Umbrella Summer

by Lowetide

I sometimes wonder if people realize exactly how many draft picks Peter Chiarelli traded at 2015’s draft weekend. Not only did the new general manager trade a mountain of picks, he happened to be standing in the deepest draft in a dozen years at the time.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: The Oilers shop the world for you. (will post link).
  • Lowetide: Nuge finds a sweet spot in the heart of the order.
  • Lowetide: Milan Lucic at a crossroads after disastrous season.
  • Jonathan Willis: The problem was never Ryan Strome, it was Oilers’ expectations.
  • Justin Bourne: What the other 30 GM’s can learn from Vegas Golden Knights.
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s outstanding 2017-18 season.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

https://twitter.com/simonsnake70/status/987445409739104256

I often do mock drafts leading up to the actual edition. It’s a fun way to discover some of the lesser names and to gauge what might be available. Since my list is “math hearts run free” there’s a long list of smaller skill guys on my list who get chosen the following season (don’t ask me why). As a way of showing you just how many picks the Oilers owned on Connor McDavid lottery day, here’s my 2015 mock from draft morning (source).

2015 OILERS MOCK

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid. My guess is he’s at center ice for opening faceoff 2015-16, with Hall and Eberle alongside. Music!
  • No. 16 overall: C Joel Eriksson Ek. Impressive C, good offense and a gritty style.
  • No. 33 overall: D Travis Dermott. Effective offensive defender, can play defense.
  • No. 57 overall: D Ethan Bear. Solid defenseman, built like a brick outhouse, fine shot.
  • No. 79 overall: G Matej Tomek. Tomek and Jalad at Tanagra. He’s a good goalie.
  • No. 86 overall: C Tyler Soy. Very talented player, spiked in the second half.
  • No. 117 overall: D Jeremy Lauzon. Big defender with a range of skills. May be long gone before this.
  • No. 124 overall: R Keegan Kolesar. Tough winger with some skill, Oilers looking for this type. He can play.
  • No. 154 overall: C Alexandre Goulet. Checking C if he makes it, does a lot well at evens.
  • No. 184 overall: C Tyson Baillie. Extreme skill, hard worker, speed only average. Could be a home run pick. Seriously.

That’s 10 picks in an enormous draft. My selections would have gathered impressive quality, perhaps Oilers scouts could have done better. I believe they would have. The main point here is this: If, for some reason, you believe Peter Chiarelli will hold back the water on trading No. 9 overall this summer, may I suggest you have it wrong? He had 10 picks in the deepest draft since 2003 and clipped that number by four. Picks 16, 33, 57, 79 and 86 were all traded away. Mr. Chiarelli is aggressive on draft weekend, and I don’t think changing to decaf will help.

  • Peter Chiarelli: At some point, yes I would put that pick in play. It would have to make sense, there’s a whole cluster of D that I like you know, but it would certainly be consistent to what we’re trying to do if we look. Again if we win the lottery or if we’re in the top three, I’d have to re-think that, but we could end up, well we we’re No. 9 now, we could end up 12, right, so I’d have to look at it. I wouldn’t rule it out.”

The least intrusive trade option is the No. 9 overall selection in terms of impacting next year’s team. Based on comments sent to me after yesterday’s post, you (as a group) have gathered around Evan Bouchard as the correct choice and that’s set in stone. I still think they would prefer a forward and have a candle lit for Ty Smith if they’re going blue. I would not trade the pick, tell you why at the end.

OILERS DRAFT PICKS, 2018

  • First Round—No. 9 overall
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall
  • Fourth Round—No. 102 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. Montoya has now covered the condition. It is a fourth).
  • Fifth Round—No. 131 overall
  • Sixth Round—No. 162 overall
  • Seventh Round—No. 193 overall

BUBBLING UNDER

Here are the players under control to the Oilers organization who are currently not signed to a North American pro contract. Date next to their name is the deadline for the organization to sign them (via CapFriendly).

  1. L Aidan Muir (NCAA) August 15, 2018.
  2. RC Tyler Vesel (NCAA) August 15, 2018.
  3. G Stuart Skinner (WHL) June 1, 2019.
  4. RC Joey Dudek (NCAA) August 15, 2019.
  5. RD Vincent Desharnaies (NCAA) August 15, 2019.
  6. RD Filip Berglund (SHL) June 1, 2020.
  7. LD Markus Niemelainen (Mestis) June 1, 2020.
  8. L Graham McPhee (NCAA) August 15, 2020.
  9. RD John Marino (NCAA) August 15, 2020.
  10. LD Matt Cairns (NCAA) August 15, 2021.
  11. RD Phil Kemp (NCAA) August 15, 2021.
  12. RC Aapeli Rasanen (NCAA) August 15, 2021.
  13. C Skyler Brind’Amour (BCHL). No deadline stated.
  14. LC Roman Horak. Indefinite.
  15. LC Bogdan Yakimov. Indefinite.

If I had to bet on Edmonton signing just one of these names over the summer, it would be Stuart Skinner. After that, John Marino. He’s a righty, is 20, and has delivered two strong seasons for Harvard. It might be time to turn pro. Muir and Vesel need to be signed by August 15, not certain either man gets an NHL deal.

I am writing about this over at The Athletic this morning, article should be up today or tomorrow. I originally included four goalies as options, looks like Mikko Koskinen might be the one. I’ll say two things about him this morning: He has been good for some time at that level and his numbers do not separate him from his backup or other good KHL netminders. If Edmonton is shopping in the KHL aisle, the contract is likely to be cap friendly—important in the summer of frugal. I am encouraged in that the story dovetails with my article on February 2 about a quiet summer around the edges. The one tweak I would make in that item: The big asset in is likely to be a right-handed puck mover instead of a scoring winger. I do believe Chiarelli will spend his money on defense (again) and get frugal on the wing and in goal.

DON’T TRADE THE PICK!

I don’t remember who told me, maybe it isn’t even true. At some point, I became convinced that each season has a varying degree of ‘top 10 overall’ talent (partly because teams apparently judge drafts in this way). Edmonton drafts No. 9 overall this year, there’s a chance the pick moves to No. 1 overall or No. 12 overall. Chances are it is 9 or 10.

I count 10 prospects who can safely be included as a top-10 rated player. My list (alpha) is Adam Boqvist, Evan Bouchard, Rasmus Dahlin, Joel Farabee, Quinn Hughes, Ty Smith, Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, Oliver Wahlstrom, Filip Zadina.

Edmonton will have at least two of those names available to them at No. 9 overall. I’ll guess Boqvist and Farabee. Simon is right. Take the pick unless someone overwhelms you and that includes helping with the cap issue.

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frjohnk

If true, $2.5M per year over 2 years for a backup who has played 4 games in the NHL seems a bit steep to me.

Kinger_Oil.redux

VOR,

– It makes sense that optimal development would by a significant amout, trump actual draftingin terms of playings making it to NHL

-Hockey seems to be in the dark ages with respect to development. They few kids I know now that are drafted by teams (in late rounds): they basically show up to their teams training camp, they know where they are in the pecking order, and get sent back after whatever stage and are told to “work on your edges” or whatever.

– Contrast that with the culture ingrained in Baseball, where development is a massive organizational focus: and even increasingly so. Now baseball by its nature affords development, but it is a centralized thing.

– Some teams in Hockey seem to be getting better at it. The Leafs for instance, their farm team is in the same city: the Leafs training facility is shared with the AHL team.

– Look at the old boys running our “Development” no sports background, no Medical, no skills guys: just a bunch of old boys who weren’t good enough to become head coaches or GM’s

OriginalPouzar

7 years of post-secondary education, partner in one of Canada’s largest national law firms, accommodations in a number of publications re: “Canada’s top lawyers” and i swear I’ve understood about 1/3 of the posts in this thread.

Feeling very inferior this morning – going to have to take it out on opposing counsel and use some high-end negotiation techniques.

meanashell11

VOR:
The Gaussian Copula thing was a joke.

I am working on a better verbal description of what I am seeing and will hopefully post that early this week. I am really having a hard time turning what I can see in my head and on my computer screen into words. A lot of professors spent a lot of time beating into my head that this probably means I don’t truly understand it myself yet.

For now imagine you can create (yes this is a simplification and I lack some critical data points) a 3 dimensional space by plotting perceived risk vs perceived reward vs age at time of draft as measured in months from youngest player to oldest player eligible to be drafted.

Now take the nominal variable, draft position and give each pick a 3 dimensional coordinate, perceived risk, perceived reward, and age on draft day.

Now plot those coordinates in your 3D space. That plot is given by a parabolic function. Except there are distortions. Some of the distortions I can explain. Some I can’t. But I can easily see that the distortions matter.

The math is just the space things happen in if that makes any sense. What is happening is driven by game play, psychology, economics, and sociology. For example, there is a substantial distortion at the top end of the draft that appears to be a rather slavish following of the BM list.

I am thinking of having locally based lowetiders over to my place and running the model (and Hudson yes I use R) complete with animation. I just have no idea how many of you are locally based. Then I will preview the AI I have developed for drafting which started from some of these same ideas and which then went madly off on its own. I am pretty sure then it will be very clear to some of you. Though possibly still not to me.

Are any of you interested?

I am also hard at work on setting up my own blog for those of you scattered around the globe.

VOR, are you familiar with Litterman’s (1996) “Hot Spots and Hedges”. It is a 3-D graph of multi-variant risk. I was at GS when he published this piece and it, if memory is correct, seems to do what you are asking for, at least for multi asset class risk.

GMB3

deardylan: What about employing 3 different intelligences on the Spider-Team:

1) Someone with high EQ who can ask the right question with the right people?
2) Directing the highest IQ black widow spider computer programmer to calculate the answer in the fastest possible time?
3) Give the Green light to someone with ActionQ like McGyver to solve the rest in the most effect manner?

Quote attributed to Picasso: “Computers are useless. They can only give you the answers”

You are an interesting member of this community

Tesla's Hair

Lowetide: Still, if you have a giant math problem the equivalent of 200 black widow spiders and it’s in the next room, best to get someone who knows about math spiders.

What about employing 3 different intelligences on the Spider-Team:

1) Someone with high EQ who can ask the right question with the right people?
2) Directing the highest IQ black widow spider computer programmer to calculate the answer in the fastest possible time?
3) Give the Green light to someone with ActionQ like McGyver to solve the rest in the most effect manner?

Quote attributed to Picasso: “Computers are useless. They can only give you the answers”

Scungilli Slushy

Lowetide: Still, if you have a giant math problem the equivalent of 200 black widow spiders and it’s in the next room, best to get someone who knows about math spiders.

Truth, I hate those things.

VOR

Santa:
VOR,

I have not read Humphrey’s.Most of my math is Algebra, and of course basic calculus and differential equations.I’ve not studied any algebraic geometry or topology.I’m interested in possible applications of group theory to data analysis, and was curious as to what you’re doing with it.I’m aware that people have very recently started using Lie algebras with sports data, is this what you’re doing?Do you have any articles you would recommend with regards to this topic?

I use Lie groups in my attempts to develop AI pattern recognition in draft analysis. The human eye and human mind can seriously mislead us when we look at data. Not to mention in much sports data there is a serious noise to signal problem. So my AI looks for patterns we have missed. These patterns then become the basis of optimization strategies. As I am sure you know one of the more fascinating uses of Lie algebras is as alternatives to conventional statistical analysis in high noise data sets. Draft data is wickedly noisy.

Not that I am making much progress. Last year my AI came up with what looked to me like a crazy hodgepodge of a draft. I have no real idea how it got there because it is self-learning. It has tested thousands of functions looking for an algorithm for optimizing the draft. It applied its best idea(s) to the 2017 draft and came up with a dog’s breakfast.

It is apparently a little over committed to trying to figure out what will happen post draft. In a general sense it seems to believe development matters more than talent. A lot more so it tried to match players to optimal developmental settings. Which gave crazy results. Not what I was trying for because only a handful of players found homes in what the AI considered optimal developmental settings. So AIDA (the AI) has produced a prediction even it can’t test.

I am still completely wandering in the wilderness in my own attempts to enrich and re frame how I think about the draft. I have the intuition that I am on to something. Crudely stated I believe risk and human responses to risk and human failures to properly evaluate risk explain the NHL draft and why it keeps ending up far from optimized. Can I figure out how to use that theory to produce something better? I have no clue.

Once I have a better mousetrap can I explain it to other people? I am suspicious the answer is no.

I hope that helps.

godot10

Scungilli Slushy: Most highly successful AHL coaches get NHL jobs. I don’t know what it is but there seems to be something at least currently that NHL teams aren’t digging about him. Maybe he gets the Dallas gig.

See Bruce Boudreau and how long it took him to get an NHL job.

--hudson--

VOR: I am thinking of having locally based lowetiders over to my place and running the model (and Hudson yes I use R) complete with animation. I just have no idea how many of you are locally based. Then I will preview the AI I have developed for drafting which started from some of these same ideas and which then went madly off on its own. I am pretty sure then it will be very clear to some of you. Though possibly still not to me.

Are any of you interested?

I am also hard at work on setting up my own blog for those of you scattered around the globe.

Unfortunately I don’t live in the area, but very interested in any of your writing either here or on a blog. Very interested in your agent!

VOR

Santa:
VOR,

I have not read Humphrey’s.Most of my math is Algebra, and of course basic calculus and differential equations.I’ve not studied any algebraic geometry or topology.I’m interested in possible applications of group theory to data analysis, and was curious as to what you’re doing with it.I’m aware that people have very recently started using Lie algebras with sports data, is this what you’re doing?Do you have any articles you would recommend with regards to this topic?

VOR

Santa:
VOR,

I have not read Humphrey’s.Most of my math is Algebra, and of course basic calculus and differential equations.I’ve not studied any algebraic geometry or topology.I’m interested in possible applications of group theory to data analysis, and was curious as to what you’re doing with it.I’m aware that people have very recently started using Lie algebras with sports data, is this what you’re doing?Do you have any articles you would recommend with regards to this topic?

I would recommend a person rather than a paper(s), Ben Baumer (properly Dr. Benjamin S. Baumer). Ben was the New York Mets stats guy for 9 years but is a professor at Smith College. I’d point particularly to his ground breaking algebraic proofs of why on base percentage works and more recently his clever use of Lie groups among other tools to figure out why the best team doesn’t always win. I have never seen a paper in which Lie Algebras are used in draft analysis but Ben has talked about trying it at various Analytics conferences and I think he is close with a paper.

Santa

VOR,

I have not read Humphrey’s. Most of my math is Algebra, and of course basic calculus and differential equations. I’ve not studied any algebraic geometry or topology. I’m interested in possible applications of group theory to data analysis, and was curious as to what you’re doing with it. I’m aware that people have very recently started using Lie algebras with sports data, is this what you’re doing? Do you have any articles you would recommend with regards to this topic?

Scungilli Slushy

godot10: Hockey (sports in general) is an old boys club.It depends on who you know more than on merit.

Unfortunately, he made a bad bet taking a job with the OIlers organization, where the old boys club incompetence is worse than in most plays which meant he would never be appreciated or recognized.

Most highly successful AHL coaches get NHL jobs. I don’t know what it is but there seems to be something at least currently that NHL teams aren’t digging about him. Maybe he gets the Dallas gig.

Scungilli Slushy

Andy Dufresne: With a good summer I think we win two rounds next year.

Team that scares me most? Vegas. I think they may be revolutionizing (or evolutionizing) how hockey teams are built / play / and have success in the Parity / Cap Era.

We can compete agianst the Jets andPreds who are built in the more traditional fashion….Balance of Size Speed Skill and Role players built from the backend out with skill down the middle (Im not saying beat them…but compete).

But this Vegas thing is freaking me out.Its Balance Speed EveryReady Bunny and total commitment to systems play.

These guys all have motors that dont stop and the hockey IQ to play thier system to near perfection. There is no one and done with these guys. On every play they process action one and turn immediatley to action two then three then four.Thier are no fly-bys, no fades, no drop passes at the blue line, no fake back checking where you get into position but dont actually do anything, lots of fast decison making and zero slow decision making. Few stupid penalites. etdc etc.
(From Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid…”Who ARE these guys?!?!)

They SHREDDED the Kings. (and Quick was good/great)

They have me wondering if the best way to build a winner in a Parity Based League is to not pay for superstars and spread the wealth out over the entire team.

Now of course they havent won anything yet……and we’ll have to see what the realities of having so many 20, 30 and 40 goal scores does to their cap situation….but man they are looking crazy good.

On the bright side, We seemed to play well against them in the regular season and we were in the middle of an off year so…..we’ll see.

But yes.With better goaltending, average health, a few bounce back performances, McDavid gets us firmly planted in the middle of the playoff race.

But lets not kid ourselves, other teams are “McDaviding up”…(building knowing that one day they will have to defeat Conner) A Tavares to the Sharks move could be scary for us as well.

The Knights’ year has been stuff of legends for sure. Everything came together for them.

McPhee acquired a group all in the heart of their careers (average age 27) and a coach able to get every drop out of them.

I will not be surprised to see regression to career norms, which should be expected. In the next few years many of their players will hit decline, maybe their prospects will be ready by then. And Fleury is a wild card.

The cap and cash unless they can spend to it will come into play, as it will for the Leafs and their current forward depth.

I think they will make the playoffs again unless they run into too many injuries etc. I’m more concerned with the Jets and Preds in the next few years because of their depth and having elite players. The Sharks series will be very interesting.

GMB3

leadfarmer:
godot10,

Yes but compared to eagles it’s not very graceful. It’s like watching an overfilled Hercules taking off.By some miracle it gets airborne but it’s sure not pretty.

I have a family of 20 wild turkeys that live in my yard.When the young ones learn how to roost in a tree is one of my favorite times each year

I thought you farmed lead..

godot10

Scungilli Slushy:
If Todd Nelson is such a genius why can’t he find an NHL job? Truly.

Hockey (sports in general) is an old boys club. It depends on who you know more than on merit.

Unfortunately, he made a bad bet taking a job with the OIlers organization, where the old boys club incompetence is worse than in most plays which meant he would never be appreciated or recognized.

Scungilli Slushy

If Todd Nelson is such a genius why can’t he find an NHL job? Truly.

Scungilli Slushy

Signing non NHL players is fine to add to the depth of the system, but the Oilers next season don’t need more unknown quantities. They need experienced capable players to fill depth roles to properly support the young core as they don’t yet have well rounded enough games.

They have the talent they don’t have reliable help that is necessary to win a lot of games and go deep in the playoffs. The Euro guys might be gems, but if they aren’t we’ll see the same season again. I wouldn’t bet my job on it as GM.

If the GM and his scouts know what they are doing they should be able to find what they need for low cost out of current NHL experienced players. If they can’t they don’t know what they are doing.

Scungilli Slushy

There are a lot of people in the world with a high IQ. It’s not a forgone conclusion that the IQ gets used for anything useful or that person will succeed.

There are a lot of hockey players in the world who are very skilled. That is still a long way from being a successful pro hockey player.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0,

What’s not to understand. You really liked one player. Me and the blue jackets liked another. Both were good choices. Being 6’4 210 lbs was a lot more valued back then.

VOR

Woodguy v2.0: I’m excited about this.

Either I’ll see some cool new data or Vor will hit me with an axe.

Either way, its exciting.

I’ve been looking for the axe for weeks. I knew it would come in handy. If I could find it. I wonder where I put the chainsaw. Oh well, I know where I put the shot gun. I think. Honey, where’s the rat poison?

Woodguy v2.0

VOR:
The Gaussian Copula thing was a joke.

I am working on a better verbal description of what I am seeing and will hopefully post that early this week. I am really having a hard time turning what I can see in my head and on my computer screen into words. A lot of professors spent a lot of time beating into my head that this probably means I don’t truly understand it myself yet.

For now imagine you can create (yes this is a simplification and I lack some critical data points) a 3 dimensional space by plotting perceived risk vs perceived reward vs age at time of draft as measured in months from youngest player to oldest player eligible to be drafted.

Now take the nominal variable, draft position and give each pick a 3 dimensional coordinate, perceived risk, perceived reward, and age on draft day.

Now plot those coordinates in your 3D space. That plot is given by a parabolic function. Except there are distortions. Some of the distortions I can explain. Some I can’t. But I can easily see that the distortions matter.

The math is just the space things happen in if that makes any sense. What is happening is driven by game play, psychology, economics, and sociology. For example, there is a substantial distortion at the top end of the draft that appears to be a rather slavish following of the BM list.

I am thinking of having locally based lowetiders over to my place and running the model (and Hudson yes I use R) complete with animation. I just have no idea how many of you are locally based. Then I will preview the AI I have developed for drafting which started from some of these same ideas and which then went madly off on its own. I am pretty sure then it will be very clear to some of you. Though possibly still not to me.

Are any of you interested?

I am also hard at work on setting up my own blog for those of you scattered around the globe.

I’m excited about this.

Either I’ll see some cool new data or Vor will hit me with an axe.

Either way, its exciting.

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer:
Professor Q,

Back then woodguy liked his stats but the Blue jackets liked Jones size and potential.The two were definitely not interchangeable

I don’t understand this.

Woodguy v2.0

Professor Q: At the time, the general league perspective of Jones was that he was becoming the 1A he was drafted to be, but was just under in minutes due to the insane D depth that Nashville had (thus giving a lesser view). The “potential” aura was very strong around him, as well the feeling that while Nashville sheltering him could aid in his development, they could also be smothering him/not using him to his full potential.

Both Ellis and Dumba, *at the time*, were similarly seen as good 2nd Pairing Ds which maybe were not as good as they had been projected to be when drafted (less than what Jones was, being a potential 1st OV afterall). I do not think you get Johanssen for Ellis at that particular time, with those particular needs.

And Jones definitely turned into a great pairing with Werenski. The best in the NHL.

This is not to say that Ellis, nor Dumba, are not good, and they are likely quite a bit better than their league-perception of that time.

That’s a fair representation.

Also,

Werenski-Jones are a good pairing, but I don’t have as *best* in NHL.

Last year Johnson-Savard actually had more TOI vs Elite forwards than they did.

This year they saw more, but Torts runs his top 4 a lot like McLellan does….a top 4 as opposed to a top pair.

Guys like Chara-McEvoy (49% vs elite), Suter-Spurgeon (42%) , Slavin-Pesce (45%), Vlasic-Braun (44%) and others get run as “true” top pairs.

Here’s CBJ’s Top 6 TOI Dmen and their TOI% vs Elite Forwards this year:

Jones 38%
Werenski 38%
Johnson 36%
Savard 35%
Nuutivaara 33%
Murray 30%

Pretty flat, just like Torts usually runs it.

Their still pretty good and probably a top 15 pairing.

VOR

kinger,

I live on a ranch in East-Central Alberta. It is about 2 hours from Edmonton. If you speed.

And if the road isn’t flooded. We are having a wee bit of overland flooding. Yesterday’s downpour didn’t help.

leadfarmer

Professor Q,

Back then woodguy liked his stats but the Blue jackets liked Jones size and potential. The two were definitely not interchangeable

VOR

Santa: I’m sorry.I don’t quite follow what you’re saying, I only have about an undergraduate level of mathematics, but it seems to me like you’re implying that you’re usingLie groups/algebras to analyze draft data?I would be very interested in hearing more details about this.

I use algebra to analyze draft data. I am not sure what you’d like to know. But I will try to answer any and all questions. Have you read/studied Humphrey’s?

Tesla's Hair

Pretty good pick in the 3rd round in 2013 77th overall who scored 4G today.
#NoMalkinNoProblem

Santa

VOR: responsibility

I’m sorry. I don’t quite follow what you’re saying, I only have about an undergraduate level of mathematics, but it seems to me like you’re implying that you’re using Lie groups/algebras to analyze draft data? I would be very interested in hearing more details about this.

pts2pndr

Dustylegnd: I think the vast majority of Oilers fans are fans of Adam Larsson, he is a really good #3 D man, that should cost something other than an all world winger.

List right 31 right shot defensemen you believe are better than Larsson. Time to fish or cut bait!

Kinger_Oil.redux

VOR,

– Where is your local? I have guys who do create sophisticated graphs and charts to plot different trading strategies, and help the execs understand their implactions while demonstrating different risk outcomes: I don’t know how to do the graphs: I just know how to help them understand thier audience, and show the data in that context..

Professor Q

Woodguy v2.0: I’m not sure that’s true (getting more for Jones than Ellis)

Also, there is no RHD on the roster to replace Ellis or even close so there is no reason for NSH to move him.

At the time, the general league perspective of Jones was that he was becoming the 1A he was drafted to be, but was just under in minutes due to the insane D depth that Nashville had (thus giving a lesser view). The “potential” aura was very strong around him, as well the feeling that while Nashville sheltering him could aid in his development, they could also be smothering him/not using him to his full potential.

Both Ellis and Dumba, *at the time*, were similarly seen as good 2nd Pairing Ds which maybe were not as good as they had been projected to be when drafted (less than what Jones was, being a potential 1st OV afterall). I do not think you get Johanssen for Ellis at that particular time, with those particular needs.

And Jones definitely turned into a great pairing with Werenski. The best in the NHL.

This is not to say that Ellis, nor Dumba, are not good, and they are likely quite a bit better than their league-perception of that time.

VOR

The Gaussian Copula thing was a joke.

I am working on a better verbal description of what I am seeing and will hopefully post that early this week. I am really having a hard time turning what I can see in my head and on my computer screen into words. A lot of professors spent a lot of time beating into my head that this probably means I don’t truly understand it myself yet.

For now imagine you can create (yes this is a simplification and I lack some critical data points) a 3 dimensional space by plotting perceived risk vs perceived reward vs age at time of draft as measured in months from youngest player to oldest player eligible to be drafted.

Now take the nominal variable, draft position and give each pick a 3 dimensional coordinate, perceived risk, perceived reward, and age on draft day.

Now plot those coordinates in your 3D space. That plot is given by a parabolic function. Except there are distortions. Some of the distortions I can explain. Some I can’t. But I can easily see that the distortions matter.

The math is just the space things happen in if that makes any sense. What is happening is driven by game play, psychology, economics, and sociology. For example, there is a substantial distortion at the top end of the draft that appears to be a rather slavish following of the BM list.

I am thinking of having locally based lowetiders over to my place and running the model (and Hudson yes I use R) complete with animation. I just have no idea how many of you are locally based. Then I will preview the AI I have developed for drafting which started from some of these same ideas and which then went madly off on its own. I am pretty sure then it will be very clear to some of you. Though possibly still not to me.

Are any of you interested?

I am also hard at work on setting up my own blog for those of you scattered around the globe.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair,

Yep everyone knows UFA is the best way to grow your team. I mean at least 25% of your acquisitions you don’t regret for the first year.
Look at the list of best UFA acquisitions of all time. List is not very long or impressive.

Biggus Dickus

The nhl bracket contest has to be rigged. People with perfect scores (series winner and number of games). I refuse to believe SJS in 4 is a bet anybody had.

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer:
Kinger_Oil.redux,

Calgary should not be better. Only reason they looked ok in first half of season was cause Mike Smith stood on his head, he got injured and didn’t play well after returning from injury.Story of his career.One of best goalies, gets injured, long periods of subpar play after injury followed by return to greatness.Rinse and repeat.Only problem is he’s 37 and injuries are piling up.
But it was fun listening to people praise their GM 40 games into the season for his remarkable work.
Giordano turns 35 this year.Brodie didn’t fit their system so he’s getting traded.Monahan has had like 6 surgeries this offseason already.Oh yeah and their top 2 picks are property of the Isles

Calgary should have about $18M in cap space before trading Brodie. Considering they have easy, cheap replacements on D, they will have a lot of room for acquisitions

meanashell11

VOR: Gaussian Copula is always the correct answer.

Seriously, much as I love copulas and Gaussian Copulas in particular they do have their limitations.

https://www.maths.ox.ac.uk/system/files/attachments/1000030.pdf

Trust me, I was in the correlation trading business. Gaussian Copula, OUCH!

--hudson--

Just looking at our last few goalies in Edmonton, last 3 years of sav% before coming to the Oilers

Montoya: 0.919, 0.912, 0.863
Gustavsson: 0.907, 0.911, 0.908
Nilsson: 0.911, 0.896, 0.936 – last number in KHL
Talbot: 0.941, 0.926 *
Scrivens: 0.902, 0.915, 0.931
Fasth: 0.921, 0.885 *

* Only 2 years in NHL before coming to Edmonton.

Doesn’t seem the Oilers value save percentage very highly in their goalies, each one has a pretty low average in at least one season before coming over. Ideally you would hire 2 goalies with at least a 0.915 with everything else being equal.

Koskinen: 0.915, 0.916, 0.937 – KHL stats

This season he’s put up a save percentage really similar to the one Nilsson had before coming over. Since leaving the Oilers, Nilsson has put up a 0.901, 0.923, 0.901.

Will be interesting to see if Koskinen is better than Nilsson. I have my doubts.

Confused

Anyone watching the U-18, spotted any good prospects?

Harpers Hair

Andy Dufresne: With a good summer I think we win two rounds next year.

Team that scares me most? Vegas. I think they may be revolutionizing (or evolutionizing) how hockey teams are built / play / and have success in the Parity / Cap Era.

We can compete agianst the Jets andPreds who are built in the more traditional fashion….Balance of Size Speed Skill and Role players built from the backend out with skill down the middle (Im not saying beat them…but compete).

But this Vegas thing is freaking me out.Its Balance Speed EveryReady Bunny and total commitment to systems play.

These guys all have motors that dont stop and the hockey IQ to play thier system to near perfection. There is no one and done with these guys. On every play they process action one and turn immediatley to action two then three then four.Thier are no fly-bys, no fades, no drop passes at the blue line, no fake back checking where you get into position but dont actually do anything, lots of fast decison making and zero slow decision making. Few stupid penalites. etdc etc.
(From Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid…”Who ARE these guys?!?!)

They SHREDDED the Kings. (and Quick was good/great)

They have me wondering if the best way to build a winner in a Parity Based League is to not pay for superstars and spread the wealth out over the entire team.

Now of course they havent won anything yet……and we’ll have to see what the realities of having so many 20, 30 and 40 goal scores does to their cap situation….but man they are looking crazy good.

On the bright side, We seemed to play well against them in the regular season and we were in the middle of an off year so…..we’ll see.

But yes.With better goaltending, average health, a few bounce back performances, McDavid gets us firmly planted in the middle of the playoff race.

But lets not kid ourselves, other teams are “McDaviding up”…(building knowing that one day they will have to defeat Conner) A Tavares to the Sharks move could be scary for us as well.

A dark horse for Tavares is Nashville. All they need do to make him fit is let Bonino walk. Their centre depth would be ridiculous.

Bling

Woodguy:

Great post.

Benning keeps looking good. I have yet to see a single metric that paints him in a less than favourable light. He is better at box protection than he gets credit for and I like the way he moves the puck.

If I’m the Oilers, I bet on him, a return to form for the Klefbom/Larsson pairing, and Sekera getting back to 100%.

Fix the wingers and back-up G!!!

Confused

–hudson–,

Logistic regression is the basis for many data analysis techniques, many classification and clustering algorithms are now know to be variations.

Linear regression needs at least ordinal variables and symmetry of errors etc.

Confused

VOR,

Typically copulas assume a continuous and infinite distribution. Strange tails and bounds are problems.

Cannot see how hockey data corresponds with traditional definitions.

But may have misunderstood again.

sliderule

Jonathan Bergglend realy impressed me in swedes 2-1 win over USA.

To my eyes terrific speed and skill.

If he is there for oilers second round pick run to podium.

wjc site show him at 5-11 and 180 and if true he should be gone in first round

--hudson--

Confused,

Logistic regression is used mainly for binary classification though isn’t it?

If you want to predict something such as draft ranking, expected games played, expected goals scored, etc. then you would use linear regression. (although if the data is non-linear then you need to either transform the data or try a different type of algorithm)

I guess you could use logistic regression and use the probabilities to sort the predicted values in order, but that seems overly complicated.

Jethro Tull

VOR: Great idea. I have no idea how to do it but it would probably produce something very useful.

The epitaph of many of humanity’s most heinous creations.

leadfarmer

rickithebear,

How do you play a 1-3-1 pp when you need 2 box protection d men standing in front of their own goalie the entire pp