Too much month at the end of the money

What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Peter Chiarelli told us he would like to improve backup goaltending, add a winger or two, and that adding a puck mover for the power play (prefer a righty, might not be possible) was a major priority. Edmonton is up against it when it comes to the cap and added a $2.5 million backup goalie yesterday. There’s only two ways this can go now. You won’t like one and the other probably means missing the playoffs. Are we having fun yet?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

Jon’s piece offers a range of possible outcomes and frames the Koskinen signing well. For $2.5 million on the cap, one would hope for more certainty but if Koskinen delivers we’ll not hear a discouraging word about it. Peter Chiarelli’s signing of Koskinen is somewhat similar to his acquisition of Anders Nilsson in 2015 (except more expensive and less proven). Edmonton’s pro scouts must be convinced of him, I’m surprised PC didn’t aim higher in what is a make or break summer for him. Or, maybe he did and I can’t see it from here. It does look like another Chiarelli expensive bet and gives the organization even less cap room to go shopping.  I think you hope this goalie is Roloson (very late career peak) and appreciate the team can get out from under if things go sideways.

PROJECTED ‘BUDGET’ OPENING NIGHT ROSTER ’18-’19

  • This lands the Oilers at $77 million and gives the club room to wheel at the deadline. I don’t know that they would need the extra money for buying.
  • In this example, I left the defense alone. That’s not a bad idea by the way. Oscar Klefbom should rebound, Andrej Sekera too. I have Ethan Bear as the No. 7 option, more likely we see a Keegan Lowe or Dillon Simpson.
  • There isn’t much money left, so I added two free agents (Patrick Maroon and MPS) to help left wing. You can choose others but the general idea is adding a couple of useful forwards.
  • Bringing back Maroon gives the Oilers some options despite the lack of speed.
  • Plenty of reaction to Ty Rattie at No. 1 right wing I expect, you can place Jesse Puljujarvi there, or Kailer Yamamoto, or Drake Caggiula. Bottom line: One of Yamamoto or Puljujarvi will eventually grab that role, Rattie was the man in that position when everyone laid down their sticks.

PROJECTED ‘CHIARELLI’ OPENING NIGHT ROSTER ’18-’19

This is probably closer to Peter Chiarelli’s dream scenario. Gone are Oscar Klefbom, Zack Kassian and the first-round selection, new hires are in blue. OEL is a free agent in summer 2019, so that’s a major downbeat. The cap room is razor thin, but I’ve included $850,000 of Jesse Puljujarvi’s bonus in this model. Edmonton could use that money as a cushion and any overage would be applied to the 2019-20 cap, so we can estimate around $1 million in space with this model. I did include the Benoit Pouliot $1.33 million buyout penalty above.

This route bleeds young talent but if the team can sign OEL and players like Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson and Kirill Maksimov develop the organization should be okay. The key for Edmonton is Jesse Puljujarvi. He was chosen No. 4 overall and needs to be an outscorer at even strength. I believe he’ll make it.

Kotkaniemi would be an interesting choice for Edmonton. If you look at the current prospect pool, Edmonton has a plethora of defenders (Bear, Jones, but also Berglund, Lagesson, Samorukov et cetera) and might be more interested in a forward. Some very good arrows for the Finn.

He’s such a dynamic player with the puck, I wonder if the Oilers might take a chance. I know the back story and understand the organization is all about good eggs but if you’re trying to win Stanley the idea is to collect more impact players than the other guy. No one argues this young man’s offensive talent. No one. I’d give a 2-4 to know what the Oilers think about him.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We have a great list of guests and a variety of topics. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Edmonton’s brand new goalie.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Some eye popping numbers from mlb’s best early this year.
  • Bill Hoppe, Times Herald. The Sabres finally win a lottery.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

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215 Responses to "Too much month at the end of the money"

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  1. 36 percent body fat says:

    caggulia over slep mistake

    Russel chosen over klefbom mistake

    JP not given PP time mistake

    Griffin Reinhart mistake

    Not going to draft Barzal with pick mistake

    Choosing Lucic over Maroon mistake

    Buying out Pouliot mistake

    Using NMC mistake

    THIS GM “A HUGE MISTAKE” so much damage done, and his supporters say he got the oilers in the playoffs last year. GO back and watch the season again, It was Connor and Talbot with some help from leon and oscar.

  2. Rondo says:

    Kotkaniemi looks like a good pick at #10 but he could be gone by then. I think Barrett Hayton is also worth a look.

    2nd rd Jake Wise Nils Lundkvist Kirill Marchenko

  3. 36 percent body fat says:

    Rondo,

    If Kotkaniemi isnt there that means one of the top 9 is.

    Bouchard, Whalstrom, or Boqvist would be nice. If it is Hughes or Dobson, I think we should look elsewhere.

  4. godot10 says:

    If you take a chance on Merkley, you do it in the 2nd round, or trade up from the 2nd round to get a late first. You don’t take a chance on him at #10OV.

  5. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    Kotkaniemi looks like a good pick at #10 but he could be gone by then. I think Barrett Hayton is also worth a look.

    2nd rd Jake WiseNils Lundkvist Kirill Marchenko

    If Kotkaniemi is gone, then one of the defensemen will be there.

  6. Jaxon says:

    Reposting from late last night’s comments on Lowetide’s previous post as most probably missed it. It might give some hope.

    There are definitely some promising results at #10 in mock drafts posted since the lottery (players still not picked who I like in brackets):

    TSN Button: Boqvist (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    NHL Kimelman: Boqvist (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Sporting News: Bouchard (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    The Score: Veleno (Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Oilers Nation: Dobson (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    The Athletic: Dobson (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    NHL Lepage: Kotkaniemi (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    NHL Morreale: Wahlstrom (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Last Word on Hockey: Smith (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Bleacher Report: Smith (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Fansisded Puck Prose: Smith (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)

    These sites are more consensus rankings than Mock drafts but they do consider team needs:
    MyNHL Draft: Farabee
    DraftSite: Smith
    Tankathon: Farabee

    Boqvist shows up twice!!!! Bouchard shows up too! Dobson, Wahlstrom and Kotkaniemi also fall to #10 in some drafts. Veleno looks like our fall back sure thing. I would be quite happy with Veleno, too.

    PS I’d rather gamble on Merkley or Noel than pick Farabee or Smith.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Well at least the Mcbackup signing means that we are not trading that #10 pick for immediate help

  8. dustrock says:

    I like Kotkaniemi better than Hayton at 10, and probably better than Veleno. Wahlstrom is a dream at this point.

    Given how hard it is to acquire top D talent, I’m still on the “get the best d-man available at 10” train until the draft, unless someone like Wahlstrom is available.

  9. dustrock says:

    leadfarmer:
    Well at least the Mcbackup signing means that we are not trading that #10 pick for immediate help

    I dunno, Klefbom and the #10 for 1 year of OEL just screams Chia’s MO to me.

    Friedman made it sound like certainty that the Oilers would add offence from the D corpse.

    Not “the Oilers are looking to add”, but “the Oilers will add”.

    Have a feeling if they can’t get Karlsson, it’s going to be an overpay for OEL or Faulk.

    Somebody like Woodguy tell me which guy I want on the OIlers.

  10. FlameChampion says:

    Really hard to see this team move forward with any real progress with the Lucic, Sekera, and Russell contracts. They just dont give the Oilers much flexibility moving forward. They have too much money tied up on players who are good but not great players.

    Hard to fix the forwards with the Lucic contract imo based on the results we have seen from him. I still think they should do everything they can to move on from that contract. He could bounce back next year if he loses weight but I cant see it really.

    I think Sekera might bounce back next year. Thats a lot of money though. Really hurts their flexibility.

    Russell had an ok year last year. Hes not really at the top of problems for the Oilers. I just didnt like the 4 year contract.

    Chiarelli has painted himself in a corner. Theres a lot of holes on the wings on this team. I dont think its even close to being adequate.

    I’d just hate to see Klefbom moved over Sekera or Russell unless the medical staff dont think he will recover 100%.

    I still dont think Chiarelli has a plan for this team. Hes going to mortgage the future to try and save his job.

  11. dustrock says:

    I was thinking about players who are a drag on possession.

    LT has shown us forwards such as Cagguila, Rattie and Aberg lead to <50% Corsi even with elite talent such as McDavid and Draisaitl.

    We won't know for sure until we get the full video/chip tracking for every player and puck movement, but I'm wondering how one player can consistently drop a line's possession stats when shifts are 30 seconds to 1 minute long.

    How does Cagguila, for example, drag McDavid and Draisaitl? Is he pointlessly aggressive on the forecheck, which leads to either odd-man rushes or an easier set-up in the OZ for the opposition?

    Is he really poor at NZ coverage? DZ coverage?

    Does he rotate poorly onto the d-men and give up a lot of point shots?

    I mean, you'd have to track Cagguila game-by-game and run the video observations through his stats but that's something I'd be interested in seeing.

    Kind of how WheatNOil was tracking zone entries and recoveries by the d-men, to give a different approach to reviewing the performance.

  12. russ99 says:

    The real issue with the cap is bringing back all of Strome, Benning and Caggiula at higher salaries and one-way deals and keeping Kassian. That’s roughly $8M with LT’s Benning estimate being way too low.

    Renounce and include one or two in trades and we have more room to wheel.

    Also, with McDavid and Draisaitl’s cap hits taking effect this summer, we need to be way better at adding in the lower range of free agency. Every year teams find inexpensive contributors there, there’s no reason why we can’t.

  13. Andy Dufresne says:

    Question: What is the date that OEL could sign a contract extention? Is a sign and trade possible?

    From section 50.5(f) of the CBA:

    A player can only sign an extension in the final year of their contract

    For players on a one-year contract, they need to wait until January 1

  14. who says:

    dustrock: I dunno, Klefbom and the #10 for 1 year of OEL just screams Chia’s MO to me.

    Friedman made it sound like certainty that the Oilers would add offence from the D corpse.

    Not “the Oilers are looking to add”, but “the Oilers will add”.

    Have a feeling if they can’t get Karlsson, it’s going to be an overpay for OEL or Faulk.

    Somebody like Woodguy tell me which guy I want on the OIlers.

    I think you definitely want OEL ahead of Faulk. Don’t think I would trade Klefbom and 10OV for him though. But I could see the Oilers doing it. It kind of makes sense for both teams.
    Arizona won’t be competitive for a few years and it lets them add an impact dman and another quality forward with two top 10 picks. Oilers get that stud dman everyone says they need.
    The thing is, if Klefbom is healthy he might develop into 80 to 90 percent of OEL, at half the cost. This assumes you extend OEL at 8 million per year. I think retaining Klefbom at 4 million has more value in a cap world.

  15. Donye West says:

    In the “worst case”, if the top 9 drafted are:
    Dahlin, Zadina, Svechnikov, Tkachuk, Boqvist,Wahlstrom, Q. Hughes, Ty Smith & Olofsson

    it leaves us with a choice from:
    Kotkaniemi, Evan Bouchard, Noah Dobson or Farabee, or even Riley Merkley.

    I would prefer any of the top 9 over these choices but any outcome looks good. I really hope we don’t trade the pick.

  16. Woogie63 says:

    This summer doesn’t include OEL or Vanek and if Sekera plays well at the WC, I doubt you see a significant dman added to this team.

    I would suggest PC’s plan for the summer is

    1. Get tandem goalies, that can deliver .917 SAV% – He is done on this agenda item
    2. Sign Nurse for $4M ish for as whatever term that gets you (5-7 years) – With 25 at WC, prob. done
    3. Get two quality assistant coaches that can improve the PP and PK – Half done
    4. Draft really well – List will be done in a few weeks
    5. Find a RHD that will push Benning to #7, (If Sekera is fine at WC) – Wait and see
    6. Build the Assistant coaching staff in Bakersfield. – TBD
    7. Sign other RFAs – Started
    8.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    dustrock,

    I would take OEL over Faulk even with the wronghandedness every day of the week. Although the acquisition cost will be much higher and the contract in a year will not be manageable

  18. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I’m not sure how much worse “peak” Klef is than OEL. 2 years younge, cheaper, longer-term (its a really nice contract) Klef’s 38 points when he was healthy is OEL-ish

    – The biggest knock on Klef though has been being able to play a full-season. He’s only done it once. I don’t care whose fault it is nor am I saying he’s injury-prone, but playing full seasons matter

    – For sure they won’t come back with the same D-corpse.

    – We don’t know what Mikko’s cap is by the way, only he’s being paid $2.5MM: what if cap is 2?

    – Pretty sure we can make it all work, with a $82MM cap (stronger CAD$ helps) Different D composition, a mid-level winger, and another Cami-type winger, and this back-up

    – The tone in here and “resignation” that Chia will do bad has been disheartening. It’s also a good example IMO of “recency bias” last year, game 7 of 2nd round, Coach and GM up for awards, the consensus was we were ready for a cup run (yes some min-dissenters, who predicied only barely playoffs, and Yeti!)

    – Now, based on not changing the roster much, after a poor season, the belief is this is a terrible team, and we are doomed.

    – I think collectively we all over-estimated the team last year, and it’s good that the expectations are so bad for the upcoming year: it’s just tough to read mostly resignation, and predicitons of doom.

    – Will still read and post though!

  19. Rafa Nadal says:

    Donye West,

    What do you see in Dobson and Bouchard that make you think they’re in a different class than the other 9 players? Most lists I’ve seen have Dobson rounding out the top 9 before a noticeable drop off in talent begins.

  20. Andy Dufresne says:

    If OEL goes to Toronto for say Nylander and Torontos first round pick, (again assuming OEL has agreed to “framework” for a longer term deal) how many people will lose their shit that the Oilers werent in on OEL?

    (Keeping in mind that Nylander was a ghost for Toronto (disappeared) in the playoffs and would be a Chayka favorite/darling))

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woogie63:
    This summer doesn’t include OEL or Vanek and if Sekera plays well at the WC, I doubt you see a significant dman added to this team.

    I would suggest PC’s plan for the summer is

    1. Get tandem goalies, that can deliver .917 SAV% – He is done on this agenda item
    2. Sign Nurse for $4M ish for as whatever term that gets you (5-7 years) – With 25 at WC, prob. done
    3. Get two quality assistant coaches that can improve the PP and PK – Half done
    4. Draft really well – List will be done in a few weeks
    5. Find a RHD that will push Benning to #7, (If Sekera is fine at WC) – Wait and see
    6. Build the Assistant coaching staff in Bakersfield. – TBD
    7. Sign other RFAs – Started
    8.

    Agreed. THis would represent plan B IMO

    “If” plan A is procure a top end RHD

    Plan B is somehting like Benning and the #10 for Faulk and Carolinas 2nd rounder #42 IMO

  22. Andy Dufresne says:

    Why is Team Finlands World Hockey Championships Roster not available ANYWHERE, you can find pretty much every other country but not Finland.

    Is Mikko Kostinen eligible to play for Finland??

  23. Andy Dufresne says:

    Brenden Gallagher suspended indefinitley after game one at IIHF World Championships.

    Rosters not yet finalized. Not too late to replace him with Ty Rattie.
    .
    .
    .
    .

    KIDDING!!!!…….Gallagher is suspended though.

  24. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    If OEL goes to Toronto for say Nylander and Torontos first round pick, (again assuming OEL has agreed to “framework” for a longer term deal) how many people will lose their shit that the Oilers werent in on OEL?

    It is probably going to cost $9 million per season to re-sign OEL after Carlson, Doughty, and Karlsson get their new deals.

    I’m fine with Nurse, Klefbom, and Sekera as the Oilers left D.

    Ekman-Larsson is going to cost as much or nearly as much as Nurse and Klefbom together.

    This is a hard cap league. Ekman-Larsson doesn’t add much value for the money over what the Oilers already have.

    The Oilers need a coach who can maximize the roster. The Oilers don’t have that. Until the Oilers realize this, they will continue to make ill-advised roster moves that lower ceiling of the team.

  25. Andy Dufresne says:

    godot10,

    Fair Point. (Actually better than a Fair Point…Its a Good Point.)

    For the very reason you point out, I might actually prefer plan B which allows us to keep Klefbom.

    Benning and #10 for Faulk.

    Or for those who think this is too much to pay

    Benning and #10 for Faulk and Carolinas 2nd rounder #42

  26. Doug McLachlan says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Why is Team FinlandsWorld Hockey Championships Roster not available ANYWHERE, you can find pretty much every other country but not Finland.

    Is Mikko Kostinen eligible to play for Finland??

    I haven’t seen the roster but I think Swedish Poster reported on yesterday’s comments that Koskinen was rehabbing a groin tweak that will keep him out for a few weeks. He then speculated that if he hadn’t gone to the Olympics he would have been on Finland’s roster – implication, lest everyone panic, that the groin thing truly is minor.

  27. Dustylegnd says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Completely agree, yes every team has blatant, as well as nuanced differences, but 2 years ago Tampa missed the playoffs , and Winnipeg and Colorado missed the playoffs last year

    Both Winnipeg and Tampa struggled with injuries and consistent goaltending on the missed playoff years, and yes both had new players arrive via savvy drafting……Colorado struggled in a lot of areas but by subtracting one of their most talented players they succeeded beyond most expectations

    My point is that making the playoffs vs being a doormat is razor thin in todays league, I think radical change or Big Game Hunting moves by Chia are out of the question, he has to tweak what is broke, hope for a rebound out of both Kleff and Sek (which would make a massive difference to the D corp) hope for a rebound from Talbot and hope for another step by Nurse and a quantum leap from Pool

    The scenario described seems like a low probability event,but really there is a solid chance Talbot Kleff and Sek are exponentially better, Nurse may flat line, and Pool probably doesn’t score 20….but McDavid and Nuge should have an entire season to dominate

    All is not lost, and all is not doom and gloom in my eyes, any team that has a healthy McDavid with good Goaltending and healthy D has a better than average shot at the playoffs

    Lets hope for good luck and a savvy draft

  28. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    godot10,

    Fair Point.

    For the very reason you point out, I might actually prefer plan B which allows us to keep Klefbom.

    Benning and #10 for Faulk.

    I’m opposed to trading the #10OV (unless Lucic is attached to it).

    The Oilers made their bet on Russell. They have to live with it for a couple of more years. Don’t compound the mistate by making another.

  29. leadfarmer says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    If OEL goes to Toronto for say Nylander and Torontos first round pick, (again assuming OEL has agreed to “framework” for a longer term deal) how many people will lose their shit that the Oilers werent in on OEL?

    I think most people would say I dont think we could top that deal. I mean we could but we definitely wouldnt want to

  30. --hudson-- says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Why is Team FinlandsWorld Hockey Championships Roster not available ANYWHERE, you can find pretty much every other country but not Finland.

    Is Mikko Kostinen eligible to play for Finland??

    It’s believed Koskinen has a minor injury so he won’t play.

    https://yle.fi/urheilu/3-10185365

    Goalkeepers

    Ville Husso (San Antonio)
    Eero Kilpeläinen (Örebro)
    Harri Säteri (Florida)

    defenders

    Miro Heiskanen (HIFK)
    Julius Honka (Dallas)
    Niko Mikkola (Tappara)
    Markus Nutivaara (Columbus)
    Tommi Kivistö (Jokerit)
    Miika Koivisto (Kärpät)
    Ville Pokka (Belleville)
    Juuso Riikola (KalPa)

    attackers

    Sebastian Aho (Carolina)
    Marko Anttila (Jokerit)
    Mikael Granlund (Minnesota)
    Pekka Jormakka (Jokerit)
    Kasperi Kapanen (Toronto)
    Sakari Manninen (Örebro)
    Saku Mäenalanen (Kärpät)
    Mika Niemi Jokerit
    Olli Palola
    Janne Pesonen (Växjö)
    Mikko Rantanen (Colorado)
    Veli-Matti Savinainen (South)
    Antti Suomela (HIFK)
    Teuvo Teräväinen (Carolina)

  31. Andy Dufresne says:

    –hudson–,

    Thank you to You and to Doug McLachlan

  32. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Dustylegnd,

    – Yeah – LT is more plugged in than we are: he’s projecting big-game hunting from a desperate (and bad) GM, sanctioned by the organization, that is going to bleed value for the sake of getting into the playoffs next year in order to save his job.

    – I agree with you (as does LT), you really need Pool to be more of a factor (he’s progressed reasonably IMO).

    – If you think Sek and Klef are going to be 100% next year, you don’t need over-haul of D (but add another guy to the mix if possible)

    – No matter what happens this off-season though, every move will be generally criticized, as an over-pay, or giving up on a good player, or paying too much, or too much term, or a bad trade It is what it is, and based on last years’ results, it’s a normal outcome. Chia and the organzation have lost a lot of trust and belief from many fans.

    – Can’t wait for next season to start.

    – For the record, I bet there is no whale-hunting, they keep the draft-pick, they sign a mid-level winger, get another D, get good coaches, Kailer is 3RW and we have a nice season

    – Time for me to prepare my “off-season predicition contest”!

  33. Woogie63 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Agreed. THis would represent plan B IMO

    If plan A is procure a top end RHD

    Plan B is somehting likeBenning and the #10 for FaulkIMO

    A Top End RHD? I think there are 13 players that “fit” that description
    Carlson, Burns, Klingberg, Karlsson, Doughty, Subben, Jones, Pietrangelo, Letang, Byfuglien, Hamilton, Ellis: imho none are coming to Edmonton this summer

    A 1 or 2nd pairing RHD on the Oilers?
    Dumba, Barrie, Parayko, Green, Trouba, Erik Johnson, Ristolainen, Demers; never say never, but

    Rumoured to be available …
    Erik Johnson, Green (UFA)

  34. 36 percent body fat says:

    Donye West,

    Ollofson wont be in the top 10. I think this guy is a steal, but he is ranked mid to late first round. Scouts dont value NHLE as much as us.

  35. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woogie63: A Top End RHD?I think there are 13 players that “fit” that description
    Carlson, Burns, Klingberg, Karlsson, Doughty, Subben, Jones, Pietrangelo, Letang, Byfuglien, Hamilton, Ellis: imho none are coming to Edmonton this summer

    A 1 or 2nd pairing RHD on the Oilers?
    Dumba, Barrie, Parayko, Green, Trouba, Erik Johnson, Ristolainen, Demers; never say never, but

    Rumoured to be available …
    Erik Johnson, Green (UFA)

    Agreed.

    Question for you. If one of the top group Ryan Ellis for example were available but it would cost something like Klefbom and the 10th. Is this something you would consider?

    Is there a trade scenario you would consider? Klefbom and what?

  36. 36 percent body fat says:

    Rafa Nadal,

    Bouchard has the 3rd highest NHLE in the Draft and he is a defenseman. Dobson is young and has tools. However Dobson plays in the Q, huge discount factor for me.

  37. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer: I think most people would say I dont think we could top that deal.I mean we could but we definitely wouldnt want to

    Thats Fair.

  38. Alpine says:

    I’m not sure how the Oilers can afford to send away just Benning out as a contract for someone like Faulk and have like, 6 D making north of 4 mil with nurse getting a raise. Seems like we’re getting a Klefbom trade at the very minimum.

    I actually wonder if they move Klefbom to a team needing D and just take a 1st rounder and prospects back. Would Detroit consider Klefbom too old for their window? Probably. Rangers are just starting their rebuild. Isles lost Hamonic last year and have an extra 1st. Not sure if they wanna rebuild yet. Hmmmm….

  39. 36 percent body fat says:

    36 percent body fat,

    also Hallander, another player from Sweden who is younger than Ollofson, is about the same size and has a higher NHLE and outscored Ollofson in the same league. He is ranked in the mid second.

  40. Dustylegnd says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I think you lay out the highest probability offseason, whale hunting is hard, and with the “oversight committee” looking over Chia’s shoulder, they will not get a consensus on a “Big Trade”

    Chia will add a middling Winger and probably a different D man

    There fan base is justified in their disappointment and lack of trust because playoffs 1 of 11 years is nothing more than a random outlier…..and the Fans quite rightly are sick of losing

    I think the real key is for the “committee” to make sure the pick is kept and do not reach at #10…have a good productive draft ….install a new paradigm of draft and development…no exceptions…the other way DOES NOT WORK

  41. dustrock says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Rafa Nadal,

    Bouchard has the 3rd highest NHLE in the Draft and he is a defenseman.Dobson is young and has tools.However Dobson plays in the Q, huge discount factor for me.

    Sam Gagner and Rob Schremp were scoring machines. They have the same weakness that Bouchard might have.

    I wouldn’t be upset if the Oilers picked Bouchard, but he plays a ton of minutes and he doesn’t have the skating of Hughes, Smith or Bouchard (or Boqvist, who I assume wlll be gone).

  42. Dustylegnd says:

    Alpine,

    I think Woodguy can provide you with a lot of analysis about why we want absolutely nothing to do with Faulk

  43. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: It is probably going to cost $9 million per season to re-sign OEL after Carlson, Doughty, and Karlsson get their new deals.

    I’m fine with Nurse, Klefbom, and Sekera as the Oilers left D.

    Ekman-Larsson is going to cost as much or nearly as much as Nurse and Klefbom together.

    This is a hard cap league.Ekman-Larsson doesn’t add much value for the money over what the Oilers already have.

    The Oilers need a coach who can maximize the roster.The Oilers don’t have that.Until the Oilers realize this, they will continue to make ill-advised roster moves that lower ceiling of the team.

    I have to agree. There are only a few D, as in maybe 3-4 in the entire league, that are going to add enough marginal value at the coming cap hits. And most of those guys are on the crest of the hill.

    Winnipeg doesn’t have an elite defencemen, but great depth. It works. Given the amount D get hurt I think 2 5M D has a bigger overall impact than one at 10m unless he’s exceptional. You have to draft the really special players, and it involves a lot of luck.

  44. Alpine says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Alpine,

    I think Woodguy can provide you with a lot of analysis about why we want absolutely nothing to do with Faulk

    I’ve read as much from WG. I don’t want Faulk either.

  45. russ99 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Dustylegnd,

    – Yeah – LT is more plugged in than we are: he’s projecting big-game hunting from a desperate (and bad) GM, sanctioned by the organization, that is going to bleed value for the sake of getting into the playoffs next year in order to save his job.

    – I agree with you (as does LT), you really need Pool to be more of a factor (he’s progressed reasonably IMO).

    – If you think Sek and Klef are going to be 100% next year, you don’t need over-haul of D (but add another guy to the mix if possible)

    – No matter what happens this off-season though, every move will be generally criticized, as an over-pay, or giving up on a good player, or paying too much, or too much term, or a bad tradeIt is what it is, and based on last years’ results, it’s a normal outcome.Chia and the organzation have lost a lot of trust and belief from many fans.

    – Can’t wait for next season to start.

    – For the record, I bet there is no whale-hunting, they keep the draft-pick, they sign a mid-level winger, get another D, get good coaches, Kailer is 3RW and we have a nice season

    – Time for me to prepare my “off-season predicition contest”!

    Fair comments. The whole Chia over-reaching to save his job narrative is disingenuous at best. It’s obvious Katz wants playoff dates and we need to improve to keep Connor and Leon for the 8 years of their contract. This is the driver, not GM/coach hubris.

    IMO, there’s no reason we can’t build the system and improve the NHL roster at the same time. I don’t expect whale hunting, but if we can improve the player group with a deal, why not do it?

    It may involve being proactive at the draft, taking risks on players (better to risk on players with track records like our new goalie, than on an age group and career AHLers like last summer) and FA shopping on July 10th instead of July 1st.

    I’m at the point though where some fans need to take their confirmation that last season’s results that they were at least partially right, and move on from the vitriol and expectation that everything the club does is garbage.

    The coaching staff changes and AHL fixes aren’t garbage. Firing or finding non-hockey ops roles for MacTavish and Howson, etc. to satisfy Katz so the AHL team is run better and because they lost the power struggle (which I expect after the Cup Final) isn’t garbage.

    Openly cheering for a bad/rebuild year next year due to a need for further confirmation of how we know more than the coach/GM and how this or that guy should have been fired is counterproductive.

    We all want the Oilers to do well and that’s within the majority of this player group, the revised coaching staff and management team’s grasp with the changes I expect to come.

  46. McSorley33 says:

    Funny, it just feels like it was a few weeks this GM traded for a backup goalie…..

  47. ArmchairGM says:

    “I’d give a 2-4 to know what the Oilers think about him.”

    They like him, but not enough to take him at #10. Now, about that beer…

  48. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    My question is how long is training camp going to last next season? How many rookies get 9 games? How many experiments is the coach going to run before deciding the season is lost?

    This team needs it’s line up locked down and ready to go on opening night.

  49. Andy Dufresne says:

    Would anyone in here be on-board with a deal the involved Klefbom and brought us Ryan Ellis?

  50. Andy Dufresne says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Alpine,

    I think Woodguy can provide you with a lot of analysis about why we want absolutely nothing to do with Faulk

    Woodguy and Ricki the Bear…….how often does that happen?

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Would anyone in here be on-board with a deal the involved Klefbom and brought us Ryan Ellis?

    Probably, why would the Preds do that?

  52. Alpine says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Would anyone in here be on-board with a deal the involved Klefbom and brought us Ryan Ellis?

    I would but Ellis is UFA next season so it’s the same as trading for OEL. Ellis probably gets 6+ easily on his next deal.

  53. Alpine says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Probably, why would the Preds do that?

    Ellis is UFA and Klefbom will be definitely cheaper for the four seasons after next. If they think they can’t fit in Ellis’ raise (and he will get a nice one) it would make sense to trade for a cost controlled younger D.

  54. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Probably, why would the Preds do that?

    Im Pretty sure Bob Stauffer threw Ryan Ellis name as a “what if” a few days ago.

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock: I dunno, Klefbom and the #10 for 1 year of OEL just screams Chia’s MO to me.

    Friedman made it sound like certainty that the Oilers would add offence from the D corpse.

    Not “the Oilers are looking to add”, but “the Oilers will add”.

    Have a feeling if they can’t get Karlsson, it’s going to be an overpay for OEL or Faulk.

    Somebody like Woodguy tell me which guy I want on the OIlers.

    I’m not WG but OEL is far and away the better player between the two.

  56. Andy Dufresne says:

    “This is probably closer to Peter Chiarelli’s dream scenario. Gone are Oscar Klefbom, Zack Kassian and the first-round selection, new hires are in blue. OEL is a free agent in summer 2019, so that’s a major downbeat.”

    Replace OEL with Ryan Ellis and I think is reasonably accurate.

    AND Thomas Vanek is coming off of 1 year $2million contract (granted he had a good year and is UFA) but any chance he looks at htis Oilers Roster and sees NO ONE who can challenge him for the 1RW spot. Would playing along side McDavid be enough for him to consider signing a similar 1yr $2m conract? (Remember, we helped Vanek gets his $10million Salary Ten years ago. He owes us one. haha)

    So Ryan Ellis saves you $3m over OEL next season and Vanek at say $2.5 (gives him a raise) and saves $1m on the chart

    That would be $4m in cap space with an $80m cap for 2018-19.

    And if the cap goes to $82m, You could sign Nurse Long Term( $4.8M and still have $4.5m in cap space…thats after paying for Koskinen, Derek Ryan, Vanek, Magnus Pajarvi….

    That takes you to 2019-20 where both Sekera and Russell contracts go from NO MOVE to limited no trade….one of these guys gets moved.

    Edit: Even though I think the chart is right that Vanek would slot more naturally in the 2RW slot with Leon)

  57. dustrock says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Oh this is absolutely my thought, i was just thinking Leftorium and acquisition cost.

  58. ArmchairGM says:

    Woogie63:
    This summer doesn’t include OEL or Vanek and if Sekera plays well at the WC, I doubt you see a significant dman added to this team.

    I would suggest PC’s plan for the summer is

    1. Get tandem goalies, that can deliver .917 SAV% – He is done on this agenda item
    2. Sign Nurse for $4M ish for as whatever term that gets you (5-7 years) – With 25 at WC, prob. done
    3. Get two quality assistant coaches that can improve the PP and PK – Half done
    4. Draft really well – List will be done in a few weeks
    5. Find a RHD that will push Benning to #7, (If Sekera is fine at WC) – Wait and see
    6. Build the Assistant coaching staff in Bakersfield. – TBD
    7. Sign other RFAs – Started
    8.

    5. Benning’s numbers were quite good last year, I’m not sure why you think he can’t play 3RD going forward.

    However, I would like to see something like Kassian for van Riemsdyk happen in the offseason. TVR can probably play 2RD, meaning Sekera, Russell and Benning can fight over the final 2 spots.

  59. --hudson-- says:

    dustrock: Sam Gagner and Rob Schremp were scoring machines.They have the same weakness that Bouchard might have.

    I wouldn’t be upset if the Oilers picked Bouchard, but he plays a ton of minutes and he doesn’t have the skating of Hughes, Smith or Bouchard (or Boqvist, who I assume wlll be gone).

    Bouchard doesn’t have the skating of Bouchard? Are there two Bouchards or a typo?

  60. Ryan says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not WG but OEL is far and away the better player between the two.

    I was banging on the Faulk drum ages ago.

    Didn’t someone mention that Faulk has bulked up too much last summer? I recall reading comments that he was glacially slow last season after being told to muscle up.

    I can’t see a scenario where you can trade for one year of OEL with the Oilers cap structure that wouldn’t be incredibly foolish.

    For Faulk, you’d have to know if there’s any chance for a bounce back.

  61. Professor Q says:

    dustrock: Sam Gagner and Rob Schremp were scoring machines.They have the same weakness that Bouchard might have.

    I wouldn’t be upset if the Oilers picked Bouchard, but he plays a ton of minutes and he doesn’t have the skating of Hughes, Smith or Bouchard (or Boqvist, who I assume wlll be gone).

    Bouchard doesn’t have the skating of Bouchard?

    Also, the whole skating thing about Bouchard is disingenuous. I’ve seen him play live multiple times and he’s actually quite graceful, speedy, and McDavid/Hall/Orr-esque in the way he takes the puck from one end to the other. Shifts laterally a lot (a bit of an Ovechkin-lite rover) and plays both LD and RD.

    He’s also 6’2″, so doesn’t have the size issues that Gagner, Schremp, and Syvret had.

  62. RonnieB says:

    Jaxon:
    Reposting from late last night’s comments on Lowetide’s previous post as most probably missed it. It might give some hope.

    There are definitely some promising results at #10 in mock drafts posted since the lottery (players still not picked who I like in brackets):

    TSN Button: Boqvist (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    NHL Kimelman: Boqvist (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Sporting News: Bouchard (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    The Score: Veleno (Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Oilers Nation: Dobson (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    The Athletic: Dobson (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    NHL Lepage: Kotkaniemi (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    NHL Morreale: Wahlstrom (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Last Word on Hockey: Smith (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Bleacher Report: Smith (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Fansisded Puck Prose: Smith (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)

    These sites are more consensus rankings than Mock drafts but they do consider team needs:
    MyNHL Draft: Farabee
    DraftSite: Smith
    Tankathon: Farabee

    Boqvist shows up twice!!!! Bouchard shows up too! Dobson, Wahlstrom and Kotkaniemi also fall to #10 in some drafts. Veleno looks like our fall back sure thing. I would be quite happy with Veleno, too.

    PS I’d rather gamble on Merkley or Noel than pick Farabee or Smith.

    Interesting that only 2 names show up on all 11 of these mock drafts…Valeno and Merkley. If all 9 of the top names are gone when #10 comes up i think i would go for Valeno; this is a name that has been consistently in the top half of the draft for about a year.

    Edit: need to get my eyes checked. Noel shows up on all 11 also.

  63. Death By Misadventure says:

    This being a mathy blog and all, can we come to a measurable consensus as to “whale hunting” means?

    Is it cap hit?
    Total contract value?
    Is it the assets given up?
    Where is the cut off?

  64. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    This being a mathy blog and all, can we come to a measurable consensus as to “whale hunting” means?

    Is it cap hit?
    Total contract value?
    Is it the assets given up?
    Where is the cut off?

    To me it’s trying to acquire a player with an established rep as a good or better player that has or will command a big salary.

    Typically these are older players and at or approaching UFA. Young whales rarely leave their pod these days.

    Rarely works out for the team buying.

  65. Cassandra says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    If OEL goes to Toronto for say Nylander and Torontos first round pick, (again assuming OEL has agreed to “framework” for a longer term deal) how many people will lose their shit that the Oilers werent in on OEL?

    (Keeping in mind that Nylander was a ghost for Toronto (disappeared) in the playoffs and would be a Chayka favorite/darling))

    Good lord, why on earth would Toronto trade Nylander and a first round pick for OEL.

    Nylander alone is a dramatic overpayment.

    OEL only has one year left on his contract. Even if you trade for a “signed” OEL the additional years come at UFA prices which means, unless he somehow signs for cheaper than market rates, those years have little value in comparison to the RFA years of a comparable player.

    RFA years always have more value than UFA years.

    You should never trade an RFA contract for a UFA contract.

  66. jtblack says:

    How many goals can we expect from that bottom 6?

    and prob is Benning is slotted too high and Russell on right side is a fail.

    oh well …

  67. Cassandra says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I have to agree. There are only a few D, as in maybe 3-4 in the entire league, that are going to add enough marginal value at the coming cap hits. And most of those guys are on the crest of the hill.

    Winnipeg doesn’t have an elite defencemen, but great depth. It works. Given the amount D get hurt I think 2 5M D has a bigger overall impact than one at 10m unless he’s exceptional. You have to draft the really special players, and it involves a lot of luck.

    Byfuglien is elite.

  68. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    This being a mathy blog and all, can we come to a measurable consensus as to “whale hunting” means?

    Is it cap hit?
    Total contract value?
    Is it the assets given up?
    Where is the cut off?

    – For me it would be any/all of:

    a) D with a higher annual salary than Sek (our highest paid D)
    b) A winger with a higher annual salary than RNH
    c) Trading a Klef/Nurse/RNH just “to get better”
    d) Trading the 1st pick/Pool/Kailer/Bear for immediate impact player
    e) Some crazy/costly buy-out/trade of the NTC players that some here think is a potential

    – Non-whale hunting division:
    a) Trade Benning/Kassian/Caggs/Talbot
    b) Trade 2nd pick or beyond for other things
    c) Trade any AHL’er player non Bear/Jones or Kailer (like Benson for instance)
    d) signing a winger sub-$4MM
    e) signing the next Cammi/Joki/Jagr
    f) signing the next Benning/Auvitu/some college guy
    g) signing a D sub-$4MM

  69. Cassandra says:

    To put it another way would you rather have:

    Carlson + Nylander or OEL.

    There is no contract value for Carlsson or OEL in which you would give up Nylander for the difference between them.

    If you are going to be giving out a big UFA contract anyway it makes no sense to give up a prime player on an RFA contract for the privilege.

  70. Andy Dufresne says:

    Cassandra: Good lord, why on earth would Toronto trade Nylander and a first round pick for OEL.

    Nylander alone is a dramatic overpayment.

    OEL only has one year left on his contract.Even if you trade for a “signed” OEL the additional years come at UFA prices which means, unless he somehow signs for cheaper than market rates, those years have little value in comparison to the RFA years of a comparable player.

    RFA years always have more value than UFA years.

    You should never trade an RFA contract for a UFA contract.

    I get your point on UFA vs RFA and agree.

    My scenario would include a signed OEL hence why I asked earlier:

    “Question: What is the date that OEL could sign a contract extention? Is a sign and trade possible?

    From section 50.5(f) of the CBA:

    A player can only sign an extension in the final year of their contract

    For players on a one-year contract, they need to wait until January 1”
    .
    .

    Nylander was INVISIBLE in the playoffs. And the Leafs are DESPERATE for a Top Pair Dman.

    I think you grossly under-estimate the rarity of top pair dmen and their market value.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    You mentioned Dillon Simpson and Keegan Lowe as potential options for the 7D and it go me thinking, when are we going to start to see some internal housekeeping type matters/signings – guys like Benning and Caggulia, also Strome and Nurse – maybe even some bubble contract guys like Brossoit, Ellis, Russell, LaLeggia, Simpson, Lowe, etc.

  72. --hudson-- says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    You mentioned Dillon Simpson and Keegan Lowe as potential options for the 7D and it go me thinking, when are we going to start to see some internal housekeeping type matters/signings – guys like Benning and Caggulia, also Strome and Nurse – maybe even some bubble contract guys like Brossoit, Ellis, Russell, LaLeggia, Simpson, Lowe, etc.

    We’ve seen Rattie and now Koskinen. Perhaps the delay in others is a tell?

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    1) I don’t imagine that D. Ryan signs for under $2M, not when he put up close to 40 points and brings other assets than offence.

    2) So, Klef and the 10th for OEL (who either stays for one years and bolts or re-signs for double the cap-hit of Klef)

    Jim M. has been adamant that management desires OEL big-time – we know what happens when Chiarelli gets targeted on a player – Hall leaves, 4X4 plus NMC happens on June 23, an unproven goalie to compete for the back-up spot costs $2.5M. etc.

  74. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    1) I don’t imagine that D. Ryan signs for under $2M, not when he put up close to 40 points and brings other assets than offence.

    2) So, Klef and the 10th for OEL (who either stays for one years and bolts or re-signs for double the cap-hit of Klef)

    Jim M. has been adamant that management desires OEL big-time – we know what happens when Chiarelli gets targeted on a player – Hall leaves, 4X4 plus NMC happens on June 23, an unproven goalie to compete for the back-up spot costs $2.5M. etc.

    Pray that the Target is Ryan Ellis……(see above)

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    With the cap hit estimate at under $200k, one would need to start factoring in what would normally be nominal amounts like the $40K that would stick on the cap with Montoya in the minors, etc.

  76. anjinsan says:

    Chiarelli signed Draisaitl at 8.5 instead of 6.
    Consider Scheifele was signed for 6.125 x 8.
    Chiarelli overpaid for Draissaitl by $2.5MM/season x 8 years. Yuck.
    Consider that the amount he overpaid for Draisaitl is the amount he’s spending on Koskinen.
    He didn’t just harm the Oilers. He harmed them for years.
    Hide your eyes. You know he’s going to squander. Whatever the plan. That’s the reality.
    It took Papa Wirtz’s passingn away for Rocky Wirtz to get control of the Blackhawks.
    He immediately put in very good management and a One Goal focus.
    That’s was a real plan in its inception. It took some time.
    Katz in contrast is just profiteering at public expense, and past performance is the best indicator of future performance.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    36 percent body fat:
    caggulia over slep mistake

    Russel chosen over klefbom mistake

    JP not given PP time mistake

    Griffin Reinhart mistake

    Not going to draft Barzal with pick mistake

    Choosing Lucic over Maroon mistake

    Buying out Pouliot mistake

    Using NMC mistake

    THIS GM “A HUGE MISTAKE”so much damage done, and his supporters say he got the oilers in the playoffs last year. GO back and watch the season again,It was Connor and Talbot with some help from leon and oscar.

    Prior to getting back to the playoffs, didn’t Chiarelli:

    – acquire Talbot

    – re-sign Oscar to a great long term contract

    I don’t understand how a person can say that no credit should be given to the general manager but credit should be given to Talobt – the GM acquire Talbot. No acquisition, no Talbot, no playoffs.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rondo:
    Kotkaniemi looks like a good pick at #10 but he could be gone by then. I think Barrett Hayton is also worth a look.

    If Kotkaniemi goes in the top 9, then a heck of a prospect is going to drop to us at 10.

  79. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    1) I don’t imagine that D. Ryan signs for under $2M, not when he put up close to 40 points and brings other assets than offence.

    2) So, Klef and the 10th for OEL (who either stays for one years and bolts or re-signs for double the cap-hit of Klef)

    Jim M. has been adamant that management desires OEL big-time – we know what happens when Chiarelli gets targeted on a player – Hall leaves, 4X4 plus NMC happens on June 23, an unproven goalie to compete for the back-up spot costs $2.5M. etc.

    Derek Ryan is almost a career AHLer. He was undrafted. He is 31 years old and this year was his first full NHL season.

    In 2016 he had an almost identical year PPG and went on to sign a one-year deal for $1.425m.

    IMO $1.8m would represent a significant raise for Derek Ryan and would bring him home. Hes a UofA Alumni.

  80. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With the cap hit estimate at under $200k, one would need to start factoring in what would normally be nominal amounts like the $40K that would stick on the cap with Montoya in the minors, etc.

    Forget OEL….If you target Ryan Ellis. the cap space goes up to $4m in 2018-19. That is with Kostinen, Derek Ryan, Vanek and MPJ signed. You could afford to sign Nurse long term at $4.8 (or more) and still have 2-3 millionj in cap space. (see above)

  81. ArmchairGM says:

    Seen on another forum:

    In his 9-game regular season stint, Yamamoto posted these numbers:

    Individual
    10.45 shots/60 (1st on Oilers regular season roster – 100 minutes minimum)
    18.42 iCF/60 (1st)
    13.44 iFF/60 (1st)
    13.44 iSCF/60 (1st)
    7.47 iHDCF/60 (1st)
    1.00 Rush Attempts/60 (2nd)
    2.99 Rebounds Created/60 (1st)

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=S&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

    On-ice
    77.17 CF/60 (1st)
    51.28 CA/60 (2nd)
    60.08 CF% (1st)
    50.78 FF/60 (4th)
    33.36 FA/60 (2nd)
    60.36 FF% (2nd)
    37.84 SF/60 (1st)
    27.38 SA/60 (2nd)
    58.02 SF% (2nd)
    1.00 GF/60 (27th – finishing for him AND HIS LINE-MATES was the problem in the 9 games, nothing else)
    1.99 GA/60 (T-3rd)
    38.33 SCF/60 (1st)
    25.39 SCA/60 (2nd)
    60.16 SCF% (2nd)
    18.42 HDCF/60 (1st)
    8.46 HDCA/60 (3rd)
    68.52 HDCF% (2nd)
    0.50 HDGF/60 (27th – see finishing note above)
    0.50 HDGA/60 (2nd)
    50 HDGF% (T-9th)
    2.63 On Ice SH% (2nd – see finishing note above)
    92.73 On Ice SV% (7th)
    0.954 PDO (25th)

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=S&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

    *******************************************

    These numbers are eye-opening. Should we pencil Kailer into the middle-6 for 18-19? What do you guys think?

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    The real issue with the cap is bringing back all of Strome, Benning and Caggiula at higher salaries and one-way deals and keeping Kassian. That’s roughly $8M with LT’s Benning estimate beingway too low.

    One-way vs. Two-way deals means absolutely nothing to the cap – it only effects the salary (not cap hit) the player makes if assigned to the minors.

    Its irrelevant for our purposes.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Question: What is the date that OEL could sign a contract extention?Is a sign and trade possible?

    From section 50.5(f) of the CBA:

    A player can only sign an extension in the final year of their contract

    For players on a one-year contract, they need to wait until January 1

    He cannot sign a new contract until July 1.

    Talbot signed his new deal with the Oilers in January because his previous deal was a one-year deal.

  84. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    1) I don’t imagine that D. Ryan signs for under $2M, not when he put up close to 40 points and brings other assets than offence.

    2) So, Klef and the 10th for OEL (who either stays for one years and bolts or re-signs for double the cap-hit of Klef)

    Jim M. has been adamant that management desires OEL big-time – we know what happens when Chiarelli gets targeted on a player – Hall leaves, 4X4 plus NMC happens on June 23, an unproven goalie to compete for the back-up spot costs $2.5M. etc.

    Honest question. Do you think Matheson is connected in any way…….Because I dont. Not being nasty…he just never seems to be right about anything Oilers…..

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    – We don’t know what Mikko’s cap is by the way, only he’s being paid $2.5MM: what if cap is 2?

    His cap hit is $2.5M, end stop – there is no question.

  86. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: He cannot sign a new contract until July 1.

    Talbot signed his new deal with the Oilers in January because his previous deal was a one-year deal.

    Thank you. So any deal occuring at the draft would have to include some kind of ” Framework Understanding” as to a new contract……..which is not unheard of but still highly unlikely.

  87. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: His cap hit is $2.5M, end stop – there is no question.

    $2.5 AVV is correct

    At 6’7″ he ties Ben Bishop as the tallest goalie in NHL history.

    Good deal based on Analytics……DPI……
    .
    .
    .
    For those of you not up to speed on Analytics thats…Dollars Per Inch

  88. ArmchairGM says:

    Ryan: I was banging on the Faulk drum ages ago.

    Didn’t someone mention that Faulk has bulked up too much last summer? I recall reading comments that he was glacially slow last season after being told to muscle up.

    I can’t see a scenario where you can trade for one year of OEL with the Oilers cap structure that wouldn’t be incredibly foolish.

    For Faulk, you’d have to know if there’s any chance for a bounce back.

    I don’t mind taking a flyer on Faulk, but not if we’re talking about Klefbom going the other way. And, not if we expect him to be able to play 1RD. #RealisticExpectations

  89. Side says:

    ArmchairGM:

    These numbers are eye-opening. Should we pencil Kailer into the middle-6 for 18-19? What do you guys think?

    Interesting numbers. Definitely goes against the “he won’t perform in the NHL because he’s too small/didn’t earn the 9 games/development was ruined by these 9 games” narrative that has been crapped out on this forum a bunch.

    I would like to see how he does in training camp before penciling him in. But that’s because I’m hoping other players who should be stepping up do and do, or PC brings in some more proven wingers instead.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Yamamoto looked brilliant in preseason and his possession numbers were also strong through those nine games. He was getting fewer chances toward the end of the audition and it was time to send him out. I’d do the same thing this fall (wouldn’t have done it last fall), give him enough rope to prove/not prove himself. The worst that can happen is that the team has to trade someone during the year to make room. I kind of look at this coming season as Ty Rattie holding Yamamoto’s job until the young man is ready.

  91. Oilman99 says:

    Another overpay on Koskinen contract,to put us deeper into cap hell. These guys never learn,that is why this franchise is the laughing stock of the league. Now they will have to trade a useful player just to make room to overpay Nurse.

  92. leadfarmer says:

    anjinsan,

    Mcdavid changed everything. Including league salaries. Can’t compare pay preMcdavid to post Mcdavid. Guys this offseason are going to be signed to even more ridiculous cap hits.

  93. ArmchairGM says:

    Cassandra:
    To put it another way would you rather have:

    Carlson + Nylander or OEL.

    There is no contract value for Carlsson or OEL in which you would give up Nylander for the difference between them.

    If you are going to be giving out a big UFA contract anyway it makes no sense to give up a prime player on an RFA contract for the privilege.

    Also: handedness.

  94. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Seen on another forum:

    In his 9-game regular season stint, Yamamoto posted these numbers:

    Individual
    10.45 shots/60 (1st on Oilers regular season roster – 100 minutes minimum)
    18.42 iCF/60 (1st)
    13.44 iFF/60 (1st)
    13.44 iSCF/60 (1st)
    7.47 iHDCF/60 (1st)
    1.00 Rush Attempts/60 (2nd)
    2.99 Rebounds Created/60 (1st)

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=S&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

    On-ice
    77.17 CF/60 (1st)
    51.28 CA/60 (2nd)
    60.08 CF% (1st)
    50.78 FF/60 (4th)
    33.36 FA/60 (2nd)
    60.36 FF% (2nd)
    37.84 SF/60 (1st)
    27.38 SA/60 (2nd)
    58.02 SF% (2nd)
    1.00 GF/60 (27th – finishing for him AND HIS LINE-MATES was the problem in the 9 games, nothing else)
    1.99 GA/60 (T-3rd)
    38.33 SCF/60 (1st)
    25.39 SCA/60 (2nd)
    60.16 SCF% (2nd)
    18.42 HDCF/60 (1st)
    8.46 HDCA/60 (3rd)
    68.52 HDCF% (2nd)
    0.50 HDGF/60 (27th – see finishing note above)
    0.50 HDGA/60 (2nd)
    50 HDGF% (T-9th)
    2.63 On Ice SH% (2nd – see finishing note above)
    92.73 On Ice SV% (7th)
    0.954 PDO (25th)

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=S&loc=B&toi=100&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

    *******************************************

    These numbers are eye-opening. Should we pencil Kailer into the middle-6 for 18-19? What do you guys think?

    I think Oil already have him inked in to start the season.

    These are really positive numbers and although they are just numbers (no finish) it’s a breath of fresh air.

  95. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide:
    Yamamoto looked brilliant in preseason and his possession numbers were also strong through those nine games. He was getting fewer chances toward the end of the audition and it was time to send him out. I’d do the same thing this fall (wouldn’t have done it last fall), give him enough rope to prove/not prove himself. The worst that can happen is that the team has to trade someone during the year to make room. I kind of look at this coming season as Ty Rattie holding Yamamoto’s job until the young man is ready.

    The kid needs to get a lot stronger, and learn to play against men in the minors,or he will get killed by Christmas. His ability to compete in the corners is a big question mark.

  96. Cassandra says:

    Andy Dufresne: I get your point on UFA vs RFA and agree.

    My scenario would include a signed OEL hence why I asked earlier:

    “Question: What is the date that OEL could sign a contract extention? Is a sign and trade possible?

    From section 50.5(f) of the CBA:

    A player can only sign an extension in the final year of their contract

    For players on a one-year contract, they need to wait until January 1”
    .
    .

    Nylander was INVISIBLE in the playoffs. And the Leafs are DESPERATE for a Top Pair Dman.

    I think you grossly under-estimate the rarity of top pair dmen and their market value.

    My point was that a “signed” OEL has no more value than an unsigned one.

    The value of the signed OEL comes with the free market price attached.

    So if you are spending both money and assets on someone like OEL, the money pays for the signed years, the assets pay for the existing contract.

    So the “signed” part is irrelevant in any trade, and trading Nylander for one year of OEL is franchise crippling.

  97. digger50 says:

    Andy Dufresne: $2.5 AVV is correct

    At 6’7″he ties Ben Bishop as the tallest goalie in NHL history.

    Good deal based on Analytics……DPI……
    .
    .
    .
    For those of you not up to speed on Analytics thats…Dollars Per Inch

    I thought that was a metric for a whole different industry

  98. Oilman99 says:

    Andy Dufresne: $2.5 AVV is correct

    At 6’7″he ties Ben Bishop as the tallest goalie in NHL history.

    Good deal based on Analytics……DPI……
    .
    .
    .
    For those of you not up to speed on Analytics thats…Dollars Per Inch

    $2.5m for a guy who has never competed in the NHL,this makes no sense at all based on the the things that need fixing on this club.

  99. Andy Dufresne says:

    LOL Dirk Diggler says hi Digger

  100. bendelson says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) I don’t imagine that D. Ryan signs for under $2M, not when he put up close to 40 points and brings other assets than offence.

    His next deal should be in and around that number, with the term being a significant factor. He will be looking for a multi-year deal. No more one year contracts for Derek. Two years minimum, though I’m sure he will be looking for three…

    Start the conversation with the Letestu contract: $1.8 x 3, and see where that takes you…

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    My question is how long is training camp going to last next season? How many rookies get 9 games? How many experiments is the coach going to run before deciding the season is lost?

    This team needs it’s line up locked down and ready to go on opening night.

    Half of training camp will be in Europe – that might be helpful to require decision made early.

  102. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer:
    anjinsan,

    Mcdavid changed everything.Including league salaries.Can’t compare pay preMcdavid to post Mcdavid.Guys this offseason are going to be signed to even more ridiculous cap hits.

    People keep saying this but Pastrnak signed after McDavid.

    There is no reason for a general manager to accept that McDavid changed everything. The cap is fixed. If one player gets more then another gets less, there is no reason to do anything that adjust for inflation.

    If I am negotiating with Nylander and Marner their track records are worse than Pastrnak. End of story.

    Mathews’ comparable is Tasarenko, not McDavid.

    If they sign an offer sheet that is higher than that then the baseline is established and I consider it then and only then.

    But you would have to be crazy to offer a player 10 + million dollars + four or five first round draft picks. The Oilers are screwed now. Imagine if they didn’t have this first round pick plus the next three?

    Just because Buffalo gave Eichel 10 million is no reason to follow suit yourself.

  103. Andy Dufresne says:

    Cassandra: Good lord, why on earth would Toronto trade Nylander and a first round pick for OEL.

    Nylander alone is a dramatic overpayment.

    Ok. If you say so. Because I thought your point was that “Nylander alone is a dramatic overpayment” for a signed OEL

    Which lead me to state that “I think you grossly under-estimate the rarity of top pair dmen and their market value.”

  104. Yeti says:

    Oilman99: $2.5m for a guy who has never competed in the NHL,this makes no sense at all based on the the things that need fixing on this club.

    Remember: you’re paying at least a $0.5m premium for the Finn-factor. With Pakarinen gone, we desperately needed at least one more Finn on the roster to avoid certain doom. It’s not possible to rely on Kotkaniemi being still available @10 in the draft, so immediate corrective action was needed. I applaud Chiarelli’s work. A team without Finn-factor is no team at all.

  105. Cassandra says:

    I love how when people are trying to be “balanced” and “reasonable” about Chiarelli they always bring up the good moves.

    Trading for Talbot.
    Trading for Kassian
    Signing Klefbom.

    Well if trading for Talbot was so good then why did the Oilers just spend 2.5 M on a backup because of worries about goaltending.

    If trading for Kassian was so good why was signing him so bad?

    I happen to think signing Klefbom was good, but what good does that do if he is traded?

    Three years in and even his good moves are question marks.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: Thank you.So any deal occuring at the draft would have to include some kind of ” Framework Understanding” as to a new contract……..which is not unheard of but still highly unlikely.

    A main issue with a deal with the #10 for OEL is that a new contract cannot be signed by the draft so any acquisition would have immense risk of only having OEL for one year.

    Yes, the Coyotes could give us permission to talk to OEL (and his people) and discuss a “framework” but nothing can be made official and there would be huge risk in the transaction.

    That risk combined with the new contract (if/when signed) being >$8M (I would think) makes this type of transaction very scary for me.

    Love the player but the circumstances don’t work.

  107. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: Half of training camp will be in Europe – that might be helpful to require decision made early.

    Would be hilarious (not really) if you traveled all that way only to find out its a split squad game.

  108. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: A main issue with a deal with the #10 for OEL is that a new contract cannot be signed by the draft so any acquisition would have immense risk of only having OEL for one year.

    Yes, the Coyotes could give us permission to talk to OEL (and his people) and discuss a “framework” but nothing can be made official and there would be huge risk in the transaction.

    That risk combined with the new contract (if/when signed) being >$8M (I would think) makes this type of transaction very scary for me.

    Love the player but the circumstances don’t work.

    Agreed.

  109. Cassandra says:

    Andy Dufresne: Ok. If you say so. Because I thought your point was that “Nylander alone is a dramatic overpayment” for a signed OEL

    Which would lead me to state that “I think you grossly under-estimate the rarity of top pair dmen and their market value.”

    I will try again. It doesn’t matter what OEL’s market value is. What matters is the difference between his market value and what I pay.

    If OEL’s market value is 10 million a year and I pay 10 million a year, that is fine (provided what I need is OEL).

    However if OEL’s market value is 10 milliion a year and I pay 10 million a year + William Nylander then I have overpaid by 1 William Nylander.

    The only way trading for OEL works at all is if his market value is 8 million a year and his real value is 12 million a year (numbers as illustration only).

    So his market value is actually irrelevant to this example. The only way trading for OEL makes any sense is if their real value greatly exceeds their market value.

    A

  110. Woogie63 says:

    Every team in the league knows what the cap is going to be for the next three years.

    The fact that the Oiler’s signed a back-up goalie for $2.5M and JT is not signed (announced) are good clues that cap is closer to $82M.

  111. Andy Dufresne says:

    Cassandra: I will try again.It doesn’t matter what OEL’s market value is.What matters is the difference between his market value and what I pay.

    If OEL’s market value is 10 million a year and I pay 10 million a year, that is fine (provided what I need is OEL).

    However if OEL’s market value is 10 milliion a year and I pay 10 million a year + William Nylander then I have overpaid by 1 William Nylander.

    The only way trading for OEL works at all is if his market value is 8 million a year and his real value is 12 million a year (numbers as illustration only).

    So his market value is actually irrelevant to this example.The only way trading for OEL makes any sense is if their real value greatly exceeds their market value.

    A

    By your logic……if i traded Sekera for PK Subban whose market value is $9m….I would loose that trade because I have to pay Subban the $9m (his full market value) and so I would be givng Sekera away for nothing.

    Light bulb moment for me….I finally understand why youre constantly complaining that Chiarelli is an idiot

  112. Oilers8833 says:

    Cassandra,

    Cassandra:
    I love how when people are trying to be “balanced” and “reasonable” about Chiarelli they always bring up the good moves.

    Trading for Talbot.
    Trading for Kassian
    Signing Klefbom.

    Well if trading for Talbot was so good then why did the Oilers just spend 2.5 M on a backup because of worries about goaltending.

    If trading for Kassian was so good why was signing him so bad?

    I happen to think signing Klefbom was good, but what good does that do if he is traded?

    Three years in and even his good moves are question marks.

    Hey I’m on the fire Chia into the sun bus, but your throwing a guy under the bus for moves he hasn’t even done yet (trading Klefbom).

    As for the trades:

    1) Yes Talbot had a bad year this year, but overall he has been pretty good, you can blame Chia for not providing a good backup and playing Talbot into the ground, but you can’t knock him for trade value

    2)The Kassian trade was good…..the signing after was shit

    3)The contract for Klefbom was good……Chia hasn’t traded him….yet….but I won’t bash him until when/if that move is made.

    The issue I have is you have made it very apparent of your HATE for Chia…..and that is valid, but the way you come across as compared to a poster like Woodguy or any of the other posters that approach it with more fact (ie numbers) and less emotion, rubs a lot of posters the wrong way.

    Just food for thought.

  113. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Agreed.

    Question for you.If one of the top group Ryan Ellis for example were available but it would cost something like Klefbom and the 10th. Is this something you would consider?

    Is there a trade scenario you would consider? Klefbom and what?

    I wouldn’t trade Klefbom for Ellis. Larsson, Nurse, and Klefbom are my keepers on the blue. I see no reason to trade any of them.

    Ellis has one year left on his contract, and then one is going to have to pay him 50-100% more than Klefbom. He is NOT that much better. And one is going to have to pay Ellis, a small D, a contract that extends well into his thirties.

    I have Klefbom cost-controlled through his prime.

    The problem with the Oilers D is mainly coaching.

  114. godot10 says:

    Alpine: I’ve read as much from WG. I don’t want Faulk either.

    I’d be fine with Faulk as long as he doesn’t cost Klefbom or Nugent-Hopkins or the #10OV or Benning. If we can get him as a salary dump from Carolina for nothing of real value, I’d be fine with that.

  115. Oilers8833 says:

    Cassandra: People keep saying this but Pastrnak signed after McDavid.

    There is no reason for a general manager to accept that McDavid changed everything.The cap is fixed.If one player gets more then another gets less, there is no reason to do anything that adjust for inflation.

    If I am negotiating with Nylander and Marner their track records are worse than Pastrnak.End of story.

    Mathews’ comparable is Tasarenko, not McDavid.

    If they sign an offer sheetthat is higher than that then the baseline is established and I consider it then and only then.

    But you would have to be crazy to offer a player 10 + million dollars + four or five first round draft picks.The Oilers are screwed now.Imagine if they didn’t have this first round pick plus the next three?

    Just because Buffalo gave Eichel 10 million is no reason to follow suit yourself.

    Drai was an overpay by 500k to 1mill, you could definitely argue that by the comps. But I think McDavid and unfortunately Draisaitl will be the comps for Matthews, Tavares, Laine etc going forward.

    I would argue Matthews is better than Drai right now, so the starting number for him is 8.5 and when you factor the Eichel contract, those are going to be the comparables going forward. Also look at a contract like Johansen in Nashville….he had 58 points (15 goals) and is making 8 mill. Do you think Laine or Matthews is going to make 7.5 mil on his next contract…..very doubtful. Most if not all of Matthews, Laine, Tavares, Eichel (already), Seguin, Hall (when his contract renews and he wins the Hart) are going to be around that 10 mil or more mark.

    When you go to sign Marner and Nylander, they are going to play the Drai card and say why would we take 6 mill a year when your paying Matthews 10 mil…..are we 40% less of a player than Matthews is??

  116. treevojo says:

    godot10: Larsson, Nurse, and Klefbom are my keepers on the blue.I see no reason to trade any of them.

    Agreed.

    They should be the backbone of this team for most if not all of Mcdavids contract.

  117. Confused says:

    After being told repated Bernier was the correct type of answer Colorado sign Francouz! LOL

  118. Side says:

    Gotta love when Cassandra tells people to “keep up” when referencing his own made up rules, personal philosophies and mental gymnastics.

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: I wouldn’t trade Klefbom for Ellis.Larsson, Nurse, and Klefbom are my keepers on the blue.I see no reason to trade any of them.

    Ellis has one year left on his contract, and then one is going to have to pay him 50-100% more than Klefbom.He is NOT that much better. And one is going to have to pay Ellis, a small D, a contract that extends well into his thirties.

    I have Klefbom cost-controlled through his prime.

    The problem with the Oilers D is mainly coaching.

    We don’t really have any room to move on defense this summer anyhow. The two guys we wouldn’t mind moving have NMC’s until next summer. So I agree with LT that we don’t make any major changes this summer… all these guys we’re discussing – Karlsson, Doughty, Ellis, Ekman-Larsson, Faulk – will be available next summer for just cash, no asset outlay required. Also potentially available next summer :

    Myers
    Chara
    McDonagh
    Stralman
    Schmidt

    … to name just a few.

  120. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra, you are being abusive. Please stop.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    Would you like to put a woodguy on it? Matthews signs for 8 mil or less I owe you a woodguy. He signs for more you owe me a woodguy.

  122. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: His cap hit is $2.5M, end stop – there is no question.

    – I see sportstrac now has this as well.

    – plus if he sh!ts the bed they can both sides just terminate.

    – don’t see the fuss in this signing. Good gamble easy to erase.

    – none of the few decent ufa goalies are going to be cheaper and you just don’t know.

    – get a backup goeler or die trying.

  123. bendelson says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    Would you like to put a woodguy on it?Matthews signs for 8 mil or less I owe you a woodguy.He signs for more you owe me a woodguy.

    What’s a woodguy going for these days?

  124. leadfarmer says:

    bendelson: What’s a woodguy going for these days?

    I think v2.0 woodguy became 80-100 dollar bottle of liquor of choice

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I see sportstrac now has this as well.

    – plus if he sh!ts the bed they can both sides just terminate.

    – don’t see the fuss in this signing.Good gamble easy to erase.

    – none of the few decent ufa goalies are going to be cheaper and you just don’t know.

    – get a backup goeler or die trying.

    The fuss is because there is no guarantee or assurance that he’s a marked improvement over Montoya and he comes at a considerable cap hit at a time when the team has next to zero cap space to improve.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Why does Koskinen cost 4X what Francouz just signed for – under $700K?

  127. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The issue is who else will be available? Raanta was never coming here and now he has a contract. Khudobin? Seems like he will be sought after. Grubauer was my choice but you have to give up assets to get him and I guess he will get a shot as a starter for a team like Buffalo. It’s definitely not the worst bet Chia has made

  128. Confused says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Where are you getting a reliable number from?

  129. Lowetide says:

    The issue is that the Oilers have very little money and spent $2.5 million on an unproven backup goalie. The money invested means the club’s biggest move of summer, which I assume to be a puck mover, cannot be fulfilled without sending out a substantial contract (probably Oscar).

    The goalie is the goalie. The money is sunk. That’s a big deal.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Confused:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Where are you getting a reliable number from?

    Adrian Dater

    Verified account

    @adater
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    Pavel Francouz’s new contract with Avs is one year, $690,000, one-way deal @BSNDenver @BSNAvalanche

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    The issue is that the Oilers have very little money and spent $2.5 million on an unproven backup goalie. The money invested means the club’s biggest move of summer, which I assume to be a puck mover, cannot be fulfilled without sending out a substantial contract (probably Oscar).

    The goalie is the goalie. The money is sunk. That’s a big deal.

    What about a buyout of Russell as oppossed to trading Klefbom (I know a Sekera buyout is also an option but he is a very valuable player on the assumption of even close to 100% health)?

    Of course, a Klefbom trade could also bring back high value – the key word there is “could”.

    ——————————

    The one scenario here that I think could work out very well (although is also a fantasy) is a trade of Klefbom for great young value – for example, Islanders first round pick (their won) plus A. Beauvillier (and Ho Sang maybe – probably an “or” not an “and”) and then sign John Carlsson.

    Of course, neither of those moves will happen and, with the Koskinen signing, I don’t know if we could afford the extra $3.5M or so that Carlsson will cost over Klef.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The issue is who else will be available?Raanta was never coming here and now he has a contract.Khudobin?Seems like he will be sought after.Grubauer was my choice but you have to give up assets to get him and I guess he will get a shot as a starter for a team like Buffalo.It’s definitely not the worst bet Chia has made

    If noone is available that isn’t an extreme overpay then there is the option to stick with Montoya. Also, its May 2, I don’t think our manager needed to commit $2.5M on an unproven 30 year old tender from the K to compete with Montoya.

    More to the point, no matter who might be available for the Oilers, I’m stil not sure how Koskinen is able to get a contract 4X as much as Francouz – was he even the more coveted player?

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: I think v2.0 woodguy became 80-100 dollar bottle of liquor of choice

    When DSF and I were betting a Woodguy was $100 but I like the v2.0 version better.

  134. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra: Byfuglien is elite.

    He’s a game breaker for sure. For me he’s a top player but not as consistent as the best. When he’s on he’s a beast.

  135. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That’s a crazy contract. I don’t get that discrepancy but I don’t watch KHL. Don’t get how his agent couldn’t get a mil at least from the avs. I like our contract better though. It may just be the nail in the coffin of Chia. He can join Milbury analyzing trades on tv

  136. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    How many of those trades did you end up winning. I remember there were some good ones in there

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Faulk

    In large samples goals are still very telling.

    We can’t use them in small samples (under a season really) because of the huge variance in the number, but cobble together a few seasons and you can get pointed in the right direction.

    Relative Team mate GF% and CF% (RelTGF% & RelTCF%) are the aggregate of a player’s WOWY.

    When you read “does he make his team mates better/worse” WOWY is want you want to look at, and if you are looking at goals, makes sure you’re looking at multiple seasons.

    Even then, you still need a ton of context. Does the player play 1st/2nd or 3rd pair? 3rd pairing guys tend to do well in RelTGF% because they see easier comp and the better players will score more.

    Who is the player playing vs the toughs with? Playing the toughs with McDavid is a bit easier than with Dave Bolland.

    How good is the team he’s on? Players on good teams tend to have small Rels because relative to thier good team mates, they’re not that much better/worse.

    Good players on bad teams tend to get a boost, but it does help you identify good players on bad
    teams.

    All that being said, here are Faulk’s last 4 Season of Relative Team mate GF% and CF%:

    Season RelT GF%
    2014-2015 -2.35
    2015-2016 -5.18
    2016-2017 -5.57
    2017-2018 -3.88

    He played 1st pair in 14/15 and 15/16, and 2nd pair in 16/17 and 17/18.

    If we break it down by Goals For/Against we see:

    For
    Season RelT GF/60
    2014-2015 0.45
    2015-2016 0.10
    2016-2017 -0.31
    2017-2018 -0.08

    4 years ago the offense spiked when he was on the ice, less so the next, a horrible year 2 years ago and treaded water this year. Its interesting to note that his reputation was pretty high 3-4 years ago.

    Against
    Season RelT GA/60
    2014-2015 0.73
    2015-2016 0.68
    2016-2017 0.22
    2017-2018 0.34

    Those are some big numbers the wrong way. You can see the drop in Rel GA when he went from 1st to 2nd pair, but its still way on the wrong side of the ledger. Saloon door type numbers.

    The equation for evaluating any player (besides a goalie) is what they create minus what they give up.

    Judging Dmen by points is not smart.

    Some of the worst defenders get a lot of points and give up more than they create.

    Some create enough to make up for what they give up, but most don’t and Faulk is one of the worst offenders.

    Imo.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    How many of those trades did you end up winning.I remember there were some good ones in there

    I won 3 of 4 bets and one is where I got 2-1 so DSF owed me 4 Woodguys.

    He donated it to woman’s shelter near his home on the island and I considered us square.

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Why does Koskinen cost 4X what Francouz just signed for – under $700K?

    Peter Chiarelli, an agent ‘s best friend. Enemy of dynasty loving fans of the Oilers.

  140. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Oh ok. For some reason I remembered it being bottles of Talisker. I think the women’s shelter probably liked the money better, unless in true DSF fashion he moved the goalposts again and did in fact give them Talisker

  141. RonnieB says:

    Is the Koskinen contract considered an ELC ? If so, his contract could have been structured as part salary/part performance bonuses.
    Either way, it looks like a typical PC panic overpay. Double what he was making in the KHL !

  142. leadfarmer says:

    RonnieB,

    He’s 29 yo. No. Not a elc

  143. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy do you have current favs for a RD addition? I think a lower cost effective sort of sleeper like Stralman was is choice.

    Build up the D depth and move some for forwards, might get more value for that way.

  144. Biggus Dickus says:

    I hope Katz is asking about this backup goalie contract. It really does strike me as stupid.

  145. RonnieB says:

    leadfarmer,

    Ok thanks. I didn’t know ( or forgot ) there was an age limit.

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    Is the Koskinen contract considered an ELC ? If so, his contract could have been structured as part salary/part performance bonuses.
    Either way, it looks like a typical PC panic overpay. Double what he was making in the KHL !

    No, its his second NHL contract so no performance bonuses – its structured as $2M salary and $500K signing bonus.

  147. Jethro Tull says:

    Biggus Dickus,

    Do you wank as high as any in Wome?

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Adrian Dater

    Verified account

    @adater1h1 hour ago
    More
    Pavel Francouz’s new contract with Avs is one year, $690,000, one-way deal @BSNDenver @BSNAvalanche

    Francouz’s SV% in KHL last 3 years: .946, .953, .924 – Sakic gives him $690K

    Koskinen’s SV% in KHL last 3 years: .931, .915, .916 – Chiarelli gives him $2.5MM

    Agents must have a bullhorn sound effect and flashing red lights on their phone when Peter calls.

    Man.

    I tweeted the above, then Gregor chimed in:

    Francouz is 5’11…so it must be you get an extra $300,000 per inch. 🙂

    Ha!

    Overpay Pete.

  149. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Faulk

    In large samples goals are still very telling.

    We can’t use them in small samples (under a season really) because of the huge variance in the number, but cobble together a few seasons and you can get pointed in the right direction.

    Relative Team mate GF% and CF% (RelTGF% & RelTCF%) are the aggregate of a player’s WOWY.

    When you read “does he make his team mates better/worse” WOWY is want you want to look at, and if you are looking at goals, makes sure you’re looking at multiple seasons.

    Even then, you still need a ton of context.Does the player play 1st/2nd or 3rd pair?3rd pairing guys tend to do well in RelTGF% because they see easier comp and the better players will score more.

    Who is the player playing vs the toughs with?Playing the toughs with McDavid is a bit easier than with Dave Bolland.

    How good is the team he’s on?Players on good teams tend to have small Rels because relative to thier good team mates, they’re not that much better/worse.

    Good players on bad teams tend to get a boost, but it does help you identify good players on bad
    teams.

    All that being said, here are Faulk’s last 4 Season of Relative Team mate GF% and CF%:

    SeasonRelT GF%
    2014-2015-2.35
    2015-2016-5.18
    2016-2017-5.57
    2017-2018-3.88

    He played 1st pair in 14/15 and 15/16, and 2nd pair in 16/17 and 17/18.

    If we break it down by Goals For/Against we see:

    For
    SeasonRelT GF/60
    2014-20150.45
    2015-20160.10
    2016-2017-0.31
    2017-2018-0.08

    4 years ago the offense spiked when he was on the ice, less so the next, a horrible year 2 years ago and treaded water this year. Its interesting to note that his reputation was pretty high 3-4 years ago.

    Against
    SeasonRelT GA/60
    2014-20150.73
    2015-20160.68
    2016-20170.22
    2017-20180.34

    Those are some big numbers the wrong way.You can see the drop in Rel GA when he went from 1st to 2nd pair, but its still way on the wrong side of the ledger.Saloon door type numbers.

    The equation for evaluating any player (besides a goalie) is what they create minus what they give up.

    Judging Dmen by points is not smart.

    Some of the worst defenders get a lot of points and give up more than they create.

    Some create enough to make up for what they give up, but most don’t and Faulk is one of the worst offenders.

    Imo.

    Does this not prove Faulk would be a poor acquisition? Run away PC

  150. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Woodguy do you have currentfavs for a RD addition? I think a lower cost effective sort of sleeper like Stralman was is choice.

    Build up the D depth and move some for forwards, might get more value for that way.

    I wrote this on LT”s blog the other day: https://lowetide.ca/2018/04/21/strawberry-moon/#comment-737269

    Vis a vis price to acquire and quality of the player I think Tanev should be a hard target.

  151. Richard S.S. says:

    To most people, unproven means not any good. If employers had the same opinion, most of the people on this site would never even have been hired. If experience triumphed all, no one looking for his first job would ever get hired.

  152. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Oh ok.For some reason I remembered it being bottles of Talisker.I think the women’s shelter probably liked the money better, unless in true DSF fashion he moved the goalposts again and did in fact give them Talisker

    Ha!

    No he showed his donation receipt.

  153. sliderule says:

    The knives are out for Chiarelli

    I hear some MSM like matty can’t stand him and most of staff same.

    Then I hear Katz can’t stand him

    I would say that his time in Edmonton is just about over

    The news is really depressing to me as it either means that we hired an incompetent or he is working in a hornets nest.

    Even worse maybe it’s both

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    leadfarmer,

    Ok thanks. I didn’t know ( or forgot ) there was an age limit.

    Actually, I think Francouz might be subject to ELC limits for 1 year.

    Generally a player 25 or over when they sign their first contract are not subject to ELC restrictions, however:

    Notwithstanding the chart set forth in (b) above, a Player who at the time he was
    drafted was playing for a team outside North America or who meets the qualifications set forth in
    Article 8.4(a)(v) (a “European Player”) who signs his first SPC at ages 25-27 shall be subject to
    the Entry Level System for one (1) year. A European Player who signs his first SPC at age 28 or
    older is not subject to the Entry Level System under any circumstances

    He fits in to Section 8.4(a)(v) (set out below) and is 27:

    “a Player age 22 or older who has not been selected in a previous Entry
    Draft and shall be eligible to enter the League as an Unrestricted Free
    Agent pursuant to Article 10.1(d). ”

    ——————————————————–

    With all that said, even though Francouz is subject to the ELC limits, he didn’t even get the max ELC salary (almost $300K less) whereas Koskinen got $2.5M.

    I still don’t get how that is the case.

  155. Biggus Dickus says:

    Richard S.S.:
    To most people, unproven means not any good.If employers had the same opinion, most of the people on this site would never even have been hired.If experience triumphed all, no one looking for his first job would ever get hired.

    There’s a difference between giving a guy a chance and giving your college grad CEO money.

  156. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I wrote this on LT”s blog the other day: https://lowetide.ca/2018/04/21/strawberry-moon/#comment-737269

    Vis a vis price to acquire and quality of the player I think Tanev should be a hard target.

    Cheers, Tanev would be a nice add at a reasonable cost. So forget it for Pete’s sake. Badoom boom chhhh.

  157. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    sliderule:
    The knives are out forChiarelli

    I hear some MSM like matty can’t stand him and most of staff same.

    Then I hear Katz can’t stand him

    I would say that his time in Edmonton is just about over

    The news is really depressing to me as it either means that we hired an incompetent or he is working in a hornets nest.

    Even worse maybe it’s both

    So why did Nicholson tell us all that he’s their guy?

  158. Dustylegnd says:

    anjinsan,

    We can live with Leon at 8.5/year especially 3 years form now, what we can’t live with is Lucic at 6 x 7 and 1.8 for Kassian playing like a 650/year player

  159. Biggus Dickus says:

    Dustylegnd:
    anjinsan,

    We can live with Leon at 8.5/year especially 3 years form now, what we can’t live with is Lucic at 6 x 7 and 1.8 for Kassian playing like a 650/year player

    No, the problem is the systemic overpayment of players. You could eat one mistake, you cannot compensate for the amalgamation of stupid.

  160. Dustylegnd says:

    sliderule,

    And that is why going forward it will be extremely difficult to attract rising star hockey ops staff or anyone with a proven track record…..The Oilers executive suite is an absolute shit show……slightly more attractive than Carolina

  161. Biggus Dickus says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Biggus Dickus,

    Do you wank as high as any in Wome?

    Strike him centurion, very roughly.

  162. Richard S.S. says:

    The rules say no contact with the Goaltender. If the NHL fined everyone for any contact with a Goalie, say $250 K, they’d earn $100’s of Millions every year. Smurphs need not apply for any Goalie job.

  163. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ha!

    No he showed his donation receipt.

    Not entirely true….I showed you the Pay Pal transaction since you were going off on me. I didn’t receive. a receipt for several months afterward.

  164. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Dustylegnd:
    anjinsan,

    We can live with Leon at 8.5/year especially 3 years form now, what we can’t live with is Lucic at 6 x 7 and 1.8 for Kassian playing like a 650/year player

    Perfect

  165. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: So why did Nicholson tell us all that he’s their guy?

    Shpin.

  166. rickithebear says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Alpine,

    I think Woodguy can provide you with a lot of analysis about why we want absolutely nothing to do with Faulk

    Math mechanism generated by concept is analytics.

    Database is a calculator of math.
    That does not exist without borrowing the analytics.

    Some databases (calculators) are built poorly!
    Which shows an incorrect understanding of the analytics.

    When it comes to HD system theory.
    I have yet to see one correct database. ( calculator)

  167. leadfarmer says:

    https://www.nhl.com/news/c-298365030

    Something Something Oilers have no good prospects. Something something complete

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Biggus Dickus: No, the problem is the systemic overpayment of players. You could eat one mistake, you cannot compensate for the amalgamation of stupid.

    Peter spins around the room with a razors in his hands and then complains about “death by 1000 cuts”

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Not entirely true….I showed you the Pay Pal transaction since you were going off on me. I didn’t receive. a receipt for several months afterward.

    That was close enough.

    I wasn’t going off.

    I just asked for proof of payment, same as was asked of me (not by you) when in a similar position.

    SOP.

  170. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear: Math mechanism generated by concept is analytics.

    Database is a calculator of math.
    That does not exist without borrowing the analytics.

    Some databases are built poorly!
    Which shows an incorrect understanding of the analytics.

    When it comes to HD system theory.
    I have yet to see one vorrect database.

    Absolutely agree. But I don’t have the time or ability to create a database that calculates every players shots from all different locations and situations and for all the different players on the ice and create averages for them in that situation and translate their inverse to goalies for their save ability. So unfortunately I either have to watch each teams 82 games a year or I have to use others work that is available. Sure it’s not perfect but it’s better than I can do

  171. rickithebear says:

    Dustylegnd:
    anjinsan,

    We can live with Leon at 8.5/year especially 3 years form now, what we can’t live with is Lucic at 6 x 7 and 1.8 for Kassian playing like a 650/year player

    2 sets of chemo today.
    I am in a pissy mood.

    If you are going to pay 3-4 million for Goal diff affect on PP.
    Then that same goal dif affect on PK is 3-4m.

    You might want to rethink what Kassian the PK forward is worth.

  172. Confused says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    So a tweet reposted as a HFBOARD rumour is reliable?

  173. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer: Absolutely agree.But I don’t have the time or ability to create a database that calculates every players shots from all different locations and situations and for all the different players on the ice and create averages for them in that situation and translate their inverse to goalies for their save ability.So unfortunately I either have to watch each teams 82 games a year or I have to use others work that is available.Sure it’s not perfect but it’s better than I can do

    The desire of a GM is to get upper level performance against difficult players for reasonable cap hit.
    You have to diffretentiate to 512 situations to get the outlying STD dev.
    Cause almost all the databases I look at fail to identify the Emperical advantage players.

    Talbot Top 10 Open shot save% = Top 10 at stopping the only shots that need saving.

    Elite 0% Corsi Dmen. = lowest % of corsi that need to be saved. Lowest save demand for goalies.

    Failing to understand what makes winning easier is inexcusable.

  174. Scungilli Slushy says:

    rickithebear: 2 sets of chemo today.
    I am in a pissy mood.

    If you are going to pay 3-4 million for Goal diff affect on PP.
    Then that same goal dif affect on PK is 3-4m.

    You might want to rethink what Kassian the PK forward is worth.

    My thoughts are with you, not that they can help necessarily but I think a lot here or everyone is concerned about your wellbeing

    Kassian has an issue with a lot of consistency and a salary that is beyond really his contribution.

    Love his story PC paid him off the team.

    He needs to ask the lesser players to choose money or team, a fair question. And a necessary one.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    Confused:
    OriginalPouzar,

    So a tweet reposted as a HFBOARD rumour is reliable?

    Adrian Dater – Yes, I consider him very reliable for all things Avalanche.

    He is a legit source.

  176. flyfish1168 says:

    I have very little faith in PC. After reading this article from Copper & Blue I have even less. This guy was FIRED for not being able to control the CAP properly in Boston. He must be $tupid getting a 2nd chance as a GM and still be making the same mistake AGAIN. Part of this blame has to go to Nicholson too. Everyone knew why PC was fired. Did Nicholson not ask during the interview process how he would handle the CAP this time around or does he need help in this area. How PC handles negotiating with Nurse will be interesting.

    https://www.coppernblue.com/2018/5/2/17313224/peter-chiarelli-does-not-have-a-fundamental-grasp-on-the-salary-cap-mikko-koskinen-pavel-francouz

  177. Dustylegnd says:

    rickithebear,

    Not sure if I am understanding you correctly, but I believe Edmonton had the 25th best PK%

    Are you saying that you have been able to identify Kassian as a top top penalty Killer in the league and it was the other 4-8 PK players contributing to PK mediocrity?

    I am curious what you are actually saying about Kassian and his relative value as a hockey player

  178. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I wrote this on LT”s blog the other day: https://lowetide.ca/2018/04/21/strawberry-moon/#comment-737269

    Vis a vis price to acquire and quality of the player I think Tanev should be a hard target.

    Injuries are a concern.

  179. --hudson-- says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Why does Koskinen cost 4X what Francouz just signed for – under $700K?

    Francouz must be one of those lazy Czechs that are always first off the ice after practice.

  180. Fuhr and Lowething. says:

    Biggus Dickus: “you cannot compensate for the amalgamation of stupid.

    This is just perfection. Stealing this. Lots.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    Confused:
    OriginalPouzar,

    No.

    Yes, when Adrian Dater advises on the terms of a contract with the Avs, that a pretty solid source of info.

  182. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: I think you definitely want OEL ahead of Faulk. Don’t think I would trade Klefbom and 10OV for him though. But I could see the Oilers doing it. It kind of makes sense for both teams.
    Arizona won’t be competitive for a few years and itlets them add an impact dman and another quality forward with two top 10 picks. Oilers get that stud dman everyone says they need.
    The thing is, if Klefbom is healthy he might develop into 80 to 90 percent of OEL, at half the cost. This assumes you extend OEL at 8 million per year. I think retaining Klefbom at 4 million has more value in a cap world.

    Arizona is competitive now. I really doubt they trade him and it doesn’t sound like he wants to leave now.

  183. flyfish1168 says:

    Confused:
    flyfish1168,

    So Willis retweets Datar rumour, no facts! Trolls everywhere.

    https://www.denverpost.com/2018/05/02/pavel-francouz-colorado-avalanche-goaltender/

    https://www.tsn.ca/avs-sign-goalie-from-czech-republic-to-one-year-deal-1.1074489

    Are you saying Willis tweet is just a rumour and unsubstantiated?? I would find that difficult to believe since he is well respected and writes for MSM news. His Reputation is important and he would not jeopardize it without a reliable source.

  184. --hudson-- says:

    Confused:
    OriginalPouzar,

    So why is capfriendly not updated?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Avalanche/status/991771469985271809?s=19

    Pretty certain it’s happening when the NHL club is tweeting it

  185. Confused says:

    Yes, it is happening.

    But show me a real source of the contract number!

  186. flyfish1168 says:

    Confused:
    Yes, it is happening.

    But show me a real source of the contract number!

    I believe what is really happening is PC does not understand CAP control or how to negotiate contracts. PC negotiated contracts – they’re real and they’re spectacular ($hitty)

  187. Lowetide says:

    Confused:
    Yes, it is happening.

    But show me a real source of the contract number!

    Adrian Dater.. He covers the Avalanche

    Adrian Dater
    @adater
    ·
    5h
    Pavel Francouz’s new contract with Avs is one year, $690,000, one-way deal @BSNDenver @BSNAvalanche

  188. Lowetide says:

    Confused, you’re buggering up the blog. Please stop.

  189. Rondo says:

    Lowetide:
    Confused, you’re buggering up the blog. Please stop.

    May

    Lowetide:
    Confused, you’re buggering up the blog. Please stop.

    Maybe a little music will help.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gc4QTqslN4

  190. digger50 says:

    flyfish1168:
    I have very little faith in PC.After reading this article from Copper & Blue I have even less. This guy was FIRED for not being able to control the CAP properly in Boston. He must be $tupid getting a 2nd chance as a GM and still be making the same mistake AGAIN. Part of this blame has to go to Nicholson too. Everyone knew why PC was fired. Did Nicholson not ask during the interview process how he would handle the CAP this time around or does he need help in this area. How PC handles negotiating with Nurse will be interesting.

    https://www.coppernblue.com/2018/5/2/17313224/peter-chiarelli-does-not-have-a-fundamental-grasp-on-the-salary-cap-mikko-koskinen-pavel-francouz

    Well of course Bob asked Peter how he would manage the cap during his interview.

    And Peter replied “don’t worry Bob, I have a plan”

  191. digger50 says:

    Actually I do believe Peter does have a plan. A high level very strategic plan that just wows Bob. I also believe it’s a decent plan, nothing really new, but a sound, logical , strategic plan on building a hockey club at all levels. It’s even hard for Katz to argue against “the plan” as it is written.

    So the problem is not strategy, it’s tactical. Peter is a thinker but does not have the execution skills to meet the plan.

    Edit: I should say that Peter has some skills, and can guide a draft, farm team, ops etc. He has some hockey inderstandingbfor sure.

    But in the details of GMing and NHL club. The details of talent assessment, contracts and trades he comes up lacking. Best thing he could do is defer these roles to someone, or count on a strong advisor. Please.

    If Koskinen turns into a real goalie – wow. And we should remember this moment. But dam so many times the board has been correct in assessment… and Peter not so much.

  192. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra: My point was that a “signed” OEL has no more value than an unsigned one.

    The value of the signed OEL comes with the free market price attached.

    So if you are spending both money and assets on someone like OEL, the money pays for the signed years, the assets pay for the existing contract.

    So the “signed” part is irrelevant in any trade, and trading Nylander for one year of OEL is franchise crippling.

    If someone trades a player like Nylander for OEL, are they not trading for the one year of signed playing time and the opportunity to negotiate a new contract before he hits the open market? As well as the chance to sign him for eight rather than seven years?

  193. JimmyV1965 says:

    bendelson: His next deal should be in and around that number, with the term being a significant factor.He will be looking for a multi-year deal.No more one year contracts for Derek.Two years minimum, though I’m sure he will be looking for three…

    Start the conversation with the Letestu contract:$1.8 x 3, and see where that takes you…

    Isn’t the real value in Derek Ryan the fact you can sign him for slightly above league avg for one year? Once you move into multi-year deals his value evaporates. I would not expect him to score 15 goals and 40 pts next year.

  194. hunter1909 says:

    digger50: But in the details of GMing and NHL club. The details of talent assessment, contracts and trades he comes up lacking. Best thing he could do is defer these roles to someone, or count on a strong advisor. Please.

    Basically if your statement holds true, the team has a leader unfit for his job. The kind of “leader” that, if he had been placed with 30 other NHL Gm’s will constantly overlook obvious weaknesses in the team. A “leader” who basically no one has any reason to support, aside from those with personal or professional reasons to pretend otherwise.

  195. digger50 says:

    Well I’m trying to be nice about it. I’m sure he can do some things well.

  196. treevojo says:

    Speaking of WOODGUYS!

    I haven’t seen OMJO around for a little while.

    You have 2 rounds of playoffs and a miracle to win your side of the bet.

    Good luck

    I’m kind of looking forward to a $100 donation to my favourite website in my name.

  197. Wilde says:

    Hah, oh man.

    The headache of moderating is not lost on me, Lowetide.

    Thank you for your service.

  198. Wilde says:

    Thank you for the Duclair mention the other day, Confused, I had assumed Chicago would keep him as teams don’t usually move on that quickly from trade acquisitions.

  199. Wilde says:

    Scouring the USHL right now and my god this next crop of team USA kids is absolutely bonkers.

    Via prospect-stats Cole Caufield has a higher 5v5 g/60 rate than Wahlstrom at many months younger.

    Remember these names for next draft:

    Jack Hughes(lol)
    Cole Caufield
    Matthew Boldy
    Alex Turcotte
    Cam York

    Also on that note: I like Joel Farabee a lot at #10.

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