G82 2017-18: Canucks at Oilers

by Lowetide

We reach the final chapter of the Oilers 2017-18 season, a bitter disappointment after a very hopeful start. In the days to come, management will have to pick up the pieces and begin the process of fixing the holes where the rain comes in. The formula of 2016-17 (McDavid scores, Talbot stops, everyone else hang on) folded and with it the playoff chances of this team. It is now the challenge of management to close the gap between McDavid ON and McDavid OFF. It is surely Everest.

THE ATHLETIC!

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HOME PLATE, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in April 2016: 1-1-0, goal differential -1, two points
  • Oilers in April 2017: 1-1-0, goal differential -1, two points 
  • Oilers in April 2018: 1-1-0, goal differential -2, two points
  • April 9, 2016: Vancouver 4, Edmonton 3 (SO) (Source)
  • April 6, 2017: Edmonton 4, San Jose 2 (Source)

AFTER 81, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 31-43-7, goal differential -49 (69 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 46-26-9, goal differential +41 (101 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 35-40-6, goal differential -33 (76 points)
  • April 9, 2016: Vancouver 4, Edmonton 3 (SO) (Source)
  • April 9, 2017: Edmonton 5, Vancouver 2 (Source)

The 15-16 team finished with 70 points, last season’s team 103. This year’s model will finish anywhere from 76-78 and we’ll see if that’s enough to save jobs. I suspect we’ll see some movement in the coaching staff but that’s a guess and the most important roster work will go down in June.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL

  • On the road to: Minnesota (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Vegas, Vancouver (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected results: 1-2-0, two points in three games
  • Overall actual results: 1-1-0, two points in two games

CURRENT 2018-19 50-MAN

  • RFA (not on the list above): Nick Ellis, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Ben Betker, Drake Caggiula, Braden Christoffer, Ryan Strome, Kyle Platzer, Anton Slepyshev, Iiro Pakarinen, Patrick Russell. (11)
  • UFA (not on the list above): Laurent Brossoit, Mark Fayne, Yohann Auvitu, Keegan Lowe, Joey Laleggia, Dillon Simpson, Grayson Downing, Mike Cammalleri, Ty Rattie, Brian Ferlin. (10)
  • I believe this to be correct, let me know if something is missing.
  • Among RFA’s, locks to return are Darnell Nurse. I believe the Oilers will also sign Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula, Ryan Strome and Iiro Pakarinen. That’s five additional players, setting the 50-man at 34 men.
  • Among UFA’s, locks to return are Ty Rattie. I believe the Oilers will also sign Keegan Lowe and Mike Cammalleri. That gets us to 37 men.
  • I believe the priority is a big RH defender, that could be anyone from John Carlson to Tyson Barrie to Kris Letang to Matt Dumba. I don’t think this should be a priority, a healthy Klefbom would be a big help plus Sekera can play that position.
  • Wingers with scoring ability and forwards who can penalty kill are the main need, I would add a substantial backup ala Anders Nilsson.

Based on reports (Edmonton Prospect Watch, Vaughn Woodruff) Samorukov had an early ill-advised pinch and then settled in and played well. Tyler Benson had a dandy early chance (great save by the goalie) but was otherwise quiet. Josh Currie scored No. 20 on the year, Bakersfield lost 4-1 and would have to win out to make the second season.

HUMBOLDT BRONCOS

I wish there was something I could say. The cruelty of this story is everywhere, from the extreme youth to the number of people lost (14) in one prairie highway accident. Humboldt is about three hours from the place I spent most of my school years, an hour past Saskatoon. It’s about ten times the size of Maidstone but remains a small place. Great fishing, bird watching, a fabulous old train station last time I was there, everyone knows everyone else and they love their hockey team. Nicest people you want to meet. If you ever have your car break down on the highway, pray you’re near Humboldt.

Now that community will be known for a stunning tragedy. I’ve been getting dm’s and texts from people who knew some of the kids involved, and everyone is shattered. Just wrecked, today. The hockey community is spread far and wide, yet is very close. I know there are neighbours of mine who have connections to that bus and I further know no one slept worth a damn last night. Some tomorrow we’ll find out what happened, but in the end that’s all details and we are left to hug the stuffing out of the survivors and all families/billets/coaches/trainers/friends involved. We lost some of our kids last night, and it’s impossible to bear. I know everyone will want to pitch in, they’re going to need blood and there’s a gofundme set up online for these families.

We’re all sitting on that patch of highway today, head in hands and wondering what on earth went wrong, why this happened. I’m not on the air today and honestly it’s a relief. I have no idea what to say.

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Tesla's Hair

Pescador:
Numerical
Technological
I place different weight on each. And some people are lucky enough or as a result of their own h

Most people in this forum are a sweet mix of EQ and IQ.

That 100 percentile EQ dude: This dude narrative of the truth is rarely pure and never simple. He wins the relationships and loses the plot.

That 100 percentile IQ data analyst: This dude who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. He wins the battle and loses friends.

The only difference between the IQ data analysts and the EQ storytellers is that every data analyst has a past and every storyteller has a future.

Tesla's Hair

Jaxon: I would add Optimism and Enthusiasm and EQ as a combo winner for the IQ I enjoy working with and playing with.

I would add Optimism and Enthusiasm and EQ as a combo winner for the IQ I enjoy working with and playing with. ?

Tesla's Hair

Jaxon,

I would add Optimism and Enthusiasm and EQ as a combo winner for the IQ I enjoy working with and playing with. 🙂

russ99

LT, thanks again for giving us a soapbox to vent about the Oilers.

Hopefully next season is much much better.

Jaxon

Pescador:
NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

For me there are several different ways to measure intellect.
Book smarts
Common sense or street smarts
Social intelligence or identify-ability
Comedic
Numerical
Technological
I place different weight on each. And some people are lucky enough or as a result of their own hard work to possess multiple forms.
Kudos to you for fact based arguments posted in an easily discernible text.
All whilst walking the high road,
Respect

I would put one more on that list: creativity. And it would go near or at the top for me.

slopitch

Can’t complain about a win ever really. Still 15% for a top 3 pick and 8-10 range involves some luck.

I was cheering like hell for JP last night playing with Drai. He never got going and must have had like 8 giveaways. Too bad.

McDavid is a different level. What a treat.

This seasons record combined with the quality 97 put out should mean Chai and TMac are gone. We wait.

Pescador

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

For me there are several different ways to measure intellect.
Book smarts
Common sense or street smarts
Social intelligence or identify-ability
Comedic
Numerical
Technological
I place different weight on each. And some people are lucky enough or as a result of their own hard work to possess multiple forms.
Kudos to you for fact based arguments posted in an easily discernible text.
All whilst walking the high road,
Respect

JimmyV1965

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): I think Drai beats Pastrnak in every area except goal scoring. Pastrnak makes less than 7m per, and I think Drai deserves more than him. In the summer before the deal was done I thought 7.75m was fair–more than Tarasenko.

Absolutely. Agree he’s overpaid maybe $1 mill. But it’s the least of chias overpays.

JimmyV1965

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Back to this subject, my comment was not a criticism of Strome. I don’t mind him in our bottom 6 for the right dollars. If he blossoms, great, but don’t hope too much for it.

Bailey also was running with peak Tavares.

My apologies. You’re right. I’ll be very happy with 15 goals and 40 pts

JimmyV1965: Pastrnak is not a fair comparison either. It might be the best line in the league. You can’t tell me he’s not being zoomed by Bergeron andMarchand. Bet he has a few more PP pts as well.

I think Drai beats Pastrnak in every area except goal scoring. Pastrnak makes less than 7m per, and I think Drai deserves more than him. In the summer before the deal was done I thought 7.75m was fair–more than Tarasenko.

JimmyV1965

OmJo: Matthews and Eichel have higher Pts/Gp. And Tarasenko has 0 TOI with McDavid this season an has 3 less points (in 3 extra games).

If Draisaitl had top 6 wingers that would probably be different. But not the best comparisons.

How has Pastrnak done this season?

Pastrnak is not a fair comparison either. It might be the best line in the league. You can’t tell me he’s not being zoomed by Bergeron and Marchand. Bet he has a few more PP pts as well.

Jaxon

West:
Vegas
Anaheim
Nashville
Winnipeg

rickithebear,

Ricki, one more thing. I will stick to prose and personal narrative. I used math for work once upon a time but I got sick of that line of work. My life is much happier now. I choose not to sit and run spreadsheets on hockey as it is not my life’s passion, but I am grateful for people like you, Woodguy, G Money and others who do and share that with us.

So keep on being the facts guy. You say it doesn’t make friends but I like you plenty, even though I may be a knuckledragger.

rickithebear:
To the guy questioning the price for RFA years.

Look at the 5 year rfa contracts.
The goal and Ppg rates.
6 Million for 5 years.
Then look at the years beyond bought.
You get a rate increase per season add for PPG players in .07 PPG intervals.
Draisatl,s group is 750k per season.
6M + ( .75 + .75 + .75 ) = 8.25M

Prose and Personal Narritive makes people like you.

But truth based on facts does not make friends.

Be a little less Stu

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVA-Bx4rNc0

A little more Dennis

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UrgpZ0fUixs

Data, analysis, facts are OK.

Ricki,

Your writing is sometimes hard to follow, as is your train of thought. I know you think I am as dumb as a doorknob and like to insult my intelligence because I don’t always see things the way you do. I have never insulted you back. You may be smarter than me, but I would rather be stupid and respectful of others than be smart and full of myself.

I know you and your family have gone through a lot and so I always will have a lot of rope for you.

Now on the subject of the RFA years, you came up with a formula to add 750k per increment of .07 ppg, which is an interesting number that I don’t know where you pulled from, but let’s just go with it for now. That adds value for the UFA years only or RFA years? Because if you have 6m per for the 5 RFA years, what is left is 12.67m for each of the 3 UFA years. Too much.

Let’s give Draisaitl the Kane/Toews/Kopitar value for his UFA years: 10.5m per x 3. That means his RFA years are worth 7.3m. Remember he was arb eligible in those early years, too.

Hall, Tavares, Tarasenko, Barkov, Scheifele, Seguin, Pastrnak.

Tarasenko, Barkov, Pastrnak most recent comparable deals. All had one less RFA year left than Drai.

6m avg for 5 RFA years and 10.5m avg for 3 UFA years. Seems in line with your comparables listed for Drai: Kane, Toews, Kopitar etc.

7.7m per.

By the way your math adds up to 8.25m. Drai makes 8.5m .

Is the 0.8m per a back breaker? No. But did he get a rich contract that pays him above precedent? Yes.

Professor Q

OmJo: Yup!

I’ve waited a freaking decade to see Taylor Hall in a playoff game and the Devil’s in the f’ng details!

And like in Windsor, he really does well in red.

Sigh.

hunter1909

Hunter1909’s 2017-18 Emergency DeathMarch™ Update!

Add this new player To the pantheon of winners.

Jari

Congratulations Jari!

OmJo

hunter1909:
Season over! Now I can jump on the New Jersey bandwagon and prepare to cry.

Yup!

I’ve waited a freaking decade to see Taylor Hall in a playoff game and the Devil’s in the f’ng details!

Ribs

Professor Q:
Ribs,

I’ll go:

Vegas
San Jose
Nashville
Winnipeg

Damn, this is tough… I think I’d go… LA, Ahaheim, Nashville, Winnipeg.

JimmyV1965: I’m not saying Strome will ever put up big points, but I like him as a 3C. And the league is littered with guys who didn’t put it together until they were older. Josh Bailey has done very little in his career until this year when he scored 71 pts. And he’s 28.

Strome as a sleeper cell. I like it.

JimmyV1965: I’m not saying Strome will ever put up big points, but I like him as a 3C. And the league is littered with guys who didn’t put it together until they were older. Josh Bailey has done very little in his career until this year when he scored 71 pts. And he’s 28.

Back to this subject, my comment was not a criticism of Strome. I don’t mind him in our bottom 6 for the right dollars. If he blossoms, great, but don’t hope too much for it.

Bailey also was running with peak Tavares.

hunter1909

Season over! Now I can jump on the New Jersey bandwagon and prepare to cry.

Gerta Rauss

hunter1909: When can I buy myself that drink? I’ve still got your donation : )

The sooner the better my friend

You and your crack team have worked tirelessly this whole season, you’ve earned it

hunter1909

AshetonisGod:
Gret99zky,

As long as it’s not followed by new HC Paul Coffey and new GM MacT

I’m sorry to be the one who breaks this to you, but MacT cannot be a “new” GM, unless there is a parallel universe where the SC 2006 game 1 final is about to start.

No need to thank me. Always glad to help.

JimmyV1965

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): This, too. My point was that if you are expecting Strome to blossom a la Karlsson, don’t hold your breath.

I’m not saying Strome will ever put up big points, but I like him as a 3C. And the league is littered with guys who didn’t put it together until they were older. Josh Bailey has done very little in his career until this year when he scored 71 pts. And he’s 28.

Professor Q

Ribs,

I’ll go:

Vegas
San Jose
Nashville
Winnipeg

Ribs

Professor Q: Oates for breakfast for you, it seems.

That’s it! Next year it’s 77points into the pool! Hah, damn.

John Shannon

Verified account

@JSportsnet
6m6 minutes ago
More
West is set:
Vegas vs Los Angeles
Anaheim vs San Jose
Nashville vs Colorado
Winnipeg vs Minnesota

hunter1909

Gerta Rauss: Suspicious fire at the Hunter compound HQ..?

Standings Update posted a few moments ago.

When can I buy myself that drink? I’ve still got your donation : )

digger50

Ribs: I was hinting that Russell would score on himself in overtime in response to digger just before Russell deflects a puck away from the goal line… in overtime.

Yup, you called it …almost.

No matter

I thought the Oil toyed with them for half the game, but were not going to back off more than that. So we get a last win and let the Loto balls bounce as they may.

AshetonisGod

Gret99zky,

As long as it’s not followed by new HC Paul Coffey and new GM MacT

Tesla's Hair

Oilers win in OT
McDavid Art Ross
Twins cheered by Oilers Fans
Class Act of Organisation
Canada and All of Hockey United
That Life is Brief
Life is Beautiful
And each moment and relationship is precious
Thank You For Lowetide, Original Pouzar and Pouzar and
The rest of the colourfull commentators over the past year
I forgive and forget all the pain
And remember the gains and last emotional night
And I happily give our GM and Coach and Players +1

LT you made this Cheers
One of my favorite places to visit each day.
Felt like Cheers Online!

Cheers,

Dylan

Gret99zky

Tomorrow morning headline:

Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan have been relieved of their duties with the Edmonton Oilers organization.

*crosses fingers*

Professor Q

Ribs:
It’s not funny that I was going to enter 77pts into hunter’s pool at the start of the season but decided against it because I didn’t want to stir any bad juju.

Oates for breakfast for you, it seems.

hunter1909

Hunter1909 201716 Death Marches!! Semi-final official standings:

Emergency! Death March™

3 early players were spot on in their prediction of 78 points. Let’s congratulate

Van Isle Oil
What If
Remlap13

All who are declared winners of the Emergency Deathmarch™

REGULAR SEASON DEATHMARCH™

Mr Debakey
Cash-McMoney!
Romulus Apotheosis

Are all declared winners(and the least delusional) of all the Lowetide/Deathmarch community.

winners must contact us by email to receive prizes. Emergency Deathmarch! later players who haven’t been counted until the evidence is hidden please be patient. Your names will be be on the site within 30 days, and any retroactive winners are eligible for all prizes.

Jaxon

Oilers in 9th going into the Lottery. So they’ll be drafting one of 1,2,3,9,10,11 or 12.
Odds:

#1 5%
#2 5.3%
#3 5.7%
#9 48.8%
#10 30.7%
#11 4.3%
#12 0.1%

This is who I hope they pick depending on where they draft and who is likely available:
#1 Dahlin
#2 Svechnikov
#3 Svechnikov
#9 Veleno
#10 Veleno
#11 Merkley
#12 Merkley

Ribs

It’s not funny that I was going to enter 77pts into hunter’s pool at the start of the season but decided against it because I didn’t want to stir any bad juju.

striatic

I’m gonna miss those Piss Cutters. End of an era.

Ribs

Professor Q: Another missed Empty Net, I’m guessing?

My feed is lagging.

I was hinting that Russell would score on himself in overtime in response to digger just before Russell deflects a puck away from the goal line… in overtime.

Professor Q

Captain’s Log: Professor Q: I believe they would genetically be fairly similar, yes. But still have minor differences. I think Discovery/Nat Geo had a few documentaries about this.

“If a husband and wife have two boys, will they look like identical twins? No.

Same concept applies to your scenario”

I’m sensing some snark here, and I don’t know what I did to deserve it, but to put it scientifically, they would still have different mixtures of DNA from each partner, but as two sets of identical twins (highly similar DNA), they’d share a higher percentage of DNA (each twin coupled pair) than regular coupled pairs, and thus be closer genetically and have a higher percentage chance to look highly similar to their cousins.

However, they have no higher chance of having identical twins than regular parent sets. Though that’s always something to see when it occurs.

And nowadays you can even produce offspring from merging two male DNA sets (skin samples etc.), two female DNA sets (two eggs), or even with more than two DNA sets, like 2 female and one male. Three partners is the common number currently but could grow to more, like the 6-10 parents people have in The Expanse. Provides a higher chance of more stable genetics.

OmJo

Credit to every Oiler fan in that arena for staying and giving them a standing ovation like that.

one of my prouder moments of being an Oiler fan today.

Gerta Rauss

Does 78 points save Todd’s job..?

I don’t think it does

Bag of Pucks

Class acts.

Ribs

Sedin’s push the game to the limit and lose in their final outing. Fitting, I guess.

russ99

Jaxon,

Screw that, Daniel Sedin plagued us for almost two decades. Don’t want the villain to score his last goal to win in our barn.

Besides, doesn’t matter if we draft 7, 8 or 9, we’ll get a good player.

OmJo

It’s fitting, in a way.

Smyth ended his career against the Canucks.

The Sedins end their against the Oilers.

JonyPro

I liked how nice all 3 Oiler shootout goals were.

Gerta Rauss

lol….oh those Oilers…9th OV it is…

It doesn’t matter, we’re going to win one of the lotto spots

JonyPro

Jaxon,

That’s international games only I think.

OmJo

Well it’s too bad the Sedins didn’t score in OT.

Jaxon

Can the Sedins shoot again if they continue?

OmJo

Really?

Younger Oil

Professor Q,

Stopped a Sedin goal on the goaline