Drinking Muddy Water

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers didn’t mark their man worth a tinker’s damn last night, from sunup to sundown. Given a 3-0 lead despite getting hammered in possession, they collectively said screw that noise and began drinking muddy water by the bucket. Good lord sometimes you wonder if this crew has repeatable skills. This kind of game is beyond galling, it has to be fixed. I understand Oscar is gone for the year, but the man coverage was poor and at times I think the Oilers shifted to “man on the street” coverage. You watch that game and tell me: What on earth were they trying to do?

THE ATHLETIC!

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I’M A MAN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 7-7-0, goal differential -2 (14 points)
  • March 2017: 10-2-1, goal differential +21 (21 points)
  • March 2018: 7-5-2, goal differential +3 (16 points)

Despite last night’s game, it has been a good month. If the Oilers ran an 82-game season in the way they’ve performed in March, their record would be (about) 41-29-12, 94 points. That’s in the range of playoffs. Not that it matters, but the hockey you’ve been watching featured enough success to project as a playoff pace. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen it, wanted to remind you.

AFTER 77, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 30-40-7, goal differential -45 (67 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 43-25-9, goal differential +39 (95 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 34-37-6, goal differential -29 (74 points)

Oilers can erase the memory of last night’s game with a win on the coast tomorrow night, and a Saturday night chaser of two points in Calgary would put the team dangerously close to 80 points on the year. Of course, they could fall into a funk and lose out through season’s end, there’s no way to predict this team.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-2-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Larsson were 9-11 in 16:28, 0-1 GF. Were 3-9 in SCF and 1-3 in HDSC, it was that kind of night. Were 5-8 against Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson in seven minutes, that line was filthy all night long. Holy hell. Dubois was playing LW last I paid attention but he is the pivot on this line and was splendid. Larsson wasn’t tight against Panarin on the second goal. Nurse has been chasing for weeks, needs to remember his transporter abilities and do that more often.
  • Russell-Bear were 13-15 in 12:22, but 0-3 GF. Were 7-13 against Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson, somehow got loose against the second pairing for 6:33. Bear made some good outlet passes but was not good in coverage. Russell was a day late too often and was very poor in outlet passing.
  • Sekera-Benning were 10-11 in 10:43, 0-2 GF. Went 6-11 in 5:00 against Jenner-Wennberg-Vanek, who was absolutely a pain in the ass all night long. Sekera doesn’t hear footsteps and doesn’t see oncoming trains and he can’t win a battle at all. Genuinely concerned. Benning was active but not terribly productive.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 13 of 18, .722. Laurent Brossoit stopped seven of nine (woo hoo) .778.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Slepyshev-Khaira-Kassian went 7-6 (Kassian in 8:43) and 3-6 (Slepyshev in 6:07) with Drake Caggiula (4-0 in 2:33) replacing Pete Best. Each of the regular fourth-line men did some good things, but nothing rhymed. Khaira pushed, I’d like to see him higher in the lineup, with more skill. Went 4-4 against Milano-Dubinsky-Bjorkstrand, no one scoring on anyone’s watch. I think you take that from your No. 4 line.
  • Caggiula-Draisaitl-Aberg were 5-7 in 5:58, 0-2 GF. Line was 4-6 in six minutes (0-1) against Jenner-Wennberg-Vanek, I don’t think either winger for Edmonton was strong on the night. Lucic joined Leon for five minutes, going 6-4, 2-1 in scoring chances. Leon needs help, people. Aberg needs to impact the game way more than he did last night if he’s to grab an NHL job in Edmonton.
  • Lucic-Strome-Puljujarvi executed at their usual levels, going 7-6 in six minutes, 0-0 GF. Lost the scoring chance battle 1-2, and Strome had a GA when Caggiula-Aberg were out there with him, but the original trio was solid. I noticed some negative online last night about JP, not sure what people saw. For me, Puljujarvi would be one of the forwards I’d rate as being good (only McDavid was great on the night, in my opinion).
  • Nuge-McDavid-Rattie had five points and all kinds of momentum but the entire bridge collapsed. The line had a terrible night in possession, going 11-18, 1-4 GF in 12:55. Lordy. Went 9-13, 1-1 against the Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson line, the Oilers didn’t have an answer for them when the game was being won. Rattie can’t disappear as he did last night, that’s the one thing he cannot do while keeping the 1R job. Nuge got in some bad luck on the first GA, but this line wasn’t sharp defensively all night long.

GOD’S FLASHLIGHT, LAST 10 GAMES (5X5 60 SCORING)

  1. Connor McDavid 5.57
  2. Ty Rattie 3.65
  3. Nuge 3.42
  4. Pontus Aberg 3.12
  5. Leon Draisaitl 2.30
  6. Drake Caggiula 1.56
  7. Jujhar Khaira 1.21
  8. Zack Kassian 1.17
  9. Ryan Strome 1.11
  10. Jesse Puljujarvi 1.07
  11. Anton Slepyshev 0.67
  12. Milan Lucic 0.51

Via Natural Stat Trick

McDavid is blowing the doors off NHL teams, Nuge and Rattie offering a strong rhythm section and keeping their sticks on the ice. Leon is posting stronger numbers than Nuge would be delivering (I believe this to be true) on a second line with Aberg and Caggiula, but you’d like him to have stronger linemates. I enjoyed the shuffle last night that saw JP and Lucic move up with LD, would like to see the Finn stapled there for the rest of the season.

CORSI FOR 5X5, LAST 10 GAMES (DEFENSE)

  1. Andrej Sekera 46.67
  2. Matt Benning 46.67
  3. Kris Russell 45.06
  4. Adam Larsson 44.77
  5. Ethan Bear 43.79
  6. Darnell Nurse 40.82

Via NaturalStatTrick

Nurse has struggled in the last 10, Oilers don’t have enough actual NHL defensemen (Oscar is one) and are running a flat out rookie every night. Andrej Sekera is playing third pair and isn’t close to 50 percent in possession. Would they buy him out? I can’t see it but the Edmonton Oilers need to be much better in the fall at the position.

His NHLE from this past season is 82gp, 11-17-28, that’s just shy of what we might expect from a top flight offensive forward. I believe he’ll settle in as a two-way winger in pro and have also believed he’ll get a full season in the AHL before moving up. We should keep in mind two things: The Oilers need value contracts at the NHL level, and Benson is highly regarded by the organization. Could we see him in Edmonton by this time next year?

Usually a player breaks out around the time one notices a slump but it’s something to watch. Yamamoto is 2gp, 0-1-1 so if he picks up a couple of points in the next game all will be well. A lot of his value comes in the offense so it’s pretty easy to read how he’s going. Yamamoto’s NHLE (82gp, 12-26-38) puts him on a collision course for opening night in the NHL. Whenever I write that, someone posts “he should go back to junior” but the young man has played  four seasons at that level and turns 20 in September. Ideally, the Oilers have enough quality, balance and depth to send Yamamoto to Bakersfield but history informs us that Yamamoto is a strong candidate for opening night.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A rollicking show beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. I don’t know why, but Bruce is always scheduled after an ass-kicking. He’ll use his wonderful vocabulary to describe the scene and we’ll look forward to April.
  • Meghan Montemurro from the Athletic. We’ll chat Phillies, who may actually be phormidable some nights this year.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. Who is moving up? Down? We’ll have a lash at the players who might be available around Edmonton’s pick in the first round.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Pescador

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Dylan Strome would be a nice acquisition. What would we trade to get him?

His brother Ryan, of course

Pescador: Lucic point totals are important but the bigger problem for him is making simple plays look impossible.
Soft parade seems to be helping in that regard,
I’m not going to hold my breath for some sort of bounce back year stats wise for Lucic especially if Dylan Strome is his center for the majority of next season.
The NHL’s stance on Goaltender interference thinks that Strome is inconsistent

Dylan Strome would be a nice acquisition. What would we trade to get him? 😉

godot10

Bank Shot: Historically Lucic has been an above average finisher. So maybe next season we see something of a bounce back.

He’s shooting like half of his career percentage right now?

If he was as well liked as Eberle here I think more people would be preaching patience.

Eberle was 25 ish. Lucic is 30ish. One is entering his prime. The other when big forwards tend to fall off the cliff.

jake70

RIP Le Grand Orange

Pescador

Wilde:
Bank Shot,

I think Eberle got more rope from some, less than others, and it’s the same with Lucic.

What we know for sure is that we’ve seen the breaking point where most of what’s said is negative, for both of them.

Milan rebounding? It’ll happen, his shooting % will go up, but I have a feeling his opportunity to shoot, especially in a dangerous area, will never be as plentiful as result of docked ice-time. Particularly less ice-time with a top tier playmaking centre.

So I don’t think it’s fair to the guy to ever expect a full rebound to 55/82.

Lucic point totals are important but the bigger problem for him is making simple plays look impossible.
Soft parade seems to be helping in that regard,
I’m not going to hold my breath for some sort of bounce back year stats wise for Lucic especially if Dylan Strome is his center for the majority of next season.
The NHL’s stance on Goaltender interference thinks that Strome is inconsistent

Pescador

Kinger_Oil.redux:
NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

– By the way thought of you when I saw this.A few weeks ago you were talking about sports photography.Randy Johnson, he’s big time into baseball photography…

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/randy-johnson-opens-1989-baseball-231004981.html

Randy Johnson is big time of everything

elgruntus

Can we take the PPG argument out of the equation?

When Nuge lost the Calder to Landeskog, it was generally accepted that it was because Nuge missed too many games with injuries.

RNH had .84 PPG (52 Pts in 62 gms)
Landeskog had .63 PPG (52 pts in 82 gms)

Now, the argument is flipped in favor of the injured player??

Kinger_Oil.redux

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

– By the way thought of you when I saw this. A few weeks ago you were talking about sports photography. Randy Johnson, he’s big time into baseball photography…

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/randy-johnson-opens-1989-baseball-231004981.html

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Well put.

Tenant->tenet?
But yeah you summarized it well.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Side: .

And people saying “the Oilers have to make the playoffs for McDavid to win the Hart” is false. Precedent has already been set that players who aren’t going to the playoffs can win the Hart.

You do not have to make the playoffs to win a Hart, no matter how many times people say otherwise.

– In common-law there is a term called “convention”. It’s basically non legal “rules” that are understood, and following as practice. But they are unwritten

– While it is true that you do not have to make the playoffs, it’s only happened once in the last 50 years, exceptional year of Lemieux, when Gretz was injured

– And only 4 times in over 100 years has the Hart not gone to playoff team.

– So its pretty entrenched as a convention that in order to be the most valuable, you have to be doing it on a playoff team. I think that’s cool actually

– It’s hardly a tragedy or miscarriage of justice it Kucherov, 40 100 and turn around his team wins, and Conner doesn’t.

– This convention of being a playoff team reinforces the belief that the playoffs matter

– It’s fine to argue the semantics of the language of most valuable, but ignoring the convention because our favourite player has had 25 exceptional games after the team is no longer playing for anything, ignores a basic historic tenet of the award.

Bank Shot,

Eberle? Well liked? Maybe in the days of HOPE hype maybe.

The last few years fans were mostly fierce critics or people who acknowledged his shortcomings while valuing his goal scoring.

Very few out and out liked him.

This site admittedly probably had more people who were in that last camp.

That said Eberle never had a season as bad as Lucic this year. It’s not his lack of scoring. It is his horrendous giveaway to takeaway ratio and his big negative penalty ratio. Almost all his penalties are stick infraction minors, too.

The only thing he is doing is hitting, because he does not have the puck.

To me., the media has been far more lenient on Lucic than they were on Eberle.

I don’t hate Lucic. The contract is Chia’s fault. I hope he bounces back.

Wilde

Bank Shot,

I think Eberle got more rope from some, less than others, and it’s the same with Lucic.

What we know for sure is that we’ve seen the breaking point where most of what’s said is negative, for both of them.

Milan rebounding? It’ll happen, his shooting % will go up, but I have a feeling his opportunity to shoot, especially in a dangerous area, will never be as plentiful as result of docked ice-time. Particularly less ice-time with a top tier playmaking centre.

So I don’t think it’s fair to the guy to ever expect a full rebound to 55/82.

Bank Shot

Wilde:
The league as a whole, is shooting 13.8% ish on their high danger chances this year, by the way.

So if Milan Lucic was an ‘average’ finisher cashing ‘average’ high danger chances, he’d have at least 4 more goals.

Unfortunately he’s far worse than league average even though he’s working with 97-laced HDC’s.

Historically Lucic has been an above average finisher. So maybe next season we see something of a bounce back.

He’s shooting like half of his career percentage right now?

If he was as well liked as Eberle here I think more people would be preaching patience.

VOR

Years ago I was retooling my skills in grad school and because it fit my schedule and my curiosity I took comparative anatomy. It was wicked fun. The final included garbage bags with bones in them. You had to feel the bones and say what animal (proper scientific name) they came from. I had a blast.

We also had to do a fifteen minute presentation. I spent several days listening to presentations about echo location in bats. Apparently, this fascinates many people. The student right before me gave one of the best presentation I have ever heard on any topic, about bats and echo location. The difference between Wayne and everyone else was he was completely immersed in the topic and deeply passionate about it and he knew everything there was to know about bats. People actually cheered.

I got up and started talking about taste buds, their morphology and the different types and how what happens on our tongue is turned into this amazing range of “tastes” more than 3,000 of them. People are shuffling, talking, and gathering up their stuff because I am the last speaker. I finish and am getting ready to sit down and the Professor and his TAs start firing questions at me. Nobody else got questions, and these were hard frigging questions delivered with a great deal of sarcasm and doubt about my thinking. It went on and on and eventually the other students started to leave and they quit.

I got the top mark in the class for the year. Though I was 3rd or 4th in the presentation. A few years later I got to ask the professor, Joe Nelson, what he was doing with the interrogation. “In more than 30 years of teaching I can count on the fingers of one hand the truly original, possibly important presentations student’s have given. It is so rare I thought I owed it to each of you to give you my full attention and strictest criticism. I don’t give a rat’s ass about echo location in bats, it has been studied to death. Taste on the other hand is unknown territory. Every time I experience a new taste I think of you and wonder if you were right about how it works.”

“So why didn’t you give me the top marks for presentation?”

“Because you did a terrible job of presenting a brilliant idea. You did the idea a disservice. I should have marked you even lower.”

My way of saying ignore my lousy presentation as I present some brilliant ideas.

You all know Bill James, let me introduce you to William James.

My favourite Will James quote is:

“I originally studied medicine in order to be a physiologist, but I drifted into psychology and philosophy from a sort of fatality. I never had any philosophic instruction, the first lecture on psychology I ever heard being the first I ever gave”

Will James is arguably the greatest psychologist in history and a tremendously important and influential philosopher.

Tonight we are going to focus on his concept “live choices”. “Good decision making,” he argued, “is about maximizing your live choices.” This is James being funny. He suffered from recurrent bouts of severe depression and once spent months debating with himself over whether or not to commit suicide. He told friends and family he felt he didn’t have enough options to make an informed decision – thus live choices – the enriched field of options that would allow somebody to make an informed decision to take their own life.

For our purposes you need to know just briefly thinking about an option doesn’t make it a “live choice”. No you give it life by thinking about it deeply over a long period of time, by seeing how it feels intuitively and emotionally and debating it thoroughly and critically. This is of course not how people normally go about making decisions.

Those of you who have read both Blink and Think will understand whether you should use intuition and gut instinct or in depth analysis depends on the decision setting. So jumping out of the way of a runaway horse is clearly no place for extensive critical debate. Deciding to go to war with North Korea or Iran on the other hand is no place for going with your gut and ignoring the facts and other options.

The NHL draft is a place for maximizing the live options. But there is a substantial body of evidence that says scouts and GMs place players in bins, the top tier of the first round, the next tier, etc. This instantly reduces the likelihood of the correct decision being made.

I am going to make a bold statement: teams that spend the most money and deploy the most resources on scouting are the teams that consistently out perform Central Scouting. This is because their bins are bigger and they know far more about all the players in each bin. At every stage they have more live options! Tomorrow I will present the evidence. For now focus on the idea:

Draft success is partly down to investing resources.

This is undoubtedly in part because “teams that spend a lot of money on the draft actually value each draft pick more highly and invest more in their development.” That’s Bill James the stats guru and a good place to stop.

Wilde

Spokane’s gonna lose this game, shots were 20-9 for them at one point and are 30-29 for Portland to end the game.

No points for Yamamoto

Side

Gotta love sports, where unwritten rules not only impact how the game is played but also how award winners are determined, apparently.

Side

godot10: Nothing “valuable” has really been accomplished if you don’t make the playoffs.Valuable also means inspiring better performances out of ones teammates. And his team has gone backwards dramatically.

MacKinnon has more points per game (for the moment, still).He is carrying a worse team on paper on his back.And his team still has a strong chance of making the playoffs.The teams results have improved dramatically.Hall has three of those four things, and is close enough in the 4th.

Player bonuses were often tied to making the playoffs.

You suggest that the rest of the team shouldn’t even try.That would make Connor even more valuable to his team.Part of being valuable is that your teammates and coach should give a shit.The players and the coach should feel responsible for McDavid not winning the Hart.They didn’t do their part.

I thought the team going backwards was mostly Todd’s fault though?

So if we’re placing all of the weight on accomplishments in terms of value, how come the Hart trophy isn’t given to the best player on the Stanley Cup winning team?

Where do I suggest the rest of the team shouldn’t even try? Do we really think the rest of the team is giving up so McDavid can win the Hart? That’s not how this works at all.

“on paper” has no meaning when we have the actual results infront of us. Right now, the Avalanche is a better team than the Oilers. Mackinnon is playing with players that are performing better than Oilers players are, which is why they are making it to the playoffs and the Oilers are not.

And people saying “the Oilers have to make the playoffs for McDavid to win the Hart” is false. Precedent has already been set that players who aren’t going to the playoffs can win the Hart.

You do not have to make the playoffs to win a Hart, no matter how many times people say otherwise.

Nix

I’ve never seen so much ridiculous over thinking and leaps in logic over a trophy.

It’s simple.. In any sport, in any league, in any year, when the term ‘MVP’ is spoken, does ANY average fan think ‘oh, that’s the guy that did something rad because he’s way superduper good and also his teammates did this that and the other thing with the help of a talented coach and relevant systems and also the full moon was in bloom under the cats eye when the chickens guts spelled out the gods whims of fancy while Oracles wept on a bleeding star’…

NO.

They think ‘he was the best player that year’.

And they are correct.

Georges

Going back to Gretzky Year 1 (79-80), only 16 of 37 Art Ross winners have won the Hart.

4 goalie wins. 1 defenseman. 32 forwards. So half the time they’ve chosen forwards, voters went with someone other than the scoring title winner.

In Gretzky’s first season with LAK, he had 168 points in 78 games. He had a hand in 45% of the Kings’ goals. He won the Hart over Art Ross winner Lemieux, who had 199 points in 76 games. His 57% (!) share of the Penguins’ goals was not valuable enough apparently.

And McDavid’s 46% share of the Oilers’ goals this season? In superstar land, no biggie.

Wilde

deardylan,

I prefer to wallow in despair when she’s gone. (The playoffs)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIdnpjceg9A

Tesla's Hair

Wilde your are starting to sound like namesake…Oscar W

Its Sunset in Hawaii and Time for Theme Time Radio, Themes, Schemes and Muddy Waters

Listen to that keyboard at 1.44 and Forget All Your Chia Seeds of Discontent….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRjBkNYnlik

“I’d Rather Drink Muddy Water”

Baby, we got to have a little talk
I ought to pack up my things and walk
I know a dollar goes from hand to hand
But before I let you go from man to man
I’d rather drink muddy water
Sleep out in a hollow log

I work for you like a Georgia mule
My friends all laughed, called me a fool
Your kisses are as sweet as can be
But before I let you make a fool out of me
I’d rather drink muddy water
Lay down and sleep in a hollow log

I love you baby, but you won’t be fair
You don’t know how to be on the square
Have your fun baby, if you must
But before I’ll have a woman that I cannot trust
I’d rather drink muddy water
Sleep out in a hollow log
Muddy water

Yes, Baby, we got to have a little talk
Said I ought to pack up my things and walk
I know a dollar goes from hand to hand
But before I let you go from man to man
I’d rather drink muddy water
Sleep out in a hollow log

I work for you like a Georgia mule
My friends all laughed and they called me a fool
Your kisses are as sweet as can be
But before I let you make a fool out of me
I’d rather drink muddy water
Sleep in a hollow log

Because I love you baby, but you won’t be fair
You don’t know how to be on the square
Have your fun baby, if you must
But before I’ll have a woman that I can’t trust
I’d rather drink muddy water
Drink muddy water
Drink muddy water
Sleep out in a hollow log
Muddy water

Wilde

Georges: “They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.”

Where did you get your numbers?

In all seriousness Georges, I was using naturalstattrick.com’s line tool at the time I was writing, and just grabbed Nathan Walker’s half hour without/30 seconds with or whatever it was and used the fourth row as a proxy for the team without McDavid as the basis for a ballpark, then did a more thorough double-check later with the intention of editing or redacting my comment if I was way off, but I wasn’t.

I rationalised my low-effort calculations by the fact that it’s an entirely unscientific and raw way to even evaluate the situation in the first place, and that no perfect arithmetic is going to pull into the realm of the respectable or empirical.

I then rationalised making a joke as a reply to you because this wasn’t worth typing out.

I then then rationalised typing it out anyways because my time isn’t valuable.

Why did I type this out?

Georges

Wilde: My ass matters!!

Ha! Good game.

Wilde

Georges: Yep

Say it with me:

Sixty-four goals matters.

My ass matters!!

Wilde

Bruce McCurdy,

McLellan has a hair-trigger detonator for most of the lineup.

Then there’s Khaira as 4C.

18 and 16 have massively better results in shots and chances together than apart, but they’ve never gone back to it.

It’s even been long enough to creep into goals(46% Strome without Khaira, 40% Khaira without Strome) which makes it even more confusing, because Todd usually follows the goal share.

Georges

Wilde: My ass.

Yep

Say it with me:

Sixty-four goals matters.

Harpers Hair

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
To add:

Mackinnon
Kucherov
Kopitar
Hall
McDavid
Malkin
Bergeron
Wheeler
Subban
Giroux
might be a top 10 in no particular order. I may be missing some.

Playoffs for a team that was bad last year are one factor that does matter to me.

Thus Jersey–Hall goes from 50pts to 90pts and leads them to the postseason
LA-Kopitar goes from 50pts to 90pts and does the same
Avs- Ditto Mackinnon.

Those are MVP worthy seasons.

Kucherov’s is MVP worthy, too but he suffers from recency bias working against him.

McDavid’s season is also MVP worthy and he is the most valuable player in the league but semantics or whatever the trophy has always gone to the most valuable one season performance. This is not new.

So although no one is more valuable in the League, I won’t consider it robbery if Connor does not win this year.

When he puts up 125pts and drags the Oil to the playoffs next year he will win another Hart

Your post led me to look at Malkin’s season thus far.

3rd in goals scored with 42. 3rd in points with 93. 4 fewer games than McDavid while playing almost 3m minutes a game less.

What a fantastic season.

Bruce McCurdy

who:
Would love to see Kharia on Drais left wing for the next 5 games. He seems like one of the few Oiler forwards who has any poise with the puck.
Sure he commits the odd turnover,but he can also make a play, in all zones. How many Oiler forwards, other than the big three, can we say that about?

Nice idea, I’d rather see Draisaitl with Khaira than the defensive black hole that is Caggiula. Khaira has been written in pen at 4C since Letestu left, but he has real potential as a top 9 LW whcih might cover off some of his weaknesses (deep d-zone coverage, shitty on faceoffs) while taking advantage of his strengthss (strong on the walls, heavy shot, poised with the puck as you correctly point out).

For now he seems to be getting pigeon holed, maybe a different coach would see him differently. That said, TMc probably deserves some credit for Khaira.s growth as a player.

Wilde

Goal was unassisted, Yamamoto remains pointless early in the game, as I write this Portland scores on the powerplay.

Wilde

Georges: “They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.”

Where did you get your numbers?

My ass.

Spokane just tied the game at 1, JAD.

Yamamoto may or may not have a point on the play.

To add:

Mackinnon
Kucherov
Kopitar
Hall
McDavid
Malkin
Bergeron
Wheeler
Subban
Giroux
might be a top 10 in no particular order. I may be missing some.

Playoffs for a team that was bad last year are one factor that does matter to me.

Thus Jersey–Hall goes from 50pts to 90pts and leads them to the postseason
LA-Kopitar goes from 50pts to 90pts and does the same
Avs- Ditto Mackinnon.

Those are MVP worthy seasons.

Kucherov’s is MVP worthy, too but he suffers from recency bias working against him.

McDavid’s season is also MVP worthy and he is the most valuable player in the league but semantics or whatever the trophy has always gone to the most valuable one season performance. This is not new.

So although no one is more valuable in the League, I won’t consider it robbery if Connor does not win this year.

When he puts up 125pts and drags the Oil to the playoffs next year he will win another Hart

Georges

Wilde:
Harpers Hair,

The Oilers this year are not a mediocre team without McDavid.

They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.

There’s been 77 hours of hockey played by the Oilers.

That’s a +172/-262 goal split

Aka a -90 goal differential team.

The Buffalo Sabres are -73.

Just a laughable assertion.

“They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.”

Where did you get your numbers?

knighttown,

Not really. I don’t follow the media at all. Yesterday’s Spec rant aside I don’t read about hockey or listen to it anywhere but here and on the game feeds.

So I am not falling into any trap

And you have my reasons wrong.

Top teams are not excluded.

Who is Winnipeg’s MVP candidate? Wheeler? Maybe. Dubious. Deep team.

Nashville’s? D and G by committee.

Vegas? The coach?

Out East
Boston? Marchand if he had not missed 25 pct of the season.

Penguins? Malkin but Crosby and Kessel are also top 10 scorers

Tampa? Kucherov is in my top 5 but Stamkos and Hedman help a lot.

Bubble teams like the Avs, Kings, Devils who have one clearly outperforming player therefore rise up.

Michael Jordan should have been MVP every year he played basketball in the 90s except his baseball half season. But they gave the award to Malone and Barkley sometimes. Did that tarnish his legacy? Nope. He is the GOAT.

Not winning the Hart this year won’t dent McDavid’s. Rather it will cement his case for future Harts when the team returns to the playoffs.

Tesla's Hair

Looking into the muddy water here is hard its because I am on the Big island of Hawai’i and the water is crystal clear, sky is blue, every sunset is a miracle when I can listen to my Oilers here in the middle of the Pacific, late afternoon and cheer on McDavid +1.

Sometimes I wonder if… the Oilers team reads Lowetide’s site and comments section. How would we know?

1. I wonder if…only goal left this season is to have their leader win as many crowns as they can. A great team puts the C in Captain. I give them 10/10 for this effort. Anything less is uncivilized.

2. I wonder if… sometimes the Oilers players read this section to see how many fans will hate them when they lose and love them when they win. And what percentage of fans will love them when they lose and love them the same even when they win.

3. I wonder what the players family says to them when they come home after a tough loss. I wonder what Todds and Chia family say after a non-playoff year? I wonder what Lowetide’s family to him after a wild flurry of comments after a tough loss like the last one?

4. I wonder if they are listening to Connor McDavid suggestions for what to do with the team next year. A great coach/GM puts the C in Captain.

5. I wonder if.. OP will continue to be Optimistic Pouzar in the 2018/2019 season. Well I don’t wonder about that–that is just who he is no matter rain or shine or muddy waters.

All I know for sure is…

97. In Connor I trust.

99. If this season you saw Muddy Water in the Oilers Stanley Cup Bowl – what would you do to get it to settle?

a) Boil It
b) Shake it
c) Rattle it
o) Roll it
i) Beet it
l) BBQ it
e) Go on a complaint fast
r) Ask for slo mo review
s) Zamboni It
g ) Other?
o!) Ask Connor?

Wilde

Harpers Hair: Okay then, they’re a bad team with or without.

Still no!

With him, they’re a -26 team, without him they’re a -90 team.

Say it with me:

Sixty-four goals matters.

Gret99zky

knighttown,

“This year’s winner Taylor Hall.” post above is epic. Well done.

Gret99zky

OmJo: Every team has a MVP. McDavid is the most talented of those MVPs, but his impact has unfortunately not been enough to overcome the deficiencies in Chiarelli’s team building and McLellans systems.

He’s definitely the league MVP.

This is a very good explanation of the situation. Well done.

Harpers Hair

Wilde: Sure, I don’t care about the Hart.

I just take the issue with this statement which is a popular one right now:

Okay then, they’re a bad team with or without.

knighttown

The other factor that is never talked about is that no one gets defended like McDavid. I’d love to hear a coach elaborate on how they game plan but I’ve never seen anyone else get marked 150 feet from the other teams net. It’s the equivalent of Barry Bonds being intentionally walked 100 times a season.

That alone tells you who the best player in the world is.

JimmyV1965

Scungilli Slushy: I’d do this in a New York minute. And add Khudobin at 2M x 2. Holtby would have 2 years left on contract I think and at his age may be the guy for a while until someone emerges.

He has been a top 5 goaler the last few years and is 28. Due diligence of course.

The cap can handle it next year and I think would make the most difference to success. And Holtby is a prairie boy so that fits the Oiler MO.

Then year after unload Russell and maybe Sekera and add more.

Why would anyone trade for Carlson? He’s a UFA in a couple months. Maybe a 5th round pick.

knighttown

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
For the record if the Avs, Devils, Kings make the playoffs I think the MVP should come from one of those teams.McDavid would be 5th or 6th behind those 3 and Kucherov, probably ahead of Malkin but close.

Lindsay should be his or Mackinnon’s though.

You’re falling into that PHWA trap of narrowing the criteria too much. It’s not a coincidence that you’re candidates all come from bubble teams. You’re automatically excluding the top teams because the guy has help. And you’re excluding the bottom group because of the fallacy that you couldn’t have value if you finished 17th because you would have missing the playoffs anyway.

In basketball you’d be excluding Stef and KD every year because they have each other.

In baseball you’d exclude Mike Trout who is unanimously the best in the game because he’s just one of 25 on that roster.

For Connor McDavid to reach your bar of dragging his team into a wild card he’d have to turn a -26 goal differential to a +20. That’s 46 mor goals for since he can’t stop pucks.

So for him to be considered he’d have to be at about 150 points when this season is over.

This is the most important individual award in the sport and it matters when we compare players across eras. Do we really want to look back in 30 years and say we had a top 3 player of all time in full bloom and we chose to give the key individual award to someone we know isn’t as good (and didn’t play as well) because of some semantic argument?

Wilde

Harpers Hair: No I don’t but that is far from the only factor in the voting. It’s abundantly obvious in the standings that a supernova McDavid cannot carry a team on his back but there could be a perception that MacKinnon and Hall can. We’ll see.

Sure, I don’t care about the Hart.

I just take the issue with this statement which is a popular one right now:

Harpers Hair:

With McDavid, the Oilers are a mediocre team and, without McDavid, they are a mediocre team.

Harpers Hair

Wilde: Do you have a specific criticism of my estimate for our goal differential without 97?

“They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.

There’s been 77 hours of hockey played by the Oilers.

That’s a +172/-262 goal split”

No I don’t but that is far from the only factor in the voting. It’s abundantly obvious in the standings that a supernova McDavid cannot carry a team on his back but there could be a perception that MacKinnon and Hall can. We’ll see.

Wilde

Harpers Hair: Well, we really don’t know if they would be behind VCR, ARZ or BUF…but point taken.
In any event, Connor hasn’t been able to take them to the next level just like Dionne was never able to do on multiple bad teams. It’s a thing.

For the record, if I had a vote I would pick McDavid but I can also see why the actual voters wouldn’t.
There’s a lot of precedent for it.

Do you have a specific criticism of my estimate for our goal differential without 97?

“They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.

There’s been 77 hours of hockey played by the Oilers.

That’s a +172/-262 goal split”

knighttown

godot10: Not true of Colorado, New Jersey, or arguably LA…who sport three of main contenders for the Hart, one who still has more points per game than McDavid.

People are really twisting themselves in knots excluding people from the Hart candidacy.

-You have to make the playoffs. When that became the “standard” 5 teams missed the playoffs. Now 15 do. You are excluding half the teams in the NHL for the rest of time?
– next the player cannot play with anyone good but unfortunately most of the good teams have good players. Can’t take a Bruin, Pen, Lightning, Jet or Pred. So down to about 10 teams you can pick from.
– they have to be top 10 in NHL scoring so you can exclude Washington, Minnesota, Vegas, Columbus, Anaheim, San Jose and Toronto.

So see ya McDavid and Gaudreau. Clause 1.

See you Kooch, Malkin, Wheeler and Marchand. Clause 2…you’ve got Olympians on your teams. Buh -bye.

So this leaves MacKinnon, Giroux , Kopitar and Hall.

Hall should be safe as long as he makes the playoffs. No Olympians on that roster.

Kopitar should be ok too except wait! Someone is executing the rarely used clause 3…Olympic goalie/defenseman clause. Oh no! He has both Doughty and Quick and we know you can’t be “the most valuable in the league if you aren’t even clearly the most valuable on your team” (TM). See you Anze.

As for Nate. We excluded Malkin because Sid and Phil were too close to him so with Rantanen right there do we exclude Nate too? but Rantanen is right there too. No sir! If the linemate is foreign and young then clearly he fits the “being dragged by a Canadian Olympian” clause. So Malkin can’t get it because he’s a product of Crosby but MacKInnon can get it because he’s dragging Rantanen. Got it?

What to do about Giroux? Voracek is 10 back. He is an Olympian but it was from a Shiite country. It’s close but I’d say you gotta use the Canadian Olympian clause again and assume Voracek would be collecting food stamps if it wasn’t for Giroux.

Hall, MacKinnon, Giroux.

Gentlemen and that 1 lady, your 2018 Hart trophy is awarded to the player from a team ranked between 8th and 16th (not 17th for sure!!!!!). The player must be in the top 10 in scoring and has to play on a team whose second best player I’ve never heard of.

This years winner, Taylor Hall!

God people are dumb.

Harpers Hair

Wilde: ——————–

mediocre

[mee-dee-oh-ker]

adjective
1.
of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad; barely adequate:

——————-

Would you consider 31st by a large margin, out of 31 teams, to be “neither good nor bad”?

Well, we really don’t know if they would be behind VCR, ARZ or BUF…but point taken.
In any event, Connor hasn’t been able to take them to the next level just like Dionne was never able to do on multiple bad teams. It’s a thing.

For the record, if I had a vote I would pick McDavid but I can also see why the actual voters wouldn’t.
There’s a lot of precedent for it.

For the record if the Avs, Devils, Kings make the playoffs I think the MVP should come from one of those teams.McDavid would be 5th or 6th behind those 3 and Kucherov, probably ahead of Malkin but close.

Lindsay should be his or Mackinnon’s though.

Wilde

Harpers Hair:
Looks pretty mediocre to me.

——————–

mediocre

[mee-dee-oh-ker]

adjective
1.
of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad; barely adequate:

——————-

Would you consider 31st by a large margin, out of 31 teams, to be “neither good nor bad”?

Harpers Hair

OmJo: New Jersey Devil’s don’t fit that team with a better core. If McDavid was the only player in the league with a 30+ point lead on his own team you might have an argument but both Hall and Kopitar are doing it and pushing their teams into the playoffs.

I think the people voting will see it this way:

Without Hall, the Devil’s aren’t a playoff contender. With Hall, they are.
Without MacKinnon, the Avalanche aren’t a playoff contender. Witb MacKinnon, they are.
Without McDavid, the Oilers aren’t a playoff contender. With him, they aren’t either.

This doesn’t mean McDavid is at fault. I think some fans might see him not winning the Hart as him being indirectly blamed for the team missing the playoffs, and therefore getting defensive about him. The only reason this team isn’t going to be the first team in NHL history to finish 31st is because of 97.

Every team has a MVP. McDavid is the most talented of those MVPs, but his impact has unfortunately not been enough to overcome the deficiencies in Chiarelli’s team building and McLellans systems.

He’s definitely the league MVP.

This. Although best player in the league, of which there is little doubt, doesn’t necessarily equate to MVP.

OmJo

Someone = Ryan Batty