Blue Side of Lonesome

by Lowetide

Ty Rattie scored the goal, but Jesse Puljujarvi found iron, and should be the actual future on right-wing for the Edmonton Oilers. Unless there’s a real plot twist, and I’m talking flipping the script, the Finn will win the day and be a prominent player opening night in the fall. If we can agree on this, and land sakes it makes the most sense, then why I am still worrying over this? Alas, I have seen the Edmonton Oilers in their natural habitat and know the possibilities are as wide as the prairies on the first day of summer.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

TOM DOOLEY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 5-4-0, goal differential -2 (10 points)
  • March 2017: 6-2-1, goal differential +13 (13 points)
  • March 2018: 4-4-1, goal differential -1 (9 points)

The early Rattie goal seemed to wake up the Lightning and they put the boots to Edmonton pretty much the rest of the way. I saw some angry comments on the blog yesterday, outraged tweets, too. Impressive that people still care so much during G72. I would, however, suggest to you that this edition of the Oilers are going to have a helluva time against any and all Stanley Cup contenders.

AFTER 72, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 27-38-7, goal differential -49 (61 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 39-24-9, goal differential +31 (87 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 31-36-5, goal differential -33 (67 points)

It’s just so far. 20 points now, between last year and this one. You know, I’ve studied hundreds of seasons over seasons, mostly in baseball but also in hockey. And you just don’t grab 30 points worth of improvement every second season. Even in an era of free agency, there are only so many impact players available and they get divided up, leaving teams with not much of a gap one to another. What’s that line from Peter Chiarelli? Close around the margins? Yeah. You might find a kid on the farm with a nasty slider who can fool batters, but your veteran catcher can’t run worth a crap and your Cy Young candidate has buggered himself up so badly there’s three mile an hour between his fastball and change. It’s always something. The Oilers are just on the blue side of lonesome, right next to the heartbreak hotel. It’s a long way from the beach.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-2-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 4-4-1, 9 points in nine games

There’s a little room to wheel here, should the Oilers get solid goaltending from Cam Talbot and the penalty killing holds at recent levels. We know Connor McDavid is firing on all pistons, so this could be a fun week ahead.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Andrej Sekera played less than 10 minutes due to injury. I thought he was just coming around on the penalty kill, hope he won’t be out long.
  • Matt Benning went 2-3 with Sekera and 1-5 with Darnell Nurse in a game that was a struggle. The Lightning are both fast and aggressive, meaning the defenders are going to be trying to catch up a lot.
  • Klefbom-Bear went 8-18 in 9:58, although did manage 6-5 in 5:34 with Connor McDavid. That meant the duo was 2-13 in the 4+minutes without 97. Oscar played well to my eye, his rookie partner made a couple of good plays but had a helluva time with the Tampa Bay group. I’m not certain the wisdom of using Benning sparsely while Bear struggled, although it was an education I’m sure.
  • Nurse-Larsson were 8-13 in 10:46, 1-1 GF. Nurse was 5-17 against Kucherov, who was flying while the Oilers had little answer.
  • Al Montoya stopped 37 of 40, .925. It might have been his best outing as an Oilers goalie.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Caggiula-Draisaitl-Slepyshev went 3-11 (Caggiula) and 4-7 on the evening, Jesse Puljujarvi joined in and went 3-3 with Leon during the game. Draisaitl was actually pretty effective against Kucherov-Miller-Stamkos (6-5 in 6:39) but the work cut into his offensive sorties.
  • Lucic-Strome-Puljujarvi went 4-10, 0-3 in high danger chances. Lucic looked engaged and played a physical game, I think the third line is a good idea for the rest of this season. JP had a brilliant chance to tie it, goalie didn’t move on a shot that hit the post. Strome played well, he was involved and made some positive plays with the puck. I’d like to see this line again.
  • Nuge-McDavid-Rattie went 8-19, 1-1 in GF. Hedman-Stralman were very effective against 97, it was like Pronger was out there. If the Lightning can stay healthy, they have a chance to win it all. Nuge was very strong to my eye, I really am liking him on portside (and remember, I was agin it).
  • Cammalleri-Khaira-Pakarinen went 6-6 in 6:28 pedestrian minutes. I find myself wishing Khaira was playing with more dynamic people.

JESSE PULJUJARVI

The young man is 740 minutes into his first full season and we’re unlikely to get a bunch more information on him for next year. JP is performing pretty well on the Strome line, he has 11 goals on 119 shots. He has 49 individual high danger scoring chances in 55 games, all but one of his points are primary. I badly want to write a story on him over at The Athletic, but I’ve already written the story (worrying over impatient franchise being patient) and we’re just going to have to watch how this plays out. I am encouraged by his season.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, I’m also part of the round table this morning at 9. Scheduled to appear at 10:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. Expanding the playoffs.
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings PBP. The team ended on a strong note.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers running out the string.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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ArmchairGM

rickithebear:
Not correcting for age on NHLE can lead to a 50% error in true translatable offence.
50%!
Kind of important.!

Very interesting, Mr TheBear!

What do you think this means apropos our earlier conversation re: Evan Bouchard and the other defensemen available in the June draft?

(Interesting to note that Ryan Merkley’s 17-year-old season results weren’t much different from his 16-year-old season. It would be interesting to know what the differences were in usage, game strategy, etc.)

rickithebear

Bling: Some good company there.

Hopefully JP finishes the season strong.

You have to understand that Ontario media schools tell writers to write to the audiences grade level.
They tell them to write at a grade 3 comprehension level for the Toronto area.

Toronto media creates ill informed standards and expectations of players.

Puljujarvi is 19.
Performing at a high standard for his age.
Prospects of his height can experience a 6-18 month offset in performance curves

rickithebear

Not correcting for age on NHLE can lead to a 50% error in true translatable offence.
50%!
Kind of important.!
Here is a list of all the may 01 to sept 15 players in 1st round of each draft.
2010
#4 R Johansson
#5 Niederreiter
#7 Skinner
14 schmaltz
19 bjugstad
24 K. Hayes
26 kuznetsov
29 Etem
2011
3 hubredeau
5 Strome
16 Armia
30 Rakkel
2012
11 Forsberg
12 Grigorenko
18 taravainen
20 Laughton
21 jankowski
2013
1 mackinnon
2 Barkov
20 Mantha
29 Dickson
2014
4 Bennett
5 Del Cole
6 Virtanen
8 Nylander
11 Fiala
15 Larkin
16 Milano
18 Tuch
22 Kapanen
24 McCann
25 Pasternak
29 Kemp’s
2015
4 Marner
11 Crouse
12 Guryanov
13 Barzal
28 Beauvillier
30 Merkley
2016
3 Dubois
4 Puljujarvi
7 Keller
19 Bellows
22 Rubotson
2017
11 Vilardi
13 Suzuki
19 Norris
20 Thomas

Bling

rickithebear:
Players 19 yr season Jan cutoff
Hall 65gm 15evg .231 evgpg
Marner 77gm 15evg .194
Bennett 77gm 15 evg .194
Barkov 71gm 13 evg .183
Horvat 68gm 12evg .176
Mackinnon 64gm 11evg .172
Puljujarvi 55gm 9 evg .164
Galchenyuk 65gm 10 evg .154
Ehlers 72gm 11evg .153
Dubois 72gm 11evg .153
Couturier 77gm 11evg .143
O,Reilly 77gm 11 evg .143
Seguin 74gm 10 evg .135
Tkachuk 76gm 10 evg .132

Just as a point of reference.

He has earned a shot at being a shot on the pp.

Some good company there.

Hopefully JP finishes the season strong.

Pescador

Professor Q: I don’t get why he’s getting the “slow boots” narrative.

From my viewings he seems like an Ovechkin-McDavid type skater.

I probably get eye-rolls when I always say this but he is a rover, controls the ice, but also takes McDavid/Hall/Orr rushes up the ice, solo or 2-on-1.

Not slow at all and seems to be in quite a bit of control of his blades and legs. Plus, he’s a RHD who has a decent shot, and plays LD just as much as he does RD. Versatile.

I’m with you,
I don’t see the potential downside of Bouchard
I would be thrilled if the Oilers drafted him.
Which means he will be selected one spot prior
The way this season is going I’m guessing that we draft the second coming of
Marc A. Pouliot

Pescador

JimmyV1965: The problem with being an Oiler fan, for me anyway, is I spend too much time in fantasyland. Imagine if we can somehow draft Merkley in the second round. Or imagine if we can somehow trade for Karlsson. I’m just glad we won’t likely have the Merkley decision. Unless we trade down. Imagine the haul we could get trading down!!! LOL

Imagine if we cheered for a franchise that didn’t suck goat balls,
Pure fantasy

leadfarmer

rickithebear,

Surprised to see Dubois on there. Doesn’t seem to have the offensive upside of the others

rickithebear

Players 19 yr season Jan cutoff
Hall 65gm 15evg .231 evgpg
Marner 77gm 15evg .194
Bennett 77gm 15 evg .194
Barkov 71gm 13 evg .183
Horvat 68gm 12evg .176
Mackinnon 64gm 11evg .172
Puljujarvi 55gm 9 evg .164
Galchenyuk 65gm 10 evg .154
Ehlers 72gm 11evg .153
Dubois 72gm 11evg .153
Couturier 77gm 11evg .143
O,Reilly 77gm 11 evg .143
Seguin 74gm 10 evg .135
Tkachuk 76gm 10 evg .132

Just as a point of reference.

He has earned a shot at being a shot on the pp.

Scungilli Slushy

JimmyV1965: Does anyone know what the research says about very late birthdays? Do these players not meet expectations in the NHL?zhe had pretty good numbers last year too. Just as good as Juolevi’s.

I don’t have links but basically kids that bloom early have more high end potential based on all those that have made the league.

Elite players are usually always elite and hit it early in the NHL. Like Laine. JP might also have a great career, but at this point no where near the guy drafted one spot ahead.

Late birthdays have more time to develop at an age when it matters most. At 23 plus the chances of being an impact player drop a lot. A career possible. There are always those that make it big, but are so few that trying to find them is a waste of effort in a league with a cap and roster limit.

It would only work if you could have as many players as want with no restrictions. But then the teams with money always win like the good old days.

So draft the players with the most chance of being impact players. The rest are easier to get.

JimmyV1965

Wilde:
JimmyV1965,

Yeah, I wasn’t referring to the off-ice stuff.

Could easily see him getting DeAngelo’d though.

The problem with being an Oiler fan, for me anyway, is I spend too much time in fantasyland. Imagine if we can somehow draft Merkley in the second round. Or imagine if we can somehow trade for Karlsson. I’m just glad we won’t likely have the Merkley decision. Unless we trade down. Imagine the haul we could get trading down!!! LOL

Wilde

JimmyV1965,

Yeah, I wasn’t referring to the off-ice stuff.

Could easily see him getting DeAngelo’d though.

JimmyV1965

Wilde:
JimmyV1965,

I know… Merkley’s probably the better bet, but he’d torment me if I had to call his name.

So many red flags but so much offense.

Maybe Merkley even falls to the second round. Will be fascinating to see. Funny how NHL GMs rush to judge the character of teenagers.

ArmchairGM

Wilde:
JimmyV1965,

I know… Merkley’s probably the better bet, but he’d torment me if I had to call his name.

So many red flags but so much offense.

Wouldn’t bother me a bit. Merkley is an August 2000 birthday – same as Boqvist – so he might need a bit more time than some of the other RD prospects, but his ceiling is quite high. For him to be over p/gp in the O this year is quite remarkable, really – and to think that he went 62, 12-43-55 as a 16-year-old is incredible!

Edit: leading scouts have him ranked between 18 and 25, at that draft position he could be a huge, huge steal.

JimmyV1965

ArmchairGM: He’s not just the best defenseman on his team though – he’s the best player, and it isn’t even close. AND, he’s also the best defenseman in all of CHL – including 19- and 20-year-olds. That’s not insignificant, and not simply a product of TOI. I’m sure every team has at least one defensemen that plays 25+ minutes, none of them achieved the results Bouchard did – even those on stacked teams and even those who are up to 2 years older than he is.

It’s a pretty incredible achievement, even though he’s a 1999 birthday and playing cherry minutes. (Don’t tell me Dobson and Smith aren’t getting cherry minutes also, either. They are.)

Does anyone know what the research says about very late birthdays? Do these players not meet expectations in the NHL?zhe had pretty good numbers last year too. Just as good as Juolevi’s.

Wilde

JimmyV1965,

I know… Merkley’s probably the better bet, but he’d torment me if I had to call his name.

So many red flags but so much offense.

JimmyV1965

Wilde:
ArmchairGM,

Getting a push isn’t having a good team, it’s getting a TOI push.

Bouchard appears to have by far the most eTOI of any draft-eligible defenseman in the OHL, and from my viewings, looks like he’s out there for all of every powerplay.

And

Of Bouchard’s 1.3 PPG, 0.67 is 5v5.

Rasmus Sandin, as a comparison, has 0.55.

Not such an ocean there.

That’s the meaning behind being wary of a London Knight.

Matt Tkachuk had me fooled, though.

Sandin is also playing on probably the best team in the CHL.

Gayfish

Wilde:
I can’t wrap my mind around these two things:

– Playing Klefbom while hurt because the team needs him that badly

– Trading Klefbom because they… don’t need him that badly?

Love the way you put this. It is unbelievably stupid.

Scungilli Slushy

Wilde:
ArmchairGM,

I don’t know what you think I think, based on the argument here.

I didn’t say his point totals are insignificant, I didn’t say they’re “the product” of TOI, and I didn’t mention my opinion on Dobson or Smith once.

I simply gave some context to the discussion of a comparison of raw NHLE’s between Hughes and Bouchard.

For the record, though, as of this morning I go

Boqvist Hughes
Smith Bouchard
Sandin Wilde

For me it’s Dahlin Boqvist Smyth Dobson.

JimmyV1965

russ99:
GriffCity,

Bear is getting a cup of coffee. Nobody should think he’s the finished project, not should he be on the plans as a NHL top-7 guy next year.

Smart teams give kids a look at the pro level so they see what it takes to be a regular in the toughest league in the world, then they change some habitsand are driven to continue their development to get back there.

Benning seems to be yet another victim of Chia promising NHL playing time to college signees, something that has to change.

+1000

Scungilli Slushy

housty17:
You know I keep posting this rant but if we are looking for a cheap right winger that seems to playMcDavid game we can easily dip into our cupboard past.

Iw in order for this to happen we need a coaching change and a GM change.

I firmly believe that Nail Yakupov would be a better option at right side to Mcdavid than any option on our roster. And he will be cheap. He knows the players is beloved by fans.

Yes he has some gaffes who does not, but take away all the stigma and you watch how he played with mcdavid on youtube it looks clear as compared to watching how mcdavid has interacted play-making with other teammates that yakupov had some chemistry there.

He is a good kid who had poor coaching and feel he is still unlockable, he may not have the high ceiling but would he post 15-22 goals on mcdavid flank… i believe so..

he would be cheap. and why not, why the fcuk not…. be better than anything we have.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ips9wptq7O0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXaVbxKT-Rg

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/mclellans-gamble-on-mcdavid-yakupov-paying-off-for-oilers/

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/oilers-mcdavid-pouliot-yakupov-trio-turning-into-one-of-nhls-best-lines

I don’t think Yak does enough to warrant playing with McDavid. If he was Laine who is already an elite scorer fine. But like the current wingers he can’t score enough to be a passenger. This also concerns me about Rattie.

Neither brings any physicality as Maroon at least did, which sadly might be still important if Connor can’t have players that can make a line so good the refs and league have no choice but to make calls and he’s getting hacked.

Man I hope the Gords return the Oilers to their rightful justice balancing draft position. Dahlin or Svechnikov would sort a lot of issues out assuming PC didn’t immediately hoop it.

Wilde

ArmchairGM,

I don’t know what you think I think, based on the argument here.

I didn’t say his point totals are insignificant, I didn’t say they’re “the product” of TOI, and I didn’t mention my opinion on Dobson or Smith once.

I simply gave some context to the discussion of a comparison of raw NHLE’s between Hughes and Bouchard.

For the record, though, as of this morning I go

Boqvist Hughes
Smith Bouchard
Sandin Wilde

ArmchairGM

dustrock: My worry is that Bouchard is Cody Franson.Maybe a slightly better Cody Franson.

Boqvist could almost be in the 2019 draft, Bouchard could almost be in the 2017 draft.

Hughes and Smith and Dobson are better skaters.

I have no doubt Bouchard can pass and shoot, but is he mobile enough?

There’s nota huge separation for the d-men and I’d honestly be happy with any of them, but I probably have it:

Boqvist
Smith/Hughes
Dobson
Bouchard
Wilde

But I am far from an expert myself.

Yeah, I wouldn’t pick Bouchard over Boqvist. Hughes seems to be the consensus #3 D, although in limited viewings I wouldn’t put him above the Dobson / Bouchard / Smith crowd. Skating ability does play into NHL teams rankings however, as does handedness, so I think they’ll likely go thus:

Dahlin 1
Boqvist 4 / 5
Hughes 6 / 7
Dobson 8
Bouchard 9
Smith 10

Woogie63

Who thinks the Islanders look like the old Oilers?

Lots of fire power up front
Weak goaltending
Brutal defense

Watch for them to improve that defense BEFORE JT signs on the dotted line.

Maybe a first and a second for a decent young dman???

Professor Q

hunter1909:
I cannot fathom Paul Coffey being associated with any team that can’t scout a defenceman.

Bury me up to my neck in the Nevada desert, but I’m sticking by my opinion(particularly as I’m nowhere near Nevada).

Please don’t leave us for the Golden Knights.

housty17

Professor Q,

His contract i think was one of the biggest issues in keeping him
and TMAc unable to help the young russian develop

hunter1909

I cannot fathom Paul Coffey being associated with any team that can’t scout a defenceman.

Bury me up to my neck in the Nevada desert, but I’m sticking by my opinion(particularly as I’m nowhere near Nevada).

ArmchairGM

bendelson: So you have Dobson, Smith, Bouchard and… Merkley ahead of Farabee then?

Not Merkley. The others you mentioned, plus Hughes, Tkachuk, Walhstrom and Boqvist. Not in that order.

ArmchairGM

Wilde:
ArmchairGM,

Uh, that’s the NHL.

Obviously it’s indicative of NHL success if you eat minutes in the NHL and are successful because, well.

Whereas the translation factor of eating minutes as a late-birthday draft eligible on a major junior franchise with a history of late-birthday draft eligibles being fed minutes to doing so in the NHL is not 1.0.

He’s the best defenceman on his team, yes.

But there’s not a way to prove that the difference between his TOI totals and other best team’s top defenceman’s TOI totals is meritocratic and precise.

The fact that adjusting his counts/gp to rates/toi closes the gap so immensely points to the opposite.

He’s not just the best defenseman on his team though – he’s the best player, and it isn’t even close. AND, he’s also the best defenseman in all of CHL – including 19- and 20-year-olds. That’s not insignificant, and not simply a product of TOI. I’m sure every team has at least one defensemen that plays 25+ minutes, none of them achieved the results Bouchard did – even those on stacked teams and even those who are up to 2 years older than he is.

It’s a pretty incredible achievement, even though he’s a 1999 birthday and playing cherry minutes. (Don’t tell me Dobson and Smith aren’t getting cherry minutes also, either. They are.)

Professor Q

housty17:
You know I keep posting this rant but if we are looking for a cheap right winger that seems to playMcDavid game we can easily dip into our cupboard past.

Iw in order for this to happen we need a coaching change and a GM change.

I firmly believe that Nail Yakupov would be a better option at right side to Mcdavid than any option on our roster. And he will be cheap. He knows the players is beloved by fans.

I agree. Edmonton should have held on to him in the first place and remained consistent with him on McDavid’s wing.

No consistency with young players here it seems. Hopefully it doesn’t mess them up too badly.

housty17

You know I keep posting this rant but if we are looking for a cheap right winger that seems to play McDavid game we can easily dip into our cupboard past.

Iw in order for this to happen we need a coaching change and a GM change.

I firmly believe that Nail Yakupov would be a better option at right side to Mcdavid than any option on our roster. And he will be cheap. He knows the players is beloved by fans.

Yes he has some gaffes who does not, but take away all the stigma and you watch how he played with mcdavid on youtube it looks clear as compared to watching how mcdavid has interacted play-making with other teammates that yakupov had some chemistry there.

He is a good kid who had poor coaching and feel he is still unlockable, he may not have the high ceiling but would he post 15-22 goals on mcdavid flank… i believe so..

he would be cheap. and why not, why the fcuk not…. be better than anything we have.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ips9wptq7O0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXaVbxKT-Rg

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/mclellans-gamble-on-mcdavid-yakupov-paying-off-for-oilers/

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/oilers-mcdavid-pouliot-yakupov-trio-turning-into-one-of-nhls-best-lines

Professor Q

Woodguy v2.0: Add to that the fact that he was 2 weeks too young to be in the 2017 and he reportedly has slower boots and I think he might be one of those guys who might kill junior but have troubles in the NHL.

Probably will be a NHLer, but not like others in the range.

2008 is an interesting draft in terms of Dmen and might have some parallels to this year

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html

Note: I’m not a draft expert by any means

I don’t get why he’s getting the “slow boots” narrative.

From my viewings he seems like an Ovechkin-McDavid type skater.

I probably get eye-rolls when I always say this but he is a rover, controls the ice, but also takes McDavid/Hall/Orr rushes up the ice, solo or 2-on-1.

Not slow at all and seems to be in quite a bit of control of his blades and legs. Plus, he’s a RHD who has a decent shot, and plays LD just as much as he does RD. Versatile.

dustrock

Woodguy v2.0: Add to that the fact that he was 2 weeks too young to be in the 2017 and he reportedly has slower boots and I think he might be one of those guys who might kill junior but have troubles in the NHL.

Probably will be a NHLer, but not like others in the range.

2008 is an interesting draft in terms of Dmen and might have some parallels to this year

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html

Note: I’m not a draft expert by any means

My worry is that Bouchard is Cody Franson. Maybe a slightly better Cody Franson.

Boqvist could almost be in the 2019 draft, Bouchard could almost be in the 2017 draft.

Hughes and Smith and Dobson are better skaters.

I have no doubt Bouchard can pass and shoot, but is he mobile enough?

There’s not a huge separation for the d-men and I’d honestly be happy with any of them, but I probably have it:

Boqvist
Smith/Hughes
Dobson
Bouchard
Wilde

But I am far from an expert myself.

pts2pndr

flyfish1168,

I totally agree! JJ is wated as a 4th line center. He is definetly a top 9 forward in my opinion.

Woogie63

2017/18 season

Remember when Hendrick was not a useful NHLer last year.

Hendricks 60 games, 13 points, 39 PIM

Kassian 65 games, 17 points, 90 PIM
Caggiula 57 games, 15 points, 22 PIM
Slepyshev 41 games, 10 points, 6 PIM
Pakarianen, 35 games, 3 points, 4 PIM

bendelson

ArmchairGM: I have Farabee as the highest of the second-tier forwards, but I don’t think I would pick him in the top-10. If I was drafting I would have him 11th.

So you have Dobson, Smith, Bouchard and… Merkley ahead of Farabee then?

Alpine

bendelson: I also was focused on the forwards for the 2018 draft.Big Walhstrom fan.That said, Wahlstrom is no longer an option (with the Oilers likely drafting 9,10,or 11).So which forwards remain an option?

I have Farabee as an interesting option – dynamic player.
I’m also a big fan of Kotkaniemi, though his skating appears to be in question.

Alas, the Oilers likely take a D in the 1st

I like Wahlstrom a lot too, I still think the Oilers have a chance at him because there’s a decent chance they end up at 8 OV, and maybe 7th if no one skips ahead of them. I haven’t looked at the odds of them dropping a couple spots but last year seemed like a really unlikely result.

Another I like is Isac Lundestrom but I have some doubts about his offense and he’s a late 99 birthday too.

Wilde

ArmchairGM,

Uh, that’s the NHL.

Obviously it’s indicative of NHL success if you eat minutes in the NHL and are successful because, well.

Whereas the translation factor of eating minutes as a late-birthday draft eligible on a major junior franchise with a history of late-birthday draft eligibles being fed minutes to doing so in the NHL is not 1.0.

He’s the best defenceman on his team, yes.

But there’s not a way to prove that the difference between his TOI totals and other best team’s top defenceman’s TOI totals is meritocratic and precise.

The fact that adjusting his counts/gp to rates/toi closes the gap so immensely points to the opposite.

Professor Q

flyfish1168: 4th line center can be had at any given time. dime a dozen. We should be exploring the top end for JJ

And what a story it would be. Love Khaira and how far he’s come, and how far he might go.

ArmchairGM

bendelson: I also was focused on the forwards for the 2018 draft.Big Walhstrom fan.That said, Wahlstrom is no longer an option (with the Oilers likely drafting 9,10,or 11).So which forwards remain an option?

I have Farabee as an interesting option – dynamic player.
I’m also a big fan of Kotkaniemi, though his skating appears to be in question.

Alas, the Oilers likely take a D in the 1st.

I have Farabee as the highest of the second-tier forwards, but I don’t think I would pick him in the top-10. If I was drafting I would have him 11th.

flyfish1168

pts2pndr: Khaira could be an excellent lw for Connor he has a better shot than Maroon a faster skater and I think will learn the close in finish of Maroon. Problem is coach has him locked in as fourth line center !

4th line center can be had at any given time. dime a dozen. We should be exploring the top end for JJ

ArmchairGM

sliderule:
Noah fDobson doesn’t get mentioned much but 17 goals and point a game looks good fora 2000 born.

In on ice testing at top prospect he was the fastest both forward and backward..Ty smith also tested wellbut he is 5-11 vs 6-3 for Dobson.

Hughes and Bouchard are both of 1999 born and there is a big difference between them and a 2000born.

Boqvist. Was born in Augist 2000so he is 10 months younger.Not much chance he will be around when oil pick .

Dobson is an interesting player and will likely be picked in the 6-10 range like Bouchard. I would happy with either, I just posted about Bouchard because his numbers are unbelievable for a guy being touted as likely being available at #7.

Boqvist would be a dream come true.

Glad for the discussion.

flyfish1168

HenryDrix:
Does anyone else think that Khaira could be the next Maroon?Possibly?I would like to see him with McDavid a few games and see.Anyone else?He seems to have the speed and he is willing to stick up for his teammates.Reward the guy with a shot.

Also, very Tired of the non response for all the hits on 97.

There are people on this site that does not like this idea. I have brought it up twice and the same 2 or 3 people here are against it.

I like the idea. It good to have a big body play with Connor and Ryan to keep the other teams honest. You can’t defend our skill players if you are not on the ice at the same time occasionally. It give our top line a different look and the other team off balance. JJ appears to be a good study and a team 1st player so why not reward him with time on the top line. I think this will up JJ game.

Professor Q

Alpine:
With regards to London, they have churned out their fair share of legit players to cancel out some the duds. They usually average an NHLer or two per year these days and some of them are really good .

2006: Steve Mason
2007: Kane, (Gagner’s a half mark here)
2008: no one
2009: Kadri (Oshawa responsible for Tavares)
2010: no one
2011: Namestnikov
2012: Maatta, also Athanasiou, J. Anderson, Tierney have nearly established themselves
2013: Horvat’s legit, Domi still has upside, Zadorov has turned a corner
2014: Dvorak’s similar to the Athanasiou/Anderson class
2015: Marner’s nearly a great player
2016: Tkachuk *spits* is good, potentially can add Juolevi and Jones to this
2017: Thomas developing similar to Horvat

I think there’s something to be said for London’s development of forwards. Lot of good names. Not many defensemen but usually the first rounders have mostly turned out. I’m not necessarily a big Bouchard booster (I haven’t focused on the 2018 D that much as I want a forward) but I think the London effect is only worrisome because of what happened 10 years ago. It’s not something that bothers me now, and Bouchard has a 40(!) point gap on the 2nd best Knight post Thomas and Pu trades. He’s not riding anyone’s coattails there.

Indeed. I’m glad some others are recognizing now (at least some other posters here are interested in London and Bouchard recently). From what I see from Bouchard, things are very good. But my broken record preceeds me. I do recognize that he’s older.

I think one year shouldn’t be a terribly frightening statistic in a decade+ of good years. The system is strong from their junior teams up. Although even as a fan I admit that London can sometimes be a bully and get their way in order to get the best prospects through draft trades, like they did with Domi for example, and they got Tavares in a similar manner (though well after he was established).

As an aside: Jack Roslovic was drafted by London after Winnpeg drafted him, but unfortunately the kid was too good and went straight to Manitoba instead…

Wilde

I’m not sure how much competition our 8-9-10 spot will have in regard to D selected.

The lottery is going to fuck any predictions like that up.

Every time I run a simulator, at least one team from 9-15 hits top 3.

This is what the Oilers have created, and they’re about to benefit from it again.

If we win the lottery, are we the supervillains of the NHL?

bendelson

Alpine: I haven’t focused on the 2018 D that much as I want a forward

I also was focused on the forwards for the 2018 draft. Big Walhstrom fan. That said, Wahlstrom is no longer an option (with the Oilers likely drafting 9,10,or 11). So which forwards remain an option?

I have Farabee as an interesting option – dynamic player.
I’m also a big fan of Kotkaniemi, though his skating appears to be in question.

Alas, the Oilers likely take a D in the 1st.

leadfarmer

Max Jones 18 g and 3 a is one of the stranger stat lines I have seen

ArmchairGM

Wilde:
ArmchairGM,

Getting a push isn’t having a good team, it’s getting a TOI push.

Bouchard appears to have by far the most eTOI of any draft-eligible defenseman in the OHL, and from my viewings, looks like he’s out there for all of every powerplay.

And

Of Bouchard’s 1.3 PPG, 0.67 is 5v5.

Rasmus Sandin, as a comparison, has 0.55.

Not such an ocean there.

That’s the meaning behind being wary of a London Knight.

Matt Tkachuk had me fooled, though.

So is Erik Karlsson “getting a push”? Or does he play 30 minutes each game because he’s far-and-away the best player on the Sens roster? That’s my point about Bouchard.

sliderule

Noah fDobson doesn’t get mentioned much but 17 goals and point a game looks good for a 2000 born.

In on ice testing at top prospect he was the fastest both forward and backward..Ty smith also tested well but he is 5-11 vs 6-3 for Dobson.

Hughes and Bouchard are both of 1999 born and there is a big difference between them and a 2000 born.

Boqvist. Was born in Augist 2000 so he is 10 months younger.Not much chance he will be around when oil pick .

Alpine

With regards to London, they have churned out their fair share of legit players to cancel out some the duds. They usually average an NHLer or two per year these days and some of them are really good .

2006: Steve Mason
2007: Kane, (Gagner’s a half mark here)
2008: no one
2009: Kadri (Oshawa responsible for Tavares)
2010: no one
2011: Namestnikov
2012: Maatta, also Athanasiou, J. Anderson, Tierney have nearly established themselves
2013: Horvat’s legit, Domi still has upside, Zadorov has turned a corner
2014: Dvorak’s similar to the Athanasiou/Anderson class
2015: Marner’s nearly a great player
2016: Tkachuk *spits* is good, potentially can add Juolevi and Jones to this
2017: Thomas developing similar to Horvat

I think there’s something to be said for London’s development of forwards. Lot of good names. Not many defensemen but usually the first rounders have mostly turned out. I’m not necessarily a big Bouchard booster (I haven’t focused on the 2018 D that much as I want a forward) but I think the London effect is only worrisome because of what happened 10 years ago. It’s not something that bothers me now, and Bouchard has a 40(!) point gap on the 2nd best Knight post Thomas and Pu trades. He’s not riding anyone’s coattails there.