The lessons of Nixon

In 1979, the New York Yankees drafted a tall, thin centerfielder who was bullet fast with lumber and leather. In 1980, playing for Greensboro of the Sally League, Otis Nixon had 113 walks, 67 stolen bases and an on-base percentage of .412. He scored 124 runs, .278 BA. The downbeat? In 620 plate appearances, Nixon had just 20 extra base hits. That’s an awful number, your CF has to have more than 20 extra base hits in 620 appearances. What’s more, that’s 20 extra base hits in the Sally League!

The Yankees in those years were getting old in a hurry at every position, but could not abide Otis and his damnable bat. So, he was down the line and a member of the Cleveland Indians by 1984. The Indians tried everything they knew (“chop down on the ball, Otis!”) but he drove a second organization mad with his inability to do much more than walk and beat out infield singles.

In 1988, Nixon arrived in Montreal. Buck Rodgers, the manager, had a look at Nixon (a fabulous CF, he could steal bases at a 75+ percent rate, work the pitcher for a walk and any time he hit a groundball there was a great chance of an infield single) and set aside the lack of power and the endless pop-outs. Rodgers said “we’re not going to worry about what you can’t do, we’re going to have you punch run, bunt for singles, get those walks, steal second, third and home, and run down those doubles into the gap until the end of time” and Otis went ahead and did just those things.

Buck Rodgers never got a chance to manage Linus Omark, but I bet you a 2-4 he would have found a way to make use of what Omark could do well. This is the challenge of the Edmonton Oilers.

THE ATHLETIC!

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OILERS AHL FORWARDS POINTS-PER-GAME 2010-18

  1. Mark Arcobello (2013-14) 15gp, 10-18-28 1.87
  2. Anton Lander (2013-14) 46gp, 18-34-52 1.13
  3. Linus Omark (2010-11) 28gp, 14-17-31 1.11
  4. Anton Slepyshev (2016-17) 9gp, 3-7-10 1.11
  5. Anton Lander (2014-15) 29gp, 9-22-31 1.07
  6. Linus Omark (2013-14) 29gp, 14-15-29 1.00
  7. Toni Rajala (2012-13) 46gp, 17-28-45 .978
  8. Andrew Miller (2014-15) 63gp, 27-33-60 .952
  9. Mark Arcobello (2012-13) 74gp, 22-46-68 .919
  10. Roman Horak (2013-14) 53gp, 21-27-48 .906
  11. Liam Reddox (2010-11) 37gp, 18-15-33 .892
  12. Linus Omark (2011-12) 18gp, 6-10-16 .889
  13. Mark Arcobello (2010-11) 26gp, 11-11-22 .846
  14. Ty Rattie (2017-18) 53gp, 21-22-43 .811
  15. Teemu Hartikainen (2012-13) 47gp, 14-23-37 .787
  16. Jujhar Khaira (2016-17) 27gp, 8-12-20 .741
  17. Magnus Paajarvi (2011-12) 34gp, 7-18-25 .735

I look at these names and wonder what could have been if the Oilers had a single general manager and coach during these times. Tom Renney unlocked Magnus Paajarvi in 2010, but lost him the following year, thus beginning the journeyman portion of the player’s career. Anton Lander? Todd Nelson used him in all situations and the young center flourished in that very small window.

Linus Omark? Drafted during the Kevin Lowe regime, with Kevin Prendergast the scouting director and Craig MacTavish the coach. All three men were gone by the time Omark hit the Whitemud in 2010. Once a player becomes an orphan, that’s when the heartache begins.

Photo by Rob Ferguson

HARVEST MOON 2010

In 2010, on the Sunday night after the draft had been completed, I wrote the first Harvest Moon post. My summary said “A good, good draft. Hall clearly is going to be the story of this draft, but nice value in the second round (Pitlick, Marincin) and later (Davidson) tell us the Oilers set up their draft board well. These men (scouts) are going to be under pressure to deliver more than an average number of NHLers to the show for the next several seasons and it looks like they’ve delivered this season. Report card day is around 2015 summer. See you then.”

  • #1 overall LW Taylor Hall: Immediately the best prospect in the system, the Oilers have an outstanding young player ready for the fall. If he gets enough powerplay time and especially if the Oilers can find a way to send him out with good players against the soft parade, this guy could win the Calder. BPA at this spot, good value.
  • #31 overall C Tyler Pitlick: Big, physical center with skill. The Oilers have a few of them in the pipeline now but you can never have too many of this player type. Oilers have since stated they had him among their top 30 selections.
  • #46 overall D Martin Marincin: Tall, lean 2-way defender with good speed and the ability to think on his feet. Needs to be more consistent, but that’s something we can say about pretty much every prospect taken today. ISS and speeds ranked him at 40, McKenzie at 71.
  • #48 overall LW Curtis Hamilton: A wide-bodied winger with solid skills (OK skater, good shot, has a nose for the net) he endured injury problems which cut back on scouts ability to “see him good.” He’s 6.02, 211, and Smarmy Boss has a nice description of him and his season in Hamilton’s draft post comments section. ISS60 and Bob McKenzie57, which makes him a slight reach pick.
  • #61 overall C Ryan Martindale: Tall C with speed. Tambellini says his inconsistency may come from growing into his body (6.02) and made it clear they were looking to increase size and C (and D) at this draft. Stu MacGregor likes his talent but wants him to “be there” every night.
  • #91 overall D Jeremie Blain: Had a fine season in the QMJHL and has good size for a defender. Oilers have had success in the Q, but it has been awhile. I don’t think we can call this a value pick. Tambellini says he plays with an edge, Bill Dandy really liked him a lot and this was likely a scouts pick.
  • #121 overall G Tyler Bunz: Red Line had him #178 overall but I’m fine with using a depth pick like this one. In fact, I think the Oilers should use one every year in this range. Freddie Chabot has worked with him through the Team Canada development camps and is high on him.
  • #162 overall D Brandon Davidson: ISS had him #74 and Red Line had him #204. That’s a wide range, but Remmerde (a great fricking blog, buddy was our guide today folks) is a straight forward scout and says there are some things to like. Based on his words, I’m counting this as a value pick.
  • #166 overall L Drew Czerwonka: and the chocolate factory! Sorry. There’s not much to say about a pick like this one. There are no expectations, it was probably a pick for the area scout and if he turns out holy hell that’s a great pick. The only negative is that there are still some names on the board at this time who graded out better and that’s something this organization does at certain points in the draft: select for need. Having said that, it wasn’t like Slava Trukhno shot the moon.
  • #181 overall F Kristians Pelss.
  • #202 overall L Kellen Jones: Undersized skill player who performed well for the Vernon Vipers. Has a twin brother and they’re both heading to the NCAA (Quinnipiac) this fall. His brother’s name is Connor, but I think we should call him “Chipper.” Like the Czerwonka pick above, they either “saw him good” or this is a hat tip to some regional scout or bird dog who has done good work in the past. There’s not a lot to recommend this player outside of solid numbers in a secondary league.

I have him just outside the Top 10, meaning he would be available to the Oilers at No. 10. In truth, suspect Dobson is gone by the time Edmonton picks. If the choices are Dobson, Farabee and Boqvist, my bet will be on Dobson being chosen.

Larsson was stout in yesterday’s game, strong defensively and very physical. He’ll play in the late game today, there’s a chance for most Oilers at the WHC’s to medal today. Larsson is certain to win a medal, we’re just waiting on the color.

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167 Responses to "The lessons of Nixon"

  1. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Why don’t you do a real mock draft for the top 10 teams?

  2. Wilde says:

    Eleven draft picks?

  3. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Why don’t you do areal mock draft for the top 10 teams?

    Did it here

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/05/05/saturday-morning-confusion/

  4. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Ok, an updated one.

  5. Cassandra says:

    David Pastrnak, after a 70 pt in 75 game season, signs for 6.66 M.
    Jack Eichel, after a 57 pt in 61 game season, signs for 10 M.

    Every team in the NHL would probably take either contract and yet only one of these is a good, or value, contract.

    RFA contracts, by definition, come with a discount. They are all value contracts but they do not all provide relative value, that is value in comparison to other RFA contracts.

    I am curious why everyone thinks there is going to be a slew of contracts more than 10 M a year. There is McDavid, and then the obvious mistake/outlier of Eichel. There is only so much money to go around.

    Why would the Jets give Laine 10 +? There is no chance that happens. Six months ago they signed Ehlers for 6 M. How much better than Ehlers do you think Laine is?

  6. who says:

    If the choices are Dobson, Farabee or Boqvist I think Oiler fans will be very happy. Probably best to draft one of the righty dmen but I did like Farabee at the U18’s.

  7. Woogie63 says:

    IMO

    Tweeters, don’t become solid NHLers on teams that change their GM (and coach) on a regular bases.

    Because the season and play-offs is so long, the team with best tweeners do better.

  8. lucky says:

    LT your article makes me think of Gerrard Gallant. Sadly, I really think Todd Nelson was that man. The player whisperer.

  9. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    How many days in a row is this now?
    How much do you think Matthews and Laine sign for?

  10. Dustylegnd says:

    Cassandra,

    I will guarantee you Auston Mathews becomes the 2nd highest paid player in the NHL on his next contact

  11. commonfan29 says:

    Buck Rodgers never got a chance to manage Linus Omark, but I bet you a 2-4 he would have found a way to make use of what Omark could do well. This is the challenge of the Edmonton Oilers.

    I read this.

    I think of Yakupov.

    I get angry.

  12. jp says:

    Cassandra,

    leadfarmer,

    Dustylegnd,

    I would prefer not to talk about value contracts today. JMO

  13. godot10 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Cassandra,

    I will guarantee you Auston Mathews becomes the 2nd highest paid player in the NHL on his next contact

    You are forgetting the John Tavares bidding war this summer.

  14. pts2pndr says:

    Cassandra:
    David Pastrnak, after a 70 pt in 75 game season, signs for 6.66 M.
    Jack Eichel, after a 57 pt in 61 game season, signs for 10 M.

    Every team in the NHL would probably take either contract and yet only one of these is a good, or value, contract.

    RFA contracts, by definition, come with a discount.They are all value contracts but they do not all provide relative value, that is value in comparison to other RFA contracts.

    I am curious why everyone thinks there is going to be a slew of contracts more than 10 M a year. There is McDavid, and then the obvious mistake/outlier of Eichel.There is only so much money to go around.

    Why would the Jets give Laine 10 +?There is no chance that happens.Six months ago they signed Ehlers for 6 M.How much better than Ehlers do you think Laine is?

    I think the needle is stuck on your turntable you might want to give it a kick!

  15. godot10 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Cassandra,

    I will guarantee you Auston Mathews becomes the 2nd highest paid player in the NHL on his next contact

    Erik Karlsson’s and Drew Doughty’s extensions are also due this summer.

  16. John Chambers says:

    Otis Nixon was a thorn in that ’92 World Series. Got on base nearly every AB for a few games, and proceeded to steal bases with impunity.

    Nixon created enough offense with his legs to give the Jays’ battery fits, stealing 5 bases in the first 5 games of the series. It wasn’t until Game 6 that Jays’ catcher Pat Borders, himself hitting over .400 in the series, finally caught Nixon stealing to end the fourth inning.

    Otis would single to tie the game in the 9th inning, and again stole second base for his sixth(!) steal of the series.

    In the 11th inning Nixon was once again at the plate, down a run with runners on, trying to reach base with his feet by laying down a bunt that was fielded expertly by the Jays infielders, ending the series with jubilant Joe Carter catching the winning out at first base.

  17. geowal says:

    Woogie63,

    The best tweeners do usually do better in the NHL than the best tweeters 😉

  18. sumaclab says:

    Chia is not going to draft diddly and squat at #10. He is a GM on a gang plank with sharks circling below. His choice is draft for the next GM. Or trade this pick for a real NHL player who can play. The over under on him using the pick should be slim and none.
    If its me. Me. #10 and Oscar Klefbom to Buffalo for Ryan OReilly. I do not resign Strome. I let him walk. I try to resign to ex Oilers. Lander. He is as utilitarian a player as you ll find. TM needs a proven center who can kill penalties. This is the guy. Youd be an idiot not to resign him at 1.3 million.
    Id resign Magnus Pajarvii. Hes got speed on the forecheck. Can get you 10-15 goals. Can penalty kill.
    You line up Lander with Kassian and MP on your 4 th line.
    Nuge 97 Rattie.
    LD OReilly and JP.
    JJK Lucic and Caggiula
    OReilly has shown he can play with 97 93. If Rattie fails it costs little to bury him in Bakersfield.
    LD with OReilly and JP. 90 is center who can play wing. PP and PK.
    You cannot pay Nurse 4m. And have 5 4m plus dmen in your lineup. Its not affordable. Chia blew his mind on Russell. Terrible contract. Good dman but lordy Chia should have walked away from that deal. There are 100 other guys playing in the world who do the same thing at 1/4 of the price.
    You have enough LDmen laying around that losing OK is not that huge a loss.
    Thats me though. Chia. The guys crazier than a cat lady with a salmon tied to her.

  19. John Chambers says:

    Cassandra,

    I’m going to go for a bike ride today while you shake your fist at clouds.

  20. Cassandra says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Cassandra,

    I will guarantee you Auston Mathews becomes the 2nd highest paid player in the NHL on his next contact

    Anything can happen.

    But the value of an RFA contract for someone like Mathews is easy to calculate

    It is UFA value minus the value of draft pick compensation.

    Fill in the values as you like.

  21. meanashell11 says:

    Cassandra,

    Seriously, if this is rinse and repeat from yesterday, I am logging off now. New day, let’s discuss the topic our host has suggested.

    We have a chance to pick up MPS. Does he add anything to our bottom 6. I think if we could unload Kass and pick up MPS, the cap savings alone would make that worthwhile.

  22. John Chambers says:

    Cassandra: Anything can happen.

    But the value of an RFA contract for someone like Mathews is easy to calculate

    It is UFA value minus the value of draft pick compensation.

    Fill in the values as you like.

    Does the RFA’s value change if there’s an impending offer sheet?

    How does that fit in to your calculus?

  23. hunter1909 says:

    commonfan29:
    Buck Rodgers never got a chance to manage Linus Omark, but I bet you a 2-4 he would have found a way to make use of what Omark could do well. This is the challenge of the Edmonton Oilers.

    I read this.

    I think of Yakupov.

    I get angry.

    Coming to the terrible understanding that Kevin Lowe still wields considerable influence on the running of the team, as witnessed by the “business as usual” approach when dissing players as they’re either run out of town or are about to be.

    It’s toxic.

  24. Side says:

    Cassandra:
    David Pastrnak, after a 70 pt in 75 game season, signs for 6.66 M.
    Jack Eichel, after a 57 pt in 61 game season, signs for 10 M.

    Every team in the NHL would probably take either contract and yet only one of these is a good, or value, contract.

    RFA contracts, by definition, come with a discount.They are all value contracts but they do not all provide relative value, that is value in comparison to other RFA contracts.

    I am curious why everyone thinks there is going to be a slew of contracts more than 10 M a year. There is McDavid, and then the obvious mistake/outlier of Eichel.There is only so much money to go around.

    Why would the Jets give Laine 10 +?There is no chance that happens.Six months ago they signed Ehlers for 6 M.How much better than Ehlers do you think Laine is?

    “Dear Diary, it’s day 5 and people aren’t agreeing with me yet. Will try harder today”

  25. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Yak’s biggest problem is not coaches or lack of opportunity, it’s that he won’t do what he needs to in the NHL.

    He sees himself as Ovechkin , except he’s short, not a great skater and can’t hit the net. Add that to having zero interest in the hard unglamorous parts of the game and you get Yak.

    It was a terrible draft year.

  26. --hudson-- says:

    Once Price signed on July 2, how much of an influence would that have had on McDavid’s deal signed on July 5?

    Price is the only other player slotted to make $15M next season, same as McDavid, although his contract tails off to $7.5M in its 7th and 8th year giving a lower cap hit.

    Back to the 2010 draft, that was also the beginning of the Oil Change series. If you feel like revisiting, I enjoy the segment just after Tambo drafts Hall and Chiarelli drafts Seguin, when you see the Oilers quickly dismiss trading Eberle for the Johansen pick. Then they consider drafting Pitlick and Marincin in round 2, although it’s edited for tv, interesting to see how they achieve consensus.

    https://youtu.be/9q9uZT8gGrA?t=7m10s

  27. tileguy says:

    John Chambers:
    Otis Nixon was a thorn in that ’92 World Series. Got on base nearly every AB for a few games, and proceeded to steal bases with impunity.

    Nixon created enough offense with his legs to give the Jays’ battery fits, stealing 5 bases in the first 5 games of the series. It wasn’t until Game 6 that Jays’ catcher Pat Borders, himself hitting over .400 in the series, finally caught Nixon stealing to end the fourth inning.

    Otis would single to tie the game in the 9th inning, and again stole second base for his sixth(!) steal of the series.

    In the 11th inning Nixon was once again at the plate, down a run with runners on, trying to reach base with his feet by laying down a bunt that was fielded expertly by the Jays infielders, ending the series with jubilant Joe Carter catching the winning out at first base.

    Thanks for the walk down memory lane, don’t you drink?

  28. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Cassandra:
    David Pastrnak, after a 70 pt in 75 game season, signs for 6.66 M.
    Jack Eichel, after a 57 pt in 61 game season, signs for 10 M.

    Every team in the NHL would probably take either contract and yet only one of these is a good, or value, contract.

    RFA contracts, by definition, come with a discount.They are all value contracts but they do not all provide relative value, that is value in comparison to other RFA contracts.

    I am curious why everyone thinks there is going to be a slew of contracts more than 10 M a year. There is McDavid, and then the obvious mistake/outlier of Eichel.There is only so much money to go around.

    Why would the Jets give Laine 10 +?There is no chance that happens.Six months ago they signed Ehlers for 6 M.How much better than Ehlers do you think Laine is?

    This is the inherent problem with the NHL “salary” structure
    (it doen’t really exist). For all the savvy billionaires who run the league, you’d think they’d try to institute some form of cost certainty, like they do with their businesses. I think this ultimately serves the best interests of both player and the team. The stars would also get their endorsement money; I also think players should get a portion of jersey sales.

    You do see a bit of certainty with entry-level contracts for drafted players who sign, but after that its a bit of a free-for-all. I had always thought, even in the 80’s as a young teen, that it would make financial sense that for example, each position should be alotted a base salary which would increase based on experience and performance, but everything within a defined salary band. Then things like the pending Nurse contract being anywhere from $3.3 to $5.5 million, or threats to go to the KHL wouldn’t exist. Or value contracts, or buried contracts. You get paid based on your accomplishments like in the real world. What a concept, eh?

    Most companies have salary bands and bonus structures, yet the NHL has teams with internal budgets and/or GMs who are either great or piss-poor at contract negotiation. Why does either party wish to subject so many folks; players, players families, management teams, owners, team employees, and fanbases to so much angst? I guess player agents wield a lot of influence here?

    Doesn’t anyone know if any such thing has ever been discussed?

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

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    New Because Oilers:

    Goal scoring in the NHL is up despite the crackdown on slashing having no effect on the number of power plays per game (no shit)

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2018/05/goals-are-up-yay-but-crack-down-in.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  30. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers should hire Lou to do contracts now that he’s available

  31. Ryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Yak’s biggest problem is not coaches or lack of opportunity, it’s that he won’t do what he needs to in the NHL.

    He sees himself as Ovechkin , except he’s short, not a great skater and can’t hit the net. Add that to having zero interest in the hard unglamorous parts of the game and you get Yak.

    It was a terrible draft year.

    Winnipeg’s draft history is interesting.

    In 2012, they grabbed a top-pairing right shot blueliner 9th ov and a vezina nominated goalie at 130.

    In 2011, they went off board and grabbed Scheifele.

    I can’t find a link on the Al Gore to McKenzie’s 2011 draft ranking. Where was Scheifele?

    He’d certainly go ahead of Nuge in a 2011 redraft.

    In evaluating past drafts, we’ve always given the Oilers credit for first round selections even when they’ve had no lose propositions like Hall vs Seguin or Nurse vs Risto.

    How do you grade the Jets for making these not so obvious selections at least in the case of Scheifele?

  32. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Yak’s biggest problem is not coaches or lack of opportunity, it’s that he won’t do what he needs to in the NHL.

    He sees himself as Ovechkin , except he’s short, not a great skater and can’t hit the net. Add that to having zero interest in the hard unglamorous parts of the game and you get Yak.

    It was a terrible draft year.

    Hoooooooooooooooo boy.

    – How do you know what he thinks?

    – How do you figure he’s a bad skater?

    – How do you figure a guy who scored 49 goals as a 16 year old in the OHL and 17/48 as an 18 year old in the NHL ‘can’t hit the net’?

    – How is being 5’11” as a forward prohibitive of success in the NHL?

    – How do you distinguish between ‘interest’ and ‘ability’ vis-à-vis defensive prowess?

    The evaluative processes you just used would fit /right/ in with Oilers management.

  33. --hudson-- says:

    €√¥£€^$: This is the inherent problem with the NHL “salary” structure
    (it doen’t really exist).For all the savvy billionaires who run the league, you’d think they’d try to institute some form of cost certainty, like they do with their businesses.I think this ultimately serves the best interests of both player and the team.The stars would also get their endorsement money; I also think players should get a portion of jersey sales.

    You do see a bit of certainty with entry-level contracts for drafted players who sign, but after that its a bit of a free-for-all.I had always thought, even in the 80’s as a young teen, that it would make financial sense that for example, each position should be alotted a base salary which would increase based on experience and performance, but everything within a defined salary band.Then things like the pending Nurse contract being anywhere from $3.3 to $5.5 million, or threats to go to the KHL wouldn’t exist.Or value contracts, or buried contracts.You get paid based on your accomplishments like in the real world.What a concept, eh?

    Most companies have salary bands and bonus structures, yet the NHL has teams with internal budgets and/or GMs who are either great or piss-poor at contract negotiation.Why does either party wish to subject so many folks; players, players families, management teams, owners,team employees, and fanbases to so much angst? I guess player agents wield a lot of influence here?

    Doesn’t anyone know if any such thing has ever been discussed?

    You could say the Oilers are one of the most disruptive franchises in NHL salaries, they deserve the issues they face. After the Gretzky sale began salary inflation, the Vanek/Penner offersheets eliminated the value of the second contract, and now the McDavid deal.

    I think what you are describing would be considered collusion and would face severe penalty. I do like the idea of less uncertainty in the team you follow.

    When opportunity knocks and a competitor offers out of band pay or responsibilities, isn’t that when most people decide to jump ship?

  34. hunter1909 says:

    Funny how “Yakupov” is like a hot button with a guaranteed vocal response.

    Obviously Lowe+MacT didn’t know what to do with Yakupov.

    Sadly, they were still with the organization to start with lol

  35. digger50 says:

    sumaclab:
    Chia is not going to draft diddly and squat at #10. He is a GM on a gang plank with sharks circling below. His choice is draft for the next GM. Or trade this pick for a real NHL player who can play. The over under on him using the pick should be slim and none.
    If its me. Me. #10 and Oscar Klefbom to Buffalo for Ryan OReilly. I do not resign Strome. I let him walk. I try to resign to ex Oilers. Lander. He is as utilitarian a player as you ll find. TM needs a proven center who can kill penalties. This is the guy. Youd be an idiot not to resign him at 1.3 million.
    Id resign Magnus Pajarvii. Hes got speed on the forecheck. Can get you 10-15 goals. Can penalty kill.
    You line up Lander with Kassian and MP on your 4 th line.
    Nuge 97 Rattie.
    LD OReilly and JP.
    JJK Lucic and Caggiula
    OReilly has shown he can play with 97 93. If Rattie fails it costs little to bury him in Bakersfield.
    LD with OReilly and JP. 90 is center who can play wing. PP and PK.
    You cannot pay Nurse 4m. And have 5 4m plus dmen in your lineup. Its not affordable. Chia blew his mind on Russell. Terrible contract. Good dman but lordy Chia should have walked away from that deal. There are 100 other guys playing in the world who do the same thing at 1/4 of the price.
    You have enough LDmen laying around that losing OK is not that huge a loss.
    Thats me though. Chia. The guys crazier than a cat lady with a salmon tied to her.

    Enjoyed your post this am.

    But who would tie a salmon to a cat lady? That’s just cruel.

  36. Oilman99 says:

    Cassandra:
    David Pastrnak, after a 70 pt in 75 game season, signs for 6.66 M.
    Jack Eichel, after a 57 pt in 61 game season, signs for 10 M.

    Every team in the NHL would probably take either contract and yet only one of these is a good, or value, contract.

    RFA contracts, by definition, come with a discount.They are all value contracts but they do not all provide relative value, that is value in comparison to other RFA contracts.

    I am curious why everyone thinks there is going to be a slew of contracts more than 10 M a year. There is McDavid, and then the obvious mistake/outlier of Eichel.There is only so much money to go around.

    Why would the Jets give Laine 10 +?There is no chance that happens.Six months ago they signed Ehlers for 6 M.How much better than Ehlers do you think Laine is?

    Pure goal scorer, have you not seen the guys shot? Laine is a fifty goal scorer, there is no way he doesn’t get 10+.

  37. Oilman99 says:

    Wilde: Hoooooooooooooooo boy.

    – How do you know what he thinks?

    – How do you figure he’s a bad skater?

    – How do you figure a guy who scored 49 goals as a 16 year old in the OHL and 17/48 as an 18 year old in the NHL ‘can’t hit the net’?

    – How is being 5’11” as a forward prohibitive of success in the NHL?

    – How do you distinguish between ‘interest’ and ‘ability’ vis-à-vis defensive prowess?

    The evaluative processes you just used would fit /right/ in with Oilers management.

    The guy has no hockey sense. You can’t teach that, he relyed on his shot rather than listen to the coaches and learn what back checking is.

  38. Dustylegnd says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Yak’s biggest problem is not coaches or lack of opportunity, it’s that he won’t do what he needs to in the NHL.

    He sees himself as Ovechkin , except he’s short, not a great skater and can’t hit the net. Add that to having zero interest in the hard unglamrous parts of the game and you get Yak.

    It was a terrible draft year.

    And somehow the Oil found a way to add the 2012 4th overall to the team as well….you can’t make this stuff up

  39. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: Winnipeg’s draft history is interesting.

    In 2012, they grabbed a top-pairing right shot blueliner 9th ov and a vezina nominated goalie at 130.

    In 2011, they went off board and grabbed Scheifele.

    I can’t find a link on the Al Gore to McKenzie’s 2011 draft ranking. Where was Scheifele?

    He’d certainly go ahead of Nuge in a 2011 redraft.

    In evaluating past drafts, we’ve always given the Oilers credit for first round selections even when they’ve had no lose propositions like Hall vs Seguin or Nurse vs Risto.

    How do you grade the Jets for making these not so obvious selections at least in the case of Scheifele?

    They’ve done well. It isn’t helping them now, so what does it all mean?

    The teams that stay dominant have true elite talent. Doughty Kopitar Kane Keith Crosby Malkin. The Oilers are very lucky and have advantages the Jets don’t at this point.

  40. digger50 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Yak’s biggest problem is not coaches or lack of opportunity, it’s that he won’t do what he needs to in the NHL.

    He sees himself as Ovechkin , except he’s short, not a great skater and can’t hit the net. Add that to having zero interest in the hard unglamorous parts of the game and you get Yak.

    It was a terrible draft year.

    I don’t really agree with your assessment, but regardless the point was that some coaches and organizations have the ability to squeeze the best out of players. To find a use for the skills they do have, not focus on what they cannot do.

    Yak may or may not be an example of this. In my opinion Yak was coached like that in junior and had huge success. In NHL he has been exposed to numerous coaches and clubs, none who could unlock him.

    We could certainly use a coach with those skills right now, because we absolutely must squeeze everything possable out of what we have.

  41. Wilde says:

    Oilman99: The guy has no hockey sense. You can’t teach that, he relyed on his shot rather than listen to the coaches and learn what back checking is.

    So you put him on the 3rd line with whatever ELC winger you want to hide, and a veteran two-way centre, and give Yakupov PP1 time as Letestu, the ELC kid 2PP time, and the centre can be a PK guy.

    Then you have him at 2-3M, the two-way centre at 2-3M, and an ELC winger for a very, very cheap 3rd line that chips in ES offense and special teams minutes.

    Not every player has to be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

  42. Dustylegnd says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    The teams that receive dominant goal tending do well, Quick, Fleury/Murray, to a lesser extent Crawford……the Jets are getting out tended….not to mention there are no elite talents on Vegas other than Fleury

  43. Richard S.S. says:

    Sure a lot of twisting and trashing the narrative to fit one’s opinion going on at this site. History is documented, you don’t have to make things up. Too much “I am right and everyone else is wrong/stupid” going on.

    When Bob Nicholson was hired in late May 2014 to do a forensic audit on all aspect of the Edmonton Oilers and OEG, I came back to following the Oilers as a fan once again. I expected changes to occur over a 3-5 year period, but wasn’t sure what Daryl Katz wanted to happen. Winning the Draft Lottery, 18 April 2015, changed absolutely everything, including the speed of the “audit”.

    Bob Nichol was appointed Chairman and CEO of the Oilers Entertaiment Group on 20 April 2015. On April 23rd, Bob Nicholson hired Peter Chiarelli as President and General Manager in charge of all Hockey operations. Before this date Chiarelli had zero control over the Team, after this date he did.

  44. Dustylegnd says:

    Wilde,

    It is ok to be a 1 trick pony if you do that one trick very very well, what is Yaks trick again???…..why has he failed in St Louis and Colorado as well?

  45. leadfarmer says:

    I’m curious how long Mcdavid is the highest contract in the league and how long before it falls out of the top 5. I think theres a decent but less than 50% chance that he doesnt even have the highest contract when it starts next season although I think JT ends up just a bit short at 12 mil but a team he doesnt want to go to will offer him more.
    I think it falls out of the top 5 4 years into it which is crazy to think.
    Vegas and Seattle will help grow the salary cap. After watching Columbus almost lose their franchise a few times I’m glad that Vegas had much more favorable expansion and hope they continue with Seattle.

  46. Wilde says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Sure a lot of twisting and trashing the narrative to fit one’s opinion going on at this site.History is documented, you don’t have to make things up.Too much “I am right and everyone else is wrong/stupid” going on.

    When Bob Nicholson was hired in late May 2014 to do a forensic audit on all aspect of the Edmonton Oilers and OEG, I came back to following the Oilers as a fan once again.I expected changes to occur over a 3-5 year period, but wasn’t sure what Daryl Katz wanted to happen.Winning the Draft Lottery, 18 April 2015, changed absolutely everything, including the speed of the “audit”.

    Bob Nichol was appointed Chairman and CEO of the Oilers Entertaiment Group on 20 April 2015.On April 23rd, Bob Nicholson hired Peter Chiarelli as President and General Manager in charge of all Hockey operations.Before this date Chiarelli hvad no control over the Team, after this date he did.

    Did you just randomly type this up without even reading the comment section?

    Who is twisting and trashing the narrative?

    Who is saying things that can be distilled to “I am right and everyone else is wrong/stupid”?

    When I Ctrl+F ‘Chia’ It brings up literally one person’s post and then another person quoting it, then yours.

    When I Ctrl+F ‘Bob’ it brings up your your post and nothing else(besides LT’s ‘Bob McKenzie’ in the actual body of the post).

    When I Ctrl+F ‘Nicholson it brings up nothing but your post.

    That means you are quite literally the 2nd person in the section to say anything about Chia, and the first about Nicholson.

    So who are you talking about?

    How many people, or how much writing qualifies as ‘a lot’, in regards to ‘twisting and trashing the narrative’?

  47. €√¥£€^$ says:

    –hudson–,

    I don’t claim to know much about which team or teams impacted player salaries the most. I just know team success often seems to prevent sustained championship runs, because the best players end up making too much for too long impacting the bottom of the roster. As illustrated by Woodguy, the teams with the best bottom 6 are the best teams, but if you can’t pay them, your bottom 6 becomes fringe NHLers. Not a formula for success.

    I meant this post as referring to a league-wide salary structure. Of course it wouldn’t happen, even though it would likely give more benefits to more players. The ones it would benefit the most are those on value contracts. The players who make the most are those like the Webers, Perrys, Bobby Ryans and Seabrooks and have greater influence with the NHLPA than a Winnik, Derek Ryan or a Dzingel.

  48. Wilde says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Wilde,

    It is ok to be a 1 trick pony if you do that one trick very very well, what is Yaks trick again???…..why has he failed in St Louis and Colorado as well?

    It’s okay to be a one trick pony if you do that thing just barely well enough to be in the black, without using so much resources that it makes your teammates unable to do the same.

    It’s okay to be /anything at all/ as long as this is true.

  49. Bag of Pucks says:

    Yakupov is washing out of the league because firing the puck as hard as you can with no accuracy can work in the OHL, but not in the pros.

    Not sure how that’s the fault of his coaches?

    Million dollar talent with 10 cents worth of puck sense.

  50. Wilde says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Yakupov is washing out of the league because firing the puck as hard as you can with no accuracy can work in the OHL, but not in the pros.

    Are the nets bigger in the OHL?

  51. Richard S.S. says:

    Wilde: Did you just randomly type this up without even reading the comment section?

    Who is twisting and trashing the narrative?

    Who is saying things that can be distilled to “I am right and everyone else is wrong/stupid”?

    When I Ctrl+F ‘Chia’ It brings up literally one person’s post and then another person quoting it, then yours.

    When I Ctrl+F ‘Bob’ it brings up your your post and nothing else(besides LT’s ‘Bob McKenzie’ in the actual body of the post).

    When I Ctrl+F ‘Nicholson it brings up nothing but your post.

    That means you are quite literally the 2nd person in the section to say anything about Chia, and the first about Nicholson.

    So who are you talking about?

    How many people, or how much writingqualifies as ‘a lot’, in regards to ‘twisting and trashing the narrative’?

    How many posts has Lowetide made since Chiarelli was hired? Comments are not always post-specific, just site-specific.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:

    Bob Nicholson was appointed Chairman and CEO of the Oilers Entertaiment Group on 20 April 2015.On April 23rd, Bob Nicholson hired Peter Chiarelli as President and General Manager in charge of all Hockey operations.Before this date Chiarelli had zero control over the Team, after this date he did.

    I’m wondering if you could be more specific about this portion of your post. Thanks!

  53. Wilde says:

    Richard S.S.: How many posts has Lowetide made since Chiarelli was hired?Comments are not always post-specific, just site-specific.

    Well. then shouldn’t you easily be able to pull from the library and tell me who it is you’re talking about?

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wilde: Are the nets bigger in the OHL?

    Are OHL goalies as good as NHL goalies?

  55. commonfan29 says:

    A lot of talk about the value of McDavid’s massive deal.

    I’m not losing sleep over it myself, but was annoyed at the time that Chia’s “negotiating” just amounted to giving McDavid literally whatever he wanted – with McDavid himself apparently responsible for bringing the dollars down a touch.

    Here’s the thing though – a team with no high dollar superstars but also no glaring weaknesses has a chance to go to the Cup final today.

    It’s entirely possible the Oilers are doing it wrong.

    Of course, the whole thing would immediately flip if the NHL fixed its officiating. There really would be no way to pay McDavid too much if he played in a league where the refs called every penalty committed against him.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    Richard S.S.: How many posts has Lowetide made since Chiarelli was hired?Comments are not always post-specific, just site-specific.

    And I’ve been coming here for years and not once has the host given me an accurate tide forecast.

  57. Wilde says:

    Bag of Pucks: Are OHL goalies as good as NHL goalies?

    No, but you don’t have your 22 year old shot when you’re 16 years old either.

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wilde: No, but you don’t have your 22 year old shot when you’re 16 years old either.

    The point is you can get more mileage out of less refined skills against lesser competition.

    You have to be a legitimate sniper to score consistently in the NHL and Yakupov could never set his sights properly.

    Nail has to fire a very large volume of shots to cash.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like the core of this team and, for me, the following is the core:

    McDavid, Drai, Nurse, Larsson, Klefbom, Nugent Hopkins, Talbot

    Build around those:

    – 3 top 6 forwards (all can play C, all are young, 2 are 100% 1st liners/elite)

    – 3 top 4 D (all are young – there is not true top end guy but, if the 2RD spot if filled with a solid player, I think that top 4 will be fine)

    – Yes, I’m banking on Talbot bouncing back – I almost didn’t add him.

    Puljijarvi may add himself to this list but he’s not there yet – I think he’ll legitamize himself as a top 6 winger on Drai’s line this year.

    ———————————————–

    I would like Chiarelli to try and improve the team (now and over the next few years) without disposing of that core. The issue right now is absolutely no cap space and I’ve done a mock team that essentially shows that. I would like Chiarelli to try and dispose of the bloated contracts, the Lucic’s, the Russell’s, the Kassian’s, the Koskinen’s and keep the core.

    —————————————————-

    Nuge ($6M) / McDavid ($12.5M) / Rattie ($800K)

    Khaira ($675K) / Drai ($8.5M) / Puljijarvi ($925K)

    Lucic ($6M) / Strome ($3M) / Aberg ($650K)

    Caggulia ($1.35M) / Brodziak ($950K) / Kassian ($1.95K)

    Magnus ($950K) / Marody ($925K)

    ———————-

    Klefbom ($4.167M) / Larsson ($4.167M
    Nurse ($4M) / Russell ($4M)
    Sekera ($5.5M) / Benning (1.65M)

    Gryba ($900K)

    —————————–
    Talbot ($4.167M)
    Koskinen ($2.5M)

    ———————————
    The above lineup has two outside acquisition, 12th/13th forwards for less than $1M each.

    The cap hit for the 23 man roster (which includes Marody, Rattie) is $77.5M

    That doesn’t account for the Pouliot buyout of $1.33M which will take it to $78.8M.

    It doesn’t take in to account any of Jesse’s bonuses which are maxed at apx. $2.5M so lets give a cushion of $1.25M which essentially takes us to $80M.

    So, we are at $80M without any material acquisition.

    So, any acquisition will need cap going out. So, if we trade the 10th overall pick for lets say Hoffman, we need to dispose of additional millions of dollars to make it happen.

    ———————————————————

    Can Chiarelli somehow turn Kris Russell in to Ryan Pulock and fill that 2RD spot?

    If he can’t trade Russell, he can buy him out and his apx $1.5M cap hit (for this year) plus Pulock’s RFA contract of apx $3M should be even money.

    Question is, how do we acquire Pulock without using the 10th, Puljijarvi or Klefbom?

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    meanashell11:
    Cassandra,

    Seriously, if this is rinse and repeat from yesterday, I am logging off now. New day, let’s discuss the topic our host has suggested.

    We have a chance to pick up MPS. Does he add anything to our bottom 6. I think if we could unload Kass and pick up MPS, the cap savings alone would make that worthwhile.

    Done – I’m over that $1M cap savings. I’ve come to realize that Kassian is indeed a bloated contract on this team.

    Can we also get rid of Koskinen and acquire Montoya for a $1.5M cost savings? Sigh!

  61. digger50 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Yakupov is washing out of the league because firing the puck as hard as you can with no accuracy can work in the OHL, but not in the pros.

    Not sure how that’s the fault of his coaches?

    Million dollar talent with 10 cents worth of puck sense.

    Well we started out with generalities about the ability to utilize a players strengths and not focus on correcting weaknesses. The ability to find uses and value in borderline players.

    Then we jump to Yak.

    The analogy probably works somewhere early in his career. At this point though he’s had a lot of chances, coaches and I think we know what he is, and I agree he owns a lot of his development now.

    Another example might be Drake Caggiula. Drake started out in the “what not to do” category in order for a player to succeed. Rookie season, injured out of camp, then Drake comes in at third line center. He’s over his head.
    Since that day however, Drake has been given opportunity all over the line up. We can accurately say what he is , what he is not and reasonably predict his future value. If he was traded today there would not be many question marks around “if only” or “they should have tried …”

    I think Drake is a good example of a coach trying everything to help the player succeed.

    Now, can we say the same thing about Sleppy? That’s debatable. Kassian?
    Khaira? (I think yes) Pontus? Probably yes. Jessie P? Probably no. Debatable.
    Davidson? Landers? Pitlick?

    A lot of our lower tier players, play tentative hockey. They play not to make mistakes rather than playing to contribute. That’s just my opinion, but again some coaches and orgs seem better at working with players, building their strengths and turning a replacement player into a solid contributor.

  62. Munny says:

    Friar Tuch puts the Knights up by one. Poor clear by Hella.

  63. --hudson-- says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    –hudson–,

    I don’t claim to know much about which team or teams impacted player salaries the most.I just know team success often seems to prevent sustained championship runs, because the best players end up making too much for too long impacting the bottom of the roster.As illustrated by Woodguy, the teams with the best bottom 6 are the best teams, but if you can’t pay them, your bottom 6 becomes fringe NHLers.Not a formula for success.

    I meant this post as referring to a league-wide salary structure.Of course it wouldn’t happen, even though it would likely give more benefits to more players.The ones it would benefit the most are those on value contracts.The players who make the most are those like the Webers, Perrys, Bobby Ryans and Seabrooks and have greater influence with the NHLPA than a Winnik, Derek Ryan or a Dzingel.

    It’s definitely an interesting idea. It seems you’re mostly concerned with an upper band of salary which I am not sure is precedented anywhere. Certainly lots of examples for lower bounds.

    The only upper limits we have explicitly in the NHL CBA is the max value of 20% of the salary cap and max ELC salary. If they could add a max 10% or X% of salary cap for UFA contracts, I could see more players spending their entire career with one team.

    A change like this would pay the RFA players more but that seems the way the game is headed already. The NHLPA could push for the cap floor to be raised as a trade off.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    As far as the salary structure of the NHL, the league is changing (and, really, Chiarelli was a big part of that with the McDavid and Drai contracts).

    The “RFA contract” for the young star players is essentially gone – the young star players are no longer taking 2-3 year deals as a bridge to their big contract but signing full term big money 2nd contracts.

    It somewhat makes sense as the team is paying the big money for their prime years.

    The corresponding structure change is starting to happen but its not complete yet. This is the change where the older UFAs don’t receive the big term and big money contracts. I think we are seeing the 30-32 year old UFAs not getting the same contracts they used to but the 26-29 year old UFAs are stil getting the big term and big money (as we willl see with Tavares this summer).

  65. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Done – I’m over that $1M cap savings.I’ve come to realize that Kassian is indeed a bloated contract on this team.

    Can we also get rid of Koskinen and acquire Montoya for a $1.5M cost savings?Sigh!

    If Kassian is bloated, it’s only by a small margin.

    Kassian s statements out of camp last year when he was playing with Letestu and Khaira were all about “my line does this…”

    Since camp he didn’t see regular usage or regular line mates.

    The MacBlender – the guys absolutely hate it. It is a rediculous tactic to look like you are coaching but you are really just trying to play with luck.

    Kassian has the ability to outplay his contract. Look at him, he is the epitome of an emotional player, all the coach has to do is tap into that.

  66. Bag of Pucks says:

    digger50: Well we started out with generalities about the ability to utilize a players strengths and not focus on correcting weaknesses. The ability to find uses and value in borderline players.

    Then we jump to Yak.

    The analogy probably works somewhere early in his career. At this point though he’s had a lot of chances, coaches and I think we know what he is, and I agree he owns a lot of his development now.

    Another example might be Drake Caggiula. Drake started out in the “what not to do” category in order for a player to succeed. Rookie season, injured out of camp, then Drake comes in at third line center. He’s over his head.
    Since that day however, Drake has been given opportunity all over the line up. We can accurately say what he is , what he is not and reasonably predict his future value. If he was traded today there would not be many question marks around “if only” or “they should have tried …”

    I think Drake is a good example of a coach trying everything to help the player succeed.

    Now, can we say the same thing about Sleppy? That’s debatable. Kassian?
    Khaira? (I think yes)Pontus?Probably yes. Jessie P? Probably no. Debatable.
    Davidson? Landers? Pitlick?

    A lot of our lower tier players, play tentative hockey. They play not to make mistakes rather than playing to contribute. That’s just my opinion, but again some coaches and orgs seem better at working with players, building their strengths and turning a replacement player into a solid contributor.

    I agree with this and i agree strongly with your last paragraph.

    The Oilers under MacLellan play afraid to make a mistake.

    This VGK team plays fearless hockey, not afraid to pass through seams and uber aggressive forecheck. Wish EDM played like this. Entertaining AND effective.

  67. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    MLB’s PA was in an absolute uproar this past off-season. Veteran free agents sat and sat and sat, waiting for offers.

  68. Munny says:

    Fleury finally has to make some serious saves. Halfway through the first.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Well, yes, Kassian’s contract isn’t overly-egregious but it is an over-pay.

    I used to think he had the ability to outperform that contract but, frankly, he has failed to do so.

    He’s a fourth line energy player who is OK on the PK. He is inconsistent in that 4th line energy role – he doesn’t bring the speed and aggressiveness that makes him successful every night.

    We all think he can play up the lineup, however, when given those opportunities, he doesn’t really take advantage of them.

    I’m fine with Kassian the player and the person, however, he really isn’t more than a 4RW/PK guy and he’s over paid.

    Lets not forget his awful penalty differential this past year.

    Its not an egregious overpay but an example of an overpay.

    I’m not so sure that PRV, for under $1M of cap hit, can’t be just as valuable, if not more valuable.

  70. Rake 2.0 says:

    digger50,

    Kassian got the full Pouliot treatment from TMc last season. Neutered.

  71. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Stuart Skinner: is he the real thing?

    https://theathletic.com/360644/2018/05/20/stuart-skinner-is-he-the-real-thing/

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Stuart Skinner: is he the real thing?

    https://theathletic.com/360644/2018/05/20/stuart-skinner-is-he-the-real-thing/

    You forgot to give a *****SPAM***** warning.

    Reported.

  73. Wilde says:

    Bag of Pucks: The point is you can get more mileage out of less refined skills against lesser competition.

    You have to be a legitimate sniper to score consistently in the NHL and Yakupov could never set his sights properly.

    Nail has to fire a very large volume of shots to cash.

    Never, excluding a .35 GPG 18 year old season

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    Vincent Viola to Tom Rowe, “Tell me again how analytics proved firing Gallant was a good idea?”

  75. OiLNATION says:

    I personally agree with Lowtide that Oilers should not force themselves to get a number 1 dman and overpay. I think a healthy klefbom and sekera and the improvement of nurse is good enough for now. I think the oilers should keep thier pick and sign a few players via free agency, giving them appropriate term and money. The Oilers forward line up next season should look like:
    Nuge-Mcd-Rattie
    Lucic-Drai-Pulju
    Khaira-Strome-Vanek
    Caggiula- Derek Ryan-Kassian
    With Aberg and Pirri as depth forwards.
    A depth defender if possible would be smart to get aswell.

  76. Munny says:

    How soon is now? Morrisey with a blast off a clean face off win. Tied at ones.

  77. slopitch says:

    Fleury just might steal this series. Steal might not be the right word exactly but Jets havent been able to have a scoring explosion like they’ve been able to do all year.

    I think the lesson of Otis Nixon is a reminder that good teams are able to hide deficiencies in players and use their strengths. And sometimes it takes 2-3 teams for a player to figure it out himself. The old oilers were unable to play to the strengths of Justin Schultz or Linus Omark. The new Oilers, with 97 and Drai as 1C and 2C may be able to do this. This is probably too simplistic as the strategy should always be to best utilize a player. Its just easier when you have the puck more 🙂

  78. digger50 says:

    Rake 2.0:
    digger50,

    Kassian got the full Pouliot treatment from TMc last season. Neutered.

    I agree

    First, a player like Kassian can be a fan favourite. And a few extra bucks for filling seats and entertainment – well spent.

    On his performance, the question becomes WHY was he inconsistent, WHY if he has the ability does he not deliver? That is the key to unlocking performance. If these things are really just the player, then move them, but you better be certain the answer is not as simple as coach utilizing the player to thier potential.

    I wondered if Todd had Kassian and others dialed back. After Connor was ran, and the Nuge dumped in the other corner, it evoked no response from Kassian. Honestly I’m not sure Zack seen the play, however in the post game presser when asked if he was worried about how his team responded in that situation Todd replied “ I liked it. They responded exactly as I expect”

    So may be I blow the wording slightly, but Todd confirmed he did not want a response to hits on Connor or Nuge.

    So why does this matter?

    Because the GM purposely provided the coach with tools so that they would not get pushed around, they would gain respect back in the league. As we know, not the best direction BUT it shows the coach would not use the tools provided. So he simply doesn’t use Zack, keeps him stapled at 4RW, and probably pushes for a trade.

    He took Kassians skills, his character, his positives and marginalized them. Leaving him with an unmotivated 4RW who could do more but isn’t.

  79. Bag of Pucks says:

    slopitch,

    I see Schultz like Cogliano. Both players had to fail as upper roster players with one team before they would embrace lesser roles for smaller contracts with another.

    With Cogliano, you could argue the Oilers could’ve avoided this by developing him longer in the minors.

    With Jultz I don’t know that was possible. Allegedly the reason they got him in that free agent bidding war was they guaranteed him top 4 & 1st pp icetime. Be careful what you wish for?

  80. danny says:

    Chiarelli needs to take note of RNH with/without McDavid.
    McFlation (TM) can result in two things:
    1) a treasure chest of buy-low sell-high potential.
    2) a march through death valley of inflated contract renewals.

    There’s gold in identifying mid-level players and getting top-line production from them.
    McDavid will be creating value…
    the trick is to use it for your team and not your players’ bank accounts.

    Let’s guess that RNH gets 80 pts next season playing with McD. GM’s love shiny things.
    Do you trade him at peak value for a handsome return?
    Or do you re-sign him the following season at a top line number?

    The caveat is you have to be able to identify value players that can succeed playing with 97. If you can’t… well your franchise is doomed.

  81. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde: Hoooooooooooooooo boy.

    – How do you know what he thinks?

    – How do you figure he’s a bad skater?

    – How do you figure a guy who scored 49 goals as a 16 year old in the OHL and 17/48 as an 18 year old in the NHL ‘can’t hit the net’?

    – How is being 5’11” as a forward prohibitive of success in the NHL?

    – How do you distinguish between ‘interest’ and ‘ability’ vis-à-vis defensive prowess?

    The evaluative processes you just used would fit /right/ in with Oilers management.

    I don’t know what he thinks. I can watch him and remember his comments about being turned into a checker. He floats around waiting to be set up. He’s not good enough at the NHL level to float.

    He’s not a bad skater but also not great. He doesn’t beat players like Barzal or Ehlers. He’s not explosive. It limits him a lot IMO. It limits all players, but particularly smaller than average players because they can’t offset that by using size, for example like Draisaitl can.

    Being 5’11 isn’t in itself a problem, but remains even now 2+ inches below average for forwards. Usually smaller players are elite skaters and puck handlers. That is their advantage in play. Yak is neither, we see his success in his numbers and usage.

    It is valid to judge athletes on observed performance. Yak does not engage defensively consistently, and to me seems unwilling to work the cycle instead looking for a set up. I think it leaves the workload to the linemates. I think it gets him demoted.

    I think I understand hockey deeply and see players for what they are. I think I know what makes teams win and can see when one team is winning the battle even if with luck and goaltending they don’t always win the game.

    I validate my opinions with the stats we discuss here. I think NHL teams don’t get the best out of players because of old school attitudes and what LT said in his work today. I also think they value the wrong things largely.

    You of course are free to think I’m a tool. Many do! Anything that smells of political correctness (that inglorious group think which aims to persuade others to a narrow point of view and stifle free thought) certainly angers the blood and will get a rise from me.

  82. digger50 says:

    I watch this Vegas team and wonder where they be with Tmac as the coach. To be fair you could ask that of any other coach in the league but as an Oiler supporter, where would they be with Tmac?

  83. Jethro Tull says:

    I for one am sick of McDavid’s one trick pony show. Back to back Art Ross in in his ELC. Change the fucking record, Connor!

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    €√¥£€^$: This is the inherent problem with the NHL “salary” structure
    (it doen’t really exist).For all the savvy billionaires who run the league, you’d think they’d try to institute some form of cost certainty, like they do with their businesses.I think this ultimately serves the best interests of both player and the team.The stars would also get their endorsement money; I also think players should get a portion of jersey sales.

    You do see a bit of certainty with entry-level contracts for drafted players who sign, but after that its a bit of a free-for-all.I had always thought, even in the 80’s as a young teen, that it would make financial sense that for example, each position should be alotted a base salary which would increase based on experience and performance, but everything within a defined salary band.Then things like the pending Nurse contract being anywhere from $3.3 to $5.5 million, or threats to go to the KHL wouldn’t exist.Or value contracts, or buried contracts.You get paid based on your accomplishments like in the real world.What a concept, eh?

    Most companies have salary bands and bonus structures, yet the NHL has teams with internal budgets and/or GMs who are either great or piss-poor at contract negotiation.Why does either party wish to subject so many folks; players, players families, management teams, owners,team employees, and fanbases to so much angst? I guess player agents wield a lot of influence here?

    Doesn’t anyone know if any such thing has ever been discussed?

    I believe US anti trust laws and union involvement is the issue. Any arbitrary restriction on salary is ‘collusion ‘ unless it’s contractual as in the CBA. Players could agree to it but would never unless something major happened.

  85. Mr DeBakey says:

    OriginalPouzar: Done – I’m over that $1M cap savings. I’ve come to realize that Kassian is indeed a bloated contract on this team.
    Can we also get rid of Koskinen and acquire Montoya for a $1.5M cost savings? Sigh!

    Kassian is overpaid by about $1,000,000.
    Which is about
    – the same , or a bit less, than Koskinen and Strome
    – half of Russel’s overpay
    – or, wait for it, 20% of Lucic’s overpay

  86. Munny says:

    Sbisa shot deflects and sneaks past Hellebuyck unnoticed. 2-1. Reaves credited.

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    The teams that receive dominant goal tending do well,Quick, Fleury/Murray, to a lesser extent Crawford……the Jets are getting out tended….not to mention there are no elite talents on Vegas other than Fleury

    True, can’t win with a weak goalie consistently. The teams that repeated also had the special skaters.

  88. Munny says:

    Jets try to score on the powerplay without actually taking a shot.

  89. jake70 says:

    Yak’s days were numbered once he decided to do that “celly”. I still laugh at Belanger’s reaction chasing him up ice, if only Belanger was mic’d up.

    Edit: I think LT has that still shot just as Belanger starts to pivot up ice. Always good for a chuckle.

  90. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    He was explosive enough to outskate his teammates to centre ice for a cellly.

    No but really, hard disagree on Yakupov’s skating. He’s definitely quick, he would literally get himself in trouble overskating plays and mistiming spacing because he can accelerate very quickly and he’s kinda dumb. His scouting reports unanimously spoke of quick feet.

    So that observation, and some others strike me as strange… but I don’t think you’re a tool, or really hold any negative opinions about you in general, and didn’t mean to imply otherwise.

  91. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Yak’s biggest problem is not coaches or lack of opportunity, it’s that he won’t do what he needs to in the NHL.

    He sees himself as Ovechkin , except he’s short, not a great skater and can’t hit the net. Add that to having zero interest in the hard unglamorous parts of the game and you get Yak.

    It was a terrible draft year.

    It was only a terrible draft year for teams with poor scouts or team with owners than overruled their scouts.

    Hampus Lindholm and defensemen, many right shot, fill the first round.

    It was a year a good scout earned their money.

  92. godot10 says:

    Ryan: Winnipeg’s draft history is interesting.

    In 2012, they grabbed a top-pairing right shot blueliner 9th ov and a vezina nominated goalie at 130.

    In 2011, they went off board and grabbed Scheifele.

    I can’t find a link on the Al Gore to McKenzie’s 2011 draft ranking. Where was Scheifele?

    He’d certainly go ahead of Nuge in a 2011 redraft.

    In evaluating past drafts, we’ve always given the Oilers credit for first round selections even when they’ve had no lose propositions like Hall vs Seguin or Nurse vs Risto.

    How do you grade the Jets for making these not so obvious selections at least in the case of Scheifele?

    Hawerchuk was Scheiffle’s junior coach and went to bat for him with the Jets. The Jets also sent him back to junior for two more season. He really only found his stride at the end of his draft year, and was a late riser.

  93. godot10 says:

    digger50: If Kassian is bloated, it’s only by a small margin.

    Kassian s statements out of camp last year when he was playing with Letestu and Khaira were all about “my line does this…”

    Since camp he didn’t see regular usage or regular line mates.

    The MacBlender – the guys absolutely hate it.It is a rediculous tactic to look like you are coaching but you are really just trying to play with luck.

    Kassian has the ability to outplay his contract. Look at him, he is the epitome of an emotional player, all the coach has to do is tap into that.

    Kassian is overpaid by a larger margin…by 50-100%. He gets 7 goals a year and plays on the 4th line and is not a particularly good PK’er and he take a lot of bad penalties and has a large negative differential in penalty differential.

    Percentage-wise, he is the 2nd most overpaid player on the team behind Lucic.

  94. rickithebear says:

    Dr. Suspect I have had the blood plasma cancer since 2013.
    But last 3 years have been tooth ache pain in all my bones.
    I have been a dink more than Autistic blunt for those 3 years.

    I verbal tested at grade 24 in math, science and Current events as a 10year old.
    I grew up loving face to face intellectual discorce with many people.
    Cause I could read to grade 3 level and write to a grade 4 level till I was 25.

    I can go in a room and argue black if a person says white.
    Go across the room and argue white if the person says black.
    I have forgot part of the joy on this site the first 9 years is swimming up river versus mass opinion.

    Last three years I forgot that!
    Some jealous behaviour because people on here who rejected my ideas, now generate calculators based on my theoretical data column,s.

    The last week has been cathartic for me as I chased down the individuals in hockey, Industrial analytics, and corporate leaders who I have had conversations with over the last 12 years.
    WHL team player Personell directors, Scouts for 3 different WHL teams, Dallas stars former goalie coach, Brayden Mcnab,s mom, Dyrrl Sutter, NCAA Div 2 coaches, CEO of Naval Material Science, Atco directors, Industrial analytic experts.

    I promise to swim up river and enjoy it moving on

  95. Wilde says:

    godot10: Kassian is overpaid by a larger margin…by 50-100%.He gets 7 goals a year and plays on the 4th line and is not a particularly good PK’er and he take a lot of bad penalties and has a large negative differential in penalty differential.

    Percentage-wise, he is the 2nd most overpaid player on the team behind Lucic.

    His start with Letestu this year was utterly disastrous too, goal differential-wise.

    Got scored on by SO many other team’s 4th lines, it was absolutely brutal.

  96. godot10 says:

    digger50: I agree

    First, a player like Kassian can be a fan favourite. And a few extra bucks for filling seats and entertainment – well spent.

    On his performance, the question becomes WHY was he inconsistent, WHY if he has the ability does he not deliver? That is the key to unlocking performance. If these things are really just the player, then move them, but you better be certain the answer is not as simple as coach utilizing the player to thier potential.

    I wondered if Todd had Kassian and others dialed back. After Connor was ran, and the Nuge dumped in the other corner, it evoked no response from Kassian. Honestly I’m not sure Zack seen the play, however in the post game presser when asked if he was worried about how his team responded in that situation Todd replied “ I liked it. They responded exactly as I expect”

    So may be I blow the wording slightly, but Todd confirmed he did not want a response to hits on Connor or Nuge.

    So why does this matter?

    Because the GM purposely provided the coach with tools so that they would not get pushed around, they would gain respect back in the league. As we know, not the best direction BUT it shows the coach would not use the tools provided. So he simply doesn’t use Zack, keeps him stapled at 4RW, and probably pushes for a trade.

    He took Kassians skills, his character, his positives and marginalized them. Leaving him with an unmotivated 4RW who could do morebut isn’t.

    Kassian has been inconsistant everywhere he has been. It is the only consistant thing about him. He only comes to play a few times a year. And takes bad penalties and is a petulant child most of the rest of the year.

  97. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    He was explosive enough to outskate his teammates to centre ice for a cellly.

    No but really, hard disagree on Yakupov’s skating. He’s definitely quick, he would literally get himself in trouble overskating plays and mistiming spacing because he can accelerate very quickly. His scouting reports unanimously spoke of quick feet.

    So that observation, and some others strike me as strange… but I don’t think you’re a tool, or really hold any negative opinions about you in general, and didn’t mean to imply otherwise.

    No worries, my dry sense of humour.

    Yak can skate well enough, what I don’t see is explosiveness or the ability to dangle. It seriously limits his game.

    To me players that can’t rely on physicality have to be exceptional skaters to be impact players to allow their skill to get used.

    As was said if you’re a one trick pony that trick has to be special. There aren’t many smaller than typical average quality players in the league. Most teams seem to prefer a bigger player so that if they aren’t a significant threat to score at least they can add the physical element.

    Other than the Oilers who have Cags not doing much helpful. Cags is pretty quick. Too bad about the can’t score or defend thing.

  98. godot10 says:

    danny:
    Chiarelli needs to take note of RNH with/without McDavid.
    McFlation (TM) can result in two things:
    1) a treasure chest of buy-low sell-high potential.
    2) a march through death valley of inflated contract renewals.

    There’s gold in identifying mid-level players and getting top-line production from them.
    McDavid will be creating value…
    the trick is to use it for your team and not your players’ bank accounts.

    Let’s guess that RNH gets 80 pts next season playing with McD. GM’s love shiny things.
    Do you trade him at peak value for a handsome return?
    Or do you re-sign him the following season at a top line number?

    The caveat is you have to be able to identify value players that can succeed playing with 97. If you can’t… well your franchise is doomed.

    Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t have to be signed for three more years. He should have been tried with McDavid before Draisaitl. The Oilers wouldn’t have been in contract hell if the coach had any sense for matching players and constructing lines.

  99. Munny says:

    The Knights continue their Impossible Journey to the Stanley Cup.

  100. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: It was only a terrible draft year for teams with poor scouts or team with owners than overruled their scouts.

    Hampus Lindholm and defensemen, many right shot, fill the first round.

    It was a year a good scout earned their money.

    True

  101. --hudson-- says:

    MA Fleury knows a thing or two about winning, if that’s a concern.

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    The Knights continue their Impossible Journey to the Stanley Cup.

    Goaltending and balance goes a long way. It should give us hope because it means s few decent players can put the Oilers over. They just need to stop employing guys that can’t do anything.

    Replacement level players should be replaced as necessary.

  103. rickithebear says:

    Thier are realistic measures for a player based on unit play.

    Even play can be broken down to binary mechanics of zone to zone play.

    Combinations of binary mechanics can identify Goal diff affects of positional players in even play.

    PP and PK is advantage/disadvantage play. The measure is both unit measure and relative WOWY measure. Many are paid high salaries for minimal WOWY rel GF affect. Others are paid much
    Less for superior WOWY rel GA affect.

    Kassian s PK GA affectbis a steal.

  104. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide,

    Occasionally I read Peter Chiarelli getting blamed for things he had no control over. Is this intentional or is it oops or is it an oversight? I’m trying to clarify what is accountable and what is wish fulfillment.

  105. Biggus Dickus says:

    Good for Vegas. I think they are going to change the game like the Oakland A’s did.

  106. Richard S.S. says:

    How does Peter Chiarelli get blamed for Marincin, Davidson and Yakupov? There are who they are – not consistent and not very good. The previous regime had many years to develop or not develop these players

  107. Alpine says:

    Nice story with Vegas but I’ll be very bummed tomorrow if the Caps go out tomorrow while McPhee gets there with another team. Not that he doesn’t deserve to be there with the Knights, but after he torpedoed part of Ovechkin’s prime with bad coaching hires and THAT trade, it hurts.

  108. Munny says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Where do you see LT blaming Chia? Does Chia’s name show up even once in LT’s article?

    I think you’re seeing something that isn’t there.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    World Championship All-Star Team Named:

    Adam Larsson
    OEL
    Patick Kane
    Sebastian Aho
    Richard Rakell

    Larsson had a tremendous tournament – he and OEL were a fantastic pairing and anchored that team to the gold medal run. We are blessed to have this bitch to play against player on our team and about to enter his prime.

  110. Munny says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Goaltending and balance goes a long way. It should give us hope because it means s few decent players can put the Oilers over. They just need to stop employing guys that can’t do anything.

    Replacement level players should be replaced as necessary.

    A few decent seasons could put the Oil over. And agreed, especially Talbot’s season.

  111. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Lowetide,

    Occasionally I read Peter Chiarelli getting blamed for things he had no control over.Is this intentional or is it oops or is it an oversight?I’m trying to clarify what is accountable and what is wish fulfillment.

    You’ll have to give me a specific example of something I’ve stated in order for me to give you a read on it. You may be reading things that aren’t there, but I’ve also been (correctly) hard on the general manager.

  112. rickithebear says:

    –hudson–:
    MA Fleury knows a thing or two about winning, if that’s a concern.

    .908 save % in 2009 cup win.
    The only cup winner in 25 years to win with inferior HD d and no dramatic event.
    Dallas illegal goal
    Tampa no goal 2004
    Rolloson injury 2006
    Pittsburgh outscored Detroit’s Defence.

    09 to 16 – 8 seasons
    5 playoff seasons of sub .900
    2 seasons of below avg .916
    14-15 .927 lost in 5 games.

    VGK noticed he changed his scatter movement that yielded brutal playoff results to table hockey movement from watching elite HD goalie Murray.

    16-17 .924 in 15 games for Pit
    17-18 .945 in front of the deepest HD dman team and equal to the great def units of 90,s NJD.

  113. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: You’ll have to give me a specific example of something I’ve stated in order for me to give you a read on it. You may be reading things that aren’t there, but I’ve also been (correctly) hard on the general manager.

    Believe he’s speaking of commenters and not the host.

  114. jake70 says:

    My dream final while Bettman is still commish, outside of Edmonton in it, is a Winnipeg-Ottawa final, just to have that satisfaction of the execs at NBC and Bettman himself doing some squirming.

    I decided then to do the PP count in this series because… ..(think the math is correct)

    Vegas got 11 PPs……went 2/11
    Winn got 17 PPs……went 4/17

    So I went back and looked at all Vegas’ series.

    -Vegas goes 6/28 vs. Sharks
    -Sharks go 5/27

    -Vegas goes 1/12 vs/ Kings
    -Kings go 1/13

    Totals through 3 rounds:
    -Vegas goes 9/51 (17.6%)
    -Opposition goes 10/57 (17.5%)

    So definitely no PP favouritism. Vegas got 6 less PPs. Just playing out of their minds, including their goalie.

  115. Lowetide says:

    Wilde: Believe he’s speaking of commenters and not the host.

    Oh. Well, yes. I think that’s going to happen for the forseeable future. 🙂

  116. hunter1909 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    How does Peter Chiarelli get blamed for Marincin, Davidson and Yakupov?There are who they are – not consistent and not very good.The previous regime had many years to develop or not develop these players

    What previous regime?

    Kevin Lowe still advises the Oilers, despite rumors to the contrary.

    Meanwhile MacT has shamelessly grovelled himself another top level official position on the current team.

    In case you’re require proof, look no further than the way Oilers still find themselves the subject of whispering campaigns prior to being traded – this reflects Kevin Lowe’s later life bitterness.

    Or the dumber than dumber way the team pisses away assets, sets up fall guys(Chiarelli+McLellan are the current occupants in this intrigue), and generally behaves like all management wants is another year in the job.

  117. Rondo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Oilers could’ve had Aho. But

  118. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I agree with this and i agree strongly with your last paragraph.

    The Oilers under MacLellan play afraid to make a mistake.

    This VGK team plays fearless hockey, not afraid to pass through seams and uber aggressive forecheck. Wish EDM played like this. Entertaining AND effective.

    If Fleury starts allowing crap goals on a regular basis that fearlessness will disappear real fast.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    I believe that is a valid point and confidence in your goaltender is a real thing that makes a real difference.

    I believe the Oilers played differently as a team in front of the elite Talbot in 2016/17 than they did in front of the below average Talbot in 2017/18

  120. flyfish1168 says:

    Rondo:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Oilers could’ve had Aho. But

    We could have had Barzal and Aho. Along with Connor. Wouldn’t that be a great draft. But PC made a big belly flop instead.

  121. Lowetide says:

    Cam Hebig just scored a really nice goal.

  122. Spooky Lynx says:

    Lowetide:
    Cam Hebig just scored a really nice goal.

    DONT YOU DARE TALK ABOUT HIM, OP!!!!!

  123. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50:
    I watch this Vegas team and wonder where they be with Tmac as the coach. To be fair you could ask that of any other coach in the league but as an Oiler supporter, where would they be with Tmac?

    To be fair, I think Tmac is among the large group of meh coaches in this league. Gallant and a handful of others are exceptional. It’s amazing how many guys win the Jack Adams award, only to find themselves on the trash heap in a couple years.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cam Hebig scores a minute in to tonight’s game.

  125. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: Oh. Well, yes. I think that’s going to happen for the forseeable future. 🙂

    Nevertheless I think the call for specification is warranted, not a fan of the drive-by ‘gee, people are stupid and irrational in here’ post format.

  126. Lowetide says:

    Wilde: Nevertheless I think the call for specification is warranted, not a fan of the drive-by ‘gee, people are stupid and irrational in here’ post format.

    You can police the comments section by not responding. Rewarding poor behavior is always a bad idea.

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear:
    Dr. Suspect I have had the blood plasma cancer since 2013.
    But last 3 years have been tooth ache pain in all my bones.
    I have been a dink more than Autistic blunt for those 3 years.

    I verbal tested at grade 24 in math, science and Current events as a 10year old.
    I grew up loving face to face intellectual discorce with many people.
    Cause I could read to grade 3 level and write to a grade 4 level till I was25.

    I can go in a room and argue black if a person says white.
    Go across the room and argue white if the person says black.
    I have forgot part of the joy on this site the first 9 years is swimming up river versus mass opinion.

    Last three years I forgot that!
    Some jealous behaviour because people on here who rejected my ideas, now generate calculators based on my theoretical data column,s.

    The last week has been cathartic for me as I chased down the individuals in hockey, Industrial analytics, and corporate leaders who I have had conversations with over the last 12 years.
    WHL team player Personell directors, Scouts for 3 different WHL teams, Dallas stars former goalie coach, Brayden Mcnab,s mom, Dyrrl Sutter, NCAA Div 2 coaches, CEO of Naval Material Science, Atco directors, Industrial analytic experts.

    I promise to swim up river and enjoy it moving on

    That’s very big of you Ricki. Thank’s for that.

    One of my best friends had Dysgraphia

    He was a year older than me because he had been left behind in an early grade due to being “dumb”

    He was far from dumb and pretty brilliant with oral language, but ask him to write it down and it looked like a 7 year old wrote it.

    Luckily he was correctly diagnosed with Dysgraphia in grade10 and was allowed to take oral exams from then on. Graduated from high school with honors.

    I don’t know if you have Dysgraphia, but it sounds close. I can’t imagine your frustration, but I can appreciate it.

    Also,

    Some jealous behaviour because people on here who rejected my ideas, now generate calculators based on my theoretical data column,s.

    If this refers to GMoney and I, you need to remember 2 things:

    1) G took his idea from Micheal Parkatti’s work in 2013 and credits Mike in his writings

    2) You have never published your data or your methods. There is no way we could base anything on your theoretical data column.

  128. hankster says:

    Vegas still gets no love. Gallant deserves more respect. Instead poster here says they’re a one line team riding a hot goalie. Granted fleury has posted great sv % but anyone watching these games would be able to see the level of execution, crisp passing, players being in their positions while aggressively forechecking clearly beat out a more talented jets team.
    Coaching and systems wins again, not how many river pushers you have on your team.
    I’m hoping for back to back cup wins for the knights to drown out some of the mcdavid and hall would win multiple cups garbage.

  129. hunter1909 says:

    hankster: I’m hoping for back to back cup wins for the knights to drown out some of the mcdavid and hall would win multiple cups garbage.

    lol

  130. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: You can police the comments section by not responding. Rewarding poor behavior is always a bad idea.

    I didn’t consider my behaviour to be ‘policing’, I had it filed under ‘general jackassery’.

    Because I wanted to engage further, not to silence him

  131. sliderule says:

    Lowetide:
    Cam Hebig just scored a really nice goal.

    What was his injury in training camp that caused him to miss whole 19 year season?

    Concussion?

  132. digger50 says:

    godot10: Kassian is overpaid by a larger margin…by 50-100%.He gets 7 goals a year and plays on the 4th line and is not a particularly good PK’er and he take a lot of bad penalties and has a large negative differential in penalty differential.

    Percentage-wise, he is the 2nd most overpaid player on the team behind Lucic.

    Your statement is a reflection on “what is”. The question was about the “why”

    If you have a player surrounded and believe he has had opportunity, coaching, confidence to reach his potential, then easy to make a decision on that player.

    But as we are seeing with Vegas, there seems to be many players who may only need a change of one of those elements to break out and be something more than expected.

    With the lessons of Vegas – and the numbers about the bottom 6 that WG posts, it seems critical for a coach to learn his players and learn how to use them, motivate them, squeeze the best performance out of them.

    Throwing guys around using the blender is not managing performance. It’s hoping for luck.

    WithKassian I think a lot of performance is left on the table.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    @FriedgeHNIC

    There is word tonight that MIN is preparing to name Paul Fenton its new GM. Not sure of timetable for announcement, though.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    If I remember correctly, it was first diagnosed as a concussion but then they came back off that label and called in an “upper body injury” and there has never been a full diagnosis.

    Its kind of odd.

    Glad he was healthy this entire season. Its found money for the Oilers – it may just be a nickel but maybe, just maybe, it turns in to a $100 bill – you never know. It happens to other organizations.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hankster:
    Vegas still gets no love. Gallantdeserves more respect.Instead poster here says they’re a one line team riding a hot goalie.Granted fleury has posted great sv % but anyone watching these games would be able to see the level of execution, crisp passing, players being in theirpositions while aggressively forechecking clearly beat out a more talented jets team.
    Coaching and systems wins again, not how many river pushers you have on your team.
    I’m hoping for back to back cup wins for the knights to drown out some of the mcdavid and hall would win multiple cups garbage.

    They were a one line team with a hot goalie in the regular season.

    Now they are a two line team with a hot goalie in the post season.

    Two lines and a goalie…..yeah I can see exactly why McDavid and Hall wouldn’t fit into that.

    Astute observation.

  136. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Curious what you mean by blood plasma cancer. Plasma is the part of blood without cells so by definition cannot turn into cancer. Do you mean plasmacytoma and multiple myeloma?
    Hope the treatment is going well.

  137. Rube Foster says:

    Otis Nixon!

    There aren’t many human beings that look like Otis Nixon let alone ballplayers! He was skinny as a rail and I’m trying to be kind here… a very odd looking fellow. He sure was a fun player to watch and easy to root for as are most players who find success that don’t fit conventional molds. Nixon was as LT tells us a singular talent and a wonderful baseball player when you emphasized the things he did well and stopped dwelling on the things he couldn’t deliver.

    “We can’t all be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins” – Ahmen!

    LT’s point is that successful organizations often find ways to capitalize on unconventional talents and occasionally those exceptional unconventional talents can move the needle in conventional ways that help you to win.

    One of the confounding things about the Oiler organization is that the procurement side of the operation has a skill for finding unconventional talents and the deployment side of the Oiler operation just can not wrap their heads around how best to utilize that talent.

    Most of us saw the glimpses of something special that got us excited about players like Omark, Yakupov, Schultz, MPS, or even a player like OV2.

    The Oilers are guilty (as are many other organizations) of embracing certain players who fit their “organizational mold” and are guilty of hammering unconventional square pegs into organizational round holes until that very peg is no longer useful.

    On top of this, and because of this organizational disconnect between procurement and deployment, the Oilers have proven to be very good at taking these unconventional talents and diminishing them to the point of being undervalued or worthless as trading chips.

    We will spend the summer wringing our hands trying to find a puck moving, power play specialist D-man. I know I am not alone in believing that our most dynamic and offensive defenceman last year spent most of the season in the press box and when he played was gifted sparse minutes with the Gryba’s and Davidson’s and still performed well by eye and fancies… Ladies and Germs – Yohan Auvitu!

    Yet, for some reason (sideburn?) the deployment folks just couldn’t wrap their heads around giving OV2 meaningful time on the power play or any minutes with a player like Larson who may have been the ideal complement as a partner. I’m sure there are a few old timers here who recall the Dave Manson and Norm MacIver paring, that together were a greater sum than their Individual talents. I always felt it was a huge mistake to lose MacIver to the Sens in expansion, primarily because we lost the guy that helped to lift Manson’s game to all-star levels.

    Look, I’m not saying that OV2 was the second coming of Bobby Orr, but perhaps he could’ve been a Norm MacIver, which is pretty damn useful. The point is we’ll never know because the folks in charge of the Oiler deployment continue to struggle to find the optimal way to utilize the talent they have procured. I mean, it only took three seasons to try Nuge with Connor…

    Permit me to beat my dead horse for a moment. The other big ticket we’re wringing our hands over this summer is finding a scoring winger for Connor and Nuge. That is a HUGE ticket and most us agree the price for a free agent to fill this role is too dear and we all fear, or should fear the cost of a Chia trade to fill this need.

    If I were King for a day, I’d shift gears from the lion hunt for a first line winger and look for the best free agent we could find that is capable of playing solid third line centre – let’s call him Derek Ryan. That would free up Ryan Strome to be the right shot shooter for Nuge and Connor. Tell Strome, you’re it, we’re giving you 40 games with Nuge and Connor and let him settle in (that is after you extend him for under $3 million). I’d be willing to bet we see some chemistry and success develop amongst these three. I believe the fancies support my theory.

    I’m pretty sure thats what Buck Rodgers would do… and as I recall Buck Rodgers loved sideburns!

    By the way, I’m with LT, I’d bring back MPS for the right price in a heart beat. He’s a bigger, better Aberg and we need as many of those guys in our bottom six as we can get… I’d love to see a double shifted McDavid, between Aberg and Magnus, for a few shifts a game – buckle up!!

  138. Lowetide says:

    Wilde: I didn’t consider my behaviour to be ‘policing’, I had it filed under ‘general jackassery’.

    Because I wanted to engage further, not to silence him

    I encourage jackassery.

  139. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: I encourage jackassery.

    I am proof of that.

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rube Foster:
    Otis Nixon!

    There aren’t many human beings that look like Otis Nixon let alone ballplayers! He was skinny as a rail and I’m trying to be kind here… a very odd looking fellow. He sure was a fun player to watch and easy to root for as are most players who find success that don’t fit conventional molds. Nixon was as LT tells us a singular talent and a wonderful baseball player when you emphasized the things he did well and stopped dwelling on the things he couldn’t deliver.

    “We can’t all be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins” – Ahmen!

    LT’s point is that successful organizations often find ways to capitalize on unconventional talents and occasionally those exceptional unconventional talents can move the needle in conventional ways that help you to win.

    One of the confounding things about the Oiler organization is that the procurement side of the operation has a skill for finding unconventional talents and the deployment side of the Oiler operation just can not wrap their heads around how best to utilize that talent.

    Most of us saw the glimpses of something special that got us excited about players like Omark, Yakupov, Schultz, MPS, or even a player like OV2.

    The Oilers are guilty (as are many other organizations) of embracing certain players who fit their “organizational mold” and are guilty of hammering unconventional square pegs into organizational round holes until that very peg is no longer useful.

    On top of this, and because of this organizational disconnect between procurement and deployment, the Oilers have proven to be very good at taking these unconventional talents and diminishing them to the point of being undervalued or worthless as trading chips.

    We will spend the summer wringing our hands trying to find a puck moving, power play specialist D-man. I know I am not alone in believing that our most dynamic and offensive defenceman last year spent most of the season in the press box and when he played was gifted sparse minutes with the Gryba’s and Davidson’s and still performed well by eye and fancies… Ladies and Germs – Yohan Auvitu!

    Yet, for some reason (sideburn?) the deployment folks just couldn’t wrap their heads around giving OV2 meaningful time on the power play or any minutes with a player like Larson who may have been the ideal complement as a partner. I’m sure there are a few old timers here who recall the Dave Manson and Norm MacIver paring, that together were a greater sum than their Individual talents. I always felt it was a huge mistake to lose MacIver to the Sens in expansion, primarily because we lost the guy that helped to lift Manson’s game to all-star levels.

    Look, I’m not saying that OV2 was the second coming of Bobby Orr, but perhaps he could’ve been a Norm MacIver, which is pretty damn useful. The point is we’ll never know because the folks in charge of the Oiler deployment continue to struggle to find the optimal way to utilize the talent they have procured. I mean, it only took three seasons to try Nuge with Connor…

    Permit me to beat my dead horse for a moment. The other big ticket we’re wringing our hands over this summer is finding a scoring winger for Connor and Nuge. That is a HUGE ticket and most us agree the price for a free agent to fill this role is too dear and we all fear, or should fear the cost of a Chia trade to fill this need.

    If I were King for a day, I’d shift gears from the lion hunt for a first line winger and look for the best free agent we could find that is capable of playing solid third line centre – let’s call him Derek Ryan. That would free up Ryan Strome to be the right shot shooter for Nuge and Connor. Tell Strome, you’re it, we’re giving you 40 games with Nuge and Connor and let him settle in (that is after you extend him for under $3 million). I’d be willing to bet we see some chemistry and success develop amongst these three. I believe the fancies support my theory.

    I’m pretty sure thats what Buck Rodgers would do… and as I recall Buck Rodgers loved sideburns!

    By the way, I’m with LT, I’d bring back MPS for the right price in a heart beat. He’s a bigger, better Aberg and we need as many of those guys in our bottom six as we can get… I’d love to see a double shifted McDavid, between Aberg and Magnus, for a few shifts a game – buckle up!!

    Great post!!

    Agreed all points.

    McLellan is an old school WHL coach and steeped in the “earn your special teams minutes” type of thinking.

    You see with coaches coming from different backgrounds not give a shit about that to their benefit.

    Example: John Hynes – College –> AHL for PIT “give us cheap NHLers” —> Devils.

    Top 5 NJD 5v4 TOI for 17/18
    Player TOI
    TAYLOR HALL 212.32
    WILL BUTCHER 206.45 –> Raw 1st year rookie
    KYLE PALMIERI 163.88
    NICO HISCHIER 162.87—> Raw 1st year rookie
    JESPER BRATT 150.2—> Raw 1st year rookie

    3 (!!!) Rookies leading them in 5v4 TOI.

    NJD was 7th in the NHL with 7.83 5v4 Goals/60

    Played the best players for the spots in order to win.

    No making them “earn it” (WTF, isn’t making the NHL kinda earning it?)

    Its that old school “break em down and build em back up, favour the vets and make em earn it” type thinking that holds those types of coaches from using the best players they have for specific spots where they would excel.

  141. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I am proof of that.

    Truer words…..

  142. Wilde says:

    Corey Pronman

    Verified account

    @coreypronman

    Draft rankings + profiles posting in the morning.

    5:57 PM – 20 May 2018

  143. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Whoa, slow up on the anti earn-it method.

    Are you sure you’re not an entitled millennial in spirit??

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Last 103 NHL playoff match ups:

    56% of the time the team with the better shot metrics during the regular season wins the series.

    63% of the time the team with the starting goalie who had the better all situation SV% in the regular season wins the series.

    Hockey should be called “Mostly Goalie”.

    We would also accept “Defending the Rickibox”

    Also,

    It breaks down this way:

    Shot Metric Favorite with better goalie 39%
    Shot Metric Favorite with worse goalie 17%
    Shot Metric Underdog with better goalie 24%
    Shot Metric Underdog with worse goalie 19%

    That’s every playoff match up from 11/12 to today.

    One day I’ll expand my data back to 07/08

    Today is not that day.

    Also,

    Shot metric favorites did better before the last two years.

    Now teams are much, much closer in terms of shot metrics and the spread just doesn’t exist between many teams than did before.

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Whoa, slow up on the anti earn-it method.

    Are you sure you’re not an entitled millennial in spirit??

    I have the spirit of a 12 year old and I want everything now.

  146. VOR says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    Curious what you mean by blood plasma cancer.Plasma is the part of blood without cells so by definition cannot turn into cancer.Do you mean plasmacytoma and multiple myeloma?
    Hope the treatment is going well.

    I believe you indicated you came from the US. In Canada many oncologists use the term blood plasma cancer interchangeably with Multiple Myeloma or as a catch all for all plasma cell abnormalities. Plasma cells are, as I am sure you know, key parts of the immune system.

    Plasma cells are work horses, each cell producing one antibody. They usually perform our whole lives through and we never know they are there. But occasionally they go rogue, changing morphology, and begin dividing unpredictably.

  147. VOR says:

    VOR: I believe you indicated you came from the US. In Canada many oncologists use the term blood plasma cancer interchangeably with Multiple Myeloma or as a catch all for all plasma cell abnormalities. Plasma cells are, as I am sure you know, key parts of the immune system.

    Plasma cells are work horses, each cell producing one antibody. They usually perform our whole lives through and we never know they are there. But occasionally they go rogue, changing morphology, and begin dividing unpredictably.

    I do know the terminology is wrong. The plasma cells in question are in the bone marrow. But oncologists find the short hand helpful. I hate the practice because I think it is poor science but patients seem to understand it better that way.

  148. Pretendergast says:

    sliderule,

    Very bad concussion to the point he was a shell of himself for the entire year. Couldn’t focus and had to be told things multiple times and got lost in the rink.

    He is ‘fine’ now but very scary stuff. Hockey is a dangerous game.

    Source: he is a friends brother and other friends who interned with the blades.

  149. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    Ok that makes sense. Blood plasma seemed redundant

  150. deardylan says:

    Lesson of Nixon reminds me of unlocking the band of castaways on Las Vegas island, Stanley Cup betting at beginning of season and this particular lyrics in the song…

    “Waiting for when the last (Vegas 200-1 to win the cup) shall be first and the first (Oilers 10-1 to win the cup) shall be last” from the song…

    The Ghost of Tom Joad by Bruce Springsteen

    He pulls a prayer book out of his sleeping bag
    Preacher lights up a butt and he takes a drag
    Waiting for when the last shall be first and the first shall be last

    In a cardboard box ‘neath the underpass
    You got a one-way ticket to the promised land
    You got a hole in your belly and a gun in your hand
    Sleeping on a pillow of solid rock
    Bathing in the city’s aqueduct

    Well the highway is alive tonight
    Where it’s headed everybody knows
    I’m sitting down here in the campfire light
    Waiting on the ghost of Tom Joad

    Tom Joad will save the Oilers next season
    Turn them from Nixon To Hero

  151. innercitysmytty says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    If they hire Viveiros I wonder if this helps Tmac change his old school thinking and get more out of players that don’t “earn” it?

  152. Denis Lemieux says:

    digger50: Kassian

    The need for a 1RW on a line with RNH and McDavid goes something like this: big, fast, goes to the net, hits, willing to be first guy back on defense, willing to fight if liberties are taken. This could be Kassian but coach would have to work with him and shape him into the role. Current coach like to smash square pegs into round holes until they break and ignores oddly shaped toys. Too bad.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    Was only able to watch the first period but nice to see Hebig end with 2 goals and an assist.

  154. eidy says:

    Just got back from the memorial cup and Hebig had a nice game. The first goal was 13 seconds in and the second as part of a 4 goal 3rd period comeback. Too bad that the goalies had an off night for Regina. One Paddock misplayed on a penalty kill when the shot was fired down the ice. Misplayed it and it got caught under his foot, basically spun it back into his own net. The second was Kubick misplaying a puck wide of the net into his own net. Ugh. What did woodguy say about it being called “mostly goalies.”

    I mainly went to watch Dobson and I was not disappointed. Played against the Steel/Hebig/Henry line and essentially shut them down until what was thought to be garbage time. Also played first line power play and first line penalty kill. He was exceptional tonight. Wonderful skater and really maintained his gaps. He scored the first goal by joining the rush for the Titan and the empty netter, overall he had 7 shots total. Acadia is a very fast and aggressive team and came at the pats in waves of 5 (until they were up 7-2). Dobson was eager to join and never missed a chance to do so. He was the fourth man in on the rush and made crisp, effective passes. He is a big guy too at 6 3 and looks like he will be in the Adam Larsson size range. He reminded me so much of watching Petry and man do I miss him. Only thing I could see as being a negative is that he used his stick well, but could have been more physical. If he ends up being the choice at #10 I would be pretty happy with that.

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    innercitysmytty:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    If they hire Viveiros I wonder if this helps Tmac change his old school thinking and get more out of players that don’t “earn” it?

    I’d love to see them hire Viveiros.

    People I know connected to the WHL keep saying he’s the best coach they’ve seen in 15 years or so

  156. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    eidy:
    Just got back from the memorial cup and Hebig had a nice game.The first goal was 13 seconds in and the second as part of a4 goal 3rd period comeback.Too bad that the goalies had an off night for Regina.One Paddock misplayed on a penalty kill when the shot was fired down the ice.Misplayed it and it got caught under his foot, basically spun it back into his own net.The second was Kubick misplaying a puck wide of the net into his own net.Ugh.What did woodguy say about it being called “mostly goalies.”

    I mainly went to watch Dobson and I was not disappointed.Played against the Steel/Hebig/Henry line and essentially shut them down until what was thought to be garbage time.Also playedfirst line power play and first line penalty kill.He was exceptional tonight.Wonderful skater and really maintained his gaps.He scored the first goalby joining the rush for the Titan and the empty netter, overall he had 7 shots total.Acadia is a very fast and aggressive team and came at the pats in waves of 5 (until they were up 7-2).Dobson was eager to join and never missed a chance to do so.He was the fourth man in on the rush and made crisp, effective passes.He is a big guy too at 6 3 and looks like he will be in the Adam Larsson size range.He reminded me so much of watching Petry and man do I miss him.Only thing I could see as being a negative is that he used his stick well, but could have been more physical.If he ends up being the choice at #10 I would be pretty happy with that.

    Thanks for the trip report!

  157. Jaxon says:

    For Farabee at #10 fans…

    Here is what I will note re: Farabee.
    He only played an estimated 13.25 TOI at 5-on-5
    I’ve found 13.5 minutes as a very real line in the sand for drafting an impact player. Of players who scored very high Primary Points / 60 in their draft season, here is the list of most productive players in Canadian Junior (since 2005) and USHL (since 2016) who played less than 13.5:

    Draft Year – Player – Expected 5-on-5 Primary Points at Top 6 TOI
    2008 Eric O’Dell 34
    2018 Joel Farabee 32***
    2007 Sam Gagner 32
    2006 Bobby Hughes 31
    2006 Riley Holzapfel 30
    2011 Marek Tvrdon 30
    2013 Oliver Bjorkstrand 29
    2006 John Hughes 29
    2015 Zachary Senyshyn 29
    2014 Andrew Mangiapane 28
    2007 Stefan Legein 28
    2011 Justin Thomas 28
    2017 Jacob Tortora 28
    2007 Dale Mitchell 28
    2008 Greg Nemisz 28
    2005 Devin Setoguchi 27
    2015 Blake Speers 27
    2006 Codey Burki 27
    2017 Ivan Lodnia 26
    2005 Daniel Ryder 26
    2010 Austin Watson 26
    2013 Max Domi 26
    2005 Radek Smolenak 26
    2008 Cody Hodgson 25
    2005 Francis Charette 25
    2006 Michael Grabner 25
    2016 Logan DeNoble 25
    2012 Andreas Athanasiou 25
    2006 Peter Mueller 25
    2010 Devante Smith-Pelly 25
    2014 Jayce Hawryluk 25

    Eek, that’s a long list of misfits. Even the players who have had NHL careers have struggled with inconsistency and getting benched and being in the doghouse. Players like Gagner, Setoguchi, Domi, Hodgson, Grabner, Athanasiou and Mueller are the most successful on this list and they have all struggled throughout their careers and bounced around the NHL.

    Now compare that to the guys with more than 13.5 minutes:

    Draft Year – Player – Expected 5-on-5 Primary Points at Top 6 TOI
    2005 Sidney Crosby 48
    2015 Connor McDavid 44
    2018 Andrei Svechnikov 39***
    2015 Mitchell Marner 37
    2015 Dylan Strome 37
    2014 Robby Fabbri 34
    2007 Patrick Kane 32
    2013 Nathan MacKinnon 30
    2014 Sam Bennett 30
    2014 Spencer Watson 30
    2010 Taylor Hall 30
    2013 Nicolas Petan 29
    2016 Pierre-Luc Dubois 29
    2016 Alex DeBrincat 29
    2016 Cameron Morrison 29
    2016 Adam Mascherin 29
    2008 Steven Stamkos 29
    2009 Scott Glennie 29
    2018 Oliver Wahlstrom 29***
    2013 Jonathan Drouin 29
    2010 Tyler Seguin 29
    2011 Ryan Strome 28
    2006 Chris Stewart 28
    2009 Evander Kane 28
    2005 Bobby Ryan 28
    2017 Owen Tippett 28
    2010 Justin Shugg 28
    2018 Jonathan Gruden 28***
    2017 Nick Suzuki 27
    2009 John Tavares 27
    2010 Tyler Toffoli 27
    2014 Nick Ritchie 26
    2014 Nikolaj Ehlers 26
    2008 Tyler Ennis 26
    2014 Leon Draisaitl 26

    A few misses, but all the hits belong to this list. So while Farabee’s 32 is impressive, his TOI/GP is why I’d be wary of drafting Farabee. Will he be the only one to have a consistently successful career out of the first list? Maybe, but I wouldn’t gamble on it. I’d gamble on Merkley before Farabee. Whalstrom and Gruden (dark horse pick) look like much better USHL bets by this metric.

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VGK fancies for the playoffs via Natural Stat Trick.

    Note: These are not score adjusted and Vegas has lead for 363 min, been tied for 277 min, and been behind 115 min, so score effect abound.

    All results 5v5

    Forwards CF% (all shots share)
    Jonathan Marchessault 54.3
    William Karlsson 53.7
    Reilly Smith 53.7
    Ryan Carpenter 53.2
    Erik Haula 50.8
    David Perron 50.8
    James Neal 49.4
    Cody Eakin 46.9
    Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 46.8
    Alex Tuch 46.3
    Tomas Nosek 44.3

    CF% Dmen
    Player CF%
    Jon Merrill 54.9
    Shea Theodore 52.9
    Colin Miller 52.1
    Deryk Engelland 50.8
    Nate Schmidt 49.5
    Brayden McNabb 47.5
    Luca Sbisa 42.0

    Forwards SCF% (scoring chance share)
    Ryan Carpenter 57.5
    Erik Haula 55.8
    David Perron 54.8
    Jonathan Marchessault 54.0
    Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 52.9
    Reilly Smith 52.9
    James Neal 52.6
    William Karlsson 51.5
    Cody Eakin 50.8
    Alex Tuch 50.6
    Tomas Nosek 50.0

    Dmen SCF%
    Jon Merrill 58.1
    Colin Miller 58.0
    Shea Theodore 56.8
    Deryk Engelland 53.6
    Nate Schmidt 49.1
    Luca Sbisa 48.5
    Brayden McNabb 48.2

    Forward HDCF% (high danger shot attempts share)
    Ryan Carpenter 55.4
    Jonathan Marchessault 52.2
    Alex Tuch 50.0
    William Karlsson 49.5
    Reilly Smith 48.8
    Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 48.2
    Erik Haula 47.0
    Cody Eakin 45.8
    James Neal 45.4
    David Perron 42.0
    Tomas Nosek 39.5

    Player HDCF%
    Jon Merrill 60.0
    Shea Theodore 54.8
    Colin Miller 51.3
    Deryk Engelland 50.0
    Brayden McNabb 42.5
    Luca Sbisa 41.5
    Nate Schmidt 41.3

    Now lets add a lot of goaltending and a bit of shooting.

    Forward GF% (goal share)
    William Karlsson 77.8
    Jonathan Marchessault 75.0
    Tomas Nosek 75.0
    Reilly Smith 73.3
    Ryan Carpenter 71.4
    Alex Tuch 66.7
    Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 66.7
    Cody Eakin 66.7
    David Perron 66.7
    James Neal 62.5
    Erik Haula 57.1

    Player GF%
    Colin Miller 88.9
    Luca Sbisa 77.8
    Jon Merrill 66.7
    Nate Schmidt 66.7
    Shea Theodore 64.7
    Deryk Engelland 62.5
    Brayden McNabb 57.1

    I find it interesting and a bit weird to see the disparity between the SCF% and HDSCF%.

    They don’t have a forward below 50% in SCF% and only 3 forwards above 50% in HDSCF%

    More goaltending:

    SV% .955
    Scoring Chance SV% .962
    High Danger SV% .939

    All situations SV% .941

    The year BOS won The Cup Thomas put up a .940 all situations SV%.

  159. godot10 says:

    Denis Lemieux: The need for a 1RW on a line with RNH and McDavid goes something like this: big, fast, goes to the net, hits, willing to be first guy back on defense, willing to fight if liberties are taken. This could be Kassian but coach would have to work with him and shape him into the role. Current coach like to smash square pegs into round holes until they break and ignores oddly shaped toys. Too bad.

    Kassian is barely an NHL player. Not even close to being a first line player, and not remotely fit enough to play for 20 minutes. Heck, he only shows up for about 20 games a season.

    Rattie isn’t close to being good enough defensively for the spot.

    They need to get somebody like Rieder.

  160. digger50 says:

    Rube Foster,

    Wonderfully said

    Look forward to more posts

  161. digger50 says:

    godot10: Kassian is barely an NHL player.Not even close to being a first line player, and not remotely fit enough to play for 20 minutes.Heck, he only shows up for about 20 games a season.

    Rattie isn’t close to being good enough defensively for the spot.

    They need to get somebody like Rieder.

    You miss the point……again.

  162. innercitysmytty says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Agreed I’ve heard nothing but good things as well and his record speaks for itself. Connecting the dots it sure seems like the delay in announcing the assistant coaching hires may have to do with his team still playing. Hope that’s the case because I think he could be a very important addition in moving the needle with our young depth players.

  163. sliderule says:

    Jaxon,

    Some junior coaches play two lines,some three and very few rotate four.

    Farabee played a lot of games with USDP and if that’s were time on ice came from then I suspect as a development team they would be rolling lines.

    In the u18 tournament just by eye he seemed to be on the ice a lot 5on5

    Maybe my view was affected by the fact he was on the number one PK and PP.

  164. Wilde says:

    sliderule,

    Jaxon,

    Yeah, it’s the special teams work. He isn’t getring sheltered in any sense from zonestart to quality of competition

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pronman’s final rankings are sure interesting.

    He’s got Merkley at 10 and the rising Finn at 4, among other interesting picks.

  166. maudite says:

    Rube Foster,

    I see woodguy already said it but I am going to repeat it:

    Perfect post.

    If you can’t figure out how to make a guy who showed some potential success on a 2nd powerplay unit
    Had pretty decent goal differential, even though he did seem to excel at 5×5 scoring if given bad linemates
    Had better faceoff numbers than almost any center you have in the organization
    Seemed to have an uncanny knack of contributing to pretty solid PK percentages when out on it
    Had an uncanny knack of drawing a lot more penalties than he seemed to take
    Had leader stamped to his passport at every level he played before you drafted him

    Into a fourth line center…you really need to question what you are doing.

    Oh right, Lander couldn’t skate like the wind

  167. Jaxon says:

    Wilde:
    sliderule,

    Jaxon,

    Yeah, it’s the special teams work. He isn’t getring sheltered in any sense from zonestart to quality of competition

    sliderule:
    Jaxon,

    Some junior coaches play two lines,some three and very few rotate four.

    Farabee played a lot of games with USDP and if that’s were time on ice came from then I suspect as a development team they would be rolling lines.

    In the u18 tournament just by eye he seemed to be on the ice a lot 5on5

    Maybe my view was affected by the fact he was on the number one PK and PP.

    Haha, I knew Wilde might take exception to this. You may be right, I just think that kind of red flag shouldn’t be ignored. The data I got was from his USHL numbers on prospect-stats.com. You could say the same thing about Junior coaches of all the players on the first list. And the same about the eye test of Gagner, Grabner and others on the first list during their draft season and at international tournaments.

    # Name Age Pos eTOI/GP eP1/60
    1 Jack Hughes 16.34 C 17.07 3.78
    2 Oliver Wahlstrom 17.257 RW 16.26 3.41
    3 Trevor Zegras 16.49 C 15.31 2.15
    4 Jonathan Gruden 17.367 C 14.43 3.33
    5 Ryder Rolston 15.874 C 13.93 2.53
    6 Matthew Boldy 16.447 LW 13.61 2.59
    7 Sean Farrell 15.869 LW 13.34 1.72
    8 Joel Farabee 17.555 LW 13.24 4.01

    Farabee was 8th on his team in 5-on-5 Time On Ice. Behind two 15-year-olds and three 16-year-olds. I wouldn’t have a lot of confidence in that. And he’s substantially behind the first line numbers of 17.07, 16.26, and 15.31.

    Gagner’s scouting report: “A skilled forward with the ability to make the big plays… has very good hands and is creative with the puck… has a good wrist shot with a quick release… has high-end passing skill both forehand and backhand… sees the ice very well… reliable in the defensive end and used in critical situations… a good skater”

    EDIT: Pronman’s new list came out this morning and he has Farabee at 27th! Woah. I wouldn’t put him that low. He has Merkley at #10.

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