Little Deuce Coupe

If you’re piecing together the “training camp hopeful” list for this fall (guilty as charged) Cooper Marody makes the list without a throw. His scouting report (ISS had him No. 83 in 2015, saying “skilled centre shows high-end creativity” called his skating very good and noted he needed to work on his defensive game) was strong in his draft year and he closed like a demon in his final college season (as a junior). How much will he play?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your coffee. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

CONDORS FORWARDS, FINAL 18 GAMES 2017-18

This is March 1 through the end of the season (18 games, Condors went 9-6-3) and the team was turning over a lot of forwards. I’ve included everyone 23 and under who acted like a prospect and it’s a fun list.

  • Cooper Marody played just three games but looked very good in that short span. He had seven shots in the three games and was effective on the power play. There are 68 AHL games in a Condors season, suspect Marody will see 5-10 games in the NHL if he performs well in the minors.
  • Tyler Benson is going to get a helluva push by the organization if he can score/check in the AHL. The Oilers haven’t deployed a rookie forward in a feature role at the AHL in ages. According to prospect-stats.com, Jesse Puljujarvi was estimated to have averaged 14:21 5×5 time on ice as a rookie, I bet Tyler Benson gets more time that JP did as a rookie pro under Jay Woodcroft. My guess is Benson could see 18-30 NHL games in the coming season if things go well and I’m damned certain he’ll play with a quality AHL center.
  • Tyler Vesel also came in late and had some success. I’m not sure what to make of him, but will guess he doesn’t see the NHL in 2017-18.
  • Joe Gambardella finished well and I think he’s got a chance to see the NHL, but only for a few games. He’s an older prospect and (like Vesel, or Drake Caggiula) should be close to big league time the moment he turned pro.
  • Kailer Yamamoto (who hasn’t played in the AHL) will be in the mix for an NHL job in training camp. Even if he doesn’t make it out of camp, I expect we’ll see him in the NHL for 40+ games this coming year. As an aside, whenever I talk about Yamamoto playing in the NHL next season the push back from readers is incredible. Please understand I’m not trying to irritate you but am calling it as I see it.

CONDORS DEFENSE, FINAL 18 GAMES 2017-18

  • Ethan Bear should see NHL time, he had 18 games in 2017-18 and might get an equal amount this coming season. Could he get into 25-30? I think that might be a stretch but we’ll see.
  • William Lagesson will be new to North American pro hockey this winter, but I can see him getting into some NHL games.
  • Caleb Jones had a tough rookie season but he has great boots and will be a year older. He should get at least a look during the campaign.

There will be dozens of little pieces like this out there over the next while, we won’t know if NHL teams have taken a player off their draft boards until draft weekend. It can work out for a team with some iron though. Cam Fowler was free falling in his draft year, Anaheim stepped up and got a fine player at an excellent spot.

KOTKANIEMI

  • Arpon Basu: The Canadiens appear interested; they were one of three teams to take Kotkaniemi out for dinner in Buffalo, with the Detroit Red Wings (No. 6 overall pick) and Edmonton Oilers (No. 10) the others. (The Athletic)

Another thing we’ll see in the next couple of weeks occurs here with Mr. Basu’s verbal on Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Montreal badly needs a center, but there are more prominent players available. Moving up in the draft is a blessing, but it also offers some difficulties. One thing we can probably conclude? The Finn will be off the board by No. 10 overall. While I am suggesting good draft reading, there’s a dynamite article from Fluto Shinzawa at The Athletic about using analytics to project players. Michael Schuckers and his work are profiled, he’s a well known contributor and author in the field.

A REMINDER

In reading the summer discourse I’m seeing some thoughts popping up that don’t make a lot of sense. I thought it might be an idea to go back to the math of the 2017-18 season and refresh our memories on who accomplished what last winter. I always look at 5×5 scoring per 60, it’s pure and gives us a strong indication about what forwards were doing. It isn’t perfect, because McDavid was zooming some of these cats, and other cats were playing against the soft parade. That said, it gives us a line in the sand. A reminder, my line goes like this:

  • 2.00+ A solid-to-quality first line player, or a very productive second line forward.
  • 1.75-1.99 A solid to quality second line player, or an overachieving third/fourth liner earning a trip up the depth chart.
  • 1.50-1.74 A productive bottom six forward or a top 6 forward in a little danger of losing his role
  • 1.30-1.49 Solid role player on a support line or a badly struggling top 6 forward
  • Everything else is fringe.

Top Drawer

  1. Connor McDavid 3.17. The best hockey player on planet earth.
  2. Ty Rattie 2.49. How much can he score alongside 97 over a full season?
  3. Leon Draisaitl 2.29. A quality player transitioning to No. 2 C and unfettered success.

The Second Drawer

  1. Pontus Aberg 1.99.  There’s a job opening on a good line, can he grab it?
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.96. A productive player who may spike offensively this coming season.
  3. Mike Cammalleri 1.80.  Veteran was productive, may no return.
  4. Patrick Maroon 1.76. He fit like a glove on McDavid’s line, the only issue was price.

The Middle Drawer

  • None

The Fourth Drawer

  1. Ryan Strome 1.46.  Just missed a ‘productive’ season by my metric, he was solid.
  2. Jujhar Khaira 1.38. Fits the solid role player definition perfectly.
  3. Milan Lucic 1.30. Fits the badly struggling top 6 forward perfectly.

The Bottom Drawer

  1. Zack Kassian 1.29. Just missed solid support player, that’s what he is.
  2. Anton Slepyshev 1.26. He didn’t score enough, that injury cost him.
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi 1.25. He flourished, then struggled, but what a skill set.
  4. Mark Letestu 1.16. His productivity was subpar for the role.
  5. Drake Caggiula 1.16. There isn’t enough offense here.
  6. Iiro Pakarinen 0.52. Great penalty killer.
  7. Kailer Yamamoto 0.50. He had myriad chances, similar to Leon in his draft +1.

It’s important to remember these things, because the more distance between the season and the current moment, the more we allow our minds to wander. Milan Lucic could improve a lot and still be a drag on a top line, for instance. Jujhar Khaira was productive but it isn’t reasonable to place him in a feature role. Drake Caggiula should not be a top option for the 97 line on RW.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show with a lot going on. At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN & The Athletic. Game Four SCF, can the Capitals widen the lead? Also, Phil Kessel’s future.
  • Max Bultman, covers the Detroit Tigers for The Athletic. We’ll chat draft and Tigers.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Eskimos have some questions, Oilers at the draft.
  • Keegan Matheson, Baseball Toronto. Jays draft and Vladdy Jr’s injury.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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90 Responses to "Little Deuce Coupe"

  1. Jaxon says:

    Continued from yesterday’s discussion Re: my understanding of NMCs, NTCs, as they pertain to Russell and a possible June 2002 Expansion draft

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/kris-russell

    2018-19 NMC
    2019-20 Modified NTC, NMC
    2020-21 Modified NTC, NMC
    CLAUSE DETAILS: 2019-20: Player submits a 10 team trade list. 2020-21: Player submits a 15 team trade list.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#nmc

    “The clause can travel with the player even if he consents to being traded or is claimed on waivers (waivers are not applicable in NMCs)
    This requires that the acquiring team sign an addendum to the contract ensuring that the clause does in fact travel with the player (written by the player’s agent)
    If the acquiring team refuses to sign the addendum, and the player waives his clause anyway, at that point the clause may be nullified”

    SEASON CAP SAVE BUYOUT CAP HIT
    2018-19 $3,388,889 $611,111 – this represents huge cap savings for the upcoming season when they may need it most, especially if they want to go after any substantial players via trade or free agency.
    2019-20 $2,888,889 $1,111,111
    2020-21 $388,889 $3,611,111
    2021-22 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111
    2022-23 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111
    2023-24 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111

    TRADE NOW
    To trade Russell anytime between now and July 1st, 2019, they’ll need to ask Russell to waive his NMC. Now, Russell and his agent can request that the condition of waiving his NMC be that the other team retains it and it travels with him to the new team. If the team refuses to sign then the trade would not happen unless Russell agrees to waive it anyway and lose his NMC and therefore risk being exposed in the expansion draft. I really doubt Russell would agree to this and I doubt the acquiring team would take on a NMC if he doesn’t agree. Therefore it would seem he is untradable before July 1st, 2019.

    TRADE BETWEEN JULY 1st, 2019 to June 18th-ish, 2020 (date possible protected lists must be submitted)
    During this time Russell has a Modified NTC and a NMC. He cannot be sent down or waived and he must be protected. If requested by Edmonton, he must submit a 10 team trade list. If they find a fit and he is traded, the acquiring team would be taking on the exact same contract, as Russell has not had to waive anything. Therefore his NMC travels with him. Which means they will have to protect him in the expansion draft. There may be some teams willing to do this but if Russell doesn’t want to be traded I’m sure he can submit a list of 10 teams who already have 3 or more quality D that need to be protected. If he is willing to go to Calgary maybe he submits Calgary and 9 other teams which need to protect 3 or 4 D already.

    It’s hard to do a crystal ball as some players won’t re-sign with their current clubs, but they will sign new players they value, so it should be a similar situation whenever it happens.

    Ex.)
    1. ANA Fowler, Lindholm, Montour, Manson
    2. NSH Ekholm, Josi, Ellis, Subban
    3. CAR Slavin, Faulk, Pesce, Hanifin, Fleury, van Riemsdyk
    4. PHI Provorov, Gostisbehere, Gudas, Sanheim
    5. CBJ Jones, Werenski, Savard
    6. DAL Klingberg, Lindell, Pateryn
    7. MTL Weber, Reilly, Petry (NMC), Alzner, Juulsen
    8. WPG Byfuglien, Trouba, Morrisey
    9. CGY Giordano, Hamilton, Hamonic, Brodie
    10. PIT Letang (NMC), Dumoulin, Maatta, Schultz
    11. WSH Orlov, Niskanen, Carlson
    12. NYR Shattenkirk (NMC), Staal (NMC), Pionk, Skjei
    13. SJS Burns, Vlasic (NMC), Braun
    14. FLA Ekblad, Yandle (NMC), Matheson
    15. CHI Keith (NMC), Seabrook (NMC), Gustafsson
    16. LAK Doughty, Martinez, Phaneuf (NMC), Forbort, Muzzin
    17. STL Pietrangelo, Parayko, Edmundson
    18. TBL Hedman, Stralman, Dotchin, Sergachev
    19. MIN Suter (NMC), Brodin, Dumba, Spurgeon
    20. TOR Gardiner, Zaitsev, Rielly

    That’s already more work than I was hoping to put into this post, but I think it illustrates just how many teams Russell and his agent will be able to find with a few days research that will find his NMC a non-starter. I’d argue almost every player listed here is more valuable than Russell. Not to mention that Russell’s cap hit is substantial enough to scare a few cap-crunched teams away.

    JUNE 18, 2020 PROTECTED LISTS:
    If they can’t get rid of them by June 18th, 2020, then they will have to protect him.

    In a 7F-3D situation that would mean something like this:
    Lucic (NMC), McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Puljujarvi, Khaira, Strome
    Nurse, Larsson, Russell (NMC)
    They lose Klefbom (or Sekera, but he’s probably traded in June 2019) in this scenario.

    In a 4F-4D situation that would mean something like this:
    Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, Russell (NMC)
    Lucic (NMC), McDavid, Draisaitl, and one of Nugent-Hopkins or Puljujarvi
    They lose Nugent-Hopkins or Puljujarvi in this scenario.

    If they buyout Russell on June 17th, 2020, they can do this:
    Lucic (NMC), McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Puljujarvi, Khaira, Strome
    Nurse, Larsson, Klefbom
    They lose someone like Benning in this scenario, which is much more acceptable.

    SEASON CAP SAVE BUYOUT CAP HIT
    2020-21 $1,000,000 $3,000,000
    2021-22 -$500,000 $500,000

    Personally, I’d be okay with buying him out now to save cap space in an offseason where they really need it. Not sure why Pouliot was bought out last summer when they didn’t really need the space. Plus they could have used his PK ability and some scoring depth on the wings. Okay, slightly off topic. but it would make buying out Russell now a bit more palatble as it would be the only buyout on the books.

    Ideally, any RHD they acquire would be short-term deals expiring before the expansion draft or for players who have yet to play 10 North American professional games (while on an NHL contract) as of today so they won’t need to be protected in the expansion draft. (If I understand the eligibility rules correctly)

  2. jake70 says:

    Jaxon, good work. Just where did Russell get the leverage for that contract (term, money, NMC)….certainly had to be more than Sekera’s injury.

  3. jake70 says:

    Lucic in 4th drawer….not good. Maybe sooner rather than later, get him in the Ryan Smyth role? Encourage him to spend as much time as possible tipping pucks (is there a puck shooting machine like in baseball, he could set it up at home and practice).

  4. John Chambers says:

    LT,

    I see Marody as a more ready prospect than Yamamoto, and possibly a better player than Rattie. For those reasons I could see him making the team out of camp and working his way up the depth chart on RW.

    Funny, he could play anywhere from AHL 1C, to 4RW, to 1RW. Fascinating player to follow come autumn.

  5. Jaxon says:

    I’ll repost this for anyone who might have missed it yesterday:

    I’ve compiled a spreadsheet of Rankings, and what I consider Consensus lists and Mock drafts. It shows a pretty good picture of the range of each draft pick and how the draft might go in the mocks. I hope it’s okay to show these. Please do go to the website for each list and read their scouting reports and methodology.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

    A good way to see a player’s range is to simply hit “command”-F for find and it will highlight every instance of that player.

    There are tabs at the bottom: Rankings, Consensus, Mocks.

    I will try to add as new rankings, mocks and consensus lists become available. Let me know if there are any reputable sources I should include.

  6. russ99 says:

    Having no middle drawer players is the big issue with this roster, not to mention there’s very few players below that level that look to jump up.

  7. Biggus Dickus says:

    It’s weird how fast young guys can rack up the gp. It felt like bear was only here for a few games. Guess I blocked out just how much garbage time there was this season.

  8. doritogrande says:

    Montreal badly needs a center, but there are more prominent players available.

    Not sure if I read the pre-amble wrong but Pronman’s article for The Athletic had Jesperi as the 4th best prospect numerically. He may be in that range after all, and we’re seeing a late spike we haven’t seen since Ryan Johansen/OEL.

    Worth noting he had Dobson and Bouchard in the mid-teens, which was surprising to me.

  9. Durag says:

    This article really highlights the infuriating discrepancy between the good work Chiarelli is doing at the AHL level and the bad work he is doing at the NHL level. It seems like he really needs a strong assistant GM who has the chops to be a GM in his own right. Who is the Trent Yawney of GMs?

  10. Rondo says:

    doritogrande,

    Possible 2 centers will go in the top 10.

  11. russ99 says:

    Durag:
    This article really highlights the infuriating discrepancy between the good work Chiarelli is doing at the AHL level and the bad work he is doing at the NHL level. It seems like he really needs a strong assistant GM who has the chops to be a GM in his own right. Who is the Trent Yawney of GMs?

    No good work is being done at the AHL level, other than the new prospects that came up the last month of the year and a fluke fed McDavid garbage time in Rattie, who may or may not stick at the NHL level next year.

    IMO we had a year off from player development, other than Bear, Jones and maybe Gambardella.

    Last July we signed a bunch of AHL lifers to fill in the Bakersfield roster, and payed little attention to the NHL roster, and the lack of support that Puljujavi was given at Bakersfield was borderline criminal.

    If anything, we need to fire MacTavish and Howson who were in charge of the AHL level and likely orchestrated most of those signings. We need to bring in a real assistant GM running an AHL team focusing on player developement like Pittsburgh does, instead of old boy hangers-on running a team out with overage grinders.

  12. Fuge Udvar says:

    Durag,

    We potentially have that assistant GM already in Keith Gretzky. Don’t let his last name fool you. He is here on merit. Had an excellent track record as director of scouting for Boston (Pasternak, McAvoy, DeBrusk, Heinen, Carlo) and so far his draft last year here looks pretty good. No GM experience but looks like he could he in the Todd Nelson spot for GMs.

  13. 36 percent body fat says:

    why is Caggulia a thing?

  14. Lowetide says:

    Bakersfield Condors
    Verified account
    @Condors
    45m45 minutes ago
    More
    The Condors have named Dave Manson and J-F Houle as assistant coaches under head coach Jay Woodcroft

    Another WHL coach added by the Oilers. Manson was associate coach under Marc Habscheid in Prince Albert.

  15. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors
    Verified account
    @Condors45m45 minutes ago
    More
    The Condors have named Dave Manson and J-F Houle as assistant coaches under head coach Jay Woodcroft

    Another WHL coach added by the Oilers. Manson was associate coach under Marc Habscheid in Prince Albert.

    – Manson coached Drai in WHL: he coached him up pretty well: encouraging stuff

  16. Professor Q says:

    Really nice Bouchard article in The Athletic by Scott Wheeler (I was working all weekend so I only got to it now).

    Check it out if you are willing!

    Any possible draft coverage collaborations coming up in The Athletic, Mr. Lowetide?

  17. PunkInDrublic says:

    36 percent body fat:
    why is Caggulia a thing?

    The same reason 36% body fat is a thing… an inability or unwillingness to do something about it.

  18. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon: This requires that the acquiring team sign an addendum to the contract ensuring that the clause does in fact travel with the player (written by the player’s agent)
    If the acquiring team refuses to sign the addendum, and the player waives his clause anyway, at that point the clause may be nullified”

    I think the pertinent part here is the acquiring team has to agree to take the movement clause.

    When the Limited NTC kicks in the Oilers have the right to trade him, without his consent, to one of his ten teams in the first year that activates, whether or not the acquiring team accepts the clause.

    In the case they ask him to waive he has control over the situation entirely, so he can stipulate that the acquiring team has to take his movement clause which of course makes things much more difficult.

  19. Bling says:

    I think we have a good idea of what DC is (and is not) at this point.

    We have a player that struggles defensively, scores at a pedestrian (to put it mildly) clip 5 v 5, and can’t help out on the PK. He doesn’t seem to be a C (FO% 20.8).

    He did score some goals this season, but I wonder if there’s any sustain to that given his shooting percentage of 12.5 percent (7.5 last year). His shot attempt rate actually dropped slightly this season (181/67 vs 172/60). He also had 3 PP goals, and I can’t imagine him being a fixture on a PP run by Manny.

    He’s basically a 4th liner that can’t pitch in on special teams. Is Todd going to continue to give him 13-14 minutes a game?

    I’d move on from him.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, if I had to put my money on a lesser talked about player (i.e not Yamamoto) making the team out of camp, it would be on Cooper. I think he breaks camp as a Condor (on the assumption that a veteran 4C is signed on the cheap to give Khaira some cover and the ability to play LW in the middle 6) but I have much more hope for him than Brad Malone or Joe G.

    I watched 3 Michigan games after the trade and I was pleasantly surprised with Marody. He was more skilled than I anticipated and was an “all tools” type of guy trusted by his coach in all situations. Yes, he was older than most on the team but he looked good. He also have a very good short stretch in Bakersfield at the end of the season, accumulating some points and being the best player on the ice (from accounts) in a couple of the games.

    He may never play in the NHL but he’s more of a “real prospect” than I figured when we made the trade and, as the final piece of the Maroon deadline deal, I consider the deal a good one for Chiarelli.

  21. Jordan says:


    Arpon Basu: The Canadiens appear interested; they were one of three teams to take Kotkaniemi out for dinner in Buffalo, with the Detroit Red Wings (No. 6 overall pick) and Edmonton Oilers (No. 10) the others. (The Athletic)

    Does anyone know if there is a complete list of players who were interviewed and/or taken to dinner by the Oilers? Presumably it exists, I just don’t know if it’s public.

    Thanks!

  22. Lowetide says:

    Jordan:

    Arpon Basu: The Canadiens appear interested; they were one of three teams to take Kotkaniemi out for dinner in Buffalo, with the Detroit Red Wings (No. 6 overall pick) and Edmonton Oilers (No. 10) the others. (The Athletic)

    Does anyone know if there is a complete list of players who were interviewed and/or taken to dinner by the Oilers?Presumably it exists, I just don’t know if it’s public.

    Thanks!

    In most years, the Oilers would interview a large percentage of the 110 or so kids who are at the combine. Dinner is less often published iirc.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wonder if Safin is going to play in the Q next year or in the AHL?

    Given he was drafted to the NHL from Europe and prior to being take by SJ in the import draft, he is eligible to play in the AHL as a teenager and his contract would slide if he does.

    Normally I would say that the AHL is almost always the better league to develop in but maybe its best for Safin to go back to junior? Of course, I would only support him going back to St. John if they acquired some offensive help for him – he was on an island offensively after Valeno was traded at the deadline – they often dressed 10 forwards and had Safin, a winger, playing center.

  24. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I wonder if Safin is going to play in the Q next year or in the AHL?

    Given he was drafted to the NHL from Europe and prior to being take by SJ in the import draft, he is eligible to play in the AHL as a teenager and his contract would slide if he does.

    Normally I would say that the AHL is almost always the better league to develop in but maybe its best for Safin to go back to junior? Of course, I would only support him going back to St. John if they acquired some offensive help for him – he was on an island offensively after Valeno was traded at the deadline – they often dressed 10 forwards and had Safin, a winger, playing center.

    He would be an interesting option down there, but I’d keep him in the AHL only if he was guaranteed regular at-bats.

  25. Scungilli Slushy says:

    russ99: No good work is being done at the AHL level, other than the new prospects that came up the last month of the year and a fluke fed McDavid garbage time in Rattie, who may or may not stick at the NHL level next year.

    IMO we had a year off from player development, other than Bear, Jones and maybe Gambardella.

    Last July we signed a bunch of AHL lifers to fill in the Bakersfield roster, and payed little attention to the NHL roster, and the lack of support that Puljujavi was given at Bakersfield was borderline criminal.

    If anything, we need to fire MacTavish and Howson who were in charge of the AHL level and likely orchestrated most of those signings. We need to bring in a real assistant GM running an AHL team focusing on player developement like Pittsburgh does, instead of old boy hangers-on running a team out with overage grinders.

    As always they focus on the wrong things. It was put out there many times they wanted a ‘winning culture’ which I’m sure was a reaction to the cluster they created in the NHL. Thing is you can’t learn to win watching other players do it, kids need to play their mistakes out were it matters less.

  26. Durag says:

    I saw Lennart Petrell in Pampa once. That’s my Finnish Hockey Players Eating Out in Edmonton story.

  27. pts2pndr says:

    Bling:
    I think we have a good idea of what DC is (and is not) at this point.

    We have a player that struggles defensively, scores at a pedestrian (to put it mildly) clip 5 v 5, and can’t help out on the PK. He doesn’t seem to be a C (FO% 20.8).

    He did score some goals this season, but I wonder if there’s any sustain to that given his shooting percentage of 12.5 percent (7.5 last year). His shot attempt rate actually dropped slightly this season (181/67 vs 172/60). He also had 3 PP goals, and I can’t imagine him being a fixture on a PP run by Manny.

    He’s basically a 4th liner that can’t pitch in on special teams. Is Todd going to continue to give him 13-14 minutes a game?

    I’d move on from him.

    I would have moved on on Todd! Same cook expect the same recipe! Get to love you some Cagguila!

  28. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I wonder if Safin is going to play in the Q next year or in the AHL?

    Given he was drafted to the NHL from Europe and prior to being take by SJ in the import draft, he is eligible to play in the AHL as a teenager and his contract would slide if he does.

    Normally I would say that the AHL is almost always the better league to develop in but maybe its best for Safin to go back to junior? Of course, I would only support him going back to St. John if they acquired some offensive help for him – he was on an island offensively after Valeno was traded at the deadline – they often dressed 10 forwards and had Safin, a winger, playing center.

    It is far better to play a winger at center than vice versa. The player gets to learn defensive coverage and the importance of the back check quicker. Playing JP in the AHL without an offensive center was an exersize in futility ! You can not score if you don’t rouch the puck! Not the way to increase a young offensive players confidence. Almost as bad as McLellan playing him on the fourth line!

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    18-30 NHL games for Benson this coming year?

    Wow, I love me some Tyler Benson but I’m thinking zero NHL games for him – if he’s in the NHL, its likely due to a continued lack of depth at the NHL level.

    I believe Tyler needs to peculate – maybe I’m wrong and he proves to have a 2-way game worthy of the NHL as a rookie pro – seems like a stretch though, no?

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m excited to see what Samorukov will do in Guelph this season with McFadden graduated to the pro game. He was blocked by McFadden and Merkley for minutes and PP minutes last year. He should see a minutes, and PP minutes, spike and I think he’s going to put up some nice numbers.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lagesson is a wild card for me. Ordinarily, I would think zero chance at the NHL in his first season back from Sweden. With that said, he has played in N. America before and I have a feeling about him similar to my feeling about Maroday.

    I really liked what I saw from Lagesson at the prospects camp and the rookie tournament game – he was a much better skater and puck mover than I anticipated. From all accounts, just a great season in the SEL – a huge spike in ice time and trust from his coach and that’s a key stat.

    He’s quite blocked at left D but I’m hopeful for this prospect.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Trading to move up gives me a bit of the shivers as we’d be trading out multiple assets for a single asset back at a time when we still need to focus on accumulating depth at both the NHL and prospect level.

    Don’t get me wrong, trading up to grab a Hughes or a Whalstrom certainly excites me, however, is the additional asset we’d give up worth it given the general non-consensus after the first couple picks?

    I mean, are we going to give up an additional material assets when there is a decent chance someone like Boquist or Bouchard drop to 10?

  33. RT26 says:

    Even though Russell has a NMC, I think there are teams and places he might agree to be moved to. For instance, what if we traded him to Calgary for Frolik or Michael Stone? Frolik would give us some experience in the bottom 6 (maybe a third line of Lucic-Khaira/ Strome – Frolik).

    If not Frolik, Stone would give us a RHD for two years while we let this year’s draft pick or Ethan Bear mature a little more. I would rather minimize dead cap space in the coming years.

  34. Marc says:

    I think Pitlick makes an interesting comp for Benson. They were drafted in pretty much the same place. Pitlick was old for his draft cohort and Benson about in the middle of his.

    Pitlick was a NCAA freshman his draft year and scored .5 ppg, which is great for an 18 year old freshman. Draft +1 was a so-so year in the WHL just over 1ppg. Draft +2 he was in the AHL. He scored less than .5 ppg, which isn’t great, but he was a 20 year old in a men’s league, which makes it look a lot more impressive. Three injury plagued AHL seasons followed in which he improved his scoring to around .75 ppg, but didn’t come close to playing a full season in any of them.

    Benson was a 1 ppg player in the WHL his draft year, but only played 30 games due to injury. He improved to just under 1.3 ppg in his draft +1 season, but again lost more than half the season to injury. In his draft +2 season in the WHL he stayed healthy for the full season, but his offence didn’t improve at all (just over 1.2 ppg), which isn’t great for an overager.

    If Pitlick and Benson were in the same draft class, you’d peg Pitlick as the better prospect through draft +2, as he’s keeping his head above the water in the AHL whereas Benson is treading water in the WHL.

    If Benson settles in as a .5 ppg or less player in his first AHL season, the I think we can safely pencil him in as needing a couple years of AHL seasoning and the best case scenario is probably him emerging as a useful bottom 6 player like Khaira or Pitlick in a couple years.

    If he’s shows more offense though – in the .5-1 ppg range – though, then he starts tracking ahead of Pitlick and we might have a more interesting player on our hands.

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PunkInDrublic: The same reason 36% body fat is a thing… an inability or unwillingness to do something about it.

    Well done.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lagesson is a wild card for me. Ordinarily, I would think zero chance at the NHL in his first season back from Sweden.With that said, he has played in N. America before and I have a feeling about him similar to my feeling about Maroday.

    I really liked what I saw from Lagesson at the prospects camp and the rookie tournament game – he was a much better skater and puck mover than I anticipated.From all accounts, just a great season in the SEL – a huge spike in ice time and trust from his coach and that’s a key stat.

    He’s quite blocked at left D but I’m hopeful for this prospect.

    3 years from now the only LHD on the NHL roster who will still be with team is Nurse.

    Imo

  37. judgedrude says:

    LT, you must love Keith’s interview on the Oilers website:

    “Guys have done a lot of work”, “We prep to get any play on the list…we have 120 on our list”, “We’re comfortable with who we have on our list”, “We’ll take the BPA”, “It’s our list, it’s notbody else’s list”, ‘When we put our list together…our scouts worked hard to get their guy on the list”, “We use other lists as a check”, “That’s why we do the list”, “We have to take all the pieces of the puzzle and put our list together from there”

    For Jordan…Keith says they interview 17 kids a day…but no list. 😉

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Marc:
    I think Pitlick makes an interesting comp for Benson. They were drafted in pretty much the same place. Pitlick was old for his draft cohort and Benson about in the middle of his.

    Pitlick was a NCAA freshman his draft year and scored .5 ppg, which is great for an 18 year old freshman. Draft +1 was a so-so year in the WHL just over 1ppg. Draft +2 he was in the AHL. He scored less than .5 ppg, which isn’t great, but he was a 20 year old in a men’s league, which makes it look a lot more impressive. Three injury plagued AHL seasons followed in which he improved his scoring to around .75 ppg, but didn’t come close to playing a full season in any of them.

    Benson was a 1 ppg player in the WHL his draft year, but only played 30 games due to injury. He improved to just under 1.3 ppg in his draft +1 season, but again lost more than half the season to injury. In his draft +2 season in the WHL he stayed healthyfor the full season, but his offence didn’t improve at all (just over 1.2 ppg), which isn’t great for an overager.

    If Pitlick and Benson were in the same draft class, you’d peg Pitlick as the better prospect through draft +2, as he’s keeping his head above the water in the AHL whereas Benson is treading water in the WHL.

    If Benson settles in as a .5 ppg or less player in his first AHL season, the I think we can safely pencil him in as needing a couple years of AHL seasoning andthe best case scenario is probably him emerging as a useful bottom 6 player like Khaira or Pitlick in a couple years.

    If he’s shows more offense though – in the .5-1 ppg range – though, then he starts tracking ahead of Pitlick and we might have a more interesting player on our hands.

    Good post.

    Thanks for that

  39. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe Tyler needs to peculate

    Pretty sure he’ll get thrown out of the organization if he peculates funds lol.

  40. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bling:
    I think we have a good idea of what DC is (and is not) at this point.

    We have a player that struggles defensively, scores at a pedestrian (to put it mildly) clip 5 v 5, and can’t help out on the PK. He doesn’t seem to be a C (FO% 20.8).

    He did score some goals this season, but I wonder if there’s any sustain to that given his shooting percentage of 12.5 percent (7.5 last year). His shot attempt rate actually dropped slightly this season (181/67 vs 172/60). He also had 3 PP goals, and I can’t imagine him being a fixture on a PP run by Manny.

    He’s basically a 4th liner that can’t pitch in on special teams. Is Todd going to continue to give him 13-14 minutes a game?

    I’d move on from him.

    This is what I don’t get. The guy scored 13 goals. You’ve acknowledged he’s a 4th liner. He’s going to get a contract close to league min. Why would you move on from him? I know he sucks defensively. I think it would be negligent to just let him walk without first seeing what the new coaching staff can do. It’s easier to learn defence than to score 13 goals.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 3 years from now the only LHD on the NHL roster who will still be with team is Nurse.

    Imo

    Sure but LT was talking about him playing NHL games this coming season.

  42. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Brain trust is big enough that they could easily take all the prospects out for dinner

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: This is what I don’t get. The guy scored 13 goals. You’ve acknowledged he’s a 4th liner. He’s going to get a contract close to league min. Why would you move on from him? I know he sucks defensively. I think it would be negligent to just let him walk without first seeing what the new coaching staff can do. It’s easier to learn defence than to score 13 goals.

    I think he’ll end up coming in close to double the league minimum, around $1.25M – not saying I agree he should but I think its likely he will.

  44. RonnieB says:

    Just wondering what it would cost in assets out in order to come home from the draft with a RD side of Larsson, Bouchard, Benning ?
    Would #10 + Caggiula + Montoya get you to #6 ?

  45. Bling says:

    Marc:
    I think Pitlick makes an interesting comp for Benson. They were drafted in pretty much the same place. Pitlick was old for his draft cohort and Benson about in the middle of his.

    Pitlick was a NCAA freshman his draft year and scored .5 ppg, which is great for an 18 year old freshman. Draft +1 was a so-so year in the WHL just over 1ppg. Draft +2 he was in the AHL. He scored less than .5 ppg, which isn’t great, but he was a 20 year old in a men’s league, which makes it look a lot more impressive. Three injury plagued AHL seasons followed in which he improved his scoring to around .75 ppg, but didn’t come close to playing a full season in any of them.

    Benson was a 1 ppg player in the WHL his draft year, but only played 30 games due to injury. He improved to just under 1.3 ppg in his draft +1 season, but again lost more than half the season to injury. In his draft +2 season in the WHL he stayed healthyfor the full season, but his offence didn’t improve at all (just over 1.2 ppg), which isn’t great for an overager.

    If Pitlick and Benson were in the same draft class, you’d peg Pitlick as the better prospect through draft +2, as he’s keeping his head above the water in the AHL whereas Benson is treading water in the WHL.

    If Benson settles in as a .5 ppg or less player in his first AHL season, the I think we can safely pencil him in as needing a couple years of AHL seasoning andthe best case scenario is probably him emerging as a useful bottom 6 player like Khaira or Pitlick in a couple years.

    If he’s shows more offense though – in the .5-1 ppg range – though, then he starts tracking ahead of Pitlick and we might have a more interesting player on our hands.

    Benson was not an overager this year. It’s true that he turned 20 in March, but he was 19 years old to begin the season, which makes him age-appropriate for the level. He would not have been eligible to play in the AHL.

    Draft+2, Pitlick (November birthday, first season in the AHL, age 20), scored 23 points in 62 games (0.37 PPG). He did even worse the next season (0.22 PPG). We know the Oilers basically forget about non-superstar prospects the second they leave the podium at the draft, so some of that might be TOI related.

    Benson is interesting. In terms of goals/GP, he went from a rank of 94 two years ago to 48 this year. In terms of primary points/GP, he went from 9th (!!!) two years ago to 33rd this season. His primary points number actually dropped, despite being a year older (1.09 to 0.95).

    Overall, though, I peg Benson as being a much better prospect than Pitlick. Being 9th in the WHL in primary points is significant (Barzal was 7th and 6th his last two seasons; KY was 4th and 10th). This season, he significantly improved his goal scoring. For a player of his type (non-playmaking division), I think this is a positive step.

    I almost view his injury history as a positive — he only underwent sports hernia surgery last off-season, which means he probably won’t be 100% until this upcoming season.

    My prediction is he ends up being a better player than Pitlick.

    It’s definitely an interesting comparison, Marc, and I guess we’ll have to see what happens!

  46. Bling says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Here’s why I move on from Caggiula:

    If his shooting percentage regresses from 12.5 percent to 7.5 percent (his number from two years ago), he’s at 7-8 goals. Okay, now let’s say that this season he doesn’t get any power play time. So he gets dinged again.

    If McLellan uses him as a true 4th liner, he won’t be getting 13-14 minutes per game, either. Where does that put him, goal-wise?

    Aren’t you better off getting a real 4C who can PK, starting Lucic on the 4th line, and then grabbing an upgraded winger for the top 9 (preferably top 6)?

    There can only be so many 5v5 black holes, and Lucic is probably not going anywhere.

  47. Mr DeBakey says:

    RonnieB:
    Just wondering what it would cost in assets out in order to come home from the draft with a RD side of Larsson, Bouchard, Benning ?
    Would #10 + Caggiula + Montoya get you to #6 ?

    An 18-year-old playing D for the Oilers next year?
    That’ll help them win games.

  48. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors
    Verified account
    @Condors45m45 minutes ago
    More
    The Condors have named Dave Manson and J-F Houle as assistant coaches under head coach Jay Woodcroft

    Another WHL coach added by the Oilers. Manson was associate coach under Marc Habscheid in Prince Albert.

    Ronnie gunville the director of PLayer Personel for PA raiders is were I first saw anyone move side to side like a table hockey goalie. Playing street hockey as a kid 40+ years ago.
    He will be part of lead in video for table hockey goalie theory.

    HD dman genetics in the Manson Family!

  49. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bling:
    JimmyV1965,

    Here’s why I move on from Caggiula:

    If his shooting percentage regresses from 12.5 percent to 7.5 percent (his number from two years ago), he’s at 7-8 goals. Okay, now let’s say that this season he doesn’t get any power play time. So he gets dinged again.

    If McLellan uses him as a true 4th liner, he won’t be getting 13-14 minutes per game, either. Where does that put him, goal-wise?

    Aren’t you better off getting a real 4C who can PK, starting Lucic on the 4th line, and then grabbing an upgraded winger for the top 9 (preferably top 6)?

    There can only be so many 5v5 black holes, and Lucic is probably not going anywhere.

    For me you are either an offensive threat or you are a role player. All players need to outscore, but particularly role players need to be defensively responsible first and foremost (because they can’t outscore mistakes) and have to be contributing on special teams.

    Otherwise they are dragging the team down, as we know from years of the Oilers getting caved when Taylor or Connor weren’t on the ice. They do have to add points, but positive goal diff points.

  50. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Trading to move up gives me a bit of the shivers as we’d be trading out multiple assets for a single asset back at a time when we still need to focus on accumulating depth at both the NHL and prospect level.

    Don’t get me wrong, trading up to grab a Hughes or a Whalstrom certainly excites me, however, is the additional asset we’d give up worth it given the general non-consensus after the first couple picks?

    I mean, are we going to give up an additional material assets when there is a decent chance someone like Boquist or Bouchard drop to 10?

    I’d only trade up to 1 or 2 where there is a better chance at a difference maker. It’s too much of a guess and too risky after that. Maybe to 3 as Zadina has some nice attributes as well, but consensus and MHLE doesn’t seem to like him in the same way as Svechnikov.

    Or NHLE

  51. N64 says:

    Jaxon: In a 4F-4D situation that would mean something like this:

    Seattle’s not going to pay 650M for Pollock expansion rules, but the NHL should tweak a bit. E.g. the smallest change would be adding a 5F-4D option alongside 7F-3D and 8 skaters.

  52. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 3 years from now the only LHD on the NHL roster who will still be with team is Nurse.

    Imo

    Well, that’s done it. Now they’ll have to trade him this summer.

  53. Yeti says:

    Jordan: Arpon Basu: The Canadiens appear interested; they were one of three teams to take Kotkaniemi out for dinner in Buffalo, with the Detroit Red Wings (No. 6 overall pick) and Edmonton Oilers (No. 10) the others. (The Athletic)

    Is it me, or did Kotkaniemi eat a lot of dinner at the combine? I hope he chose salads.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    Just wondering what it would cost in assets out in order to come home from the draft with a RD side of Larsson, Bouchard, Benning ?
    Would #10 + Caggiula + Montoya get you to #6 ?

    This could happen by making the pick at 10 (although I wouldn’t pencil Bouchard in to the NHL lineup next year).

    As an aside, no I don’t think Caggulia and Montoya gets you from 10 to 6 – I’m not sure it gets you from 10 to 9.

  55. hunter1909 says:

    Vegas’s team bus just turned orange.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’d only trade up to 1 or 2 where there is a better chance at a difference maker. It’s too much of a guess and too risky after that. Maybe to 3 as Zadina has some nice attributes as well, but consensus and MHLE doesn’t seem to like him in the same way as Svechnikov.

    Or NHLE

    I think I agree with this, 100%.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hell of a period for WSH – with that said, a few inches and Vegas opens the scoring and we have a totally different hockey game. Momentum is a real thing in sport (even if I/we can’t quantify it).

  58. hunter1909 says:

    What’s with all the hate for Keegan Lowe? He seems to have a good head for the game – seems like a pretty decent prospect.

  59. Bad Seed says:

    OriginalPouzar: This could happen by making the pick at 10 (although I wouldn’t pencil Bouchard in to the NHL lineup next year).

    As an aside, no I don’t think Caggulia and Montoya gets you from 10 to 6 – I’m not sure it gets you from 10 to 9.

    More likely it moves you down to 15 from 10!

  60. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hell of a period for WSH – with that said, a few inches and Vegas opens the scoring and we have a totally different hockey game. Momentum is a real thing in sport (even if I/we can’t quantify it).

    I doubt it.

    Vegas are on the ropes, Trotz and Ovechkin are fired up, the fans are howling like a Liverpool FC Cup final crowd, plus that old hockey adage which goes something like: the best players usually win the most games.

  61. hunter1909 says:

    re momentum: Vegas are going to be playing the rest of this series trying to draw for an inside straight.

  62. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909:
    What’s with all the hate for Keegan Lowe? He seems to have a good head for the game – seems like a pretty decent prospect.

    He’s 25 years old. He’s not a prospect.

  63. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Trading to move up gives me a bit of the shivers as we’d be trading out multiple assets for a single asset back at a time when we still need to focus on accumulating depth at both the NHL and prospect level.

    Don’t get me wrong, trading up to grab a Hughes or a Whalstrom certainly excites me, however, is the additional asset we’d give up worth it given the general non-consensus after the first couple picks?

    I mean, are we going to give up an additional material assets when there is a decent chance someone like Boquist or Bouchard drop to 10?

    Keep 10, trade up from 40 for Merkley (#25?). Alternate plan: keep 10 and 40, trade Bear for 25 (would that be enough?). Persson and Berglund are at least as NHL-ready as Bear (2019), so we wouldn’t miss him too much. Sign Benning to a 3-year contract this summer and Merkley should be ready to step in when we lose Benning to Seattle.

    /thread.

  64. ArmchairGM says:

    Keep 10, trade up from 40 for Merkley (#25?). Alternate plan: keep 10 and 40, trade Bear for 25 (would that be enough?). Persson and Berglund are at least as NHL-ready as Bear (2019), so we wouldn’t miss him too much. Sign Benning to a 3-year contract this summer and Merkley should be ready to step in when we lose Benning to Seattle.

    ALSO:

    If 10 is Kotkaniemi, pick Merkley at 25.
    If 10 is a defenseman, pick Bokk at 25… I haven’t researched this area of the draft extensively, so suggestions are welcome.

  65. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: He’s 25 years old. He’s not a prospect.

    My bad. I thought he’d only been drafted 2-3 years ago.

    Now that I’ve had time to think about it, I can now get pissed off like everyone else lol

  66. Professor Q says:

    I wonder just how many goals Ovechkin will end up scoring in this series?

  67. digger50 says:

    Of course Vegas has to godown 3-1 in the series.

    They are goi g to take this underdog story all the way.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: He’s 25 years old. He’s not a prospect.

    and he wasn’t re-signed with the intent of being an Oiler.

    He was re-signed with the intent of doing what he did last year – provide leadership and mentoring, as an AHL veteran, to the young prospects – help show them the ropes of North American professional hockey – provide cover if NHL injuries do pile up (allowing guys like Lagesson and Jones to continue to develop in the proper league and not be forced in to the NHL before they are ready).

    The fact that he was the Condors’ best d-man last year was a bonus.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Keep 10, trade up from 40 for Merkley (#25?). Alternate plan: keep 10 and 40, trade Bear for 25 (would that be enough?). Persson and Berglund are at least as NHL-ready as Bear (2019), so we wouldn’t miss him too much. Sign Benning to a 3-year contract this summer and Merkley should be ready to step in when we lose Benning to Seattle.

    /thread.

    Berglund and Persson may never ever play an NHL game – Berglund is a real prospect and has great arrows but is far from a sure thing. Persson may not even be a real prospect. I don’t know how one can profess that either of them, in particular Persson, is as ready as Bear.

    The 25th overall pick is not worth Ethan Bear (and I’m not certain he’s any more than a 3rd pairing and PP guy).

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Keep 10, trade up from 40 for Merkley (#25?). Alternate plan: keep 10 and 40, trade Bear for 25 (would that be enough?). Persson and Berglund are at least as NHL-ready as Bear (2019), so we wouldn’t miss him too much. Sign Benning to a 3-year contract this summer and Merkley should be ready to step in when we lose Benning to Seattle.

    ALSO:

    If 10 is Kotkaniemi, pick Merkley at 25.
    If 10 is a defenseman, pick Bokk at 25… I haven’t researched this area of the draft extensively, so suggestions are welcome.

    You haven’t researched that area of the draft but are ready to trade Bear for the pick?

  71. rickithebear says:

    PunkInDrublic: The same reason 36% body fat is a thing… an inability or unwillingness to do something about it.

    A reduction in fat often requires a modification in diet and exerted effort to burn calories.

    The real apethy are the people unwilling to take the zero effort required to open thier mind to new ideas.

    Some it took 6-8 years too grasp the truth.
    WOOD you believe the GUYs are stubborn buggers.

    The truly closed minded buggers
    Hold a LEADed position and are unwilling to FARM new ideas. They ER on the side of ignorance.

    Ride the RICKshaw of Knowledge. THEir are those willing to BEAR the burden of taking you up the river of enlightenment. By going against the flow of the masses in LOW TIDE.

  72. Professor Q says:

    Uh oh. The Comeback.©

  73. Professor Q says:

    rickithebear,

    I must profess, you’re okay with the wordplay. Just be a bit more subtle. :p

  74. Jaxon says:

    N64: Seattle’s not going to pay 650M for Pollock expansion rules, but the NHL should tweak a bit. E.g. the smallest change would be adding a 5F-4D option alongside 7F-3D and 8 skaters.

    I’m almost certain the NHL has already indicated the expansion rules will be the same. Now, I guess that could change, but early indicators are that they will be the same.

  75. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon: I’m almost certain the NHL has already indicated the expansion rules will be the same. Now, I guess that could change, but early indicators are that they will be the same.

    Will they be even more favourable for Houston? Will Québec City be even more hindered with a relocation (like some cap penalty to punish them for not paying an expansion fee etc.)?

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: I’m almost certain the NHL has already indicated the expansion rules will be the same. Now, I guess that could change, but early indicators are that they will be the same.

    Yes, they have but its all unofficial – the Seattle franchise hasn’t even been approved yet.

    With that said, given the unofficial verbal, I don’t imagine they stray from it.

  77. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bling:
    JimmyV1965,

    Here’s why I move on from Caggiula:

    If his shooting percentage regresses from 12.5 percent to 7.5 percent (his number from two years ago), he’s at 7-8 goals. Okay, now let’s say that this season he doesn’t get any power play time. So he gets dinged again.

    If McLellan uses him as a true 4th liner, he won’t be getting 13-14 minutes per game, either. Where does that put him, goal-wise?

    Aren’t you better off getting a real 4C who can PK, starting Lucic on the 4th line, and then grabbing an upgraded winger for the top 9 (preferably top 6)?

    There can only be so many 5v5 black holes, and Lucic is probably not going anywhere.

    I don’t want to sound like a jerk, but I’m flabbergasted when people talk about walking away from a guy who scored 13 goals whose cap you can basically bury in the minors if he sucks. I fail to see the logic. And it doesn’t prevent you from getting a 4C. I would much prefer the Drake at $1 mill than Derek Ryan at $2 mill + for multiple years.

  78. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear: A reduction in fat often requires a modification in diet and exerted effort to burn calories.

    The real apethy are the people unwilling to take the zero effort required to open thier mind to new ideas.

    Some it took 6-8 years too grasp the truth.
    WOOD you believe the GUYs are stubborn buggers.

    The truly closed minded buggers
    Hold a LEADed position and are unwilling to FARM new ideas. They ER on the side of ignorance.

    Ride the RICKshaw of Knowledge. THEir are those willing to BEAR the burden of taking you up the river of enlightenment. By going against the flow of the masses in LOW TIDE.

    No Im actually always in favor of new ways of looking at things. Just your idea is bear crap and his disproved many times over. Penguins winning cup twice should have made you shred that theory. Yet you still havent given up.
    This year. SEE THE CUP FINALIST. NO HD TEAMS.
    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&vs=all&loc=B&gpf=82&fd=2018-04-11&td=2018-06-04

    THE CAPITALS WERE LAST IN THE LEAGUE IN HDCF% and 27th In HDGF. Your theory is crap.
    VEGAS was exactly middle of the row in HDGF at 16th and 20th in HDCF%.
    You want some other metric. What about Fenwick. Fine Caps were 27th in that too
    If your metrics had any validity Dallas Stars would have won the cup being the top HD team.
    They didnt make the playoffs

    Now please go to your mythical computer and make an algorithm that explains to bears how to admit they are wrong

  79. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    18-30 NHL games for Benson this coming year?

    Wow, I love me some Tyler Benson but I’m thinking zero NHL games for him – if he’s in the NHL, its likely due to a continued lack of depth at the NHL level.

    I believe Tyler needs to peculate – maybe I’m wrong and he proves to have a 2-way game worthy of the NHL as a rookie pro – seems like a stretch though, no?

    With full off season to train properly, I’m betting Benson comes to push the river come September,and may open a lot of eyes.

  80. Danny29 says:

    Just putting pen to paper.

    If Hughes or Wahlstrom is available at 6 I trade 10 plus whatever I have to and select the one available or else at 10 I’d select Boqvist or Kotkaniemi, if none are available I trade back into the middle and select Merkley or Smith. Using 10 or 6 and If Merkley drops Into the 20’s I’m all over it and spend the moon. If I’m stuck in the middle with none of the above I trade out and try to pick something up, Ideally Dylan strome and max domi for middle pick and some more parts to make it work from the forwards.

    Draft strategy.

  81. Munny says:

    The thing about Cags is that you hope we can do better. Thus far he’s been meh, and while I like the bet, we haven’t rolled sevens and at some point you have to hand the dice over to another shooter.

    University kids out of 2nd tier are worthwhile bets but you have to make a lot of them to have a chance of hitting it big with one. Next!

    Now obviously showing it younger is better than older. Marody was same points draft+3 as Cags was draft+4. Was actually drafted. Was worth a roster player.

    I bet Marody will be a better Caggiula. I’m thinking that’s the plan. Give him some AHL time to adjust, though, of course.

    I’d keep Rattie up before Cags. While we’re waiting for Cooper. Now that’s a hockey name. Born to it.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: With full off season to train properly, I’m betting Benson comes to push the river come September,and may open a lot of eyes.

    Here is hoping – seems like a fairly optimistic projection for his first year pro but we can hope.

  83. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: You haven’t researched that area of the draft but are ready to trade Bear for the pick?

    It was a suggestion, looking for further suggestions. Your input wasn’t particularly helpful, I must say.

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Berglund and Persson may never ever play an NHL game – Berglund is a real prospect and has great arrows but is far from a sure thing.Persson may not even be a real prospect.I don’t know how one can profess that either of them, in particular Persson, is as ready as Bear.

    According to Rob Vollman the SHL is a much better league than the AHL – 22.6% better, in fact. The fact that Persson and Berglund are top defensemen in a better league makes me think they are better players than Bear, and I like Bear.

    It’s not the whole story, but:

    Persson 32.6 NHLE
    Berglund 14.4 NHLE and was a stud defensively, especially in the playoffs
    Bear 18.2 actual NHL points projection, sieve defensively

    I’m not sure how anyone could project Bear as an NHLer but conclude that Berglund “may never play an NHL game”.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    There are loads and loads of top players in the top European leagues, KHL and SEL that aren’t able to make it in the NHL. Being a top player in the SEL does not necessarily translate to success in the National Hockey League.

    I’m a big fan of Berglund and believe he will have an NHL career and am pulling for him but I think its a stretch to say he was a top d-man in the SHL. He had a great development year, earning more ice time and trust of his coach – I think its safe to say that, by the end of the year, he was one of the top d-men on his team but he was not an elite/top end d-man in the league.

    Persson is a 24 year old that came out of nowhere and had a great season in the SHL but he does not have a history of high end hockey or pedigree. It would not be surprising at all if he had a step-back year. Here is hoping he proves to be the real deal but its far from a surety and an NHL career if far from a lock.

    I’m not as high on Ethan Bear as many, however, he has already played 18 NHL games and, while he showed that he’s not quite ready for an every day NHL job, he showed some skills that are absolutely NHL ready and its highly likely he will have an NHL career. Not to mention he’s a year younger than Berglund and 4 years younger the Persson.

    I’m confident in saying that the 20 year old who has already played a quarter of an NHL season (albeit prematurely) is more NHL ready than the 21 and 24 year old prospects in the SHL.

    I’m also confident that I would not trade the almost NHL ready Ethan Bear, with some fairly decent offensive potential, for a bottom end 1st round pick in the 2018 NHL draft.

  86. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Ethan Bear has some tantalizing skills as we all saw last season, but his skating needs a lot of work IMO. I saw him lose his balance skating backwards at least twice last year and that is a red flag to me. He was easily the best AHL D prospect last year, but this year it could be Jones or Lagesson (who I think will turn heads this year – he was impressive in Penticton – I think he is very close to NHL ready). In my estimation Bear is 2 yrs away from time in the NHL, he clearly is not an NHL Dman today, but now he knows what the speed of the NHL game is and knows what he needs to work on.

    I am a big fan of Bear, but if he gets you Merkeley, who is also at least 2-3 years from the NHL, you do that deal every time. I doubt most NHL teams would do it though. Also, Ethan Bear might net a 5th round pick, although if you are dealing with a team like Vegas who has a shit-ton of 3rd rounders you might be able to do a deal for a 3rd, but you’d have to add a 5th rounder most likely. As a RHD with a WHL Top Dman awad he has some cachet as a prospect aound the league, I am sure.

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m a big fan of Berglund and believe he will have an NHL career and am pulling for him but I think its a stretch to say he was a top d-man in the SHL. He had a great development year, earning more ice time and trust of his coach – I think its safe to say that, by the end of the year, he was one of the top d-men on his team but he was not an elite/top end d-man in the league.

    I didn’t make that up, talk to SwedishPoster if you disagree. Berglund was an absolute stud in the playoffs according to SP, and I trust his judgement in this regard. If I recall correctly he led the league in +/- prior to the finals, +14 in 12 games.

    Berglund’s offence is also underrated by the numbers, because (as I understand it) he doesn’t get much – if any – PP time.

  88. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Persson is a 24 year old that came out of nowhere and had a great season in the SHL but he does not have a history of high end hockey or pedigree.

    I don’t give a shit about pedigree and neither should you – especially 6 years post draft. Caring about “pedigree” got us Griffen Reinhart.

    OriginalPouzar: I’m confident in saying that the 20 year old who has already played a quarter of an NHL season (albeit prematurely) is more NHL ready than the 21 and 24 year old prospects in the SHL.

    Bear is ONE MONTH YOUNGER than Berglund, May birthday vs June. You posting their actual ages above is you trying to obfuscate by making it seem Bear has an advantage as a prospect. And playing in the NHL doesn’t prove him more ready, it simply means Berglund WASN’T AVAILABLE to be called up. But you knew that aleady, it’s just more deflection.

  89. Jaxon says:

    Munny:
    The thing about Cags is that you hope we can do better. Thus far he’s been meh, and while I like the bet, we haven’t rolled sevens and at some point you have to hand the dice over to another shooter.

    University kids out of 2nd tier are worthwhile bets but you have to make a lot of them to have a chance of hitting it big with one. Next!

    Now obviously showing it younger is better than older. Marody was same points draft+3 as Cags wasdraft+4.Was actually drafted.Was worth a roster player.

    I bet Marody will be a better Caggiula. I’m thinking that’s the plan.Give him some AHL time to adjust, though, of course.

    I’d keep Rattie up before Cags. While we’re waiting for Cooper.Now that’s a hockey name. Born to it.

    I think we’re getting what should have been expected from Caggiula. Here is what my research into his numbers found right after they signed him:

    “Gives us a close look at what Caggiula might become. When I was looking for comparables for Caggiula in the summer, Fontaine was one of his closest.

    From Sept. 26, 2016 comments:
    http://oilersnation.com/2016/9/26/monday-mailbag-what-do-you-expect-from-puljujarvi/trash

    “Caggiula, although he was one of the best available college players, he is still an undrafted player and is 22 years old. His 44 pt NHLE as a 21 year old in the NCAA and being in the 5’9”, 185 lbs range makes his closest comparables Cam Atkinson, JT Brown and Justin Fontaine at the same age. None of them even made the NHL full time in their 22 year old season. Also remember that he had phenomenal linemates as well so his stats may be a bit padded. I think we’re all a bit high on him and need to bring our expectations down to earth. I don’t think he’ll be Marchand or Gallagher, both who were scoring at a higher pace at a younger age.

    Drake: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=97396

    Cam: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=19166

    JT: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=37802

    Justin: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=24903“

    And on Lowetide on August 16, 2016:
    https://lowetide.ca/2016/08/16/training-camp-hopeful-no-8-drake-caggiula/

    “Here is the comparables I’ve compiled for Drake. After reviewing the numbers of players who went through the college system and who are similar in size to Drake, I think his closest comparables are JT Brown, Cam Atkinson and Justin Fontaine. Palmieri comparisons also pop up in interesting spots. Drake looks like he has developed better than players like Letestu, Read and Sheary. Drake also falls short of comparisons to Gaudreau (obviously), Cammalleri, Gionta, Cogliano, and Schwartz.

    If he can keep pace with Cam Atkinson, then the Oilers have a great player on their hands. Atkinson spent his Draft+5 season mostly in the AHL, then jumped to the NHL with paces of 42, 42, 42 and 54 pts in his last 4 seasons. His AHL NHLE pace was 43 points. Atkinson has certainly been consistent and has been a coveted player mentioned in many Oiler fan trade proposals in the past few years.

    If he develops like JT Brown he will be a useful depth player. Brown spent his Draft+5 season in the AHL and has since played his last 3 seasons in the NHL with paces of 25, 14, 23.

    Justin Fontaine took a bit longer than the rest. He spent another season in college and 2 more seasons mostly in the AHL before finally playing in the NHL in his Draft+8 season. His first 3 seasons he scored at paces of 26, 36 and 22.

    I think we can hope for Atkinson but be satisfied with a solid depth player if he becomes Brown or Fontaine. Notice none of his close comparables played their first season after college mostly in the NHL. They all needed some AHL time first. Atkinson and Brown both played 51 AHL games. Brown did not play any NHL games in his draft+5 season while Atkinson made it into 27 games where he scored 7 goals and 7 assists (43 point pace, notice a pattern?). Both Brown and Atkinson also split their time in their Draft+6 Seasons, but both played more NHL games than AHL games. In their Draft+7 seasons they became full time NHLers.

    Link:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kWvJ86DgSmErCIPCKW18WKpovDLG0piZYzwFglzJseU/edit?usp=sharing

  90. rickithebear says:

    Leadfarmer:
    I read your response in last post.

    I have stayed in the past that I have pointed out huge flaws in Corsica hockey’, mat stat trick, pugIQ
    Aproach to theories.

    You need a mechanism as a referential measure of play not players and some uneducated arbitrary decision.

    Thier selections of reference creates natural biases that cater to the result they want.
    They do not differentiate based on the true mechanics that is performed by positional players.

    All of these arbitrary choices force a natural movement to regression.
    A completely flawed regression.

    You must break up your data to situational norms.
    Not some subjective stupid arbitrary line in the sand.
    There is a identified start point and end for a measure.

    Rule 1 if you are using a % for differentiation data.
    You are fooling yourself.
    Cause the same GF% can have different +/- Goal differentials.
    The +/- is accurate the % is grade school mistakes.

    If love to quote %.
    Then your starting point lacks even the most basic understanding of accurate reference measure.
    It is embarrassingly awful.

    Most on here have not broken down the play at a binary mechanical level.

    So you use % rather than true data.
    Most on here use improper data provided by in correct data bases.
    Ex. PugIQ differentiates to 3 levels. Of comp.

    A true performance measure requires a situational differentiation of comp, team, ZS adjustment.
    512 groups.of similaiar ruled seasons with all but equal GF seasons.

    05-06 is its own
    06-07 & 17-18 are like goal paced seasons.
    07-08 to 11-12 & 13-14 to 16-17 are like goal paced seasons.
    12-13 should just be ignored.

    You end up with a mean for each and ranges performed around it.

    What you need to do is identify start and end to mechanism that all but elimates situational affect.
    While identifying the most important goal diff ratios by play.

    Here is the key!
    What none of you get!
    You identify the the best +ve & worst -ve of those mechanisms.
    Identify the players in the 512 given situations.that can have a goal diff base from +26 and -26.
    Then you take the players with the best and worst situational rates.
    Identify that skills range change relative to the situational base.

    So thier is no regression to a mean. Thier are countless permutations of a players expected mean.
    A top 10 HD dman in a situation with -26 goal diff average will not regress to the same # as a bottom 10 HD man in that same -26 situation.
    A top 10 HD dman that is in a -15 goal diff avg situation will not regress to tha same number as a top 10 HD Dman in a +15 goal diff avg situation.

    I have stated from day 1 PDO is utter bullshit and that permutations are not counted for by that stupid theory.

    The mechanics of affect is the same but the -15 versus +15 start dictates that performance numbers will not match and range affect of play will not be the same in each situation caysevone is easier.

    What scientist thinks Equal mechanism forces will have the same change when load is different for both.

    None of you differentiate at that level.

    So when I see a data base that uses my data.created by people who think PDO is of any value.
    It lies to the data truth.

    Then I have you quote me a % from a database with zero proper reference.
    With zero base defined.

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