Little Deuce Coupe

by Lowetide

If you’re piecing together the “training camp hopeful” list for this fall (guilty as charged) Cooper Marody makes the list without a throw. His scouting report (ISS had him No. 83 in 2015, saying “skilled centre shows high-end creativity” called his skating very good and noted he needed to work on his defensive game) was strong in his draft year and he closed like a demon in his final college season (as a junior). How much will he play?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your coffee. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

CONDORS FORWARDS, FINAL 18 GAMES 2017-18

This is March 1 through the end of the season (18 games, Condors went 9-6-3) and the team was turning over a lot of forwards. I’ve included everyone 23 and under who acted like a prospect and it’s a fun list.

  • Cooper Marody played just three games but looked very good in that short span. He had seven shots in the three games and was effective on the power play. There are 68 AHL games in a Condors season, suspect Marody will see 5-10 games in the NHL if he performs well in the minors.
  • Tyler Benson is going to get a helluva push by the organization if he can score/check in the AHL. The Oilers haven’t deployed a rookie forward in a feature role at the AHL in ages. According to prospect-stats.com, Jesse Puljujarvi was estimated to have averaged 14:21 5×5 time on ice as a rookie, I bet Tyler Benson gets more time that JP did as a rookie pro under Jay Woodcroft. My guess is Benson could see 18-30 NHL games in the coming season if things go well and I’m damned certain he’ll play with a quality AHL center.
  • Tyler Vesel also came in late and had some success. I’m not sure what to make of him, but will guess he doesn’t see the NHL in 2017-18.
  • Joe Gambardella finished well and I think he’s got a chance to see the NHL, but only for a few games. He’s an older prospect and (like Vesel, or Drake Caggiula) should be close to big league time the moment he turned pro.
  • Kailer Yamamoto (who hasn’t played in the AHL) will be in the mix for an NHL job in training camp. Even if he doesn’t make it out of camp, I expect we’ll see him in the NHL for 40+ games this coming year. As an aside, whenever I talk about Yamamoto playing in the NHL next season the push back from readers is incredible. Please understand I’m not trying to irritate you but am calling it as I see it.

CONDORS DEFENSE, FINAL 18 GAMES 2017-18

  • Ethan Bear should see NHL time, he had 18 games in 2017-18 and might get an equal amount this coming season. Could he get into 25-30? I think that might be a stretch but we’ll see.
  • William Lagesson will be new to North American pro hockey this winter, but I can see him getting into some NHL games.
  • Caleb Jones had a tough rookie season but he has great boots and will be a year older. He should get at least a look during the campaign.

There will be dozens of little pieces like this out there over the next while, we won’t know if NHL teams have taken a player off their draft boards until draft weekend. It can work out for a team with some iron though. Cam Fowler was free falling in his draft year, Anaheim stepped up and got a fine player at an excellent spot.

KOTKANIEMI

  • Arpon Basu: The Canadiens appear interested; they were one of three teams to take Kotkaniemi out for dinner in Buffalo, with the Detroit Red Wings (No. 6 overall pick) and Edmonton Oilers (No. 10) the others. (The Athletic)

Another thing we’ll see in the next couple of weeks occurs here with Mr. Basu’s verbal on Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Montreal badly needs a center, but there are more prominent players available. Moving up in the draft is a blessing, but it also offers some difficulties. One thing we can probably conclude? The Finn will be off the board by No. 10 overall. While I am suggesting good draft reading, there’s a dynamite article from Fluto Shinzawa at The Athletic about using analytics to project players. Michael Schuckers and his work are profiled, he’s a well known contributor and author in the field.

A REMINDER

In reading the summer discourse I’m seeing some thoughts popping up that don’t make a lot of sense. I thought it might be an idea to go back to the math of the 2017-18 season and refresh our memories on who accomplished what last winter. I always look at 5×5 scoring per 60, it’s pure and gives us a strong indication about what forwards were doing. It isn’t perfect, because McDavid was zooming some of these cats, and other cats were playing against the soft parade. That said, it gives us a line in the sand. A reminder, my line goes like this:

  • 2.00+ A solid-to-quality first line player, or a very productive second line forward.
  • 1.75-1.99 A solid to quality second line player, or an overachieving third/fourth liner earning a trip up the depth chart.
  • 1.50-1.74 A productive bottom six forward or a top 6 forward in a little danger of losing his role
  • 1.30-1.49 Solid role player on a support line or a badly struggling top 6 forward
  • Everything else is fringe.

Top Drawer

  1. Connor McDavid 3.17. The best hockey player on planet earth.
  2. Ty Rattie 2.49. How much can he score alongside 97 over a full season?
  3. Leon Draisaitl 2.29. A quality player transitioning to No. 2 C and unfettered success.

The Second Drawer

  1. Pontus Aberg 1.99.  There’s a job opening on a good line, can he grab it?
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.96. A productive player who may spike offensively this coming season.
  3. Mike Cammalleri 1.80.  Veteran was productive, may no return.
  4. Patrick Maroon 1.76. He fit like a glove on McDavid’s line, the only issue was price.

The Middle Drawer

  • None

The Fourth Drawer

  1. Ryan Strome 1.46.  Just missed a ‘productive’ season by my metric, he was solid.
  2. Jujhar Khaira 1.38. Fits the solid role player definition perfectly.
  3. Milan Lucic 1.30. Fits the badly struggling top 6 forward perfectly.

The Bottom Drawer

  1. Zack Kassian 1.29. Just missed solid support player, that’s what he is.
  2. Anton Slepyshev 1.26. He didn’t score enough, that injury cost him.
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi 1.25. He flourished, then struggled, but what a skill set.
  4. Mark Letestu 1.16. His productivity was subpar for the role.
  5. Drake Caggiula 1.16. There isn’t enough offense here.
  6. Iiro Pakarinen 0.52. Great penalty killer.
  7. Kailer Yamamoto 0.50. He had myriad chances, similar to Leon in his draft +1.

It’s important to remember these things, because the more distance between the season and the current moment, the more we allow our minds to wander. Milan Lucic could improve a lot and still be a drag on a top line, for instance. Jujhar Khaira was productive but it isn’t reasonable to place him in a feature role. Drake Caggiula should not be a top option for the 97 line on RW.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show with a lot going on. At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN & The Athletic. Game Four SCF, can the Capitals widen the lead? Also, Phil Kessel’s future.
  • Max Bultman, covers the Detroit Tigers for The Athletic. We’ll chat draft and Tigers.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Eskimos have some questions, Oilers at the draft.
  • Keegan Matheson, Baseball Toronto. Jays draft and Vladdy Jr’s injury.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Jaxon

Continued from yesterday’s discussion Re: my understanding of NMCs, NTCs, as they pertain to Russell and a possible June 2002 Expansion draft

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/kris-russell

2018-19 NMC
2019-20 Modified NTC, NMC
2020-21 Modified NTC, NMC
CLAUSE DETAILS: 2019-20: Player submits a 10 team trade list. 2020-21: Player submits a 15 team trade list.

https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#nmc

“The clause can travel with the player even if he consents to being traded or is claimed on waivers (waivers are not applicable in NMCs)
This requires that the acquiring team sign an addendum to the contract ensuring that the clause does in fact travel with the player (written by the player’s agent)
If the acquiring team refuses to sign the addendum, and the player waives his clause anyway, at that point the clause may be nullified”

SEASON CAP SAVE BUYOUT CAP HIT
2018-19 $3,388,889 $611,111 – this represents huge cap savings for the upcoming season when they may need it most, especially if they want to go after any substantial players via trade or free agency.
2019-20 $2,888,889 $1,111,111
2020-21 $388,889 $3,611,111
2021-22 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111
2022-23 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111
2023-24 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111

TRADE NOW
To trade Russell anytime between now and July 1st, 2019, they’ll need to ask Russell to waive his NMC. Now, Russell and his agent can request that the condition of waiving his NMC be that the other team retains it and it travels with him to the new team. If the team refuses to sign then the trade would not happen unless Russell agrees to waive it anyway and lose his NMC and therefore risk being exposed in the expansion draft. I really doubt Russell would agree to this and I doubt the acquiring team would take on a NMC if he doesn’t agree. Therefore it would seem he is untradable before July 1st, 2019.

TRADE BETWEEN JULY 1st, 2019 to June 18th-ish, 2020 (date possible protected lists must be submitted)
During this time Russell has a Modified NTC and a NMC. He cannot be sent down or waived and he must be protected. If requested by Edmonton, he must submit a 10 team trade list. If they find a fit and he is traded, the acquiring team would be taking on the exact same contract, as Russell has not had to waive anything. Therefore his NMC travels with him. Which means they will have to protect him in the expansion draft. There may be some teams willing to do this but if Russell doesn’t want to be traded I’m sure he can submit a list of 10 teams who already have 3 or more quality D that need to be protected. If he is willing to go to Calgary maybe he submits Calgary and 9 other teams which need to protect 3 or 4 D already.

It’s hard to do a crystal ball as some players won’t re-sign with their current clubs, but they will sign new players they value, so it should be a similar situation whenever it happens.

Ex.)
1. ANA Fowler, Lindholm, Montour, Manson
2. NSH Ekholm, Josi, Ellis, Subban
3. CAR Slavin, Faulk, Pesce, Hanifin, Fleury, van Riemsdyk
4. PHI Provorov, Gostisbehere, Gudas, Sanheim
5. CBJ Jones, Werenski, Savard
6. DAL Klingberg, Lindell, Pateryn
7. MTL Weber, Reilly, Petry (NMC), Alzner, Juulsen
8. WPG Byfuglien, Trouba, Morrisey
9. CGY Giordano, Hamilton, Hamonic, Brodie
10. PIT Letang (NMC), Dumoulin, Maatta, Schultz
11. WSH Orlov, Niskanen, Carlson
12. NYR Shattenkirk (NMC), Staal (NMC), Pionk, Skjei
13. SJS Burns, Vlasic (NMC), Braun
14. FLA Ekblad, Yandle (NMC), Matheson
15. CHI Keith (NMC), Seabrook (NMC), Gustafsson
16. LAK Doughty, Martinez, Phaneuf (NMC), Forbort, Muzzin
17. STL Pietrangelo, Parayko, Edmundson
18. TBL Hedman, Stralman, Dotchin, Sergachev
19. MIN Suter (NMC), Brodin, Dumba, Spurgeon
20. TOR Gardiner, Zaitsev, Rielly

That’s already more work than I was hoping to put into this post, but I think it illustrates just how many teams Russell and his agent will be able to find with a few days research that will find his NMC a non-starter. I’d argue almost every player listed here is more valuable than Russell. Not to mention that Russell’s cap hit is substantial enough to scare a few cap-crunched teams away.

JUNE 18, 2020 PROTECTED LISTS:
If they can’t get rid of them by June 18th, 2020, then they will have to protect him.

In a 7F-3D situation that would mean something like this:
Lucic (NMC), McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Puljujarvi, Khaira, Strome
Nurse, Larsson, Russell (NMC)
They lose Klefbom (or Sekera, but he’s probably traded in June 2019) in this scenario.

In a 4F-4D situation that would mean something like this:
Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, Russell (NMC)
Lucic (NMC), McDavid, Draisaitl, and one of Nugent-Hopkins or Puljujarvi
They lose Nugent-Hopkins or Puljujarvi in this scenario.

If they buyout Russell on June 17th, 2020, they can do this:
Lucic (NMC), McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Puljujarvi, Khaira, Strome
Nurse, Larsson, Klefbom
They lose someone like Benning in this scenario, which is much more acceptable.

SEASON CAP SAVE BUYOUT CAP HIT
2020-21 $1,000,000 $3,000,000
2021-22 -$500,000 $500,000

Personally, I’d be okay with buying him out now to save cap space in an offseason where they really need it. Not sure why Pouliot was bought out last summer when they didn’t really need the space. Plus they could have used his PK ability and some scoring depth on the wings. Okay, slightly off topic. but it would make buying out Russell now a bit more palatble as it would be the only buyout on the books.

Ideally, any RHD they acquire would be short-term deals expiring before the expansion draft or for players who have yet to play 10 North American professional games (while on an NHL contract) as of today so they won’t need to be protected in the expansion draft. (If I understand the eligibility rules correctly)

jake70

Jaxon, good work. Just where did Russell get the leverage for that contract (term, money, NMC)….certainly had to be more than Sekera’s injury.

jake70

Lucic in 4th drawer….not good. Maybe sooner rather than later, get him in the Ryan Smyth role? Encourage him to spend as much time as possible tipping pucks (is there a puck shooting machine like in baseball, he could set it up at home and practice).

John Chambers

LT,

I see Marody as a more ready prospect than Yamamoto, and possibly a better player than Rattie. For those reasons I could see him making the team out of camp and working his way up the depth chart on RW.

Funny, he could play anywhere from AHL 1C, to 4RW, to 1RW. Fascinating player to follow come autumn.

Jaxon

I’ll repost this for anyone who might have missed it yesterday:

I’ve compiled a spreadsheet of Rankings, and what I consider Consensus lists and Mock drafts. It shows a pretty good picture of the range of each draft pick and how the draft might go in the mocks. I hope it’s okay to show these. Please do go to the website for each list and read their scouting reports and methodology.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

A good way to see a player’s range is to simply hit “command”-F for find and it will highlight every instance of that player.

There are tabs at the bottom: Rankings, Consensus, Mocks.

I will try to add as new rankings, mocks and consensus lists become available. Let me know if there are any reputable sources I should include.

russ99

Having no middle drawer players is the big issue with this roster, not to mention there’s very few players below that level that look to jump up.

Biggus Dickus

It’s weird how fast young guys can rack up the gp. It felt like bear was only here for a few games. Guess I blocked out just how much garbage time there was this season.

doritogrande

Montreal badly needs a center, but there are more prominent players available.

Not sure if I read the pre-amble wrong but Pronman’s article for The Athletic had Jesperi as the 4th best prospect numerically. He may be in that range after all, and we’re seeing a late spike we haven’t seen since Ryan Johansen/OEL.

Worth noting he had Dobson and Bouchard in the mid-teens, which was surprising to me.

Durag

This article really highlights the infuriating discrepancy between the good work Chiarelli is doing at the AHL level and the bad work he is doing at the NHL level. It seems like he really needs a strong assistant GM who has the chops to be a GM in his own right. Who is the Trent Yawney of GMs?

Rondo

doritogrande,

Possible 2 centers will go in the top 10.

russ99

Durag:
This article really highlights the infuriating discrepancy between the good work Chiarelli is doing at the AHL level and the bad work he is doing at the NHL level. It seems like he really needs a strong assistant GM who has the chops to be a GM in his own right. Who is the Trent Yawney of GMs?

No good work is being done at the AHL level, other than the new prospects that came up the last month of the year and a fluke fed McDavid garbage time in Rattie, who may or may not stick at the NHL level next year.

IMO we had a year off from player development, other than Bear, Jones and maybe Gambardella.

Last July we signed a bunch of AHL lifers to fill in the Bakersfield roster, and payed little attention to the NHL roster, and the lack of support that Puljujavi was given at Bakersfield was borderline criminal.

If anything, we need to fire MacTavish and Howson who were in charge of the AHL level and likely orchestrated most of those signings. We need to bring in a real assistant GM running an AHL team focusing on player developement like Pittsburgh does, instead of old boy hangers-on running a team out with overage grinders.

Fuge Udvar

Durag,

We potentially have that assistant GM already in Keith Gretzky. Don’t let his last name fool you. He is here on merit. Had an excellent track record as director of scouting for Boston (Pasternak, McAvoy, DeBrusk, Heinen, Carlo) and so far his draft last year here looks pretty good. No GM experience but looks like he could he in the Todd Nelson spot for GMs.

12 percent body fat

why is Caggulia a thing?

Kinger_Oil.redux

Lowetide:
Bakersfield Condors
Verified account
@Condors45m45 minutes ago
More
The Condors have named Dave Manson and J-F Houle as assistant coaches under head coach Jay Woodcroft

Another WHL coach added by the Oilers. Manson was associate coach under Marc Habscheid in Prince Albert.

– Manson coached Drai in WHL: he coached him up pretty well: encouraging stuff

Professor Q

Really nice Bouchard article in The Athletic by Scott Wheeler (I was working all weekend so I only got to it now).

Check it out if you are willing!

Any possible draft coverage collaborations coming up in The Athletic, Mr. Lowetide?

PunkInDrublic

36 percent body fat:
why is Caggulia a thing?

The same reason 36% body fat is a thing… an inability or unwillingness to do something about it.

Scungilli Slushy

Jaxon: This requires that the acquiring team sign an addendum to the contract ensuring that the clause does in fact travel with the player (written by the player’s agent)
If the acquiring team refuses to sign the addendum, and the player waives his clause anyway, at that point the clause may be nullified”

I think the pertinent part here is the acquiring team has to agree to take the movement clause.

When the Limited NTC kicks in the Oilers have the right to trade him, without his consent, to one of his ten teams in the first year that activates, whether or not the acquiring team accepts the clause.

In the case they ask him to waive he has control over the situation entirely, so he can stipulate that the acquiring team has to take his movement clause which of course makes things much more difficult.

Bling

I think we have a good idea of what DC is (and is not) at this point.

We have a player that struggles defensively, scores at a pedestrian (to put it mildly) clip 5 v 5, and can’t help out on the PK. He doesn’t seem to be a C (FO% 20.8).

He did score some goals this season, but I wonder if there’s any sustain to that given his shooting percentage of 12.5 percent (7.5 last year). His shot attempt rate actually dropped slightly this season (181/67 vs 172/60). He also had 3 PP goals, and I can’t imagine him being a fixture on a PP run by Manny.

He’s basically a 4th liner that can’t pitch in on special teams. Is Todd going to continue to give him 13-14 minutes a game?

I’d move on from him.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, if I had to put my money on a lesser talked about player (i.e not Yamamoto) making the team out of camp, it would be on Cooper. I think he breaks camp as a Condor (on the assumption that a veteran 4C is signed on the cheap to give Khaira some cover and the ability to play LW in the middle 6) but I have much more hope for him than Brad Malone or Joe G.

I watched 3 Michigan games after the trade and I was pleasantly surprised with Marody. He was more skilled than I anticipated and was an “all tools” type of guy trusted by his coach in all situations. Yes, he was older than most on the team but he looked good. He also have a very good short stretch in Bakersfield at the end of the season, accumulating some points and being the best player on the ice (from accounts) in a couple of the games.

He may never play in the NHL but he’s more of a “real prospect” than I figured when we made the trade and, as the final piece of the Maroon deadline deal, I consider the deal a good one for Chiarelli.

Jordan


Arpon Basu: The Canadiens appear interested; they were one of three teams to take Kotkaniemi out for dinner in Buffalo, with the Detroit Red Wings (No. 6 overall pick) and Edmonton Oilers (No. 10) the others. (The Athletic)

Does anyone know if there is a complete list of players who were interviewed and/or taken to dinner by the Oilers? Presumably it exists, I just don’t know if it’s public.

Thanks!

OriginalPouzar

I wonder if Safin is going to play in the Q next year or in the AHL?

Given he was drafted to the NHL from Europe and prior to being take by SJ in the import draft, he is eligible to play in the AHL as a teenager and his contract would slide if he does.

Normally I would say that the AHL is almost always the better league to develop in but maybe its best for Safin to go back to junior? Of course, I would only support him going back to St. John if they acquired some offensive help for him – he was on an island offensively after Valeno was traded at the deadline – they often dressed 10 forwards and had Safin, a winger, playing center.

Scungilli Slushy

russ99: No good work is being done at the AHL level, other than the new prospects that came up the last month of the year and a fluke fed McDavid garbage time in Rattie, who may or may not stick at the NHL level next year.

IMO we had a year off from player development, other than Bear, Jones and maybe Gambardella.

Last July we signed a bunch of AHL lifers to fill in the Bakersfield roster, and payed little attention to the NHL roster, and the lack of support that Puljujavi was given at Bakersfield was borderline criminal.

If anything, we need to fire MacTavish and Howson who were in charge of the AHL level and likely orchestrated most of those signings. We need to bring in a real assistant GM running an AHL team focusing on player developement like Pittsburgh does, instead of old boy hangers-on running a team out with overage grinders.

As always they focus on the wrong things. It was put out there many times they wanted a ‘winning culture’ which I’m sure was a reaction to the cluster they created in the NHL. Thing is you can’t learn to win watching other players do it, kids need to play their mistakes out were it matters less.

Durag

I saw Lennart Petrell in Pampa once. That’s my Finnish Hockey Players Eating Out in Edmonton story.

pts2pndr

Bling:
I think we have a good idea of what DC is (and is not) at this point.

We have a player that struggles defensively, scores at a pedestrian (to put it mildly) clip 5 v 5, and can’t help out on the PK. He doesn’t seem to be a C (FO% 20.8).

He did score some goals this season, but I wonder if there’s any sustain to that given his shooting percentage of 12.5 percent (7.5 last year). His shot attempt rate actually dropped slightly this season (181/67 vs 172/60). He also had 3 PP goals, and I can’t imagine him being a fixture on a PP run by Manny.

He’s basically a 4th liner that can’t pitch in on special teams. Is Todd going to continue to give him 13-14 minutes a game?

I’d move on from him.

I would have moved on on Todd! Same cook expect the same recipe! Get to love you some Cagguila!

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar:
I wonder if Safin is going to play in the Q next year or in the AHL?

Given he was drafted to the NHL from Europe and prior to being take by SJ in the import draft, he is eligible to play in the AHL as a teenager and his contract would slide if he does.

Normally I would say that the AHL is almost always the better league to develop in but maybe its best for Safin to go back to junior? Of course, I would only support him going back to St. John if they acquired some offensive help for him – he was on an island offensively after Valeno was traded at the deadline – they often dressed 10 forwards and had Safin, a winger, playing center.

It is far better to play a winger at center than vice versa. The player gets to learn defensive coverage and the importance of the back check quicker. Playing JP in the AHL without an offensive center was an exersize in futility ! You can not score if you don’t rouch the puck! Not the way to increase a young offensive players confidence. Almost as bad as McLellan playing him on the fourth line!

OriginalPouzar

18-30 NHL games for Benson this coming year?

Wow, I love me some Tyler Benson but I’m thinking zero NHL games for him – if he’s in the NHL, its likely due to a continued lack of depth at the NHL level.

I believe Tyler needs to peculate – maybe I’m wrong and he proves to have a 2-way game worthy of the NHL as a rookie pro – seems like a stretch though, no?

OriginalPouzar

I’m excited to see what Samorukov will do in Guelph this season with McFadden graduated to the pro game. He was blocked by McFadden and Merkley for minutes and PP minutes last year. He should see a minutes, and PP minutes, spike and I think he’s going to put up some nice numbers.

OriginalPouzar

Lagesson is a wild card for me. Ordinarily, I would think zero chance at the NHL in his first season back from Sweden. With that said, he has played in N. America before and I have a feeling about him similar to my feeling about Maroday.

I really liked what I saw from Lagesson at the prospects camp and the rookie tournament game – he was a much better skater and puck mover than I anticipated. From all accounts, just a great season in the SEL – a huge spike in ice time and trust from his coach and that’s a key stat.

He’s quite blocked at left D but I’m hopeful for this prospect.

OriginalPouzar

Trading to move up gives me a bit of the shivers as we’d be trading out multiple assets for a single asset back at a time when we still need to focus on accumulating depth at both the NHL and prospect level.

Don’t get me wrong, trading up to grab a Hughes or a Whalstrom certainly excites me, however, is the additional asset we’d give up worth it given the general non-consensus after the first couple picks?

I mean, are we going to give up an additional material assets when there is a decent chance someone like Boquist or Bouchard drop to 10?

RT26

Even though Russell has a NMC, I think there are teams and places he might agree to be moved to. For instance, what if we traded him to Calgary for Frolik or Michael Stone? Frolik would give us some experience in the bottom 6 (maybe a third line of Lucic-Khaira/ Strome – Frolik).

If not Frolik, Stone would give us a RHD for two years while we let this year’s draft pick or Ethan Bear mature a little more. I would rather minimize dead cap space in the coming years.

Marc

I think Pitlick makes an interesting comp for Benson. They were drafted in pretty much the same place. Pitlick was old for his draft cohort and Benson about in the middle of his.

Pitlick was a NCAA freshman his draft year and scored .5 ppg, which is great for an 18 year old freshman. Draft +1 was a so-so year in the WHL just over 1ppg. Draft +2 he was in the AHL. He scored less than .5 ppg, which isn’t great, but he was a 20 year old in a men’s league, which makes it look a lot more impressive. Three injury plagued AHL seasons followed in which he improved his scoring to around .75 ppg, but didn’t come close to playing a full season in any of them.

Benson was a 1 ppg player in the WHL his draft year, but only played 30 games due to injury. He improved to just under 1.3 ppg in his draft +1 season, but again lost more than half the season to injury. In his draft +2 season in the WHL he stayed healthy for the full season, but his offence didn’t improve at all (just over 1.2 ppg), which isn’t great for an overager.

If Pitlick and Benson were in the same draft class, you’d peg Pitlick as the better prospect through draft +2, as he’s keeping his head above the water in the AHL whereas Benson is treading water in the WHL.

If Benson settles in as a .5 ppg or less player in his first AHL season, the I think we can safely pencil him in as needing a couple years of AHL seasoning and the best case scenario is probably him emerging as a useful bottom 6 player like Khaira or Pitlick in a couple years.

If he’s shows more offense though – in the .5-1 ppg range – though, then he starts tracking ahead of Pitlick and we might have a more interesting player on our hands.

Woodguy v2.0

PunkInDrublic: The same reason 36% body fat is a thing… an inability or unwillingness to do something about it.

Well done.

Woodguy v2.0

OriginalPouzar:
Lagesson is a wild card for me. Ordinarily, I would think zero chance at the NHL in his first season back from Sweden.With that said, he has played in N. America before and I have a feeling about him similar to my feeling about Maroday.

I really liked what I saw from Lagesson at the prospects camp and the rookie tournament game – he was a much better skater and puck mover than I anticipated.From all accounts, just a great season in the SEL – a huge spike in ice time and trust from his coach and that’s a key stat.

He’s quite blocked at left D but I’m hopeful for this prospect.

3 years from now the only LHD on the NHL roster who will still be with team is Nurse.

Imo

judgedrude

LT, you must love Keith’s interview on the Oilers website:

“Guys have done a lot of work”, “We prep to get any play on the list…we have 120 on our list”, “We’re comfortable with who we have on our list”, “We’ll take the BPA”, “It’s our list, it’s notbody else’s list”, ‘When we put our list together…our scouts worked hard to get their guy on the list”, “We use other lists as a check”, “That’s why we do the list”, “We have to take all the pieces of the puzzle and put our list together from there”

For Jordan…Keith says they interview 17 kids a day…but no list. 😉

Woodguy v2.0

Marc:
I think Pitlick makes an interesting comp for Benson. They were drafted in pretty much the same place. Pitlick was old for his draft cohort and Benson about in the middle of his.

Pitlick was a NCAA freshman his draft year and scored .5 ppg, which is great for an 18 year old freshman. Draft +1 was a so-so year in the WHL just over 1ppg. Draft +2 he was in the AHL. He scored less than .5 ppg, which isn’t great, but he was a 20 year old in a men’s league, which makes it look a lot more impressive. Three injury plagued AHL seasons followed in which he improved his scoring to around .75 ppg, but didn’t come close to playing a full season in any of them.

Benson was a 1 ppg player in the WHL his draft year, but only played 30 games due to injury. He improved to just under 1.3 ppg in his draft +1 season, but again lost more than half the season to injury. In his draft +2 season in the WHL he stayed healthyfor the full season, but his offence didn’t improve at all (just over 1.2 ppg), which isn’t great for an overager.

If Pitlick and Benson were in the same draft class, you’d peg Pitlick as the better prospect through draft +2, as he’s keeping his head above the water in the AHL whereas Benson is treading water in the WHL.

If Benson settles in as a .5 ppg or less player in his first AHL season, the I think we can safely pencil him in as needing a couple years of AHL seasoning andthe best case scenario is probably him emerging as a useful bottom 6 player like Khaira or Pitlick in a couple years.

If he’s shows more offense though – in the .5-1 ppg range – though, then he starts tracking ahead of Pitlick and we might have a more interesting player on our hands.

Good post.

Thanks for that

Munny

OriginalPouzar: I believe Tyler needs to peculate

Pretty sure he’ll get thrown out of the organization if he peculates funds lol.

JimmyV1965

Bling:
I think we have a good idea of what DC is (and is not) at this point.

We have a player that struggles defensively, scores at a pedestrian (to put it mildly) clip 5 v 5, and can’t help out on the PK. He doesn’t seem to be a C (FO% 20.8).

He did score some goals this season, but I wonder if there’s any sustain to that given his shooting percentage of 12.5 percent (7.5 last year). His shot attempt rate actually dropped slightly this season (181/67 vs 172/60). He also had 3 PP goals, and I can’t imagine him being a fixture on a PP run by Manny.

He’s basically a 4th liner that can’t pitch in on special teams. Is Todd going to continue to give him 13-14 minutes a game?

I’d move on from him.

This is what I don’t get. The guy scored 13 goals. You’ve acknowledged he’s a 4th liner. He’s going to get a contract close to league min. Why would you move on from him? I know he sucks defensively. I think it would be negligent to just let him walk without first seeing what the new coaching staff can do. It’s easier to learn defence than to score 13 goals.

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy v2.0: 3 years from now the only LHD on the NHL roster who will still be with team is Nurse.

Imo

Sure but LT was talking about him playing NHL games this coming season.

leadfarmer

Lowetide,

Brain trust is big enough that they could easily take all the prospects out for dinner

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: This is what I don’t get. The guy scored 13 goals. You’ve acknowledged he’s a 4th liner. He’s going to get a contract close to league min. Why would you move on from him? I know he sucks defensively. I think it would be negligent to just let him walk without first seeing what the new coaching staff can do. It’s easier to learn defence than to score 13 goals.

I think he’ll end up coming in close to double the league minimum, around $1.25M – not saying I agree he should but I think its likely he will.

RonnieB

Just wondering what it would cost in assets out in order to come home from the draft with a RD side of Larsson, Bouchard, Benning ?
Would #10 + Caggiula + Montoya get you to #6 ?

Bling

Marc:
I think Pitlick makes an interesting comp for Benson. They were drafted in pretty much the same place. Pitlick was old for his draft cohort and Benson about in the middle of his.

Pitlick was a NCAA freshman his draft year and scored .5 ppg, which is great for an 18 year old freshman. Draft +1 was a so-so year in the WHL just over 1ppg. Draft +2 he was in the AHL. He scored less than .5 ppg, which isn’t great, but he was a 20 year old in a men’s league, which makes it look a lot more impressive. Three injury plagued AHL seasons followed in which he improved his scoring to around .75 ppg, but didn’t come close to playing a full season in any of them.

Benson was a 1 ppg player in the WHL his draft year, but only played 30 games due to injury. He improved to just under 1.3 ppg in his draft +1 season, but again lost more than half the season to injury. In his draft +2 season in the WHL he stayed healthyfor the full season, but his offence didn’t improve at all (just over 1.2 ppg), which isn’t great for an overager.

If Pitlick and Benson were in the same draft class, you’d peg Pitlick as the better prospect through draft +2, as he’s keeping his head above the water in the AHL whereas Benson is treading water in the WHL.

If Benson settles in as a .5 ppg or less player in his first AHL season, the I think we can safely pencil him in as needing a couple years of AHL seasoning andthe best case scenario is probably him emerging as a useful bottom 6 player like Khaira or Pitlick in a couple years.

If he’s shows more offense though – in the .5-1 ppg range – though, then he starts tracking ahead of Pitlick and we might have a more interesting player on our hands.

Benson was not an overager this year. It’s true that he turned 20 in March, but he was 19 years old to begin the season, which makes him age-appropriate for the level. He would not have been eligible to play in the AHL.

Draft+2, Pitlick (November birthday, first season in the AHL, age 20), scored 23 points in 62 games (0.37 PPG). He did even worse the next season (0.22 PPG). We know the Oilers basically forget about non-superstar prospects the second they leave the podium at the draft, so some of that might be TOI related.

Benson is interesting. In terms of goals/GP, he went from a rank of 94 two years ago to 48 this year. In terms of primary points/GP, he went from 9th (!!!) two years ago to 33rd this season. His primary points number actually dropped, despite being a year older (1.09 to 0.95).

Overall, though, I peg Benson as being a much better prospect than Pitlick. Being 9th in the WHL in primary points is significant (Barzal was 7th and 6th his last two seasons; KY was 4th and 10th). This season, he significantly improved his goal scoring. For a player of his type (non-playmaking division), I think this is a positive step.

I almost view his injury history as a positive — he only underwent sports hernia surgery last off-season, which means he probably won’t be 100% until this upcoming season.

My prediction is he ends up being a better player than Pitlick.

It’s definitely an interesting comparison, Marc, and I guess we’ll have to see what happens!

Bling

JimmyV1965,

Here’s why I move on from Caggiula:

If his shooting percentage regresses from 12.5 percent to 7.5 percent (his number from two years ago), he’s at 7-8 goals. Okay, now let’s say that this season he doesn’t get any power play time. So he gets dinged again.

If McLellan uses him as a true 4th liner, he won’t be getting 13-14 minutes per game, either. Where does that put him, goal-wise?

Aren’t you better off getting a real 4C who can PK, starting Lucic on the 4th line, and then grabbing an upgraded winger for the top 9 (preferably top 6)?

There can only be so many 5v5 black holes, and Lucic is probably not going anywhere.

Mr DeBakey

RonnieB:
Just wondering what it would cost in assets out in order to come home from the draft with a RD side of Larsson, Bouchard, Benning ?
Would #10 + Caggiula + Montoya get you to #6 ?

An 18-year-old playing D for the Oilers next year?
That’ll help them win games.

rickithebear

Lowetide:
Bakersfield Condors
Verified account
@Condors45m45 minutes ago
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The Condors have named Dave Manson and J-F Houle as assistant coaches under head coach Jay Woodcroft

Another WHL coach added by the Oilers. Manson was associate coach under Marc Habscheid in Prince Albert.

Ronnie gunville the director of PLayer Personel for PA raiders is were I first saw anyone move side to side like a table hockey goalie. Playing street hockey as a kid 40+ years ago.
He will be part of lead in video for table hockey goalie theory.

HD dman genetics in the Manson Family!

Scungilli Slushy

Bling:
JimmyV1965,

Here’s why I move on from Caggiula:

If his shooting percentage regresses from 12.5 percent to 7.5 percent (his number from two years ago), he’s at 7-8 goals. Okay, now let’s say that this season he doesn’t get any power play time. So he gets dinged again.

If McLellan uses him as a true 4th liner, he won’t be getting 13-14 minutes per game, either. Where does that put him, goal-wise?

Aren’t you better off getting a real 4C who can PK, starting Lucic on the 4th line, and then grabbing an upgraded winger for the top 9 (preferably top 6)?

There can only be so many 5v5 black holes, and Lucic is probably not going anywhere.

For me you are either an offensive threat or you are a role player. All players need to outscore, but particularly role players need to be defensively responsible first and foremost (because they can’t outscore mistakes) and have to be contributing on special teams.

Otherwise they are dragging the team down, as we know from years of the Oilers getting caved when Taylor or Connor weren’t on the ice. They do have to add points, but positive goal diff points.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar:
Trading to move up gives me a bit of the shivers as we’d be trading out multiple assets for a single asset back at a time when we still need to focus on accumulating depth at both the NHL and prospect level.

Don’t get me wrong, trading up to grab a Hughes or a Whalstrom certainly excites me, however, is the additional asset we’d give up worth it given the general non-consensus after the first couple picks?

I mean, are we going to give up an additional material assets when there is a decent chance someone like Boquist or Bouchard drop to 10?

I’d only trade up to 1 or 2 where there is a better chance at a difference maker. It’s too much of a guess and too risky after that. Maybe to 3 as Zadina has some nice attributes as well, but consensus and MHLE doesn’t seem to like him in the same way as Svechnikov.

Or NHLE