Draft Morning

by Lowetide

What would you like to see from the 2018 draft? I like skill, and was especially pleased to see Kailer Yamamoto drafted by the Oilers last season. A forward so small, chosen in the first round, by the Oilers? The last forward under 5.10 drafted by Edmonton in the first round was never, although a bunch of 5.10’s (Andrew Cogliano, Rob Schremp, Tyler Wright) were chosen early. I’d like to see skill wingers and puck movers, two-way defensemen and a goalie. Please and thanks.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Predicting the late June trade that will flummox Oilers fans this summer
  • New Jonathan Willis: Is Ty Rattie capable of injecting skill on an Oilers scoring line?
  • Lowetide: Ty Smith a quality fit for the Oilers at No. 10 overall.
  • Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s pick at No. 10 has great value.
  • Lowetide: Woodcroft walks the streets of Bakersfield
  • Lowetide: The Oilers and Mikko Koskinen.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

OILERS PROSPECT DEPT CHART

I’m not really worried about actual slotting (feel free to fix, I didn’t spend a lot of time on sussing out why Cooper Marody is a playmaker and Cameron Hebig is a scoring forward) but I did want to see where the holes are now.

  • Goalie is a position that could use an addition, it isn’t a strong year for the position. Olivier Rodrigue (Sylvain’s son) is coming off a strong U18’s and I could see the Oilers grabbing him in the second or third round.
  • Puck moving D is an area that could use some help, the last time Edmonton used a first rounder on one came in 2011 (Oscar Klefbom). Ethan Bear had a good year but is probably a year from pushing for regular work. Caleb Jones should close the gap between himself and NHL employment this season. Quinn Hughes, Ty Smith, Adam Boqvist and Ryan Merkley are four who qualify, there might be some good lesser ones at No. 40 as well.
  • Two-way D is another area of need, Darnell Nurse was chosen in 2013 and there hasn’t been much early since. I do like this Samorukov and maybe Berglund crosses the ocean next fall. Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson are two impressive blue who will go in the top half of the first round.
  • Shutdown D has a quality player in the NHL (Adam Larsson) and Lagesson who is a promising prospect. I’m one of the people who believes in defense, but don’t think they should be chosen in the top 100. Starting fourth round, Oilers can fill their hats. Mattias Samuelsson is my top ranked pure shutdown blue.
  • Playmaking C isn’t a priority because the Oilers have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl but any time skill is available teams should grab it. Edmonton could use an undersized center prospect right now to develop. Aidan Dudas (5.08), Jake Wise (5.10) and Allan McShane (5.11) are all worthwhile prospects. Joe Veleno will go early.
  • Two-way C has Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the NHL team (as a LW) and I’m a fan of Aapeli Rasanen but that doesn’t mean he’s going to make the NHL. Barret Hayton is the best available in this category, Edmonton would need to use the No. 10 overall selection to get him. Jacob Olofsson has a very nice resume.
  • Scoring F is the No. 1 priority in my opinion, your mileage may vary. Kailer Yamamoto is bona fide and I do like Kirill Maksimov and Ostap Safin, but Edmonton should draft three more scoring wingers this summer. If any of Oliver Wahlstrom, Jesperi Kotkianiemi or Brady Tkachuk are available, the Oilers will be tempted.
  • Two-way W houses Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at the NHL level, I think Tyler Benson is a good NHL prospect. Joel Farabee is a terrific prospect who would qualify in this category, he would also qualify as a scoring winger.

As many of you may know, I’m a Bruins fan going back to Bobby Orr with a crew cut. Boston has been a playoff team all but seven seasons since Orr’s rookie season, they are a fairly consistent player in the East. Bruins lost last night, Tampa Bay had too much times too many. That said, Boston has something the Oilers badly need: A procurement system brimming with talent. Here are the Bruins (and then Oilers) rookies (one point or more) by season since Connor McDavid’s arrival.

  • 2015-16 Bruins: Colin Miller (16 points); Frank Vatrano (11); Landon Ferraro (10); Joe Morrow (7); Tyler Randall (6).
  • 2016-17 Bruins: Brandon Carlo (16 points); Austin Czarnik (13); Noel Acciari (5); Anton Blidh (2); Peter Cehlarik (2); G Zane McIntyre (.858); Malcom Subban (.813).
  • 2017-18 Bruins: Danton Heinen (47 points); Jake DeBrusk (43); Charlie McAvoy (32); Matt Grzelcyk (15); Sean Kuraly (14); Anders Bjork (12); Ryan Donato (9).
  • 2015-16 Oilers: Connor McDavid (48 points); Iiro Pakarinen (13); Brandon Davidson (11); Darnell Nurse (10); Jordan Oesterle (5); Jujhar Khaira (2); Griffin Reinhart (1); G Anders Nilsson (.901).
  • 2016-17 Oilers: Drake Caggiula (18 points); Matt Benning (15); Anton Slepyshev (10); Jesse Puljujarvi (8).
  • 2017-18 Oilers: Pontus Aberg (8); Ethan Bear (4); Kailer Yamamoto (3); G Laurent Brossoit (.883).

Connor McDavid is easily the best of the entire group listed, but if you ran a top 10 talents through these seasons, Boston would be well represented. What’s more, the Bruins have more talent bubbling under. People point to the Griffin Reinhart trade and that’s fair, but the Oilers 2014 and 2015 drafts were rocked by traded picks and that’s going to impact this organization for a few years to come. I don’t think it would be wise to trade the first-round selection.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’re drunk with guests and they’re all top drawer. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. The Jets can move into the final four with a win tonight. Heady times on the prairies.
  • Jason Rogers, Japers’ Rink. The Capitals can go through tonight and ensure a new Stanley Cup champion this summer.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Bruins survive Lick Gate but can’t beat back the Lightning, and is this the week we see Edmonton name the new assistant coaches?
  • Ken Boehlke, Sin Bin Vegas. All aboard the crazy train, the Golden Knights rule the Pacific.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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93 comments

Doug McLachlan May 7, 2018 - 8:49 am

LT, you can’t just put this out there in the middle of your blog post and then go and talk about Bruin draft prowess!

“Fluto Shinzawa‏Verified account @FlutoShinzawa

Follow Follow @FlutoShinzawa

Looking at the Bruins’ greatest offseason need later today at @TheAthleticBOS. Priority is left-side defense.

7:26 AM – 7 May 2018”

You are not too subtly prompting us to talk about the Oilers’ Leftorium. With McAvoy, Carlo developing nicely for the Bs on the RHD – who are you slyly suggesting the Oilers target? And for what?

russ99 May 7, 2018 - 9:10 am

I’d go forward in the first three rounds, as it’s an obvious need, D take longer than forwards to develop, and if we go D, that’s another year without addressing forward quality moving to the AHL and then to the NHL club at entry level deals.

We have some D already in the system that will bubble up the next 2-3 years where this is the minimum development time of a higher draft pick, Nurse is a good example.

If we draft a D, we’re looking at him impacting the NHL roster as a shaky rookie in 2020-2021, and at the same time, we could have a stable of forwards in the AHL ready to help out at the NHL level.

99266in87 May 7, 2018 - 9:21 am

I know it’s been forever, Dale Derkatch in ‘81. 5’5” WCHL Regina Pat perennial scoring champ.

cowboy bill May 7, 2018 - 9:38 am

I agree keep the pick . I can’t see Chiarelli making a deal with the Bruins . If in fact LT is suggesting the Oil trade a LHD to the Bruins . Klefbom for Carlo straight up , might be a consideration . A simple hockey trade to patch things up between the two organizations . That I’d like to see .

The Oilers need defense right now . Drafting another D to bolster an already plentiful prospect pool is fine . The more the merrier . Taking the best forward available would be fine too at #10 and make more sense at the same time .

Lowetide May 7, 2018 - 9:38 am

Doug McLachlan:
LT, you can’t just put this out there in the middle of your blog post and then go and talk about Bruin draft prowess!

“Fluto Shinzawa‏Verified account @FlutoShinzawa

Follow Follow @FlutoShinzawa

Looking at the Bruins’ greatest offseason need later today at @TheAthleticBOS. Priority is left-side defense.

7:26 AM – 7 May 2018”

You are not too subtly prompting us to talk about the Oilers’ Leftorium.With McAvoy, Carlo developing nicely for the Bs on the RHD – who are you slyly suggesting the Oilers target?And for what?

I thought it would be more powerful if I just set it there and didn’t reference it. In your case, I was right! 🙂

Yeti May 7, 2018 - 9:43 am

Just wanted to point out that the link to the Willis piece on Rattie doesn’t appear to be working (at least not out here in the Himalayas).

Edit: this works for me – https://theathletic.com/343081/2018/05/05/is-ty-rattie-capable-of-injecting-skill-on-an-oilers-scoring-line-or-merely-the-teams-next-failed-audition/

Woogie63 May 7, 2018 - 10:01 am

Why is it so hard to get players in the first and second round in the same year? Especially when we should pick so high in the second round.

In the last 11 drafts our second round pick have 103 NHL points, 41 of those points have been scored for another NHL team

2017
Yamamoto
No second round pick

2016
Puljujarvi
Benson (0 NHL points)

2015
McDavid
No Second round pick

2014
Draisaitl
No second round pick

2013
Nurse
Roy (0 NHL points)

2012
Yakupov
Moroz (0 NHL points)

2011
Hopkins + Klefbom
Musil (2 NHL points)

2010
Hall
Pitlick (41 NHL points ), Marincin (25 NHL points) + Hamilton (0 NHL points)

2009
Paajarvi
Lander (35 NHL points)

2008
Eberle
No Second round draft pick

jtblack May 7, 2018 - 10:03 am

As the game transitions to more and more speed lets look at our current RHD and their skating.

LARSSON – average overall
BENNING – slightly below avg speed. rest average
GRYBA – below average in all areas

Our 3 best D skaters play left side (Sek Klef Nurse).

RUSSELL prob slightly above average?

So we need some speed / skating ability on the RHD

Munny May 7, 2018 - 10:04 am

Sorry I read that title as “Draft Mourning”…

😉

Munny May 7, 2018 - 10:05 am

jtblack,

Most of the change has been more speed in the head and hands. Less so the feet.

jtblack May 7, 2018 - 10:07 am

Woogie63,

Great Info. 2nd and 3rd round picks are the key to building a deep team.

Oilers have been horrible in this capacity.

Go through any of the top teams left in the playoffs and you will see at least 1 Impact player drafted in Round 2 or Later …
Guentzel
Point
Hellybuck
Arvidsson
Whole VGS team 😉

barry.moore23 May 7, 2018 - 10:21 am

I wonder if it could be our coaching ??

** runs for the hills 🙂

OilSafety May 7, 2018 - 10:27 am

Does Russell have any connection to Boston? He would be my ideal LD target player to move, and I am sure many others.

Sekera was our best d man every year hes been here save for last year, I dont want to see them trade low on him now or buy him out. A buy out seems like such a crappy way to treat one of the only free agent wins we have had in the last decade.

Nurse and Klef are just coming into their own and assuming Nurse can be signed to something reasonable that’s an excellent top 2 LD for years to come. I would hate to see either traded.

slopitch May 7, 2018 - 10:48 am

The Oilers boned it not getting Colin Miller last summer. I dont see them moving out another piece since Chara cant have too many years left.

ArmchairGM May 7, 2018 - 10:51 am

cowboy bill:
I agree keep the pick . I can’t see Chiarelli making a deal with the Bruins . If in fact LT is suggesting the Oil trade a LHD to the Bruins . Klefbom for Carlo straight up , might be a consideration . A simple hockey trade to patch things up between the two organizations . That I’d like to see .

The Oilers need defense right now . Drafting another D to bolster an already plentiful prospect pool is fine. The more the merrier . Taking the best forward available would be fine too at #10 and make more sense at the same time .

I thought we were after a puck-moving D-man?? Klefbom-for-Carlo would make our D-corps WORSE at moving the puck, not better.

jtblack May 7, 2018 - 10:53 am

Can we see what each player got and gave up 5×5?

Klef
Nurse
Lars

& anyway to see what their 5×5 GF-GA W/O McDavid on ice?

ArmchairGM May 7, 2018 - 10:55 am

OilSafety:
Does Russell have any connection to Boston? He would be my ideal LD target player to move, and I am sure many others.

Sekera was our best d man every year hes been here save for last year, I dont want to see them trade low on him now or buy him out. A buy out seems like such a crappy way to treat one of the only free agent wins we have had in the last decade.

Nurse and Klef are just coming into their own and assuming Nurse can be signed to something reasonable that’s an excellent top 2 LD for years to come. I would hate to see either traded.

+1

ArmchairGM May 7, 2018 - 11:08 am

jtblack:
Can we see what each player got and gave up 5×5?

Klef
Nurse
Lars

& anyway to see what their 5×5 GF-GA W/O McDavid on ice?

Player GF-GA
Nurse 69-56
Larsson 48-48
Klefbom 44-57

With McDavid
Nurse 32-13 in 541 mins // 3.54/60 – 1.44/60
Larsson 27-19 in 443 // 3.66 – 2.57
Klefbom 29-24 in 418 // 4.16 – 3.44

Without McDavid
Nurse 37-43 (46.25%) in 1006 mins // 2.21/60 – 2.56/60
Larsson 21-29 (42%) in 746 // 1.69 – 2.33
Klefbom 15-33 (31.25%) in 700 // 1.29 – 2.83

Note this doesn’t take into account competition, i.e. Larsson’s Away TOI may have been against tougher comp than Nurse’s Away TOI, but it appears that Nurse does better than the other Away. Larsson is nearly as good and much lower event… Nurse is probably the best to pair with McDavid too, just on goal differential.

jtblack May 7, 2018 - 12:14 pm

ArmchairGM: Player GF-GA
Nurse69-56
Larsson 48-48
Klefbom 44-57

With McDavid
Nurse32-13 in 541 mins//3.54/60 – 1.44/60
Larsson27-19 in 443//3.66 – 2.57
Klefbom29-24 in 418//4.16 – 3.44

Without McDavid
Nurse 37-43 (46.25%) in 1006 mins//2.21/60 – 2.56/60
Larsson21-29 (42%) in 746//1.69 – 2.33
Klefbom15-33 (31.25%) in 700//1.29 – 2.83

Note this doesn’t take into account competition, i.e. Larsson’s Away TOI may have been against tougher comp than Nurse’s Away TOI, but it appears that Nurse does better than the other Away. Larsson is nearly as good and much lower event… Nurse is probably the best to pair with McDavid too, just on goal differential.

Thank you very much.

Those numbers show Klef very poor.

Same old shit. Without McD on the ice, Nobidy can saw off. WOW

jtblack May 7, 2018 - 12:17 pm

I think the GM has to “force” the coach to Staple Leon at 2C no matter what. He can play PP1 and OT with McD. Otherwise he has to learn to saw off (or better) in the 2C spot.

This would be the firs time since 2006 where we had to lines on the positive side of the Ledger.

Richard S.S. May 7, 2018 - 12:20 pm

Unless Peter Chiarelli is interested in someone on a Team still playing, we should hear about Coaching (Asst.) decisions over the next two weeks. Otherwise too little time is available for the Assistants to be getting up to speed on learning the Players. I’m not sure who Todd McLelland and Peter Chiarelli are looking for. The best options might not want to be Assistants/Assistants on the Oilers. Sometimes money and term do not matter.

Wilde May 7, 2018 - 12:23 pm

Cassandra,

Had just finished reading this, came away impressed with Yawney’s attitude.

This organisation needs as many players-side guys as it can get.

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 12:36 pm

McDavid sets up Ekblad for a one-timer goal from the point.

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 12:47 pm

Is Chabot taking Nurse’s ice? I’ve watched most of the 2nd period (tough day at the office) and don’t think I’ve seen Nurse take shift.

leadfarmer May 7, 2018 - 12:52 pm

jtblack:
As the game transitions to more and more speed lets look at our current RHD and their skating.

LARSSON – average overall
BENNING – slightly below avg speed.rest average
GRYBA – below average in all areas

Our 3 best D skaters play left side (Sek Klef Nurse).

RUSSELL prob slightly above average?

So we need some speed / skating ability on the RHD

No do for passing the puck
Larsson – below avg. He actually is a good passer but chooses not to be
Benning – Close to but slightly below avg
Gryba worse than replacement level
Russell – worse than most replacement level
And thats were our issues arise. Turn the puck over cause we cant get it to our forwards with speed. Doesnt matter how well you the Ricki box you are protecting when you are always protecting

ArmchairGM May 7, 2018 - 1:00 pm

jtblack: Thank you very much.

Those numbers show Klef very poor.

Same old shit. Without McD on the ice, Nobidy can saw off. WOW

Don’t forget Klefbom played injured most of the year. Last year’s GF numbers were better:

58.93 GF% With McDavid
47.76 GF% Without

BUT, SF%, FF% were positive without McDavid, CF% was basically even. He wasn’t a black hole without the best player on the ice when healthy.

Also, Larsson’s GF% was positive WOW McDavid, 59.02 / 53.85 in 2016-17.

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 1:08 pm

“Puck moving D is an area that could use some help, the last time Edmonton used a first rounder on one came in 2011 (Oscar Klefbom).”

Great think the first round is flush with this type of player – even if noone drops Ty Smith, Bode Wilde, Ryan Merkley, etc. will be available. Perhaps a Dobson or Hughes (or Boquist or Bouchard) is somehow available for us…..

ArmchairGM May 7, 2018 - 1:12 pm

Here’s a list of Oilers who had a positive 5v5 GF% with McDavid on the bench:

1. Auvitu 58.06%
2. Maroon 53.85%

Expand that to All Strengths and the list is just as long but the names inverted.

Neither player is likely to be on the 2018-19 roster.

Huh.

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 1:14 pm

Oliver Wahlstrom, Jesperi Kotkianiemi, Brady Tkachuk, Ty Smith, Quinn Hughes, Noah Dobson, Adam Boquist, Evan Bouchard, Joel Farabee.

At least two of the above are going to be available and I’d be super-stoked to draft any one of them – each of them excites me.

Keep the pick!

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 1:14 pm

I put Cooper Marody in the 2-way center category (based off 3 games I saw Michigan play).

I feel he’s a Rasanen type player but more developed (and with more skill).

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 1:18 pm

Eberle scores on a McDavid rebound (PPG)

Alpine May 7, 2018 - 1:19 pm

Great write up on Smith the other day, LT. I think more and more I hope the Oilers pick him at 10. Feels like he’s being underrated compared to the D above him due to being smaller and a lefty.

Jordan May 7, 2018 - 1:20 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Eberle scores on a McDavid rebound (PPG)

I am one of the people who was happy to see him go.

Now I miss him.

I was wrong.

Can we have a mulligan on this one?

If we can, can we have any other mulligans? I can think of a few that might be worth revisiting…

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 1:23 pm

Beauty goal by Nuge – great skill to coral a bouncing puck in the neutral zone and over the blueline and scores off his quick release.

ArmchairGM May 7, 2018 - 1:23 pm

Here’s a list of Oilers who had a negative 5v5 GF% with McDavid on the ice:

1. Bear 33.33%
2. Sekera 41.18%
3. Caggiula 45.45%
4. Russell 48.72%

Expand that to All Strengths and the list looks like this:

1. Russell 46.67%
2. Sekera 48.15%

All players are likely to be on the 2018-19 roster.

Huh.

**************

Of course, Bear is a rookie and SSS alert applies here, and Sekera played poorly coming off the injury as was expected. But still… these guys succeed in dragging McDavid down to below 50%. That’s bad.

Worse still is the fact that Sekera and Russell are making $9.5M next year and are basically untradeable this summer, and Caggiula is up for a contract renewal and we can be pretty sure it’ll be an overpay on both term and value. Just pray that Caggs doesn’t get an NMC.

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 1:27 pm

Richard S.S.:
Unless Peter Chiarelli is interested in someone on a Team still playing, we should hear about Coaching (Asst.) decisions over the next two weeks.Otherwise too little time is available for the Assistants to be getting up to speed on learning the Players.I’m not sure who Todd McLelland and Peter Chiarelli are looking for.The best options might not want to be Assistants/Assistants on the Oilers.Sometimes money and term do not matter.

One of the rumored options is Emanuel Viveiros who is still coaching the Swift Current Broncos in the WHL finals.

ArmchairGM May 7, 2018 - 1:27 pm

Jordan: I am one of the people who was happy to see him go.

Now I miss him.

I was wrong.

Can we have a mulligan on this one?

If we can, can we have any other mulligans?I can think of a few that might be worth revisiting…

Ya think?

Cassandra May 7, 2018 - 1:28 pm

leadfarmer,

Great job the past few days standing up to Ricki’s dangerous nonsense.

Cassandra May 7, 2018 - 1:30 pm

The Athletic really is fantastic.

Here is an article on the Tampa’s AHL team. https://theathletic.com/343756/2018/05/06/how-the-syracuse-crunch-used-the-lightnings-blueprint-to-become-the-ahls-fastest-team/

Until the Oilers commit to running their AHL team the way the Marlies and the Crunch are run they will be forever dependent on McDavid luck.

The problem is there is no evidence they see a problem

Alpine May 7, 2018 - 1:30 pm

Jordan: I am one of the people who was happy to see him go.

Now I miss him.

I was wrong.

Can we have a mulligan on this one?

If we can, can we have any other mulligans?I can think of a few that might be worth revisiting…

I never really was an Eberle fan for most of his time here. I cheered for him a lot as a rookie as I do for every rookie because I never want a player to bust. But after his sophomore year he was geting pretty overrated by fans and media alike who didn’t believe in SH% regression. I wanted to him to become more of a two-way player to offset his regression from near 80 points to a regular 60 point guy.

That flipped in recent years where those same fans who anointed Ebs the chosen one in 2012 wanted him shipped out at any cost. I didn’t want him traded as soon we moved Hall because I knew we would lose any trade involving Eberle. Kinda weird how that works out, as since 2012 I was saying he’s the guy you move for a defenseman.

pts2pndr May 7, 2018 - 1:39 pm

russ99:
I’d go forward in the first three rounds, as it’s an obvious need, D take longer than forwards to develop,and if we go D, that’s another year without addressing forward quality moving to the AHL and then to the NHL club at entry level deals.

We have some D already in the system that will bubble up the next 2-3 years where this is the minimum development time of a higher draft pick, Nurse is a good example.

If we draft a D, we’re looking at him impacting the NHL roster as a shaky rookie in 2020-2021, and at the same time, we could have a stable of forwards in the AHL ready to help out at the NHL level.

It was this kind of thinking that was responible in large part to to having to move Hall for a right shot defenseman. If we are lucky enough to have one of the top four right shot defenseman still avlbl at 10 that would be the prudent pick. This draft is one of the best for right shot defensemen in the last 5 years. People on this blog even last year were talking about a Faulk for Nuge deal and what we would have to add. The longer it takes to get balance in drafting the longer we wander in the wilderness!

Wilde May 7, 2018 - 1:52 pm

Huh… Adam Larsson’s hit in the Sweden-France contest probably should have gotten him tossed from the game and maybe more.

McSorley33 May 7, 2018 - 2:02 pm

ArmchairGM,

Expand that to All Strengths and the list looks like this:

1. Russell 46.67%
2. Sekera 48.15%

All players are likely to be on the 2018-19 roster.
*************************************************************************************************************
Truly spectacular.

It will get better next year though, right?

I mean, that is the plan to hope for the best with the below…,right?

Looch turns 30 he will get better next year, right?

Sekera turns 32 he will get better next year.

Russell turned 31 he will get better.

I have to assume Winnipeg, Nashville, and Vegas simply capitulate next year

Wilde May 7, 2018 - 2:08 pm

The Chabot to McDavid to Nuge goal just now illustrates just how /easy/ it is to pass to McDavid in transition… Shame how little our D group can manage it.

jtblack May 7, 2018 - 2:16 pm

ArmchairGM: Don’t forget Klefbom played injured most of the year. Last year’s GF numbers were better:

58.93 GF% With McDavid
47.76 GF% Without

BUT, SF%, FF% were positive without McDavid, CF% was basically even. He wasn’t a black hole without the best player on the ice when healthy.

Also, Larsson’s GF% was positive WOW McDavid, 59.02 / 53.85 in 2016-17.

clearly need these numbers for next season.

jtblack May 7, 2018 - 2:19 pm

ArmchairGM:
Here’s a list of Oilers who had a positive 5v5 GF% with McDavid on the bench:

1. Auvitu58.06%
2. Maroon53.85%

Expand that to All Strengths and the list is just as long but the names inverted.

Neither player is likely to be on the 2018-19 roster.

Huh.

I think last summer, 3 of the top goal scorers W/O Mcdavid were PITLICK, POULIOT & EBERLE All moved out.

So if they moved on from the +Corsi% W/O McD, it would surprise nobody.

They go by the eye test. And Culture & Leadership 😉

Richard S.S. May 7, 2018 - 2:45 pm

Milan Lucic looked old, slow and done as an NHLer last season. The things he does well weren’t in evidence last year as much. It’s unknown what to expect from him next season, but he was very good on the run to the Playoffs – that shouldn’t disappear. Will be be better next year? An optimistic maybe, it’s hard to be worse.

Andrej Sekera was one of the Oiler best Defenseman until he was hurt in the Playoffs. That talent never goes away. His injury is something that really takes a year to make a 100% recovery. Will he be better next year? Abosoultely!

Kris Russell does some things very well and others not so much. To get the best from him, he needs to play with an experienced partner who can do what he can’t. Last year that regularly wasn’t the case. Will he be better next year? Yes, because he can’t be worse.

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 2:55 pm

Cassandra:
The Athletic really is fantastic.

Here is an article on the Tampa’s AHL team.https://theathletic.com/343756/2018/05/06/how-the-syracuse-crunch-used-the-lightnings-blueprint-to-become-the-ahls-fastest-team/

Until the Oilers commit to running their AHL team the way the Marlies and the Crunch are run they will be forever dependent on McDavid luck.

The problem is there is no evidence they see a problem

Is letting the entire coaching staff go not such evidence?

rickithebear May 7, 2018 - 3:15 pm

Blah blah blah
I have opinion on d passing!
Blah blah blah!

But I ignore facts if they do not fit my point of view!

Blah blah blah!

Passing?
Assists?
To compare d ?
Even Assists?

Eva Dmen 14-15 to 16-17
Only ones that can be top high danger area and 0% corsi Dmen while generating transition.
3. Josi 78 Eva
6. Hedman 73 Eva
7. Suter 71 Eva
18. Krug 61 Eva
19. Doughty 60 Eva
23. Niskanen 56 Eva
27. Weber 51 Eva
32. Edholm 48 Eva
35. Larsson , Vlasic 47 Eva
41. Ellis, Hjarlmasson, Braun 45eva
47. Stralman, Alzner, Spurgeon 43eva
54. Sekera, Cole, Chara, DeHaan 42 Eva
61. Russell 41 Eva
73. Lindholm 38 Eva
79. Tanev 36 Eva
90. Klefbom 33 eva bott 30 hd dman.
D skating the puck up is not a quick transition.

leadfarmer May 7, 2018 - 3:23 pm

rickithebear,

Passing and assists actually dont coincide because vast majority of d passes never end up on the score sheet and you are just counting the lucky few that do. Larsson for example gets a decent amount of assists but actually is a crap passer because of decision making and not because his ability to make a pass. Russell is an absolutely horrendous passer, one of the worst tape to tape passers in the league

leadfarmer May 7, 2018 - 3:29 pm

rickithebear,

Oh cmon. At least half of those guys you dont even like.

rickithebear May 7, 2018 - 3:33 pm

leadfarmer:
rickithebear,

Oh cmon.At least half of those guys you dont even like.

Real dmen
Larsson
Sekera
Russell
Go oilers!

The rest I want!

DeHaan – Larsson
Sekera – Russel
Nurse – Cole

Nurse is our worst passer!

leadfarmer May 7, 2018 - 3:43 pm

Cassandra:
leadfarmer,

Great job the past few days standing up to Ricki’s dangerous nonsense.

Yeah at some point being called idiots gets old.
Especially when the league has absolutely destroyed his HD theory. And each year that passes the league tears bigger and bigger holes into that theory. Pittsburgh winning back to back cups left a bear sized turd right on that theory and now Vegas, Jets absolutely tore that theory up.
How many Ricki defenseman are even left in the playoffs. Even the guys he listed above that can pass the puck according to him because of even strength assists. Theres what 5 of those guys left at this point. And thats using his passing metric.

Scungilli Slushy May 7, 2018 - 4:27 pm

leadfarmer: No do for passing the puck
Larsson – below avg.He actually is a good passer but chooses not to be
Benning – Close to but slightly below avg
Gryba worse than replacement level
Russell – worse than most replacement level
And thats were our issues arise.Turn the puck over cause we cant get it to our forwards with speed.Doesnt matter how well you theRicki box you are protecting when you are always protecting

I think the forwards are playing into the bad breakouts. Young guys learning still and slow vets not supporting the puck well.

There is something to the stretch passes and glass clearings.

Babcock had the Leafs doing it. I can see the stretch used to beat clogged N zones and the glass to mess up aggressive forechecks. Have to do it right though or it’s coming straight back at you.

--hudson-- May 7, 2018 - 6:07 pm

Now that the league is going to be “copycatting” the fast teams like Vegas, what are counter strategies that can work. Rather than chasing the premium fast players the way they previously chased heavy, maybe the Oilers can get ahead of the curve this time?

Munny May 7, 2018 - 6:08 pm

Caps with quaternary scoring

Edit: The Man from Oz picks up his first ever playoff point.

Wilde May 7, 2018 - 6:16 pm

Scungilli Slushy,

The overall skill level of the wingers was a real detriment to the breakout for sure.

Almost no one could reliably turn a pass reception into a meaningful transition to the offensive zone.

Poster boy for this was obviously Lucic, but it was a team-wide issue.

Anything but tape to tape and they’d fumble it and pass into the skates or too far ahead, and even if they had time and space it was wasted.

Absolutely brutal having only 3 guys who can actually handle the puck getting regular work up front.

Munny May 7, 2018 - 6:23 pm

–hudson–,

Little premature. If the Knights are swept by say the Jets next round, no one will be talking about copycatting the Kaniggits.

Scungilli Slushy May 7, 2018 - 6:30 pm

–hudson–:
Now that the league is going to be “copycatting” the fast teams like Vegas, what are counter strategies that can work.Rather than chasing the premium fast players the way they previously chased heavy, maybe the Oilers can get ahead of the curve this time?

Sign Lucic!

The last time that curve of beating speed and tempo was the dead puck era. That is dependent on the league loosening up on the rules again. It requires obstruction and back then also trying to hurt the other teams best.

They might allow holding again to creep back in. I’m not sure it will work because now most players can skate and play.

Now I think the way to get ahead of other teams starts with the org. It really has always been this way in hockey and any business. As things change you adapt and continue to put the best talent in place and use them as they need to be used.

Now that coaches have increasingly less leverage on players because of money, that person needs to be an incredible manager of people. Make them work hard and also buy in all the way. Bag skates and tantrums should be very rare.

I’m no expert but employ millennials and later and what used to work before and what I experienced starting my work career doesn’t work now.

It has to be more positive and subtle because of how they are raised and how it is in school for them.
It may also be a reason why we are seeing so many European players succeeding now.

Old cultures that might not be changing as rapidly and are so stratified that young people know that moving up the social/financial ladder is very hard and if they want it, they seem more motivated and professional to me on the surface.

Except JP ?

Scungilli Slushy May 7, 2018 - 6:34 pm

Wilde:
Scungilli Slushy,

The overall skill level of the wingers was a real detriment to the breakout for sure.

Almost no one could reliably turn a pass reception into a meaningful transition to the offensive zone.

Poster boy for this was obviously Lucic, but it was a team-wide issue.

Anything but tape to tape and they’d fumble it and pass into the skates or too far ahead, and even if they had time and space it was wasted.

Absolutely brutal having only 3 guys who can actually handle the puck getting regular work up front.

I think part was systems. If no forwards are deep enough and there is no support when they get pressed it turns over. Good structured teams make it look easy.

The same goes for backchecking. The D got hung out so often with no forward support or picking up the wrong guy. Youth and sloppiness.

Crazy Pedestrian May 7, 2018 - 6:49 pm

–hudson–,

I was actually thinking about the exact same thing the other day, and was wondering if maybe the league actually might be cycling through different styles. If I had to make a (not-so-expert-like) theory, it would be something like this:

Speed / Quick Transition (Current Style) >beaten by> Hard Trap / Quick Transition

Hard Trap / Quick Transition >beaten by> High Skill / Heavy Forecheck

High Skill / Heavy Forecheck >beaten by> High Skill / Speed

High Skill / Speed >beaten by> Speed / Quick Transition (Current Style)

I might be missing a style in there but what do you guys think? Does this maybe have some truth to it? Or am I on glue?

jtblack May 7, 2018 - 6:55 pm

Scungilli Slushy: I think part was systems. If no forwards are deep enough and there is no support when they get pressed it turns over. Good structured teams make it look easy.

The same goes for backchecking. The D got hung out so often with no forward support or picking up the wrong guy. Youth and sloppiness.

+1. I think the Oilers had too much gap in their breakouts. very little support all over the ice.

Scungilli Slushy May 7, 2018 - 7:02 pm

Crazy Pedestrian:
–hudson–,

I was actually thinking about the exact same thing the other day, and was wondering if maybe the league actually might be cycling through different styles. If I had to make a (not-so-expert-like) theory, it would be something like this:

Speed / Quick Transition (Current Style) >beaten by> Hard Trap / Quick Transition

Hard Trap / Quick Transition >beaten by> High Skill / Heavy Forecheck

High Skill / Heavy Forecheck >beaten by> High Skill / Speed

High Skill / Speed >beaten by> Speed / Quick Transition (Current Style)

I might be missing a style in there but what do you guys think? Does this maybe have some truth to it? Or am I on glue?

Look at the Raptors. Massive change, massive improvement, LeBron is destroying them
At the top of the top of the heap it’s about people. Managing them and finding the difference makers.

You need secondary support, but that’s the easy part. Which is why I have suggested going after the two top players in this draft who I think are going to be a cut above.

If it costs some lesser better talent still do it if you can. It’s always been what makes a perennial contender and multiple champion.

Kinger_Oil.redux May 7, 2018 - 7:09 pm

Scungilli Slushy: Look at the Raptors. Massivechange, massive improvement, LeBron is destroying them
At the top of the top of the heap it’s about people. Managing them and finding the difference makers.

You need secondary support, but that’s the easy part. Which is why I have suggested going after the two top players in this draft who I think are going to be a cut above.

– I’m a big fan of what the Raptors did to change it around this year:kind of my solace for arguing not to fire everyone: coach and GM got together, adapted, tweaked and made some personel changes

– NBA though: it is like it hockey was just one line: we’d be one of the best teams in the league

– 5×5, playing 80% of minutes, LeBron vs the best bench, blah blah: they just can’t beat them.

jp May 7, 2018 - 7:41 pm

rickithebear,

I missed it along the way, but what is 0% corsi D?

Harpers Hair May 7, 2018 - 7:42 pm

Munny,

Munny:
–hudson–,

Little premature. If the Knights are swept by say the Jets next round, no one will be talking about copycatting the Kaniggits.

But they won’t be.

Wilde May 7, 2018 - 7:43 pm

Scungilli Slushy: I think part was systems. If no forwards are deep enough and there is no support when they get pressed it turns over. Good structured teams make it look easy.

The same goes for backchecking. The D got hung out so often with no forward support or picking up the wrong guy. Youth and sloppiness.

Well. I was moreso speakin to situations where it didn’t matter what the system was because the play is there.

If the play isn’t there enough, and it wasn’t, the system needs tweaking.

But in those expressed scenarios where the play /is/ there, and it’s misplayed at the rate that it was, we’ve got a personnel problem without a doubt.

Which of course everyone knows, but usually the conversation surrounding the winger group was focused on the lack of scoring, but the truth is more dire: They weren’t even getting the puck past the red line in a meaningful way.

"Steve Smith" May 7, 2018 - 7:44 pm

Munny:
Edit: The Man from Oz picks up his first ever playoff point.

So-named because he’s from Wales?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYQb3FtJfm0

Bryan May 7, 2018 - 7:52 pm

Wilde:
The Chabot to McDavid to Nuge goal just now illustrates just how /easy/ it is to pass to McDavid in transition… Shame how little our D group can manage it.

I am reminded of 2006 and the look of delight Hemsky would have when he would turn and the puck would magically appear on his stick after another lovely pass from Pronger. I think it was quite the treat for him after years of taking passes off the back of his pants or in his feet or trying to pick them up as they glanced off the glass towards his head.

Munny May 7, 2018 - 8:01 pm

Cuts-his-nuts-off does the same to the Penguins

Munny May 7, 2018 - 8:04 pm

“Steve Smith”: So-named because he’s from Wales?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYQb3FtJfm0

Nobody ever admits they’re Welsh, Steve!

Well except Tom Jones. And that Burton bloke. Okay and Ryan Giggs.

…He might’ve been born there, but he’s Australian.

Munny May 7, 2018 - 8:06 pm

Harpers Hair:
Munny,

But they won’t be.

*Woooosh*

Wilde May 7, 2018 - 8:15 pm

That Gogolev seems like a great bet for a mid round pick.

30 goals in the OHL, yeah, but the other thing is 27 are 5v5 and he did that while playing an estimated 15 and a half minutes a night.

That puts him 2nd among draft eligible in g/gp in the OHL.

Alpine May 7, 2018 - 8:20 pm

Over the moon for the Caps and OV. Think they’re underdogs for sure against Tampa but I think they’ll make it a good series.

JimmyV1965 May 7, 2018 - 8:44 pm

–hudson–:
Now that the league is going to be “copycatting” the fast teams like Vegas, what are counter strategies that can work.Rather than chasing the premium fast players the way they previously chased heavy, maybe the Oilers can get ahead of the curve this time?

I heard an interesting interview today with a beat reporter covering Vegas. He said they don’t have a bunch of burners on the team, he did name three, but they play a high tempo game, execute and work their butts off.

Munny May 7, 2018 - 8:52 pm

Alpine:
Over the moon for the Caps and OV. Think they’re underdogs for sure against Tampa but I think they’ll make it a good series.

Caps need to get healthy.

Munny May 7, 2018 - 8:57 pm

JimmyV1965: I heard an interesting interview today with a beat reporter covering Vegas. He said they don’t have a bunch of burners on the team, he did name three, but they play a high tempo game, execute and work their butts off.

Sounds familiar, lol…

Munny:
jtblack,

Most of the change has been more speed in the head and hands. Less so the feet.

rickithebear May 7, 2018 - 9:15 pm

jp:
rickithebear,

I missed it along the way, but what is 0% corsi D?

0% corsi have 0% chance of going in.
0% Corsi = ( blocks + misses + closed shots)

Closed shot hits a goalie during table hockey goalie movement.

I recognized table hockey goalie movement playing street hockey around PA with a young kid named Ronnie Gunville. He had great movement with puck in the sand.

http://raiderhockey.com/raiders-name-ron-gunville-director-of-player-personnel/

Dmen who cause the highest% of 0% corsi/CA with High shift repeatability.
Make the goalies job very easy.
Make them look way better than there performance may actually be.

Kris Russell is #1 right now
De haan is #2

The deepest 0% corsi team (10 yr period) the last 25 years.
Martin Brodeur faced the lowest open shot % And lowest High danger shot density.

Do you remember the visuals on trying to penetrate NJD.
Stevens, niedermeyer, driver, daneyko, Albelin, Fetisov, Odelien, Peluso, chambers, Rafalski, White.

Brodeur stand up style resulted in a much lower hit goalie rate.
If they had JVB instead they win 1-3 more cups.

Wilde May 7, 2018 - 9:21 pm

Munny,

…really?

Anyone remember when Chiarelli cited an offer sheet threat as a reason to move out money before signing his career-year RFA?

Why then, in a practically identical situation with Nurse, did he sign a 2.5M gamble before the RFA situation is taken care of?

Alpine May 7, 2018 - 9:40 pm

Wilde,

God I hadn’t even really realized Chia’s hypocrisy in the Koskinen signing other than it being an overpayment.

My fave tidbit of last seasons cap panic is that buying out Pouliot in 2018 instead would have left them with one less year on the cap at the same price. They bought him out anyways even knowing they’d be paying McDavid 13+ mil. As was reported, McDavid shaved off some money right before signing which happened some time after the Pou buyout.

OriginalPouzar May 7, 2018 - 10:50 pm

Munny: Caps need to get healthy.

They’ll have until Saturday I think.

--hudson-- May 7, 2018 - 11:05 pm

Crazy Pedestrian:
–hudson–,

I was actually thinking about the exact same thing the other day, and was wondering if maybe the league actually might be cycling through different styles. If I had to make a (not-so-expert-like) theory, it would be something like this:

Speed / Quick Transition (Current Style) >beaten by> Hard Trap / Quick Transition

Hard Trap / Quick Transition >beaten by> High Skill / Heavy Forecheck

High Skill / Heavy Forecheck >beaten by> High Skill / Speed

High Skill / Speed >beaten by> Speed / Quick Transition (Current Style)

I might be missing a style in there but what do you guys think? Does this maybe have some truth to it? Or am I on glue?

That’s interesting. The way you’ve layed it out is like a game of rock-paper-scissors, three strategies each with an equal percent chance of winning. (Only you’ve layed out 4 strategies) None of the strategies are dominant.

The way the Predators played the Jets tonight drastically slowed down their game, or was it lack of execution by the Jets. It would be interesting to break down exactly how they accomplished it. Was it their possession of the puck, preventing the Jets from transporting the puck, or denying zone entries? And if these are driven by a combination of systems and execution, can the players be coached to play this system or do you need a new set of players to make it happen?

Ideally you would want to find the system that matches closest to the core of the team that’s already there, and support that system with the cheapest players you can find in free agency or through the draft. But also most teams turn over their front office, coaching staff, and players too quickly to make this happen unless it’s deeply rooted in the franchise and their philosophy.

JimmyV1965: I heard an interesting interview today with a beat reporter covering Vegas. He said they don’t have a bunch of burners on the team, he did name three, but they play a high tempo game, execute and work their butts off.

This sounds accurate, thanks for sharing it. We know first hand that Perron is not a burner and yet he is one of their most productive players. We also know Engelland is not a highly skilled defenceman and yet he outscored all but 1 our of defenders.

That team is more than the sum of it’s parts.

Munny May 8, 2018 - 12:45 am

Weird.

Munny May 8, 2018 - 12:47 am

OriginalPouzar: They’ll have until Saturday I think.

I don’t know how serious the injuries are (who does in the playoffs) but the break will certainly help. And the suspension is over.

OriginalPouzar May 8, 2018 - 2:46 am

Munny: I don’t know how serious the injuries are (who does in the playoffs) but the break will certainly help.And the suspension is over.

I think I read that, if there was a game 7, Backstrom would not have played. Leads me to think he has a broken hand but that is speculation.

OriginalPouzar May 8, 2018 - 5:25 am

Game 3 of the WHL finals tonight – Go Swift Current and Stuart Skinner!

Part of me wants Swift Current eliminated to the Oilers can officially hire Emanuel Viveiros but I’d love to see Skinner in the Memorial Cup.

jp May 8, 2018 - 6:45 am

rickithebear,

Thanks

jp May 8, 2018 - 7:08 am

Wilde:
Munny,

…really?

Anyone remember when Chiarelli cited an offer sheet threat as a reason to move out money before signing his career-year RFA?

Why then, in a practically identical situation with Nurse, did he sign a 2.5M gamble before the RFA situation is taken care of?

There’s still tons of time for this years Eberle trade.

Lowetide May 8, 2018 - 7:12 am

Alpine:
Over the moon for the Caps and OV. Think they’re underdogs for sure against Tampa but I think they’ll make it a good series.

His postgame interview is pure gold.

Mr DeBakey May 8, 2018 - 7:19 am

Today’s Journal has a doozer by Matty who teams up with Button to discuss trading for a RHD:

“They need immediate offensive punch for a defence that had 29 goals last year.”

“the 10th pick for defenceman Justin Faulk — who has 15-, 16- and 17-goal seasons on his resume — if the Oilers threw in a bigger player such as Jujhar Khaira …Or would Dudley want Puljujarvi straight up”

“Would you be calling the St. Louis Blues on St. Albert’s Colton Parayko for the 10th and Larsson”

“Could they acquire Tyson Barrie from the Colorado Avalanche for Klefbom”

“Could they trade for Vegas Golden Knights defenceman Colin Miller …. “they’d have to really like the player at No. 10, and I think the Oilers would have to deal them somebody like (Matt) Benning, too.”

“Would the Anaheim Ducks be interested in parting with Brandon Montour, who plays a lot like Matt Dumba, for Puljujarvi”

“try for Travis Sanheim of the Philadelphia Flyers or Jacob Larsson of the Ducks for the 10th overall pick”

OriginalPouzar May 8, 2018 - 7:28 am

While some of those trades might not make sense, the value isn’t asinine.

For example, Colton Parayko may be the perfect addition for this team, however, he would need to be acquired to supplement Adam Larsson, not with Larsson going to the other way.

There aren’t that many trade scenarios where I would be willing to give up that 10th overall pick but Colton Parayko would definitely be one – just don’t want Larson going the other way (but cap would have to go the other way).

The Faulk trade, on the other hand, is pure asinine. 12 – 12 even strength points he had this year. Less than half of Darnell Nurse. I’m not confident he can play 2nd pairing minutes and not hurt the team more than he helps and, in that regard, I don’t want to trade for him at all, let alone give up such value.

Lowetide May 8, 2018 - 7:28 am

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