Peace frog

by Lowetide

At long last, what might be the most disappointing season in Oilers history is complete. A brilliant young franchise player extended his lead as the best player in the game but the team could not overcome flaws across the roster and will miss the playoffs. Let this be the last time 97 misses the playoffs. Amen.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

Jon’s piece on Todd McLellan is excellent, recommended reading. It’s also timely, as we head into the offseason with much work for the organization and many questions in need of answers. My item on Russia looks at the Oilers finally landing on a strategy in regard to that hockey nation.

ENDLESS SUMMER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in April 2016: 1-1-1, goal differential -1, three points
  • Oilers in April 2017: 2-1-0, goal differential +1, four points 
  • Oilers in April 2018: 2-1-0, goal differential -2, four points

AFTER 82, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 31-43-8, goal differential -49 (70 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 47-26-9, goal differential +44 (103 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 36-40-6, goal differential -33 (78 points)

It took 95 points to make the playoffs in the Western Confernce this season, the Oilers needed nine more wins. That’s a gap. In the coming days we’ll find out about management and coaching changes and the players will shuffle in June and early July. This is a bitter pill.

  • NaturalStatTrick
  • NHL.com
  • Cam Talbot made 36 of 38 stops, .947. I think the Oilers can count on him for next season but would have an improved backup on the roster for opening night.
  • Connor McDavid finishes the season 82, 41-67-108 (1.32). I projected him 80, 37-73-110 (1.375) in my RE post, that’s a hit. What’s more, my RE for 16-17 was 72, 33-54-87 (1.21) and he finished that season 82, 30-70-100 (1.22). Both hits. Connor McDavid’s 5×5/60 scoring number this season was 3.24, No. 1 in the NHL and an incredible total. We are witnessing greatness, the kind you tell your grandchildren about, in real time.
  • Leon Draisaitl finished with 2.32/60 scoring at 5×5, ranking No. 38 in the NHL among skaters with 500 or more minutes. He was injured early and people were down on the big man for much of the year, but there’s real quality in the season just passed. He went 78, 25-45-70 for the year, and at age 22, owns an enormous future. He must play center for the good of the team.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a very dynamic player on McDavid’s wing. He finished No. 81 among skaters in 5×5/scoring, 2.01 per 60. In 203 minutes with 97, RNH scored 2.95/60 at 5×5. His boxcars (62, 24-24-48) shine. I think the Oilers did it right, waiting until Leon established he could drive a line before moving RNH up, but the slotting is obvious now and the organization should proceed with this as the plan.
  • Ryan Strome finished 82, 13-21-34, 1.48 5×5 scoring per 60. I think his season was right in line with what should have been expected.
  • Milan Lucic finished 82, 10-24-34, one of the most disappointing seasons we’ve seen in Edmonton. The big man was 49, 9-21-30 before the All-Star break, only 33, 1-3-4 after the break. The organization can’t buy him out but there’s no way they can count on him for next season in a feature role.

I’ll have a complete review of the season and there are big plans for The Athletic this spring in terms of drilling down on individual performances. This blog will focus on summer, the draft and any breaking news we may receive in the coming days.

He’s a legit prospect and would rank inside the Oilers’ Top 10 upon signing. It looks like that will happen and soon. I wrote about, at the time of the trade, here.

OILERS 2018 DRAFT PICKS

Later this month, we’ll see where the first-round pick lands, but as of today, the draft picks break down as below.

  • First Round—No. 9 overall
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall
  • Fourth Round—No. 102 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. Montoya has now covered the condition. It is a fourth).
  • Fifth Round—No. 131 overall
  • Sixth Round—No. 162 overall
  • Seventh Round—No. 193 overall

My list (latest here) has seven top tier players, many believe Brady Tkachuk is in that range as well, meaning eight names in this draft who we can project as being impact prospects. On the other hand, it may mean the pick is spent on Ty Smith and I’m all about it.

SOME EARLY HEADLINES

  • Darnell Nurse will likely get a bridge deal. I don’t see an option.
  • It’s possible one of Milan Lucic, Kris Russell or Andrej Sekera are open to a trade. That would be an ideal solution, depending on the trade.
  • Peter Chiarelli is vulnerable, as is Todd McLellan. If something is going to happen, it will be soon.
  • The Rangers fired Alain Vigneault last night, no word on assistants and specifically goalie coach Benoit Allaire. He would have worked with Cam Talbot and the organization may want to get their No. 1 man in a comfortable situation. Something to watch.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi is a very talented young man and the Oilers should stick with him.
  • As I see it, the trade assets Edmonton currently boasts who are both valuable and come from a place of real depth, are Oscar Klefbom.
  • The first-round pick is surely in play.
  • My list of team needs are a scoring winger (James Neal), a two-way forward (Bob mentions Derek Ryan), a strong backup goalie option.
  • The Oilers list of team needs starts with right defense and an offensive option. Tyson Barrie, Matt Dumba, Kris Letang, in that range. The cost will be significant.

 

220 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
220 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Spooky Lynx

Conner McDavid 2017-2018 Season Highlights | Art Ross Trophy Winner

https://youtu.be/uTNJOvG-eM4

We’ve got a special player here in Edmonton. We’re lucky to be able to cheer for one hell of a hockey player every couple nights.

That page is worth a follow. “Connor McMatthews” puts some great highlight videos together.

Biggus Dickus

Pescador: Does anyone know Morse Code?
It’s kinda urgent

I learned morse code so I could communicate with my future wife about a coworker while they were in the room.

JimmyV1965

VOR:
I honestly wouldn’t know Terrell Owens if I met him on the street. I have no clue what he is like as a coach, a trainer, or training partner. He does work with other hockey players like Kris Letang and P.K. Subban though it seems more episodic than the intensive training he and Milan Lucic were doing.

But I do have to point out Lucic started with 26 points in his first 36 games. And looked by eye much faster. Then he went utterly in the tank. He says it was a confidence problem. Which has nothing to do with Terrell Owens.

Nor did it happen because the league suddenly got faster after game 37 this year. Nor did changes in the NHL that occurred between game 36 and game 37 cause him to go from being a career 13+% shooter of the puck to playing the last 46 games at under 3%. Horrible luck is a thing. The only solutions are patience, perseverance, and mental resilience.

Lucic says he thinks he needs to work on cardio. And if improved cardiovascular fitness is what he needs to feel confident on the ice then that is what he should work on, even if he has elite cardio capacity. Because he needs to do what helps his mental resilience.

What would work for me or you might not work for Milan. Every athlete is unique. We can’t diagnose or prescribe at a distance. Or criticize previous diagnoses or prescriptions.

In today’s interviews Milan Lucic sounds like a stand up guy taking responsibility for letting his teammates down. There is nothing in any published material that supports any sort of attack on his character or his intelligence. Connor McDavid says he is an awesome teammate.

At a distance we can’t say any of that is B.S. In fact, given the immense amount of media saying what a tremendous human being Milan Lucic is and how hard he has worked to overcome physical deformity and become a pro athlete that character and discipline are not even vaguely in play in Lucic’s struggles this season. Milan Lucic was right today when he said that he is too young for it to be age related. He also was right when he said he needs to adapt to the sudden changes in the game.

He needs to find his own way to accomplish this and regain his confidence.

I wish him the best in that endeavour.

Thank you for this VOR. It was a breath of fresh air. As fans I think we grossly underestimate the importance of confidence. In a sport where players make decisions in a fraction of a second, any hesitation caused by lack of confidence can be disastrous.

And this leads into my rant that we need to have a backup goalie who can right the ship if Talbot starts the season poorly. I’m loathe to put all the blame on a single player, but when the team starts second guessing their decisions because their mistakes lead to goals, or they don’t have confidence in the goalie, bad things happen all over the ice.

Pescador

who: I dunno.
I think Kharia looked pretty good on the left side in the last couple games. Better than JP did on the right side.

Agreed but consider these perspectives;
– JP is still just 19 & his Ceiling is top 6, he is ready now
– The Oilers need to be substantially better next season just to make the playoffs.
– If JJ is on your 3rd or 4th line then hopefully that means he was supplanted by a better player.
– JJ is a natural Center & JP is a natural RW.
My original line of thinking was to minimize the amount of offseason player procurement
because the Oilers have no Cap space to sign multiple free agents.
Any player you trade off the roster to fill a hole opens another

who

Pescador: XXX is the X factor here.Drai can push the river, he needs Oars not Anchors
I believe in JP,
A substantial veteran on LDs port side will go a long way

I dunno.
I think Kharia looked pretty good on the left side in the last couple games. Better than JP did on the right side.

Doc Savage

Younger Oil:
Oilers: 24 games, 3-21 without McDavid scoring a point.

Devils: 25 games, 9-16 without Hall scoring a point.

Flyers: 20 games, 8-12 without Giroux scoring a point.

McDavid was also a +20 on a team with a +/- of -29. I’m not sure what exactly that says, but I don’t believe any of the other Hart candidates have anything close to that differential. When Mario Lemiuex won the Hart in 87-88 and the Penguins missed the playoffs, Lemieux was +23 on a team that was +3. I’m not the biggest supporter of +/- as a stat, but in this situation it does seem to say something relative to the team.

Pescador

VOR:
I honestly wouldn’t know Terrell Owens if I met him on the street. I have no clue what he is like as a coach, a trainer, or training partner. He does work with other hockey players like Kris Letang and P.K. Subban though it seems more episodic than the intensive training he and Milan Lucic were doing.

But I do have to point out Lucic started with 26 points in his first 36 games. And looked by eye much faster. Then he went utterly in the tank. He says it was a confidence problem. Which has nothing to do with Terrell Owens.

Nor did it happen because the league suddenly got faster after game 37 this year. Nor did changes in the NHL that occurred between game 36 and game 37 cause him to go from being a career 13+% shooter of the puck to playing the last 46 games at under 3%. Horrible luck is a thing. The only solutions are patience, perseverance, and mental resilience.

Lucic says he thinks he needs to work on cardio. And if improved cardiovascular fitness is what he needs to feel confident on the ice then that is what he should work on, even if he has elite cardio capacity. Because he needs to do what helps his mental resilience.

What would work for me or you might not work for Milan. Every athlete is unique. We can’t diagnose or prescribe at a distance. Or criticize previous diagnoses or prescriptions.

In today’s interviews Milan Lucic sounds like a stand up guy taking responsibility for letting his teammates down. There is nothing in any published material that supports any sort of attack on his character or his intelligence. Connor McDavid says he is an awesome teammate.

At a distance we can’t say any of that is B.S. In fact, given the immense amount of media saying what a tremendous human being Milan Lucic is and how hard he has worked to overcome physical deformity and become a pro athlete that character and discipline are not even vaguely in play in Lucic’s struggles this season. Milan Lucic was right today when he said that he is too young for it to be age related. He also was right when he said he needs to adapt to the sudden changes in the game.

He needs to find his own way to accomplish this and regain his confidence.

I wish him the best in that endeavour.

Excellent post,
Changing his training will help,
So will reducing his minutes, QoC and resting during the PP.
Lowered expectations by coaches, media & fans will help as well.
He will be an Oiler next season so we might as well get behind him.

Pescador

Lowetide: Tell those Japanese soldiers to hang in there. Things might be coming around again!

Does anyone know Morse Code?
It’s kinda urgent

Pescador

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Assuming you do get a decent XXXX, and throw in Cammi-type for his role up and down, Aberg for his speed as your 13/14 F’s: you have elite first line, a fine bottom line, with players that have opportunity to play higher (and have a bit this year), and enough ingredients to bake a cake in the middle-6 with Drai, JP, Lucic, Strome, Yammer and XXX

XXX is the X factor here.
Drai can push the river, he needs Oars not Anchors
I believe in JP,
A substantial veteran on LDs port side will go a long way

VOR

I honestly wouldn’t know Terrell Owens if I met him on the street. I have no clue what he is like as a coach, a trainer, or training partner. He does work with other hockey players like Kris Letang and P.K. Subban though it seems more episodic than the intensive training he and Milan Lucic were doing.

But I do have to point out Lucic started with 26 points in his first 36 games. And looked by eye much faster. Then he went utterly in the tank. He says it was a confidence problem. Which has nothing to do with Terrell Owens.

Nor did it happen because the league suddenly got faster after game 37 this year. Nor did changes in the NHL that occurred between game 36 and game 37 cause him to go from being a career 13+% shooter of the puck to playing the last 46 games at under 3%. Horrible luck is a thing. The only solutions are patience, perseverance, and mental resilience.

Lucic says he thinks he needs to work on cardio. And if improved cardiovascular fitness is what he needs to feel confident on the ice then that is what he should work on, even if he has elite cardio capacity. Because he needs to do what helps his mental resilience.

What would work for me or you might not work for Milan. Every athlete is unique. We can’t diagnose or prescribe at a distance. Or criticize previous diagnoses or prescriptions.

In today’s interviews Milan Lucic sounds like a stand up guy taking responsibility for letting his teammates down. There is nothing in any published material that supports any sort of attack on his character or his intelligence. Connor McDavid says he is an awesome teammate.

At a distance we can’t say any of that is B.S. In fact, given the immense amount of media saying what a tremendous human being Milan Lucic is and how hard he has worked to overcome physical deformity and become a pro athlete that character and discipline are not even vaguely in play in Lucic’s struggles this season. Milan Lucic was right today when he said that he is too young for it to be age related. He also was right when he said he needs to adapt to the sudden changes in the game.

He needs to find his own way to accomplish this and regain his confidence.

I wish him the best in that endeavour.

Woogie63

Wayne Kenov: Chances both make the playoffs again next year?

If their goalies have .920 SA% pretty good

Wilde

ashley,

I have a hard time believing this team would be worse with Monahan

ashley

McDavid-Monahan-Hall with defensive pairings:

Klefbom-Benning
Sekera-Russell
Lowe-Bear

Does that win us many hockey games?

Woogie63

Woodguy v2.0: Well you’re off on a tangent now.

He’s a senior manager who was fired from his previous job for driving the organization into a hole and has proceeded to do the same here.

No one is defending his moves except a couple posters here and some Japanese soldiers who have been in the Pacific since 2011 and haven’t heard any fresh new.

Made me smile on a tough night

ashley

Lots of great stuff in this thread by WG.

Someday we will have better metrics for Dmen. Their value is not very well studied with boxcars and shot metrics.

Can you imagine this season or last season without Larsson? I know he wasn’t full value for Hall, but put that aside and imagine how frustrating the last three seasons would have been for McDavid. This team is so close. We just need a second pairing that gives more than it gives up and there will be much more success.

Also fortunate that we didn’t lose those last two games of the season against MIN and VAN as we all wished at the time as we would have drafted 6 and probably taken Monahan (according to predraft buzz) who would also have scored a bunch in losing efforts due to the lack of defensive depth sans Nurse.

Woodguy v2.0

Woogie63: How many industries have only one winner?

Well you’re off on a tangent now.

He’s a senior manager who was fired from his previous job for driving the organization into a hole and has proceeded to do the same here.

No one is defending his moves except a couple posters here and some Japanese soldiers who have been in the Pacific since 2011 and haven’t heard any fresh new.

Wilde

Wayne Kenov,

Someday we may dare to dream of being the Colorado Avalanche of the world.

Biggus Dickus

Woogie63: 2016/17

Avs

Landeskog-Duchene-xxx
Xxxx-McKinnon-Rantanen
Xxxx-xxxx-xxxxx
Xxx-Grigorenko-xxxx

Flyers

Xxxxx-Girioux- Vorachek
Xxx- Couturier-Simmons
Xxxx-xxxx-xxx
Xxx-Xxx-xxxx

Chances both make the playoffs again next year?

Woogie63

Wayne Kenov:
At one point I was on team trade the pick, but as the season wore on, I started to accept how far we are away. This isn’t just about being one top six winger away. We came into the season severely out manned, and are worse off today. When I look at the depth chart, I see
Nuge McDavid XXX
XXX Draisaitl XXX
XXX Strome JP
Slepyshev/Caggiula Khaira Aberg
Kassian

There are the obvious holes we talk about in the top six, but another Strome level player or two is needed for the third line. We thought this was going to be Jokinen, but it wasn’t. Mabe JP plays his way up a line, or Yammo establishes himself, but that just isn’t where we sit today. We only had 3 players over 35 points. For comparison, Tampa had 9, Boston 8, Toronto 10, Nashville 8, Winnipeg 9, Minnesota 8, Colorado 6, Washington 6, Pittsburgh 7, Philly 7, JERSEY 5!!!, Columbus 6, Vegas 9, Anaheim 7, San Jose 9, and LA 7 . And most other teams had several players in the range, we only had Lucic and Strome in spitting distance. We do have Connor, but a lot of teams have at least 1 ppg+ player so the difference at the top isn’t huge, certainly not enough to overcome the shitshow that is our top 6 wing. Shit, I just looked up Maroon, and realized my numbers don’t take into account pre+post trade stats, so it might be worse that I made it seem. Point holds though.

This team is legit 4 wingers away from competing. I don’t think they need to blow the doors off (that was the point of building up the middle), but they have to be >Strome. You are looking for guys in the Rust/Little range. If Nuge is in the top 6, you only need 3, plus a Stome or slightly shy LW for the 3Line.

BTW last years team had 7, but Ebs is gone, and I doubt Lucic gets back there. Klefbom might, which would give us 4. JP is only a 25pt pace player today, so lets be careful betting on him.

2016/17

Avs

Landeskog-Duchene-xxx
Xxxx-McKinnon-Rantanen
Xxxx-xxxx-xxxxx
Xxx-Grigorenko-xxxx

Flyers

Xxxxx-Girioux- Vorachek
Xxx- Couturier-Simmons
Xxxx-xxxx-xxx
Xxx-Xxx-xxxx

Kinger_Oil.redux

Pescador:
Nuge CMD Rattie
XXX Drai JP
Lucic Strome Yamamoto
Slep Khaira Kassian (should probably trade this player)
Can likely find the cap dollars to sign a decent XXX

– Assuming you do get a decent XXXX, and throw in Cammi-type for his role up and down, Aberg for his speed as your 13/14 F’s: you have elite first line, a fine bottom line, with players that have opportunity to play higher (and have a bit this year), and enough ingredients to bake a cake in the middle-6 with Drai, JP, Lucic, Strome, Yammer and XXX

Ari

Woodguy v2.0,

Great stuff on the RHD rundown.
Hopefully, they don’t pay a fortune for Dman points.

Confused

Woodguy v2.0,

I see you do not list Parayko, I know he did not have a great year, but have you gone off him this much?

Scungilli Slushy

GMB3: Does anyone else find training with a former wide receiver with unbelievable natural gifts as a bit of an odd choice for a bulky and slow hockey player?

We train a lot of junior and several pro hockey guys, and we train a lot of football players here. There is a marked difference in how we program for both. The demands of the sports aren’t similar.

Did Lucic move down to the states to train with TO? Or did he periodically go visit him and then follow his program back in wherever his off season home is? If he’s willing to move to train, he should look at heading to train with Roberts and co. It would be the right atmosphere, plenty of elite NHLers all train there, it could be the right move to get his career back on track.

I’m sure he’ll take training more seriously this off season. I think the Owens thing was more about the stories he could tell buddies. He’s got the cash to blow.

But it wasn’t helpful obviously.

As has been mentioned here and by him he needs to change his diet to be ready for the season, drop mass and try to regain some flexibility and probably work on his puck skills. No easy warm weather time for Luc this off season.

Scungilli Slushy

A couple of smart forward moves and a backup that can push Talbot makes things look a lot different. And health. The team isn’t as bad as the record.

And new coaches if better is out there.

Biggus Dickus

Pescador: Seeing as how the Oilers have no palatable assets to trade,
To go along with next to zero cap dollars to spend
Probably talking about going into next season as;
Nuge CMD Rattie
XXX Drai JP
Lucic Strome Yamamoto
Slep Khaira Kassian (should probably trade this player)
Can likely find the cap dollars to sign a decent XXX
With a couple of minor moves.
Likely looking at a St Louis type season for next or hopefully
Colorado

Oh, I know. There is no way to fix what ails us short term. I’m just trying to get a handle on where we are right now. That probably is what the fwds look like next year, with Aberg in the 2LW. That team will not be very good at hockey though.

I never finished my thought in the original post. Since we are so far away, we need to draft a player (probably dman), and start making moves to retool for 2-3 years down the road. Chia has killed us, and we now need to wait out his NMCs to ice a capable roster again.

Wilde

Kinger_Oil.redux: –

* Lowe one of the worst GM’s in modern hockey.Probably because he was allowed to stay year after year, and not getting fired.Maybe they view him different in Edmonton than elsewhere?

You’ve steadily brought up this ‘in Edmonton’ thing, I’ll address it:

Google ‘Lowe must go’.

Lowe the executive is absolutely not looked upon fondly in Edmonton. That’s not why people are often offside with your takes on him; it’s that they’re hyperbolic and lack nuance

Woodguy v2.0,

Trouble with this relt GF stuff is that it’s not just 3rd pairing guys that game the results to a degree.

We’re both familiar with the problem that shouldn’t be: Top-heavy teams that have positive goalshare top units, then their bottom 6 gives it all back.

These teams give a low baseline GF% to contrast against to their D pairings who play with their top lines. Examples are Gio/Hamilton playing 2/3rds of their icetime with Backlund or Monahan. Klingberg with Seguin and Faksa.

They should be credited with their contributions to the GF% when they’re on the ice, of course. But stuff like the 4th line being caved because a HC thinks they’re good for 1st comp DZFO’s resulting in a blackhole goalshare can really pull the Rel number the top guys are competing against down.

I know you’re aware of this, but I thought I’d expand on the ‘context’ part.

Confused

Pescador,

Been with the Sabres, not playing much, will be a UFA.

Sabres have lots signed, so unlikely.

Been suggested to me, he is a decent bet as a late developer.

Doug McLachlan

Confused:
Anyone got any thoughts on Casey Nelson as a zero cost RHD option?

Not sure what you might see in him. By contrast I wonder if another UFA RHD, Ryan Sproul, is still worth looking into?

Kinger_Oil.redux

Woodguy v2.0: I’m saying “but he has a Cup” is a thin defence.

He also won the Cup 7 years ago.

That’s a long time.

Not many industries where you can rest on your results from 7 years ago.

– I thought you were suggesting that the doffer mcd between lowe and chia was the goalie

– we know that the hotest starts goalie wins the cup basically

– one team wins the cup a year. Chia has been the gm of many good hockey teams. Lowe is generally considered one of the worst gms in modern hockey.

– I know you were trying to say something but not sure what it was

– surely not that chia = Lowe save a hot goalie one cup run?

– Lowe and mact give advice to chia. They should not be in hockey at their level. Good management surrounds themselves with good people. I don’t see good people surrounding chia. Gretzkys brother is by all accounts solid. Everyone else on management was there before chia

– this organization needs more good hockey people

Pescador

Wayne Kenov:
At one point I was on team trade the pick, but as the season wore on, I started to accept how far we are away. This isn’t just about being one top six winger away. We came into the season severely out manned, and are worse off today. When I look at the depth chart, I see
Nuge McDavid XXX
XXX Draisaitl XXX
XXX Strome JP
Slepyshev/Caggiula Khaira Aberg
Kassian

There are the obvious holes we talk about in the top six, but another Strome level player or two is needed for the third line. We thought this was going to be Jokinen, but it wasn’t. Mabe JP plays his way up a line, or Yammo establishes himself, but that just isn’t where we sit today. We only had 3 players over 35 points. For comparison, Tampa had 9, Boston 8, Toronto 10, Nashville 8, Winnipeg 9, Minnesota 8, Colorado 6, Washington 6, Pittsburgh 7, Philly 7, JERSEY 4!!!, Columbus 6, Vegas 9, Anaheim 7, San Jose 9, and LA 7 . And most other teams had several players in the range, we only had Lucic and Strome in spitting distance. We do have Connor, but a lot of teams have at least 1 ppg+ player so the difference at the top isn’t huge, certainly not enough to overcome the shitshow that is our top 6 wing. Shit, I just looked up Maroon, and realized my numbers don’t take into account pre+post trade stats, so it might be worse that I made it seem. Point holds though.

This team is legit 4 wingers away from competing. I don’t think they need to blow the doors off (that was the point of building up the middle), but they have to be >Strome. You are looking for guys in the Rust/Little range. If Nuge is in the top 6, you only need 3, plus a Stome or slightly shy LW for the 3Line.

Seeing as how the Oilers have no palatable assets to trade,
To go along with next to zero cap dollars to spend
Probably talking about going into next season as;
Nuge CMD Rattie
XXX Drai JP
Lucic Strome Yamamoto
Slep Khaira Kassian (should probably trade this player)
Can likely find the cap dollars to sign a decent XXX
With a couple of minor moves.
Likely looking at a St Louis type season for next or hopefully
Colorado

Pescador

Confused:
Anyone got any thoughts on Casey Nelson as a zero cost RHD option?

Never heard of her

Biggus Dickus

At one point I was on team trade the pick, but as the season wore on, I started to accept how far we are away. This isn’t just about being one top six winger away. We came into the season severely out manned, and are worse off today. When I look at the depth chart, I see
Nuge McDavid XXX
XXX Draisaitl XXX
XXX Strome JP
Slepyshev/Caggiula Khaira Aberg
Kassian

There are the obvious holes we talk about in the top six, but another Strome level player or two is needed for the third line. We thought this was going to be Jokinen, but it wasn’t. Mabe JP plays his way up a line, or Yammo establishes himself, but that just isn’t where we sit today. We only had 3 players over 35 points. For comparison, Tampa had 9, Boston 8, Toronto 10, Nashville 8, Winnipeg 9, Minnesota 8, Colorado 6, Washington 6, Pittsburgh 7, Philly 7, JERSEY 5!!!, Columbus 6, Vegas 9, Anaheim 7, San Jose 9, and LA 7 . And most other teams had several players in the range, we only had Lucic and Strome in spitting distance. We do have Connor, but a lot of teams have at least 1 ppg+ player so the difference at the top isn’t huge, certainly not enough to overcome the shitshow that is our top 6 wing. Shit, I just looked up Maroon, and realized my numbers don’t take into account pre+post trade stats, so it might be worse that I made it seem. Point holds though.

This team is legit 4 wingers away from competing. I don’t think they need to blow the doors off (that was the point of building up the middle), but they have to be >Strome. You are looking for guys in the Rust/Little range. If Nuge is in the top 6, you only need 3, plus a Stome or slightly shy LW for the 3Line.

BTW last years team had 7, but Ebs is gone, and I doubt Lucic gets back there. Klefbom might, which would give us 4. JP is only a 25pt pace player today, so lets be careful betting on him.

Woogie63

Woodguy v2.0: I’m saying “but he has a Cup” is a thin defence.

He also won the Cup 7 years ago.

That’s a long time.

Not many industries where you can rest on your results from 7 years ago.

How many industries have only one winner?

Confused

Watch the Condors highlights some nice goals

StixMalone

Is it a good idea for Sekera to go to the Worlds?….

Woodguy v2.0

Woogie63: Current Managers who won the Stanley Cup as a GM

Bowman
Holland
Shero
Rutherford
Lamoriello
Chiarelli

Is another perspective

Current list of GM’s who won a Cup with their current team:

Bowman – 3 years ago
Holland – 10 years ago
Rutherford – last year and year before

Is another perspective.

Also,

DET re-signing Holland made DET twitter go insane.

He’s as bad as Chiarelli for long immovable contracts to none core players

Woodguy v2.0

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Your saying that Chia had a goalie that was hot when he won the Cup.It’s true that the losing our goalie hurt on our cup run

– But you can’t compare the two GM’s, based on their track record though.Not even close IMO.

– Lowe was not a good GM, save the one year he was golden, and that team with Pronger was amazing.Chia went to the Cup twice, he built good teams.Lowe made the playoffs what 4 times in 13 years?He was just awful: Comrie, Big Sexy, Penner Vanek, Schremp, Plante, Nash, Nimikami, Miknov, MAP,: dude had no clue.

* Lowe one of the worst GM’s in modern hockey.Probably because he was allowed to stay year after year, and not getting fired.Maybe they view him different in Edmonton than elsewhere?

I’m saying “but he has a Cup” is a thin defence.

He also won the Cup 7 years ago.

That’s a long time.

Not many industries where you can rest on your results from 7 years ago.

Confused:
Apparently, the Condors are still in the hunt after a win today. Anyone understand this league?

San Diego, in 3rd place, has 3 games left vs first place Tucson. If they lose all 3 in regulation their points percentage will be .559

If Bakersfield wins out they can technically catch them. But if SD gets so much as 1 point, they are in, BAK are out.

Confused

Apparently, the Condors are still in the hunt after a win today. Anyone understand this league?

Confused

Anyone got any thoughts on Casey Nelson as a zero cost RHD option?

Woogie63

Woodguy v2.0: He won one more game in the SCF than Lowe did, and he did it with Tim Thomas putting up a .944 while Lowe’s started got knocked out in game 1.

Perspective.

Current Managers who won the Stanley Cup as a GM

Bowman
Holland
Shero
Rutherford
Lamoriello
Chiarelli

Is another perspective

Lowetide:
Edmonton Oilers

Verified account

@EdmontonOilers
Following Following @EdmontonOilers
More
The #Oilers have signed Cooper Marody to a three-year ELC. The 21-year-old forward, whose rights were acquired from Philadelphia on March 21, led @umichhockey with 51 points (16 goals, 35 assists) in 40 games this season.

Good news. I think most people thought there was no way the Oilers would do that trade without being sure they could sign him, but there were a few who thought management just might screw that up, too.

Good to see that is not the case.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Woodguy v2.0: He won one more game in the SCF than Lowe did, and he did it with Tim Thomas putting up a .944 while Lowe’s started got knocked out in game 1.

Perspective.

– Your saying that Chia had a goalie that was hot when he won the Cup. It’s true that the losing our goalie hurt on our cup run

– But you can’t compare the two GM’s, based on their track record though. Not even close IMO.

– Lowe was not a good GM, save the one year he was golden, and that team with Pronger was amazing. Chia went to the Cup twice, he built good teams. Lowe made the playoffs what 4 times in 13 years? He was just awful: Comrie, Big Sexy, Penner Vanek, Schremp, Plante, Nash, Nimikami, Miknov, MAP, : dude had no clue.

* Lowe one of the worst GM’s in modern hockey. Probably because he was allowed to stay year after year, and not getting fired. Maybe they view him different in Edmonton than elsewhere?

OmJo: That’s terrifying.

So if McDavid, heaven forbid, is injured next year and is out for the year the Oilers would go 10-72?!

Woodguy v2.0

frjohnk: He is no Fistric.
Fistric had a chastity belt on the Rickibox.

*strong Weiser clapping*

Woodguy v2.0

Woogie63: He did win a Stanley Cup, I hear that is a thing?

He won one more game in the SCF than Lowe did, and he did it with Tim Thomas putting up a .944 while Lowe’s started got knocked out in game 1.

Perspective.

Mustard Tiger

frjohnk,

Made me giggle

Woodguy v2.0

I had some time to write stuff today so I hope no one is too put off by my posting volume.

Here’s more (hehe)

Here’s every RHD who’s top 4 from my post above with notes on each player:

Player RelT GF%
JOHN.KLINGBERG 11.2
-Phenomenal player. Gets a boost here from being the best on a poor Dcorps over the past 2 years. Seriously underrated.
-Value on both side of the puck too (which means he team mates score more with him and get scored on less with him as well)

JOSH.MANSON 8.9
-Plays with Lindholm who might be the best Dman in the NHL. Good player but no idea how good away from Lindholm

DOUGIE.HAMILTON 8.7
-Like Manson, his partner Gio kills the world at this metric. He’s mostly played with Gio and Chara for his career (nice work if you can get it), but has been good away from them as well.

BRANDON.MONTOUR 8.6
-Rookie in a small sample with Fowler mostly. Killer 300 minutes last year on 3rd pair and started this year on 3rd pair, but mostly played 2nd with Fowler. Value comes on both sides of the puck.

JAKE.DOTCHIN 7.5
-Good rookie year in 3rd pair last year, playing mostly with Hedman this year.
-Have no clue what he is yet, but he can play with Hedman and not drag him down, which frees up Stralman to anchor the 2nd pair

CHRIS.TANEV 7.2 **
-Very good Dman on bad team. Value was mostly defensive last year and mostly offensive this year. Good shut down Dman historically.
-Exactly what EDM needs on the 2nd pair imo.

DREW.DOUGHTY 6.5
-Playing on a good team drops his ranking via this measure a bit. One of the best.

MATT.DUMBA 6.1
-Much better player than I thought he’d be two years ago. All of his extra value is offensive and is one of few Dmen who can actually drive SV%.
-Crazy offensive talent 5v5.

BRETT.PESCE 6.1
-Played career with Slavin so no sure how much each player drives that bus. Most of the value is on the offensive side of the puck. Very good young Dman

RADKO.GUDAS 4.9 **
-Radko Badass is a favorite of mine. I like tough hockey and he plays tougher than most.
Had a great year last year +11.65 RelTGF% and was -2.65 RelTGF% this year.
-Not sure if its a buy low moment or if previous results were not sustainable. Has a history of being the goods, but playing less under Hakstol than before.
-Had poor results mostly playing 3rd pair with Manning this year. Not sure what to make of it.

RYAN.ELLIS 4.8
-I’ve loved him for years and wanted him to be an Oiler when he was still 3rd pair on NSH.
-Phenomenal result considering the depth of NSH’s Dcorps. Complete defender.

BRENT.BURNS 4.0
-All offense, but had a ton of it last year.
-A career GF% under 50% away from Thornton. No shit.
– +16.3 RelTGF% last year and -8.82 this year. Ouch. That contract is a killer as he’s never been a great defender.

SHEA.WEBER 3.9
-still a good shut down Dman. Played hurt all year so this year’s results are meh.

ADAM.LARSSON 3.7
-under rated by everyone and tied to Hall forever and that’s not his fault.
-1st pairing Dman but its best if he’s not the best Dman on the pair

ALEX.PETROVIC 3.7 **
-a solid +3.22% last year and another +4.24% this year.
-Last year FLA spread the QoC almost equally among all Dmen so it was like everyone was a 2nd pair, not sure about this year
-a poster in this thread said he’s slow and can’t pass. Not sure about that. The results are well above average.

DAVID.SAVARD 3.6
-Fell off significantly this year
– +10.18% last year on a PDO heater and -2.51 this year
-I know he’s slower and can’t pass too well. Pass

ANTON.STRALMAN 3.6
-Been a favorite since’s Tyler’s piece on his value in 2013.
-Played a lot with Hedman last year, less this year. +3.05 last year, +3.17 this year. All on the offensive side of the puck
-He’s what we hoped Petry would be

ALEX.PIETRANGELO 3.6
-Good results on a decent team. Bouwmeester has been a drag on his results for years.
-If he had good partner he’d be in Norris conversation every year

JOHNNY.BOYCHUK 3.1
-Contract is large and long and he’s 34
-strong +7.45 last year and -0.45 in an injury riddled season this year. Last year he and Leddy were very good

DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 2.8
-believe it or not most of his value is on the defensive side of the puck. Everyone gets less goals against with him and he plays the toughs
-had variable partners like Chariot too with Entrom fading.
-Strong 1st pair Dman

BEN.LOVEJOY 2.8
-He’s done.
-Played mostly 3rds this year and might not play next year

MATT.NISKANEN 2.7
-Injury riddled season
-One of the best RHD in the NHL

BRENT.SEABROOK 2.4
-Was really surprised by his result
-Keith had a tough year and that obscured things
-Contract goes forever though

ERIK.KARLSSON 1.8
-When I first started looking into this stuff I expected Karlsson where Klingberg is as he’s a great player on a poor team.
-Had a great +7.15% last year and a -2.53 this year. I guess losing half you ankle will do that to a guy. 2 years previous to that were +3.09 and +1.85. Not nearly what I was expecting.
-He creates a lot, but man he gives up a ton too.
-Big gamble moving forward. Is he the same as he was?
-I wouldn’t trade for him, value isn’t there

MARK.PYSYK 1.7 **
-I’ve liked him since BUF. Great +5.12 last year. Tougher QoC this year and a -2.0 giving up a lot defensively.
-Playing mostly with Matheson.

JASON.DEMERS 1.4 **
-Strong year in ARI with a +4.21 after a -2.21 in FLA last year.
-Mostly with OEL so OEL is going to zoom some of that, but he zoomed OEL too as OEL was 37.8% GF away from Demers this year in 452 minutes and was 49.4% with Demers.
-ARI went 17-8-3 once all their Dmen and goalie got healthy to finish the season
-Good 2nd pair Dman and would have fit perfectly in EDM

RASMUS.RISTOLAINEN 1.3
-Its really tough to know what he is. Thrust into 1st pair role before he was ready and played with garbage partners for the most part.
-Was +0.41 last year and finally got an “ok” partner this year in Scandella and put up a +1.99, so if he ever gets a partner who is 1st pair quality he should be good.
-I’d take a chance on him

TYSON.BARRIE 1.2
-Went into detail on Barrie earlier in the thread

COLIN.MILLER 0.5 **
-A number of us called on Peter to get him from VGK. Nope.
– +6.14 last year when we all went gaga, but a -2.96 this year.
-worse partner this year along with Schmidt rocking the first pair and Theodore carrying the 2nd pair made the Rel part much tougher

P.K..SUBBAN 0.5
-A -2.85 last year hides a nice +2.85 this year.
-Played mostly with Emelin this year. He has a 54.7% GF with Emelin and 63.3% (!!) without. Looks like Laviolette spread his talent to all 3 pairs to not have a softer pairing. It worked.
-Most of his value is on the offensive side of puck

JACOB.TROUBA 0.3
-Injury history like Klefbom. 55gp this year, 65 last year
-put up a -0.32 last year and a 0.86 this year.
-Played mostly with Morrisey this year and he’s the goods.
-Deeper Dcorps so tougher to put up good Rel numbers
-If he’s healthy next year I bet he beats 0.86
-His value is offensive as well, leaky on GA so if he tightens that up he’ll be very good

Gret99zky

Wilde,

Professor Q,

Fair.