Trust Your Board

Keith Gretzky was head scout of the Boston Bruins for the 2014, 2015 and 2016 drafts. He arrived in Edmonton late summer 2016 and joined forces with Bob Green and the Oilers scouting staff in time to contribute to the 2017 Oilers selections. I firmly believe you need five years to judge a draft (sometimes longer) but you can count arrows. Keith Gretzky has a lot of good arrows for four draft summers.

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KEITH GRETZKY

Keith Gretzky joined the Boston Bruins as a scout during the 2011-12 season, and moved up to scouting director after the 2013 draft. The Bruins 2014 entry draft (David Pastrnak, Ryan Donato, Danton Heinen, Anders Bjork, Emil Johansson) is one we’ll probably be talking about for years. In 2015 the club made some big trades (Milan Lucic, Dougie Hamilton) and drafted three times in the first round and three more times in Round Two. Fans often rip Bruins scouts for not grabbing Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser and others, and there was a lot of talent passed over by Boston (and other teams). That said, early hits like Jake DeBrusk and Brandon Carlo suggest Gretzky and his crew did in fact get value from the picks. We’ll see about Jakub Zboril, Zach Senyshyn, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson and others down the line.

The 2016 draft saw Boston pick Charlie McAvoy over Dante Fabbro and at the time it seemed like a big deal. It was, but the Bruins got the right guy. The rest of that draft is still matriculating but there are some good signs from Trent Frederic, who was a controversial selection at the time. I’d grade Gretzky and Co.’s three Boston drafts as A. Lots of talent here already in the NHL (Pastrnak, McAvoy, Heinen, Donato, DeBrusk, Carlo) and plenty more on the way. The Bruins gave up some exceptional NHL talent during that 2015 draft and may not have gotten 100 cents on the dollar. The bottom line is they re-set the team’s main cluster and are rebuilding on the fly effectively. Music!

In his first draft in Edmonton (and I honestly don’t know what the management structure looks like, assume Gretzky and Green work closely together), Gretzky and Green chose Kailer Yamamoto. High skill, undersized, quick, effective, 5.07, 153 on draft day. Wow. Paul Almeida from Saturday Sports Extra told me about David Pastrnak back in January of 2015 when he returned from Europe. I asked Paul to describe his game in what would have been Dec-Jan of his draft year:

  • Almeida: At the World Juniors in Malmo, Sweden Pastrnak was the most dynamic forward for the Czechs. He constantly drove the puck to the net at high speed with elite skill and never backed down from a puck battle. He often won those battles against much bigger and stronger players with his tenacity, elusiveness, fast feet and matching hands. He had an accurate shot and quick release that seemed to surprise goalies. Top talent with compete to match.

If we use Pastrnak, McAvoy and Yamamoto (skill, skill, skill) as the Gretzky draft template, perhaps we can inform ourselves a little about what may come in this year’s draft.

PRIMARY PTS (F) 2017 DRAFT CHL

The next several segments are using ‘primary points per game’ and are all available at prospect-stats.com. Oilers pursued skill at No. 22, no chance Yamamoto is available at No. 22 if he is 6.0, 180. I don’t know if he’ll work out and we’ll see about this fall, but Edmonton went skill in a big way with the first round pick in 2017. Kirill Maksimov had a primary points-60 number of 0.52 (the group above is all CHL forwards chosen in the first two rounds).

PRIMARY PTS (F) 2018 DRAFT CHL

Based on primary points per game, Svechnikov is the best CHL offensive forward this or last season. Zadina is also a solid prospect and then things fall off. Justin Almeida (he is a 1999, meaning he was eligible a year ago. I had him at No. 84 on my last list but he’s moving up) is a fascinating curio. This isn’t a good year for skill forwards in the CHL. Not many kids pushing the river. We may see the Oilers draft from Europe (Jonatan Berggren is spiking in real time) or take a defenseman.

PRIMARY POINTS FROM THE PAST

Yamamoto’s draft total above got me wondering about the previous Oilers chosen from the CHL. Here are some numbers through the years.

  1. Connor McDavid 2015 (OHL) 2.00
  2. Taylor Hall 2010 (OHL) 1.44
  3. Leon Draisaitl 2014 (WHL) 1.34
  4. Nail Yakupov 2012 (OHL) 1.29
  5. Kailer Yamamoto 2017 (WHL) 1.17
  6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2011 (WHL) 1.00
  7. Marco Roy 2013 (QMJHL) 0.85
  8. Tyler Benson 2016 (WHL) 0.77
  9. Daniil Zharkov 2012 (OHL) 0.62
  10. Greg Chase 2013 (WHL) 0.61
  11. Tobias Rieder 2011 (OHL) 0.60
  12. Jackson Houck 2013 (WHL) 0.59
  13. Kirill Maksimov 2017 (OHL) 0.52
  14. Curtis Hamilton 2010 (WHL) 0.42
  15. Mitch Moroz 2012 (WHL) 0.36
  16. Kyle Platzer 2013 (OHL) 0.29
  17. Travis Ewanyk 2011 (WHL) 0.28

Interesting list, seems 1.00 primary points per game is an indicator based on this quick look. Kailer Yamamoto was 0.96 in the previous season so the offense is bona fide. Two final takeaways: Someone should sign Nail Yakupov, there’s talent there. Also, Tobias Rieder is the only player on the list to produce less than 1.00/game primary points and have a substantial career. It would be worthwhile to drill down on why he beat the odds.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A huge day across the sports and we have you covered. Scheduled to appear:

  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. NFL Draft Day!! We’ll tee up one of the truly amazing events in sports.
  • Seerat Sohi, The Athletic and SB Nation. Raptors calmed the waters and won a big game last night.
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN and NHL.com. Looking forward to the final four series and projecting winners.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Leafs out, Bruins move on, draft lottery and what it may mean.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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129 Responses to "Trust Your Board"

  1. ArmchairGM says:

    Just catching up on the last thread, some comments on Serron Noel prompted me to do some digging:

    “His game is very raw and there is a lot of work to be done, but he has the potential to be an impact power forward in the NHL. He is still very young – Noel doesn’t turn 18 until six weeks after the draft – but he has already completed two full seasons in the OHL and has shown a lot of growth year over year.

    Noel is a very intriguing player that will likely cause a few battles in draft rooms. At 6’5 and nearly 210lbs, he is going to open the eyes of a lot scouts that still value size and grit over other things. They will see his game down low and in front of the net and envision James van Riemsdyk or even Blake Wheeler. There are aspects to Noel’s game that give him the possibility to become that good – it will just be a long development process. He has proven the ability to put the puck in the net, particularly in close to the crease.

    On the flip side, Noel isn’t a player that tracks well. Teams that keep analytical data on him see a player that barely breaks even when weighing the positives against the negative. A lot of this probably has to do with the fact that Noel doesn’t shoot the puck enough. The shot generation metrics leave a lot to be desired because it looks like he isn’t creating offense for his line. Noel only really shoots the puck from high-danger areas, as a result, he’s got an abnormally high shooting percentage of a little under 27%. He has very good hands and can finish off plays down low better than just about any player in the OHL.

    Noel isn’t going to drive your team’s offense. He is below average when it comes to zone entry attempts showing that he doesn’t necessarily like to be the one carrying the puck into the opponent’s zone. To counter that, Noel is strong when it comes to starting the rush. He works hard on the back check and was one of the best Oshawa forwards when it came to controlled zone exits this season.

    He has a lot of growing to do before he can be counted as a sure-fire NHLer, and he knows it. Noel sees his weaknesses and works hard to improve them. One of the biggest concerns with players his size is skating ability. Last summer, Noel started taking power-skating classes and he’s made a big improvement as a result. He has a long powerful stride that generates good speed, but he is still very weak on his skates. He gets knocked off stride easily. If that happens to a kid his size in junior, it’s going to be a big problem at the professional level. He looks awkward at times and clearly needs to work on his coordination – though that can be said about any 17-year old that stands 6’5”. A lot of that will change as he matures physically. There is a ton of room to add strength to his frame and as he becomes conformable with his body, we should see him become a lot more stable on the ice.

    Noel is a smart player that knows his strengths and plays within them. He is a high risk, high reward prospect. For a team that values patience and development, he could be an outstanding pick in the bottom half of the first round this June.

    He is a project, there’s no debating that. The fact that Noel is one of the youngest players in the draft class leaves a lot of room for development, both in terms of on-ice skills as well as physical maturity.”

    I don’t think he’s a guy you go after with a top-12 pick, but if he’s still there at 40, run to the podium.

  2. russ99 says:

    It would be so Oilers to trade down from 9-12 and take Almeida in the low first because of all that WHL “inside knowledge”.

    I’m happy with Gretzky’s drafting, less so with Bob Green (go back and watch that Reinhart clip again) and long to see no sight of Lowe or MacTavish at the draft table this year.

  3. N64 says:

    4 straight goals. Who’d have imagined such a thing? It’s like Nuge hitting 50 points. Inconceivable. #springcompost

  4. Pink Socks says:

    Leaf tears taste just as good in the morning.

  5. judgedrude says:

    Rieder must have not been used with an emphasis on offense. He was voted as the second best PKer, and the coach might have had him in the Bob Gainey role (not that I mean to stoke that fire 😉

    However, the skill was there owing to his Draft+1 year doubling his offensive output as noted in the Journal article–mentioning he even scored more than Eberle Draft+1.

    Rieder for Kessy. Yep.

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/07/20/the-fourth-round-2015-edition/#comment-436590

    Rieder is the Pisani we have been looking for. But, who would have seen that coming:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/08/22/tobias-rieder-first-to-50-since-eberle/

    “Voted second best penalty killer….in a coach’s poll”

  6. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I hadn’t realized that Kailer was an over-ager. So in his first year of eligibility he was passed-over?

    – Isn’t that a red-flag? I that over-agers historically did poorly

  7. ArmchairGM says:

    From the last thread:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m not sure the Bruins are ‘heavy’. A very structured and disciplined game, *a lot of Duck flavoured jerkism*

    THIS is exactly why I can’t cheer for the Bruins – they’re the Ducks of the EC. I understand why older gentlemen here (host, for one) follow the B’s, due to growing up watching Orr and his underdog team against the mighty Habs and Leafs. But as a child of a different era, I just can’t stand them.

  8. meanashell11 says:

    I like the Bruins. Oilers by far number 1 but I like the Bruins and Preds. I like the Preds because of Terry Crisp. I have to watch the US feeds down here on Center Ice and most of the play-by-play and color guys down here do not know the game well. Crisp was the exception. He was very knowledgable about the game, knew the players on the other team and was never biased. Really appreciated listening to him on the Nashville broadcasts.

    And in the playoffs I cheer for whomever is playing the Leafs, Flames, Ducks!

  9. Side says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I hadn’t realized that Kailer was an over-ager.So in his first year of eligibility he was passed-over?

    – Isn’t that a red-flag?I that over-agers historically did poorly

    If he was passed over, was probably due to his size and not due to this talent.

  10. dustrock says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I hadn’t realized that Kailer was an over-ager.So in his first year of eligibility he was passed-over?

    – Isn’t that a red-flag?I that over-agers historically did poorly

    Uhhhh pretty sure last year was his first year of eligibility

  11. Confused says:

    Press have signed Svoboda.

  12. Cassandra says:

    ArmchairGM:
    From the last thread:

    THIS is exactly why I can’t cheer for the Bruins – they’re the Ducks of the EC. I understand why older gentlemen here (host, for one) follow the B’s, due to growing up watching Orr and his underdog team against the mighty Habs and Leafs. But as a child of a different era, I just can’t stand them.

    Thank you. The Bruins are scum.

    There is nothing more indicative of the childishness of Oiler fans than the way in which their silly hate for the Canucks and the Leafs has led them to cheer for such an awful franchise, one that is genuinely deserving of hate and contempt.

    The Leafs have a team full of young and endearing talent. The Bruins have the worst human being in hockey. And yet you cheer for the Bruins. Shame.

  13. meanashell11 says:

    Cassandra: Thank you.The Bruins are scum.

    There is nothing more indicative of the childishness of Oiler fans than the way in which their silly hate for the Canucks and the Leafs has led them to cheer for such an awful franchise, one that is genuinely deserving of hate and contempt.

    The Leafs have a team full of young and endearing talent.The Bruins have the worst human being in hockey.And yet you cheer for the Bruins.Shame.

    The personal attacks are really nice!

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    dustrock: Uhhhh pretty sure last year was his first year of eligibility

    – lt says in his bit above that Kailer is an overager

    – if indeed he was passed over in his first year of nhl draft eligibility that’s a significant hurdle to overcome based on draft history. Whether he was small or not.

    – maybe lt meant something else when he says overager like playing in junior an extra year or something. I hope so because if not the odds are very very against overagers that get passed over making the nhl

    – the reason for this of course is that they are being measured against guys a year younger. I really hope this isn’t the case. His size is his size regardless of year drafted

  15. Aron_S says:

    Cassandra,

    I regret to inform you that Patrick Kane does not play for the Bruins.

  16. Side says:

    Cassandra: Thank you.The Bruins are scum.

    There is nothing more indicative of the childishness of Oiler fans than the way in which their silly hate for the Canucks and the Leafs has led them to cheer for such an awful franchise, one that is genuinely deserving of hate and contempt.

    The Leafs have a team full of young and endearing talent.The Bruins have the worst human being in hockey.And yet you cheer for the Bruins.Shame.

    “Oilers fans are childish…..*goes on to call a hockey player the worst human being in hockey, tells people to feel shame for cheering for another team, calls another franchise awful and scum*”

    Yep, your theory is spot on.

  17. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Yama was amongst the oldest in his draft year, the cut of is Sept 15. Kailer is Sept 29, if he was born 15 days earlier he would have been eligible the year before.

  18. Alpine says:

    Yamamoto was a late birthday, not an overager. Those are not the same thing.

  19. OilClog says:

    Cassandra,

    Frankly everything about your comment seems like a 8yr old wrote it, grow up child.

  20. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – lt says in his bit above that Kailer is an overager

    – if indeed he was passed over in his first year of nhl draft eligibility that’s a significant hurdle to overcome based on draft history. Whether he was small or not.

    – maybe lt meant something else when he says overager like playing in junior an extra year or something. I hope so because if not the odds are very very against overagers that get passed over making the nhl

    – the reason for this of course is that they are being measured against guys a year younger. I really hope this isn’t the case. His size is his size regardless of year drafted

    Overager is probably wrong word to use.
    Kailer has a late birthdate. I believe he is only 6 months younger than JP but was drafted a year later as his birthdate falls after the September cutoff.

  21. jtblack says:

    LT WONDERFUL Post .. Thank You!! Lots of Great Info.

    BENSON seems like a bubble guy as far as driving any O at the NHL Level.

    Primary Points ARE a good indicator BUT they will always favor Goal Scorers.

    REIDER: 2 Thoughts.
    1) He came over from Europe. Draft year was 1st year in OHL. probably some adjustment there. Hr Tore apart the OHL in draft +1.
    2) Always will be outliers. could be that simple He skates well, that always helps ANY prospect.

  22. OilersDynasty says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    He was not passed over. You have to have a birthday before Sept 15th to be drafted in that draft year. He was a “Late Birthday” for 2017. He was one of the “older” members of his draft class. So he played 3 years of Junior before getting drafted.

    Since he was signed, he can play in AHL next season, and if he doesnt play more than 9 NHL games next year, his contract will slide again, just like it would if he played in junior. Then his contract would fully kick in for 2019-2020, though the oilers will probably burn the 1st year of his ELC this year anyway.

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I have no use for cheap shots and psychos like Marchand, but I enjoy watching a team that plays a smart and disciplined game as the Bruins have been, and a balanced roster.

    I only cheer for one team. I only have other teams that I don’t want to see win for various reasons. I was against the Leafs not because of the team, but because I don’t want to listen to their media and fans go on about how they are not only the best team ever, but the best thing ever in the history of everything, if they get too far. Probably forever.

  24. frjohnk says:

    Cut off date for draft is Sept 15th.

    JP born May 7, 1998. Drafted in 2016.
    Kailer born Sept 29,1998 drafted in 2017.

  25. jtblack says:

    Beat that DRUM:

    If Kieth Gretzky likes skill, se should take a Good, hard look at Calen Addison in the WHL.

    Addison just turned 18. he leads ALL WHL DMen is Playoff scoring with 18 Points in 14 Games.
    He may be around in round 2.
    His skating, skill and passing are all A+.

    I think he could be Amazing NHL d man draft +4 /5 (he will take some time).

  26. Jaxon says:

    I know some of you may have seen previous versions of this, so I apologize in advance. I’ve been working on a new ‘super-stat’ for the entry draft regarding Canadian junior players.

    I’ve taken their 5-on-5 Primary Pts / 60 (via prospect-stats.com) and converted it to a Primary Pts / 14.4167 minutes number (the median 5-on-5 TOI for Top 6 forwards in the NHL via NHL.com). I then adjusted the numbers based on league via Vollman’s updated numbers (OHL .323, WHL .302, QMJHL .284). Then I adjusted it using Rhys Jessop’s Age Adjustment formula, but modified to 17.5 yrs instead of 17 as the baseline. The next step was to figure out the ERA adjustment for each season in each league adjusted to 2017-2018. The final step was to inflate all the numbers to correlate the top 10 most productive who were drafted top 10 and jumped directly to the NHL to match their rookie NHL 5-on-5 Primary Points / 14.4167 TOI (median top 6 minutes) via Corsica.Hockey (Crosby’s rookie season not available). The inflation factor was 1.509. The results were pretty consistent for those top players to get them within a few points of their actual NHL numbers.

    Draft, Player, Expected5on5PrPts, (Actual5on5PrPts), Difference, Comments
    2005 Sidney Crosby 44 (?)
    2018 Svechnikov 43 (?) ? Last 34GP of season post-injury
    2015 McDavid 42 (40) -2 Injuries may have impacted NHL & Jr rates
    2018 Svechnikov 38 (?) ? Full season, injuries may have impacted Jr rates
    2007 Gagner 31 (32) +1
    2013 MacKinnon 29 (28) -1
    2007 P Kane 29 (32) +3
    2010 Hall 28 (21) -7 Injuries may have impacted rookie season rate
    2009 E Kane 27 (30) +3
    2010 Seguin 26 (27) +1
    2008 Stamkos 26 (27) +1
    2009 Tavares 25 (24) -1
    2014 Draisaitl 24 (21) -3
    2018 Filip Zadina 24 (24) 0*****
    2011 Landeskog 24 (22) -2
    2018 Serron Noel 23 (23) 0*****
    2016 M Tkachuk 23 (32) +8
    2009 Duchene 23 (26) +3
    2008 Josh Bailey 22 (15) -7
    2011 Couturier 21 (26) +5
    2017 Hischier 21 (41) +20 Playing with Hall?
    2010 Skinner 21 (35) +15
    2012 Yakupov 21 (36) +15 Playing with Hall?
    2013 Monahan 20 (28) +8
    2010 Burmistrov 18 (15) -2
    2011 Nugent-Hopkins 17 (30) +13 Playing with Hall?
    2008 Boedker 16 (18) +2
    2017 Patrick 15 (30) +14

    Feedback on stats and theories are appreciated. The database includes 2833 players.

  27. Halfwise says:

    frjohnk:
    Cut off date for draft is Sept 15th.

    JP born May 7, 1998. Drafted in 2016.
    Kailer born Sept 29,1998 drafted in 2017.

    Kailer is 10 days younger than Nolan Patrick. Neither one was passed over for the 2016 draft; they were not eligible for that draft.

  28. Andy Dufresne says:

    Some Leafs Fans Reactions:

    Babcock is as much to blame for game 7. It was apparent early on that Gardiner was struggling, yet he still played over 24 minutes. It was apparent early on that Dermott, Johnsson and Kapanen were playing well, but they played 8, 11 and 10 minutes respectively. When does the coach ever take flack for not icing the players who are actually going on any given night? Isn’t that Babcock’s job to identify who is playing well, who is playing poorly and make in game adjustments? (TMac?)

    If there ever was a year when the back-up should have played more than he did, it was this year. McElhinney played well and the Leafs had a full month of meaningless games at the end of the year where they could have rested Andersen. That’s entirely on Babcock. (TMac?)

    Nylander did not find “another level” he scored a wide open tap in goal and otherwise you would be hard pressed to clip together any game where he had more than one effective shift. (Eberle?)

    Lou won’t be the one to fix anything, he’s gonna be gone (Chia?)

    The D simply are not good enough. We’ve known that for years now. It should have been addressed with more than a band-aid last off season, it should have been addressed at the trade deadline. They either address it (not just sign another old guy) w a solid RD1 that pushes the rest down the line up and gives the team a dependable tandem, or 2019 will be wash, rinse, repeat. (Could use a Larsson??)

    the holes in this Leafs team are not going to be easily to fill. Two bottom six centres and at least one top 4 right handed D seems like a lot to address in one offseason, especially when our stockpile of assets seems to be running low at the moment. The development of Liljegren into a Top 4 D will be crucial. And maybe its the scars of previous management regimes but I can’t help but feel nervous about addressing our big needs through free agency. I look forward to finding out who the GM will be that navigates this organization through the offseason and beyond. (Chia?)

    These guys sound like they could be Oilers fans.

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    From the last thread:

    €√¥£€^$: It would be interesting to see the stats Dobson vs Bouchard since the New Year after London had traded away a couple high-end forwards who were carrying the offense.

    I did a comparison of their draft-year rosters Dobson vs Chychryn and Chychryn was surrounded by NHL draft picks, Dobson not so much.And Dobson’s numbers are superior.

    Dobson is very intriguing.Also 20 yr old LHD Galipeau has put up >1pt/game after coming over in a trade and put up 15 pts (4 goals) in 14 playoff games vs Dobson’s 9 (1 goal).I think Dobson’s just scratching the surface, whereas Bouchard is at his peak.That being said it is possible that Bouchard might be ready for prime time now and Dobson is a few yrs away…

    Comparison after New Years is easy enough to do:

    Noah Dobson: 29, 12-21-33 (1.138 ppg) +19
    Evan Bouchard: 31-12-24-41 (1.323 ppg) +10

    Dobson’s offense is AWOL in the playoffs (0.64 ppg), but he is +9 through 14 games. There’s a player there, but I don’t see that he’s clearly above Bouchard by the numbers. Again, I’m not arguing one is better than the other, just pointinng out the numbers and that, while there is no consensus amongst scouts, Bouchard is my pick.

    NHLE for full season:

    Noah Dobson: 23.98
    Evan Bouchard: 34.39

    NHLE for 2018 portion of regular season:

    Noah Dobson: 26.5
    Evan Bouchard: 35.0

  30. Pink Socks says:

    Miroslav Svoboda signs with the Predators. The Oilers have Brossoit and Ellis as RFA, neither of which have shown to have NHL potential. I will be interested to see what happened and why the Oilers didn’t figure their own draft pick was worth a 2 year contract to see how he fares in the minors.

  31. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: Thank you.The Bruins are scum.

    There is nothing more indicative of the childishness of Oiler fans than the way in which their silly hate for the Canucks and the Leafs has led them to cheer for such an awful franchise, one that is genuinely deserving of hate and contempt.

    The Leafs have a team full of young and endearing talent.The Bruins have the worst human being in hockey.And yet you cheer for the Bruins.Shame.

    *sigh

    Come on now. It’s sports. People have various reasons to cheer for an against a certain franchise. I for one, cheer for one team. I find it similar to a marriage. I can’t have two of them. I’m not sure Marchand is the worst human being, he may be a dick, but he’s a hell of a hockey player and if he was an Oiler I would be thrilled.

    The Leafs as a franchise I can’t stand. I enjoy seeing them collapse. There are a few reasons for this, but first and foremost, if the Leafs ever accomplish anything and win a cup, there will be no end to the media coverage.

  32. Pink Socks says:

    ArmchairGM:
    From the last thread:

    Comparison after New Years is easy enough to do:

    Noah Dobson: 29, 12-21-33 (1.138 ppg) +19
    Evan Bouchard: 31-12-24-41 (1.323 ppg) +10

    Dobson’s offense is AWOL in the playoffs (0.64 ppg), but he is +9 through 14 games. There’s a player there, but I don’t see that he’s clearly above Bouchard by the numbers. Again, I’m not arguing one is better than the other, just pointinng out the numbers and that, while there is no consensus amongst scouts, Bouchard is my pick.

    NHLE for full season:

    Noah Dobson: 23.98
    Evan Bouchard:34.39

    NHLE for 2018 portion of regular season:

    Noah Dobson: 26.5
    Evan Bouchard:35.0

    Great stuff thank you. I agree, if it’s down to Dobson or Bouchard, I take Bouchard every time.

  33. Jaxon says:

    Others of interest: (PS, if anyone finds the length of this comments annoying please just ask that I delete/shorten it and I’ll be glad to)
    2015 Mitchell Marner 34.6162
    2015 Dylan Strome 34.5710
    2014 Robby Fabbri 30.4115
    2014 Sam Bennett 29.0389
    2014 Spencer Watson 28.9086
    2015 Zachary Senyshyn 28.2821
    2013 Oliver Bjorkstrand 27.9705
    2015 Andrew Mangiapane 27.7594*
    2013 Nicolas Petan 27.7300*
    2011** Ryan Strome 27.6209
    2016 Pierre-Luc Dubois 27.5508
    2013 Jonathan Drouin 27.3546
    2016 Adam Mascherin 26.9671*
    2015 Blake Speers 26.7876
    2008 Greg Nemisz 26.4533
    2016 Alex DeBrincat 26.1016*
    2005 Bobby Ryan 25.9609
    2007 Stefan Legein 25.8273
    2017 Ivan Lodnia 25.7889
    2006 Chris Stewart 25.4628
    2010 Tyler Toffoli 25.4450
    2017 Owen Tippett 25.0976
    2008 Jordan Eberle 24.9623*
    2013 Max Domi 24.6451
    2014 Nikolaj Ehlers 24.6115
    2017 Nick Suzuki 24.6101
    2014 Josh Ho-Sang 24.6099*
    2010 Austin Watson 24.5768
    2011 Sven BArtschi 24.5728
    2014 Chase De Leo 24.0759
    2010 Brendan Gallagher 23.8577*
    2010 Mark Stone 23.6414
    2011 Alexander Khokhlachev 23.5695
    2016 Boris Katchouk 23.4469
    2011 Boone Jenner 23.3942*
    2012 Andreas Athanasiou 23.2771*
    2011 Jonathan Huberdeau 23.0503
    2017 Cody Glass 22.9909
    2010 Devante Smith-Pelly 22.9679
    2016 Julien Gauthier 22.9507
    2014 Nick Ritchie 22.8682
    2011 Shane Prince 22.8218
    2009 Matt Duchene 22.7146*
    2016 Vitalii Abramov 22.6996
    2014 Jake Virtanen 22.4741
    2012 Mikhail Grigorenko 22.4667
    2015 Travis Konecny 22.4108
    2014 Nikolay Goldobin 22.3074
    2015 Nikita Korostelev 22.1871
    2010 Ryan Spooner 22.0830
    2014 Jayce Hawryluk 22.0827
    2012 Radek Faksa 22.0500
    2011 Stefan Noesen 21.7582
    2013 Anthony Mantha 21.7265
    2017 Kyle Olson 21.6010
    2017 Mason Shaw 21.5195
    2011** Ty Rattie 21.4201*
    2017 Robert Thomas 21.4089
    2018 Aidan Dudas 21.4072
    2017** Kailer Yamamoto 21.4054*
    2006 Jordan Staal 21.3035
    2018 Allan McShane 21.3007
    2014 Michael Dal Colle 21.2284
    2014 Eric Cornel 20.9638
    2007 Jakub Voracek 20.9579*
    2015 Mathieu Joseph 20.9187
    2018 Curtis Douglas 20.8411
    2013 Valentin Zykov 20.3964
    2018 Blade Jenkins 20.2034
    2015 Dennis Yan 20.1432
    2018 Tristen Nielsen 19.7336* Top WHL in draft
    2018 Barrett Hayton 19.2569
    2006 Brad Marchand 18.8830*
    2018 Matthew Struthers 18.8671
    2018 Pavel Gogolev 18.7892 * His expected 5on5 goals is the 2nd best after Svechnikov.
    2007 Logan MacMillan 18.7763
    2018 Nathan Dunkley 18.2507
    2018 Cedric Desruisseaux 17.4606
    2018 Akil Thomas 17.3519
    2018 Maxim Golod 17.1777
    2018 Brady Hinz 16.9808
    2018 Benoit-Olivier Groulx 16.2568
    2015 Mathew Barzal 16.1305*

  34. Rondo says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Dobson maybe is a Thomas Chabot type of player. He is a better skater than Bouchard.

  35. Andy Dufresne says:

    Hey Look….Leafs Fans even having the Kelbom conversation too…

    Jake Gardiner…….what can you say about him. He’s soft and lacks compete. Loses most of his 50/50 battles. He makes such stupid plays even when he’s not under duress. He just gives the puck away again, and again, and again even when he has time and space! I have zero faith in him to make the right play when it’s needed. They better trade his ass this summer and give Dermott his ice time. He’s 28 years old. It’s over for him in terms of development. Kadri has come a long way under Babcock. Jake is still the exact same unsteady, unreliable player he was 5 years ago.

    Gardiner needs a more suitable spot in the lineup with reduced minutes. It would be a big mistake to trade him.

    This is a very bad take. Yeah, trade your second best defenseman and biggest minute eater and wonder why the team is suddenly worse. I figured everyone subscribing here would know not to trust the One Big Mistake their brain remembers. Give him a real partner who can actually play or actually clear the front of the net–Lord knows Polak did neither this series–and Jake will continue to be a very valuable member of this team. (Gardiner is Klefbom and Polak is Russell??)

  36. digger50 says:

    Jaxon,

    On your list, Adam Mascherin stands out. As there is now more NHL predictability on him, why not grab him for a third round pic? We are looking for prospects and he will be further along the curve than a 2018 or 2019 third rounder.

  37. SkatinginSand says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    How about Gardner is Petry and the Oilers get him for a conditional 4th round pick?

  38. SkatinginSand says:

    Cassandra: Thank you.The Bruins are scum.

    There is nothing more indicative of the childishness of Oiler fans than the way in which their silly hate for the Canucks and the Leafs has led them to cheer for such an awful franchise, one that is genuinely deserving of hate and contempt.

    The Leafs have a team full of young and endearing talent.The Bruins have the worst human being in hockey.And yet you cheer for the Bruins.Shame.

    And Nazim Kadri is a former choir boy who is a finalist for the Lady Byng.

  39. digger50 says:

    Jaxon,

    Also on your first list Noel stands out.

    Particularly given his poor scouting report listed as first post this morning. I saw him good at the recent tournament. Very good “at his job” which really was t transporting the puck but owning the boards and front of the net. Big kid who has the be of upside, really dependant in his attitude how far he goes.

    It really applicable to us though as he won’t be a umber 9ish pick and he won’t be a 40ish pick.

  40. digger50 says:

    Jaxon,

    Finally Jaxon, how does Brady Tkachuk make out using your numbers? I do think he drops into 9ish territory.

  41. Rondo says:

    digger50,

    I think if Oilers pick at forward at #9-#12 it will be Kotkaniemi or Hayton

  42. Andy Dufresne says:

    Can someone please, please ask Babcock why his team over-relied on the stretch pass, flip out, or high-of-the-glass play to get out of its own end this season? The Redwings never played this way and I was hoping Babs was bringing that “puck possession” style with him to Toronto. Short passes, puck support, clean breakouts. I know personnel has a lot to do with it but it’s still very concerning that he wasn’t teaching this system to young team.

    I believe he couldn’t do it because the “D” he had proved to be very incapable of it.

  43. Jaxon says:

    digger50: Adam Mascherin

    For sure. There may be a bit of a bidding war on him depending on what scouts have seen this season. He had no support but they are in the semifinals in the OHL playoffs and he is one of their leaders. It may cost a 2nd rounder (I think I’d pay that), or even a first from a team that has multiple 1sts like NYR, PHI, OTT, DET & NYI although NYI’s picks are way too high for that trade to make sense. I would think NYR’s 28th or 29th pick might win the day or DET’s 27th. PHI’s 19th and OTT’s 22nd would be an overpay in my opinion. NYR or DET? Not sure Edmonton’s 40th would do it.

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    When doing “post-New-Years” numbers for a previous post, I decided to do the following too:

    Full season:

    Svechnikov 44, 40-32-72 +26 (1.64 ppg) 43.34 NHLE
    Zadina 57, 44-38-82 +23 (1.44 ppg) 33.53 NHLE

    Post New Years:

    Svechnikov 28, 26-25-51 +16 (1.82 ppg) 48.24 NHLE
    Zadina 25, 20-16-36 +9 (1.44 ppg) 33.53 NHLE

    It looks like Svechnikov elevated his game in the second half, after coming back from injury. His true level looks to be well above Zadina’s, I’m not sure why many scouts consider them interchangeable at #2.

  45. Andy Dufresne says:

    I believe this is the offseason that will ultimately determine just how successful this team will be. It has been relatively easy so far, with Matthews falling in their lap and getting Marner at 4 (we may see that differently if Hanifin continues to develop and become a top pair defenceman.)
    What is this front office prepared to do to acquire defencemen (plural) that can support an already skilled and deep forward group? Free agency will not answer that question? So, are they prepared to talk about trading Marner or Nylander to get a top pair d man?
    The only way the Leafs get a proper top D is to draft one and wait. The rebuild plan will take as long as that process takes.

  46. Jaxon says:

    digger50:
    Jaxon,

    Also on your first list Noel stands out.

    Particularly given his poor scouting report listed as first post this morning. I saw him good at the recent tournament. Very good “at his job” which really was t transporting the puck but owning the boards and front of the net. Big kid who has the be of upside, really dependent in his attitude how far he goes.

    It really applicable to us though as he won’t be number 9ish pick and he won’t be a 40ish pick.

    His numbers compare well to Voracek, Draisaitl, Landeskog and M Tkachuk, so he could be a very valuable player someday.

  47. Andy Dufresne says:

    They COULD and SHOULD have assets from moving JVR, but mgmt blew that one. Our own rental did NOTHING from the deadline to help this team. We were guaranteed 3rd, and where was he in the playoffs, like last year? Those assets could have helped long term. There is not a lot of top end talent on the Marlies, So where is the help coming to compete?

    The sooner Lou is replaced the better. Trading JVR and Bozak would have beens the right call. By far the most value on the team as trade chips.
    And this isn’t armchair quarterbacking. Everyone knew this defense was not good enough, and they could have improved at the deadline, or at the very least, have assets to improve this summer. So yeah, please go away Lou.

  48. stephen sheps says:

    Cassandra: The Bruins have the worst human being in hockey. And yet you cheer for the Bruins. Shame.

    I cheer for the Bruins for two reasons

    1) Growing up watching the Oilers, the Bruins were their SCF opponents for the last 2 cups. I liked those teams, thought they played hard and enjoyed the rivalry. Bourque, Cam Neely and Craig Janney were likeable players, and I still had a soft spot for Andy Moog. As a result I started cheering for them as my ‘Wales Conference’ team back in like 89 or 90, maybe 91. I was a just a kid, but when I decide I am loyal to a franchise, I stay loyal. Hence why I still cheer for the Miami Dolphins and Houston Astros, two teams I got into around the same time in my youth.

    2) Bergeron, Patrice.

    That said, cheering against the Leafs is easy. I live in Toronto – didn’t want to have to deal with their insufferable fanbase on the regular (not to say that Oilers fans aren’t on occasion equally insufferable) and I don’t really play the nationalism game when it comes to cheering for teams once the Oilers are out.

    Edit to add: I am also cheering for the Preds to win it all, in part due to likability of the players, in part due to my connection to Tennessee and in part because they have a ridiculously passionate fanbase and one of the best in-arena experiences I’ve ever been a part of at games. But I was definitely cheering for the Bruins vs. the Leafs and hope they make some noise in the east.

  49. Andy Dufresne says:

    LAST ONE

    Sorry, not optimistic. They don’t have centre depth, and now will be more depleted. So who plays with Matthews? He needs some high end talent there, and Brown Cow is not that. Maybe Kap can fill a void if moved off the 4th line, but we don’t know.

    One thing I do not want to hear anymore is how good this team is going to be, how great Matthews, Marner and Nylander are going to be, the line that Stanley Cup wins are inevitable, just not right now. Team is still building, yada yada. To me this is just a great carrot for management to hold out in front of the fans
    I think the Shanny “plan” is at the crossroad

  50. stephen sheps says:

    Jaxon,

    thanks for these numbers! interesting stuff

  51. Jaxon says:

    digger50:
    Jaxon,

    Finally Jaxon, how does Brady Tkachuk make out using your numbers? I do think he drops into 9ish territory.

    Unfortunately, I was only able to do Canadian Junior (Brady is NCAA) as that is the only source I could find that has a 5-on-5 Primary Pts per 60 stat (prospect-stats.com). That site has USHL stats as well, but I don’t have and equivalency number for the USHL, so I can’t produce those numbers either.

  52. Jaxon says:

    stephen sheps:
    Jaxon,

    thanks for these numbers! interesting stuff

    No problem. It’s been an interesting challenge to see how close I could get the prediction to the actual on a very predictive stat (5-on-5 Primary Points / 60). I think it’s pretty promising and stands on the many shoulders of those that have done the work before.

  53. dustrock says:

    Canada with a shocking loss to the Czechs.

    Poor, uninspired performance. Was not wowed by Veleno or Noel.

    Smith and Merkley played well in terms of decision making but no outstanding plays.

  54. stephen sheps says:

    Jaxon: I think it’s pretty promising and stands on the many shoulders of those that have done the work before.

    That’s all anyone can hope for when building a new theory – some have made that very claim about all of western thought, that each new theoretical formulation or idea is indebted to that which came before it. Keep it up!

  55. zatch says:

    China is a little less than 4 years out from hosting the Olympics, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens with their team. They were promoted back to Div 2A (i.e. the 4th tier) this year, and look better than a promotion team usually does. I think they stay up at the expense of Iceland. They played Australia and Serbia sort of close, 3-1 both times, even if they were heavily outshot, but got fed by Div 2A/Div 1B elevator team Netherlands 7-0. The roster is damn young, and they have some years to grow. I think they will overtake Belgium, and Serbia within 2 years, Australia will be tougher, and I don’t know if they can get to the level of Romania/Netherlands, not without North American transfer help.

    At best, I think this is a team that goes into the Olympics ranked 29th/30th (Likely finish of 33ish this year). That’s…not good. I don’t know if the IOC can let them play in the tournie at all with that kind of level. I mean, I’m talking about them not beating Serbia, Australia and the Netherlands here. For reference, Great Britain will likely finish ~20th this year, and in 2014, South Korea finished 23rd, being relegated to the 3rd tier. I doubt China MAKES the 3rd tier.

    Team sport success remains elusive for the Chinese.

  56. digger50 says:

    Jaxon: For sure. There may be a bit of a bidding war on him depending on what scouts have seen this season. He had no support but they are in the semifinals in the OHL playoffs and he is one of their leaders. It may cost a 2nd rounder (I think I’d pay that), or even a first from a team that has multiple 1sts like NYR, PHI, OTT, DET & NYI although NYI’s picks are way too high for that trade to make sense. I would think NYR’s 28th or 29th pick might win the day or DET’s 27th. PHI’s 19th and OTT’s 22nd would be an overpay in my opinion. NYR or DET? Not sure Edmonton’s 40th would do it.

    As soon as Florida lost him he became available and it was known, so teams have had plenty of opportunity to make an offer. I think Florida is asking too much and thus no movement. For a third rounder he’d be gone already.

    Thing is, he would be good in the pipeline but he is not a sure bet. Third rounder is fair. And the closer Florida gets to losing him for nothing, the price likely goes down, not up.

  57. ChiliChunk says:

    Pink Socks: The Oilers have Brossoit and Ellis as RFA

    CapFriendly shows Brossoit as UFA.

  58. jtblack says:

    In 11 years together, Croz & Malkin have made the Playoffs every season.
    1st Rd – 4
    2nd Rd – 2
    3rd Rd – 1
    Cup Final – 4

    Plus at least 2nd rund this yr (12th yr).

    Pretty Impressive!

  59. Brantford Boy says:

    As per 31 Thoughts:
    “We will get back to Toronto in a moment, but first a word about the Draft Lottery. Not sure how it will end up, but the NHL is considering a “split” on Saturday night. The first 12 picks would be unveiled during the pre-game prior to San Jose/Las Vegas, the final three during the second intermission.”

    Kinda dumb, I get it to have the viewers stick around and the drama but, just get it done all at once…

  60. --hudson-- says:

    dustrock:
    Canada with a shocking loss to the Czechs.

    Poor, uninspired performance.Was not wowed by Veleno or Noel.

    Smith and Merkley played well in terms of decision making but no outstanding plays.

    I have the impression Canada never takes this tournament seriously because of the overlap with CHL playoffs. Similar to how we don’t really care about the WC and instead prefer the Olympics or WCOH. The real under-18s for Canada is the Ivan Hlinka tournament.

    USA hockey has won the under-18s a bunch of times, at one point I think it was over 5 consecutive wins but it never carries over to the IIHF under-20s.

    It’s kind of a shame since Canada probably has enough players to do well at this tournament as well, just not the coordination or coaching to make it happen.

  61. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM:
    When doing “post-New-Years” numbers for a previous post, I decided to do the following too:

    Full season:

    Svechnikov 44, 40-32-72 +26 (1.64 ppg)43.34 NHLE
    Zadina57, 44-38-82 +23 (1.44 ppg)33.53 NHLE

    Post New Years:

    Svechnikov 28, 26-25-51 +16 (1.82 ppg)48.24 NHLE
    Zadina25, 20-16-36 +9 (1.44 ppg) 33.53 NHLE

    It looks like Svechnikov elevated his game in the second half, after coming back from injury. His true level looks to be well above Zadina’s, I’m not sure why many scouts consider them interchangeable at #2.

    Great Point. I am with you on this schevvy is ELITE in my mind I think he was held pointless in 2 of his last 28 Games? and had at least 2 points in 15 of his last 18.

    He has another Level.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilersDynasty:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    He was not passed over. You have to have a birthday before Sept 15th to be drafted in that draft year. He was a “Late Birthday” for 2017. He was one of the “older” members of his draft class. So he played 3 years of Junior before getting drafted.

    Since he was signed, he can play in AHL next season, and if he doesnt play more than 9 NHL games next year, his contract will slide again, just like it would if he played in junior. Then his contract would fully kick in for 2019-2020, though the oilers will probably burn the 1st year of his ELC this year anyway.

    I don’t think the last paragraph is true – his ELC will kick in (i.e. not slide) next year if assigned to Bakersfield.

  63. --hudson-- says:

    Jaxon: Feedback on stats and theories are appreciated. The database includes 2833 players.

    My advice to you is to keep track of the error in your model. The difference between predicted primary points and actual primary points are your residuals. If you square those and sum them all up, then you have your “sum of squared residuals (SSR)”. That’s one stat to track your models performance. Also look at R squared, RMSE, and correlation.

    Another thing I would suggest is validating your model by breaking up the database of 2833. Take 10% of those players and set them aside, then recreate your model on the other 90%. How does the SSR, RMSE, etc. change on the 90% of players? More importantly how does it do on the 10% you’ve set aside?

    Repeat those experiments several times, shuffling different players in the 90/10 split. Also try different splits of 80/20, 70/30, etc.

    It’s fairly easy to build models that can fit data you feed it. You’ll want to use some methods to ensure your model isn’t cheating.

  64. sliderule says:

    On my list of forwards that may be available I am moving Bergglen to the top of list .
    He is tenacious on the forecheck ,great skater and passer.
    To my eyes he was making more plays than any of the forwards that I watched including Hughes Wahlstrom and Farabee.Hughes not eligible of course.
    Wahlstrom will be gone and most of the high end defencemen too but I would be most happy with Bergglen

  65. Oilman99 says:

    Cassandra: Thank you.The Bruins are scum.

    There is nothing more indicative of the childishness of Oiler fans than the way in which their silly hate for the Canucks and the Leafs has led them to cheer for such an awful franchise, one that is genuinely deserving of hate and contempt.

    The Leafs have a team full of young and endearing talent.The Bruins have the worst human being in hockey.And yet you cheer for the Bruins.Shame.

    The Bees finished where they did during the season by earning it. Until the Lafs get a d-core as good as Boston’s they will stay where they are. Sorry ,but Anahiem has the two worst human beings in hockey. Cry your blue tears, it may be fifty years till they win another cup.

  66. Bulging Twine says:

    Lowetide, are there any Montour like skaters on defence in this draft?

  67. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Lowetide, are there any Montour like skaters on defence in this draft?

    I’m not LT, but yes, a whole bunch. Dahlin, Hughes and Boqvist for sure, probably Smith and Dobson, too.

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    LT, I’ve been thinking about your column on winning the draft lottery. In some ways I’d prefer Svechnikov over Dahlin (although I wouldn’t pick him at #1), but the transformation of our defense with Rasmus would be incredible. Next year would be a transition year due to NMC’s and some sheltering for Dahlin, but 18 months from now our d corps could look like this:

    Dahlin – Larsson
    Nurse – Bear
    Klefbom – Berglund

    Benning fits it here age-wise, not sure if Berglund / Bear can outplay him for their spots. Samorukov, Jones and Lagesson could be making a push, too.

    That’s (potentially) world-class, and a group that will contribute for another 8+ years.

    In the event that we don’t win the lotto, I expect Edmonton to take another defenseman in either the 1st (Bouchard, Smith, Dobson) or second round (Addison, Sandin, Merkley). Some of these players could impact the roster by September 2019 as well.

    I think we’re stuck with Sekera & Russell (not necessarily a bad thing) for next year, but after that more young players than ever will be in serious contention for a roster spot. Things are looking up.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Sincere apologies for saying Yamamoto was drafted as an overager. I wanted to say late birthday and got my references confused. Obviously caught and fixed.

    PS, Love the Bruins, will never apologize.

  70. Lowetide says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Lowetide, are there any Montour like skaters on defence in this draft?

    Everywhere you look.

  71. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    Sincere apologies for saying Yamamoto was drafted as an overager. I wanted to say late birthday and got my references confused. Obviously caught and fixed.

    We will let this one slide

  72. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: We will let this one slide

    Thanks! Slurpees for everyone!

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide:
    PS, Love the Bruins, will never apologize.

    None needed. I understand why you do and stated as much.

    PS. I do not love the Bruins, will never apologize. 😉

  74. sliderule says:

    Dahlin ,Hughes and Baqvist are wonderfull skaters by the eye test.

    Dobson and Smith in addition to eyes tested near or at the top in on ice testing at top prospect game.

    You have to think that this is the best group of skating defencemen to come out maybe ever.

    They all seem to advance the puck well and able to get their shots off

    It seems to scream to the oilers take a D

  75. WayneKenov says:

    Wasn’t Yamamoto looking better than that? I thought it was primary pts/60, but maybe it was something else that VOR posted earlier in the year.

  76. dustrock says:

    sliderule:
    Dahlin,Hughes and Baqvist are wonderfull skaters by the eye test.

    Dobson and Smith in addition to eyes tested near or at the top in on ice testing at top prospect game.

    You have to think that this is the best groupof skating defencemen to come out maybe ever.

    They all seem to advance the puck well and able to get their shots off

    It seems to scream to the oilers take a D

    Yes. I like Merkley’s skating too, though not sure he’s at Dobson/Smith level.

    Bouchard the only fear I have is his skating.

  77. jake70 says:

    Really enjoying all the Toronto media’s day after talk, especially the contract extension stuff to Mathews, Marner and the rest, and their lack of D.

  78. Bulging Twine says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Lowetide,

    sliderule,

    Dobson, Smith, Bouchard – who’s the best skater? Who would be third best? By best skater I mean, agility, fluidity, acceleration. (Like Montour)

  79. Rebilled says:

    I like Larsson but we should have traded Hall for Lindsay.

  80. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine:
    ArmchairGM,

    Lowetide,

    sliderule,

    Dobson, Smith, Bouchard – who’s the best skater?Who would be third best?By best skater I mean, agility, fluidity, acceleration.(Like Montour)

    Of the three players mentioned, I would think Smith is the best skater with Dobson a close second, from the little I’ve seen of these players.

  81. Rebilled says:

    and Lucic.

  82. RonnieB says:

    Rebilled,

    Lindsay Lohan ?

  83. Bulging Twine says:

    Pink Socks: Great stuff thank you.I agree, if it’s down to Dobson or Bouchard, I take Bouchard every time.

    Why?

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Key to being a top defencemen especially now with most forwards being able to skate, strong fore checking common, and D partners not being able to obstruct forwards to gain time for their partners puck retrieval is top end skating forward and backward.

    Good edges and stop starts are key as well. The best D gap tight and disrupt entry and if it’s chipped past they can pivot with speed and get to the puck first or at the same time.

    If D don’t trust their skating they gap far and tend to defend positionally going to the net front. It works but they tend to give up a lot of chances and play a lot in the D zone and likely struggle with break outs as moving quickly to open lanes is also key under a heavy fore check and a team playing tight.

    Having height and reach helps, and of course mostly being calm under pressure and having good vision or hockey IQ. And showing defensive awareness, being able to disrupt attack somehow and play top players with success.

    It’s a lot and why the position is so hard to play. I would avoid any D that had any skating deficits as to me that is the player who will drop off the most in today’s game. Some guys overcome that by being smart and efficient, but again they are outliers and fewer each season, don’t try to draft one.

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Pen’s speed and pace of play really neutralize the Cap’s size advantage.

  86. sliderule says:

    Bulging Twine:
    ArmchairGM,

    Lowetide,

    sliderule,

    Dobson, Smith, Bouchard – who’s the best skater?Who would be third best?By best skater I mean, agility, fluidity, acceleration.(Like Montour)

    Dobson and Smith are similar with Smith the smaller man perhaps having better agility.

    Bouchard is smooth but slower which you would expect from a big man

  87. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    The Pen’s speed and pace of play really neutralize the Cap’s size advantage.

    BOOO PENS!!
    GOOO CAPS!!!

  88. rickithebear says:

    Almeida,s is a draft + 1
    So you divide his numbers by 1.4
    It equates to .77 from this years draft players.

    Age matters!

  89. Bling says:

    WayneKenov:
    Wasn’t Yamamoto looking better than that? I thought it was primary pts/60, but maybe it was something else that VOR posted earlier in the year.

    Yamamoto (1.20) was 10th in primary points/60 in the entire WHL this season (all game states). There were only two players younger than him in the top 10. Kole Lind, a 2017 Canucks second rounder (1.45) and Aleksei Hepniemi, a 2017 Panthers second rounder (1.39).

    http://prospect-stats.com/WHL/2017-18/skaters

    Yamamoto (1.60) was also 7th overall in the WHL in overall points/60 this season (all game states)

    At evens, he was thirteenth in the WHL.

    Good arrows. I still think he’ll need another year in the A, but I guess we’ll see at training camp.

  90. rickithebear says:

    Shitty day at docs yesterday.

    Middle sons friend walked up to me!

    “ here you have cancer”

    Me “Yup”

    “Cancer sucks”

    Me “Yes it does”

    “It killed my grandma”

    Me “we had quit a few sleep overs cause grandma got tired”

    “That was fun”

    Me “I am tired right now”,” you boys go play in the back yard”, “ don,t hurt each other”

    “We won,t”

    “can we get Supper”

    Me, “Yup”

    ———————————————-

    I will continue to read!
    Probably won,t post anymore.

    Started meds today.
    Making me tired

  91. rickithebear says:

    GO OILERS!

  92. Pescador says:

    rickithebear:
    Shitty day at docs yesterday.

    Middle sons friend walked up to me!

    “ here you have cancer”

    Me “Yup”

    “Cancer sucks”

    Me “Yes it does”

    “It killed my grandma”

    Me “we had quit a few sleep overs cause grandma got tired”

    “That was fun”

    Me “I am tired right now”,” you boys go play in the back yard”, “ don,t hurt each other”

    “We won,t”

    “can we get Supper”

    Me, “Yup”

    ———————————————-

    I will continue to read!
    Probably won,t post anymore.

    Started meds today.
    Making me tired

    Truly sorry to hear that Ricki,
    You have many friends on this blog whether they agree with you or not.
    Hang in there, best of luck to you and your doctor.
    You’ll be telling him “there’s a better way to do that”
    in no time 😄

  93. Halfwise says:

    rickithebear:
    Shitty day at docs yesterday.

    Middle sons friend walked up to me!

    “ here you have cancer”

    Me “Yup”

    “Cancer sucks”

    Me “Yes it does”

    “It killed my grandma”

    Me “we had quit a few sleep overs cause grandma got tired”

    “That was fun”

    Me “I am tired right now”,” you boys go play in the back yard”, “ don,t hurt each other”

    “We won,t”

    “can we get Supper”

    Me, “Yup”

    ———————————————-

    I will continue to read!
    Probably won,t post anymore.

    Started meds today.
    Making me tired

    Ricki, you have been an impact player here. Thank you.

    Best wishes as you protect your own HD area. Godspeed.

  94. Scungilli Slushy says:

    rickithebear:
    Shitty day at docs yesterday.

    Middle sons friend walked up to me!

    “ here you have cancer”

    Me “Yup”

    “Cancer sucks”

    Me “Yes it does”

    “It killed my grandma”

    Me “we had quit a few sleep overs cause grandma got tired”

    “That was fun”

    Me “I am tired right now”,” you boys go play in the back yard”, “ don,t hurt each other”

    “We won,t”

    “can we get Supper”

    Me, “Yup”

    ———————————————-

    I will continue to read!
    Probably won,t post anymore.

    Started meds today.
    Making me tired

    Sorry to hear that Ricki. I wish you health and happiness.

  95. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Sorry to hear that. Good luck with treatment.

  96. Confused says:

    rickithebear,

    Good luck man, keep up the fight.

    Everyone here is pulling for you.

  97. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear,

    Sorry to hear that Ricki.

    All the best in your fight.

  98. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear,
    Sorry to hear that Ricki. Pardon my language, but #fuckcancer!

  99. OmJo says:

    rickithebear,

    Best of luck in your battle, Ricki… The entire forest is rooting for you.

    All the best..

  100. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    rickithebear,

    – Sh$t Ricki…Keep us posted please. Your a beaut, long been one of my favourites here

    – Depending on what your diagnosis is, there’s so much available today than compared to when we were younger. I wish you and your family only good things

  101. stephen sheps says:

    rickithebear,

    my thoughts are with you right now, Ricki. Survivor of that wretched condition myself. I’m with you in this fight, for what its worth.

  102. Psyche says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki,

    All the best to you on the journey ahead.

    I always enjoy reading your comments and thoughts.

    My thoughts and prayers are with you.

  103. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    Shitty day at docs yesterday.

    Middle sons friend walked up to me!

    “ here you have cancer”

    Me “Yup”

    “Cancer sucks”

    Me “Yes it does”

    “It killed my grandma”

    Me “we had quit a few sleep overs cause grandma got tired”

    “That was fun”

    Me “I am tired right now”,” you boys go play in the back yard”, “ don,t hurt each other”

    “We won,t”

    “can we get Supper”

    Me, “Yup”

    ———————————————-

    I will continue to read!
    Probably won,t post anymore.

    Started meds today.
    Making me tired

    Very upsetting news, ricki. We’re with you and hope you can stop in often. All the best and please keep us updated!

  104. Bling says:

    rickithebear,

    All the best, Mr. Bear. Your posts will be missed, but health comes first!

  105. Wilde says:

    I’ll add to the (well earned) well wishes sent your way Ricki, you’re a unique voice and the discussion here misses something in the in-betweens of your posts.

  106. Wilde says:

    Looks like news is breaking on the coaching staffs front:

    ———————————————————————————–

    Elliotte Friedman

    Verified account

    Not sure the overall impact and all moves, but hearing EDM assistant coach Jay Woodcroft will become head coach at AHL Bakersfield.

    ———————————————————————————–

    Bob McKenzie

    Verified account

    Phase One of EDM (assistant) coaching shuffle expected, perhaps as early as Friday. Multiple moves, including (as has previously been speculated) Jay Woodcroft to be new head coach in Bakersfield (AHL). No replacement hiring(s) just yet.

    I’ll go with Woodcroft to Bakersfield and 2 new guys in Edmonton.

  107. Bling says:

    Wilde,

    I like the idea of having the same system at both the AHL and NHL levels.

    Makes me think that Gulutzan and Yawney is happening.

  108. VOR says:

    Ricki,

    Tough break man. Like Stephen I am a survivor. In my case melanoma. The disease is terrible, the treatment is hell. My prayers are with you.

  109. Rebilled says:

    RonnieB,

    Think I was still drunk from last night.

    Ted Lindsay.

  110. --hudson-- says:

    rickithebear,

    Thoughts and prayers are with you!

  111. Ribs says:

    Sorry to hear, Ricki. Wishing the best of luck to you and your family.

  112. Richard S.S. says:

    How extensive will the changes be, after all PP and PK sucked badly? When McDvid doesn’t score, the Oilers almost always lose. When McDavid’s not on the Ice, this is not even an AHL team. I think other than Peter Chiarelli, Todd McLellan, Keith Gretzky and a few scouts, everyone else goes.

  113. VOR says:

    –hudson–: My advice to you is to keep track of the error in your model.The difference between predicted primary points and actual primary points are your residuals.If you square those and sum them all up, then you have your “sum of squared residuals (SSR)”.That’s one stat to track your models performance.Also look at R squared, RMSE, and correlation.

    Another thing I would suggest is validating your model by breaking up the database of 2833.Take 10% of those players and set them aside, then recreate your model on the other 90%.How does the SSR, RMSE, etc. change on the 90% of players?More importantly how does it do on the 10% you’ve set aside?

    Repeat those experiments several times, shuffling different players in the 90/10 split.Also try different splits of 80/20, 70/30, etc.

    It’s fairly easy to build models that can fit data you feed it.You’ll want to use some methods to ensure your model isn’t cheating.

    Hudson,

    Great answer. One I will try to implement in my own work.

    Total aside, the moment I knew I wanted to be a scientist was when I read Nevil Shute’s brilliant book about a modeller who is on a transatlantic flight when he realizes his model predicts the plane he is flying in is over due to experience disintegration from metal fatigue. I forget which part is about to fail but I was fascinated by how you could possibly know with certainty exactly when it would happen.

    I have come to be extraordinary cautious about my own modelling.

    Thinking about poor Ricki I was remembering as a young man being full of myself and giving a woman a death sentence.

    Jean had breat cancer. The tissue was rounded up. Her LCAMS were terrible. She was receptor negative and node positive and she had evidence of metastatic spread to her bones. Clinically at that time there was no hope at all. The clinicians were offering her false hope and proposing incredibly invasive treatment, slash, burn, and poison.

    I was just in the room to observe. My grad supervisor’s idea. To force me to put a human face to my research. But Jean asked me what I thought. The doctors in the room begrudging let me answer.

    I walked Jean through each step of the model telling her what it meant for her odds of survival and how we knew that. They I walked her through the likely timeline. My point came through loud and clear.

    “I am going to die and very soon and all the treatment your colleagues are recommending will do is make me desperately ill for the few extra months I’m alive.”

    “Yes.”

    Jean declined all treatment and went home to prepare to die. That was in January of 1988.

    Every year at Christmas I get a postcard from Jean from some exotic location. It just says “Still not dead. Jean 1, Math 0.”

    The first one caught me off guard. I responded. We started writing back and forth.

    The strangest thing happened. We became friends. Once a year we spend a week or more hiking somewhere in the Rockies. We chat once or twice a month on the phone and text or email every few days. We meet in person whenever we can.

    The math told me I was talking to a dead woman. The real world decided it was introducing me to my best friend. For thirty years I have been glad I was wrong that bleak January day.

    The thing is I still think the model was perfect. Then it met Jean.

    We have this running joke. I sign my emails and letters CSM and she signs hers TBS. I am the Cock Sure Mathematician and she is The Black Swan.

  114. Ribs says:

    Great story, Vor 🙂

    This blog is the best.

  115. Munny says:

    rickithebear,

    That is a shitty day.

    I was diagnosed for the first time at 27. They said I had spotted it early enough so no need for Chemo, had it cut out, did follow-ups with an oncologist for 5 years to be sure and then they told me everything should be fine, have a good life.

    Two years after that it had metastasized to a lymph gland. I felt a bump one Sunday night, went to a nearby clinic the next day, and was in surgery a week later. This time the prognosis was 30 percent chance of surviving 5 years if I spent a year on Interferon. Which bizarrely was a drug that I had found fascinating earlier in my life… I had written a High School essay and a Uni paper on it.

    I did the year of injections while promising myself a trip to Stonehenge once I got through the ordeal.

    That was 18 years ago now.

    This time on meds is going to be tough, but you can do this. Cancer doesn’t have to be a death sentence. You’re not your average bear.

    Best wishes to you and your family. My thoughts are with you.

  116. jp says:

    rickithebear,

    Best of luck Ricki, hope to see you back to posting soon.

  117. unca miltie says:

    may I add my best wishes Ricki. also a survivor. radiation did the trick There is hope.

  118. flyfish1168 says:

    rickithebear:
    Shitty day at docs yesterday.

    Middle sons friend walked up to me!

    “ here you have cancer”

    Me “Yup”

    “Cancer sucks”

    Me “Yes it does”

    “It killed my grandma”

    Me “we had quit a few sleep overs cause grandma got tired”

    “That was fun”

    Me “I am tired right now”,” you boys go play in the back yard”, “ don,t hurt each other”

    “We won,t”

    “can we get Supper”

    Me, “Yup”

    ———————————————-

    I will continue to read!
    Probably won,t post anymore.

    Started meds today.
    Making me tired

    I hope the Oiler’s win the Lottery, then have an awesome season to go along with a parade next June to bring you good news. Happy and good news is the tonic you need. Get well soon.

  119. hags9k says:

    Best wishes to Ricki, one of my favorite posters. I hope you make a full recovery. Cancer is tough but remember you are a bear.

  120. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Ricki

    My thoughts are with you.

    If you can post when you can, please do. Your view is valued and appreciated, as you are.

  121. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide,
    VOR,
    –hudson–,
    Munny,
    stephen sheps,
    rickithebear,

    Great posts! Lots of inspiration from cancer survivors. As much as it may be the biggest time suck in my life, sometimes I really love this little corner of the internet. Stop in and say hi every once in a while, Ricki. You got this!

  122. Yeti says:

    Very best of wishes to you, Ricki.

  123. russ99 says:

    Best wishes, Ricki, hope you get well soon.

  124. slopitch says:

    rickithebear,

    All the best Ricki

  125. limit says:

    All the best to you rickithebear.

    Speaking of Trust your board…

    Nuge McDavid Puljujarvi
    Hall Draisaitl Yamamoto
    Slepyshev Barzal Eberle
    Reider Khaira Pitlick
    Benson

    Klefbom Petry
    Nurse Schultz
    Davidson Osterle
    Bear

    Dubnyk
    Svoboda

  126. Genjutsu says:

    rickithebear,

    Sad news friend. I’ve always appriciated your prospective on things. We’re all pulling for you.

  127. Genjutsu says:

    limit:
    All the best to you rickithebear.

    Speaking of Trust your board…

    Nuge McDavid Puljujarvi
    Hall Draisaitl Yamamoto
    Slepyshev BarzalEberle
    ReiderKhairaPitlick
    Benson

    Klefbom Petry
    NurseSchultz
    Davidson Osterle
    Bear

    Dubnyk
    Svoboda

    The forwards are much improved. The Defence is much worse.

  128. limit says:

    Genjutsu: The forwards are much improved. The Defence is much worse.

    What if we drafted Carlo or Dermott in 2nd round instead of Reinhart

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