Grey Lagoons

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers played some good hockey last night, while also showing fans and management just how far there is to go (again) before contention is the new normal. Oscar Klefbom hammered the puck like a young Dion Phaneuf (well, maybe not that much) and some of those complementary wingers found the scoresheet. On the downside, Leon had a poor night and I think the Oilers need a backup goalie.

THE ATHLETIC!

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DANCE AWAY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 4-3-0, goal differential -3 (8 points)
  • March 2017: 5-1-1, goal differential +12 (11 points)
  • March 2018: 3-3-1, goal differential -1 (7 points)

The Oilers have been mostly watchable this month, of course McDavid shifts belong in the HHOF upon completion. Two weekend games against the Florida clubs offers its own challenges.

AFTER 70, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 27-36-7, goal differential -44 (61 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 37-24-9, goal differential +27 (83 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 30-35-5, goal differential -33 (65 points)

The Oilers have 12 games left now, there’s not much news left to tell but it’ll be nice to see the full puzzle (this season’s puzzle is from Clementoni and entitled “Poe’s Murders in the Rue Morgue”). A more wretched season I cannot recall.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-2-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 3-3-1, 7 points in seven games

Not to toot my own horn but the last few months have come in around my reasonable expectations. I think the club grabs three points from the four-game road trip out east, all three after the weekend in Florida.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Bear were 16-11 in 12:18, 1-1 GF and 9-8 shots (4-4 HDSC). Both men showed well with the puck, Klefbom as the hammer and Bear with some striking outlet passes. Let’s all calm our tits here, but Ethan Bear is looking good as a raw rookie. Went 10-6 against Meier-Tierney-Lebanc.
  • Nurse-Larsson went 13-22 in 17:42, they were the top pairing by time and by opponent. Were 5-11 in shots and 2-6 in HDSC. Went 5-11 against Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi, the most dangerous of San Jose’s lines.
  • Russell-Sekera were 5-11 in 11:34, 3-7 in shots and 1-1 in HDSC. Were 2-7 against Hertl-Coutuer-Boedker line. Man Sekera isn’t playing a bunch. Lordy. Russell blocked a shot with his hand, say NO if someone says ‘do you want to see what Kris Russell’s hand looks like?’ at work today. It’ll be awful, is my guess.
  • Al Montoya stopped 36 of 40, .900.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Lucic-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi looked good in possession and had some looks. Lucic hit a post and had a hitch in his giddyup, Jesse Puljujarvi thinks the nets are 60 feet high and Leon turned over the puck three heartbreaking times. I like the line but that was a tough night. Were 6-7 and 0-2 against the Hertl-Coutuer-Boedker trio.
  • Nuge-McDavid-Aberg were 14-16 in 16:55, 2-0 in GF. Just 4-3 in HDSC, mostly against Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi. I like Nuge and McDavid together, would love to see the giant Finn on the wing.
  • Cammalleri-Strome-Pakarinen didn’t get much done but the line itself is as mixed a bag as one could construct. The trio went 6-10 in 9:31, 1-6 in HDSC. Strome hit a post and was robbed in overtime after Nuge sent a brilliant pass to him in the slot. The wingers didn’t get a lot done, although I do like Pakarinen on the penalty kill.
  • Caggiula-Khaira-Kassian had an eventful evening, it began with a beautiful goal. Kassian’s pass to Caggiula was the key, brilliant bit of business. Line went 8-14 in 11:25, 3-9 in shots and 1-3 in HDSC. The line had six defensive zone faceoffs, compared to just one for the Strome line. McLellan likes this trio, can’t blame him.

NUGE FOR HOFFMAN

Mark Spector has a fine article up today about Pierre Dorion scouting the Oilers. Spec speaks of Nuge as being the target, Mike Hoffman the possible return. I wrote about scoring rates by wingers with McDavid back in December (here) and the truth is everyone performs at a pretty good level. I’m sure Nuge would also score in the range of the names I mention in the piece, and Hoffman might cash even more. I don’t like the idea of giving up Nuge, would hope there’s another deal to be made here. Spec’s assessment does seem to make sense though. Nuge is signed for three more years, Hoffman for two. It’s my belief the Oilers would be giving up too much in a one-for-one, which fits the Peter Chiarelli trade model. I’m a big fan of Hoffman on McDavid’s wing as an idea, would prefer the payment come via the draft pick. I also wonder if the target might be Jesse Puljujarvi.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

I’m down with the flu, ladies and men. You’re going to have to endure an upgrade in the host position on the Lowdown this morning, 10-noon on TSN1260. Dave Jamieson’s delivery and professionalism is exceeded only by his sense of humor and timing. I’d hate him if he wasn’t such a nice guy. He’ll be joined by all manner of guests, please tune in because (and this has always galled me) Jamieson gets all the breaking news and no doubt the sporting Gods will once again reward him. I will return tomorrow unless hit by a bus.

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ArmchairGM

Wilde:
Some good reading here fellas.

Here’s a late night basement update, after the results from tonight:

team – pts % / / odds of most likely draft spot / / odds of a top 3 pick – odds at #1 overall

BUF– 0.400 / / 4th @ 51.9% / / 48.1% – 18%

ARI – 0.407 / / 4th @ 33.7% / / 36.2% – 12.5%
—————————————————
VAN – 0.415 / / 5th @ 39.1% / / 31.2% – 10.5%

OTT – 0.442 / / 6th @ 35.5% / / 28.6% – 9.5%
—————————————————
DET – 0.450 / / 6th @ 32.8% / / 25.9% – 8.5%

MTL – 0.457 / / 7th @ 38.2% / / 23.4% – 7.6%
—————————————————
EDM – 0.464 / / 8th @ 39.7% / / 20.9% – 6.7%

CHI – 0.479 / / 9th @ 38.1% / / 18.3% – 5.8%

Don’t look now, but we may pass Chicago.

Here’s the last players drafted at 9th overall:

M. Rasmussen
M. Sergachev
T. Meier
N. Ehlers
B. Horvat
J. Trouba
D. Hamilton
M. Granlund

Huh. You know I was going into that thinking ‘this might make a decent argument to trade the pick outright’.

But that list is fuckin solid.

Hmmm.

Good point. There will be some excellent RHD’s available at 8 / 9 – either Dobson or Bouchard would be a great fit. And if we can pick up another late-round pick, guys like Merkley, Addison and Woo would be huge additions to the system.

wintoon

There is a lot of talk about the Oilers trading for Karlsson. If the Oilers were going to get the player from 2 years ago I would be a strong supporter of the trade. But are they?

I have watched him skating this year and \i am not impressed with his acceleration and mobility. It appears that his foot problem has slowed him down and may linger for years. I believe that any trade for Karlsson would be extremely high risk in terms of what player are you getting and the cost of same..

HT Joe

Kinger_Oil.redux:
HT Joe,

– HT this is an elaborate thought chain. I appreciate it because you start with the premise that Chia isn’t an idiot and he has access to better information than we do.
– of course we can never know the full logic behind moves but your attempt to decipher the moves is far more nuanced and in line with reality.
– simply trotting our some 5×5 stats to show how much better ebs is than strome one a c the other a w then saying therefore it’s clear chia is an idiot it doesn’t work that way
– ps I’m with the other guy. Karlson isn’t coming here. Just like Lucic isn’t getting traded. I don’t get why we contemplate such fantasyland

Thanks. Chia has to be smart, and he has to have info we don’t have. So why is he making seemingly silly moves. If he trades RNH+ out this offseason (and the “+” may be a LHD), it would surprise me if the return wasn’t a cheaper top-6 winger with a penchant for shooting (and a RHD).

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

flyfish1168,

Plus minus is derided on this blog as a flawed stat, however, I agree that it tells a tale with Karlsson.

Again I watch quite a few Sens games and I’m sure a few folks did the same during the playoff run last year but here’s a quick synopsis.

The Sens lack high end talent up front, they had/have some creative guys who can score (Stone, Hoffman, Turris/Duchene) but things fall off dramatically after that. As such they play an Arizona style, sit back, protect the box and capitalize on chances via fast breaks when they occur. They’ve played this way for years, which has earned them the nickname around some in Ottawa as the “pesky-Sens” always buzzing, never out of it, finding ways to get points.

I’m not a fan of the style but hey they rode it to OT in Game 7 of the East final so pox on me.

Karlsson plays 27ish minutes a night in all situations in that system. At the same time since the beginning of the 2013 season he’s been in on roughly a 30% of the teams offense (Goals + Assist /total goals scored):

2013/2014 – 31%
2014/2015 – 28%
2015/2016 – 35%
2016/2017 – 33%
2017/2018 – 27% (so far)

This season has been a bit of a down year BUT I would chock up the slight production decrease (we’re talking 3 – 4 at this pace) to the bizarre year in Ottawa. All that said I would bet that barring injury he ends the year near his pace at 30%.

Those numbers are pretty insane. For comparative purposes, he and Hedman are 7 months apart in bdays. Karlsson drafted in 08, began playing in the NHL in 09 while Hedman came over as a raw rookie and started in 09. Here is there head to head over that time. Games, goals, assists, points, PP points.

Karlsson – 620 125 385 510 – 193
Hedman – 614 76 276 352 – 101

This blog (myself included) loves Hedman, but playing in practically the same amount of games, on a team, lacking Stamkos, Kucherov, Callahan, Johnson, Palat riding shotgun Karlsson scores 50 goals and a 150 points more. And he does it 6 inches and 35 pounds shorter and lighter than Hedman. Erik Karlsson is CRAZY

Digging a bit deeper here is Karlsson’s EV + SH point shares

2013/2014 – 61%
2014/2015 – 55%
2015/2016 – 68%
2016/2017 – 61%
2017/2018 – 70% (so far)

This is nuts. This is McDavid as a defenseman. He puts up EV points on defense at the same rate that CmD/Drai do as forwards.

This isn’t getting a Lindros level pick like some have mentioned this is getting the best offensive defenseman in the world in the prime of his career to play along with the best offensive forward in the NHL. This is having Paul Coffey playing with Wayne Gretzky level shit right here.

To look down on the idea of having Erik Karlsson play with Connor McDavid is absurd. Adding Karlsson to this team would be as big of a deal as signing Draisaitl. It would send shock waves around the league. Karlsson has two Norris trophies and is perpetually in the hunt for it every single year.

And if he came to Edmonton he wouldn’t have to play 26 minutes a game, he wouldn’t have to play in all situations. You could put him with something resembling a stay at home Dman (I’d nominate Sekera) and push him offensively.

In Ottawa the offense runs through him. Skating it out, headman passes, point shots, facilitator, down low cycling he can and does do it all.

I know I’m beating a drum here but I can’t stress enough just how unbelievably earth-shattering it would be to add Erik Karlsson while keeping all of: CmD, Drai, Nurse, Larsson, JP, Yammamoto and have Sekera return to something resembling last year’s version. Without even stretching the truth you have three guys who can score at a PPG pace and score at 70% share at EV.

The likelihood of it happening is low, I don’t disagree BUT we know he’s being discussed and the rumour of assets being discussed here today is not crazy, in fact its downright reasonable.

Resigning him would be difficult cap wise, but you can make it work by shipping out one of the anchors and that isn’t impossible.

Adding Karlsson drastically changes the complexion of the team instantly. Making predictions for next year is next to impossible but think long and hard what the lineup would look like next season with Karlsson and Hoffman in vs Nuge and Klefbom.

I love Nuge but it isn’t even close.

Professor Q

Wilde:
Professor Q,

It was Drai, #4, and one of the defensemen for Subban and the #9.

EDM would have won that trade, I think.

So long as it was Nurse and not Klef going out, and EDM picked Sergachyev.

I just read another article from about time (Edmonton Journal) and it said there was another pick that might have to have been added. Unsure though.

But seeing as we already picked Puljujärvi with the #4, I included him.

I only ask this because now we know how good and valuable Draisaitl is as well as his contract cost (as well as the D), and we’d still have to lock in Karlsson if possible (we’d have the room and hopefully the winning experience next year to persuade him).

With Subban, he is already locked in so you don’t have to worry (at the time) and even if not, McDavid likely would have been enough of a convincing factor.

I know people say that anything would be worth it, to see Karlsson with McDavid, but we’d be losing our very good 2nd Line Centre/1st Line RW, and have to put Nuge back to C when he’s just becoming even better with McDavid. Or find another 2nd Line C.

Bank Shot

Wilde: I’m not worried about Karlsson’s age either, I’m just saying 28+ is definitively not the prime.

All of those examples are from a time when the league was much, much older as a whole.

And it’s not a matter of whether or not they’re still excellent contributors in comparison to the rest of the league, it’s a comparison to their past selves.

Overall I think people think/want players’ primes to much later than they are in reality.

Yeah that’s fair. I think its especially true with forwards. Lots of high scoring defencemen bloom later though and have their best productive years 25-30.

Ryan Suter will probably hit a career high this year at 33. His current best was two years ago.
Chara’s best two seasons offensively were 30 and 31.
Giordano didn’t even bloom until about 28.
Burns had his best years around 30.

Even a slightly less good Erik Karlsson is still a top ten defenceman.

Wilde

Bank Shot: Most if not ALL Norris level defencemen are excellent from 28-35+.

MacInnis putup 68 points at 39.
Chelios, Coffey, Chara, Lidstrom, Bourque, Blake, Leetch, Niedermayer.
Pronger was doing fine at 35 up until being wiped out by injuries.

That’s all the retired Norris winners dating back to 1985.

Lots of these guys were still great contributors at age 37+.

I would have zero worries about Karlsson’s age.

I’m not worried about Karlsson’s age either, I’m just saying 28+ is definitively not the prime.

All of those examples are from a time when the league was much, much older as a whole.

And it’s not a matter of whether or not they’re still excellent contributors in comparison to the rest of the league, it’s a comparison to their past selves.

Overall I think people think/want players’ primes to much later than they are in reality.

Bank Shot

Professor Q:
Bank Shot,

If it were to cost Draisaitl, Puljujärvi, Nurse/Klefbom, and a draft pick, would it still be a wise decision? Mind you, it could require less assets due to the very different contract control, but maybe not due to skill and status?

Well it won’t cost that much. Whatever it realistically ends up costing will be less valuable than Karlsson.

Bank Shot

Wilde: I’m also in favour of trading for Karlsson, but 28+ is not a defenseman’s prime.

Most if not ALL Norris level defencemen are excellent from 28-35+.

MacInnis put up 68 points at 39.
Chelios, Coffey, Chara, Lidstrom, Bourque, Blake, Leetch, Niedermayer.
Pronger was doing fine at 35 up until being wiped out by injuries.

That’s all the retired Norris winners dating back to 1985.

Lots of these guys were still great contributors at age 37+.

I would have zero worries about Karlsson’s age.

Wilde

Professor Q,

It was Drai, #4, and one of the defensemen for Subban and the #9.

EDM would have won that trade, I think.

So long as it was Nurse and not Klef going out, and EDM picked Sergachyev.

Professor Q

Bank Shot,

If it were to cost Draisaitl, Puljujärvi, Nurse/Klefbom, and a draft pick, would it still be a wise decision? Mind you, it could require less assets due to the very different contract control, but maybe not due to skill and status?

Wilde

leadfarmer: Except thats pretty much the length of a defensemans prime years.So you really are getting a elite defenseman in his prime plus a couple years at the end.

Wish the Oil would have just traded for Seth Jones when I was begging them to years ago

I’m also in favour of trading for Karlsson, but 28+ is not a defenseman’s prime.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Other than Toronto or Montreal I doubt that is true. Canadian media markets are peanuts. Players like Crosby transcend that nationally but when is the last time you saw an Erik Karlsson Tim Horton’s commercial?

Eberle had commercials a few years ago.

If you are a defenseman you are especially not getting endorsement deals in the US. Most American media markets dont care enough about hockey to spend endorsement dollars on a non star forward

Bank Shot

maudite:
I’m only spending crazy young/future assets if I’m getting the next Seth Jones type guy or for something like PK Subban when MTL stupidly dealt him…not what remains of the present Eric Karlsson.

Most were against trading Nuge for Seth Jones when it looked like it was a possibility. Gotta give credit to Chiarelli for attempting that.

Its too bad GMs don’t value Nuge like Oilers fans do.

Subban was only one year younger than Karlsson when he was traded. I am all in favour of the OIlers going hard after Karlsson, because whatever they give up, it will be a win. That’s what happens when stars are traded.

leadfarmer

maudite:
I’m only spending crazy young/future assets if I’m getting the next Seth Jones type guy or for something like PK Subban when MTL stupidly dealt him…not what remains of the present Eric Karlsson.

You are likely looking at a max year contract for high dough on Karlsson. So what that’s like 12 mil for 7 years?

28-35…

Passover.

FIx bottom six.

Find some guys that can PK and saw off (put together a 4th line around this plan..Good RH center, a center/winger and a winger).

Get pro scouting to dig through all the cracks and crevices in the couch for spare change players (specifically high percentage shooters that may have been overlooked).Figure out how to acquire potential undervalued targets.To increase odds of getting a bit more of a goal threat (give them a shot as a 3rd line winger)

Get coaching staff thatdoesn’t seem to ignore the evidence that their system and player usage on the PK was so astronomically predictable and they got their assess handed to them.

Get a coaching staff that is dynamic enough to present different PP set ups and teams so that when it is obvious their PP strategy is also solved and coaches are pawning them they will be quicker to adapt and present different threats.

Get Lucic to go back to training how he used to.He tried to change to play better with McD.It’s worse.That’s okay, just stop playing him with McD.

Get a coach who can get the best out of a guy like Kassian.You see flashes of it.There is more game in that rooster when he is feeling it.He’s not a guy that should ever be invisible and I find it odd when he is.

Nuge McD xxx
Slep/Lucic – Drai– Pujajarvi
Lucic/Slep/xxx – Strome – Kassian/Aberg
xxx/Slep – Kharia –Aberg/Kassian

1st line: I do not want that name to be Yamato yet..but We need some shooters. You shouldn’t have to spend a ton of cash finding someone to feed off of Nuge and McD.I think if you let those two settle in together it’s going to pay off.

Give the 2nd line the softest minutes we can.Not really sure Aberg is of use but we have rest of season to figure that out I guess.

Figure out how to toss out Russel’s contract and get another RD in mix.What would it take to get Weber out of montreal?We send Russel that way with what else?

Nurse Larsson
Klef Weber
Sek Bear

Benning

Except thats pretty much the length of a defensemans prime years. So you really are getting a elite defenseman in his prime plus a couple years at the end.

Wish the Oil would have just traded for Seth Jones when I was begging them to years ago

Wilde

Some good reading here fellas.

Here’s a late night basement update, after the results from tonight:

team – pts % / / odds of most likely draft spot / / odds of a top 3 pick – odds at #1 overall

BUF– 0.400 / / 4th @ 51.9% / / 48.1% – 18%

ARI – 0.407 / / 4th @ 33.7% / / 36.2% – 12.5%
—————————————————
VAN – 0.415 / / 5th @ 39.1% / / 31.2% – 10.5%

OTT – 0.442 / / 6th @ 35.5% / / 28.6% – 9.5%
—————————————————
DET – 0.450 / / 6th @ 32.8% / / 25.9% – 8.5%

MTL – 0.457 / / 7th @ 38.2% / / 23.4% – 7.6%
—————————————————
EDM – 0.464 / / 8th @ 39.7% / / 20.9% – 6.7%

CHI – 0.479 / / 9th @ 38.1% / / 18.3% – 5.8%

Don’t look now, but we may pass Chicago.

Here’s the last players drafted at 9th overall:

M. Rasmussen
M. Sergachev
T. Meier
N. Ehlers
B. Horvat
J. Trouba
D. Hamilton
M. Granlund

Huh. You know I was going into that thinking ‘this might make a decent argument to trade the pick outright’.

But that list is fuckin solid.

Hmmm.

maudite

I’m only spending crazy young/future assets if I’m getting the next Seth Jones type guy or for something like PK Subban when MTL stupidly dealt him…not what remains of the present Eric Karlsson.

You are likely looking at a max year contract for high dough on Karlsson. So what that’s like 12 mil for 7 years?

28-35…

Passover.

FIx bottom six.

Find some guys that can PK and saw off (put together a 4th line around this plan..Good RH center, a center/winger and a winger).

Get pro scouting to dig through all the cracks and crevices in the couch for spare change players (specifically high percentage shooters that may have been overlooked). Figure out how to acquire potential undervalued targets. To increase odds of getting a bit more of a goal threat (give them a shot as a 3rd line winger)

Get coaching staff that doesn’t seem to ignore the evidence that their system and player usage on the PK was so astronomically predictable and they got their assess handed to them.

Get a coaching staff that is dynamic enough to present different PP set ups and teams so that when it is obvious their PP strategy is also solved and coaches are pawning them they will be quicker to adapt and present different threats.

Get Lucic to go back to training how he used to. He tried to change to play better with McD. It’s worse. That’s okay, just stop playing him with McD.

Get a coach who can get the best out of a guy like Kassian. You see flashes of it. There is more game in that rooster when he is feeling it. He’s not a guy that should ever be invisible and I find it odd when he is.

Nuge McD xxx
Slep/Lucic – Drai – Pujajarvi
Lucic/Slep/xxx – Strome – Kassian/Aberg
xxx/Slep – Kharia – Aberg/Kassian

1st line: I do not want that name to be Yamato yet.. but We need some shooters. You shouldn’t have to spend a ton of cash finding someone to feed off of Nuge and McD. I think if you let those two settle in together it’s going to pay off.

Give the 2nd line the softest minutes we can. Not really sure Aberg is of use but we have rest of season to figure that out I guess.

Figure out how to toss out Russel’s contract and get another RD in mix. What would it take to get Weber out of montreal? We send Russel that way with what else?

Nurse Larsson
Klef Weber
Sek Bear

Benning

Kinger_Oil.redux

HT Joe,

– HT this is an elaborate thought chain. I appreciate it because you start with the premise that Chia isn’t an idiot and he has access to better information than we do.

– of course we can never know the full logic behind moves but your attempt to decipher the moves is far more nuanced and in line with reality.

– simply trotting our some 5×5 stats to show how much better ebs is than strome one a c the other a w then saying therefore it’s clear chia is an idiot it doesn’t work that way

– ps I’m with the other guy. Karlson isn’t coming here. Just like Lucic isn’t getting traded. I don’t get why we contemplate such fantasyland

Professor Q

Harpers Hair: Other than Toronto or Montreal I doubt that is true. Canadian media markets are peanuts. Players like Crosby transcend that nationally but when is the last time you saw an Erik Karlsson Tim Horton’s commercial?

Unfortunately, Karlsson isn’t Canadian and that really does matter in Canadian society and media representation (is also in Ottawa).

It shouldn’t matter, and Ottawa should press harder for coverage and celebrate him. Same with other Canadian sponsors.

Right now, the only real “Big Names” for Canadian sponsors, that really press their names and faces out, are Toews, Stamkos, and Crosby. Ovechkin is second to Crosby, and at one time surpassed him, but mostly relegated to Gatorade and such now.

When he was doing multiple commercials and had the Mr. Big Deal stuff going on, his face was everywhere. But unlike those other three I don’t think I’ve ever seen him involved with Jump Start, Timbits Hockey, or similar.

McDavid is close by but even he isn’t on their level. Yet. He’s already had the commercials starting and more products, so very soon he’ll likely have more involvement.

Even Matthews isn’t on that level, being in Toronto.

There aren’t that many spaces for multiple players.

GMB3

flea:
HT Joe,

Great post. I think you are close on their lines of thinking. I also get the feeling that they want to go whale hunting this summer. They want OEL or Karlsson and will go for it next season. The season after that both sekera and Russell are tradable and you could potentially sign one of those guys to a 8M contract.

They are still cleaning up the mess the prior regime left.

I don’t think signing Lucic to a 6 million dollar deal helped clean up any messes. If they are going whale hunting I don’t think you resign Russell at 4 mill. If you know this year is going to be a turd, why do that? Why the NMC?

Neither Karlsson or Doughty sign below 9, imo.

A lot of what ifs

frjohnk

flea: They are still cleaning up the mess the prior regime left.

The next regime may have an even bigger mess to clean up.

flea

HT Joe,

Great post. I think you are close on their lines of thinking. I also get the feeling that they want to go whale hunting this summer. They want OEL or Karlsson and will go for it next season. The season after that both sekera and Russell are tradable and you could potentially sign one of those guys to a 8M contract.

They are still cleaning up the mess the prior regime left.

Professor Q

JimmyV1965:
I love Karlsson, but no way I trade Drai.The age difference and eventual contract difference makes it a no-go for me.

Although it does harken back to the Drai, Klefbom, Puljujärvi + for Subban deal.

HT Joe

JJ:
On a 23 man roster, Nuge is the 21stguy I would trade.

Oilers’ management can’t be that stupid could they?

So, I assume that even though he has lost more than his share of trades, Chia is an intelligent guy. So why would an intelligent guy trade away Eberle for Strome one-for-one?
– He must have understood that this was a downgrade in skill.
– He must have understood that last year was a down-year for Eberle.
– He must have understood that Strome’s ceiling looked like a 3rd line player… 2nd line tops.
– He must have heard the verbal where Strome confirmed a preference to play centre, so Strome could not be expected to effectively replace Eberle.

I believe Chia has confirmed (or at least led us to believe) that he signed Draisatl as a centre. He also has confirmed (or led us to believe) that he feels they are paying a lot (too much?) for McDavid, RNH, and Draisatl down the middle.

Chia must also understand that defensive ability is sometimes overlooked in a trade, and offensive numbers typically trump all.

We know that TMac reports to Chia, and Chia supports him (publicly at least).

We also know that the change in RNH’s useage didn’t necessarily benefit the team the most (with him now having a more offensive role), but certainly improved his cachet outside of Edmonton. (please correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought RNH faced less severe defensive situations this year)

What if last year, Chia simply decided that he needed to drop cost, and replacing BOTH RNH and Eberle with cheaper players was the path forward.
– Chia knew that last year neither RNH nor Eberle could be traded for peak value (neither had overwhelming offensive numbers).
– Chia knew that wingers bring in less than centres, so he traded the Eberle at basement-value, but as part of a 2-step process in the hopes of later trading RNH for peak value. Presumable the overall trade return for (basement-Eberle + peak-RNH) would exceed that of (peak-Eberle + basement-RNH).
– Also, centre depth is really key to win games, so before trading RNH, Chia needed to be sure that he had a sure-thing replacement. This also necessitated trading Eberle last year (instead of trying to wait a year before trading away both RNH and Eberle at potential-peak value)
– Chia let Todd test-drive Strome for the year, to see if Strome could effectively play as a low-cost 3C (replacing RNH).
– This whole year, Chia / TMac tried to pump RNH’s offensive production as much as possible AS A CENTRE, to improve RNH’s cachet around the league (i.e., this is why RNH until recently didn’t get McDavid time).
– Strome was always slotted in to replace RNH, which is why he never got much time on McDavid’s wing… the goal was to keep Strome as a cheap replacement for RNH when it came to contract renegotiations summer 2018.

Maybe Chia’s 2-part plan all along was (1) find and test drive cheaper RNH replacement, (2) trade peak-value RNH for a cheaper goal-scoring winger (+picks +prospects). Finally, with the emergence of Nurse, I suspect Chia will try to trade both RNH + Klefbom in the hopes of both getting a cheaper scoring winger to replace Eberle, while also fixing the LD/RD mismatch.

When Chia didn’t load up for a cup run in 2017, did he perhaps already expect 2017-2018 to be a turd, and that his seemingly poor Eberle for Strome trade was only the first part of a two-year cap adjustment series of moves?

*EDIT* As a fan, I hate the idea of GMs intentionally neglecting entire seasons, but as a senior manager for a multi-hundred-million-dollar corporation, it must be part of Chia’s skillset to have very long-range plans in place, no?

*EDIT* While Eberle’s playoffs were standout poor, RNH had no goals, 4 assists, and -3 +/-. Maybe Chia watched those 13 playoff games and figured then and there that he had to pay less than $12M total for two weak playoff performers (not my description per say… I’m just trying to think like Chia might have)

Harpers Hair

JJ:
On a 23 man roster, Nuge is the 21stguy I would trade.

Oilers’ management can’t be that stupid could they?

See Hall, Taylor for reference..

JJ

On a 23 man roster, Nuge is the 21st guy I would trade.

Oilers’ management can’t be that stupid could they?

Harpers Hair

JimmyV1965: What about endorsement deals? You’re getting way more of those in any Canadian city.

Other than Toronto or Montreal I doubt that is true. Canadian media markets are peanuts. Players like Crosby transcend that nationally but when is the last time you saw an Erik Karlsson Tim Horton’s commercial?

JimmyV1965

Harpers Hair: And why wouldn’t he live in Nevada? Also many states and provinces do not collect taxes for road games. Both he and Doughty have already said it’s all about the money and no tax states have a distinct advantage with more than a few pundits suggesting the salary cap be adjusted for the difference.

What about endorsement deals? You’re getting way more of those in any Canadian city.

JimmyV1965

StixMalone:
Listen if I’m Karlsson I sure as hell wouldn’t sign in Edmonton, McDavid or not . I’m looking to finish my career in a warm temperate climate eg. Florida or California but not Phoenix lol. Why not? Career will be over in 5-6 years anyway. Bank the money (he will be paid handsomely) and retire comfortably on a nice beach front property.

HE’S NOT COMING HERE!!!!

EVER!!!

You’re absolute conviction about this is kind of weird. While it’s unlikely he comes here, what happens if Connor phones him up one day and lays out the future for him?

AshetonisGod

Woodguy v2.0:
More from the previous thread (sorry, I don’t have nearly as much free time as I used to….)

Woodguy v2.0: Let’s all wave our hands and discount 6 years of results and just concentrate on the outlier year.

Well no.

Here is Lucic’s 5v5 Pts/60 over the last 6 years:

PlayerSeasonP/60
MILAN.LUCIC2012-20132.08
MILAN.LUCIC2013-20142.03
MILAN.LUCIC2014-20151.69
MILAN.LUCIC2015-20162.09
MILAN.LUCIC2016-20171.22
MILAN.LUCIC2017-20181.50

The last 2 years are poor.2 years are not an outlier, they are a trend.

Here is Lucic’s Primary Points/60 5v5 over the last 6 years:

PlayerSeasonP1/60
MILAN.LUCIC2012-20131.35
MILAN.LUCIC2013-20141.56
MILAN.LUCIC2014-20151.36
MILAN.LUCIC2015-20161.73
MILAN.LUCIC2016-20171.00
MILAN.LUCIC2017-20180.81

The last two years are poor.2 years is not an outlier, they are a trend.

I know everyone like to point to total points, but we all know that Lucic had an amazing year last year on the power play.

Lucic’s 4v5 Points/60 last 6 years:

PlayerSeasonP/60
MILAN.LUCIC2012-20131.34
MILAN.LUCIC2013-20143.90
MILAN.LUCIC2014-20153.27
MILAN.LUCIC2015-20162.83
MILAN.LUCIC2016-20177.05
MILAN.LUCIC2017-20182.39

16/17 is an outlier, not a trend.

If you want to look at raw 5v4 points:

PlayerSeasonP
MILAN.LUCIC2012-20132
MILAN.LUCIC2013-201412
MILAN.LUCIC2014-20158
MILAN.LUCIC2015-20168
MILAN.LUCIC2016-201725
MILAN.LUCIC2017-20186

Last year is an outlier, not a trend.

So when you say:

You talking about about your criticism of Lucic?

You are 100% in the wrong for accusing me of this because:

-Eberle’s goal dip was one year after a long history of good years
-He’s not a physical player prone to breaking down at ~30, had only played 507 NHL games, goal scorers then to score well into their 30’s.
-was 27 when they traded him, so he probably has a few good years left.

Lucic on the other hand:
-Its a 2 year trend.When projecting a player’s future the Generally Accepted Rules of Weighting Seasons is 50% last season, 30% 2 previous and 20% 3 previous (ymmv)
-Lucic is a very physical player (is among the league leaders in hits this year….) and turns 30 this summer
-He’s played 913 NHL games (regular season and playoffs) which is A LOT for a physical player.Most hit leaders don’t play 700, let alone 900.

Please retract your remark, or at the very least admit you were wrong.

Thanks for this. Let’s assume Lucic’s results this year are what he is and that there’s no undisclosed injury or ailment that might explain his post Xmas collapse. The data support the eye test. He’s a marginal NHLer at this point. TMac sees him every day in practice and on the ice gamedays. He’s been evaluating NHLers for years. Surely he must know Lucic aint what he used to be and yet he never sits him. Instead, he gives him good minutes every night. Why the interest in protecting Lucic when it is costing the team almost every single game? Imagine reducing Lucic’s TOI by 4 minutes per game and redistributing it to other wingers/ centers (excluding Cags). The team would be better off and younger players wpuld get more development time. Why the favouritism? Why this sentimentalism?

Harpers Hair

JimmyV1965: It would absolutely have to be a sign and trade. No one is giving up real assets for one year.

Like a first and a second for one year of Griffen Reinhart?

JimmyV1965

Doug McLachlan: The price is going to be dictated by the ability to sign.

If Ottawa allows teams to talk with Karlsson before the draft so that they can guage whether re-signing the prize is possible, then I could see 2018 picks in play but if not then all you have in Karlsson is an expiring UFA (albeit with an amazing player).

One year of Karlsson is probably worth a lot but knowing you have him locked up makes his value that much greater.

I can envision a few possible scenarios for Karlsson:

1- Ottawa trades him for his UFA value before the draft.This puts 2018 picks into play and Ottawa at least can sell hope.

2- Ottawa packages him with a bad contract (Bobby Ryan) to free up the cash needed for Melnyk’s creditors.Ryan (or Gaborik) lowers the return you get for Karlsson.While Bobby Ryan’s contract is bad enough as it is, he is owed a $2M signing bonus on July 1st so if this is the plan, more reason to expect the deal pre-draft as opposed to post.

3- If Ottawa wants to get top return on Karlsson then the team that he’s going to will want to either know they can re-sign him or will be providing the real value by way of conditional picks that arrive AFTER this year’s draft.

In thinking about comparables P.K. Subban’s cap hit is $9M but his salary this year is $11M.Brent Burns is the next highest at a $8M cap hit and a $10M salary.Both contracts are very signing bonus heavy.

What do we estimate Karlsson’s cap $ to be?$10M?More?Limiting number of landing spots.

$12 mill. And we can make it work, depending on the cap.

JimmyV1965

GMB3:
I feel like a lot of the Chiarelli supporters believe he needs more time and that he is building organizational depth and aiming to build a long term contender.

Trading this years high first plus RNH and Klefbom for Mike Hoffman and a season of Erik karlsson would be very Alex Anthopolous-esque. We need players who contribute on their ELC, and I imagine the likes of Merkley, Svechnikov, Wahlstrom, Zadina, Boqvist, Bouchard, would do a lot more for the future of this team than Mike Hoffman and Erik karlsson for a season.

It would absolutely have to be a sign and trade. No one is giving up real assets for one year.

Harpers Hair

Gayfish: I’m not sure how the road game state tax works. Some really bonkers stuff goes on there. Superbowl between Broncos and Panthers had winning QB forced to pay money to the government of California. This was because the winning QB gets a pay bonus for winning the superbowl, and that made them tax elligible in California, but they get taxed based on their yearly income, not the money paid in california.

What the NHL should do is set up main office in the lowest taxed state, and pay all players directly from a pot paid to the NHL by the owners.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2016/02/03/california-taxes-will-eat-up-all-of-cam-newtons-super-bowl-earnings/#49560de44452

Here’s a link to the state tax rates.
https://taxfoundation.org/state-individual-income-tax-rates-brackets-2017/

Note that Florida, Texas and Nevada are among NHL states have none with Washington State soon to follow.

JimmyV1965

I wouldn’t be too worried about Karlsson declining with age. Sure, he’s fast and super talented, but it’s the brain that makes him so exceptional. He might not be the best dman in the league at 35, but he’ll still be damn good.

flyfish1168

JimmyV1965:
flyfish1168,

+1000

You can plus it and spin it all you want. Since you brought up his ev points, then you must know he is a career minus player at even strength. -26 this year alone. Trending down. He doesn’t want to come here, we are not on his favourite list.

JimmyV1965

I love Karlsson, but no way I trade Drai. The age difference and eventual contract difference makes it a no-go for me.

Gayfish

meanashell11: This whole no state tax thing is not real as far as I am concerned.They pay tax in every state and province for road games. To make a difference he would need to live there permanently and if he wants the tax break he can live there and only stay in whatever city his team is in for the season. Especially as now many contracts have signing bonuses paid July 1. Tax is due where his perm residence is. No??

I’m not sure how the road game state tax works. Some really bonkers stuff goes on there. Superbowl between Broncos and Panthers had winning QB forced to pay money to the government of California. This was because the winning QB gets a pay bonus for winning the superbowl, and that made them tax elligible in California, but they get taxed based on their yearly income, not the money paid in california.

What the NHL should do is set up main office in the lowest taxed state, and pay all players directly from a pot paid to the NHL by the owners.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2016/02/03/california-taxes-will-eat-up-all-of-cam-newtons-super-bowl-earnings/#49560de44452

JimmyV1965

flyfish1168,

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
Erik Karlsson in Oilers silks would have an impact on the team second to that of McDavid and the combo of the two would be unbelievable

He plays 26:30 per night (down from over 27:00 the last 4 years)

He has scored at a 0.9 PPG pace over the last five years

He’s missed a total of 10 games over the last 5 years. I’m sorry I can’t take anyone seriously who says “well injuries” when comparing Oscar to Erik, at worst its a wash.

This year he has 38 EV points which would place him 3rd in total Oilers scoring

He’s getting paid $7.5 million in salary this year. He hasn’t been hard done by on his current contract and the Oilers would get him for one sweetheart year before he needs to be re-upped.

In the course of next year who knows what can be done with Sekera, Russell and Lucic after that.

Your d setup would look

Nurse – Larsson
Sekera – Karlsson
Russell – Benning
Auvitu – Bear

Those top two pairings can eat up almost 50 minutes a game.

If Erik Karlsson can be had you get him. He’s a complete and utter game changer.

I like Nuge, I like the depth that his presence allows for the forward group. If you could keep him out of that deal and prefer it. But if Ottawa is actually thinking of moving Erik Karlsson you have to do it.

Absolute game changer

+1000

Alpine

I don’t really know if you can simply give Lucic away until a couple more seasons are shaved off his contract. Unless you want to give up a nice sweetener (think Tyler Benson plus), and even still I don’t know if anyone will take him without trading a bad contract our way.

I think from here on forward for the next couple seasons you keep him away from McDavid and put him with someone he can keep with, and you keep his minutes at about a middle six level so he doesn’t get gassed as much.

Harpers Hair

meanashell11: This whole no state tax thing is not real as far as I am concerned.They pay tax in every state and province for road games. To make a difference he would need to live there permanently and if he wants the tax break he can live there and only stay in whatever city his team is in for the season. Especially as now many contracts have signing bonuses paid July 1. Tax is due where his perm residence is. No??

And why wouldn’t he live in Nevada? Also many states and provinces do not collect taxes for road games. Both he and Doughty have already said it’s all about the money and no tax states have a distinct advantage with more than a few pundits suggesting the salary cap be adjusted for the difference.

who

All this Nuge for Hoffman trade talk is making me very nervous.
This is my biggest fear with keeping Chia as GM. He is going to be under tremendous pressure to improve the team significantly this summer. If the Oilers don’t make the playoffs next year he knows he’s gone.
Under this scenario it is easy to see him doubling down on his previous mistakes to try and win now. If he makes a couple more bad decisions it will set this team back for most of Mcdavids new contract.
Patience is the only move here. One more year of struggle while some of the young prospects mature and the complete NMCs fall off of the Sekera and Russell contracts. One more year also lets Sekera and Klefbom prove they are healthy which should improve their trade value if the club decides to trade them next year.
Someone needs to take the keys away from Chia before he does something stupid.

meanashell11

Harpers Hair: I would wager he ends up in Vegas. They have the draft picks and prospects to pull it off and Nevada has no state income tax.

This whole no state tax thing is not real as far as I am concerned.They pay tax in every state and province for road games. To make a difference he would need to live there permanently and if he wants the tax break he can live there and only stay in whatever city his team is in for the season. Especially as now many contracts have signing bonuses paid July 1. Tax is due where his perm residence is. No??

Harpers Hair

StixMalone:
Listen if I’m Karlsson I sure as hell wouldn’t sign in Edmonton, McDavid or not . I’m looking to finish my career in a warm temperate climate eg. Florida or California but not Phoenix lol. Why not? Career will be over in 5-6 years anyway. Bank the money (he will be paid handsomely) and retire comfortably on a nice beach front property.

HE’S NOT COMING HERE!!!!

EVER!!!

I would wager he ends up in Vegas. They have the draft picks and prospects to pull it off and Nevada has no state income tax.

Harpers Hair

ArmchairGM: Yup, history will not deal kindly with that trade. Two years later you have nothing to show, meanwhile the “assets out” will be productive for Ottawa for years to come. If our Cup window was closing I can understand doing this, but that’s not the case.

The cup window is already closing and that kind of trade would only accelerate the process.

Woodguy v2.0

More from the previous thread (sorry, I don’t have nearly as much free time as I used to….)

Woodguy v2.0: Let’s all wave our hands and discount 6 years of results and just concentrate on the outlier year.

Andy Dufresne: You talking about about your criticism of Lucic?

Well no.

Here is Lucic’s 5v5 Pts/60 over the last 6 years:

Player Season P/60
MILAN.LUCIC 2012-2013 2.08
MILAN.LUCIC 2013-2014 2.03
MILAN.LUCIC 2014-2015 1.69
MILAN.LUCIC 2015-2016 2.09
MILAN.LUCIC 2016-2017 1.22
MILAN.LUCIC 2017-2018 1.50

The last 2 years are poor. 2 years are not an outlier, they are a trend.

Here is Lucic’s Primary Points/60 5v5 over the last 6 years:

Player Season P1/60
MILAN.LUCIC 2012-2013 1.35
MILAN.LUCIC 2013-2014 1.56
MILAN.LUCIC 2014-2015 1.36
MILAN.LUCIC 2015-2016 1.73
MILAN.LUCIC 2016-2017 1.00
MILAN.LUCIC 2017-2018 0.81

The last two years are poor. 2 years is not an outlier, they are a trend.

I know everyone like to point to total points, but we all know that Lucic had an amazing year last year on the power play.

Lucic’s 4v5 Points/60 last 6 years:

Player Season P/60
MILAN.LUCIC 2012-2013 1.34
MILAN.LUCIC 2013-2014 3.90
MILAN.LUCIC 2014-2015 3.27
MILAN.LUCIC 2015-2016 2.83
MILAN.LUCIC 2016-2017 7.05
MILAN.LUCIC 2017-2018 2.39

16/17 is an outlier, not a trend.

If you want to look at raw 5v4 points:

Player Season P
MILAN.LUCIC 2012-2013 2
MILAN.LUCIC 2013-2014 12
MILAN.LUCIC 2014-2015 8
MILAN.LUCIC 2015-2016 8
MILAN.LUCIC 2016-2017 25
MILAN.LUCIC 2017-2018 6

Last year is an outlier, not a trend.

So when you say:

You talking about about your criticism of Lucic?

You are 100% in the wrong for accusing me of this because:

-Eberle’s goal dip was one year after a long history of good years
-He’s not a physical player prone to breaking down at ~30, had only played 507 NHL games, goal scorers then to score well into their 30’s.
-was 27 when they traded him, so he probably has a few good years left.

Lucic on the other hand:
-Its a 2 year trend. When projecting a player’s future the Generally Accepted Rules of Weighting Seasons is 50% last season, 30% 2 previous and 20% 3 previous (ymmv)
-Lucic is a very physical player (is among the league leaders in hits this year….) and turns 30 this summer
-He’s played 913 NHL games (regular season and playoffs) which is A LOT for a physical player. Most hit leaders don’t play 700, let alone 900.

Please retract your remark, or at the very least admit you were wrong.

Woodguy v2.0

From the previous thread, thought I’d drop it here:

Andy Dufresne: FFS

How many goals did the 1989 Penguins score when Mario Lemieux wasnt on the ice?

We don’t have On/Off for 88/89, but we can look at how many goals Mario had points on.

I assume you mean 88/89 because in 89/90 PIT didn’t make the playoffs despite Mario getting 123 points in 59 games, having Paul Coffey, John Cullen etc.

88/89 PIT scored 148 goals with Mario not getting points and 199 with Mario getting a point.

Mario was in on 53.7% of their goals.

They lasted until the 2nd round of the playoffs.

16/17 EDM scored 143 with McDavid not getting a point and 100 with McDavid getting a point.

McDavid was in on 41.1% of their goals

They lasted until the 2nd round of the playoffs.

So neither team was any screaming hell.

Last two Cup winners was PIT.

In 15/16 PIT scored 156 goals with Crosby not getting a point and 85 with Crosby getting a point.

Crosby was in on 35% of their goals.

They won the Cup

In 16/17 PIT scored 189 goals with Crosby not getting a point and 89 with Crosby getting a point.

Crosby was in on 32% of their goals.

They won the Cup

If we look at the 1st year Mario won the Cup, it was actually in the year he only played 26 regular season games and got 45 points.

In 90/91 PIT scored 297 goals with Mario not getting a point and 45 with Mario getting a point.

Mario was in on 13% of their goals.

They won the Cup.

While this is an extreme example, I think it highlights that you need a good team to win the Cup and not just a Super Star.

So thanks for the question, it was a good one.

StixMalone

Listen if I’m Karlsson I sure as hell wouldn’t sign in Edmonton, McDavid or not . I’m looking to finish my career in a warm temperate climate eg. Florida or California but not Phoenix lol. Why not? Career will be over in 5-6 years anyway. Bank the money (he will be paid handsomely) and retire comfortably on a nice beach front property.

HE’S NOT COMING HERE!!!!

EVER!!!

DevilsLettuce

ArmchairGM:
Karlsson is a huge hole defensively. It sure would be fun to watch him spring McDavid on 15 breakaways per game, but does he bring that 36.49 HDGF% and 40.80 GF% with him too? FWIW, his HDGF/60 is 1.28 and HDGA/60 is 2.22, even with a 55.13 OZF%.

New head coach D. Sutter will solve that, with Kris Russell lol