There will be internal solutions to roster problems for the Oilers this season, it’s just that we can’t seem to agree on any of them. We have a series of factions, which include the “Kailer Yamamoto should play a FIFTH junior season” the “Ty Rattie isn’t a real solution group” and the church of “the coach hates Jesse Puljujarvi” camps. Instead of arguing October, let’s have a look at the long term.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.
- New Lowetide: It was a tough season for Oscar Klefbom.
- New Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse delivered a strong season for the Oilers.
- New Scott Wheeler: Final Draft Rankings 2018.
- Lowetide: Predicting the late June trade that will flummox Oilers fans this summer
- Lowetide: Ty Smith a quality fit for the Oilers at No. 10 overall.
- Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s pick at No. 10 has great value.
- Lowetide: Woodcroft walks the streets of Bakersfield
- Lowetide: The Oilers and Mikko Koskinen.
- Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers and the WHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
KAILER YAMAMOTO
One of the things we can’t agree on is Kailer Yamamoto. If we compare him to Jordan Eberle, the two men marched in lock step until Yamamoto’s final junior season (and even then he finished 1.93 per game after December 31 by going 27, 19-33-52).
Yamamoto should flourish in Bakersfield and I think there’s a good chance he has success in the NHL from the start. Although he’s undersized, his quickness allows him to dart in and out of situations and grab the puck. He doesn’t need to carry the puck to be effective, is an expert passer and can find open lanes and clean air. He has to play with a skill center, to me that means Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl.
- Maroon-McDavid-Yamamoto: 58 minutes, 64.6 Corsi for 5×5, 1-3 GF, Expected GF percentage 66. Via Corsica.
The McDavid-Yamamoto combination didn’t cash but the trio (with Maroon) tilted the ice and should have scored six instead of one based on expectation. It would behoove the coach to try McDavid-Yamamoto again.
JESSE PULJUJARVI
Interesting to look at these players who have compared closely to JP at one time or another. His draft year is close (and in the same league) to Rantanen; his second year resembles Nylander’s (AHL time). Last year? He was a behind all three but scored well enough to project as an NHL regular at 20. Will he score 15 goals? 20? Here are the draft +3 seasons for the three men listed above:
- Mikko Rantanen 81, 29-55-84
- David Pastrnak 75, 34-36-70
- William Nylander 81, 22-39-61
Each man played with terrific skill and we don’t know where JP is going to land on next year’s roster. That said, even if he doesn’t manage to reach the heights reflected here, a 15-to-20 goal season seems manageable as a projection.
Zadina said he couldn't believe it when #Habs moved up to 3. Felt that his dream of playing in MTL could come true. Says MTL likes him and he wants to be there. Convinced he can make a big difference. Isn't afraid of the media pressure.
— Habs Chronicle (@HabsChronicle) May 8, 2018
I believe the Oilers will pick a forward (Kotkaniemi, Veleno, someone in that range) or deal the selection. The team has several youngsters on blue bubbling under, suspect the addition on blue this summer comes via the trade market.
WHEELER’S TOP 100 FOR 2018
Scott Wheeler dropped his final Top 100 for the 2018 draft today, it’s a terrific overview of the draft class with original (and well written) rankings. As a draft fan, I want to know why (as an example) Wheeler values Joe Veleno over Akil Thomas. He is concise and gives a very good overview of each player. Recommended read and good to bookmark for draft day. One curio: Jack McBain. Because he plays outside the established junior leagues, there’s a vagueness about him. Wheeler does a great job of describing him and what can be expected after draft day.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning with much to discuss, TSN1260 starting at 10. Scheduled to appear:
- Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Darnell Nurse: his season, his next contract and his ideal partner.
- Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. A classic series should include a Game 7 and we have one later this week in Nashville.
- Scott Cullen, TSN. Scott’s Offseason Game Plan’s for all 31 teams has begun. In his Carolina Hurricanes piece, he had them acquiring Jesse Puljujarvi from the Oilers for Justin Faulk. We’ll discuss.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
The biggest difference between JP and Nylander and Rantanan, is that they each played more game in the AHL and I guarantee you they had much more ice time and in more offensive situations and more pp time. The inability for the AHL coaches to give quality prospects the ice time required to properly develop them has been a major issue for the Oilers. This is the biggest reason I support Woodcroft as the new head coach down there. Offensive prospects need to be put in offensive situations while developing on the farm. Rantanan played 1st line in the AHL and Nylander did for most of his AHL time as well. Puljujarvi played 3rd line minutes and barely any PP time, its no wonder he hasn’t developed the offensive part of his game.
I believe Puljujarvi will take a decent step forward next year and would consider 18 goals and 40 pts to be a very solid season and would set him up to be in the 60 pt range the year after that.
All of the players I listed are potential scoring wingers for Edmonton. The cost to acquire would vary, although I don’t see you getting 3OV for 10OV plus a prospect.
– Pacioretty has one year left on his deal and will be 30 1 month into next season
– Galchenyuk scores at exactly the same rate as Nugent-Hopkins, not sure I’d call him a “scoring winger”
– Scherbak is considered a goal scorer by some scouting reports, but 5 goals in 27 NHL games, 27 in 140 AHL games and 55 in 130 WHL games doesn’t strike me as particularly productive.
– Zadina would be a “#10 + prospect” play, not something involving Draisaitl.
I would say the biggest thing Montreal has that Edmonton wants is a scoring winger. Whether that is Paciorretty, Galchenyuk, Sherback or Zadina. Maybe a deal could be worked around a left dman from Edmonton for 1 or more of these pieces.
They would have to build quite a package for Drai. Something like 3OV, Pacioretty, Poeling and Juulsen. I don’t think Edmonton should do it but that’s probably what it would look like
Logic would say Carolina does not do it. But sometimes GMs overvalue certain player types.
Staal is a fine 2C. Lindholm has not lived up to the billing yet and is not a 1C. Aho may wind up being a C but is only proven as a W so far.
Let’s then look at what you say about both teams’ needs being important. What does Montreal have that Edmonton wants?
A RHD of Pesce’s calibre at a longterm cost controlled cap hit? Nope. A Svechnikov calibre winger? Nope
So?
I’m not suggesting we trade Drai for Juulsen. I’m simply pointing out that the 2 teams needs and strengths appear to line up. That is the first step in any possible trade scenario. A lot of posters here seem to skip that step.
Also I think Juulsen is a better prospect than you are giving him credit for. Is it all about scoring for you? Or are there other numbers that show him bad?
3 points in 23 games, on top of poor AHL numbers, on top of poor WHL numbers gives me near-zero interest in Juulsen. He’s hugely overrated, IMO. I wouldn’t trade Bear for him straight up. He’s a by-line throw-in in any sort of Draisaitl trade.
I don’t see Carolina doing this and frankly they don’t need to.
Carolina is just fine at the center ice position. They have Staal, who can handle the tough match ups, and they have Aho. They can also use Lindholm as 3C if they choose to.
What they need is more goals. Adding Svechnikov should help. He and Aho are each capable of scoring as many goals as Drai.
If you want to use Drai as trade bait you need to find a team that desperately needs a center and is willing to overpay. Montreal is the first one that comes to mind for me.
What makes Montreal interesting as a trade partner is that their two biggest needs are the Oilers two biggest strengths. Center and LD.
Also Montreal has an abundance of left shot wingers and an interesting RD prospect in Joulsen.
Small correction: Pesce is not a 1RD any more than Russell is a 2RD. He scores an average of 3 goals per season – picture Adam Larrson without the nasty streak and the physicality.
Will have a look.
Don’t know the player well.
No shit eh?
More of the same from Stuart Skinner – stops 37 of 39 in a 3-2 Broncos OT win. Great stuff.
Yes, that’s a balanced version imo, and yes I would also be kicking tires on it for sure.
Notice how Yzerman and Poile were in on Karlsson?
You just have to be in on anything that involves elite talent, everything. There’s so little opporunity to get it.
…
Side note: Dudley’s trade record isn’t terrible from his Atlants days. Got Byf and Wheeler.
Oh, I absolutely think Svechnikov is the real deal. At his floor I see him as Ehlers’ level production. His ceiling might be a PPG + top line wing, and that’s without the McDavid factor.
I do believe that building down the middle is important. In a vacuum, with similar abilities, a top line C is worth more than a top line W.
That said, I do believe that yes, there is a blindspot among some NHL GMs, that Cs have MUCH more value.
I don’t know that Carolina is in that situation–BUT–they have all the makings of a team that potentially could be taken advantage of:
This year they should have been in the playoffs–their rebuild, with all the young talent on the blue line, has gone slower than expected. They have had some bad 1st round draft misses:
Lindholm over Monahan
Fleury over Ehlers and Nylander
Hanifin over Provorov and Werenski
Jake Bean one pick before McAvoy, etc.
They have missed the playoffs 9 years running, and in a non-traditional hockey market, with recent rumblings about relocation.
A ‘GM by committee” type random situation.
They are trying to make Aho their 1C, and maybe he can do it, but Draisaitl is really the player they are lacking most.
I’d at least be kicking the tires and seeing what they have to offer.
Would adding the 10th overall to the mix seal the deal?
Drai, 10th, Yamamoto
for
Aho, 2nd, Pesce
Still favours the Oilers, but less so.
I’m just wondering if you could explain this to me? Show me some evidence that this is because of the trade?
I honestly wonder if you are a troll man. You can’t really believe this kind of shit can you?
what type of shit dictionary are you using that has “alpha dog” listed and defined?
For those who are unaware.. http://www.urbandictionary.com is very loosely considered a dictionary at all..
I watched the movie Alpha Dog. It was mediocre at best. I would consider both McDavid and Hall far superior.
Do you yourself personally agree with this premise? I know that’s irrelevant to the hypothetical which involves minds not our own, but I think this is a blind spot in NHL hockey men.
Svechnikov is the category of winger that turns a random top ~60 centreman and another random guy into a toughs-slaying 1line.
As a prospect, but yeah.
He’s at a primary point per game 5v5.
I’ve been an Aho fan since before he was drafted. The gold helmet thing and all and I nabbed him in my keeper league two season ago. Yes, noticed it certainly. I don’t have interest in trading Draisaitl, either, and neither should the Oilers.
That said,
Draisaitl > Aho, especially to a team starved for a franchise centre.
Oilers may need to add a 3rd asset, though, to make it worthwhile for Carolina. But I am tired of losing deals and trading for Faulk is not the answer.
NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),
Has anyone noticed that Aho has 4 goals and 7 assists in 3 games at the World Championships ? This comes after a big year in Carolina.
I doubt that Carolina would have any interest in trading him.
That’s the idea. It’s based on the premise that big franchise Cs are the most coveted players in the game. There is no Draisaitl for Carolina to draft this year at number 2. They already have skill on the wings but lack a true 1C.
This is taking advantage of their desire to land one.
This strikes me as fairly lopsided in our favour:
1RW
Franchise Winger
1RD
for
Franchise Centre
2RW
Gee whiz, jtblack chums the water and the school of barracuda takes the bait today.
I agree the points comparison was asinine and should be called out. That said I am confused by some posts that are still trying to justify the trade based on turnovers/line changes/alpha ego intangibles and playoff results. I get what Chia was trying to do, but it was not a Johansen for Jones type result.
I was a vocal critic of the Montoya deal when it was made. I don’t understand why an unproven backup option gets 2.5m when this team is so tight against the cap.
Puljujarvi has much more offensive zone IQ than Yak did. He finds the front of the net much better. He will be a good one, but will be unlikely to match Rantanen or Pastrnak in scoring results.
I don’t trade for Faulk, nor Hoffman. The salary does not work.
I would be very interested in Svechnikov, and I would be willing to shock the hockey world to do it. Draisaitl and Yamamoto for Aho, Svechnikov, Pesce.
Trade one of the leftorium for a strong 3rd line C.
Sign Aho to 8 x 6m and run him at 2C with Puljujarvi.
Am I missing something or does Olofsson have the same-ish draft year stats as Filip Forsberg in the Allsvenskan?
Olofsson:
10 G – 11 A – 21 P / / 43 GP
Forsberg:
8 G – 9 A – 17 P / / 43 GP
Half year younger, but still.
Wasn’t thinking of him as an option for the Oilers. Just want to get the D guru’s take on him.
He’s not – he’s an improvement on Kris Russell for the 2nd pairing.
Then after said prospect succeeds, the org will put out a memo saying they would have drafted someone else, and half the fans will call it hindsight to say we should have drafted him. Rinse and repeat until Connor retires.
I hope you’re wrong! 😉
Quite a few of the lists I’ve seen have Kotkaniemi outside the top-9, so there’s hope. Of course, Chairelli will just trade the pick and we’ll be left watching a great prospect fall to #10 on draft day, making all of our speculation redundant.
Order up!
Redundant skills on this roster.
No logical reason to trade for him.
What if the draft was moved to after free agency like in football? Say Draft on July 4. Might make GMs a little more panicked to trade.And it would give the media a little more to talk about during the dead time instead of the standard interview about how happy the player is to be drafted, and how this is jut the beginning.
I mentioned this trade idea a couple of weeks back. I have Svech as the best prospect in this draft.
Whoa – I never said that it should be for the 10th – just that Pulok should be the target acquisition.
The 10th to Philadelphia for the 19th & Nicolas Aube-Kubel – who scored 17 5v5 goals in the AHL at age 21.
Or the Oilers ha
If JP gets 80 points in 1 season I will gladly eat crow (this thread is proof) … 80 Points now a days is rare air. Leon got 77 on his wing. I am sure McD will have an 80 point winger sooner rather than later, just not convinced its JP
Leftie, not much help for the google guys.
Wondering what you think of Tory Krug. There is some chatter the Bruins may move him to create balance.
I wonder if you know how funny ‘wizzer’ hood clap is referring to a banana hammock is, awesome.
I dont know what you mean?
Also, I don’t know about you guys but shift-by-shifts are my favourite prospect videos. Here’s one for my #10 pick, Joel Farabee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWEQFnJJ4cY
How is he an improvement on Matt Benning for 3rd pairing RD? The Oilers are not lacking in 3rd pairing D.
Berggren’s hard to get a read on.
Wheeler’s got him at #20.
Kournianos has talked about him.
Pronman’s talked about him.
SwedishPoster likes him.
But he’s gone from 24th->30th in NHL EU skaters from midterm to finals.
Here are the 24th to 30th EU skaters last year and where they were drafted.(Some fucking excellent names in here, guys):
24th – Hugg / / undrafted
25th – Lindstrom / / 38th
26th – Galvas / / 150th
27th – Volkov / / 48th
28th – Altyburmakyan(what?) / / 70th
29th – Skorikov(SCOREIKOV!!) / / undrafted
30th – Geisser / / 120th
If the Oil value goal metrics as some have suggested, maybe we don’t need to worry about an overpay for Faulk?
The potential deals being thrown around are terrifying, but this gives me a little hope.
God remember that? What a nutso century.
http://coveredinoil.blogspot.ca/2007/04/why-hell-not-schremp-called-up.html
Woodguy v2.0,
You win best reply of the blog today! Wisser hood clap!!!
I don’t dislike Pulock.
Not worth 10 though.
He won’t fall to 10.
C’s are too valuable.
He’s the reason this draft has gone from a “top 9” to a “top 10” draft.
Unless someone throws Peter a crazy deal there is almost no scenario where trading the pick makes sense.
Alas, he’s Peter and is working for his job so who knows.
Dealing JP for Faulk would IMO be foolish. It would in all liklihood require another player moved re cap issues. Faulk appears to have lost a step. JP is still trending up! This would be worse than the Hall for Larson trade times 10!
Is there a picture of him wearing a banana hammock?
I feel that there should be.
There were a couple of wingers drafted after Kailer that I think just might suprise a lot of people given a chance!