Armed Forces

by Lowetide

My Dad was born in 1912, was 18 when the dirty 30’s hit and enlisted for World War Two age 27. He grew up poor (always said it took six years to get word of the depression to Radisson, and even then no one noticed) and he worked pretty much every day of his life. He would always say he didn’t see a banana until he was 14, couldn’t remember how old when he actually got to eat one. Based on how much he loved bananas, I expect at least part of that story is true. Dad made up so much crap (he said we changed our name because our Dutch name was Van Dumb!) we could never believe/not believe.

He hunted for bargains, even when we had a little money. I remember when I was maybe 10 years old, we went to see a man named Alex Simchuk at the hospital (he was dying of cancer). My Dad brought him grapes, and Alex was so happy (he’d been craving them). Dad enjoyed that, then proceeded to tell Alex he’d paid more for the grapes than he paid for the hat he was wearing. Dad thought the hat was a better deal. My Mom told my Dad (something like) no one cared and why couldn’t he for once say something normal (she always said that to him). I played with my Hot Wheels and my brother (he was four years older) tried to get the attention of the pretty nurses. Funny what you remember.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

New translations from Vollman mean new Oilers numbers. I’ll wait until next week to run the complete totals, but here are the top 10 forwards by NHLE. It gives us a nice stepping off point for the idea of bargains.

  • Yamamoto and Maksimov lead the teenage brigade, with Marody and Hebig posting the best amateur numbers from the 20+ group.
  • Ty Rattie is hurtling toward free agency but could be a bargain deal next season. Even if he played 30 games on the McDavid line and the rest as a depth player, it’s possible he could post 10+ goals. That would be real value for $800,000.
  • Benson, Safin and McPhee are players worth watching, you’d like to see more offense next season.

Marody looks good so far (2gp, 1-1-2) and the club is playing him at center. It’s too soon to know, but perhaps Marody can push for an NHL job at some point next season. If he can be productive, that trade (2019 third-round pick) would represent great bargain hunting and solid value. Oilers need to make this kind of move several more times over the summer.

https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/984560315462569984

This is a must read. Spector lays out what looks like an attempted (or ongoing attempt at) coup d’état in the halls of the Edmonton Oilers. The avail by Bob Nicholson yesterday suggests to me that there is something going on, if things were right the coach then general manager speak, followed by silencio. Yesterday’s muddle is a tell. I think Spector does a great job breaking things down and if you want my guess as to who the king maker is, well, I’ll bet Kevin Lowe. Lowe would have had to be onboard with replacing MacTavish with PC in 2015 spring and I expect his influence still trumps the late comers, ne’er-do-wells, storm door salesmen and the red wine mafia. If I’m right, this will be at least twice Lowe put what may be perceived as the ‘greater good’ in front of his boys on the bus brethren. I’m not getting into that argument today, beyond stating if you’re going to replace the general manager or the coach a real search must be conducted and winning the 1984 Stanley has jack diddly to do with being an NHL general manager in 2018.

BARGAINS

It’s going to be the theme of summer, along with trading that first-round selection. Oilers need to be looking to the AHL for help (the best minor league wingers at 20, in terms of shots, were Daniel Sprong of the Penguins and Mathieu Joseph of the Lightning) and possibly Europe too. The procurement this summer has limitations:

  • $1 million or less.
  • no assets out.

It needs to be a Steve Staios summer in Edmonton. The team needs value contracts applied to 20-goal scorers and backup goalies who could play 30 games capably. It can be done. The 1987 Montreal Expos are such a team. Half of their pitching staff came from the pile of broken arms, they had two third basemen and two first basemen as infield regulars, and their Hall of Fame outfielder didn’t play until May. Young, old, recently retired, playing in Russia or Switzerland. Somewhere out there are solutions and the Oilers need to find them in a quick damned hurry.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun Friday show, maybe we’ll pour some red wine to celebrate the coming warmth of the sun. At 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Oilers front office, playoffs.
  • Eric Fawcett, Press Basketball. Is this the year of the Raptors?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Is keeping Chiarelli the correct call?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

248 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 votes
Article Rating
248 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
geowal

Wayne Kenov: What is Kessy up to these days. His toughness makes him infinitely more valuable. He probably only plays in All Star games and Olympics, when the skill level is high enough for him.

He still played for the Oilers some last year….the ECHL Tulsa Oilers.

Pink Socks: I agree somewhat, but one could also make the point that PC drastically undervalued Tyler Seguin as well, a C.Blaming everything on the OBC doesn’t make sense, also agree, because there are one of two scenarios in place:

1) PC has made every decision, approved them, and therefore the onus is on him for the performance of the team and the damage he has done

or

2) The OBC is responsible for everything that has gone wrong, trades, signings, and more. IMO this looks worse on PC because he therefore is not able to assert himself in the decision making process and is thus dead weight.

I can make an argument for and against each of PC’s move and back them up with somewhat decent evidence in either direction, though it is certainly easier to be more critical of PC than supportive.I believe the truth is somewhere in between atrocious and above average.Not exactly a ringing endorsement of a GM with this roster.

I will give PC credit for improving the D corps, though it is clearly not enough.I can also give him credit for revamping and greatly improving the scouting team and at the draft table.He seems to have had 3 very good drafts since coming aboard.That does not absolve him of some of his other decisions, mileage varies on which decision has been the most detrimental. (For me it is the blatant disregard of the cap next year, this falls on PC and Nicholson).I am nervously looking forward to the summer.Feelings aside, I think we can all agree that since PC is here for next season, I hope he has a tremendous draft and tweaks around the edges to make this a 103 pt team again in 2018-19.

Seguin played wing in Boston. Not C.

leadfarmer

rickithebear,

Game has changed. It’s all about speed. You could do that same analysis on McKinnon.

Professor Q

Pescador: Sweet Caroline?
https://youtu.be/1vhFnTjia_I

No shyte. I always thought that was [embarrassingly] Tom Jones!

rickithebear

JimmyV1965: I don’t know how you can possibly think wingers are just as valuable as centres. Think about their roles and responsibilities on the ice.Does it make the Hall trade good? Not even close.

Hall last 2 years with oilers
135gm 40g 63a 103 pt -5
Averaged 68gm Hall 14gm 13-17fwd
68gm 20g 32A 52p -3

First year in jersey
72gm 20g 33a 53p -9

An avg of 61 fwds per season achieved 20g 52p
Bottom 1st line forward upper #3 fwd.

We go and get a top 5 HD dman and make the playoffs.
The we run a OZ perimeter swarm abandoning HD area and miss the playoffs.

Hall stated he got better once he started to listen to coach.

What fantasy land does Hall listen to the coach in Edmonton last year or this year.

Once again a false hall would be a great Oiler narrative!
We traded 4yr of upper #3 fwd for 5 yr of top 5 HD dmen in the league when you need 3+ top 40 HD dmen.
It allowed Sekera a top15 hd dman facing 2nd comp.
To form the #3 2nd comp HD dpair in the league.

The big mistake was moving eberle.
One of the 15 most consistent g and point producers over his final 4 seasons.
PC traded 2yr of 81gm 23g 60p when healthy
Or 76gm 23g 49p unhealthy
For 4+ yr of #3 C Strome
81gm 14G 21A 35p
13evg 15 Eva 28 Evp

RNH 15-16 & 16-17 averaged
69gm 15g 24a 39p
11evg 17eva 28evp

Stromes similiar even numbers frees up RNH to play PvP left wing.with Mcdavid.
16gm 8g 9a 17p
Which is what I have said he is for 6 years.

Do you want LW hall and RW Eberle with no Larsson, RNH, or strome

C – Mcdavid, Draisatl, Strome, Khaira
LW – RNH, xxx, Lucic, Slepyshev
RW – Puljujärvi – Aberg – xxx – Kassian

Yamamoto sept 29birth day. (14/365) WHL (.302/.32)
82gm NHLE adjusted for age and league.
17yr – Age. .510; age/league.4813
25g 35a 60p
19evg 18 Eva 37evp
6 ppg 15 papa 21 ppp
0 she 2 sha 2 ship

18 yr – age .404; age league .3813
23g 37a 60p
16 evg 24a 40pevp
4ppg 12ppa 16 ppp
2shg 0 sha 2 shp

Avg 24g 36a 60p
18evg 21eva 39evp
5 ppg 14 ppg 19 ppp
1shg 1 sha 2 shp

Biggus Dickus

geowal:
Seeing Rieder good in this OT for LA. Too bad he slipped away, we all thought we had a draft steal (and did).

What is Kessy up to these days. His toughness makes him infinitely more valuable. He probably only plays in All Star games and Olympics, when the skill level is high enough for him.

geowal

Pescador: Haha you got me,
That was a total guess.
Who was the back up?

Ben Scrivens was brought in same time. The illustrious Bryzgalov was still around then.

geowal

Seeing Rieder good in this OT for LA. Too bad he slipped away, we all thought we had a draft steal (and did).

Younger Oil

Wait, why can refs look at the jumbotron to determine the right call for delay of game penalties, but not any other call?

That is so dumb.

Pescador

Mike Wazowski: When Dubnyk was traded Deslauriers wasn’t on the team.

Haha you got me,
That was a total guess.
Who was the back up?

Mike Wazowski

Pescador: Oilers didn’t have Pekka Rinne,
They had Jeff Deslauriers

When Dubnyk was traded Deslauriers wasn’t on the team.

Pescador

Professor Q: I don’t even know who Neil Diamond is.

Sweet Caroline?
https://youtu.be/1vhFnTjia_I

Pescador

Professor Q: Don’t feel too badly. Nashville did, too.

Oilers didn’t have Pekka Rinne,
They had Jeff Deslauriers

Mike Wazowski

Professor Q: Don’t feel too badly. Nashville did, too.

So did Montreal.

Professor Q

Todd Macallan:
Kadri gets 3 games. Good, glad. Could not happen to a nicer guy. Great player, worse person.

I’m not the only one thinking it: Finally.

He’s gotten away with way too much.

Professor Q

Wayne Kenov:
DD looked pretty good tonight. Shame we pissed him away too.

Don’t feel too badly. Nashville did, too.

Professor Q

godot10: The original Neil Diamond version is better!-).When Neil Diamond was cool, before he was uncool, before he was cool again.

I don’t even know who Neil Diamond is.

Mike Wazowski

rickithebear: 05-06 Lowe
1. Elite HD sys coach
MacT hellyeah
2. Top 10 HD save goalie
Rolloson Hell yeah
Markennen top 30
3. 3 +60 HD Dmen
Spacek top5
Pronger top 10
Smith top 25
Staios Top 30
Greene top 40
Tarnstrom top 60
4. Top 6 teamtop 125 fwds 05-06 (19g 47p)
Smith 1.57 125 fwd
Horcoff 1.32
Stoll 1.27
Hemskey 1.25
Samsanov 1.18
Torres 1.11
5. Above avg bott 6(9 evg)
Pisani 13 Evp Top 100
6. + ve goal diff special teams.

We win series in 4-5 games with Rolosson

This assumes Roloson could maintain his near MVP level of play. Based on the goals he gave up in game 1 and watching his play for 3 more seasons afterwards, my personal opinion is that we would have seen a downturn in his quality of play for a few games. He could also have bounced back the next game.

Woodguy is right though, the loss still stings.

Biggus Dickus

DD looked pretty good tonight. Shame we pissed him away too.

Spooky Lynx

This VGK/LAK series has been fabulous hockey. My Gord, do I ever love the playoffs.

Munny

First blood Vegas, on the powerplay, and a Jim dandy one it was.

Munny

They never want you to know what time it is in Vegas.

Munny

That man is not a soprano, no sir.

Munny

On paper that Kings D looks thinner than a communion wafer… and likely will need more prayers.

Munny

Spector would know Herbers from back in the Uni day. Not that “Red Wine Summits” need insider info to observe. And not saying Herbers is the guy either… he played for that other famous Broncos team and to my knowledge has never said a word on it.

pts2pndr

Cassandra:
The biggest thing, to my eye, from Chiarelli’s availability was more evidence of his inability or unwillingness to learn from his mistakes.

To wit, he specifically mentioned how he thought the offense from wingers was adequate and, in any case, wingers are easy to find.

This is the false heuristic that led to the Taylor Hall trade.

Chiarelli thinks that wingers are inherently less valuable than other positions.There is no rational or empirical reason for thinking this.Therefore we can conclude with reasonable certainty that a)Chiarelli believes things that are false because he doesn’t understand the issues, and b) Chiarelli is going to continue making mistakes because he uses the wrong criteria for evaluating players.

Centers are not more valuable than wingers.There is no evidence that they are.There is no reason to believe that they are.

In this vein, we can start developing simple criteria for evaluating coaches and general managers.

For general managers it would be something like:

1) If you trade first round picks like they are an infinite resource you cannot be my general manager.
2) If you think of your team in terms of needs rather than talent then you cannot be my general manager.Never trade talent for need.

For coaches it would be something like:

1) If your first unit PP has two defensemen on it, I seriously question your judgement.
2) If you play Milan Lucic more than 10 minutes a night, I seriously question your judgement.
3) If you insist that young players earn their minutes while gifting minutes to veterans who can’t play, I seriously question your judgement.

Chiarelli did not say star wingers were easier to find! Given that the average NHL roster has 14 forwards of which nine or ten are wingers the ratio of either 9-5 or 10-4 would indicate strictly by the numbers a winger would be easier to acquire! Given that Chiarelli has been in the business of player aquisition for a number of years I would tend to take his word over your protestation! In addition the basic law of supply and demand that the price to acquire a center via trade would be higher. Once again pre and simple logic. If aquiring a first or second line center is so easy why is there mot more movement of centers? As fans we have no idea of what players are available or for the most part what other GM’s are asking in return. In all honesty we don’t know what we don’t know! You supesition is just that supesition!

Alpine

OmJo:
Alpine,

I shared a screenshot of this on Twitter. Hope you don’t mind – if you do I’ll definitely delete the tweet. If you have Twitter I can post it again and give you direct credit.

No problem! Go right ahead. I appreciate that you found my ramblings worth sharing haha.

Scungilli Slushy

godot10:
The Leafs have to start dealing with the cap this summer.Ditto Jets.We get to observe if either of those management teams execute the cap highwire better.

My impression/speculation/gut-tells-me is that the McLellan camp is Spector’s main source.

As talk around here often mentioned Connor’s ELC and wasting the window the Leafs over the next two seasons will have to offload salary and will lose a lot of depth. Matthew’s ELC wasted!

Scungilli Slushy

Todd Macallan:
Kadri gets 3 games. Good, glad. Could not happen to a nicer guy. Great player, worse person.

Looks like the up and comer teams get the discipline.

Scungilli Slushy

godot10:
The Leafs have to start dealing with the cap this summer.Ditto Jets.We get to observe if either of those management teams execute the cap highwire better.

My impression/speculation/gut-tells-me is that the McLellan camp is Spector’s main source.

That will be interesting for sure and probably hurt.

As for the summits, it might be awkward all around. I’m sure teams that keep former stars around run into issues with their personal choices, but I doubt that they have a voice in things which would be less complicated.

These young players have a chance at greatness. The less distractions the better.

godot10

The Leafs have to start dealing with the cap this summer. Ditto Jets. We get to observe if either of those management teams execute the cap highwire better.

My impression/speculation/gut-tells-me is that the McLellan camp is Spector’s main source.

Todd Macallan

Kadri gets 3 games. Good, glad. Could not happen to a nicer guy. Great player, worse person.

hunter1909

Bandwagon fan: Either Jets or Preds making the finals.

hunter1909

Hilariously the OBC’s main pitch has always been that the more of them there are the more brains in the room but sadly after 15 seasons of learning on the job(a thing they themselves don’t offer to the prospects) it appears that the more of them there are, the dumber the decision making; and the more hopeless the future looks insofar as winning any cups.

Gretzky can knock back a bottle of brandy by 11AM and he’s still the perfect ambassador.

As fans, we’re gone the full circle. Now the new hires will be kept on despite clear failure, the fans can predictably hang themselves in frustration.

Myself, I always cheered for winning teams until the Lowe+MacT Oilers. Drank the kool-aid, always happy to predict 100 points as a baseline. Now, with Chiarelli+McLellan back to non-achieve… except not the cup. That’s officially been designated a non-issue.

Who knows what brings next season? Playoffs, a round or two. Crippling salary cap issues – meaning the next player Oilers lose will be someone like Darnell Nurse. We know the AHL team is a disaster. They never even make the playoffs. The players come up to the NHL and haven’t got a clue. It’s mind-boggling compared to the Philadelphia Flyers who are a factory for excellent NHL prospects who flourish.

Scungilli Slushy

Hey Woodguy
I know you aren’t answer monkey but being answer donkey is a bit much. Get the lead out mate! ?

Spooky Lynx

Scungilli Slushy,

Yup. Your original point is fair, he certainly could have done a better job than he did.

Scungilli Slushy

Spooky Lynx: To be fair to KLowe (which is something I typically don’t endorse) the biggest piece of the 06 puzzle being traded was no fault of anyone but the player himself. Losing a player like Pronger in the way the Oil did would create a massive vacuum for any hockey team, it’s just too bad that it happened on the team we cheer for.

True. But he lost a lot of others good players as well and traded his best D for a guy with a chronic injury.

Scungilli Slushy

rickithebear: 05-06 Lowe
1. Elite HD sys coach
MacT hellyeah
2. Top 10 HD save goalie
Rolloson Hell yeah
Markennen top 30
3. 3 +60 HD Dmen
Spacek top5
Pronger top 10
Smith top 25
Staios Top 30
Greene top 40
Tarnstrom top 60
4. Top 6 teamtop 125 fwds 05-06 (19g 47p)
Smith 1.57 125 fwd
Horcoff 1.32
Stoll 1.27
Hemskey 1.25
Samsanov 1.18
Torres 1.11
5. Above avg bott 6(9 evg)
Pisani 13 Evp Top 100
6. + ve goal diff special teams.

We win series in 4-5 games with Rolosson

I still don’t want to think about it.

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy v2.0: I appreciate the way you asked.

“Not an answer monkey” is always good.

On my phone, but will look when I can.

No worries mate.

godot10

Woodguy v2.0: Hall’s Relative Goal Share (on/off) over his career:

10/11 +2.0
11/12 +9.0
13 +10.6
13/14 +8.7
14/15 +16.7
15/16 +11.8
16/17 +10.7
17/18 +13.2

His year with St. Ralph (13) is his 5th best in terms of how he out performs the rest of the team.

His relative stats are depressed relatively because Krueger is a better coach than Renney, Eakins, and McLellan, and was able to do far more with far less with the rest of the roster (plus good luck)…but Krueger has always seemed to carry around a lucky horseshoe. But then one has to be good to be lucky.

Woodguy v2.0

rickithebear: 05-06 Lowe
1. Elite HD sys coach
MacT hellyeah
2. Top 10 HD save goalie
Rolloson Hell yeah
Markennen top 30
3. 3 +60 HD Dmen
Spacek top5
Pronger top 10
Smith top 25
Staios Top 30
Greene top 40
Tarnstrom top 60
4. Top 6 teamtop 125 fwds 05-06 (19g 47p)
Smith 1.57 125 fwd
Horcoff 1.32
Stoll 1.27
Hemskey 1.25
Samsanov 1.18
Torres 1.11
5. Above avg bott 6(9 evg)
Pisani 13 Evp Top 100
6. + ve goal diff special teams.

We win series in 4-5 games with Rolosson

Why do you want to hurt me?

Spooky Lynx

Scungilli Slushy:
Lowe blew high end assets as well. Lowe did put together the 06 run team but couldn’t keep it together and didn’t do well after.

To be fair to KLowe (which is something I typically don’t endorse) the biggest piece of the 06 puzzle being traded was no fault of anyone but the player himself. Losing a player like Pronger in the way the Oil did would create a massive vacuum for any hockey team, it’s just too bad that it happened on the team we cheer for.

rickithebear

Scungilli Slushy:
Chiarelli has built a deeper team than either MacT or Lowe ever did. Lowe blew high end assets as well. Lowe did put together the 06 run team but couldn’t keep it together and didn’t do well after. I think he was fortunate in 06 more than good.

I like the player types that Chiarelli wants, but they are rare and that’s the problem. Physical talented good skating aggressive players don’t abound. And cost the moon. So you should take talent in lieu.

05-06 Lowe
1. Elite HD sys coach
MacT hellyeah
2. Top 10 HD save goalie
Rolloson Hell yeah
Markennen top 30
3. 3 + 60 HD Dmen
Spacek top5
Pronger top 10
Smith top 25
Staios Top 30
Greene top 40
Tarnstrom top 60
4. Top 6 team top 125 fwds 05-06 (19g 47p)
Smith 1.57 125 fwd
Horcoff 1.32
Stoll 1.27
Hemskey 1.25
Samsanov 1.18
Torres 1.11
5. Above avg bott 6 (9 evg)
Pisani 13 Evp Top 100
6. + ve goal diff special teams.

We win series in 4-5 games with Rolosson

Spooky Lynx

jake70,

I hate to be pedantic, but it’s McLellan, not McLelland.

Thanks for transcribing that though, it’s interesting hearing the verbal from the wider hockey world.

Woodguy v2.0

Scungilli Slushy:
Hey Woodguy
I know you aren’t answer monkey, but what’s your opinion on Grabner’s metrics? I see him as a good fit for the Oilers, affordable, PKs and scored goals.

I’m on my phone and parsing NST isn’t easy, but it seems he drags most players down. Which probably isn’t what we’re looking for.

I appreciate the way you asked.

“Not an answer monkey” is always good.

On my phone, but will look when I can.

Scungilli Slushy

Hey Woodguy
I know you aren’t answer monkey, but what’s your opinion on Grabner’s metrics? I see him as a good fit for the Oilers, affordable, PKs and scored goals.

I’m on my phone and parsing NST isn’t easy, but it seems he drags most players down. Which probably isn’t what we’re looking for.

Woodguy v2.0

godot10: Hall was arguably better in the Krueger season than this year.If not for the no help from the OBC at the deadline and the poor end to the season (no fault to Hall), he would have been q Hart candidate that season if the Oilers had made the playoffs.

Hall’s Relative Goal Share (on/off) over his career:

10/11 +2.0
11/12 +9.0
13 +10.6
13/14 +8.7
14/15 +16.7
15/16 +11.8
16/17 +10.7
17/18 +13.2

His year with St. Ralph (13) is his 5th best in terms of how he out performs the rest of the team.

godot10

jake70:
John Shannon, who I listen to carefully when he and McCown discuss Oilers (I think he is well connected there)on the PTS roundtable discussing Oilers.On McLelland:(and he mentioned similar a few weeks ago talking Oilers)

“….guys like Chiarelli and Nicholson can address better than we (roundtable guys) can…isis that how flexible was McLelland?..how open was MclLelland to change and input and to me that becomes the real storyline..you know they had a stagnant powerplay, they had very poor penalty killing…..you know special teams we talked about in the maple leafs series – special teams is how a team gets defined now…if you’re not very good at both of those you;re not gonna win very many games…so did they just keep bringing out the same band of brothers and doing the same thing well for most of the year they did…so why did they do that ?why wasn’t there change? why wasn’t there different practice methods and I think that’s the question that those..that triumvirate McLelland,Nicholson, Chiarelli have to ask each other if there has to be a decision to be made on who the coach is ”

They then talked about injuires, they ween’t fast enough and debated Taylor Hall trade – couple arguing Hall was not and would not have been the “superstar” he is now with NJ.

Never a dull moment as they say.

Hall was arguably better in the Krueger season than this year. If not for the no help from the OBC at the deadline and the poor end to the season (no fault to Hall), he would have been q Hart candidate that season if the Oilers had made the playoffs.

rickithebear

Proper prospect performance measure involves 3 crutcal issues.
1. Unit differentiation.
Even (total, primary, goal)
PP
SH

2. League equivalency.
Converting current Desjardins NHLE (updated by Vollman) to Desjardins original .32 chl charts.
Ex. WHL .302/.32 x (g a p)

3. Age translation based on days beyond
16yr draft -1 75 to 100% ((.25 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .75) x converted (g a p) 33% variance
17yr draft 50-75% ((.25 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .50) x converted (g a p) 50% variance
18yr draft +1 40-50% ((.10 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .40) x converted (g a p) 20% variance
19yr draft +2 35-40% ((.05 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .35) x converted (g a p) 12% variance
20yr draft +3 32-35% ((.03 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .32) x converted (g a p)
Non chl leagues
21yr draft +4 .30-.32
22yr draft +5 .29-.30
18 yr season should be draft year.

I do this for all prospects cause age is biggest variance and you can compare thier chl seasons to see if they are consistent year to year. And elimates zoom ( strome without Mcdavid) and injury (Monohan healthy @16)
16 vs 17
17 vs 18
18 vs 19
19 vs 20

Scungilli Slushy

Chiarelli has built a deeper team than either MacT or Lowe ever did. Lowe blew high end assets as well. Lowe did put together the 06 run team but couldn’t keep it together and didn’t do well after. I think he was fortunate in 06 more than good.

I like the player types that Chiarelli wants, but they are rare and that’s the problem. Physical talented good skating aggressive players don’t abound. And cost the moon. So you should take talent in lieu.