Department of Youth
There will be internal solutions to roster problems for the Oilers this season, it’s just that we can’t seem to agree on any of them. We have a series of factions, which include the “Kailer Yamamoto should play a FIFTH junior season” the “Ty Rattie isn’t a real solution group” and the church of “the coach hates Jesse Puljujarvi” camps. Instead of arguing October, let’s have a look at the long term.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.
- New Lowetide: It was a tough season for Oscar Klefbom.
- New Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse delivered a strong season for the Oilers.
- New Scott Wheeler: Final Draft Rankings 2018.
- Lowetide: Predicting the late June trade that will flummox Oilers fans this summer
- Lowetide: Ty Smith a quality fit for the Oilers at No. 10 overall.
- Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s pick at No. 10 has great value.
- Lowetide: Woodcroft walks the streets of Bakersfield
- Lowetide: The Oilers and Mikko Koskinen.
- Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers and the WHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
KAILER YAMAMOTO
One of the things we can’t agree on is Kailer Yamamoto. If we compare him to Jordan Eberle, the two men marched in lock step until Yamamoto’s final junior season (and even then he finished 1.93 per game after December 31 by going 27, 19-33-52).
Yamamoto should flourish in Bakersfield and I think there’s a good chance he has success in the NHL from the start. Although he’s undersized, his quickness allows him to dart in and out of situations and grab the puck. He doesn’t need to carry the puck to be effective, is an expert passer and can find open lanes and clean air. He has to play with a skill center, to me that means Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl.
- Maroon-McDavid-Yamamoto: 58 minutes, 64.6 Corsi for 5×5, 1-3 GF, Expected GF percentage 66. Via Corsica.
The McDavid-Yamamoto combination didn’t cash but the trio (with Maroon) tilted the ice and should have scored six instead of one based on expectation. It would behoove the coach to try McDavid-Yamamoto again.
JESSE PULJUJARVI
Interesting to look at these players who have compared closely to JP at one time or another. His draft year is close (and in the same league) to Rantanen; his second year resembles Nylander’s (AHL time). Last year? He was a behind all three but scored well enough to project as an NHL regular at 20. Will he score 15 goals? 20? Here are the draft +3 seasons for the three men listed above:
- Mikko Rantanen 81, 29-55-84
- David Pastrnak 75, 34-36-70
- William Nylander 81, 22-39-61
Each man played with terrific skill and we don’t know where JP is going to land on next year’s roster. That said, even if he doesn’t manage to reach the heights reflected here, a 15-to-20 goal season seems manageable as a projection.
Zadina said he couldn't believe it when #Habs moved up to 3. Felt that his dream of playing in MTL could come true. Says MTL likes him and he wants to be there. Convinced he can make a big difference. Isn't afraid of the media pressure.
— Habs Chronicle (@HabsChronicle) May 8, 2018
I believe the Oilers will pick a forward (Kotkaniemi, Veleno, someone in that range) or deal the selection. The team has several youngsters on blue bubbling under, suspect the addition on blue this summer comes via the trade market.
WHEELER’S TOP 100 FOR 2018
Scott Wheeler dropped his final Top 100 for the 2018 draft today, it’s a terrific overview of the draft class with original (and well written) rankings. As a draft fan, I want to know why (as an example) Wheeler values Joe Veleno over Akil Thomas. He is concise and gives a very good overview of each player. Recommended read and good to bookmark for draft day. One curio: Jack McBain. Because he plays outside the established junior leagues, there’s a vagueness about him. Wheeler does a great job of describing him and what can be expected after draft day.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning with much to discuss, TSN1260 starting at 10. Scheduled to appear:
- Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Darnell Nurse: his season, his next contract and his ideal partner.
- Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. A classic series should include a Game 7 and we have one later this week in Nashville.
- Scott Cullen, TSN. Scott’s Offseason Game Plan’s for all 31 teams has begun. In his Carolina Hurricanes piece, he had them acquiring Jesse Puljujarvi from the Oilers for Justin Faulk. We’ll discuss.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Draft +2 PPG.
Nylander – .6
Rantanen – .52
Pasta – .5
JP – .31
JP is not in theor class and should no longer be compared to them. LT has long questioned JP’s O & as tome goes by we know why. Its not going to be where most thought when JP was snagged @ #4.
Salary last season:
Brent Seabrook – $9 Million
VGS TOP 6 Dmen – $8.2 Million
OILERS TOP 6 – $19.5 Million
Yamamoto has an outlier year in goal scoring in his draft year. Otherwise his goal scoring looks light when compared to Eberle.
I wonder if anyone has Yamamoto’s primary points, particularly even strength, so one could get a better idea about what to make of those bucket loads of assists.
The offense will come, but I think it is going to take a year in the AHL to find the range, like the vast majority of small scoring forwards coming out of the WHL.
Eberle had the advantage of games in the AHL after two CHL seasons, and another 10 games or so with Canada at the World Championships. So he had essentially a half season against men before turning pro.
Since THE TRADE:
HALL – 146 pts
LARSSON – 32 pts
Diff players of course, but the numbers are a tell.
Imagine the gap in 3 or 4 years.
Is Faulk a good puck-mover? Must have a yes here or not interested. Is Faulk a RHD? If no, why bother?
Heard an interesting podcast the other day. I forget who the analyst was, but he was questioning the difference in quality between Ty Smith and Calen Addison.
He didn’t see any gap between the two players. They’re the same age, the same size, they both play in the WHL, the both play RHD, although Smith actually shoots left. Smith had 8 more points. Meanwhile, Addison has 19 pts in 16 playoff games. So why is Addison ranked late first round and as low as the second round?
I think we should trade down in the draft this year. I think it makes sense. What am I missing? Why are we talking Smith 10OV and Addison at the end of the first round?
Since McDavid came into the league:
McDavid – 256pts in 209gms
Lionel Messi – 0pts in 0gms
Different sports of course, but the numbers are a tell.
Imagine the gap in 3 or 4 years if Messi doesn’t learn to play Hockey in his 30’s.
jtblack,
So, what is the connection between Hall and Larsson?
jtblack,
Comparing points of dmen to forwards? We are better than this.
Cheering hard for my boy JP. Blake Wheeler played Draft+3 in US college and his draft + 4 through draft + 6 years were all around 0.5 ppg. It was draft +7 where he got 64 pts in 80 games. So I guess the point is, we dont know if/when the offence will come with JP. But I like sheltering him, playing 3rd line minutes till/if it does. Probably in time for the next GM of the oilers 😉
At some time small is small and skill matters not.
Small means being a target and speed does not always help.
Playing top six means driving the line upon occassion, sometimes for the game.
Some people think he’ll be an offensive asset.
I think he’ll spend more time hurt than actually playing.
The players who like taking cheap shots are still playing. (Like the McDavid accident his first year).
Since the Trade: Playoff Games won:
Hall – 1
Larsson – 7
Was your post serious or were you purposely trolling?
LT, if the Islanders wanted to flip their 12 for the 10, and include Ho Sang, would you do if you are the Oil? Would the Islanders even do that?
Why did The Trade happen?
1) The McDavid “accident”.
2) Line Changes – a too regular occurence. Skating into opposing zone with the puck – doesn’t pass to open player – doesn’t shoot the puck – tries to get in closer. Loses the puck – skates off on a line change – no longer matters where the puck is.
3) Actually needing a real RHD.
jtblack,
Good grief… If your still guarding the Alamo… Davy Crockett wants his gun back…
Let it go… you’ll feel better…
One of the areas I’m looking into is usage. JP has been sheltered quite a bit and his qual team has been lesser. So, it’s a nuanced situation.
IMO Failk is now in Jultz territory when he was with the OIL ..No way I am trading more than a third with Carolina retaining 50% of the salary and even then I’m not 100% for it.
There is absolutely no way I am trading that pick short of getting a major cost controlled talent in what would have to be a blockbuster trade or a fleecing of some other GM with a history like Chia if they actually exist that is.
The move to try and solve the goaltending is a bit baffling to say the least. This is a major risk reward for a GM that is on the hot seat. IMO it is the single most important move Chia had to make during the off season. I hope he and his scouts got this correct as the payday he gave Koskinen is going to restrict his ability to spend in other areas of need. Gutsy move to say the least. If he got it right I will be the first to give him praise but I am very skeptical to be sure.
We really NEED a strong draft this year to match what I thought was a good draft last year.
Although I was for picking Vesalienen over Yammer and still feel that way today.
Except let’s try it in January or February sometime next season!
No more digging holes!
There’s also the issue of lack of special teams time.
I’m pretty encouraged by JP’s 5v5 play and primary points/60. Not really sure why people are down on him.
Smith is a brilliant skater.
The Oilers management and coaching didn’t understand that the Oilers were winning the game overall when Hall was on the ice for the Edmonton Oilers. They lost because of what happened on the ice when he was off the ice.
Since THE TRADE:
LUPUL – 386 pts
PRONGER – 242 pts
Diff players of course, but the numbers are a tell.
How about playoff points since the trade?
Tied at 6’s!
One for one trade!
It’s a tell!
http://prospect-stats.com/WHL/2017-18/forwards/5v5
Across all game states, Yamamoto was 10th in primary points per game. At 5v5, he was 12th.
Only two of the guys ahead of him are younger, and the difference is small.
By estimated TOI, he is 21st. Part of his perceived lack of production is therefore due not just to his slow start, but probably also TOI. Not sure why he was only around 16 minutes/game.
I think KY’s numbers — based on season splits, TOI, accounting for injury/slow start, etc — are a bit better than they seem at first glance.
Who a player plays with matters a ton.
This is known.
All draft + 2 years and 5v5 pts/60 with most common line mates:
Nylander:
with Hyman 1.03
with Parenteau 2.00
with Greening 2.19
Pastrnak:
with Krejci 2.05
with Ericksson 1.87
with Belesky 1.66
Rantanen:
with McKinnon: 1.66
with Duchene: 0.85
with Landeskog: 1.19
Puljujarvi:
with Lucic 1.16
with McDavid 1.87
with Strome 1.26
with Driasaitl 2.37
All have good results with good players and meh with meh players.
Rantanen had a meh year with good players though. Shit happens with kids.
Look at the results above and ask yourself:
“Are you sure that Puljujarvi doesn’t belong in that group”
My opinion is that he does, the evidence shows that he does and he will be a very good player for a long time in the NHL.
Richard S.S.,
6 of the final 8 teams in the playoffs are in the bottom half of the league for height, with Winnipeg and Washington being the exceptions. Height means he wont be good at basketball or volleyball, wingspan would have a bit more of a correlation but not much.
The game is about skill and speed, thinking otherwise only gets you a job as the oilers GM.
So is Addison.
Smith has better 5×5 numbers and would be considered better Defensively.
The math looks good. So why do so many people say he reminds them of Yakupov in the offensive zone? Seems like there’s a disconnect between the numbers and the visual for some fans.
Woodguy v2.0,
I guess Draft +3 will be a big indicator. The others took a big jump.
Go JP
From Wheeler’s piece:
Smith is without question one of the only truly elite skaters in the 2018 draft. He uses his feet and edgework to evade checks, close gaps and join the rush.
Since we’re cherry picking:
2 years before the trade: 528 goals allowed.
2 years after the trade: 469 goals allowed, including this year’s poor season from Talbot, a partial year playing hurt by Klefbom and a recovery year from Sekera.
I’m not trying to poop on your selection LT. He’s probably a good selection at 10, although it wouldn’t be mine. I’m more concerned about the notion of using the pick there. Smith is a better skater no question, but Addison is an excellent skater as well. I just don’t see the logic picking someone that far ahead of another, based on one facet of the game. And Addison is an excellent skater too, just not as good as Smith.
I will take your word LT. I do wonder what the general consensus on Addison’s skating is.
Addison is a PP wizard. Also might be a dman vampire (as WG would say)
I’d consider Benning and a second for Faulk. Puljujari, Klefbom or the #10 shouldn’t be in the conversation.
Count me as one of those fans. JP has reminded me of Yak at times in terms of his lack of knowing where to be on the ice at times.
The similarities between JP and Yak’s game do get complaints from posters here sometimes. I think they both don’t really grasp what the coach wants from them and really hope JP finds the net more on his shots next year.
I also question Yak’s off season training in terms of both how hard he worked early in his career and the amount of training he needed in the parts of his game that were weak.
I also believe the Oilers development team were also weak in dealing with Yak. I hope the new development crew are very focused on getting JP the right training program in all the area’s he needs to improve.
What I would really like to see is JP and Koskinen training with Connor in the off season and for them both to be in Edmonton working on their games in August.
I really believe this is the make or break year for JP in terms of his status with the Oil. This team desperately needs to get this player to max out his potential starting in the very first game of the 2018/2019 season.
I do believe in this player though. More than I ever did with Yak. Let’s hope he commits to the right amount of training and that he trains this off season on everything the Oil asked of him.
Speaking about usage…remember this guy.
D+2: 59, 6-24-30
D+3: 71, 12-22-34
Remember the coach was panned for slow playing him as well.
D+4 Lockout.
D+5, Hemmer breaks loose.
Hemsky was flat-out brilliant even in the early days.
As a 19 year old, he would do some things that just left you shaking your head. Unbelievable amount of skill. He had a very unique way of handling the puck and thinking the game.
Who would be your ideal pick at 10?
Since THE BREAK UP
Paul McCartney – 37 top 40 singles
Ringo Starr – 11 top 40 singles
Different singers of course…
A PPwizard is only as good as the players he’s playing with,so his numbers could be skewed.
+1
I think some of the impatience with Puljujarvi is just that he’s not Patrik Llaine, the player the Oilers would’ve “naturally” selected free from llottery influence.
I can’t watch the Jets without wistfully imagining what a McDavid – Llaine combination would be llike. The kid’s only 20 and for my money has the most dangerous shot in the lleague excepting Ovechkin.
The Oilers desperately need he and Yamamoto to both develop into serious offensive weapons and relatively soon. The danger of them being pushed to do too much too soon and/or to be traded for llesser value is real and makes me very nervous.
I’m trading it to move down in the first. Would love Hoffman and the 22OV. If I pick, probdbly a forward.
– hi lama- you haven’t posted in awhile!
– I agree with you.
– without getting into a bun fight the current management believed that you can’t win the cup with ebs and hall and bet that with mcd and drai and cheaper wingers like Kailer and pool that was a better roster combination with a solid d corpse and keeping all the c’s
– if Kailer and pool don’t excel with skill then we are pooched. But if/when they do watch out
For sure. Its hard to say if they are skewing him up or if he is zooming the PP up.
WG brought up linemayes earlier in the JP discussion. Interesting is that Ty Smith had 1st & 2nd rounders on his PP and at 5×5. Addison played with much lower talent (comparitively). So maybe Addisons 65 Points are even more impressive.
Does this at all sound familiar? I feel like Oilers Nation is in groundhog day,
I have maintained you will never be a successful organization if you can’t, at a minimum, identify your own best talent….the Oilers have been horrific at identifying their own best players for 15 plus years
Hall, world class skater, world class puck control, top 5 in the league at controlled offensive zone entry. world class passer
McDavid, best skater in the world, best in world puck control,best in world at controlled offensive zone entry, best passer in the world, top scorer in league
Imagine Line 1 McDavid, Nuge, doesn’t matter
Imagine Line 2 Hall, Drai, doesn’t matter
Yep we have heard it all, Hall’s stick is too long, he doesn’t shoot enough, he over handles the puck, he passes at the wrong possible time….yep Jersey is very sorry they traded for him, Shero is beyond disappointed with the outcome of this trade.
My favourite team building philosophy is “Find good players, keep them”
Keeping good players is “step one” to the Oilers kicking their addiction to failure
Yamamoto in his draft year, WHL:
1st in U18 5v5 goals
1st in U18 5v5 Primary Points
1st in U18 5v5 eG/60
5th in U18 5v5 eA1/60
Total splits wer
He’s heavy on primary points, heavy on 5v5 offense, and the powerplay that he cashed on ran through him, especially last year before Smith turned into a 5v4 deity.
This yeah his total splits are 37 5v5 points, 12G / / 18 A1 / / 7 A2.
The two guys above him in the WHL who are also 2017 draft picks in 5V5 P1/GP: Kole Lind, Aleksi Heponiemi.
Wilde,
So yeah, kids math is money.
…
Good reading before going through Scott Wheeler’s top 100 is his methodology “scouting guide” article: https://theathletic.com/340878/2018/05/07/wheeler-a-guide-to-scouting-and-evaluating-nhl-draft-prospects/
I’m still fretting over who the good bets are and the Oilers would have 3 rounds of trying even if they shoot their shoe and deal #10, if they didn’t stub their toe on the Montoya trade.
So it’s just the 2nd and 3rd. But still.
Need a good draft here so, so badly.
Great summary on Yamamoto . Still a few questions about his overall impact on the game. Nothing for certain.
Great summary on Jessie. Still questions on Jessie’s overall impact as well. Not a sure bet either which is usually the case at #4, but still, lots of optimism
And today we are talking about the Department of Youth and the long term perspective. But after Kailer and Jessie (on forward) we are all done the conversation. So the list is pretty short on potential impact players . I think we better take the pick at #10
From the Lowetide show this morning,
Scott Cullen postulating that a deal between the Oilers and Carolina might involve Jesse Puljujarvi for Justin Faulk. When prompted by LT to elabotate further, Cullen added that JP and Faulk would form the core of the deal, the principles so to speak. He then added that to round out the deal the Oilers would have to include a sweetener…..the proverbial “2nd round pick”……or something….
This notion went unchallenged on the show……
Are we missing something in terms of the value Justin Faulk holds around the league??
Is Scott Cullen opinion reasonable? of Value?
Personally I dont think Faulk is worth JP. I would have thought the sweetner would be coming to us. But Im an Oilers fan and perhaps over-value Oilers players.
Its got me curious as to what other smart/respected people around the league view as the cost to trade for a Justin Faulk??
Edit: If Cullen thinks that is the ballpark value of Faulk…..Clearly JP is more valuable than the 10th pick……So trading the 10th to get Faulk would be a STEAL for the Oilers…..according to Cullen’s logic
It would be very Oilers for this GM to be actively considering whether to make the Hall trade 2.0 or the Reinhart trade 2.0 and nobody doing anything to stop him.
Wheeler’s list has a BCHLer D at #17.
I like it.
Connor McDavid was ambushed in year one – accident my foot. Yet with Taylor Hall still on the team, the Oilers finished well out of the Playoffs.
The very first year Taylor Hall wasn’t with the Oilers, they made the Playoffs – fairer officiating might have given them more.
In Taylor Hall’s time with the Oilers, prior to McDavid, the Oilers never made the Playoffs.
None of this matters at all. Who the supporting cast is matters most. But one thing matters more – you cannot have two “alpha dogs” on one Team, someone must go. That was why The Trade happened.
Probably Tychonick. Hes in BC junior cause he is going NCAA route.
From Wheeler:
“Some of the same concerns I have about Smith, I share with Addison. Only Smith is a much better defender. ”
He has Addison at 21, and seems to agree that Addison is dynamic offensively.
The problem with Smith is that he should play on the left side as a pro.
There is no such thing as a defensive player who is better on his off side. The tactical advantage is too great.
After reading Wheeler’s take on Svechnikov, I would trade Jesse P. and the no.10 to Carolina for the number 2 if they would take it. He sounds like a sure thing and the perfect compliment for Nuge and McDavid.
Christ.
Any logic that basically says “you can have too many good players” is faulty.
This is nonsense. It depends upon an arbitrary post hoc definition of “alpha” and even if it didn’t flies in the face of countless good teams.
The trade happened because our general manager doesn’t understand that the team that scores more goals then they allow wins.
The trade happened because our general manager doesn’t understand what is involved in scoring and preventing goals.
The trade happened because our general manager is grossly incompetent.
Life is simple.
J-Bo,
Svechnikov’s more like “scores 40 goals on the championship Oiler’s 1B line with Leon” than McDavid and Nuge’s third man.
Cassandra,
“The trade happened because our general manager doesn’t understand that the team that scores more goals then they allow wins.”
IMHO PC does understand this. He is just piss poor at evaluating talent, his own and potential incoming.
Even going back to his Boston days, what trades has he “won”. I know there must be some …. I think
I have Addison No. 20, he’s an excellent prospect for sure. So, you would trade down?
https://lowetide.ca/2018/04/30/the-120-best-players-in-the-2018-draft/
Did you know some guy suggested 512 groups of comp, team and zone start 10 years ago.
His position was all three were critical
Fwd Evp/60 varied from 3.65 to .4
Fwds Goal diff varied from +36 to -33
The poor guy had to suffer attacks over it for years.
Until the silly people started to get it.
As a matter of fact.
Many of his theories were mocked and questioned.
Now all those silly sheep are are getting it.
The poor fellow waits for the masses to catch up on many of his other theories.
Everybody say bah! 😉
Im convinced the Oilers are going to trade for a 2RHD with offense.
Given the need to improve in the here and now balanced with the need to improve through time.
I think/hope the best outcome would be to keep JP, Klefbom, and the 10th IF a player they REALLY want is there at 10.
In this scenario, you are trading the 2019 1st rounder in a package that includes either Ethan Bear or Matt Benning.
Who would play 2RD then – Russell?! Surely we should try to upgrade that position.
bah! 😉
Wilde,
If you don’t understand the term “alpha dog”, use a dictionary.
Ya. I would trade down. Maybe 10OV for zucherello snd the 26OV. Or maybe 10OV for 26OV snd 29OV, plus maybe an older prospect as well. Rangers own both picks. Who knows. I think it’s maybe a unique year to do that kinda thing.
Would have to consider something like this. Help now AND still builds the prospect pipeline
Oh I understand naturopathic feelings-alchemy, I just don’t believe in it.
Crosby, Malkin and Kessel. Which one is the “alpha dog”?
McDavid and Hall were literally roommates. If they could live together I’m sure they could be co-alpha dogs on a team together. Fucking Lemieux and Jagr were able to do it.
Oilers sign Tyler Vesel.
I don’t get it either. I keep hearing that “Hall can’t handle being #2 on a team” but have seen no evidence of such feelings and in fact, hear the opposite. I think it’s just an excuse created by fans to support their “Hall was a problem and had to go” narrative.
Watching the Jets game yesterday and seeing Laine a lot because losing, the impression that came to me was that if Laine had a normal shot, JP is the better palyer. I thought his skating is better, board work, transporting, vision. But that crazy release.
Laine is the trigger guy and is probably told to get open and wait for a pass or whatever, but outside of shooting he’s just as wobbly and needing development or more so. Part of the visual is these kids are very tall and quite gangly still, not exactly graceful yet.
Laine’s legs are as long as Yammer is tall.
While I don’t have the math to back it up, for some reason my gut tells me that drafting an undersized defenceman high in the draft is a much higher risk than, say, taking an undersized forward. It just seems like everyone sees these kids play in junior and thinks they are looking at the next Rafalski or even Ryan Ellis. These guys tend to get huge minutes and loads of PP time in juniors. But I have seen so many undersized but high-scoring CHL d-men – strong skaters all – who could not translate their skillset to the NHL level. Small d-men concern me a lot. I think it is a big risk drafting a small d-man in the first round.
True…which made it maddeing to have him on the 4th line developing. MacT was gong to ruin him.
Thing is, you can see JP developing and maturing. Sometimes his hands need to catch up with his head…sometimes it’s the other way around.
No idea but Kessel is the “hot dog” for sure…..
Touche.
Rangers might be one of the few teams willing to take on a salary dump as part of a trade (depends on how long they are planning on rebuilding).
10 + Sekera for 26 + 2nd?
Im not sure who says no to that. Rangers offloaded a pile of dmen and Oilers could really use 5 mill in cap space. I like Sekera so maybe moving him is not the right time (sell low, again). Russel I dont hate on 3rd pairing but hes an option. Lucic I doubt is tradeable. Kassian would be another option.
Yes the Messie/Gretzky Oilers were and absolute failure, and the Orr/Esposito Bruins were shit too, don’t forget about the Robinson/Lafleur Canadiens….just terrible……just like the Potvin/Trotter Islanders..garbage teams…….. the Yzerman/Lidstom Wings were also a tire fire
I think the fans who compare JP to Yak are just creating a narrative around JP’s counting numbers.
He’s fine and will be much better next year imo.
Also,
Almost everyone experienced a drop individual scoring when they played with Looch last year, including McDavid and Draisaitl.
5v5 pts/60 with and without Looch:
McDavid with Lucic 2.57
McDaivd w/o Lucic 3.44
Drai with Lucic 1.94
Drai w/o Lucic 2.40
JP with Lucic 1.16
JP without Lucic 1.37
Now with JP that time away from Lucic included 234 minutes with none of Lucic, McDavid or Draisaitl where he played with Khaira, Slepy, Letestu, Caggilua etc who dragged scoring as well.
If JP get 2RW with 29 and some non-Lucic LW he will have linemates similar to Rantanen, Pastrnak, and Nylander in their draft +3 years and I bet we see a 5v5 pts/60 over 1.75 and maybe over 2.00
Well, Wheeler certainly didnt have the most glowing review of Smith.
hhmmmmmm…….
If Merkley is avail @ #10, I could see Oilers roll the dice.
Woodguy v2.0,
LUCIC = BOAT ANCHOR
I don’t see any logical reason why the Isles would give up Ho Sang to move up two spots given the total lack of consensus in that area of the draft (and an apparent very long tier).
Merkley is a fascinating prospect.
A JP for Faulk trade also wouldnt make sense from a salary cap point of view unless there were other shoes to drop.
Sekera 5.5
Faulk 4.8
Klefbom 4.1
Larsson 4.1
Russell 4
Nurse ( anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5)
Benning 1.5????
Thats 28 M to 30M for our 7 D men. Nurse is anywhere from $3.5M on a bridge contract to $5.5M on a long term deal.
Add Talbot and Mikko and thats 34.6 to 36.6M
Add McDavid, Drai, RNH, Lucic and the Pouliot buyout and we get to 68.9 up to 70.9.
Strome 3 *****
Kassian 1.95
Rattie 0.8
Khaira 0.675
Aberg 0.65
Caggula 1*****
Puts the Oilers at 77 to 79M
Thats with 19 roster players. We would have to add league minimum contracts to fill out the rest of the roster and hope the cap hits 82M.
I wouldn’t trade Sekera right now. Certainly not as a salary dump. He still has value. It was one injury riddled year.
Kassian isn’t a salary dump either. Yes, $2 mill is an overpayment, but by less than $1 mill. He has a very unique skill set that many teams would be interested in.
I agree with this take. Laine is great at getting in position for the one-timer and a few times a game he will beat the D 1-on-1 to get a shot off. He also has some fire in his game, getting feisty after the whistle. JP is better at transporting the puck and maintaining possession in the offensive zone.
You would expect both players to improve their decision making with time and experience.
It seems crazy to talk about trading JP+ for Faulk. If it happens, and the + is the 10th pick, we better be getting Necas, Lindholm, or Bean coming the other way.
Kotkaniemi
It cost the Islanders picks 35 and 57 to trade up to draft Ho-Sang at 28.
That might be the template.
Crow is best eaten cold! He will surpass all of the above.
He has the heart and the hockey IQ. I hope the fan base is patient when he isn’t an instant success!
I’m not one of the smart people around the league obviously. But when I look at Faulk’s stats I see a guy who is maybe a 3rd pairing with decent PP numbers. Here is Faulks ES (not 5v5) GF-GA for the past 4 years:
14-15: 60-78 (43.48 GF%) 16 primary points, 27 total points on 60 GF
15-16: 47-67 (41.23) 13 primary points, 20 total points on 47 GF
16-17: 52-70 (42.62) 19 primary points, 24 total points on 52 GF (should have traded him here!)
17-18: 56-80 (41.18) 8 primary points, 12 total points on 56 GF (not a typo)
I see a player that has very little impact on the GF and is a big black hole when it comes to GA. His ES GA/60 is 7th of 7 Carolina defensemen, and puts him here on Edmonton’s RD depth chart:
Larsson 2.50 GA/60 (53.64 GF%)
Benning 2.65 GA/60 (51.89 GF%)
Russell 2.75 GA/60 (45.45 GF%)
Faulk 3.36 GA/60 (41.18 GF%)
You could argue that the McDavid effect is boosting our players, so I’ll run the GF% numbers without McDavid:
Larsson 45.61 GF% without McDavid
Benning 45.45 GF% without McDavid
Russell 43.28 GF% without McDavid
Faulk 40.74 GF% without Aho
Faulk 38.64 GF% without Teravainen
BUT, we need PP help and this guy will come in and turn our #1PP (which already has McDavid & Draisaitl) into a barn burner, right? Isn’t that worth Puljujarvi + 2018 2nd and $4.8M cap space which will cost us Klefbom? Well, no. His 2.43 primary points/60 on his on-ice 7.27 GF/60 indicates that he isn’t the primary driver on Carolina’s PP. Ethan Bear could do better, and actually has already: 3.64 primary points/60 on his on-ice 9.12 GF/60 in 1:49 avg TOI/game x 18 games. Faulk’s PP numbers are based on 2:55 avg TOI/game x 76 games.
Schultz brought a 3rd round pick. The Faulk salary dump shouldn’t be more. IF there seems to be a salvageable player there. Or a salary exchange for an unwanted contract.
The Canes mainly need to shift salary out of the D Corp to needs elsewhere. Like the Oilers actually. But they can soon enough.
I’ve decided the target should be Ryan Pulok.
This issue with any sort of trade like that is that we don’t have cap room for it – we need to send multiple millions out in order to acquire a legit 2RD (unless he’s on his ELC).
For example, Ryan Pulok is, in my opinion, a great target. He’s an RFA but will likely be in the $4M range for his next contract – we don’t have the cap space.
I think at the end of the day most pro athletes just want to win. Unless a person is a complete heal things can be managed.
Watching Hall and CMD compete or CMD and Leon on who can get the most done is what great teams have.
Connor of course wins but everyone gets better by it.
YES!
What is your timeline to eat your crow? I can see JP surpassing none of the above in the next 3 years. As an Oilers fan, I hope he does, but Rant & Pasta have 80+ point seasons already. Lofty heights for JP.
Laine’s scoring ability is why I’d push the Canes for a deal around Svechnikov. JP and Yama are great prospects but the Russian lad is a tier above. Having a deadly finisher for one of the two change creating machine centres would be massive IMO, and we aren’t talking 3 years down the road.
It would cost, but special talents are worth it. I do think it would be a bigger deal ideally, would involve Faulk as a motivator and possibly Skinner as a salary dump. Faulk could be traded elsewhere as no movement clauses if necessary to fill another gap, Benning is probably better now.
Creativity, daring and proper assessment can get us the balance pick.
I think it’s the girl in the cutoffs and short T shirt with Scarlet Johansson’s face cropped in.
*chance creating
Connor McDavid floats all boats. I’m still not certain of JP’s offense but he has a shot at winning a job with a ridiculous skill forward. Not saying he’ll ever get to 80 points, but we don’t know his outer marker yet.
Except if Sekera gets back to anywhere near full health, we’ve just massively downgraded the draft pick and traded our (arguably) best d-man and a very important player, for a 2nd round pick.
Somewhat ironic since “alpha dog” isn’t in the dictionary.
You could look at it like Oilers into second round once. NYJ lost in first round once. Pleae troll elsewhere!
In my experience attitude is key to success. For other people I mean.
Immaturity isn’t the same as people with self destructive tendencies. Hoping a guy will turn it around who is good enough to be a top CHL player with a lot of talent, his future basically guaranteed, and can’t control himself in his draft year, I’m not sure that is a solid bet.
When Messier played the money was way different. The world was. For me unless a guy is projecting to be a generational player I’d only take a chance if it’s past the second round.
What Can We Learn – Tampa Bay Lightning
https://canucksarmy.com/2018/05/08/what-can-we-learn-tampa-bay-lightning/
“Al Murray: You know, I tell everybody this every year and I keep my draft lists. One day I’ll put them on eBay or whatever so everybody can believe me. We go by our list. The best player that we feel is going to be the best NHL player is the guy we take. We’re not worried about positioning. We just continue to try to get the best prospects.”
Vesel’s signing was the last signing that HAS to be done before the draft – decision on Muir has to be made before Aug. 15th and while I expect Skinner to be signed shortly after the SC Broncos are hoisting the Memorial Cup (or eliminated enroute) he does not have to be signed this summer.
We have talked about Florida’s situation with Adam Masscherin who goes back into the draft if not signed by June 1st. Anyone have an update on his situation?
Saw that Detroit signed Pope yesterday – what hoping he might pop free.
I had previously asked if there was any sense that Carolina was going to sign Hudson Elynuik out of Spokane before the June 1st deadline. 6’5″ center who was over a ppg (71gp 31g 55a 86pts), albeit as a 20 year old. I would be interested and if he and Yammy are tight, might make sense to try on a trade for a conditional pick. In less than a month Carolina gets nothing.
Similar situation for Anaheim’s Tyler Soy. Not sure that the 6’0″ left hand shot forward ends up as a center or not but his counting numbers in Victoria (66gp 36g 56a 92pts) caught my eye for a 7th rounder, again albeit as a 20 year old. Needs to be signed by Anaheim by June 1st.
Winnipeg is so full of prospects that 5th rounder Jordan Stallard, 6’2″ LHC was a 40-40 man with the Raiders (72gp 44g 47a 91pts). Has to be signed by June 1st, and may simply be waiting until the Jets’ run is over, but wonder if he is looking at a depth chart and thinking he may have an easier path elsewhere?
Question for Swedish Poster, any thoughts on a 2014 7th round Florida draft pick, 6’3″ goaler Hugo Fogerblom, playing with Nybro IF. His numbers look to be as a back-up but 19gp 2.18 GAA and a 9.18 sv% at least caught my attention. Has to sign my June 1st and wondering if you have reason to think there is a player here.
Well my procrastination time is over with.
Many players with amazing point totals See ( Marcel Dionne ) still did not produce a winner! A team is made up of many parts and to win takes some luck and all the parts playing as one! Note how many times the allstar teams won against the Stanley Cup Champins durring the six team league!
Svechnikov compares to Hall and Seguin.
I’d do that deal too.
There were a couple of wingers drafted after Kailer that I think just might suprise a lot of people given a chance!
Is there a picture of him wearing a banana hammock?
I feel that there should be.
Dealing JP for Faulk would IMO be foolish. It would in all liklihood require another player moved re cap issues. Faulk appears to have lost a step. JP is still trending up! This would be worse than the Hall for Larson trade times 10!
He won’t fall to 10.
C’s are too valuable.
He’s the reason this draft has gone from a “top 9” to a “top 10” draft.
Unless someone throws Peter a crazy deal there is almost no scenario where trading the pick makes sense.
Alas, he’s Peter and is working for his job so who knows.
I don’t dislike Pulock.
Not worth 10 though.
Woodguy v2.0,
You win best reply of the blog today! Wisser hood clap!!!
God remember that? What a nutso century.
http://coveredinoil.blogspot.ca/2007/04/why-hell-not-schremp-called-up.html
If the Oil value goal metrics as some have suggested, maybe we don’t need to worry about an overpay for Faulk?
The potential deals being thrown around are terrifying, but this gives me a little hope.
Berggren’s hard to get a read on.
Wheeler’s got him at #20.
Kournianos has talked about him.
Pronman’s talked about him.
SwedishPoster likes him.
But he’s gone from 24th->30th in NHL EU skaters from midterm to finals.
Here are the 24th to 30th EU skaters last year and where they were drafted.(Some fucking excellent names in here, guys):
24th – Hugg / / undrafted
25th – Lindstrom / / 38th
26th – Galvas / / 150th
27th – Volkov / / 48th
28th – Altyburmakyan(what?) / / 70th
29th – Skorikov(SCOREIKOV!!) / / undrafted
30th – Geisser / / 120th
How is he an improvement on Matt Benning for 3rd pairing RD? The Oilers are not lacking in 3rd pairing D.
Also, I don’t know about you guys but shift-by-shifts are my favourite prospect videos. Here’s one for my #10 pick, Joel Farabee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWEQFnJJ4cY
I dont know what you mean?
I wonder if you know how funny ‘wizzer’ hood clap is referring to a banana hammock is, awesome.
Wondering what you think of Tory Krug. There is some chatter the Bruins may move him to create balance.
Leftie, not much help for the google guys.
If JP gets 80 points in 1 season I will gladly eat crow (this thread is proof) … 80 Points now a days is rare air. Leon got 77 on his wing. I am sure McD will have an 80 point winger sooner rather than later, just not convinced its JP
Or the Oilers ha
The 10th to Philadelphia for the 19th & Nicolas Aube-Kubel – who scored 17 5v5 goals in the AHL at age 21.
Whoa – I never said that it should be for the 10th – just that Pulok should be the target acquisition.
I mentioned this trade idea a couple of weeks back. I have Svech as the best prospect in this draft.
What if the draft was moved to after free agency like in football? Say Draft on July 4. Might make GMs a little more panicked to trade.And it would give the media a little more to talk about during the dead time instead of the standard interview about how happy the player is to be drafted, and how this is jut the beginning.
Redundant skills on this roster.
No logical reason to trade for him.
Order up!
I hope you’re wrong! 😉
Quite a few of the lists I’ve seen have Kotkaniemi outside the top-9, so there’s hope. Of course, Chairelli will just trade the pick and we’ll be left watching a great prospect fall to #10 on draft day, making all of our speculation redundant.
Then after said prospect succeeds, the org will put out a memo saying they would have drafted someone else, and half the fans will call it hindsight to say we should have drafted him. Rinse and repeat until Connor retires.
He’s not – he’s an improvement on Kris Russell for the 2nd pairing.
Wasn’t thinking of him as an option for the Oilers. Just want to get the D guru’s take on him.
Am I missing something or does Olofsson have the same-ish draft year stats as Filip Forsberg in the Allsvenskan?
Olofsson:
10 G – 11 A – 21 P / / 43 GP
Forsberg:
8 G – 9 A – 17 P / / 43 GP
Half year younger, but still.
Gee whiz, jtblack chums the water and the school of barracuda takes the bait today.
I agree the points comparison was asinine and should be called out. That said I am confused by some posts that are still trying to justify the trade based on turnovers/line changes/alpha ego intangibles and playoff results. I get what Chia was trying to do, but it was not a Johansen for Jones type result.
I was a vocal critic of the Montoya deal when it was made. I don’t understand why an unproven backup option gets 2.5m when this team is so tight against the cap.
Puljujarvi has much more offensive zone IQ than Yak did. He finds the front of the net much better. He will be a good one, but will be unlikely to match Rantanen or Pastrnak in scoring results.
I don’t trade for Faulk, nor Hoffman. The salary does not work.
I would be very interested in Svechnikov, and I would be willing to shock the hockey world to do it. Draisaitl and Yamamoto for Aho, Svechnikov, Pesce.
Trade one of the leftorium for a strong 3rd line C.
Sign Aho to 8 x 6m and run him at 2C with Puljujarvi.
This strikes me as fairly lopsided in our favour:
1RW
Franchise Winger
1RD
for
Franchise Centre
2RW
That’s the idea. It’s based on the premise that big franchise Cs are the most coveted players in the game. There is no Draisaitl for Carolina to draft this year at number 2. They already have skill on the wings but lack a true 1C.
This is taking advantage of their desire to land one.
NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),
Has anyone noticed that Aho has 4 goals and 7 assists in 3 games at the World Championships ? This comes after a big year in Carolina.
I doubt that Carolina would have any interest in trading him.
I’ve been an Aho fan since before he was drafted. The gold helmet thing and all and I nabbed him in my keeper league two season ago. Yes, noticed it certainly. I don’t have interest in trading Draisaitl, either, and neither should the Oilers.
That said,
Draisaitl > Aho, especially to a team starved for a franchise centre.
Oilers may need to add a 3rd asset, though, to make it worthwhile for Carolina. But I am tired of losing deals and trading for Faulk is not the answer.
Do you yourself personally agree with this premise? I know that’s irrelevant to the hypothetical which involves minds not our own, but I think this is a blind spot in NHL hockey men.
Svechnikov is the category of winger that turns a random top ~60 centreman and another random guy into a toughs-slaying 1line.
As a prospect, but yeah.
He’s at a primary point per game 5v5.
what type of shit dictionary are you using that has “alpha dog” listed and defined?
For those who are unaware.. http://www.urbandictionary.com is very loosely considered a dictionary at all..
I watched the movie Alpha Dog. It was mediocre at best. I would consider both McDavid and Hall far superior.
I’m just wondering if you could explain this to me? Show me some evidence that this is because of the trade?
I honestly wonder if you are a troll man. You can’t really believe this kind of shit can you?
Oh, I absolutely think Svechnikov is the real deal. At his floor I see him as Ehlers’ level production. His ceiling might be a PPG + top line wing, and that’s without the McDavid factor.
I do believe that building down the middle is important. In a vacuum, with similar abilities, a top line C is worth more than a top line W.
That said, I do believe that yes, there is a blindspot among some NHL GMs, that Cs have MUCH more value.
I don’t know that Carolina is in that situation–BUT–they have all the makings of a team that potentially could be taken advantage of:
This year they should have been in the playoffs–their rebuild, with all the young talent on the blue line, has gone slower than expected. They have had some bad 1st round draft misses:
Lindholm over Monahan
Fleury over Ehlers and Nylander
Hanifin over Provorov and Werenski
Jake Bean one pick before McAvoy, etc.
They have missed the playoffs 9 years running, and in a non-traditional hockey market, with recent rumblings about relocation.
A ‘GM by committee” type random situation.
They are trying to make Aho their 1C, and maybe he can do it, but Draisaitl is really the player they are lacking most.
I’d at least be kicking the tires and seeing what they have to offer.
Would adding the 10th overall to the mix seal the deal?
Drai, 10th, Yamamoto
for
Aho, 2nd, Pesce
Still favours the Oilers, but less so.
Yes, that’s a balanced version imo, and yes I would also be kicking tires on it for sure.
Notice how Yzerman and Poile were in on Karlsson?
You just have to be in on anything that involves elite talent, everything. There’s so little opporunity to get it.
…
Side note: Dudley’s trade record isn’t terrible from his Atlants days. Got Byf and Wheeler.
More of the same from Stuart Skinner – stops 37 of 39 in a 3-2 Broncos OT win. Great stuff.
No shit eh?
Will have a look.
Don’t know the player well.
Small correction: Pesce is not a 1RD any more than Russell is a 2RD. He scores an average of 3 goals per season – picture Adam Larrson without the nasty streak and the physicality.
I don’t see Carolina doing this and frankly they don’t need to.
Carolina is just fine at the center ice position. They have Staal, who can handle the tough match ups, and they have Aho. They can also use Lindholm as 3C if they choose to.
What they need is more goals. Adding Svechnikov should help. He and Aho are each capable of scoring as many goals as Drai.
If you want to use Drai as trade bait you need to find a team that desperately needs a center and is willing to overpay. Montreal is the first one that comes to mind for me.
What makes Montreal interesting as a trade partner is that their two biggest needs are the Oilers two biggest strengths. Center and LD.
Also Montreal has an abundance of left shot wingers and an interesting RD prospect in Joulsen.
3 points in 23 games, on top of poor AHL numbers, on top of poor WHL numbers gives me near-zero interest in Juulsen. He’s hugely overrated, IMO. I wouldn’t trade Bear for him straight up. He’s a by-line throw-in in any sort of Draisaitl trade.
I’m not suggesting we trade Drai for Juulsen. I’m simply pointing out that the 2 teams needs and strengths appear to line up. That is the first step in any possible trade scenario. A lot of posters here seem to skip that step.
Also I think Juulsen is a better prospect than you are giving him credit for. Is it all about scoring for you? Or are there other numbers that show him bad?
Logic would say Carolina does not do it. But sometimes GMs overvalue certain player types.
Staal is a fine 2C. Lindholm has not lived up to the billing yet and is not a 1C. Aho may wind up being a C but is only proven as a W so far.
Let’s then look at what you say about both teams’ needs being important. What does Montreal have that Edmonton wants?
A RHD of Pesce’s calibre at a longterm cost controlled cap hit? Nope. A Svechnikov calibre winger? Nope
So?
I would say the biggest thing Montreal has that Edmonton wants is a scoring winger. Whether that is Paciorretty, Galchenyuk, Sherback or Zadina. Maybe a deal could be worked around a left dman from Edmonton for 1 or more of these pieces.
They would have to build quite a package for Drai. Something like 3OV, Pacioretty, Poeling and Juulsen. I don’t think Edmonton should do it but that’s probably what it would look like
– Pacioretty has one year left on his deal and will be 30 1 month into next season
– Galchenyuk scores at exactly the same rate as Nugent-Hopkins, not sure I’d call him a “scoring winger”
– Scherbak is considered a goal scorer by some scouting reports, but 5 goals in 27 NHL games, 27 in 140 AHL games and 55 in 130 WHL games doesn’t strike me as particularly productive.
– Zadina would be a “#10 + prospect” play, not something involving Draisaitl.
All of the players I listed are potential scoring wingers for Edmonton. The cost to acquire would vary, although I don’t see you getting 3OV for 10OV plus a prospect.
The biggest difference between JP and Nylander and Rantanan, is that they each played more game in the AHL and I guarantee you they had much more ice time and in more offensive situations and more pp time. The inability for the AHL coaches to give quality prospects the ice time required to properly develop them has been a major issue for the Oilers. This is the biggest reason I support Woodcroft as the new head coach down there. Offensive prospects need to be put in offensive situations while developing on the farm. Rantanan played 1st line in the AHL and Nylander did for most of his AHL time as well. Puljujarvi played 3rd line minutes and barely any PP time, its no wonder he hasn’t developed the offensive part of his game.
I believe Puljujarvi will take a decent step forward next year and would consider 18 goals and 40 pts to be a very solid season and would set him up to be in the 60 pt range the year after that.