AHL Game 68: Reign at Condors

Jesse Puljujarvi was the most successful recall this season by the Edmonton Oilers. Fans got to see the big Finn, a surprising 20-year old defender and a veteran winger still trying to break into the show at age 25. It’s not close to where it needs to be but the Condors sent their best to the show.

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CONDORS RECALLS, THE FINAL ROLL

  • October 7 recall Anton Slepyshev (50, 6-6-12)
  • October 15 recall Brad Malone (7, 0-0-0)
  • November 10 recall Jesse Puljujarvi (65, 12-8-20)
  • November 29 recall Nick Ellis (did not play)
  • February 10 recall Keegan Lowe (2, 0-0-0)
  • February 24 recall Ty Rattie (15, 5-4-9)
  • February 27 recall Ethan Bear (18, 1-3-4)
  • March 19 recall Dillon Simpson (did not play)

GERRY FLEMING’S GRADUATES

With due respect to Bakersfield fans, Fleming’s job is to develop prospects for the NHL team and through three seasons the list of graduates is impressive. In giving credit to the AHL coaching staff, it’s important to be realistic in evaluating how much influence they have on a specific prospect. We can’t give Fleming credit for Leon Draisiatl (six games) or Darnell Nurse (nine games), but we should be able to establish a reasonable measure of influence. Here are the men who played at least 50 games under Fleming in the AHL and have played at least 25 (10 for goalies) games in the NHL at this time:

  • Tyler Pitlick: 51 AHL games, 138 NHL games
  • Anton Slepyshev: 59 AHL games, 102 NHL games
  • Jujhar Khaira: 76 AHL games, 94 NHL games
  • Jesse Puljujarvi: 49 AHL games, 93 NHL games
  • Jordan Oesterle: 153 AHL games, 80 NHL games
  • Brad Hunt: 142 AHL games, 78 NHL games
  • Griffin Reinhart: 84 AHL games, 37 NHL games
  • Laurent Brossoit: 131 AHL games, 28 NHL games

You can only coach the players given, and there wasn’t a lot of talent on this year’s team.  Fleming was an assistant coach for the 2008-09 Springfield Falcons. It had more prospects than this year’s Condors. That team featured Devan Dubnyk, Rob Schremp, Ryan Potulny, Ryan Stone, Slava Trukhno, J-F Jacques, Gilbert Brule, Colin McDonald, Taylor Chorney, Theo Peckham, Ryan O’Marra, Liam Reddox. That is 12, only Devan Dubnyk made it in a big way. I think Jesse Puljujarvi will have a handsome career in the NHL, but after that there are no sure things.

I think we can give credit to Fleming for Jujhar Khaira, and Peter Chiarelli said Jesse Puljujarvi was improved after returning from California. I think that’s fair. Anton Slepyshev performed as well for Fleming (per 82 AHL games, Sleppy is 22-19-43) as he did in the NHL (now 102, 10-13-23). I think Ethan Bear (not listed) is also a player who flourished under Fleming. The other thing you can say about Fleming’s callups is they seem to hit the ice ready to perform. Khaira to Rattie these guys help. Puljujarvi was fire on ice when he arrived.

Assistant coaching candidates

My favorite candidate: Rocky Thompson. Smart and with a growing resume, I think he would be a good addition. Met him years ago, he was wicked smart and I expect that remains true. Bright people, good ideas. They never go out of style. Todd Nelson we all like, I liked Craig Ramsay and Billy Moores (he’s probably the smartest of the bunch).

I think Craig MacTavish would be a brilliant assistant coach. I don’t know if he is wired to do it and you would have to threaten him with violence if he tried to take over the power play, but man that guy is smart. I also like Charlie Huddy as an option but he isn’t coming back.

Trent Yawney worked on McLellan’s staff in San Jose, I’ve read good things about him.

Stuart Skinner is sporting a .931 save percentage in the WHL playoffs, trailing only Carter Hart among regulars. He was .914 during the regular season for Swift Current (after coming over from Lethbridge) and continues to build his resume as the best goalie in the system. I’ll speak to Shawn Mullin about Skinner (and the series) on Saturday Sports Extra at 3:05 today.

ALEXANDER HAIG

  • Elliotte Friedman to Bob Stauffer via 630 CHED: “Like if he says, ‘I want to do this trade,’ can he just do it. Every GM – and he’s the president of hockey ops too – everybody has a boss, right. But I do wonder if there’s anything been done to say, ‘Before you do this, we need to run it through some people.’ Source

This is nuts. If this is true, then this will end in absolute disaster. I don’t believe in this kind of thing and if the Oilers management have this arrangement they’ll deserve their fate. If you don’t believe in the general manager, you can fire him today, with cause. This is the simplest business move in the book. However, if you bring the man back then at least give him all of the tools required to make things happen. We don’t know what we don’t know, but to my mind this is just strange enough to be true. What a way to run a railroad.

 

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316 Responses to "AHL Game 68: Reign at Condors"

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  1. flyfish1168 says:

    I was wondering why Jesse wasn’t sent down to Bakersfield after the Oiler season was done? or was this an oversight? Or is he participating in the worlds?

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    Is JP the most successful call-up? Arguable. Rattie has more mojo with Connor. Bear, not blowing the doors off, but not the worst D on the night, any night.

    The Friedman thing. Didn’t catch it, but is he saying there should or should not be a check for any major decisions?

    I think a lot of decisions are made by committee, with the GM having the casting vote. Some, if not most, proposals won’t even be from him.

    Trouble is, you could still be using the right processes and getting shitty results.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    This is nuts. If this is true, then this will end in absolute disaster. I don’t believe in this kind of thing and if the Oilers management have this arrangement they’ll deserve their fate. If you don’t believe in the general manager, you can fire him today, with cause. This is the simplest business move in the book. However, if you bring the man back then at least give him all of the tools required to make things happen. We don’t know what we don’t know, but to my mind this is just strange enough to be true. What a way to run a railroad.

    Honest question:

    What is the difference between this and having a guy who asks “are you sure you want to do that”?

    It seems very similar to me.

  4. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    I was wondering why Jesse wasn’t sent down to Bakersfield after the Oiler season was done? or was this an oversight? Or is he participating in the worlds?

    He might have a tweak or both the player and team may have felt he’d played enough hockey. It’ll be interesting to see if he plays for Finland, had a strange experience one year ago.

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    You can only coach the players given, and there wasn’t a lot of talent on this year’s team.

    The one area where Chiarelli appears to have made a definite positive impact is drafting [along with Bob Green].

    If Trades & UFA signings were as strong, the city would be establishing a permanent parade route.

  6. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: He might have a tweak or both the player and team may have felt he’d played enough hockey. It’ll be interesting to see if he plays for Finland, had a strange experience one year ago.

    His buddy is an awesome player to watch. Maybe we should send Jesse to follow him during his playoff and learn to put himself in the same position to shoot.

  7. geowal says:

    flyfish1168:
    I was wondering why Jesse wasn’t sent down to Bakersfield after the Oiler season was done? or was this an oversight? Or is he participating in the worlds?

    I think its not very common with players who participated in the “full” or most of the rigour or an NHL season, just with later callups who didn’t get as many games in. Jesse has earned his break, same as the other NHLers.
    I haven’t seen him on a worlds roster, that could still come to pass.

  8. Glass says:

    Has Dylan Wells fallen off the map? Skinner’s numbers are certainly encouraging.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    This is nuts. If this is true, then this will end in absolute disaster. I don’t believe in this kind of thing and if the Oilers management have this arrangement they’ll deserve their fate. If you don’t believe in the general manager, you can fire him today, with cause. This is the simplest business move in the book. However, if you bring the man back then at least give him all of the tools required to make things happen. We don’t know what we don’t know, but to my mind this is just strange enough to be true. What a way to run a railroad.

    Honest question:

    What is the difference between this and having a guy who asks “are you sure you want to do that”?

    It seems very similar to me.

    Control. Responsibility. Accountability. It’s a middle management idea, get everyone to sign off so we’re all safe. It’s Tambellini.

  10. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Katz’s inability to ever fire anyone is perplexing.
    I do wonder how many of Chias trades actually did get approval of the brain trust

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Glass:
    Has Dylan Wells fallen off the map? Skinner’s numbers are certainly encouraging.

    https://youtu.be/3V8nl8v24cQ

    In the words of Super Nintendo Chalmers (Ralphism)

  12. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    MacT as an assistant coach would be a bad idea in my opinion. I am not sure he would want to do it anyway, but any respectable head coach probably would not want that scenario.

    The head coach should pick his assistants. Full stop. If they fail, and he does not want to replace them, the buck stops with him.

    Put it this way, if I am TMc and Bob tells me MacT will be my assistant I would rather resign than coach while looking over my shoulder.

  13. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Control. Responsibility. Accountability. It’s a middle management idea, get everyone to sign off so we’re all safe. It’s Tambellini.

    Experienced this a lot recently. And it’s from the 90’s book of management too. Took me a while to adapt after the military, who teach ‘right or wrong, make a decision’. That wasn’t to say no thought or process was applied, just that in certain situations, indecision will kill you and your team.

    Now at where I work, it’s extremely middle management heavy, with lots of roles, but nobody truly responsible for anything. You ask a straight question, “who is in charge of this project, who has the final say?”, and you get prevarication and mis-direction. But they are very quick to nix any idea that falls into their remit. This engenders tit-for-tat, suppression of ideas and blocking of progress. Also, there is nobody to make a final decision or adjudicate.

    In summary, it’s a fucking mess.

  14. Bag of Pucks says:

    You’re absolutely right LT. This is no way to run a railroad so why would seemingly intelligent and accomplished men go down this path? The answers in my experience are fear and ego.

    Fear because there’s a comfort in group-think consensus decision making. People who are fearful of sticking their necks out based on the merits of their own vision love crowd sourcing strategy because it takes a direct target off their back. “Hey, it wasn’t just me. Everybody wanted to trade Hall!”

    The problem with this approach of course is it minimizes the input of your most talented people and reduces your competitive edge by catering to the lowest common denominator. Sure, everyone should be allowed an opinion. But if you want your organization to excel, the smartest person should make the final call, even if that means he’s going against the groupthink on this one.

    Second, and more problematic, ego. Katz. Gretzky. Messier. Nicholson. Lowe. MacTavish. The Red Wine Summit. Man, I can hear their group charter now…”We are very important men. We have many leather bound books and our apartments smell of rich mahogany.”

    Ego is the number one enemy of success. The second you think you’ve got all the answers is the second you lose your edge and forget that you got to the top by staying humble and outworkng the competition.

    Why do so many organizations build a dynasty and then fall into a cesspool for a decade or more after? Ego. Every one’s a ‘very important person.’ Everyone’s voice must be heard. Bullshit. Accomplishment is a product of what you’re doing today and what you’re planning for tomorrow. An illustrious past counts for nothing.

    Katz, clean this fucking house before it’s too late.

  15. tileguy says:

    Can somebody please do a cartoon showing Katz wearing an apron, sweeping out the Oilers bus, showing figures wearing hockey jersey with numbers like 4, 99, 7 ect landing on their backside, while a bunch of men wearing tophats, like monopolys Mr. Moneybags, stand around pointing and laughing at the bus. In the little cloud above Katz head would be the words “I’ve had enough of being the laughing stock at the club”. Oh, as an after thought, perhaps the figures being swept out of the bus can be holding wine glasses.

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Control. Responsibility. Accountability. It’s a middle management idea, get everyone to sign off so we’re all safe. It’s Tambellini.

    Ok.

    I see it differently.

    I agree that either you trust your guy or you don’t, but having someone ask you “are you sure you want to do that” is a good idea.

  17. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    There are lots of extremely successful individuals throughout history that were very egotistical. In fact it’s a trait. But it is a double edged sword.

    But here’s the thing; those types don’t usually work well together, unless to further their own agenda. It certainly wouldn’t be from altruism or the greater good.

    *chants ‘The Greater Good’*

  18. Woogie63 says:

    Decisions are made different vs 30 years ago.

    Business is too complex for one person to know everything.
    Inputs are too complex for one person to master everything.

    It is highly appropriate to gather the input of your colleagues.

    The boss walled off in a corner office, does not exist any more.

    The last company I worked for eliminated walls completely CEO down.

  19. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ok.

    I see it differently.

    I agree that either you trust your guy or you don’t, but having someone ask you “are you sure you want to do that” is a good idea.

    I make the decisions in my house. But luckily I have my wonderful wife to say “you’re not fucking doing that.”

    Checks and balances!

  20. Jethro Tull says:

    Woogie63,

    How did the roof stay up?

  21. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Bag of Pucks,

    There are lots of extremely successful individuals throughout history that were very egotistical. In fact it’s a trait. But it is a double edged sword.

    But here’s the thing; those types don’t usually work well together, unless to further their own agenda. It certainly wouldn’t be from altruism or the greater good.

    *chants ‘The Greater Good’*

    So yeah, the idea of one of those egos moving down to the bench to be my assistant?No thank you!!

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Woogie63,

    How did the roof stay up?

    A little early in the day to be winning the thread, no?

  23. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ok.

    I see it differently.

    I agree that either you trust your guy or you don’t, but having someone ask you “are you sure you want to do that” is a good idea.

    He should have that now, doubt there’s a lack of input from Keith Gretzky and that group.

  24. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ok.

    I see it differently.

    I agree that either you trust your guy or you don’t, but having someone ask you “are you sure you want to do that” is a good idea.

    There’s a difference though between having a right hand man who acts as your conscience when decision-making, and having a couple of people who technically rank higher than you, and with their own direct conduit to the owner, scrutinize your decision-making.

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: He should have that now, doubt there’s a lack of input from Keith Gretzky and that group.

    – who else though is in “that group”?

    – an effective tool that is used all the time in the corporate world is rather than fire people you offer them a different post.

    – Chia: “ok mact you’ve done some really good things your a warrior. We really need your eyes on the bench at Bakersfield as the assistant coach for our new head coach. You know show him the ropes share your awesome skills”

    – Mact: “I really see myself continuing as the #2 in this org and a a wine summit member”

    – Chia: “well the organization feels strongly that you need to move to Bakersfield and be assistant coach”

    – this is the opposite of what’s happened in the past “you sucked at scouting great promoted to head of player development. You sucked as coach great your the new gm”

    – The wheels on the bus go round and round.

  26. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ok.

    I see it differently.

    I agree that either you trust your guy or you don’t, but having someone ask you “are you sure you want to do that” is a good idea.

    LT I think I know what you’re saying but Woodguy is drawing the opposite conclusion.

    I think Friedman is building a narrative or continuing the narrative that Spector started.

    It’s important to remember that it’s a narrative, meaning that it’s an interpretation of events.

    Chia has the final say, but I’d expect group meetings in the boardroom with Nicholson, the assistant GMs and the pro scouts.

    Look at the video of the Seguin trade. That’s on Chiarelli but it sure looked like other people (Neely) had made their minds up.

    Does this mean he doesn’t have authority, or does it mean he brings a trade scenario to his team to review?

  27. dustrock says:

    What would you prefer for this organization: that Chia alone made the Reinhart, Hall and Eberle trades, or that the organization agreed with all of those moves?

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woogie63:
    Decisions are made different vs 30 years ago.

    Business is too complex for one person to know everything.
    Inputs are too complex for one person to master everything.

    It is highly appropriate to gather the input of your colleagues.

    The boss walled off in a corner office, does not exist any more.

    The last company I worked for eliminated walls completely CEO down.

    The top companies that truly dominate their industries were/are led by visionary leaders. Jobs, Musk, Brin/Page, Benioff, etc.

    Consensus management is the norm in the real world because of competition for the talent pool. Realistically for instance, most Edmonton companies are not going to be able to attract a Fortune 500 calibre CEO.

    The NHL does not have this issue. 31 teams and hundreds of GM candidates.

    Sam Pollock. Jerry West. Bill Belichik. Glen Sather. Get a smart guy and let him make the decisions. This is a proven model in professional sports if you want to win multiple championships.

  29. Woogie63 says:

    Starting defensemen last night
    Winnipeg looks very good, but are the Oilers with a healthy Sekera and Klefbom, that wildly different than the rest?

    Phaneuf
    Colin
    Fantenberg
    Martinez
    LaDue
    Gravel
    —————
    McNabb
    Engelland
    Miller
    Merrill
    Theodore
    Schmidt
    ————-
    Gudas
    Sanheim
    Manning
    MacDonald
    Ghost
    Provorov
    ————-
    Rubwedal
    Maatta
    Shultz
    Oleksiak
    Dumoulin
    Letang
    ————-
    Dumba
    Borodin
    Seeler
    Prosser
    Spurgeon
    Soucy
    ————
    Chiarot
    Trouba
    Buff
    Moreissey
    Myers
    Morrow

  30. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Munny: There’s a difference though between having a right hand man who acts as your conscience when decision-making, and having a couple of people who technically rank higher than you, and with their own direct conduit to the owner, scrutinize your decision-making.

    – exactly. If we are believe bob this is the chain of command as per his presser: “chia comes up with a trade idea that he goes to gretz and Lowe and then I take it to the boss”

    – was also thinking about that red wine summit. It’s a huge betrayal within the organization for that to come out. Some factions are rightly pissed with the obc role given the Coffey story. The divisions must run deep for a party to share this. One would he highly resentful of this arrangement in their own workforce : a bunch of big ego guys that were part of the gang years ago still on the payroll and partying and part of the ops while the others work hard in good faith and see this hybrid structure

    – whenever chia gets replaced that new guy will have the chance to really clean slate

  31. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Bag of Pucks,

    There are lots of extremely successful individuals throughout history that were very egotistical. In fact it’s a trait. But it is a double edged sword.

    But here’s the thing; those types don’t usually work well together, unless to further their own agenda. It certainly wouldn’t be from altruism or the greater good.

    *chants ‘The Greater Good’*

    Agreed. Ego is a necessary trait for success, but if we’re talking ‘checks and balances,’ it’s absolutely a trait that requires mitigation.

  32. tileguy says:

    Is the smell of Katz money that powerful?

  33. Woogie63 says:

    Bag of Pucks: The top companies that truly dominate their industries were/are led by visionary leaders. Jobs, Musk, Brin/Page, Benioff, etc.

    Consensus management is the norm in the real world because of competition for the talent pool. Realistically for instance, most Edmonton companies are not going to be able to attract a Fortune 500 calibre CEO.

    The NHL does not have this issue. 31 teams and hundreds of GM candidates.

    Sam Pollock. Jerry West. Bill Belichik. Glen Sather. Get a smart guy and let him make the decisions. This is a proven model in professional sports if you want to win multiple championships.

    Sam Pollock, Jerry West and Glen Sather’s world were a different place and time, and maybe supports my point better than your point.

  34. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woogie63: Sam Pollock, Jerry West and Glen Sather’s world were a different place and time, and maybe supports my point better than your point.

    How do you mitigate against mediocrity in your model? For example, let’s say decisions are made by 4 key execs. 3 of them decent and one exceptional. Unfortunately, the 3 blind mice regularly outvote the visionary because his/her ideas seem too ‘out of the box.’

    It’s like that TV commercial where the woman envisions a subscription streaming model and her boss replies, “How is that going to sell more CDs?”

    Fuck groupthink. Embrace evolution and let the smartest ideas prevail.

  35. geowal says:

    The difference between the two schools of thought discussed above here (good to have secondary opinions (sure you want to do that?) and not having a leash imposed comes from rank/role of the voices
    Chiarelli should in fact have sources of info, idea and discussion on moves….this should come from assistant GM(s) whom he no doubt would be in charge of and have final say but have a healthy collaborative relationship with. It should NOT come from voices in the attic, the VPs of keeping it real, the figureheads of the past. He shouldn’t run one damn thing by them. Present his plans and updates to BobNic as requested, and go do your job.

  36. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    What would you prefer for this organization: that Chia alone made the Reinhart, Hall and Eberle trades, or that the organization agreed with all of those moves?

    I’d want to know Chia was responsible for the moves when I fired him.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: He should have that now, doubt there’s a lack of input from Keith Gretzky and that group.

    Ok, I think I get your take on it now.

    That makes it more clear.

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    geowal:
    The difference between the two schools of thought discussed above here (good to have secondary opinions (sure you want to do that?) and not having a leash imposed comes from rank/role of the voices
    Chiarelli should in fact have sources of info, idea and discussion on moves….this should come from assistant GM(s) whom he no doubt would be in charge of and have final say but have a healthy collaborative relationship with. It should NOT come from voices in the attic, the VPs of keeping it real, the figureheads of the past. He shouldn’t run one damn thing by them. Present his plans and updates to BobNic as requested, and go do your job.

    That makes sense.

  39. geowal says:

    Munny: There’s a difference though between having a right hand man who acts as your conscience when decision-making, and having a couple of people who technically rank higher than you, and with their own direct conduit to the owner, scrutinize your decision-making.

    Bingo. A more succinct way of putting my previous post.

  40. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – exactly. If we are believe bob this is the chain of command as per his presser: “chia comes up with a trade idea that he goes to gretz and Lowe and then I take it to the boss”

    – was also thinking about that red wine summit. It’s a huge betrayal within the organization for that to come out.Some factions are rightly pissed with the obc role given the Coffey story.The divisions must run deep for a party to share this. One would he highly resentful of this arrangement in their own workforce : a bunch of big ego guys that were part of the gang years ago still on the payroll and partying and part of the ops while the others work hard in good faith and see this hybrid structure

    – whenever chia gets replaced that new guy will have the chance to really clean slate

    OBC isn’t going anywhere unless they get bored IMO. Or sick of the mudslinging at them, but I think they are too insular and self confident to hear much of it.

  41. StixMalone says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: whenever chia gets replaced that new guy will have the chance to really clean slate
      (Quote)  (Reply)

    We thought the same when Chia was hired. I doubt the new guy will be able to empty the skeletons in the closet either……

  42. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny: There’s a difference though between having a right hand man who acts as your conscience when decision-making, and having a couple of people who technically rank higher than you, and with their own direct conduit to the owner, scrutinize your decision-making.

    Pushmi-pullyu’s don’t run fast.

  43. danny says:

    There’s a reddit AMA with the Houston Rockets GM on the front page. It’s pretty interesting to read an active GM candidly taking and answering questions from the general public. It’s worth checking out. One question I thought would be interesting to this blog. A user asked if he reads the Internet in regards to making decisions. His response:

    I read blogs all the time as you can easily get stuck in groupthink inside organizations. I have a MLB GM friend who consistently reads the dedicated fan blogs and learns things as well. Bimathug https://twitter.com/BimaThug for example knows the NBA CBA as well as almost anyone in the world.

  44. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: I’d want to know Chia was responsible for the moves when I fired him.

    – This gets to the heart of the matter. Those who are more “sympathetic” to Chia (like myself who in day 1 said OBC = danger, or clearly Bob, who has kept tabs on every move within the organization since Chia was hired), might see things with more nuance than just “Fire Chia”

    – Technically Chia is “responsible” as he’s nominally in charge.

    – It is perhaps convenient of me (more sympathetic and aligned with Chia’s logic to date), to assume that some of the moves that are cited as fireable offences: Griff, Hall, Ebs, weren’t really Chia’s call, and/or heavily influenced by others at the table.

    – Practically though it must be. Becasue if you wanted to build a case on firing Chia based on those moves, they would have done it already. But clearly those moves were supported by others at the table. It’s harder to fire someone for trades that you don’t like, when you a guy like Bob, who has the ear of owner, reminding him of how exactly each of these moves was made.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63,

    Starting defensemen last night
    Winnipeg looks very good, but are the Oilers with a healthy Sekera and Klefbom, that wildly different than the rest?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse – Actual NHL Top 4 RHD
    Sekera-Benning

    I truly believe you can win a conference final with that group.

  46. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Depends on who is the mystery defenseman and what we give up to get him

  47. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woogie63:
    Starting defensemen last night
    Winnipeg looks very good, but are the Oilers with a healthy Sekera and Klefbom, that wildly different than the rest?

    Phaneuf
    Colin
    Fantenberg
    Martinez
    LaDue
    Gravel
    —————
    McNabb
    Engelland
    Miller
    Merrill
    Theodore
    Schmidt
    ————-
    Gudas
    Sanheim
    Manning
    MacDonald
    Ghost
    Provorov
    ————-
    Rubwedal
    Maatta
    Shultz
    Oleksiak
    Dumoulin
    Letang
    ————-
    Dumba
    Borodin
    Seeler
    Prosser
    Spurgeon
    Soucy
    ————
    Chiarot
    Trouba
    Buff
    Moreissey
    Myers
    Morrow

    This is exactly why jumping the gun isn’t worth it. Buyouts, trading the future because you can’t wait one year with a fairly deep D group is counterproductive.

    When Russell and Sekera are moveable get value for them and bolster the org. Fill in with what you can for low cost or available money in the mean time.

    I remain convinced consistency in goal is the main issue. Talbot is good, but not all the time, and somebody needs to be able to play 20-30 games at .910 or better so they can stay in the hunt. Maybe more if Talbot comes in stone cold again.

    Talbot may be overplayed or this may be him, a good but streaky goalie with prolonged slumps.

    Also this is a young team and each year the players will get more rounded, even with the ups and downs different players will have. They will also be physically stronger for the guys in their early 20s.

    Between organic improvement and health, the depth increasing on the farm to where there are reasonable players at most positions to call up if needed, I see a solid if not Cup year ahead, IF there is adequate relief for Talbot.

    Sure I’d love Trouba, Pesce, Manson, Doughty, Karlsson, Carlson, Letang, but we can’t always have what we want, and chasing whales has proven to turn out more costly than helpful for an awful lot of teams.

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Depends on who is the mystery defenseman and what we give up to get him

    True.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – This gets to the heart of the matter.Those who are more “sympathetic” to Chia (like myself who in day 1 said OBC = danger, or clearly Bob, who has kept tabs on every move within the organization since Chia was hired), might see things with more nuance than just “Fire Chia”

    – Technically Chia is “responsible” as he’s nominally in charge.

    – It is perhaps convenient of me (more sympathetic and aligned with Chia’s logic to date), to assume that some of the moves that are cited as fireable offences: Griff, Hall, Ebs, weren’t really Chia’s call, and/or heavily influenced by others at the table.

    – Practically though it must be.Becasue if you wanted to build a case on firing Chia based on those moves, they would have done it already.But clearly those moves were supported by others at the table.It’s harder to fire someone for trades that you don’t like, when you a guy like Bob, who has the ear of owner, reminding him of how exactly each of these moves was made.

    Agree on all points. Not firing Chiarelli, in my opinion, may come down to the owner not wanting to pay PC while bringing in another general manager to replace him and double down on the money. I don’t believe it’s the end of the world, and do believe he can recover the roster. That’s not the same as saying he’s earned the right to come back.

  50. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Woogie63,

    Starting defensemen last night
    Winnipeg looks very good, but are the Oilers with a healthy Sekera and Klefbom, that wildly different than the rest?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse – Actual NHL Top 4 RHD
    Sekera-Benning

    I truly believe you can win a conference final with that group.

    Me as well.

    If Chia can find that player that isn’t on the radar ‘yet’ at a reasonable cost I’m all for it. A young player better overall than Benning.

    I’m not for an asset gutting again. How much would you pay?

    BTW, did you have interest in checking out Grabner’s numbers?

  51. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    “What a way to run a railroad.”

    Blissfully succinct.

    I will trot that out on the job someday.

    My usual quip is, “What kind of dog and pony show are they running around here, anyways?”

  52. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: Agree on all points. Not firing Chiarelli, in my opinion, may come down to the owner not wanting to pay PC while bringing in another general manager to replace him and double down on the money. I don’t believe it’s the end of the world, and do believe he can recover the roster. That’s not the same as saying he’s earned the right to come back.

    – Agree: if this organization had a stable past, Chia would be much more likely to be fired

    – They could hire a rookie GM who is happy to take job, and won’t question OBC status-quo

    – A really successful available GM that has options: unless he can hire/fire who he wants, he’s going to go elsewhere. McD notwithstanding

    – Hire a young hotshot GM with no experience: he’s going to take the job despite the flags

  53. digger50 says:

    Lately I hear what a great person Tmac is. This is nice and you think okay……..

    But then I watch some post game pressers, particularly at the start of this year. Listen to him throw his players under thebus then go on a bag skate. Nice guy aside, Oilers are better replacing him. Almost universal now nobody thinks this this will happen.

  54. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Actual NHL Top 4 RHD

    Word on the street is, you can get one for an Adam Henrique or Evander Kane level player.

  55. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wish we knew what conversation they had with other GMs last year. Did they make an offer on Colin Miller like we wanted them to? We all know Chia is a drunk river boat gambler and is active. Wonder what trades he was working on

  56. jtblack says:

    GROUPTHINK:

    Watch the PC video when him and his Boston Lackies discuss trading Tyler Seguin. Its on you tube

    Basically Peter starts off with False Narratives and then Looks at his henchman for validation. I believe Cam Neely was one of the henchmem.

    Essentially PC would say something like “Tyler is very immature and I dont see that changing.” Then his Idiots, or braintrust, pound the table and say “yah, yah.”

    A braintrust or Assitant GM only offer value if they are willing to give their “HONEST” opinion; rather than merely falling in line by agreeing with the boss.

    That video should scare all; as it probably happened in some capacity with Hall & Eberle. Its also probably the reason the OBC MIGHT have imolemented a higher sign off. PC is very persuasive and they dont want him fooling his henchmen anymore. If he fools his henchmen AND the OBC then thats pure evil Genius by PC.

  57. Pescador says:

    Munny: There’s a difference though between having a right hand man who acts as your conscience when decision-making, and having a couple of people who technically rank higher than you, and with their own direct conduit to the owner, scrutinize your decision-making.

    Boom!
    Issue meet Nutshell

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168:
    I was wondering why Jesse wasn’t sent down to Bakersfield after the Oiler season was done? or was this an oversight? Or is he participating in the worlds?

    He’s not eligible – they would have had to have done a transaction at the deadline to put him on the Bakersfield roster (and then bring him back).

    I don’t believe they did that.

    I’m not sure why not, I do think he could have benefited from some extra games in the AHL at thee end of the year – if nothing else, it could have served to increase his confidence if he produced a few points.

  59. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    digger50,

    – Kurt has a good piece up. The part about the assistant coaches being good family people really reasonates. It’s easy for us to “fire” this guy and that guy, and of course its a business, but the reality of the personal relationships within an organization is often over-looked by us. Being a mid-level pro on a team that does poorly, often ends up costing your career:

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/at-the-cult-of-hockey-coaching-changes-are-imminent-behind-the-edmonton-oilers-bench

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors play their last game tonight – here is hoping that guys like Marody, Benson, Vesel and Samorukov continue their strong starts to their pro careers with a nice final game.

    I am hoping Vesel gets an ELC in the next few days.

    Swift Current plays tonight as well with a chance to finish off the series in 6 – Stuart Skinner coming of another wonderful performance last night.

  61. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    digger50,

    – Kurt has a good piece up.The part about the assistant coaches being good family people really reasonates.It’s easy for us to “fire” this guy and that guy, and of course its a business, but the reality of the personal relationships within an organization is often over-looked by us.Being a mid-level pro on a team that does poorly, often ends up costing your career:

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/at-the-cult-of-hockey-coaching-changes-are-imminent-behind-the-edmonton-oilers-bench

    It is an unfortunate side of high comp jobs. On the other hand finding coaches that are the best fit for the core would be nice. I like Cups. Connor needs more than Kevin.

  62. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: Agree on all points. Not firing Chiarelli, in my opinion, may come down to the owner not wanting to pay PC while bringing in another general manager to replace him and double down on the money. I don’t believe it’s the end of the world, and do believe he can recover the roster. That’s not the same as saying he’s earned the right to come back.

    Add to that the fact that the results at the end of the 14/15 ‘forensic audit’ were; This organization suffers from a lack of Continuity.
    This was part of the presentation to Katz. Pretty sure
    That’s all we heard coming from the Oilers brass.
    Now that their jobs are being questioned, they absolutely will be championing that concept all over again.

  63. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It is an unfortunate side of high comp jobs. On the other hand finding coaches that are the best fit for the core would be nice. I like Cups. Connor needs more than Kevin.

    We dont need “Good Guys” as coaches. Bowman was not well liked. Steve Jobs was not well liked. I grew up in Banff, Ssther was not the best recieved. Bottom line is the Oilers need the best COACHES. Not the best family guys.

  64. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wish we knew what conversation they had with other GMs last year.Did they make an offer on Colin Miller like we wanted them to?We all know Chia is a drunk river boat gambler and is active.Wonder what trades he was working on

    If I had to guess:
    Klefbom and the first for a second pairing RH PP QB
    Tyson Barrie
    Fuck me

  65. russ99 says:

    This season makes me wonder if we made a mistake moving our AHL team to Bakersfield.

    All the other California AHL teams play in or in a suburb of a large city, except for the Flames in Stockton.

    Bakersfield was an ECHL city and may not have the fanbase or amenities of what’s needed for an AHL team, especially after reading that ECHL story about what players need to deal with in The Athletic.

    The travel alone isn’t the biggest consideration.

    Having full ownership means we messed much up of this ourselves, but thinking of Puljujarvi’s distaste of playing there maybe we’re putting ourselves behind the 8-ball by location alone, and young player adjustments to a bigger league are hard enough.

  66. leadfarmer says:

    Pescador,

    It seems like we don’t go after the guys that may be available until it’s too late. Like Barrie and Dumba.

  67. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: This is exactly why jumping the gun isn’t worth it. Buyouts, trading the future because you can’t wait one year with a fairly deep D group is counterproductive.

    When Russell and Sekera are moveable get value for them and bolster the org. Fill in with what you can for low cost or available money in the mean time.

    I remain convinced consistency in goal is the main issue. Talbot is good, but not all the time, and somebody needs to be able to play 20-30 games at .910 or better so they can stay in the hunt. Maybe more if Talbot comes in stone cold again.

    Talbot may be overplayed or this may be him, a good but streaky goalie with prolonged slumps.

    Also this is a young team and each year the players will get more rounded, even with the ups and downs different players will have. They will also be physically stronger for the guys in their early 20s.

    Between organic improvement and health, the depth increasing on the farm to where there are reasonable players at most positions to call up if needed, I see a solid if not Cup year ahead, IF there is adequate relief for Talbot.

    Sure I’d love Trouba, Pesce, Manson, Doughty, Karlsson, Carlson, Letang, but we can’t always have what we want, and chasing whales has proven to turn out more costly than helpful for an awful lot of teams.

    I couldn’t agree more.
    If we can get a solid 2RD, AND FIT HIM UNDER THE CAP, for secondary assets, then by all means do it. I just don’t think it’s realistic so I would wait a year.
    Basically I would be willing to trade anyone except Mcdavid, Draisatll, Nuge, JP, Klefbom, Larrson, Nurse, 2018 1st.
    Doesn’t leave much for trade assets, does it?

  68. meanashell11 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It is an unfortunate side of high comp jobs. On the other hand finding coaches that are the best fit for the core would be nice. I like Cups. Connor needs more than Kevin.

    Happens all the time. In 2008 I was on an H-1B visa when UBS decided to shut my business. I owned a home, had kids in school (middle of the school year). I received a very nice letter from the US government telling me and my family we had two weeks to leave the country. I appealed. But then left to work elsewhere. My wife went to university (she was 45 years old) and got a student visa so she and the kids could stay. I eventually moved back when another bank sponsored me. I then got a green card. Two years after I appealed and now had a green card I received another nice letter saying I could stay until the kids finished the 2008 spring semester but then we needed to leave. The US is f%cked up………

  69. russ99 says:

    who: I couldn’t agree more.
    If we can get a solid 2RD, AND FIT HIM UNDER THE CAP,for secondary assets, then by all means do it. I just don’t think it’s realistic so I would wait a year.
    Basically I would be willing to trade anyone except Mcdavid, Draisatll, Nuge, JP,Klefbom, Larrson, Nurse, 2018 1st.
    Doesn’t leave much for trade assets, does it?

    The way I see it, Sekera and Russell’s NMCs decreasing-lapsing next summer are to pay for Puljujarvi’s contract and Talbot or another goalie. As a cap team for the foreseeable future, we need to start thinking that way,

    I also wonder if this is why the Oilers are willing to move the first pick? At 9, the player selected will likely need another year in juniors or overseas, so it’s two NHL years with high bonuses then we need to pay another player. All teams plan the cap out at least three years.

    A trade down to a low 1st or high second helps us acquire an NHL asset and gives us a good prospect with less bonus/contract concerns, and maybe we can stop stepping on our own feet rushing draftees to the bigs.

  70. leadfarmer says:

    Wow a first round game on NBC in the evening. Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen that

  71. leadfarmer says:

    russ99,

    I can’t imagine a player I would want being available for our 9th OV and how we could make the cap work without trading Nuge. Just stay put. There’s always a player that drops unexpectedly at the draft

  72. anjinsan says:

    This is excerpted from Black Dog Pat’ recent article at Athletic…

    I wonder what Daryl Katz thinks. I wonder what he says to Bob Nicholson when he sees that when Peter Chiarelli came on board the Oilers had just finished a season with 62 points. 62! How awful is that? Sixth place out of seven teams.

    And they brought in Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan and in the three years since they:

    drafted Connor McDavid and Jesse Puljujarvi
    Spent 16 million dollars on three unrestricted free agents and gave them no-move clauses to boot
    Traded Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz, Nail Yakupov, Patrick Maroon after a 27 goal season, a 1st round pick in 2015, 2 2nds in 2015 and 2 3rds in 2015

    And for all of those players, those picks and that money they have, hold on, math isn’t my strong suit, I wish Tyler Dellow and his slide rule were here. Carry the five, multiply by the square root of the hypotenuse of the isosceles triangle and add the Bettman loser points and let’s see …

    They finished with 78 points.

    I wonder what Daryl Katz thinks when he looks at all of the talent and picks and money squandered and sees an improvement of 16 points. And this is with a kid who has done something that nobody has done since Wayne Gretzky himself.

    What does Bob Nicholson really think? Does he worry for his own job because he has had a hand in this as much as Peter Chiarelli? Or is he as disgusted as I hope that Katz would be?

    Does he look at the list of players and picks shipped out of town and the money spent and wonder why the D is still the top priority to be fixed? Does he wonder how a team in such cap trouble next season is so far from being a contender and probably cannot add a difference maker without shipping quality out or bamboozling someone into taking Milan Lucic (without giving up Yamamoto or Puljujarvi to make it happen)?

  73. Brantford Boy says:

    Was watching the Jets game last night, and the broadcasters said that 16 of Winnipeg’s players in the game were drafted by the organization… crazy… draft – develop – patience, if only… so long JP, because Oilers… I imagine the Jets roster gets the balance photo… so close but so far…

  74. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack: We dont need “Good Guys” as coaches. Bowman was not well liked.Steve Jobs was not well liked.I grew up in Banff, Ssther was not the best recieved.Bottom line is the Oilers need the best COACHES.Not the best family guys.

    I agree they don’t need good guys. I want a coach that can implement his system but relates in a modern way. Still holds everyone accountable.

    Still Hitchcock changed his approach in the last few years he says in a retirement piece I read, that players now don’t need to a drill sargeant like the old days of larrikin players carousing till all hours, being half pissed at practices etc. They are motivated and take it more seriously.

    Of course they make a whack more money than in the glory days outside of Gretzky. More at stake.

    I don’t know what these coaches are doing, but clearly they aren’t connecting with the team. Burgers mentioned beating the team down at the beginning of the year.

    This is a different generation of people. I wonder if the approach is off. McLellan has the brains but so do all other high level coaches. Motivation and cohesiveness are just as important or more so given many systems work. It’s finding the right fit.

  75. Confused says:

    I know it’s been a hard year but now is the time for some parience.

    That means for perhaps the first time ever we need to establish a full pipeline of propests.

    The full pipeline gives you options beyond gutting the team.

    If Russell waives for Western Canada, Myers as a partial Peg cap dump. If not,let’s go nontraditional, Khl, shl, ufas …… people on one year show me.

    Next year dump Russell and Sekera and you have 10M, to get the long-term guy.

    You have Bear and Berglund pushing from below, not enough? Draft a RHD 2018 R1, chrst draft another inR2 or R3.

  76. Bryan says:

    Winnipeg’s approach seems to be as sound as anyone’s now. It hasn’t always been easy for them to remain patient but they have made very few trades and have drafted well and allowed their talent to develop the right way. Moving out Evander Kane was a major deal but Cheveldayoff won that with the added benefit of it being a case of addition by subtraction for the dressing room. They will have salary cap issues in the future as any successful team does but they are positioned with a ton of young talent to replace the players that become too pricey. They needed goaltending to become a dangerous team and now that they have it it could be spring to remember in Winnipeg.

  77. digger50 says:

    anjinsan,

    Brilliant

  78. digger50 says:

    jtblack:
    GROUPTHINK:

    Watch the PC video when him and his Boston Lackies discuss trading Tyler Seguin.Its on you tube

    Basically Peter starts off with False Narratives and then Looks at his henchman for validation. I believe Cam Neely was one of the henchmem.

    Essentially PC would say something like “Tyler is very immature and I dont see that changing.” Then his Idiots, or braintrust, pound the table and say “yah, yah.”

    A braintrust or Assitant GM only offer value if they are willing to give their “HONEST” opinion; rather than merely fallingin line by agreeing with the boss.

    That video should scare all; as it probably happened in some capacity with Hall & Eberle.Its also probably the reason the OBC MIGHT have imolemented a higher sign off.PC is very persuasive and they dont want him fooling his henchmen anymore.If he fools his henchmen AND the OBC then thats pure evil Genius by PC.

    I remember this video well – all should view it

    I was also shocked at the sort or bumbling, support your boss without thought type comments and Peters lacklustre effort on the phone.

  79. Wilde says:

    anjinsan,

    Not terribly tasteful to grab a chunk that big of a paywalled article on the day of publication, I don’t think.

  80. russ99 says:

    Bryan:
    Winnipeg’s approach seems to be as sound as anyone’s now.It hasn’t always been easy for them to remain patient but they have made very few trades and have drafted well and allowed their talent to develop the right way.Moving out Evander Kane was a major deal but Cheveldayoff won that with the added benefit of it being a case of addition by subtraction for the dressing room.They will have salary cap issues in the future as any successful team does but they are positioned with a ton of young talent to replace the players that become too pricey.They needed goaltending to become a dangerous team and now that they have it it could be spring to remember in Winnipeg.

    This is the core problem. Until last year, we haven’t drafted especially well in decades, other than the high picks and some of those are suspect.

    But I think we can improve the NHL roster and do a better job at acquiring and developing prospects at the same time, it’s not an either or proposition for most other NHL clubs.

    1. Flush the old boys. Looking for the next Petersen, Pisani or Lucic isn’t helping. We need new ideas in player development and the minor league teams we control. Look at Houston in baseball. Part of their success was from embracing new ideas that the old guard hated.

    2. Watch the tape and figure out what we have in our RFAs. Bringing everybody back just because isn’t a good plan. Bring back those who have shown something and can improve. Trade the rights of the rest for prospects or picks. Standing pat on the “94s” was a huge mistake this summer, let’s not make it twice.

    3. Find value in FA. Don’t spend $5M for Grabner, spend $5M to sign 3 players that can play a good NHL game every night. Don’t chase stats, bring in players that are good at specific things. Nobody is good at everything, even McDavid, yet. LOL

    4. If you have to make a trade, make it from a position of strength and get bidders playing against themselves. Big trades are easier in June than February, so i hope we can finally learn this. Trading Klefbom now isn’t doing this, unless there’s some chronic health concern.

  81. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I agree they don’t need good guys. I want a coach that can implement his system but relates in a modern way. Still holds everyone accountable.

    Still Hitchcock changed his approach in the last few years he says in a retirement piece I read, that players now don’t need to a drill sargeant like the old days of larrikin players carousing till all hours, being half pissed at practices etc. They are motivated and take it more seriously.

    Of course they make a whack more money than in the glory days outside of Gretzky. More at stake.

    I don’t know what these coaches are doing, but clearly they aren’t connecting with the team. Burgers mentioned beating the team down at the beginning of the year.

    This is a different generation of people. I wonder if the approach is off. McLellan has the brains but so do all other high level coaches. Motivation and cohesiveness are just as important or more so given many systems work. It’s finding the right fit.

    Most important is to bring in the BEST Coaches. regardless of their “approach”. I agree that TMac doesnt seem to have a good relationship with the players overall

  82. anjinsan says:

    Wilde,

    I weighed that it wasn’t right and it’s not something I’d make any habit of. The point is so strong and visceral that I thought it worth pasting here in this forum because I think a lot of good will and good faith on the part of fans is being taken advantage of great expense.

  83. Bryan says:

    russ99,

    I agree that now is not the time to panic. During the summer the goaltending position can be solidified fairly cheaply and then patience should be exercised when it comes to reshaping the roster. Better health and maturity will be a great aid as well as improvements to the coaching of special teams. Trading the first round pick would be a mistake with another expansion draft on the horizon. Allow the depth to grow and keep an ear to the ground….situations will arise that can be taken advantage of. The trick is to not be the one being taken advantage of.

  84. russ99 says:

    anjinsan:
    Wilde,

    I weighed that it wasn’t right and it’s not something I’d make any habit of.The point is so strong and visceral that I thought it worth pasting here in this forum because I think a lot of good will and good faith on the part of fans is being taken advantage of great expense.

    I’m so tired of the visceral. Chia’s coming back next year. Our fans need to have a focus behind their rage or they look like raving lunatics complaining about everything and anything.

    There are things to look forward to, the McDavid core is the best collection of talent in the league under 23. If the Oilers are so broken down and odious, find a different team that does what you want. This idea that we’re supposed to win the Stanley Cup just because of McDavid is ludicrous.

    I think we’ll make the playoffs next year, and this is similar to other struggles young teams go through before they find their way.

  85. leadfarmer says:

    Bryan,

    Winnipeg did the Tambellini method of rebuild. Keep doing nothing until the team is magically good. Kane asked out and had to be traded. Other moves were expiring UFA for futures

  86. HALFWALL says:

    russ99,

    Great post!

    The other key question of the day is:. Is there a healthy decision process in place to execute to this (i.e. decision authority/accountability, skilled/trusted advisors providing input and feedback, good decision criteria, good information, etc.).

  87. Halfwise says:

    Here’s what I believe:
    1. Winning the McDeity lottery panicked the Oiler organization because it was the end of the easy excuses that had worked for a decade for the OBC. Maybe the League leaned on them, maybe CMD’s agent. Dunno. Big disturbance in The Force.

    2. So they went out and bought some instant credibility behind the bench and with Chia. They did not actually know how to work with outsiders, but that wasn’t the point. They had to get the League off their back.

    3. Then when it became clear a Dougie Hamilton trade could not work, the entire Oiler brain trust panicked themselves into the picks-for-Reinhart trade. (KL had rehearsed a similar move with Pronger in the summer of 2006, and no one fired him for it then).

    4. There is no way that Chia was even 50% to blame for that appalling waste of assets; everyone else at Kingsway knew GR better than Chia did.

    5. Most people who are good at what they do want control. The value of a good boss should be to provide insight, not oversight. But some bosses still want to do their own barking even though they just paid good money to buy a dog.

    6. Because the OBC had so little experience with working with outsiders, they didn’t know what kind of rope Chia thought he would need. And he didn’t know what rope they were willing to give him. They had to start the relationship before they could understand it.

    7. Chia’s weaknesses and the OBC’s weaknesses do not cancel each other out.

    8. Chia’s weaknesses and TMac’s weaknesses do not cancel each other out.

    9. The 17-18 record reflects all of this plus something stupid in the PK system, no real Sekera and a bad start for Talbot.

    The on-ice product ought to revert to its mean, but the team won’t be elite until the self-reinforcing management weaknesses are dealt with.

    Just cutting ties with the OBC would make a difference. But you’d still have to deal with the likelihood that TMac coaching and Chia rosters have not been as good together as we want them to be.

    I have no evidence for any of this, merely an old pair of eyes and a bunch of decades studying the habits of humans in organizations.

  88. Ryan says:

    Bryan,

    Listening to Ryan Rishaug talk to Jason Strudwick yesterday on the 1260, Rishaug made it sound like trading the 2018 first is a foregone conclusion.

    Agree that it’s a mistake though if I were in Chiarelli’s shoes, i’d deal it too.

  89. VOR says:

    I’m confused. Shouldn’t we be talking about the quality, skills, and depth of the management team as it impacts there decision making rather than the Oilers management chart. Everybody has biases and core incompetencies. But the right team makes all its members look like geniuses. Do the Oilers have the right management team?

  90. HALFWALL says:

    russ99,

    Agree with this too.

    There’s too many things we fans don’t exactly know and too many good things we do know to be so “righteously angry” and with the certitude I’ve seen.

  91. Cassandra says:

    Chiarelli has a long and established track record prior to Edmonton.

    The terrible moves he has made in Edmonton are straight out of that playbook

    There has been almost nothing in common with how Edmonton has been run under Chiarelli compared to previous eras.

    Given that, it is unintelligible and a mark of extreme prejudice to suggest that Chiarelli hasn’t been the one making the decisions the past three years.

    Finally, Spector’s hit piece clearly came from within the organization. Whoever leaked it is a vicious scumbag who will do anything to keep their job.

    My inference is the story came from either Chiarelli or Nicholson. If so, Chiarelli is not simply terrible at his job, but is an awful person.

  92. Wilde says:

    russ99,

    What’s tiring is the amount of measured, thoughtful analysis that gets characterised as ravings of a lunatic or some other equally condescending misrepresentation.

    It’d do everyone a lot of good if upon disagreement they sought to contend with the most formidable version of the opposing viewpoint, instead of assuming it is clouded by both emotion and poor logic.

    Example: the quote(paraphrased) saying that a 16 point improvement falls well short of reasonable expectations based on the costs

    Your translation: We have to win the Stanley Cup because of McDavid.

    You took a wrong turn, and then put a jetpack on. That’s nowhere near what was said.

  93. Wilde says:

    Also, we are not at all on track with other young teams after they drafted their superstar. Toronto’s in year two. Check out WSH and PIT’s 3rd season out.

    Bottom third in the league after 3 years of generational player’s ELC is uncharted territory.

  94. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra,

    – Vicious scumbag is fairly extreme. There is no doubt of the veracity of the wine summits and it’s a scathing inditement of the obc.

    – it’s also a fireable offence and a reflection of the state of affairs in the organization that an insider would have to betray the organization to such a level

    – it’s also the only tact that might be effective in getting the gm to punt the obc.

    -in the corporate world this kind of betrayal happens all the time – the stakes are high for all the parties win or lose.

  95. Wayne Kenov says:

    russ99: I’m so tired of the visceral. Chia’s coming back next year. Our fans need to have a focus behind their rage or they look like raving lunatics complaining about everything and anything.

    There are things to look forward to, the McDavid core is the best collection of talent in the league under 23. If the Oilers are so broken down and odious, find a different team that does what you want. This idea that we’re supposed to win the Stanley Cup just because of McDavid is ludicrous.

    I think we’ll make the playoffs next year, and this is similar to other struggles young teams go through before they find their way.

    Why do the optimists have to be so out of touch with reality. Even if you love our young core, they are not as good as Winnipeg or Toronto just to name a couple. You could probably argue several other teams such as Buffalo, Philly, Arizona and Vancouver are ahead, although their players are still establishing themselves. We have not made a lot of hay since drafting McDavid, with JP learning to doggy paddle, Bear being a longshot finding his way, and Kailer being the only other prospect of note. We are banking on longshots when there are other teams with legit prospects. As of September we were ranked 10. https://dobberprospects.com/2017-organizational-prospects-rankings/

    Alternatively, this site ranks just players in the system, which is a good snapshot of where we are since drafting Connor. (21) https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-best-farm-systems-2017-ranking/

  96. Wilde says:

    Cassandra,

    My favourite suspect, for maximum soap opera points, is K. Gretzky.

  97. StixMalone says:

    Wilde:
    Cassandra,

    My favourite suspect, for maximum soap opera points, is K. Gretzky.

    I’ll pick Professor Plum with the candlestick in the library….

  98. Georges says:

    Cassandra,

    It’s good you’re posting again. And, with PC guaranteed to return, you’ll have lots to post about. Yay!

    About vicious scumbags: have you ever encountered a person IRL that merited such a description? Do you meet the type all the time or did you gasp when you had that one unforgettable, out of category experience? What’s the known population of Vicious Scumbagville in your world, and how far down the highway would you say it is from home?

  99. Cassandra says:

    Georges:
    Cassandra,

    It’s good you’re posting again. And, with PC guaranteed to return, you’ll have lots to post about. Yay!

    About vicious scumbags: have you ever encountered a person IRL that merited such a description? Do you meet the type all the time or did you gasp when you had that one unforgettable, out of category experience? What’s the known population of Vicious Scumbagville in your world, and how far down the highway would you say it is from home?

    This is a good question. And you are right to point out how this medium brings out my righteous anger and taste for hyperbole.

    However, in this particular case I have never met anyone in person who would use the press for the purpose of this kind of premeditated character assassination just to protect themselves from their own mistakes.

    This makes whoever leaked the story worse than the worse person I have ever met. Now I don’t hang out in the rarefied circles of corporate climbers where this might be more normal.

    Really, the Spector story is way beyond the pale, and without precedent.

  100. VOR says:

    I have thought about this a lot and concluded every Oiler fan should be praying the next announcement from the Oilers is a new hiring. A management consultant whose job is to figure out who the useful parts of the management team are and who is an obstruction or just dead wood. This person would then turf all the unwanted members of the team. Next he would hire talented new members of the management team that could bring real value to the organization. And then he’d leave.

    For this to work he’d have to be someone quite special. I kid. There is exactly one obvious name.

    You need a guy whose career has been about crushing superstar egos. You need a guy with a bunch of Stanley Cup rings. You need a guy whose built winning organizations. You need a guy who can recruit the very best AGMs from around the league. You need a guy every Oiler fan will agree is imminently qualified and utterly capable of firing the OBC if that is actually the best thing.

    Really you need a guy who has never claimed the smartest guy in the room, no just the biggest prick.

  101. HALFWALL says:

    Wilde,

    …because all those teams had better AHL and NHL depth and balance before their superstars got there. Add LA and CHI to the mix.

  102. Cassandra says:

    Wilde:
    Cassandra,

    My favourite suspect, for maximum soap opera points, is K. Gretzky.

    That would be juicy.

    But we know what is going to happen. The Oilers will be better this year, the bounces will turn, McDavid will be unleased, and the Pacific will be worse. I think they make the playoffs, and I think Chiarelli is “vindicated.” Meanwhile, they’ll have traded the first round pick, McDavid and Draisatl will be another year older, and they still won’t be a dominant team.

  103. HALFWALL says:

    HALFWALL:
    Wilde,

    …because all those teams had better AHL and NHL depth and balance before their superstars got there.Add LA and CHI to the mix.

    …and this doesn’t refute the original point – cup winners need both elite talent and cheap depth.

    The cup winners in the list tanked/rebuilt the right way. EDM, BUF, ARI tore it down and salted the earth.

  104. Side says:

    Cassandra:

    Given that, it is unintelligible and a mark of extreme prejudice to suggest that Chiarelli hasn’t been the one making the decisions the past three years.

    Speaking of unintelligible and extreme prejudice:

    “It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3
    I hate being right. I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.
    I make this vow. I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives. I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs. It they do, they would have made it anyway. It they don’t, it is his fault.
    I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup. If they do, it is in spite of this move.
    Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. Begone traitors. Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.”

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Me as well.

    If Chia can find that player that isn’t on the radar ‘yet’ at a reasonable cost I’m all for it. A young player better overall than Benning.

    I’m not for an asset gutting again. How much would you pay?

    BTW, did you have interest in checking out Grabner’s numbers?

    I’d pay quite a bit as I think its a critical hole. Depends on what’s coming back.

    Also,

    Here’s Grabner’s Relative Teammate CF% over the last 4 years: (aggregation of WOWY)
    Player Season RelT CF%
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2014-2015 -1.9
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2015-2016 -1.62
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2016-2017 -2.65
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2017-2018 -1.59

    Here’s Gragner’s Relative Teammate GF% over the last 4 years (aggregation of WOWY):
    Player Season RelT GF%
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2014-2015 2.22
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2015-2016 1.34
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2016-2017 10.68
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2017-2018 8.55

    Slight drag on possession and big boost to goal share.

    Played mostly 3rd line minutes so the difference between the two makes intuitive sense, but his last two years are way more than you’d expect just for QoC difference, meaning he’s probably making that difference.

    Funny thing is he had a sharp impact on Hayes and Miller this year for NYR and they do play 2nd line minutes. Both were over 10% better GF with him than without him.

    5v5 Points/60 last 4 years:

    Player Season P/60
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2014-2015 1.95
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2015-2016 0.91
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2016-2017 1.93
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2017-2018 1.49

    5v5 Primary Points/60 last 4 years:

    Player Season P1/60
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2014-2015 1.3
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2015-2016 0.7
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2016-2017 1.8
    MICHAEL.GRABNER 2017-2018 1.3

    Strictly on the numbers I see a top 9 player who has a history of the puck going in more often with him than without him.

    If you’re expecting a top 6 forward you’ll be disappointed, but if you expect what he is, its fine.

    His RelTGF% is very intriguing and if I were considering him I’d watch a lot of video to see what’s going on.

  106. Brantford Boy says:

    Wayne Kenov,

    Great post… I’m surprised were rated that high to be honest…

  107. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Woogie63,

    Starting defensemen last night
    Winnipeg looks very good, but are the Oilers with a healthy Sekera and Klefbom, that wildly different than the rest?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse – Actual NHL Top 4 RHD
    Sekera-Benning

    I truly believe you can win a conference final with that group.

    You know what I find really interesting is that of the top 6 scorers on Winnipeg, four are wingers, (including the 1st and 2nd leading scorers) one is a D man, and the other is a C…clearly they do it a little differently in Winnipeg

    of the top 4 D in Winnipeg, 2 are physical freaks…one clearly capable of actually ending lives with his hits…and the other 6’8″ with a massive reach and a decent skater

    3 of their top 4 D shoot right, Trouba is 6’3″ Morrisey a mere mortal at 6’…the 4 top D combined for 131 points this past year

    I am not sure that Edmonton’s D corps is even close to the quality found in Winnipeg

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Word on the street is, you can get one for an Adam Henrique or Evander Kane level player.

    One of my favorite RHD went for Jamie Freaking McGinn.

    True story.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Sure I’d love Trouba, Pesce, Manson, Doughty, Karlsson, Carlson, Letang, but we can’t always have what we want, and chasing whales has proven to turn out more costly than helpful for an awful lot of teams.

    I don’t think you need to aim that high.

    More often than not, you need to draft those guys.

    My list of targets who could fill that spot:

    Tanev, Gudas, Pysyk, Demers, maybe Petrovic.

    Maybe Fletcher will do something irrational when he’s out early the playoffs again and trade Dumba

    If Peter wasn’t paying $10MM to Lucic and Russell EDM could be a legitimate player for Carlson.

  110. Dustylegnd says:

    Here is another thing I find really interesting

    Nashville top 6 scorers, 3 centres, 2 D men, 1 winger

    Nashville top 4 D men combined for 178 points and Ellis only played 44 games

    I know Dellow has quite accurately determined that D men steal points from forwards, but I suppose that doesn’t matter id the D are really good at scoring points……isn’t the idea to score more than the other team no matter who scores the points?

  111. anjinsan says:

    Cassandra,

    If the Specter story was a leak (and that makes sense), then it came from a source that benefited from the leak. Guessing Chiarelli or Nicholson makes sense. Name-calling aside, it’s the stuff of political intrigue movies. Strongly suggests unhappy officers quarters, oh my!

  112. Brantford Boy says:

    Wayne Kenov,

    Great post… I’m surprised were rated that high to be honest…

    -Sorry if this is a double post… I don’t see it anywhere-

  113. Dustylegnd says:

    anjinsan:
    Cassandra,

    If the Specter story was a leak (and that makes sense), then it came from a source that benefited from the leak.Guessing Chiarelli or Nicholson makes sense.Name-calling aside, it’s the stuff of political intrigue movies.Strongly suggests unhappy officers quarters, oh my!

    God bless Spec for having the stones to write the story, it has to be more than conjecture on his part because if untrue or incorrect, he opens himself up to a world of pain

    I am assuming he has no relationship with the OBC mentioned in the story because he is now dead to them

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    I have thought about this a lot and concluded every Oiler fan should be praying the next announcement from the Oilers is a new hiring. A management consultant whose job is to figure out who the useful parts of the management team are and who is an obstruction or just dead wood. This person would then turf all the unwanted members of the team. Next he would hire talented new members of the management team that could bring real value to the organization. And then he’d leave.

    For this to work he’d have to be someone quite special. I kid. There is exactly one obvious name.

    You need a guy whose career has been about crushing superstar egos. You need a guy with a bunch of Stanley Cup rings. You need a guy whose built winning organizations. You need a guy who can recruit the very best AGMs from around the league. You need a guy every Oiler fan will agree is imminently qualified and utterly capable of firing the OBC if that is actually the best thing.

    Really you need a guy who has never claimed the smartest guy in the room, no just the biggest prick.

    Sather?

  115. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: One of my favorite RHD went for Jamie Freaking McGinn.

    True story.

    Forgot about Demers.

    I don’t like storytime anymore.

    HALFWALL:
    Wilde,

    …because all those teams had better AHL and NHL depth and balance before their superstars got there.Add LA and CHI to the mix.

    Yes, except we had even better collection of pieces than those teams before we traded them away, which is the reason why we are where we are.

    Toronto had a good top six centre, a goalscoring winger, two good young LHD, and another good young centre a year out from being an impact player, with another top winger also a year out from being an impact player.

    Edmonton had an elite all-world gamebreaking winger, good top six centre, a goalscoring winger, two good young LHD, another young centre a year out, and a second 1st round pick with several good prospects on the board <2 years out from being good players.

    And McDavid is also head and shoulders above Matthews, too. Toronto has done more with much less.

  116. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    If Peter wasn’t paying $10MM to Lucic and Russell EDM could be a legitimate player for Carlson.

    Now that is depressing fawk me

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dustylegnd: You know what I find really interesting is that of the top 6 scorers on Winnipeg, four are wingers, (including the 1st and 2nd leading scorers) one is a D man, and the other is a C…clearly they do it a little differently in Winnipeg

    of the top 4 D in Winnipeg, 2 are physical freaks…one clearly capable of actually ending lives with his hits…and the other 6’8″ with a massive reach and a decent skater

    3 of their top 4 D shoot right, Trouba is 6’3″ Morrisey a mere mortal at 6’…the 4 top D combined for 131 points this past year

    I am not sure that Edmonton’s D corps is even close to the quality found in Winnipeg

    I think that counting points is a poor method to evaluate a Dcorps.

    I prefer GF% and CF% contribution. Some Dmen are vampires and just points that a forward would otherwise get.

  118. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    But they’re good in the other zones so it’s not like you are playing a forward to play defense and paying him for those points

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Here is another thing I find really interesting

    Nashville top 6 scorers, 3 centres, 2 D men, 1 winger

    Nashville top 4 D men combined for 178 points and Ellis only played 44 games

    I know Dellow has quite accurately determined that D men steal points from forwards, but I suppose that doesn’t matter id the D are really good at scoring points……isn’t the idea to score more than the other team no matter who scores the points?

    Ah, you already mentioned that.

    Ha!!

    You make the great point that you need to score more than the opposition.

    Gimme a minutes and I’ll flesh out one team to show you what I mean.

  120. Dustylegnd says:

    VOR:
    I have thought about this a lot and concluded every Oiler fan should be praying the next announcement from the Oilers is a new hiring. A management consultant whose job is to figure out who the useful parts of the management team are and who is an obstruction or just dead wood. This person would then turf all the unwanted members of the team. Next he would hire talented new members of the management team that could bring real value to the organization. And then he’d leave.

    For this to work he’d have to be someone quite special. I kid. There is exactly one obvious name.

    You need a guy whose career has been about crushing superstar egos. You need a guy with a bunch of Stanley Cup rings. You need a guy whose built winning organizations. You need a guy who can recruit the very best AGMs from around the league. You need a guy every Oiler fan will agree is imminently qualified and utterly capable of firing the OBC if that is actually the best thing.

    Really you need a guy who has never claimed the smartest guy in the room, no just the biggest prick.

    This is true genius, as unlikely as me seeing a Unicorn today, but truly brilliant, the preverbal fox in the hen house

    Imagine Sather kicking the door in while the OBC is crushing their 5th bottle of 1990 Petrus, looking up with fear on their petulant faces…….too good

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Is it gather around children I’ll tell you a story about a defenseman named Justin Faulk time?

  122. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I agree but am too lazy to dig up those metrics, I fully anticipated you would provide it for me…thanks in advance…seriously I appreciate the incredible volume of info you provide us less motivated fellas

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WPG Dmen who have played at least 700 minutes over the past 2 years:

    Relative Teammate GF%
    Player RelT GF%
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 2.51
    BEN.CHIAROT 0.89
    JOE.MORROW 0.38
    JACOB.TROUBA 0.23
    JOSH.MORRISSEY -0.96
    TYLER.MYERS -2.71
    TOBIAS.ENSTROM -4.61
    DMITRY.KULIKOV -5.73

    So we see Buff is a huge stud. Then we see some 3rd pairing guys (standard when looking at this stuff) then we get the heart of what we want.

    Trouba’s results are very good.
    Morrissey gets a pass for being a rookie last year
    Myers, Enstrom and Kulikov are all drags WHEN COMPARED TO BUF+PARTNER AND THE EASIER MINUTES VIA THE 3RD PAIR.

    So you dig deeper and see how each Dman got those results:

    Relative team mate GF/60 – who is actually helping create more goals when on the ice:

    Player RelT GF/60
    JACOB.TROUBA 0.26
    JOSH.MORRISSEY 0.05
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN -0.03
    BEN.CHIAROT -0.07
    TYLER.MYERS -0.23
    TOBIAS.ENSTROM -0.31
    JOE.MORROW -0.44
    DMITRY.KULIKOV -0.47

    Having 3 of your top 4 Dmen at the top bodes well for WPG.

    Trouba is the star here (obv).

    If any of the negative guys gets a bunch of points, they are the vampires on the team. The team actually scores less with them on the ice, but they get points.

    The goal is to outscore and they’re a drag on the positive side of the ledger so their points don’t really matter and are an illusion that they create offence.

    Relative team mate GA/60 – who is actually helping prevent goals against when on the ice:

    Player RelT GA/60
    JOE.MORROW -0.49
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN -0.22
    BEN.CHIAROT -0.11
    TYLER.MYERS 0.05
    DMITRY.KULIKOV 0.10
    TOBIAS.ENSTROM 0.19
    JOSH.MORRISSEY 0.23
    JACOB.TROUBA 0.25

    You *always* expect your 3rd pairing guys to be at the top of this list because they play the most vs the opposition who score the least.

    That Buf is up top while playing 1st pairing is a testament to his awesomeness.

    You see Morrissey and Trouba at the bottom where 2nd pairing Dmen often are as they see close to the top comp, but with less help.

    They key is “did they make up for it with the GF/60?” and Trouba did, and Morrissey is well on track to be one who does as well.

    The mushy middle guys who are drags on GF and don’t make up for it with GA are who you want to avoid.

    Enstrom was very good for a very long time, but is probably done as a Top 4 guy.

    Myers has actually been like this since BUF days and his rookie year always gives him the benefit of the doubt which he doesn’t deserve.

    The Kulkov signing was bad when it happened as he was like this in FLA too. $4.3 x 3 is in Russell territory in terms of bad signings.

    There are tons of decent LHD in the league and they signed one of the worse ones.

    Good thing Morrissey has progressed for them.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Is it gather around children I’ll tell you a story about a defenseman named Justin Faulk time?

    Vampire for sure.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    But they’re good in the other zones so it’s not like you are playing a forward to play defense and paying him for those points

    It depends.

    If the RelTGF% is positive I don’t care how they do it.

    If the RelTGF% isn’t positive and they get paid for points its a problem.

  126. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Fantasy GM time, I don’t know if this idea was was floated, but the 1st scenario would require all the players to sign off, but maybe there might be interest from all parties.

    Lucic, Sekera & Slepyshev to Vancouver for Erikson, Tanev & Motte – add a 3rd round pick, for Vancouver to retain $1.5 million of Erikson’s salary

    and

    Kassian, Cagguila and a 6th to Carolina for McKeown, Foegele and a 3rd & 5th (Carolina is looking to get tougher, here is a potential opportunity to pick up some NHL-ready youth on value contracts).

    Sign UFA Riley Nash as the 3rd line C.

    Sign UFA Toby Enstrom for depth on a 1 year deal (if he doesn’t resign in Winnipeg, but he has not played a full season the last 4 yrs)

    Resign Cammarelli on a 1 yr deal

    Sign Francouz as Talbot’s back-up, Montoya to Bakersfield as G depth and mentor to Ellis/Starrett/Wells

  127. Confused says:

    How is this years, Jan Rutta?

    Anyone got any thoughts?

  128. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Sure I’d love Trouba, Pesce, Manson, Doughty, Karlsson, Carlson, Letang, but we can’t always have what we want, and chasing whales has proven to turn out more costly than helpful for an awful lot of teams.

    I don’t think you need to aim that high.

    More often than not, you need to draft those guys.

    My list of targets who could fill that spot:

    Tanev, Gudas, Pysyk, Demers, maybe Petrovic.

    Maybe Fletcher will do something irrational when he’s out early the playoffs again and trade Dumba

    If Peter wasn’t paying $10MM to Lucic and Russell EDM could be a legitimate player for Carlson.

    That’s a solid list for 2RD..Think they all could be had for less than the assets I listed.
    Doubt if Gudas is available. Philly’s only RD..
    Tanev would be the best, and most costly, addition if his injury history doesn’t scare you. Oilers probably have to dump some salary to fit him in.
    Ditto for Demers.
    Pysyk and Petrovic would probably work.
    Don’t see the Wild trading Dumba. I think he has taken a step forward this year. Might have a better chance of getting Spurgeon

  129. rickithebear says:

    RNH 2/3c 15-16 to 16-17
    68gm 11evg

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Woogie63,

    Starting defensemen last night
    Winnipeg looks very good, but are the Oilers with a healthy Sekera and Klefbom, that wildly different than the rest?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse – Actual NHL Top 4 RHD
    Sekera-Benning

    I truly believe you can win a conference final with that group.

    3+ Top 40 HD dman
    Larsson Top 5 1st comp HD dman with HD sys coach
    Sekera- Russell 3rd best 2nd comp HD Dpair
    These 3 anchored a playoff team.

    Klefbom Bottom 30 HD dman
    Nurse Bottom 5 HD Dman
    Coach played to thier strength offensive attack/ HD abandonment this year

  130. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    ** CLAP CLAP **

    Love that you present some Anayltics, but also provide even more meaning to the numbers.

    Enjoy the read. With these numbers avail to all teams, whyy do they sign the Kulikovs and Russells of the world?

  131. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    How about PK et el in Nashville, they seem to rely very heavily on point production from the D

  132. Alpine says:

    I think the OBC and Chia probably see eye to eye on more than we think. At least Chia and MacT do. I touched on this in the little essay i wrote here yesterday.

    Lucic was the OBC’s white whale for years. MacT tried to go big on Clarkson a few years ago and dodged a massive bullet because Clarkson is a Toronto boy. He had to have influence on this signing, as much as Chia himself was perfectly capable of doing it by himself. They both wanted Lucic at whatever cost.

    Chia definitely listened to Green on Reinhart, though the former deserves the most blame for actually thinking his valuation of 2 first rounders was worth it. Green, of course, isn’t quite Old Boys Club, just a guy who worked his way up through the Dub. The OBC has liked those guys in the past, see Stu McGregor, Rick Carriere, etc.

    Hall trade falls in line with Chia’s previous work of undervaluing forwards, but MacT also passed over Hall for the captaincy and gave it to Ference. While we’re on Ference, MacT gave him a similar contract that was too much term for an over 30 defenseman who wasn’t top four quality. Does that sound familiar? A certain Albertan defenseman was signed by the current GM under similar terms as Andrew Ference.

    In early 2016, a few months out from the draft it was rumoured that the three untouchable Oilers were McDavid, Nurse, and Draisaitl. Nurse was having an underwhelming rookie season, and Drai had a nice first half playing with Hall before he petered out (get it? lol) in the second half. There was some real buzz about why proven good players like Hall, Nuge and Klefbom weren’t included. Who was the GM that drafted Drai and Nurse?

    Pissing away valuable players? McTavish caused the Petry fiasco and gave up on Dubnyk after he had a bad three months. The management at the time didn’t even try to rehabilitate Dubnyk’s play.

    What I’ve found is that a lot of things we rightly dislike about Chia apply to McTavish as well. If these two guys are the main decision makers then you get what we’ve seen happen in the last three years: generally poor asset management. I think both guys have converged on a lot of things such as the Heavy Hockey mantra and sending out good forwards for whatever returns.

    I don’t know what the exact strife is between Chia and the OBC. I suspect the bad blood isn’t quite between Chia and MacT. Back in 2015, MacT was on ultra-thin ice much like Lowe was. No one wanted him around the management booth and Chia lkely had enough power to move him out. Lowe himself got rid of MacT as coach, and if the former could be removed from his iron clad grip on Hockey Ops, then MacT wouldn’t be too hard to get rid of. Chia kept MacT on as the number 2 guy.

    It’s clear to me that they (Chia + MacT) built this roster together. Every move is clearly something Chia or MacT could do independently because their records as GM pre-summer 2015 indicate as much. They match up with each other on a lot of ideas.

    I have never believed this Lowe as shadow GM stuff for those reasons. He might make comments here and there at the wine summits but he’s barely a voice. He was fine with stepping aside for Chia before, either Nicholson convinced him or Lowe himself picked Chia as his successor. The failures of this team to consistently compete fall at the hands of Chia and MacTavish and I suspect Gretzky, hired a year after Chia, is the one who’s making that known to the owner.

  133. rickithebear says:

    3fwds + off dmen (#4fwd/rover) drive CF, SHF, GF, CA
    Dmen affect SHA and differentiate them between closed and open.
    Goalies affect GA by open shot save%

    Combining fwd affect with , dman affect, or goalie affect to differentiate single players is
    Useless!
    Chuncks of measurable mechanisms. Combined to create individual player skills.

  134. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    WPG Dmen who have played at least 700 minutes over the past 2 years:

    Relative Teammate GF%
    PlayerRelT GF%
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN2.51
    BEN.CHIAROT0.89
    JOE.MORROW0.38
    JACOB.TROUBA0.23
    JOSH.MORRISSEY-0.96
    TYLER.MYERS-2.71
    TOBIAS.ENSTROM-4.61
    DMITRY.KULIKOV-5.73

    So we see Buff is a huge stud.Then we see some 3rd pairing guys (standard when looking at this stuff) then we get the heart of what we want.

    Trouba’s results are very good.
    Morrissey gets a pass for being a rookie last year
    Myers, Enstrom and Kulikov are all drags WHEN COMPARED TO BUF+PARTNER AND THE EASIER MINUTES VIA THE 3RD PAIR.

    So you dig deeper and see how each Dman got those results:

    Relative team mate GF/60– who is actually helping create more goals when on the ice:

    PlayerRelT GF/60
    JACOB.TROUBA0.26
    JOSH.MORRISSEY0.05
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN-0.03
    BEN.CHIAROT-0.07
    TYLER.MYERS-0.23
    TOBIAS.ENSTROM-0.31
    JOE.MORROW-0.44
    DMITRY.KULIKOV-0.47

    Having 3 of your top 4 Dmen at the top bodes well for WPG.

    Trouba is the star here (obv).

    If any of the negative guys gets a bunch of points, they are the vampires on the team.The team actually scores less with them on the ice, but they get points.

    The goal is to outscore and they’re a drag on the positive side of the ledger so their points don’t really matter and are an illusion that they create offence.

    Relative team mate GA/60– who is actually helping prevent goals against when on the ice:

    PlayerRelT GA/60
    JOE.MORROW-0.49
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN-0.22
    BEN.CHIAROT-0.11
    TYLER.MYERS0.05
    DMITRY.KULIKOV0.10
    TOBIAS.ENSTROM0.19
    JOSH.MORRISSEY0.23
    JACOB.TROUBA0.25

    You *always* expect your 3rd pairing guys to be at the top of this list because they play the most vs the opposition who score the least.

    That Buf is up top while playing 1st pairing is a testament to his awesomeness.

    You see Morrissey and Trouba at the bottom where 2nd pairing Dmen often are as they see close to the top comp, but with less help.

    They key is “did they make up for it with the GF/60?” and Trouba did, and Morrissey is well on track to be one who does as well.

    The mushy middle guys who are drags on GF and don’t make up for it with GA are who you want to avoid.

    Enstrom was very good for a very long time, but is probably done as a Top 4 guy.

    Myers has actually been like this since BUF days and his rookie year always gives him the benefit of the doubt which he doesn’t deserve.

    The Kulkov signing was bad when it happened as he was like this in FLA too.$4.3 x 3 is in Russell territory in terms of bad signings.

    There are tons of decent LHD in the league and they signed one of the worse ones.

    Good thing Morrissey has progressed for them.

    So are these numbers the only tools you would use to evaluate Myers and Kulikov? Cause when I watch Winnipeg, and I watch them a lot, I see 2 solid NHL dmen.
    I would love to have Myers on the Oilers and seems to me Kulikov filled a hole on the Jets left side this year. Injuries would be my only concern with both of them. But I think Myers is better than any of the RD you listed in your previous post. I would probably take Dumba ahead of him based on age and upside.
    Of course I think Russell is a solid dman as well and we all know the math doesn’t like him.

  135. jtblack says:

    IMHO: Trading the #9 or #10 pick in the draft is a MISTAKE. We dont know what we dont know. That is, the pick @ #9 could be a Franchise type pick. It might not, but it might.

    2012 – TROUBA (9), FORSBERG (11)
    2013 – HORVAT (9)
    2014- EHLERS (9)
    2015 – RANTANEN (10)
    2016 – JOST (10)

    See a pattern? EXCELLENT players have been taken in the 9 – 10 hole.

    Keep the pick Pete.

  136. jtblack says:

    who: So are these numbers the only tools you would use to evaluate Myers and Kulikov? Cause when I watch Winnipeg, and I watch them a lot, I see 2 solid NHL dmen.
    I would love to have Myers on the Oilers and seems to me Kulikov filled a hole on the Jets left side this year. Injuries would be my only concern with both of them. But I think Myers is better than any of the RD you listed in your previous post. I would probably take Dumba ahead of him based on age and upside.
    Of course I think Russell is a solid dman as well and we all know the math doesn’t like him.

    If I said to you ” The edmontin Oilers have been one of the best teams in the NHL the last 10 years.” what would you say?

    You might say the numbers show (prove) they have finished in the bottom 5 of the League in 8 of those seasons AND missed the playoffs 9 of 10 years.

    If I responded by saying ” Yah well they seem to have Fast skaters and some good players and the building sold out most nights (EYE TEST STUFF). ” Would you then ignore the numbers and determine the Oilers have been great the last 10 years?

    Don’t ignore the data.

  137. rickithebear says:

    How about as many HD dmen who get the puck to 1-2 players with speed on each line.
    Mcdavid, Aberg, Kassian.

  138. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: I think Craig MacTavish would be a brilliant assistant coach. I don’t know if he is wired to do it and you would have to threaten him with violence if he tried to take over the power play, but man that guy is smart.

    With all due respect, the other 29 NHL teams did nothing to scoop up MacTavish when he was done behind the Oilers bench. As an assistance or head coach. #itsatell

  139. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The question is can they win the cup before Buff falls of a cliff. I just don’t see him ageing well and he’s 33 already

  140. rickithebear says:

    jtblack: If I said to you ” The edmontin Oilershave been one of the best teams in the NHL the last 10 years.” what would you say?

    You might say the numbers show (prove) they have finished in the bottom 5 of the League in 8 of those seasons AND missed the playoffs 9 of 10 years.

    If I responded by saying ” Yah well they seem to have Fast skaters and some good players and the building sold out most nights (EYE TEST STUFF). ”Would you then ignore the numbers and determine the Oilers have been great the last 10 years?

    Don’t ignore the data.

    You need Eye (observation) partnered with math (data) to understand the affective kinetic actions to achieve +ve mechanism results. Whether density or Binary.

    Using relgf% etc. Fails to differentiate ind player mechanism.
    Saw him good does not look for repetitive base performance.

    You can both use your toys,
    They are needed.

  141. godot10 says:

    Cassandra:
    Chiarelli has a long and established track record prior to Edmonton.

    The terrible moves he has made in Edmonton are straight out of that playbook

    There has been almost nothing in common with how Edmonton has been run under Chiarelli compared to previous eras.

    Given that, it is unintelligible and a mark of extreme prejudice to suggest that Chiarelli hasn’t been the one making the decisions the past three years.

    Finally, Spector’s hit piece clearly came from within the organization.Whoever leaked itis a vicious scumbag who will do anything to keep their job.

    My inference is the story came from either Chiarelli or Nicholson.If so, Chiarelli is not simply terrible at his job, but is an awful person.

    Nicholson’s and Chiarelli’s jobs are not in jeopardy. McLellan’s is. If you want to speculate on where the origin of the Spector’s piece lies.

  142. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    If the cap goes to $82m and we bridge Nurse and move out a contract or two ( Kassian perhaps) we could be in on Carlson.

    Or combonation of increased cap and Sekera buyout.

    I doubt that either happen but hope they do.

  143. godot10 says:

    Wilde:
    Cassandra,

    My favourite suspect, for maximum soap opera points, is K. Gretzky.

    Wayne sits at the head of the table of the wine summits. He is an owner. You can’t fire an owner. He’s not going anywhere. Some people are pissed Wayne sent Paul to check out the dressing room.

    This is not rocket science.

  144. Confused says:

    who,

    I like Myers, think he would be excellent, better going forward than in this own end.

    The key is he has one year left and Winnie will hopefully be willing to move on, his next deal will be rather debatable, injury risks cost, term… They are probably also willing to let Enstorm walk, if they have a replacement.

    Russell as the replacement LHD, cheaper than Kulikov, may work for them. Again, after year one, they may have options in moving Russell, so limited long-term risk.

    Perhaps the extra 2019 R3 could come into play?

    Next year, given a bounce back, Sekera. Myers we might resign or let walk depending on Benning, Bear, Berglund…..

    Difficult to understand Russell’s mindset, but he must understand that playing RHD limits his life expectancy in Edmonton.

  145. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’d pay quite a bit as I think its a critical hole.Depends on what’s coming back.

    Also,

    Here’s Grabner’s Relative Teammate CF% over the last 4 years: (aggregation of WOWY)
    PlayerSeasonRelT CF%
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2014-2015-1.9
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2015-2016-1.62
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2016-2017-2.65
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2017-2018-1.59

    Here’s Gragner’s Relative Teammate GF% over the last 4 years (aggregation of WOWY):
    PlayerSeasonRelT GF%
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2014-20152.22
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2015-20161.34
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2016-201710.68
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2017-20188.55

    Slight drag on possession and big boost to goal share.

    Played mostly 3rd line minutes so the difference between the two makes intuitive sense, but his last two years are way more than you’d expect just for QoC difference, meaning he’s probably making that difference.

    Funny thing is he had a sharp impact on Hayes and Miller this year for NYR and they do play 2nd line minutes.Both were over 10% better GF with him than without him.

    5v5 Points/60 last 4 years:

    PlayerSeasonP/60
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2014-20151.95
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2015-20160.91
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2016-20171.93
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2017-20181.49

    5v5 Primary Points/60 last 4 years:

    PlayerSeasonP1/60
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2014-20151.3
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2015-20160.7
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2016-20171.8
    MICHAEL.GRABNER2017-20181.3

    Strictly on the numbers I see a top 9 player who has a history of the puck going in more often with him than without him.

    If you’re expecting a top 6 forward you’ll be disappointed, but if you expect what he is, its fine.

    His RelTGF% is very intriguing and if I were considering him I’d watch a lot of video to see what’s going on.

    Thanks for pulling that. Is it NST? I’d rather pay Grabner 2.5 than Kassian 1.95, I’m not sure Grabner finds a big payday with his lack of overall points, he also seems to be the type that is helpful but teams don’t keep and don’t pay. I like the goal scoring ability, the speed and the PKing.

    As for RD. I’m not sure there is anyone available that wouldn’t involve too much cost for still needing shelter. I agree with you most offensive D take forward’s points, and few are strong 2 way players.

    I wonder about the OEL rumours. He is young enough to interest me and his contract status might reduce his cost. Coming off a weak team might also hide his true contribution.

    Of course they don’t need LD, but at his age he can be part of the core moving forward, and then Klef could be used to get a RD or forward, switch pieces until the RD is acquired.

    To me OEL is a solid 2 way in his career. It would allow cover for a weaker RD that is better than they have in the top 4.

    Maybe Sakic takes Klef for Barrie, for the dollars. Sekera Luc or Russell have to waive for it to work methinks.

    I’ll play with Capfriendly in a minute.

  146. who says:

    jtblack: If I said to you ” The edmontin Oilershave been one of the best teams in the NHL the last 10 years.” what would you say?

    You might say the numbers show (prove) they have finished in the bottom 5 of the League in 8 of those seasons AND missed the playoffs 9 of 10 years.

    If I responded by saying ” Yah well they seem to have Fast skaters and some good players and the building sold out most nights (EYE TEST STUFF). ”Would you then ignore the numbers and determine the Oilers have been great the last 10 years?

    Don’t ignore the data.

    Huh?
    Are you trying to teach me something with this example? If so, it seems rather condescending, don’t you think?
    Both the data and the eye test say the Oilers have been a bad team the last 10 years. They lost a lot of hockey games and looked bad doing it. I don’t see the point of your story.
    This years team had some fast skaters and good players. They still didn’t look like a very good team. And they had a shitty record. Again the eye test and data seem to match.
    My point is that individual data alone, in a team sport, will not always identify the best players. And it certainly won’t identify the potential upside of a young player.

    Don’t ignore the eye test.

  147. Confused says:

    Thoughts on bringing Joel Persson over as another D?

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    7 out of Grabner’s 25 goals were empty net.

    A hard no to Grabner for me as he’s going to get paid as a top 6 guy (and that’s where he’d be slotted in our lineup) whereas he’s really a middle 6 guy.

    I guess those empty net goals show he’s trusted in the last minutes protecting a lead but, at the same time, his goal scoring prowess is, in my opinion, inflated.

    If he can be acquired for less than $3M and no more than 3 years then, sure, but that doesn’t seem likely.

  149. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    How about PK et el in Nashville, they seem to rely very heavily on point production from the D

    NSH are really interesting.

    Remember that Dmen results are really Dpair results and I can’t parse this stuff for pairs.

    Also remember that this is all Relative to their teammates.

    Very good teams have lots of good players and good players will look worse than great players and when dealing with a deep Dcorps that QoC is pretty crucial to results.

    That being said:

    Last two years, minimum 800 minutes 5v5 NSH

    Relative Teammate GF%
    Player RelT GF%
    RYAN.ELLIS 4.9
    MATT.IRWIN 2.71
    ROMAN.JOSI 1.14
    P.K..SUBBAN 0.12
    ALEXEI.EMELIN -0.58
    SAMUEL.GIRARD -1.18
    YANNICK.WEBER -2.45
    MATTIAS.EKHOLM -2.53

    Love Ellis. Wanted him when he was still 3rd pair.

    Subban was -2 last year and +2 this year. A narrative that comes to mind is “coaching finding where PK best fits on the team etc. etc.”

    Ekholm was +0.31 last year and -5.64 this year. If I was interested I’d dig into partners and usage there.

    Lots of randomness in the smaller samples of goals so that’s why you need to only use goals in large samples.

    Offensive – Relative Teammate GF/60
    Player RelT GF/60
    RYAN.ELLIS 0.51
    ROMAN.JOSI 0.47
    P.K..SUBBAN 0.12
    SAMUEL.GIRARD 0.07
    MATT.IRWIN -0.09
    MATTIAS.EKHOLM -0.29
    YANNICK.WEBER -0.43
    ALEXEI.EMELIN -0.78

    Top 3 are in the top 4. Having looked at many teams’ results that’s very very strong.

    Defensive – Relative teammate GA/60
    Player RelT GA/60
    ALEXEI.EMELIN -0.54
    MATT.IRWIN -0.26
    YANNICK.WEBER -0.19
    MATTIAS.EKHOLM 0.02
    RYAN.ELLIS 0.03
    P.K..SUBBAN 0.10
    SAMUEL.GIRARD 0.22
    ROMAN.JOSI 0.33

    As I mentioned before your bottom pair are usually at the top here.

    Emelin has played a lot with PK so he shows well here (who knew?)

    Overall Josi, Subban and Ellis get the most points for NSH D, but they are not vampires as they add value at the same time.

    Ekholm is the one vampire candidate, but his results are so far off this year goal wise I’d dig into before declaring anything.

  150. who says:

    Confused:
    who,

    I like Myers, think he would be excellent, better going forward than in this own end.

    The key is he has one year left and Winnie will hopefully be willing to move on, his next deal will be rather debatable, injury risks cost, term… They are probably also willing to let Enstorm walk, if they have a replacement.

    Russell as the replacement LHD, cheaper than Kulikov, may work for them. Again, after year one, they may have options in moving Russell, so limited long-term risk.

    Perhaps the extra 2019 R3 could come into play?

    Next year, given a bounce back, Sekera. Myers we might resign or let walk depending on Benning, Bear, Berglund…..

    Difficult to understand Russell’s mindset, but he must understand that playing RHD limits his life expectancy in Edmonton.

    I would do Russell for Myers in a heartbeat.
    But I don’t see why Winnipeg does. Maybe for cap space but they only gain 1.5 million and take on 2 more years of contract with Russell. Myers is more valuable to them than Russell.
    And even if Enstrom is done they still have Morrisey, Kulikov, Chiarot and Morrow on the left side.
    And that’s the big problem with trading with Winnipeg. They literally need NOTHING. That is one impressive piece of team building right there.

  151. Lowetide says:

    Talk of poster’s wives is so far off limits I’m surprised I have to post this. Good lord.

  152. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: So are these numbers the only tools you would use to evaluate Myers and Kulikov?

    No.

    I didn’t say that either.

    I usually specifically say “using these number only…..” so stop with that.

    Also,

    People have been dismissing the results because of what they *think* they see forever and will continue to do so forever.

    That’s entirely your choice, but Kulkov and Myers’ teams have done worse with them on the ice than off for years and years.

    Its entirely within your right to ignore it.

    Also,

    Of course I think Russell is a solid dman as well and we all know the math doesn’t like him.

    That’s not really true either.

    Using corsi analysis only he shows up poor.

    Using goals over large sample and he shows up better.

    Still not an Actual Top 4 NHL Dmen, but even Stauffer and Spector refer to him as a “4/5 Dman” which is fair and supported by the results.

    Also,

    Call the results “math” makes it sound like things are being made up.

    The only math in these number is counting. Adding and subtracting.

    They are on ice results, not math.

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    meanashell11: Of course I think Russell is a solid dman as well and we all know the math doesn’t like him.

    It was either Peter or Burger Bob who fed him the story.

    At first I thought Burger Bob, but now I’m leaning towards Peter.

    I also think that his story is entirely fair and exposing rot to sunlight is one way to make it go away.

  154. godot10 says:

    There seems to be some confusion about what accountability and authority mean when it comes to the GM position.

    The notion that a GM can do whatever he wants is just absurd. He can’t. Belichick cannot cut or trade Tom Brady. Chiarelli cannot trade McDavid. That is not how it works.

    The way it works is a GM presents a plan to his boss and/or the owner. And once this plan gets approval, then the GM is free to do what he wants as long as he is operating within the plan. If he wants to do something outside of the plan, then he has to go present a new plan to his boss and/or the owner and get it approved. A GM cannot freelance. He is accountable to a plan of operation. When he wants to change the plan is a material way (i.e. trade McDavid), he has to go get the new plan approved.

    What would be in a typical plan. Well, your core players, players that you are not going to trade. If as a GM, you decide that you want to trade one of your core players, then you take a new plan to your boss/owner for approval. And then one is free to trade that player.

    Hall was obviously a core player. When Chiarelli decided that he wanted to trade Hall, an plan for what his intentions about building the team must have been presented and approved by Nicholson and Katz. Nicholson and Katz would probably discuss the plan amongst the ownership committee…i.e. Katz, Nicholson, Gretzky, and Lowe. In the presentation to ownership, Chiarelli probably included the opinion and agreement of others in the management team (MacT, TMc, etc) that Hall was the asset they wanted to use to acquire a right shot right D defensemen. The intended acquistion of Lucic was probably part of the the plan as it related to Hall.

    Eberle was probably different. As part of a plan, it was probably noted that in the medium term, it would not be possible to re-sign Eberle do to cost, and thus, and thus Chiarelli would look to trade him opportunistically.

    The trade of the draft picks for a D (which would have went for Hamilton and did go for Reinhart) was probably part of a plan presented and approved by all.

    i.e. The GM has authority, but is NOT freelancing or operating on a whim. The GM has complete authority within a framework, and if he wants to do something outside of the framework, he presents a new framework for approval.

    This is what Chiarelli has not been fired, because all his major moves that have gone south, have been parts of overall plans for operation which were approved by everyone.

    Chiarelli cannot wake up some morning and decide he is going to trade Taylor Hall or Connor McDavid.

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    Using relgf% etc. Fails to differentiate ind player mechanism.
    Saw him good does not look for repetitive base performance.

    You can both use your toys,
    They are needed.

    I agree with this.

    I think the results are a good way of identifying players and then you send in the scouts to help figure out the “why” and to figure out how much of the results are influenced directly by the player.

  156. Confused says:

    who,

    Depends on how you see Winnie dealing with the cap, lots of ufas and rfas next year, what is their financial strategy?

  157. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Ellis was gone for a good chunk of the year. Ekholms number will naturally suffer with temporary second pairing fill-in

  158. VOR says:

    Let’s try a tough one.

    I think we all know the Oilers need to upgrade at 5 or 6 positions:

    -back up goalie
    -2nd pair RD
    -4th line center
    As many as 3 top 6 forwards

    Those upgrades could be prospects already in the system. They could be drafted this year. They might be signed as free agents. Some could come via trade.

    Or the Oilers could do nothing and instead have some undrafted kid show up at camp on a PTO and change everything.

    The first thing fans will think is, “my God he is small”. The next thing will be, “my God can he skate.” Over time someone will notice the little kid can kill penalties, he is a penalty killing savant. And that he is probably the best d-zone face off man anybody has ever seen. And he seems to draw a lot of penalties. Other teams don’t like him much and it shows.

    He is in other words a classic 4C. And an incredibly cheap one. Best of all he has a lot of offence for a 4C.

    This explains how he will come to be on the ice with Connor McDavid on the night he goes from good little man to hockey legend. It will be a rough game with officials who stupidly let things get out of hand. Then some moron will deliberately try to break Connor McDavi’s wrist.

    The little guy will be the only Oiler who takes exception. For his trouble he will get attacked by not one but two tough guys each at least six inches taller and sixty pounds heavier. The press ever after will refer to it as “The Night The Ice Ran Red With Blood”.

    You see the little guy will turn out to be a very dangerous mix of Bruce Lee and Hannibal Lecter. In short order he will challenging the other team’s bench to come out and fight like men. Looking at the shattered and scattered bodies of teammates they will decline that offer. They will be saved when his teammates finally manage to drag him away. It will take multiple ambulances to transport his victims to hospital.

    The little guy will be suspended. For a long time. But when he returns the kid will find he has all the time and space in the world. Whenever people forget how dangerous he is he will remove a spleen or some testicles, or carve someone’s face up. And somehow he never gets caught. Ever.

    The kid will take all that open ice and become one of the greatest two way players in hockey history. He will never win a major award but he will come up huge in the playoffs, over and over and over again.

    The last time I did one of these the answer was Igor Larionov and my point then and is now if it’s the right player the Oilers are really only one player away. Any guesses who I am projecting into their line up this time?

  159. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: Control. Responsibility. Accountability. It’s a middle management idea, get everyone to sign off so we’re all safe. It’s Tambellini.

    Given his track record, do you really want Chairelli making trades carte blanche? Personally I’d be much more comfortable if they had a safety net in place – it’ll stop him from making short-term decisions to save his job. Your (terrible) Draisaitl + 1st for 1 year of Karlsson suggestion comes to mind…

  160. Turning Tikkanese says:

    Off topic a bit, interested inn your take on this. Oilers could use a vet placeholder/cover for developing forwards, what about jason Spezza? Dallas would like to free up his 7.5 mil cap hit for next season (1 season left) and face a buyout option at 2/3 over two years or 2.5 x 2. Trying to trade him generally would usually mean retaining up to half his cap hit and taking back a toxic contract from someone else. They could avoid the toxic cap hit if the Oilers were interested at half price perhaps as part of a bigger trade such as LD for RD or LD for FWD???

    Not thoroughly researched yet but just spit balling… any thoughts? Does he still have the wheels and hands to contribute at 3.75 x1 for us and be a viable cover option?

  161. Confused says:

    who,

    Trouba, Poolman, Morrissey and Morrow all need new deals, what numbers are you envisaging?

  162. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    Using relgf% etc. Fails to differentiate ind player mechanism.
    Saw him good does not look for repetitive base performance.


    You can both use your toys,
    They are needed.

    I agree with this.

    I think the results are a good way of identifying players and then you send in the scouts to help figure out the “why” and to figure out how much of the results are influenced directly by the player.

    Woodguy v2.0: No.

    I didn’t say that either.

    I usually specifically say “using these number only…..” so stop with that.

    Also,

    People have been dismissing the results because of what they *think* they see forever and will continue to do so forever.

    That’s entirely your choice, but Kulkov and Myers’ teams have done worse with them on the ice than off for years and years.

    Its entirely within your right to ignore it.

    Also,

    Of course I think Russell is a solid dman as well and we all know the math doesn’t like him.

    That’s not really true either.

    Using corsi analysis only he shows up poor.

    Using goals over large sample and he shows up better.

    Still not an Actual Top 4 NHL Dmen, but even Stauffer and Spector refer to him as a “4/5 Dman” which is fair and supported by the results.

    Also,

    Call the results “math” makes it sound like things are being made up.

    The only math in these number is counting.Adding and subtracting.

    They are on ice results, not math.

    So it sounds like you combine the data and the eye test to rate players. Correct me if I’m wrong.
    Sometimes your posts read something like “this guy has the best data so obviously he is the best player”.
    And does it matter whether I call it math or data or stats or numbers? Everyone knows what I’m talking about.

  163. Wayne Kenov says:

    Turning Tikkanese:
    Off topic a bit, interested inn your take on this. Oilers could use a vet placeholder/cover for developing forwards, what about jason Spezza? Dallas would like to free up his 7.5 mil cap hit for next season (1 season left) and face a buyout option at 2/3 over two years or 2.5 x 2. Trying to trade him generally would usually mean retaining up to half his cap hit and taking back a toxic contract from someone else. They could avoid the toxic cap hit if the Oilers were interested at half price perhaps as part of a bigger trade such as LD forRD or LD for FWD???

    Not thoroughly researched yetbut just spit balling… any thoughts? Does he still have the wheels and hands to contribute at 3.75 x1 for us and be a viable cover option?

    I’d do it, but I’m not sure we will have even that much money once we resign our rfas. I also think our management thinks we are closer than we are. The way I see it, we are at “Party like it’s 2015”. Eating bad contracts and other similar moves to improve the prospect pool is advisable imo. Is it doable? Less sure.

  164. Georges says:

    Lowetide:
    Talk of poster’s wives is so far off limits I’m surprised I have to post this. Good lord.

    I wonder what it sounded like when that poster thought and posted it. Because it sounded way way offside when this poster read it. People are full of surprises. Someday you’ll decide to banthemall.

  165. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Let’s try a tough one.

    I think we all know the Oilers need to upgrade at 5 or 6 positions:

    -back up goalie
    -2nd pair RD
    -4th line center
    As many as 3 top 6 forwards

    Those upgrades could be prospects already in the system. They could be drafted this year. They might be signed as free agents. Some could come via trade.

    Or the Oilers could do nothing and instead have some undrafted kid show up at camp on a PTO and change everything.

    The first thing fans will think is, “my God he is small”. The next thing will be, “my God can he skate.” Over time someone will notice the little kid can kill penalties, he is a penalty killing savant. And that he is probably the best d-zone face off man anybody has ever seen. And he seems to draw a lot of penalties. Other teams don’t like him much and it shows.

    He is in other words a classic 4C. And an incredibly cheap one. Best of all he has a lot of offence for a 4C.

    This explains how he will come to be on the ice with Connor McDavid on the night he goes from good little man to hockey legend. It will be a rough game with officials who stupidly let things get out of hand. Then some moron will deliberately try to break Connor McDavi’s wrist.

    The little guy will be the only Oiler who takes exception. For his trouble he will get attacked by not one but two tough guys each at least six inches taller and sixty pounds heavier. The press ever after will refer to it as “The Night The Ice Ran Red With Blood”.

    You see the little guy will turn out to be a very dangerous mix of Bruce Lee and Hannibal Lecter. In short order he will challenging the other team’s bench to come out and fight like men. Looking at the shattered and scattered bodies of teammates they will decline that offer. They will be saved when his teammates finally manage to drag him away. It will take multiple ambulances to transport his victims to hospital.

    The little guy will be suspended. For a long time. But when he returns the kid will find he has all the time and space in the world. Whenever people forget how dangerous he is he will remove a spleen or some testicles, or carve someone’s face up. And somehow he never gets caught. Ever.

    The kid will take all that open ice and become one of the greatest two way players in hockey history. He will never win a major award but he will come up huge in the playoffs, over and over and over again.

    The last time I did one of these the answer was Igor Larionov and my point then and is now if it’s the right player the Oilers are really only one player away. Any guesses who I am projecting into their line up this time?

    Omark!

  166. Munny says:

    VOR:
    I have thought about this a lot and concluded every Oiler fan should be praying the next announcement from the Oilers is a new hiring. A management consultant whose job is to figure out who the useful parts of the management team are and who is an obstruction or just dead wood. This person would then turf all the unwanted members of the team. Next he would hire talented new members of the management team that could bring real value to the organization. And then he’d leave.

    For this to work he’d have to be someone quite special. I kid. There is exactly one obvious name.

    You need a guy whose career has been about crushing superstar egos. You need a guy with a bunch of Stanley Cup rings. You need a guy whose built winning organizations. You need a guy who can recruit the very best AGMs from around the league. You need a guy every Oiler fan will agree is imminently qualified and utterly capable of firing the OBC if that is actually the best thing.

    Really you need a guy who has never claimed the smartest guy in the room, no just the biggest prick.

    Stan Bowman.

    Although Lou Lam would probably work too.

  167. Wayne Kenov says:

    VOR:
    Let’s try a tough one.

    I think we all know the Oilers need to upgrade at 5 or 6 positions:

    -back up goalie
    -2nd pair RD
    -4th line center
    As many as 3 top 6 forwards

    Those upgrades could be prospects already in the system. They could be drafted this year. They might be signed as free agents. Some could come via trade.

    Or the Oilers could do nothing and instead have some undrafted kid show up at camp on a PTO and change everything.

    The first thing fans will think is, “my God he is small”. The next thing will be, “my God can he skate.” Over time someone will notice the little kid can kill penalties, he is a penalty killing savant. And that he is probably the best d-zone face off man anybody has ever seen. And he seems to draw a lot of penalties. Other teams don’t like him much and it shows.

    He is in other words a classic 4C. And an incredibly cheap one. Best of all he has a lot of offence for a 4C.

    This explains how he will come to be on the ice with Connor McDavid on the night he goes from good little man to hockey legend. It will be a rough game with officials who stupidly let things get out of hand. Then some moron will deliberately try to break Connor McDavi’s wrist.

    The little guy will be the only Oiler who takes exception. For his trouble he will get attacked by not one but two tough guys each at least six inches taller and sixty pounds heavier. The press ever after will refer to it as “The Night The Ice Ran Red With Blood”.

    You see the little guy will turn out to be a very dangerous mix of Bruce Lee and Hannibal Lecter. In short order he will challenging the other team’s bench to come out and fight like men. Looking at the shattered and scattered bodies of teammates they will decline that offer. They will be saved when his teammates finally manage to drag him away. It will take multiple ambulances to transport his victims to hospital.

    The little guy will be suspended. For a long time. But when he returns the kid will find he has all the time and space in the world. Whenever people forget how dangerous he is he will remove a spleen or some testicles, or carve someone’s face up. And somehow he never gets caught. Ever.

    The kid will take all that open ice and become one of the greatest two way players in hockey history. He will never win a major award but he will come up huge in the playoffs, over and over and over again.

    The last time I did one of these the answer was Igor Larionov and my point then and is now if it’s the right player the Oilers are really only one player away. Any guesses who I am projecting into their line up this time?

    Tiger Williams? Or are we talking real life modern players? Then I’ll guess Max Domi.

  168. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    Using relgf% etc. Fails to differentiate ind player mechanism.
    Saw him good does not look for repetitive base performance.


    You can both use your toys,
    They are needed.

    I agree with this.

    I think the results are a good way of identifying players and then you send in the scouts to help figure out the “why” and to figure out how much of the results are influenced directly by the player.

    Woodguy v2.0: No.

    I didn’t say that either.

    I usually specifically say “using these number only…..” so stop with that.

    Also,

    People have been dismissing the results because of what they *think* they see forever and will continue to do so forever.

    That’s entirely your choice, but Kulkov and Myers’ teams have done worse with them on the ice than off for years and years.

    Its entirely within your right to ignore it.

    Also,

    Of course I think Russell is a solid dman as well and we all know the math doesn’t like him.

    That’s not really true either.

    Using corsi analysis only he shows up poor.

    Using goals over large sample and he shows up better.

    Still not an Actual Top 4 NHL Dmen, but even Stauffer and Spector refer to him as a “4/5 Dman” which is fair and supported by the results.

    Also,

    Call the results “math” makes it sound like things are being made up.

    The only math in these number is counting.Adding and subtracting.

    They are on ice results, not math.

    So it sounds like you combine the data and the eye test to rate players. Correct me if I’m wrong.
    Sometimes your posts read something like “this guy has the best data so obviously he is the best player”.
    And does it matter whether I call it math or data or stats or numbers? Everyone knows what I’m talking about.

    Confused:
    who,

    Trouba, Poolman, Morrissey and Morrow all need new deals, what numbers are you envisaging?

    Trouba and Morrisey will cost money. And so will some of the young forwards. Winnipeg is going to have cap issues but Myers only has 1 year left.
    If it’s a salary dump you probably have a better chance of getting him by offering Benning.

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Its corsica.hockey

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers re-sign Rattie to a one-year deal.

  171. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    Let’s try a tough one.

    I think we all know the Oilers need to upgrade at 5 or 6 positions:

    -back up goalie
    -2nd pair RD
    -4th line center
    As many as 3 top 6 forwards

    Those upgrades could be prospects already in the system. They could be drafted this year. They might be signed as free agents. Some could come via trade.

    Or the Oilers could do nothing and instead have some undrafted kid show up at camp on a PTO and change everything.

    The first thing fans will think is, “my God he is small”. The next thing will be, “my God can he skate.” Over time someone will notice the little kid can kill penalties, he is a penalty killing savant. And that he is probably the best d-zone face off man anybody has ever seen. And he seems to draw a lot of penalties. Other teams don’t like him much and it shows.

    He is in other words a classic 4C. And an incredibly cheap one. Best of all he has a lot of offence for a 4C.

    This explains how he will come to be on the ice with Connor McDavid on the night he goes from good little man to hockey legend. It will be a rough game with officials who stupidly let things get out of hand. Then some moron will deliberately try to break Connor McDavi’s wrist.

    The little guy will be the only Oiler who takes exception. For his trouble he will get attacked by not one but two tough guys each at least six inches taller and sixty pounds heavier. The press ever after will refer to it as “The Night The Ice Ran Red With Blood”.

    You see the little guy will turn out to be a very dangerous mix of Bruce Lee and Hannibal Lecter. In short order he will challenging the other team’s bench to come out and fight like men. Looking at the shattered and scattered bodies of teammates they will decline that offer. They will be saved when his teammates finally manage to drag him away. It will take multiple ambulances to transport his victims to hospital.

    The little guy will be suspended. For a long time. But when he returns the kid will find he has all the time and space in the world. Whenever people forget how dangerous he is he will remove a spleen or some testicles, or carve someone’s face up. And somehow he never gets caught. Ever.

    The kid will take all that open ice and become one of the greatest two way players in hockey history. He will never win a major award but he will come up huge in the playoffs, over and over and over again.

    The last time I did one of these the answer was Igor Larionov and my point then and is now if it’s the right player the Oilers are really only one player away. Any guesses who I am projecting into their line up this time?

    Sobatka

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Ellis was gone for a good chunk of the year.Ekholms number will naturally suffer with temporary second pairing fill-in

    Ekholm had some pretty good partners this year:

    With TOI With
    Roman Josi 517.5
    P.K. Subban 512.0

    GF% with Ekholm
    Roman Josi 50.0
    P.K. Subban 53.1

    GF% Without Ekholm
    Roman Josi 66.7
    P.K. Subban 60.7

    That’s pretty significant.

    I wonder if Ekholm was hurt?

  173. digger50 says:

    VOR:
    Let’s try a tough one.

    I think we all know the Oilers need to upgrade at 5 or 6 positions:

    -back up goalie
    -2nd pair RD
    -4th line center
    As many as 3 top 6 forwards

    Those upgrades could be prospects already in the system. They could be drafted this year. They might be signed as free agents. Some could come via trade.

    Or the Oilers could do nothing and instead have some undrafted kid show up at camp on a PTO and change everything.

    The first thing fans will think is, “my God he is small”. The next thing will be, “my God can he skate.” Over time someone will notice the little kid can kill penalties, he is a penalty killing savant. And that he is probably the best d-zone face off man anybody has ever seen. And he seems to draw a lot of penalties. Other teams don’t like him much and it shows.

    He is in other words a classic 4C. And an incredibly cheap one. Best of all he has a lot of offence for a 4C.

    This explains how he will come to be on the ice with Connor McDavid on the night he goes from good little man to hockey legend. It will be a rough game with officials who stupidly let things get out of hand. Then some moron will deliberately try to break Connor McDavi’s wrist.

    The little guy will be the only Oiler who takes exception. For his trouble he will get attacked by not one but two tough guys each at least six inches taller and sixty pounds heavier. The press ever after will refer to it as “The Night The Ice Ran Red With Blood”.

    You see the little guy will turn out to be a very dangerous mix of Bruce Lee and Hannibal Lecter. In short order he will challenging the other team’s bench to come out and fight like men. Looking at the shattered and scattered bodies of teammates they will decline that offer. They will be saved when his teammates finally manage to drag him away. It will take multiple ambulances to transport his victims to hospital.

    The little guy will be suspended. For a long time. But when he returns the kid will find he has all the time and space in the world. Whenever people forget how dangerous he is he will remove a spleen or some testicles, or carve someone’s face up. And somehow he never gets caught. Ever.

    The kid will take all that open ice and become one of the greatest two way players in hockey history. He will never win a major award but he will come up huge in the playoffs, over and over and over again.

    The last time I did one of these the answer was Igor Larionov and my point then and is now if it’s the right player the Oilers are really only one player away. Any guesses who I am projecting into their line up this time?

    I have no idea. But your stories are so dam good I want them know the answer!!

    ( I also liked the idea of Domi as a target, but that may be too easy)

  174. rickithebear says:

    Using team result to measure a player awful.
    Are they good at what thier position is asked to do.

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack,

    Enjoy the read. With these numbers avail to all teams, whyy do they sign the Kulikovs and Russells of the world?

    I think its for the same reason who thinks its all full of shit.

    Its because they don’t look bad.

    They’re NHL players and they do some things well and many people will dismiss a record of the results when it doesn’t match their own perception of the player.

    The key is this though:

    “The eye test, by definition cannot give you information about things that do not happen, where as results data can”

    Let’s use Kulikov and Myers as the examples:

    PlayerRelT GA/60
    TYLER.MYERS 0.05
    DMITRY.KULIKOV 0.10

    So in terms of goals going in when they are on the ice, they are pretty much spot on the WPG mean.

    They probably look competent doing it too.

    This would look good via the eye test.

    Player RelT GF/60
    TYLER.MYERS -0.23
    DMITRY.KULIKOV -0.47

    Here’s where they really effect their teams results and the kicker is that ITS BECAUSE OF WHAT ISN’T HAPPENING WHEN THEY ARE ON THE ICE

    You don’t see goals that don’t happen with your eyes and memory.

    The lack of goals are probably for a myriad of reasons, but usually the main one is lack of exiting the zone with the puck.

    Dump it out etc, etc.

    This is why you need result data.

    To see the things that don’t happen.

  176. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who:
    So it sounds like you combine the data and the eye test to rate players. Correct me if I’m wrong.
    Sometimes your posts read something like “this guy has the best data so obviously he is the best player”.
    And does it matter whether I call it math or data or stats or numbers? Everyone knows what I’m talking about.

    I try to combine them, but I don’t watch every game.

    When I know a player well (like Ellis or Buf) I’m more assertive in my claims.

    Usually I’ll write “by this metic this player is xxxxx”, but I don’t always.

    Some results are so stark that they tell a lot of the story.

    I’ve been grinding data, especially on Dmen for years and you tend to see the same players near the top and the same ones near the bottom.

    Myers and Kulikov are ones I’ve seen near the bottom for years so it has to mean something.

    As for the math/data/results things, its a hobbyhorse of mine.

  177. Confused says:

    who,

    Remember they are sending out Enstrom and Myers so Russell is a vet return and almost 7M off the cap.

    Why would the Oilers trade Benning for a guy with one year left? We are then still short a RHD!

    Imagine we can bridge Benning at 2M that would be 3.5M cap add for the Oilers, makes no sense for the Oilers. 3.5M is a massive cap dump, think Ebs.

    Perhaps, Winnie has no interest,but this seems to be somewhere near the Oiler’s viewpoint unless we are just going mad.

    If Winnie needs much more, we move on, do not sell the farm.

  178. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    7 out of Grabner’s 25 goals were empty net.

    A hard no to Grabner for me as he’s going to get paid as a top 6 guy (and that’s where he’d be slotted in our lineup) whereas he’s really a middle 6 guy.

    I guess those empty net goals show he’s trusted in the last minutes protecting a lead but, at the same time, his goal scoring prowess is, in my opinion, inflated.

    If he can be acquired for less than $3M and no more than 3 years then, sure, but that doesn’t seem likely.

    All the data I presented on Grabner was 5v5 so the EN goals wouldn’t show up there.

  179. Woogie63 says:

    Is Julias Honka aiming high enough?

  180. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear:
    Using team result to measure a player awful.
    Are they good at what thier position is asked to do.

    I’m not posting team results.

    I’m posting the aggregation of WOWY.

    If they’re good at what they are supposed to be doing in the game of hockey it will show up in the goals. (in large enough samples)

    If its doesn’t show up in goals are they really doing things that help the team win?

  181. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    But Russell DOES look bad to a half decent observer. Horrible even.

    It’s just that this org hires the ones who look for try-hards and shot blocking types AND ignore stats.

  182. Woogie63 says:

    Oilers are posting they have signed RATTIE

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No.

    I didn’t say that either.

    Still not an Actual Top 4 NHL Dmen, but even Stauffer and Spector refer to him as a “4/5 Dman” which is fair and supported by the results.

    4/5 D on the left side, sure, not a 4/5D on the right side, certainly not a good enough 2RD on a contending team (even if being polished by a healthy Sekera).

  184. VOR says:

    There are two possible answers to the psychopatic player question above. One is a current player the other an iconic hero of days gone by. I have, I promise you, way understated both players talents. These are small men with 200 foot games, incredible skating skills, and explosive offence. Oh and both have a very dangerous gear loose and that is also way understating.

    One is long retired the other could probably be picked up for a box of hockey pucks right now.

  185. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I try to combine them, but I don’t watch every game.

    When I know a player well (like Ellis or Buf) I’m more assertive in my claims.

    Usually I’ll write “by this metic this player is xxxxx”, but I don’t always.

    Some results are so stark that they tell a lot of the story.

    I’ve been grinding data, especially on Dmen for years and you tend to see the same players near the top and the same ones near the bottom.

    Myers and Kulikov are ones I’ve seen near the bottom for years so it has to mean something.

    As for the math/data/results things, its a hobbyhorse of mine.

    I loved your explanation of why you need result data. Brilliant.

    For years I, like you ground d-man data. But nothing produced consistent results except as you say the same few names kept showing up at the bottom of each analysis. And of course that one name that kept showing up in first place. Zeno Chara. I remember year after year he’d be #1 in relative metrics and the rest of the top ten would change completely.

  186. Confused says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    One year, at a sensible number a good move.

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: All the data I presented on Grabner was 5v5 so the EN goals wouldn’t show up there.

    I understand that, however, I believe GMs (i.e. our GM) could see 25 goals and speed and think he’s the top 6 winger we need whereas all the numbers show he’s less than that. He’s got 2-way skills and PK, however, could we not see our GM overpaying this guy in term and hit, shit, and trade-protection.

    Would anyone be surprised if he’s signed to a Russell-like contract? That would be awful.

    No “big ticket” acquisition on the wing in the top 6 for me – short term only – bridge the gap – we need value contracts in the top 6 not aging veterans on UFA deals (or trades for aging veterans with 1-2 years of term left in exchange for valuable core or futures)

  188. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I understand that, however, I believe GMs (i.e. our GM) could see 25 goals and speed and think he’s the top 6 winger we need whereas all the numbers show he’s less than that.He’s got 2-way skills and PK, however, could we not see our GM overpaying this guy in term and hit, shit, and trade-protection.

    Would anyone be surprised if he’s signed to a Russell-like contract?That would be awful.

    No “big ticket” acquisition on the wing in the top 6 for me – short term only – bridge the gap – we need value contracts in the top 6 not aging veterans on UFA deals (or trades for aging veterans with 1-2 years of term left in exchange for valuable core or futures)

    I agree with all that.

    Just wanted to be clear about the data.

  189. Lowetide says:

    $800 k for Ratter, per Friedman

  190. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    Chiarelli has a long and established track record prior to Edmonton.

    The terrible moves he has made in Edmonton are straight out of that playbook

    There has been almost nothing in common with how Edmonton has been run under Chiarelli compared to previous eras.

    Given that, it is unintelligible and a mark of extreme prejudice to suggest that Chiarelli hasn’t been the one making the decisions the past three years.

    Finally, Spector’s hit piece clearly came from within the organization.Whoever leaked itis a vicious scumbag who will do anything to keep their job.

    My inference is the story came from either Chiarelli or Nicholson.If so, Chiarelli is not simply terrible at his job, but is an awful person.

    What a crappy thing to say. You must obviously think the mastermind behind the leak did it for shit and giggles.

  191. Alpine says:

    Don’t mind bringing Rattie back but I don’t believe he’s a solution on that line for much longer. I think Aberg might give that line something extra with his two way play.

  192. OriginalPouzar says:

    $800K for Rattie – fully (essentially) buryable in the minors.

  193. Munny says:

    VOR,

    I will go with Elmer Lach for this one.

  194. Confused says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Just trying to have a discussion, so please do not take this the wrong way.

    Winnie finished second with 114, so what do you hypothesize is offsetting this pair?

  195. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    There are two possible answers to the psychopatic player question above. One is a current player the other an iconic hero of days gone by. I have, I promise you, way understated both players talents. These are small men with 200 foot games, incredible skating skills, and explosive offence. Oh and both have a very dangerous gear loose and that is also way understating.

    One is long retired the other could probably be picked up for a box of hockey pucks right now.

    Fleury was the old one.

    Sobatka, Paul Byron, Blake Coleman

  196. Bryan says:

    VOR,

    I’ll take Ken Linesman off the retired list

  197. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Confused:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Just trying to have a discussion, so please do not take this the wrong way.

    Winnie finished second with 114, so what do you hypothesize is offsetting this pair?

    It’s all there.

    Buff, Trouba and Morrisey are very good.

    It’s also a good team, so the worst players don’t necessarily “tank” the team, it’s just that the team isn’t as good when they are on the ice.

    Look at Ekholm’s numbers.

    He’s had a terrible GF% year and the results are still over 50% because he’s on a the best team.

    WPG is the 2nd best team.

  198. who says:

    Confused:
    who,

    Remember they are sending out Enstrom and Myers so Russell is a vet return and almost 7M off the cap.

    Why would the Oilers trade Benning for a guy with one year left? We are then still short a RHD!

    Imagine we can bridge Benning at 2M that would be 3.5M cap add for the Oilers, makes no sense for the Oilers.3.5M is a massive cap dump, think Ebs.

    Perhaps, Winnie has no interest,but this seems to be somewhere near the Oiler’s viewpoint unless we are just going mad.

    If Winnie needs much more, we move on, do not sell the farm.

    It all depends on how much you value Bennings upside. Right now I see him as a third pairing guy. He may improve but I’m not in love with his skill set so I guess I am betting against it. I see Myers as a solid 2RD with some offense. I see Benning being caught or passed by Bear or Berglund or Mantha in a year or two.
    Cap difference would be more than 3.5 million. I don’t see Benning getting mote than 1.5 and would prefer it closer to 1 million. Oilers would definitely have to dump a salary to make room so Russell or Sekera would have to waive.
    When deciding if Winnipeg would trade for Russell you have to put yourself in their shoes. If you had Morrisey, Kulkov, Chiarot and Morrow would you want Russell and his 4 million dollar contract. After watching Chiarot and Morrow in these playoffs I would say NO.
    But if you had cap issues would you trade a 2RD for a 4 million cheaper 3RD. You probably would.
    From Edmontons perspective Myers contract is a double edged sword. It’s expensive, but it’s only for 1 year. And he is an upgrade for that year. If you like him you resign him and trade Sekera or Russell or both next summer.
    Shouldn’t be hard to replace Benning next year. Lot easier than filling the hole higher up the order. Most people would be satisfied with Russell or Auvitu at 3RD.

  199. Confused says:

    who,

    So we are just ignoring Winniepags cap, how are they fixing it?

    Teams pay for a 4M plus cap dump, not receive assets.

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