Keep Your Eyes on the Road, Your Hands Upon the Wheel

by Lowetide

When Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan arrived, my main concern was the two men would be slow to recognize Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and his subtle brilliance. Four summers later and the Nuge is still standing, with the general manager singing his praises and the coach moving him on to the No. 1 line. Seven years after his first NHL game, RNH is an overnight sensation.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

THE NUGE

There was probably some luck involved (Hall had more value, no doubt) but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is still an Oiler and that’s alright by me. In his final weeks of the season, Nuge played with Connor McDavid and the results were handsome. He was riding shotgun with 97 for 203 5×5 minutes, scoring 4-6-10 (2.95 5-on-5 per 60 scoring). Extrapolate that over an entire season (Patrick Maroon had 732 glorious 5×5 minutes with McDavid in 2016-17) and Nugent-Hopkins might deliver 35+ points on the top line at 5×5.

TOP 10 2018: STRATEGY OR TRAGEDY

I’ve been thinking about the 2018 draft this week and what might be available to Edmonton at No. 10 overall. We know Buffalo will take Rasmus Dahlin and Andrei Svechnikov will go to Carolina. Numbers three through five picks belong to Montreal, Ottawa and Arizona, and it’s reasonable to assume Filip Zadina, Brady Tkachuk and one of Quinn Hughes or Evan Bouchard go at those spots.

No. 6 overall is Detroit and I can see them grabbing Oliver Wahlstrom. Let’s say Hughes goes inside the top 5 overall, that might mean Vancouver grabs Evan Bouchard at No. 7 overall. Chicago offers a challenge, I’ll suggest Jesperi Kotkaniemi goes there. The Rangers often draft out of order, but I do think Noah Dobson fits there. That would mean Ty Smith, Joel Farabee and Adam Boqvist will be on the board when it comes time for Edmonton to choose. I’d be fine with any of the three, how about you?

PERSSON TO PERSSON

The scouting report on him is interesting and he plays in a fine league. Persson being a right shot, we immediately wonder if he can slot in on the depth chart behind Matt Benning and before Ethan Bear. Can he play second pairing in the NHL next season? Hold on, now. Let’s take this one step at a time.

  • Erik Piri, Elite Prospects: Persson is an offensive defenseman with a great shot from the point. With high-end puck skills and vision, he excels on the power play. Not a speedster, but owns decent mobility and can walk the blueline very well. On the downside, he is smallish and not much of a force in his own end. Source

NHLE, PROSPECTS DEFENSE ’17-18

He finished No. 2 in SHL scoring (defensemen) 2017-18, and he played just 17:06. He had 94 shots on goal, four of his six goals came on the power play and Persson’s goal differential at evens (34-17) is quality. His SHL player page is here.

I would caution you on two counts: This is not yet confirmed (although Rishaug is a most credible source) and there’s no guarantee Todd McLellan will trust him defensively. He does look like a substantial offensive option from the blue. The Vaxjo Lakers had a strong season (Elias Pettersson led the way offensively) and Persson was a big part of it. This is an encouraging piece of news.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’re on the air with a quality group and lots to discuss. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. We’ll chat about Andrej Sekera, Clare Drake and the World Hockey Championships.
  • Perry Stothart, Classic Landscapes. The Classic Landscapes Saturday show is back! We’ll talk about the show and what we’ll hear this year, and about what we can be doing in our backyards already.
  • Julian Edlow Draft Kings. We’ll chat about the NBA playoffs and fantasy basketball.
  • Theo Fleury. I had a chance to talk to Mr. Fleury yesterday and we’ll play the interview today. He’ll be in Edmonton May 25 to talk about hockey and his life after hockey.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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OriginalPouzar

At the end of a terrible PP, McDavid drops for Parayko for a bomb and it’s 1-0 Canada.

As an aside, a great pick battle win by Eberle outside the blue line started the play.

flyfish1168

Woodguy v2.0:
Richard S.S.,

Too many people blame Chiarelli for everything he’s done since he was hired.

I too get too much blame for the things I do.

Imo.

lol, WG at least things you do don’t hurt the Oilers. PC keeps killing our skill and depth.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Re: Perssen: sounds like he is possibly a less entitled Shultz. By entitled I mean he won’t get guarenteed minutes, and he won’t be entitled to 1st line pairings.

– So depending on ability, maybe used how Jultz should have when he started: sheltered 3RHD, with PP minutes.

Yeti

SwedishPoster: Heh, I nearly did miss my own wedding actually. It was a small courthouse wedding but still.

That’s story for another day though.

I got married in my own living room just to avoid any possibility of missing my own wedding 🙂

SwedishPoster

Yeti:
SwedishPoster,

You’re here at last! I was thinking it was a bit like being late to your own wedding…

Heh, I nearly did miss my own wedding actually. It was a small courthouse wedding but still.

That’s story for another day though.

SwedishPoster

Wilde: If I’m reading the room correctly re : Vaxjo, there’s some kind of exodus occurring, yeah?

I’d like to see him in the SHL for another year as well, see how he does when the team loses Petersson and others.

Yeah, they’ll lose a lot of good players this summer but they’ve been great at finding new talent every off season. They haven’t had much of a youth club, it’s slowly getting better, so they’ve had to rely on finding players elsewhere for their SHL team something that has caused fans of other teams to call them a “buying team” which in swedish team sports is a derogatory term for teams lacking homegrown players and instead paying for other teams talent. Having a good youth academy providing the pro team with players is the absolute ideal.

I personally think growing your own talent is fantastic and crucial for longterm success but I’m more in the “there are more than one way to skin a cat” category when it comes to improving your pro team.

Yeti

Woodguy v2.0,

I have no problem with people blaming Chiarelli for the things he does. Some of the bets he made have been poor, and not just with hindsight. They were poor bets from the get go and demonstrated poor talent evaluation.
I don’t like blaming Chiarelli for the things he /didn’t/ do, as that involves hypotheticals we can never quite be sure what other options were on the table.
But, just so you know, every time get a wood splinter, I blame you regardless.

Yeti

SwedishPoster,

You’re here at last! I was thinking it was a bit like being late to your own wedding…

Woodguy v2.0

Richard S.S.,

Too many people blame Chiarelli for everything he’s done since he was hired.

I too get too much blame for the things I do.

Imo.

russ99

Andy Dufresne:
“Not only did McDavid make Nugent-Hopkins better, but Nugent-Hopkins made McDavid better too. That has extreme value to the Oilers franchise, and it’s not something that’s guaranteed to happen with, say, Pacioretty, Hoffman or Skinner playing 1LW – even if it can be argued that those players are “better” than RNH.”
ArmchairGM,

Im not advocating trading RNH but if you were ever going to do it , it would/should be while his value is high.

They NEVER played RNH on McDavids wing until the season was almost over. So:

1) If you want to consider trading RNH you definitely want him to be preceived as a center. You definitely want to show he has offensive chops (play him with McDavid for a month). AND most importantly you definitley want to sell high. So the very things that make it attractive to keep him also make him attractive in the trade market.

2) From the days of Semenko playing on the Gretzky line. Even a pilon could score 20 goals playing withMcDavid.

So the pros to keeping RNH

1) 70+ points on McDavids wing
2) Versatility. Can revert to playing 2nd line center when required
3) PP witch
4) A known asset. You know exactly what you can expect from him on and off the ice and in the locker room (above average charachter)
5) Under control for 3 more years at prime age

Pros to trading Nuge:

1) He is at peak value.
2) 1st line centers ( even 1B/2A types) are almost as rare as first pairing D.
3) Reasonable contract, under control for 3 more years prime age

You say that Max Pacioretty has less value…..which is true due to age mainly and position played (LW) and the fact that hes only under control for 1 year.

So what would have to be included to balance a deal

1) high probability Patches will score a rate similar to or better than RNH on McDavids LW(In the 4 years prior to 2017-18 Patches averaged 35 goals and 60+ points for 4 consecutive years)
2) Patches at $1.5 Million less AVV
3) Oilers get MTLs 3ov(Zadina) MTL gets Oilers 10ov ( A Center)
4) the cap increase PLUS the $1.5m Savings PLUSdumping Kassian’s $2mallows us to procure a higher end 2RHD

If the intention is to play RNH as a first line LW…..and there is an option who can provide similar if not more offense on LW and secure Zadina…..I have to consider it.

Pacioretty is a year younger than James Neil and scores at a higher rate, both goals and points.

It might boil down to how much you value the player group that is at 9,10,11 in the draft.

If this was a deal with Carolina RNH +10th for Jeff Skinner + the 2ov……I’d certainly do that deal.

Interesting. As much as I want to see Nuge as our Kesler at center in the postseason 2-3 years from now, giving Connor 2 elite shooting linemates would be much better.

I still think Nuge at LW is a temporary fix for a long-term issue, giving Connor two NHL scorers who can also retrieve and continue the cycle after first sortie. This was still a problem with Nuge-Rattie.

If we want to go back to the old days, Connor still doesn’t have his Jari Kurri.

Wilde

SwedishPoster:
Persson is now confirmed according to local radio from his team’s area. I like the signing. True low risk, high reward signing.
Going from swedish third tier to one of the best D in the SHL to signing with an NHL club in such short time is crazy. A year ago more or less he was working a regular job as a teacher’s assistant outside of hockey.
Due to him making such massive leaps in a short time I’d say he could use another year in the SHL. On the other hand he’s shown an amazing ability to adapt to a higher level and his skill is evident so who knows, he’s clearly a quick learner. Thing is he wasn’t awful defensively either, he was paired with a strong and experienced defensive D and did well, though it’s important to note that he was playing for the most dominant team in the SHL in many many years so that obviously helps. Easier to look good on a powerhouse. That is not the Oilers, nor Bakersfield, so we’ll find out pretty quickly if he’s for real.

If I’m reading the room correctly re : Vaxjo, there’s some kind of exodus occurring, yeah?

I’d like to see him in the SHL for another year as well, see how he does when the team loses Petersson and others.

OriginalPouzar

Rasanen’s KHL tights have been traded to Moscow.

Don’t think that means much as he’s headed back ti Boston College next year I believe.

SwedishPoster

Persson is now confirmed according to local radio from his team’s area. I like the signing. True low risk, high reward signing.
Going from swedish third tier to one of the best D in the SHL to signing with an NHL club in such short time is crazy. A year ago more or less he was working a regular job as a teacher’s assistant outside of hockey.
Due to him making such massive leaps in a short time I’d say he could use another year in the SHL. On the other hand he’s shown an amazing ability to adapt to a higher level and his skill is evident so who knows, he’s clearly a quick learner. Thing is he wasn’t awful defensively either, he was paired with a strong and experienced defensive D and did well, though it’s important to note that he was playing for the most dominant team in the SHL in many many years so that obviously helps. Easier to look good on a powerhouse. That is not the Oilers, nor Bakersfield, so we’ll find out pretty quickly if he’s for real.

rickithebear

digger50:
Let’s forget about 2RHD

Can we trade for that Fleury guy?

King George an active poster on here pre exp draft grilled me on Fluery.
Clearly he liked him and the data I studied up to 2 yrs before exp draft had showed his play to be skater movement.

I had chosen to ignore goalies the last 2 years. Cause of the intense final demands of coal plant data chases. Some nights I re created the chalk board and window scenes from the movie the accountant. Accumulated and built the origional final project costing of 3 newest units in Atco fleet.
Broke down all the contracts identified the coal equipment the could be demoed and greenfield cost flow thru he PPA to province.

Structured up binder sets for every drawing for demo equipment.
Identified all loop, single line and critical and aux systems to be converted from coal to gas.

Created p&Id database for every piece of equipment.
Marked all coal exclusions and transfers to gas.broke into 2 separate groups.
Identified operation logic removals and changes to coal.
Al maintenance pm,s, lubrication programs, all modification to multi unit transfer schemes.

Found all the test not signed off by engineers at end of construction.
All test had failed and potential revenue streams.
You want to find the engineers and operators with failed due diligence these days.
Look at corporate heads of divisions.

Any how King George noticed Fluery had changed his scatter movement to phase 1 of goalie tracking.
Table hockey movement with the play resulting in superior hit goalie rates.
Ph2 I listed years ago corsi puck path identification.

What current goalie coaches call tracking.
But less than half of closed shot performance.

Talbots numbers are better!
Talbot does not have tha deepest HD d team in front of him.

rickithebear

Nate Schmidt Top 10 HD dman moves to perimeter with puck going below the red
Fails to cover schiefle on his HD side.
Fwd bury,s a 100% open shot.

Reminds me of Nurse all year!

System matters people.

Persson
Usually not interested in a top 10 offensive dman in a league.
Unless he is top 5 in unit goal differential at +ve 17

Got the best cancer genome results possible today.
Treatment stays the same.

Had a great convo today with my hematologist/oncologist dr. Slabby
Talked about my favourite unique winter runs.

– Skiing Captain jacks pillowed Kettle rocks in red mountain with late 90,s Kastle 223cm WC downhill skis. 2 red ski instructors followed me down the run. On my forth stop they came up and said you are making about 10 drops before you stop! I lifted up my 223 and said I forgot my Knesset phantom telemarks. But have rest of my gear. Tried a new challenge” they said we have skis for you. Skied with thier run knowledge all day.

– was down in the basement of former coke reps “coke bar original mid 80,s man Cave”
He just signed on as Frybe’s origional west Canada District Rep. Saw a picture of 5 guys with skis in front of Columbia ice fields. They skied it. 5 of us planned the run and skied it late 80,s. My Fishers delaminates on the back end at the bottom of the field.
Brought coke guy our picture in front of the field.
He started laughing, “We did not ski it. Just took the picture.you guys are fucking crazy.”

– 1984 spent 3 days in whitewater,taking on one of the ice field five’s challenge of trying new styles, blades, telemarks, alpine, and this.

https://www.vintagewinter.com/products/vintage-burton-performer-snowboard

“On these days of frustration, he would come up and say, “We will smoke the pipe (elk antler). Totems and still eagles.” Just me, a friend and a board.

– work doing north slope (Nabors) China sea (Bohai and Nanhai) Brazil (Duetag and Petrobras) Russia (Gazprom) KGB and Medvidev bros learning the gas drilling ropes for 18 months.
Developing massive multi rig contract with London office move coming in end of 90,s.
Mom collapsed getting on plane in Kelowna. Headed for 3 months in Morocco with dad, language student, archeological history student, Moroccan art history student.

Mom was to have brain surgery, (Grade 5 brain Cancer) rear left brain masses to be removed.
Was to die in surgery. Boss wanted me to finalize bid. “Fire me or lay me off”

West jet plane was full but sat with the stewardesses on the flight to Kelowna. The doctor came out of surgery. “We took a 1/4 of her brain and she is. Wide awake and speaking.

I spent 3 months on medical EI helping dad tchange moms diapers, teaching her to drink, eat, walk, develop and fine tune her motor skills. Christmas Day was 6 diaper changes on moms fabourite day of year.

Dad said “go ski at Silverstar”
Got on chair lift with 2 skiers from Germany.
They were amazed at how quiet it was.
And it cost 5 times less to fly and ski for 3 weeks her than in Europe.
They asked what I was going to ski.
Said I was going to try and get as much vert in a day possible.

Me and 2 Germans skied for a full day. To exhaustion.
No lift lines, down and go. On Boxing Day?
Beyond a full intense day helliskiing fatigue.
Had 2 beers each.
And said goodbye.
Most physical cathartic moment in my life!

Cancer makes you think about these moments.

JJ

Andy Dufresne says:
May 16, 2018 at 9:18 pm

JJ,

Would you take him over Landeskog and Scheifele in a re-draft?

—————–

It is hard to say without studying the WoodMoneys.
I think Nuge has been asked to carry more defensive role since Conner arrived and has been under/ poorly utilized 5×4. That has changed now that he is on Conner’s line. It is like the Oilers suddenly realized he has offensive skill.

Those two other players you mentioned are very good. Their styles are more in-your-face assertive than Nuge and therefore more easily noticed. I love watching players that make intelligent plays and make those around them better. For me, Nuge is one of those players.

I think he will play at a high level until he retires. The Oilers are lucky to have him and now so is Conner.

Subtle Brilliance.

trencan

Andy Dufresne: He moves a lot like JP. I think JP is actually a better skater/positional player……now if he could only perfect his shot…..

JP and Laine are completely different players. Laine is one dimensional player, JP has potential to be complete player. Many scouts before draft mentioned that Laine will be better now an JP in the future.

digger50

Let’s forget about 2RHD

Can we trade for that Fleury guy?

Biggus Dickus

flyfish1168:
All these rumours about Oscar& our 10th pick of this year for Rasmus Ristolainen. I feel this is a ridiculous trade This year’s draft has special meaning since we probably will not pick this high again we hope and this pick is 2020/21 draft protected. There is not much difference between Oscar and Rasmus besides the 1.4 salary differential and Oscars Contract being 1 year longer.This amounts to huge savings.PC needs to unload the NMC 1st and foremost not trade Oscar and his beautiful contract.

This big game hunting PC wants to go on should be stropped. We should remind him our depth and longevity on multiple years of playoffs is more important than 1 and out again.

I bet we are picking in the top 15 next year.

Andy Dufresne

JJ,

Would you take him over Landeskog and Scheifele in a re-draft?

Andy Dufresne

whale:
I have been watching Laine during playoffs and besides his one timer he is not playing a good top 6 roll. Eye test only and I know he’s young. I think he panicks too soon.

He moves a lot like JP. I think JP is actually a better skater/positional player……now if he could only perfect his shot…..

JJ

“When Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan arrived, my main concern was the two men would be slow to recognize Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and his subtle brilliance. Four summers later and the Nuge is still standing, with the general manager singing his praises and the coach moving him on to the No. 1 line. Seven years after his first NHL game, RNH is an overnight sensation.”

——————

LT,

When I watch RNH play, I see the same player you see. I love your description above.

I hope Nuge names his next horse “Subtle Brilliance”.

It is also my new nickname for our host.

flyfish1168

All these rumours about Oscar & our 10th pick of this year for Rasmus Ristolainen. I feel this is a ridiculous trade This year’s draft has special meaning since we probably will not pick this high again we hope and this pick is 2020/21 draft protected. There is not much difference between Oscar and Rasmus besides the 1.4 salary differential and Oscars Contract being 1 year longer. This amounts to huge savings. PC needs to unload the NMC 1st and foremost not trade Oscar and his beautiful contract.

This big game hunting PC wants to go on should be stropped. We should remind him our depth and longevity on multiple years of playoffs is more important than 1 and out again.

Wilde

Andy Dufresne: From an article at The Hockey News

“The biggest debates in hockey these days usually come from two opposing viewpoints of how best to analyze the game: the numbers vs. the eye test. The two groups are usually on the same page, but there are times when they’re worlds apart, and that’s usually when evaluations get interesting.

It’s in those instances where things are especially illuminating. Maybe there’s something missing from the equation or maybe there’s an aspect that goes unnoticed, but what’s usually clear is that neither side is perfectly right and there’s a place somewhere in the middle (or closer to a specific side) to co-exist. Current hockey data is primitive and the sport is so fast and dynamic that there’s bound to be things missed on both sides.”

Did you quote the wrong person?

DieHard

I have been watching Laine during playoffs and besides his one timer he is not playing a good top 6 roll. Eye test only and I know he’s young. I think he panicks too soon.

leadfarmer

Richard S.S.,

I’m sorry to hear you’ve been frozen since 1980. Since that time we’ve actually learned that the vast majority of ulcers are caused by a infection caused by bacteria named helicobacter pylori. When it was discovered no one believed it was possible so one of the discovers infected themself with the bacteria and got ulcers.

Andy Dufresne

Wilde: This is an (impressively) even more condescending than normal version of the ‘I care much less than you’ internet argumentative style.

What do people think others are behind their keyboards, seething animals smashing through their sentences, knotting up their insides?

All of the scenarios you described have their pros and cons, and all would have /different, individual/ fans that would be in favour of it, and those that wouldn’t.

If you’re homogenising a diverse set of opinion-holders and painting them all negatively, it is you and not them that are focusing on the negative.

If there was any realistic scenario with both upsides and downsides to occur, and the community was unanimously in favour without a single voice in criticism, now THAT would be a real problem.

From an article at The Hockey News

“The biggest debates in hockey these days usually come from two opposing viewpoints of how best to analyze the game: the numbers vs. the eye test. The two groups are usually on the same page, but there are times when they’re worlds apart, and that’s usually when evaluations get interesting.

It’s in those instances where things are especially illuminating. Maybe there’s something missing from the equation or maybe there’s an aspect that goes unnoticed, but what’s usually clear is that neither side is perfectly right and there’s a place somewhere in the middle (or closer to a specific side) to co-exist. Current hockey data is primitive and the sport is so fast and dynamic that there’s bound to be things missed on both sides.”

Andy Dufresne

LAS VEGAS Entertainment Capital of the World!

Tacky but entertaining……quite an opening ceremony!

Great Anthem Singer…….Jets Fans present and loud with “True North!!” strong and free……. Vegas fans respond with even louder gave proof through the “KNIGHT!!!” that our flag was still there……LET THE GAMEs BEGIN!!!

Wilde

Richard S.S.:
People worry about too, too much, it’s a wonder that ulcers aren’t a common and frequent occurence.One of the Oilers’ primary needs is a puck-moving Defenseman.If they are going for the very best they can acquire the LHD or RHD might not matter if they acquire a true #1.The Price must be one they are willing to pay, it may not be one fans are happy with.There is a Plan B, possibly a second pairing RHD or some such trade and that won’t make the fans happy either.Plan C is Free Agency and the risks it brings and it won’t make the fans happy either.Plan D is signing Joel Persson and guys like him, but that won’t make the fans happy.Strange thing that, unhappy fans.

This is an (impressively) even more condescending than normal version of the ‘I care much less than you’ internet argumentative style.

What do people think others are behind their keyboards, seething animals smashing through their sentences, knotting up their insides?

All of the scenarios you described have their pros and cons, and all would have /different, individual/ fans that would be in favour of it, and those that wouldn’t.

If you’re homogenising a diverse set of opinion-holders and painting them all negatively, it is you and not them that are focusing on the negative.

If there was any realistic scenario with both upsides and downsides to occur, and the community was unanimously in favour without a single voice in criticism, now THAT would be a real problem.

Andy Dufresne

If Head Coach Phil Hously (NHL Defenceman) is ok with losing Rasmus Ristolainen is that a red flag??

Anyway….Ive read elsewhere that Ristolainens fancy stats can be confusing.

His zone exits and entries are much worse than Klefboms.
But he plays big minutes and tough comp
His 5×4 play is sublime, his 5×5 numbers not that good.

Is this a reflection of playing on a poor team paired with poor Dmen?

Who is more valuable to the Oilers….Ristolainen or Barrie?

Munny

Oh dear. 35 seconds in.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0: Myers:

Relative defensive measures are ok

Relative offensive measures were bad

He defends ok, but offence dies when he’s on the ice.

A 6’6 RH version of Russell in terms of results.

Is that using this years data, or last year or a mix. Cause its like looking at 2 very different players. Watching Myers this year offensively inept is very low on list of things I’d describe him as. He probably would have been our top pp qb and offensive defenseman if he was on our team this year

Harpers Hair

Richard S.S.:
Too many people blame Chiarelli for everything he’s done since he was hired. In 2015, he knew he had Connor McDavid, a few really good Players and nothing much else.The prospect pool was empty or very close to it.The majority of the team had little trade value and occupied too much Cap.All he had to fill a huge number of gaping holes were draft picks.Blame the previous Executive for trashing the Team so badly that Chiarelli had to be better that perfect at everything he did.

One season later the Oilers got to the playoffs with uncommonly good health.Better officiating and who knows where it ends.Last season, the Oilers missed the playoffs with uncommonly bad health.Next season should be better health-wise, because it’s hard to be much worse. The Oilers know what they need; they know who’s available; they know how much Cap they have.They have a Plan A , B, C, D for every position of need.Teams are still playing, the Stanley Cup media freeze is coming.Still half of May, then June, then July and August has yet to come.In other words, it’s early.

There were 17 teams that lost more games to injury last season than the Oilers. They were about average.
Check innjuryviz.blogspot for reference.
You’ll see that the Oilers were particularly fortunate that injuries to their top players were few.

jtblack

ALSO: EDM acquired picks:

YAK 3RD
MAROON 4TH
NILSSON 5TH
PURCELL 3RD
SCHULTZ 3RD
LARSON (philip) 5TH

EDIT: PETER can pick up a 3rd round pick faster than he can hand out a No-Move Clause 😉

jtblack

Woodguy v2.0: NHL players and valuable assets in/out over China’s tenure:

IN (signed as FA or traded for)
Sekera
Russell
Reinhart
Gryba
Davidson
Larsson
Benning
Auvitu
Clendenning
Pardy
Caggiula
Lucic
Strome
Cammallari
Rattie
Aberg
Korpikoski
Letestu
Walker
Joikenen
Desharnais
Maroon
Kassian
Gustavsson
Talbot
Nilsson
Montoya

Other significant assets in:
None

OUT (traded or not retained)
Fayne
Marincin
Schultz
Davidson
Clendenning
Pardy
Auvitu
Reinhart
Oesterle
Hall
Eberle
Pouliot
Korpikoski
Letestu
Maroon
Lander
Pitlick
Hendricks
Slepeshev
Desharnais
Gustavsson

Other significant assets out:
16th 2015 draft
33rd 2015 draft
57th 2015 draft
79th 2015 draft

I’m only considering top 100 picks as “significant assets”to keep it somewhat simple.

Lemme know if I missed anything I did this on my phone.

I think the next step is to cancel off the players/assets on either side of the ledger and then weigh what is left.

Happy to tell everyone I did a ledger as WG suggested. At the same time I was cleaning the house (I know I know) & and getting interrupted cuase ppl stopping in buying stuff from SWAP & BUY.

BOTTOM LINE: I am more confused than when I began. And have nothing of value to share.

The only note is you should include to 2 – 3rd round 2019 picks for Maroon and Davidson. I ball parked a 3rd at 80th.

Richard S.S.

Too many people blame Chiarelli for everything he’s done since he was hired. In 2015, he knew he had Connor McDavid, a few really good Players and nothing much else. The prospect pool was empty or very close to it. The majority of the team had little trade value and occupied too much Cap. All he had to fill a huge number of gaping holes were draft picks. Blame the previous Executive for trashing the Team so badly that Chiarelli had to be better that perfect at everything he did.

One season later the Oilers got to the playoffs with uncommonly good health. Better officiating and who knows where it ends. Last season, the Oilers missed the playoffs with uncommonly bad health. Next season should be better health-wise, because it’s hard to be much worse. The Oilers know what they need; they know who’s available; they know how much Cap they have. They have a Plan A , B, C, D for every position of need. Teams are still playing, the Stanley Cup media freeze is coming. Still half of May, then June, then July and August has yet to come. In other words, it’s early.

Andy Dufresne

“Not only did McDavid make Nugent-Hopkins better, but Nugent-Hopkins made McDavid better too. That has extreme value to the Oilers franchise, and it’s not something that’s guaranteed to happen with, say, Pacioretty, Hoffman or Skinner playing 1LW – even if it can be argued that those players are “better” than RNH.”
ArmchairGM,

Im not advocating trading RNH but if you were ever going to do it , it would/should be while his value is high.

They NEVER played RNH on McDavids wing until the season was almost over. So:

1) If you want to consider trading RNH you definitely want him to be preceived as a center. You definitely want to show he has offensive chops (play him with McDavid for a month). AND most importantly you definitley want to sell high. So the very things that make it attractive to keep him also make him attractive in the trade market.

2) From the days of Semenko playing on the Gretzky line. Even a pilon could score 20 goals playing with McDavid.

So the pros to keeping RNH

1) 70+ points on McDavids wing
2) Versatility. Can revert to playing 2nd line center when required
3) PP witch
4) A known asset. You know exactly what you can expect from him on and off the ice and in the locker room (above average charachter)
5) Under control for 3 more years at prime age

Pros to trading Nuge:

1) He is at peak value.
2) 1st line centers ( even 1B/2A types) are almost as rare as first pairing D.
3) Reasonable contract, under control for 3 more years prime age

You say that Max Pacioretty has less value…..which is true due to age mainly and position played (LW) and the fact that hes only under control for 1 year.

So what would have to be included to balance a deal

1) high probability Patches will score a rate similar to or better than RNH on McDavids LW (In the 4 years prior to 2017-18 Patches averaged 35 goals and 60+ points for 4 consecutive years)
2) Patches at $1.5 Million less AVV
3) Oilers get MTLs 3ov (Zadina) MTL gets Oilers 10ov ( A Center)
4) the cap increase PLUS the $1.5m Savings PLUS dumping Kassian’s $2m allows us to procure a higher end 2RHD

If the intention is to play RNH as a first line LW…..and there is an option who can provide similar if not more offense on LW and secure Zadina…..I have to consider it.

Pacioretty is a year younger than James Neil and scores at a higher rate, both goals and points.

It might boil down to how much you value the player group that is at 9,10,11 in the draft.

If this was a deal with Carolina RNH +10th for Jeff Skinner + the 2ov……I’d certainly do that deal.

JimmyV1965

Scungilli Slushy: There are no absolutes in life, we know and instinctively know this.

For whatever reasons PC has made two awful trades, one bad trade, and gotten better as the stakes became lower.

I have no idea if he can change. Or change what he does.

Still every day opportunity exists to get better. Persson is a nice add if done; many young D rapidly reassessing summer training I’m sure.

I’m really on the fence with Chia. He’s clearly shown an inability to negotiate trades and contracts. Yet he’s done a fine job at the amateur draft and building up the prospect pool. Bakersfield will look much different next year and Chia deserves credit for that.

I agree that very few things in this world are black and white. There’s always gray areas. The idea that trading the 10OV is a disaster doesn’t make sense to me. If the right deal comes along it might make complete sense to trade the pick.

I’m just trying to figure out where I slide in on the idiot-o-meter.

Scungilli Slushy

JimmyV1965: I’m a little unclear here. Are people idiots for defending Chia? Or are they idiots when he trades Klef and 10OV for Risto? Or are they idiots when all there’s left on the team is McDavid and 30 AHL players?

There are no absolutes in life, we know and instinctively know this.

For whatever reasons PC has made two awful trades, one bad trade, and gotten better as the stakes became lower.

I have no idea if he can change. Or change what he does.

Still every day opportunity exists to get better. Persson is a nice add if done; many young D rapidly reassessing summer training I’m sure.

Richard S.S.

People worry about too, too much, it’s a wonder that ulcers aren’t a common and frequent occurence. One of the Oilers’ primary needs is a puck-moving Defenseman. If they are going for the very best they can acquire the LHD or RHD might not matter if they acquire a true #1. The Price must be one they are willing to pay, it may not be one fans are happy with. There is a Plan B, possibly a second pairing RHD or some such trade and that won’t make the fans happy either. Plan C is Free Agency and the risks it brings and it won’t make the fans happy either. Plan D is signing Joel Persson and guys like him, but that won’t make the fans happy. Strange thing that, unhappy fans.

JimmyV1965

v4ance:
@dellowhockey

Interesting listening to Rishaug speculating that the Oilers will go hard for a big name D; suggested Klefbom + 10 for Risto as an example.

At this rate, by the time Chiarelli is relieved, we’ll have McDavid and 30 AHLers on the roster and some idiots will still be defending him.

I’m a little unclear here. Are people idiots for defending Chia? Or are they idiots when he trades Klef and 10OV for Risto? Or are they idiots when all there’s left on the team is McDavid and 30 AHL players?

Woogie63

–hudson–: Sadly it seems this is the case.That’s one very nice thing about the Athletic model.

What was the old clickbait?I definitely won’t be following Rishaug, Matheson or Spector on twitter.Will not click their articles either.

The civil discourse is one of the things that really works at this site.

bendelson

Woogie63: Clicks are the new editor

Integrity be damned…

Mr DeBakey

godot10: It is why Chiarelli always feels the need to lose value in big player trades, and why it takes McLellan nearly 3 years to try Nugent-Hopkins with McDavid.

I’ve seen this RNH thing a couple of times.
As a guy who thought McLellan was the wrong hire from before he was hired, I don’t think this is a fair criticism.
Its not like the Oilers have been laden with competent veteran Centermen to play RNH’s minutes until recently.
And, its not like Maroon was terrible on McDavid’s wing.

PS
I don’t disagree on his relative unimaginative-ness.

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy v2.0: I cannot recognize humour in written form very well.

I don’t know posters well enough so I take everything on face value unless the post makes it very clear the tongue is in cheek.

It’s because you’re a dink.

?

Biggus Dickus

ArmchairGM:
In his final weeks of the season, Nuge played with Connor McDavid and the results were handsome. He was riding shotgun with 97 for 203 5×5 minutes, scoring 4-6-10 (2.95 5-on-5 per 60 scoring). Extrapolate that over an entire season (Patrick Maroon had 732 glorious 5×5 minutes with McDavid in 2016-17) and Nugent-Hopkins might deliver 35+ points on the top line at 5×5.

******

In the last 15 games of the season, Nugent-Hopkins played 1LW with McDavid – except for 2 games he missed with a minor injury. The chemistry was instantaneous and incredible. During those games, here was the scoring pace (projected over 82 games) for each player:

McDavid: 82, 63-107-170 +69
Nugent-Hopkins: 82, 44-50-94 +88

Keep in mind that this was with either Pontus Aberg or Ty Rattie on the right wing. In the two games RNH missed during that torrid stretch, McDavid went 0-0-0 (-5).

Not only did McDavid make Nugent-Hopkins better, but Nugent-Hopkins made McDavid better too. That has extreme value to the Oilers franchise, and it’s not something that’s guaranteed to happen with, say, Pacioretty, Hoffman or Skinner playing 1LW – even if it can be argued that those players are “better” than RNH.

Keeping in mind that lots of players have been hot and cold with McDavid. Yakupov, Eberle, and Maroon all jump to mind. I highly doubt that that combo will become the definition of sustainability.

Mr DeBakey

Woodguy v2.0: Belov had slow boots but I don’t argue much with results
He clashed with Eakins iirc and that probably affected his TOI later in the season.

I always thought Belov was overplayed in the early part of the season and then ran out of gas.
Its opposite of the Hejda Outcome, spot duty til Xmas then turn ’em loose.
These guys are used to playing 56 game seasons and then are asked to go straight to 82 against bigger, faster, Better players.

Pink Socks

Woodguy v2.0,

Missed the 2 third round picks in for Maroon & Davidson, then minus one of them for Marody in.

Woodguy v2.0

Scungilli Slushy: Like it matters. One would think you’d have these details down by now.

Oh, what does your machine say about Myers?

Myers:

Relative defensive measures are ok

Relative offensive measures were bad

He defends ok, but offence dies when he’s on the ice.

A 6’6 RH version of Russell in terms of results.

Pink Socks

godot10:

And Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, both who failed in their first NHL trials.

Agreed on all except the last piece. JP and Yamamoto have not failed, TMac has. The entire blame goes directly on the head coach for the Yamamoto experiment lasting 9 games and JP not playing consistently with any one linemate.