Hello darkness, my old friend

by Lowetide

High among the things Oilers fans should be worrying about (along with the owner suggesting another rebuild and the club trading their 2018 first-round selection without lottery protection) is the hesitation to use Anton Slepyshev in a feature role this season. In the march toward April, giving the young Russian plenty of playing time should be a priority. He sure does score nice goals from left-wing, perhaps that’s a good place to start.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

THE CIRCLE GAME, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 3-3-0, goal differential 0 (6 points)
  • February 2017: 3-3-0, goal differential -1 (6 points)
  • February 2018: 1-4-1, goal differential -5 (3 points)

As has happened so many times this season, the Oilers are caught in a trap (oooo-oooo-oooo) and can’t walk out. No telling how far they fall at this point, pretty clear the disappointment of losing an entire season is settling in on the roster.

AFTER 55, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 21-29-5, goal differential -33 (47 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 29-18-8, goal differential +16 (66 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 23-28-4, goal differential -28 (50 points)

If the season ended today, Edmonton would draft No. 5 overall before the lottery. I will tell you it’s my opinion Peter Chiarelli won’t survive that outcome as general manager. Ending the season 15-10-2 gets the organization some air in terms of selling next season. Going 7-18-2? I honestly think ownership would have to make a change simply to restore fan faith in the product. Hell, maybe I’m alone on an island here and a bunch of biased fans are giving me their opinion, but from what Oilers Nation is sending me, this club is in a very difficult spot with the client base. Standing pat won’t be an option with a poor finish, in my opinion.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los AngelesAnaheimSan Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-4-1, three points in six games

Edmonton has seen this kind of start early in previous months, only to recover to my predicted number. Tough schedule ahead, but assuming this team loses five of the final eight games this month would be unwise based on its established past. Weird team this year.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Davidson went 23-16 in 18:04 together, 1-1 in GF. Went 8-10 against Huberdreau-Trochek-Malgin, this pairing led the other two with eight own-zone faceoffs. All three pairings had trouble transitioning the puck, but Nurse transports well and he used the wheels often in this game.
  • Klefbom-Russell went 19-15 in 17:01, 2-1 in GF, six defensive zone faceoffs. Klefbom got walked by Trochek on the PP (while playing with Davidson) and Russell backed in like a Trans-X truck at the loading dock five minutes from closing time, and it cost him. Russell also has a hitch in his giddyup passing the puck up to the forwards, Leon wanted to brain him, pretty sure. |Went 10-7 against the Trochek unit.
  • Auvitu-Benning were 14-15 in 11:25, just two own-zone faceoffs and 1-0 GF. Went 7-5 against McGinn-McCann-Mamin. Auvitu makes things happen, so for God sakes don’t use him on the power play! He hasn’t earned it!
  • Cam Talbot stopped 30 of 32 at even strength, .938. I’m not blaming him for the penalty kill any more this season. It is an abomination. Someone call the Catholic church!

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Slepyshev-Letestu-Kassian went 12-5, 1-0 GF together. I loved Slepy’s game, he needs to share the puck a little, though. Letestu made some nice passes and generally helped in less than eight minutes. Kassian is engaged and played well to my eye.
  • Caggiula-Khaira-Puljujarvi were 6-6 together, 1-1 GF. A nice goal by the trio, Khaira getting the puck back to the point while both wingers drove to the net looking for a tip. I’d like to see that group again, perhaps more playing time next game.
  • Maroon-McDavid-Strome were 25-19 (Maroon) and 18-17 (Strome) together, 2-0 GF. McDavid and Strome had some chem, enough for this line to return later in the week in my opinion. McDavid was 11-15 with 900 slashes against Trochek, 1-0 GF.
  • Lucic-Draisaitl-Cammalleri were 11-17, 0-1 GF together (Leon scored when with Maroon and McDavid) on the night. I’d like to see Puljujarvi replace Cammalleri on the line.
  • The penalty kill was awful.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

KLEFBOM

  • Todd McLellan: “Some big errors from individuals. I look at the fourth goal, we pre-scouted that, we knew it was coming, we talked about it, and we’re 18 seconds in when we’re fresh, and we get a chance to execute, one individual gets delinquent and misses his assignment, and that’s basically game over.” 

Oscar did look poor on the play, one of several moments where Edmonton didn’t have things hammered down on the penalty kill. The team is playing kid forwards a lot on the PK now, maybe they’ll develop and maybe the won’t develop. It’s a mess. At 5×5, I like this team and I sure as hell believe in Klefbom’s future. If the Oilers trade the Swede for 10 cents on the dollar, you’re looking at further erosion of the top-end young talent. Enormous mistake.

LUCIC

People want him traded or bought out but the options are poor. A buy out is so severe it isn’t worth it, and trade options would involve bringing in other problem deals. Would you deal Lucic for Bobby Ryan?

TALBOT

Lots of rage in the cage for Talbot after last night, I’m no longer buying. The penalty killers resemble Monty Python’s race for people with no sense of direction now, complete imbecilic behaviour. Easy to blame the goalie, and he fell on his sword last night. I’d like this team to try something else, anything else.

  • I’m no longer blaming Talbot for the addled penalty kill
  • The penalty kill can go to hell.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. CFL free agency will take up much of the morning but we’ll have time to discuss last night’s Oilers loss. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic! Oilers at the deadline and that power play.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL free agency, half of Canada’s NHL cities are on fire.
  • Davis Sanchez, CFL this week. Former CFL player turned media mogul guides us through free agency.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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OriginalPouzar

Mr. D.:
Unfortunately with the quality of players in the tourney the medal will be tarnished.

Not to me.

Mr. D.

Unfortunately with the quality of players in the tourney the medal will be tarnished.

OriginalPouzar:
Slovenia beats the US and Slovakia beats “Russia” – great start to the tournament.

Go Canada!

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– I wonder what a Cody Ceci would cost?He’s available. He doesn’t play the PP much, some other D on that team has that locked up. He’s young, mobile, 2-way: not best year this year

– He’s RFA, so due for an increase from $2.8, which Ottawa appears loath to want to add salary

– I’d say he’s be our 2nd RHD.Not in the Faulk division of RHD, but better than what we have

– Is this good?:

Klef-Larsson
Nurse-Ceci
Sek-Russel
Benning/Davidson

I wouldn’t say it is good but it is better. Was also thinking if Columbus misses the playoffs they might be open to a shakeup.

Savard might thus also come cheaper than before

OriginalPouzar

Slovenia beats the US and Slovakia beats “Russia” – great start to the tournament.

Go Canada!

OriginalPouzar

Mr. D.:
Why would they? This team is going nowhere at warp stillness. Edmonton is a great hockey town when winning. Bet you there isn’t a player who doesn’t want out of Dodge of the north.

Again, from all accounts, it was very important for Russell to be in or close to Western Canada and that is where he landed.

The post I responded to said there was no logical reason why Phaneuf/Gaboirk can be traded by Lucic and Russell can not be and I was responded to the inaccuracy in that post.

I’m not saying they would (although Russell probably would), both Lucic and Russell currently have an outright veto on any trade that neither Phaneuf nor Gaborik had.

None of us know what is in either of their heads and they both could very well say no to a trade, in particular one to about as far a way from their chosen destination as possible. I do think that Lucic would waive for the right destination but Russell may have zero desire to do so based on his stated desires when signed.

ArmchairGM

VOR:
Thinking about the Draft – 12 – what current math tells us

I am not recommending this, merely showing how a GM might use some of the known math.

Most mock drafts have the Oilers picking 5th OV and Columbus picking 16th OV. If the Oilers were going to trade down what would fair value look like – the Oilers’ first for Columbus’ first, second and third rounders. In terms of eventual outcomes the Oilers should have a very slight overall edge. But the math tells us the Oilers payoff lies further in the future than the Blue Jackets. 5 OV is likely to play this next year in the NHL and be a regular by draft +2. 16th OV is likely not to play for 2 years and likely not to be a regular until draft +3 or draft +4.

There needs to be both a risk premium because of the deterioration in consensus from 5 to 16 and a delay premium for waiting longer to see a benefit from the draft. We can calculate the sort of value that would be required. We need a player drafted in the late second or early third and tracking towards the NHL next year, in other words a genuine prospect say Vitali Abramov for sake of argument.

So the trade is the Oilers first round pick for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, and Vitali Abramov. But what if the Oilers were to move up in the lottery? Even have +1 OV?

Maybe I’m missing something, but strictly going by expected number of NHL games is only half the equation. Shouldn’t you be looking at the quality of those games? One superstar player (#1 OA) is worth far more than three or four depth players – even though those players may collectively play more NHL games throughout their careers. Most second and third-round picks end up being “replacement-level” players – the kind you can pick up through college or UFA signings quite easily.

Kinger_Oil.redux

russ99:
Nicholson’s comments are very interesting.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/disappointed-oilers-ceo-nicholson-hopes-team-adds-top-defenceman/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

First, I welcome the message about acquiring a top defenseman, we can’t stand pat and improve. Karlsson? Doughty?

Second, it’s really odd that a CEO talks about specific player moves, so is Chia fired, marginalized or is Nicholson becoming the public face since segments of the fanbase question/deride everything the GM says.

– I think it’s bush league actually: telling everyone what you’d like to get… Price just goes up

– MacT used to say dumb things like this.

– What does Bob Nicholson know about NHL hockey player personel? Sure he got to preside over all-star selections for Olympics as president of Hockey Canada. He’s a manager, seemingly well respected in hockey circles, whose supposed to be the voice of reason in the OBC house, and conduit into Katz. Not talking about hockey players or roster composition

russ99

Nicholson’s comments are very interesting.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/disappointed-oilers-ceo-nicholson-hopes-team-adds-top-defenceman/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

First, I welcome the message about acquiring a top defenseman, we can’t stand pat and improve. Karlsson? Doughty?

Second, it’s really odd that a CEO talks about specific player moves, so is Chia fired, marginalized or is Nicholson becoming the public face since segments of the fanbase question/deride everything the GM says.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– I wonder what a Cody Ceci would cost? He’s available. He doesn’t play the PP much, some other D on that team has that locked up. He’s young, mobile, 2-way: not best year this year

– He’s RFA, so due for an increase from $2.8, which Ottawa appears loath to want to add salary

– I’d say he’s be our 2nd RHD. Not in the Faulk division of RHD, but better than what we have

– Is this good?:

Klef-Larsson
Nurse-Ceci
Sek-Russel
Benning/Davidson

Don’t forget Valentine’s Day!

Mr. D.

Why would they? This team is going nowhere at warp stillness. Edmonton is a great hockey town when winning. Bet you there isn’t a player who doesn’t want out of Dodge of the north.

OriginalPouzar: Logical reason is that both Lucic and Russell currently have a full veto and niether Gaborik nor Phaneuf did.Gaborik had no trade protection and Phaneuf had to submit a list of 12 teams he could be traded to.

Both Lucic and Russell could just flat out say no.

Nix:
VOR,

If we miraculously (or predictably) do win Dahlin in the draft, I’d entertain a package from Columbus including:
-Their first (Id take Wahlstrom/ McD’s future sniper)
-A #1 puck moving righty by the name of Seth Jones
-Some sort of decent LW prospect (Milano? Jeez, I dunno..)
…and go from there.

We already have one generational player. Willis wrote an article elegantly explaining why you should almost always take the best player over a collection of plugs for major holes, but am not convinced in this case. It may be time to seriously consider what happens if the balls fall our way again. It’s growing more likely by the day. A year or so from now, after hopefully shedding awful contracts, we could be talking:

Drai-McD-Wahlstrom
Prospect-RNH-Pulju
Benson-Strome-Yamo
Khaira-?-Pakarinen

Nurse-Jones
Klefbom-Larsson
Jones-Bear

Not bad and one penalty killing righty 4c away from balance. That top line would challenge for leagues best and we would see Drai-McDaddy magic nightly. Worth 21m a year on the same line imo. The top four would be finally properly slotted and very solid I feel. And the rest of the lines/ bottom pair have real promise. My pipe dream.

That is a huge haul. If we win the lottery and you are hypothetically dealing with Columbus you do 1st overall for Seth Jones + 16th overall.

Would Columbus do it? Doubtful because Werenski (L) and Jones (R) are their long-term top pair. Adding Dahlin (L) to move Werenski down a pairing does less for them.

If the consensus top pick were an elite C then I think it would be a different story and Columbus considers it, so they can run elite C and Dubois down the middle.

As it is, they moved their non-elite 1C (Johansen) for Jones so any offer for Jones would have to trump that.

I think we’d be lucky to get Jones + their 1st for Dahlin because of their current set-up on D.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: Taxes. Winning.

From accounts being close to Western Canada was a primary consideration.

Never say never, however, there is a very good chance he would say no to Tampa.

Oilander

I’m an oilers fan since the early 80s. I watch every single game. I don’t live in AB. When I check the online foolishness its sometimes that: foolishness. I know, our team hasn’t performed. But don’t lose your minds please. Don’t run good players out of town because you’re impatient. The parity in this league now is ridicuous. Almost like 28 contenders.

Just relax. I know. THEYRE LOSING MAAAAN. I know. I know. I’m not in town. And i’m not losing my mind. We played the games and we lost. It’s ok. We will play them again next year.

Theyre not as good as they were last year and not as bad as they are this year. Relax. You have to play the games.

Dont freak out or call for people’s heads. It will be ok. Stop publishing media suggesting you are an insane obsessed psychotic town. I know that’s not true even though I have never lived there. Relax.

I know, it sucks sometimes. But we were guaranteed nothing. Ever. We deserve nothing. We will persevere.

Foege Foegele Torpe

JimmyV1965: For sure. Trading Lucic and Russell is pure fantasy on my part.

Mine too

BornInAGretzkyJersey

VOR — Thanks for your recent draft series. I seek it out and enjoy the read.

Nix

VOR,

VOR:
Thinking About the Draft – 12-3

I think 5th OV if Columbus has the pick probably gets at bats (9 games) in the NHL in 2018-2019 with a real chance of regular minutes in 2019-2020. If they get drafted by the Oilers it is a certainty.

In my though experiment I am going to use the following:

http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

So pretend this season winds down and at the trade deadline Columbus is still drafting 16 and the Oilers are picking fifth.

The Oilers are proposing a swap of picks with no lottery protection. What would fair compensation look like?

From Schuckers we know that the difference in expected games between 5th and 16th is 328. So minimally the Oilers need to get draft picks back worth that many games. Columbus’ 2nd and third equal 346 so that is near perfect value, except 5 is likely to play in the NHL before 16. I have already suggested substituting Vitali Abramov for the third to cover off that cost of trade.

But Columbus wants a shot at Rasmus Dahlen. What should the Oilers charge them for the chance? What is the difference between a 1OV and a 5OV? 176 expected games – an early pick in the third round. Columbus is picking late in the third so the Oilers propose a the following deal. The Oilers current 5th OV and a lottery chance for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, Abramov (65th OV) and Columbus’ first in 2019. The current math says the Oilers come out ahead as a team though the odds are Columbus gets the better player.

I’d think both teams would be tempted. But both would know they were gambling and could lose big. But without Schucker’s math we’d have no idea where to start.

The question is, using current math, can we increase the Oilers odds of this deal working out in their favour?

If we miraculously (or predictably) do win Dahlin in the draft, I’d entertain a package from Columbus including:
-Their first (Id take Wahlstrom/ McD’s future sniper)
-A #1 puck moving righty by the name of Seth Jones
-Some sort of decent LW prospect (Milano? Jeez, I dunno..)
…and go from there.

We already have one generational player. Willis wrote an article elegantly explaining why you should almost always take the best player over a collection of plugs for major holes, but am not convinced in this case. It may be time to seriously consider what happens if the balls fall our way again. It’s growing more likely by the day. A year or so from now, after hopefully shedding awful contracts, we could be talking:

Drai-McD-Wahlstrom
Prospect-RNH-Pulju
Benson-Strome-Yamo
Khaira- ? -Pakarinen

Nurse-Jones
Klefbom-Larsson
Jones-Bear

Not bad and one penalty killing righty 4c away from balance. That top line would challenge for leagues best and we would see Drai-McDaddy magic nightly. Worth 21m a year on the same line imo. The top four would be finally properly slotted and very solid I feel. And the rest of the lines/ bottom pair have real promise. My pipe dream.

VOR

Thinking About the Draft 12 – 5

I will say this simply. The math unequivocally says from the end of the second round on draft BPA as determined by their NHLE. Multiply Dmen by 2 to get a comparable NHLE to forwards. Spend one pick every draft 3 round and later on a goaltender.

Now you are doing current best practice.

Up next post 13 – a new math of the draft.

VOR

Thinking About the Draft 12-4

Say the Oilers execute the trade from 12-3

Now they are picking 16, 36, and 47 – 3 picks in the top 50, how do they use them.

The math says top 4 pick forwards (their position adjusted NHLE and NHLP makes forwards by far the better call, on average, 5-15 take D because their adjusted NHLE and NHLP is greater than average for forwards in these draft positions.m 16-30 take forwards.

In the latter half of the first round take high scoring burner forwards – at this point there will be smaller guys available who can really play. This is where you arb the size bias that is so common in the NHL draft. Small talented forwards consistently fall to the back half of the first round.

Both picks n the second round go to picking RD. You choose based on best remaining NHLE if they are also +skaters. You are now, in the sweet spot for finding NHL dmen.

Done right the Oilers add 4 high end prospects in one draft.

JimmyV1965

Pescador: I am 100% certain that all 3 of Lucic, Russell & Sekera will be back next season.
Klefbom 30/70
Nuge 40/60
Best case scenario the Oilers are a playoff bubble team next season with everything resting on the value contracts & players with less then 2 seasons worth of NHL experience.
I will say that if they find the right coach to take over for TMac,
they could turn this boat around, right now I can only see the iceberg

For sure. Trading Lucic and Russell is pure fantasy on my part.

VOR

Thinking About the Draft – 12-3

I think 5th OV if Columbus has the pick probably gets at bats (9 games) in the NHL in 2018-2019 with a real chance of regular minutes in 2019-2020. If they get drafted by the Oilers it is a certainty.

In my though experiment I am going to use the following:

http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

So pretend this season winds down and at the trade deadline Columbus is still drafting 16 and the Oilers are picking fifth.

The Oilers are proposing a swap of picks with no lottery protection. What would fair compensation look like?

From Schuckers we know that the difference in expected games between 5th and 16th is 328. So minimally the Oilers need to get draft picks back worth that many games. Columbus’ 2nd and third equal 346 so that is near perfect value, except 5 is likely to play in the NHL before 16. I have already suggested substituting Vitali Abramov for the third to cover off that cost of trade.

But Columbus wants a shot at Rasmus Dahlen. What should the Oilers charge them for the chance? What is the difference between a 1OV and a 5OV? 176 expected games – an early pick in the third round. Columbus is picking late in the third so the Oilers propose a the following deal. The Oilers current 5th OV and a lottery chance for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, Abramov (65th OV) and Columbus’ first in 2019. The current math says the Oilers come out ahead as a team though the odds are Columbus gets the better player.

I’d think both teams would be tempted. But both would know they were gambling and could lose big. But without Schucker’s math we’d have no idea where to start.

The question is, using current math, can we increase the Oilers odds of this deal working out in their favour?

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: Russell wants (wanted) to be in or as close to Western Canada (Alberta) as possible.It doesn’t get any further away in the NHL than Tampa.

Taxes. Winning.

StixMalone

Realized I was watching a PVR show lol

StixMalone

Phaneuf to the Kings for Gaborik

Late to the show. Lol

Harpers Hair

JimmyV1965:
Phaneuf wouldn’t waive his NMC to go to Vegas, but he does to go to LA. Interesting. Is it the city or the team? I’m sure we could get Lucic and/or Russell to waive for Tampa. That frickin Yzerman is too smart for that though. Damn him!!!

Phaneufs wife is a Hollywood actress.

OriginalPouzar: Except is so damn bloody freezing at Barclays center – I went to the Oilers game there on November 5 (or so) and I’ve never been colder in my life….

Horrible rink for hockey. Meant the borough of Brooklyn

OmJo

OriginalPouzar: Russell wants (wanted) to be in or as close to Western Canada (Alberta) as possible.It doesn’t get any further away in the NHL than Tampa.

How is Calgary doing for LD?

Foege Foegele Torpe

flyfish1168: I just want to get rid of those NM and NTC contracts. PC never learnt a thing on why he was fired in Beantown.

I am 100% certain that all 3 of Lucic, Russell & Sekera will be back next season.
Klefbom 30/70
Nuge 40/60
Best case scenario the Oilers are a playoff bubble team next season with everything resting on the value contracts & players with less then 2 seasons worth of NHL experience.
I will say that if they find the right coach to take over for TMac,
they could turn this boat around, right now I can only see the iceberg

OriginalPouzar

Flames lost but both ANA and LAK both lost in regulation – useless on the coast!

Gayfish

So how long til the Klefbom for Dal Colle trade is announced?

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965:
Phaneuf wouldn’t waive his NMC to go to Vegas, but he does to go to LA. Interesting. Is it the city or the team? I’m sure we could get Lucic and/or Russell to waive for Tampa. That frickin Yzerman is too smart for that though. Damn him!!!

Russell wants (wanted) to be in or as close to Western Canada (Alberta) as possible. It doesn’t get any further away in the NHL than Tampa.

JimmyV1965

VOR:
Thinking about the Draft – 12 – what current math tells us

I am not recommending this, merely showing how a GM might use some of the known math.

Most mock drafts have the Oilers picking 5th OV and Columbus picking 16th OV. If the Oilers were going to trade down what would fair value look like – the Oilers’ first for Columbus’ first, second and third rounders. In terms of eventual outcomes the Oilers should have a very slight overall edge. But the math tells us the Oilers payoff lies further in the future than the Blue Jackets. 5 OV is likely to play this next year in the NHL and be a regular by draft +2. 16th OV is likely not to play for 2 years and likely not to be a regular until draft +3 or draft +4.

There needs to be both a risk premium because of the deterioration in consensus from 5 to 16 and a delay premium for waiting longer to see a benefit from the draft. We can calculate the sort of value that would be required. We need a player drafted in the late second or early third and tracking towards the NHL next year, in other words a genuine prospect say Vitali Abramov for sake of argument.

So the trade is the Oilers first round pick for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, and Vitali Abramov. But what if the Oilers were to move up in the lottery? Even have +1 OV?

I don’t think the 5th overall plays in the NHL this year. The top 4 yes. Trading down from 5 could be a real interesting strategy. The gap between 5 and 10 is certainly slim. You’re the man VOR!!!

OriginalPouzar

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
ArmchairGM,

Playing out of Brooklyn isn’t that bad. The problem is the arena is not built for hockey and there is no parking at Barclays. The tailgating at Nassau was what fans loved so much.

Except is so damn bloody freezing at Barclays center – I went to the Oilers game there on November 5 (or so) and I’ve never been colder in my life….

OriginalPouzar

thehop: If Phaneuf and Gaborik can be traded, there is no logical reason why Lucic or Russell couldnt go.

Do not trade Klefbom.

Logical reason is that both Lucic and Russell currently have a full veto and niether Gaborik nor Phaneuf did. Gaborik had no trade protection and Phaneuf had to submit a list of 12 teams he could be traded to.

Both Lucic and Russell could just flat out say no.

JimmyV1965

Phaneuf wouldn’t waive his NMC to go to Vegas, but he does to go to LA. Interesting. Is it the city or the team? I’m sure we could get Lucic and/or Russell to waive for Tampa. That frickin Yzerman is too smart for that though. Damn him!!!

VOR

Thinking about the Draft – 12 – what current math tells us

I am not recommending this, merely showing how a GM might use some of the known math.

Most mock drafts have the Oilers picking 5th OV and Columbus picking 16th OV. If the Oilers were going to trade down what would fair value look like – the Oilers’ first for Columbus’ first, second and third rounders. In terms of eventual outcomes the Oilers should have a very slight overall edge. But the math tells us the Oilers payoff lies further in the future than the Blue Jackets. 5 OV is likely to play this next year in the NHL and be a regular by draft +2. 16th OV is likely not to play for 2 years and likely not to be a regular until draft +3 or draft +4.

There needs to be both a risk premium because of the deterioration in consensus from 5 to 16 and a delay premium for waiting longer to see a benefit from the draft. We can calculate the sort of value that would be required. We need a player drafted in the late second or early third and tracking towards the NHL next year, in other words a genuine prospect say Vitali Abramov for sake of argument.

So the trade is the Oilers first round pick for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, and Vitali Abramov. But what if the Oilers were to move up in the lottery? Even have +1 OV?

HT Joe

OmJo: https://youtu.be/YRpelkGAZhA

He actually scored on that play.

I hate the Flyers. What a rotten franchise… I hope they never win the cup.

(I never hated them really until the game when they injured McDavid, but this is a thorough heap of fuel for the fire *spits*)

flyfish1168

OmJo: Lol I would do Lucic, Russell and our 1st for Hall in a heartbeat.

I just want to get rid of those NM and NTC contracts. PC never learnt a thing on why he was fired in Beantown.

OmJo

thehop: If Phaneuf and Gaborik can be traded, there is no logical reason why Lucic or Russell couldnt go.

Do not trade Klefbom.

This is the Edmonton Oilers of the National Hockey League that we are talking about, friend.

Logic has nothing to do with anything. Klefbom must go, the writing is on the wall and soon will be in the Journal and Sun for good measure.

OmJo

flyfish1168: the mythical 3-1Lucic, Russell and Sekera for Hall

Lol I would do Lucic, Russell and our 1st for Hall in a heartbeat.

maudite

This isn’t hindsight because it was as obvious then as it is now Pete should have been canned by Nicholson when he laid out his contract plan for Russel…

“So we sign Russel for at least million too much for at least a year too many with a no move or trade clause!! He’ll cover for sekera then when reg is back we will have a ton of left defense again!!! Then we will fire eberle to the sun as although that like played pretty decent in the playoffs as far as even strength time was concerned he was a bit snake bit…yeah sure his scoring was pretty close to drain when he did play with macdavid but whatever!!!”

ArmchairGM,

Playing out of Brooklyn isn’t that bad. The problem is the arena is not built for hockey and there is no parking at Barclays. The tailgating at Nassau was what fans loved so much.

The Islanders name is specific to the Long Island identity.

When the Isles became a franchise the Rangers demanded money and tried to spite them. Going on to form a dynasty during Big Brother’s 50 yr drought was a big deal.

Brooklyn not ideal but tolerable. Manhattan intolerable.

thehop

OriginalPouzar:
Not a standard “deadline deal” of a pending UFA for futures but a big hockey trade went down – Phaneuf to LAK:

Phaneuf and Thompson for Gaborik and Shore. Sens retain 25% of Phaneuf salary.

If Phaneuf and Gaborik can be traded, there is no logical reason why Lucic or Russell couldnt go.

Do not trade Klefbom.

jtblack

ArmchairGM: No, you still don’t get it. A players “draft year” is the season prior to being eligible for the draft. Rasmus Dahlin is in his draft year right now. Draft + 1 is where Yamamoto is now, Jesse is in his draft + 2. Make sense?

Bahaha. Yes you are correct. I am embarrassed

flyfish1168

Sighduck: I’ve got it!!! Lucic for Hall!

the mythical 3-1 Lucic, Russell and Sekera for Hall

ArmchairGM

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): You are missing the entire context of the franchise. If the Islanders played in Manhattan there would be riots and a dissolution of the franchise. The moniker fitting has nothing to do with it In this case it is 100% Long Islanders.

There are oil men in Calgary. The Oilers could play in Calgary and the moniker could still fit.

Don’t tell any Islander fans what you just said. They are a small, but diehard fanbase. And that would make their blood boil.

I guess I should have framed it as a question (I thought I had, but I guess not!) because I was wondering what the history was surrounding the name. People are laughing at the Islanders for playing out of Brooklyn, but I don’t see what the problem is. Obviously they aren’t going to Manhattan, I was just trying to make the point.

Sighduck

OmJo:
Pescador,

Watched it in slow motion (sorry, should mention that the video focuses more on the goal than the “great hit of the game”) it’s hard to tell if the back of his head makes complete contact with the ice. From the front it looks like his head bounces off the ice but the back angle I think it might not be as bad as it looked – at least I hope it isn’t.

And looking now as I type this, he returned in the 3rd period.

On a side note, the Devils are really not that great at sticking up for #4. Maybe they need Lucic out there, patrolling the ice.

I’ve got it!!! Lucic for Hall!

maudite

No excuse on the coaching front this year imo. It’s been an abject failure to adapt. It also has the continuation of taking euros behind the woodshed and punishing them more so for mistakes then try hard north American boys which has been a team issue since rim low days.

We keep stacking up glory day oilers in upper management and our problems still seem to remain the same.

To fix this we added a gm that is generally poor at contract negotiating and cap management and over pays for declining years on a team that is pretty stacked in young talent requiring escalated contracts…

The day we hired Mact as gm and didn’t even interview nil is the day I gave up on this team finally. Aside from watching the odd Connor show I am not following every game aside from reading this blog still.

If they deal klefbom I guarantee it will be another insanely stupid I’m hindsight loss.

Lander and Omark on the Olympic team!!! Going to have a hard time not cheering for them over Canada.

OmJo:
Chris Ryan
‏Verified account @ChrisRyan_NJ
5m5 minutes ago

Apparently since Taylor Hall missed most of the second period, he’s just going to play all the shifts in the third. Have seen him out there with a few different lines

Scores to tie the game. Beast.

Nix

-Be Kris Russell.
-Be in the D zone with time and space.
-Be aware others are frustrated with the constant chip up the boards to the opposing team.
-Slow the game to a crawl in order to make DAMN SURE you make a good outlet pass.
-I mean really, really take time to be absolutely positive you make the right play.
-Bring all momentum to a screeching halt just to be 100% certain…
-Chip it up the boards to the opposing team.