Blue Side of Lonesome
Ty Rattie scored the goal, but Jesse Puljujarvi found iron, and should be the actual future on right-wing for the Edmonton Oilers. Unless there’s a real plot twist, and I’m talking flipping the script, the Finn will win the day and be a prominent player opening night in the fall. If we can agree on this, and land sakes it makes the most sense, then why I am still worrying over this? Alas, I have seen the Edmonton Oilers in their natural habitat and know the possibilities are as wide as the prairies on the first day of summer.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.
- New Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
- Lowetide: The Oilers and college free agents.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers exposed against Calgary.
- Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid has a lot to play for.
- Lowetide: Tracking Andrej Sekera.
- Lowetide: Jujhar Khaira, Ethan Bear and why prospects fail.
- Lowetide: How the Oilers can win summer without breaking the bank.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers and the WHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
TOM DOOLEY, YEAR OVER YEAR
- March 2016: 5-4-0, goal differential -2 (10 points)
- March 2017: 6-2-1, goal differential +13 (13 points)
- March 2018: 4-4-1, goal differential -1 (9 points)
The early Rattie goal seemed to wake up the Lightning and they put the boots to Edmonton pretty much the rest of the way. I saw some angry comments on the blog yesterday, outraged tweets, too. Impressive that people still care so much during G72. I would, however, suggest to you that this edition of the Oilers are going to have a helluva time against any and all Stanley Cup contenders.
AFTER 72, YEAR OVER YEAR
- Oilers 15-16: 27-38-7, goal differential -49 (61 points)
- Oilers 16-17: 39-24-9, goal differential +31 (87 points)
- Oilers 17-18: 31-36-5, goal differential -33 (67 points)
It’s just so far. 20 points now, between last year and this one. You know, I’ve studied hundreds of seasons over seasons, mostly in baseball but also in hockey. And you just don’t grab 30 points worth of improvement every second season. Even in an era of free agency, there are only so many impact players available and they get divided up, leaving teams with not much of a gap one to another. What’s that line from Peter Chiarelli? Close around the margins? Yeah. You might find a kid on the farm with a nasty slider who can fool batters, but your veteran catcher can’t run worth a crap and your Cy Young candidate has buggered himself up so badly there’s three mile an hour between his fastball and change. It’s always something. The Oilers are just on the blue side of lonesome, right next to the heartbreak hotel. It’s a long way from the beach.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH
- At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-2-0)
- On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
- On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
- Current results: 4-4-1, 9 points in nine games
There’s a little room to wheel here, should the Oilers get solid goaltending from Cam Talbot and the penalty killing holds at recent levels. We know Connor McDavid is firing on all pistons, so this could be a fun week ahead.
DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT
- Andrej Sekera played less than 10 minutes due to injury. I thought he was just coming around on the penalty kill, hope he won’t be out long.
- Matt Benning went 2-3 with Sekera and 1-5 with Darnell Nurse in a game that was a struggle. The Lightning are both fast and aggressive, meaning the defenders are going to be trying to catch up a lot.
- Klefbom-Bear went 8-18 in 9:58, although did manage 6-5 in 5:34 with Connor McDavid. That meant the duo was 2-13 in the 4+minutes without 97. Oscar played well to my eye, his rookie partner made a couple of good plays but had a helluva time with the Tampa Bay group. I’m not certain the wisdom of using Benning sparsely while Bear struggled, although it was an education I’m sure.
- Nurse-Larsson were 8-13 in 10:46, 1-1 GF. Nurse was 5-17 against Kucherov, who was flying while the Oilers had little answer.
- Al Montoya stopped 37 of 40, .925. It might have been his best outing as an Oilers goalie.
- NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.
FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT
- Caggiula-Draisaitl-Slepyshev went 3-11 (Caggiula) and 4-7 on the evening, Jesse Puljujarvi joined in and went 3-3 with Leon during the game. Draisaitl was actually pretty effective against Kucherov-Miller-Stamkos (6-5 in 6:39) but the work cut into his offensive sorties.
- Lucic-Strome-Puljujarvi went 4-10, 0-3 in high danger chances. Lucic looked engaged and played a physical game, I think the third line is a good idea for the rest of this season. JP had a brilliant chance to tie it, goalie didn’t move on a shot that hit the post. Strome played well, he was involved and made some positive plays with the puck. I’d like to see this line again.
- Nuge-McDavid-Rattie went 8-19, 1-1 in GF. Hedman-Stralman were very effective against 97, it was like Pronger was out there. If the Lightning can stay healthy, they have a chance to win it all. Nuge was very strong to my eye, I really am liking him on portside (and remember, I was agin it).
- Cammalleri-Khaira-Pakarinen went 6-6 in 6:28 pedestrian minutes. I find myself wishing Khaira was playing with more dynamic people.
JESSE PULJUJARVI
The young man is 740 minutes into his first full season and we’re unlikely to get a bunch more information on him for next year. JP is performing pretty well on the Strome line, he has 11 goals on 119 shots. He has 49 individual high danger scoring chances in 55 games, all but one of his points are primary. I badly want to write a story on him over at The Athletic, but I’ve already written the story (worrying over impatient franchise being patient) and we’re just going to have to watch how this plays out. I am encouraged by his season.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, I’m also part of the round table this morning at 9. Scheduled to appear at 10:
- Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. Expanding the playoffs.
- Corey Graham, Oil Kings PBP. The team ended on a strong note.
- Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers running out the string.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
I think they are playing JP too much on the PP.
Less JP on the PP and more every other winger on the PP. 🙁
Your words have a lot of disappointment this morning LT.
I kind of interpret them as “they blew it”
And then “it’s going to be a long uphil battle to improvement”
Maybe on an optimistic note. With narrow margins, perhaps just one more difference maker will do it.
For the summer I’m now thinking first priority is not to get worse, which is a real concern.
The oilers chase defence looks really bad against a quick team like Tampa.
On one shift Bear was caught out too long chasing around till he seemed to lose focus on what the hell he was supposed to do.I sympathize for him and all the oiler defence who have to chase after players from behind the net all the way to the blue line.
Contrast that with the play of Tampa blue who cover the box and corners and let the forwards do the chasing.
In three years Chia has put together a team that only wins when:
A) Talbot plays out of his mind.
B) Connor’s line scores. Lots.
Rinse and repeat 82 times.
I’m sure Kooch was thinking of McDavid’s performance at Rogers last time the teams met.
Does anyone else think that Khaira could be the next Maroon? Possibly? I would like to see him with McDavid a few games and see. Anyone else? He seems to have the speed and he is willing to stick up for his teammates. Reward the guy with a shot.
Also, very Tired of the non response for all the hits on 97.
If they didnt change any personal but got special teams to league average, a top 4 D core comparable to 16-17, and not have a 20 game stretch where the bottom 6 forwards score only a couple of 5 on 5 goals in one 20 game stretch, as well as have a bunch of our wingers in another 20 game stretch get 0 goals, we are probably a playoff bubble team.
Also
-need to have a better penalty differential ( worst in the league at 5 on 5)
-that “first shot goes in thingy” they had going was not cool, need to correct that
We surely miss Perron and Pouliot, very good secondary scorers. And oh, what Yakupov could have been (maybe).
Come on now.
You have to earn your ice time on the oil😡😡😡
I have to say for me JP didn’t look good to me other than the post. For me watching him live does give a little better look.. it was only one game though against a cup contender with a beast on D so there is that.
I hope he catches on but would not be surprised to see him dealt. I can see many debates in the near future similar to what happened with Yak even though I think they are different kinds of players with both struggling to understand the game at it’s highest level. Time will tell I guess.
I actually thought Rattie showed well in that game.
If Tampa gets by the Pens I think they win the cup.
I was actually surprised with JJ skating at the game yesterday. He was also a bit shifty on a couple of occasions. There is defiantly a player there. Not sure if he can get it to Maroons level for offence but do think it is possible.
team – pts % / / odds of most likely draft spot / / chance of top 3 – chance of dahlin
ARI– 0.401 / / 4th @ 51.9% / / 48.1% – 18%
BUF – 0.408 / / 4th @ 33.7% / / 36.2% – 12.5%
VAN – 0.410 / / 5th @ 39.1% / / 31.2% – 10.5%
—————————————————————
DET – 0.438 / / 6th @ 35.5% / / 28.6% – 9.5%
OTT – 0.444 / / 6th @ 32.8% / / 25.9% – 8.5%
MTL – 0.444 / / 7th @ 38.2% / / 23.4% – 7.6%
—————————————————————
EDM – 0.465 / / 8th @ 39.7% / / 20.9% – 6.7%
CHI – 0.473 / / 9th @ 38.1% / / 18.3% – 5.8%
…
Chicago gained on us a little bit last night, but they also have the stronger remaining schedule, but 0.008 pts% difference isn’t exactly a mountain.
Barring a historic run by Detroit (the wrong way!) there will be no more inter-tier movement.
…
This was a particularly fitting post for the moment, LT.
Tampa showed Edmonton a lot of things last night, I hope the right people saw the right sort of them.
what are the lottery rules this year…I seem to recall Vegas having a 6th place handed to them….if so,
prey tell WTF are we doing fooling no one but ourselves….play some rookies, rest more D men…lets get down and smart for the future…..at this rate the puck movers will be gone before we have a chance
Vegas is just a team in the NHL this year.
Jesse Puljujarvi is Nino Niederreiter.
We’ll see if McDonagh improves their D. I’ve basically got half the Lightning in my hockey pool this year and their D corps, sans Hedman-Stralman, was the one area of weakness.
If we get the usual drop in PPs called during the playoffs, I can see the Bolts losing.
Is there a GM out there that would trade with Chia, so that the Oilers receive Clutterbuck and the other team gets JP?
dustrock,
The Bolts are surpringly feisty, actually.
Gourde and Conacher especially were up to no good yesterday afternoon.
That, and they won’t be likely to play a Detroit Piston team in their route to the finals.
I think their D corps is probably 5-10th in the league with McDonagh.
frjohnk,
I can’t see the Islanders doing a lick of anything until JT makes a decision.
Yeah, too downcast.
If we can
! Keep the PK going
! Learn how to PP
! Get our share of calls
! Avoid the first. 2 minute meltdown
! Have healthy D
We will be okay, basically what FR* said, spot on
I can’t wrap my mind around these two things:
– Playing Klefbom while hurt because the team needs him that badly
– Trading Klefbom because they… don’t need him that badly?
Unless there’s a real plot twist, and I’m talking flipping the script, the Finn will win the day and be a prominent player opening night in the fall. If we can agree on this, and land sakes it makes the most sense, then why I am still worrying over this?
____________
You’re worried cause this team has done the wrong thing going on decades now. All Oilers fans have a form of PTSD thanks to management.
No team goes through a decade of darkness, and many other shit years, like this one, because they crush it in the ideas department.
Alas, I was born into it and here we are.
Maybe that’s more likely if you just lost it the year before though.
The personnel is not so different year over year. Surely not enough to explain the cratering of this team.
Out: Eberle, Pouliot, Hendricks and 30 games of Pitlick
In: Strome, Khaira, Jokinen/Camalleri (plus a lot more of Pulu)
The 16-17 group scored 40-43-83.
The 17-18 group has scored 25-47-72 through 72 GP (not including Pulu either year).
They were lucky to stay healthy last season, but I think expecting internal growth year over year was also reasonable (even though that clearly didn’t happen). The Sekera injury was huge too.
But all this suggests some optimism for me. I’m not saying there shouldn’t be changes or that everything’s A-OK, but a considerable rebound next year with the exact same group of players would not be surprising.
Didnt see the game.
The Corsi looks ……. like Tampa Dominated?
Anybody else questioning the whole idea that there’s a winning formula for an NHL these days? The belief that you need to have a solid top 4 and 3 strong centers to go with value contracts and veterans in depth rolls, etc. etc. Maybe it’s all just fantasy.
Oilers were Stanley Cup favorites in October (despite many believing that they didn’t do enough in the offseason). And they missed the playoffs.
Flames did everything right in the offseason. Signed Jagr. Got a legit #1 goalie. Traded with NYI to establish the best d-core in the league. And they missed the playoffs.
Vegas? Among top teams in the league, made up of players nobody else wanted.
Someone said the other day that 8 teams that were in the playoffs last year will miss this year. Are there 8 playoff teams with terrible GMs or rosters that were blown up in the offseason? No.
Maybe it all boils down to luck and a hot goalie, and everything else we obsess about on these blogs about roster construction etc. is minor, and really just fans playing the role of fantasy GM?
Majority of guys who have played both years here have had a worse second year due to injuries/taking a step backward.
Lucic, Maroon, Letestu, Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera, Benning, Kassian, Talbot are in this group
McDavid, Drai, RNH, Nurse, Khaira, Russell are even or better than last year
The group that took a step backward, collectively, took a bigger step backwards than the group with McDavid, RNH and Drai took a step forward
LT said…
Ty Rattie scored the goal, but Jesse Puljujarvi found iron, and should be the actual future on right-wing for the Edmonton Oilers.[…] If we can agree on this, and land sakes it makes the most sense, then why I am still worrying over this?
Well one of the reasons you might be worrying about it is because I don’t think there is consensus on what you’re suggesting.
I don’t like pigeon-holing players for next year because who knows what next year brings, but if I had to take a stand, I would say that based on where Pujo is–right here right now–he will not be on L1 opening night and with good reason. Maybe he makes it there mid-season if he takes a step forward, maybe it’s the season after.
But judging by today, I would say not opening night, and that’s not something to worry about, but be happy about, if in fact he is not yet ready come October.
Thank the pedestrian coaches for this.
Oilers NEED another Sather type arrogant prick behind the bench in order to bring the best from McDavid’s team, not cookie cutter NHL barely make it types who stubbornly cling to losing dogma.
Unfortunately, the Oilers are predicated on controlling their hires, which automatically precludes them ever hiring anyone of this ilk. The only hope is that somehow Paul Coffey or Mark Messier emerge as bona fide NHL coaches.
I said somehow.
PS: Before anyone mentions Eakins(arrogant)… Sather was a supremely competent NHL coach.
From last night…
Thanks for the response. It is appreciated.
This stat is as weak as i feared. Not very useful. The inverse of zone entries does not tell us whether or not the defender was responsible for the “poor” zone entry. This is equating correlation with causation.
For eg. the game plan on Benning might be to dump the puck on him and force him to pivot, skate and make a play deep in his own end. This is a common strategy against young players. And there are teams like NASH that will dump on anybody all game long.
Crediting a Dman with “denying” a controlled zone entry in these instances is not telling us anything about whether or not he is a good defender.
” I have seen the Edmonton Oilers in their natural habitat and know the possibilities are as wide as the prairies on the first day of summer.”
Agreed, optimism abounds.
For Chiarelli supporters it is indeed a beautiful setting. The prairies on the first day of summer….no place Id rather be. Call me lucky,
” I would, however, suggest to you that this edition of the Oilers are going to have a helluva time against any and all Stanley Cup contenders.”
Its called Parity…..we would all be well served to adapt our thinking to this new reality.
Lucky for you youre stated goal is to witness one more Cup in your lifetime. That seems reasonable. As long as you eat healthy and listen to your wife.
Winnipeg v Tampa for the cup.
May the refs ref and teams not have to resort to winning by just surviving and staving off injury.
May the league not conspire to steer success away from small market teams.
I think Benning has been better in the second half of the season.
But Tampas forwards really exposed him on puck retrievals yesterday. He looked like he was skating in sand a lot of the time.
Anyone using numbers to label him as a legit 2RD needs to watch him play. If that doesn’t change their mind then I give up.
Maroon could be the next Maroon (but I hope not). As far as leadership and pugilism Khaira is already the next Maroon. Its now, Kassian, Lucic, Khaira, Nurse.
“As for Jesse Puljujarvi…… I am encouraged by his season.”
I am glad to hear this….because 1) He has no real history of being a scorer 2) I am not good at assessing young talent….knowing what to look for and how to measure it relative to age.
You are my goto source for assessing prospect/young talent.
If you are happy…..I am happy. Because this kid developing as a scorer is critical to team success moving forward. Unless Svechnikov…..in which case JP becomes expendable or gets signed to a value contract as a middle 6 forward.
If I remember the numbers correctly
For every controlled zone entry, about a 55% to 60% chance of a shot on net
For every controlled zone entry, leads to a goal about 3.5% to 4%
For every uncontrolled zone entry ( forced dump in) a 25% chance of a shot
For every uncontrolled zone entry ( forced dump in) leads to a goal about 1.5%
So it is a given that a team wants a Dman that forces more dump ins. But will say that its a micro stat and its just one of a bunch of microstats out there for defensive play.
Some other defensive microstats I would love to see ( I have seen some of them for the Arizona Coyotes defense) are
-blocked passes to the slot
-shots against from the slot
-hits that separate player from the puck
-loose puck recoveries
There are few more, I cant think of at the moment which are not public but do have value in when trying to determine a players effectiveness
Ladies and gentlemen, Ty Rattie.
Who woulda thunk it?
Why do you love Clutterbuck?
It’s the Oilers thing to do. Defying logic is their forte.
That would mean there are two Nino Niederreiters in the league…..thats about as likely as there being two Sebastion Aho’s
What is this “feisty” that you reference?? Is THAT the F in CF.
There are many posts that describe in detail what is happening with Klefbom and why he is playing.
LT says…and remember I was agin it…
This was referring to Nuge with CONNOR.
Why do you dislike Nuge?
As for the Oilers in their natural habitat…the desert they have wandered for 10+ years is just as wide as the prairies.
The business model is Parity….and Parity you shall have.
Gary just called threatening lawsuit.
The business model is Competetive Balance……and Competitive Balance you shall have.
Sounds like youre applying for a job.
OHL season now over, it’s interesting to note that Evan Bouchard finished thus:
– top in points for defensemen in the CHL
– top in points on his team (by 30 points!)
– tied for 7th in points overall in OHL
– tied for best on his team in +/- with a +23
– NHLE of 32, which is top-6 forward territory
– top in points for *ALL* CHL draft-eligible players
And, he’s projected to be drafted in the 5-10 range, right where the Oilers will likely pick. Is there a better fit??
Watched a chunk of the Leafs vs Habs game on Saturday night and what really stood out for me was the sheer number of callups from the A that are playing for Montreal now. Their lineup now from where they started the season is nearly unrecognizable.
Which begs the question, why are the Oil not auditioning more players right now? Why Rattie and Bear only?
This for me is another culture issue that needs to be addressed. This team far underperformed vs pre-season expectations and the message that Chiarelli and MacLellan are sending currently is that everyone’s jobs are safe and the only reason for call-ups from the minors is to replace the guys dealt at the deadline? WTF?
Why not Caleb Jones or Dillon Simpson? Why not Currie or LaLeggia? Players like Caggiula, Kassian, JP, Cammaleri and Strome should not be feeling job secure right now. They should be getting a push from young hungry players desperate to get to the dance.
When they took over, Chia and TMac preached constant competition for jobs and icetime? What happened to that?
Andy Dufresne,
Are you Original Pouzar’s evil alter ego who has seized control of your shared brain? If so, please release OP from whatever mental chains you have him tied up in. We miss him and his outpouring of understated optimism so very much!
Anyone seen Larkin or Day play in Bake?
Is Hebig on his way or …… anyone got news.
For those panicking ….thought experiment.
Consider the end of the season, PC approaches all the other GMs and offers offers to swap the entire Oilers roster (including prospects and picks) for their entire roster.
How many say yes!
Remember we have 8 years of Connor currently aged 21.
I am going to guess most, what do you say?
OP you are up
Connor definitely tips the scales. Handful of teams might not trade their team for ours. Nashville, Tampa, Toronto, Jets, maybe a couple of other ones. Boston? Colorado?
Oops, forget Vegas 🙂
If we had not won that lottery and had Dylan Strome instead of McDavid, we are probably at the bottom of the pile.
Benning is better than Bear right now. The two actually look very similar out there to the naked eye but Benning is better on defense, and thats saying something because Benning is not all that great on the defensive side of the puck to begin with. I am hoping Bear can develop his game more and turn into a good NHLer. Right now he looks out of place as is evident by his awful +/-. He is still young though and plenty of time to develop, but I do not see the rush right now. nor do I see him being able to help the the Oilers much next season.
GriffCity,
Bear is getting a cup of coffee. Nobody should think he’s the finished project, not should he be on the plans as a NHL top-7 guy next year.
Smart teams give kids a look at the pro level so they see what it takes to be a regular in the toughest league in the world, then they change some habits and are driven to continue their development to get back there.
Benning seems to be yet another victim of Chia promising NHL playing time to college signees, something that has to change.
OP is not available right now.
Jekyl and Hyde
Bruce Banner and Hulk
OP and Andy
He may return once the discourse in here becomes more civil and I have to disappear back into the dark shadows……BUT UNTIL THEN….HEEEEEERRRES ANDY!
The way things stand, nor do I see McDavid being able to help the Oilers much next season.
*bravely withdraws to a safe space*
Khaira could be an excellent lw for Connor he has a better shot than Maroon a faster skater and I think will learn the close in finish of Maroon. Problem is coach has him locked in as fourth line center !
Bitter Kevin Lowe with his 87 IQ, enabled by Craig MacT with his 98 IQ riddled by documented alcohol abuse were gifted 10 years or more to develop the losing culture that’s crippling the Oilers in perpetuity. Had Katz not wanted his buddies around, they would have naturally been sacked and left to go find jobs as scouts like other untalented ex-players do. But Katz DOES want his buddies around, and even Gretzky/Coffey are probably still realizing what effect their former spear carriers have had on the organization. Meanwhile:
Katz wants his buddies around,
his buddies around,
his buddies around,
Katz wants his buddies around,
to sing him the same old songs.
The only question left is: With his fancy new ice rink, how much longer can he stand for a pathetic joke of a hockey team that now has got to be the worst run in NHL history(the Oakland Seals had a better record).
LT
What is the tme line on Filip Berglund comming over fron Sweden? He appears to have the requisite skills to push for 2/3 rd line right defense. Russel is a warrior but why do they insist on playing him so much on his off side ? I get the injury thing but I am amazed at this coaching staff and their deployment of players in positions that they are not comfortable. See JP on left wing,Slepeshev on right wing and Russel on RD.
Instead, since his brother Ryan joined the team – they really are at the bottom of the pile!
We’ve been saying that since at least 2013-14.
I’m not sure there is a single team in the league who would switch prospect pipelines with us. Ours is truly awful.
NHL team has some huge pieces, but is hindered by nmc for the foreseeable future.
Every team only has four callups after the trade deadline, apart from emergency callups for injury. The Oilers have used two…Bear and Rattie.
20-25 teams.
Tampa, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Boston, Nashville, Anaheim, Winnipeg clearly would not…that gets one to 25.
Which is why the Oilers should move on from this coaching staff.
Use of the term “forced” dump-in is the statistic begging the question. There is no way to know if the dump in was forced or intentional.
And when you have a guy like Aberg who comes from Nashville where he says their own system was to dump the puck in as much as possible, obviously this is the opposite of being “forced to” by a defenseman. Considering NAS’s success, I’m guessing our understanding of dump-ins is somewhat limited.
So, personally, I don’t take Benning’s stats in this regard to mean anything significant at all.
What I would like to see is a stat that tells us that when a puck is dumped in, how quickly does it leave the zone? Good defenders will attain possession and get the puck moving in the other direction.
How often when it is carried in, does the other team’s typical zone time last? Was it disrupted quickly? Again, I think this tells us a lot more about ability to defend.
All dump-ins vs. carry-ins really tell us is strategy moreso than ability (or respect for ability).
ArmchairGM,
Quinn Hughes
Andy Dufresne,
Okay we’ll go with the trade showcasing your best defenceman while inujred situation.
Much better, thank you.
godot10,
We were pretty dead before the trade deadline too though, us and MTL were rarely 3 games apart
Welcome to the latest version of Fantasy GMing!
As LT has repeatedly stated this team needs to start building up the prospects in the cupboard, shedding the handcuff contracts (Lucic, Russell), increase team speed and ultimately NOT trading away the fantastic contracts of RNH and Klefbom for older, more expensive players on short-term deals.
The obstacles as I see it are the ridiculous NMC and NTC contracts, so these players need to be convinced to move, and I really cannot support this GM and Coach (LT or Fenton for GM Quenneville or Todd Nelson for HC)
Taking pages out of VOR’s book, in this scenario the Oilers’ 1st round pick which would be 4-7th is traded to NYR for their TB and Boston 1st Rounders. The Bos pick is then traded with Ryan Strome to Detroit for Anthanasiou and a 2nd.
ROSTER:
M. Hoffman ($4,687,500) – C. McDavid ($12,500,000) – R. Nash ($2,225,000)
A. Athanasiou ($2,750,000) – L. Draisaitl ($8,500,000) – J. Puljujärvi ($925,000)
P. Åberg ($650,000) – R. Nugent-Hopkins ($6,000,000) – M. Grabner ($2,800,000)
J. Khaira ($675,000) – J. Pageau ($1,600,000) – W. Foegele ($746,667)
B. Malone ($650,000) M. Peca ($725,000)
Z. Chara ($2,500,000) – E. Karlsson ($6,500,000)
O. Klefbom ($4,167,000) – A. Larsson ($4,166,667)
D. Nurse ($2,750,000) – R. McKeown ($745,000)
R. Sproul ($785,000)
C. Talbot ($4,166,667) – A. Raanta ($1,250,000)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
NHL Salary Cap: $78,500,000
Cap Hit: $77,447,834
Cap Space: $1,052,166
BUYOUTS
B. Pouliot ($1,333,333)
Free Agent Signings
UFA YEARS CAP HIT
Peca, Matthew 3 $725,000
Sproul, Ryan 2 $785,000
Nash, Rick 3 $2,225,000 – hopefully Connor reels him in and a longer term at a lower cap hit makes it more appealling to him
Raanta, Antti 2 $1,250,000 – a younger and more capable back-up
Grabner, Michael 2 $2,800,000 – it’s worth a shot
Chara, Zdeno 2 $2,500,000 – he likely isn’t moving, but you never know, Connor make it so
RFA YEARS CAP HIT
Nurse, Darnell 2 $2,750,000 – Bridge Deal! Bridge Deal! Bridge Deal! No more overpays, PLEASE!!!!
Athanasiou, Andreas 2 $2,750,000 – See above
Trades
1. EDM gets Appleton, M + 2019 4th round pick (WPG) to WPG for Russell, K ($1,650,000 retained).
2. EDM gets Crouse, L + Burke, B + Steenbergen, T + 2019 2nd round pick (ARI) + 2020 3rd round pick (ARI) for Lucic, M. (the Doan replacement) + Gryba, E.+ to Laurent Brossoit
3. Here’s the BLOCKBUSTER: To EDM Karlsson, E + Hoffman, M ($500,000 retained) + Pageau, J ($1,500,000 retained) + 2019 4th round pick (OTT) + 2020 5th round pick (OTT)
To OTT: Matt Benning, Drake Cagguila, Anton Slepyshev, Yamamoto, K. + Crouse, L. + Burke, B. + Jones, C. + Lagesson, W. + Rights to John Marino, 2019 1st round pick (EDM) + 2019 2nd round pick (EDM) + 2019 3rd round pick (NYI) +2019 3rd round pick (NJD) +
Conditional 2020 2nd round pick (EDM) & 2021 1st round pick (EDM) if Karlsson resigns with Edm
4. To EDM Foegele, W, McKeown, R , 2019 3rd round pick (CAR)
To CAR: Kassian, Z., Montoya, A., Starrett, S., 2019 6th round pick (EDM)
5. To EDM Bastian, N, Quenneville, J, 2019 3rd round pick (ANA)
To NJD Sekera, A ($2,000,000 retained), Gambardella, J.
Lets go LT, er Fenton! Make it so!!
Somehow even Bruce’s spelling errors are a cut above.
Anyway, that pretty much diagnoses it, right there. Bear needs to make a hasty adjustment somewhere between chin strap and collar bone.
This Polar Bear Loves To Wear A Bucket On Her Head
Ottawa’s not going to take our garbage, prospects and picks and give us Karlsson and Hoffman.
Also, how do we go about getting around NMCs?
Just a feeling as I have no math, but isn’t the book on the London Knights that they always overplay prospects and therefore over inflate their numbers?
I’m skeptical of any London Knight prospect that puts up gaudy point totals. Call it the Sam Gagne and Robbie Shremp collary.
My feelings tell me Evan B’s numbers should be deflated 20% and then reassessed.
Having said all that, I would be thrilled if the Oilers draft a RHD. If scouts say he’s the RHD of choice, I’m fully on board.
Hughes is a LHD, Bouchard is a RHD. Bouchard is the better fit on the Oilers roster… I’m not convinced Hughes is even the better player, TBH. Not very many defencemen are able to lead the entire CHL in their draft year.
Hughes: 22.28 NHLE
Bouchard: 31.94 NHLE
For reference:
Dahlin: 23.2 NHLE
Svechnikov: 40.25
Zadina: 29.49
Tkachuk: 23.78
Dobson: 21.1
Not suggesting that Bouchard is better than Dahlin, just showing that these numbers are absolutely outstanding, moreso when you consider he’s a defenseman playing on a team with very little scoring support.
Well you are right. This is a fantasy.
If you are going to repeat this exercise I would suggest less trades and make them SOMEWHAT BELIEVABLE.
Also state the reasons why the Oilers trading partner would make the move. Or why the UFA would sign for the stated money and term.
On that note, Dillon Simpson was just recalled on emergency loan. I guess this means Sekera will miss material time?
It was well explained several times. If you dont wnat to go read it then at least stop compaining that youre confused.
Add to that the fact that he was 2 weeks too young to be in the 2017 and he reportedly has slower boots and I think he might be one of those guys who might kill junior but have troubles in the NHL.
Probably will be a NHLer, but not like others in the range.
2008 is an interesting draft in terms of Dmen and might have some parallels to this year
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html
Note: I’m not a draft expert by any means
I don’t like NHLE for defencemen comparisons, especially at a floor like 22.
They’re both late birthdays(days apart) and one’s playing vs college, one junior.
The NCAA has what are basically strong AHL level 22 year old forwards to play against.
If you look at Hughes’ points against his team’s leaders, and his league’s leaders, he’s a kid who turned 18 this season, playing defense, in the middle of a list of 21-22 year old forwards.
Anyways… I know Bouchard’s totals are nutty, I just think there’s context to the disparity in numbers, interleague differences and other factors.
Another thing I like about Hughes is his very strong 16/17 year old campaign in the US national team, between USHL league play and IIHF stuff. He compares very well to Zach Werenski.
Even discounted 20%, Bouchard’s NHLE is better than any draft-eligible player not named Svechnikov or Zadina. And I don’t think it’s accurate to suggest that his team is giving him a push: he’s the best player on the team and it isn’t even close. Check out the stats and you’ll see what I mean.
€√¥£€^$,
I like the part Arizona gives us stuff of value for Lucic with no retention
Andy Dufresne,
I still get to be confused if the explanation is confusing!!
Death By Misadventure,
“I’m skeptical of any London Knight prospect that puts up gaudy point totals. Call it the Sam Gagne and Robbie Shremp collary.”
You should be skeptical. P Kane, Domi, Horvat, Dvorak, Marner, Tkachuk,…. Run Away from that Organization!!
Woodguy v2.0,
Those are good points you make. And I am very nervous both of the date of birth and the speed issue.
But some reports say his skating is good. Made a powerhouse Knights team at 15/16.
McKeens Hockey: (https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/2018-nhl-draft-mckeens-mid-season-rankings/)
Climbing only 21 spots, but more impressive as he started off at a higher level in December than Kaut is now, is London blueliner Evan Bouchard (#7). At the time, there were some concerns about his foot speed. Not only has he put those concerns to rest with steady displays of solid top end velocity, showing his ability to defend against rushes from some of the players long considered to be among the quickest in the OHL, but between his plus shot, advanced hockey brain and quarterbacking style, it is no real surprise that he is currently seven points clear as the highest scoring blueliner in the OHL.
Nevertheless, I am concerned with any mention of foot speed issues.
Oilers last 26 Goals, Connor has 18 Points.
PC – you have failed us.
ArmchairGM,
Getting a push isn’t having a good team, it’s getting a TOI push.
Bouchard appears to have by far the most eTOI of any draft-eligible defenseman in the OHL, and from my viewings, looks like he’s out there for all of every powerplay.
And
Of Bouchard’s 1.3 PPG, 0.67 is 5v5.
Rasmus Sandin, as a comparison, has 0.55.
Not such an ocean there.
That’s the meaning behind being wary of a London Knight.
Matt Tkachuk had me fooled, though.
Not sure why some are bashing the Knights?
I would argue no Junior team has produced more quality NHL players & Impact players, over the Last decade ….
Not all of their Top Point prospects will be successful in the NHL; but that is across the board for every Junior team.
With regards to London, they have churned out their fair share of legit players to cancel out some the duds. They usually average an NHLer or two per year these days and some of them are really good .
2006: Steve Mason
2007: Kane, (Gagner’s a half mark here)
2008: no one
2009: Kadri (Oshawa responsible for Tavares)
2010: no one
2011: Namestnikov
2012: Maatta, also Athanasiou, J. Anderson, Tierney have nearly established themselves
2013: Horvat’s legit, Domi still has upside, Zadorov has turned a corner
2014: Dvorak’s similar to the Athanasiou/Anderson class
2015: Marner’s nearly a great player
2016: Tkachuk *spits* is good, potentially can add Juolevi and Jones to this
2017: Thomas developing similar to Horvat
I think there’s something to be said for London’s development of forwards. Lot of good names. Not many defensemen but usually the first rounders have mostly turned out. I’m not necessarily a big Bouchard booster (I haven’t focused on the 2018 D that much as I want a forward) but I think the London effect is only worrisome because of what happened 10 years ago. It’s not something that bothers me now, and Bouchard has a 40(!) point gap on the 2nd best Knight post Thomas and Pu trades. He’s not riding anyone’s coattails there.
Noah fDobson doesn’t get mentioned much but 17 goals and point a game looks good for a 2000 born.
In on ice testing at top prospect he was the fastest both forward and backward..Ty smith also tested well but he is 5-11 vs 6-3 for Dobson.
Hughes and Bouchard are both of 1999 born and there is a big difference between them and a 2000 born.
Boqvist. Was born in Augist 2000 so he is 10 months younger.Not much chance he will be around when oil pick .
So is Erik Karlsson “getting a push”? Or does he play 30 minutes each game because he’s far-and-away the best player on the Sens roster? That’s my point about Bouchard.
Max Jones 18 g and 3 a is one of the stranger stat lines I have seen
I also was focused on the forwards for the 2018 draft. Big Walhstrom fan. That said, Wahlstrom is no longer an option (with the Oilers likely drafting 9,10,or 11). So which forwards remain an option?
I have Farabee as an interesting option – dynamic player.
I’m also a big fan of Kotkaniemi, though his skating appears to be in question.
Alas, the Oilers likely take a D in the 1st.
I’m not sure how much competition our 8-9-10 spot will have in regard to D selected.
The lottery is going to fuck any predictions like that up.
Every time I run a simulator, at least one team from 9-15 hits top 3.
This is what the Oilers have created, and they’re about to benefit from it again.
If we win the lottery, are we the supervillains of the NHL?
Indeed. I’m glad some others are recognizing now (at least some other posters here are interested in London and Bouchard recently). From what I see from Bouchard, things are very good. But my broken record preceeds me. I do recognize that he’s older.
I think one year shouldn’t be a terribly frightening statistic in a decade+ of good years. The system is strong from their junior teams up. Although even as a fan I admit that London can sometimes be a bully and get their way in order to get the best prospects through draft trades, like they did with Domi for example, and they got Tavares in a similar manner (though well after he was established).
As an aside: Jack Roslovic was drafted by London after Winnpeg drafted him, but unfortunately the kid was too good and went straight to Manitoba instead…
There are people on this site that does not like this idea. I have brought it up twice and the same 2 or 3 people here are against it.
I like the idea. It good to have a big body play with Connor and Ryan to keep the other teams honest. You can’t defend our skill players if you are not on the ice at the same time occasionally. It give our top line a different look and the other team off balance. JJ appears to be a good study and a team 1st player so why not reward him with time on the top line. I think this will up JJ game.
Dobson is an interesting player and will likely be picked in the 6-10 range like Bouchard. I would happy with either, I just posted about Bouchard because his numbers are unbelievable for a guy being touted as likely being available at #7.
Boqvist would be a dream come true.
Glad for the discussion.
4th line center can be had at any given time. dime a dozen. We should be exploring the top end for JJ
I have Farabee as the highest of the second-tier forwards, but I don’t think I would pick him in the top-10. If I was drafting I would have him 11th.
And what a story it would be. Love Khaira and how far he’s come, and how far he might go.
ArmchairGM,
Uh, that’s the NHL.
Obviously it’s indicative of NHL success if you eat minutes in the NHL and are successful because, well.
Whereas the translation factor of eating minutes as a late-birthday draft eligible on a major junior franchise with a history of late-birthday draft eligibles being fed minutes to doing so in the NHL is not 1.0.
He’s the best defenceman on his team, yes.
But there’s not a way to prove that the difference between his TOI totals and other best team’s top defenceman’s TOI totals is meritocratic and precise.
The fact that adjusting his counts/gp to rates/toi closes the gap so immensely points to the opposite.
I like Wahlstrom a lot too, I still think the Oilers have a chance at him because there’s a decent chance they end up at 8 OV, and maybe 7th if no one skips ahead of them. I haven’t looked at the odds of them dropping a couple spots but last year seemed like a really unlikely result.
Another I like is Isac Lundestrom but I have some doubts about his offense and he’s a late 99 birthday too.
So you have Dobson, Smith, Bouchard and… Merkley ahead of Farabee then?
2017/18 season
Remember when Hendrick was not a useful NHLer last year.
Hendricks 60 games, 13 points, 39 PIM
Kassian 65 games, 17 points, 90 PIM
Caggiula 57 games, 15 points, 22 PIM
Slepyshev 41 games, 10 points, 6 PIM
Pakarianen, 35 games, 3 points, 4 PIM
flyfish1168,
I totally agree! JJ is wated as a 4th line center. He is definetly a top 9 forward in my opinion.
My worry is that Bouchard is Cody Franson. Maybe a slightly better Cody Franson.
Boqvist could almost be in the 2019 draft, Bouchard could almost be in the 2017 draft.
Hughes and Smith and Dobson are better skaters.
I have no doubt Bouchard can pass and shoot, but is he mobile enough?
There’s not a huge separation for the d-men and I’d honestly be happy with any of them, but I probably have it:
Boqvist
Smith/Hughes
Dobson
Bouchard
Wilde
But I am far from an expert myself.
I don’t get why he’s getting the “slow boots” narrative.
From my viewings he seems like an Ovechkin-McDavid type skater.
I probably get eye-rolls when I always say this but he is a rover, controls the ice, but also takes McDavid/Hall/Orr rushes up the ice, solo or 2-on-1.
Not slow at all and seems to be in quite a bit of control of his blades and legs. Plus, he’s a RHD who has a decent shot, and plays LD just as much as he does RD. Versatile.
You know I keep posting this rant but if we are looking for a cheap right winger that seems to play McDavid game we can easily dip into our cupboard past.
Iw in order for this to happen we need a coaching change and a GM change.
I firmly believe that Nail Yakupov would be a better option at right side to Mcdavid than any option on our roster. And he will be cheap. He knows the players is beloved by fans.
Yes he has some gaffes who does not, but take away all the stigma and you watch how he played with mcdavid on youtube it looks clear as compared to watching how mcdavid has interacted play-making with other teammates that yakupov had some chemistry there.
He is a good kid who had poor coaching and feel he is still unlockable, he may not have the high ceiling but would he post 15-22 goals on mcdavid flank… i believe so..
he would be cheap. and why not, why the fcuk not…. be better than anything we have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ips9wptq7O0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXaVbxKT-Rg
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/mclellans-gamble-on-mcdavid-yakupov-paying-off-for-oilers/
http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/oilers-mcdavid-pouliot-yakupov-trio-turning-into-one-of-nhls-best-lines
I agree. Edmonton should have held on to him in the first place and remained consistent with him on McDavid’s wing.
No consistency with young players here it seems. Hopefully it doesn’t mess them up too badly.
He’s not just the best defenseman on his team though – he’s the best player, and it isn’t even close. AND, he’s also the best defenseman in all of CHL – including 19- and 20-year-olds. That’s not insignificant, and not simply a product of TOI. I’m sure every team has at least one defensemen that plays 25+ minutes, none of them achieved the results Bouchard did – even those on stacked teams and even those who are up to 2 years older than he is.
It’s a pretty incredible achievement, even though he’s a 1999 birthday and playing cherry minutes. (Don’t tell me Dobson and Smith aren’t getting cherry minutes also, either. They are.)
Not Merkley. The others you mentioned, plus Hughes, Tkachuk, Walhstrom and Boqvist. Not in that order.
I cannot fathom Paul Coffey being associated with any team that can’t scout a defenceman.
Bury me up to my neck in the Nevada desert, but I’m sticking by my opinion(particularly as I’m nowhere near Nevada).
Professor Q,
His contract i think was one of the biggest issues in keeping him
and TMAc unable to help the young russian develop
Please don’t leave us for the Golden Knights.
Who thinks the Islanders look like the old Oilers?
Lots of fire power up front
Weak goaltending
Brutal defense
Watch for them to improve that defense BEFORE JT signs on the dotted line.
Maybe a first and a second for a decent young dman???
Yeah, I wouldn’t pick Bouchard over Boqvist. Hughes seems to be the consensus #3 D, although in limited viewings I wouldn’t put him above the Dobson / Bouchard / Smith crowd. Skating ability does play into NHL teams rankings however, as does handedness, so I think they’ll likely go thus:
Dahlin 1
Boqvist 4 / 5
Hughes 6 / 7
Dobson 8
Bouchard 9
Smith 10
ArmchairGM,
I don’t know what you think I think, based on the argument here.
I didn’t say his point totals are insignificant, I didn’t say they’re “the product” of TOI, and I didn’t mention my opinion on Dobson or Smith once.
I simply gave some context to the discussion of a comparison of raw NHLE’s between Hughes and Bouchard.
For the record, though, as of this morning I go
Boqvist Hughes
Smith Bouchard
Sandin Wilde
I don’t think Yak does enough to warrant playing with McDavid. If he was Laine who is already an elite scorer fine. But like the current wingers he can’t score enough to be a passenger. This also concerns me about Rattie.
Neither brings any physicality as Maroon at least did, which sadly might be still important if Connor can’t have players that can make a line so good the refs and league have no choice but to make calls and he’s getting hacked.
Man I hope the Gords return the Oilers to their rightful justice balancing draft position. Dahlin or Svechnikov would sort a lot of issues out assuming PC didn’t immediately hoop it.
+1000
For me it’s Dahlin Boqvist Smyth Dobson.
Love the way you put this. It is unbelievably stupid.
Sandin is also playing on probably the best team in the CHL.
JimmyV1965,
I know… Merkley’s probably the better bet, but he’d torment me if I had to call his name.
So many red flags but so much offense.
Does anyone know what the research says about very late birthdays? Do these players not meet expectations in the NHL?zhe had pretty good numbers last year too. Just as good as Juolevi’s.
Wouldn’t bother me a bit. Merkley is an August 2000 birthday – same as Boqvist – so he might need a bit more time than some of the other RD prospects, but his ceiling is quite high. For him to be over p/gp in the O this year is quite remarkable, really – and to think that he went 62, 12-43-55 as a 16-year-old is incredible!
Edit: leading scouts have him ranked between 18 and 25, at that draft position he could be a huge, huge steal.
Maybe Merkley even falls to the second round. Will be fascinating to see. Funny how NHL GMs rush to judge the character of teenagers.
JimmyV1965,
Yeah, I wasn’t referring to the off-ice stuff.
Could easily see him getting DeAngelo’d though.
The problem with being an Oiler fan, for me anyway, is I spend too much time in fantasyland. Imagine if we can somehow draft Merkley in the second round. Or imagine if we can somehow trade for Karlsson. I’m just glad we won’t likely have the Merkley decision. Unless we trade down. Imagine the haul we could get trading down!!! LOL
I don’t have links but basically kids that bloom early have more high end potential based on all those that have made the league.
Elite players are usually always elite and hit it early in the NHL. Like Laine. JP might also have a great career, but at this point no where near the guy drafted one spot ahead.
Late birthdays have more time to develop at an age when it matters most. At 23 plus the chances of being an impact player drop a lot. A career possible. There are always those that make it big, but are so few that trying to find them is a waste of effort in a league with a cap and roster limit.
It would only work if you could have as many players as want with no restrictions. But then the teams with money always win like the good old days.
So draft the players with the most chance of being impact players. The rest are easier to get.
For The Athletic: Ty Rattie’s first chapter
https://theathletic.com/280351/2018/03/19/ty-rattie-has-become-an-overnight-sensation-for-the-edmonton-oilers/
Players 19 yr season Jan cutoff
Hall 65gm 15evg .231 evgpg
Marner 77gm 15evg .194
Bennett 77gm 15 evg .194
Barkov 71gm 13 evg .183
Horvat 68gm 12evg .176
Mackinnon 64gm 11evg .172
Puljujarvi 55gm 9 evg .164
Galchenyuk 65gm 10 evg .154
Ehlers 72gm 11evg .153
Dubois 72gm 11evg .153
Couturier 77gm 11evg .143
O,Reilly 77gm 11 evg .143
Seguin 74gm 10 evg .135
Tkachuk 76gm 10 evg .132
Just as a point of reference.
He has earned a shot at being a shot on the pp.
rickithebear,
Surprised to see Dubois on there. Doesn’t seem to have the offensive upside of the others
Imagine if we cheered for a franchise that didn’t suck goat balls,
Pure fantasy
I’m with you,
I don’t see the potential downside of Bouchard
I would be thrilled if the Oilers drafted him.
Which means he will be selected one spot prior
The way this season is going I’m guessing that we draft the second coming of
Marc A. Pouliot
Some good company there.
Hopefully JP finishes the season strong.
Not correcting for age on NHLE can lead to a 50% error in true translatable offence.
50%!
Kind of important.!
Here is a list of all the may 01 to sept 15 players in 1st round of each draft.
2010
#4 R Johansson
#5 Niederreiter
#7 Skinner
14 schmaltz
19 bjugstad
24 K. Hayes
26 kuznetsov
29 Etem
2011
3 hubredeau
5 Strome
16 Armia
30 Rakkel
2012
11 Forsberg
12 Grigorenko
18 taravainen
20 Laughton
21 jankowski
2013
1 mackinnon
2 Barkov
20 Mantha
29 Dickson
2014
4 Bennett
5 Del Cole
6 Virtanen
8 Nylander
11 Fiala
15 Larkin
16 Milano
18 Tuch
22 Kapanen
24 McCann
25 Pasternak
29 Kemp’s
2015
4 Marner
11 Crouse
12 Guryanov
13 Barzal
28 Beauvillier
30 Merkley
2016
3 Dubois
4 Puljujarvi
7 Keller
19 Bellows
22 Rubotson
2017
11 Vilardi
13 Suzuki
19 Norris
20 Thomas
You have to understand that Ontario media schools tell writers to write to the audiences grade level.
They tell them to write at a grade 3 comprehension level for the Toronto area.
Toronto media creates ill informed standards and expectations of players.
Puljujarvi is 19.
Performing at a high standard for his age.
Prospects of his height can experience a 6-18 month offset in performance curves
Very interesting, Mr TheBear!
What do you think this means apropos our earlier conversation re: Evan Bouchard and the other defensemen available in the June draft?
(Interesting to note that Ryan Merkley’s 17-year-old season results weren’t much different from his 16-year-old season. It would be interesting to know what the differences were in usage, game strategy, etc.)