Flaming June

We are less than two full weeks from June, the month we expect the Edmonton Oilers to “bring the crazy” and continue the tradition of trading away precious gold for specific pieces of silver. Names we have been discussing for some time are now being used as discussion points by national media and those in other NHL cities. These names (and the No. 10 overall) are being mentioned because they have two things: Value, and a lesser duplicate on the roster.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

Photo by Rob Ferguson

2009 HARVEST MOON

By 2009 I had graduated from “Draft Summary” to “Shoot the Moon” on the Sunday night post of draft weekend, still no Harvest Moon in sight. Seven picks, went like this.

  • RD1, 10th overall: L Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson, Timra IK (SEL). Top winger available in the draft fell into the Oilers laps at  No. 10. Immediately the best player in the system and represents a big part of this team’s future. Already playing pro hockey.
  • RD2, 40th overall: C Anton Lander, Timra IK (SEL). Two-way center is Magnum PS’s linemate and a quality prospect. Words like “character” and “work ethic” are woven into his scouting report and overall this is viewed as a quality pick. Already playing in pro hockey.
  • RD3, 71st overall: D Troy Hesketh, Minnetonka HS (Minn). Defender grew a couple of inches late and rode a gathering buzz into the 3rd round. From Minnetonka HS, he will eventually find his way to Wisconsin (NCAA) but has to be considered a long term project. Unlikely to see pro hockey until 2012 (or later).
  • RD3, 82nd overall: R Cameron Abney, Everett Silvertips (WHL). Knuckle-dragger. He can skate and is an exceptional fighter. If this was the 1970’s he’d have a career. Turned 18 in May, unlikely to see pro hockey until 2011.
  • RD 4, 99th overall. D Kyle Bigos, Vernon Vipers (BCHL). A big, bruising defender who is strong along the wall and in front of the net. Has an exceptional shot. He’ll attend Merrimack (NCAA) this fall and is 20 years old. Could turn pro in 2011 or 2012.
  • RD 4, 101st overall. R Toni Rajala, Ilves (Fin Jr). 19 points in 6 games at the U18 WJC’s. Fiesty player, scored well in Fin (Jr) and he sounds like a better Tony Salmelainen. Plays tough despite lack of size. Turns 20 in 2011, but could turn pro in the SM-LIIGA much sooner.
  • RD 5, 133rd overall. G Olivier Roy, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL). Fine athlete, quick glove, extremely competitive. Despite draft position looks like a quality prospect. Should turn pro in 2011.

PERSONAL OPINION

Every once in awhile, I like to give you my personal feelings on the Oilers summer and what a good eight weeks might look like. My personal opinion: This isn’t the season to go crazy with trades, but it would be wise to make one big (and shorter term) move in free agency.

Keep your powder dry, draft your list, see if you can buy short-term free agents who can help you next season. Maybe find a useful piece for the long haul (perhaps Czarnik or MPS in the scenario below), graduate Puljujarvi to the skill lines and move Kailer Yamamoto up from Bakersfield when he’s forcing the issue (and that may not take long).

This is what I’d like to see, we can quibble over details (you may prefer Yamamato on the roster, or maybe Kassian traded so the club can afford James Neal or JVR) and specific procurement targets. I’d be fine with Patrick Maroon returning if the team had more fast trains. I like Czarnik a lot, pleased to see Scott Cullen include him in his offseason game plan. I moved Jesse Puljujarvi up, there are lots of other options but he’s the most promising and I think Rattie will likely need replacing before the big Finn on the skill lines.

Center gets no help, that locks Jujhar Khaira in so maybe you add a center but that’s something to discuss. I included Ethan Bear as No. 7 defenseman, mostly because I can’t settle on any player currently on the roster for the position. I think the cap totals are correct, but the royal wedding is mere hours away so maybe my brain isn’t working.

BRUINS PROSPECTS

The item I linked to above re: The Bruins is from Joe Haggerty of SportsBoston, who drills down on the idea of Krug to the Oilers.

  • Haggery on Bruins acquiring Oscar KlefbomKrug may factor into this discussion as a big-name, offensive D-man who would be deadly with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but you can be sure that Edmonton assistant GM Keith Gretzky would be trying to recoup some of the prospects that he drafted while with the B’s as well. If Edmonton was willing to move their No. 10 overall pick as well as Klefbom, that could really be an enticement for the Bruins to give up a few valuable assets to make a deal.

I’m not interested in rehashing the idea of trading Oscar Klefbom (mentioned it in an article for The Athletic February 23) but the ‘prospects from Boston’ mention by Mr. Haggerty is a wrinkle we can pursue. As a Bruins fan, these prospects are pretty familiar to me, not sure how many of the NHL-ready group Boston would be willing to deal.

  • L Jake DeBrusk was touted as a future scoring winger, don’t know many who said he would arrive at 21 (70, 16-27-43). He’s a determined player, won a lot of battles and then finished them with skill. Bruins aren’t trading him.
  • LC Danton Heinen has already posted a solid NHL debut (47 points in 85 NHL games). He’s the top NHL-ready talent I can see being available from Boston.
  • LC Ryan Donato is a talented offensive player, soft hands and a natural ability to be in the right spot. Opportunistic, they used to call it. I suspect Bruins consider him a keeper.
  • RD Brandon Carlo emerged quickly after he was drafted, based on speed and the ability to play defense. He’s a shutdown type, can pass the puck and would absolutely be a Chiarelli-type player. Missed the end of the season and playoffs with a fractured ankle.
  • RC Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson is a pretty damned good two-way center prospect. He scored 32 points in 52 AHL games as a 20-year old rookie pro this past season. Oilers would be interested in him.
  • LC Trent Frederic was a surprise first-round selection but the two-way center provides more offense than his draft day scouting report implied. He’s a big power center and might be NHL-ready sometime in ’18-19.
  • L Anders Bjork is a good skater, solid two-way skills and delivered more offense in college than expected. 12 points in 30 games during his NHL debut, lost time to injury.
  • LD Jakub Zboril is a great skater, two-way ability and his draft day scouting report suggested offense would be part of his resume (Red Line compared him to Francois Beauchemin).
  • R Zach Senyshen spiked in his draft season and had the Bruins skill set (big, skilled, fast, physical). Hasn’t delivered (66, 12-14-26 in his AHL debut) but the club still believes in him based on reports.

The idea of trading Klefbom and No. 10 while acquiring Torey Krug plus prospects is both Chiarelli-like (Oilers are giving up a brilliant contract for a lesser one, and No. 10 overall for a more NHL-ready player with a lower ceiling) and fascinating. I think the Oilers would be wise to keep both Klefbom and the pick. One thing history teaches us: Whatever the deal, Edmonton is unlikely to get 100 cents on the dollar. As I mentioned yesterday, based on previous June trades, Oscar and 10 for Krug and Danton Heinen represents expected value if not reasonable value.

I think that’s a fair estimate of what we may be looking at with the big trade of summer. The one thread running through my mind about the general manager: He has every right to remain patient on his draft picks. If you’re looking for three wingers to play with 97-29-93 in some order on the top two lines, the answers might be Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto. It should not be considered a waste of time if Edmonton misses the playoffs next spring but delivers two quality right wingers for the next decade.

In reality, Peter Chiarelli is going to acquire a substantial puck mover and that’s going to cost some assets. It would be best if he waited for the market to come to him. The past informs the future.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

240 Responses to "Flaming June"

Newer Comments »
  1. Cassandra says:

    Honest question. If you pay McDavid 25 million dollars, what does the rest of the roster look like?

    Do they make the playoffs?

    Are they the worst team in the league?

    That number is so out of bounds I would genuinely like to know how it is calculated.

    Similarly the idea that paying McDavid the max on his RFA contract would represent good value is plainly false. While I agree that stars are underpaid relative to the scrubs and bad players (Lucic) so long as every other team is underpaying their stars by paying them half or 2/3 of the max, then the Oilers would be losing in comparison to them.

    McDavid is the best player in the world. Of that, there is no question. But big contracts for him and Draisatl led the Oilers to trade Eberle for Strome, downgrading their roster. The Oilers didn’t win when he was on an ELC. They have limited options (see above) with him making 12.5 million. 15 million would only make it worse.

    There is a reason no one makes offer sheets. They are lose-lose propositions because no one can afford the big contract plus losing all those draft picks.

    I am fine with the contract. It is better than the silly deal the Sabres signed Eichel. However, there is no way you can spin it as great value relative to other RFA contracts.

  2. Woogie63 says:

    We have zero drafted and developed players on next year’s Oilers team from our 2006 to 2010 draft.

    This is important because these players would be 26-30 years old next season, in the prime of their careers. They would have grown up in our system, believed in our system and helped the next generation of player become Oilers.

    Klefbom is drafted and developed and now a very good pro, I hope we are see the value of homegrown talent.

  3. murphy says:

    The talk of the oilers being desperate this summer is very scary. I think i have figured out petes trade style and it is truly depressing.

    When he goes hunting for a trade, he pre decides the assets he is willing to give up, then he sticks with those assets going out, no matter the return. Examples:
    -pete decides he is trading tyler seguin, once decided, he accepted the package Dallas offered, it didn’t matter the return.
    -pete decides he wants dougie hamilton (great idea!). He then offers the 1st and 2nd round picks for him, boston trades with calgary out of spite and he then turns around and uses the same package on griffin reinhart.
    -pete decides he is trading one of the steve austins for a RHD. Rumors fly around of potential deals for PK subban and theres even a rumor of a draft floor deal failed when he decides to use the 4th overall pick. A few days later pete trades taylor hall tor adam larsson.
    -pete decides he is trading jordan eberle. It sounds like colorado is interested but hesitant to give up tyson barrie one for one. Pete goes back to the table with snow for some reason and travis yost reports the deal is eberle for de hann and strome. The islanders know petes game and decide they won’t give up de hann but only strome. Pete pulls the trigger.
    -the same can be saif for all of his trade deadline selling deals. Selling off justin schultz for a 3rd which seemed low, selling maroon for a 3rd instead of just keeping him around when he had no value, etc.

    Now the truly terrifying part is that in the gun fight that is NHL GMS negoiating, pete is walking in with his butter knife again. The whole league knows that he is willing to trade klefbom (at his lowest value), the 10th overall pick (which could see a really nice player slip to), and jesse (who is still developing and showing great signs). Pete is now committed to selling those assets for his perceived need for a RHD who brings offense. Or a LHD if no one offers a RHD. He now waits for whatever the real GM’s bring to him for an offer. That will be the return, what the other gms offer. Nothing more, nothing less.

    Now i know why i am becoming such a big knights fan….

  4. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: We already rejected this idea in the last post.

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    That Cullen:
    – “It was a dubious decision from the get-go for the Oilers to sign Lucic to a long-term deal in the summer of 2016”
    – “The Oilers couldn’t help themselves from signing Kris Russell to a four-year contract last summer, and he provided the expected results.”

    I think I’m sending him telepathic hockey thoughts.
    Also, I wonder if he’s aware that Brandon Pirri played only 2 NHL games last year?

  6. maudite says:

    If the possibility of seattle coming aboard in the next couple season is more than a remote possibility: That pick isn’t part of any sensible plan for a GM worth a grain of salt. While GM’s are less likely to get as fleeced in the process, upon review of Vegas’s amazing season 1, I can’t see many teams drafting in the top 10 not better off longer term holding onto picks.

    The value added long term of any expansion proof 1st round picks is worth far more than anything I’ve seen suggested as expected return.

    If Klefbom and that pick are the answer.

    Someone needs to be sent to the glue factory sooner than later as they have outlived their usefulness to make executive decisions that stand a chance of finally removing this franchise from being the butt of a long and terrible joke.

  7. Cassandra says:

    Nice article at the Athletic on what the Leafs should do to acquire a center, mentioning Czarnik (and Nick Petan). The Oilers should steal from this idea, both look like good players who haven’t been given an opportunity.

    I also like the idea of taking on a bad contract from another team in exchange for a young, cost controlled, player (the Teravainen type trade). Unfortunately, because they have so many bloated contracts, the Oilers are the target of that kind of trade, not the beneficiary.

    Realistically, the Oilers have no good options other than the Czarnik and Petan route.

  8. Woogie63 says:

    Cassandra:
    Honest question.If you pay McDavid 25 million dollars, what does the rest of the roster look like?

    Do they make the playoffs?

    Are they the worst team in the league?

    That number is so out of bounds I would genuinely like to know how it is calculated.

    Similarly the idea that paying McDavid the max on his RFA contract would represent good value is plainly false.While I agree that stars are underpaid relative to the scrubs and bad players (Lucic) so long as every other team is underpaying their stars by paying them half or 2/3 of the max, then the Oilers would be losing in comparison to them.

    McDavid is the best player in the world.Of that, there is no question. But big contracts for him and Draisatl led the Oilers to trade Eberle for Strome, downgrading their roster.The Oilers didn’t win when he was on an ELC.They have limited options (see above) with him making 12.5 million.15 million would only make it worse.

    There is a reason no one makes offer sheets.They are lose-lose propositions because no one can afford the big contract plus losing all those draft picks.

    I am fine with the contract.It is better than the silly deal the Sabres signed Eichel.However, there is no way you can spin it as great value relative to other RFA contracts.

    Is Jordan and Strome that different of VALUE.

    Eberle has played in 588 games and has 2 points in play-off games, he not particularly fast, he is light on the wall, and cheated for offense so often a structured coach could only play him on a third line… I know he is playing second line on a non play-off team.

    Strome has played 340 games and has 8 points in the play-offs, not particularly fast, he is light on the wall and cheats for defense so he plays on the third line.

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dug into Krug a bit the other day on twitter.

    Mostly how BOS deployed their Dpairs.

    This is how BOS deployed their Dpairs last year:

    5v5 TOI% vs. Elite Forwards
    Chara 49%
    McAvoy 43%
    Carlo 32%
    Miller 29%
    Grzelcyk 26%
    Krug 26%
    McQuaid 26%
    Holden 25%

    Cassidy deployed his Dpairs like DeBoer did in SJS and Hynes did in NJD. Throw one pair to the wolves to give cover to the other 2 pairs.

    It works when you have an Elite Dman like Chara/Vlasic.

    What this did to Krug though is it made his minutes into a 3rd pairing Dman, not a 2nd pair as its widely reported.

    I’ve found over the 3 years of Woodmoney that a line in the sand between 2nd and 3rd pair (imo) is ~28%.

    McLellan deployed a “top 4” and bottom pair last year :
    5v5 TOI% vs Elite Forwards
    Larsson 35%
    Nurse 35%
    Klefbom 32%
    Russell 31%
    Gryba 30%
    Bear 29%
    Benning 25%
    Davidson 24%
    Auvitu 19%
    Sekera 19%

    So you can make an argument that Krug’s results should be compared to other 3rd pairing Dmen, not 2nd pair.

    I’ve posted some Dmen metrics here from time to time and I always start with this warning:

    “3rd pair Dmen tend to look good via shot/goal metrics so balance their results with QoC”

    If the trade is for Krug + I am unsure at this time if you can expect similar results playing 2nd pair in EDM.

    2nd pair is a pretty tough spot on EDM as you usually see close to what the first pair does in terms of QoC, but you get less help.

    Let’s see if Claude Julien deployed BOS Dcorps the same way:

    16/17
    5v5 TOI% vs Elite Forwards
    Chara 39%
    Carlo 37%
    McQuaid 28%
    Krug 25%
    K.Miller 23%
    C.Miller 19%

    15/16
    5v5 TOI% vs Elite Forwards
    Chara 41%
    McQuaid 33%
    Trotman 33%
    K.Miller 33%
    Krug 26%
    Morrow 22%
    Seidenburg 20%

    It looks to me that being in the shadow of Zdeno Almighty has given him the QoC of what I would normally consider to be a “3rd pairing Dman”

    I’m not saying he can’t play top 4 on a team like EDM where a much larger % of this TOI will be against the better players, but I’m saying he hasn’t done it yet.

    I’ll dig more into Krug keeping his QoC in mind……

  10. maudite says:

    Woogie63: Is Jordan and Strome that different of VALUE.

    Eberle has played in 588 games and has 2 points in play-off games, he not particularly fast, he is light on the wall, and cheated for offense so often a structured coach could only play him on a third line… I know he is playing second line on a non play-off team.

    Strome has played 340 games and has 8 points in the play-offs, not particularly fast, he is light on the wall and cheats for defense so he plays on the third line.

    I’m okay with this trade if it was part of a larger series of deals. But to sit on cap space and sign Russell to a contract that overpays from every angle of options available (term, cost, trade clauses). was the last day I had any patience for almost any discussion regarding giving chia the benefit of the doubt ever again.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: Is Jordan and Strome that different of VALUE.

    Eberle has played in 588 games and has 2 points in play-off games, he not particularly fast, he is light on the wall, and cheated for offense so often a structured coach could only play him on a third line… I know he is playing second line on a non play-off team.

    Strome has played 340 games and has 8 points in the play-offs, not particularly fast, he is light on the wall and cheats for defense so he plays on the third line.

    Is Tom Kuhnhackl and RNH that different of VALUE?

    Khunhackl has 7 playoff points and 2 STANLEY CUP RINGS
    RNH has 4 playoff points an NO RINGS

  12. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra,

    You have framed the value issue into comparing McDavid to other RFA contracts. Consider where the RFAs are at that point in their careers when they sign that contract – are they generally the best player in the world? No. So this suggests that McDavid is the exception to the norm.

    The Blackhawks won multiple cups with contracts, that at the time where lauded, but now seem stupid that they’ve run out of decent prospects to prop up said contracts. Value is a relative term. Everything is good value as long as you win.

  13. anjinsan says:

    murphy,

    A compelling case. And, if so, horrible. The picture of a stupid, bull-headed idiot.

    It’s only in the dinkie-think trades where you see competence. The big deal trades are league-wide laughing-stock worthy.

    And you may have captured the psychology behind it. He’s the kind of manager whose purchasing power you cap at a low level and require senior management approval on anything above that level. Viewed this way, Chiarelli is in waaaaaaaaayyyyy over his head — that is exactly what is going on, isn’t it? And he has no business in the strategic building department because he simply doesn’t have the vision. Phoo-ey.

    Thank him for his service and send him onto a new career.

  14. innercitysmytty says:

    maudite,

    This exactly! I can understand the rationale for some of his moves if they’re part of a series of moves. But it’s like every time he makes the first move he forgets the next step. None of the trade pieces being discussed as going out this summer should unless they’re part of a deal that’s a clear win. That won’t happen so this won’t end well.

  15. jm363561 says:

    If Ethan Bear is 7D we are doomed. A good prospect (who should not be sitting in the press box as 7D) but nowhere near NHL ready. Eric Gryba will not often be confused with Nicklas Lidstrom but rarely let the Oilers down, but Blender Todd won’t play him. Mantha, Lagesson and Simpson? Really? Is Brandon Davidson available …. again? I guess we will wait for those shrewd late September pick ups taking advantage of cash strapped teams like, say, us.

    The lack of depth in the D has generated surprisingly little comment, particularly with the uncertainty over Sekera. I guess with concerns over GM, coaching, Bakersfield, scoring wingers, goal tending, RHDs, red wine summits, Lucic, etc. there is probably not sufficient bandwidth.

  16. Dustylegnd says:

    Cassandra,

    The market bears what it does, $12.5 for McDavid is fair value for the player, and the organization, the other 30 teams in the league would have gladly paid him $12.5 if he was available for no cost other than the contract.

    Paying McDavid $12.5 is not a problem until you find your self paying Lucic $6/year in a league that now requires speed and puck handling on all lines.

    Paying Draisaitl $8.5/year adds to the issue here, Pistol Petes successor in Boston locked Marchand up for 6.1/year and then Pastrnak at $6.6/year Pete exposed himself for the absolutely shit negotiator he is…there is no excuse for the Draisaitl deal

    Chiarelli signed McDavid and Draisaitl in the wrong order…….just amateur hour

    I have repeatedly posed the this question: What is the marginal value of a true Super Star vs the next level of really good player? No body ever answers this question…..is McDavid essentially worth double Johnny Hockey? but I digress

    If the Oil do not sign Lucic and they get Drai at $7mill they are in fine fine shape…and I do believe McDavids % of cap cost was inline with % of cap when Pittsburg locked up Syd….then the Penguins quit winning because they had a shit supporting cast……the Oil have no supporting cast…the line up is basically binary, the Oil have very good to Incredible players and near/below replacement players….wrong formula

  17. who says:

    Just listened to your interview with Scott Cullen. What is he smoking? JP for Faulk? Klefbom for Burkasky?
    How many people would trade Klefbom for Faulk right now? And how many would trade JP for Burkasky?
    I guess this just proves there is at least one guy who would be a worse GM for the Oilers than Chia.!

  18. Jaxon says:

    The more I think about it the more I like the idea of trading 10th and Kassian to Florida for Mascherin and #15 and draft Markley with #15. Or Keep Kassian and send #10 and #40 to Florida for Mascherin and #15.

    LW / C / RW
    Nugent-Hopkins / McDavid / Rattie
    Mascherin / Draisaitl / Puljujarvi
    Lucic / Strome / Yamamoto (Caggiula?)
    Aberg / Khaira / Kassian (Aberg?)

    Nest prospects with most potential:
    Benson / Marody / Yamamoto

    LD / RD
    Klefbom / Larsson
    Nurse / Benning
    Sekera / Russell (Bear, trade or buyout Russell?)

    Next Prospects with most potential:
    Jones / Merkley

    Talbot
    Koskinen

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Digging into Krug part 1

    Getting a baseline for how BOS does without Chara on the ice is important to examining Krug as he doesn’t get to play with Chara and it might be unfair to him to do straight On/Off examination.

    So here is BOS’ GF% and CF% last 3 years without Chara on the ice along with Krug’s on ice results

    17/18
    No Chara
    CF 54.2%
    GF 55.8%

    Krug
    CF 54.4%
    GF 52.2%

    So this past year, Krug is 3.6% below No Chara BOS GF%, but CF% is identical

    16/17
    No Chara
    CF 56.1%
    GF 47.9%

    Krug
    CF 57.4%
    GF 47.3%

    In 16/17 Krug is very close to the baseline “Chara Off”

    15/16
    No Chara
    CF 49.6%
    GF 50.8%

    Krug
    CF 51.2%
    GF 56.6%

    In 15/16 Krug exceeds “Chara Off” by 1.6%CF and pretty large 5.8% GF

    I think its fair to say that, using these metrics only, his contribution to the team has been sliding relative to his other non-Chara On Ice team mates.

    Its not bad, but its not better than “the group” and that group includes Kevin Miller & McQuaid

    For more context here are Krug’s most common partners for those 3 years:

    17/18
    Carlo 655 min
    McQuaid 204 min
    K.Miller 156 min

    16/17
    McQuaid 891 min
    C.Miller 154 min
    Carlo 128 min

    15/16
    McQuaid 552 min
    K.Miller 405 min
    Seidenberg 164 min

    Also,

    It should be noted that he was split between 2nd & 3rd pair in the playoffs this year.

    It looks like Julien didn’t want to play McQuaid much and ran more of a 1st/2nd/3rd pair in the playoffs opposed to his Hard 1st/3rd/3rd regular season

    Krug spend 50% of this time with McQuaid and 50% with K.Miller

    Here is BOS’ Dmen TOI/gm this playoff:
    Player TOI/GP
    Charlie McAvoy 21.4
    Zdeno Chara 19.3
    Kevan Miller 18.0
    Torey Krug 15.7
    Matt Grzelcyk 14.7
    Adam McQuaid 10.2

    Its interesting that Miller’s GF% results are much worse with Krug than with Grzelcyk or Chara (natch) and maybe that’s why Krug got moved down?

    Miller-Krug (5-10 = 33%) in 91 minutes
    Miller-Grzelcyk (2-1 = 67%) in 74 minutes
    Miller – Chara (3-0 = 100%) in 28 minutes

    So far the impression on Krug from these sets of results from the last 3 years, taking into account that he plays 3rd pair is ……meh

    I’ll dig down on Relative Team mate next

  20. rickithebear says:

    Everyone is talking about VGK quick goal response.
    They do not give up Goals against.
    So they have to do it once in a game.

    Oilers GA rates they have to do it 2 or 3 times a game.

    Cup core roster is based on strong GA defence.

    Klefbom is a defensive liability.

    You want strong even off dmen that do not yield HD protection.

    But Klefbom and 10? NFW

    Every dman that has played with chara and left, does not maintain top end HD performance

    Ference, Boychuk, Hamilton
    Krug?

  21. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Is Tom Kuhnhackl and RNH that different of VALUE?

    Khunhackl has 7 playoff points and 2 STANLEY CUP RINGS
    RNH has 4 playoff points an NO RINGS

    Now that is crazy talk, RNH has consistently provided scoring for the Oilers ?

    Nhl.com points leaders

    2017 125th table of merit
    2016 144th
    2015 433rd
    2014 174th
    2013 241st
    2013 1374th
    2011 422nd

    Just having fun, I accept your point.

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    Serious question: why, in your opinion, does Vanek get $4M?

  23. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Serious question: why, in your opinion, does Vanek get $4M?

    He had a strong year, small free-agent pool for skill forwards.

  24. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Connor and Leon aren’t the problem, or their pay. Nuge Klefbom and Larsson are fine. The discussion starts after that IMO.

    Funny how in general people over react to short term trends. There hasn’t been much said about the Jets these last few days. I guess Chevy is a mere mortal again.

    Thanks digging those numbers up WG, Krug looks like a disaster waiting to happen. No wonder they want to sell high. The last thing the Oilers need is more chaos defending.

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear:
    Everyone is talking about VGK quick goal response.
    They do not give up Goals against.
    So they have to do it once in a game.

    Oilers GA rates they have to do it 2 or 3 times a game.

    Cup core roster is based on strong GA defence.

    Klefbom is a defensive liability.

    You want strong even off dmen that do not yield HD protection.

    But Klefbom and 10? NFW

    Every dman that has played with chara and left, does not maintain top end HD performance

    Ference, Boychuk, Hamilton
    Krug?

    Krug doesn’t play with Chara.

    Never has much either.

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: Now that is crazy talk, RNH has consistently provided scoring for the Oilers

    Nhl.com points leaders

    2017 125th table of merit
    2016 144th
    2015 433rd
    2014 174th
    2013 241st
    2013 1374th
    2011 422nd

    Just having fun, I accept your point.

    I’m glad you took my post in the spirit that it was intended. 🙂

  27. Gordies Elbow says:

    For the salary cap, Jesse wouldn’t have earned any Individual “A” bonuses last season, and I’m not sure that they need to reserve any cap for them. The maximum amount payable for any single category of Individual “A” Bonuses identified is $212,500 per season, split between the following categories, with the following minimums (CBA page 326.)

    For Forwards:
    (i) Ice time (aggregate and/or per Game). Player must be among top six (6) forwards on the Club: Jesse was 9th in minutes played, 8th in ATOI.
    (ii) Goals: 20 Goal Minimum: Jesse scored 12.
    (iii) Assists: 35 Assist Minimum: Scored 8.
    (iv) Points: 60 Point Minimum: Scored 20.
    (v) Points Per Game: .73 Points Per Game Minimum: Scored .307
    (vi) Plus-Minus Rating: Among top three (3) forwards on the Club:
    4th (would have been 5th if Pakarinen had played 2 more games.)
    (vii) End-of-Season NHL All-Rookie Team: Nope.
    (viii) NHL All-Star Game (selected to play or plays): Nope.
    (ix) NHL All-Star Game MVP: Nope.

    You can have a bonus for $100k for 20 goals, another $25k for 25, etc. so long as the maximum in each category listed above is $212,500.

    If I was Jesse’s agent, looking at the winger depth, I would have pushed hard for the ice time, plus/minus, goals, and assists. Does Jesse hit the minimums for any of those categories this season?

    If you were Jesse’s agent, which ones would you have picked and why?

  28. Wilde says:

    Cassandra,

    Okay so, no one gets paid like McDavid.

    But McDavid puts the next tier(7-10.5AAV) in the dumpster, consistently even without exceptional linemates even if there’s multiple ‘next tier’ players defending him.

    He is the only player that does this.

    So for ~3-5 extra million you get:

    – The only singular asset in the league that can beat any matchup in the league

    – The only asset in the league that can do this without a 7M+ player on his line

    So, for a 12.5M + 6M + 3M payment against the cap, you can beat a line like Boston’s ~20.5M dollar line or Colorado’s ~19M(Rantanen will get 7+) line.

    With say Larsson and Klefbom’s 8M against another team’s 10+M top pairing

    How is that /not/ worth every penny?

    rickithebear,

    I’ve seen you multiple times reference that Vegas uses a high danger centric DZ structure, but whenever I read about them it’s always described as a man-to-man system, much like the Oilers used this season, how do you reconcile this?

    Woodguy v2.0,

    For some reason, I have it in my head that when another team’s coach tries to hide their top line from Bergeron, Julien used to put Krug on with Bergeron+Marchand and go for the throat against a team’s checking line.

    I’ll check.

    who:
    Just listened to your interview with Scott Cullen. What is he smoking? JP for Faulk? Klefbom for Burkasky?
    How many people would trade Klefbom for Faulk right now? And how many would trade JP for Burkasky?
    I guess this just proves there is at least one guy who would be a worse GM for the Oilers than Chia.!

    Pretty sure he’s operating off of Chiarelli’s own past, and says so in his referenced article, but that’s off memory.

    Cassandra:
    Nice article at the Athletic on what the Leafs should do to acquire a center, mentioning Czarnik (and Nick Petan).The Oilers should steal from this idea, both look like good players who haven’t been given an opportunity.

    I also like the idea of taking on a bad contract from another team in exchange for a young, cost controlled, player (the Teravainen type trade).Unfortunately, because they have so many bloated contracts, the Oilers are the target of that kind of trade, not the beneficiary.

    Realistically, the Oilers have no good options other than the Czarnik and Petan route.

    In the vein of bad money deals, I’ve said this before, I like Jon Willis’s plan of swapping Russell for an equivalently overpaid forward to rebalance the roster a litte.

    And on the subject of bottom-of-the-lineup banditry, this is cruel and predatory, but I’d try stealing Rodrigues from Buffalo.

  29. leadfarmer says:

    Does that roster make it until the end of january before playoffs are out of reach? How about Christmas?

  30. leadfarmer says:

    Wilde,

    Ricki hasnt quite figured out that his HD theory has been debunked years ago

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Digging into Krug part 2 – Relative Team Mate Goals

    Relative Team Mate goal metrics over multiple seasons have been a hobby horse of mine lately.

    I think there is value in relative team mate goal metrics in evaluation Dmen over multiple seasons as the shot metrics miss some nuance of defending (rickibox HD FTW!) and goal scoring that goals pick up.

    The problem with goals is their volatility which is why multi-season samples are best to spot trends that actually mean something and are not noise.

    I like Relative Team mate more than straight Relative because RelT is a total of the WOWY so you see how a player (and his Dpartner) effect his team mates and its not a straight on/off which have different meanings on teams that are strong/weak etc.

    To that end here’s Krug’s last 3 years:

    Relative Team Mate Goals Against/60
    Player Season RelT GA/60
    TOREY.KRUG 15/16 -0.49
    TOREY.KRUG 16/17 -0.11
    TOREY.KRUG 17/18 +0.15

    Remember negatives are good here.

    Very nice results 3 years ago.

    Moving the wrong way over the last 2 years, but not terrible.

    Relative Team mate Goals For/60
    Player Season RelT GF/60
    TOREY.KRUG 15/16 0.08
    TOREY.KRUG 16/17 -0.29
    TOREY.KRUG 17/18 -0.09

    Not exactly what you want to see from an “offensive defenseman”.

    You want to see a Dman adding value here and I don’t see any.

    Krug isn’t a vampire Dman nearly to the extent that Faulk is (points but less goals for everyone), but its not what you expect to see.

    A Dmen who gets a big QoC push should see a good number here as its easier to score against his comp than whoever Chara is playing.

    Overall Relative team mate GF%

    Player Season RelT GF%
    TOREY.KRUG 15/16 6.87
    TOREY.KRUG 16/17 -0.80
    TOREY.KRUG 17/18 -1.65

    Bleh.

    Three years ago against pops up but I’d expect this to be much better with his reputation and QoC.

    So far I don’t see a Dman who is ready to move up QoC-wise and take on tougher minutes.

    It would be a pretty steep drop from Klefbom to Krug.

    Maybe if Sekera is healthy then they run Nurse-Sekera-Krug as the LH Dmen, but I don’t like it.

    No sir, don’t like it at all.

  32. --hudson-- says:

    who:
    Just listened to your interview with Scott Cullen. What is he smoking? JP for Faulk? Klefbom for Burkasky?
    How many people would trade Klefbom for Faulk right now? And how many would trade JP for Burkasky?
    I guess this just proves there is at least one guy who would be a worse GM for the Oilers than Chia.!

    That’s disappointing to hear from Cullen. With his analytical approach you would expect him to know the difference between intrinsic value and reputation. It sounds like those proposals are all based on reputation.

  33. rickithebear says:

    Dusty legend.

    Look at the standard young fwd out of ELC base contract.
    5 yr @ 5.75M
    .375 per extra year
    .375 per extra .08 PPG above base age Ppg.
    Draisaitl 5.75 + (3 x .75) = 8.25M age 21-28

    Then look at annum vs cap yr signing.

  34. Wilde says:

    Anyone who watched G1 of the Memorial Cup Finals want to give us a recap of Hebig’s game?

  35. Woogie63 says:

    CPG companies are being approached by the NHL about a very unique branding opportunity, the brief lead me believe the brand would be placed on the hockey pants of every NHL player, and an option for the offical’s uniform.

  36. Lowetide says:

    –hudson–: That’s disappointing to hear from Cullen.With his analytical approach you would expect him to know the difference between intrinsic value and reputation.It sounds like those proposals are all based on reputation.

    I think he correctly identified that Peter Chiarelli wants a power-play option on defense. He chose Faulk, but the payment by Edmonton is in line with the team’s recent trades.

  37. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    Wilde,

    Ricki hasnt quite figured out that his HD theory has been debunked years ago

    Debunked!

    How!

    It is based on shot data.

    It identifies mechanism of defence.

    Outliers are the critical.

    That would be the 9 Top 60 HD dmen VGK selected.

    To put 12 years into all my research.

    Start the process of trying to insure my families security in case.
    By presenting a record of all my work.

    Your a dick!

    Although so am I.

  38. John Chambers says:

    Perhaps the Oilers should be leveraging Klefbom to obtain more of a value contract on an ELC as opposed to a higher salary player.

    Wouldn’t Klef for Carlo make a lot more sense for us? Save $3M, solidify the right side, and have a core of defensive defensemen to play defense.

    From there you have the cash to sign Evander Kane 🙂

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Not a big fan of TSN’s Mike Kelly.

    He was the TSNStats account when it made the awesome “I think COL does the things correctly that result in a 1065 PDO”

    That said, he’s gotten better and has access to some puck movement data (sportslogiq?)

    Here is something he just wrote and posted on twitter:

    Jets have created a ton of zone time in the last 2 games but there’s a lot of empty calories there.

    Offensive zone possession is 15:30 for Winnipeg in the last 2 games.

    They’ve lived in Vegas’ end.

    Ye, Vegas is +2 in scoring chances and +5 in shots on net from the slot. More importantly, they are +3 in goals and won both games.

    The Golden Knights have also created 22 scoring chances off the rush in the lat 2 game to Winnipeg’s 13.

    This is nothing new in how the Golden Knights have found success all year.

    They’re a counter-punch team that creates rush chances with offence from defence.

    They track and fore-check as well as anyone.

    In the regular season, Vegas ranked 15th in the amount of offensive zone possession they allowed. Nothing special there.

    However, they were top 10 in limiting scoring chances and allowing shots on net from the slot.

    In the playoffs, they are 11th out of 16 teams in allowing offensive zone possession per game, yet rank top 3 in limited scoring chances and shot on net from the slot. They also rank 3nd in limiting passes into the slot area.

    Vega defends in-zone incredibly well and doesn’t get nearly enough credit for their execution in this facet of the game.

    Of course, MAF has been brilliant and is clearly outplaying his counterpart in goal but the Jets likely believe they have been the better team because of the disparity in zone time.

    Zone time does not equal success – at the end of the day its about creating the best opportunities to score goals and in the last 2 games Vegas has been the better team in this area.

    The Jets can talk about being the better team all they want but they clearly don’t realize Vegas is simply doing what they’ve done to team all year and surprise, surprise – they’re winning.

    When the dust settles, one team will be moving on an if the Jets believe staying teh course is the best approach, it likely won’t be them.

    He references a lot of data that isn’t public.

    I wonder who he’s plugged into?

    I wonder how good their data is.

    I though Mr. TheBear would enjoy this.

    Link: https://twitter.com/MikeKellyNHL/status/997872130120302592

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Cassandra: We already rejected this idea in the last post.

    Not really: some provided their opinion that its not the case, whereas others have a different opinion. With respect, it seems arrogant to say “we rejected it” – that essentially means “my opinion is greater than yours”.

    While a minority opinion, some have the opinion that the deal is not a value contract or at least wasn’t at the time it was signed. Others can disagree with that opinion but I don’t believe it can honestly be stated that “its rejected”.

    Some, like myself, can be 100% fine with the McDavid contract – its not an issue or a problem. At the same time, I can have the opinion that, yes, while he could have demanded “the max” that would be unreasonable and, at the time of signing, the contract had a cap hit (and still does) of $2M higher than the next highest. While I have no problem with the contract and am happy its done and for the max term, it is not a value contract, in my opinion – not with reference to other cap hits in the league.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Haven’t read the full comments yet but, after their 6-0 victory over the US, Adam Larsson was named one of the three top players for Sweden in the tournament (along with OEL and Backland).

    Go Canada!

  42. John Chambers says:

    @ Woodguy

    To some extent, Vegas’ rope-a-dope strategy is similar to how Kruger managed the lineup during his year. The Oilers would play a goal prevention strategy (as best they could) and count on counterpunch offence from their smaller forward who were incapable of maintaining an O-zone cycle.

    You have to have very sharp goalering and a whole bunch of forwards capable of cashing to pull it off.

    Seemed to suit a lineup that featured Sam Gagner, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s what Natural Stat Trick has for scoring chance and high danger scoring chance data (based on shot location only)

    CF%
    WPG 54.7
    VGK 45.3

    GF%
    WPG 35.7
    VGK 64.3

    SCF%
    WPG 52.3%
    VGK 47.7%

    SC SV%
    WPG .916
    VGK .967

    HDCF%
    WPG 63.4%
    VGK 36.6%

    HD SV%
    WPG .767
    VGK .942

    I don’t know where Kelly gets his data, but it doesn’t jibe with NST.

    That said, NST only uses shot location and I infer that Kelly uses pre-shot puck movement and more when determining “scoring chances”

    Such a huge disparity though.

    I’d LOVE to see what data Kelly is looking at.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Watching the first minute of this game and it could be a struggle – Swiss back absolutely everyone up in to the neutral zone and push the play to the outside when Canada gets possession. The damn big ice and the ultimate equalizer if a there is a buy-in to the defensive system.

    Hopefully Canada’s talent will be able to break though and Darcey K. doesn’t let in 3 terrible goals.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers:
    @ Woodguy

    To some extent, Vegas’ rope-a-dope strategy is similar to how Kruger managed the lineup during his year. The Oilers would play a goal prevention strategy (as best they could) and count on counterpunch offence from their smaller forward who were incapable of maintaining an O-zone cycle.

    You have to have very sharp goalering and a whole bunch of forwards capable of cashing to pull it off.

    Seemed to suit a lineup that featured Sam Gagner, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz.

    Coaches like Carlyle (TOR) and Hartley (COL & CGY) did it too.

    I’m not sure it really works unless you have good skating forwards and good Rickibox defenders.

    Its interesting to see it work (if that is what is going on) as its usually a tactic employed by weaker teams.

    Worked for EDM vs DET in 2016…..

    Just need George Vezina in net.

    Lucking EDM had him until MAB….

    Seems like VGK has him this year.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    It is really really interesting to me that so many criticize Chiarelli for signing Drai and McDavid in the wrong order, however, in the weeks/months leading up to free agency in that year, to a man, it was agreed that, 100%, McDavid needed to be signed before anybody else including Leon Draisaitl.

    While I’m sure there was the odd person that disagreed with that, I literally don’t think I read a single post or had a single conversation about the Oilers prior to McDavid signing that suggested it was wrong to sign him first.

    Now, after the fact, Chairelli is an idiot for doing exactly what 99.343% of the fanbase, media, blogging community, etc. wanted him to do.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    who:
    Just listened to your interview with Scott Cullen. What is he smoking? JP for Faulk? Klefbom for Burkasky?
    How many people would trade Klefbom for Faulk right now? And how many would trade JP for Burkasky?
    I guess this just proves there is at least one guy who would be a worse GM for the Oilers than Chia.!

    It wasn’t even JP for Faulk, it was JP plus for Faulk.

  48. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not really: some provided their opinion that its not the case, whereas others have a different opinion. With respect, it seems arrogant to say “we rejected it” – that essentially means “my opinion is greater than yours”.

    While a minority opinion, some have the opinion that the deal is not a value contract or at least wasn’t at the time it was signed. Others can disagree with that opinion but I don’t believe it can honestly be stated that “its rejected”.

    Some, like myself, can be 100% fine with the McDavid contract – its not an issue or a problem.At the same time, I can have the opinion that, yes, while he could have demanded “the max” that would be unreasonable and, at the time of signing, the contract had a cap hit (and still does) of $2M higher than the next highest. While I have no problem with the contract and am happy its done and for the max term, it is not a value contract, in my opinion – not with reference to other cap hits in the league.

    You’re right. I rejected it. If you want to argue the McDavid contract not being a terrific deal for Edmonton, you may proceed. 🙂

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Anyone who watched G1 of the Memorial Cup Finals want to give us a recap of Hebig’s game?

    I watched parts, bits and pieces. He was dangerous but Sam Steel drives the line.

    He was material on the game winning goal with a battle and screen in front of the net.

    I am looking for a strong year from him in Bakersfield next season.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: You’re right. I rejected it. If you want to argue the McDavid contract not being a terrific deal for Edmonton, you may proceed.

    I never said it wasn’t a fine deal for the Oilers, I’ve stated my opinion that its not a value deal at this point with reference to the other cap hits in the league.

    There are a number of players that had P/G very close to Connor’s with a cap hit around half – those were value contracts for their production.

    Again, I have zero issues with McDavid’s contract, its not a problem, its not an issue, its simply not a value contract at this point – it is very likely to become one during its term.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    SWI takes a 1-0 lead late in the first – full value for the 1-0 lead – they’ve been the better team for large parts of the 1st period.

    Nice shot but, once again, not great tending for Canada.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Swiss doing a great job defending the HD areas.

    Damn you big ice, damn you.

  53. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: I never said it wasn’t a fine deal for the Oilers, I’ve stated my opinion that its not a value deal at this point with reference to the other cap hits in the league.

    There are a number of players that had P/G very close to Connor’s with a cap hit around half – those were value contracts for their production.

    Again, I have zero issues with McDavid’s contract, its not a problem, its not an issue, its simply not a value contract at this point – it is very likely to become one during its term.

    You’re overlooking where he was drafted and buying into an argument that is beneath the conversation. 97 is this generation’s Sidney Crosby. He signed a deal that, as a percentage of cap, was more friendly to the Oilers AND FOR LONGER TERM.

    I shouldn’t be having to make these arguments, OP. You’re the lawyer, I need you to bring the good arguments. 🙂

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: He had a strong year, small free-agent pool for skill forwards.

    Yeah, but a similar year to 16-17, after which he signed a 1-year, $ 2M contract. He’s a year older now, I don’t expect him to get double that.

  55. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide: You’re right. I rejected it. If you want to argue the McDavid contract not being a terrific deal for Edmonton, you may proceed.

    Pretty much all RFA contracts are terrific deals for their teams compared to the UFA alternatives. That is the nature of an RFA deal. That is the wrong question.

    The right question is whether it is a value contract in comparison to other RFA deals. This is a legitimate question that doesn’t going away by being ignored.

    It is by a landslide the largest RFA contract in the league. So the analytical question is how much better than everyone else does McDAvid have to be for it to be a value contract in comparison to other RFA contracts?

    That question has not been answered, let alone settled. And the character attacks you’ve made, suggesting the question is motivated by jealousy or envy are uncalled for.

  56. jp says:

    Jaxon:
    The more I think about it the more I like the idea of trading 10th and Kassian to Florida for Mascherin and #15 and draft Markley with #15. Or Keep Kassian and send #10 and #40 to Florida for Mascherin and #15.

    LW / C / RW
    Nugent-Hopkins / McDavid / Rattie
    Mascherin / Draisaitl / Puljujarvi
    Lucic / Strome / Yamamoto (Caggiula?)
    Aberg / Khaira / Kassian (Aberg?)

    Nest prospects with most potential:
    Benson / Marody / Yamamoto

    LD / RD
    Klefbom / Larsson
    Nurse / Benning
    Sekera / Russell (Bear, trade or buyout Russell?)

    Next Prospects with most potential:
    Jones / Merkley

    Talbot
    Koskinen

    Do you really think he’s worth that? Would you pick him in the 20s if he went back into the draft? I’d be hesitant to give up more than a 2nd, and I think moving from 15 to 10 is worth about that. I really don’t see why one would need to add Kassian (assuming he has positive value) or the 40 to the first round exchange to get Mascherin. The 2nd alone would seem to be pretty fair value imo.

  57. dustrock says:

    Nurse poor defending again just saying move.him.not Klefbom.

    Nurse probably only Oiler who increased his value on D last season

  58. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: Pretty much all RFA contracts are terrific deals for their teams compared to the UFA alternatives.That is the nature of an RFA deal.That is the wrong question.

    The right question is whether it is a value contract in comparison to other RFA deals.This is a legitimate question that doesn’t going away by being ignored.

    It is by a landslide the largest RFA contract in the league.So the analytical question is how much better than everyone else does McDAvid have to be for it to be a value contract in comparison to other RFA contracts?

    That question has not been answered, let alone settled.And the character attacks you’ve made, suggesting the question is motivated by jealousy or envy are uncalled for.

    This is classic misdirection. Connor McDavid couldn’t sign a seven year, $6 million contract BECAUSE HE’S CONNOR MCDAVID. You are buying the best player in the game for the best years of his life. I’m surprised anyone is buying this argument, Cassandra. Hats off to you, this board has reached a point where they’ll debate anything in the hopes it makes the Oilers look like dummies. And there’s really no need to, there’s evidence almost everywhere.

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Digging into Krug part 2 – Relative Team Mate Goals

    Relative Team Mate goal metrics over multiple seasons have been a hobby horse of mine lately.

    I think there is value in relative team mate goal metrics in evaluation Dmen over multiple seasons as the shot metrics miss some nuance of defending (rickibox HD FTW!) and goal scoring that goals pick up.

    The problem with goals is their volatility which is why multi-season samples are best to spot trends that actually mean something and are not noise.

    I like Relative Team mate more than straight Relative because RelT is a total of the WOWY so you see how a player (and his Dpartner) effect his team mates and its not a straight on/off which have different meanings on teams that are strong/weak etc.

    To that end here’s Krug’s last 3 years:

    Relative Team Mate Goals Against/60
    PlayerSeasonRelT GA/60
    TOREY.KRUG15/16-0.49
    TOREY.KRUG16/17-0.11
    TOREY.KRUG17/18+0.15

    Remember negatives are good here.

    Very nice results 3 years ago.

    Moving the wrong way over the last 2 years, but not terrible.

    Relative Team mate Goals For/60
    PlayerSeasonRelT GF/60
    TOREY.KRUG15/160.08
    TOREY.KRUG16/17-0.29
    TOREY.KRUG17/18-0.09

    Not exactly what you want to see from an “offensive defenseman”.

    You want to see a Dman adding value here and I don’t see any.

    Krug isn’t a vampire Dman nearly to the extent that Faulk is (points but less goals for everyone), but its not what you expect to see.

    A Dmen who gets a big QoC push should see a good number here as its easier to score against his comp than whoever Chara is playing.

    Overall Relative team mate GF%

    PlayerSeasonRelT GF%
    TOREY.KRUG15/166.87
    TOREY.KRUG16/17-0.80
    TOREY.KRUG17/18-1.65

    Bleh.

    Three years ago against pops up but I’d expect this to be much better with his reputation and QoC.

    So far I don’t see a Dman who is ready to move up QoC-wise and take on tougher minutes.

    It would be a pretty steep drop from Klefbom to Krug.

    Maybe if Sekera is healthy then they run Nurse-Sekera-Krug as the LH Dmen, but I don’t like it.

    No sir, don’t like it at all.

    It’s interesting that every Bruins mock for 18-19 has them acquiring a 2LD (Klefbom and Hanifin are the two most common targets) and not much else. They all have Chara on the first pairing and Krug on the third… it’s obvious even to Bruins fans that Krug isn’t going to succeed at 2LD.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Nurse poor defending again just saying move.him.not Klefbom.

    Nurse probably only Oiler who increased his value on D last season

    On the Swiss goal? He man have backed in a bit too much but that goal was on the tender.

  61. Dustylegnd says:

    Lowetide,

    I think what may influence certain opinions about the value of McDavids contract are contracts like Marchand’s, now that is value (6.1 x 6 years) for the absolute prime of his career with a pp/g total very close to McDavids…..you then mix in the Pasternak deal and you ask yourself are you further ahead with $21 mill between McDavid and Drai or 12.7 between Marchand and Pastrnak,,,,

    I know this is what drives me mad about Chia….he screwed Boston on the Cap…..drew the Ire of Jacobs and Neely, lands immediately on his feet and proceeds to exhibit the exact same behaviour with the Oilers Cap situation

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    I expect this game to be tied heading in to the third when I get to the dealership for the summer tires to be put on.

    Don’t forget, everyone, WHL (Skinner) vs. QMJHL (Dobson) at 2pm – sadly, I’ll only be able to watch half live before I have to head to the airport to pick up the wife after her long journey home from South America.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whoa, Horvat ties it up.

    Very similar goal to the one the SWI scored and, yes, the goalie should have had it.

    My expectation in my previous post is for a Canadian lead.

  64. Lowetide says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Lowetide,

    I think what may influence certain opinions about the value of McDavids contract are contracts like Marchand’s, now that is value (6.1 x 6 years) for the absolute prime of his career with a pp/g total very close to McDavids…..you then mix in the Pasternak deal and you ask yourself are you further ahead with$21 mill between McDavid and Drai or 12.7 between Marchand and Pastrnak,,,,

    I know this is what drives me mad about Chia….he screwed Boston on the Cap…..drew the Ire of Jacobs and Neely, lands immediately on his feet and proceeds to exhibit the exact same behaviour with the Oilers Cap situation

    Brad Marchand was drafted No. 71 overall and had a less than God-like entry-level career. May I ask how this makes him a comparable for Connor McDavid?

  65. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s what Natural Stat Trick has for scoring chance and high danger scoring chance data (based on shot location only)

    CF%
    WPG 54.7
    VGK 45.3

    GF%
    WPG 35.7
    VGK 64.3

    SCF%
    WPG 52.3%
    VGK 47.7%

    SC SV%
    WPG .916
    VGK .967

    HDCF%
    WPG 63.4%
    VGK 36.6%

    HD SV%
    WPG .767
    VGK .942

    I don’t know where Kelly gets his data, but it doesn’t jibe with NST.

    That said, NST only uses shot location and I infer that Kelly uses pre-shot puck movement and more when determining “scoring chances”

    Such a huge disparity though.

    I’d LOVE to see what data Kelly is looking at.

    I’d bet it’s Sportlogig.

    I have had the chance to see some players stats from Sportlogig and it’s miles ahead of any public database.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Lowetide,

    I think what may influence certain opinions about the value of McDavids contract are contracts like Marchand’s, now that is value (6.1 x 6 years) for the absolute prime of his career with a pp/g total very close to McDavids…..you then mix in the Pasternak deal and you ask yourself are you further ahead with$21 mill between McDavid and Drai or 12.7 between Marchand and Pastrnak,,,,

    I know this is what drives me mad about Chia….he screwed Boston on the Cap…..drew the Ire of Jacobs and Neely, lands immediately on his feet and proceeds to exhibit the exact same behaviour with the Oilers Cap situation

    The McDavid deal is just fine but its double the cap hit (essentially) of the Bruins you just mentioned, as well as guys like Taylor Hall, Nathan McKinnon, etc. who provide similar production, or at least did this past season.

    Again, the contract is just fine – no issues with it – there are elite players in the game that, this past season, that I would consider have value contracts to a higher degree than McDavid – at this point in time.

  67. Dustylegnd says:

    Lowetide: This is classic misdirection. ConnorMcDavid couldn’t sign a seven year, $6 million contract BECAUSE HE’S CONNOR MCDAVID. You are buying the best player in the game for the best years of his life. I’m surprised anyone is buying this argument, Cassandra. Hats off to you, this board has reached a point where they’ll debate anything in the hopes it makes the Oilers look like dummies. And there’s really no need to, there’s evidence almost everywhere.

    There is a reason people pay the money they pay for Ferraris when a Corvette can do “most” of the things the Ferrari can do……for a lot less money

    “Price is what you pay,Value is what you get”

  68. John Chambers says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Every team hates their version of Justin Schultz

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Swiss re-take the lead on a dominant PP.

  70. Dustylegnd says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Yes it is just fine, the Lucic, Russel, and Draisaitl deals can not all co-exist with the McDavid deal when we have no #1 D man and poor depth

  71. Dustylegnd says:

    Lowetide,

    If you score at a rate that is top 5 in the league, and you do it more than once, and you agitate at a world class level and you can back up all the shit you talk with your fists, you deserve a lot more than $6.1 per season. What does it matter if you were drafted 71st overall? Shea Webber and PK Suban both went in the 2nd round and are both at the top of the D men pay scale

    I am not suggesting McDavid should have signed for any less than $12.5/season as a matter of fact I think he was charitable signing for $1 less than max (esp knowing what he now knows about the roster he has behind him)

    I guess my point is that Marchand and his agent both underestimated his value and his worth….the day he signed that contract my mind was boggled…esp after his world cup performance…..he needs Draisaitls agent which I believe is Mike Liut

  72. Rake 2.0 says:

    frjohnk: I’d bet it’s Sportlogig.

    I have had the chance to see some players stats from Sportlogig and it’s miles ahead of any public database.

    From what you saw of their data, do you think it’s trustworthy? My only knowledge of their data was that they had Russel as one of the leaders in zone exits.

  73. Lowetide says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Lowetide,

    I guess my point is that Marchand and his agent both underestimated his value and his worth….the day he signed that contract my mind was boggled…esp afters world cup performance…..he needs Draisaitls agent which I believe is Mike Liut

    I guess my point is that the Oilers had the No. 1 pick, a generational talent, who won two scoring championships in his entry level deal and a Hart Trophy, and wanted him to sign for eight years. In what world should anyone have expected $6.1 million times x years?

    With respect, I think many people are buying into Cassandra’s quicksand. Damn shame.

  74. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide: This is classic misdirection. ConnorMcDavid couldn’t sign a seven year, $6 million contract BECAUSE HE’S CONNOR MCDAVID. You are buying the best player in the game for the best years of his life. I’m surprised anyone is buying this argument, Cassandra. Hats off to you, this board has reached a point where they’ll debate anything in the hopes it makes the Oilers look like dummies. And there’s really no need to, there’s evidence almost everywhere.

    I don’t think the Oilers are dummies for the McDavid contract. It is better than the Draisatl contract, for instance.

    However, if McDavid is actually so good that 12.5 M is great value then McDavid on an ELC is the greatest contract in history.

    The Oilers aren’t dummies for the McDavid contract. They are dummies for not winning with McDavid.

  75. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear: Debunked!

    How!

    It is based on shot data.

    It identifies mechanism of defence.

    Outliers are the critical.

    That would be the 9 Top 60 HD dmen VGK selected.

    To put 12 years into all my research.

    Start the process of trying to insure my families security in case.
    By presenting a record of all my work.

    Your a dick!

    Although so am I.

    Sure Vegas drafted a lot of HD defensemen cause a lot of them were 3rd pairing and lower defensemen so they were available. And what did Vegas do to those defensemen? Made them chase forwards outside the HD area something you have been critical of Oil doing the exact same thing.
    Other teams left are definitely not Ricki teams. Jets and Tampa are about as far away as Ricki defensively as teams get except for the winner of the last two Stanley cups.

  76. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    I think you are going to have sticker shock at some of these contracts that are going to be signed this offseason and next

  77. Rake 2.0 says:

    Lowetide,

    The only contract that we will be really able to compare to McDavids will be Matthews next contract. It will be closer than a lot of people think.

  78. Dustylegnd says:

    Lowetide,

    With respect, either I am not communicating well or you are not listening, I agree that $12.5/year is good value for both the team and the player…..the Oilers did well to get McDavid for any less than $15/year

    You pay 400K for Ferraris because they are Ferraris, you pay 120K for corvettes because they are Corvettes…I clearly understand McDavid is a Ferrari..and have no issue with the “value” of said contract

    The Oilers are beyond lucky to have McDavid at the price they have him at

  79. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide: I guess my point is that the Oilers had the No. 1 pick, a generational talent, who won two scoring championships in his entry level deal and a Hart Trophy, and wanted him to sign for eight years. In what world should anyone have expected $6.1 million times x years?

    With respect, I think many people are buying into Cassandra’s quicksand. Damn shame.

    No one thinks McDavid was going to sign for 6.1 M. The point that you and Woodguy and whomever else seem to be making is that McDavid is value at any price. I guess that is true. However, what matters is not whether or not it is value, but how much value. Every extra dollar makes it less valuable.

    And so long as McDavid is playing against guys like Marchand the comparison is reasonable. They play on the same ice by the same rules. McDavid + Khaira has to be able to be able to beat Marchand + Pastrnak. Is McDavid that good? If he isn’t, the Oilers have a problem.

  80. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: if McDavid is actually so good that 12.5 M is great value then McDavid on an ELC is the greatest contract in history.

    Zero doubt in my mind this statement is true. None.

  81. Alpine says:

    OriginalPouzar: The McDavid deal is just fine but its double the cap hit (essentially) of the Bruins you just mentioned, as well as guys like Taylor Hall, Nathan McKinnon, etc. who provide similar production, or at least did this past season.

    Again, the contract is just fine – no issues with it – there are elite players in the game that, this past season, that I would consider have value contracts to a higher degree than McDavid – at this point in time.

    The thing is McDavid provides at least 99th percentile production EVERY season. EVERY season. Those guys will flirt with that a couple times in their career but will likely settle in at a 70-80 point rate the next few years. I really don’t think marchands numbers will stay that high the older he gets. MacKinnon has only done it once.

    I really don’t know why we’re having this discussion. Everyone knew in 2015 that whoever ended up with 97 would be paying him more than anyone else in the league. Boston’s late bloomers are not comparable to a guy who became the NHL’s best as a teenager. McDavid never had the option to sign retirement deals like Sid or Ovie.

  82. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    I think you are going to have sticker shock at some of these contracts that are going to be signed this offseason and next

    That is what people said last year, and then Pastrnak signed for less than 7.

    I think some teams will overpay, and some will underpay, relative to each other. As always.

    I will grant, however, that if Mathews gets near McDavid money, that hurts my point.

  83. Jaxon says:

    jp: Do you really think he’s worth that? Would you pick him in the 20s if he went back into the draft? I’d be hesitant to give up more than a 2nd, and I think moving from 15 to 10 is worth about that. I really don’t see why one would need to add Kassian (assuming he has positive value) or the 40 to the first round exchange to get Mascherin. The 2nd alone would seem to be pretty fair value imo.

    Yes, I do. I think he’s worth more. I think I’d pick him higher than the 20s. Maybe even top 5. I would be happy with a market overpay just to land what might be one of the best players outside the NHL to play alongside McDavid for years. He’ll be on a cheap entry level contract for 3 years and cost controlled for a long time. We’ve got 2 solid RW prospects in Puljujarvi and Yamamoto and a risky solid prospect in Benson on LW. Safin and Maksimov are promising but a ways away. Mascherin could step right into the lineup or need very little time in the AHL.

    Knowing the position that Florida is in makes it tempting to say they shouldn’t pay higher than a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but that is ignoring the fact of what the player is actually worth, and he is worth a lot. In Canadian junior, his draft season is one of the best since 2005. Adjusted for age, era, TOI his Primary Points as a Top 6 forward worked out to 29. 15th best since Crosby’s draft. A 38th overall pick, drafted that low likely due to his height. He’s not even that short (5’10”) and he has very good lower body strength (205 lbs!) and plays physically. He’s a fast skater and a hard worker. He was top of his team in scoring for 3 straight years including his draft season (2nd and 3rd seasons he lead the team by 40 pts and 21 pts so he certainly wasn’t being zoomed by anyone).

    I don’t really care if it is perceived that they “lose” that trade optically. It’s like getting 2 first round picks if they can trade 10th for 15th and one of those two “picks” (Mascherin) will likely make the NHL this season.

    His draft season comparables (expected 5-on-5 Primary Points with Top 6 TOI):
    Connor McDavid 44
    Andrei Svechnikov 39
    Mitchell Marner 37
    Dylan Strome 37
    Robby Fabbri 34
    Patrick Kane 32
    Nathan MacKinnon 30
    Taylor Hall 30
    Pierre-Luc Dubois 29
    Alex DeBrincat 29
    Adam Mascherin 29***
    Steven Stamkos 29
    Tyler Seguin 29
    Evander Kane 28
    Owen Tippett 28
    Nick Suzuki 27
    John Tavares 27
    Nikolaj Ehlers 26
    Leon Draisaitl 26

    That’s elite company and you’re getting him ready to make the jump instead of waiting two years. So, personally, I’d give up 10th straight across to get him, so trading 10th and 40th for Mascherin and 15th would be amazing in my books. And drafting a fairly-sure-thing-LW would allow them to gamble a bit on an offensive RHD like Merkley.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    I think you are going to have sticker shock at some of these contracts that are going to be signed this offseason and next

    Yup – there are going to be some contracts that are between $10M and $12.5M and, at some point, greater than $12.5M. Over time, McDavid’s contract will become more and more value. At the time it was signed, and currently, it’s the highest cap hit by almost 20% over the previous highest.

    He may be the best player in the world by that percentage but there are other high end player la providing greater value for their cap hits.

    When Hall, McKinnon, etc. re-up on their UFA deals, it will likely no longer be the case.

  85. jp says:

    Jaxon,

    Cool. If he’s anything near that value than clearly your position makes sense. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine: The thing is McDavid provides at least 99th percentile production EVERY season. EVERY season. Those guys will flirt with that a couple times in their career but will likely settle in at a 70-80 point rate the next few years. I really don’t think marchands numbers will stay that high the older he gets. MacKinnon has only done it once.

    I really don’t know why we’re having this discussion. Everyone knew in 2015 that whoever ended up with 97 would be paying him more than anyone else in the league. Boston’s late bloomers are not comparable to a guy who became the NHL’s best as a teenager. McDavid never had the option to sign retirement deals like Sid or Ovie.

    I’m not arguing that he shouldn’t have got the contract or that there is any issue with it.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Come on Canada, lets win this 3rd period.

    I want to watch CAN/SWE in the gold medal game tomorrow.

  88. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    There are people who think Krug is a 2nd pairing defenseman? He’s a third pairing PP specialist. Question is, how much do you want to pay to obtain such a beast on terms of assets out and cap hit assigned?

    I’d be willing to go Lucic and some salad retained. 😉

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kemper gives up another weak goal on the PL.

    It may have been deflected but tending is killing this team.

  90. Munny says:

    Sounded like Larsson got an absolutely glowing review from his coach after the USA match.

    Swiss score on the powerplay. Nuge, the baby-face killer in the box.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Beauvillier has had about 5 shots from the lower slot today and hasn’t been able to bury one.

    Sigh.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Sounded like Larsson got an absolutely glowing review from his coach after the USA match.

    Swiss score on the powerplay. Nuge, the baby-face killer in the box.

    He was named a top 3 player for Sweden in the tournament (along with OEL and Backland).

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Huge shift for the Barzal, ROR line. Hopefully score off the momentum.

  94. Wilde says:

    Jaxon:

    That’s elite company and you’re getting him ready to make the jump instead of waiting two years. So, personally, I’d give up 10th straight across to get him, so trading 10th and 40th for Mascherin and 15th would be amazing in my books. And drafting a fairly-sure-thing-LW would allow them to gamble a bit on an offensive RHD like Merkley.

    You know what’s even better than drafting a sure-thing LW?

    DRAFTING TWO SURE THING LW’s!!

    I’m going to look incredibly stupid if Farabee doesn’t turn out.

    Also, what do you make of the heavy slant of recency in your expected primary points list?

    Also also, why doesn’t Cassandra want to dance with my pro-McDavid contract position?

  95. Dustylegnd says:

    Alpine,

    Pasternak is a late bloomer?….

  96. jtblack says:

    LT is on it Today!!

  97. Richard S.S. says:

    At $12.5 Million per year, Connor McDavid is grossly underpaid. At $25.0 Milion per year, Connor McDavid is still underpaid. How much more is he worth? I think at about $35.0 Million per year, Connor McDavid is making fair market value. Let the trolls have their fun, that’s why they exist.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Canada with a ton of pressure on a PP but can’t cash.

  99. jtblack says:

    I want a brand new 2018 Audi R8 sports car, but I’m only willing to pay $5,000 then to me that’s value deal.

    Now I don’t think any dealership in the world will take my agreement but as long as I write it on the Internet it’s okay, it makes sense.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    At $12.5 Million per year, Connor McDavid is grossly underpaid.At $25.0 Milion per year, Connor McDavid is still underpaid.How much more is he worth?I think at about $35.0 Million per year, Connor McDavid is making fair market value.Let the trolls have their fun, that’s why they exist.

    This would be true in a non-cap world but that’s not reality.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Parayko with a bomb on a McDavid pass with the net empty and Canada is within one with two minutes to go.

  102. Dustylegnd says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I see Parayko is still having trouble getting his shot off!!!!

  103. Wilde says:

    Boys played well-ish considering the circumstances with regards to the goaltending

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Swiss win and ruin my plans for early tomorrow afternoon.

    Maybe i’ll get a third workout in tomorrow.

  105. Dustylegnd says:

    Wilde,

    Goaltending is 80% of the game….until you don’t have it…then it is 100%

  106. Westchester Oil says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Wilde,

    Goaltending is 80% of the game….until you don’t have it…then it is 100%

    I didn’t see the game but me thinks you should win if you outshoot the other team 46-16. As Bob McKenzie said, they shouldn’t call it ‘hockey’, they should call it ‘goaltending’.

  107. Richard S.S. says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That’s backwards. It’s true in a real world, but not in a Cap world. In as much as the Oilers are in a Cap world, then Connor McDavid’s contract is still a massive bargain.

  108. Spooky Lynx says:

    Parayko and Ekblad were not the answer when it came to a successful power play. This gives me pause when discussing a right-shot powerplay dman as the greatest need for the Oilers.

    It’s entirely possible that McDavid quarterbacking the PP on the half wall is just NOT a sound strategy. Or Connor needs to study his tape and figure out a new strategy with the puck on his stick.

  109. Rondo says:

    Spooky Lynx,

    Different game on international ice.

  110. Biggus Dickus says:

    I learned long ago that there are a few things you just don’t argue on this blog, even if they are firmly in the grey. But I’m gonna take another crack at it anyway.

    To say that McDavid is value at any price (at least up to the max 15mil) is to disregard the competitive nature of the salary cap. Here we play a zero sum game. If this is 2004, then the influx of money from connor far surpasses the money going back. This is still and economic win for Katz, of that I am sure. This is irrelevant from a competitive perspective though, as the Oilers are a cap team regardless. If we were Carolina, and spending 12.5 million on connor would give us the ability to have a bigger payroll, the argument could change.

    The competitive nature of the cap changes the dynamic. The Flames have Gaudreau and Monohan for basically the same price, and actually less since the Oilers have to pay (at the very least) an extra minimum contract to field a roster. The two combined scored 55g to Connor’s 41. Or you could say Hamilton plus one of the other two. Either way, I think the combination of players is more effective, but let’s assume for a second that they are equivalent. I would argue there are two key effects which drive value towards the Flames. The first being the injury factor. I think it is fair to assume that injuries are roughly equally likely to each player, and as such an injury to the Flames is less detrimental than to the Oilers in this comparison. The second has to do with depth, and the strengthening of the lineup due to having more strong players at the top. This follows from the assumption that you can get more value from a difference in talent lower in the lineup than higher in the lineup. And an addendum to that is about how players affect those around them directly. If we assume that the zooming factor of Connor on his two wingers is equal to the zooming factor of the two Flames forwards, then you should pick the two forwards over the one because it has less positions to fill, which costs money. Let’s assume that there is a perfectly no effect player (doesn’t zoom or drag), and his cost is 4million. The flames simply need to add him to have a line that is equal to the Oilers adding two of him. If the Oilers add two players at 2million who are drags, that is lowering the effect of McDavid.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Go Broncos!

  112. Wilde says:

    Spooky Lynx:

    It’s entirely possible that McDavid quarterbacking the PP on the half wall is just NOT a sound strategy. Or Connor needs to study his tape and figure out a new strategy with the puck on his stick.

    McDavid and four righties.

    Or at least three.

  113. Wilde says:

    Biggus Dickus,

    I’ll say it again:

    McDavid + Nuge + a 3M two way guy or a strong ELC player can beat superlines of 20M+ and top pairings of 10M+ with say, Klef-Larsson.

    That’s the math.

  114. Cassandra says:

    Wilde: You know what’s even better than drafting a sure-thing LW?

    DRAFTING TWO SURE THING LW’s!!

    I’m going to look incredibly stupid if Farabee doesn’t turn out.

    Also, what do you make of the heavy slant of recency in your expected primary points list?

    Also also, why doesn’t Cassandra want to dance with my pro-McDavid contract position?

    What you suggested (but did not demonstrate) was that a McDavid + 6M + 3M line was better than the Bergeron or MacKinnon lines. Or, to put it another way, the McDavid number is good so long as McDavid’s line is the best line in the league.

    Well by GF% I’m not sure it is. There are lots of guys this past year who had better GF%, while playing the same competition.

    This doesn’t mean McDavid isn’t the best player in the world. It means he has less help. But one of the reasons he has less help, and is going to have less help, is because he gets paid more than anyone else.

    So I think the argument is good in principle, but I don’t think the numbers support it. I am willing to be corrected.

    The rel

  115. Spooky Lynx says:

    Wilde: McDavid and four righties.

    Or at least three.

    I like it. Give him different options, let him find the open lane. Force the one timers. I’ve had about enough of the perimiter passes that lead to more perimiter passes.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    OriginalPouzar,

    That’s backwards.It’s true in a real world, but not in a Cap world.In as much as the Oilers are in a Cap world, then Connor McDavid’s contract is still a massive bargain.

    I don’t agree that the contract is a massive bargain in the cap world.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    Parayko and Ekblad were not the answer when it came to a successful power play. This gives me pause when discussing a right-shot powerplay dman as the greatest need for the Oilers.

    It’s entirely possible that McDavid quarterbacking the PP on the half wall is just NOT a sound strategy. Or Connor needs to study his tape and figure out a new strategy with the puck on his stick.

    They only got the one PP today and it was absolutely dominant and could have/should have scored.

    With that said, throughout the tournament, it was not overly-dangerous and I agree that I’m not sure
    McDavid QBing on the half wall is the right centerpiece.

    I’ve said for a while now that, at this point, Nugent-Hopkins is the better PP QB – although McDavid did get more dangerous when he made the decision to shoot more off the half-boards.

    The Oilers PP has been most successful with Leon at the bumper position and I hope they go back to that.

  118. Wilde says:

    Cassandra: What you suggested (but did not demonstrate) was that a McDavid + 6M + 3M line was better than the Bergeron or MacKinnon lines.Or, to put it another way, the McDavid number is good so long as McDavid’s line is the best line in the league.

    Well by GF% I’m not sure it is.There are lots of guys this past year who had better GF%, while playing the same competition.

    This doesn’t mean McDavid isn’t the best player in the world.It means he has less help.But one of the reasons he has less help, and is going to have less help, is because he gets paid more than anyone else.

    So I think the argument is good in principle, but I don’t think the numbers support it.I am willing to be corrected.

    The rel

    Fair enough.

    I actually was a jerk and provided an argument that /can’t/ be demonstrated yet because the Coach gave us SO little data over McDavid’s ELC with the reluctance to use Nuge and the reluctance to NOT use Lucic.

    I’m sure I could ballpark it, but I’m not bullish enough on shot and chance shares with regards to qual comp to pretend that I can just make statements like that.

    Another factor about this stuff is that the players on older deals around 6M AAV will actually decline as McDavid improves, the cap goes up, and the new RFA class that shares their prime years with him gets their deals as a reflection of that.

    So we’ll be talking about McDavid versus two, three closer to 8M players starting next fall.

    Although that also applies to McDavids teammates.

    Also, yes McDavid will receive ‘less help’, but because of the opponents money being on the bench at the same time he is, the Oilers will actually have the salary advantage on the ice provided the aforementioned principle rings true indeed.

    Or they /would/ have the salary advantage, if they didn’t have long term dead money slain by our pal Peter.

    I predict we will see in the weeks following the failure of the Ty Rattie experiment.

    I’m hopeful that McLellan will share my hypothesis about McDavid being best complemented with intelligent, responsible and creative players as opposed to big dudes and snipers.

    It worked with one, should really try two.

  119. Munny says:

    Tauntauns strike first.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner beat on a great deflection – no chance on that one.

  121. Cassandra says:

    Wilde:
    Biggus Dickus,

    I’ll say it again:

    McDavid + Nuge + a 3M two way guy or a strong ELC player can beat superlines of 20M+ and top pairings of 10M+ with say, Klef-Larsson.

    That’s the math.

    That’s the theory. It is a good theory. But I don’t think the numbers back it up.

    Over the last two years, as a signpost for super lines, Tarasenko, Backstrom, Schwartz, Panarin, and Neidereitter both have better GF%, while playing similar competition.

    Pastrnak and Mathews have the same.

    Forsberg, Stamkos–Kucherov, slightly below.

    So the McDavid 20 Million line is amongst the best in the league, but it doesn’t beat them.

    Now it is true that blank–Larsson is the worst top pairing of any of those teams, but most of those lines are doing it for less than 20 M, and they include UFA contracts to boot.

  122. slopitch says:

    If Krug is Jultz then we need to consider shopping from the bargain isle like Pittsburgh did rather then anything involving Klefbom or the #10. I actually don’t hate moving Klef for a proper top 4 RHD, he gets hurt a lot and it helps with the leftorium. I just think they have to get value. Or win a trade for once.

  123. Munny says:

    I get the feeling the colour analyst hasn’t seen a WHL game all year.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Broncos tie it up on a PP.

  125. Wilde says:

    Cassandra: That’s the theory.It is a good theory.But I don’t think the numbers back it up.

    Over the last two years, as a signpost for super lines, Tarasenko, Backstrom, Schwartz, Panarin, and Neidereitter both have better GF%, while playing similar competition.

    Pastrnak and Mathews have the same.

    Forsberg, Stamkos–Kucherov, slightly below.

    So the McDavid 20 Million line is amongst the best in the league, but it doesn’t beat them.

    Now it is true that blank–Larsson is the worst top pairing of any of those teams, but most of those lines are doing it for less than 20 M, and they include UFA contracts to boot.

    That’s not determined by the GF% of those lines being higher, though.

    Because, say, if MacKinnon’s lines kill softs better or the coach successfully hunts them better, then that will drive up their GF% without actually speaking to elite-vs-elite ability.

    That, and goaltending, but you know that already.

  126. Munny says:

    The Inland Empire Strikes Back.

  127. Wilde says:

    Cassandra:

    Now it is true that blank–Larsson is the worst top pairing of any of those teams, but most of those lines are doing it for less than 20 M, and they include UFA contracts to boot.

    This isn’t intellectually honest help for my theory, though, because the whole point is McDavid doing more with less, so the opponents top pairing /has/ to be better and has to get outplayed anyways due to McDavid in order to prove my theory.

  128. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: They only got the one PP today and it was absolutely dominant and could have/should have scored.

    With that said, throughout the tournament, it was not overly-dangerous and I agree that I’m not sure
    McDavid QBing on the half wall is the right centerpiece.

    I’ve said for a while now that, at this point, Nugent-Hopkins is the better PP QB – although McDavid did get more dangerous when he made the decision to shoot more off the half-boards.

    The Oilers PP has been most successful with Leon at the bumper position and I hope they go back to that.

    Connor not the best option at anything?

    Blasphemy!!

    Kidding of course. Most young players, even the great ones, usually still have a veteran to guide them. I think it’s a great idea to look at other options to improve the PP. That’s no insult to Connor. He gets it.
    Do what works. If it’s always The Connor show it gets easier to defend. Need options and the ability to change tactics.

  129. Wilde says:

    Also this theory works on a sort of McGyvered premise that NHL players are paid exactly what they’re worth and that’s both not true and the Oilers are (generally) on the poorer side of that spectrum(richer?).

    Sorry for spamming today, by the way.

  130. Biggus Dickus says:

    Wilde:
    Biggus Dickus,

    I’ll say it again:

    McDavid + Nuge + a 3M two way guy or a strong ELC player can beat superlines of 20M+ and top pairings of 10M+ with say, Klef-Larsson.

    That’s the math.

    How do you square the massive edge in SCF% to Pastrnak+Marchand vs McDavid+Nuge? Not to mention the difference is pretty small 65.38 vs 64.79 GF%. Sample size is a huge if. If you use McDavid and Draisaitl (57.41 GF%), then the Bruins have a significant edge.

    It’s also very difficult to quantify qualcomp imo in large part due to sample size. I don’t think you can do head to head, so all you can do is compare GF% for each group.

  131. Jaxon says:

    Wilde: You know what’s even better than drafting a sure-thing LW?

    DRAFTING TWO SURE THING LW’s!!

    I’m going to look incredibly stupid if Farabee doesn’t turn out.

    Also, what do you make of the heavy slant of recency in your expected primary points list?

    Also also, why doesn’t Cassandra want to dance with my pro-McDavid contract position?

    Haha. Farabee is definitely impressive. I’d like Mascherin and 15. More than Farabee.

    Re: recency, I did do some self-selection and left some busts / question marks off the list. Sue me, haha.

    2014 Sam Bennett 30
    2014 Spencer Watson 30
    2013 Nicolas Petan 29
    2009 Scott Glennie 29
    2013 Jonathan Drouin 29
    2011 Ryan Strome 28
    2006 Chris Stewart 28
    2005 Bobby Ryan 28
    2010 Justin Shugg 28
    2010 Tyler Toffoli 27
    2014 Nick Ritchie 26
    2008 Tyler Ennis 26

    Does it still seem recency biased if I include these players? That is the complete list since 2005 of players who have played more than an average estimated 13.5 minutes at 5-on-5. That 13.5 minutes line in the sand eliminates a lot of busts who I assume were getting their points against lesser competition.

    Re: Cassandra. I don’t know. Maybe you should ask her. I don’t have all the answers.

    EDIT: PS. The average draft year of the players in the list is 2012 which would indicate there isn’t really a recency bias if everyone is included. My bad for not including them all to try to make my case stronger. Although, in my defence, it is the norm to talk of successful comparables while ignoring the flops. Not many people were likely to say “Drouin compares really well to Scott Glennie” or “Owen Tippett compares well to a modern day Justin Shugg”, haha.

  132. Munny says:

    The colour analyst has apparently never seen Federov or Datsyuk play the hockey.

    #twoway

  133. Wilde says:

    Jaxon: Haha. Farabee is definitely impressive. I’d like Mascherin and 15. More than Farabee.

    Re: recency, I did do some self-selection and left some busts / question marks off the list. Sue me, haha.

    2014Sam Bennett30
    2014Spencer Watson30
    2013Nicolas Petan29
    2009Scott Glennie29
    2013Jonathan Drouin29
    2011Ryan Strome28
    2006Chris Stewart28
    2005Bobby Ryan28
    2010Justin Shugg28
    2010TylerToffoli27
    2014NickRitchie26
    2008Tyler Ennis26

    Does it still seem recency biased if I include these players? That is the complete list since 2005 of players who have played more than an average estimated 13.5 minutes at 5-on-5. That 13.5 minutes line in the sand eliminates a lot of busts who I assume were getting their points against lesser competition.

    Re: Cassandra. I don’t know. Maybe you should ask her.I don’t have all the answers.

    This will be awkward if you are the person on twitter who did this, but here’s someone who did a similar exercise’s results:

    https://twitter.com/307x/status/997458251401912321

    He also does the ‘cohorts’ thing which basically takes past players’ seasons that are within 5% of any given player, and then their success rate in the NHL binned into 1st line, 2nd line, 3rd line, 4th line, and replacement level.

  134. digger50 says:

    Jaxon: Yes, I do. I think he’s worth more. I think I’d pick him higher than the 20s. Maybe even top 5. I would be happy with a market overpay just to land what might be one of the best players outside the NHL to play alongside McDavid for years. He’ll be on a cheap entry level contract for 3 years and cost controlled for a long time. We’ve got 2 solid RW prospects in Puljujarvi and Yamamoto and a risky solid prospect in Benson on LW. Safin and Maksimov are promising but a ways away. Mascherin could step right into the lineup or need very little time in the AHL.

    Knowing the position that Florida is in makes it tempting to say they shouldn’t pay higher than a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but that is ignoring the fact of what the player is actually worth, and he is worth a lot. In Canadian junior, his draft season is one of the best since 2005. Adjusted for age, era, TOI his Primary Points as a Top 6 forward worked out to 29. 15th best since Crosby’s draft. A 38th overall pick, drafted that low likely due to his height. He’s not even that short (5’10”) and he has very good lower body strength (205 lbs!) and plays physically. He’s a fast skater and a hard worker. He was top of his team in scoring for 3 straight years including his draft season (2nd and 3rd seasons he lead the team by 40 pts and 21 pts so he certainly wasn’t being zoomed by anyone).

    I don’t really care if it is perceived that they “lose” that trade optically. It’s like getting 2 first round picks if they can trade 10th for 15th and one of those two “picks” (Mascherin) will likely make the NHL this season.

    His draft season comparables (expected 5-on-5 Primary Points with Top 6 TOI):
    Connor McDavid44
    Andrei Svechnikov39
    Mitchell Marner37
    Dylan Strome37
    Robby Fabbri34
    Patrick Kane32
    Nathan MacKinnon30
    Taylor Hall30
    Pierre-Luc Dubois29
    Alex DeBrincat29
    Adam Mascherin29***
    Steven Stamkos29
    Tyler Seguin29
    Evander Kane28
    Owen Tippett28
    Nick Suzuki27
    John Tavares27
    Nikolaj Ehlers26
    LeonDraisaitl26

    That’s elite company and you’re getting him ready to make the jump instead of waiting two years. So, personally, I’d give up 10th straight across to get him, so trading 10th and 40th for Mascherin and 15th would be amazing in my books. And drafting a fairly-sure-thing-LW would allow them to gamble a bit on an offensive RHD like Merkley.

    Great post

    I have no idea if it would work, but it is the type of thinking that would make this team better.

    I have a vision of Peter waving the number 10 pick in the air “who wants number 10?” Once he gets an offer he says “but that’s all I could get”. It’s such a disturbing image.

    On a more positive note, I’m happy with the Joel P acquisition. The Oil thinking outside the boox, this is good. Scouting leagues for value? Good. Big game hunting? Well also good. Regardless of how they go hunting they should be interested in all. But before pulling the trigger they have to be absolutely certain on the move. And if not, walk away and continue the hunt until you are absolutely certain.

    I do like theMascherin bet, would love to know what the ask is.

  135. Wilde says:

    Biggus Dickus: How do you square the massive edge in SCF% to Pastrnak+Marchand vs McDavid+Nuge? Not to mention the difference is pretty small 65.38 vs 64.79 GF%. Sample size is a huge if. If you use McDavid and Draisaitl (57.41 GF%), then the Bruins have a significant edge.

    It’s also very difficult to quantify qualcomp imo in large part due to sample size. I don’t think you can do head to head, so all you can do is compare GF% for each group.

    Honestly I’d consider doing a game-to-game next year to test it.

    My deal with last year is that this just didn’t happen. Connor had a drag on his line almost always, and never had the theorised combination.

    Todd really, really messed Connor’s year up imo between the powerplay and Lucic and and and…

  136. Munny says:

    The fine Saskatchewan town of Estaphan scores for the Broncs.

  137. ArmchairGM says:

    John Chambers:
    ArmchairGM,

    Every team hates their version of Justin Schultz

    They don’t hate him, they just know where he fits and 2LD isn’t it.

  138. Spooky Lynx says:

    Skinner reminds me a lot of Rinne. A bit smaller, but great positioning and fairly athletic.

  139. Munny says:

    Nice spotlight on Skinner’s play.

  140. Spooky Lynx says:

    Munny:
    Nice spotlight on Skinner’s play.

    Carey Price and James Reimer were the comparables given.

  141. Jaxon says:

    Wilde: https://twitter.com/307x/status/997458251401912321

    Not me. That is a great tool for establishing chances of success. I was more interested (obsessed?) in coming up with a formula to indicate how many 5-on-5 primary points a drafted player might score if they jumped right into the NHL. With all the players since 2005 who have made the jump I’ve managed to get them all within a few points barring a few outliers using this formula.

    I’ve noticed someone (Jeremy Davis at Canucks Army) has taken it a step further and included an adjustment for usage on their junior team but wasn’t trying to predict an NHL equivalent. He also separated D and FWD equivalencies, which is hugely valuable as they don’t retain points at nearly the same rate.
    https://canucksarmy.com/2018/05/04/2018-nhl-draft-spring-rankings/
    I also think that the situational adjustment may be doubling up on itself or canceling itself out somehow although I can’t quite express why (I’m a stats amateur).

  142. lynn says:

    How does Sahvan Khaira look on defence for the Broncos? He played for the Oilers rookies in Penticton last September. Is his play worth a minor-league contract? Or is USports (CIS) the best option for him?

  143. Spooky Lynx says:

    I was thinking the other day about a way to assign each players importance on a scoring play and came to the simplest conclusion of ->

    Goals worth 5 points.
    Primary assists worth 4 points.
    Secondary assists worth 3 points.
    3rd assists worth 2points.
    4th assists worth 1 point.

    It seems to me that after a full season you’d have a pretty good idea of who is truly contributing to goals for, and how much they are.

    I think it would be a nice supplementary stat to go along with GF%.

    It would take a lot of work (so I have less than zero intention of doing it) but do any of you see value in this?

  144. Spooky Lynx says:

    lynn:
    How does Sahvan Khaira look on defence for the Broncos? He played for the Oilers rookies in Penticton last September. Is his play worth a minor-league contract? Or is USports (CIS) the best option for him?

    He’s got the stomach flu so he’s been quarantined from the team. Gotta feel for him.

  145. Bag of Pucks says:

    At the time McDavid’s second contract was being negotiated, the team had broke a 10 year playoff drought and he’d won the Art Ross, Ted Lindsay, and Hart trophies as a 20 year old. With the Hart win, he was the 3rd youngest player to do it since Gretzky and Crosby and he signed for a lesser % of cap than Crosby’s second deal with longer term.

    Complaining about this contract is why we can’t have nice things.

  146. Wilde says:

    Jaxon: Not me. That is a great tool for establishing chances of success. I was more interested (obsessed?) in coming up with a formula to indicate how many 5-on-5 primary points a drafted player might score if they jumped right into the NHL. With all the players since 2005 who have made the jump I’ve managed to get them all within a few points barring a few outliers using this formula.

    I’ve noticed someone (Jeremy Davis at Canucks Army) has taken it a step further and included an adjustment for usage on their junior team but wasn’t trying to predict an NHL equivalent. He also separated D and FWD equivalencies, which is hugely valuable as they don’t retain points at nearly the same rate.
    https://canucksarmy.com/2018/05/04/2018-nhl-draft-spring-rankings/
    I also think that the situational adjustment may be doubling up on itself or canceling itself out somehow although I can’t quite express why (I’m a stats amateur).

    Re: Dmen vs forwards, seems like most people just include 2nd assists for Dmen.

    Yes I read that CanucksArmy post when it came out, it’s fantastic.

    I’m not sold on their weighting though.

    I have a really bad feeling about involvement percentage especially. I think junior coaches fuck that stuff right up. It’s how you miss guys like Kevin Labanc.

    Same with in-league qualcomp. I don’t think the backchecking and defense is good enough to inhibit scoring rates, especially considering most of even the elite forward prospects have scouting reports with “needs to work on play without the puck/defensive side of the game”.

    I just don’t think it’s /that/ much harder to score against higher junior point producers.

  147. lynn says:

    Spooky Lynx,

    Yikes! Too bad for him, indeed.

  148. frjohnk says:

    Rake 2.0: From what you saw of their data, do you think it’s trustworthy? My only knowledge of their data was that they had Russel as one of the leaders in zone exits.

    From what I remember Sportlogig has data on total zone exits (skating, passing, and chipping it off the boards) and also zone exits with control.

    I have not seen Russell’s numbers from Sportlogig but from the public tracking I have seen he always had higher numbers of total zone exits but a lower percentage of controlled exits compared to Oiler Dman and to other Dmen across the league.

    Sportlogigs numbers are solid but as always it is the interpretation of the numbers that is important.

  149. Biggus Dickus says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    At the time McDavid’s second contract was being negotiated, the team had broke a 10 year playoff drought and he’d won the Art Ross, Ted Lindsay, and Hart trophies as a 20 year old. With the Hart win, he was the 3rd youngest player to do it since Gretzky and Crosby and he signed for a lesser % of cap than Crosby’s second deal with longer term.

    Complaining about this contract is why we can’t have nice things.

    This is how this goes. The argument now becomes the “McDavid is not the Problem”, and that anyone who doesn’t accept that the idea that it is a value contract is an inbred hater.

    1- McDavid could have gotten 15 million somewhere. True
    2- McDavid alone is the best possible use of 1/6 of the salary cap. Not necessarily true.

    Two different arguments. It is that simple.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    At the time McDavid’s second contract was being negotiated, the team had broke a 10 year playoff drought and he’d won the Art Ross, Ted Lindsay, and Hart trophies as a 20 year old. With the Hart win, he was the 3rd youngest player to do it since Gretzky and Crosby and he signed for a lesser % of cap than Crosby’s second deal with longer term.

    Complaining about this contract is why we can’t have nice things.

    To be clear on my position, I am in no way complaining about the contract – I’ve got no problem with it, I would be in favor of it being signed again, its not an issue going forward – I simply don’t consider it a value contract in a cap system vis-a-vis the other cap hits in the league. That doesn’t mean its a bad contract or that there is any problem with it.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    A couple huge saves on the PK for Skinner!

  152. Biggus Dickus says:

    OriginalPouzar: To be clear on my position, I am in no way complaining about the contract – I’ve got no problem with it, I would be in favor of it being signed again, its not an issue going forward – I simply don’t consider it a value contract in a cap system vis-a-vis the other cap hits in the league. That doesn’t mean its a bad contract or that there is any problem with it.

    That is it in a nutshell, but that argument is basically a religious one for who knows what reason.

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: It’s interesting that every Bruins mock for 18-19 has them acquiring a 2LD (Klefbom and Hanifin are the two most common targets) and not much else. They all have Chara on the first pairing and Krug on the third… it’s obvious even to Bruins fans that Krug isn’t going to succeed at 2LD.

    I didn’t know that.

    Interesting.

    We know.

    Bruins fan know.

    Does Pete know?

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: I’d bet it’s Sportlogig.

    I have had the chance to see some players stats from Sportlogig and it’s miles ahead of any public database.

    Yeah I know they have some good stuff and I know a guy who works for them (won’t let me peek at the data though)

    I wonder how many years of data they have?

    I wonder what repeatable things they’ve found?

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Nuge has been a 46% GF player without Hall/McDavid over the last 3 years.

    Ty Rattie is an AHLer.

    Together with McDavid they put up a 65% GF.

    That’s the value of McDavid.

    Maroon scored 24 goals over 3 years with ANA and that includes significant time with Getzlaf.

    He scored 27 with McDavid in one season.

    That’s the value of McDavid.

    You can’t bring Scheifele or any other player into this conversation unless they have a history of beating the best with below average help to the tune of 57%-62% GF.

    All the other RFA kids mentioned are on good line with above average and sometimes Elite help.

    McDavid doesn’t get that kinds of help to achieve what he does.

    There is one comparable in the league and that’s Crosby because he’s done it his whole career.

    Also,

    He doesn’t turn 22 until next January.

    It’s insane that this is a discussion.

  156. Scungilli Slushy says:

    John Chambers:
    Perhaps the Oilers should be leveraging Klefbom to obtain more of a value contract on an ELC as opposed to a higher salary player.

    Wouldn’t Klef for Carlo make a lot more sense for us? Save $3M, solidify the right side, and have a core of defensive defensemen to play

    From there you have the cash to sign Evander Kane

    Klef for Carlo and DeBrusk maybe.

    Klef is a first pair quality young D on a great contract. He has offense size and can skate. He’s not perfect but I would say all taken into consideration one of the best of his type there is.

    IF you trade a player like that it is to be for a haul, or special player. In a deal for a similar right side player probably, in a deal for one of the top 2 picks maybe if the mix was right.

  157. Munny says:

    And Skinner, who was the story of the second period to this point, allows a shortie on a breakaway.

    A few minutes later Broncos take back the lead on another Estephan marker with under a minute on the clock.

  158. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Scheifelle is a great player on a great contract. Good thing for Chevaldayoff cause last offseason he signed Steve Mason for 4.1 mil a year, Kulikov for 4.3 mil a year and Little for 5.3 mil a year and already regrets every single one of those. He single handedly limiting his teams window to probably the next 2 years. He is going to have to give raises to Laine, Hellebyuck, Trouba, Wheeler, Connor, Roslovic, Morrissey) this offseason or next

    although thankfully for him he inherited a generational amateur scouting staff (Hiller Head of amateur scouting, Bogdanovich head of euro amateur scouting, Comeau former head who wanted more family time) who all came over from Atlanta franchise

  159. Biggus Dickus says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Nuge has been a 46% GF player without Hall/McDavid over the last 3 years.

    Ty Rattie is an AHLer.

    Together with McDavid they put up a 65% GF.

    That’s the value of McDavid.

    Maroon scored 24 goals over 3 years with ANA and that includes significant time with Getzlaf.

    He scored 27 with McDavid in one season.

    That’s the value of McDavid.

    You can’t bring Scheifele or any other player into this conversation unless they have a history of beating the best with below average help to the tune of 57%-62% GF.

    All the other RFA kids mentioned are on good line with above average and sometimes Elite help.

    McDavid doesn’t get that kinds of help to achieve what he does.

    There is one comparable in the league and that’s Crosby because he’s done it his whole career.

    Also,

    He doesn’t turn 22 until next January.

    It’s insane that this is a discussion.

    I can’t even think of a team that was so shitty that they had an AHLer playing top line RW. Closest I can think of is JF Jaques, but even then, he was not there on merit like Rattie was. That is the value of Chiarelli.

    I don’t like your facination with relative GF%, as I’m not sure it tells you what you think it does. Chris Bosh in TO vs South Beach and Kovalchuk are just a few cases of players putting up more offense on shittier teams. I think GF% of the team without their number 1 player tells an important story, but I don’t think the relative rate is as cut and dry as you imply.

    I’m not sure if you are willifully being ignorant, or whether you truly can’t understand that McDavid has some finite value. The question being addressed is how much.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Nuge has been a 46% GF player without Hall/McDavid over the last 3 years.

    Ty Rattie is an AHLer.

    Together with McDavid they put up a 65% GF.

    That’s the value of McDavid.

    Maroon scored 24 goals over 3 years with ANA and that includes significant time with Getzlaf.

    He scored 27 with McDavid in one season.

    That’s the value of McDavid.

    You can’t bring Scheifele or any other player into this conversation unless they have a history of beating the best with below average help to the tune of 57%-62% GF.

    All the other RFA kids mentioned are on good line with above average and sometimes Elite help.

    McDavid doesn’t get that kinds of help to achieve what he does.

    There is one comparable in the league and that’s Crosby because he’s done it his whole career.

    Also,

    He doesn’t turn 22 until next January.

    It’s insane that this is a discussion.

    Fair enough and good points but I don’t think anyone is discounting how good he is and how valuable he is. He is the most valuable player in the league and he’s paid like it. He’s likely value for his contract but I still don’t think, at this time, it’s a “value contract”.

    You mentioned he has one comparable, that comparable has a cap hit of almost $4M less for essentially the same value (maybe a bit less value).

    Crosby has a value contract.

    Of course, it was signed years ago and a lot has happened since then but it doesn’t change the fact that the players provide similar value and one has a cap hit of $3.8M higher.

    In four years I have no doubt that McDavid’s contract will be a huge value contract.

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Patrick Maroon played 657 minutes with Ryan Getzlaf over 3 seasons and scored 5 5v5 goals during that time.

    That works out to 0.46 goals /60

    Patrick Maroon played 1392 minutes with Connor McDavid over 3 seasons and scored 29 5v5 goals during that time.

    That works out to 1.25 goals /60

    So Maroon scored at 2.72 times the rate with McDavid as he did Getzlaf

    Ryan Getzlaf makes $8.25MM/yr

    So McDavid is work 2.72 x $8.25 = 22.44MM/yr

    $12.5MM is value.

    🙂

  162. Spooky Lynx says:

    Yikes. Broncos give up their second shorty of the game. 3-3 now.

  163. Munny says:

    Tauntauns get a second shortie to tie it up.

  164. Spooky Lynx says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Lol! This is officially my new argument for Connors value.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I did at thing where I show every team’s top 5v5 scorer over the last 11 years:

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2018/05/11-seasons-of-nhl-teams-5v5-goal-share.html

    Look at the last 2 years and list all the players whose Relative Goal Share is over 10% (note: this favours very good players on bad teams, but it does show the baseline for the team)

    Here is everyone who is there in 17/18:

    17/18
    WILLIAM.KARLSSON 23.6
    CLAUDE.GIROUX 17.7
    AUSTON.MATTHEWS 17.3
    VLADIMIR.TARASENKO 17.0
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 16.0
    MARK.STONE 15.7
    ARTEMI.PANARIN 14.7
    JAMIE.BENN 14.4
    TAYLOR.HALL 14.1
    EVGENY.DADONOV 13.6
    DAVID.PASTRNAK 12.1
    BROCK.BOESER 11.4
    JOHNNY.GAUDREAU 11.4
    SEBASTIAN.AHO 11.0
    MATHEW.BARZAL 10.7

    Here’s everyone who’s there in 16/17
    16/17
    HENRIK.ZETTERBERG 20.5
    JASON.ZUCKER 17.1
    JAROMIR.JAGR 16.5
    NIKITA.KUCHEROV 16.4
    SEAN.COUTURIER 15.3
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 13.2
    BRENT.BURNS 13.2
    NATHAN.MACKINNON 12.4
    MARK.SCHEIFELE 11.7
    TAYLOR.HALL 10.7
    BO.HORVAT 10.0

    Here’s everyone who is there both years;

    Connor McDavid

    That’s it.

    Also,

    McDavid missed on on being on this list due to injury in 15/16 (I only used top 5v5 scorers and Hall had more

    McDavid still had over 10% Rel GF% so here’s that year including him:

    JOE.THORNTON 26.8
    DANIEL.SEDIN 19.8
    ANTHONY.DUCLAIR 18.5
    JAMES.NEAL 18.2
    KYLE.PALMIERI 16.2
    ANZE.KOPITAR 13.7
    PIERRE-ALEX.PARENTEAU 12.3
    PATRICK.KANE 12.2
    BLAKE.WHEELER 11.9
    TAYLOR.HALL 11.8
    BRAYDEN.SCHENN 11.8
    BRAD.MARCHAND 11.1
    DYLAN.LARKIN 11.1
    BRANDON.SAAD 10.9
    Connor McDavid 10.3

    How many names appear twice in 3 years?

    McDavid.
    Hall. *weeps*

    How many appear all 3 years?

    McDavid.

    If you look closely you’ll see a couple of linemates in different years.

    You see Wheeler one year, Schiefele the next.

    You see Marchand one year and Pastrnak a couple years later.

    This is the type of help those elite players get, other elite players.

    McDavid gets none of that. The closest he gets is Draisaitl and Drai away from McDavid is 42.4% GF this year and 44.2% last year.

    He’s not in the conversation with the Marchands and Wheelers of the world. Hopefully he will be, but he’s not today.

    Value deal and its not close.

  166. sumaclab says:

    After watching Ryan Oreilly with McNuge im sold. There is my big trade for the summer. If Im blowing my wad on a player its 90. Can play center and wing. I would certainly kick the tires on him. Contract wise would Buffalo take back Sekera plus for him. Youd think Buffalo is thinking that there young dman Dahlin will need a more seasoned partner. And honestly they have not moved the needle one inch with OReilly in the lineup. Id make a call.

  167. Munny says:

    Broncos do a good job of killing an incredibly stupid penalty by their over-age Captain.

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Of course, it was signed years ago and a lot has happened since then but it doesn’t bangs the fact that the players provide similar value and one has a cap hit of $3.8M higher.

    Who brings similar value to who while making $3.8?

    I honestly don’t know who you are referring to.

  169. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hall is there all 3 years. The Devils suck.

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    sumaclab:
    After watching Ryan Oreilly with McNuge im sold. There is my big trade for the summer. If Im blowing my wad on a player its 90. Can play center and wing. I would certainly kick the tires on him. Contract wise would Buffalo take back Sekera plus for him. Youd think Buffalo is thinking that there young dman Dahlin will need a more seasoned partner. And honestly they have not moved the needle one inch with OReilly in the lineup. Id make a call.

    I’ve liked ROR forever.

    Drai or RNH for ROR?

    5 more years at $7.5MM

  171. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Crosby is OP’s referent.

  172. Wilde says:

    Can’t GF%rel be gamed by something silly like who has the worse 4th line, though?

  173. Wilde says:

    sumaclab:
    After watching Ryan Oreilly with McNuge im sold. There is my big trade for the summer. If Im blowing my wad on a player its 90. Can play center and wing. I would certainly kick the tires on him. Contract wise would Buffalo take back Sekera plus for him. Youd think Buffalo is thinking that there young dman Dahlin will need a more seasoned partner. And honestly they have not moved the needle one inch with OReilly in the lineup. Id make a call.

    Couple problems here:

    – Sekera and Dahlin are both lefties

    – this is a this summer hypothetical and Sekera may have negative value

  174. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra: Pretty much all RFA contracts are terrific deals for their teams compared to the UFA alternatives.That is the nature of an RFA deal.That is the wrong question.

    The right question is whether it is a value contract in comparison to other RFA deals.This is a legitimate question that doesn’t going away by being ignored.

    It is by a landslide the largest RFA contract in the league.So the analytical question is how much better than everyone else does McDAvid have to be for it to be a value contract in comparison to other RFA contracts?

    That question has not been answered, let alone settled.And the character attacks you’ve made, suggesting the question is motivated by jealousy or envy are uncalled for.

    I can’t agree with this. There is no comparable young player so no comparable contract.

    The questions people keep hammering on are the wrong questions. The level of detail and control isn’t possible in reality that many are asking for. Chiarelli has not done the best deals possible in contracts, but not the worst. There are currently no team killer contracts even if Lucic is a worry.

    DMost teams have an underperforming long term contract. At least Lucic is one of the few players that can say a word and calm shit down when guys like Getzlaf do their thing. He skated off Lucic eyes down. Helpful with a young team. Although a skill losing relevance, it still has some value.

    The issues hurting success are a bottom 6 not scoring or treading water. And a few vets getting paid that aren’t covering the bet. Talbot has failed 2 out of 3 seasons so far.

    The worries aren’t Connor and Leon, they are Strome, Benning and Nurse’s new contracts and plans for aging players in light of expansion. And not signing more fading vets like Cammelleri or Maroon as the league gets faster.

  175. Munny says:

    We’re going to extra hockey.

  176. Biggus Dickus says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I did at thing where I show every team’s top 5v5 scorer over the last 11 years:

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2018/05/11-seasons-of-nhl-teams-5v5-goal-share.html

    Look at the last 2 years and list all the players whose Relative Goal Share is over 10% (note: this favours very good players on bad teams, but it does show the baseline for the team)

    Here is everyone who is there in 17/18:

    17/18
    WILLIAM.KARLSSON23.6
    CLAUDE.GIROUX17.7
    AUSTON.MATTHEWS17.3
    VLADIMIR.TARASENKO17.0
    CONNOR.MCDAVID16.0
    MARK.STONE15.7
    ARTEMI.PANARIN14.7
    JAMIE.BENN14.4
    TAYLOR.HALL14.1
    EVGENY.DADONOV13.6
    DAVID.PASTRNAK12.1
    BROCK.BOESER11.4
    JOHNNY.GAUDREAU11.4
    SEBASTIAN.AHO11.0
    MATHEW.BARZAL10.7

    Here’s everyone who’s there in 16/17
    16/17
    HENRIK.ZETTERBERG20.5
    JASON.ZUCKER17.1
    JAROMIR.JAGR16.5
    NIKITA.KUCHEROV16.4
    SEAN.COUTURIER15.3
    CONNOR.MCDAVID13.2
    BRENT.BURNS13.2
    NATHAN.MACKINNON12.4
    MARK.SCHEIFELE11.7
    TAYLOR.HALL10.7
    BO.HORVAT10.0

    Here’s everyone who is there both years;

    Connor McDavid

    That’s it.

    Also,

    McDavid missed on on being on this list due to injury in 15/16 (I only used top 5v5 scorers and Hall had more

    McDavid still had over 10% Rel GF% so here’s that year including him:

    JOE.THORNTON26.8
    DANIEL.SEDIN19.8
    ANTHONY.DUCLAIR18.5
    JAMES.NEAL18.2
    KYLE.PALMIERI16.2
    ANZE.KOPITAR13.7
    PIERRE-ALEX.PARENTEAU12.3
    PATRICK.KANE12.2
    BLAKE.WHEELER11.9
    TAYLOR.HALL11.8
    BRAYDEN.SCHENN11.8
    BRAD.MARCHAND11.1
    DYLAN.LARKIN11.1
    BRANDON.SAAD10.9
    Connor McDavid10.3

    How many names appear twice in 3 years?

    McDavid.
    Hall.*weeps*

    How many appear all 3 years?

    McDavid.

    If you look closely you’ll see a couple of linemates in different years.

    You see Wheeler one year, Schiefele the next.

    You see Marchand one year and Pastrnak a couple years later.

    This is the type of help those elite players get, other elite players.

    McDavid gets none of that.The closest he gets is Draisaitl and Drai away from McDavid is 42.4% GF this year and 44.2% last year.

    He’s not in the conversation with the Marchands and Wheelers of the world.Hopefully he will be, but he’s not today.

    Value deal and its not close.

    There is a lot more predictive value in your B) sortings than your C) sortings. I don’t think the relative is super important. Lebron’s relative affect is lightyears beyond KD, or Curry, but I’m not sure it is clear he is that far ahead of either at this point in his career.

    Now I feel like I’m arguing against Connor, but I really don’t like GFrel.

  177. Munny says:

    It’s all Tauntaun in the OT period and they finally get one past Skinner. Broncos really missed Steenbergen in the second half of the game.

  178. ArmchairGM says:

    John Chambers:
    Perhaps the Oilers should be leveraging Klefbom to obtain more of a value contract on an ELC as opposed to a higher salary player.

    Wouldn’t Klef for Carlo make a lot more sense for us? Save $3M, solidify the right side, and have a core of defensive defensemen to play defense.

    From there you have the cash to sign Evander Kane

    So, trading a puck-mover for a shutdown D-man is what you got out of Chairelli’s year-end presser??

    Okaaaay.

  179. jzed says:

    If the Oiler poweplay does not mirror what I’ve seen in the playoffs this year, they are doomed. Need shooters on each circle, a screen in front of the net, a high pick retrieval guy and the cannon on the point. Hopefully the shooters can also pass the puck when coverage gives up lanes to create 1 time chances. Right now, who goes where?

  180. jzed says:

    Also, the poweplays that work have been in operation all year, clearly, no excuse for the pathetic shit show the Oil trotted out there all year.

  181. Munny says:

    Lightning strike early. Sheesh.

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Of course, it was signed years ago and a lot has happened since then but it doesn’t bangs the fact that the players provide similar value and one has a cap hit of $3.8M higher.

    Who brings similar value to who while making $3.8?

    I honestly don’t know who you are referring to.

    You mentioned that McDavid has one comparable – Crosby.

    They have similar value (maybe McDavid has slightly higher value) but Crosby’s cap hit is $3.8M less than McDavids.

    As of right now, Crosby has a value contract – he provides value in excess of his cap hit – he outperforms his contract relative to the cap hits of other players.

    As of right now, McDavid doesn’t have a value contract, in my opinion – don’t get me wrong, he’s likely “value for the contract” but he doesn’t out perform the cap hit (which is my definition of a value contract). He’s the best player in the league but he’s also paid $2M more than anyone else. He performs for his cap hit but he doesn’t outperform it relative to other cap hits in the league.

    Two players with the same (or very similar value), as you said. One of them with a cap hit of $8.7M. The other with a cap hit of $12.5M. At this point in time, its pretty clear which player is providing more value for their cap hit.

  183. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: Don’t forget, everyone, WHL (Skinner) vs. QMJHL (Dobson) at 2pm – sadly, I’ll only be able to watch half live before I have to head to the airport to pick up the wife after her long journey home from South America.

    I hope she packed you an alpaca.

  184. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s everyone who is there both years;
    Connor McDavid
    That’s it.

    Am I missing something, or isn’t Hall in both of those years? He appears in all three lists you provide.

  185. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: You mentioned that McDavid has one comparable – Crosby.

    They have similar value (maybe McDavid has slightly higher value) but Crosby’s cap hit is $3.8M less than McDavids.

    As of right now, Crosby has a value contract – he provides value in excess of his cap hit – he outperforms his contract relative to the cap hits of other players.

    As of right now, McDavid doesn’t have a value contract, in my opinion – don’t get me wrong, he’s likely “value for the contract” but he doesn’t out perform the cap hit (which is my definition of a value contract). He’s the best player in the league but he’s also paid $2M more than anyone else. He performs for his cap hit but he doesn’t outperform it relative to other cap hits in the league.

    Two players with the same (or very similar value), as you said.One of them with a cap hit of $8.7M.The other with a cap hit of $12.5M. At this point in time, its pretty clear which player is providing more value for their cap hit.

    And when Crosby resigns for 14 M and Connor is destroying his numbers what will you say then?

    Comparing old and new contracts is not worthy of you.

    Because while technically true perhaps it’s dishonest to the point being made.

    McDavid’s contract is the best high end contract in the league right now and will only get better every game and every new contract for a good player until it’s done. Lucky us!

  186. Munny says:

    Lightnng strikes twice.

  187. Munny says:

    what the hell is Brett Connolly thinking?

  188. Richard S.S. says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Then please note, this is one place where we will always disagree and that’s reasonable.

  189. Munny says:

    Caps better rediscover themselves between periods or they are going to get blown out.

  190. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: I hope she packed you an alpaca.

    She bought me a baby alpaca scarf – its sooooo soft.

    I was shocked when she mentioned it as she’s a vegan, etc., but they just shave them – thank goodness.

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: And when Crosby resigns for 14 M and Connor is destroying his numbers what will you say then?

    Comparing old and new contracts is not worthy of you.

    Because while technically true perhaps it’s dishonest to the point being made.

    McDavid’s contract is the best high end contract in the league right now and will only get better every game and every new contract for a good player until it’s done. Lucky us!

    To your first question, if you’ve actually ready my posts, you will know the answer as I’ve been very clear that I fully expect McDavid’s contract to become a value contract for a good portion of its term.

    I have never once said its a bad contract, I’ve never said its a problem, I’ve never said they team shouldn’t have signed it – I’ve simply stated that, as of now, being the highest cap hit in the league by $2M, its not a value contract – AS OF NOW!

  192. Munny says:

    Caps continue their ways in the second. 3-0.

  193. Richard S.S. says:

    Peter Chiarelli has trades to make, players to sign, maybe buyouts and/or waiver stuff. Until Training Camp, I doubt he’ll be done even then. I have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Adam Larsson, Cam Talbot and Mikko Koskinen on next year’s Roster. Once the time limits have passed for buyouts and stuff, I’ll add others. But until something else happens, the list remains the same.

  194. Munny says:

    Caps find a spark of life. Kuz with the deflection.

  195. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I didn’t know that.

    Interesting.

    We know.

    Bruins fan know.

    Does Pete know?

    He must. But what does he think of Klefbom?

  196. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah I know they have some good stuff and I know a guy who works for them (won’t let me peek at the data though)

    I wonder how many years of data they have?

    I wonder what repeatable things they’ve found?

    It was confirmed to me that Kelly gets his data from Sportslogiq via TSN.

    Not sure what he’s looking at though.

    His “scoring chance” numbers are really low.

    I wonder if he using an “OMGBBQ” scoring chances and not just “run of the mill’

  197. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Biggus Dickus: I can’t even think of a team that was so shitty that they had an AHLer playing top line RW. Closest I can think of is JF Jaques, but even then, he was not there on merit like Rattie was. That is the value of Chiarelli.

    I don’t like your facination with relative GF%, as I’m not sure it tells you what you think it does. Chris Bosh in TO vs South Beach and Kovalchuk are just a few cases of players putting up more offense on shittier teams. I think GF% of the team without their number 1 player tells an important story, but I don’t think the relative rate is as cut and dry as you imply.

    I’m not sure if you are willifully being ignorant, or whether you truly can’t understand that McDavid has some finite value. The question being addressed is how much.

    I am of the opinion that McDavid’s finite value is more than what the CBA will allow him to be paid.

    Is that wilfully ignorant?

    I can’t believe someone questioning McDavid’s value is calling other people wilfully ignorant.

  198. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Biggus Dickus: There is a lot more predictive value in your B) sortings than your C) sortings. I don’t think the relative is super important. Lebron’s relative affect is lightyears beyond KD, or Curry, but I’m not sure it is clear he is that far ahead of either at this point in his career.

    Now I feel like I’m arguing against Connor, but I really don’t like GFrel.

    Predictive of what?

  199. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hall is there all 3 years. The Devils suck.

    Of course…..

  200. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Crosby is OP’s referent.

    You can’t use Crosby’s current contract.

    It’s 12 years long with a tail.

    His actual salary in the first 3 years was 12MM starting in 13/14

    Cap in those 3 years:

    63.4
    69.0
    71.4

    So Crosby’s % of cap those year if he had to have all 12 on the cap would be:

    18.9%
    17.3%
    16.8%

    McDavid starts at 16.7 and will drop from there.

    Crosby was 27 when that contract started. McDavid is 21.

    The last 3 years of Crosby’s contract pays him $3MM/yr.

    I wonder if he’ll develop an allergy to his equipment?

Newer Comments »

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca