Strawberry Moon

by Lowetide

In late June, the Edmonton Oilers will draft another crop of prospects who will (hopefully) blossom into productive players—maybe even receive Stanley from Connor McDavid on an early summer night in the days ahead. What would you like from an Oilers draft? High risk? Or a predictable list foretold by those who rank these things before the event? Interesting question.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Nuge finds a sweet spot in the heart of the order.
  • Lowetide: Milan Lucic at a crossroads after disastrous season.
  • Jonathan Willis: The problem was never Ryan Strome, it was Oilers’ expectations.
  • Justin Bourne: What the other 30 GM’s can learn from Vegas Golden Knights.
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s outstanding 2017-18 season.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

OILERS AT THE 2016 DRAFT

  • This is Player, where they were chosen, Bob McKenzie’s ranking, then Craig Button, Corey Pronman and then mine.
  • This was the last draft before Keith Gretzky.
  • Edmonton hung in on the consensus through three selections, but went walkabout with two third-round picks.
  • The three best picks, two years later, may end up being Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyler Benson and Filip Berglund.
  • The three third-round picks are kind of strange looking now. Should have stayed with the consensus, men like Josh Mahura were available when Edmonton chose Matt Cairns.

OILERS AT THE 2017 DRAFT

  • This is the first Keith Gretzky draft.
  • It is also what we can safely call a predictable list, with the first four selections universally known and ranked “in the range” or better (higher).
  • The fifth selection, Maksimov, might end up delivering huge value. Lots of criticism of Craig Button for his opinions, but he had Maksimov as a third-round selection. Both McKenzie and Pronman gave him honorable mentions.

If we use this style as a template, what might we come up with for this year’s draft? Let’s have a look.

OILERS AT THE 2018 DRAFT

  • I chose Noah Dobson because the consensus would have been Wahlstrom and I don’t think he will be there at No. 9 overall. I would choose Ty Smith. Dobson’s NHLE is 24.0, he isn’t a dynamic offensive player, but can play defense and skate well. Steve Kournianos describes him as a  “more of a facilitator than an orchestrator” in a recent article.
  • Allan McShane (NHLE: 25.7) has first-round talent.
  • Blade Jenkins (NHLE: 17.1) is close to a draft and follow, as he was born August 11, 2000.
  • Alexis Gravel is among the highest rated goalies in a down year at the position.
  • Trey Fix-Wolansky (NHLE: 31, this is his second year eligible) is another player with great hands. Edmonton may draft him and with good reason. He would be the first Oil Kings player chosen by the team since Mitchell Moroz in 2012.
  • Semyon Der-Arguchinstev (NHLE: 20) has very little buzz going on but is another skill player.

We can’t get the identical effect of one year ago, as Pronman’s/McKenzie’s lists are not yet completed. Still, I think that gives us a template of expectations for this year.

YAMAMOTO VS. DEBRINCAT

  • I’ve been using Alex DeBrincat as a Yamamoto comparable for some time now, wanted to run the final numbers (and add a wrinkle).
  • When discussing Alex DeBrincat, very important to mention his junior linemates. Connor McDavid, Dylan Strome, Taylor Raddysh, no doubt some zooming going on there. That said, DeBrincat was (and is) a splendid offensive player.
  • Kailer Yamamoto (Sept. 1998) and DeBrincat (Dec. 1997) are both late birthdays, making the comparison apt.
  • Yamamoto trails all down the line, but almost caught DeBrincat in his final 27 games (after WJ’s).
  • Oilers would be wise to have Yamamoto spend part (or all) of next season in Bakersfield, I don’t think they’ll have the discipline to do it. It’s a no lose situation if they do it, though. The young man pushes up with good performance and the organization adds depth and balance from the farm.

JOEL PERSSON

Mike Zanier (former Oilers goalie) is a hockey analyst in Sweden and drops me a line from time to time. He mentioned Joel Persson in a recent exchange (EP bio here). He’s a righty puck mover who would cost only a contract. Zanier said “He came to camp a number 7 D. Was the QB of the PP by October. Started out more as a offensive player but has developed into a solid D & still QB to the best PP in the SHL. Though Elias Pettersson might have something to do with that, he’s definitely worth looking at (for an NHL team).”

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Bob Arctor

Jethro Tull:
Anybody remember NewAgeSys and when he wanted to sue teams for ripping off game plays he came up with?

Did he post here? I thought was an expert over at copperand blue.

VOR

OriginalPouzar:
Does anyone actually understand these posts (or even want to)?

The thing that befuddles me is that rickithebear in other posting on other sites writes in perfectly coherent, flawless English. He is cogent, insightful and highly mathematically sophisticated on those sites. Why he posts garbage here is beyond me.

Occasionally, in his rants here he slips and says something that reveals he has interesting, useful things to say. Then he goes back to posting gibberish. I can’t even come up with a wild guess as to why.

Jethro Tull

Anybody remember NewAgeSys and when he wanted to sue teams for ripping off game plays he came up with?

Tesla's Hair

OriginalPouzar:
Does anyone actually understand these posts (or even want to)?

“I know one thing; that I now know nothing” – Plato/Socrates/Tupac

OriginalPouzar

Does anyone actually understand these posts (or even want to)?

OriginalPouzar

Stuart Skinner stops 36 of 39 in a 4-3 OT win.

rickithebear

Thier have been clear progressions to my analytical approach.
Game analysis as a fan. ( top down view)

Game analysis relative to a young player ( system chaos)

Fitness (above elite standard)

Mechanism analysis thru video review of best players for my position.( baseline repeatability)

Performing correctly in coaches system ( read repeatability) ( team trust)

Repeat mechanics training ( unthinking Pavlovian mechanic response to correct play)

Micheal Aubichon (world leader ) Reliability Centered Maintenance, Developed Montreal Minor hockey Association first computer driven player database late 90’s early 00’s. Taught me check list and Emperical approach to mechanisms. Density based red flagging and seeking out successful mechanism.

Finding Lowetides site 2005.

Vic Ferrari

2yr of Poster Ron like minded mechanism analysis.

Refelecting on past conversations about my hockey observations with past
School mates Bill Lehne, Brad & Dave Tippett, (primary)
Mark Lamb (Jr High)
friends – Ron Gunnville, Terry Lange
and
Hodgson, Baumgartner, Henry, Kolstad, T. Bergen.

Discussions with scouts
Hockey Canada (summers PANP)
WHL (near Hanna) about my theories.

Chance run ins:

Mike Valley (Disney World) past Dallas goalie coach, founder Elite Goalies.
Full agreement with
Table hockey movement theory
(PH1 tracking – movement with puck) and (PH2 tracking – puck path)
Open/closed shot theory.

Jeannine and Dean McNabb (Hanna Burger Baron)
Started talking with Dean, found out he was a goalie and explained; Open Closed/ shot and PH1/PH2 tracking. He found it quite interseting.

Jeannine then asked about her son in the Buffalo organization.
I asked her last name Mcnabb.
I told her Brayden was elite at rehearsal skill of defending the front of the net.
The high dangerarea.
That like Buffalo most teams did not understand HD concept.
That it would be teams that kept HD d that might trade for him.
LAK traded for him weeks later.
Recently contacted her and she ( one of many) said I could cite our conversation.
And
Tell Everyone my theory eased her mind about her sons future.

rickithebear

WayneKenov: Appeal to authority
Ad Hominem
Appeal to Ignorance

There’s only been 26 rookies since 2010 to put up 50+ points, and most came into the league older than Maksimov.

Desjardins charts are up to age 22.

The numbers are reflective of age 22 performance.

I have not gone back on age of.
Would expect 19yr .323/ (.40 + (.10x.7)) = 69% of the numbers
Then 20yr 323/(.35 + (.05 x .7)) = 84% of numbers
Then yr 21 .323/(.32 + (.03 x .7)) = 95% of numbers
Then yr 22.

Sorry for not defining progression to 22yr.

Biggus Dickus

rickithebear: Opinion: Apoint of view not based on facts or knowledge.

The father of analytical team, comp, ZS, and equivalency is desjardins.
At behind the net.
Both league equivalency and CHL production by league.

What you will observe is younger players translate performance better
The draft year (17) eligible curveof CHL production
First day of draft year sept 16 (1/365) translates to 50% of chl production
Last day of draft year sept 15 (365/365) translates to 75% of chl production

Draft year +1 (18) eligible curve
First day of draft year translates to 40% of chl
Last day of Draft yr translates to 50% of chl

Draft yr +2 (19)
First day 35% of chl
Last day 40% of chl

Draft yr +3 (20)
First day 32% of chl
Last day 35% of chl

Draft +4 (21)
First day 30%
Last day 32%

Draft +5 (22)
First day 29%
Last day 30%

This is a mechanism that is identified from datum analysis.
That shows physical superiority thru age allows for greater chl production.
But means less translation to NHL.
Younger translate more cause of superior skill.

Which is reflected in every male sport. 18-27yrs

League equivalency is accepted cause of belief in superior skill in the league.

Both theories are reflective of superior skill one by volume ( lge) and other age

Kiril maximov age equivalency is .470
The league he plays in is OHL we equat it to best CHL league
.323/.323 = 1
Age .470 x lge 1 = .470

Maximov draft +1
62gm 34g 46a 80p
((34/62) x.47) x 82gm = 21g
((46/62) x.47) x 82gm = 29a
21g + 29a = 50p

20evg 27eva 47 Evp
((20/62) x .47) x82 = 12-13 evg
((27/62) x .47) x 82 = 17 -18 Eva

12ppg 17ppa 29 ppp
((12/62) x .47) x 82) = 7-8g
((17/62) x .47) x82) = 10-11

So while it is nice that you have an opinion.
I will take the god father of equivalency who identified its importance based on skill volume and skill by age.

It is a shame desjardins failed to present them combined as I did.
I would like to believe that it was probably in his mind.

So everybody
Thier is the reason based on having both because of data.
Explain to me why your exclusion of age is fact based and not an opinion driven by your bias towards me.

Step up boys!

No opinion please!

Appeal to authority
Ad Hominem
Appeal to Ignorance

There’s only been 26 rookies since 2010 to put up 50+ points, and most came into the league older than Maksimov. I guarantee he doesn’t put up a 50 pt season if he plays in the NHL next year. The problem with age based is that you are comparing players that aren’t comparable. For example, McDavid probably falls into the range in your calculation. It overinflates him because you are binning him where he doesn’t belong. If you put him in a group of his peers, you would find he has an NHLE of 0.

There were 32 players to debut at 18 in the NHL since 2010. Small sample, but over 30. But wait, only 14 played more than 10 games. Of that you only have a handful of CHL guys

Jeff Skinner
MacKinnan
RNH
Ekblad
Galchenyuk
Chychrun
Sprong
Grigorenko
Matteau

If you pick a reasonable cutoff like 30 games, you have exclusively top end picks. No intelligent person in the world would project Maksimov from that sample, but that’s just my opinion.

Craig Zonit

I hope we avoid taking Bouchard at 9 (if available). Eye test warning, but watching some of his highlights tonight, I feel his skating pales in comparison to the other D available. His shot doesn’t impress, though his vision seems good. Hope we shoot for the moon instead with the pick, even if it means some years of development and a later contributor. Merkley’s almost a full year younger and in the range for P1/GP.

rickithebear

russ99:
Taking shorter skilled D in the top third of the first round scares me.

All the best D are 6′ and above. Just have bad Brad Hunt memories.

I’d rather we go for the safer pick, Veleno.

Skilled,

Skilled In the off driven analytics of the past
or
the repeativve cup core structure skills (HD and OSH) of me.

rickithebear

Woodguy v2.0:
rickithebear,

How many years have you “insightful experts” ignored my mechanism (physic) approach. 7-8 years?

One cannot ignore what one does not see.

We would also accept:

One cannot ignore what is buried under a porch

Really buddy:

So you could not see it for years.
I accept that.
I expected that.

You did not get it or create it.

It is all dependent on Ricki,s box.

Who,s box?

Not woodguy box!

Ricki,s box.

Anyhow!

Take me thru your unit structure and zonal defence and what creates CF and CA.

Remember HD:LD 5:1

Play is reflective of 4. things and 2 people
Desjardins
A. Team, comp, ZS which gives you situati9nal mean performance.
Rickithebear
B. HD theory ( rickisbox)
HDSH Density
Elite HD dmen
Save% mean established by Dpairs.
Elite HD goalies relative to save% mean
C. Performance repeatability
Baseline
Per shift
D. Open closed/shots
0% corsi
Elite 0% corsi dmen
Open sh Density
Open sh goalies relative to OSH save% mean.

russ99

Taking shorter skilled D in the top third of the first round scares me.

All the best D are 6′ and above. Just have bad Brad Hunt memories.

I’d rather we go for the safer pick, Veleno.

Woodguy v2.0

Woodguy v2.0,

Honarable Mention:

STEPHEN.JOHNS -1.06 – Slightly negative in RelTGF% over last 2 years but positive RelTCF%. Was positive RelTGF% this year. With Honka coming on Johns might shake loose and I think he’d be worth a flier. Is RFA without a contract right now.

The fact that Hitch ran Pateryn w/ Hamihuis and they got more TOI vs Elite than Klingberg-Lindell makes me more wary of Johns.

If Hitch picks Pateryn over Johns then maybe its best to stay away from Johns.

Speaking of low cost UFA’:

Pateryn made $700K last year and saw more TOI vs Elites than Klingberg.

Didn’t do well, but didn’t get killed either.

Sliding him into a 2RD role short term and down to 3rd if Benning earns 2RD for under $1M/yr is probably good business.

Gret99zky

Lowetide:
Oilers frontrunners for goalie goalie Mikko Koskinen, as per Friedman.

Hmm, too many Ks.

“This isn’t baseball.” — Bill James

rickithebear

Would guy:
HDSH% 5: LDSH% 1
My position is (5/6) of goal success is dependent on HD penetration.
But CA is reflective of the failed CF from the structure used to penetrate HD.
3-2-1 Normal after failed CF
Fwds deep high % of no NZ trap, D collapse to defend HD
Fwds return to high OZ position; potential for NZ trap,and press of OZ entry, then collapse to HD area.
3-1-1-1 Rover after failed CF
4 deep close to 100% of no NZ trap and free path to HD area
3 deep 1 mid high % of no NZ trap and free path to HD area
3 fwds deep high % of no NZ trap, D collapse to defend HD.
Fwds in high Oz position; potential for NZ trap, and press OZ entry, collapse to HD area.
4-1-1 after a failed CF
A failed HD def nightmare.

CF% as a def measure is nuts.
Structure and failed CF mechanism data shows that CA is largely the bat shit crazy love for over penetration by Fwds and OFFENSIVE dmen.

When measuring a def dman performance the measures are
A. Cummulative HDSH% (HDSH Density)/CA
B. High 0%corsi dmen: (blocks + misses + closed sh)/CA
C. A&b cummulative openHDSH% (OHDSH Density)/CA

So far you have not shown me structure or machanism that justifies your incorrect abitrary choice of CF%. IT appeals to the masses and is makes easily accepted.
The truth is not about easy.
I am glad you accepted my evidence that Fenwick was terrible for analysis.

But give me your justification for GF% and relCF%
The relative affect is acctuslly the dman,s CA created by teammates.

Do not let your bias towards me. Create the desire to present terrible analytical approach.

Gret99zky

WayneKenov:
Trade the pick, don’t trade the pick, what does it matter in the end?

They will bungle it somehow.

#becauseOilers

VOR

This is from two great interviews with Martin Necas in Blesk which is admittedly a very over the top tabloid. It is like Bild in Germany. Definitely a guilty pleasure. This was during the early stages of their playoffs.

….Was it a decisive moment, the two unanswered goals?

“Probably yes. And our game in general. We played aggressively, completely different than the previous two matches at home.  Even though we won one game we didn’t play well. Pilsen may have played us a bit, got us off our game, so we went back to it, aggressively, and it paid off. We remembered we want to win and what it takes. The goal to make it 2:1 was a bit broken. They had that empty net and didn’t score, then we scored. We left it a little late. But our whole team did a good job. “…

Pilsen say you are playing too aggressively, being dirty. How do you respond?

“I can’t help what they say about me. I have to play my game. And my game is to go hard and be aggressive. If that upsets the other team, great.”

https://isport.blesk.cz/clanek/hokej-tipsport-extraliga-generali-play-off/331727/hvezdny-talent-komety-necas-nekdy-je-i-vyhoda-zacinat-u-soupere.html

Confused

One for the Wilde list, Anthony Duclair

Getting racial slurs from the stands

Corey Snziderjer thinks he will be to expensive from CHI to resign, currently 1.2M

Woodguy v2.0

rickithebear,

How many years have you “insightful experts” ignored my mechanism (physic) approach. 7-8 years?

One cannot ignore what one does not see.

We would also accept:

One cannot ignore what is buried under a porch

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer: Because his contract has a year left and they can’t keep him long term.But he wouldn’t be cheap.You would pretty much have to give them a younger cheaper version

He’s the type of player that Yz re-signs.

rickithebear

WayneKenov: How did you get this number? Is it meant to model next season as traditional NHLe, or have you modified averages to predict peak career? If it is the former, there is not a chance in hell that that isn’t overinflated.

Opinion: Apoint of view not based on facts or knowledge.

The father of analytical team, comp, ZS, and equivalency is desjardins.
At behind the net.
Both league equivalency and CHL production by league.

What you will observe is younger players translate performance better
The draft year (17) eligible curve of CHL production
First day of draft year sept 16 (1/365) translates to 50% of chl production
Last day of draft year sept 15 (365/365) translates to 75% of chl production

Draft year +1 (18) eligible curve
First day of draft year translates to 40% of chl
Last day of Draft yr translates to 50% of chl

Draft yr +2 (19)
First day 35% of chl
Last day 40% of chl

Draft yr +3 (20)
First day 32% of chl
Last day 35% of chl

Draft +4 (21)
First day 30%
Last day 32%

Draft +5 (22)
First day 29%
Last day 30%

This is a mechanism that is identified from datum analysis.
That shows physical superiority thru age allows for greater chl production.
But means less translation to NHL.
Younger translate more cause of superior skill.

Which is reflected in every male sport. 18-27yrs

League equivalency is accepted cause of belief in superior skill in the league.

Both theories are reflective of superior skill one by volume ( lge) and other age

Kiril maximov age equivalency is .470
The league he plays in is OHL we equat it to best CHL league
.323/.323 = 1
Age .470 x lge 1 = .470

Maximov draft +1
62gm 34g 46a 80p
((34/62) x.47) x 82gm = 21g
((46/62) x.47) x 82gm = 29a
21g + 29a = 50p

20evg 27eva 47 Evp
((20/62) x .47) x82 = 12-13 evg
((27/62) x .47) x 82 = 17 -18 Eva

12ppg 17ppa 29 ppp
((12/62) x .47) x 82) = 7-8g
((17/62) x .47) x82) = 10-11

So while it is nice that you have an opinion.
I will take the god father of equivalency who identified its importance based on skill volume and skill by age.

It is a shame desjardins failed to present them combined as I did.
I would like to believe that it was probably in his mind.

So everybody
Thier is the reason based on having both because of data.
Explain to me why your exclusion of age is fact based and not an opinion driven by your bias towards me.

Step up boys!

No opinion please!

Woodguy v2.0

Pescador: How about Anton Stralman?
How hard would the Oilers have to pull their pants down?

Here’s all RHD who are positive Relative team mate GF AND positive Relative Team mate CF% over the last two years combined.

You tend to see a lot of 3rd pair Dmen who do well on this list, I’ll try to identify them.

I determine 1st/2nd/3rd pair by looking at WoodMoney TOI vs. Elite compared to the other Dmen on their team.

1st pairing guys who appear here are very, very good.

For players to get better GF% and CF% with them *while they play vs the best* is pretty tough to achieve.

I’ll also note if the player has a great partner as that matters a lot.

If I don’t think a player would be available I don’t say too much about him.

Player RelT GF%
TREVOR.VAN RIEMSDYK 12.02 – 3rd pair – With results this good can probably play 2nd pair.
Good results vs Elite this year. Is the reason CAR is moving on from Faulk.

JOHN.KLINGBERG 11.21 – 2nd pair this past year. More sheltered than I thought – still a killer

ROBERT.BORTUZZO 9.95 – 3rd pair – poor results vs elite this year. 29 years old.

JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 9.49 – 2nd/3rd pair – poor results vs elite. Still has great offence.

JOSH.MANSON 8.93 – 1st pair with Lindholm – very good

DOUGIE.HAMILTON 8.70 – 1st pair with Gio – very good

BRANDON.MONTOUR 8.60 – 2nd pair with Fowler – great rookie

JAKE.DOTCHIN 7.51 – A lot of 1st pair with Hedman – good young player

MATT.BENNING 7.35 – mostly 3rd pair but results are good, even vs Elite. I don’t trade him unless is a serious upgrade.

CHRIS.TANEV 7.17 – mostly 1st pair still – still a killer, but health is concern. Probably the highest rated (imo) RHD who is “available” Should be a hard target.

DREW.DOUGHTY 6.47 – Up for Norris again

MATT.DUMBA 6.11 – 2nd pair. Much better goal results than CF%. One of the 2 Dmen who drive SH%.

BRETT.PESCE 6.06 – 1st pair. Killer

CODY.FRANSON 5.19 – 3rd pair mostly. Can’t skate at NHL level anymore, but plays hockey well. Not a target due to skating.

RADKO.GUDAS 4.89 – 2nd/3rd pair. Gets suspended a lot and take a lot of penalties. A favorite of mine. I’d do it if price was reasonable.

RYAN.ELLIS 4.77 – Killer

BRENT.BURNS 3.97 – Riding last year’s unreal numbers. Too much too acquire, too long term on contract, too much on contract.

SHEA.WEBER 3.89 – Still Shea Weber

ADAM.LARSSON 3.72 – Oh Hai Mr. Larsson! All 1st pair with partners who might not be 1st pairing guys. Seriously under rated. If it was Eberle who got traded for him that trade is a win in a heartbeat

ALEX.PETROVIC 3.69 – mostly 2nd pair 2 years ago, 3rd pair this year. Results vs Elites are a concern along with foot speed. Don’t like him as much as I used to.

DAVID.SAVARD 3.61 – mostly results from 2 years ago. All 2nd pair. If cheap to acquire I’d be tempted, but not sold. 3 more years at $4.25

ANTON.STRALMAN 3.59 – some 1st and 2nd. Solid all around

ALEX.PIETRANGELO 3.56 – He’d be higher on the list if Bouwmeester stayed hurt

JOHNNY.BOYCHUK 3.13 – This is all 2 years ago diving this. Too old, contract too long and too much so Chiarelli will probably trade for him.

DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 2.76 – 1st pair killer

BEN.LOVEJOY 2.75 – mostly 3rd pair on bad team. Skating is poor. Looks done.

MATT.NISKANEN 2.67 – another 1st pair killer.

CONNOR.CARRICK 2.23 – all 3rd pair. Who knows what he’ll be

TROY.STECHER 2.13 – lots of 2nd pair. Good vs. Elite. Quietly becoming a quality Dman.

ERIK.KARLSSON 1.83 – Hurt this year which hurt his results. The cost to acquire and salary makes this is high wire act. I’d shy away.

MARK.PYSYK 1.70 – I wanted him since he was a Sabre. 2nd pair. Very good vs Elite. Perfect fit.

JASON.DEMERS 1.36 – 1st pair this year, 2nd last year. Russell being here and not Demers is a crime. Perfect fit on 2RD imo. Chiarelli should have been in on him when FLA shopped him with $1MM retained for a 3rd liner. Mostly 1st this year with OEL. OEL was much better with him than with Hjarmlasson or Goligoski

TYSON.BARRIE 1.16 – Mostly 2nd, some 1st pair. Up and down season this year. Not good vs. Elites, but played a lot with Nemeth who is a marginal NHLer, let alone top 4. I still like him.

COLIN.MILLER 0.52 – 3rd pair. Most of this is 2 years ago, not as good of a year this year.

P.K..SUBBAN 0.45 – much better results this year, even having to play with Emelin in a top 4 role a lot.

JACOB.TROUBA 0.34 – Heavy 1st pair % this year. Very good player

Honarable Mention:

STEPHEN.JOHNS -1.06 – Slightly negative in RelTGF% over last 2 years but positive RelTCF%. Was positive RelTGF% this year. With Honka coming on Johns might shake loose and I think he’d be worth a flier. Is RFA without a contract right now.

treevojo

OriginalPouzar:
How can anyone take that poster seriously with his extreme pretentiousness and condescension?

In order for any zoo to be successful.

It takes a wide variety of animals.

That includes bears.

http://www.lowetideszoo.ca

VOR

I want to re-visit the 9OV for 14OV and 19OV argument

Below is a group of guys you could have drafted at 14 and 19 over the last 10 years:

Matthew Barzal
Sebastian Aho
Jakob Chychrun
Alex DeBrincat
Sebastian Aho
Kailer Yamamoto
Dylan Larkin
David Pastrnak
Andre Burakovsky
Anthony Mantha
Shayne Gostisbehere
Colton Parayko
Nikita Kucherov
Johnny Gaudreau
Evgeny Kuznetzov
Vladimir Tarasenko
Nick Leddy
Tyson Barrie
Erik Karlsson
John Carlson

I don’t know if that team would ever win a game but boy would it be fun to watch.

It isn’t where you pick but how well you draft.

So if you think your scouts are above average trading down can make sense.

,

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar,

Perfect backup goalie for a coach that never plays backup goalies. He can just phone in to work from Russia

OriginalPouzar

How can anyone take that poster seriously with his extreme pretentiousness and condescension?

OriginalPouzar

Lots of talk out there about the Oilers signing Mikko Koskinen when his KHL contract expires on April 30.

His numbers look great but, just by looking at the stats, he seems to have split the net with Igor Shestyorkin (who played 3 less games) and then have near identical numbers. Igor Shestyorkin is 22, 7 years younger.

Anyone know the deal?

leadfarmer

Lowetide,

Oh god I hope that’s not our backup. First season of 930 sp which seams to be the number that all the KHL goalies worth anything get. Splits time with shestyorkin this year and similar numbers but last year they were a lot worse. He is the playoff starter though

leadfarmer

rickithebear,

Dynamic offensively has nothing to do with defensive play. It is a very different skill set. But I bet you want to argue that Lidstrom was not a good d man cause he put up points

rickithebear

Woodguy v2.0: Agreed.

“not a dynamic offensive player, but moves the puck quickly and efficiently” is what EDM exactly needs.

Anton Stralman type.

Nice prose!
Not a dynamic offensive player (dman) Moves the puck quickly and Efficiently.

But what is the mechanics of (not dynamic offensive) and (quickly and efficiently)

How many years have you “insightful experts” ignored my mechanism (physic) approach. 7-8 years?

Here is a hint Offensive dmen abandon the defence of HD area and are 4 times less efficient at scoring

“Not dynamic offensive (prose)” translates to “defends the HD area (mechanism)”
“Quick and efficient (prose)” translates to “get the pluck to the fwds ASAP ( mechanism)”

“Hockey is a Physic(al) Game!”

High even assist rate from passes but is still top60 hd dman.

Biggus Dickus

rickithebear:
For those on here who believe a 17yr old is not physically the same as a 22yr old.
Age & league equivalent NHLE
Maksimov draft +1 .470 age/lge NHLE
82gm 21g 29a 50pt
13evg 17eva 30 Evp
7ppg 11ppa 18ppp
1shg 1sha 2 shp

How did you get this number? Is it meant to model next season as traditional NHLe, or have you modified averages to predict peak career? If it is the former, there is not a chance in hell that that isn’t overinflated.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0: I can’t see why they’d make him available.

Because his contract has a year left and they can’t keep him long term. But he wouldn’t be cheap. You would pretty much have to give them a younger cheaper version

Biggus Dickus

Woodguy v2.0:
Hall is a third line player ranks up there with Draisaitl’s closest comp is Joel Colburne.

He could easily be a third line winger on the Olympic team or All star team. Depends on the year though.

Woodguy v2.0

Pescador: How about Anton Stralman?
How hard would the Oilers have to pull their pants down?

I can’t see why they’d make him available.

Woodguy v2.0

Hall is a third line player ranks up there with Draisaitl’s closest comp is Joe Colburne.

rickithebear

For those on here who believe a 17yr old is not physically the same as a 22yr old.
Age & league equivalent NHLE
Maksimov draft +1 .470 age/lge NHLE
82gm 21g 29a 50pt
13evg 17eva 30 Evp
7ppg 11ppa 18ppp
1shg 1sha 2 shp

Tesla's Hair

smellyglove:
Lowetiders,

It’s called NHL expats (www.nhlexpats.ca)

SG!

Nice work on the site. Worked perfect for me on my mac safari. Was interesting to see how players did on new teams. Will keep it bookmarked for future reference.

Biggus Dickus

Kinger_Oil.redux: – angry much?I was doing some self reflection

– hall would be awesome on an awesome team scoring on the third line. See Jessel.

– when he’s not scoring and the going gets tough he’s not the ideal stud on a team

– heck even the greatest winger in hockey one of the great scorers I. History he needs more. I don’t understand that Washington team. Also bad luck. Even if they wi. They have to play Pittsburgh just to get to the semis!

I feel for Washington going through Pittsburgh every year, sort of like the Jets and Flames back in the day. That said, the verbal on the playoff format being unfair doesn’t really fly with me. Boston and Tampa look to be the other half of the second round, and they are equally huge threats to Pittsburgh. I don’t know how the playoff format story got so much play this year. The weakness of certain divisions is apparent lower down imo.

Metropolitan: Top team WAS-105 pts Lowest playoff team NJD-97pts. First team out of playoffs CAR-83pt
Atlantic: Top team TBAY-117 pts Lowest playoff team TOR-105pts. First team out of playoffs FLO-95pts, then Detroit 73pts.
So in the whole of the eastern conference there was one bubble team, and the point spread in either division is 8pts. I think you could have a reasonable argument about the Atlantic being zoomed by the dogshit teams in their division. I think it is hard to make the argument that TOR puts up WAS numbers in the Metropolitan. As I see it, the difference between playoff teams is miniscule in the east, and the difference between playoffs and not is huge. At the very least, I don’t see a path that is significantly easier than the others.

Central: Top team NAS-117 pts Lowest playoff team COL-95pts. First team out of playoffs STL-94pt, then DAL 92 and CHI 76 – Still the strongest conference in hockey top to bottom, which makes what Nashville and Winnipeg did all the more impressive.

Pacific: Top team VGK-109 pts Lowest playoff team LA-98pts. First team out of playoffs Cal-84.

There are 2 more bubble teams in the west, which makes me think that a 20 team playoff is more fair. The gap between the top 19 and the bottom 12 is substantial. The Pacific is the most mediocre division in hockey, and it’s hard to believe the top teams didn’t run up the points. I think there is an argument to be made here about the Central having a harder road, but I’m not sure it’s so significant that you eliminate the division rival strategy.

pts2pndr

Confused:
pts2pndr,

TB enters the second round with Johnson, Point and Gourde

There are also people that win the lottery doesn’t make it a right way to plan your financial well being. I am looking at the overall as there will always be exceptions!

GMB3

Kinger_Oil.redux: – angry much?I was doing some self reflection

– hall would be awesome on an awesome team scoring on the third line. See Jessel.

– when he’s not scoring and the going gets tough he’s not the ideal stud on a team

– heck even the greatest winger in hockey one of the great scorers I. History he needs more. I don’t understand that Washington team. Also bad luck. Even if they wi. They have to play Pittsburgh just to get to the semis!

A forum on the internet seems like the type of place to do some “self-reflection” if your trying to make a point.

In kingers world a hart trophy finalist is a third line scoring winger. If you actually want to compare him to Kessel, dig in on the numbers. He’s driven play more throughout his career. You say if he’s not scoring he doesn’t do much? Who does? Scoring more than the other team is how you win games. Milan Lucic doesn’t score or do anything when he’s not scoring.

When the going gets tough he’s not an ideal stud? Show me some evidence of this. Anything. Baseless narrative. The going was tough for him all year. Look at how much he outscored his teammates. Looks pretty ideal to me.

He doesn’t do anything when he’s not scoring. Yet his 5v5 GF% says he is, because he is still outscoring the opposition. An eighth seed lost to the one seed. Probably not their star players fault.

Angry much? It’s not anger. Mostly surprise and disappointment

Pescador

Woodguy v2.0: Agreed.

“not a dynamic offensive player, but moves the puck quickly and efficiently” is what EDM exactly needs.

Anton Stralman type.

How about Anton Stralman?
How hard would the Oilers have to pull their pants down?

rope-a-dope

Talking drafts and Chiarelli, looks as though Bjork, Donato, Grzelcyk, Heinen, Pastrnak, Krug (undrafted free agent signing) from the current Bruins roster were drafted/brought in during his tenure. I’d also guess that some of his influence lingered over the 2015 draft which yielded two roster players (Carlo and DeBrusk). He has made a few errors in pro procurement but looks fairly astute at amateur procurement.

Kinger_Oil.redux

GMB3: Probably because Mark Spector wrote an article about it? Or maybe Bob Stauffer said so on the radio?

Yes let’s blame 1 player for the shortcomings of a team. That makes so much sense. Connor McDavids only won one playoff series in 3 seasons. Same line of thinking

Better yet, the Oilers won a playoff series with Eberle and were in the bottom ten of the league without him this year.

Truly incredible the conclusions some people can come too.

Face meet palm

– angry much? I was doing some self reflection

– hall would be awesome on an awesome team scoring on the third line. See Jessel.

– when he’s not scoring and the going gets tough he’s not the ideal stud on a team

– heck even the greatest winger in hockey one of the great scorers I. History he needs more. I don’t understand that Washington team. Also bad luck. Even if they wi. They have to play Pittsburgh just to get to the semis!

Kinger_Oil.redux

Lowetide,

– this is how I see it. Kailer is either going to be a complementary player scoring a lot of goals or he isn’t him g to make it

– he’s actually a good test for this org. If hey yak him and teach him a lesson on how he has to be a 200 foot player he’s going to fail. If they put him in a role to score goals and he scores them he will be more than fine

– which is why for 1mm if they can protect him on 3rw role and pp they are going to find out quick if he can make it.

– sure send him to Bakersfield for a bit but he needs to play with skill and score goals

– I don’t have a problem with him with strome and another non rookie getting bats in the 6 7 spot and hopefully move up

– his development should be different than pool. He’s got a chance next year and as long as it’s not cmd winger I can see it working for 1mm and 15 goals.

geowal

Lowetide,

I sure hope Benson doesn’t want Pouliot’s role…did he even make the NHL ? ?

Tell Benson they want him to be guy carbonneau…if he doesn’t balk at that, he’s ahead of Pouliot already!

Confused

pts2pndr,

TB enters the second round with Johnson, Point and Gourde