Homeward Bound

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers finished their season schedule against the Calgary Flames with a loss on Saturday night. The final tally (3-2-0) was decidedly unsatisfactory, especially since both March games featured one-goal losses. We can say nothing matters (and what if it did?) but the bottom line is that losing to Calgary on Saturday night is a bitter pill. It’s another ‘wait until next year’ Sunday morning in Edmonton.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Is Milan Lucic tradeable? (will post link)
  • New Black Dog Pat: What’s the use of continuity when the results don’t inspire confidence?
  • Jonathan Willis: Aberg and Rattie audition for jobs as value contracts in major roles.
  • Lowetide: Condors Curios: Interesting things bubbling under in Bakersfield.
  • Jonathan Willis: Does Anton Slepyshev have a future with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Jujhar Khaira’s spot in the order.
  • Lowetide: The college way doesn’t necessarily represent the best way.
  • Lowetide: A superb summer in three movements.
  • Jonathan Willis: McDavid’s season shows how much the NHL has changed.
  • Lowetide: What are the Oilers getting in Cooper Marody?
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

CAPE FEAR, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 7-8-0, goal differential -3 (14 points)
  • March 2017: 10-2-1, goal differential +21 (21 points)
  • March 2018: 7-7-2, goal differential +1 (16 points)

The bottom line is that the team got the record deserved and that’s a bad way. If you have peak Connor McDavid and can’t win more than seven of 16 games, what are you?

AFTER 79, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 30-42-7, goal differential -48 (67 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 44-26-9, goal differential +38 (97 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 34-39-6, goal differential -31 (74 points)

This Oilers team has earned four extra points compared to the first Todd McLellan team. The roster erosion isn’t on Todd McLellan, but the deployment is going to get he or members of his stuff into a long and deep conversation in the coming days. We’ll see how this plays out, but at this point my suspicion is that those who are most responsible will not pay the ultimate (hockey) price. We wait.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-2-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-2-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games

Turns out I did have this team surrounded (very close prediction) but not in the right order. The goal differential is the distressing part, perhaps if Oscar Klefbom had been able to hang around.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera-Russell were 9-3 in 12:37, 2-1 GF and it’s an encouraging pair. Sekera appears to be returning to form, and Russell seems more settled. If they could clean up the outlet passing and take a little more care with the turnovers, I’d be prepared to recommend bringing both back in the fall. Spent half of their 5×5 minutes with McDavid’s line, who were just 2-3 in Corsi and 0-1 in GF. Were 4-3 (1-1 GF) against Frolik-Backlund-Brouwer, that’s not bad for six minutes.
  • Auvitu-Bear went 14-11 in 9:46, 0-1 GF. The pairing were 0-4 in HDSC’s and it felt as much. Were 7-3 in 4:04 against Gaudreau-Shore-Foo line, that was an unusual trio (they kept coming in on the left side and trying to perfect driving to the net. It was measure twice cut once all night and they got nothing done). This pairing is less than ideal.
  • Nurse-Larsson were 13-9 in 13:55, 0-0 GF. Despite the loss, I’m pleased McLellan is using this pairing a more reasonable amount (as a percentage). Were 2-6 against Gaudreau-Shore-Foo but 11-3 against all others.
  • Cam Talbot stopped four of seven, .571. He was poor. Al Montoya stopped 13 of 13, he was better.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-Strome-Puljujarvi went 8-4 in 9:22, 0-0 GF and 4-1 SF. The line was 2-1 in scoring chances but did nothing of the high danger variety. I like the line but they need to score more often. Went 6-1 against Bennett-Jankowski-Ferland.
  • Caggiula-Khaira-Aberg went 8-5 in 7:30, 0-0 GF and 5-1 in SF. The line was 3-2 in scoring chances but no high danger here. Edmonton needs a dynamic player on these two lines, Leon Draisaitl would ordinarily be on this one. Were 5-4 against Gaudreau-Shore-Foo.
  • Slepyshev-Cammalleri-Kassian went 9-11 in 9:46 and earned the extra icetime, 2-0 GF and 6-7 in SF. The trio was 6-6 in scoring chances and 4-4 in HDSC. One of the more effective evenings by an Oilers fourth line this season. Were 7-4 against Glass-Lazar-Hathaway.
  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Rattie were 9-11 in 11:51. They were 3-7 in SF, 0-2 in GF. Line was 4-5 in scoring chances and 0-2 in HDSC. Lots of people yelling shoot last night but for me 97 has more experience on two-on-one’s and I’ll trust his decisions. The line didn’t rhyme but we’re talking about a player who is coming off one of the truly outstanding scoring streaks in recent history. Shyte happens, and it did. Went 6-10 against Frolik-Backlund-Brouwer, 0-2 GF. It was not a successful evening from the world’s best hockey player. Reading more into it is silly. Oilers fans have myriad problems, Connor McDavid isn’t one of them.

HAPPY EASTER!

Ziggy is sleeping next to me, hogging the coyote blanket and dreaming of chasing rabbits. We have a bunch of them in the neighbourhood, sometimes there’s one in the backyard when she goes out to walkabout in the morning. Ziggy often looks at the rabbit, the rabbit back, and then the two animals go about their business while being very aware of the other. Sometimes she chases the rabbit but man my girl has no chance. These St. Albert rabbits are damned quick and Ziggy is no coyote. She’s spoiled but in fairness to us she’s a sweetheart. Even my neighbour John, the object of many hours of barking (she can see him in his kitchen, apparently some kind of illegal activity), is fond of her.

The kids are well, working and schooling and finding their way. This Easter they’ve been ripping the crawl space apart in search of games from their collective youth. “Spyrow” and “Sims” and all manner of games they were playing a decade ago (Playstation 2 is the format of choice after all these years).

The parents are well, enjoying life while remaining busy and pretending to be productive. I find myself thinking about the people no longer with us these days, seems lots of things remind me of those individuals lost along the way. Suspect it’s an age thing, at some point, if you live long enough, you run out of your people.

We are blessed in many ways, including a turkey coming out of the oven around 7 tonight (later than Dad wishes because kids are working). We have two kinds of pies (cherry and strawberry rhubarb) on the way, plus dressing and mashed potatoes and two kinds of vegetables plus salad. I look forward to these turkey days so much, partly because we get to take stock and see our kids laughing with friends and enjoying themselves. I never thought it would be so good to be old and boring but that’s where we are today. I wish you the best at Easter and Passover, if you celebrate one or both. I wish you all the best if you celebrate neither. Be good to yourself and each other. I think we need that more than anything right now.

Safin is making a case for turning pro in the fall and the Oilers certainly have room. If we assume all of Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, Safin and Cooper Marody turn pro, that’s four of 18 wingers (nine for Edmonton, nine for Bakersfield) who will be new hires with some degree of pedigree. If we add these men to the signed wingers for next season, the depth chart looks something like this:

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  2. Milan Lucic
  3. Zack Kassian
  4. Jesse Puljujarvi
  5. Pontus Aberg
  6. Kailer Yamamoto
  7. Joe Gambardella
  8. Mitch Callahan
  9. Cooper Marody
  10. Tyler Benson
  11. Ostap Safin

There are any number of RFA and UFA forwards, including Ty Rattie, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Iiro Pakarinen, Mike Cammalleri, Patrick Russell, Braden Christoffer and Brian Ferlin. In a way, this is a very easy problem to identify: The Oilers need skill on the wings. I think the group who will play in Bakersfield next season (from Yamamoto down) is an encouraging group, reflecting the organization’s realization that trading Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle left the team with real problems in terms of skill on the wing. The issue is how to get skilled men on the NHL roster by fall. That’s a sticky wicket.

Oilers are currently slated to draft No. 8 overall before the lottery, meaning a six percent chance of moving up. The lottery takes place late this month.

The young man is shooting more in these playoffs, a good sign. I will have “The 100 best players in the 2018 draft” for you on Wednesday. Oilers are going to get a good one in the first round.

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Wilde:
trencan,

To be fair, and I’m not saying leaving guys in Europe for a year isn’t optimal(it is in the vast majority of cases, especially late birthdays) the part of the story where even Hasek had to adjust to the league still did happen, and is real and is worth considering.

One thing that I don’t buy with Pulju: The theory that his agent pushed for NA play to get him the paycheque. If he did, that was a very risky bet for a guy being paid to solidify his clients future. Pulju could have blown the doors off of his first ELC year and set himself up for life after hockey very well starting at just his second contract and his agent should feel shame for gambling at those stakes.

Yeah he’s come out of nowhere in terms of buzz this year among NA scouts, and is in that back half of the top 10 EU skaters that somehow always has some guys that teams aren’t sold on by June.

There’s a number of strong forwards tearing up junior leagues at a level that merits a top 31 selection, but on draft day the Oilers might find one of them falling rowards that #40ish pick they’ll have.

Pronman gave him a big push in his midseason rankings. Right up with the top tier fwds actually. I now dream of Draisaitl to Bokk sorcery but he’ll probably go early 20s. Believe I read that he’s regarded as a shooter on the national team, though skilled with playmaking as well. Sounds dreamy.

Soooo what’s with Matty calling out Jesse but saying Lucic deserves a lot more rope than Jesse because he has 11 years under his belt?

MSM calling out the kids again and not applying the standard elsewhere.

It’s nauseating.

Wilde

trencan,

To be fair, and I’m not saying leaving guys in Europe for a year isn’t optimal(it is in the vast majority of cases, especially late birthdays) the part of the story where even Hasek had to adjust to the league still did happen, and is real and is worth considering.

One thing that I don’t buy with Pulju: The theory that his agent pushed for NA play to get him the paycheque. If he did, that was a very risky bet for a guy being paid to solidify his clients future. Pulju could have blown the doors off of his first ELC year and set himself up for life after hockey very well starting at just his second contract and his agent should feel shame for gambling at those stakes.

SwedishPoster: Don’t watch much u20, usually just bits and pieces but I’ve seen Bokk in the SHL and some u20 highlights. He’s a quick kid with really good hands, capable of both finishing and setting up teammates. He’s been real impressive coming from a lower level and getting games in the SHL straight away. The plan was to ease him in with the junior team but he just came and was dominant off the bat. Hard to tell what his upside is due to the big step up in competition, how good will he be once fully settled, but he’s certainly a first rounder for me.

Yeah he’s come out of nowhere in terms of buzz this year among NA scouts, and is in that back half of the top 10 EU skaters that somehow always has some guys that teams aren’t sold on by June.

There’s a number of strong forwards tearing up junior leagues at a level that merits a top 31 selection, but on draft day the Oilers might find one of them falling rowards that #40ish pick they’ll have.

russ99

Talbot’s decline is systemic.

Our forwards and defensemen hung him out to dry way too often early on. He still has the game to be a quality #1, but he needs support to get his head straight and his confidence back.

Also, we can’t play him such crazy minutes and expect him to be the same, we need a reliable backup.

leadfarmer

Confused:
Just reading NSH puts Tolvanen straight on the 1st and give him PP

Yet JP gets looch

Perhaps I am confused about which team is a contender

For one game. Then ice time vanished

trencan

SwedishPoster: Before Hasek came over to the NHL he was alreadyconsidered one of, if not the, most talented goalie of all time in europe so his early struggles in NA was probably a combo of adapting to a new country, smaller ice and opportunity. He was a regular for the czech NT since he was 17 and was easily seen as the best goalie in the world by hockey people with a euro perspective when he left for the NHL. He was certainly not a late bloomer who suddenly came into his own, this was a guy who was already a superstar and for some reason struggled his first few NHL years. When he had his 1.95 gaa season the reaction in this part of the world was more one of, yeah ofc he dominates, what took him so long.

Exactly, Hasan as 18 years old became youngest goalie in Czechoslovakia national team in history which really means something. He won 2 times league title in one the best league in Europe these times. I think Belfour was the first goalie in Chicago when Hasan was backup…

I still think you NA guys underestimate and ignore european leagues. I personally would prefer many young european players who were drafted to continue in development in european leagues, just stay and play against men. It would help in my opinion also to Jesse Puljujarva, but I understand they need to adapt to NA style and are closer to NHL (more on eyes) in junior leagues like WHL, OHL…

SwedishPoster

Wilde:
SwedishPoster,

Late replying here, but have you seen any of Dominik Bokk’s play this year?

He appears to have played 15 games at the men’s level from NHL.com, but from Swedish hockey articles I’m google translating(god help me) it looks like he’s playing in the J20 playoffs after 1 goal in 9 games with the SHL.

Not sure if you watch the J20’s, but if you do, what do you think of him?

Don’t watch much u20, usually just bits and pieces but I’ve seen Bokk in the SHL and some u20 highlights. He’s a quick kid with really good hands, capable of both finishing and setting up teammates. He’s been real impressive coming from a lower level and getting games in the SHL straight away. The plan was to ease him in with the junior team but he just came and was dominant off the bat. Hard to tell what his upside is due to the big step up in competition, how good will he be once fully settled, but he’s certainly a first rounder for me.

Wilde

SwedishPoster,

Late replying here, but have you seen any of Dominik Bokk’s play this year?

He appears to have played 15 games at the men’s level from NHL.com, but from Swedish hockey articles I’m google translating(god help me) it looks like he’s playing in the J20 playoffs after 1 goal in 9 games with the SHL.

Not sure if you watch the J20’s, but if you do, what do you think of him?

Professor Q

GMB3: Jordan Eberle went straight from the WHL. Was that a mistake?

I think what your saying is mostly a myth. I think most top 6 forwards, especially players drafted in the first round, spend little to no time in the AHL.

This team has shown time and time again that it has zero ability? Are you referring to the Oilers historically? Or this management group? I feel this management group has done decent with the D, as has the organization. Davidson, Petry, Nurse. Bear getting a cup of coffeee after starting in the A.

Eberle had significant time in the AHL, actually, all things considered (and contrasted with “straight to the NHL”).

SwedishPoster

VOR:
You all know the story of The Backup. Though maybe we forget the message at the heart of the story.

So there was this outstanding team with a horrible Achilles Heel. A backup goalie far worse than Al Montoya. He was drafted at the tail end of a mediocre draft. As our story starts he is ten years post draft. Two of those years were spent being a mediocre backup in the minors. Our story begins in his fourth year as a mediocre NHL backup.

A quarter of the season into the 1993-94 season this team lost its Hall of Fame starting goaltender for the season. Suddenly the team’s fate rested on finding a new starter. John Muckler the GM was working the phones desperately trying to find a starter while watching his journeyman backup flop around like a dead fish. By the middle of the second period of the first game the backup played as a starter Muckler put the phone down.

Over the next 58 games the backup posted a .930 SVP and a 1.95 goal against. By the end of that season the backup had a cool nickname. They called him The Dominator.

Yup before he became the best player in hockey Dominik Hasek was a truly mediocre backup more than 10 years post draft.

The message is simple. Goaltenders are voodoo.

Before Hasek came over to the NHL he was already considered one of, if not the, most talented goalie of all time in europe so his early struggles in NA was probably a combo of adapting to a new country, smaller ice and opportunity. He was a regular for the czech NT since he was 17 and was easily seen as the best goalie in the world by hockey people with a euro perspective when he left for the NHL. He was certainly not a late bloomer who suddenly came into his own, this was a guy who was already a superstar and for some reason struggled his first few NHL years. When he had his 1.95 gaa season the reaction in this part of the world was more one of, yeah ofc he dominates, what took him so long.

Gret99zky

Noticed:

My little cup of Tim’s has changed to a barking black dog.

Confused

Just reading NSH puts Tolvanen straight on the 1st and give him PP

Yet JP gets looch

Perhaps I am confused about which team is a contender

Bling

Wilde:
Here’s an undersized CHLer for ya:

Travis Konecny.

Late birthday, 68 in 60 with the 67’s.

Next year they sucked, but he put up 45 in 28 before going to the Sarnia Sting.

56 in 30.

Next year, NHL. Philly sucked.

He scored:

2.38 points per hour 5v5 with Couturier. 302 minutes.

1.20 with Schenn. 250.

Total on the season was 1.55 5v5 points per hour.

Those were his centres for any non-tiny sample size.

Now, onto this year. They put him with depth centres to start, moved him around.

106 minutes with Nolan Patrick, 1.13/60.

231 minutes with Filppula, 1.04/60.

Then he went onto the top line with Couturier and Giroux.

16 goals, 13 assists in 529 minutes.

3.28/60.

They smashed the Bergeron line today, and he scored this goal:

https://streamable.com/3ciw9

We have the weapons to float these kids on skill lines. We really do.

Picked up Konecky in my pool one I found out he was on the top line. He has been on fire for ~1/2 a season now.

Bling

Lowetide: This study is getting more and more narrow every time. We are looking for:

1. WHL forwards who
2. Played and flourished in the NHL at age 20
3. Are small

We have two names, Point and Eberle. How many small WHL forwards chosen at the back of the first round DIDN’T make the NHL at age 20? Because, you know, maybe the number is 5. If there were five small whl forwards taken in the back end of the draft over 10 years, and two of them made it, that’s 40 percent.

Also, why doesn’t Barzal count? 6’0 for a C is not that big, and he only scored 10 goals in his final junior campaign.

Wilde

Here’s an undersized CHLer for ya:

Travis Konecny.

Late birthday, 68 in 60 with the 67’s.

Next year they sucked, but he put up 45 in 28 before going to the Sarnia Sting.

56 in 30.

Next year, NHL. Philly sucked.

He scored:

2.38 points per hour 5v5 with Couturier. 302 minutes.

1.20 with Schenn. 250.

Total on the season was 1.55 5v5 points per hour.

Those were his centres for any non-tiny sample size.

Now, onto this year. They put him with depth centres to start, moved him around.

106 minutes with Nolan Patrick, 1.13/60.

231 minutes with Filppula, 1.04/60.

Then he went onto the top line with Couturier and Giroux.

16 goals, 13 assists in 529 minutes.

3.28/60.

They smashed the Bergeron line today, and he scored this goal:

https://streamable.com/3ciw9

We have the weapons to float these kids on skill lines. We really do.

Wilde

Georges:
Wilde,

“Brayden Point is another example. He went back to Moose Jaw in a similar fashion to the way Yamamoto would, then played 9 AHL games and was called up for life. I don’t think the last year he spent in the WHL actually did anything for the guy.”

I don’t get this either. Again, according to hockeydb, after his 9 games in the AHL, he went back to Moose Jaw the next season (15-16) and was on the TBL roster the following season (16-17), his draft+3 if I have that right. He wasn’t called up after his 9 AHL games in 14-15.

??

Sorry for the confusion friend, I was just getting ready to go out and rushed the post, you’re 100% correct.

Here’s where I was mistaken… I thought it was 9 games AHL 15-16 after the MJW season ended like the looks Safin is getting now, and then breaking camp the next year. Call up was never the right phrasing.

Point remains, however.

Actually, I’m not certain it at all changes the lesson.

Lowetide,

Flourishing in the NHL in general as criteria narrows almost every pool of hockey players into a very, very small study.

In general I think it’s a mistake to not attempt something simply because it hasn’t been done before. The argument against has to be stronger.

VOR

Scungilli Slushy: Thee was this skinny kid who kept getting elevated to play with older kids, and kept doing crazy scoring, and then became the greatest player who ever played hockey.

Wayne Gretzky on the downhill side of his career is the one who crowned Dominik Hasek the best player in hockey. He didn’t say the greatest ever just the best of that era. Thus, before Wayne Gretzky named him the best player in hockey Hasek was a mediocre NHL backup goalie.

Goalies are voodoo. The mediocre backup won 6 Vezina trophies and was the league’s most valuable player twice. And impressed the hell out of Wayne Gretzky.

Ryan

godot10: I guess Brayden Point is the 2nd example of a guy who did it.So only two in the last decade. Eberle and Point.Both are much better and consistent goal-scorers than Yamamoto.

It will be interesting to see if Sam Steel does it next year, although he is not exactly small…i.e. Nugent-Hopkins’s sized.

Hm. Brayden Point.

2 inches taller than Yamomoto and picked 79th ov with 36 g and 91 points in 72 games in his draft year.

And he’s a right shot centre.

Why can’t we have nice things?

Georges

Curtis Lazar
Sam Reinhart

?

Evander Kane
RNH

??

But, yeah, godot, it looks like you’re right.

Very few late first round forward picks make the league as regulars in their draft+1. And there aren’t many comparables for someone KY’s size making it as a regular at his age.

DeBrincat, Arvidsson…

Scungilli Slushy

VOR:
You all know the story of The Backup. Though maybe we forget the message at the heart of the story.

So there was this outstanding team with a horrible Achilles Heel. A backup goalie far worse than Al Montoya. He was drafted at the tail end of a mediocre draft. As our story starts he is ten years post draft. Two of those years were spent being a mediocre backup in the minors. Our story begins in his fourth year as a mediocre NHL backup.

A quarter of the season into the 1993-94 season this team lost its Hall of Fame starting goaltender for the season. Suddenly the team’s fate rested on finding a new starter. John Muckler the GM was working the phones desperately trying to find a starter while watching his journeyman backup flop around like a dead fish. By the middle of the second period of the first game the backup played as a starter Muckler put the phone down.

Over the next 58 games the backup posted a .930 SVP and a 1.95 goal against. By the end of that season the backup had a cool nickname. They called him The Dominator.

Yup before he became the best player in hockey Dominik Hasek was a truly mediocre backup more than 10 years post draft.

The message is simple. Goaltenders are voodoo.

Thee was this skinny kid who kept getting elevated to play with older kids, and kept doing crazy scoring, and then became the greatest player who ever played hockey.

wood99

If we get the 5/7 pick,do you try and trade it to the islanders for their 2 first round picks and do you think we would have to add.

godot10

Wilde: How do you divorce the the possibility that these WHLers were NHL readyduring the period they spent in the lower leagues from your theory here?

I think a lot of these guys didn’t actually need the lower league time, they just didn’t get the oppurtunity to prove otherwise.

For example Marshessault and Gourde were likely already ready after the first season or two they played pro, but they toiled for awhile and now the story is they took a long time to develop.

Brayden Point is another example. He went back to Moose Jaw in a similar fashion to the way Yamamoto would, then played 9 AHL games and was called up for life. I don’t think the last year he spent in the WHL actually did anything for the guy.

I guess Brayden Point is the 2nd example of a guy who did it. So only two in the last decade. Eberle and Point. Both are much better and consistent goal-scorers than Yamamoto.

It will be interesting to see if Sam Steel does it next year, although he is not exactly small…i.e. Nugent-Hopkins’s sized.

Georges

godot10: Getting a few games in after his CHL season finished in Regina doesn’t really count.We talking after junior eligibility has expired, Eberle didn’t see AHL time.The exception for small WHL forwards.

Eberle made it to the league in his draft+3, correct?

Let’s leave the small out of it because KY is really small, not much in terms of comparables.

Can I look for WHL players making it to the NHL in their draft+3 or before or is there more nuance I’m (clearly) missing?

Georges

Wilde,

“Brayden Point is another example. He went back to Moose Jaw in a similar fashion to the way Yamamoto would, then played 9 AHL games and was called up for life. I don’t think the last year he spent in the WHL actually did anything for the guy.”

I don’t get this either. Again, according to hockeydb, after his 9 games in the AHL, he went back to Moose Jaw the next season (15-16) and was on the TBL roster the following season (16-17), his draft+3 if I have that right. He wasn’t called up after his 9 AHL games in 14-15.

??

godot10

Georges: I’m not sure I understand. Eberle’s hockeydb page shows he played in the AHL and in the WHL in his draft+1 and his draft+2.

Getting a few games in after his CHL season finished in Regina doesn’t really count. We talking after junior eligibility has expired, Eberle didn’t see AHL time. The exception for small WHL forwards.

Georges

godot10: Name one small forward from the WHL in the last decade other than Eberle who has done it.

With Yamamoto, other than his draft year, and unlike Eberle, his goal-scoring is not particularly remarkable.So Yamamoto is yet another passer who will be passing mostly to forwards who are mostly incapable of scoring on the Oilers 3rd line.

I’m not sure I understand. Eberle’s hockeydb page shows he played in the AHL and in the WHL in his draft+1 and his draft+2.

Wilde

godot10: Name one small forward from the WHL in the last decade other than Eberle who has done it.

With Yamamoto, other than his draft year, and unlike Eberle, his goal-scoring is not particularly remarkable.So Yamamoto is yet another passer who will be passing mostly to forwards who are mostly incapable of scoring on the Oilers 3rd line.

How do you divorce the the possibility that these WHLers were NHL ready during the period they spent in the lower leagues from your theory here?

I think a lot of these guys didn’t actually need the lower league time, they just didn’t get the oppurtunity to prove otherwise.

For example Marshessault and Gourde were likely already ready after the first season or two they played pro, but they toiled for awhile and now the story is they took a long time to develop.

Brayden Point is another example. He went back to Moose Jaw in a similar fashion to the way Yamamoto would, then played 9 AHL games and was called up for life. I don’t think the last year he spent in the WHL actually did anything for the guy.

Pescador

godot10: Name one small forward from the WHL in the last decade other than Eberle who has done it.

With Yamamoto, other than his draft year, and unlike Eberle, his goal-scoring is not particularly remarkable.So Yamamoto is yet another passer who will be passing mostly to forwards who are mostly incapable of scoring on the Oilers 3rd line.

Thing is Eberle did spend time in the AHL albeit Lock out assisted

VOR

You all know the story of The Backup. Though maybe we forget the message at the heart of the story.

So there was this outstanding team with a horrible Achilles Heel. A backup goalie far worse than Al Montoya. He was drafted at the tail end of a mediocre draft. As our story starts he is ten years post draft. Two of those years were spent being a mediocre backup in the minors. Our story begins in his fourth year as a mediocre NHL backup.

A quarter of the season into the 1993-94 season this team lost its Hall of Fame starting goaltender for the season. Suddenly the team’s fate rested on finding a new starter. John Muckler the GM was working the phones desperately trying to find a starter while watching his journeyman backup flop around like a dead fish. By the middle of the second period of the first game the backup played as a starter Muckler put the phone down.

Over the next 58 games the backup posted a .930 SVP and a 1.95 goal against. By the end of that season the backup had a cool nickname. They called him The Dominator.

Yup before he became the best player in hockey Dominik Hasek was a truly mediocre backup more than 10 years post draft.

The message is simple. Goaltenders are voodoo.

Confused

Kucherov with nothing, definitely all over

godot10

leadfarmer:
Grubauer is showing this season why I was shocked he wasn’t picked in the expansion draft.

Marc-Andre Fleury and Nate Schmidt…that is why.

godot10

GMB3: Jordan Eberle went straight from the WHL. Was that a mistake?

I think what your saying is mostly a myth. I think most top 6 forwards, especially players drafted in the first round, spend little to no time in the AHL.

Name one small forward from the WHL in the last decade other than Eberle who has done it.

With Yamamoto, other than his draft year, and unlike Eberle, his goal-scoring is not particularly remarkable. So Yamamoto is yet another passer who will be passing mostly to forwards who are mostly incapable of scoring on the Oilers 3rd line.

leadfarmer

Grubauer is showing this season why I was shocked he wasn’t picked in the expansion draft.

leadfarmer

Man Schneider doesn’t even get the second of a back2back. How the mighty have fallen.

hunter1909

Lowetide: Guys who are skilled and spend time in the AHL, like Rob Schremp, often don’t make it at all.

Another Rob Schremp was let down by Oiler fans myth.

Schremp gets drafted by Lowe+MacT. Oilers haven’t even got a farm team, so Schremp goes to another team who’s coach has zero interest in his development; but he manages to still put up decent if not promising numbers… until fast forward until Schremp, some say out of sheer spite from MacT scores 3 points in 4 games even winning a 2nd star one night and MacT – with his trademark middle school shop schoolteacher persona sends Schremp back broken hearted etc, etc.

JimmyV1965

Pescador: The reluctance to sign veteran cover on the cheap is hard to understand,
However, those bargain NHLers are looking to sign with a potential winner.
I would not place the Oilers in that group,
plus our Pro scouts are part of the problem

We need to sign guys like Versteeg to provide cover for guys like Yammer.

JimmyV1965

GMB3: Jordan Eberle went straight from the WHL. Was that a mistake?

I think what your saying is mostly a myth. I think most top 6 forwards, especially players drafted in the first round, spend little to no time in the AHL.

This team has shown time and time again that it has zero ability? Are you referring to the Oilers historically? Or this management group? I feel this management group has done decent with the D, as has the organization. Davidson, Petry, Nurse. Bear getting a cup of coffeee after starting in the A.

I don’t know. I started going through the teams starting with in the Atlantic, and the vast majority of top six guys played in the AHL, KHL, or the NCAA. There’s a bunch of exceptions, but most of those are very high draft picks. There’s some later first round picks too, but not many. Certainly not the majority.

Woogie63

JimmyV1965: These situations are not similar beyond a superficial level.

Tampa came inches from making the playoffs without one of their best players. I’m sure their special teams were not a garbage fire like ours.

Carolina will find a GM no problem and a good one if they follow good hiring practices. But the guys who turned it down are in the middle of a season. These guys have many options. I’m not sure any GM with options is interested in a position where the owner clearly wants to be involved in a meaningful way. More so than any other team in the NHL I believe. And before someone counters with the OBC, it’s not the same situation.

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/hockey/lightning/How-Lightning-coach-Jon-Cooper-reinvented-himself_163500388

Pescador

JimmyV1965: This is the problem with the Oil. Too many kids get rushed because lack of a better option.

The reluctance to sign veteran cover on the cheap is hard to understand,
However, those bargain NHLers are looking to sign with a potential winner.
I would not place the Oilers in that group,
plus our Pro scouts are part of the problem

Pescador

godot10: Of the small skilled forwards coming out of the WHL in the last decade, only Eberle has played in the NHL immediately without a season in the AHL.A year for Yamamoto in the AHL is likely, and would not represent any failure or diminishment of his future potential.

Admiral in the AHL is the right thing to do,
I say less than 10% chance this happens,
We will know the answer before training camp is done

GMB3

JimmyV1965: I think this is mostly a myth. Very few players arrive in the NHL without spending time in the AHL, KHL, or some league with adults. Of course there are exceptions and the superstars. Certainly this team has proven time and time again that it has zero ability to judge which players should jump straight to the NHL. This team should err on the side of caution.

Jordan Eberle went straight from the WHL. Was that a mistake?

I think what your saying is mostly a myth. I think most top 6 forwards, especially players drafted in the first round, spend little to no time in the AHL.

This team has shown time and time again that it has zero ability? Are you referring to the Oilers historically? Or this management group? I feel this management group has done decent with the D, as has the organization. Davidson, Petry, Nurse. Bear getting a cup of coffeee after starting in the A.

JimmyV1965

Lowetide: He signed an ATO with Bakersfield. In many ways he’s a more compelling prospect than Colin Larkin. RD, he is 23, also from Division 3 NCAA.
http://www.ecgulls.com/sports/mice/2017-18/releases/20180318j3huzx

http://www.ecgulls.com/sports/mice/2017-18/releases/20180305px90vf

Day is an offensive defender who has a high skill level and also possesses some speed. The 6’1” right-shot D scored 38 points (15-23-38) in 26 games this past season.
http://thesportsdaily.com/the-oilers-rig/oilers-sign-colin-larkin-logan-day-to-atos/

https://proskilldevelopment.com/news/day-signs-ahl/

Thanks LT.

JimmyV1965

Pescador: Yup,
1 part skill
1 part lack of a better option

This is the problem with the Oil. Too many kids get rushed because lack of a better option.

JimmyV1965

GMB3: Most elite offensive talent doesn’t spend much of any time in the AHL in the salary cap world. If you can contribute offensively on your ELC, you’ll play.

I don’t understand. Should we not have a preseason? So if a 19 year old outplays a 22 year old he should still be sent down? I don’t understand that line of thinking. Sergachev is in the NHL as a 20 year old D, Tampa is pretty good.

LT continually states this. Offensively talented players tend to spend little to no time in the AHL and it’s been that way for years. The best players should play on the big club regardless of age

I think this is mostly a myth. Very few players arrive in the NHL without spending time in the AHL, KHL, or some league with adults. Of course there are exceptions and the superstars. Certainly this team has proven time and time again that it has zero ability to judge which players should jump straight to the NHL. This team should err on the side of caution.

godot10

Lowetide: Agree completely. If Yamamoto has exactly the same TC as a year ago, he’ll be on the roster. I don’t have any doubt about it. Guys who are skilled and spend time in the AHL, like Rob Schremp, often don’t make it at all. Yamamoto has a very good chance to make the team in the fall.

Of the small skilled forwards coming out of the WHL in the last decade, only Eberle has played in the NHL immediately without a season in the AHL. A year for Yamamoto in the AHL is likely, and would not represent any failure or diminishment of his future potential.

Scungilli Slushy

Pescador:
Scungilli Slushy,

That’s all well and good,
problem with young players is they hit a physical wall.takes a couple years to build up the stamina needed for 82 games.
That’s why JP has faded & so many before him

For sure. I think Yama should have less issues here as he’s not growing as much. He needs to fill out a much smaller frame, neither are likely getting much taller, less energy expended there than JP.

There is only so much a body can do at once. Yama should also be able to add whatever strength he can more quickly because of size, less mass and less potential for mass.

Correct me Vor if need be.

Pescador

Scungilli Slushy,

That’s all well and good,
problem with young players is they hit a physical wall.
takes a couple years to build up the stamina needed for 82 games.
That’s why JP has faded & so many before him