Good Year for the Roses

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers are adding players to the 50-man list at a rapid clip these days, we’re seeing the Bakersfield Condors’ roster come into view. A couple of Friday transactions have us closer to a full boat.

THE ATHLETIC!

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TWO MORE CONDORS

Edmonton made two transactions Friday, adding a pair of wingers to the Bakersfield roster for the fall. Patrick Russell ranked No. 5 among Bakersfield forwards in points one year ago (68, 14-13-27, NHLE: 15.8), impressive due to lack of power-play (0-0-0 boxcars) time. He played a lot on the penalty kill (4-1-5 boxcars), tying for No. 3 in the AHL in shorthanded goals. Edmonton also made a minor trade, picking up Maine (NCAA) forward Nolan Vesey from Toronto for a future depth selection. Vesey is 23 (Jeff Veillette, who will appear on Saturday Sports Extra at 2:20 Edmonton time, wrote about him here) and has been signed to an entry-deal by Edmonton. He ranks No. 10 among forwards outside the NHL in equivalency:

The equivalencies (via Rob Vollman) tell us Kailer Yamamoto is the best prospect in the system offensively among forwards. We know by number and by age. Chiarelli often makes unusual bets that don’t run in lock step with math (this is a blog that appreciates math), but the Cooper Marody bet looks like a winner. The scouts should get credit for Yamamoto and for Kirill Maksimov who posted a strong season at age 18.

Vesey looks like what he is, a long shot. His offense is about the same as Graham McPhee’s, except McPhee is a much younger player. We can’t see Vesey as an NHL player via math, because that would be dishonest (you’d have to be a genuine lunkhead to make the case for him with this graph). The future bottom-six forwards on this list score at  higher levels at age 19 (Tyler Pitlick was 26.2 NHLE in Medicine Hat, age 19). Tyler Benson is a candidate for the third line should he develop, he is both younger and better than Vesey.

That said, Peter Chiarelli has employed some shy offensive forwards over the years. Shawn Thornton arrived in Boston at age 30 and the club employed him for a decade. This is a different era, but the Chiarelli Oilers also employ shy offensive forwards.

  • Leafs Chief Scout Dave Morrison on Vesey draft weekend: “Nolan certainly has a little bit of an edge to him. It’s never a bad thing, but he’s got the hands and he can produce. He’s another guy with offensive potential.” Source

The big free-agent pickup (pre-July 1) this year is Joel Persson, although we won’t see him this fall and winter. I’m excited to see how he shines a year from September. Funny how hockey extends these things, isn’t it? Who the hell knows where any of us will be October 2019 and yet my mind is cast all the way there by some distant bell.

50-MAN ROSTER

  • This roster needs a lot of help but there are slots available and if the team makes smart bets on players making low money, maybe they’ll uncover some gems.
  • The LW depth chart needs 2006 Raffi Torres, the C depth chart needs turn of the century Todd Marchant, the RW depth chart needs 2010 Jordan Eberle.
  • Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning added for less than $4.5 million to this group gives Edmonton a solid defensive depth chart.
  • Mikko Koskinen is a wild card.

OILERS FA LIST

  • G Nick Ellis RFA. Oilers have a full boat, but could deal Montoya and sign Ellis.
  • G Laurent Brossoit UFA. It’s a good bet he’s going to make like Lionel Richie and sail on down the line.
  • LD Darnell Nurse RFA. A bridge deal likely part of the conversation.
  • RD Matt Benning RFA. A shorter term seems likely, Benning has settled in as a solid defender.
  • LD Yohann Auvitu UFA. Reportedly heading back to Europe, there’s an NHL player here.
  • RD Mark Fayne UFA. He’s done with the Oilers, we’ll see if he catches on with another team.
  • LD Keegan Lowe UFA. I think he might return on a two-way deal.
  • LD Dillon Simpson UFA. Same spot as Lowe, likely room for only one.
  • LD Joey Laleggia UFA. He’ll sign with an NHL team that sees him as a defenseman. Maybe Vancouver.
  • LD Ben Betker RFA. Likely part of a substantial “Leftorium” haircut this summer.
  • RC Ryan Strome RFA. Several options for this player, including a trade.
  • RC Kyle Platzer RFA. I don’t think he’s shown enough in his entry deal.
  • LC Grayson Downing UFA. Quiet free agent signing.
  • L Mike Cammalleri UFA. I liked his contribution but the Oilers need more speed.
  • L Drake Caggiula RFA. Likely gets a short-term deal.
  • L Braden Christoffer RFA. Unlikely to return.
  • R Anton Slepyshev RFA. KHL rumors (and a trade) suggest he’s headed for the Motherland.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen RFA. Also the subject of Russia rumors.
  • R Patrick Russell. RFA. I think there’s a chance he gets another deal.
  • R Brian Ferlin UFA. Barely got on the ice.

It’s telling that Jesse Puljujarvi isn’t on this list. He turned 20 one month ago, scored 12 goals as a teenager in the best league in the world, remains a mannish boy with a big world in front of him. I have no quarrel with the names included, but the omission of JP is a tell. In my opinion. Update: I have been informed Bob said that Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and the No. 10 overall pick have a shot to join this group but are not proven yet.

OILERS MOCK 2018

  • First Round—No. 10 overall—LC Barrett Hayton, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Steve Kournianos: Slick, two-way center who can beat you in a variety of ways. Whether you view Hayton as the beneficiary of a deep supporting cast, or a key cog in Sault Ste Marie’s attack, the truth is he very much is a very skilled, heady player. He has excellent vision and makes most defenders miss when he’s controlling the puck below the circles. Hayton’s a strong skater with excellent balance. He won’t blow past defenders immediately after his first or second step, but his straight-line speed when combined with the likelihood of a sudden change in direction keeps opponents guessing. Hayton is both shifty and crafty with the puck, plus he’s capable of making high-percentage plays on his backhand. He knows how to finish around the goal, but he’s also shown to favor his lethal wrist shot from anywhere near the circles. Again, this kid is very hard to prepare for — both before a game and right when he hops over the boards. He can be a relentless forechecker, especially on the penalty kill, and he will use his body effectively to protect the puck. He has top-line upside and should be expected to dominate the OHL next season when his role is expanded. Source
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall—LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan). McKeens: Center playing both power play and penalty kill for the best team in Allsvenskan. Steps up in big situations and tries to create offense. Sometimes sloppy and needs to cover the puck better but a very interesting prospect. Source
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall—LD Nicolas Beaudin, Drummondville (QMJHL).Impressive puck mover, only foot speed keeps him outside the top 31 overall.
  • Fourth Round—No. 102 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. Montoya covered the condition).
  • Fifth Round—No. 133 overall—L Jack Randl, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Impressive scorer. Zero buzz.
  • Sixth Round—No. 164 overall—RD Ondrej Buchtela, Pirati Chomutov (Cze U20).Puck mover, good speed.
  • Seventh Round—No. 195 overall—LD Marc Del Gaizo, Muskegon (USHL).Impressive skill defender.

 

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sumaclab

Carolina at 2 Montreal at 3. Tavares a FA. July 1st. Islanders at 11 12.
Montreal would sell their soul for 29. 2 firsts and 4 2cds.
Carolina is a whole bag of crazy cats.
Islanders could lose almost everything in one fell swoop.
Folks. If there was ever a moment for Chia to man up and fix his screw ups it is June 22cd.

ArmchairGM

ArmchairGM: Can’t you guys see what LT is doing here? Trying to drum up support for the top three centers so other teams can justify taking them in the top-10. We absolutely NEED this to happen so a prospect of note falls to us. It’s working too – many mocks now have Kotkaniemi in the top-10, some have Veleno there too.

So shout it from the rooftops: BARRETT HAYTON IS A LEGIT TOP-10 PICK!

The irony of this approach is that I’ve watched hour of tape on these guys and I’ve convinced myself that Kotkaniemi would be a steal at #10. Veleno has vision rivaled only by Merkley in this draft (sorry Dahlin) – the eyes-in-the-back-of-the-head passing is phenomenal. I don’t consider Veleno at #10 to be “going off the board”, although I still don’t have Hayton as high as this.

ArmchairGM

leadfarmer:
Hayton is the player you let other organizations spend their first round picks on.Picking him at 10 would be horrible

Can’t you guys see what LT is doing here? Trying to drum up support for the top three centers so other teams can justify taking them in the top-10. We absolutely NEED this to happen so a prospect of note falls to us. It’s working too – many mocks now have Kotkaniemi in the top-10, some have Veleno there too.

So shout it from the rooftops: BARRETT HAYTON IS A LEGIT TOP-10 PICK!

OriginalPouzar

They do and they don’t.

He did lead the team in even strength TOI/G so played very tough minutes and, when Larsson was hurt/bereaved, those minutes were with Kris Russell on his off-side – that in itself warrants an extra $500K.

Top 40 d-man in even strength points.

I would hope that a bridge comes in under $4M and that a long term deal comes in around $4.5M but I just don’t know.

Also, I think Benning will come in around $1.75M so, to get both for $4.5M seems like a fantasy to me.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar:
I don’t imagine we’ll see Nurse and Benning under contract for less than $4.5M combined.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Nurse gets close to that number himself, even on a bridge.

His results don’t warrant that number at all. But, Chai…

OriginalPouzar

Nail spent two full season in Sarnia before he was draft. I don’t think his ability to pick up the nuances of the English language are the reason he’s under-performed.

Richard S.S.

Free Agency in Baseball last for months and months for the talent to sign. Free Agency in the NHL is over in the first twelve hours. MLB has it’s Draft in the middle of the Season and they draft 40. Every other Sport has it after the playoffs and don’t even draft double digits. MLB has six or seven Teams of at least 25 players. NHL does almost as well just owning two. The MLB Draft is rarely discussed on most blogs/media outlets. The NHL goes on and on for week after week after week – blogs/media outlets. MLB plays 162 games over six months and Playoffs are over in one month. Every other Sport has too many off days, generally having more off days in a week that they actually play. Sports are fun to watch, but regularly following Baseball and Hockey cover the year for me quite well. Set up your notifications right on your phone/pad and you rarely need to check anything.

Richard S.S.

There will always be issues with people who have English as a second or other language. Nuances are missed, yet they are a major part of any language. Frame of reference is different. Even meanings are different. Even people speaking the same language have as many or even more issues. Consider that the person who was taught English as a second language learned from someone who has English as a second language which was learned…

The Oilers have never provided quality translators and teachers for any Player with a non-English primary language. That’s a mistake. Expecting it to be the Player’s responsibility is stupid. Making sure a Player knows what is expected of him is vital. Oilers lose more Players/assets this way than any other. Did Yak really understand everything he needed to know? Did others? Did Slep? Does JP?

OriginalPouzar

I have zero interest or desire to “forget hockey” – its been over for almost 48 hours and I miss it already.

hunter1909

Oilman99: Yak had the hockey sense of bag of pucks, and the inability,or stubbornness to learn the 200ft.

Oh sure.

Not like Dallas “Who-Brings-Issues” Eakins didn’t set him up to be his scapegoat for his own manifestation of total failure as an NHL head coach.

By all means write Yakupov off but before you do so send your own 19 year old to Deepest Darkest Russia to go work in heavy industry for 15 months – not knowing any Russian beforehand, and with the hands on management Tatarstan equivalent of Dallas “The Freak” Eakins who will oversee every aspect of his working life.

Oilers under Lowe+MacT are and freaking remain a Black Hole for it’s own players – despite everyone’s finest efforts to ignore the reality that Lowe+MacT have never gone anywhere.

Fortunately for me I can now forget hockey since the World Cup of Soccer is about to kick off, England are all set to make their excuses, and summer is just around the corner.

Y’all have yourselves a memorable summer.

Woodguy v2.0

Munny:
Bob McKenzie presents what is clearly stated as a compilation list compiled from a poll of (in the past) 10 NHL scouts.

How anyone could confuse this with the list being Bob’s own rankings after all these years is beyond me.

Even the player descriptions come from Craig Button.

Yeah, Bob’s list is basically a weighting of 10 teams’ draft lists.

That’s why it’s ‘”the Bible” for predicting draft order. It’s actual NHL team’s draft lists.

He’s never proclaimed to be ranking the players himself.

GMB3

OriginalPouzar:
Someone earlier mentioned JP and the “Ovi spot” and it made me think of the Krill Maksimov season highlights I saw yesterday – my goodness that kid can shoot the puck – accurate, hard and a quick release.

Here is hoping he keeps developing with arrows up because, if he makes it to the NHL, this team hasn’t had a shot like that since Arnott I don’t think (at forward, Souray doesn’t count).

Jarret Stoll circa 2006 comes to mind. MAB as well

Munny

Bob McKenzie presents what is clearly stated as a compilation list compiled from a poll of (in the past) 10 NHL scouts.

How anyone could confuse this with the list being Bob’s own rankings after all these years is beyond me.

Even the player descriptions come from Craig Button.

Oilman99

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Yak never got the linemates that Hall or Eberle did.

– Yak played well in spurts with C’s who knew what they were doing

– Pool: I think they are developing right: just becasue he’s a top pick, they are not gifting him top minutes: but he has shown much more 2 way acument than Yak IMO.

– You have to hope that this is the year Pool emerges as a top-6 winger, by the endof the year

Yak had the hockey sense of bag of pucks, and the inability,or stubbornness to learn the 200ft. game. JP has to show marked improvement this year, I would hope organization ensures he gets the right direction and training this summer to make it happen.

flyfish1168

Woogie63:
The three most important Oilers for this team to be successful next year?

1. Talbot – needs a big improvement vs. 17/18
2. Sekera – Can he get close to 16/17 contributions
3. McDavid – Make the power play work, when it not on the rush

Oilers for a Succesful season

1) No major injuries
2) players play to their expected level and prospects all have a good season
3) specialty teams in top 5

OriginalPouzar

I’d have to agree with that – with full respect to Bobby M., how much junior and amateur hockey is he actually watching? I mean, I think he’s pretty darn busy with the professional ranks.

Jaxon

Rondo: To me the only 2 rankings thatcount are Hockey Prospect and Bob McKenzie. The restare interesting, and have some valuable info.

I wouldn’t even real count Mackenzie’s as a ranking. It’s closer to a mock or consensus list than a ranking. I think his list is built more through knowing the way teams are leaning than through his own player evaluation. If you’re interested in seeing the future as far as draft day then go with Mackenzie. If you’re interested in seeing the future best players 5 years from now I’d be more interested in someone like Pronman’s, Wheeler’s, Kournianos, or Button. They actually evaluate the players whereas Mackenzie is a crystal ball for the draft. Both have value.

hunter1909

blainer: I was told of a situation a good few years ago by a friend connected with an NHL team that one of their top D questioned why he should have to practice as much as the rest of the team.

This is the perfect type of situation if hunter1909’s the coach.

Talented player: “Come on coach, I’m better then the rest of the team put together. Why should I have to practice so hard?”

(coach)Hunter1909: “Because teams that practice together giving full effort win the big games; because they’ve learned how to play hard in practice – meanwhile those “talented” teams lose to the hard working teams time and time again. Now, give me ten push ups!”

Matticus

Trading JP would be a big mistake. That game he had against the Canucks where he was an absolute monster and the one against the flamers where he should have had a hat trick in the first.I think we will see a lot more of this in years to come!

Go poolparty!

Rondo

Jaxon:
MY DRAFT RANKING/MOCK/CONSENSUS TRACKER UPDATED WITH THE FOLLOWING IN THE PAST WEEK:
“Simon Boisvert June 8th”
“Hockey Prospect June 7th”
“McKeen’s Hockey June 7th”
“Craig Button TSN June 5th”
“Larry Fisher The Hockey Writers June 4th”
“Brett Slawson The Hockey Writers June 3rd”
“Allan Mitchell Lowetide June 1st”

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

ALSO ADDED AVERAGE RANKINGS IN ONE TAB. STILL NEEDS SOME WORK.

To me the only 2 rankings that count are Hockey Prospect and Bob McKenzie. The rest are interesting, and have some valuable info.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar:
With respect to the PK, as abysmal as it was for much of the year, it was also the best in the league from February 1 through the rest of the season, a good 2 month sample size. I believe this generally coincided with two thing (a) coaching changes (and J. Johnson being relieved of running the PP) and (b) personnel changes (essentially Caggulia and Letestu being replaced with Khaira and Strome).

We’ve lost Pak but I also assume we will be adding a veteran 4C in free agency – that player is likely to have PK acumen.

I agree that the pk turnaround coincided with the player changes which coincided with Letestu being moved! My concern is the lag time it took to recognize and make the change! Defensive alignments have to be adjusted in a timely fashion. With the video available the we will play our game and if we do it well we will win is no longer valid. Smart coaches quickly find ways to break down defenses and systems play. A winning team has to prepare for each opponent somewhat differently. If you know a pitcher on a 2 and 1 count always throws a certain pitch he does not stay a winning pitcher very long. You can not as a team be predictable.

digger50

Jaxon:
MY DRAFT RANKING/MOCK/CONSENSUS TRACKER UPDATED WITH THE FOLLOWING IN THE PAST WEEK:
“Simon Boisvert June 8th”
“Hockey Prospect June 7th”
“McKeen’s Hockey June 7th”
“Craig Button TSN June 5th”
“Larry Fisher The Hockey Writers June 4th”
“Brett Slawson The Hockey Writers June 3rd”
“Allan Mitchell Lowetide June 1st”

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

ALSO ADDED AVERAGE RANKINGS IN ONE TAB. STILL NEEDS SOME WORK.

Great work – again

So did you dig up anything further on Mascherin? What was Florida’s ask or anything like that?

It seems ludicrous that nobody would offer a late round pick and that Florida could not get a late round pick. Something doesn’t add up.

Jaxon

Bank Shot:
Jaxon,
Is lower better?
Historically it doesn’t look like a very accurate predictor with Bogosian, Kulikov, and Schenn all above Doughty and Fowler.

I know, right? But remember, that Doughty and Bogosian were trading #2 and #3 in a lot of rankings that year. Many thought Bogosian was the better overall player, more physical, better skater, better defensively, and he had the offensive production to boot. I read one list that said Bogosian was as good as Doughty, “without the question marks”. All situations, Bogosian outscored Doughty and Fowler at Pts/GP. My stat is Primary Points/minute and at 5-on-5 only, where it appears he really outscored them. Bogosian had a couple major injuries early in his career. I wonder how much that has affected his ceiling of play. He didn’t pan out like Fowler or Doughty, but he has turned into a solid 2nd pair NHLer.

Kulikov is a decent D, but no, you’re right, he’s not in the same category as top pairing D.

Schenn, on the other hand, is an example of someone who scored well in junior but couldn’t bring it to the next level. I think speed issues would probably be something you see on scouting reports. so maybe that hindered his ability to bring the points with him. Just reminder that you shouldn’t depend on stats alone. If there are red flags about speed or IQ or compete, they shouldn’t be ignored in the name of stats.

OriginalPouzar

With respect to the PK, as abysmal as it was for much of the year, it was also the best in the league from February 1 through the rest of the season, a good 2 month sample size. I believe this generally coincided with two thing (a) coaching changes (and J. Johnson being relieved of running the PP) and (b) personnel changes (essentially Caggulia and Letestu being replaced with Khaira and Strome).

We’ve lost Pak but I also assume we will be adding a veteran 4C in free agency – that player is likely to have PK acumen.

pts2pndr

Woodguy v2.0: Bob mentioning Smith.

Oilers taking Smith for dinner at the combine.

Oiler’s twitter mentioning him.

Oiler insider Lowetide high on him.

Hmmmmmmmm

Love hhen you mess with LT! Best tongue in cheek of the day!

Woodguy v2.0

pts2pndr: There is a trust/belief bond that has to form between individual player and coach for the player to be successful. I am not sure that one is there between TMac and JP. This is my major concern with McLellan continuing as head coach. Just like in any relationship once trust is gone or damaged it is very difficult to recapture! I believe that there is great talent in JP but not sure it can be realized with McLellan as his coach!

I agree with that.

I hope McLellan is on a short leash in this regards.

pts2pndr

Woogie63:
The three most important Oilers for this team to be successful next year?

1. Talbot – needs a big improvement vs. 17/18
2. Sekera – Can he get close to 16/17 contributions
3. McDavid – Make the power play work, when it not on the rush

These are the same players that were on the team that got 103 points. Sekera should be healthy which will make a big difference. Better overall defense should see Talbots numbers improve. The major determination in how the team does this year IMO is on the coaching staff. The penalty kill and power play have to be much better. The teams belief in the systems put in place by the coaches has to have a full buy in! Training camp this year is of utmost importance ! We need to see a true “TEAM ” come out of the gate properly prepared to compete for a full 60 minutes!

pts2pndr

Woodguy v2.0: WheatnOil mentioned this the other day and it bears repeating:

If JP were drafted out of the CHL he would have spent the last two years in the CHL as we would not have been old enough for the AHL until the 18/19 season.

He is very young.

Last year was his 19 year old year.

In Drai’s 19 year old year he put up 9 points in 37 games and was sent down to the WHL.

JP is actually tracking fine for his age.

18/19 is a big year as most (but not all) upper end players make a jump in their 20 year old year.

If JP is in the top 6 full time next year and on PP2, I think 50pts wouldn’t be a surprise.

There is a trust/belief bond that has to form between individual player and coach for the player to be successful. I am not sure that one is there between TMac and JP. This is my major concern with McLellan continuing as head coach. Just like in any relationship once trust is gone or damaged it is very difficult to recapture! I believe that there is great talent in JP but not sure it can be realized with McLellan as his coach!

leadfarmer

jzed,

Merkley would be nice. He was one point of the lead with 4 games less played so not like he was playing with multiple 100 point players. Also very young for the draft class.

Woogie63

The three most important Oilers for this team to be successful next year?

1. Talbot – needs a big improvement vs. 17/18
2. Sekera – Can he get close to 16/17 contributions
3. McDavid – Make the power play work, when it not on the rush

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar:
I’m fine with the 2020 seventh round for Vesey and then signing him as long as we don’t get in to a 50 contract crunch that we did last year. I believe we have tons of room to maneuver right now.

Vesey is the most distant of all bells to even play in the NHL but so are most 7th rounders and Vesey will at least be able to help the LW depth in Bakersfield in the near term – that is the reason for the trade for a 7th rounder, 3 drafts from today.

This looks like a reach but obviously someone in the organization believes or saw him good. I just hope it isn’t the same person that thought Dallas Eakins was going to be the next best coach in the NHL!

jzed

Of course, if they don’t draft Merkley, it’s because the pick is part of monster deal for Karlsson….

Woodguy v2.0

Pretendergast:
@EdmontonOilers

Ty Smith is one of a few intriguing d-man prospects at this year’s #NHLDraft that indicate a changing tide for smaller blueliners.

3:36 PM – 8 Jun 2018

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/draft-smith-defying-expectation/c-299005102

Oilers writers do an article on Ty Smith, sign of things to come?

Bob mentioning Smith.

Oilers taking Smith for dinner at the combine.

Oiler’s twitter mentioning him.

Oiler insider Lowetide high on him. 🙂

Hmmmmmmmm

jzed

Got a funny suspicion that the Oilers at 10 draft Merkley and immediately assign him to McCaptain’s right hip. On Pronman’s best skater list and #1 passer. Passing to McCaptain that is.

Woodguy v2.0

Speaking of age….

I didn’t realize that Ryan Merkley is still 17.

Turns 18 in August.

That should make some teams higher on him as a lot of his issues are maturity related. (Physical and Mental Maturity)

By contrast Evan Bouchard turns 19 on Oct 20. He was a month away from being a 2017 draft eligible.

Pretendergast

@EdmontonOilers

Ty Smith is one of a few intriguing d-man prospects at this year’s #NHLDraft that indicate a changing tide for smaller blueliners.

3:36 PM – 8 Jun 2018

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/draft-smith-defying-expectation/c-299005102

Oilers writers do an article on Ty Smith, sign of things to come?

OriginalPouzar

Bling:
Between all of Stauffer’s recent musings, it sounds as though if any of the big contracts are to go, it’ll be Lucic. I think that’s the correct play here.

We can talk about new gym regimens and losing weight, but gaining a step at age 30 is probably not going to happen. Even if Lucic gets back to his 16/17 self, his 5v5 scoring is not good enough to play on the top two lines.

I still doubt that this happens. If not, I have all the time in the world for a 3rd/4th liner Lucic who PKs.

Whoa, Lucic on the PK?

If Lucic needs to be 3LW, so be it, however I don’t see him adding PK duties to his repertoire.

Forward pairs for next October:

Nuge/McDavid
Leon/Puljijriv
Stome/Khria

Perhaps Lucic cannot play 2LW anymore and Khaira is the 2LW and Lucic the 3LW.

Bank Shot

Jaxon,

Is lower better? 😉

Historically it doesn’t look like a very accurate predictor with Bogosian, Kulikov, and Schenn all above Doughty and Fowler.

Jaxon

Projected Primary Points for D:

YEAR Name “AGE & ERA ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1 @TOP4TOI”
2018 – RASMUS DAHLIN – 32.04
2018 – QUINN HUGHES – 23.60
2018 – JACOB RAGNARSSON – 20.20 – Is this player seriously underrated?! I’ve only seen him ranked 3 times at 53, 99 and 106.
2008 – Zach Bogosian – 19.92
2018 – ADAM BOQVIST – 19.87
2009 – Dmitry Kulikov – 17.61
2018 – RYAN MERKLEY – 16.29 – one of the fastest skaters and the best passer Pronman has ever seen. “Merkley is not only the best passer in the class, he’s one of the best passers I’ve ever seen at his age.”
2018 – EVAN BOUCHARD – 15.64
2018 – TY SMITH – 15.43
2013 – Seth Jones – 14.56
2018 – TY EMBERSON – 14.48
2018 – AXEL ANDERSSON – 14.34
2018 – FILIP KRAL – 13.58
2018 – RASMUS SANDIN – 13.47
2014 – Aaron Ekblad – 13.45
2008 – Luke Schenn – 12.86
2016 – Jakob Chycchrun – 12.80
2018 – CALEN ADDISON – 12.32
2018 – ALEXANDER ALEXEYEV – 11.81
2018 – NOAH DOBSON – 11.52
2018 – XAVIER BERNARD – 10.65
2018 – NICOLAS BEAUDIN – 10.05
2018 – JETT WOO – 10.02
2008 – Drew Doughty – 9.77
2018 – JARED MCISAAC – 8.48
2018 – CARTER ROBERTSON – 7.82
2018 – GIOVANNI VALLATI – 7.62
2010 – Cam Fowler – 7.34
2018 ALEC REGULA 7.12
2018 BODE WILDE 6.43

Johnny Larue

I agree with Stauffer he’s got the core right. Jesse P, Kailer , Bear and the number 10 are the top prospects I think the Oilers will keep them all. They will sign a veteran winger ala Lowtides list of options and goes from there. I think last year was the anomaly and I think they do to. I think you have to take Peter at his word when he said he wasn’t going to blow things up.

Bank Shot

OriginalPouzar: With respect to Mattheson, Nurse had 26 even strength points this year – more than Mattheson.

Manson’s ES points are vastly surperior, I give him that.

Nurse also led the Oilers in ES TOI/Game whereas both of Mattheson and Manson were 2nd pairing minutes at even strength so it seems Nurse played tougher minutes.

You make a good point but there are arguments that Nurse is better than Mattheson (more ES minutes, more ES points, etc.). Manson is just a great contract.

Even if there are arguments that Nurse is better than Matheson, I would say these two players are in the same ballpark.

Nurse shouldn’t get in a bridge what these guys got on a long term deal.

If I was the OIlers I’d point at Nate Schmidt and his bridge that starts with a 2.

Woodguy v2.0

Richard S.S.,

Age doesn’t/shouldn’t matter when comparing the same draft class.

This is not correct.

People who study the draft have age correction factors.

Pronman said that learning to adjust expectations based on draft age was a break through for him.

Age matters a lot, especially when discussing players under 22.

Bling

Between all of Stauffer’s recent musings, it sounds as though if any of the big contracts are to go, it’ll be Lucic. I think that’s the correct play here.

We can talk about new gym regimens and losing weight, but gaining a step at age 30 is probably not going to happen. Even if Lucic gets back to his 16/17 self, his 5v5 scoring is not good enough to play on the top two lines.

I still doubt that this happens. If not, I have all the time in the world for a 3rd/4th liner Lucic who PKs.

Johnny Larue

Melvis I don’t post much but I read every day always enjoy and respect what you have to say. So keep on keeping on.. Hope you’re doing good.

Jaxon

MY DRAFT RANKING/MOCK/CONSENSUS TRACKER UPDATED WITH THE FOLLOWING IN THE PAST WEEK:
“Simon Boisvert June 8th”
“Hockey Prospect June 7th”
“McKeen’s Hockey June 7th”
“Craig Button TSN June 5th”
“Larry Fisher The Hockey Writers June 4th”
“Brett Slawson The Hockey Writers June 3rd”
“Allan Mitchell Lowetide June 1st”

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

ALSO ADDED AVERAGE RANKINGS IN ONE TAB. STILL NEEDS SOME WORK.

Jaxon

FOR COMPARISON WITH BEST SINCE CROSBY IN 2005:

YEAR Name “AGE & ERA ADJ
NHLE 5-on-5 P1
@TOP6TOI”
2005 Sidney Crosby 48.18
2015 Connor McDavid 44.02
2018 Andrei Svechnikov 38.80*****AND POST INJURY HE WAS EVEN BETTER
2015 Mitchell Marner 37.49
2015 Dylan Strome 36.80
2014 Robby Fabbri 33.93
2007 Patrick Kane 32.41
2018 Joel Farabee 32.23****TOI ON ICE RED FLAG?!?!
2013 Nathan MacKinnon 30.49
2014 Sam Bennett 30.15
2014 Spencer Watson 30.10
2010 Taylor Hall 29.83
2013 Nicolas Petan 29.48
2016 Pierre-Luc Dubois 29.43
2016 Alex DeBrincat 29.20
2016 Cameron Morrison 29.13
2016 Adam Mascherin 29.04*****SHOULD HAVE FOUND A WAY
2008 Steven Stamkos 28.87
2009 Scott Glennie 28.83
2018 Oliver Wahlstrom 28.79*****
2013 Jonathan Drouin 28.62
2010 Tyler Seguin 28.53
2011 Ryan Strome 28.11
2006 Chris Stewart 28.11
2009 Evander Kane 28.10
2005 Bobby Ryan 28.02
2017 Owen Tippett 27.81
2010 Justin Shugg 27.73
2018 Jonathan Gruden 27.62***SERIOUSLY UNDERRATED****
2005 Devin Setoguchi 27.02
2017 Nick Suzuki 26.98
2009 John Tavares 26.74
2010 Tyler Toffoli 26.72
2014 Nick Ritchie 26.42
2014 Nikolaj Ehlers 26.06
2008 Tyler Ennis 26.04
2014 Leon Draisaitl 25.93

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7hTmAK0yHaBUJdGTSPg8k1kjCLfD1k6ISMjledHoWc/edit?usp=sharing

Jaxon

leadfarmer:
Hayton is the player you let other organizations spend their first round picks on.Picking him at 10 would be horrible

I wouldn’t be a big fan of picking Hayton either:

Projected Primary Points of North American forwards:
YEAR Name “AGE ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1 @TOP6TOI”
2018 Andrei Svechnikov 38.80
2018 Joel Farabee 32.23
2018 Oliver Wahlstrom 28.79
2018 Jonathan Gruden 27.62 GRUDEN!!!!!! Pick him at #40!!!!
2018 Filip Zadina 23.90
2018 Serron Noel 23.70 Underrated!
2018 Jake Wise 22.05
2018 Aidan Dudas 21.63
2018 Allan McShane 21.52
2018 Curtis Douglas 21.06
2018 Brady Tkachuk 20.48
2018 Blade Jenkins 20.41
2018 Tristen Nielsen 19.94
2018 Barrett Hayton 19.46*****************
2018 Jack Randl 19.27
2018 Matthew Struthers 19.06
2018 Pavel Gogolev 18.98 GOAL Scorer!
2018 Nathan Dunkley 18.44
2018 Reid Perepeluk 17.88
2018 Logan WIll 17.65
2018 Cedric Desruisseaux 17.64
2018 Akil Thomas 17.53
2018 Maxim Golod 17.36
2018 Brady Hinz 17.16
2018 Ryan O’Reilly 16.50
2018 Benoit-Olivier Groulx 16.43
2018 Hunter Holmes 16.30
2018 Erik Middendorf 16.24
2018 Max Grondin 15.90
2018 Jake Goldowski 15.90
2018 Dmitry Zavgorodniy 15.85
2018 Kody Clark 15.69
2018 Alexander Steeves 15.58
2018 Joe Veleno 15.50 – His second half of the season would probably be up near the elites of the draft in production, but I’m not sure I’d grab him at #10.
2018 Luka Burzan 15.46
2018 Riley Sutter 15.43
2018 Gabriel Fortier 15.42
2018 Matej Pekar 15.40
2018 Liam Foudy 15.33
2018 Cam Hillis 15.32
2018 Blake McLaughlin 15.19
2018 Edouard St-Laurent 15.06
2018 Ty Dellandrea 14.99
2018 Martin Pospisil 14.96
2018 Vladislav Kotkov 14.88
2018 Cole Fonstad 14.87
2018 Ryan McLeod 14.80

leadfarmer

RonnieB,

If he can recover a bit this year and we trade him after July 1st next offseason he’s only owed 4 mil a year for the rest of his contract in real money. Might have value to teams that cap never becomes an issue but want some grit like Carolina

Richard S.S.

Look at the stats for the 2106 Draft Class before anyone uses Jesse Puljujarvi’s age as an excuse for underachieving. His Pre-Draft pedigree has Auston Matthews and Patrick Laine as his comparables. Yet, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matthew Tkachuk, Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev, Charles McAvoy and Jakob Chychrun all have superior seasons to his.

Jesse Puljujarvi will be a very good forward in the NHL, but unlikely during his ELC. It’s still not known if he’s a top-three or top-six forward or something else. This coming Season he’s cheap, the following Season he’s not. Can the Oiler wait? Should the Oilers wait? I don’t know.