G63 2017-18: Oilers at Sharks

The deadline is done, the job openings are known to all and now it’s a horse race. This Edmonton Oilers team is so blessed with elite talent, finding the complementary pieces should be easy. That is the lesson of this season, friends. There was a time in this city when we talked about someday, when the best talent in the league would once again wear the blue and orange. We are here. Now that the Aces and Kings are on the roster, the Oilers are stumbling on the sixes and sevens and nines. Time to find some helpers. Starting now.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

DIONNE WARWICK’S SAN JOSE, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 3-10-0, goal differential -12 (6 points)
  • February 2017: 6-6-0, goal differential -2 (12 points)
  • February 2018: 5-7-1, goal differential -6 (11 points)
  • February 28, 2018: Edmonton 3, NY Islanders 1 (Source)
  • February 2017 schedule completed

Amazing recovery from this year’s group in February, final game could give the team more points in February than any other McLellan crew (in two more games than last year’s Oil). This swing through California has been half daredevil, half sunshine. Will we see the same tonight?

AFTER 62, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 22-34-6, goal differential -46 (50 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 33-21-8, goal differential +17 (74 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 27-31-4, goal differential -29 (58 points)
  • February 26, 2016: Anaheim 2, Edmonton 1 (OT) (Source)
  • February 26, 2017: Nashville 5, Edmonton 4 (Source)

There was always a gigantic opportunity for this year’s Oilers to regress toward something respectable. A win tonight would put this group at 60 points after 63 games. That’s disappointing overall would mark a nice spike in fortunes after Valentine’s Day.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los AngelesAnaheimSan Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-7-1, 11 points in 13 games 

In the last five games, Edmonton is 4-1-0. That’s a nice little run, wonder if they can keep it going? I think Todd McLellan will coach to win right through the end of the season. Six weeks is a long time to push for wins with no hope of the postseason, though.

CURRENT 50-MAN

The Oilers have all kinds of room now for waiver pickups through the end of the season. I’ll have an item up at The Athletic today or tomorrow focusing on the members of this list who are bound for moving on. Nine unrestricted and 11 restricted free agents means 40 percent of this roster is vulnerable even before the Nugent-Hopkins and Klefbom trades. I kid. Probably. Possible lines, when all are healthy and available (next fall):

  • Nuge—McDavid—Slepyshev
  • Aberg—Draisaitl—Puljujarvi
  • Lucic—Strome—Yamamoto
  • Caggiula—Khaira—Kassian

NHLE FORWARDS

  • It’s been awhile since I updated this, thought it might be a good idea with the new hires coming in. 30 points is a good number.
  • Kailer Yamamoto’s number has spiked since our last look, good to see. I know he isn’t everyone’s favorite prospect but those boxcars are in a terrific league.
  • Kirill Maksimov and Tyler Benson are showing well, encouraging numbers for both men. Benson cooled off from a strong start but is still hovering around 30 points.
  • Those three names (KY, Maksimov and Benson) are the prominent forward prospects at this time. I like Safin and hope he joins the list next 30.
  • New addition JD Dudek is well down the list, Tyler Vesel would be a more likely summer signing. Dudek may spike next year (as a senior), suspect Edmonton will give him another year with Boston College before signing him (or not).

NHLE DEFENSE

  • Ethan Bear is playing some good hockey and the numbers suggest his offense has come with him from junior. Bob Stauffer mentioned a possible cup of coffee with the big club by season’s end.
  • Filip Berglund is emerging as a solid SHL defender. Averaging 16:52 a night and posting some crooked numbers. We may not see him in the fall, but 2019 might be a different story.
  • Dmitri Samorukov has spiked nicely through the season, he’s a legit prospect.
  • Caleb Jones has had an uneven season, I think he’ll progress more next season. I’m not sure if he is lagging behind Bear but the underlying numbers aren’t as pristine. Sometimes that’s luck and I remain bullish on the young man.

RAY SHERO LIKES REDUCED PRICES

  • Shero: “This was more of a ‘last 10 minutes’ basically. Patrick Maroon we know well, he was on our list. But with any player that was available, there’s a certain price point asset-wise that we’re comfortable with. That price seemed to come down, and that third-round pick is in 2019, so we have 16 months to recoup that, or if Anaheim re-signs Adam Henrique, we can get their pick.” (NJ.com)

The price on Maroon fell in the waning moments of deadline crunch and that happens. Could Peter Chiarelli have gotten more for him Saturday? Maybe, but it would have been hard to anticipate all of the deals stacked up right at the end. I received a mountain of feedback re: My Maroon article at The Athletic yesterday. Most of it defending the general manager and expressing satisfaction with the return. I felt expecting a first-round selection was unrealistic but a 2019 third rounder (for me) was not enough. From my item at The Athletic:

  • The prospect in the deal would not rank among the 20-best in Edmonton’s rather modest pipeline at this time, meaning the organization has a good chance (25-to-32 percent from the draft pick odds) of getting no return on Maroon’s rental value. Chiarelli entered trade deadline day with a significant trade chip and a chance to change the narrative. If there was a deal out there that could have changed the conversation, he was unable to find it. Source

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, short show (done at 11:30 for le hockey) today, 10 this morning on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, The Athletic and TSN. Trade deadline, who won?
  • Darren Dreger, TSN. Where do the contenders go from here?
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Drilling down on the McDonagh and Kane deals.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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619 Responses to "G63 2017-18: Oilers at Sharks"

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  1. Munny says:

    The bag was apparently full for the intermission

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    At least the officials didn’t have any part of that goal…….

    1) ref stops the puck

    2) ref doesn’t call an egregious dangerous play

  3. Dicky94 says:

    That’s bullshit.

  4. Gerta Rauss says:

    Remenda losing his shit over the no call

  5. LMHF#1 says:

    Are you fucking kidding me?

    And as usual the Coach just sits there?

  6. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Wow non-call.

    Shame.

  7. Munny says:

    Gotta be open season on sharks now

  8. Pouzar says:

    I’ve honestly seen it all.

    It’s well past conspiracy now.

    What a FUCKING DISGRACE.

  9. OilClog says:

    That’s disgusting Oilers should dispute the game.

  10. Munny says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Remenda losing his shit over the no call

    That’s why I don’t mind him

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Another Shark boards Sekera just after.

    You awake Milan?

  12. VOR says:

    Gayfish: I hear you, but what do you think Lucic’s honest bf% is? I have a hard time believing it’s below 15% when he is only 6’3 and is 240lbs.

    You know in 45 years of coaching I have never asked an athlete I’ve worked with how much they weigh, suggested they lose weight, or bulk up. Nor have I measured their %body fat. That would be paying attention to the wrong thing. I am concerned with their performance not their physique.

    I know most of you are going to think there is a correlation between the two things and you may even be right. But as a coach I can do a lot more to improve their performance than I can to change their body so that is where I focus my efforts. You pick the battles you can win.

  13. flyfish1168 says:

    If I was Benning I would fire the puck at that ref.

  14. Munny says:

    How does Donkey not score there? What a brilliant release pass from Pavelski

  15. Pouzar says:

    Lemme guess…more pacing and shoulder twitches from TMc?

  16. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    TMc—if you don’t draw a fine tonight by ripping the referee a new a-hole—this is your Last Stand.

  17. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR: You know in 45 years of coaching I have never asked an athlete I’ve worked with how much they weigh, suggested they lose weight, or bulk up. Nor have I measured their %body fat. That would be paying attention to the wrong thing. I am concerned with their performance not their physique.

    I know most of you are going to think there is a correlation between the two things and you may even be right. But as a coach I can do a lot more to improve their performance than I can to change their body so that is where I focus my efforts. You pick the battles you can win.

    How about off season training? Luc trained with a football player. I would think a skating coach might be a better idea.

  18. StixMalone says:

    Refs are horrendous

  19. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Wilde,

    – It could be noise: but the all-time worst at home then: how do you explain that?

    – Agree it doesn’t look good on coaching staff, but certainly a strange spit.

    – But that they are so elite on the road, clearly they do have a system that works, at least sometimes

    – Anyway, calling it primarily on coaching based on this, I don’t buy it…It’s not the whole story

    No. It is just a single series of flipping identical white and black coins and you are being distracted by the colour of the coin.

  20. Scungilli Slushy says:

    That’s a penalty?

  21. Ribs says:

    Is the conspiracy thing real? Starting to actually wonder here…

  22. Pouzar says:

    LMAO….they call that…just unfuckingreal.

  23. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    The fix is in… What complete and utter horseshit

  24. OilClog says:

    These refs are going need to use the bag on witness protection lol

  25. flyfish1168 says:

    interferes with Leon’s progress and Leon gets the call. My Oiler glasses are strong tonight

  26. Jaxon says:

    Auvitu has to let that shot go faster.

  27. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    That’s not even a cross-check by Leon. FFS. Fuck you NHL. Your officiating is so fucking bad.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    At least the officials made that call on the incident away from the play – I mean they wouldn’t want to directly cause a goal.

  29. Melvis says:

    That dirty bent fucker. No.24. Jeff Skilliter. Needs to be called out. Seriously. Youtube. Twitter. No mercy.

    Fuckin bastards.

  30. Wilde says:

    McLellan, please.

    Anything.

  31. npanciroli says:

    Reffing is a disaster.

  32. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Nothing to lose, message time for the hacks IMO. There is no reason to allow it now with no response.

  33. npanciroli says:

    I want someone to just take the suspension. Murder a Shark player on the ice.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Really begin to wonder if I’m just whiny or Stevie Wonder is reffing

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: No. It is just a single series of flipping identical white and black coins and you are being distracted by the colour of the coin.

    Sure, if you want to completely ignore the actual differences between playing at home and playing on the road.

  36. Pouzar says:

    TMc isn’t upset you AssHat

  37. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Did tmac even lift his head?

  38. OilClog says:

    With Lucic clearly checked out and season lost, healthy scratch him don’t play him another shift.

  39. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Regardless what happens the rest of tonight– this officiating has entirely changed the complexion of this game. Goal should not have counted, Sharks would not have any of this momentum from a power play, either. Total horseshit.

    Usually I am pretty reserved when it comes to reffing but seriously, wtf.

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    If the oilers could just have the cachet that every player on every California team has with the refs they’d win Lord Stanley

  41. Jaxon says:

    Benning still in discomfort. We might actually see Bear play next game.

  42. jzed says:

    The boarding non-calls, the blatant interference, knocking the guy down while he tries to pursue the puck, you know, the one Larsson gets called for all the time? Looch should have Pavelski’s health on his mind now. Khaira bull in china shop mode. Fuck the NHL.

  43. Gerta Rauss says:

    npanciroli: Murder a Shark player on the ice.

    Not a very private place for a murder

  44. Munny says:

    Whatever

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    That’s a weak one on Talbot – damn.

  46. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, if you want to completely ignore the actual differences between playing at home and playing on the road.

    There is no difference between home and away for the penalty kill.

  47. StixMalone says:

    Well that was a whiff….

  48. Pouzar says:

    Fuck sakes

  49. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    OilClog:
    With Lucic clearly checked out and season lost, healthy scratch him don’t play him another shift.

    Lucic’s problems are entirely between his ears. Imo of course.

  50. Gerta Rauss says:

    Looks like it was tipped

    *edit-maybe not

  51. Dicky94 says:

    Does that count for Lucic?

  52. BONE207 says:

    Melvis:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    No, you rock.

    I was meaning to ask.Have you ever considered doing some hockey related photography?I’ve often carried a point and shoot on manual settings while taking long walks – literally shooting from the hip on occasion. It’s a way of shaking things up, finding different perspectives, making really bad pics technically, but sometimes stumbling over the ineffable.

    It’s those varying perspectives that had me thinking about a “different”kind of hockey picture and the possibility of a decent painting emanating from the experiment.

    Melvis…

    Are you the guy that used to be in the Dos Equis commercials? You have lived my man and it’s always a pleasure (if not a challenge) understanding what you’ve experienced. Keep up the great narrative.

  53. Munny says:

    Gerta Rauss: Not a very private place for a murder

    Suspension might be a bit optimistic too

  54. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, if you want to completely ignore the actual differences between playing at home and playing on the road.

    What? That’s another red herring. The Oilers’ PK overall is the worst in the last 30 years. The worst. That’s home and away. Because it’s worse at home we’re all fixating on it when it’s just the worst overall, whereas home vs. away is more likely to be affected by randomness.

    I recommend everyone to read “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Taleb

  55. Wilde says:

    Anyone else see the zebra with the pick play on Cammaleri?

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Regardless what happens the rest of tonight– this officiating has entirely changed the complexion of this game. Goal should not have counted, Sharks would not have any of this momentum from a power play, either. Total horseshit.

    Usually I am pretty reserved when it comes to reffing but seriously, wtf.

    It’s up to the players to respond. Lost season and you’re going to get punked as well like the good old days? HOTT needs to get hot.

    Nurse and Khaira as well, time to establish their reps more as players that kick ass without question when called for.

    Pak and Aberg might gain some bonus points easily here. If Slepy dropped them and used his 220 he might cement a spot, even if he doesn’t win.

  57. npanciroli says:

    Well of course the game has turned. I wouldn’t feel motivated when the refs are constantly against me.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: There is no difference between home and away for the penalty kill.

    Disagree in various ways.

  59. OilClog says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: Lucic’s problems are entirely between his ears. Imo of course.

    Which is why a early get away and soul hike for 6-8weeks would be perfect. Come back, hire a skating coach, state a desire to play in Montreal or Arizona. Vancouver even

  60. exoilinxs says:

    Reffing makes hockey unenjoyable and frankly it is ruining the game. I dont even know what a penalty is anymore.

  61. StixMalone says:

    Not liking Looch on first line….

  62. Gerta Rauss says:

    hoo boy…we’ve gone off the boil a bit here…

  63. VOR says:

    Scungilli Slushy: How about off season training? Luc trained with a football player. I would think a skating coach might be a better idea.

    I think you could try it but I am suspicious you are seeing a processing or attention problem not a lack of fitness or poor technique.

  64. Pouzar says:

    Game gone to absolute shit on a fucking BS non-call that leads directly to a goal.
    Fuck this fucking league all to hell.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Atta boy Matt – too bad the officials wouldn’t let you protect yourself after the fact.

  66. jzed says:

    Nurse should glide by for an invite

  67. LMHF#1 says:

    Why is this being left up to Benning?

    Get off your old, lazy ass 27 and do something for a change.

  68. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    exoilinxs:
    Reffing makes hockey unenjoyable and frankly it is ruining the game. I dont even know what a penalty is anymore.

    Someone said, refs don’t call penalties they manage the game – so they can manage it one teams direction if they choose.

  69. StixMalone says:

    Missing Kass and Maroon. Looch better cream someone next shift….

  70. OilClog says:

    Benning shouldn’t have to be the one doing that, good thing the room culture has changed in 3 years.

  71. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    VOR: I think you could try it but I am suspicious you are seeing a processing or attention problem not a lack of fitness or poor technique.

    Agreed. He can keep up when he wants to, but he’s seems to not want to do anything these days.

  72. DBO says:

    Where is 6 million dollar man Lucic. How does Benning have to be the one to step to Kane. Wtf. Seriously. I’m not against Lucic like most but you can’t make or take a pass and can’t hit the broad side of the barn. Get fricken involved already.

  73. Ribs says:

    If Lucic doesn’t tune up a Shark this game I will be pretty disappointed. With Maroon gone and Kassian out, he is the deterrent.

  74. Ribs says:

    I will say, good on Benning for sticking up for himself. That is a solid response.

  75. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Boycotting the NHL for the rest of this one. They stole this game. Fix is in for Cali in the playoffs. Silver lining is Calgary is going to suffer.

  76. exoilinxs says:

    Still pissed about the non call on Benning.

  77. npanciroli says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    It’s been awful this year. Worse than ever minus last years playoffs.

  78. VOR says:

    I should be clear I am using processing and attention in their neurobiological sense. Processing refers to the rate at which a signal moves through your brain. Attention is a function of how many neurons join the party, the strength of the signal if you like. Both processing rate and strength of attention can be trained.

  79. Munny says:

    Sharks wanna be your back door man.

  80. npanciroli says:

    Time to really goon it up.

  81. exoilinxs says:

    FU NHL

  82. Dicky94 says:

    I’ve seen enough of Sekera this year.

  83. Pouzar says:

    exoilinxs:
    Still pissed about the non call on Benning.

    +1

    Game turned.

    Fuck this league.

  84. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Well to be fair that was a horrible shift by that line. So many botched plays.

  85. Munny says:

    Lucic has no idea what Remenda did to him

  86. LMHF#1 says:

    You suck Lucic.

  87. Melvis says:

    And don’t forget Kassian is out on a glaringingly obvious seen but uncalled trip/skewfoot. I haven’t been this hot all year.

  88. Pouzar says:

    Seriously Looch Retire.

  89. StixMalone says:

    Runaway now. Train derailed right off the tracks……

  90. npanciroli says:

    Honestly, fuck you NHL. Joke league.

  91. LMHF#1 says:

    The ballad of 27. Miss, pout, GA.

    What a horrible period.

  92. Munny says:

    There were calls and non-calls like the Benning one, and periods like this when the team lost it’s way in October.

  93. Wilde says:

    This is peak potency career killing material.

  94. npanciroli says:

    I don’t blame the team at all.

  95. flyfish1168 says:

    To nights refs should be suspended or fired for incompetence.

  96. StixMalone says:

    Looch will never score this season anymore so sit him off top line

  97. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR: I think you could try it but I am suspicious you are seeing a processing or attention problem not a lack of fitness or poor technique.

    You would know better but at 6’3 238 is not natural size. He needs to lose mass and probably change his diet as he mentioned because he is putting on weight where as everything I have read about hockey from coaches to players says they lose quite a bit of weight in season.

    100% cardio and skating and drop unnecessary muscle and learn to eat lighter.

  98. DBO says:

    So what ever happened to the fighting, smack down esque push back. They aren’t making playoffs. This team is taking runs at your teammates. Wtf. Where is the fight, the pushback, the nastiness. Want to build team chemistry. Stand the fuck up for each other!!!

  99. Melvis says:

    I suspect they’re still totally distracted by the non officiating.

  100. Munny says:

    It’s like they are experiencing and re-experiencing the nightmare of refereeing from the Anaheim playoff series and can’t get over it. This team needs a shrink so bad.

  101. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):

    I recommend everyone to read “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Taleb

    – That’s an all-time must read book

    – Oil PK is not all-time worst, just the worst in the league this year

    – But 56% at home, thats by far the all-time worst: to conclude this is on the coaches I don’t know…

    – And they have far more PK’s on the road than at home

  102. Pouzar says:

    Disgrace that Benning is the only guy doing anything.

  103. Dicky94 says:

    We need Kassian in this game. Proud of Benning right now.

  104. StixMalone says:

    Benning at least showing some fight. Rest of the team are pussies

  105. DBO says:

    Matt Benning gets it. who else has heart? Seriously.

  106. GMB3 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: You would know better but at 6’3 238 is not natural size. He needs to lose mass and probably change his diet as he mentioned because he is putting on weight where as everything I have read about hockey from coaches to players says they lose quite a bit of weight in season.

    100% cardio and skating and drop unnecessary muscle and learn to eat lighter.

    I highly doubt he didn’t work with a skating coach. Just because you saw him doing off ice stuff with TO doesn’t mean he didn’t hire a skating coach.

    He also would be like 6’5 if he had a neck. So there’s that lol.

    Can’t watch the game tonight. Very interested to see this hit on Benning

  107. Pouzar says:

    StixMalone:
    Benning at least showing some fight. Rest of the team are pussies

    Yup…I would stay up if there was even a remote chance of redemption but it’s not happening.

    Good night.

  108. DBO says:

    Never thought letting Hendricks go would mean so much. But that bugger would crash through the boards for his team. Don’t see that this year.

    Heart transplant needed. Geez. Maybe Hall wasnt the problem. Who knew. ……………… everyone. I need a drink.

  109. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    DBO:
    Matt Benning gets it. who else has heart? Seriously.

    Starts at the top with tmac. Should have fucking threw sticks on the ice. Who gives a shit we are not going anywhere this year anyways.

  110. DBO says:

    I mean another drink. Or three.

  111. Scungilli Slushy says:

    GMB3: I highly doubt he didn’t work with a skating coach. Just because you saw him doing off ice stuff with TO doesn’t mean he didn’t hire a skating coach.

    He also would be like 6’5 if he had a neck.So there’s that lol.

    Can’t watch the game tonight. Very interested to see this hit on Benning

    Lower back cross check a few feet out and Benning manages to turn his head and hits face and shoulders in pretty hard. Not horrible but kind of dirty and definitely dangerous.

    A few shifts later somebody runs Sekera same way.

    ** If there is any reason to pay 6 large for Lucic this is when he needs to earn his pay.

  112. Ribs says:

    Scungilli Slushy: You would know better but at 6’3 238 is not natural size. He needs to lose mass and probably change his diet as he mentioned because he is putting on weight where as everything I have read about hockey from coaches to players says they lose quite a bit of weight in season.

    100% cardio and skating and drop unnecessary muscle and learn to eat lighter.

    Caught this tidbit the other day….

    “Yeah it can. I know I have to do that but I’m a big-boned person. When we were in L.A., we did a test where they’d give you your bone mass. A regular one was eight pounds for an athlete and I was 11 pounds,” Lucic said of the dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) scan, which measures bone density. “That’s my natural build. I have changed my diet. I can change my shape. I worked hard on it this summer and felt my legs were going at camp and the start of the season.

    “I have to get down to 225. It’s a matter of will and want.”

    I’m still rooting for Lucic as a hockey player. When he’s going he can be a force out there. I think if the coach can specialize his role a bit, he could still be effective.

  113. Wilde says:

    Lucic, Kassian, and whoever, instead of doing anything, just forced Benning to stand up for himself over and over.

    In a 4-1 game that was within reach before the hit.

  114. npanciroli says:

    Way angrier than I should be in a game this late in a lost season.

  115. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – That’s an all-time must read book

    – Oil PK is not all-time worst, just the worst in the league this year

    – But 56% at home, thats by far the all-time worst: to conclude this is on the coaches I don’t know…

    – And they have far more PK’s on the road than at home

    I thought I saw that it is the worst PK in the last 30 years. That is both home and away put together.

    I do agree that part of this year’s story is awful luck. But I think last year had some good luck, too.

    That is why I am hoping for improvement in process. If process improves results hopefully follow.

  116. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    GMB3,

    His quote recently, about an average athlete being an 8/10 on a biomass density scale, and he was an 11. That speaks volumes. Vor was right in his post a couple hours ago about the correlation between fitness level (/appearance) and results. (See: Brodeur, Marty; Kessel, Phil, etc).

  117. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde:
    Lucic, Kassian, and whoever, instead of doing anything, just forced Benning to stand up for himself over and over.

    In a 4-1 game that was within reach before the hit.

    Bit hard for Kassian to do something when he sits out injured.

    Will the MSM finally call out Lucic though? And I mean beyond Willis. Like Matheson, Jones etc.

  118. Lowetide says:

    After Two

    4-1 SJS (4-0 SJS this second period)
    35-32 Corsi for 5×5 SJS (25-16 Sharks in the second)
    24-16 Shots SJS (Sharks 17-4 in the second)

  119. Georges says:

    godot10: There is no difference between home and away for the penalty kill.

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): What? That’s another red herring. The Oilers’ PK overall is the worst in the last 30 years. The worst. That’s home and away. Because it’s worse at home we’re all fixating on it when it’s just the worst overall, whereas home vs. away is more likely to be affected by randomness.

    I recommend everyone to read “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Taleb

    What are you two talking about? And godot, this isn’t the first time you’ve said this, even after I went through the numbers when you talked about flipping a coin in NYC and EDM.

    Do you really think that the PK results at home and away can be explained by chance?

    Have you tried to recreate those results through a simulation? How often were you successful? The test statistic for the difference between home and away PK proportions going into this game?

    z=4.6

  120. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Bit hard for Kassian to do something when he sits out injured.

    Will the MSM finally call out Lucic though? And I mean beyond Willis.Like Matheson, Jones etc.

    Kassian’s aura should be there.

  121. jzed says:

    Wow, Lucic standing and watching, he must be playing hurt…..

  122. Wilde says:

    Puljujarvi is like the Nurse of forwards.

  123. Munny says:

    Pujo from Lyle Oberg

  124. Lowetide says:

    Puljujarvi scored.

  125. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Can we trade Lucic for the aura of Lucic?

  126. jzed says:

    Small victories

  127. HT Joe says:

    JP!!

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Beauty plays by both Strome and Aberg to set up Jesse.

  129. Pretendergast says:

    If Lucic didn’t have somebody poking his voodoo doll this would be a tie game!

  130. StixMalone says:

    Nice too see Aberg with a beautiful assist

  131. Wilde says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    Can we trade Lucic for the aura of Lucic?

    Will the puck go in the net, or just the puck’s aura?

  132. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Georges,

    Hmm? Saying the fixation on home vs away split is leaving out that the PK as a whole has been bad. The home/away split is interesting.

    I have yet to see someone point out the difference in the deployment that shows they are doing it differently at home. If you did, and I missed it, sorry. What are you saying it’s explained by? I am saying the PK being awful overall is not (just) chance.

  133. npanciroli says:

    Aberg looks like a player. Kind of reminds me of Slepyshev when I couldn’t see why they had Cagguila above him in lineup. Skill, speed, and a shot.

  134. jzed says:

    Nurse , keeping putting them prone on the ice, pretty sure Barclay didn’t drop the gloves with Nurse, not the other way around. Sleppy needed to one time that, useless pass into the corner from the dlot

  135. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    The puck wont cross the line, but oh the swagger.

  136. Munny says:

    Good heavy stick by Lyle in his own end

  137. Pretendergast says:

    JJ carrying that 4th line

  138. Munny says:

    Lucic gonna need the chick from Insidious to lift his Remenda curse.

  139. npanciroli says:

    Pretendergast,

    I feel bad for him.

  140. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny:
    Lucic needs the chick from Insidious to lift this curse.

    lol…he’s trying hard, he really is, which isn’t helping things…lol….

    you just have to laugh at this point

  141. HT Joe says:

    Lucic looked pretty fast there, but then gave the puck away… small victories

  142. Wilde says:

    I like Aberg, he’s good with the puck and we’re short on that.

    There’s a line/pairing on this team for him to be a positive possession player, probably

  143. jzed says:

    Wonder how the Looch pep talk goes over on the bench

  144. Munny says:

    Butt end or elbow on CMD. No point in calling it, really. I mean what’s in it for the League to protect McDavid?

  145. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Disagree in various ways.

    There is no difference between a home PK and away PK. Provide some differences. Line changes are not ordered like even strength since there is always faceoff and there are no icings. So one always has the PK’ers that you want on the ice.

  146. HT Joe says:

    High stick to McDavid’s face?
    Ref standing there just watching?
    No call?

    Yeah, about right.

  147. Munny says:

    Maybe the League would be a lot happier if McDavid got Benning’ed a couple of times a game? I mean concussions made Crosby a better player and the League a better league because of it.

  148. Pretendergast says:

    Lucic could have a hattrick. If the guy gets a goal this game i’ll call it a win.

    Edit: JUST SHOOT haha

  149. prefonmich says:

    Lucic might want to try stopping in front of the net to score a goal. Just a thought.

  150. Munny says:

    Lucic passes up another prime shooting spot

  151. prefonmich says:

    I think the refs forgot to put their contacts in this game. They are in great position to make the right calls and are even looking at the correct play but are totally blind to what is happening out there.

  152. Munny says:

    A good shift from L1

  153. pitlickdinner says:

    it’s more than 50/50 that Lucic sits by season’s end, right?

  154. Sighduck says:

    At the very least I think Aberg looked good and Rattie serviceable.

  155. Fgary says:

    This ia why my name is fgary

  156. Oil2Oilers says:

    At this time I no longer want Lucic off the top line and 1st PP. He should be healthy scratched.

  157. exoilinxs says:

    I wish TMac would throw some sticks or something. Absolute garbage officiating.

  158. Gerta Rauss says:

    Well, they had a nice first period

  159. StixMalone says:

    A few positives tonight but a lot more negatives. Refs being the main culprit in the game as usual….

  160. Gayfish says:

    VOR: You know in 45 years of coaching I have never asked an athlete I’ve worked with how much they weigh, suggested they lose weight, or bulk up. Nor have I measured their %body fat. That would be paying attention to the wrong thing. I am concerned with their performance not their physique.

    I know most of you are going to think there is a correlation between the two things and you may even be right. But as a coach I can do a lot more to improve their performance than I can to change their body so that is where I focus my efforts. You pick the battles you can win.

    There is a football player (rb) I once had who moved really well, was decently fast, etc. Playing at the NCAA div 2 level. Great athlete, but ate McDonalds every day, and was about 5’10, 250. He was also among the strongest on the team in squalt, deadlift, and bench press. Point is that it is possible to have a shitty diet, and yet perform at a high level.

    I have never met someone in my life who had great diet, and excercise program and wasn’t in fantastic shape. Physique informs performance, I’m absolutely positive of it. No, you would never train an athlete to look good, the way you would a body builder, but you can tell that a guy with a Kessle or Penner build has more to give. On the flipside, there are very good physiques that have poor diet, but the phsyique doesn’t excuse the diet.

  161. HT Joe says:

    I suspect the reffing won’t get any better until the Oiler’s head coach calls them out.

    And there is literally no reason for TMac not to call out the refs (the calls are already slanted against the Oilers).

    But I think we can all safely predict that TMac will once again lack the backbone required to call out the refs. We wait.

  162. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    They completely disappeared for half that game.

    Brutal call for sure but it was 1-1 after that and San Jose took it to them.

    Shouldn’t be surprised they damn near blew back to back 2 goal leads with 30 seconds left the last two games.

    Need to be more resilient than that regardless of shitty reffing

  163. GMB3 says:

    Gayfish: There is a football player (rb) I once had who moved really well, was decently fast, etc. Playing at the NCAA div 2 level. Great athlete, but ate McDonalds every day, and was about 5’10, 250. He was also among the strongest on the team in squalt, deadlift, and bench press. Point is that it is possible to have a shitty diet, and yet perform at a high level.

    I have never met someone in my life who had great diet, and excercise program and wasn’t in fantastic shape. Physique informs performance, I’m absolutely positive of it. No, you would never train an athlete to look good, the way you would a body builder, but you can tell that a guy with a Kessle or Penner build has more to give. On the flipside, there are very good physiques that have poor diet, but the phsyique doesn’t excuse the diet.

    You can still be in good shape and look like Phil Kessel. Other players have commented on how freakishly strong he is

  164. npanciroli says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Agreed, but it also has to be incredibly disheartening to be screwed every single game by the league or the refs.

  165. GMB3 says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    At this time I no longer want Lucic off the top line and 1st PP. He should be healthy scratched.

    It would send a message.

    The Lucic from the Bruins days was a good hockey player by physically dominating teams during his shifts. Not seeing as much of that from him these days

  166. JimmyV1965 says:

    Can’t wait for the post-game presser. Tmac will bring it tonight.

  167. Melvis says:

    Oilers take 8 penalty minutes. Sharks take 6.

    Toronto is 1-13 when referee Graham Skilliter is overseeing the game. They’ve also got a beef with this clown. So there you go. Saskatoon clown at that.

  168. Georges says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Georges,

    Hmm? Saying the fixation on home vs away split is leaving out that the PK as a whole has been bad. The home/away split is interesting.

    I have yet to see someone point out the difference in the deployment that shows they are doing it differently at home. If you did, and I missed it, sorry. What are you saying it’s explained by? I am saying the PK being awful overall is not (just) chance.

    The boring technical stuff:

    Home:

    GA 38
    TS 88
    PK% 56.8

    Away:

    GA 14
    TS 103
    PK% 86.4

    Overall:

    GA 52
    TS 191
    PK% 72.8

    Null hypothesis: Oilers overall PK% is 72.8 and there is no difference between the home and away results.

    Test stat:

    z = (.864 – .568) / (.728 * (1 – .728) * sqrt( 1/88 + 1/103)) = 4.6

    The test stat is too large assuming the null is true.

    https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat504/node/77 is a good reference.

    As for the “what are you saying it’s explained by”, I have no idea, I’m not the one paid $3M a year to figure stuff like that out. But it’s not randomness. Randomness is very, very unlikely to produce a difference that large.

    The part about it’s not the coaches fault is tough to accept when the players in one context execute at a league leading level and, in another, execute at a historically bad level. It can’t be personnel; coaches have the personnel. They should have been able to identify and iron out wrinkles in the at home psychology or systems or execution… before it became the monstrous, self-fulfilling thing that it is now. I mean, if they can’t see why it’s way different or help the players work their way through it, what are they there for?

    It’s easy for players to lose confidence in a coaching staff that has no answer for a problem like this.

  169. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    npanciroli,

    Oh ya I 100% agree. I ate the conspiracy theory sandwich back in December, but at some point someone will snap.

    Just like Hall snapped all those years ago on Clutterbuck

    I don’t condone such things but the gap is too large at this point. Fix is in.

  170. Georges says:

    Melvis:
    Oilers take 8 penalty minutes. Sharks take 6.

    Toronto is 1-13 when referee Graham Skilliter is overseeing the game. They’ve also got a beef with this clown. So there you go. Saskatoon clown at that.

    Where did you get the 1-13 stat? That’s for the season or all-time?

    I’ve been meaning to look into referee impact on game outcomes. Interesting.

  171. Melvis says:

    Georges,

    Damn. I usually forget the links. It’s on Sporstsnet and it’s this season – 2018 anyway. I have to check my history.

  172. Gayfish says:

    GMB3: You can still be in good shape and look like Phil Kessel. Other players have commented on how freakishly strong he is

    See paragraph 1.

  173. Georges says:

    Melvis:
    Georges,

    Damn. I usually forget the links. It’s on Sporstsnet and it’s this season – 2018 anyway. I have to check my history.

    Thanks, Melvis. That’d be cool to find an effect that size over a wider group of referee-team pairings. The League would notice something like that, wouldn’t they? I’d think Vegas would…

  174. Younger Oil says:

    What I’ve been saying for years is that there isn’t a fix against any specific team, but in general games are officiated in order to keep the games close, rather than uphold the rules of the game.
    It makes games closer, and therefore more “entertaining” for the average fan.

    After last year’s playoffs it was so abundantly clear that this is the case that it absolutely ruined the NHL for me. I’ve watched maybe three games in their entirety all year, and have cancelled my cable subscription. It’s just not worth the time investment if the referees are picking when to enforce the rules of the game. It’s honestly no better than WWE at this point.

    The referees influence the results of the game more than the best players on the ice, and that is absolutely inexcusable. It’s not a sport anymore, it’s an entertainment event.

  175. godot10 says:

    Georges: The boring technical stuff:

    Home:

    GA 38
    TS 88
    PK% 56.8

    Away:

    GA 14
    TS 103
    PK% 86.4

    Overall:

    GA 52
    TS 191
    PK% 72.8

    Null hypothesis: Oilers overall PK% is 72.8 and there is no difference between the home and away results.

    Test stat:

    z = (.864 – .568) / (.728 * (1 – .728) *sqrt( 1/88 + 1/103)) = 4.6

    The test stat is too large assuming the null is true.

    https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat504/node/77 is a good reference.

    As for the “what are you saying it’s explained by”, I have no idea, I’m not the one paid $3M a year to figure stuff like that out. But it’s not randomness. Randomness is very, very unlikely to produce a difference that large.

    The part about it’s not the coaches fault is tough to accept when the players in one context execute at a league leading level and, in another, execute at a historically bad level. It can’t be personnel; coaches have the personnel. They should have been able to identify and iron out wrinkles in the at home psychology or systems or execution… before it became the monstrous, self-fulfilling thing that it is now. I mean, if they can’t see why it’s way different or help the players work their way through it, what are they there for?

    It’s easy for players to lose confidence in a coaching staff that has no answer for a problem like this.

    There are 32 teams, and probably a few decades worth of data on home and away PK’s. You a picking one data pair out of several thousand.

  176. Georges says:

    godot10: There are 32 teams, and probably a few decades worth of data on home and away PK’s.You a picking one data pair out of several thousand.

    There have been 30 teams for the past 16 seasons. 31 this season.

    The probability of a z-score of 4.6 or larger is about 1 in 400,000.

    So we’d have to play almost 14000 seasons of 31 team hockey to observe one team with a home and away difference this large. If you want to take a two-tailed probability, then we’d only be looking at around 7000 seasons. I guess it depends how comfortable you are with those odds.

    This also applies to your scenario of flipping 10 heads in NYC and then hopping on a plane and taking that same coin and flipping 10 heads in EDM. Assuming independent trials with the same fair coin, the outcome in each city is 1 in 1024 and one outcome followed by the other is about 1 in a million. You’d have to have a million people do the two city coin-flipping thing to expect one of them to replicate your feat.

  177. JimmyV1965 says:

    I have a question for the coaches out there. To what extent does a team take on the personality of their coach. This doesn’t have anything to with tactics or strategy, but if the coach is always passive and never gets fired up, does that filter through to the players. Do they become accepting of losses and bad reffing?

  178. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Georges,

    Thanks.

    I think my two differing responses were comingled.

    Some posters said home awful road good means it must be the players, not the coaches.

    These same posters say this year is due to bad luck. So which is it then?

    I said what is so different about home vs road. If it is NOT random between home vs road by definition it is the system, i.e. coaching. If they aren’t coaching it differently home vs away and the players are executing what they are told to do., then
    However improbable it may seem the home/road split is determined primarily by randomness. Does not matter how unlikely the stats say this is. This is a major outlier., yes. But still possible.

    That is part one.

    Part two is that as a whole the pK is the worst over the past 30 years. Now I am ignoring home/road splits. How much of that is luck and how much is systems. The eye test here matches the system theorists. A lot of high danger chances against and a lot of quick lateral passes through the diamond allowed. Yes., some luck is always imvolved, but for me the bulk of the blame for the special teams disaster is on the coaches. The PKers are not that different year over year–except Talbot.

    If you are an ‘it’s the players’ theorist then you are really blaming management’s roster choices.

    So where are you on the overall picture? That’s the question I have., because trying to parse home vs road is a fun exercise but is a red herring, in my opinion, because it’s gotta be primarily random unless we can identify an actual execution or strategy difference.

  179. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ribs:
    I should just link to that entire Lucic article…

    http://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-milan-lucic-facing-big-problems-in-todays-nhl

    It is a good read.

    He is aware which is good. He mentioned being big boned but also mentions it’s 3 pounds difference. Ovechkin had his crappy year or two trying to play at over 230, came in 10 lb+ lighter this year and is back in form. Caps players mentioned he looked much leaner, must have become too comfortable.

  180. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    sorry for the run-on-sentences and typos. I am out running errands and on phone.

  181. Melvis says:

    Georges,

    I’ve kinda noodled around with this stuff since the first thing I learned in the music business. You fly 2 tons of backline LA to NYC as excess baggage (free) – instead of air cargo (expensive) – by palming a couple of guys a hundo at UA, AA, Delta cargo whatever. And if you’re doing box office as a road manager at the now gone Spectrum in Philly, or wherever – expect a promoter’s bagman to come in and scoop a pile for an off shore numbered account. Just like the scene in Casino.

    This shizz is as old as the hills. If your Arnold Rothstein and you want to fix the ’19 world series, bribe some of the players. But where’s your insurance?

    The lowest paid guys on the field. The umps. To my knowledge, they were never mentioned. I think it’s nearly impossible they were entirely ignorant of the shenanigans.

    And then there’s Pete Rose. He’ll never get into the Hall of Fame. Yet Tochet, et al received little more than a tap on the wrist in comparison in ’07. And now he’s a coach. Go figure.

    Some studies have suggested one person in 11 will never steal, two always will, and the remaining eight can go either way depending on circumstances, environment, risk/reward. etc. The odds aren’t good if you can’t get caught or hung out to dry.

    And gambling, these days is huge. Needless to say.

  182. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Ribs:
    I should just link to that entire Lucic article…

    http://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-milan-lucic-facing-big-problems-in-todays-nhl

    It is a good read.

    This is fine and all. Glad our MSM might possibly be softening on stars in slumps. But this is so gentle and lets Lucic drive the narrative, which is fine. But it isn’t really calling him out like they used to do with other players. Let’s see if they stick to the kid gloves or get the knives out.

    For the record i hope they keep it classy and don’t run him out of town like they did some others.

  183. Georges says:

    godot10: There are 32 teams, and probably a few decades worth of data on home and away PK’s.You a picking one data pair out of several thousand.

    OK, knowing you shouldn’t put too much faith in the normal distribution and that, in life, outliers are more common than the normal predicts, I had another look at the PK data on nhl.com. It goes back to 1979-80. 38 seasons. 994 teams.

    – no team has a home-away difference as large as the 17-18 Oilers; this team is an outlier
    – the closest is the 06-07 Oilers; they had a home PK of 80% and a road PK of 89%, so, not even close

    7 teams did much worse on the road than at home, enough to be outliers in the other direction. This makes more sense to me somehow.

    – the 80-81 Wings were 85% at home and 65% on the road; they were the worst
    – more recently, this year’s Avalanche are 92% at home and 75% on the road

  184. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Georges: OK, knowing you shouldn’t put too much faith in the normal distribution and that, in life, outliers are more common than the normal predicts, I had another look at the PK data on nhl.com. It goes back to 1979-80. 38 seasons. 994 teams.

    – no team has a home-away difference as large as the 17-18 Oilers; this team is an outlier
    – the closest is the 06-07 Oilers; they had a home PK of 80% and a road PK of 89%, so, not even close

    7 teams did much worse on the road than at home, enough to be outliers in the other direction. This makes more sense to me somehow.

    – the 80-81 Wings were 85% at home and 65% on the road; they were the worst
    – more recently, this year’s Avalanche are 92% at home and 75% on the road

    So then they are coaching it differently at home is the only plausible other theory you could have?

  185. Georges says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): So then they are coaching it differently at home is the only plausible other theory you could have?

    It’s not plausible to say personnel.

    We’re not the worst PK team on record. We’re 16th worst out of 994 teams. All the teams that have done worse than us are from the 80s. 6 of them, including the worst at 68% overall, were LAK teams. All of them, it’d be fair to say, were bad teams in that era. And they were bad PK teams both at home and on the road.

    When you see bad home PK, bad road PK, bad overall PK, you think, OK, personnel, probably starting with goaltender.

    Last season’s Dallas team had a horrible PK, just a little bit better (74% vs. 73%) than where we were at going into last night. They were bad at home (76%) and bad on the road (72%). So, next season, they get a new goaltender, new defensemen(?), I don’t know. And a new coach. They’re a respectable 82% now.

    If the discrepancy is too high because of poor road PK, then it’s probably a sign of an immature team, making enough small errors on hostile ice to give up a systematic edge to their opponents.

    But no team has come remotely close to doing what we’ve done this season, i.e., allow the home PK performance to be so much worse than their road PK performance. Seeing it as a product of randomness is, I think, the exact wrong thing to do. It’s well outside what randomness allows, both in theory and practice.

    We’re 54th all time (out of 994 teams) on road PK. So it can’t be personnel either.

    I don’t know if it’s systems or coaching it differently but, yes, the coaches are responsible. No other coaching staff in the past 38 seasons have let the results go so far outside what randomness allows. Whatever the problem is, it’s real, not random, and it’s up to the coaches to figure it out, make adjustments, and bring the numbers back in line.

    Or it was up to them. They didn’t manage it well at all and this (along with the PP, another area where we can’t point the finger at personnel) is why we’re out of the playoff race so early.

    This is all there is to learn from this season. There’s no way the GM can come back with this HC. There’s no way the locker room feels good about their chances to compete for the Cup with McLellan in charge. Can’t make the right adjustment. Can’t give his players an edge. Too much to not believe in by now.

  186. Georges says:

    Melvis,

    Now I’m really curious about referees. I’ll let you know what I find.

  187. GMB3 says:

    I watched the Jets-Preds game today. Nashvilles D is outstanding. Watching how all their D are so good with the puck. The headman passes. McDavid would have 50 goals if he had those D getting him the puck

  188. OriginalPouzar says:

    Disappointing end to the 3-game California trip.

    Its disappointing that the officials became a factor in the game and chanced the entire game (blocking the puck around the boards and then the egregious missed called). Yes, the team did an awful job recovering from that play and the Sharks dominated from that point, however the officials did change the game. For shame.

    Nice to see Strome to Aberg to Puljijarvi for a goal – more of that please.

    Disappointing to have Talbot let in a very soft goal at a bad time and have a step-back game – less of that please – it does not help the narrative I’m trying to push.

  189. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3:
    I watched the Jets-Preds game today. Nashvilles D is outstanding. Watching how all their D are so good with the puck. The headman passes. McDavid would have 50 goals if he had those D getting him the puck

    I don’t know who the player is but the top priority this spring/summer needs to be a legit 1/2 right shot D with plus puck moving potential. A $4M plus left shot D salary will almost undoubtedly need to be moved and the damn Russell NMC may lead to the loss of a core player in Oscar Klefbom in order to make room for the needed 1/2RD. This will have the effect of making Nurse play tougher minutes next season which is a risk,

  190. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t know who the player is but the top priority this spring/summer needs to be a legit 1/2 right shot D with plus puck moving potential.A $4M plus left shot D salary will almost undoubtedly need to be moved and the damn Russell NMC may lead to the loss of a core player in Oscar Klefbom in order to make room for the needed 1/2RD.This will have the effect of making Nurse play tougher minutes next season which is a risk,

    But if he’s playing tougher minutes with a much better 1 RHD then it should even out, non? No vacuums here. That’d suck.

  191. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Georges,

    So essentially we used 2 different methodologies to arrive at similar conclusions.

    I said it isn’t personnel. It is coaching and luck.

    The home road split to me likely has a very large randomness component to it. You may disagree on that part. But I was saying those who are saying it is personnel are likely wrong.

    I place more randomness on the home road split and coaching on the overall issues.

  192. Professor Q says:

    Oh dear. McLellen got really snarky when questioned about the team’s response to Kane et al.

    Thought the response was fine. Spent more time defending that than talking about how Benning being unavailable to the play after being crosschecked had something to do with the goal (but at least mentioned it).

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: But if he’s playing tougher minutes with a much better 1 RHD then it should even out, non? No vacuums here. That’d suck.

    Potentially but I still have a bit of trepidation with Nurse being the full, without question #1 with:

    Nurse
    Sekera
    Russell

    I’d still much rather prefer the following:

    Nurse
    Klef
    Sekera

    I’d feel better if we knew that Sekera was going to be the pre-injury Sekera come the fall but we don’t know what his new level of play will be.

  194. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klef/Larsson
    Nurse/Rutta
    Sekera/Benning

  195. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Someone on this blog has posited that perhaps Todd was looking to stay on the right side of the officials for sake of his hirability in the offseason, knowing he’s done with the Oilers. I don’t know how he interacted with the refs in SJ, whether or not there was any reason to lash out before, but for me, I have run out of patience with this coach. Bewildering deployment aside, is there not one element that falls at the foot of the coach more than team character? We simply don’t know the mood of the room, so this is conjecture, in the end. But I try to think of the situations I have been in with coaches, comparables, when I felt like my coach wasn’t on side, its dispiriting. If it’s the case that he’s hedging for work next year than that’s pitiful, and he should be gone today. I mean he should be gone in the off-season by virtue of deployment, special teams, and as a means of properly evaluating the GMs roster, but none of that has me as hot as his reaction in scrum from last night.

  196. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges:

    As for the “what are you saying it’s explained by”, I have no idea, I’m not the one paid $3M a year to figure stuff like that out. But it’s not randomness. Randomness is very, very unlikely to produce a difference that large.

    The part about it’s not the coaches fault is tough to accept when the players in one context execute at a league leading level and, in another, execute at a historically bad level. It can’t be personnel; coaches have the personnel. They should have been able to identify and iron out wrinkles in the at home psychology or systems or execution… before it became the monstrous, self-fulfilling thing that it is now. I mean, if they can’t see why it’s way different or help the players work their way through it, what are they there for?

    It’s easy for players to lose confidence in a coaching staff that has no answer for a problem like this.

    – If you run the PK for McL whole tenure, there are some interesting take-aways.

    – For the first 2 years, Oil were middle of the pack, 80.9% total: 82.4% at home, slightly less away

    – Add in this year, and of course we are among the worst for three years

    – But going back to your findings on the 50% PK at home this year.

    – For sure the coaching staff has to figure out why they are playing different at home: are they trying to hard, letting the fans get to them, not as settled, trying to do too much, etc.

    – It has to be that the players aren’t executing the same way at home. And the coaches need to figure out why and solve. That and just some crazy-ass all-time bad luck

    – But this is different than arriving at the conclusion that the coach is sh%t. Coach has a PK system that has been at least average historically with different personel. They get it done and then some on the road. That’s not explained by poppy-cock flipping a coin bias, as your numbers assert

    – So they need to figure out what is happening that the same system produces such different results

    – And yes, they can’t just say: “wh$t the fuck”

    – No reason to believe that next year they won’t be at least average with coach, and learning

  197. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – If you run the PK for McL whole tenure, there are some interesting take-aways.

    – For the first 2 years, Oil were middle of the pack, 80.9% total: 82.4% at home, slightly less away

    – Add in this year, and of course we are among the worst for three years

    – But going back to your findings on the 50% PK at home this year.

    – For sure the coaching staff has to figure out why they are playing different at home: are they trying to hard, letting the fans get to them, not as settled, trying to do too much, etc.

    – It has to be that the players aren’t executing the same way at home.And the coaches need to figure out why and solve.That and just some crazy-ass all-time bad luck

    – But this is different than arriving at the conclusion that the coach is sh%t.Coach has a PK system that has been at least average historically with different personel.They get it done and then some on the road.That’s not explained by poppy-cock flipping a coin bias, as your numbers assert

    – So they need to figure out what is happening that the same system produces such different results

    – And yes, they can’t just say: “wh$t the fuck”

    – No reason to believe that next year they won’t be at least average with coach, and learning

    All this is true. But there is also a lot of room for luck to improve. You have said so for the possession stats– ie we are unlucky.

    I am saying we are also unlucky on the PK at home.

    If nothing else changes (personnel, coaching) the home PK will be much better next year. I would bet the farm on that.

  198. flyfish1168 says:

    The NHL today can right the ship by reviewing the intentional non-call and at the bare minimum fine Kane for that atrocious hit.

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