The first thing to identify is the target. If Peter Chiarelli plans on trading No. 10 overall, it’s important we put a value on it. Let’s say the pick ends up being Jesperi Kotkaniemi, he of the solid boxcars in the Sm-Liiga (57, 10-19-29) this past season. He’s a center, he could absolutely become a quality piece of the McDavid cluster and his entry-level contract will be a bargain. That’s a lot of value. What would the offer look like that gets Chiarelli to trade this player away? Is it out there?
Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your hot liquid. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.
- New Lowetide: The Second Round.
- Lowetide: Oilers hire three assistant coaches, receive positive response
- Lowetide: Pennants!
- Jonathan Willis: Al Montoya’s likely exit means an end of an era for Peter Chiarelli
- Scott Wheeler: Five Sleeper Picks
- Corey Pronman: Pronman mailbag
- Sunaya Sapurji: Oliver Wahlstrom has been in the spotlight for a long time, but his desire to be ‘special’ burns deep
- Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers and the WHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.
Two quick passes by Dimitri Samorukov (#Oilers) and Ivan Chekhovich (#SJSharks) results in Nikita Anokhovsky scoring his first goal and third point of the night. 4-1. #BlackSeaCup #NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/v0BPEEmW5E
— Steven Ellis (@StevenEllisNHL) May 26, 2018
RECENT FINNS IN THE SM-LIIGA
This is each man in his draft year, with time on ice giving an extra angle for the group. I don’t have 5×5 numbers, but JP’s points-per-60 (2.23) aren’t so far away from Patrik Laine’s (2.49). Kotkaniemi would be a tough player for the Oilers to pass up, the first round picks since 2013 (Nurse, Leon, 97, Puljujarvi, Yamamaoto, Kotkamiemi) forming a brilliant talent cluster.
— Mark Edwards (@MarkEdwardsHP) May 26, 2018
I’ll have my Top 120 (might be 125) on Friday and that will be the final list. Some late additions and movement as there always is, mostly Euro (again, as usual). Edwards’ publication is simply incredible, his quote of the scout is interesting. It might put Edmonton in a good trade spot if a club is desperate to grab a (for instance) center.
For me, my list (and I’m not comparing it to the people who do this stuff all the time, including video and staffs, et cetera) the first 12 names are strong and each player has enough about him to be considered a top drawer prospect. After that, from No. 13 (Barrett Hayton) to No. 41 (Nathan Dunkley) math doesn’t see a lot of difference. You can rely on scouting reports and date of birth, Mr. Edwards’ quote reflects how important it is to have the right person in the evaluation role. There’s enough confusion in this draft for some team to get rich and another team to fall even farther behind. I remember the 2002 draft was supposed to be weak, Oilers walked out of the second round with two men who played a long time in the league.
THE 2013 TRADE TALK
- MacT: “Well, we’ve talked to a number of teams about that seventh pick and moving that pick in either direction. I think that’s something that we’re very amenable to. If we do move that pick back and get an asset that we feel can come in and help the current group, we’d be more than happy to have any of those discussions, and have had many of those discussions with a lot of the managers at this point. In terms of moving up, I’ve had a couple discussions with managers about moving up.”
In the spring of 2013 MacT was a mover, wanting to impact goaltending (Vancouver reportedly asking for No. 7 plus plus for Cory Schneider before settling for No. 9 overall and Bo Horvat). Other names in play for Edmonton were Braydon Coburn and Cal Clutterbuck. MacT didn’t make the deal because the ask was too great, the Oilers struggled along for two more seasons before settling the goalie situation. Trading for three veteran assets would have improved the team’s chances in 2013-14, but would it have been enough? MacT held on to the pick and the youth that would have been required to make all those deals. I think it was the wise choice. Schneider would have been a fabulous addition.
Nail Yakupov parted ways with Igor Larionov
— Igor Eronko (@IgorEronko) May 27, 2018
I will tell you the Oilers made the right choice at No. 1 overall in 2012 by choosing Nail Yakupov. It didn’t work out but on draft day he was the most compelling resume. Six years later, he’s (for his career) 1.42/60 scoring 5×5. That’s about Ryan Strome’s production this past season. I hope the young man finds a better place and a better day.
TARGETS FOR NO. 10 OVERALL
I’ve talked about this before, but for me the only reasonable return for No. 10 overall is a more advanced player who is still under control. Remember, this isn’t a group that will be traded, but rather a list of successful players in their entry deals. I’m sure much of the list includes untradeable names. Here’s my list, with 2017-18 5×5/60 scoring.
- R Alex DeBrincat 2.14
- R Mikko Rantanen 2.09
- R Brock Boeser 2.09
- LC Danton Heinen 1.97
- L Clayton Keller 1.96
- R Alexander Kerfoot 1.89
- RC Nick Schmaltz 1.88
- L Anthony Beauvillier 1.82
- L Pavel Buchnevich 1.77
- L Timo Meier 1.71
Interesting. I’ll tell you that half of those guys would never get traded for No. 10 overall (why would Chicago trade either of their guys) and most of the rest have some risk attached (do we know Danton Heinen will have the career this past season implies?). Now the defense.
- Travis Dermott 1.40
- Markus Nutivaara 1.37
- Mikhail Sergachev 1.29
- Charlie McAvoy 1.15
- Will Butcher 1.13
- Ivan Provorov 1.08
- Thomas Chabot 1.04
- Christian Djoos 1.00
Same as above, several blue you can’t pry off an NHL roster with a tire iron and a few who you wouldn’t consider trading No. 10 overall to acquire. Ivan Provorov is a player that jumps off the page but the Flyers aren’t trading him no matter the package. I included Nutivaara because he is signed for several years at a good number. I wouldn’t trade the pick for him.
For me, trading the pick (who we have given a value to by naming Kotkaniemi) makes sense only if you get an NHL-ready plug and play who is also under control. Who on these lists would you trade the pick for?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning as we get ready for the most unlikely Stanley Cup Final of our lifetime. Scheduled to appear, beginning at 10 on TSN1260:
- Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. The SCF starts tonight! Incredible stories everywhere.
- Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers coaching additions and what it means, SCF, Eskimos look good in May game.