Faces Come out of the Rain

We have reached the point in spring where teams that missed the playoffs begin to arrange the 50-man list for fall. Edmonton signed another goalie yesterday, that may give us an answer about one RFA and one UFA at the position. The 50-man is filling up, who will land on the outside?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

SKINNER SIGNS

The Oilers 2017 draft is looking strong at this point with many miles to go. Skinner is a solid prospect on a tremendous run, but the resume was good before he arrived in Swift Current.

  • Scott Wheeler: Skinner is huge. In today’s NHL, with the right goalie coach, that mean’s anything is possible. He was great in last year’s playoffs and has shown in spurts that he can be the kind of goalie Lethbridge hoped he be when they took him in the first round. Source

50-MAN LIST

  • I have listed the most likely RFA’s to sign, although at this point I do wonder about Nick Ellis.
  • Stuart Skinner can go back to junior but I don’t think there’s much for him there. A guess would be Dylan Wells in the ECHL, Skinner in Bakersfield with a veteran like Al Montoya, Ellis or even Laurent Brossoit allowing the kids to ease into their pro careers. No way on earth Edmonton would run two rookies in Bakersfield. I believe Al Montoya gets traded, possibly in training camp if and when Mikko Koskinen shows he can succeed against NHL shooters.
  • Top 4D, if everyone is healthy? Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Darnell Nurse. I think Kris Russell and Matt Benning will probably play lesser minutes if the others are healthy. Who plays RD on the second pair? Nurse is playing there at the WHC’s right now.
  • Ryan Strome is in an interesting spot. He showed flashes of filling the role required, but so did Mike York and the Oilers sent him packing after 144 games. I remember the time he had a broken hand, MacT had him playing the point on a 5-on-3 and everyone kept passing the puck to the guy with a broken hand! No one from Mensa on the ice that night.
  • Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl faceoff against each other today at the WHC’s. The game is on TSN1260, my show is preempted but I do have a segment with Jamo at 11:20. McDavid has back checked in this tournament, Leon is walking the dog a little. Both are scoring machines.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, Ty Rattie and Jesse Puljujarvi are the most likely candidates for opening night skill lines, although Lucic and JP are not good together. Edmonton will add skill on the wing.
  • Maybe the Oilers will hire Tyler Bozak to play 2C, moving Leon to right wing and playing RNH on the portside. That’s crazy. Right? RIGHT?

STRANGE DAYS INDEED

Craig Button brought up two names (Travis Sanheim of the Philadelphia Flyers and Jacob Larsson) in a recent TSN segment as a possible ask for the No. 10 overall selection. I like the idea, but the Oilers would be looking for a righty blue (both shoot left) and someone who is a puck mover or two-way defenseman. Here are the top 10 AHL rearguards in their entry-level deals (in 2017-18) and their 5×5 primary points-per-60 (estimated) via prospect-stats.com.

I think the Oilers have two men at the NHL level (Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera) who are superior power-play options to anyone on this list. They may not be healthy all next season, and some men on this may turn out, but this is a needle in a haystack. Ethan Bear performed significantly better than Larsson and is comparable or superior so far to Sanheim (we need more blacktop to make any grand statements). At 5×5, Bear’s a nice option based on this table. Now, 5×4 primary.

Well, things don’t get any better for Larsson, who looks like a good comp for Ladislav Smid at the same age. Bear doesn’t rank inside the top 20 but we should get a better idea after his second season. Aho shows up on both lists, and this Niku fellow looks like a quality option. He’s the kind of player Edmonton should pursue (although a first-round pick is a heavy price).

As for Sanheim and Larsson, I don’t think there’s a reasonable case to be made that either man should be the focus for Edmonton, certainly not for the No. 10 overall selection. Sanheim does appear to be a better bet than Griffin Reinhart was in 2015, still wouldn’t deal No. 10 overall. If Vince Dunn were a righty, that might be an option.

 

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126 Responses to "Faces Come out of the Rain"

  1. Greg says:

    I stopped reading at Luc Snuggerud. Sign that man right now. I don’t even care if he’s awful.

  2. Russian Rocket says:

    Would Dante Fabbro be worth looking at for 10th overall?
    Haven’t seen him play since Jr, but seems to be projecting well in NCAA.
    Right shot.
    Closer to line-up ready than 2018 pick but still expansion exempt for 2019/2020 I believe.
    How would he compare to what would be available at 10 this year?

  3. godot10 says:

    Oh…another Reinhart trade on the horizon for the 10th OV. I’m so excited to see what bust they trade it for this time.

    Man…they are doing it wrong if they trade away the 10 OV. They are basically trading away any Cups when McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s cap hits become more manageable as a percentage of the cap.

    So the strategy for this summer seems like it is going to be “Keep On Digging”.

  4. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I looked up traded first round picks. Since 2007 only well established players with rep have garnered a first round pick, often in a package.

    Only the Oilers trade first rounders – gold in the NHL – for a non nhl player.

    iIRC that didn’t work out well.

    I would only trade that pick to move up in the draft or for a player like Karlsson coming in a way he could be retained.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Russian Rocket:
    Would Dante Fabbro be worth looking at for 10th overall?
    Haven’t seen him play since Jr, but seems to be projecting well in NCAA.
    Right shot.
    Closer to line-up ready than 2018 pick but still expansion exempt for 2019/2020 I believe.
    How would he compare to what would be available at 10 this year?

    His NHLE last season in the ECAC (24.6) compares with Ty Smith (26.2), with Fabbro being 21 months older (and closer to the NHL).

  6. godot10 says:

    Russian Rocket:
    Would Dante Fabbro be worth looking at for 10th overall?
    Haven’t seen him play since Jr, but seems to be projecting well in NCAA.
    Right shot.
    Closer to line-up ready than 2018 pick but still expansion exempt for 2019/2020 I believe.
    How would he compare to what would be available at 10 this year?

    Why would Nashville do that? Fabbro is tracking perfectly for Nashville, and slated to arrive as an affordable replacement when they can no longer afford all of their existing D.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    I like Sanheim. Dont see why Philly does this. You’re hoping you get Sanheim caliber player with that pick.
    For some reason i still think it will be Brodie playing his right side. He turns better that way and Calgary wants a first. Im not advocating the trade. Its something i think Chia might do

  8. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Yeah doesnt make sense either. They are in a win now mode. Trading back 2 years makes 0 sense.

  9. 36 percent body fat says:

    No to Sanheim for 10.

    A former 17th overall pick, and apparently shopped by his team. Means he has fallen off relative to his draft pedigree. While I believe there is a player there. A fair price would be around 18-22 overall.

    After the Reinhart fiasco, stop doing this, unless you are getting a deal. Whos next, 10th and 41st for Dal Colle?

    Oilers traded 16 and their 2nd for the former 4th overall pick in the draft, who had accomplished nothing in the NHL and was badly trending down relative to his draft peers.

    But all the oilers got back for Yak was a 3rd round pick. Yet Yak had a good season in the nhl just a few years prior, and was ok relative to his peers. Look where he sits in production to his draft class. He is likely still a first round pick, considering the week draft, yet Reinhart would be maybe a 3rd rounder.

    Which team got value for their picks, or took an educated low risk, with high possible return and which on is the oilers.

    No to 10th for either of those players!

  10. who says:

    leadfarmer:
    I like Sanheim.Dont see why Philly does this.You’re hoping you get Sanheim caliber player with that pick.
    For some reason i still think it will be Brodie playing his right side.He turns better that way and Calgary wants a first.Im not advocating the trade.Its something i think Chia might do

    I could see Edmonton being interested in Brodie. He can run a powerplay and has shown the ability to play the right side. No way he’s worth the 10OV though. Maybe if they threw in Bennett or Ferland. That would be an interesting trade.
    Probably more likely to be Russell for Brodie straight up. Slim chance it actually happens.

  11. Jaxon says:

    I’m not convinced 5-on-4 is a great stat for a couple reasons. 1. by virtue of the fact it is only a couple minute per game maximum it is a small sample size. 2. we well know that great players can have bad5-on-4 stats (McDavid and all the Oilers this year) as it is so dependent on coaching and pp setups.

    I think finding a player who produces at 5-on-5 is a much better indicator of future production at 5-on-4.

    What about Tucker Poolman?

  12. dustrock says:

    I’m not trading the 10th overall pick for a prospect who might be good some day.

    That’s who I’m picking with the 10th, and probably someone with a higher ceiling in 2018.

  13. Rafa Nadal says:

    I’m not sure if they have the same skill sets, but if Yamamoto could model his game after Marchessault (also 5’9), that would be awesome. Man is that guy a good player, and a very good skater.

  14. jtblack says:

    ” I remember the time he had a broken hand, MacT had him playing the point on a 5-on-3 and everyone kept passing the puck to the guy with a broken hand! ”

    Don’t remember this, but you had me Laughing LT! Because Oilers.

    Skinner has done everything asked of him so far, probably has exceeded expectation. No Goalie had a better playoffs in the entire CHL.

    I think he will need 2 – 3 yrs in the Minors. Hoping he keeps progressing and becomes our version of Hellybuck!

  15. russ99 says:

    who: I could see Edmonton being interested in Brodie. He can run a powerplay and has shown the ability to play the right side. No way he’s worth the 10OV though. Maybe if they threw in Bennett or Ferland. That would be an interesting trade.
    Probably more likely to be Russell for Brodie straight up. Slim chance it actually happens.

    Calgary is probably the only team Russell will waive for, so maybe, but we’d likely need to add.

    #10 should be moved for quality only.

  16. cowboy bill says:

    Colin Miller in Vegas . Is rfa and stuck in a third pair role . If they could work a deal with the Knights for him . He’s a right shot that might be a good fit with Nurse on the 2nd pair in Edmonton. They are ex teammates also .

  17. Todd Macallan says:

    If the quality of the Twitter pic of Skinner signing is any indication of his future as a goaler, we are in for a lot of future Stanleys based on the jean jacket alone.

  18. MrFancypantss says:

    Would the number #10 and Russell for Hamilton be crazy?

  19. who says:

    cowboy bill:
    Colin Miller in Vegas . Is rfa and stuck in a third pair role . If they could work a deal with the Knights for him. He’s a right shot that might be a good fit with Nurse on the 2nd pair in Edmonton.They are ex teammates also .

    I don’t see why he would be available. He’s the only young right shot dman Vegas has. And he had a good year.
    Vegas isn’t up against the cap. They can afford to sign him.
    You need to target players that actually might be available.

  20. Oilman99 says:

    cowboy bill:
    Colin Miller in Vegas . Is rfa and stuck in a third pair role . If they could work a deal with the Knights for him. He’s a right shot that might be a good fit with Nurse on the 2nd pair in Edmonton.They are ex teammates also .

    Miller has good wheels, and can move the puck. He would be a good pickup,at a cap friendly price.

  21. Oilman99 says:

    who: I don’t see why he would be available. He’s the only young right shot dman Vegas has. And he had a good year.
    Vegas isn’t up against the cap. They can afford to sign him.
    You need to target players that actually might be available.

    He’s a third pairing player, who’s to say he’s not available. If he’s not signed, he’s out there.

  22. Oilman99 says:

    russ99: Calgary is probably the only team Russell will waive for, so maybe, but we’d likely need to add.

    #10 should be moved for quality only.

    The way he played last year, I’m not sure Brodie would be an upgrade.

  23. McSorley33 says:

    How about we actually draft our own Colin Miller…?

    Round 5 selection….

  24. McSorley33 says:

    The waiting for an RHD to fall from the sky is not working…..

  25. Jordan says:

    McSorley33:
    The waiting for an RHD to fall from the sky is not working…..

    My understanding is that RHD need to be drafted, traded for, or signed.

    Benning – Signed by Chia
    Russel – LHD who plays RHD signed by Chia
    Gryba – traded for by Chia
    Larsson – traded for by Chia
    Bear – Drafted by Chia
    Mantha – signed by Chia

    So… Since Chia came, he’s brought in an entire 2 rosters worth of RHD.

    Either they do fall from the sky, or the RHD you’re looking for is not represented within those RHD brought in. Perhaps there’s other characteristics you’d like to add to define the type of RHD don’t beleive falls from the sky?

  26. jtblack says:

    Jordan: My understanding is that RHD need to be drafted, traded for, or signed.

    Benning – Signed by Chia
    Russel – LHD who plays RHD signed by Chia
    Gryba – traded for by Chia
    Larsson – traded for by Chia
    Bear – Drafted by Chia
    Mantha – signed by Chia

    So… Since Chia came, he’s brought in an entire 2 rosters worth of RHD.

    Either they do fall from the sky, or the RHD you’re looking for is not represented within those RHD brought in.Perhaps there’s other characteristics you’d like to add to define the type of RHD don’t beleive falls from the sky?

    +1 🙂

  27. Truth says:

    Keep the pick unless it’s a no brainer. Doesn’t make any sense to trade that pick when the cupboards are bare and there’s a grade A prospect available at 10.

    Also, I’m going to continue to beat the drum. Trade Strome and Russell (or Lucic if Chiarelli can force the opposing GM to be Chiarelli’d) for nothing. Then sign Derek Ryan or Bozak to replace Strome, and have about $3-7 M in extra cap space for the RD somewhere down the line.

  28. who says:

    Oilman99: He’s a third pairing player, who’s to say he’s not available. If he’s not signed, he’s out there.

    If you were Vegas why would you trade him?
    This question needs to be asked every time someone suggests a trade target.

  29. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Truth:
    Keep the pick unless it’s a no brainer.Doesn’t make any sense to trade that pick when the cupboards are bare and there’s a grade A prospect available at 10.

    Also, I’m going to continue to beat the drum.Trade Strome and Russell (or Lucic if Chiarelli can force the opposing GM to be Chiarelli’d) for nothing.Then sign Derek Ryan or Bozak to replace Strome, and have about $3-7 M in extra cap space for the RD somewhere down the line.

    Ideally they should trade Strome, Russell, Lucic and Talbot and find a vet to play toughs in Stromes spot, a rightie D, more scoring with the cap space and a keeper goalie.

    I think it ‘could’ happen with the right GM feeling by urgency, won’t happen with these guys and wrong headplayers d thinking and loyalties.

  30. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m not sure why people want to get rid of Strome. Seems like a very good 3C with some upside. Lots of people raving about Eller as 3C and I would think Strome is equally good, with more upside. Eller also makes $3.5 mill.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stuart Skinner can go back to junior but I don’t think there’s much for him there. A guess would be Dylan Wells in the ECHL, Skinner in Bakersfield with a veteran like Al Montoya, Ellis or even Laurent Brossoit allowing the kids to ease into their pro careers. No way on earth Edmonton would run two rookies in Bakersfield. I believe Al Montoya gets traded, possibly in training camp if and when Mikko Koskinen shows he can succeed against NHL shooters

    ——————————————

    Where does Shane Starett fit in? I would think he might be in Bakesfield with Skinner if Montoya is gone. Even if Montoya is still here and clears waivers, they could go with 3 goalies in Bakersfield but not really play Big Al – is that a terrible thing to do to a veteran?

    After the Montoya acquisition, i thought it was clear that LB would be let go (to sign elsewhere as a UFA) but that Ellis would be qualified and kept. They then ran LB hard down the stretch – likely as sign of a perceived “playoff spot chase” and Ellis struggling but it makes me think maybe they aren’t sold on keeping Ellis and letting LB go?

    I have no idea what is going to happen with the tenders for this coming year – no idea who will play where except in the NHL where Koskinen will be gifted the back-up spot even if outplayed by Montoya.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Top 4D, if everyone is healthy? Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Darnell Nurse. I think Kris Russell and Matt Benning will probably play lesser minutes if the others are healthy. Who plays RD on the second pair? Nurse is playing there at the WHC’s right now.

    ———————————–

    I absolutely hate this potential. This organization needs to find a way to get a true right defenceman for that 2RD. Having left shot d-men cover that spot needs to stop – we are making our players worse by asking them to play their offside.

    We know Russell is worse on the right side. We know Sekera is worse on the right side. I imagine Nurse will be worse on the right side as well.

    I’m all for reducing Russell’s responsibility and having him on the 3rd pairing but are we really going to ask a developing Darnell Nurse to play his off-side in the top 4? We still don’t know if Darnell will top out as a 2LD or he can handle 1LD minutes in the future and we are going to ask him to change positions?

    Darnell is still an average (at best) transitioner of the puck by pass – he will be that much worse on the right side. We need to improve our transition game, not make it worse.

    Yes, this is the position we are in and this is a main reason why, in my opinion, the priority this off-season is a real 2RD. It will allow the other d-men to be more successful and, as I’ve gone on about at length, will help the transition game which looked to me like the worst in the league last year and a huge issue.

    Yes, a leftie needs to be moved out to make this happen but it needs to happen.

  33. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree 100%

    Which LHD would you prefer to move/trade in search of the elusive 2RD – Nurse of Klef? In an ideal world we could move Sekera + for a 2RD and run Nurse/Klef/Russ on the left side, but that is not realistic IMO.

    I think I would move Nurse over Klef.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    After being the worst in the league up and till January, the Oiler PK was 2nd in the league from February on.

    I thought that was an interesting tidbit that I read earlier today.

    Just thinking back, personnel wise, this probably coincided with Letsetu and Caggulia being removed (generally) from the PK and an increase it PK TOI for Strome and Khaira.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree 100%

    Which LHD would you prefer to move/trade in search of the elusive 2RD – Nurse of Klef? In an ideal world we could move Sekera + for a 2RD and run Nurse/Klef/Russ on the left side, but that is not realistic IMO.

    I think I would move Nurse over Klef.

    Ideally, I would move Russell first and Sekera second. Of course, we know all about the NMCs.

    I go back and forth as between Klefbom and Nurse.

    I see Nurse having a higher ceiling but I’m not sure he gets there.

    I read about Klefbom’s procedure from earlier this year fixing a shoulder issue that he’s had for years and years – maybe he is healthier than ever?

    Part of the analysis will be dependent on what Nurse signs for and I have no idea what that’s going to look like.

    I would be comfortable with a trade along the lines of Klefbom for the NYI first round plus Beauviller and Ho Sang – I’m guessing Beauviller is too much but would a 1st and Ho Sang get the deal done and would it be value for Klef? The $4M would need to be spent on a true top 4 right show D that can move the puck.

    There is risk as this is somewhat dependent on Sekera giving us a couple more good years. Will that happen?

    Also, never the best option but Russell and Sekera can be bought out for decent cap savings – there are a couple tough years in the buyout structure though. That cap savings must be spent on a the right player though as we are buying out legit NHL d-men and we need to keep legit NHL d-men.

  36. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    After being the worst in the league up and till January, the Oiler PK was2nd in the league from February on.

    I thought that was an interesting tidbit that I read earlier today.

    Just thinking back, personnel wise, this probably coincided with Letsetu and Caggulia being removed (generally) from the PK and an increase it PK TOI for Strome and Khaira.

    It was mentioned in-season too. Also, I believe there was a systems tweak to the PK end of Jan, beginning of Feb. (As well as the personnel changes you mention).

  37. rickithebear says:

    Oilman99: The way he played last year, I’m not sure Brodie would be an upgrade.

    Elite 0% corsi dman HD results almost always mirror thier D partners HD ability.
    They are a way of creating a strong HD pair with one top 60 HD dman
    Russell created #2 2ncd comp Dpair with Sekera
    Strong save% baseline with Larsson
    Klefbom bottom 30 HD
    Nurse Bottom 5 HD dman

    Brodie was a top 10 HD dman and dragged Giordano,s HD results ( normally bot 30)
    His decline started when he was subjected to Hamilton (bot 10 HD) and Hamonic ( bot 5 HD)
    But he needs to play to his side.

  38. Cassandra says:

    MrFancypantss:
    Would the number #10 and Russell for Hamilton be crazy?

    If by crazy you mean awesome, then yes.

  39. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    After being the worst in the league up and till January, the Oiler PK was2nd in the league from February on.

    I thought that was an interesting tidbit that I read earlier today.

    Just thinking back, personnel wise, this probably coincided with Letsetu and Caggulia being removed (generally) from the PK and an increase it PK TOI for Strome and Khaira.

    Did not know that. Also worrsiome as the PK was obviously good the last 2 months, but the Oilers record wasn’t much better, than the 1st part of the season.

  40. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I shudder at the thought of a third consecutive fleecing in a trade with the Isles.
    I also see no logic in trading Klefbom ( or Nurse ) for a pick plus a forward when that will weaken our LD without improving our RD; i would not trade either of them unless it was in return for an equivalent upgrade on the RD.
    As an aside, looking at the past 4 years of scoring stats for Ho Sang, he is significantly more of a playmaker than a sniper when the Oilers need the latter.

  41. russ99 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’m not sure why people want to get rid of Strome. Seems like a very good 3C with some upside. Lots of people raving about Eller as 3C and I would think Strome is equally good, with more upside. Eller also makes $3.5 mill.

    Makes no sense to pay a guy a $3M QO without quantifiable results, and he only really excels at shooting, but the puck doesn’t go in the net. Part of that could be linemates, but I just don’t see the potential at both sides of the ice that someone like Nuge did playing tougher minutes with lesser linemates last year and the year before.

    We could get both Brodziak and Winnik for close to his 18-19 salary and both are better than him on the PK and without the puck and Brodziak with comparable scoring numbers.

    It would be a fatal mistake to make the same assumption that the “1994 group” can take the step up they didn’t take after Chia bet on that last summer.

  42. rickithebear says:

    So.
    Blood plasma cancer!
    They think I have had it since 2013.
    Former Family doctor kept saying the fatigue and tooth ache pain in the bones was diabetes.
    Current dr. had test done and blood history figured in 3 months.
    Bone marrow tap showed non homogenous concentrations as high as 90%

    Dextrametazone zooms my sugars well beyond 30 such that in hospital getting 60-80 short acting insulin to get me to 25 glucose.

    Thursday was not a mild heart attack and no blood clots on the CT,s
    Compression and vertebrae fracturing in between T10 and T11 while walking.
    Caused the nerves around heart to have the stepped on chest feeling
    Shot heart rate to 130
    And blood pressure to 170 over
    All the initial possible heart attack treatment in trauma unit

    No infections but still a concern

    Tropins high enough to make them think it was heart damage.
    But later determined to be spine.

    Bone doctor and Oncologist making decision today on whether there will be a need
    To largely be in hospital bed for next months to eliminate the risk of further fractures on the body.

    Like that guy in the movie unbreakable.

    Today, I wait to here them say I can go home!

  43. Lowetide says:

    Ricki: Wow! Glad they found it. Stay safe, brother. Heal! Lordy.

  44. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – So Sek seems to be playing well, huge minutes

    – Larsson look good, huge minutes as well, and a nice PP goal as well: low one-time slapper

    – Nurse: not playing big minutes, but he’s there

    – I think its safe to assume that Sek and Larsson will be productive and useful next year

    – And Klef, post-surgery: he certainly won’t be worse after removing the bone spurs..

  45. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear,

    Geez and I thought I had it bad this morning.

    With my sideline business I had a sprinkler install in a new area, had bad diarhea, with no can in sight. Good thing I had a shovel. Homeowner will never know why the grass will be grow like hell in that one spot.

    All the best Ricki.

  46. godot10 says:

    I sort of would like to see, if Sekera is back in form…

    Sekera Larsson
    Nurse, Klefbom or Klefbom, Nurse
    Russell, Benning

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I shudder at the thought of a third consecutive fleecing in a trade with the Isles.
    I also see no logic in trading Klefbom ( or Nurse ) for a pick plus a forward when that will weaken our LD without improving our RD; i would not trade either of them unless it was in return for an equivalent upgrade on the RD.
    As an aside, looking at the past 4 years of scoring stats for Ho Sang, he is significantly more of a playmaker than a sniper when the Oilers need the latter.

    1) I don’t buy into the “can’t trade with Snow or Shero” concept;

    2) The trade of Klefbom in my example was a trade solely to open up cap space for a corresponding acquisition of a top 4 RD – in no way am I willing to trade Klefbom unless its in connection with a true top 4 right shot D being acquired (subject to, of course, a deal that can’t be turned down)

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: Did not know that. Also worrsiome as the PK was obviously good the last 2 months, but the Oilers record wasn’t much better, than the 1st part of the season.

    I tried to research this but couldn’t figure out how to find team record by splits (and can’t do it manually at this point in time) but is this true?

    It seems to me that the Oilers were much better in the 2nd half of the season and the last third of the season. We climbed the standings to 9th last and, at certain points earlier in the season, were right there for the bottom 5.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    I sort of would like to see, if Sekera is back in form…

    Sekera Larsson
    Nurse, Klefbom or Klefbom, Nurse
    Russell, Benning

    Golly, moving another left shot/left side D to the right side, making them a worse player and asking them to play top 4 minutes as a worse player, just can’t happen – it just can’t.

    There are not many worse options in my mind then having Kris Russell as our 2RD but I think I would prefer that over making Nurse and Klefbom worse player – we need those two to be material contributors.

    I implore Peter Chiarelli to find a top 4 right shot D that can move the puck.

    I know, I know, he needs to move a left shot D in order to make it work – it needs to work though.

  50. --hudson-- says:

    Have a lot of work to do, so of course it’s a great time to procrastinate. Here is the % of d-time each team has a lefty or a right d on the ice. With a few quick points:
    – hockey-reference jumbles up all the traded players into a ‘TOT’ row so those players aren’t broken out by team.
    – Interestingly 85% of the ice time for traded defencemen were lefty’s.
    – The only righty’s that changed teams were Vatanen, Prosser, and Mark Alt.
    – 3 teams actually play right d more than left d. Florida, Dallas, and Boston.
    – About 11 teams have balance.
    – The remaining 17 teams all have more lefties than righties.
    – Check out the leftorium in Philly: Provorov, Ghost, Hagg, MacDonald, Manning, Sanheim, Morin, O’Neill. Their only RHD is Gudas and it’s believed they would trade him.
    – I didn’t account for injuries, so Nashville is only 36% but would have been higher if Ellis was healthy.

    Lefties, Righties
    FLA, 43%, 57%
    DAL, 44%, 56%
    BOS, 46%, 54%
    SJS, 48%, 52%
    WPG, 49%, 51%
    STL, 49%, 51%
    OTT, 49%, 51%
    CGY, 50%, 50%
    PIT, 50%, 50%
    TBL, 50%, 50%
    ANA, 51%, 49%
    CHI, 52%, 48%
    WSH, 53%, 47%
    CAR, 53%, 47%
    MIN, 56%, 44%
    VAN, 60%, 40%
    MTL, 60%, 40%
    NJD, 61%, 39%
    NYR, 61%, 39%
    EDM, 63%, 37%
    COL, 63%, 37%
    CBJ, 64%, 36%
    LAK, 64%, 36%
    NSH, 64%, 36%
    NYI, 64%, 36%
    BUF, 66%, 34%
    VEG, 68%, 32%
    TOR, 68%, 32%
    DET, 70%, 30%
    ARI, 73%, 27%
    TOT, 85%, 15%
    PHI, 87%, 13%

  51. --hudson-- says:

    All that was a long winded way of me saying, I agree with Chiarelli. Feel free to target a puck moving defenceman, but I am not sure they need to be right handed, and there’s quite a few teams that have had a successful year with a bigger leftorium than Edmonton.

  52. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    So.
    Blood plasma cancer!
    They think I have had it since 2013.
    Former Family doctor kept saying the fatigue and tooth ache pain in the bones was diabetes.
    Current dr. had test done and blood history figured in 3 months.
    Bone marrow tap showed non homogenous concentrations as high as 90%

    Dextrametazone zooms my sugars well beyond 30 such that in hospital getting 60-80 short acting insulin to get me to 25 glucose.

    Thursday was not a mild heart attack and no blood clots on the CT,s
    Compression and vertebrae fracturing in between T10 and T11 while walking.
    Caused the nerves around heart to have the stepped on chest feeling
    Shot heart rate to 130
    And blood pressure to 170 over
    All the initial possible heart attack treatment in trauma unit

    No infections but still a concern

    Tropins high enough to make them think it was heart damage.
    But later determined to be spine.

    Bone doctor and Oncologist making decision today on whether there will be a need
    To largely be in hospital bed for next months to eliminate the risk of further fractures on the body.

    Like that guy in the movie unbreakable.

    Today, I wait to here them say I can go home!

    Sorry to hear that.

    Is that multiple myeloma?

    If your back hurts really badly ask for a vertebroplasty. I do those and that helps with back pain after compression fractures if you are suffering with conservative treatment

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cancer, diarrhea and Brodie.

    Oh my!

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Faces come out in the rain……..when you’re strange.

    No one remembers your name…….when you’re strange.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer,

    Was catching up on last night’s thread.

    30 goals?????

    C’mon man.

    Want to just bet on his SH% (minimum 70gp)?

  56. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    So when Brodie becomes an Oiler I’m going to bookmark this blog

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    –hudson–,

    Great data!!!!

    Thanks.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    So when Brodie becomes an Oiler I’m going to bookmark this blog

    I’ll tie a black armband around this post if Brodie becomes an Oiler.

    Man.

  59. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    leadfarmer,

    Was catching up on last night’s thread.

    30 goals?????

    C’mon man.

    Want to just bet on his SH% (minimum 70gp)?

    30 goals still puts his shot percentage at over 16 percent this year. 25 percent why would I do that. That’s like the 40 goals over and under someone put up yesterday. Why would I do that? That puts all the liability on me.

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I tried to research this but couldn’t figure out how to find team record by splits (and can’t do it manually at this point in time) but is this true?

    It seems to me that the Oilers were much better in the 2nd half of the season and the last third of the season. We climbed the standings to 9th last and, at certain points earlier in the season, were right there for the bottom 5.

    Offsidereview.com has an awesome date range function.

    I highly suggest it. Only two years of data though.

    Naturalstatrick has a date range function as well, tougher to use and get right, but workshops.

    Also,

    EDM 4v5 GA/60

    Oct 1 – Jan 31
    10.39 – NHL rank for time period – 31st – putrid

    Feb 1 – April 15
    5.35 – NHL rank for time period -the 4th – v.good

    The story is that McLellan “took control of the PK in mid-January” . What took him so long?

    They moved away from an aggressive PK that relied on everyone making good reads and rotating coverage based on who was chasing the puck carrier to the ol’ 4 man box and keep the shots to the outside.

    Basically going from man to zone coverage.

    This actually got me thinking……..since most NHL PP schemes are designed for beating a high pressure PK, maybe “going backwards to go forward” and playing a simple 4 man box zone would stymie a lot of PKs because they don’t play against that type of system often……

  61. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: 30 goals still puts his shot percentage at over 16 percent this year.25 percent why would I do that. That’s like the 40 goals over and under someone put up yesterday. Why would I do that?That puts all the liability on me.

    Mr. Farmer,

    You posted this:

    People really need stop calling Karlssons season luck. His scoring the vast majority of his goals from very high danger scoring areas (below the hash marks and between on a odd man break or when the goalie has to move to make a save, best way to beat a butterfly goalie or a tip in). As long as Marchessault keeps feeding him those tasty morsels i would not expect his shot percentage to drop much

    Here is the link: https://lowetide.ca/2018/05/14/shine-your-light-on-me/#comment-740946

    You have gone from “I would not expect his shot percentage to drop much”

    To:

    30 goals still puts his shot percentage at over 16 percent this year.

    So what is it?

    Not much off 24% or 16%?

    I will bet on one.

    Not the other.

    Regards,
    Mr. Guy

  62. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Offsidereview.com has an awesome date range function.

    I highly suggest it.Only two years of data though.

    Naturalstatrick has a date range function as well, tougher to use and get right, but workshops.

    Also,

    EDM 4v5 GA/60

    Oct 1 – Jan 31
    10.39 – NHL rank for time period – 31st – putrid

    Feb 1 – April 15
    5.35 – NHL rank for time period -the 4th – v.good

    The story is that McLellan “took control of the PK in mid-January” .What took him so long?

    They moved away from an aggressive PK that relied on everyone making good reads and rotating coverage based on who was chasing the puck carrier to the ol’ 4 man box and keep the shots to the outside.

    Basically going from man to zone coverage.

    This actually got me thinking……..since most NHL PP schemes are designed for beating a high pressure PK, maybe “going backwards to go forward” and playing a simple 4 man box zone would stymie a lot of PKs because they don’t play against that type of system often……

    What was the Oilers win loss record from February 1st on?

    They had an excellent penalty-kill and Connor McDavid went supernova and I still don’t think EDM was much over fake .500?

  63. --hudson-- says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    –hudson–,

    Great data!!!!

    Thanks.

    As someone who’s given me a lot of food for thought as long as I’ve read this blog, glad to reciprocate something!

    Another quick way of summarizing this data would be like this:
    Teams with 5 lefty’s and 1 righty: (1) Philly
    Teams with normally 3 lefty’s and 3 righty’s: (15) Florida, Dallas, Boston, SJ, Winnipeg, St. Louis, Ottawa, Calgary, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Anaheim, Chicago, Washington, Carolina, Vancouver
    Teams with normally 4 lefty’s and 2 righty: (15) everyone else

    With the last group you see some fluctuations in the percentages between teams depending on if it’s the first, second or third pairing is the one that has two lefties. I am not sure how informative the data is, but you could summarize:
    – There’s a lot of teams in the same position as the Oilers.
    – Many of those teams are actually worse off because they don’t have a horse like Larsson on the top pairing, their righty’s are on their 2nd and 3rd pairing.
    – A team like Tampa is balanced due to Stralman, Girardi, Dotchin and Sustr. Stralman we know well but the other three are not high caliber defencemen, worth far less than the type of trade rumors you hear around Edmonton. With caveat they do have an incredible set of left handed d (Hedman, McDonaugh, Sergachev, Coburn).

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99: Makes no sense to pay a guy a $3M QO without quantifiable results, and he only really excels at shooting, but the puck doesn’t go in the net. Part of that could be linemates, but I just don’t see the potential at both sides of the ice that someone like Nuge did playing tougher minutes with lesser linemates last year and the year before.

    We could get both Brodziak and Winnik for close to his 18-19 salary and both are better than him on the PK and without the puck and Brodziak with comparable scoring numbers.

    It would be a fatal mistake to make the same assumption that the “1994 group” can take the step up they didn’t take after Chia bet on that last summer.

    Honest question. What are you basing this on? It ain’t offence so it must be possession stats. Strome put up numbers you expect from a 3C and these guys are generally paid $3 mill. He looked pretty good on the PK a well. I would be quite happy to pay him $3 mill over two years.

  65. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: What was the Oilers win loss record from February 1st on?

    They had an excellent penalty-kill and Connor McDavid went supernova and I still don’t think EDM was much over fake .500?

    That isn’t as easy to get.

    Leave it with me.

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    –hudson–: As someone who’s given me a lot of food for thought as long as I’ve read this blog, glad to reciprocate something!

    Another quick way of summarizing this data would be like this:
    Teams with 5 lefty’s and 1 righty: (1) Philly
    Teams with normally 3 lefty’s and 3 righty’s: (15) Florida, Dallas, Boston, SJ, Winnipeg, St. Louis, Ottawa, Calgary, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Anaheim, Chicago, Washington, Carolina, Vancouver
    Teams with normally 4 lefty’s and 2 righty: (15) everyone else

    With the last group you see some fluctuations in the percentages between teams depending on if it’s the first, second or third pairing is the one that has two lefties.I am not sure how informative the data is, but you could summarize:
    – There’s a lot of teams in the same position as the Oilers.
    – Many of those teams are actually worse off because they don’t have a horse like Larsson on the top pairing, their righty’s are on their 2nd and 3rd pairing.
    – A team like Tampa is balanced due to Stralman, Girardi, Dotchin and Sustr.Stralman we know well but the other three are not high caliber defencemen, worth far less than the type of trade rumors you hear around Edmonton.With caveat they do have an incredible set of left handed d (Hedman, McDonaugh, Sergachev, Coburn).

    More good stuff.

    Thanks.

  67. Lowetide says:

    jtblack: What was the Oilers win loss record from February 1st on?

    They had an excellent penalty-kill and Connor McDavid went supernova and I still don’t think EDM was much over fake .500?

    On Feb 1:

    50gp, 22-24-4, 48 points

    After that:

    32gp, 14-16-2, 30 points

  68. blainer says:

    rickithebear:
    So.
    Blood plasma cancer!
    They think I have had it since 2013.
    Former Family doctor kept saying the fatigue and tooth ache pain in the bones was diabetes.
    Current dr. had test done and blood history figured in 3 months.
    Bone marrow tap showed non homogenous concentrations as high as 90%

    Dextrametazone zooms my sugars well beyond 30 such that in hospital getting 60-80 short acting insulin to get me to 25 glucose.

    Thursday was not a mild heart attack and no blood clots on the CT,s
    Compression and vertebrae fracturing in between T10 and T11 while walking.
    Caused the nerves around heart to have the stepped on chest feeling
    Shot heart rate to 130
    And blood pressure to 170 over
    All the initial possible heart attack treatment in trauma unit

    No infections but still a concern

    Tropins high enough to make them think it was heart damage.
    But later determined to be spine.

    Bone doctor and Oncologist making decision today on whether there will be a need
    To largely be in hospital bed for next months to eliminate the risk of further fractures on the body.

    Like that guy in the movie unbreakable.

    Today, I wait to here them say I can go home!

    Tough news there Ricki.. man a lot of people take their health for granted until one day they find out they are not healthy.

    Wish you the best of luck with your treatment and really hope you get better soon as I really do enjoy your posts..

  69. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: On Feb 1:

    50gp, 22-24-4, 48 points

    After that:

    32gp, 14-16-2, 30 points

    In the Final 32gp Connor McDavid had 52 points.

    The Oilers PK was 4th best.

    This means all other areas of the team were a collective pile of s***?

    The Goalering sewered EDM all year!

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: On Feb 1:

    50gp, 22-24-4, 48 points

    After that:

    32gp, 14-16-2, 30 points

    Thanks.

    Did you do that by hand or do you have a site?

  71. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: More good stuff.

    Thanks.

    7 of the 15 “Balanced” teams did not make the Playoffs???

    Is Balance LESS important than we alll believe?

    The most UNBALANCED team made it. (Philly)

    3 of the final 4 are “Balanced”

  72. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thanks.

    Did you do that by hand or do you have a site?

    http://dropyourgloves.com/Games/AnyDateStandings.aspx?Date=2018-2-1&League=1

  73. jtblack says:

    EDIT: 6 of the Final 8 teams were “Balanced”
    With Nashville running PK & Ellis 48 mins a night on the Right side.
    Vgs has Miller & Engelland on the RHD. I think Schmidt plays “off hand” – not 100% sure

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Offsidereview.com has an awesome date range function.

    I highly suggest it.Only two years of data though.

    Naturalstatrick has a date range function as well, tougher to use and get right, but workshops.

    Also,

    EDM 4v5 GA/60

    Oct 1 – Jan 31
    10.39 – NHL rank for time period – 31st – putrid

    Feb 1 – April 15
    5.35 – NHL rank for time period -the 4th – v.good

    The story is that McLellan “took control of the PK in mid-January” .What took him so long?

    They moved away from an aggressive PK that relied on everyone making good reads and rotating coverage based on who was chasing the puck carrier to the ol’ 4 man box and keep the shots to the outside.

    Basically going from man to zone coverage.

    This actually got me thinking……..since most NHL PP schemes are designed for beating a high pressure PK, maybe “going backwards to go forward” and playing a simple 4 man box zone would stymie a lot of PKs because they don’t play against that type of system often……

    Thanks for the back-up stats that support the 2nd overall percentage during the period.

    I think, yes, coaching, had something to do with it but also personnel changes (i.e less Drake, less Letestu, more Pakarinan) and an improved Talbot were material factors.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: In the Final 32gp Connor McDavid had 52 points.

    The Oilers PK was 4th best.

    This means all other areas of the team were a collective pile of s***?

    The Goalering sewered EDM all year!

    This is disappointing information.

    Of course, post-trade line had a depleted lineup with the Maroon sell-off and there were players shut down (Klefbom) – excuses but somewhat valid.

  76. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is disappointing information.

    Of course, post-trade line had a depleted lineup with the Maroon sell-off and there were players shut down (Klefbom) – excuses but somewhat valid.

    Yah. I think next year if McD can average 1.5 ppg+ & the PK is Top 5 in the League, EDM will be well positioned to earn a playoff berth.

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: 7 of the 15 “Balanced” teams did not make the Playoffs???

    Is Balance LESS important than we alll believe?

    The most UNBALANCED team made it.(Philly)

    3 of the final 4 are “Balanced”

    Without looking I’d guess that having “balance” along with “actual top 4 NHL Dmen” playing the most minutes is a good predictor of success and not “balance” alone.

  78. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Without looking I’d guess that having “balance” along with “actual top 4 NHL Dmen” playing the most minutes is a good predictor of success and not “balance” alone.

    +1. Totally agree. So then the data we need is WHICH team have a balanced Top 4?

    EDIT: I am going to drink beer & eat chicken wings. Is that Balanced?

  79. RonnieB says:

    jtblack: +1.Totally agree.So then the data we need is WHICH team have a balanced Top 4?

    EDIT: I am going to drink beer & eat chicken wings.Is that Balanced?

    To put it in hockey terms it would be balanced if you had an opposite-handed buddy to eat beer and drink chicken wings.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: +1.Totally agree.So then the data we need is WHICH team have a balanced Top 4?

    EDIT: I am going to drink beer & eat chicken wings.Is that Balanced?

    I’ve poured club soda over my whiskey on the rocks for the first time because I wanted to sit outside in the Sun and thought it was a better “hot weather” drink and I was right.

    Balance.

  81. Wilde says:

    jtblack: 7 of the 15 “Balanced” teams did not make the Playoffs???

    Is Balance LESS important than we alll believe?

    The most UNBALANCED team made it.(Philly)

    3 of the final 4 are “Balanced”

    Philly’s even crazier than that, they played a 20 year old on their superline!!

    Why didn’t he have to earn it?!?!

  82. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    No there’s a large amount of people throughout the season that expected Karlsson to fade back to obscurity and become a fraction of the player he demonstrated himself to be and his shot percentage will fade back to league average which I’m sure people on here expect.
    I’m saying he’s going to be a perennial 30-40 goal scorer and 70 point player. If you want to call that luck go ahead. I’m not going to say that.
    If someone has a reasonably fair bet I’d take it. Seems like people only want to bet on a 40 goal season or 25% shooting which is a stupidly unfair bet.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Further to my rant yesterday:

    This is just a small part of what Murat wrote today:

    The Golden Knights’ forecheck is a 2-1-2 wherein Vegas’ F1 and F2 pressure Winnipeg’s first pass as low as the goal line while F3 stays high in the offensive zone and tries to attack the pass recipient. It puts a tremendous amount of pressure on opposing defensemen, forcing both the defender with the puck and his first option as a reverse pass to make decisions as quickly as possible.

    That’s hockey.

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    No there’s a large amount of people throughout the season that expected Karlsson to fade back to obscurity and become a fraction of the player he demonstrated himself to be and his shot percentage will fade back to league average which I’m sure people on here expect.
    I’m saying he’s going to be a perennial 30-40 goal scorer and 70 point player.If you want to call that luck go ahead.I’m not going to say that.
    If someone has a reasonably fair bet I’d take it.Seems like people only want to bet on a 40 goal season or 25% shooting which is a stupidly unfair bet.

    You are on record saying that his SH% won’t regress much.

    I’d like to bet on that.

    What is the line?

  85. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    No I said the player won’t regress much. I never said shot percentage. Like I said I’d take 30 goals. The only part he got lucky was having Neal and Perron take heavy matchups and they may be gone and he got lucky he got paired with Marchessault.
    Please point out where I said shot percentage

  86. jtblack says:

    Wilde: Philly’s even crazier than that, they played a 20 year old on their superline!!

    Why didn’t he have to earn it?!?!

    what does Age have to do with Earning it? McDavid won the Art Ross as a 20 year old Should he have been on the 3rd line?

    Provorov is a super stud from the same 2015 Draft He can handle the 25 mins a night. He will be in the Norris convo very soon

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Without looking I’d guess that having “balance” along with “actual top 4 NHL Dmen” playing the most minutes is a good predictor of success and not “balance” alone.

    So not a 3rd pairing d-man playing in the top 4 on his off side?

  88. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Further to my rant yesterday:

    This is just a small part of what Murat wrote today:

    The Golden Knights’ forecheck is a 2-1-2 wherein Vegas’ F1 and F2 pressure Winnipeg’s first pass as low as the goal line while F3 stays high in the offensive zone and tries to attack the pass recipient. It puts a tremendous amount of pressure on opposing defensemen, forcing both the defender with the puck and his first option as a reverse pass to make decisions as quickly as possible.

    That’s hockey.

    I do believe Edmonton has the personnel to play this system. Especially with a couple speed adds 1 or 2 burners added would help. I watch Vegas a lot (in laws live there) Engelland & Miller are NOT fast Perron is NOT fast. Vegas has a mix of players. I REALLY believe the system is more important than the personnel (within reason).

    Sek Nurse Klef & Larsson are fast enough.

    The forward group is …. well, overall they are slow as shit. So maybe ; rethinking it; maybe we dont have enough speed up front.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    No I said the player won’t regress much.I never said shot percentage.Like I said I’d take 30 goals.The only part he got lucky was having Neal and Perron take heavy matchups and they may be gone and he got lucky he got paired with Marchessault.
    Please point out where I said shot percentage

    Right here:

    As long as Marchessault keeps feeding him those tasty morsels i would not expect his shot percentage to drop much

    Source:
    https://lowetide.ca/2018/05/14/shine-your-light-on-me/#comment-740946

    Do you want to bet on this or walk it back?

  90. who says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Top 4D, if everyone is healthy? Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Darnell Nurse. I think Kris Russell and Matt Benning will probably play lesser minutes if the others are healthy. Who plays RD on the second pair? Nurse is playing there at the WHC’s right now.

    ———————————–

    I absolutely hate this potential. This organization needs to find a way to get a true right defenceman for that 2RD.Having left shot d-men cover that spot needs to stop – we are making our players worse by asking them to play their offside.

    We know Russell is worse on the right side.We know Sekera is worse on the right side.I imagine Nurse will be worse on the right side as well.

    I’m all for reducing Russell’s responsibility and having him on the 3rd pairing but are we really going to ask a developing Darnell Nurse to play his off-side in the top 4? We still don’t know if Darnell will top out as a 2LD or he can handle 1LD minutes in the future and we are going to ask him to change positions?

    Darnell is still an average (at best) transitioner of the puck by pass – he will be that much worse on the right side.We need to improve our transition game, not make it worse.

    Yes, this is the position we are in and this is a main reason why, in my opinion, the priority this off-season is a real 2RD. It will allow the other d-men to be more successful and, as I’ve gone on about at length, will help the transition game which looked to me like the worst in the league last year and a huge issue.

    Yes, a leftie needs to be moved out to make this happen but it needs to happen.

    So who do you want to trade? Klefbom or Nurse?
    And what 2RD do you expect to get in return?
    Are you really willing to do whatever it takes to get a legit 2RD in the lineup next season?

  91. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Faces come out in the rain……..when you’re strange.

    No one remembers your name…….when you’re strange.

    Two — TWO — Doors tunes in one Spring!

    Clearly someone has taken LT’s stereo hostage and is holding it for ransom.

  92. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ve poured club soda over my whiskey on the rocks

    That is the most unbalanced thing I have ever heard.

  93. Wilde says:

    jtblack: what does Age have to do with Earning it? McDavid won the Art Ross as a 20 year oldShould he have been on the 3rd line?

    Provorov is a super stud from the same 2015 Draft He can handle the 25 mins a night.He will be in the Norris convo very soon

    I… thought my sarcasm was obvious.

    I’ve posted about this before, basically Konecny had equal results to 98 this year, third line scoring on the third line, and 1st line scoring on the first line.

    So of course, being in the interest of maximizing their roster and winning hockey games, Hakstol put TK on the first line.

    The result was 500 minutes won handily against top como.

    player – player – player ( TOI )

    GF – GA ( GF% )

    CF – CA ( CF% )

    SCF – SCA ( SCF% )

    HDCF – HDCA ( HDCF% )

    PDO ( SH% / / SV% )

    all 5v5

    Giroux – Couturier – Konecny ( 497:27 )

    33 – 19 ( 63.5% )

    501 – 411 ( 54.9% )

    240 – 187 ( 56.21% )

    102 – 70 ( 59.3% )

    1.022 ( 11.6% / / 90.6% )

    Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi ( 182:22 )

    8 – 4 ( 66.7% )

    213 – 176 ( 54.8% )

    116 – 84 ( 58.0% )

    47 – 32 ( 59.5% )

    1.031 ( 7.21% / / 0.959 )

    My non-scientific McDavid oiSh% normaliser is 10.21% as that’s his career average, so you’d actually expect the goals to be more like ~11 – ~7 based on Talbot saving 0.920 at 5v5, for ~61% GF.

    (That last part is just 5 seconds of projecting, feel free to disregard)

  94. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Depends on what you want to bet on. Not taking 25% and not taking 40 goals. Neal and Perron May not be there next year

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: So who do you want to trade? Klefbom or Nurse?
    And what 2RD do you expect to get in return?
    Are you really willing to do whatever it takes to get a legit 2RD in the lineup next season?

    I’d prefer to trade Russell, first, or Sekera, second. Of course we know about the NMCs hindering that ability (not necessarily quashing it, but potentially). There are also buyout options for both those players – that is not ideal but it is an option.

    I’ve expressed the type of trade of Klefbom that I think would be value – it would open up the cap space for a corresponding move to acquire a right shot D. Of course, a Klefbom trade, if required, could also be made directly for that right shot D.

    I don’t know who that right shot D is, there are dozens and dozens of them in the NHL, of varying abilities. I’m sure a few are available. I would like to target a guy like Pulock (as I don’t believe a Carlson signing or a trade for an Ellis or Parayko is reasonable).

    No, I’m not willing to do “whatever it takes” but I”m willing to do what is necessary within reason.

    To me its the #1 priority – others may have other opinions. It would be helpful if our GM didn’t do things like blow an extra $1.5M on the backup tender and very reasonably not have even upgraded.

  96. Woogie63 says:

    A buddy of mine rides his bike with Linden. Last week he told me the Oilers are sniffing around Virtanen.

  97. Munny says:

    Can the Bolts go 8 for 8 on the powerplay this game?

    This one was a horrible call, btw.

  98. Munny says:

    Woogie63:
    A buddy of mine rides his bike with Linden.Last week he told me the Oilers are sniffing around Virtanen.

    Van needs D. They drafted upside down like the Oilers did.

  99. Munny says:

    Caps finally kill one, find some legs and Connollly one times a puck past Vasi.

  100. Munny says:

    Killer goal from Point sucks all the mo out of the Russian machine.

  101. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woogie63:
    A buddy of mine rides his bike with Linden.Last week he told me the Oilers are sniffing around Virtanen.

    Awesome. A plug with heavy boots and a hard shot that hits the glass who struggles getting NHL hockey.

    The 10th and Bear I imagine cause he can play heavy. Strome isn’t enough of that.

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    rickithebear:
    So.
    Blood plasma cancer!
    They think I have had it since 2013.
    Former Family doctor kept saying the fatigue and tooth ache pain in the bones was diabetes.
    Current dr. had test done and blood history figured in 3 months.
    Bone marrow tap showed non homogenous concentrations as high as 90%

    Dextrametazone zooms my sugars well beyond 30 such that in hospital getting 60-80 short acting insulin to get me to 25 glucose.

    Thursday was not a mild heart attack and no blood clots on the CT,s
    Compression and vertebrae fracturing in between T10 and T11 while walking.
    Caused the nerves around heart to have the stepped on chest feeling
    Shot heart rate to 130
    And blood pressure to 170 over
    All the initial possible heart attack treatment in trauma unit

    No infections but still a concern

    Tropins high enough to make them think it was heart damage.
    But later determined to be spine.

    Bone doctor and Oncologist making decision today on whether there will be a need
    To largely be in hospital bed for next months to eliminate the risk of further fractures on the body.

    Like that guy in the movie unbreakable.

    Today, I wait to here them say I can go home!

    Via Con Dios Mr Bear

  103. jake70 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Faces come out in the rain……..when you’re strange.

    No one remembers your name…….when you’re strange.

    I think of the Echo and Bunnymen version from Lost Boys soundtrack. First year residence at Dal 1988, next door was the floor president….didn’t go to a damn class, just socialized all day and played that soundtrack from 10 am til midnight. Man I heard that song a thousand time.

  104. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Awesome. A plug with heavy boots

    Virtanen is fast, no?

    LT I’ve found an overager of intrigue:

    Oct. 98 LHW Severi Lahtinen.

    Scored a passable 41 in 40 in 2016-17 in Finnish Junior, and then exploded this year for 37 pts in 32 games in the Mestis, the 2nd tier league that Winnipeg plucked Sami Niku from.

    Only put up 4 pts in his 16 game Liiga stint, which I’d love to have the TOI totals for.

    That 1.16 is the strongest P/GP by a U20 in the league’s history, as most gifted young players blow past it after putting up a point in each game of a half dozen and are promptly promoted past it.

    Most young players look like they take about half of their production rate from Mestis to Liiga. which in Severi’s case would be a promising total.

    Doubt he’s on anyone’s board, so it’d like be a 5/6/7th round pick and Liiga next year, then Bakersfield 2019.

    Here’s how I found him: Wheeler likes Jesse Ylonen, who’s put up 27 in 48 in Mestis as Oct 1999.

    From his article on a 2015 redraft:

    “Niku was an October 1996 birthday in a 1997 draft class who’d played well in Mestis but hadn’t yet been able to translate that in Liiga. I won’t lose too much sleep about this one but it is a lesson in paying closer attention to second-tier pro leagues, where legitimate prospects are often found (I’m looking at you this year, Jesse Ylonen). Niku’s an outstanding player now and yet another in a long list of standout prospects the Jets have lined up to support a team that is better-positioned moving forward than any other in the NHL.”

    e: just noticed you have the top comment on Wheelers piece, lol. Leaving the excerpt for everyone unfamiliar.

  105. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’d prefer to trade Russell, first, or Sekera, second.Of course we know about the NMCs hindering that ability (not necessarily quashing it, but potentially). There are also buyout options for both those players – that is not ideal but it is an option.

    I’ve expressed the type of trade of Klefbom that I think would be value – it would open up the cap space for a corresponding move to acquire a right shot D. Of course, a Klefbom trade, if required, could also be made directly for that right shot D.

    I don’t know who that right shot D is, there are dozens and dozens of them in the NHL, of varying abilities. I’m sure a few are available. I would like to target a guy like Pulock (as I don’t believe a Carlson signing or a trade for an Ellis or Parayko is reasonable).

    No, I’m not willing to do “whatever it takes” but I”m willing to do what is necessary within reason.

    To me its the #1 priority – others may have other opinions. It would be helpful if our GM didn’t do things like blow an extra $1.5M on the backup tender and very reasonably not have even upgraded.

    I would wait a year. Gives them a lot more flexibility on which lefty they trade and allows Sekera and Klefbom to recover some lost trade value.
    Next season will not be sewered just because we don’t add another right shot dman. The Oilers have a lot of work to do before this item becomes number one on the “to do” list.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    I disagree re: the priority of the fix.

    Then again, I’m also against committing any material cap with term to top 6 wingers as I think there is where we can be patient and wait for prospect development and graduation to provide value contracts in the top 6.

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde: Virtanen is fast, no?

    LT I’ve found an overager of intrigue:

    Oct. 98 LHW Severi Lahtinen.

    Scored a passable 41 in 40 in 2016-17 in Finnish Junior, and then exploded this year for 37 pts in 32 games in the Mestis, the 2nd tier league that Winnipeg plucked Sami Niku from.

    Only put up 4 pts in his 16 game Liiga stint, which I’d love to have the TOI totals for.

    That 1.16 is the strongest P/GP by a U20 in the league’s history, as most gifted young players blow past it after putting up a point in each game of a half dozen and are promptly promoted past it.

    Most young players look like they take about half of their production rate from Mestis to Liiga. which in Severi’s case would be a promising total.

    Doubt he’s on anyone’s board, so it’d like be a 5/6/7th round pick and Liiga next year, then Bakersfield 2019.

    Here’s how I found him: Wheeler likes Jesse Ylonen, who’s put up 27 in 48 in Mestis as Oct 1999.

    From his article on a 2015 redraft:

    “Niku was an October 1996 birthday in a 1997 draft class who’d played well in Mestis but hadn’t yet been able to translate that in Liiga. I won’t lose too much sleep about this one but it is a lesson in paying closer attention to second-tier pro leagues, where legitimate prospects are often found (I’m looking at you this year, Jesse Ylonen). Niku’s an outstanding player now and yet another in a long list of standout prospects the Jets have lined up to support a team that is better-positioned moving forward than any other in the NHL.”

    e: just noticed you have the top comment on Wheelers piece, lol. Leaving the excerpt for everyone unfamiliar.

    From my readings Jake lifted weights and got big pipes and his strength and shot overwhelmed teens.

    He didn’t have the work ethic and Geen sorted him in Utica. A slow learner probably not as skilled as big when younger. Maybe he can skate but it hasn’t showed with conditioning issues

  108. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: From my readings Jake lifted weights and got big pipes and his strength and shot overwhelmed teens.

    He didn’t have the work ethic and Geen sorted him in Utica. A slow learner probably not as skilled as big when younger. Maybe he can skate but it hasn’t showed with conditioning issues

    For a third round sure.

  109. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Scungilli Slushy,

    No, Virtanen as a prospect always had speed as an asset.

    I’m not defending him as an NHL player but ‘heavy boots’ is a very misleading description.

    Pronman:

    “Virtanen is an all-engines-go type of player who put up a ton of goals in his second WHL season. His best attribute is his skating, and he may be the best skater in this draft class … He forechecks well, hustles to get his defensive assignments and plays hard on the penalty kill.”

    Button:

    “Excellent skater who has speed, quickness and power. Can beat defenders with his skating and when he gets an advantage, his size makes it almost impossible for a defender to get back on equal footing. Very strong shot and can beat goaltenders from out but also has the quickness in his hands to score in tight. Has the potential to be a dynamic scoring winger.”

    Redline Report:

    “Loaded with some of the best physical tools in this year’s entire class. He’s a tremendous skater with speed, balance, terrific agility for a big man, and an explosive initial burst. Also has a rifle shot with a lightning release. Has the size to drive through defenders, but needs to use his size to better advantage.”

  110. JimmyV1965 says:

    Virtanen for a third seems just about right. A second is too high I think. Maybe a third is too high.

  111. Wilde says:

    Canes VP of HO, Paul Krepelka, in an interview with Craig Custance, on Carolina’s draft position:

    CC: It seems to me, for what you guys need, I look at that roster and I say, ‘They need someone who can pop in 40 goals.’

    Krepelka: The one kid up there other than the defensemen has potential to do that. You have another kid in (Brady) Tkachuk who brings another element to the team that you need. The likelihood I would think of moving it is unlikely, but it’s not out of the question. It’s not 100 percent it’s not being dealt. Everything is open for business down here. If it makes sense and betters the team in the short and long term than it’s something that will be considered for sure.

    CC: If you want to be harder to play against, a Tkachuk always fits that mold.

    Krepelka: He’s going to help any team. He’s the type of guy this organization needs and doesn’t have. That style of player and skill and grit. The way he plays. There are some options at two. My guess is they would keep it. We’re listening. We’ll entertain anything.

    Imagine Tkachuk at 2.

    This is why you keep the pick. Tkachuk at 2 throws everything else off.

  112. digger50 says:

    Woogie63:
    A buddy of mine rides his bike with Linden.Last week he told me the Oilers are sniffing around Virtanen.

    Yes, I like this rumor

    I thought Virtanen looked good towards the end of this season.

    Always depends on what the deal is, but I think he could do well with a new team.

  113. digger50 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Virtanen for a third seems just about right. A second is too high I think.Maybe a third is too high.

    I would grab him very quickly for a third rounder. But doubt Vancouver does that. I think they him valued quite a bit higher.

    To me I thought Virtanen could bring Tkachuk type qualities to the wing. He’s got size, speed and aggression. I don’t know what happened with his development, but he has some tools if he can get back on track.

  114. digger50 says:

    On the new Tkachuk- would not surprise me a bit to see him go as the second highest forward. Expect Zadina falls. Tkachuk ahead of Walstrom as well.

  115. digger50 says:

    Just watched Canada vs Germany.

    What can you say about Leon?? Lol. Looks like a big fat floater out there.

    I love Leon by the way.

  116. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    Canes VP of HO, Paul Krepelka, in an interview with Craig Custance, on Carolina’s draft position:

    CC: It seems to me, for what you guys need, I look at that roster and I say, ‘They need someone who can pop in 40 goals.’

    Krepelka: The one kid up there other than the defensemen has potential to do that. You have another kid in (Brady) Tkachuk who brings another element to the team that you need. The likelihood I would think of moving it is unlikely, but it’s not out of the question. It’s not 100 percent it’s not being dealt. Everything is open for business down here. If it makes sense and betters the team in the short and long term than it’s something that will be considered for sure.

    CC: If you want to be harder to play against, a Tkachuk always fits that mold.

    Krepelka: He’s going to help any team. He’s the type of guy this organization needs and doesn’t have. That style of player and skill and grit. The way he plays. There are some options at two. My guess is they would keep it. We’re listening. We’ll entertain anything.

    Imagine Tkachuk at 2.

    This is why you keep the pick. Tkachuk at 2 throws everything else off.

    I think they would have tremendous interest in Kassian.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    As per Rishaug’s twitter:

    Sounds like Oilers may have locked up Swedish Defenceman Joel Perrson. 24 year old right shot from the Vaxjo Lakers.

    https://t.co/mrjtjCGTsh

    I don’t know the player, but I like the idea

  118. Gerta Rauss says:

    JimmyV1965: I think they would have tremendous interest in Kassian.

    Something involving Kassian for Justin Williams..?

  119. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    As per Rishaug’s twitter:

    Sounds like Oilers may have locked up Swedish Defenceman Joel Perrson. 24 year old right shot from the Vaxjo Lakers.

    https://t.co/mrjtjCGTsh

    I don’t know the player, but I like the idea

    Someone wake up SwedishPoster this instant!!

  120. Ari says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Quick googling shows that Vaxjo were champs last year with Persson leading the dmen in points.

    He was also 2nd(!) in team scoring the year previous.

    Also seems to take very few penalties.

    I’m impressed!

  121. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t know the player, but I like the idea

    As long as they’re not blowing their brains out for Faulk I’m OK with it

  122. Yeti says:

    “Persson is an offensive defenseman with a great shot from the point. With high-end puck skills and vision, he excels on the power play. Not a speedster, but owns decent mobility and can walk the blueline very well. On the downside, he is smallish and not much of a force in his own end.
    – Erik K. Piri (Elite Prospects, 2017)”

    Edit: listed as 170 lbs.

  123. Ari says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Amen to that

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    From accounts, there were a number of teams in on him and NSH was hard on him (unofficial accounts).

    Seems like a decent bet if the cost is buryable.

    Sounds like there is the possibility he plays 3RD and PP – still have a gaping hole at 2RD but I guess the current plan is for Benning to step up (didn’t work last year but maybe it works this year).

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