Once in a Lifetime

by Lowetide

Based on the early verbal, we’re about to spend the week listening to talk of ‘raised expectations last fall’ and ‘we’ve learned our lesson’ from the good ship Oiler. That’s fine, I do think people giving their perspective on things has value and should be heard.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

Based on my reading of the tea leaves, it looks like the general manager, coach and some key assistants will stay and the turnover will happen in the “Steve Smith/Charlie Huddy” portion of the coaching staff. The negotiations going on re: who stays among the assistants could mean the head coach walks. That’s my guess this morning. Good news for all involved that we’ve heard nothing yet.

The dealing with raised expectations verbal misses a few home truths, and that’s a fact. If you’ve read this blog, you know I believe the Oilers treat young talent as a disposable item, a renewable resource. This year’s model didn’t work? Try the new, improved version available in the top 10 at this year’s draft! All the well selling a ‘five-year plan’ that lies just beyond the next hill.

The Oilers have had great talent over the years, in fact much of it will be on display in this year’s playoffs. Seriously. Check it out. Talent has never been the problem. Finding a way to allow that young talent to flourish is the issue. Current example: Jesse Puljujarvi.

The 2010 Top 20 prospects

  • Lowetide blog: This is the strongest group of Oiler prospects I can recall. The 79-81 Oilers top 20 would have been better but after that this group must be the best. Potential and upside fall under the “If Wishes were Horses” category and we must know that some of these young men will falter. I think Oiler fans deserve good news by the tonne at this point in franchise history, so this list celebrates the future whatever it may be for the Copper and Blue.

That’s a very strong list. Taylor Hall might win the Hart Trophy this season, Jordan Eberle is a perennial 25-goal man on the other wing. Jeff Petry is a quality NHL defender and has been for years now and Devan Dubnyk has been a successful starter for a hockey generation. There’s also a late kicker group that includes Brandon Davidson, Tyler Pitlick and Chris VandeVelde.

My argument about the Oilers is personified in Teemu Hartikainen. The Oilers got rid of him because Jesse Joensuu was the answer but I’m convinced the Oilers had the better player. Edmonton is tougher on their own prospects than they are on other team’s castoffs. It has always been thus. Irritating.

THE 2018 TOP 20 PROSPECTS

There is no Taylor Hall here, but Jesse Puljujarvi could end up being a 30-goal winger with two-way ability. Insane value. Jujhar Khaira took a little time (lesson there) but looks like he may have a career (possibly on LW). Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson start their pro careers in the fall and there’s plenty of opportunity to advance.

Ethan Bear played 18 NHL games as a rookie pro, ahead of schedule by any measure. He looked like a rookie but you can see his intelligence and passing ability. There may be a fine future there. There are eight defenders on this list. Four goalies. I expect the Oilers would prefer to draft a forward in the first round.

NHL DRAFT LOTTERY

Oilers are currently No. 9, they could draft in several spots in the first round. The well named Tankathon suggests Edmonton’s chances are:

  • No. 1 overall: 5 percent
  • No. 2 overall: 5 percent
  • No. 3 overall: 5 percent
  • No. 9 overall: 48.8 percent
  • No. 10 overall: 30.7 percent
  • No. 11 overall: 4.3 percent
  • No. 12 overall: 0.1 percent

In the words of the great Johnny Mathis, chances are Edmonton picks No. 9 or No. 10. I think Ty Smith comes into view now, maybe Emil Bouchard or that Merkley fellow. Still think Edmonton would like a forward and wonder if they have someone in mind we haven’t discussed. My Top 100 ranking is here.

50-MAN (LONG FORM)

  1. G Cam Talbot. Signed for one more season, he had a .920 save percentage during March/April (final 17 games). Suspect the Oilers will bring him back as No. 1, believe it’s a solid bet.
  2. G Al Montoya. Signed for next season, he’s an established goalie but the Oilers should upgrade in this area. Montoya isn’t a goalie you can run with for two weeks.
  3. G Shane Starrett. He’s signed and that’s a big advantage. SP fell year over year from .918 to .899 in Bakersfield, that’s a down arrow.
  4. G Dylan Wells. Turns pro this fall. Three year save percentages in Peterborough (.871, .916 and .896) suggests Wells may begin his pro career in the ECHL.
  5. LD Oscar Klefbom. Went 66, 5-16-21 in a season made difficult due to injury. His surgery went well, although trading the young blue (if that was the plan) may be more difficult because of the medical news.
  6. RD Adam Larsson. He went 63, 4-9-13 in a difficult year for him, played well and had solid results while playing tough minutes.
  7. LD Kris Russell. He delivered 78, 4-17-21 and continues to lose the possession battle (it was close though, Fenwick 49.48).
  8. LD Andrej Sekera. He went 36, 0-8-8 but the final games were the only contests where he resembled the Sekera of last season. He was shutdown for the season’s final games but is apparently heading to the WHC’s.
  9. RD Ethan Bear. In the NHL (18, 1-3-4) and AHL (34, 6-10-16) he combined the errors of youth with signs of what may come. Smart, great passer, he finds attractive options while passing on low risk items. Very encouraging season.
  10. LD Caleb Jones. Inconsistent rookie seasons in pro hockey are not unusual and it remains clear Jones has all of the required elements. He just needs to fly more sorties. He went 55, 2-14-16 this season in Bakersfield, settling down after a wobbly first 15 games. He and Bear separated this season in career trajectory, this is a good time to remind prospects don’t develop in a straight line. There’s a player here.
  11. RD Ryan Mantha. A concerning eye injury ended his season (41, 3-7-10) and we’re not really sure where he stands. Mantha showed well when he played, recovery is the next important step in his career.
  12. LD Ryan Stanton. 46gp, 2-6-8 in Bakersfield he didn’t play in Edmonton, mostly due to an injury that put him behind in training camp. He might be more prominent next season.
  13. RD Eric Gryba. He was 21, 0-2-2 in Edmonton before heading back to Bakersfield. Foot speed got him, he could still defend on his final day in the NHL. The Don Awrey’s are leaving.
  14. LD William Lagesson. A strong SHL season and playoff may have him poised for a jump aross the water. He was 49, 1-12-13 during the season, a dozen SHL assists is a handsome total. He is best known for good wheels and excellent coverage.
  15. LD Dmitri Samorukov. Slide rule. Strong OHL season showing fine speed and defensive acumen, plus some offensive flair. Impressed the hell out of everyone in a brief audition with Bakersfield at the end of the year.
  16. LC Connor McDavid. Impossibly brilliant hockey player, McDavid once again won the scoring championship (82, 41-67-108) and has clearly established himself at the top of the game. A dream player for any manager or coach.
  17. LC Leon Draisaitl. He struggled with injury and inconsistency all year, but still managed to post 78, 25-45-70. The organization needs to find him two wingers who can complement his considerable gifts. I believe Jesse Puljujarvi may be one.
  18. LC Brad Malone. He was 56, 13-20-33 in the AHL and 7, 0-0-0 with Edmonton this season. He is a player I can see spending more time in the NHL next season, especially if he shows well as a penalty killer in preseason.
  19. LC Joe Gambardella. A slow start has given way to a good finish, he is now 47, 12-5-17 in the AHL. If he’s going to make the NHL, Gambardella will need to spike offensively next year.
  20. RC Cooper Marody. Brand new signing has skill and will receive a push beginning in the fall. He can play center or wing, suspect he’ll get a long look at pivot due to need.
  21. RC Cameron Hebig. Overage junior signed in the spring and has a good resume. His scoring for two WHL teams this year (66, 41-49-90) is eye popping. He turns pro in the fall, age 21.
  22. LC Colin Larkin. Division III center is a bit of a mystery, the good boots got him the contract and we’ll see. He is 13, 0-2-2 in Bakersfield.
  23. L Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Surged offensively when placed with McDavid, he brings some two-way acumen to the top line. He was 62, 24-24-48 this year. While all were fretting about Hall and Eberle being dealt, my main worry was Nuge. I still think he is vulnerable to trade.
  24. L Jujhar Khaira. 69, 11-10-21 in his arrival season in the NHL. Khaira has a range of skills and the offense seals the deal as a bona fide NHL player. You’ll want to see 11+ goals next season, but this is a fabulous story. Oilers don’t have a lot of third-round picks who see the light of day.
  25. L Milan Lucic. A bitterly disappoint season (82, 10-24-34) marked by an extreme lack of productivity after the AS break. He got chances too, with big time linemates. I don’t think the Oilers can enter next season projecting Lucic on a skill line.
  26. L Tyler Benson. A strong final WHL season (58, 27-42-69) was most impressive because the young man stayed healthy. His NHLE (28.29) suggests he might be closer to Jujhar Khaira than Patrick Maroon as a mature offensive player. Two-way acumen should take him far.
  27. L Ostap Safin. Slide rule. He’s a real find. A fourth rounder scored well in the QMJHL (61, 26-32-58) despite having very little in the way of help in the back half of the season. Spent time in Bakersfield and scored his first professional goal this spring. One to watch.
  28. R Jesse Puljujarvi. A mind numbing season for the youngster, he scored 65, 12-8-20 while playing with damned near every center in captivity. I want to tell the Oilers don’t let go the rope with this young man, if Chiarelli returns my suspicion is the Finn will, too. General managers rarely give up so quickly on their own lottery picks. The only question we have now is how much he’ll score.
  29. R Kailer Yamamoto. He posted three assists in nine NHL games to start the year, and then had an uneven WHL campaign (NHLE: 38). His junior offense suggests he has enough in his bat to play on a skill line, the question is when.
  30. R Pontus Aberg. I liked his game when he came over (16, 2-6-8) and there’s little doubt Aberg will be on the team in the fall. I think the Oilers see him as a skill line option.
  31. R Zack Kassian. I’ve heard more talk about his salary than about Leon’s, and that means it has been the subject many times. He scored 74, 7-12-19 this season but the Oilers haven’t got room for overpriced depth players. He could go.
  32. R Mitch Callahan. He got lost in Bakersfield (45, 2-7-9) this season, Callahan should have a better second year in California.
  33. R Kirill Maksimov. Slide rule. He may end up being the steal of 2017’s draft for Edmonton. Scoring 62, 34-46-80 (NHLE: 31.7) for Niagara IceDogs, Maksimov is a goal-scorer in an organization with very few.

RFA’S

  1. LD Darnell Nurse. Led D in scoring (82, 6-20-26) and had his best year so far, although January+ saw regression from an excellent first half. Nurse is part of the future in Edmonton.
  2. RD Matt Benning. He scored 73, 6-15-21 this season and established himself as a solid NHL defender. Seems to be past the concussion of last season and is rock solid as a third pairing option. He has more offense than some of the other Oil blue. (RFA)
  3. RC Ryan Strome. He scored 82, 13-21-34 and that’s exactly in line with expectations. Strome didn’t get much time with McDavid, one of many curios this season.
  4. The rest: Nick Ellis, Ben Betker, Drake Caggiula, Braden Christoffer, Kyle Platzer, Anton Slepyshev, Iiro Pakarinen, Patrick Russell. (Total: 11)

UFA

  • Laurent Brossoit, Mark Fayne, Yohann Auvitu, Keegan Lowe, Joey Laleggia, Dillon Simpson, Grayson Downing, Mike Cammalleri, Ty Rattie, Brian Ferlin. (10)

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It all happens TSN1260 this morning.

  • Round table at 9am. I’m on with Dustin Nielson and Dean Millard. Oilers postmortem. 
  • 10am. Todd McLellan media avail. 
  • 10:40. Pierre Lebrun.
  • 11:05. Jason Gregor. 
  • 11:20. You! Your comments. 
  • 11:40. Dave Jamieson. 

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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CaptainObvious

kr55,

The Oilers are team that beleive they are as good as their best game…….they will take a big step forward when they learn that they are ONLY as good as their worst game.

sliderule

Jaxon: Nugent-Hopkins was also having good production prior to joining McDavid as #2C with not very good wingers. I think a full year or at least a long stretch at the start of next season with McDavid to help them find more chemistry would be a very good thing. Nuge can always go back to C and it provides TMac another tool in his line deployment.

This is also why I think they should draft Veleno in the #9,#10,#11 spot if that’s where they land. The Oilers have decent wing prospects (Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Benson, Maksimov, Safin) in the system, but not much beyond their top 3 C (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins). If TMac wants to load up a line when trailing, it will deplete his C depth. It would be great to have another skilled C like Veleno. You can always move Veleno to a wing, but it usually doesn’t work the other way around. Of course, if they win the lottery they pick Dahlin and trade a LHD for a RHD. If they draft #2 or #3, I think they should pick Svechnikov over Zadina. That is purely on my gut bias. From watching highlight reels of the top prospects I feel like Zadina may be this year’s Yakupov/Daigle/Filatov/Stefan. I feel he plays on the periphery more and has something in his style that reminds me of Yak. At #12, I’d gamble on Merkley. His potential upside is too big to ignore. Pronman has a great article about him at The Athletic. It’s an eye-opener about his potential weighed against any perceived issues. I’d pick him over the other two RHD that may be available at #12. Dobson may have skating issues (Robinson at Dodders: “A smooth skater but will want to add more speed as he matures.” And Wilde hasn’t produced much offense in the USHL where he should be able to put up better numbers and the Oilers need another offensive RHD, not another Larsson. Woah, I got way off track, haha.

If Dobson has speed issues it sure didn’t show at top prospect testing.
He was fastest in sprints both forward and backwards against all players including forwards

This is problem with so called scouts using eyes rather than testing.

Ribs

hunter1909:
I read somewhere that they might be holding a management clearout Sunday. Is there anything particular about next Sunday that isappropriate for this alleged news?

It’ll be Go Fly A Kite Day?

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer:
Woodguy v2.0,

I am going to laugh if Caps start Holtby though.

I bloody well hope they do.

If they start Grubauer they probably beat CBJ.

Woodguy v2.0

who: Trying to remember Pittsburgs defense last spring. I know Hainsey, Matta and Cole were all big guys. Did they have Daley as well?
The only smaller guys were Letang and Schulz.
The Oilers would have Barrie, Sekera, Russell, Benning and possibly Bear. None of these guys are overly big and the only one who plays physical is Benning. And he gets the crap pounded out of him some nights.
There are no RyanEllis’s in this group. And the guys surrounding Ellis in Nashville are mostly bigger bodies. Ekholm, Subban, Emelin, Irwin, etc. I’m guessing even Josi is bigger than most of the Oilers blueline.

The only big Dman in NSH is Ekholm at 6’4″ 215
Emelin 6’2 218
Josi 6’1 200
Irwin 6’10 207
Subban 6’0 210

Nurse 6’4 221
Klefbom 6’3 215
Larsson 6’3 210
Sekera 6’0 200

EDM’s Dcorps is bigger than NSH

You’re really hung up on size and EDM’s top 3 are among the biggest in the NHL.

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer: Bob will have to stand on his head to get them that far.He can definitely do it, but anything short of perfection they are gone

They were one of 6 teams in the NHL to have a positive goal differential for all 4 lines.

They’re better than they seem.

DevilsLettuce

It’s a shame Todd didn’t call himself, get over yourself you’re not that good Todd.

Nope! It’s all you players! If only they lost to Calgary in game 1! They would of realized!

Seriously, this is a head coach lol.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0,

I am going to laugh if Caps start Holtby though.

Jaxon

russ99: We’re looking at a 15 game stretch in garbage time, and Connor had good 15 game stretches with Maroon too.

Connor was healthy for the first time all year, so how much of this is Connor playing well and how much really is Nuge? Not to mention, Nuge’s defensive game dropped off focusing on offense this year, and he’s just as needed vs. the toughs and could end up with a similar scoring total with some better wingers.

I’m thinking this is half good chemistry with McLellan not blending for a good stretch and half the kind of hockey rush fans want to see.

Nugent-Hopkins was also having good production prior to joining McDavid as #2C with not very good wingers. I think a full year or at least a long stretch at the start of next season with McDavid to help them find more chemistry would be a very good thing. Nuge can always go back to C and it provides TMac another tool in his line deployment.

This is also why I think they should draft Veleno in the #9,#10,#11 spot if that’s where they land. The Oilers have decent wing prospects (Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Benson, Maksimov, Safin) in the system, but not much beyond their top 3 C (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins). If TMac wants to load up a line when trailing, it will deplete his C depth. It would be great to have another skilled C like Veleno. You can always move Veleno to a wing, but it usually doesn’t work the other way around. Of course, if they win the lottery they pick Dahlin and trade a LHD for a RHD. If they draft #2 or #3, I think they should pick Svechnikov over Zadina. That is purely on my gut bias. From watching highlight reels of the top prospects I feel like Zadina may be this year’s Yakupov/Daigle/Filatov/Stefan. I feel he plays on the periphery more and has something in his style that reminds me of Yak. At #12, I’d gamble on Merkley. His potential upside is too big to ignore. Pronman has a great article about him at The Athletic. It’s an eye-opener about his potential weighed against any perceived issues. I’d pick him over the other two RHD that may be available at #12. Dobson may have skating issues (Robinson at Dodders: “A smooth skater but will want to add more speed as he matures.” And Wilde hasn’t produced much offense in the USHL where he should be able to put up better numbers and the Oilers need another offensive RHD, not another Larsson. Woah, I got way off track, haha.

sliderule

Maksimov with a nice skating deflection to win the game in overtime for ice dogs.

Positives for Kiril
Skating is good and getting better
Very god shot and release of same
Nice size 6-2 and looks thick.
Aggressive and penalty kills
Best late rounder since Reider

Negatives
Russian connections dont seem to mesh with oiler big minds
Remember what happened with Reider

who

Woodguy v2.0: PIT had the one of the smallest Dcrops running for the past two years.

Ellis is one of the most effective NHL Dmen in the league.

Don’t look at size, look at results.

Trying to remember Pittsburgs defense last spring. I know Hainsey, Matta and Cole were all big guys. Did they have Daley as well?
The only smaller guys were Letang and Schulz.
The Oilers would have Barrie, Sekera, Russell, Benning and possibly Bear. None of these guys are overly big and the only one who plays physical is Benning. And he gets the crap pounded out of him some nights.
There are no Ryan Ellis’s in this group. And the guys surrounding Ellis in Nashville are mostly bigger bodies. Ekholm, Subban, Emelin, Irwin, etc. I’m guessing even Josi is bigger than most of the Oilers blueline.

RedNed

–hudson–,

Thanks for the transcript post! I went and watched the video afterwards. Having not seen Coach for a bit over a month (life too busy, sigh) I’d say he looks gaunt, probably from stress?

And I really really hope both RNH and Nurse remain Oilers. They are both great to watch as they develop!

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0: I bet on goalies.

If ANA didn’t lose Fowler I’d bet on ANA Because Gibson

Bob will have to stand on his head to get them that far. He can definitely do it, but anything short of perfection they are gone

Jaxon

Woodguy v2.0: PIT had the one of the smallest Dcrops running for the past two years.

Ellis is one of the most effective NHL Dmen in the league.

Don’t look at size, look at results.

& who,

I agree with this. If they’re in the same league, just look at results. For prospects, you may want to look at size more when evaluating because you don’t know how much it will affect the results when they move up a level or two and play against fully grown professional men. If he’s getting results at the NHL level, then he’s getting results at the NHL level. The other thing to cinsider regarding size, is that if a smaller player is taking a lot of abuse and ending up injured a lot, but big players get hurt a lot sometimes too (Klefbom).

Woodguy v2.0

kr55:
It really is a shame that the players didn’t listen to McLellan that they weren’t really that good, and if they fail, it’ll be because they think they are too good.McLellan even took time over the summer to personally call and remind them that they’re not that good, and they just didn’t listen.Even after they beat the Flames in that 1st game and got reminded that they’re not as good as people say, they still refused to listen.Hopefully they go into next season realizing finally that they’re not that good and the results will come again.McLellan should send them home with a video that they have to watch once a day of McLellan telling them they are not a beautiful or unique snowflake, they are made of the same decaying organic matter as everything else, we’re all part of the same compost heap.

Enjoy Arbys

rickithebear

Do you know why they are called defencemen?
Do you know why they say you build winners from back out?

rickithebear

JimmyV1965:
Kassian and a pick for Faulk. And I’m only half joking.Should make their owner happy.

Faulk is a rover not a dman.

rickithebear

Woodguy v2.0: PIT had the one of the smallest Dcrops running for the past two years.

Ellis is one of the most effective NHL Dmen in the league.

Don’t look at size, look at results.

Look at the ability to defend the HD area.
PIT won cause they collapsed on HD area and pressed natural lanes.
And a goalie with the 2nd best HD performance in playoffs last 20 years.
Plus 3top 40 HD dmen.
They are down to 1.

NSH is one of 2 HD dmen factories.
The other being NJD.

rickithebear

Cassandra:
You fail to understand that Amy team measure is not an approach I take due to 3 major factors.
1. Possible permutations of a shift.
3F – 2D – 1G
12 x 11 x10 x 6 x 5 x 2 = 79,200 permutations.
Which is limited by the 1st for 4th line structure of coach
1st- 4th comp ability of players.

2.the need to look at mechanism affects of the 3 units and WoWY of players.

3. Repeatability of base performance GF and GA.
VGK had
10 gm of 5+ ga resulting in 10 losses and 63ga
228ga – 63ga = 165ga
11gm of 4ga resulting in 5w and 6 L and 44 ga
165 – 44 = 121ga
5 wins and 16L you look at were the flaws are in each game.

Other 61 gm 46w and 15L
Yielding 121/61. = 1.98 ga per gm
An elite repeatability rate.
61/82 = 77.4% of games.

Team break down is folly.
Unit & player binary mechanism and density performance.
Continued baseline repeatability by unit and player
Win and loss affect by unit and players and coaching.

Wilde

JimmyV1965,

The point is basically there are at least 10 players that are or have the ability to be net positive contributors at the NHL level in their draft+2.

So if you have one of the first 10 picks, you /should/ be getting one of those. That’s how the risk of trading the asset presents itself naturally

Harpers Hair

Woodguy v2.0: I’d do that.

Vancouver wouldn’t
They willll want a pick and a blue chip prospect in return.

Salty Fanboy

Wilde,

Valeri Nichushkin

JimmyV1965

Wilde:
You just can’t move the pick unless it’s for another guy on an ELC.

The 2016 draft has 15 players already contributing on various levels, and I don’t think it was touted as a particularly standout draft in terms of depth.

If the Oilers don’t start getting returns on a top ten pick by 2019-20, it’s because they probably picked the wrong guy. (Or maybe his coaching staff is shanking his icetime…)

It’s not considered rushing the player anymore, this is the new NHL.

I respect what you’re saying here, but I don’t agree. I think 2016 will go down as a very strong draft. Not as good as 2015, but I think much better than 2017. I think you’re right in that more young players are making it to the NHL than before, but it’s still the minority. I count 14 players from the 2015 first round as having an impact in the NHL right now in draft +3.

kr55

It really is a shame that the players didn’t listen to McLellan that they weren’t really that good, and if they fail, it’ll be because they think they are too good. McLellan even took time over the summer to personally call and remind them that they’re not that good, and they just didn’t listen. Even after they beat the Flames in that 1st game and got reminded that they’re not as good as people say, they still refused to listen. Hopefully they go into next season realizing finally that they’re not that good and the results will come again. McLellan should send them home with a video that they have to watch once a day of McLellan telling them they are not a beautiful or unique snowflake, they are made of the same decaying organic matter as everything else, we’re all part of the same compost heap.

Woodguy v2.0

who: Even if he resigns for the same money is he worth 1.5 million more than Klefbom? Not necessarily arguing, just thinking out loud.
I like a fast skilled team. Chia definitely swung the pendulum too far to the heavy hockey side. But are we in danger of swinging it too far the other way?If you flip Klefbom for Barrie it probably leaves us with the smallest dcore in the league. Would that defense get exploited by some of the Western Conference teams? We already saw the Sekera/Russellpairing lose some effectiveness in last years playoffs

PIT had the one of the smallest Dcrops running for the past two years.

Ellis is one of the most effective NHL Dmen in the league.

Don’t look at size, look at results.

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer:
Woodguy v2.0,

Wow you got the Blue Jackets going far.I personally think they have to run their rookie top line center too hard to get that far

I bet on goalies.

If ANA didn’t lose Fowler I’d bet on ANA Because Gibson

JimmyV1965

Kassian and a pick for Faulk. And I’m only half joking. Should make their owner happy.

Woodguy v2.0

Bling:
Woodguy v2.0,

The components of Corsica’s WAR are as follows:

WAR RF = Shot Rates For
WAR RA = Shot Rates Against
WAR QF = Quality of Shots For
WAR QA = Quality of Shots Against
WAR PT = Penalties Taken
WAR PD = Penalties Drawn
WAR DZ/NZ/OZ = Zone Transitions

Check out the second entry at the Corsica blog.

http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/

Thanks for that.

I think using shots and even shot location over-values volume.

You can see that in some of the results of his metric imo.

Pretty sure Manny weights last season at 50%, 2 seasons before at 30% and 3 seasons at 20%, which I think is smart.

But when using samples of that size he should use more goal data.

I understand not using one or even 2 years of goal data, but 3 is a good sample.

Shot data doesn’t catch the nuance of scoring or preventing goals.

Pretty sure that DTMAH incorporated some form of individual shooting skill into his xGF% and claimed it was a better predictor. I believe that, but don’t know what data and how he weights it into his GAR metric.

Shot volume data catches a huge part of goal scoring, that being volume and location, but by definition it equally rates each shooter and defender and we know that’s not true.

Pre-puck movement is also very important on the probability of scoring, and we don’t have that yet either, and that certainly changes with each player and sets of players.

In a large sample of players it doesn’t matter that you don’t have that nuance as you are just looking for general “truths”, but in individual analysis it misses a lot imo.

When we have puck movement data and player data I think the focus on what individuals do to prevent and create goals will be more understood.

Until then I value shot data in small samples, but not as much as goals in larger ones when it comes to analyzing individual data.

I don’t know where to draw the line, I think its at 2500 minutes or so.

Also,

Manny’s stuff doesn’t take QoC into account very well from my understanding and that’s makes a difference as well.

Woodguy v2.0

€√¥£€^$: I’d prefer the VOR/Woodguy strategy.

Trade the pick to NYR for their 2 late 1st Round picks, then trade one of these for Tanev.

I’d do that.

who

Woodguy v2.0: Contract length is a reasonable concern but I think Barrie is very re-signable and won’t cost more (or much more) than he does now.

I’m less concerned with size, just results.

I like Barrie because of his results vs NHL competition playing in the Western Conference for the last 6 years.

He won’t be playing different players than before if he plays for EDM.

Even if he resigns for the same money is he worth 1.5 million more than Klefbom? Not necessarily arguing, just thinking out loud.
I like a fast skilled team. Chia definitely swung the pendulum too far to the heavy hockey side. But are we in danger of swinging it too far the other way? If you flip Klefbom for Barrie it probably leaves us with the smallest dcore in the league. Would that defense get exploited by some of the Western Conference teams? We already saw the Sekera/Russell pairing lose some effectiveness in last years playoffs

Confused

Jets with the highest PDO, Pens with the lowest.

Confused

Bling,

No reason why WAR is worse than anything else, but quality is obviously not understood.

Many things we are told are facts are in fact highly debatable.

According to many peoples favorite NST, Carolina are the best CF% team!

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0,

Wow you got the Blue Jackets going far. I personally think they have to run their rookie top line center too hard to get that far

Bling

€√¥£€^$:
Bling,

Where did Trouba land and what was Nurse’s number?

I am hearing he was used often as 1RHD, like I said yesterday some Jets fans were pretty high on him.

Trouba: 0.50 (that is solidly within the top 60).
Nurse: -0.14

Bling

Woodguy v2.0,

The components of Corsica’s WAR are as follows:

WAR RF = Shot Rates For
WAR RA = Shot Rates Against
WAR QF = Quality of Shots For
WAR QA = Quality of Shots Against
WAR PT = Penalties Taken
WAR PD = Penalties Drawn
WAR DZ/NZ/OZ = Zone Transitions

Check out the second entry at the Corsica blog.

http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/

hunter1909

leadfarmer:
hunter1909,

If you get Patches then you pretty much have to trade Nuge and then have you really accomplished much?

RNH plays great with 97…

hunter1909

leadfarmer:
hunter1909,

If you get Patches then you pretty much have to trade Nuge and then have you really accomplished much?

Unless RNH specifically causes problems, or else simply wants to go you do every reasonable thing imaginable to keep him.

I compare him to the way everyone(but me) used to fawn over Hemsky. I personally couldn’t stand his skating around looking busy and doing jack in front of the net act. RNH on the other hand has a first class pedigree. He’s going to end up like Norm Ullman; playing for 20 years.

Yeah but the Oilers prefer derailing the team, so we’re basically on Death Watch.

€√¥£€^$

Bling,

Where did Trouba land and what was Nurse’s number?

I am hearing he was used often as 1RHD, like I said yesterday some Jets fans were pretty high on him.

€√¥£€^$

Oil2Oilers:
With a 9th or 10th overall pick I am totally comfortable with doing the Woodguy’ – 1st for Tanev trade.

I’d prefer the VOR/Woodguy strategy.

Trade the pick to NYR for their 2 late 1st Round picks, then trade one of these for Tanev.

Rondo

Woodguy v2.0,

TB
Wash
Philly
Bos

Nash
Winn
Ana
LA

Wilde

russ99: We’re looking at a 15 game stretch in garbage time, and Connor had good 15 game stretches with Maroon too.

Connor was healthy for the first time all year, so how much of this is Connor playing well and how much really is Nuge? Not to mention, Nuge’s defensive game dropped off focusing on offense this year, and he’s just as needed vs. the toughs and could end up with a similar scoring total with some better wingers.

I’m thinking this is half good chemistry with McLellan not blending for a good stretch and half the kind of hockey rush fans want to see.

‘Garbage time’ doesn’t exist.

The teams Edmonton played either needed the points or played like they did.

Last year when the team was in a playoff race, the narrative was that you need to score ‘playoff goals’ from February on. Crash the net, etc because teams are tightening up. Which one is it?

The most reasonable, likely conclusion is that there’s competitive, best league in the world level hockey being played every game.

Also speaking of February on, that’s the time when McDavid started to devour the entire league’s goaltenders. He was straight fire well before 93 went up there.

The problem with the line in the DZ is that the middle-man between them often isn’t there on time/can’t make a clean play as F2, which is why you need a better guy for that, my vote was 98.

Woodguy v2.0

–hudson–,

It’s actually not a very time consuming process. After the Oilers post the video, YouTube auto generates the captions, then I download those captions. This takes seconds. Then I’ll watch the video and proofread the captions, seperate into Q&A, then post here.

You should have said that, “no its not busy, but I care so much I take 2 hours out of my day to do this for you all”

Never let anyone see behind the curtain.

Thank you still, that’s smart.

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde: To be fair, I’d spew off about toughness and grit if I was a GM too.

It’s free.

Like a media ‘get out of jail’ card, you don’t have to tip your hand.

Then you ‘accidentally’ don’t actually make a trade/signing for intangibles, cite offer sheet threat on your biggest RFA that summer, then everyone forgets what you even said that summer once you start winning.

Smart.

Woodguy v2.0

Bling,

Can you explain every component of this WAR rating?

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer:
What are the Stanley cup previews coming out of Canada?Have they given the Leafs the cup yet?

Here’s my main guess:

TBY
BOS
CBJ
PIT

NSH
WPG
LAK
SJS

TBY
CBJ

NSH
LAK

NSH
CBJ

NSH

Woodguy v2.0

who: Well IF you are right than maybe Edmonton should do the deal. I also think that Colorado may be a willing partner because of Makar and Timmins in there system. They seem deeper on the right side than on the left.
My two big concerns are contract and size.
Klefbom is signed for longer at less money. It really is a beauty contract if we get last springs Klefbom.
And if we did this trade we are getting pretty tiny on the backend. I like small puck moving dmen. But I prefer big ones.

Contract length is a reasonable concern but I think Barrie is very re-signable and won’t cost more (or much more) than he does now.

I’m less concerned with size, just results.

I like Barrie because of his results vs NHL competition playing in the Western Conference for the last 6 years.

He won’t be playing different players than before if he plays for EDM.

russ99

godot10: It is impossible to find a better left wing for Connor McDavid with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins price point and remaining duration on his contract.McDavid Nugent-Hopkins and whoever will be a hundred goal line next year if all stay healthy.

We’re looking at a 15 game stretch in garbage time, and Connor had good 15 game stretches with Maroon too.

Connor was healthy for the first time all year, so how much of this is Connor playing well and how much really is Nuge? Not to mention, Nuge’s defensive game dropped off focusing on offense this year, and he’s just as needed vs. the toughs and could end up with a similar scoring total with some better wingers.

I’m thinking this is half good chemistry with McLellan not blending for a good stretch and half the kind of hockey rush fans want to see.

leadfarmer

hunter1909,

If you get Patches then you pretty much have to trade Nuge and then have you really accomplished much?

hunter1909

Bling:
If we’re shopping the 9th overall pick, the guy I would want is Max Pacioretty.

Proven scorer at evens, ridiculous volume shooter. If we can’t have balance, let’s just further tilt the hell out of the ice while McDavid is out there.

The Ducks would simply murder Max “Patio Ready” in any playoff series.

Basically, it’s best to collect semi-washed up, over 30’s plugs AFTER the superstars have left town.

Like the time Bernie Nichols and Vincent Damphousse replaced players like Messier and Anderson, etc.