The lessons of Nixon

by Lowetide

In 1979, the New York Yankees drafted a tall, thin centerfielder who was bullet fast with lumber and leather. In 1980, playing for Greensboro of the Sally League, Otis Nixon had 113 walks, 67 stolen bases and an on-base percentage of .412. He scored 124 runs, .278 BA. The downbeat? In 620 plate appearances, Nixon had just 20 extra base hits. That’s an awful number, your CF has to have more than 20 extra base hits in 620 appearances. What’s more, that’s 20 extra base hits in the Sally League!

The Yankees in those years were getting old in a hurry at every position, but could not abide Otis and his damnable bat. So, he was down the line and a member of the Cleveland Indians by 1984. The Indians tried everything they knew (“chop down on the ball, Otis!”) but he drove a second organization mad with his inability to do much more than walk and beat out infield singles.

In 1988, Nixon arrived in Montreal. Buck Rodgers, the manager, had a look at Nixon (a fabulous CF, he could steal bases at a 75+ percent rate, work the pitcher for a walk and any time he hit a groundball there was a great chance of an infield single) and set aside the lack of power and the endless pop-outs. Rodgers said “we’re not going to worry about what you can’t do, we’re going to have you punch run, bunt for singles, get those walks, steal second, third and home, and run down those doubles into the gap until the end of time” and Otis went ahead and did just those things.

Buck Rodgers never got a chance to manage Linus Omark, but I bet you a 2-4 he would have found a way to make use of what Omark could do well. This is the challenge of the Edmonton Oilers.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

OILERS AHL FORWARDS POINTS-PER-GAME 2010-18

  1. Mark Arcobello (2013-14) 15gp, 10-18-28 1.87
  2. Anton Lander (2013-14) 46gp, 18-34-52 1.13
  3. Linus Omark (2010-11) 28gp, 14-17-31 1.11
  4. Anton Slepyshev (2016-17) 9gp, 3-7-10 1.11
  5. Anton Lander (2014-15) 29gp, 9-22-31 1.07
  6. Linus Omark (2013-14) 29gp, 14-15-29 1.00
  7. Toni Rajala (2012-13) 46gp, 17-28-45 .978
  8. Andrew Miller (2014-15) 63gp, 27-33-60 .952
  9. Mark Arcobello (2012-13) 74gp, 22-46-68 .919
  10. Roman Horak (2013-14) 53gp, 21-27-48 .906
  11. Liam Reddox (2010-11) 37gp, 18-15-33 .892
  12. Linus Omark (2011-12) 18gp, 6-10-16 .889
  13. Mark Arcobello (2010-11) 26gp, 11-11-22 .846
  14. Ty Rattie (2017-18) 53gp, 21-22-43 .811
  15. Teemu Hartikainen (2012-13) 47gp, 14-23-37 .787
  16. Jujhar Khaira (2016-17) 27gp, 8-12-20 .741
  17. Magnus Paajarvi (2011-12) 34gp, 7-18-25 .735

I look at these names and wonder what could have been if the Oilers had a single general manager and coach during these times. Tom Renney unlocked Magnus Paajarvi in 2010, but lost him the following year, thus beginning the journeyman portion of the player’s career. Anton Lander? Todd Nelson used him in all situations and the young center flourished in that very small window.

Linus Omark? Drafted during the Kevin Lowe regime, with Kevin Prendergast the scouting director and Craig MacTavish the coach. All three men were gone by the time Omark hit the Whitemud in 2010. Once a player becomes an orphan, that’s when the heartache begins.

Photo by Rob Ferguson

HARVEST MOON 2010

In 2010, on the Sunday night after the draft had been completed, I wrote the first Harvest Moon post. My summary said “A good, good draft. Hall clearly is going to be the story of this draft, but nice value in the second round (Pitlick, Marincin) and later (Davidson) tell us the Oilers set up their draft board well. These men (scouts) are going to be under pressure to deliver more than an average number of NHLers to the show for the next several seasons and it looks like they’ve delivered this season. Report card day is around 2015 summer. See you then.”

  • #1 overall LW Taylor Hall: Immediately the best prospect in the system, the Oilers have an outstanding young player ready for the fall. If he gets enough powerplay time and especially if the Oilers can find a way to send him out with good players against the soft parade, this guy could win the Calder. BPA at this spot, good value.
  • #31 overall C Tyler Pitlick: Big, physical center with skill. The Oilers have a few of them in the pipeline now but you can never have too many of this player type. Oilers have since stated they had him among their top 30 selections.
  • #46 overall D Martin Marincin: Tall, lean 2-way defender with good speed and the ability to think on his feet. Needs to be more consistent, but that’s something we can say about pretty much every prospect taken today. ISS and speeds ranked him at 40, McKenzie at 71.
  • #48 overall LW Curtis Hamilton: A wide-bodied winger with solid skills (OK skater, good shot, has a nose for the net) he endured injury problems which cut back on scouts ability to “see him good.” He’s 6.02, 211, and Smarmy Boss has a nice description of him and his season in Hamilton’s draft post comments section. ISS60 and Bob McKenzie57, which makes him a slight reach pick.
  • #61 overall C Ryan Martindale: Tall C with speed. Tambellini says his inconsistency may come from growing into his body (6.02) and made it clear they were looking to increase size and C (and D) at this draft. Stu MacGregor likes his talent but wants him to “be there” every night.
  • #91 overall D Jeremie Blain: Had a fine season in the QMJHL and has good size for a defender. Oilers have had success in the Q, but it has been awhile. I don’t think we can call this a value pick. Tambellini says he plays with an edge, Bill Dandy really liked him a lot and this was likely a scouts pick.
  • #121 overall G Tyler Bunz: Red Line had him #178 overall but I’m fine with using a depth pick like this one. In fact, I think the Oilers should use one every year in this range. Freddie Chabot has worked with him through the Team Canada development camps and is high on him.
  • #162 overall D Brandon Davidson: ISS had him #74 and Red Line had him #204. That’s a wide range, but Remmerde (a great fricking blog, buddy was our guide today folks) is a straight forward scout and says there are some things to like. Based on his words, I’m counting this as a value pick.
  • #166 overall L Drew Czerwonka: and the chocolate factory! Sorry. There’s not much to say about a pick like this one. There are no expectations, it was probably a pick for the area scout and if he turns out holy hell that’s a great pick. The only negative is that there are still some names on the board at this time who graded out better and that’s something this organization does at certain points in the draft: select for need. Having said that, it wasn’t like Slava Trukhno shot the moon.
  • #181 overall F Kristians Pelss.
  • #202 overall L Kellen Jones: Undersized skill player who performed well for the Vernon Vipers. Has a twin brother and they’re both heading to the NCAA (Quinnipiac) this fall. His brother’s name is Connor, but I think we should call him “Chipper.” Like the Czerwonka pick above, they either “saw him good” or this is a hat tip to some regional scout or bird dog who has done good work in the past. There’s not a lot to recommend this player outside of solid numbers in a secondary league.

I have him just outside the Top 10, meaning he would be available to the Oilers at No. 10. In truth, suspect Dobson is gone by the time Edmonton picks. If the choices are Dobson, Farabee and Boqvist, my bet will be on Dobson being chosen.

Larsson was stout in yesterday’s game, strong defensively and very physical. He’ll play in the late game today, there’s a chance for most Oilers at the WHC’s to medal today. Larsson is certain to win a medal, we’re just waiting on the color.

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Jaxon

Wilde:
sliderule,

Jaxon,

Yeah, it’s the special teams work. He isn’t getring sheltered in any sense from zonestart to quality of competition

sliderule:
Jaxon,

Some junior coaches play two lines,some three and very few rotate four.

Farabee played a lot of games with USDP and if that’s were time on ice came from then I suspect as a development team they would be rolling lines.

In the u18 tournament just by eye he seemed to be on the ice a lot 5on5

Maybe my view was affected by the fact he was on the number one PK and PP.

Haha, I knew Wilde might take exception to this. You may be right, I just think that kind of red flag shouldn’t be ignored. The data I got was from his USHL numbers on prospect-stats.com. You could say the same thing about Junior coaches of all the players on the first list. And the same about the eye test of Gagner, Grabner and others on the first list during their draft season and at international tournaments.

# Name Age Pos eTOI/GP eP1/60
1 Jack Hughes 16.34 C 17.07 3.78
2 Oliver Wahlstrom 17.257 RW 16.26 3.41
3 Trevor Zegras 16.49 C 15.31 2.15
4 Jonathan Gruden 17.367 C 14.43 3.33
5 Ryder Rolston 15.874 C 13.93 2.53
6 Matthew Boldy 16.447 LW 13.61 2.59
7 Sean Farrell 15.869 LW 13.34 1.72
8 Joel Farabee 17.555 LW 13.24 4.01

Farabee was 8th on his team in 5-on-5 Time On Ice. Behind two 15-year-olds and three 16-year-olds. I wouldn’t have a lot of confidence in that. And he’s substantially behind the first line numbers of 17.07, 16.26, and 15.31.

Gagner’s scouting report: “A skilled forward with the ability to make the big plays… has very good hands and is creative with the puck… has a good wrist shot with a quick release… has high-end passing skill both forehand and backhand… sees the ice very well… reliable in the defensive end and used in critical situations… a good skater”

EDIT: Pronman’s new list came out this morning and he has Farabee at 27th! Woah. I wouldn’t put him that low. He has Merkley at #10.

maudite

Rube Foster,

I see woodguy already said it but I am going to repeat it:

Perfect post.

If you can’t figure out how to make a guy who showed some potential success on a 2nd powerplay unit
Had pretty decent goal differential, even though he did seem to excel at 5×5 scoring if given bad linemates
Had better faceoff numbers than almost any center you have in the organization
Seemed to have an uncanny knack of contributing to pretty solid PK percentages when out on it
Had an uncanny knack of drawing a lot more penalties than he seemed to take
Had leader stamped to his passport at every level he played before you drafted him

Into a fourth line center…you really need to question what you are doing.

Oh right, Lander couldn’t skate like the wind

OriginalPouzar

Pronman’s final rankings are sure interesting.

He’s got Merkley at 10 and the rising Finn at 4, among other interesting picks.

Wilde

sliderule,

Jaxon,

Yeah, it’s the special teams work. He isn’t getring sheltered in any sense from zonestart to quality of competition

sliderule

Jaxon,

Some junior coaches play two lines,some three and very few rotate four.

Farabee played a lot of games with USDP and if that’s were time on ice came from then I suspect as a development team they would be rolling lines.

In the u18 tournament just by eye he seemed to be on the ice a lot 5on5

Maybe my view was affected by the fact he was on the number one PK and PP.

innercitysmytty

Woodguy v2.0,

Agreed I’ve heard nothing but good things as well and his record speaks for itself. Connecting the dots it sure seems like the delay in announcing the assistant coaching hires may have to do with his team still playing. Hope that’s the case because I think he could be a very important addition in moving the needle with our young depth players.

digger50

godot10: Kassian is barely an NHL player.Not even close to being a first line player, and not remotely fit enough to play for 20 minutes.Heck, he only shows up for about 20 games a season.

Rattie isn’t close to being good enough defensively for the spot.

They need to get somebody like Rieder.

You miss the point……again.

digger50

Rube Foster,

Wonderfully said

Look forward to more posts

godot10

Denis Lemieux: The need for a 1RW on a line with RNH and McDavid goes something like this: big, fast, goes to the net, hits, willing to be first guy back on defense, willing to fight if liberties are taken. This could be Kassian but coach would have to work with him and shape him into the role. Current coach like to smash square pegs into round holes until they break and ignores oddly shaped toys. Too bad.

Kassian is barely an NHL player. Not even close to being a first line player, and not remotely fit enough to play for 20 minutes. Heck, he only shows up for about 20 games a season.

Rattie isn’t close to being good enough defensively for the spot.

They need to get somebody like Rieder.

Woodguy v2.0

VGK fancies for the playoffs via Natural Stat Trick.

Note: These are not score adjusted and Vegas has lead for 363 min, been tied for 277 min, and been behind 115 min, so score effect abound.

All results 5v5

Forwards CF% (all shots share)
Jonathan Marchessault 54.3
William Karlsson 53.7
Reilly Smith 53.7
Ryan Carpenter 53.2
Erik Haula 50.8
David Perron 50.8
James Neal 49.4
Cody Eakin 46.9
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 46.8
Alex Tuch 46.3
Tomas Nosek 44.3

CF% Dmen
Player CF%
Jon Merrill 54.9
Shea Theodore 52.9
Colin Miller 52.1
Deryk Engelland 50.8
Nate Schmidt 49.5
Brayden McNabb 47.5
Luca Sbisa 42.0

Forwards SCF% (scoring chance share)
Ryan Carpenter 57.5
Erik Haula 55.8
David Perron 54.8
Jonathan Marchessault 54.0
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 52.9
Reilly Smith 52.9
James Neal 52.6
William Karlsson 51.5
Cody Eakin 50.8
Alex Tuch 50.6
Tomas Nosek 50.0

Dmen SCF%
Jon Merrill 58.1
Colin Miller 58.0
Shea Theodore 56.8
Deryk Engelland 53.6
Nate Schmidt 49.1
Luca Sbisa 48.5
Brayden McNabb 48.2

Forward HDCF% (high danger shot attempts share)
Ryan Carpenter 55.4
Jonathan Marchessault 52.2
Alex Tuch 50.0
William Karlsson 49.5
Reilly Smith 48.8
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 48.2
Erik Haula 47.0
Cody Eakin 45.8
James Neal 45.4
David Perron 42.0
Tomas Nosek 39.5

Player HDCF%
Jon Merrill 60.0
Shea Theodore 54.8
Colin Miller 51.3
Deryk Engelland 50.0
Brayden McNabb 42.5
Luca Sbisa 41.5
Nate Schmidt 41.3

Now lets add a lot of goaltending and a bit of shooting.

Forward GF% (goal share)
William Karlsson 77.8
Jonathan Marchessault 75.0
Tomas Nosek 75.0
Reilly Smith 73.3
Ryan Carpenter 71.4
Alex Tuch 66.7
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 66.7
Cody Eakin 66.7
David Perron 66.7
James Neal 62.5
Erik Haula 57.1

Player GF%
Colin Miller 88.9
Luca Sbisa 77.8
Jon Merrill 66.7
Nate Schmidt 66.7
Shea Theodore 64.7
Deryk Engelland 62.5
Brayden McNabb 57.1

I find it interesting and a bit weird to see the disparity between the SCF% and HDSCF%.

They don’t have a forward below 50% in SCF% and only 3 forwards above 50% in HDSCF%

More goaltending:

SV% .955
Scoring Chance SV% .962
High Danger SV% .939

All situations SV% .941

The year BOS won The Cup Thomas put up a .940 all situations SV%.

Jaxon

For Farabee at #10 fans…

Here is what I will note re: Farabee.
He only played an estimated 13.25 TOI at 5-on-5
I’ve found 13.5 minutes as a very real line in the sand for drafting an impact player. Of players who scored very high Primary Points / 60 in their draft season, here is the list of most productive players in Canadian Junior (since 2005) and USHL (since 2016) who played less than 13.5:

Draft Year – Player – Expected 5-on-5 Primary Points at Top 6 TOI
2008 Eric O’Dell 34
2018 Joel Farabee 32***
2007 Sam Gagner 32
2006 Bobby Hughes 31
2006 Riley Holzapfel 30
2011 Marek Tvrdon 30
2013 Oliver Bjorkstrand 29
2006 John Hughes 29
2015 Zachary Senyshyn 29
2014 Andrew Mangiapane 28
2007 Stefan Legein 28
2011 Justin Thomas 28
2017 Jacob Tortora 28
2007 Dale Mitchell 28
2008 Greg Nemisz 28
2005 Devin Setoguchi 27
2015 Blake Speers 27
2006 Codey Burki 27
2017 Ivan Lodnia 26
2005 Daniel Ryder 26
2010 Austin Watson 26
2013 Max Domi 26
2005 Radek Smolenak 26
2008 Cody Hodgson 25
2005 Francis Charette 25
2006 Michael Grabner 25
2016 Logan DeNoble 25
2012 Andreas Athanasiou 25
2006 Peter Mueller 25
2010 Devante Smith-Pelly 25
2014 Jayce Hawryluk 25

Eek, that’s a long list of misfits. Even the players who have had NHL careers have struggled with inconsistency and getting benched and being in the doghouse. Players like Gagner, Setoguchi, Domi, Hodgson, Grabner, Athanasiou and Mueller are the most successful on this list and they have all struggled throughout their careers and bounced around the NHL.

Now compare that to the guys with more than 13.5 minutes:

Draft Year – Player – Expected 5-on-5 Primary Points at Top 6 TOI
2005 Sidney Crosby 48
2015 Connor McDavid 44
2018 Andrei Svechnikov 39***
2015 Mitchell Marner 37
2015 Dylan Strome 37
2014 Robby Fabbri 34
2007 Patrick Kane 32
2013 Nathan MacKinnon 30
2014 Sam Bennett 30
2014 Spencer Watson 30
2010 Taylor Hall 30
2013 Nicolas Petan 29
2016 Pierre-Luc Dubois 29
2016 Alex DeBrincat 29
2016 Cameron Morrison 29
2016 Adam Mascherin 29
2008 Steven Stamkos 29
2009 Scott Glennie 29
2018 Oliver Wahlstrom 29***
2013 Jonathan Drouin 29
2010 Tyler Seguin 29
2011 Ryan Strome 28
2006 Chris Stewart 28
2009 Evander Kane 28
2005 Bobby Ryan 28
2017 Owen Tippett 28
2010 Justin Shugg 28
2018 Jonathan Gruden 28***
2017 Nick Suzuki 27
2009 John Tavares 27
2010 Tyler Toffoli 27
2014 Nick Ritchie 26
2014 Nikolaj Ehlers 26
2008 Tyler Ennis 26
2014 Leon Draisaitl 26

A few misses, but all the hits belong to this list. So while Farabee’s 32 is impressive, his TOI/GP is why I’d be wary of drafting Farabee. Will he be the only one to have a consistently successful career out of the first list? Maybe, but I wouldn’t gamble on it. I’d gamble on Merkley before Farabee. Whalstrom and Gruden (dark horse pick) look like much better USHL bets by this metric.

Woodguy v2.0

eidy:
Just got back from the memorial cup and Hebig had a nice game.The first goal was 13 seconds in and the second as part of a4 goal 3rd period comeback.Too bad that the goalies had an off night for Regina.One Paddock misplayed on a penalty kill when the shot was fired down the ice.Misplayed it and it got caught under his foot, basically spun it back into his own net.The second was Kubick misplaying a puck wide of the net into his own net.Ugh.What did woodguy say about it being called “mostly goalies.”

I mainly went to watch Dobson and I was not disappointed.Played against the Steel/Hebig/Henry line and essentially shut them down until what was thought to be garbage time.Also playedfirst line power play and first line penalty kill.He was exceptional tonight.Wonderful skater and really maintained his gaps.He scored the first goalby joining the rush for the Titan and the empty netter, overall he had 7 shots total.Acadia is a very fast and aggressive team and came at the pats in waves of 5 (until they were up 7-2).Dobson was eager to join and never missed a chance to do so.He was the fourth man in on the rush and made crisp, effective passes.He is a big guy too at 6 3 and looks like he will be in the Adam Larsson size range.He reminded me so much of watching Petry and man do I miss him.Only thing I could see as being a negative is that he used his stick well, but could have been more physical.If he ends up being the choice at #10 I would be pretty happy with that.

Thanks for the trip report!

Woodguy v2.0

innercitysmytty:
Woodguy v2.0,

If they hire Viveiros I wonder if this helps Tmac change his old school thinking and get more out of players that don’t “earn” it?

I’d love to see them hire Viveiros.

People I know connected to the WHL keep saying he’s the best coach they’ve seen in 15 years or so

eidy

Just got back from the memorial cup and Hebig had a nice game. The first goal was 13 seconds in and the second as part of a 4 goal 3rd period comeback. Too bad that the goalies had an off night for Regina. One Paddock misplayed on a penalty kill when the shot was fired down the ice. Misplayed it and it got caught under his foot, basically spun it back into his own net. The second was Kubick misplaying a puck wide of the net into his own net. Ugh. What did woodguy say about it being called “mostly goalies.”

I mainly went to watch Dobson and I was not disappointed. Played against the Steel/Hebig/Henry line and essentially shut them down until what was thought to be garbage time. Also played first line power play and first line penalty kill. He was exceptional tonight. Wonderful skater and really maintained his gaps. He scored the first goal by joining the rush for the Titan and the empty netter, overall he had 7 shots total. Acadia is a very fast and aggressive team and came at the pats in waves of 5 (until they were up 7-2). Dobson was eager to join and never missed a chance to do so. He was the fourth man in on the rush and made crisp, effective passes. He is a big guy too at 6 3 and looks like he will be in the Adam Larsson size range. He reminded me so much of watching Petry and man do I miss him. Only thing I could see as being a negative is that he used his stick well, but could have been more physical. If he ends up being the choice at #10 I would be pretty happy with that.

OriginalPouzar

Was only able to watch the first period but nice to see Hebig end with 2 goals and an assist.

Denis Lemieux

digger50: Kassian

The need for a 1RW on a line with RNH and McDavid goes something like this: big, fast, goes to the net, hits, willing to be first guy back on defense, willing to fight if liberties are taken. This could be Kassian but coach would have to work with him and shape him into the role. Current coach like to smash square pegs into round holes until they break and ignores oddly shaped toys. Too bad.

innercitysmytty

Woodguy v2.0,

If they hire Viveiros I wonder if this helps Tmac change his old school thinking and get more out of players that don’t “earn” it?

Tesla's Hair

Lesson of Nixon reminds me of unlocking the band of castaways on Las Vegas island, Stanley Cup betting at beginning of season and this particular lyrics in the song…

“Waiting for when the last (Vegas 200-1 to win the cup) shall be first and the first (Oilers 10-1 to win the cup) shall be last” from the song…

The Ghost of Tom Joad by Bruce Springsteen

He pulls a prayer book out of his sleeping bag
Preacher lights up a butt and he takes a drag
Waiting for when the last shall be first and the first shall be last

In a cardboard box ‘neath the underpass
You got a one-way ticket to the promised land
You got a hole in your belly and a gun in your hand
Sleeping on a pillow of solid rock
Bathing in the city’s aqueduct

Well the highway is alive tonight
Where it’s headed everybody knows
I’m sitting down here in the campfire light
Waiting on the ghost of Tom Joad

Tom Joad will save the Oilers next season
Turn them from Nixon To Hero

leadfarmer

VOR,

Ok that makes sense. Blood plasma seemed redundant

Pretendergast

sliderule,

Very bad concussion to the point he was a shell of himself for the entire year. Couldn’t focus and had to be told things multiple times and got lost in the rink.

He is ‘fine’ now but very scary stuff. Hockey is a dangerous game.

Source: he is a friends brother and other friends who interned with the blades.

VOR

VOR: I believe you indicated you came from the US. In Canada many oncologists use the term blood plasma cancer interchangeably with Multiple Myeloma or as a catch all for all plasma cell abnormalities. Plasma cells are, as I am sure you know, key parts of the immune system.

Plasma cells are work horses, each cell producing one antibody. They usually perform our whole lives through and we never know they are there. But occasionally they go rogue, changing morphology, and begin dividing unpredictably.

I do know the terminology is wrong. The plasma cells in question are in the bone marrow. But oncologists find the short hand helpful. I hate the practice because I think it is poor science but patients seem to understand it better that way.

VOR

leadfarmer:
rickithebear,

Curious what you mean by blood plasma cancer.Plasma is the part of blood without cells so by definition cannot turn into cancer.Do you mean plasmacytoma and multiple myeloma?
Hope the treatment is going well.

I believe you indicated you came from the US. In Canada many oncologists use the term blood plasma cancer interchangeably with Multiple Myeloma or as a catch all for all plasma cell abnormalities. Plasma cells are, as I am sure you know, key parts of the immune system.

Plasma cells are work horses, each cell producing one antibody. They usually perform our whole lives through and we never know they are there. But occasionally they go rogue, changing morphology, and begin dividing unpredictably.

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde:
Woodguy v2.0,

Whoa, slow up on the anti earn-it method.

Are you sure you’re not an entitled millennial in spirit??

I have the spirit of a 12 year old and I want everything now.

Woodguy v2.0

Last 103 NHL playoff match ups:

56% of the time the team with the better shot metrics during the regular season wins the series.

63% of the time the team with the starting goalie who had the better all situation SV% in the regular season wins the series.

Hockey should be called “Mostly Goalie”.

We would also accept “Defending the Rickibox”

Also,

It breaks down this way:

Shot Metric Favorite with better goalie 39%
Shot Metric Favorite with worse goalie 17%
Shot Metric Underdog with better goalie 24%
Shot Metric Underdog with worse goalie 19%

That’s every playoff match up from 11/12 to today.

One day I’ll expand my data back to 07/08

Today is not that day.

Also,

Shot metric favorites did better before the last two years.

Now teams are much, much closer in terms of shot metrics and the spread just doesn’t exist between many teams than did before.

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0,

Whoa, slow up on the anti earn-it method.

Are you sure you’re not an entitled millennial in spirit??

Wilde

Corey Pronman

Verified account

@coreypronman

Draft rankings + profiles posting in the morning.

5:57 PM – 20 May 2018

Woodguy v2.0

Rube Foster:
Otis Nixon!

There aren’t many human beings that look like Otis Nixon let alone ballplayers! He was skinny as a rail and I’m trying to be kind here… a very odd looking fellow. He sure was a fun player to watch and easy to root for as are most players who find success that don’t fit conventional molds. Nixon was as LT tells us a singular talent and a wonderful baseball player when you emphasized the things he did well and stopped dwelling on the things he couldn’t deliver.

“We can’t all be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins” – Ahmen!

LT’s point is that successful organizations often find ways to capitalize on unconventional talents and occasionally those exceptional unconventional talents can move the needle in conventional ways that help you to win.

One of the confounding things about the Oiler organization is that the procurement side of the operation has a skill for finding unconventional talents and the deployment side of the Oiler operation just can not wrap their heads around how best to utilize that talent.

Most of us saw the glimpses of something special that got us excited about players like Omark, Yakupov, Schultz, MPS, or even a player like OV2.

The Oilers are guilty (as are many other organizations) of embracing certain players who fit their “organizational mold” and are guilty of hammering unconventional square pegs into organizational round holes until that very peg is no longer useful.

On top of this, and because of this organizational disconnect between procurement and deployment, the Oilers have proven to be very good at taking these unconventional talents and diminishing them to the point of being undervalued or worthless as trading chips.

We will spend the summer wringing our hands trying to find a puck moving, power play specialist D-man. I know I am not alone in believing that our most dynamic and offensive defenceman last year spent most of the season in the press box and when he played was gifted sparse minutes with the Gryba’s and Davidson’s and still performed well by eye and fancies… Ladies and Germs – Yohan Auvitu!

Yet, for some reason (sideburn?) the deployment folks just couldn’t wrap their heads around giving OV2 meaningful time on the power play or any minutes with a player like Larson who may have been the ideal complement as a partner. I’m sure there are a few old timers here who recall the Dave Manson and Norm MacIver paring, that together were a greater sum than their Individual talents. I always felt it was a huge mistake to lose MacIver to the Sens in expansion, primarily because we lost the guy that helped to lift Manson’s game to all-star levels.

Look, I’m not saying that OV2 was the second coming of Bobby Orr, but perhaps he could’ve been a Norm MacIver, which is pretty damn useful. The point is we’ll never know because the folks in charge of the Oiler deployment continue to struggle to find the optimal way to utilize the talent they have procured. I mean, it only took three seasons to try Nuge with Connor…

Permit me to beat my dead horse for a moment. The other big ticket we’re wringing our hands over this summer is finding a scoring winger for Connor and Nuge. That is a HUGE ticket and most us agree the price for a free agent to fill this role is too dear and we all fear, or should fear the cost of a Chia trade to fill this need.

If I were King for a day, I’d shift gears from the lion hunt for a first line winger and look for the best free agent we could find that is capable of playing solid third line centre – let’s call him Derek Ryan. That would free up Ryan Strome to be the right shot shooter for Nuge and Connor. Tell Strome, you’re it, we’re giving you 40 games with Nuge and Connor and let him settle in (that is after you extend him for under $3 million). I’d be willing to bet we see some chemistry and success develop amongst these three. I believe the fancies support my theory.

I’m pretty sure thats what Buck Rodgers would do… and as I recall Buck Rodgers loved sideburns!

By the way, I’m with LT, I’d bring back MPS for the right price in a heart beat. He’s a bigger, better Aberg and we need as many of those guys in our bottom six as we can get… I’d love to see a double shifted McDavid, between Aberg and Magnus, for a few shifts a game – buckle up!!

Great post!!

Agreed all points.

McLellan is an old school WHL coach and steeped in the “earn your special teams minutes” type of thinking.

You see with coaches coming from different backgrounds not give a shit about that to their benefit.

Example: John Hynes – College –> AHL for PIT “give us cheap NHLers” —> Devils.

Top 5 NJD 5v4 TOI for 17/18
Player TOI
TAYLOR HALL 212.32
WILL BUTCHER 206.45 –> Raw 1st year rookie
KYLE PALMIERI 163.88
NICO HISCHIER 162.87—> Raw 1st year rookie
JESPER BRATT 150.2—> Raw 1st year rookie

3 (!!!) Rookies leading them in 5v4 TOI.

NJD was 7th in the NHL with 7.83 5v4 Goals/60

Played the best players for the spots in order to win.

No making them “earn it” (WTF, isn’t making the NHL kinda earning it?)

Its that old school “break em down and build em back up, favour the vets and make em earn it” type thinking that holds those types of coaches from using the best players they have for specific spots where they would excel.

Woodguy v2.0

Lowetide: I encourage jackassery.

I am proof of that.

Rube Foster

Otis Nixon!

There aren’t many human beings that look like Otis Nixon let alone ballplayers! He was skinny as a rail and I’m trying to be kind here… a very odd looking fellow. He sure was a fun player to watch and easy to root for as are most players who find success that don’t fit conventional molds. Nixon was as LT tells us a singular talent and a wonderful baseball player when you emphasized the things he did well and stopped dwelling on the things he couldn’t deliver.

“We can’t all be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins” – Ahmen!

LT’s point is that successful organizations often find ways to capitalize on unconventional talents and occasionally those exceptional unconventional talents can move the needle in conventional ways that help you to win.

One of the confounding things about the Oiler organization is that the procurement side of the operation has a skill for finding unconventional talents and the deployment side of the Oiler operation just can not wrap their heads around how best to utilize that talent.

Most of us saw the glimpses of something special that got us excited about players like Omark, Yakupov, Schultz, MPS, or even a player like OV2.

The Oilers are guilty (as are many other organizations) of embracing certain players who fit their “organizational mold” and are guilty of hammering unconventional square pegs into organizational round holes until that very peg is no longer useful.

On top of this, and because of this organizational disconnect between procurement and deployment, the Oilers have proven to be very good at taking these unconventional talents and diminishing them to the point of being undervalued or worthless as trading chips.

We will spend the summer wringing our hands trying to find a puck moving, power play specialist D-man. I know I am not alone in believing that our most dynamic and offensive defenceman last year spent most of the season in the press box and when he played was gifted sparse minutes with the Gryba’s and Davidson’s and still performed well by eye and fancies… Ladies and Germs – Yohan Auvitu!

Yet, for some reason (sideburn?) the deployment folks just couldn’t wrap their heads around giving OV2 meaningful time on the power play or any minutes with a player like Larson who may have been the ideal complement as a partner. I’m sure there are a few old timers here who recall the Dave Manson and Norm MacIver paring, that together were a greater sum than their Individual talents. I always felt it was a huge mistake to lose MacIver to the Sens in expansion, primarily because we lost the guy that helped to lift Manson’s game to all-star levels.

Look, I’m not saying that OV2 was the second coming of Bobby Orr, but perhaps he could’ve been a Norm MacIver, which is pretty damn useful. The point is we’ll never know because the folks in charge of the Oiler deployment continue to struggle to find the optimal way to utilize the talent they have procured. I mean, it only took three seasons to try Nuge with Connor…

Permit me to beat my dead horse for a moment. The other big ticket we’re wringing our hands over this summer is finding a scoring winger for Connor and Nuge. That is a HUGE ticket and most us agree the price for a free agent to fill this role is too dear and we all fear, or should fear the cost of a Chia trade to fill this need.

If I were King for a day, I’d shift gears from the lion hunt for a first line winger and look for the best free agent we could find that is capable of playing solid third line centre – let’s call him Derek Ryan. That would free up Ryan Strome to be the right shot shooter for Nuge and Connor. Tell Strome, you’re it, we’re giving you 40 games with Nuge and Connor and let him settle in (that is after you extend him for under $3 million). I’d be willing to bet we see some chemistry and success develop amongst these three. I believe the fancies support my theory.

I’m pretty sure thats what Buck Rodgers would do… and as I recall Buck Rodgers loved sideburns!

By the way, I’m with LT, I’d bring back MPS for the right price in a heart beat. He’s a bigger, better Aberg and we need as many of those guys in our bottom six as we can get… I’d love to see a double shifted McDavid, between Aberg and Magnus, for a few shifts a game – buckle up!!

leadfarmer

rickithebear,

Curious what you mean by blood plasma cancer. Plasma is the part of blood without cells so by definition cannot turn into cancer. Do you mean plasmacytoma and multiple myeloma?
Hope the treatment is going well.

Woodguy v2.0

hankster:
Vegas still gets no love. Gallantdeserves more respect.Instead poster here says they’re a one line team riding a hot goalie.Granted fleury has posted great sv % but anyone watching these games would be able to see the level of execution, crisp passing, players being in theirpositions while aggressively forechecking clearly beat out a more talented jets team.
Coaching and systems wins again, not how many river pushers you have on your team.
I’m hoping for back to back cup wins for the knights to drown out some of the mcdavid and hall would win multiple cups garbage.

They were a one line team with a hot goalie in the regular season.

Now they are a two line team with a hot goalie in the post season.

Two lines and a goalie…..yeah I can see exactly why McDavid and Hall wouldn’t fit into that.

Astute observation.

OriginalPouzar

If I remember correctly, it was first diagnosed as a concussion but then they came back off that label and called in an “upper body injury” and there has never been a full diagnosis.

Its kind of odd.

Glad he was healthy this entire season. Its found money for the Oilers – it may just be a nickel but maybe, just maybe, it turns in to a $100 bill – you never know. It happens to other organizations.

Woodguy v2.0

@FriedgeHNIC

There is word tonight that MIN is preparing to name Paul Fenton its new GM. Not sure of timetable for announcement, though.

digger50

godot10: Kassian is overpaid by a larger margin…by 50-100%.He gets 7 goals a year and plays on the 4th line and is not a particularly good PK’er and he take a lot of bad penalties and has a large negative differential in penalty differential.

Percentage-wise, he is the 2nd most overpaid player on the team behind Lucic.

Your statement is a reflection on “what is”. The question was about the “why”

If you have a player surrounded and believe he has had opportunity, coaching, confidence to reach his potential, then easy to make a decision on that player.

But as we are seeing with Vegas, there seems to be many players who may only need a change of one of those elements to break out and be something more than expected.

With the lessons of Vegas – and the numbers about the bottom 6 that WG posts, it seems critical for a coach to learn his players and learn how to use them, motivate them, squeeze the best performance out of them.

Throwing guys around using the blender is not managing performance. It’s hoping for luck.

WithKassian I think a lot of performance is left on the table.

sliderule

Lowetide:
Cam Hebig just scored a really nice goal.

What was his injury in training camp that caused him to miss whole 19 year season?

Concussion?

Wilde

Lowetide: You can police the comments section by not responding. Rewarding poor behavior is always a bad idea.

I didn’t consider my behaviour to be ‘policing’, I had it filed under ‘general jackassery’.

Because I wanted to engage further, not to silence him

hunter1909

hankster: I’m hoping for back to back cup wins for the knights to drown out some of the mcdavid and hall would win multiple cups garbage.

lol

Hankster

Vegas still gets no love. Gallant deserves more respect. Instead poster here says they’re a one line team riding a hot goalie. Granted fleury has posted great sv % but anyone watching these games would be able to see the level of execution, crisp passing, players being in their positions while aggressively forechecking clearly beat out a more talented jets team.
Coaching and systems wins again, not how many river pushers you have on your team.
I’m hoping for back to back cup wins for the knights to drown out some of the mcdavid and hall would win multiple cups garbage.

Woodguy v2.0

rickithebear:
Dr. Suspect I have had the blood plasma cancer since 2013.
But last 3 years have been tooth ache pain in all my bones.
I have been a dink more than Autistic blunt for those 3 years.

I verbal tested at grade 24 in math, science and Current events as a 10year old.
I grew up loving face to face intellectual discorce with many people.
Cause I could read to grade 3 level and write to a grade 4 level till I was25.

I can go in a room and argue black if a person says white.
Go across the room and argue white if the person says black.
I have forgot part of the joy on this site the first 9 years is swimming up river versus mass opinion.

Last three years I forgot that!
Some jealous behaviour because people on here who rejected my ideas, now generate calculators based on my theoretical data column,s.

The last week has been cathartic for me as I chased down the individuals in hockey, Industrial analytics, and corporate leaders who I have had conversations with over the last 12 years.
WHL team player Personell directors, Scouts for 3 different WHL teams, Dallas stars former goalie coach, Brayden Mcnab,s mom, Dyrrl Sutter, NCAA Div 2 coaches, CEO of Naval Material Science, Atco directors, Industrial analytic experts.

I promise to swim up river and enjoy it moving on

That’s very big of you Ricki. Thank’s for that.

One of my best friends had Dysgraphia

He was a year older than me because he had been left behind in an early grade due to being “dumb”

He was far from dumb and pretty brilliant with oral language, but ask him to write it down and it looked like a 7 year old wrote it.

Luckily he was correctly diagnosed with Dysgraphia in grade10 and was allowed to take oral exams from then on. Graduated from high school with honors.

I don’t know if you have Dysgraphia, but it sounds close. I can’t imagine your frustration, but I can appreciate it.

Also,

Some jealous behaviour because people on here who rejected my ideas, now generate calculators based on my theoretical data column,s.

If this refers to GMoney and I, you need to remember 2 things:

1) G took his idea from Micheal Parkatti’s work in 2013 and credits Mike in his writings

2) You have never published your data or your methods. There is no way we could base anything on your theoretical data column.

Wilde

Lowetide: Oh. Well, yes. I think that’s going to happen for the forseeable future. ?

Nevertheless I think the call for specification is warranted, not a fan of the drive-by ‘gee, people are stupid and irrational in here’ post format.

OriginalPouzar

Cam Hebig scores a minute in to tonight’s game.

JimmyV1965

digger50:
I watch this Vegas team and wonder where they be with Tmac as the coach. To be fair you could ask that of any other coach in the league but as an Oiler supporter, where would they be with Tmac?

To be fair, I think Tmac is among the large group of meh coaches in this league. Gallant and a handful of others are exceptional. It’s amazing how many guys win the Jack Adams award, only to find themselves on the trash heap in a couple years.

Spooky Lynx

Lowetide:
Cam Hebig just scored a really nice goal.

DONT YOU DARE TALK ABOUT HIM, OP!!!!!

flyfish1168

Rondo:
OriginalPouzar,

Oilers could’ve had Aho. But

We could have had Barzal and Aho. Along with Connor. Wouldn’t that be a great draft. But PC made a big belly flop instead.

OriginalPouzar

I believe that is a valid point and confidence in your goaltender is a real thing that makes a real difference.

I believe the Oilers played differently as a team in front of the elite Talbot in 2016/17 than they did in front of the below average Talbot in 2017/18

JimmyV1965

Bag of Pucks: I agree with this and i agree strongly with your last paragraph.

The Oilers under MacLellan play afraid to make a mistake.

This VGK team plays fearless hockey, not afraid to pass through seams and uber aggressive forecheck. Wish EDM played like this. Entertaining AND effective.

If Fleury starts allowing crap goals on a regular basis that fearlessness will disappear real fast.