Bridge of Sighs

Drake Caggiula was pursued by many NHL teams in the days after his college career ended. Philadelphia general manager Ron Hextall:  “He’s got speed, he plays hard, he has a lot of good attributes.  He’s got a shot at being a top six (player) based on his ability. He’s not the biggest player, but he plays hard.” Oilers got him and two years later we’re not quite sure what that means.

THE ATHLETIC!

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DRAKE CAGGIULA

If we’re building a top 6F, it’s pretty easy to name three: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. After that? Well hell, that’s the problem. If you use money and draft pedigree, then Milan Lucic, Jesse Puljujarvi and Ryan Strome are the internal fixes. Life doesn’t work that way and there’s a chance none of those three names will be part of the solution.

Caggiula’s numbers are poor, his 5×5 points-per-60 in 2017-18 ranked him No. 294 among 367 forwards who have played over 500 minutes last year. He’ll be 24 in June, scored one more goal than Jesse Puljujarvi at age 19.

The one thing you can say about him that may imply there’s more to give? He has been injured in both seasons and played out of position (center) for a prolonged period in year one. Hextall said he had a shot at top 6F, here are his numbers (over two seasons) with the centers three:

  • With Connor McDavid: 8 points in 213:40 (2.25 points per 60)
  • With Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 5 points 157:32 (1.90 points per 60)
  • With Leon Draisaitl: 5 points in 253:52 (1.18 points per 60)

Who knows, maybe Caggiula gets a shot at right wing on the Nuge-McDavid line. I think we have him surrounded as a player and suspect it’s likely we are not looking at a top 6F.

This is officially a fantastic run for Skinner. His playoff numbers (24, 2.21 .931) reflect a career peak and just in time. The Broncos won in 1989 (and won the Memorial Cup) with a team that featured Sheldon Kennedy, Peter Soberlak and Geoff Sanderson. Swift won again in 1993, that team included Tyler Wright. The first Swift Current Broncos WHL team played in 1967-68 and boasted Dave Schultz and Bill Hogaboam.

Peter Chiarelli had two areas to nurture upon arrival in Edmonton, and (not surprisingly) the new general manager chose to feed the NHL team and find ways other than draft picks to stock the prospect shelves. PC has signed some NHLers out of college (Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula) and I do think the drafting has been better since 2015, but agree completely with Wheeler. Among the youngsters who (imo) have a good chance of making it in the NHL: Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones. Among those who are trending in a good way: Kirill Maksimov, Cooper Marody, William Lagesson, Dmitri Samorukov, Filip Berglund, Stuart Skinner.

I would give Keith Gretzky, Bob Green and the scouting staff the full boat in terms of draft picks, especially if they’re strong on a specific player at No. 10 overall.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning and the guest list remains fluid as we approach showtime. At 10, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Jason Rogers, Japers Rink. The time to celebrate is almost over, Washington will face the Lightning this weekend. Can Ovie and the gang keep pushing?
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com and ESPN. Projecting Drake Caggiula into next season based on what we’ve seen so far, plus a preview of a massive Game 7 in Nashville.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Huge game tonight! Plus a quick preview of the semifinals.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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108 Responses to "Bridge of Sighs"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    At my workplace, we have many exotic and expensive fragile parts turn up. One such was in a really quite beautifully constructed 3′ x 4′ 1′ box, double 2″ x 4″ construction. Ready to paint, ideal for a planter. Usually these boxes come on deposit – they’re expensive to build. But not this one. Anyway, my wife and I are ramping up our berry and herb growing, and this box would be perfect for starting plants, and mobile with a pallet jack.

    Usually, the workplace will hold a draw, but the whole room didn’t want it and agreed i could take it. However, some people were absent, and my sense of fairness kicked in and I put on the whiteboard for names to draw. A buddy said, “just take it. If you do this, you’ll have guys that don’t even have a use for it put their names down.”

    He was right. By the end of the day, even guys that said they didn’t want it, that it was useless to them, had put their name in the draw.

    I think the Oilers, both fans and management, are like this. We didn’t particularly need Caggs, but some other teams showed interest, and now here we are.

    In fact, didn’t Vancouver have great interest in Eakins……

  2. jake70 says:

    Jethro Tull:

    I think the Oilers, both fans and management, are like this.We didn’t particularly need Caggs, but some other teams showed interest, and now here we are.

    In fact, didn’t Vancouver have great interest in Eakins……

    I think there may be some PR component to this, and IMO, you can’t blame the organization for that, … hey we got a guy a lot of people want, he chose us, see, guys want to play here…

    O

  3. Cassandra says:

    That twitter feed has some good lines.

    Here is the headline:

    Peter Chiarelli is actively shopping the 10th overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft. https://www.coppernblue.com/2018/5/9/17337712/peter-chiarelli-will-certainly-listen-to-offers-for-the-tenth-overall-pick-nhl-draft-2018?utm_campaign=coppernblue&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

    And comments:

    Nick Kuchta
    ‏ @NSmvlls
    46m46 minutes ago
    Replying to @CopperandBlue

    Cody Ceci says hello!!

    John Spurr
    ‏ @spurzo
    14h14 hours ago
    Replying to @CopperandBlue

    Oilers have traded the 10th overall pick for the 14th overall pick
    4 replies 21 retweets 113 likes
    Bilbs
    ‏ @Straight4TheSun
    14h14 hours ago

    That would still only be their 3rd worst trade in 2 years
    1 reply 4 retweets 104 likes

  4. jtblack says:

    I have been able to watch Skinner in the WHL since he was 15. Glad to see he has taken it up another Level this playoff season. He has “quieted” his game down a lot and looks much more composed.

    5 shutouts so far in the Playoffs. Good Arrows!

  5. Alpine says:

    In retrospect, the warning signs for Caggiula not being much more than bottom six fodder should have been that his college teammates were Boeser and Nick Schmaltz. The Oilers also didn’t take it slow and had him to play centre in the NHL as a rookie. Overhyping and under-developing. Same as always.

  6. Connoreah says:

    LT or others… what are the chances that Chiarelli is looking to move the #10 pick to move up, as opposed to down or out of the first round? IIRC, Carolina is “listening to offers” on the #2 pick and Montreal may want to move down to snag a centerman in Veleno.

    Svechnikov or Zadina (I’d prefer Wahlstrom to Zadina) for the #10 and ___________?

    Is there a realistic name to include here that would both make sense to both teams and be received well by Oilers fans? More importantly, do you think this is even on Chiarelli’s radar as a possible target?

  7. godot10 says:

    Did you leave Caggiula’s Corsi numbers out of your tables to sustain the illusion that he is an NHL quality hockey player?**

    **A rhetorical question.

  8. dustrock says:

    Connoreah:
    LT or others… what are the chances that Chiarelli is looking to move the #10 pick to move up, as opposed to down or out of the first round? IIRC, Carolina is “listening to offers” on the #2 pick and Montreal may want to move down to snag a centerman in Veleno.

    Svechnikov or Zadina (I’d prefer Wahlstrom to Zadina) for the #10 and ___________?

    Is there a realistic name to include here that would both make sense to both teams and be received well by Oilers fans? More importantly, do you think this is even on Chiarelli’s radar as a possible target?

    Guys, every single goddamn year it’s “leaked” that the GM is listening to offers for the pick, whether it’s a #1 pick, the #3 pick, or the #10 pick.

    Why wouldn’t he be listening to offers? It would be foolish not to.

    I understand the fear with Chiarelli’s track record in big trades (and draft trades!), but this information is at “please don’t eat the yellow snow” level for me.

    Now, if the info was “Chiarelli is talking to Carolina about the #10 pick”, or God forbid, “Chiarelli is talking to Garth Snow about the #10 pick”, then we can have an actual conversation.

  9. Connoreah says:

    dustrock,

    Soooo the #10 plus Klefbom for #2 then?

    I kid.

  10. russ99 says:

    We did ourselves no favors guaranteeing NHL ice time to Caggiula when he signed. He needed more time.

    Now that he’s going to RFA and will get a raise, would you keep him or sign an NHL veteran for roughly the same amount that can give us at least an NHL average game on one or both sides of the ice?

    I’d go with the FA. Chiarelli’s blind faith in the 1994s may end up as his biggest mistake.

  11. ArmchairGM says:

    Apropos the conversation yesterday about Merkley, I was watching some highlights last night and noticed Samorukov in some of them. Are they a pairing? Could be beneficial to the Oilers to have two guys play together for several years prior to reaching the AHL.

    Watching those highlights it is immediately apparent that he is a special talent, one that doesn’t come along very often. He may not be the fastest (although close), but his agility is second to none. Maybe Boqvist come close. He sees the ice extremely well, making passes that most others wouldn’t see let alone attempt. He’s a very gifted player, and still young – his August 2000 birthday makes him the second youngest player in the draft (to my knowledge).

    That said, I don’t think I would take him at #10. He is third among OHL defenders for points-per-game, but when you remove his PP points (more than half his total boxcars!!) he drops to 10th. Primary points look good, but he’s obviously not making smart decisions without the puck – he has the skating ability to track any puck-carrier, but something isn’t clicking here. I have not watched him enough to know what his issues are, but they are real.

    He may be available at #40, but I would not be disappointed at all if the Oilers moved the 2nd + something else to move up to 25 or so to can pick him.

  12. McSorley33 says:

    Scott Wheeler with the truth arrow that is going to pierce the heart of a few posters here.

  13. McSorley33 says:

    So, someone is going to spin a yarn at just how valuable #10 is in this , pretty meh draft class?

    Somebody picking in the 20’s is going to be pounding a table to trade up to – #10.

    How much would – you – pay to move up from say 17 to 10?

    Caveat being if someone ahead of us goes rogue…

  14. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Is it categorically wrong to trade a draft pick?

    I say no it isn’t. It does depend on what for. Not for older players unless exceptional like Karlsson etc. Trading down and getting a young good NHL player as the bounty? Depends who is still on the board but could help now and in the future.

    If PC is smart he can also recoup picks when he moves Sekera and Russell. I can understand urgency in getting the NHL team functioning better in the short term because McDavid. If he wasn’t on the team it would be different.

  15. dustrock says:

    McSorley33:
    Scott Wheeler with the truth arrow that is going to pierce the heart of a few posters here.

    What’s that – that the Oilers might have the worst prospect pool in all of hockey? I agree.

  16. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99:
    We did ourselves no favors guaranteeing NHL ice time to Caggiula when he signed. He needed more time.

    Now that he’s going to RFA and will get a raise, would you keep him or sign an NHL veteran for roughly the same amount that can give us at least an NHL average game on one or both sides of the ice?

    I’d go with the FA. Chiarelli’s blind faith in the 1994s may end up as his biggest mistake.

    I know there’s a lot of hate here for the Drake, but why would you get rid of a kid who just scored 13 goals and has less than 150 games of experience? Of all the young players in the league, is he the only one with no hope of improving defensively?

  17. Dustylegnd says:

    dustrock
    umm didn’t LT mention something very specific about a MSM member publishing speculation about the #10 and a sweetener for Faulk…or did I miss your sarcasam

  18. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Is it categorically wrong to trade a draft pick?

    I say no it isn’t. It does depend on what for. Not for older players unless exceptional like Karlsson etc. Trading down and getting a young good NHL player as the bounty? Depends who is still on the board but could help now and in the future.

    If PC is smart he can also recoup picks when he moves Sekera and Russell. I can understand urgency in getting the NHL team functioning better in the short term because McDavid. If he wasn’t on the team it would be different.

    When you are NOT a Stanley Cup contender, it is wrong 90% of the time. When you are a non-playoff team, it is wrong 99% of the time.

    The only reason in normal circumstances to trade a #1 pick is if it is a move that one believes leads to contention for a Stanley Cup immediately. Where the potential reward is huge and immediate.

    It is lunacy most of the time for a non-playoff team to trade away their #1 pick. There are other ways to get players and fill holes without stealing from the future.

    See Griffin Reinhart.

  19. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: I know there’s
    less than 150 games of experience? Of all the young players in the league, is he the only one with no hope of improving defensively?

    Because he is incompetent defensively. He gives up far more than he gets. He is a poor possession player, and drags everyone down with him.

    He is no longer a prospect.

  20. --hudson-- says:

    russ99:
    We did ourselves no favors guaranteeing NHL ice time to Caggiula when he signed. He needed more time.

    Now that he’s going to RFA and will get a raise, would you keep him or sign an NHL veteran for roughly the same amount that can give us at least an NHL average game on one or both sides of the ice?

    I’d go with the FA. Chiarelli’s blind faith in the 1994s may end up as his biggest mistake.

    No promise was made to Caggiula in his signing. The scary truth is the Oilers didn’t think he needed AHL time, but to be fair he had a good preseason in 2016.

    Source: http://edmontonsun.com/2016/05/07/edmonton-oilers-sign-university-of-north-dakota-product-drake-caggiula/wcm/0dea0b9d-4820-4826-acb3-9b8821e5c813

    “On the surface, there could be a spot for Caggiula on the Oilers third line, with his offensive ability and aggressiveness. If he has spent a few months on the farm in Bakersfield, Calif., that won’t be the end of the world either. He wasn’t guaranteed an Oilers roster spot, but he’s an interesting signing.”

  21. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: When you are NOT a Stanley Cup contender, it is wrong 90% of the time.When you are a non-playoff team, it is wrong 99% of the time.

    The only reason in normal circumstances to trade a #1 pick is if it is a move that one believes leads to contention for a Stanley Cup immediately. Where the potential reward is huge and immediate.

    It is lunacy most of the time for a non-playoff team to trade away their #1 pick.There are other ways to get players and fill holes without stealing from the future.

    See Griffin Reinhart.

    If that trade was for Seth Jones, different story. Is 10 -15 years of Jones more harmful to the future than a 25% chance at 200 games of uncertain quality, or whatever Cullen’s cut off is?

    This is why I said it is not categorically wrong, it depends on the quality of the return.

    Reinhart was a ridiculously bad trade. I don’t trust the Oilers to not screw it up, again, so that is a strong reason to keep it as opposed to the philosophy around it.

    Still there are not many scenarios in which I would trade it.

  22. Oilman99 says:

    JimmyV1965: I know there’s a lot of hate here for the Drake, but why would you get rid of a kid who just scored 13 goals and has less than 150 games of experience? Of all the young players in the league, is he the only one with no hope of improving defensively?

    13 goals for a fourth liner is not bad,with a full injury free season maybe this climbs to 15to20. Give him another year before bailing on the guy, if things don’t progress send him down t o the Bake.

  23. --hudson-- says:

    Dustylegnd:
    dustrock
    umm didn’t LT mention something very specific about a MSM member publishing speculation about the #10 and a sweetener for Faulk…or did I miss your sarcasam

    Not sure if I am following this thread correctly, but I got a good laugh out of Matty on twitter.

    POW
    @NotThatPow
    Boy Matty has some shitty trade ideas holy hell

    Jim Matheson
    @NHLbyMatty
    Always get a kick out of fans who bad-mouth every trade possibility. You got any better ones?
    https://twitter.com/NHLbyMatty/status/993978356092694528

    It seems these are all just made up proposals from Matty, not grounded in any insider information, according to the tweet above. He’s added a few quotes from Craig Button to give it some legitimacy but those proposals are worth as much as a proposal on this blog.

  24. Oilman99 says:

    godot10: When you are NOT a Stanley Cup contender, it is wrong 90% of the time.When you are a non-playoff team, it is wrong 99% of the time.

    The only reason in normal circumstances to trade a #1 pick is if it is a move that one believes leads to contention for a Stanley Cup immediately. Where the potential reward is huge and immediate.

    It is lunacy most of the time for a non-playoff team to trade away their #1 pick.There are other ways to get players and fill holes without stealing from the future.

    See Griffin Reinhart.

    This is where keeping Chia gets really scarey. The guy could put the team deeper in the toilet before he gets flushed.

  25. digger50 says:

    Drake plays fast and with intensity. He brings it every game. Not many others can say that this past season.

    I do thing he was mismanaged of course. Still, there is reason to believe he has been tried and we have seen what he has and what he is. (Only question is will he improve defensively if they switch from man on man coverage in the d zone) Fair.

    At least with Drake an accurate assessment can be made. So keep him in a role he can handle or move e him as long as you are certain you have an upgrade.

    Pretty sure he will be around next season, and if he can improve to 15 goals without giving up 16 goals, that’s a decent depth player.

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Yesterday I was talking about the Condors (mostly out of of my as# in terms of the roster).

    – This article does a good job of laying out what it could actually look like:

    https://thehockeywriters.com/bakersfield-condors-oilers-rebuild/

    – Going from a very poor development system to at least passable is a long process: I’d say we at least have a development pipeline in place now: to use I think Hudson’s sales pipeline analogy.

    – Now we need this pipeline to get filled by the Glengarry leads. Gold ones. Right now our pipeline might not have the gold ones, but at least it’s a pipeline that is filling up.

  27. Brantford Boy says:

    McSorley33,

    Flyers 14&19 for #10 and 2nd or 3rd??? Not sure if this is ‘rogue’ enough for you…

    Some talk about this a few weeks back (when we were still @ #9)… this was posted by Doug McLachlan here:
    https://lowetide.ca/2018/04/20/pet-sounds-3/#comment-737133

    http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

    With his draft math, I did some quick calculations… maybe it helps? It did for me…
    So in essence we have:
    1st round (9) = 596 points
    2nd round (38) = 211 points
    3rd round (69) = 174 points
    for a combined 807 points… (not including 3rd round)

    Philly has:
    1st round (14) = 456 points
    1st round (19) = 364 points
    for a combined 820 points…

  28. sliderule says:

    I thought the last three drafts were not that bad

    The 2015 and 2017 have a lot of players with good arrows and as a number of picks were made on defencemen and goalies which take longer to know what you have.

    I didn’t like the Benson pick but he might end up a player if he can recover from groin injury.

    The two picks lost for compensation hurt and the Reinhart trade really bites .

    The Maksimov pick could make up for a lot of picks that oilers have blown if he keeps on his development trajectory.

  29. --hudson-- says:

    A poster on reddit made these plots of each teams draft performance from 1994-2013. The plots include games played by draft pick, goals & points by pick, average of gp & points by team, and games played by position by team.

    https://imgur.com/a/pvaxeln

    Surprisingly the Oilers are middle of the road in many of these.

  30. Bank Shot says:

    –hudson–:
    A poster on reddit made these plots of each teams draft performance from 1994-2013. The plots include games played by draft pick, goals & points by pick, average of gp & points by team, and games played by position by team.

    https://imgur.com/a/pvaxeln

    Surprisingly the Oilers are middle of the road in many of these.

    I think the GP are bloated by guys like Pouliot and JF Jacques getting way more auditions than they deserved.

    Oilers do seem to have a knack for finding girtty against all odds roleplayers that manage to hang on in the show for a few years. Its just the complete lack of finding any kind of impact players in rounds 3-4+ that have killed them.

  31. --hudson-- says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Yesterday I was talking about the Condors (mostly out of of my as# in terms of the roster).

    – This article does a good job of laying outwhat it could actually look like:

    https://thehockeywriters.com/bakersfield-condors-oilers-rebuild/

    – Going from a very poor development system to at least passable is a long process: I’d say we at least have a development pipeline in place now: to use I think Hudson’s sales pipeline analogy.

    – Now we need this pipeline to get filled by the Glengarry leads.Gold ones.Right now our pipeline might not have the gold ones, but at least it’s a pipeline that is filling up.

    Thanks for sharing, it’s a nice glance at their potential roster. In particular, I liked this quote:
    “Phase one of the Chiarelli era was getting those 2015 selections of Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, and Ziyat Paigin into the AHL. The next phase is getting guys from that 2016 class like Tyler Benson, Filip Berglund, Dylan Wells, Graham McPhee, Aapeli Rasanen, and Vincent Desharnais up.”

    Next season will be time to add from the 2017 picks, all of Skinner, Samorukov, Safin, Maksimov with Yamamoto already set to turn pro this fall.

    Chiarelli has to keep it going with the 2018 draft though, it’s going to be really disappointing if he moves #10 for immediate help. These are the future value contracts or deadline trade bait to be used when we are contending. Not the assets to use to help us scrape into the playoffs and lose out in the first round.

  32. boneshj says:

    –hudson–,

    To be fair though, the Oilers missed the playoffs in 12 of those 20 years including 10 top 10 picks. They should be middle of the road at minimum.

    Those 10 top 10s include: Bonsignore, Smyth, Kelly, Devereaux, Gagner, MPS, Hall, RNH, Yak, Nurse

  33. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    McDavid is having one of ‘those’ games.

  34. Alpine says:

    Bank Shot: I think the GP are bloated by guys like Pouliot and JF Jacques getting way more auditions than they deserved.

    Oilers do seem to have a knack for finding girtty against all odds roleplayers that manage to hang on in the show for a few years. Its just the complete lack of finding any kind of impact players in rounds 3-4+ that have killed them.

    Did Pouliot not deserve as many at bats? Not to beat the most dead horse ever from this blog, but he was a great AHLer and competent enough bottom six player to deserve those chances.

    The really funny thing is most Oiler draft picks since MAP/JFJ have fared much worse in the AHL and didn’t even get close to sniffing the NHL. Pitlick and Khaira are the best of the non-first round group and just now starting to approach Pouliot’s NHL numbers.

  35. Woogie63 says:

    McSorley33:
    Scott Wheeler with the truth arrow that is going to pierce the heart of a few posters here.

    meh

    1C is 21 years old … 8 year contract
    2C is 23 years old …8 year contract
    1LHD 23 years old …. about to sign a long term contract
    2RW 19 year old …. ELC

    if they guys were not studs they could have been bubbling in the AHL and our prospects would be crazy good.

  36. Cassandra says:

    As it stands right now teams systematically undervalue first round picks.

    A first round pick, especially a lottery pick, has a significant chance of producing a very good NHL player that will play at an undervalued contract for as much as a decade. The upside on a first round pick is very large. There is no downside, since the worst thing that can happen is the player doesn’t play. That is a neutral result.

    The player you trade for is supposed to be more certain. But that certainty comes with 1) less upside in both talent and term, and 2) if they already have a contract, significant risk that the player will cost more than they produce.

    Under these conditions you can only really win the trade if the other team makes a mistake by undervaluing the established player. But if you are already trading a first round pick for the player, this means you can only win by trading a first round pick for a player that is a star but the other team doesn’t know is a star.

    There are circumstances where this might work. Maybe Dougie Hamilton or Brayden Schenn. But when it is Hamonic it is a terrible idea.

    And when it is someone who is already on the road to bust like Reinhart, who should have had the value of a 3rd or 4th round pick, it is fireable offense the day the trade is made. Then you get neither upside nor certainty. You lit your pick on fire.

    The day the Reinhart trade was made I said that if you were going to make a terrible trade for an Islander prospect they should have at least gotten Pulock. That still would have been a terrible trade, but at least they would have chosen the guy who was top of their prospect depth chart.

    Now we are talking about trading for Pulock.

  37. Cassandra says:

    Woogie63: meh

    1C is 21 years old … 8 year contract
    2C is 23 years old …8 year contract
    1LHD 23 years old …. about to sign a long term contract
    2RW 19 year old …. ELC

    if they guys were not studs they could have been bubbling in the AHL and our prospects would be crazy good.

    The Leafs have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Mathews, Marner, and Nylander.

    The Flyers have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Provorov, Konetchny, and Patrick.

    The Lightning have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Point and Sergachev, or the trade for Miller and McDonagh.

  38. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Because he is incompetent defensively.He gives up far more than he gets.He is a poor possession player, and drags everyone down with him.

    He is no longer a prospect.

    If the Drake scores 15 goals somewhere and improves defensively with a coach who uses zone defense, the howls of outrage on this site will be deafening. But you’re continual use of absolutes obviously makes you correct in all matters.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nailer Yakumoto:
    McDavid is having one of ‘those’ games.

    Ya, a hatty half way through the game is OK.

  40. Jordan says:

    dustrock: Guys, every single goddamn year it’s “leaked” that the GM is listening to offers for the pick, whether it’s a #1 pick, the #3 pick, or the #10 pick.

    Now, if the info was “Chiarelli is talking to Carolina about the #10 pick”, or God forbid, “Chiarelli is talking to Garth Snow about the #10 pick”, then we can have an actual conversation.

    I have no concerns about discussing the # 10 overall with Carolina – as long as its in pursuit of the #2 overall.

    I am, in general, in agreement with LT – the best way to stock the prospect cupboard is to make picks. Trading them away for current help may help now, but hurts long-term, especially on the cap-side of NHL asset management.

  41. ArmchairGM says:

    –hudson–,
    “Ideally, you’d like a right-shot guy, but I don’t know where they are.”

    I know exactly where they are: in the 2018 entry draft. Asset cost? Absolutely nothing.

  42. godot10 says:

    Oilman99: 13 goals for a fourth liner is not bad,with a full injury free season maybe this climbs to 15to20. Give him another year before bailing on the guy, if things don’t progress send him down t o the Bake.

    He didn’t get his 13 goals playing on the 4th line. He got most of his goals playing with McDavid, while suppressing McDavid’s offensive and defensive play. Those goals are really McDavid’s goals, not Caggiula’s.

  43. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: If the Drake scores 15 goals somewhere and improves defensively with a coach who uses zone defense, the howls of outrage on this site will be deafening. But you’re continual use of absolutes obviously makes you correct in all matters.

    If turkeys could fly…

  44. Woogie63 says:

    Cassandra: The Leafs have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Mathews, Marner, and Nylander.

    The Flyers have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Provorov, Konetchny, and Patrick.

    The Lightning have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Point and Sergachev, or the trade for Miller and McDonagh.

    Mr. Wheeler’s twit felt like click bait. IMO the more balanced story would to point out the strength and wealth of young talent we have on the NHL.
    Would you rather have a 21 year old 2X AHL scoring leader coming to your team OR have a 21 year old 2X Art Ross winner ON your team.

  45. jtblack says:

    Cassandra:
    As it stands right now teams systematically undervalue first round picks.

    A first round pick, especially a lottery pick, has a significant chance of producing a very good NHL player that will play at an undervalued contract for as much as a decade.The upside on a first round pick is very large.There is no downside, since the worst thing that can happen is the player doesn’t play.That is a neutral result.

    The player you trade for is supposed to be more certain.But that certainty comes with 1) less upside in both talent and term, and 2) if they already have a contract, significant risk that the player will cost more than they produce.

    Under these conditions you can only really win the trade if the other team makes a mistake by undervaluing the established player.But if you are already trading a first round pick for the player, this means you can only win by trading a first round pick for a player that is a star but the other team doesn’t know is a star.

    There are circumstances where this might work.Maybe Dougie Hamilton or Brayden Schenn.But when it is Hamonic it is a terrible idea.

    And when it is someone who is already on the road to bust like Reinhart, who should have had the value of a 3rd or 4th round pick, it is fireable offense the day the trade is made.Then you get neither upside nor certainty. You lit your pick on fire.

    The day the Reinhart trade was made I said that if you were going to make a terrible trade for an Islander prospect they should have at least gotten Pulock.That still would have been a terrible trade, but at least they would have chosen the guy who was top of their prospect depth chart.

    Now we are talking about trading for Pulock.

    +1

  46. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woogie63: Mr. Wheeler’s twit felt like click bait.IMO the more balanced story would to point out the strength and wealth of young talent we have on the NHL.
    Would you rather have a 21 year old2X AHL scoring leader coming to your team OR have a 21 year old 2X Art Ross winner ON your team.

    Agreed. So much sky is falling commentary from fans of other teams.

    Oil are 2 players from returning to the playoffs IMO. Depth of oilers prospect system seems to be the best its been in years too, I’d think. Less top end.

  47. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Agreed. So much sky is falling commentary from fans of other teams.

    Oil are 2 players from returning to the playoffs IMO. Depth of oilers prospect system seems to be the best its been in years too, I’d think. Less top end.

    Do you really think so?

    Everything is based on “shoulds” right now….klef should be better, Talbot should be better, seks should be better….

  48. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Agreed. So much sky is falling commentary from fans of other teams.

    Oil are 2 players from returning to the playoffs IMO. Depth of oilers prospect system seems to be the best its been in years too, I’d think. Less top end.

    – A definitive point in time ranking of prospects is not possible. One may have opinions looking at depth but that doesn’t matter

    – as soon as a good team trades away a prospect for immediate help their prospect depth is less

    – some have pointed out that the oilers draft high. Lottery picks aren’t prospects for long

    – it’s true that poInt in time we are probably poor in terms of non nhl playing prospects

    – but for the first time in a long time we actually have drafted players that are going to be slotted into relative important roles in the ahl.

    – that’s something. Rinse repeat and grow the pipleline be it for trading for bringing new players dept balance whatever.

    – We know that historically we have been really really bad at non lottery pick player development. Perhaps slowly we are seeing some progress.

    – and don’t trade the first for immediate help- we aren’t winning the cup next year. Sure trade down and pick up something to do so but get a draft pick.

  49. dustrock says:

    Jordan: I have no concerns about discussing the # 10 overall with Carolina – as long as its in pursuit of the #2 overall.

    I am, in general, in agreement with LT – the best way to stock the prospect cupboard is to make picks.Trading them away for current help may help now, but hurts long-term, especially on the cap-side of NHL asset management.

    Right.

    Then we get into trading Petry for nothing, then trading Hall to get back Petry (Larsson).

    We lose Schultz for nothing, now we’re talking about trading the 10th and/or Klefbom for Schultz (Faulk).

    Drives me crazy.

    I’d honestly prefer another mediocre, non-playoff year, if it meant we kept our 1-3 picks this year and next year.

    Dire straits here.

  50. Richard S.S. says:

    A Players has an off year, maybe a poor year or maybe a bad year. Immediately people believe the Players will not get better, ever. Please consider this. Peak physical potential is reached at 16-18 years of age, after that it’s all downhill, although with better experience. So taking it a step further, no one ever get better past that age at anything.

    Klefbom, Sekera will be healthy/healthier next year with a full offseason to recover. Talbot will play less and shouldn’t tire out as much or as often next year. Even Lucic cannot be worse next year, he will see to that. They SHOULD be better, all reasonable expectations.

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    Woogie63: Mr. Wheeler’s twit felt like click bait.IMO the more balanced story would to point out the strength and wealth of young talent we have on the NHL.
    Would you rather have a 21 year old2X AHL scoring leader coming to your team OR have a 21 year old 2X Art Ross winner ON your team.

    An article comparing players under (say) 25 would be more useful, whether they’re prospects or full-time NHLers.

  52. PennersPancakes says:

    Richard S.S.,

    I totally agree with the second paragraph. Nothing is guaranteed in life, even more so in hockey but I would make all those bets.

    Confused about the 16-18 peak pyshical potential though. Am I missing something because in my mind that is far from true.

  53. McSorley33 says:

    Woogie63,

    meh

    1C is 21 years old … 8 year contract
    2C is 23 years old …8 year contract
    1LHD 23 years old …. about to sign a long term contract
    2RW 19 year old …. ELC

    if they guys were not studs they could have been bubbling in the AHL and our prospects would be crazy good.
    *************************************************
    1C – 1st overall pick
    2C – 3rd overall pick’
    1LHD – 7th overall pick
    2RW- 4th overall pick

    Small list for being one of the worst teams in the NHL in the last decade.

    Anything from the 2nd round or later?

  54. Wilde says:

    Cassandra:

    A first round pick, especially a lottery pick, has a significant chance of producing a very good NHL player that will play at an undervalued contract for as much as a decade.The upside on a first round pick is very large.There is no downside, since the worst thing that can happen is the player doesn’t play.That is a neutral result.

    It’s not a neutral result, because you don’t get a player while your opponent does and there’s the opportunity cost that you could have gotten a player by trading it.

    Agree with most of what you said, though.

    You know what’s bothering me? The argument that making the pick is some kind of “move for the future”.

    It’s a fucking top 10 pick. Are these people even paying attention?

    From the 2015 entry draft, there were twenty-seven players that played a role in their draft+3 many of them also played in 2016-17. Many of them were playing feature roles and succeeding.

    Yes, I know it was a strong draft, but is there really less than ten players in the 2018 crop that will contribute within 2 years?

    You could pick Joel Farabee and have a solution on LW in the fall of 2019.

    You could pick Ty Smith and have a very strong, young third pairing in the fall of 2019.

    There’s 13 guys from the 2016 draft that contributed in their draft +2 this season.

    We have the guy who picked McAvoy at 14 as our head scout, and we’re gonna deal this pick?

    The difference between the record track record of our amateur and pro procurement teams, is incomprehensible. The only above average facet of this organisation is its amateur scouting, just give them some goddamn picks.

    Trade Zack Kassian. Don’t bring back Caggiula. Trim the fat off of this roster until we don’t have to move picks or young players to package away any of the NMC’s, and give them /more/ than seven selections, not less.

  55. McSorley33 says:

    Now, I like some of the guys we have – don’t get me wrong.

    But – this is not something that inspires.

    BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 2017-18 ROSTERS
    # PLAYER POSITION SHOOTS HEIGHT WEIGHT DOB BIRTH PLACE
    2 Ben Betker D L 6-6 225 Sep 29, 1994 Cranbrook, BC
    3 Dillon Simpson D L 6-2 197 Feb 10, 1993 Edmonton, AB
    4 Keegan Lowe D L 6-2 195 Mar 29, 1993 Edmonton, AB
    5 Dmitri Samorukov D L 6-2 185 Jun 16, 1999 Volgograd, Russia
    6 Caleb Jones D L 6-1 205 Jun 6, 1997 Frisco, TX
    7 Cooper Marody C L 190 6-0 Dec 20, 1996 Brighton, MI
    8 Ryan Stanton D L 6-2 205 Jul 20, 1989 St. Albert, AB
    10 Joe Gambardella C L 5-10 201 Dec 6, 1993 Staten Island, NY
    11 Colin Larkin F L 6-3 192 Nov 17, 1993 Waterford, MI
    12 Ryan Hamilton LW L 6-2 225 Apr 15, 1985 Oshawa, ON
    13 Zach O’Brien RW R 5-11 197 Jun 29, 1992 St. John’s, NL
    14 Tyler Vesel C R 5-11 180 Apr 14, 1994 Duluth, MN
    15 Mitch Callahan RW R 6-0 190 Aug 17, 1991 Whittier, CA
    16 Logan Day D R 6-1 215 Sep 19, 1994 Seminole, FL
    17 Joey LaLeggia LW L 5-10 185 Jun 24, 1992 Burnaby, BC
    18 Josh Currie C R 5-11 190 Oct 29, 1992 Charlottetown, PEI
    19 Kyle Platzer C R 6-0 185 Mar 4, 1995 Waterloo, ON
    20 Ryan Mantha D R 6-5 225 Jun 18, 1996 Clarkston, MI
    22 Brad Malone C L 6-1 210 May 20, 1989 Miramichi, NB
    23 Braden Christoffer LW L 5-10 195 Aug 2, 1994 Sherwood Park, AB
    24 Ethan Bear D R 5-11 205 Jun 26, 1997 Ochapowace, SK
    26 Eric Gryba D R 6-4 222 Apr 18, 1988 Saskatoon, SK
    27 David Gust RW R 5-10 174 Feb 21, 1994 Orland Park, IL
    28 Grayson Downing C L 6-0 192 Apr 18, 1992 Abbotsford, BC
    29 Tyler Benson LW L 6-0 201 Mar 15, 1998 Edmonton, AB
    31 Laurent Brossoit G L 6-3 204 Mar 23, 1993 Port Alberni, BC
    32 Ostap Safin RW R 6-5 191 Feb 11, 1999 Prague, Czech Republic
    34 Nick Ellis G L 6-1 180 Jan 18, 1994 Millersville, MD
    36 Patrick Russell RW R 6-1 205 Jan 4, 1993 Holte, Denmark
    37 Ty Loney RW R 6-3 205 Mar 1, 1992 Valencia, PA

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lagesson, Yamamoto, Benson, Berglund, McPhee, Kemp, Rasanen, Skinner

  57. Lowetide says:

    McSorley33:
    Woogie63,

    meh

    1C is 21 years old … 8 year contract
    2C is 23 years old …8 year contract
    1LHD 23 years old …. about to sign a long term contract
    2RW 19 year old …. ELC

    if they guys were not studs they could have been bubbling in the AHL and our prospects would be crazy good.
    *************************************************
    1C – 1st overallpick
    2C –3rd overall pick’
    1LHD – 7th overall pick
    2RW-4th overall pick

    Small list for being one of the worst teams in the NHL in the last decade.

    Anything from the 2nd roundor later?

    One of the things we have to factor in is the fact the first-round pick always heads to the NHL (thus becoming an NHL player as opposed to a prospect). If you look at the Oilers drafting since 2010,the first round has been (mostly) a five-run home run every time.

    No reason to credit the general manager but that is part of the record and has to be accounted for in these conversations.

  58. jeetz says:

    Oilers need a boost. I wonder if a good old Canadian boy like Tavares would be interested in signing here. Then we would have RNH McDavid Tavares Puljijarvi in the top 6.

    Oilers could uses Draisaitl to get the top 1 or 2 pick (franchise winger or defender) AND keep the #10 pick. (Best puck moving defender available)

    Long shot for sure, but is it really impossible? That would be a franchise changing move

  59. who says:

    jeetz:
    Oilers need a boost. I wonder if a good old Canadian boy like Tavares would be interested in signing here. Then we would have RNH McDavid Tavares Puljijarvi in the top 6.

    Oilers could uses Draisaitl to get the top 1 or 2 pick (franchise winger or defender) AND keep the #10 pick. (Best puck moving defender available)

    Long shot for sure, but is it really impossible? That would be a franchise changing move

    Do you really think it would be a good move to give John Tavares a 7 year, 10 million dollar per year contract?
    I think it would be a franchise crippler!
    John Tavares is a great hockey player, but he has never been an elite skater, and that is going to start to affect his overall performance as he moves into his 30’s. I certainly don’t want to pay him 10 million a year till he is 34 years old.
    The Oilers got it right with their star players. They are paying them the big dollars and term through their peak years. Mcdavid will probably warrant another 8 year big money deal because he is such a great skater. But I would not sign Drai to another long term big money deal at the age of 29.

  60. jtblack says:

    what was Darnell’s 5×5 GF-GA? pls

  61. Lowetide says:

    who: Do you really think it would be a good move to give John Tavares a 7 year, 10 million dollar per year contract?
    I think it would be a franchise crippler!
    John Tavares is a great hockey player, but he has never been an elite skater, and that is going to start to affect his overall performance as he moves into his 30’s. I certainly don’t wantto pay him 10 million a year till he is 34 years old.
    The Oilers got it right with their star players. They are paying them the big dollars and term through their peak years. Mcdavid will probably warrant another 8 year big money deal because he is such a great skater. But I would not sign Drai to another long term big money deal at the age of 29.

    A trade of Nuge (or Leon) would have to quickly follow.

  62. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    what was Darnell’s5×5GF-GA?pls

    69-56 +13

  63. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: One of the things we have to factor in is the fact the first-round pick always heads to the NHL (thus becoming an NHL player as opposed to a prospect). If you look at the Oilers drafting since 2010,thefirst round has been (mostly) a five-run home run every time.

    No reason to credit the general manager but that is part of the record and has to be accounted for in these conversations.

    Has any other Franchise drafted at the Optimum Spots Edm has?
    2010 – #1
    2011 – #1
    2012 – #1
    2013- #7
    2014 -#3
    2015 – #1, #16
    2016 – #4
    2017- #22
    2018 -#10

    We may have done fine, but really what GM (fans) would have made different picks? 2010,11,12,14,15 & 16 were pretty much pre determined.

    Not sure what the dialogue was around Nurse @ #7.

  64. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: 69-56 +13

    WOW. Very solid. I saw him as “also in photo often”. But he simply gotus more than he gave up.

    Does Nurse have the capability to play on 2PP?

    I do know he had 26 ES points, which is excellent

  65. pts2pndr says:

    Cassandra: The Leafs have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Mathews, Marner, and Nylander.

    The Flyers have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Provorov, Konetchny, and Patrick.

    The Lightning have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Point and Sergachev, or the trade for Miller and McDonagh.

    Cassandra,

    Talent like beauty for prospects lies n the eye of the beholder!

  66. Wilde says:

    jtblack:
    what was Darnell’s5×5GF-GA?pls

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=EDM&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=82&lines=single

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lagesson, Yamamoto, Benson, Berglund, McPhee, Kemp, Rasanen, Skinner

    Frost, Ratcliffe, Hart, Allison, Lindblom, Sanheim, Morin, Vorobyov, Myers, Aube-Kubel, Friedman

    Vesalainen, Appleton, Niku, Lemeiux, Spacek, Harkins, Petan, Foley (Copp, Poolman, Roslovic)

    Kuokkanen, Gauthier, Foegele, Saarela, Roy, Wallmark, McKeown, Poturalski, Carrick

    There’s about 5 more teams that have more and better prospects on their AHL team than we have in all minor and European leagues combined

  67. pts2pndr says:

    McSorley33:
    Scott Wheeler with the truth arrow that is going to pierce the heart of a few posters here.

    Typical center of the universe trashing everything that is not GTA. With all these smart people at the center of the universe I can not for the life of me figure out how there hasn’t been a Stanley Cup Championship since 1967. Looks like they might set a record after all! Inwonder what the record is for longest time between cups?

  68. RonnieB says:

    pts2pndr,

    pts2pndr,

    I don’t know if it’s the record but the Rangers went 54 years between cups. Toronto is getting close at 51.

  69. pts2pndr says:

    Richard S.S.:
    A Players has an off year, maybe a poor year or maybe a bad year.Immediately people believe the Players will not get better, ever.Please consider this. Peak physical potential is reached at 16-18 years of age, after that it’s all downhill, although with better experience. So taking it a step further, no one ever get better past that age at anything.

    Klefbom, Sekera will be healthy/healthier next year with a full offseason to recover.Talbot will play less and shouldn’t tire out as much or as often next year.Even Lucic cannot be worse next year, he will see to that.They SHOULD be better, all reasonable expectations.

    I believe you are referring to peak sexual performance. Physical peak not so much!

  70. pts2pndr says:

    RonnieB:
    pts2pndr,

    pts2pndr,

    I don’t know if it’s the record but the Rangers went 54 years between cups. Toronto is getting close at 51.

    Tnx! I wonder how Mr Wheeler will spin that one!

  71. pts2pndr says:

    dustrock: Right.

    Then we get into trading Petry for nothing, then trading Hall to get back Petry (Larsson).

    We lose Schultz for nothing, now we’re talking about trading the 10th and/or Klefbom for Schultz (Faulk).

    Drives me crazy.

    I’d honestly prefer another mediocre, non-playoff year, if it meant we kept our 1-3 picks this year and next year.

    Dire straits here.

    Great band!

  72. rope-a-dope says:

    Goalie change? Wow that’s some panic. The goals are absolutely on the team as much as they’re on Rinne.

  73. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra:
    As it stands right now teams systematically undervalue first round picks.

    A first round pick, especially a lottery pick, has a significant chance of producing a very good NHL player that will play at an undervalued contract for as much as a decade.The upside on a first round pick is very large.There is no downside, since the worst thing that can happen is the player doesn’t play.That is a neutral result.

    The player you trade for is supposed to be more certain.But that certainty comes with 1) less upside in both talent and term, and 2) if they already have a contract, significant risk that the player will cost more than they produce.

    Under these conditions you can only really win the trade if the other team makes a mistake by undervaluing the established player.But if you are already trading a first round pick for the player, this means you can only win by trading a first round pick for a player that is a star but the other team doesn’t know is a star.

    There are circumstances where this might work.Maybe Dougie Hamilton or Brayden Schenn.But when it is Hamonic it is a terrible idea.

    And when it is someone who is already on the road to bust like Reinhart, who should have had the value of a 3rd or 4th round pick, it is fireable offense the day the trade is made.Then you get neither upside nor certainty. You lit your pick on fire.

    The day the Reinhart trade was made I said that if you were going to make a terrible trade for an Islander prospect they should have at least gotten Pulock.That still would have been a terrible trade, but at least they would have chosen the guy who was top of their prospect depth chart.

    Now we are talking about trading for Pulock.

    Well put. It completely depends on the who. I have no confidence in the org, but each draft season when the pick is lower hope for a miracle from them to rebuild the damage.

    I believe game changers are worth a lot as for a smart GM competent players shouldn’t be a struggle to get. Adding a true top D and deadly winger is affordable in the long run and worth a lot to building the longevity of competitiveness of the McD era.

    Top players play at a top level for many years and dynasties are built on them. The other players come and go and have up and down contributions, many only having several great seasons, and they still end up getting paid a lot.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    rope-a-dope:
    Goalie change? Wow that’s some panic. The goals are absolutely on the team as much as they’re on Rinne.

    Thats some awful goaltending. He deserved the pull before the game gets out of hand. Those shots had 0 business going in

  75. rope-a-dope says:

    leadfarmer: Thats some awful goaltending.He deserved the pull before the game gets out of hand.Those shots had 0 business going in

    It wasn’t perfect goaltending however I thought the bigger issue was the Preds players being out raced for pucks and not tying up sticks.

  76. rope-a-dope says:

    Dream scenario for WPG though.

  77. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra: The Leafs have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Mathews, Marner, and Nylander.

    The Flyers have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Provorov, Konetchny, and Patrick.

    The Lightning have a good prospect pool and that doesn’t count Point and Sergachev, or the trade for Miller and McDonagh.

    It cost Stevie a first to get McDonagh. He’ll be 29 next season and that respected GM still did it. The larger package like that is what I hope PC can do to make it worth while for the losing team. Losing because a whomever gets the best players wins the trade.

    The top two drafters have a lot more issues than the Oilers and adding a lot of depth at one time helps them get to respectability much sooner, and save jobs, more than the few years it takes an elite player to right the ship, as we’ve seen.

  78. Scungilli Slushy says:

    rope-a-dope:
    Goalie change? Wow that’s some panic. The goals are absolutely on the team as much as they’re on Rinne.

    Sometimes done to shake the team up as opposed to poor goalering. Have to do something to change what’s happening, there is no tomorrow.

  79. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It cost Stevie a first to get McDonagh. He’ll be 29 next season and that respected GM still did it. The larger package like that is what I hope PC can do to make it worth while for the losing team. Losing because a whomever gets the best players wins the trade.

    The top two drafters have a lot more issues than the Oilers and adding a lot of depth at one time helps them get to respectability much sooner, and save jobs, more than the few years it takes an elite player to right the ship, as we’ve seen.

    I’ll add the Oilers don’t need the money and that makes all the difference.

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    rope-a-dope:
    Goalie change? Wow that’s some panic. The goals are absolutely on the team as much as they’re on Rinne.

    His teammates share some responsibility for those goals, but NHL goalies have to stop those. Both were harmless half shots.

  81. Scungilli Slushy says:

    At least 3 of the 5 teams still playing have made substantial trades. It is one of the tools to push things forward.

    When a keeper core is established things become different.

    Well executed deals are necessary IMO to success. The draft is too slow depending on luck.

    That doesn’t mean being stupid. It’s a tough business, you have to get it right. If it was easy everyone would contend in a capped league. You have to value the right things and be able to see the right players, and have luck.

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It cost Stevie a first to get McDonagh. He’ll be 29 next season and that respected GM still did it. The larger package like that is what I hope PC can do to make it worth while for the losing team. Losing because a whomever gets the best players wins the trade.

    The top two drafters have a lot more issues than the Oilers and adding a lot of depth at one time helps them get to respectability much sooner, and save jobs, more than the few years it takes an elite player to right the ship, as we’ve seen.

    Don’t forget JT Miller. He’s been one of their best players.

  83. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: Don’t forget JT Miller. He’s been one of their best players.

    Yes. Are the Bolts going to be better or worse for trading their first to get what they need is the question.

    It’s funny Cooper mentioned Miller’s physicality as key.

    Balance is a thing. And having top players playing in key positions.

  84. who says:

    Lowetide: A trade of Nuge (or Leon) would have to quickly follow.

    Yeah maybe.
    My point is I would rather pay Drai 8.5 million to the age of 29 than pay Tavares 10 million to the age of 34

  85. Professor Q says:

    CBC Talking Heads discussing Rinne possibly being done in Nashville.

    A quieter Patrick Roy moment.

    Edmonton + Rinne = Cup(s)?

  86. Spooky Lynx says:

    Professor Q:
    CBC Talking Heads discussing Rinne possibly being done in Nashville.

    A quieter Patrick Roy moment.

    Edmonton + Rinne = Cup(s)?

    Seems pretty reactionary to me. Has Rinne out of Nashville been discussed before this game? Wasn’t he nominated for a Vezina less than a month ago?

  87. Ryan says:

    Go Jets go! Bitches!

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Spooky Lynx: Seems pretty reactionary to me. Has Rinne out of Nashville been discussed before this game? Wasn’t he nominated for a Vezina less than a month ago?

    Well when you get pulled 3 times in one series you get noticed

  89. Ryan says:

    I can’t put my finger on it, but I really don’t like Laviolette.

  90. leadfarmer says:

    Vegas vs Jets. The name of the game is speed speed speed

  91. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Vegas vs Jets. The name of the game is speed speed speed

    Just win baby!

  92. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    leadfarmer:
    Vegas vs Jets. The name of the game is speed speed speed

    And rinne totally sucking.

  93. jake70 says:

    Ha, love it, Jets running them right out of their own barn. Nice. Dispose of Las Vegas in 4 would be sweet.

  94. rope-a-dope says:

    jake70:
    Ha, love it, Jets running them right out of their own barn.Nice.Dispose of Las Vegas in 4 would be sweet.

    The jets looked amazing at times in this game, dominant with their speed/cycle ability.

  95. Munny says:

    Best of luck to the Winnipeg Lawn Darts in the Conference Finals.

    However, I will be cheering for the Las Vegas Cinderfellas.

    No lose situation actually.

    And a Final with the DC Ovechkins would be most enjoyable.

  96. maudite says:

    Thing I don’t understand:

    Lucic completely changed his training to “get faster” trying to pick up more of a chance to fit McDavid’s line…How likely that the biggest part of his down arrow wasn’t completely trying to change his approach at this point in his career. Put him back on old regime, get a bit bigger and play his game in shape he’s better used to and see how the season goes. I wouldn’t be tossing him in the junk pile just yet and definitely not paying to do so. I think there is a means of getting a couple more good years still out of the guy if we don’t go all lynch mob oiler style on him.

    RNH – Mcdavid – Bargain bin UFA late summer
    Lucic – Drai – JP
    xxx – Strome – Kassian
    xxx – Jujar – xxx

    Fill the rest as you can but IMO I really hate that Sleps is gone. He fits in there somewhere.

    Klef Larsson
    Russel Sek
    Nurse Benning

    A better back up, Maybe inhouse answers for RW and honestly just something better than Russel in that mix and I think we’d be just fine. Despite the record I don’t think we are as far off if we utilized our players better and our special teams wasn’t just garbage (PP should rebound and hopefully better PK system is in place which will help that immensely).

  97. maudite says:

    Lowetide: One of the things we have to factor in is the fact the first-round pick always heads to the NHL (thus becoming an NHL player as opposed to a prospect). If you look at the Oilers drafting since 2010,thefirst round has been (mostly) a five-run home run every time.

    No reason to credit the general manager but that is part of the record and has to be accounted for in these conversations.

    Stretch that back to 2009…
    2009) #9 – MPS bust out -> #40 lander (bust out)

    2010) #1 – Hall (better than Seguin right call) -> #31 Pitlick #46 Marincin #48 Hamilton ….enough good things it’s silly how this didn’t set us up solid….silly

    2011) #1 – RNH (nuge will have a long solid top end career) -> #31 Musil (don’t care which way you pretty this up Jenner and Saad both there and both not coming with skating issue caveat…I would not touch a 2nd round prospect with that there.

    2012) #1 – Yak (bust out) #32 Moroz -> this draft is garbage like bizzaro 2011 style. With a good enough organization and scouting staff picks should have been used to fleece people here.

    2013) #7 Nurse -> #55 M.A Roy (I like this draft as it is also deep and shotgun pick grab was good call)

    From there we’ve just been thin on early picks. Due to bs League rules for GM/Coaches that don’t apply to Lou or whatever and garbage trades.

    Our development is a sore spot but just as important to me is setting up some rules to go by from now on.

    1. Identify deep drafts. Don’t ever trade picks from these unless it’s to get more picks…barring something ridiculous good that is still RFA coming back and you are in spot where team is competitive for playoffs+.

    2. Never do a deal like Reinhart again as long as you exist as an organization. A million LHD prospects..overpay for one that is trending down.

    3. Reach picks that are average or below skating in 2nd round is an utter waste of time…never do it again.

  98. godot10 says:

    Ryan:
    I can’t put my finger on it, but I really don’t like Laviolette.

    Put your finger on June 2006.

  99. godot10 says:

    David Poile is cursed.

  100. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Apropos the conversation yesterday about Merkley, I was watching some highlights last night and noticed Samorukov in some of them. Are they a pairing? Could be beneficial to the Oilers to have two guys play together for several years prior to reaching the AHL.

    Watching those highlights it is immediately apparent that he is a special talent, one that doesn’t come along very often. He may not be the fastest (although close), but his agility is second to none. Maybe Boqvist come close. He sees the ice extremely well, making passes that most others wouldn’t see let alone attempt. He’s a very gifted player, and still young – his August 2000 birthday makes him the second youngest player in the draft (to my knowledge).

    That said, I don’t think I would take him at #10. He is third among OHL defenders for points-per-game, but when you remove his PP points (more than half his total boxcars!!) he drops to 10th. Primary points look good, but he’s obviously not making smart decisions without the puck – he has the skating ability to track any puck-carrier, but something isn’t clicking here. I have not watched him enough to know what his issues are, but they are real.

    He may be available at #40, but I would not be disappointed at all if the Oilers moved the 2nd + something else to move up to 25 or so to can pick him.

    One thing I would point out about Merkley is that he played over 20.4 minutes per game. His 5-on-5 estimated TOI in the OHL was the 3rd highest in the league for under 18, the 20th highest in all OHL D, 2nd highest on his team (behind 20-yr-old McFadden by 45 seconds, and ahead of Samurakov by 70 seconds, meaning he was top-pair). Not bad for one of the youngest 17-year-olds in the draft in the hardest junior league in the world.

  101. Andy Dufresne says:

    prediction

    Oilers trade for Justin Faulk.

    Take all the smoke thats out there

    1) Carolina is in a position to move him (strong young D core)
    2) Carolina operates on a low internal budget and Faulk is moving into the two most expensive years of his contract $6million per
    3) Like his fancies or not, the guy is a PP quarterback and a 2RHD (who had an off year). He is a goal scoring defensman. He just turned 26yrs old and is a prime candidate for a bounce back year.
    4) Oilers have been rumored to be interested in this guy for 3 years now.
    5) Oilers mgt on record (repeatedly) as targeting a scoring RHD this summer

    It should be a slight buy low scenario given that the rumoured ask was RNH in the 15-16 season.

    Not saying the Oilers SHOULD trade for him. But thats a lot of smoke. Im guessing the perception of Faulk by GMs around the league is higher than his Analytics Stats Package would suggest.

    Goal Scoring wise (15,16 and 17 goals for the 3 years prior to this one) he’s in between Hamonic and Hamiltion both of whom cost the Lames a 1st rounder and two 2nd rounders. I get that its not a good comparison……but it is a starting point…..and it leads me to beleive the ask STARTS with the 10th pick.

    Friedmans got the Red Wings interested (naming Athanasiou) and possibly the Canadiens.

    Is Athanasiou worth more than this years 10th?

    Like in golf where you can sometimes bet a select grouping of 4 players to win a particular Major, If Im betting on who the Oilers end up procuring this spring/summer, Faulk is in the group I bet on. Warts and all.

    Hoping against the odds that the Oilers go after Ryan Ellis whos cap hit is only $2.5 next year. (Maybe Nashvilles loss puts them in a mood for change and the Klefbom contract has some appeal to Poile)

  102. Andy Dufresne says:

    Heres how I think MANY GMs view Faulk (and his situation in Carolina this year)

    ” Faulk is usually number one in ice time on his team, and gets that assignment more than your league-average defenceman. But he plays against all competition relatively equally, once you adjust for the fact that a number one on the other team gets more time on ice than the number six, and therefore would naturally compete against Faulk more.

    He’s primarily been paired with the rookie Haydn Fleury and Noah Hanifin about evenly this year. He did have a temporary partnership with Jaccob Slavin, but it was fairly short-lived.

    The emergence of Slavin, in addition to Brett Pesce and Trevor van Riemsdyk has led to Faulk not being used much on the penalty kill. However, on the power play he mans the top unit as the lone defender in a 1-3-1 system for the Hurricanes. With double digit goal totals in three consecutive seasons before this one, he’s a consistent goal producer”

  103. Wilde says:

    Andy Dufresne:

    3) Like his fancies or not, the guy is a PP quarterback and a 2RHD (who had an off year). He is a goal scoring defensman. He just turned 26yrs old and is a prime candidate for a bounce back year.

    Off year? Maybe in personal offensive counts, but..

    Justin Faulk at 5v5, GF / / GA (+/-)

    2013/14 – 56 / / 65 (-9)
    2014/15 – 55 / / 69 (-14)
    2015/16 – 39 / / 54 (-15)
    2016/17 – 45 / / 61 (-16)
    2017/18 – 49 / / 63 (-14)

    Seems to me to be in the range.

    Andy Dufresne:
    Heres how I think MANY GMs view Faulk (and his situation in Carolina this year)

    ”He’s primarily been paired with the rookie Haydn Fleury and Noah Hanifin about evenly this year. He did have a temporary partnership with Jaccob Slavin, but it was fairly short-lived.”

    Justin Faulk TOI teammate shares:

    Fleury -> 473m
    Slavin -> 344m
    Hanifin -> 263m
    Dahlbeck -> 199m

    Andy Dufresne:

    Is Athanasiou worth more than this years 10th?

    Athanasiou in 2017/18 -> 16 – 17 – 33 in 71 GP

    7th overall 2017

    for

    Anthony DeAngelo
    Derek Stepan ( 17 – 38 – 55 in 81GP )
    Antti Raanta

  104. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: One thing I would point out about Merkley is that he played over 20.4 minutes per game. His 5-on-5 estimated TOI in the OHL was the 3rd highest in the league for under 18, the 20th highest in all OHL D, 2nd highest on his team (behind 20-yr-old McFadden by 45 seconds, and ahead of Samurakov by 70 seconds, meaning he was top-pair). Not bad for one of the youngest 17-year-olds in the draft in the hardest junior league in the world.

    That’s interesting, thanks. He’s got immense natural talent, he just needs to be a more complete player if he wants to make the NHL.

  105. flyfish1168 says:

    What a good trade by the Jets to get Stastny. The use of this years 1st round pick, a prospect and a conditional 4th round in 2020.

    this is a good trade by a playoff team to add depth at the deadline. Unfortunately we are so weak prospect wise and need at least this draft and probably next one to have any sort of depth like the Jets.

    PC made many horrible decisions.

  106. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    prediction

    Oilers trade for Justin Faulk.

    Take all the smoke thats out there

    1) Carolina is in a position to move him (strong young D core)
    2) Carolina operates on a low internal budget and Faulk is moving into the two most expensive years of his contract $6million per
    3) Like his fancies or not, the guy is a PP quarterback and a 2RHD (who had an off year). He is a goal scoring defensman. He just turned 26yrs old and is a prime candidate for a bounce back year.
    4) Oilers have been rumored to be interested in this guy for 3 years now.
    5) Oilers mgt on record (repeatedly) as targeting a scoring RHD this summer

    It should be a slight buy low scenario given that the rumoured ask was RNH in the 15-16 season.

    Not saying the Oilers SHOULD trade for him. But thats a lot of smoke.Im guessing the perception of Faulk by GMs around the league is higher than his Analytics Stats Package would suggest.

    Goal Scoring wise (15,16 and 17 goals for the 3 years prior to this one) he’s in between Hamonic and Hamiltion both of whom cost the Lames a 1st rounder and two 2nd rounders.I get that its not a good comparison……but it is a starting point…..and it leads me to beleive the ask STARTS with the 10th pick.

    Friedmans got the Red Wings interested (naming Athanasiou) and possibly the Canadiens.

    Is Athanasiou worth more than this years 10th?

    Like in golf where you can sometimes bet a select grouping of 4 players to win a particular Major, If Im betting on who the Oilers end up procuring this spring/summer, Faulk is in the group I bet on. Warts and all.

    Hoping against the odds that the Oilers go after Ryan Ellis whos cap hit is only$2.5 next year. (Maybe Nashvilles loss puts them in a mood for change and the Klefbom contract has some appeal to Poile)

    Faulk as a 2RD is a big reason that Carolina hasn’t had any success in years. His ES goal differential for the past 4 years:

    60 78 43.48
    47 67 41.23
    52 70 42.62
    56 80 41.18

    This isn’t a “one-year” blip on an otherwise good career, this is a guy in the prime of his career who does not outscore his opponents. Here are his most common partners in those years and their GF% with and without Faulk:

    Andrej Sekera 41.89 70.00
    Ron Hainsey 41.54 53.66
    Ron Hainsey 39.34 31.25
    Hayden Fleury 43.24 46.88

    Two things seem apparent, (1) Faulk is generally a drag on his teammates, and (2) he played 3RD PAIRING for Carolina this year and still got smoked – all while dragging his 21-year-old rookie partner down in the process.

  107. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    2014-15 is the last time Faulk led his team in TOI.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    From the numbers and from what I saw of Justin Faulk this year, he is not a player that will help a team f asked to play top 4 even strength minutes. The numbers show he is a drag on his ice-mates and the puck goes in his net more often than the opposition net.

    I would think that Justin could help a team as a 3RD (in particular on home ice where he could be sheltered (if our coach learned to linematch) and as a PP specialist.

    The issue is his contract is too expensive for that spot and the acquisition cost likely does not line up (at all) with that type of deployment.

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