Caroline, No

by Lowetide

Last night the Oilers gave us (and themselves) a sense of what could be in the future. Connor McDavid had a ‘hard nose the highway’ evening against a tough matchup, but the Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Strome lines were highly successful against the soft parade. It was a rare ‘laugher’ for Edmonton, a nice reward late in a bitterly disappointing season. Fans can hope management and coaching staff learned the lessons of having plenty of firepower on as many lines as possible.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

WRAP IT UP, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 6-4-0, goal differential 0 (12 points)
  • March 2017: 7-2-1, goal differential +16 (15 points)
  • March 2018: 5-4-1, goal differential +2 (11 points)

Oilers winning last night means they are in the range with two years ago. They won’t catch last year’s team, who put the boots to the NHL for the rest of the regular season. The club is winning some games (5-4-1 in the last 10) and seem to have repeatable good outings for maybe the first time all season.

AFTER 73, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 28-38-7, goal differential -47 (63 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 39-25-9, goal differential +30 (87 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 32-36-5, goal differential -30 (69 points)

Edmonton is now within one point of the 2015-16 team final number (70) and could move beyond on Thursday night. The schedule gets weird now, strong teams will be resting injured players and weak times will have addled games. Of course, the Oilers are in that spot as well.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-2-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 5-4-1, 11 points in 10 games

Edmonton moved ahead of Chicago in the overall standings last night, now rank No. 24 and would draft No. 8 overall before the lottery. One final game on the road (just a devastating story on the Karlssons) and then back home for a tough trio. The final two road games of the month should be winnable. So, three more wins this month?

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Auvitu-Benning were golden, 17-9 in 12:22, 2-1 GF. The goal against was a fluke, tipped in by Auvitu despite major efforts to blame Benning on the broadcast. Both defenders scored goals and both goals were very skilled. I’m a fan of both players. Pair went 11-3 against McGinn-Lindholm-Williams, just a rocking chair duo on the evening.
  • Nurse-Larsson went 9-10 in 19:49, 1-0 GF. Although neither man is a dynamic offensive player, their quick picks and good positioning held them in good stead on the night. Went 2-9 in seven minutes against Aho-Staal-Teravainen, that line was a fierce opponent and kept everyone on their collective toes.
  • Russell-Bear went 8-9 in 11:04, 2-0 GF. Were 4-5 against Skinner-Ryan-Stempniak, who seemed to be under Russell’s skin for much of the night. Bear got hurt for a time, not certain if he’ll be out for any length of time. I’m writing an item on his first 10 games for The Athletic, should be up later today. Russell had a good game.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 29 of 32, .906. He made some great stops early.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Caggiula-Draisaitl-Aberg went 14-6 (Caggiula) and 13-6 (Aberg) with Jesse Puljujarvi along for the ride on one goal (line was 4-0 GF). Line was 5-0 in HDSC, absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. Were 5-2 against the Derek Ryan line, and 9-5 against the Dahlbeck-Faulk pairing.
  • Lucic-Strome-Puljujarvi were 14-11, 2-0 in GF and 6-2 HDSC. One of the keys to this line was just one giveaway, and they had tons of chances (Strome had 5 HDC’s alone). Puljujarvi was impressive on the night, great big 18-wheeler rocking through the night. He’s a convoy all by his lonesome.
  • Slepyshev-Khaira-Pakarinen were 6-4 in the low event trio on the evening. The line was quiet offensively but Khaira had a great chance and I thought Slepyshev was skating very well in a checking role. That’s going to keep him here should he choose to pursue the role.
  • Nuge-McDavid-Rattie got the heat treatment and there wasn’t much clean air for the trio. Went 7-16, 1-1 GF. Were 1-11 against Aho-Staal-Teravainen, 97 was 4-14 against Brett Pesce. That’s an insane line against Connor McDavid.

This is a fascinating look at an issue we’ve discussed many times over the years. James Gordon takes a rational look at teams and their drafting success, the results are very interesting. I won’t ruin it for you but the Oilers perform well (mostly because of first-round performance that includes Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse).

GOD’S FLASHLIGHT (FORWARDS 5X5/60 SCORING)

  1. Connor McDavid 3.00
  2. Leon Draisaitl 2.55
  3. Pontus Aberg 2.44
  4. Ty Rattie 1.88
  5. Mike Cammalleri 1.88
  6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.81
  7. Patrick Maroon 1.80 (traded)
  8. Ryan Strome 1.60
  9. Jujhar Khaira 1.52
  10. Jesse Puljujarvi 1.47
  11. Milan Lucic 1.46
  12. Zack Kassian 1.26
  13. Anton Slepyshev 1.25
  14. Drake Caggiula 1.18
  15. Mark Letestu 1.17
  16. Iiro Pakarinen 0.59
  17. Natural Stat Trick

My line in the sand is 2.00/60 for No. 1 line, 1.80+/60 for No. 2 line and then anything above 1.50/60 is good if you are getting bottom six minutes. So, Strome’s number can be defended because he hasn’t been playing a ton with the top group. Lucic? That’s different, he has been spending much of his time with the best players on the team. Jesse Puljujarvi is the one player you want to push toward 2.00/60. Perhaps he’ll get there next season.

JESSE

I write about Jesse Puljujarvi more than anyone associated with the team currently. Why? His success is so damned important to the organization. When Peter Chiarelli traded Taylor Hall, he did so secure in the knowledge that the club had acquired another (potential) difference maker. We’re about two full seasons past that draft and JP isn’t pushing the river and doesn’t have gaudy boxcars.

What we needed to see, and saw, was real progress year over year. Puljujarvi has the raw skills to be a prototype power forward and can already crash through the gates doing 98. He is a rare player and in the Oilers roster he is a unique one.

I think the Oilers would be wise to marry the big Finn to Leon Draisaitl next season. Both of them have mad skills while also being able to win battles. Add in a nifty marksman with agitating skills and you’re talking a real load for any opponent. If Jesse Puljujarvi scores 20 goals next season, I think the Oilers will have themselves a big piece of the puzzle for the next decade.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, it’s going to be a fun show because my friend Bruce McCurdy gets to talk about a victory! TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Leon goes wild in Raleigh, offside rule, the summer to come.
  • Keegan Matheson, Baseball Toronto. The Jays lineup is coming into view.
  • Simon Boisvert, Prospect Insider. We’ll chat Ethan Bear, Oilers graduating prospects and the 2018 draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

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Spooky Lynx

Connor is the first Oiler to score 35 goals in a season since Ryan Smyth in 05/06 (via SportsNet)

It’s mind bending.

Woodguy v2.0

Bobcaygeon: I’m getting a Schultz feeling with Faulk….may be a new team is what this kid needs.

I’m new at this analytic stuff but getting better (thanks to posters such as yourself) but does this take into consideration who’s on the ice (forwards) obviously D partners and goalie? Does this just track goals and shots?
I’m curious as to how Schultz on the Oilers would be in comparison to Faulk? Schultz was saddled with N.Schultz and a old broken Ference, by the time Schultz left Edmonton he was a shell of a player.
If the Oilers could by low on Faulk would he not serve as a good 3rd pairing RHD with the ability to eventually move up into the 2nd pairing..

I doubt you can buy Faulk for cheap though.

The metrics I showed were how the average team mate’s GF or CF changes when they play with Faulk/Barrie compared to when they are without him.

Woodguy v2.0

Jethro Tull,

Using these RelTeam mates metrics, yes Benning would look worse because when a forward isn’t with Benning he might be with PK, Ellis, Josi or Ekholm.

You gotta dig deep.

Woodguy v2.0

GMB3: I believe he is specifically referencing the teamRels. I may be mistaken though

Yes, RelTeam mate which is the summation of WOWY.

Standard “Rel” is player On/Off.

With Dmen though, you *have* to look at pairs when analyzing how they effect the forwards.

You can look individually at how the effect their partners

GMB3

Jethro Tull: Isn’t this a paradox?If you can’t look good because your peers look good, but you are good, then how can they look good, so if they don’t look good and you look good, who is actually good?

I need a drink of water…..

I think it comes down to the old “he’s being zoomed” but let’s trade him “because his values never been higher”.

But seeing as the whole NHL works on the Peter Principle (you are promoted/paid just past the ceiling of competence), i won’t hold my breath.

Would Benning truly look worse playing for Nash, as he would be sheltered by good players?

Of course, a certain Jultz has flourished in Pitts.

I believe he is specifically referencing the teamRels. I may be mistaken though

Jethro Tull

Woodguy v2.0: If you play D on NAS, you’re in tough to look good relative to your peers as your peers kick ass.

Isn’t this a paradox? If you can’t look good because your peers look good, but you are good, then how can they look good, so if they don’t look good and you look good, who is actually good?

I need a drink of water…..

I think it comes down to the old “he’s being zoomed” but let’s trade him “because his values never been higher”.

But seeing as the whole NHL works on the Peter Principle (you are promoted/paid just past the ceiling of competence), i won’t hold my breath.

Would Benning truly look worse playing for Nash, as he would be sheltered by good players?

Of course, a certain Jultz has flourished in Pitts.

Woodguy v2.0

Something else we need to take into account when using “RelT”

How good is the rest of the team?

If a player is on a strong team, its harder to get good “RelT”

If you play D on NAS, you’re in tough to look good relative to your peers as your peers kick ass.

In this way we need to look deeper at both these players as “Overall Quality of Team” will give Barrie more of a boost than Faulk.

Woodguy v2.0

jtblack:
Woodguy v2.0,

I would say Faulk looks OK in this metric. CAR doesnt have a prolific scorers. CF% is a positive.

He’s not a bad player. I think he has trouble defending the net though.

This was supposed to be a series of posts but I got busy at home.

Here’s Barrie and Faulk’s most common Dpartners last 2 years:

Barrie
16/17
With TOI With
Fedor Tyutin 511.9
Francois Beauchemin 276.5
Patrick Wiercioch 196.9
Nikita Zadorov 129.2
Mark Barberio 126.8
Erik Johnson 61.5
Eric Gelinas 36.3
Anton Lindholm 24.6

17/18
With TOI With
Nikita Zadorov 255.2
Patrik Nemeth 222.0
Samuel Girard 133.4
Anton Lindholm 126.7
Erik Johnson 114.2
Mark Barberio 45.8
Chris Bigras 38.0
Duncan Siemens 24.1
David Warsofsky 24.1
Andrei Mironov 20.0

Justin Faulk
16/17
With TOI With
Ron Hainsey 685.8
Jaccob Slavin 328.2
Noah Hanifin 290.2
Brett Pesce 39.0
Klas Dahlbeck 22.9

17/18
With TOI With
Haydn Fleury 465.3
Jaccob Slavin 286.5
Noah Hanifin 254.0
Klas Dahlbeck 196.3
Trevor van Riemsdyk 31.9
Brett Pesce 31.3

So if you now look at their results, Barrie’s look much stronger because he’s basically played with has -beens, never-was, rookies and tweeners over the last 2 years and not with Actual NHL Dmen for a partner for any significant time while playing 1st/2nd pair.

Zadorov is coming around, but I’m not sure I count him as an “Actual Top 4 NHL Dman”

Faulk in 16/17 played mostly with Hainsey (who played 1st pair with Dumoulin on PIT’s run to the Cup after the deadline) and Pesce then breaking in rookie Hanifin a bit. Not a bad 3 partners.

This year he’s been holding rookie Fleury’s hand a lot and we need to take that into account, but Pesce and not-rookie Hanifin are pretty good.

jtblack

Woodguy v2.0,

I would say Faulk looks OK in this metric. CAR doesnt have a prolific scorers. CF% is a positive.

SwedishPoster

jp: Thanks for the updates! I guess this is a typo though??

No typo, the OT went on until the 6th period. So he played 38:52.

GMB3

Wilde,

No limits ferry pass? From VI? How did you get one of those

Biggus Dickus

Numenius: Marody probably said he wouldn’t sign with the Flyers, so Hextall was in danger of losing him for nothing (see: Justin Schultz).

Now we just need to hope there’s a deal in place to sign with us, which I can’t imagine wouldn’t be the case.

If Maroon was worth a B-list prospect with signing issues, then that is a serious indictment of our GM. Haven’t seen many Maroon mentions on here, but he’s 9gp-2-6-8 and it looks like it’s mostly middle six minutes.

Bobcaygeon

Woodguy v2.0: new

I’m getting a Schultz feeling with Faulk….may be a new team is what this kid needs.

I’m new at this analytic stuff but getting better (thanks to posters such as yourself) but does this take into consideration who’s on the ice (forwards) obviously D partners and goalie? Does this just track goals and shots?
I’m curious as to how Schultz on the Oilers would be in comparison to Faulk? Schultz was saddled with N.Schultz and a old broken Ference, by the time Schultz left Edmonton he was a shell of a player.
If the Oilers could by low on Faulk would he not serve as a good 3rd pairing RHD with the ability to eventually move up into the 2nd pairing..

flyfish1168

Yahoo phlegms lose by a shutout again

Gayfish

Scungilli Slushy: I am in complete agreement. Connor needs a winger who does his dirty work and can score, not a player floating around waiting for a set up.

If a set up man is his winger, he better be getting 50-60 goals a year, a complete killer. There aren’t many that are affordable or available with Connor’s 12.5.

The best player in the world shouldn’t be carrying dead weight. On a good team.

I’m less worried about speculating about a perfect fit for connor, as best lines change depending on the game. There are enough holes on our wings that we should just be getting bonifide players. Fill up the depth chart, and that will give McDavid a ton of breathing room. Winning matchups is more important than finding chem for the 1line imo.

People also seem to forget that Eberle-CMD was once a good pair, as was Nail-CMD. Lucic and Maroon were both “hard area” guys, and I think there is a strong argument that both were styming offense. McDavid typically scores off the rush, and I think it is more important to have guys who can contribute there.

jp

Wilde:
Primetime,

Either his height or his weight are wrong LOL

I don’t think people know what 200 lean on 5’9″ looks like

How do you know it’s lean?

jp

SwedishPoster:
The quarterfinals of the SHL playoffs are up and running and our boys are doing well.

In game two he played 38:52, most on his team, in an ot loss, he was even, no points.

Thanks for the updates! I guess this is a typo though??

Harpers Hair

SwedishPoster:
On Jesse he once again had a strong game when he played a more of a playmaking game, holding on to the puck looking for plays instead of firing as soon as he sees an opening.

Åberg with his best game in his short oilers career, he sure needed that one. Since he’s not overly clever on the ice he likely needs to consistently go to the front of the net to be efficent and be decisive with the puck on his stick. Still don’t think him and Caggiula is a great combo due to a lack of cerebral funktion on the ice but if anyone can make it work it’s Leon,compensating with his big playmaker brain.

I think RNH, McDavid needs a better board and/or cycle player than Rattie as the third man to work long term and against tighter checking.

The Hurricanes played some really terrible defense yesterday, it was a breeze getting through the middle of the ice, their D didn’t exactly blow you away. Faulk was dreadful as has been mentioned, I also think Fleury was really unimpressive and I’ve never been a fan of Dahlbeck, truly limited player.

Regarding Faulk the Canes crew’s comments were pretty funny on last nights feed, it went something like this; “He added a lot of, uh, muscle last summer and isn’t moving as well, I think he’d be quicker and more agile if he lost 15 pounds.”

Cooper Marody showed well when I did my draft work on the 2015 draft three years ago. He also has an awesome name. His college numbers has been strong since, when you read scouting reports from the last few years he checks a lot of crucial boxes for an offensive player, he’s shown character in overcoming setbacks more than once. So why do the Flyers let him go, and why are most scouting reports slightly reserved despite good numbers and an intriguing set of skills, why did he last to the 6th round? What’s the big flaw? Or is he one of those guys who produces well everywhere but just won’t look good doing it so everyone is sleeping on him? Let’s hope for the latter.

Ryan Potulny.

YKOil

Scungilli Slushy: … I have been on board with a lot of PCs signings of outlier players. They have good thinking behind them, players with good reasons for struggling and usually smart and skilled types. I also like that they are recognizing players that are good skaters or better. I think it matters.

If they could only stop screwing up big trades.

PC’s issue, imo, has always been that of “what I want, I want” and that kind of attitude, when it shows as a problem, shows up when someone is actively shopping for something they think they need – not when they are just browsing the shelves.

Scungilli Slushy

SwedishPoster: On Jesse he once again had a strong game when he played a more of a playmaking game, holding on to the puck looking for plays instead of firing as soon as he sees an opening.

I keep thinking he should be a centre for these reasons. Playmaking, skating, defensive play and seeing the ice so well. And big. Wingers should be the aggressive scoring types. Like Laine.

Scungilli Slushy

SwedishPoster:
On Jesse he once again had a strong game when he played a more of a playmaking game, holding on to the puck looking for plays instead of firing as soon as he sees an opening.

Åberg with his best game in his short oilers career, he sure needed that one. Since he’s not overly clever on the ice he likely needs to consistently go to the front of the net to be efficent and be decisive with the puck on his stick. Still don’t think him and Caggiula is a great combo due to a lack of cerebral funktion on the ice but if anyone can make it work it’s Leon,compensating with his big playmaker brain.

I think RNH, McDavid needs a better board and/or cycle player than Rattie as the third man to work long term and against tighter checking.

The Hurricanes played some really terrible defense yesterday, it was a breeze getting through the middle of the ice, their D didn’t exactly blow you away. Faulk was dreadful as has been mentioned, I also think Fleury was really unimpressive and I’ve never been a fan of Dahlbeck, truly limited player.

Regarding Faulk the Canes crew’s comments were pretty funny on last nights feed, it went something like this; “He added a lot of, uh, muscle last summer and isn’t moving as well, I think he’d be quicker and more agile if he lost 15 pounds.”

Cooper Marody showed well when I did my draft work on the 2015 draft three years ago. He also has an awesome name. His college numbers has been strong since, when you read scouting reports from the last few years he checks a lot of crucial boxes for an offensive player, he’s shown character in overcoming setbacks more than once. So why do the Flyers let him go, and why are most scouting reports slightly reserved despite good numbers and an intriguing set of skills, why did he last to the 6th round? What’s the big flaw? Or is he one of those guys who produces well everywhere but just won’t look good doing it so everyone is sleeping on him? Let’s hope for the latter.

I am in complete agreement. Connor needs a winger who does his dirty work and can score, not a player floating around waiting for a set up.

If a set up man is his winger, he better be getting 50-60 goals a year, a complete killer. There aren’t many that are affordable or available with Connor’s 12.5.

The best player in the world shouldn’t be carrying dead weight. On a good team.

pts2pndr

JimmyV1965,

That is true but he was not successful as a winger. He is on record as saying he is more compfortable playing center. No matter how long you try to fit a square peg in a round hole it will not fit! His success in junior was as a center. His success in NHL is as a center. It would seem prudent to even a casual fan to play him at center first and then try him at wing. Some players adapt others do not. A good coach should be able to determine where the player is most competent!

SwedishPoster: Yeah, swedish tv had the Canes crew and I agree, very nice feed, they were very well prepared and knew a lot about the players on both. For example I learned the Nurse does ju jutsu during off season, didn’t know that. One of the best crews I’ve heard the last few seasons.

I agree! Had a choice of broadcasts and chose the canes crew!

SwedishPoster

The quarterfinals of the SHL playoffs are up and running and our boys are doing well.

Lagesson and his Djurgården teammates are tied 1-1 after two games. Lagesson played a little over 16 minutes, had no points and was +1 in the first game in which his team won 6-1. In game two he played 38:52, most on his team, in an ot loss, he was even, no points.

Berglund has played even better. In game one he played 19:19 mins, third most on his team, had 2 SOG but no points though in the NHL he’d probably gotten a 2nd assist after some boardwork on one of the goals, he was +3 when his team won 3-1. Game two he played 20:02, most on his team, had an assist and was +2 in a 5-0 win. He lost his D partner to injury just before the playoffs which has forced him to take on a bigger role on his pairing and on the team and he’s ran with it. He’s been his teams best D over the first two games.

SwedishPoster

On Jesse he once again had a strong game when he played a more of a playmaking game, holding on to the puck looking for plays instead of firing as soon as he sees an opening.

Åberg with his best game in his short oilers career, he sure needed that one. Since he’s not overly clever on the ice he likely needs to consistently go to the front of the net to be efficent and be decisive with the puck on his stick. Still don’t think him and Caggiula is a great combo due to a lack of cerebral funktion on the ice but if anyone can make it work it’s Leon, compensating with his big playmaker brain.

I think RNH, McDavid needs a better board and/or cycle player than Rattie as the third man to work long term and against tighter checking.

The Hurricanes played some really terrible defense yesterday, it was a breeze getting through the middle of the ice, their D didn’t exactly blow you away. Faulk was dreadful as has been mentioned, I also think Fleury was really unimpressive and I’ve never been a fan of Dahlbeck, truly limited player.

Regarding Faulk the Canes crew’s comments were pretty funny on last nights feed, it went something like this; “He added a lot of, uh, muscle last summer and isn’t moving as well, I think he’d be quicker and more agile if he lost 15 pounds.”

Cooper Marody showed well when I did my draft work on the 2015 draft three years ago. He also has an awesome name. His college numbers has been strong since, when you read scouting reports from the last few years he checks a lot of crucial boxes for an offensive player, he’s shown character in overcoming setbacks more than once. So why do the Flyers let him go, and why are most scouting reports slightly reserved despite good numbers and an intriguing set of skills, why did he last to the 6th round? What’s the big flaw? Or is he one of those guys who produces well everywhere but just won’t look good doing it so everyone is sleeping on him? Let’s hope for the latter.

Doug McLachlan

Like the bet Chia is making with this trade.

Was really interested in Boqvist about a month ago and was comfortable with Bouchard as a consolation RHD prize. With the Oilers’ season ending run it is likely a moot discussion. The Oilers pulled ahead of Chicago and likely will reel in the Rangers, Islanders and maybe even the Hurricanes (if last night’s performance was any indication of Carolina’s commitment to playing out the string) so outside of a favorable ping pong ball bounce (or a trade) will be picking after Boqvist or even Bouchard is off the board.

SwedishPoster

Dicky94:
Hockey Project,

I watched the Hurricane feed and really enjoyed the two guys doing the game. Their knowledge of the Oilers players was quite impressive. Would definitely watch their feed again.

Yeah, swedish tv had the Canes crew and I agree, very nice feed, they were very well prepared and knew a lot about the players on both. For example I learned the Nurse does ju jutsu during off season, didn’t know that. One of the best crews I’ve heard the last few seasons.

Scungilli Slushy

Lowetide: Thanks! I think it would be wise to avoid the big trade freeway this summer.

Yes, there aren’t many potential wins out there.

HenryDrix

knighttown:
And speaking of Strome…I’m going to say it…I really like the player.I really like cerebral hockey players and boy is his brain quick.He actually reminds me of a Nuge/Eberle hybrid.He’s smart as a whip and moves the puck quickly and accurately and is pretty dogged on the puck like RNH.I get the sense this is a new attribute for him.Like Eberle, he isn’t blazing fast but moves well laterally with the puck especially and seems to be able to create scoring chances when he’s given the puck with speed.His hands seem to disappear in the scoring area (not a finisher?) but I’d bet on the skill set overcoming that voodoo.

I think his success is in good part because he faces the dregs quite often so hopefully he knows that and signs pretty cheap.I’m thinking 4 x 3ish.

Agree, Strome reminds me of Nuge, A poor mans Nuge.

Scungilli Slushy

Lowetide:
For The Athletic: What are the Oilers getting in Cooper Marody

https://theathletic.com/282931/2018/03/21/lowetide-what-are-the-oilers-getting-in-cooper-marody/

Enjoying your work at Athletic. I have been on board with a lot of PCs signings of outlier players. They have good thinking behind them, players with good reasons for struggling and usually smart and skilled types. I also like that they are recognizing players that are good skaters or better. I think it matters.

If they could only stop screwing up big trades.

Woodguy v2.0

knighttown,

Re: Faulk vs Barrie.

Corsica.hockey has a stat called “RelT”. That stands for “Relative Team mate”

Its different from the normal “Rels” that we are used to.

“RelT” is basically the summation of WOWY. It answers the questions “Do his team mates do better with him or without him”

That question is fraught with lots of situational and deployment questions (if a player plays tough minutes a lot then often team mates to worse and vice versa), but its a good overall metric.

The normal “Rels” are “On/Off” measures. This is how the team does with “X” on the ice, this is how they do with “X” off the ice.

All this being said, let’s look at Barrie’s and Faulks’s “RelT” measures over the last two years as they are more indicative of future play than going back further.

The last two years are also important for Faulk as Slavin-Pesce have been the 1st pair for CAR over this time and Faulk’s results are in 2nd pair minutes.

Faulk has had some bad partners and some good ones.

Barrie has had some bad partners and some not as bad partners.

Barrie has played a lot of 1st pair minutes as Johnson has played only 46 games last year and 56 this year.

All metrics are from the start of the 16/17 season until now.

RelTeam GF%
16/17
Faulk -5.57
Barrie +1.70

17/18
Faulk -0.94
Barrie +0.88

RelTeam CF%
16/17
Faulk +1.52
Barrie +0.86

17/18
Faulk +1.53
Barrie -0.11

Those are the two most important metrics imo.

Shots and goals. Shots predict the future better, but goals mean something in season wide samples that shots can’t quite capture in terms of offensive and defensive ability, but lordy goals are subject to wild swings.

These two metrics are what have swung me towards Barrie if the question is “Faulk or Barrie”

He’s played a ton of 1st pair and CAR hammers Slavin-Pesce with the hard minutes.

I think Barrie makes his team better in a few respects.

Lots of people like to break these down into offensive and defensive results but I think looking at the overall is more instructive.

Not every player add more offence or defence as the next player.

It is, and always has been, what you create minus what you give up.

If a player gives up a lot, they better create a lot and that gets lost on 200 Hockey Men every day of the week until its so glaring the go from baiting Hall in 2017 to pining for him in 2018.

JimmyV1965

pts2pndr: Ok Andy suppose I agree with you,then why did it take the coach over half the season to figure it out? Did he have to earn his third line center position by failing as a right winger? An experienced coaching staff would and or should have picked up on this much, much quicker. The way this season has played out, you can not in good conscience say both GM and coach have done a good job as they are mutualy exclusive!

To be fair, when the Oilers picked him up he was considered a winger. That’s where he spent most of his time in New York.

leadfarmer

Numenius,

Then we have to resign Talbot/other starter and JP the following year

Numenius

Munny: I have trouble hating this trade. However Hexie hates our guts and the kid has nice arrows this season… wonder what prompted him to make this move?

Marody probably said he wouldn’t sign with the Flyers, so Hextall was in danger of losing him for nothing (see: Justin Schultz).

Now we just need to hope there’s a deal in place to sign with us, which I can’t imagine wouldn’t be the case.

pts2pndr

John Chambers: Agreed on the scarcity.

My preference is for them to draft Boqvist. But I’ll let the scouts figure out who skates and transitions the puck forward the best.

It’s a fine year to draft a defenseman, anyway.

plus 1

DBO

once again Chia does well on the small deals. If this had been the original return for MAroon, we would have been happy. A college player who can go to the AHL next year and is 1 to 3 years away instead of a mid 3rd pick that may or may not do anything. Solid deal.

pts2pndr

T0ML:
What if , and just bear with me, this was a plan.Shit season = EASY RESIGN ON CHEAP!!!!

naw i kid, it was horrible asset management … we all saw Strome as 3C day one…

There at very least has been a coach/management disconnect! I believe their character Is beyond reproach!

Numenius

jtblack: What about Mike Green for nxt season assuming …

1) he will come to Edm
2) he will take a 1 yr or 2 yr deal
3) he will take $5 mil or less per
4) it works under our cap

That’d be nice, but I don’t see how our cap allows it.

Estimated cap next year: 80M.

Signing all free agents (or comparables) to similar contacts with slight raises and keeping Nuge, signing Benning for $2M and Nurse for 4.5M already gets you to 77.5 M.

That leaves 2.5M, which is not enough to sign Green.

We’d either have to trade Nuge or find a way for Russell or Lucic to go on LTIR.

I wouldn’t dare trade Nuge, but if Chia can work a miracle with Russell or Lucic, more power to him.

OilClog

bendelson: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A-_UChElOho

Now I need some whiskey and long thoughts about that high school love,

OilClog

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1510178

June 2020 is the earliest an expansion draft happens per report.

pts2pndr

Andy Dufresne,

Sorry Andy this is leadership 101, Been there lived it!

leadfarmer

Cap to rise to between 78 and 82 mil for next season. Hope they use the 5% cap escalator to get it closer to the higher number. We need the cap to increase and increase fast

bendelson

OilClog: Vegas has told everyone why they’re successful, It’s a fact
The season is lost, development should be the goal, it’s a fact.
Chia has as many success stories in Edmonton as MacT as GM. It’s a fact.
JP didn’t get prime minutes in Bakers, he had to “earn” them over journey men, it’s a fact.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A-_UChElOho

pts2pndr

Andy Dufresne: I said, 2 Factors

1) when you bring a relatively young player into the organization, one who is/was struggling with confidence/consistency you do everything you can to boost his confidence. So you experiment. You play him with better players sometimes to see it that helps him offensively. You play him on the wing if hes lacking confidence because its an easier position to play. As he gains confidence you give him more PP time, etc IT A PROCESS.Its what good coaches do. Its not my opinion. Itsafact.

2) almost every new player (regardless of age) takes time to adjust to his new team/environment, learn the systems, build chemistry, build relaitionships, get to understand the coaching staff and what they are trying to instill…etc etcalso fact

You say a more experienced Coach….TMac.has been a professional coach for 25 years and NHL Head Coach for 10……how much experience are you looking for?

Its similar in principle to Draisaitl…..you think hes failing his way into becoming a Centerman?

You have misconstrued what I said. That in fairness may be how I said it. You have used the term earned ice time. What I am saying is quite simply that an experienced coach should not require half a season to confirm a scouting report on a player that states he is a much better center than winger! I also alluded to the fact that it is possible in a failed season for one of the coach and or GM to be culpible and not necessarily both! In only extreme cases can you say both your coach and GM are capable given the Oilers current standings. Either you have the tools or you don’t! In my opinion given what I have watched unfold one of the coach or GM has to be gone. It is about the team results and not based on who they are as individuals. I respect both of them and the respect has been earned! They just do not seem to work as a team. GM Coach disconect!

John Chambers

Andy Dufresne: Everything you say is accurate, I would only add that LHD seem to outnumber RHD about 3 to 1 so there is a scarcity component. Scarcity elevates value.

Agreed on the scarcity.

My preference is for them to draft Boqvist. But I’ll let the scouts figure out who skates and transitions the puck forward the best.

It’s a fine year to draft a defenseman, anyway.

--hudson--

Todd’s availability today. Nothing too interesting. Some of the people who cover the Oilers seem to have a lot of trouble forming a proper question.

Source video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrztOONUwYs
————————————————–
Q: …one of the things we’ve heard a couple players say is “We want to, you know, replay (?) the season, we know we’re not where we want to be, but we still want to show people we’re a good team.” And I wonder if you could continue that theme as you finish off the rest of the season…
A: Well we better continue that theme, you know, the players have shown a real strong work ethic, and a willingness to do it right over the past two weeks when it could have been easy to roll over and play dead. So that’s a real good sign for our team and our organization moving forward. Obviously we’ve got to get better in a lot of areas, but at least we’re given ourselves a chance right now to get better. It’s an indication that there’s a lot of self-pride in there and there’s a lot of guys that are upset with the performance we’ve had as a season. But the years not over, and we’ve got to continue to perform, and as I’ve been saying for a few weeks now, try and move the needle the right direction so that we can evaluate and we can head into the summer with a clear plan, and work from there.

Q: Along those same lines, you got five points the other night, from two guys who hadn’t played on the weekend, and in Auvitu’s case, he hadn’t played in a month. Is there a certain level of professionalism that, I know you expect, but is it nice to see as a secondary contribution in the game.
A: Yeah it’s very important, every team has players that don’t get into the lineup every night, you know, for whatever reasons and those players are often the hardest-working guys that are on your club. They maintain their fitness level, they mentally have to be very strong to overcome a lot of negative thoughts of not being in the lineup, but when they get the opportunity to perform you want them to be at their best and Yohan was that yesterday. He came in, and in a tough situation, where he hadn’t played for a while, and we have a number D men that are out and injured… he came in and performed very well. So good for him and it’s a reflection on his character I believe.

OilClog

Andy Dufresne: This is nonsense.

Why? because it’s not the story you’re telling.

Vegas has told everyone why they’re successful, It’s a fact

The season is lost, development should be the goal, it’s a fact.

Chia has as many success stories in Edmonton as MacT as GM. It’s a fact.

JP didn’t get prime minutes in Bakers, he had to “earn” them over journey men, it’s a fact.

TMac has been coaching for 10years straight with all the rigours that go with it, his hair is whiter then it’s ever been. Could the man be burnt out and need some time away? Yea pure non sense.

Please spit some more Chia success for us all kind sir.

Woodguy v2.0

knighttown: Thanks for that Woodguy.

One game means literally nothing but I’ll tell you who JF reminded me of last night.End-of-days Justin Schultz.All he was missing was the one-hand-on-the-stick mosey.His loss of the stick on his failed stick check on Aberg was a downright spot on Schulzian imitation.

Slavin on the other hand, me likey.What do the numbers show there?He has always given McDavid fits.LHD isn’t ideal but he’s big and can skate and seems really committed to the defensive side of the puck.I like another poster’s Nurse comparison but he’s got maybe less tools but way more polish.Nurse is still a D- in offensive zone awareness.He’s also just 23 years old and put up 34 last year assumingly with almost no PP time.

He reminds me of a couple of those young horses in Anaheim; Manson and Montour.Complete 3-zone players with tools and a toolkit.

Man with Fleury there now they’ve got some real pedigree.What are your thoughts on Pesce and Hanifan?Who is stirring the drink on that defensive unit and who is along for the ride?Gotta think someone is going to be moved for help up front.

Slavin-Pesce is a top 5, probably top 3 tough minute Dpair in the leauge.

They were last year too.

Crazy.

OilClog

Andy Dufresne: I said, 2 Factors

1) when you bring a relatively young player into the organization, one who is/was struggling with confidence/consistency you do everything you can to boost his confidence. So you experiment. You play him with better players sometimes to see it that helps him offensively. You play him on the wing if hes lacking confidence because its an easier position to play. As he gains confidence you give him more PP time, etc IT A PROCESS.Its what good coaches do. Its not my opinion. Itsafact.

2) almost every new player (regardless of age) takes time to adjust to his new team/environment, learn the systems, build chemistry, build relaitionships, get to understand the coaching staff and what they are trying to instill…etc etcalso fact

You say a more experienced Coach….TMac.has been a professional coach for 25 years and NHL Head Coach for 10……how much experience are you looking for?

1. Player has stated several times in both organizations his confidence comes back being a center, not playing the wing. That’s when this player loses his confidence, he’s admitted as much. There’s a lotto pick that has a much better RHD shot that needs confidence with the scoring of goals? Where’s his PP time with the top unit in the position he’s tailor made for? It’s a fact.

2. The coach with 10 years of head coaching experience in the NHL used 60% of the season like it’s an extended preseason. He refused to spread the offense, he refused to try Nuge on the MCwing until the season is lost. He refused to removed Letestu off of the power play or penalty kill, and both are exceptionally better after the player was traded. He put Lucic into game situations he should never be in and costed the team important wins during the first 90 days of the season, this is after a full season with the player. The experience coach failed to recognize players strengths and weaknesses after having them at his disposal for 2-3 seasons now. It’s a fact.