinion that is so remote it is unfair to expect that of Chia even with an add.

    Maroon for a late 2nd
    Letestu for a 4th
    Cammy for a 4th
    Might see one surprise name.

    That would be my realistic benchmark and I would be happy if he gets more.

    One other proposal I would have would be to try to showcase Montoya then trade him up for a 3rd from a team needing veteran insurance for the playoffs. Upgrade on the pick we gave up.

  136. frjohnk says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Just saying we should keep our expectations low. I see an awful lot of people expecting Chia to land a big 4 guy for Maroon and in my opinion that is so remote it is unfair to expect that of Chia even with an add.

    Maroon for a late 2nd
    Letestu for a 4th
    Cammy for a 4th
    Might see one surprise name.

    Totally agree. Maybe, maybe someone is willing to give Chia a conditional first for Maroon ala Patrick Eaves last year, but a 2nd rounder is probably more likely.

  137. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Anybody have ideas on who the best RHD are out there, available vets and younger players showing growth and a high ceiling?

    Unfortunately or fortunately the Oilers can’t afford Karlsson or Doughty because of the CMD and Drai contracts, yet. So they’ll miss on them. Or end up with 4 good players on the team and replacement players because cap.

    I really want PC to go find undervalued and emerging players to push things forward. He’s made awful trades and also found young and good players throughout his career. Those trades seem to be his strength/“.

  138. jtblack says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): It’s unusual this year.

    The teams clearly out of it already are numerous.
    Edmonton
    Arizona
    Buffalo
    Vancouver
    Florida
    Ottawa
    Montreal
    Detroit

    That is 8 teams clearly out leaving 23 in the hunt.

    Then you have the NY Rangers bowing out and looking to retool.

    That makes 9 sellers already.

    Not only that but the kinds of teams out of it are the big names.
    Rangers
    Habs
    Wings
    etc.

    Looking at these 9 rosters I see plenty of forwards available. Not so many D.

    Chicago is also realistically out of it and may do a minor retool as well.

    It is rare to have so many clear sellers so early. Potentially 10-11 teams to sell

    Prices are high? No deals have been made. I can set my asking price at whatever I want but if no one pays it that ain’t the real price.

    Let’s see a deal first before we declare prices are high

    Good Points. Maybe GM’s are being more realistic, knowing outside of a “Hamblurgar” type run; Teams that are 7 or 8 points back are pretty much cooked.

    I dont see how Maroon gets more than a 2nd? but who knows. I just hope PC gets players / picks There is no reason to keep certain players.

  139. J-Bo says:

    Lowetide: Easy to do. My rankings and then actual NHL number for 2011.

    1. (1) C Ryan Nugent Hopkins
    2. (8) C Sean Couturier
    3. (4) D Adam Larsson
    4. (3) L Jonathan Huberdeau
    5. (5) C Ryan Strome
    6. (2) L Gabriel Landeskog
    7. (6) C Mika Zibanejad
    8. (12) D Ryan Murphy
    9. (9) D Dougie Hamilton
    10. (16) R Joel Armia
    11. (13) L Sven Bartschi
    12. (18) C Mark McNeill
    13. (17) D Nathan Beaulieu
    14. (7) C Mark Scheifele
    15. (23) D Joe Morrow
    16. (40) L Alexander Khokhlachev
    17. (24) L Matt Puempel
    18, (11) D Duncan Siemens
    19. (14) D Jamie Oleksiak
    20. (28) F Zack Phillips
    21. (30) R Rikard Rakell
    22. (42) C Viktor Rask
    23. (77) C Daniel Catanacci
    24. (19) D Oscar Klefbom
    25. (10) D Jonas Brodin
    26. (31) D David Musil
    27. (27) C Vladislav Namestnikov
    28. (61) L Shane Prince
    29. (32) R Ty Rattie
    30. (43) L Brandon Saad

    https://lowetide.ca/2011/06/18/draft-week-post-4-final-top-30/

    Thanks for posting this LT! Fascinating draft year that 2011. A lot of quality, but still tough to sort out an order today if there was a redraft. Your list had some great calls!

  140. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Scheifele was thought to be a reach by Winnipeg, allowing Couturier to fall to the Flyers.

    In a redraft he would go 1st overall. Pretty bold move by the Jets that really worked out.

  141. JD_Wry says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    attaboy Hall. Beat those Flames.

    But it turned out like Oilways.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    Goal and an assist for Maksimov in a 4-3 loss.

    Samorukov held off the scoresheet.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    FLA is 6 points back with 3 games in hand – I don’t believe they consider themselves out of it.

  144. Jonathan Willis says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Scheifele was thought to be a reach by Winnipeg, allowing Couturier to fall to the Flyers.

    In a redraft he would go 1st overall. Pretty bold move by the Jets that really worked out.

    That’s a pick that turned out a lot better than I was expecting, but I’m not sure he’d go first overall Nikita Kucherov would have something to say about that. Gotta love that Russian factor.

  145. Ryan says:

    Jonathan Willis: That’s a pick that turned out a lot better than I was expecting, but I’m not sure he’d go first overall Nikita Kucherov would have something to say about that. Gotta love that Russian factor.

    Iirc, people were laughing at the Jets when they picked Scheifele.

    I honestly felt a sense of pity for the Jets when they made that reach. I remember hearing some banter from the Jets org about how they knew him personally and his great character yadda yadda…

    Excellent pick from an org that drafts better than the Oilers.

  146. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: I would rather get Barbashev for Maroon.It fills the 4C spot for next year, and gets one a PK’er.Young and cheap.

    Khaira has proven he can handle the 4C duties. Barbashev has little to no value.

    LT mentioned two names: Jordan Schmaltz (STL) and Jakob Forsbaka-Karlsson (BOS). Maybe I missed it, but why aren’t discussing these players? On another forum I discussed the Big 4 with a Blues fan (about 2 weeks ago) and he volunteered Schmaltz’s name as a one-for-one deal with Maroon.

    Thoughts?

  147. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Jonathan Willis: That’s a pick that turned out a lot better than I was expecting, but I’m not sure he’d go first overall Nikita Kucherov would have something to say about that. Gotta love that Russian factor.

    Great point. I forgot about him because he wasn’t listed in LT’s list. And yes, Tampa was drafting Russians while everyone else was shying away. They did well.

    Kuch probably goes 1st based on last year and this. Scheifele as a centre vs a wing likely makes it debatable.

    The rest is a mish mash of good players
    Nuge, Couturier, Landeskog., Huberdeau., Hamilton., Saad, Rakell, Klef., Brodin probably mostly debatable depending on team needs.

  148. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    I am not even sure St Louis will be buying, let alone giving up part of their cost controlled future when they have first round exit written all over them.

    It’s a buyer’s market. Oilers aren’t going to fetch too much. Would be happy with a 2nd for Maroon and a 4th for Letestu and Cammy.

    Kostin was 31OV. Doesn’t that basically make him a second rounder?

  149. JD_Wry says:

    The Flames 14 points up on the Oilers?

    FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU…

  150. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    As for Talbot here are my two cents.

    When we dealt for him I liked the deal having seen him in NY in person. But I thought he was playing behind a pretty solid team in NY at the time and his sample size as a starter was small.

    I thought he might turn out to be an average starter.

    A couple of math focused posters trotted out goalie historical comparables I did not quite understand to say I was underestimating him. I said we will see.

    In year one he was good.

    In year two he was excellent. Probably will be his magnus opus career season. But I was worried he was overworked. Folks said he had no wear and tear as a late bloomer so not to worry. I was still worried.

    This year he has been bad. No two shakes about it. He also got hurt. Impossible to prove but I still think being overworked has something to do with it. Now some folks blame the season on him.

    I think Cam will bounce back next year. But not to last year’s career best year. I think he will be an average starter again.

    Any other improvement has to come from coaching (Joel Quenneville), special teams, luck, and internal growth. This will be a cap team battling for the playoffs–thanks Chia.

    The only thing is Chia rode Thomas’ .938 to a Cup so he knows the value of an elite goalie better than most. Who knows what he might be thinking there.

    I for one think Talbot will bounce back next year.

  151. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JimmyV1965: Kostin was 31OV.Doesn’t that basically make him a second rounder?

    You keep saying this. No. He is worth more based on his play since the draft. That is my opinion.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Khaira has proven he can handle the 4C duties. Barbashev has little to no value.

    LT mentioned two names: Jordan Schmaltz (STL) and Jakob Forsbaka-Karlsson (BOS). Maybe I missed it, but why aren’t discussing these players? On another forum I discussed the Big 4 with a Blues fan (about 2 weeks ago)and he volunteered Schmaltz’s name as a one-for-one deal with Maroon.

    Thoughts?

    I agree – while Khaira is currently playing up the lineup, he should be penciled in as the 4C next season – no higher.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think being overworked last season has had any effect on Talbot’s play this season. He had 4 months (give or take) to rest and recover from game action and he is an early 30s professional athlete in tip top shape.

    Perhaps being over-worked earlier in this season has had an effect on his game, however, he was bad to start the year and, as inconsistent as he continues to be, he is playing better than earlier in the year.

  154. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): You keep saying this. No. He is worth more based on his play since the draft. That is my opinion.

    He has 5 goals and 16 pts in 39 games in the AHL. He’s not exactly knocking it out of the park. And he shouldn’t be because the Blues don’t have an AHL team. They’re sharing the Vegas team.

    I actually agree with your evaluations of what the Oilers will get in a trade for their UFAs. I just think you’re overvaluing Kostin. I mean I like him and he’s a good prospect but he’s just another good prospect.

  155. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JimmyV1965,

    If Maroon really lands Kostin, Kyrou, Thompson or Thomas I will happily eat crow and sing Chia’s praises. I just think the NHL has changed from the days when young talent goes for rentals on middle of the pack teams.

    A team like Tampa or maybe Winnipeg, Boston or Nashville, maybe they are willing to pay to get that Cup. Teams like the Blues who don’t have money to spend., they prefer to keep their young NHL ready prospects. If they want Maroon Barbashev and a pick or Schmaltz or something might be enough. Who, realistically will go higher than a 2nd?

    If it happens, hallelujah, but to expect it seems unfair toChia.

  156. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JimmyV1965: He has 5 goals and 16 pts in 39 games in the AHL. He’s not exactly knocking it out of the park. And he shouldn’t be because the Blues don’t have an AHL team.They’re sharing the Vegas team.

    I actually agree with your evaluations of what the Oilers will get in a trade for their UFAs. I just think you’re overvaluing Kostin. I mean I like him and he’s a good prospect but he’s just another good prospect.

    He is 18. Numbers alone don’t tell the story. Size, skating, etc. He has a very high ceiling. Maybe I am overrating him. But if we were in, say, last year’s position and had Kostin in our system and traded him for a Maroon rental I think most of us would be furious. No?

  157. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t think being overworked last season has had any effect on Talbot’s play this season. He had 4 months (give or take) to rest and recover from game action and he is an early 30s professional athlete in tip top shape.

    Perhaps being over-worked earlier in this season has had an effect on his game, however, he was bad to start the year and, as inconsistent as he continues to be, he is playing better than earlier in the year.

    Like I said., it is impossible for me to prove that being overworked had an adverse effect. I thought the description of the injury seemed like it.

    So your opinion is as good as mine.

  158. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Hawks are done. Should join the sellers list.

  159. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Khaira has proven he can handle the 4C duties. Barbashev has little to no value.

    LT mentioned two names: Jordan Schmaltz (STL) and Jakob Forsbaka-Karlsson (BOS). Maybe I missed it, but why aren’t discussing these players? On another forum I discussed the Big 4 with a Blues fan (about 2 weeks ago)and he volunteered Schmaltz’s name as a one-for-one deal with Maroon.

    Thoughts?

    Khalifa will be playing top nine, probably on wing.

  160. unca miltie says:

    JD_Wry:
    The Flames 14 points up on the Oilers?

    FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU…

    just think what it would be if the flames could beat the Oil

  161. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    https://thehockeywriters.com/st-louis-blues-klim-kostin-ready/

    Will leave this interview here. If Maroon and a sweetener can get us Kostin I am all for taking that chance. He could be dynamite on Drai or McDavid’s line in 3 years.

    But I really doubt the Blues don’t covet him and think they got a steal.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Khalifa will be playing top nine, probably on wing.

    Based on?????

    He’s been express that he likes center better, he’s been developed as a center, he’s played his best hockey this year as a center, his game is perfect for a 4C and the incumbent 4C is an ageing and declining pending UFA.

  163. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers don’t need 18 YO prospects, they have and will increasingly have their own unless they keep trading picks away, their drafting under PC has been good.

    They need players ready to come in soon that have skill sets they need, mainly a nose for the net.

    They have a lot of tortoises, they need a few more rabbits again.

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    Let me just state for the record. I DO NOT think the Oilers are trading Maroon to the Blues for one of their big prospects. Do I think it’s possible. Sure. But it’s more wishful thinking.

    I do think the Blues will make a deal at the deadline. And I think they may trade one of their prospects. However, Rick Nash is now the big fish in the UFA rental market. I still think the Maroon trade could happen, but there’s lots of sellers out there. Maroon is easily worth a second round pick. If Chia is creative he can make it a good prospect instead.

  165. Jaxon says:

    If Edmonton doesn’t end up with one of the top 4 or 5 picks I think they should take a serious look at Veleno. I know he’s fallen off from being rated higher in the past and being granted exceptional player status. But since being traded to a contender at the deadline he is really turning it on. He has 7 goals and 21 assists in 16 games. That’s a 1.75 pts/gp pace.

    QMJHL High Draft Picks For comparison:
    Crosby 2.71 pts/gp
    Drouin 2.14 pts/gp
    *Veleno 1.75 pts/gp* (small sample size at the moment)
    MacKinnon 1.70 pts/gp
    Ehlers1.65 pts/gp
    Dubois1.60 pts/gp
    Huberdeau 1.57 pts/gp
    Hischier 1.51 pts/gp
    Giroux 1.49 pts/gp
    Voracek 1.46 pts/gp
    Zadina 1.44 pts/gp
    Grigorenko 1.44 pts/gp
    Coutruier 1.41 pts/gp

    If he keeps this up for the rest of the season and through the playoffs I could see him rising back into top 10, maybe even top 5 territory. His scouting reports all sound amazing.

    “There is so much to like about Joe Veleno. He’s a hard-nosed workhorse that makes the players around him better. The fleet-footed center is unselfish and will primarily look to make a play at top speed; however, when the chance arises to put it in the pot himself, he will capitalize. He sees the ice well and is rarely caught out of position. His defensive game is refined and he actively pursues puck control. Transitioning to offence is natural, smooth, and quick. All-in-all, a well-rounded two-way forward that skates well and can be the catalyst a team needs to turn a game in its favor. If he can find the consistency in refusing to let himself get taken out of plays, especially if he doesn’t start them, he will thrive and exceed expectations.” – (Curtis Joe, EP 2017)

    Steve Kournianos of the Draft Analyst has him ranked at #4 on January 9th, which was before his torrid pace.

  166. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Based on?????

    He’s been express that he likes center better, he’s been developed as a center, he’s played his best hockey this year as a center, his game is perfect for a 4C and the incumbent 4C is an ageing and declining pending UFA.

    I think he is ready to be a top nine player, and he. Is already here, available, and cheap. Considering the cap situation, a top nine free agent is going to be more expensive than Khaira, and a competent Letestu
    I replacement will be cheaper than Letestu. The Oilers need cheap competent players next year. Khaira on the 4the line might be ideal but the cap means they have to play him top nine.

  167. GMB3 says:

    digger50: I’m dead serious.

    I have not seen the talent in Benning or Klefbom this season. Wishful thinking. Holding onto last years performance but really have not seen them well this season.

    Yet both still look better than Eric Gryba

  168. SwedishPoster says:

    http://www.shl.se/gamecenter/qTJ-3n2xULBS6/articles/post

    Filip Berglund had a strong game last night. Check out the highlights found behind the link above, you have to scroll down to see it. And might need to get a swedish ip.
    He’s #6 in black. The first few sequences are the most interesting, first he shows off his shot, I love how short his wind up is yet he gets so much behind it. After that he’s got a beauty assist to the second goal.
    He’s being used in a mainly defensive role, covering for his roaming D partner but here he shows he still has offensive tools. Which was his bread and butter as a junior player.

  169. GMB3 says:

    prefonmich:
    Pink Socks,

    I can’t disagree with anything you have said here. I really want TMac to be the coach to take this team to the promised land because I don’t know what other options there are currently that are better but I don’t see it. A new coach will set us back again though FFS.

    It didn’t set back San Jose when they hired Deboer

  170. GMB3 says:

    Jaxon,

    I’d prefer Wahlstrom. Veleno’s biggest strength according to most scouting reports I’ve seen has been his playmaking ability and we have plenty of those. Wahlstrom has 15 goals in 15 games in the USHL, and I’ve read plenty of him having a great shot.

    I think one of the downfalls of this team is lacking shoot first guys

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Let me just state for the record. I DO NOT think the Oilers are trading Maroon to the Blues for one of their big prospects. Do I think it’s possible. Sure. But it’s more wishful thinking.

    I do think the Blues will make a deal at the deadline. And I think they may trade one of their prospects. However, Rick Nash is now the big fish in the UFA rental market.I still think the Maroon trade could happen, but there’s lots of sellers out there. Maroon is easily worth a second round pick. If Chia is creative he can make it a good prospect instead.

    I don’t disagree with you, however, at the same time, the small cap hit that Maroon comes with can be a real factor – in particular with a team like the Blues that have so little cap space. I don’t think they can even be in the market for a player like Nash, but can be for Maroon.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: I think he is ready to be a top nine player, and he. Is already here, available, and cheap.Considering the cap situation, a top nine free agent is going to be more expensive than Khaira, and a competent Letestu
    I replacement will be cheaper than Letestu.The Oilers need cheap competent players next year.Khaira on the 4the line might be ideal but the cap means they have to play him top nine.

    3 months ago he was exposed in the expansion draft and then a healthy scratch for 10 of the first 16 games. He has done an amazing job running with his opportunity and, essentially, forcing himself in to the lineup on a nightly basis. He has shown more offensive and puck skills than I ever though he had and has solidified himself as an every day NHL player.

    With that said, the sample size is, in my opinion, way too small to say he’s earned his way up the lineup full time. He has the highest shooting percentage on the team approaching 19% and we know that will not be sustainable. His cap hit is $675K next year – it would be great if we could have such a nominal cap hit up the lineup but, if he’s pencilled in above the 4th line, then, in my opinion, the top 9 is, again, not good enough.

    Of course, I would rather take that risk and play him up the lineup to save some cap if we use the cap on the most important hole, 1/2RD.

  173. Spooky Lynx says:

    Happy Olympics Lowetidians!

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster: http://www.shl.se/gamecenter/qTJ-3n2xULBS6/articles/post
    Filip Berglund had a strong game last night. Check out the highlights found behind the link above, you have to scroll down to see it. And might need to get a swedish ip.
    He’s #6 in black. The first few sequences are the most interesting, first he shows off his shot, I love how short his wind up is yet he gets so much behind it. After that he’s got a beauty assist to the second goal.
    He’s being used in a mainly defensive role, covering for his roaming D partner but here he shows he still has offensive tools. Which was his bread and butter as a junior player.

    Excellent post – thank you.

    Nice to see the highlights.

    I assume he’s going to have a huge role on the team next season and then, presumably, come over to North America.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    Happy Olympics Lowetidians!

    I LOVE the Olympics. Frankly a bigger fan of the summer Olympics but also love the winter.

    Go Canada!

  176. JD_Wry says:

    GMB3: Yet both still look better than Eric Gryba

    Hey, but he’ll take a hit to try a pass!

  177. ArmchairGM says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): He is 18. Numbers alone don’t tell the story. Size, skating, etc. He has a very high ceiling. Maybe I am overrating him. But if we were in, say, last year’s position and had Kostin in our system and traded him for a Maroon rental I think most of us would be furious. No?

    I agree with this, although your comment was “based on his play since the draft” he’s worth more than his draft position. Other than the WJC, I don’t agree. His league play has been unremarkable.

    AHL draft+1 numbers:

    Kostin 17-18: 39, 5-11-16 (drafted 31st OA)
    Puljujarvi 16-17: 39, 12-16-28 (drafted 4th OA – many were disappointed in these boxcars)
    Nylander 14-15: 37, 14-18-32 (drafted 8th OA)
    Pastrnak 14-15: 25, 11-17-28 (drafted 25th OA)

    Kostin is clearly several steps behind these guys at this point. His league play doesn’t really move the needle at all IMO.

  178. thehop says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    Happy Olympics Lowetidians!

    I cannot stand the Olympics. The only part about them I can get behind is the commitment required by (some) athletes to train and train clean for the better part of their lives.

    The IOC is a disgusting bureaucracy rife with corruption.

    The waste of resource and capital, both human and otherwise, associated with moving the venue every four years to a country that ‘earned’ the right to host is staggering. I urge anyone who is interested in seeing what I am ranting about to google ‘Olympic venue then and now’ or Olympic abandoned sites’.

    I could go on for the entire day about it…I won’t though.

    I hope the Canadian athletes are rewarded for their commitment and persistence but I wont spend a minute of my time, outside of this comment, to pay attention to what is going on.

  179. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    ArmchairGM: I agree with this, although your comment was “based on his play since the draft” he’s worth more than his draft position. Other than the WJC, I don’t agree. His league play has been unremarkable.

    AHL draft+1 numbers:

    Kostin 17-18: 39, 5-11-16 (drafted 31st OA)
    Puljujarvi 16-17: 39, 12-16-28 (drafted 4th OA – many were disappointed in these boxcars)
    Nylander 14-15: 37, 14-18-32 (drafted 8th OA)
    Pastrnak 14-15: 25, 11-17-28 (drafted 25th OA)

    Kostin is clearly several steps behind these guys at this point. His league play doesn’t really move the needle at all IMO.

    Are you aware of the Blues’ lack of an AHL team ? If not, read the link I copied. That has significantly impacted his opportunities in the 2nd half.

    You will see his numbers in new light then. Are you just looking at his boxcars only?

    I wouldn’t put him on Pastrnak’s level. But he is also a power forward type. They take a bit longer.

  180. Jaxon says:

    GMB3:
    Jaxon,

    I’d prefer Wahlstrom. Veleno’s biggest strength according to most scouting reports I’ve seen has been his playmaking ability and we have plenty of those. Wahlstrom has 15 goals in 15 games in the USHL, and I’ve read plenty of him having a great shot.

    I think one of the downfalls of this team is lacking shoot first guys

    That’s a very fair point.

  181. Jaxon says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    https://thehockeywriters.com/st-louis-blues-klim-kostin-ready/

    Will leave this interview here. If Maroon and a sweetener can get us Kostin I am all for taking that chance. He could be dynamite on Drai or McDavid’s line in 3 years.

    But I really doubt the Blues don’t covet him and think they got a steal.

    Of the St Louis “Big Four” I’d rather have Thomas or Kyrou (I’d throw in a 2nd rounder with Maroon to get one of Kyrou or Thomas). There are scouting reports that speak of Kostin having speed issues. And I think the Oilers need to speed up, and keep up with McDavid and company, not the other way.

  182. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Jaxon: Of the St Louis “Big Four” I’d rather have Thomas or Kyrou (I’d throw in a 2nd rounder with Maroon to get one of Kyrou or Thomas). There are scouting reports that speak of Kostin having speed issues. And I think the Oilers need to speed up, and keep up with McDavid and company, not the other way.

    I never said Kostin was the guy out of the Big 4 I rated highest I said none of them is coming here for Patrick Maroon.

    JimmyV asked what about Kostin so I said that would be a shocking.

    Don’t know what scouting reports you read but Kostin is an excellent skater.

    https://dobberprospects.com/klim-kostin/

  183. Harpers Hair says:

    Barzal with a 5 point night. Oh, the humanity.

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