You can go sleep at home tonight (If you can get up and walk away)

The Oilers went into last year’s draft with seven picks and in dire need of making them count. One year later five of those picks are signed and one of the other selections had a solid year in college. Music! Now. Do it again.

THE ATHLETIC!

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DRAFT 2018

There have been times when Oilers fans wondered openly what the hell was going on at the draft table containing the Oildrop logo. The year 2007 comes to mind, but there have been others (Blind Alexei Mikhnov, Jesse “can’t put on weight” Niinimaki, Rob “banana hammock” Schremp) and on it went for several years.

Now I believe Oilers fans have reached the stage where they would like to see what the scouting staff could do with a full boat at the draft. This year, the club is missing only a fourth-round selection, and has picks at No. 10, 40 and 71. They might not get five men worth signing but three seems possible. Lay that pipe, Oilers, build that system.

BUTTON, LOWETIDE, FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS

I like to park these side by side around this time of year, we get to see the draft’s final stories focus and come into view. Something tells me Boqvist falls and the Oilers pass on him, possible to grab their own wildcard (Bokk? Kravtsov?) or my personal favorite Ty Smith (I have him at No. 5 overall but he could go in the 20’s). Button’s list often mirrors the Oilers, so we might want to spend more time looking at Barrett Hayton. What Oilers fans really need is for the Rangers to draft out of order, something that could happen. Future Considerations list is here.

LUCIC

Frank Seravalli (last week on the Lowdown) and Elliotte Friedman (31 Thoughts) both stated the Oilers are looking to move Milan Lucic. Seravalli talked about Edmonton adding a sweetener and Friedman mentioned the Oilers “seemed confident there is a fit” which may mean a deal is already in place and they are waiting for the completion of the trade. I’m thinking Lucic and No. 40 for Dion Phaneuf, I don’t like where this is going.

  • Bob McKenzie to Dustin Nielson (TSN1260): There’d be lots of teams that would roll the dice on Milan Lucic; but again, you literally would have to give him away in some respects to make a really favorable deal.” Source (Eric will tweet out interview this morning).

Dion Phaneuf, Bobby Ryan, and don’t forget the sweetener plus the Oilers might have to retain. This is beyond perilous, but it isn’t grand contemplating status quo either. If there’s an opportunity to improve the team without trading away valuable picks and prospects, then make it so. Milan Lucic and Drake Caggiula for Loui Eriksson? The Eriksson deal is a year shorter, and Eriksson might be able to help out in ways (penalty kill, two-way player) that represents a need for the Oilers. This is a difficult transaction.

2018 GOALIE DRAFT LIST

I like to rank goalies for my own purposes but the math I apply (save percentage over as many as three years, holding the starting job, size) are fairly rudimentary. Here are the 10 best goalies by my eye:

  1. Jakub Skarek, Jihlava (Czech). Huge goalie, quality resume.
  2. Oliver Rodrigue, Drummondville (QMJHL). Best NA goalie by consensus.
  3. Lukas Dostal, Brno (Czech). Fabulous numbers over the last two seasons.
  4. Olof Lindbom, Djurgardens (SuperElite). Good size, rebound control, strong U18’s.
  5. Amir Miftakhov, Irbis Kazan (MHL). Undersized but brilliant.
  6. Ivan Prosvetov, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL). Big goalie, gaudy numbers.
  7. Joel Hofer, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). He didn’t play much, quality when he did get in games.
  8. Justus Annunen, Karpat (Jr. Sm-Liiga). Massive goalie, solid season, playoff spike.
  9. Vincent Purpura, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Big goalie has been consistent.
  10. Alexis Gravel, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Talented big man mediocre in draft year.

TY SMITH

Lots of chatter about Ty Smith in the last 24 hours, Bob Stauffer’s tweet getting a lot of reaction on twitter and in the comments section. I’ve seen “if they draft Ty Smith at No. 10, I’m done!” and that’s a reflection of the great passion of Oilers fans.

I think it’s wise to understand why a shuffle may be taking place at this time. First, NHL teams will have a much better idea about each player in regard to health, injury, and the various testing results will lead them away from some prospects and toward others.

That said, it’s unlikely Bob is going to publish the Oilers list, so let’s calm ourselves a little. Beyond identifying a worthy player (see above), Stauffer is offering you his insight into a player “in the range” for Edmonton. Some have suggested the intent of the tweet was to send out a message to other NHL teams, while my own belief is Bob was giving you his opinion. I think it’s reasonable to expect a late shuffle and Boqvist (and others) may be falling. It happens every year. What you hope for is the fallers are matched or exceeded by risers. It’s one of the reasons why I publish my list June 1, the risers and fallers become obvious. Here is my top 10.

  1. LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL)
  2. R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). 
  3. L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
  4. LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA)
  5. LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
  6. RC Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL).
  7. L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA).
  8. RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). 
  9. RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite)
  10. RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL)

 

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205 Responses to "You can go sleep at home tonight (If you can get up and walk away)"

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  1. Rondo says:

    Bob Mac’s list should be interesting.
    Interested to see what order he has the next 4 D ranked after Dahlin.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    We are less than a year removed but 7 picks were made in the 2017 draft and only one of them has a down arrow. In my opinion, vis-a-vis their draft pedigree:

    – Yamamoto – even arrow – Yes, I know, he went on an insane heater near the end of the year but, for the season as a whole, I give him an even arrow and not an up arrow. I “expected” him to dominate the WHL and the WJC and he only did so in small spurts (and not the tournament). He got off to a super-slow start in the WHL – yes, a lull is expected after being returned from the NHL, however, the lull was not a few weeks, it was bordering on a few months. I have not soured one iota on the player, don’t get me wrong, just don’t think he deserves an “up arrow”

    – Skinner – up arrow – no-brainer – was doing OK-good in Lethbridge but we all know how he performed after his trade to Swift Current. He out-battled Carter Hart in the WHL Finals for crying out loud.

    – Samorukov – up arrow – they signed him so quickly (maybe it was/is the flight risk factor) – He had a nice season. Lots of work to do on his defensive game but his offensive game is developing well. He had an increasing role for Russia at the WJC. Excited to see how he does next year in Guelph with McFadden graduated to pro – should see increased minutes/responsibility including more PP time

    – Safin – up arrow – great job in St. John. Solid first half and a very good second half after Valeno got traded considering he had no offensive help. Will he be in the Q or AHL next year?

    – Maksimov – up arrow – Love this player. He’s got a shot that we haven’t had on our NHL club since Jason Arnott. The man loves to shoot the puck and he scored lots of goals. I look for him to have a huge season

    – Brind’Amour – down arrow – if it wasn’t for his last name, I’m not sure I’d remember he was Oiler property

    Kemp – up arrow – for a 7th round pick to the be the last US cut from the WJC team – good stuff.

  3. Marc says:

    LT

    Curious to know why you have Dellandrea so low. He has almost identical boxcars to Hayton, but is a month and a half younger and plays on a much worse team – Hayton’s Soo Greyhounds had 317 goals for last season, whereas Dellandrea’s Flint Firebirds had only 194 goals for.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    The two players that I think are likely to be considered by the Oilers at 10 have concerns:

    – Boquist – concussion history – 2 in a year

    – Smith – under-performed in big games/tournaments against the top competition

  5. Lowetide says:

    Marc:
    LT

    Curious to know why you have Dellandrea so low. He has almost identical boxcars to Hayton, but is a month and a half younger and plays on a much worse team – Hayton’s Soo Greyhounds had 317 goals for last season, whereas Dellandrea’s Flint Firebirds had only 194 goals for.

    I think Hayton is a complete center, so it is more about what he is than what Dellandrea is not.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am against a sweetner to get rid of Lucic and I’m against taking back and equally bad contract to get rid of Lucic. I am definitely against adding both together.

    I would be much more apt to retain salary, say $1.5M – is Lucic not tradeable at a cap hit of $4.5M?

    What about after July 1 and the $3.5M bonus is paid – for an internal budget team, his high cap hit vis-a-vis actual money paid in the last 5 years could be attractive.

    I’m not as against Phaneuf as a return as, at $5.25M, is it really that bad of a contract?

    Of course, one of the leftorium would need to go and I am NOT OK with trading 77 to make room for Phaneuf.

  7. Primetime says:

    Like many, I agree that Boqvist will be the faller.

    I can see the Oil trading back a few picks for another asset (pick) if someone is interested at the time. They would hope to get Ty Smith a few slots later. If they lose him and Boqvist still available they can take him and announce their brilliance that they got the player they wanted all along at a lower slot plus another pick.

    As for the Merkley vs. Smith discussion in the last thread, been told from someone familiar with Team Canada’s room that those 2 kids are complete opposite personalities. And I agree 100% with LT, the Oilers history tells us those things matter and there is little chance they would take Merkley.

  8. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We are less than a year removed but 7 picks were made in the 2017 draft and only one of them has a down arrow. In my opinion, vis-a-vis their draft pedigree:

    – Yamamoto – even arrow – Yes, I know, he went on an insane heater near the end of the year but, for the season as a whole, I give him an even arrow and not an up arrow.I “expected” him to dominate the WHL and the WJC and he only did so in small spurts (and not the tournament). He got off to a super-slow start in the WHL – yes, a lull is expected after being returned from the NHL, however, the lull was not a few weeks, it was bordering on a few months.I have not soured one iota on the player, don’t get me wrong, just don’t think he deserves an “up arrow”

    Not including KY’s performance in the NHL in your analysis?

  9. russ99 says:

    Maybe KY’s season will finally teach the Oilers to stop rushing their forward first round picks.

    Letting him play 9 games with the big club didn’t do him any favors, and the multiple-GMs old idea that we can bring in a kid early instead of signing or acquring an NHL player has to stop.

  10. Marc says:

    Lowetide,

    Fair enough.

    I haven’t seen any of these kids play, but solely on the basis of box cars, age and circumstances that affect scoring ie. team quality I would think that the OHL centres should be ranked:

    1. Dellandrea
    2. Hayton
    3. Foudy
    4. McLeod

  11. Brantford Boy says:

    I see Bouchard as the one losing value for some reason… think Phoenix selects Dobson…

    I’m about to do a few things I don’t do on this blog:

    1. Bringing up the Hall trade – Surprisingly everyone has been pretty content with the thought of sending Lucic packing, which I agree it would be great, if not for his down year and selling low, and there is a good chance he will return to past results. Wasn’t this guy signed to replace Hall, or was it to bring in Larsson, I’m confused.

    2. Swear – Fuck! Are you kidding me, trading Lucic already! I suppose this admits complete failure by the GM or the player asked for a trade (the latter is the rumour at the moment).

    3. Post comment from previous LT threads – ArmchairGM: As for the point tables thread from yesterday, I realize you were not judging me, I had to google myself (lame) to find the information from the previous post. It was actually yourself and DOUG MCLACHLAN (kudos on the information again) that were having the discussion I piped in on. Ironically it the same information VOR was posting yesterday but without all the data behind the numbers. If you want to review the thread, here’s the link:
    https://lowetide.ca/2018/04/20/pet-sounds-3/#comment-737133

  12. Side says:

    russ99:
    Maybe KY’s season will finally teach the Oilers to stop rushing their forward first round picks.

    Letting him play 9 games with the big club didn’t do him any favors, and the multiple-GMs old idea that we can bring in a kid early instead of signing or acquring an NHL player has to stop.

    You don’t see any value in giving a promising rookie a look at what it takes to be successful in the NHL? Playing with an NHL team, travelling apart of an NHL team, seeing what it takes to be successful on the ice?

    I didn’t see it as a “we got to rush KY to play in the NHL now” like we saw with the old Oilers.

    I bet you KY enjoyed the 9 games and didn’t think of it like “the Oilers really screwed my development and held me back”

  13. Oil Fan 99 says:

    Boqvist is everything the Oilers have been looking for the last few years. He is among the best skaters in the draft and should he fall they should look at it as a gift. Drafting him could allow them to not make any bold moves on defence allowing them to focus on the winger situation. Keeping the defenceman knowing he’s coming with both Sekera and Russel no move clauses expiring.

  14. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We are less than a year removed but 7 picks were made in the 2017 draft and only one of them has a down arrow. In my opinion, vis-a-vis their draft pedigree:

    – Yamamoto – even arrow – Yes, I know, he went on an insane heater near the end of the year but, for the season as a whole, I give him an even arrow and not an up arrow.I “expected” him to dominate the WHL and the WJC and he only did so in small spurts (and not the tournament). He got off to a super-slow start in the WHL – yes, a lull is expected after being returned from the NHL, however, the lull was not a few weeks, it was bordering on a few months.I have not soured one iota on the player, don’t get me wrong, just don’t think he deserves an “up arrow”

    – Skinner – up arrow – no-brainer – was doing OK-good in Lethbridge but we all know how he performed after his trade to Swift Current.He out-battled Carter Hart in the WHL Finals for crying out loud.

    – Samorukov – up arrow – they signed him so quickly (maybe it was/is the flight risk factor) – He had a nice season.Lots of work to do on his defensive game but his offensive game is developing well.He had an increasing role for Russia at the WJC.Excited to see how he does next year in Guelph with McFadden graduated to pro – should see increased minutes/responsibility including more PP time

    – Safin – up arrow – great job in St. John.Solid first half and a very good second half after Valeno got traded considering he had no offensive help.Will he be in the Q or AHL next year?

    – Maksimov – up arrow – Love this player.He’s got a shot that we haven’t had on our NHL club since Jason Arnott.The man loves to shoot the puck and he scored lots of goals. I look for him to have a huge season

    – Brind’Amour – down arrow – if it wasn’t for his last name, I’m not sure I’d remember he was Oiler property

    Kemp – up arrow – for a 7th round pick to the be the last US cut from the WJC team – good stuff.

    I agree with you on all your arrows and KY. I wish he did not get his 9 game audition. I feel it was did not help his development. He need to get a good start in the Dub and dominate, that would have been a better development. JMHO

  15. Jaxon says:

    Marc: prospect procurement

    In the past 13 years of CHL junior and last 3 years of USHL Hayton has the 311th best projected production with 19.46 5-on-5 Primary Points (adjusted for age and era and median top 6 minutes), and Dellandrea is 781st with a projected 14.99 5-on-5 Primary Points (adjusted for age and era and median top 6 minutes). That’s 30% more. And Hayton’s isn’t even that great (surrounded by Rihards Bukarts, Kerby Rychel, Tomas Jurco, Hunter Shinkaruk, Conner Bleakley, Lance Bouma and Vlad Namestnikov). Dellandrea is surrounded by Dwight King, Josh Leivo, Darren Helm, Cole Fonstad, Mitch Holmberg.

  16. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    What are the odds Looch has a bounce back year? Dustin Brown was horrible for a few years and returned to form last season. Similar player styles, similar dip in performance relative to established history, similar age.

    Would the fanbase or management have the patience to wait for a rebound?

  17. Jaxon says:

    I’m still hoping for the Oilers to gamble on Merkley. One of the best skaters in the draft. One of the youngest players in the draft. Also, I’ve seen him mentioned as having one of the best hockey IQs in the draft and that his defensive game will come along because of that. And Pronman said, “Merkley is not only the best passer in the class, he’s one of the best passers I’ve ever seen at his age.” I think he may have the biggest upside and what would help the Oilers the most? A great skater with a high hockey IQ who can pass. If you were to pick someone to dish to McDavid and Draisaitl for the next decade those are the top three qualities I’d be looking for. They have the size and D game of the future top 4 in Larsson and Nurse. Klefbom looks to provide offense from the left side. I think Merkley could be the perfect compliment to that top 4. As for the PP, Pronman also said Merkley, “walks the blueline as well as anyone.”

  18. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Depending on whether this Lucic thing is real (seems like there is a desire for sure), and depending on what the return is: it would be a massive fail by the organization

    – Looking at Capfriendly: if you assume we pay him his “bonus” of $3.5MM, July 1st total cash outlay for new team is only $3.5MM this year

    – Then for the next 4 years, he’s owed $19MM in cash, vs a $6MM AAV

    – If they can keep him another year, and he produces like he did pre-Christmas for the season, then his contract is very attractive to cap-conscious team. Next July 1 he has another $3MM bonus, so he’s costing only $4MM/year going forward

    – I always though that was the play: easy to trade later in contract

    – One more year: have him recover. Sit down with the family, come up with a game plan.

    – Whatever you get back for Lucic and whatever else you might have to give up, it’s just not going to be as good as what Lucic should do this year IMO

  19. JimmyV1965 says:

    It makes no sense to trade Lucic as a salary dump. Like OP, I’m okay with retaining some salary to get a decent player in return, but trading him for someone like Eriksson or Ryan, or adding a material asset, is complete insanity. If he sucks again this year, then you can trade him as a salary dump next year.

  20. russ99 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Depending on whether this Lucic thing is real (seems like there is a desire for sure), and depending on what the return is: it would be a massive fail by the organization

    – Looking at Capfriendly: if you assume we pay him his “bonus” of $3.5MM, July 1st total cash outlay for new team is only $3.5MM this year

    – Then for the next 4 years, he’s owed $19MM in cash, vs a $6MM AAV

    – If they can keep him another year, and he produces like he did pre-Christmas for the season, then his contract is very attractive to cap-conscious team.Next July 1 he has another $3MM bonus, so he’s costing only $4MM/yeargoing forward

    – I always though that was the play: easy to trade later in contract

    – One more year: have him recover.Sit down with the family, come up with a game plan.

    – Whatever you get back for Lucic and whatever else you might have to give up, it’s just not going to be as good as what Lucic should do this year IMO

    I think that with all of the NMC players, it’s a bit of wishful thinking to find a way to clear cap room without trading Klef or RNH.

    And all three of the NMC players are much more tradable and for better returns next summer, with the possible exception of Sekera if the knee injury has some permanent effects on his skating – and then we can put him on the LTIR or buy him out.

    I still think it’s a much better idea to move the RFAs (other than Nurse) that Chia gambled on last year and lost, move Kassian, and move down with the #10 (clearing bonuses) that clears up enough room to sign a couple of good FAs, bring back the veteran support we lost last season.

    With better goalering, better team defense, a player like Vanek, a cheap addition to the RHD in FA, and the likely event of Puljujarvi being able to claim a top six RW role, we could still get in the playoffs.

  21. Jaxon says:

    re: Yamamoto’s development. I don’t agree with many that his 9 game NHL stint hurt his development. He came out, performed well, but couldn’t quite finish (bad luck or just realizing how little time there is to be accurate or how good the goalies are?). I think MacLellan showed confidence in him and he got to experience just how hard the NHL is and how responsible you have to be. Hot got to expereience the daily life of an NHLer, which must be enticing. He got a taste of how much work is required. So what if it affected his play for a while once he got back to junior. He adjusted, worked on some things and turned it around by season’s end. I think he’s probably working on his strength and conditioning this summer with an extra sense of urgency. Maybe even working on his shot and release. He wouldn’t really know what to work on or how important it was without that taste. I think 9 games was perfect. His contract didn’t kick in and he gained valuable experience. If a player is truly harmed by getting a 9 game stint then that player probably won’t or shouldn’t make it. I think this anxiety Oiler fans have about ruining players is a bit overblown, especially for just 9 games. Now, if they had kept him up longer and/or sat him on the bench the whole time, that would have been a whole other story. but that was not the case. He performed very well (great underlying stats, some of the best on the team), he just didn’t have much puck luck.

  22. digger50 says:

    If we lose Milan with little to show then we are in abit of trouble.

    We will need a 40 point player to replace Milan, a 20 goal scorer to replace Maroon and a versatile fourth line center to replace Letestu. We also need upgrades for Sleppy and some penalty killers with skill. (Though Pakarinen never played that many games.

    That’s just to break even! That’s just to meet last years roster and despite our optimisim, last years roster may again bring last years results.

    So that is a pretty tall order. It’s more achievable if we have Milan’s cap dollars to work with, not likely at all if we swap Milan for Dion.

    I’m hoping a core player or two emerge. Yammer, Jessie or a new youngster like Virtanen. Hoping they bring in a Max Domi on a reasonable deal. An AHL star manages the transition to competent NHLer such as Petan or even our own Rattie. And spend last few dollars on a20 goal scorer, Maroon may be the best bet at salary/20 goals. He’s slow but he wins the boards and in front of the net.

    This Milan move could be a blessing, all depends on how Peter manages it.

  23. p3rsonman says:

    I’m on the same boat as most of you – trading Lucic is not the best plan.

    However, I’m getting the vibe that the urgency for this trade is actually coming from Lucic rather than the Oilers. I think he wants out, for whatever reason, and Chia is going to do him that favor even if it costs us.

  24. leadfarmer says:

    If you can give Lucic away then you do it.
    If you have to give a small sweetener then you do it.
    If you have to take a bad contract back then you dont do it. See if he cant recover next year. In a year after July 1st of that year he is only owed 4 mil a year real money for the rest of the contract. Dont need to bring back a boat anchor to get rid of him.

    Hughes and Boqvist are the top 2 d after franchise. Especially High on Hughes.

    If we get Wahlstrom dropping to us that would be amazing. Common, someone draft Hayton in top 9, I promise you will enjoy his leadership and defensive play 🙂

  25. texmex says:

    p3rsonman,

    I agree with this statement 100%. I believe it is family related, just a guess on my behalf.

    It’s not a good sign for the city of Edmonton, the Oilers and future UFA’s.

    Drafting and player development has never been more important

  26. digger50 says:

    Jaxon:
    re: Yamamoto’s development. I don’t agree with many that his 9 game NHL stint hurt his development. He came out, performed well, but couldn’t quite finish (bad luck or just realizing how little time there is to be accurate or how good the goalies are?). I think MacLellan showed confidence in him and he got to experience just how hard the NHL is and how responsible you have to be. Hot got to expereience the daily life of an NHLer, which must be enticing. He got a taste of how much work is required. So what if it affected his play for a while once he got back to junior. He adjusted, worked on some things and turned it around by season’s end. I think he’s probably working on his strength and conditioning this summer with an extra sense of urgency. Maybe even working on his shot and release. He wouldn’t really know what to work on or how important it was without that taste. I think 9 games was perfect. His contract didn’t kick in and he gained valuable experience. If a player is truly harmed by getting a 9 game stint then that player probably won’t or shouldn’t make it. I think this anxiety Oiler fans have about ruining players is a bit overblown, especially for just 9 games. Now, if they had kept him up longer and/or sat him on the bench the whole time, that would have been a whole other story. but that was not the case. He performed very well (great underlying stats, some of the best on the team), he just didn’t have much puck luck.

    Completely agree. It’s very common to entice a player with a few games, let him know what he’s up against. It’s also very common for a player to struggle when they drop down again, I think it’s just mental adjustment.

    I think the harm done was to Jessie P in the message he was receiving as it could be percieved that he was bumped to AHL while Yammer got a shot. These things can be sensitive, but still managed if done correctly. Based on Jessie’s year end comments, he was t all that happy with the season.

  27. Jaxon says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – If they can keep him another year, and he produces like he did pre-Christmas for the season, then his contract is very attractive to cap-conscious team. Next July 1 he has another $3MM bonus, so he’s costing only $4MM/year going forward

    I think you mean “cost-conscious team”, A “cap-conscious team” would not like his $6M cap hit, but the cost-conscious owner may like only paying him $3.5M to $4M.

  28. digger50 says:

    I also believe there is a player sitting at 4RW who is not near his potential.

    If Kassian can be motivated that lessens the shopping list needs. We either have a winger who plays higher in the line up, or give him some linemates and see if they can win thier goal share.

    Can Caggs – Khaira- Kassian win fourth line goal share? Who do we need to bring in for that line?

    Connor – wins goal share
    Leon – can win goal share with at least one good partner
    Strome – needs help
    Kassian – can lead a fourth line with another decent winger and a center who can defend and move the puck.

  29. Jaxon says:

    russ99: And all three of the NMC players are much more tradable and for better returns next summer, with the possible exception of Sekera if the knee injury has some permanent effects on his skating – and then we can put him on the LTIR or buy him out.

    I’m not so sure Russell is more tradeable next summer. One year closer to an expansion draft. His clause doesn’t change form NMC to NTC like Sekera’s. It goes from NMC to Modified NMC with a NTC, meaning he’ll have to be protected in an expansion draft. I think he would be more tradeable now (and that is a big stretch to expect him to waive as I believe he is happy in his home province and his situation on the team). I doubt many teams will take on a $4M NMC for a #5D, no matter how many shots he blocks (overrated stat in my opinion). They may have to buy him out before expansion.

  30. blainer says:

    Lucic is a good trade for a team if we retain $1.5 Mil. I can see lots of teams interested in him if that were to happen.

    I also think we can get more than just cap relief if we retain as he is still young enough to rebound.

    I for one will not miss his give aways. He really struggled last year with very poor decision making when he had the puck.

    I can see him asking for a trade as I think he will play third line this year as he is just not quick enough to play against the elite’s anymore.

    My hope is a trade with LA for a second rounder or a prospect and we retain.

  31. russ99 says:

    Jaxon,

    I disagree. It’s a year before expansion (if it happens then) and GMs are more worried about filling the team in the fall. Also, it doesn’t matter what fans think of his Corsi when it comes time to finding a trade partner, it’s if other GMs and coaches think he fills a need, and NHL coaches and GMs think he has plenty of value.

  32. Woogie63 says:

    Lucic turned 30 on June 7. A couple of nice birthday pictures floated on to Twitter. 30ish people on a boat somewhere beautiful. I could not see an Oiler in any of the pictures.

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    flyfish1168: I agree with you on all your arrows and KY. I wish he did not get his 9 game audition. I feel it was did not help his development. He need to get a good start in the Dub and dominate, that would have been a better development. JMHO

    How did the nine games affect his development? He dominated at his age level last year. Sure, he had a slow start, but that kinda stuff happens all the time. I see a player who progressed from the year before.

  34. Andy Dufresne says:

    “Bob McKenzie to Dustin Nielson (TSN1260): “There’d be lots of teams that would roll the dice on Milan Lucic; but again, you literally would have to give him away in some respects to make a really favorable deal.” Source (Eric will tweet out interview this morning).”

    If we move Lucic and have to as Mckenzie puts it…..”Give him away”….That is a HUGE win for Oilers fans.

    We got him for nothing. He helped inject backbone, leadership and swagger into the orgnization. Now we can basically release him and get out of bad contract.

    This would be a huge move. Ive always beleived the contract was movable two years from now, but to be able to expidite the process of becoming a faster more agile team would be awesome!

    In the right deal, Id be ok/happy if the sweetner was the 71 pick.

    Mckenzie doesnt even mention a sweetner, and if thats the case Id even be OK with trading for Phaneuf. Wish his contract was only two years instead of three, but he is 33yrs old, has been relatively healthy for the last 5 seasons and has scored at a 25-30pt pace for those same 5 years. He can play right side or left side. You play him 20 minutes a night against the bigger more physical teams (middle pair, bottom pair), and 15 mintes a night (bottom pair) against faster finesse style teams.

    The cost to buy him out of the third/last year of the contract would be pretty minimal (compared to Lucic) , and he would almost certainly waive and not have to be protected in the upcoming expansion draft.

    McKenzie doesnt even mention a sweetner….so if its Lucic for Phanuef straight up then, on balance, that seems ok.

    For me its partly about mitigating risk. If we keep Lucic for one more year, hoping for a rebound and that rebound doesnt occur, it just gets much harder to move him.

  35. Side says:

    Woogie63:
    Lucic turned 30 on June 7.A couple of nice birthday pictures floated on to Twitter.30ish people on a boat somewhere beautiful.I could not see an Oiler in any of the pictures.

    Should there be Oilers in the picture? It’s the off season. I imagine most players fly to their homes in other countries/provinces and spend time with their families before the season starts.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Speeds DM’s me about offer sheeting either Montour or Kase in ANA given that they only have 17 players signed with $9.2MM in cap space.

    I like Montour and I like Kase a ton. I think Kase will be premier RW for a long time in the NHL so….

    DOUBLE OFFER SHEET TIME!!!

    Montour offer $4.0 (compensation 2nd rounder)
    Kase offer $5.5 (compensation 1st and 3rd)

    Suck on that Murray!!!

    Fuck the Ducks.

    Fuck em.

    Thoughts?

    (yes I know there is no room for both, but you won’t get both….)

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    If we move Lucic and have to as Mckenzie puts it…..”Give him away”….That is a HUGE win for Oilers fans.

    Couldn’t even get a 7th?

    *ducks*

  38. Marc says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Depending on whether this Lucic thing is real (seems like there is a desire for sure), and depending on what the return is: it would be a massive fail by the organization

    – Looking at Capfriendly: if you assume we pay him his “bonus” of $3.5MM, July 1st total cash outlay for new team is only $3.5MM this year

    – Then for the next 4 years, he’s owed $19MM in cash, vs a $6MM AAV

    – If they can keep him another year, and he produces like he did pre-Christmas for the season, then his contract is very attractive to cap-conscious team.Next July 1 he has another $3MM bonus, so he’s costing only $4MM/yeargoing forward

    – I always though that was the play: easy to trade later in contract

    – One more year: have him recover.Sit down with the family, come up with a game plan.

    – Whatever you get back for Lucic and whatever else you might have to give up, it’s just not going to be as good as what Lucic should do this year IMO

    The reason for trading Lucic now is more about limiting downside risk than anything else. The structure of his contract means that if you buy him out you gain virtually no savings against the cap. That means that if he has another bad year ie. bad enough that teams’s don’t think he’s worth having even at $3.5-4M per year, then the Oilers are likely stuck with him and his $6M cap hit for 4 more years.

    To my mind the upside of him bouncing back (and he should, given that his shooting percentage was like 1% during the second half of the season) and scoring 15-20 points more than whoever replaces him on the Oilers 3rd line isn’t worth the downside of potentially being stuck with a declining and unhappy player with a $6M cap hit for 4 more years.

    So if you can move him, you do.

  39. knighttown says:

    The only absolute about the top 10 in the NHL draft is that it will NOT unfold as we expect it to. I went back and looked at the last 6 NHL drafts and an average of 4 players; 2 risers and 2 fallers change from consensus Top 10’s. I used “mynhldraft” who does consensus first rounds from Pronmon, ISS, Button etc.

    2017:
    Vilardi ranked 4th went 11th
    Necas ranked 8th went 12th
    Lias Andersson ranked 16th went 7th
    Rasmusson ranked 12th went 9th

    2016:
    Brown fell 6 to 11
    Jost rose from 11 to 10

    2015:
    Crouse fell 8th to 11th
    Barzal fell 9 to 16
    Zacha jumped 11 to 6
    Meier jumped 13 to 9

    2014:
    Perlini fell from 6 to 12
    Virtanen rose from 13 to 6

    2013:
    Horvat rose from 12 to 9
    Zadorov fell from 9 to 16

    2012:
    Forsberg fell from 2 to 11!
    Grigorenko fell from 4 to 12
    Teravainen fell from 7 to 18
    Koekoek jumped from 19 to 10
    Hampuis L from 16 to 6
    Pouliot from 17 to 8

    The thing is, it isn’t clear that going with consensus is the better play. By my rough estimate, it’s dead even in that the team “reaching” did as well as the team “letting a player fall”; 9 good decisions and 9 bad.

    Barzal and Forsberg are two clear times consensus was the right play.

    Reaching for Hampuis was brilliant as was letting Grigorenko, Perlini and Zadorov fall.

    So now what will happen in 2018? Since final lists aren’t all published I’m sort of guessing at consensus:
    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Zadina
    4. Tkachuk
    5. Hughes
    6. Dobson
    7. Wahlstrom
    8. Bouchard
    9. Boqvist
    10. Kotkaniemi

    History shows:
    1. No one in the top 3 will fall out of the top 10. Last was Forsberg.
    2. The average fall is about 4 so we should be looking at names like Bouchard, Boqvist and Kotkaniemi
    3. The average rise is a bit bigger…probably 5…because teams fall in love with a guy and have only the one shot. Names like Hayton, Smith, Veleno and Farabee

    Who falls?
    Who reaches and for what player?

    My guess is Edmonton is the only player to reach and Boqvist falls.

  40. Jaxon says:

    russ99:
    Jaxon,

    I disagree. It’s a year before expansion (if it happens then) and GMs are more worried about filling the team in the fall. Also, it doesn’t matter what fans think of his Corsi when it comes time to finding a trade partner, it’s if other GMs and coaches think he fills a need, and NHL coaches and GMs think he has plenty of value.

    Fair points. Maybe I’m making expansion worries more of a deal tha they actually are.

  41. Jaxon says:

    knighttown: The only absolute about the top 10 in the NHL draft is that it will NOT unfold as we expect it to. I went back and looked at the last 6 NHL drafts and an average of 4 players; 2 risers and 2 fallers change from consensus Top 10’s. I used “mynhldraft” who does consensus first rounds from Pronmon, ISS, Button etc.

    Nice analysis, thanks!

  42. PennersPancakes says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Couldn’t even get a 7th?

    If we get a 7th we could even draft our own Kase!

    Heres hoping Gretzky can find some diamonds in the rough (I think hes done great so far), but when was the last time the Oilers had a late round gem. Does Rieder in the 4th count? Kyle Brodziak in the 7th? Matthew Lombardi in the 7th? I only went to the 2000 draft but the sad thing Brodziak only played 2 seasons with the Oilers and the other 2 didn’t even sign. Found a couple late round picks only for other teams to reap the benefits.

  43. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Andy Dufresne,

    If we move Lucic and have to as Mckenzie puts it…..”Give him away”….That is a HUGE win for Oilers fans.

    Couldn’t even get a 7th?

    *ducks*

    Question for ya.

    All other factors in a trade being equal, would you want to trade Lucic to an Eastern team or a Western Team? Meaning, given how much of a liability he is at times exiting his own zone, not back checking / trapped deep in the offensive zone, etc, would it possibly be “beneficial” to line up against him more often as opposed to less often?? If the “enforcer” effect is no longer a thing in todays NHL, then would we really have anything to fear?

  44. Marc says:

    If, as rumoured, Lucic is cooperating in finding a trade destination because he and/or his family aren’t happy in Edmonton, then I’d be shocked if he signs off on a deal to Ottawa.

    Which is good, because it should rule out Phaneuf or Ryan as the return.

    I suspect he ends up in one of the small market US teams that weren’t playoff teams last year ie. Arizona, Carolina, Florida. They could talk themselves into his size/grit/leadership, wouldn’t have a problem with the $6M cap hit and would likely appreciate the value of a 5 year $22.5M contract, which is effectively what he’ll be on after July 1.

  45. PennersPancakes says:

    Marc: Which is good, because it should rule out Phaneuf or Ryan as the return.

    Just a reminder Phaneuf is actually in L.A now as part of the Gaborik deal in which Ottawa retained 25% of his salary.

  46. Andy Dufresne says:

    knighttown,

    Nice work. Thanks.

    IMO your work supports the idea that there is a significant probability that a player or two that we perceive as a top 7 pick will be available to the Oilers at 10.

    IMO the idea of an Oiler reach is low. Unless you consider someone like Ty Smith a reach.

    If anything I see the Oilers moving up one or two spots ( Chicago or Rangers) if there is a player there at 8or9 that they value highly enough.

  47. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am against a sweetner to get rid of Lucic and I’m against taking back and equally bad contract to get rid of Lucic.I am definitely against adding both together.

    I would be much more apt to retain salary, say $1.5M – is Lucic not tradeable at a cap hit of $4.5M?

    What about after July 1 and the $3.5M bonus is paid – for an internal budget team, his high cap hit vis-a-vis actual money paid in the last 5 years could be attractive.

    I’m not as against Phaneuf as a return as, at $5.25M, is it really that bad of a contract?

    Of course, one of the leftorium would need to go and I am NOT OK with trading 77 to make room for Phaneuf.

    The team is far better off keeping Lucic than trading him for Ryan or Phaneuf. There is no upside,or cap relief with either deal. They need a deal that creats enough cap room to fit a top six winger for Drai.

  48. Brantford Boy says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The more “Brantford” on this team the better… always was, always is…

  49. John Chambers says:

    How much would you be willing to pay to acquire Nic Petan?

    If the Jets wanted the #40 puck I think you’d have to strongly consider it.

  50. Oilman99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Speeds DM’s me about offer sheeting either Montour or Kase in ANA given that they only have 17 players signed with $9.2MM in cap space.

    I like Montour and I like Kase a ton.I think Kase will be premier RW for a long time in the NHL so….

    DOUBLE OFFER SHEET TIME!!!

    Montour offer $4.0 (compensation 2nd rounder)
    Kase offer $5.5 (compensation 1st and 3rd)

    Suck on that Murray!!!

    Fuck the Ducks.

    Fuck em.

    Thoughts?

    (yes I know there is no room for both, but you won’t get both….)

    Great plan, anything that screws the ducks is a good thing.

  51. --hudson-- says:

    I wonder if anybody in Tampa thinks they could’ve used a Lucic in their series against the Bruins or Caps? One good thing about Lucic is you’d expect him to counter the Marchands and Tom Wilson’s of the league.

    Tampa is tight to the cap so you’d need to be creative to get it to work.

  52. Andy Dufresne says:

    I know this is obvious, but maybe worth stating anyway, the idea of giving away Lucic for “nothing” is not what it sounds like. This is the cap-era. You are “giving away” Lucic for a return of $6m in cap space.

    If some team will take him along with 40th oveall pick say in exchange for a minor league contract, that is a win IMO.

  53. Andy Dufresne says:

    –hudson–:
    I wonder if anybody in Tampa thinks they could’ve used a Lucic in their series against the Bruins or Caps?One good thing about Lucic is you’d expect him to counter the Marchands and Tom Wilson’s of the league.

    Tampa is tight to the cap so you’d need to be creative to get it to work.

    Same thing could be said of Vegas, although to a lesser degree. its just VERY HARD for me to imagine slow footed Lucic keeping up with the pace of play that Tampa and Vegas thrive on. But you never know.

  54. John Chambers says:

    –hudson–,

    So Lucic for Ryan Callahan?

  55. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sure. Just make sure that you get Nurse and JP signed first.

    Then blast those ducks with your self-styled double barrell shot gun!

  56. Oilman99 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    What are the odds Looch has a bounce back year? Dustin Brown was horrible for a few years and returned to form last season. Similar player styles, similar dip in performance relative to established history, similar age.

    Would the fanbase or management have the patience to wait for a rebound?

    The difference is, Brown has the wheels to keep up with the pace of play.

  57. PennersPancakes says:

    Oilman99: The team is far better off keeping Lucic than trading him for Ryan or Phaneuf.

    Respectfully disagree. 50+ point Lucic and I totally agree but his 2016-17 season was salvaged by PP work and 2017-2018 was a tire fire. Getting 34 points with that much playing time with McDavid and Drai. Ill admit I’m still confused by the December drop off because he was a different player up until then.

    Trading 30 pt Lucic for 30 pt Phaneuf is a slightly less expensive slightly shorter contract for a left handed dman who plays right side anyways and can work a powerplay. Yes you need another winger, yes you probably want to move Sekera and or Russell to make space for that player but unless last season was a complete anomaly Lucic isn’t adapting to the new speed and style of the NHL. His play over the last 40 games should have gotten him a seat in the pressbox and if not for the cap hit/NMC should have seen the AHL.

  58. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50: Completely agree. It’s very common to entice a player with a few games, let him know what he’s up against. It’s also very common for a player to struggle when they drop down again, I think it’s just mental adjustment.

    I think the harm done was to Jessie P in the message he was receiving as it could be percieved that he was bumped to AHL while Yammer got a shot. These things can be sensitive, but still managed if done correctly. Based on Jessie’s year end comments, he was t all that happy with the season.

    Yammer outplayed JP in the preseason bigtime. In fact, he was one of the best players in the league during the preseason. Surely JP could see this. So the only message to JP is that if you want to play in the NHL you have to be better than Yammer. And he wasn’t.

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “Bob McKenzie to Dustin Nielson (TSN1260): “There’d be lots of teams that would roll the dice on Milan Lucic; but again, you literally would have to give him away in some respects to make a really favorable deal.” Source (Eric will tweet out interview this morning).”

    If we move Lucic and have to as Mckenzie puts it…..”Give him away”….That is a HUGE win for Oilers fans.

    We got him for nothing. He helped inject backbone, leadership and swagger into the orgnization. Now we can basically release him and get out of bad contract.

    This would be a huge move. Ive always beleived the contract was movable two years from now, but to be able to expidite the process of becoming a faster more agile team would be awesome!

    In the right deal, Id be ok/happy if the sweetner was the 71 pick.

    Mckenzie doesnt even mention a sweetner, and if thats the caseId even be OK with trading for Phaneuf. Wish his contract was only two years instead of three, but he is 33yrs old, has been relatively healthy for the last 5 seasons and has scored at a 25-30pt pace for those same 5 years. He can play right side or left side. You play him 20 minutes a night against the bigger more physical teams (middle pair, bottom pair), and 15 mintes a night (bottom pair) against faster finesse style teams.

    The cost to buy him out of the third/last year of the contract would be pretty minimal (compared to Lucic) , and he would almost certainly waive and not have to be protected in the upcoming expansion draft.

    McKenzie doesnt even mention a sweetner….so if its Lucic for Phanuef straight up then, on balance,that seems ok.

    For me its partly about mitigating risk. If we keep Lucic for one more year, hoping for a rebound and that rebound doesnt occur, it just gets much harder to move him.

    Does Phaneuf still have a NMC? If he does, I really doubt he’s coming here or to any Canadian team.

  60. Marc says:

    PennersPancakes: Just a reminder Phaneuf is actually in L.A now as part of the Gaborik deal in which Ottawa retained 25% of his salary.

    Whoops! Forgot about that.

    So the Ottawa factor should rule out Gaborik and Ryan.

    I have a hard time believing that LA would be interested in a Lucic-Phaneuf deal to be honest. Their problem has been that they were old, slow and struggled to score. Not sure they’ll see five years of lucic as the answer to that.

  61. edwards_daddy says:

    Evan Bouchard looks like an almost too perfect fit for the Oilers.

  62. deardylan says:

    JimmyV1965: Yammer outplayed JP in the preseason bigtime.

    Hey JimmyV!

    Enjoy reading your posts.

    So what do you think will happen in the 2018 pre-season? Will anyone outplay Yammer? Will JP outplay the new draft picks?

  63. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Same thing could be said of Vegas, although to a lesser degree. its just VERY HARD for me to imagine slow footed Lucic keeping up with the pace of play that Tampa and Vegas thrive on. But you never know.

    How much faster is Perron than Lucic? I remember Perron being very slow. Again, there’s a difference between skating fast and playing fast.

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    deardylan: Hey JimmyV!

    Enjoy reading your posts.

    So what do you think will happen in the 2018 pre-season?Will anyone outplay Yammer?Will JP outplay the new draft picks?

    No idea. I’m not even sure I’m on board with keeping the rookIes up for nine genes. But I remember Yammer was an absolute beast in the preseason and he earned his nine games. I guess that says something about the value of preseason play. Even then Yammer played well in his nine games. At least for the first four or five anyway.

  65. Andy Dufresne says:

    edwards_daddy:
    Evan Bouchard looks like an almost too perfect fit for the Oilers.

    Hes one of the guys I can the Oilers moving up to 8 or 9 to get if neccessary.

  66. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The two players that I think are likely to be considered by the Oilers at 10 have concerns:

    – Boquist – concussion history – 2 in a year

    – Smith – under-performed in big games/tournaments against the top competition

    Small players rely on familiarity with their teammates more than other players (to compensate for their lack of size). In the prospect game and tournaments, one is less familiar with your teammates.

    I have not watched Smith or the prospects much, but Smith’s game may rely a lot on anticipation, knowing what his teammates are going to do. May account for the poorer play in tournaments. i.e. He can play fast when he knows what his teammates.

    Just an hypothesis.

  67. Andy Dufresne says:

    JimmyV1965: How much faster is Perron than Lucic? I remember Perron being very slow. Again, there’s a difference between skating fast and playing fast.

    True. 2017-18 I saw Lucic as slow feet, slow hand, slow mind. Perhaps it was mostly a matter of lost confidence. A half second in todays NHL seems like a big deal.

  68. adamjames2 says:

    Rishaug outlined a couple of good points on his Twitter timeline with rationale on the Looch talk.

    “unless they are big game hunting for a fix on the blue-line and his money is in the way of doing something bigger. We shall see.”

    If this is the case.. Who is the big game? Carlson? Package for OEL? If Carlson is getting $8M+ in free agency as some have mentioned, wouldn’t that same money be better spent on OEL if a deal can be had with Arizona?

  69. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    What are the odds Looch has a bounce back year? Dustin Brown was horrible for a few years and returned to form last season. Similar player styles, similar dip in performance relative to established history, similar age.

    Would the fanbase or management have the patience to wait for a rebound?

    Dustin Brown needed a new coach to bounce back. McLellan is still here.

    With Lucic’s contract, it is no loss if the Oilers don’t get much of anything for him. The cap space in itself is valuable.

    Better to move on if one can.

  70. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    Lucic turned 30 on June 7.A couple of nice birthday pictures floated on to Twitter.30ish people on a boat somewhere beautiful.I could not see an Oiler in any of the pictures.

    Andrew Ference all over again.

  71. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    How much would you be willing to pay to acquire Nic Petan?

    If the Jets wanted the #40 puck I think you’d have to strongly consider it.

    Pick him up off the waiver wire. The #40 woud be an overpay for a player you can probably get on waivers. It would have to be a lower round pick for a trade.

  72. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Its not even Lucic’s speed that was the issue. He could not take or make a pass the second half of the year which is odd cause he is normally decent in that department.
    Hard to play a modern speed game when you skate in quick sand and pucks bounce of your stick

  73. Bag of Pucks says:

    One of the things that I like about Chiarelli that separates him from his predecessors (MacT, Tambellini, Lowe) is he moves sooner rather than later to part ways with a player trending downward. I like that kind of decisiveness in a GM.

    A defining trait of the OBC regime was waffling on players once they started trending downward in the hopes that they’d recover form. It almost never happened and what you saw instead was the asset value steadily declining to the point where the org was continually dumping players for pennies on the dollar.

    Rare was the trade (Smid and Tarnstrom come to mind) where an Oiler GM was actually savvy enough to part ways with a player shortly before the player performance started to decline precipitously.

    Sports is very much a what have you done for me lately industry. Waiting month on month or worse, year on year, for underperforming players to self-correct is a sure recipe for losing imo. Especially when your only investment with the player has been FA $s. Draft picks naturally should get a little more patience and latitude.

  74. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: Yammer outplayed JP in the preseason bigtime. In fact, he was one of the best players in the league during the preseason. Surely JP could see this. So the only message to JP is that if you want to play in the NHL you have to be better than Yammer. And he wasn’t.

    No, KY was not remotely one of the best players in the league during the preseason. He started off the preseason against AHL level competition well, and became less impactful game by game.as the competition became more NHL calibre.

  75. godot10 says:

    edwards_daddy:
    Evan Bouchard looks like an almost too perfect fit for the Oilers.

    If one is drafting a defensemen high, he should be a plus skater.

  76. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “DOUBLE OFFER SHEET TIME!!!

    Montour offer $4.0 (compensation 2nd rounder)
    Kase offer $5.5 (compensation 1st and 3rd)”

    Only Montour. As Edm can live with the comp if it happened. a 1st & a 3rd is pretty rich. WE need cheap young talent

  77. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I want no part of Dion Phaneuf.

    Here a pipe dream.

    1. Lucic with $850 K retained, Russell and the 2018 2nd to Vancouver for Tanev & Van’s 2018 3rd.

    2. Lucic with $1.85 Million retained to LA for Rieder and LA’s 2018 3rd (due to retained salary).

    3. LA gets Looch for $3.3 Million/ yr. E’rybody Wins!!!

    See….. Fantasy GMing is easy peasy!

  78. J-Bo says:

    I think that we are viewing Lucic through the crazy Oiler lens in which we often overrate and underrate players. I think he has more value in the marketplace then we think. I don’t think we are going to have to add a sweetner and take a bad contract. I think the deal will be much more palletable then that. JMHO.

  79. ArmchairGM says:

    Brantford Boy:
    I see Bouchard as the one losing value for some reason… think Phoenix selects Dobson…

    I’m about to do a few things I don’t do on this blog:

    1.Bringing up the Hall trade – Surprisingly everyone has been pretty content with the thought of sending Lucic packing, which I agree it would be great, if not for his down year and selling low, and there is a good chance he will return to past results.Wasn’t this guy signed to replace Hall, or was it to bring in Larsson, I’m confused.

    2. Swear – Fuck!Are you kidding me, trading Lucic already!I suppose this admits complete failure by the GM or the player asked for a trade (the latter is the rumour at the moment).

    3.Post comment from previous LT threads – ArmchairGM: As for the point tables thread from yesterday, I realize you were not judging me, I had to google myself (lame) to find the information from the previous post.It was actually yourself and DOUG MCLACHLAN (kudos on the information again) that were having the discussion I piped in on.Ironically it the same information VOR was posting yesterday but without all the data behind the numbers.If you want to review the thread, here’s the link:
    https://lowetide.ca/2018/04/20/pet-sounds-3/#comment-737133

    *blush*

    Haha, I’d forgotten about that conversation. Although I haven’t had a chance to study the theory and methodology behind the numbers, they simply don’t ring true. The numbers indicate that #1 is worth #10 + #20, which is obviously bunk.

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Pick him up off the waiver wire.The #40 woud be an overpay for a player you can probably get on waivers.It would have to be a lower round pick for a trade.

    Why in the world would they put Petan on waivers? There would be a long line of teams willing to trade for him.

  81. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    JimmyV1965,

    Its not even Lucic’s speed that was the issue.He could not take or make a pass the second half of the year which is odd cause he is normally decent in that department.
    Hard to play a modern speed game when you skate in quick sand and pucks bounce of your stick

    👍

  82. Professor Q says:

    godot10: If one is drafting a defensemen high, he should be a plus skater.

    As Bouchard is.

  83. Primetime says:

    godot10: Dustin Brown needed a new coach to bounce back.McLellan is still here.

    Milan needs a new coach to give him even MORE time with 2 of the best players in the world? To keep him on PP1 even though he hadn’t scored since the stone age?

    Lots to criticize McLellan for, but giving Lucic opportunity isn’t one of them. In fact he tried his best to help him to the detriment of the team…

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: Not including KY’s performance in the NHL in your analysis?

    I wasn’t overly impressed with his performance in the NHL – I thought his possession numbers and shot metrics didn’t meet up with the eye test on his play. Lets not forget who his center was.

    He missed on a couple glorious chances (one gimme I remember).

    He did show nice hockey IQ and a “great stick” on the forecheck but he wasn’t ready for the NHL, in my opinion, and shouldn’t have been playing.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m still arrows up on this prospect but it was a very up and down season for him.

  85. ArmchairGM says:

    edwards_daddy:
    Evan Bouchard looks like an almost too perfect fit for the Oilers.

    Detroit fans are in love with him too though, so he may not last until #10.

  86. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Marc: The reason for trading Lucic now is more about limiting downside risk than anything else. The structure of his contract means that if you buy him out you gain virtually no savings against the cap. That means that if he has another bad year ie. bad enough that teams’s don’t think he’s worth having even at $3.5-4M per year, then the Oilers are likely stuck with him and his $6M cap hit for 4 more years.

    To my mind the upside of him bouncing back (and he should, given that his shooting percentage was like 1% during the second half of the season) and scoring 15-20points more than whoever replaces him on the Oilers 3rd line isn’t worth the downside of potentially being stuck with a declining and unhappy player with a $6M cap hit for 4 more years.

    So if you can move him, you do.

    – it’s interesting we see the same potential upside/rebound potential in Lucic yet arrive at different conclusions about what they should do

    – I guess it will depend on what potential return is available as the organization evaluated the down side possible you highlight with the likelihood of a rebound

    – he’s a lot lot cheaper next year and if he plays like he did pre Christmas next year it’s a lot of better. A question of risk reward.

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: If one is drafting a defensemen high, he should be a plus skater.

    I beleive he is. Just not an elite skater.

  88. B.C.B says:

    LT,

    regarding a Lucic for Eriksson trade, could the Oilers structure it like Pitt’s Brassard trade? Getting a 3rd team involved to pick up some cap hit? Lucic + Caggiula (and a pick for the 3rd team) for an Eriksson at 4.5 million doesn’t sound like a bad deal to me.
    Eriksson’s contract is like Lucic’s, as well: i.e all signing bonuses. Specifically, Eriksson’ salary is $1million 2018-19 to 2020-21 before going up to $3million in the last year of the contract. If retained salary doesn’t include the signing bonuses, the 3rd team would be picking up the cap hit (which some teams are not going to uses) but would have very little cash pay out. Maybe the pick would not have to be as valuable?

  89. knighttown says:

    I’m quite surprised at the change in tone around here with Lucic. Two months ago it was beyond anyone’s wildest scenario that we could unload him for “free” and now that there’s some sign that’s possible we’re reverting back to fanmode and expecting an actual return.

    That feels disingenuous to me.

    I’ll be more consistent. If you can lose the Lucic contract this summer for anything less than the #10 as a sweetener I’d be ecstatic. I could even live with the second rounder going.

    The return on this trade is the cap space.

    Put it this way…would you trade a second rounder to “the NHL” if it meant we could spend an extra 6 million over the Cap for the next 5 years? I’d do it in a flash and would pay considerably more.

    What this team could do with 6 x 5….

  90. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am against a sweetner to get rid of Lucic and I’m against taking back and equally bad contract to get rid of Lucic.I am definitely against adding both together.

    I would be much more apt to retain salary, say $1.5M – is Lucic not tradeable at a cap hit of $4.5M?

    What about after July 1 and the $3.5M bonus is paid – for an internal budget team, his high cap hit vis-a-vis actual money paid in the last 5 years could be attractive.

    I’m not as against Phaneuf as a return as, at $5.25M, is it really that bad of a contract?

    Of course, one of the leftorium would need to go and I am NOT OK with trading 77 to make room for Phaneuf.

    OP:
    In a previous thread you informed that payment of the $3.5 bonus prior to a Lucic trade would not be charged against the Oilers’ 2018/19 Cap. The full $6 million Cap hit would travel with the player. It strikes me that the Oilers could use this to manipulate the Cap to their advantage.
    Option 1: The Oilers retain $1.5 for 5 years ($7.5 total) to trade Lucic. The acquiring team gets Lucic at a cap hit of $4.5 with an annual average salary + bonus of $3.7 remaining; however, $5.5 is then payable by that team in year 1.
    Option 2: The Oilers pay the $3.5 bonus on July 1st, then trade Lucic with $800k retained ($7.5 total).
    The acquiring team gets Lucic with a cap hit of $5.2 instead of $4.5 and the same annual average commitment of $3.7, but only have to pay him $2.7 in year 1. The Oilers benefit with a reduced annual cap hit of $800k instead of $1.5.

    This could be attractive to a team like Carolina and result in a better trade return for the Oilers.

  91. digger50 says:

    JimmyV1965: Yammer outplayed JP in the preseason bigtime. In fact, he was one of the best players in the league during the preseason. Surely JP could see this. So the only message to JP is that if you want to play in the NHL you have to be better than Yammer. And he wasn’t.

    No, I don’t know that Yammer could be considered a beast in any fashion. Points wise he was outplayed in the early preseason by Chad Butcher wasn’t he? So really we can’t draw conclusions based on that preseason, let alone best player in the league.

    In context this wasn’t about about straight performance. It’s about coaching a punitive style vs supportive style. Coach knew or should have known Yammer would not stick past 9 games. Reward him is fine. My pint is that it could have been viewed as punitive from Jessies perspective. Punishing one player was unproductive.

  92. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Getting rid of Lucic this summer for nothing would be a huge deal.

    =

    McDavid / RNH / Yamamoto
    Drai / JVR / Puljujarvi
    3rd line? I’m lost…
    Khaira / Kassian / Aberg

  93. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: No, KY was not remotely one of the best players in the league during the preseason.He started off the preseason against AHL level competition well, and became less impactful game by game.as the competition became more NHL calibre.

    That’s not the way I saw it at all. He didn’t score in his last preseason game, but he did in his second last game. And he looked good early in his nine-game tryout. It wasn’t until about the fifth or sixth game when it became apparent he didn’t belong.

  94. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wasn’t overly impressed with his performance in the NHL – I thought his possession numbers and shot metrics didn’t meet up with the eye test on his play. Lets not forget who his center was.

    He missed on a couple glorious chances (one gimme I remember).

    He did show nice hockey IQ and a “great stick” on the forecheck but he wasn’t ready for the NHL, in my opinion, and shouldn’t have been playing.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m still arrows up on this prospect but it was a very up and down season for him.

    That’s reasonable.

    I thought KY was performing better than some other wingers on the team. But, still not sure if that was an indication of KY’s ability to perform in the NHL or if he only looked that way because the other wingers were playing fairly poorly right out of the gate.

  95. Scungilli Slushy says:

    PC should send Tom Wilson a gift basket. Each Cup we see teams vere left or right like a herd of lemmings copying the latest winner.

    I’m sure truculence that can play will be on wish lists moving forward. Lucic has a lot of road left on his rep before he is considered ‘done’. Teams brought in size last season such as the Pens and paid for it, and Lucic is a better player until he proves he can’t recover some or all of his game.

    System fit plays into it as well. LA might be a good fit because of their centres and style.

    I’m thinking Klef and Luc are the big moves, sadly for Klef

  96. leadfarmer says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur,

    I think JVR will be in the next line of long term UFA contracts signed with very quick regret like the Ladd, Okposo, Lucic, Erickson contracts. Slow skater. Not going to age well.
    I’m guessing if Chia gets cap space he will sign Neal to a contract which will also fit the category of being regretted very quickly after signing

  97. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50: No, I don’t know that Yammer could be considered a beast in any fashion. Points wise he was outplayed in the early preseason by Chad Butcher wasn’t he? So really we can’t draw conclusions based on that preseason, let alone best player in the league.

    In context this wasn’t about about straight performance. It’s about coaching a punitive style vs supportive style. Coach knew or should have known Yammer would not stick past 9 games. Reward him is fine. My pint is that it could have been viewed as punitive from Jessies perspective. Punishing one player was unproductive.

    I believe your original point was JP having a negative reaction to being sent down, while Yammer stayed up with the big club. And my retort was how is that possible because Yammer outplayed him bigtime. Am I missing something here? This site and every site I visit was absolutely bonkers about Yammer in the preseason. I believe he led the league in goals scored.

    Should he have been sent down regardless? Sure. I have no problem with it. But he definitely earned his stay. And he played well early in his nine game stint.

    JP was sent down to work on his game. Why is that punishment? He finished the previous season in the AHL. I would think that being sent down to start the next season would be an extension of that development.

  98. Connoreah says:

    Jaxon,

    With respect Jaxon, I didn’t ask your opinion on anything nor do I care about your opinion on anything. If I want to know what you think, I’ll ask you. But I don’t. So kindly ignore me if you don’t like my comment, the same way I ignore you (unless you’re lobbing insults at me unprovoked). Thanks!

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    Lucic turned 30 on June 7.A couple of nice birthday pictures floated on to Twitter.30ish people on a boat somewhere beautiful.I could not see an Oiler in any of the pictures.

    I was also looking to see another Oiler in the picture and did not see one – kind of jives with the narrative from that SN interview that he’s had trouble adjusting to life in Edmonton and to being a father without the ability to go out with his teammates.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/the-interview-milan-lucic-on-oilers-mcdavid-gretzky/

  100. blainer says:

    The UFA market almost always seems to be an overpay IMO. It takes quite a while for these players to get there and a lot of times it is in their late twenties when they begin to decline.

    I really thought that we would get three good solid years from looch but we coudn’t even get that.

    I agree with Leadfarmer that UFA is a very risky place to shop. Even Sekera’s deal looks bad now. Same with Russell. It’s too bad but teams drive up theses prices by bidding against each other and the worst part about these deals is ALWAYS the term.

    The one deal that seems to be paying off is Staal in Minny. A rare good deal. I’m sure there are some good ones out there but it looks like we got nailed on a Clarkson deal after all. Here is hoping we can find someone still high on Looch with us retaining around $1.2 Mil.

    I agree that Neal and JVR will be just like Looch and hope we pass on those two. We need to find a decent deal out there. A PK center who can play wing win faceoff’s and pot us 35 to 40 pts and come in on no longer than a three year term

    Damn near impossible in FA. We need to find the Letestu from two years ago. Not sure who that is but thats where I would be shopping.

  101. Thor762 says:

    Primetime: Milan needs a new coach to give him even MORE time with 2 of the best players in the world?To keep himon PP1 even though he hadn’t scored since the stone age?

    Lots to criticize McLellan for, but giving Lucic opportunity isn’t one of them.In fact he tried his best to help him to the detriment of the team…

    And that’s why getting Lucic off the team, however they manage it, is a positive for the team. McDavid would have probably won the Rocket Richard trophy as well if he wasn’t forced to drag Lucic along most of the season. Or wasted PP time because the stubborn coach HAD to have Lucic on the ice.

    Addition by subtraction.

  102. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: I think Hayton is a complete center, so it is more about what he is than what Dellandrea is not.

    I think his skating is somewhat suspect or he would be a hands down top ten pick. Skating is a big deal especially for a center. His right up sounds somewhat familiar to Platzer of 6 years ago.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: No, KY was not remotely one of the best players in the league during the preseason.He started off the preseason against AHL level competition well, and became less impactful game by game.as the competition became more NHL calibre.

    Quoted for truth (or at least my agreement) – as anticipated, Yamamoto’s positive impact on games was less and less as the pre-season went on.

    In my opinion, he got his 9 game shot out of necessity and lack of depth and the desire to get JP to Bakersfield to work on certain parts of his game away from the puck.

  104. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    If chatter about Hall’s character is off bounds based on (minimal) evidence than surely speculation on Lucic’s motivation based on a picture of him on a boat is equally useless.

    Was said boat located in the Gulf of Tonkin?

  105. bendelson says:

    blainer: The one deal that seems to be paying off is Staal in Minny. A rare good deal.

    The two year $3.5M contract worked out very well last year, to be sure.
    Let’s see how it plays out, as there is talk of an extension (?) beyond this upcoming season… and he turns 34 in October.

  106. pts2pndr says:

    JimmyV1965: I believe your original point was JP having a negative reaction to being sent down, while Yammer stayed up with the big club. And my retort was how is that possible because Yammer outplayed him bigtime. Am I missing something here? This site and every site I visit was absolutely bonkers about Yammer in the preseason. I believe he led the league in goals scored.

    Should he have been sent down regardless? Sure. I have no problem with it. But he definitely earned his stay. And he played well early in his nine game stint.

    JP was sent down to work on his game. Why is that punishment? He finished the previous season in the AHL. I would think that being sent down to start the next season would be an extension of that development.

    There were a number of players that had earned ice time with their playoff performance the previous year that were short changed to facilitate ice time for Yamamoto. Slepy and Kassian to name just two. The team went into the regular schedule with no real set lines just put the names in a hat and do a random draw!

  107. Alpine says:

    I think dumping Looch for some cap relief is good, but I wouldn’t want to use that in free agency. You’d need to trade more assets to pick up someone like Niederreiter for the cap space to be used efficiently. Could see some future 1st/2nd rd picks plus guys like Jones or Maksimov moved as bait this summer.

  108. Alpine says:

    You might be able to get Antoine Roussell for relatively cheap this summer to play 3LW. Had a dip in shooting percentage this past year nd only scored 7 goals.

    Usually good for 13-14 EV goals a season. He kills penalties and is known for being a huge pest. Not sure how much his good EV production and shot share numbers are driven by good Cs in Dallas. Looks as if he may have spent some time with Spezza here and there.

    If were looking at FAs, I think this should be the range of players we shop for. Not the Neal/Carlson range.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer:

    I agree with Leadfarmer that UFA is a very risky place to shop. Even Sekera’s deal looks bad now.

    Sekera’s deal only looks bad because he tore his knee up and hasn’t fully recovered (nor has the time past to allow him to fully recover).

    The second before the injury, essentially one year ago, he was arguably the best overall d-man on the team and a huge part of the team’s success.

    Lets not forget he carried Kris Russell playing his off side on a 2nd pairing which was essentially a 1B pairing (our top 4 essentially split the tough even strength minutes).

    ——————-

    The above is one of the reasons I have great hesitation agreeing to any sort of trade of Sekera for minimal return or buyout – we don’t know how he will look come October and then January, however, even if he’s 80%, that’s an important top 4 d-man for this team.

  110. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: he’s had trouble adjusting to… being a father without the ability to go out with his teammates.

    This won’t change in a new town.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thor762: And that’s why getting Lucic off the team, however they manage it, is a positive for the team.McDavid would have probably won the Rocket Richard trophy as well if he wasn’t forced to drag Lucic along most of the season. Or wasted PP time because the stubborn coach HAD to have Lucic on the ice.

    Addition by subtraction.

    Wasn’t quite “most of the season” – McDavid had Lucic on his wing for just under 1/3 of his minutes. PP was close to half.

    Point stands though – it took too long to move Lucic off.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: There were a number of players that had earned ice time with their playoff performance the previous year that were short changed to facilitate ice time for Yamamoto. Slepy and Kassian to name just two. The team went into the regular schedule with no real set lines just put the names in a hat and do a random draw!

    Slep was hurt.

  113. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: Why in the world would they put Petan on waivers? There would be a long line of teams willing to trade for him.

    Petan either makes the Winnipeg roster in the fall or he has to get put on waivers when he gets sent down. Petan was a 2nd round pick. One doesn’t pay original price for an asset that is likely to be on waivers at the end of September.

    And in trading for him, it means you are guaranteeing him a roster spot because he becomes waiver eligible this year.

    One doesn’t trade 2nd round draft picks for waiver eligible tweeners. One claims them on waivers.

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sekera’s deal only looks bad because he tore his knee up and hasn’t fully recovered (nor has the time past to allow him to fully recover).

    The second before the injury, essentially one year ago, he was arguably the best overall d-man on the team and a huge part of the team’s success.

    Lets not forget he carried Kris Russell playing his off side on a 2nd pairing which was essentially a 1B pairing (our top 4 essentially split the tough even strength minutes).

    ——————-

    The above is one of the reasons I have great hesitation agreeing to any sort of trade of Sekera for minimal return or buyout – we don’t know how he will look come October and then January, however, even if he’s 80%, that’s an important top 4 d-man for this team.

    Agreed. Sekera’s contract doesn’t look bad at all; if he never fully recovers THEN it will be bad. Russell’s was bad from the git-go.

  115. anjinsan says:

    The awards are days away.

    How do Katz, Nicholson, and Chiarelli tell one another they are awesome when Hall is crowned MVP and Barzal wins rookie of the year? How do they rationalize that they know what they are doing? And…look the fans in the eye and say we have a plan, buy our tickets?

  116. Lowetide says:

    anjinsan:
    The awards are days away.

    How do Katz, Nicholson, and Chiarelli tell one another they are awesome when Hall is crowned MVP and Barzal wins rookie of the year?How do they rationalize that they know what they are doing?And…look the fans in the eye and say we have a plan, buy our tickets?

    They are most certainly focused on making things better and having a stronger season. Whether all should have returned is an excellent question but the die is cast.

  117. maudite says:

    Milan and small asset for less year contract, with no clauses that screw our expansion protection options:

    Fire russel and lucic NMC to sun if you can.

    If you have to choose:

    I send russel out and keep Lucic. Again if player is demanding out, so be it. But for once do it one team terms for best interest. If he wants out then tell him to give you a hand in trading him out by playing his ass off to up value.

    I think if you figure out a line with him and drai (Milan can pass and forecheck) with a shooter then you could have a decent soft minute line (stack some points up then deal him)

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    If nothing else, Peter Chiarelli continues to show the ability to admit to, and move on from, mistakes.

    He moved on from the mistake acquisitions of Jokinen, Reinhart, Monster, etc.

    Chiarelli isn’t stupid – he knows that in the eyes of the fanbase, the media, the blogging community, etc., the Lucic acquisition is linked to the Hall disposition and he knows that trading Lucic at this point in time is essentially a non-verbal admission of a very large a impactful mistake.

    At the same time, it seems he is willing to the make the move to move on from the player.

    This is an important trait – the ability to look at the team and its assets at the current point in time and evaluate the best way forward, in each case, without taking in to account past history which, essentially, means nothing.

    Hopefully his next move is a successful one.

  119. Marc says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – it’s interesting we see the same potential upside/rebound potential in Lucic yet arrive at different conclusions about what they should do

    – I guess it will depend on what potential return is available as the organization evaluated the down side possible you highlight with the likelihood of a rebound

    – he’s a lot lot cheaper next year and if he plays like he did pre Christmas next year it’s a lot of better. A question of risk reward.

    The Sekera, Russell and Lucic deals were all structured so as to facilitate trades in the last two years of the deal if the Oilers needed cap space and/or their play had fallen off. I’m positive that none of those three players will finish their contract with the Oilers.

    The difference between Sekera and Russell’s deal on the one hand, and Lucic’s on the other, is that the first two can be bought out if their play falls off so badly that they’re effectively untradeable, whereas Lucic cannot be.

    Given that Lucic has had two bad 5v5 years in a row, and just turned 30, that makes his contract a ticking time bomb. If he wants to go, and there are teams interested, then they should jump on that opportunity.

    The payoff won’t be next season – there’s a decent chance that on his next team Lucic outscores whoever replaces him on the Oilers third line by 10+ points. The payoff is in being able to sign Puljujarvi, or Yamamoto or some other player entering the prime of his career to a long term contract instead of having to dump them for picks/prospects because Lucic is squatting in their cap space.

  120. PennersPancakes says:

    ArmchairGM: Sekera’s contract doesn’t look bad at all; if he never fully recovers THEN it will be bad.

    Agreed. Could be said about any player though with a surgery requiring injury. Careers can and have been derailed/ended because of injuries. Think ACL isn’t the worst injury out there so fans are probably overreacting, like at least give him more time to hobble this season together. As other posters have said, in 2016-2017 he was this teams best defenseman and imo even at 80% is still an NHL player.

  121. blainer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sekera’s deal only looks bad because he tore his knee up and hasn’t fully recovered (nor has the time past to allow him to fully recover).

    The second before the injury, essentially one year ago, he was arguably the best overall d-man on the team and a huge part of the team’s success.

    Lets not forget he carried Kris Russell playing his off side on a 2nd pairing which was essentially a 1B pairing (our top 4 essentially split the tough even strength minutes).

    ——————-

    The above is one of the reasons I have great hesitation agreeing to any sort of trade of Sekera for minimal return or buyout – we don’t know how he will look come October and then January, however, even if he’s 80%, that’s an important top 4 d-man for this team.

    I actually agree on this. I do think and hope he gets back to being as close to what he was.

    I am not sure how the injury will be next year but sure would make a big difference to get this player back to the player he was in 2016/17 ..

    If they can pair him with someone other than Russell I think it might help him..

  122. John Chambers says:

    godot10: Petan either makes the Winnipeg roster in the fall or he has to get put on waivers when he gets sent down.Petan was a 2nd round pick. One doesn’t pay original price for an asset that is likely to be on waivers at the end of September.

    And in trading for him, it means you are guaranteeing him a roster spot because he becomes waiver eligible this year.

    One doesn’t trade 2nd round draft picks for waiver eligible tweeners.One claims them on waivers.

    Thing is Petan is far from a failed prospect. He’s essentially NHL ready and looks like a decent bet to play a top-9 role, especially if his line-mates offer the physicality that Petan lacks.

    Maybe a 3rd rounder is more appropriate value but I see this player as a better bet than Pontus Aberg, with five (5!) years of post-draft development under his belt.

    Besides, I can’t imagine this player doesn’t get claimed first by Buffalo, Arizona, etc. The Oilers winger depth is so piss poor, a 2nd or 3rd rounder for a guy better than Caggiula is a deal worth making IMO.

  123. stevezie says:

    Do you remember when that one guy was loudly proclaiming the Lucic contract was so bad we wouldn’t be able to get a 7th rounder back if we were trading him, and some people around here were ready to stab him for such vile, heretical trolling?

    Man, I remember…

  124. stevezie says:

    knighttown: Put it this way…would you trade a second rounder to “the NHL” if it meant we could spend an extra 6 million over the Cap for the next 5 years? I’d do it in a flash and would pay considerably more.

    This is some nice framing and I think you make a good point, but this only works if you think Lucic has absolutely no on ice value.

    Are we there yet? Overpaid and horrifically over-termed, sure, but if you can’t convince an NHL GM to believe in Milan Lucic you’re not much of a negotiator.

    In other words, I think you’re right but don’t think it will quite come to that.

  125. stevezie says:

    godot10: One doesn’t trade 2nd round draft picks for waiver eligible tweeners. One claims them on waivers.

    This is great.

    Trading a real pick for Petan would be Reinhart all over again. It’s not that he’s officially a bust, it’s that you don’t pay full price for a gently used lottery ticket. The bloom is off the rose, the results are in and they don’t look good, the petshop has had this dog returned twice (once with what looks like blood on the collar…)

    The whole point of buy dinged up cans of soup is the discount. Get a discount!!!

  126. stevezie says:

    John Chambers,

    When the Oilers moved established NHLer Andrew Cogliano (24) they got a 2nd. Petan is a year younger, sure, but 23 ain’t young, he was only a mid 2nd rounder in the first place, has had no NHL success and only one good AHL season (At 22/3).

    If your scouts love him maybe offer a 6th or some prospect you don’t like, but otherwise wait for waivers.

  127. stevezie says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t hate Sek’s contract and have confidence the player will bounce back, but I’m not sure this team can afford to play their 3rd best lhD 5.5. Cap efficiency matters.

    You don’t have to trade him, but it would probably be nice if value is coming back.

  128. stevezie says:

    Marc,

    This is great and I like it.

  129. Side says:

    stevezie:
    Do you remember when that one guy was loudly proclaiming the Lucic contract was so bad we wouldn’t be able to get a 7th rounder back if we were trading him, and some people around here were ready to stab him for such vile, heretical trolling?

    Man, I remember…

    I seem to recall there were other teams willing to sign Lucic for more than the Oilers. I think it’s fair to say if after signing Lucic, if the Oilers were to flip him to one of those other teams for a 7th rounder, they would gladly do it.

    Cassandra was saying Lucic wasn’t worth a 7th rounder at the time of signing, which is totally trolling.

    Especially the rumors around Lucic’s issues seem to be stemming from personal issues, and not physical abilities.

    Either Cassandra is truly a prophet and he knew Lucic would fall off a cliff last year and didn’t want to tell anyone it would happen this year, or people are willing to fill in the blanks for him.

    I’ll try being a prophet here.. McDavid isn’t worth a 7th round pick.

    I trust that 40 years from now when McDavid is 60 years old, you will all remember that my prophecy came true.

  130. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar
    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/the-interview-milan-lucic-on-oilers-mcdavid-gretzky/

    To all you married guy out there… raise your hand if you’d rather go go-karting with Connor McDavid and ‘the guys’ or stay at home with the wife and kids watching princess movies….

    Seems to me he’s lost his “swagger”… doesn’t necessarily mean he hates it hear…

  131. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Petan either makes the Winnipeg roster in the fall or he has to get put on waivers when he gets sent down.Petan was a 2nd round pick. One doesn’t pay original price for an asset that is likely to be on waivers at the end of September.

    And in trading for him, it means you are guaranteeing him a roster spot because he becomes waiver eligible this year.

    One doesn’t trade 2nd round draft picks for waiver eligible tweeners.One claims them on waivers.

    godot10: Petan either makes the Winnipeg roster in the fall or he has to get put on waivers when he gets sent down.Petan was a 2nd round pick. One doesn’t pay original price for an asset that is likely to be on waivers at the end of September.

    And in trading for him, it means you are guaranteeing him a roster spot because he becomes waiver eligible this year.

    One doesn’t trade 2nd round draft picks for waiver eligible tweeners.One claims them on waivers.

    You’re right. Pick 40 is too much for Petan, but there’s absolutely no way the Jets let him walk. They will either keep him on the roster somehow or trade him. They simply won’t expose him to waivers. Talk about awful asset mngt. He’s definitely worth a late second pick. If we had the 50th or 60th I’d be a lot more eager. If we can get him for the 70th pick I’m all over that.

  132. Marc says:

    For what it’s worth, I think the Oilers should ask the following questions about the contracts they’re offered in return for Lucic:
    1. Do they fill a need the OIlers were planning to fill this offseason anyway ie. scoirng wing, RD, PP, PK?
    2. Can they be bought out without an excessive cap hit?
    3. Can they be exposed in an explansion draft?

    If the answer to any of these questions is ‘no’, then look elsewhere because the cost of having them is too high.

    Initial thoughts on some of the possible options:
    Ryan – Yes, No (signing bonuses), No
    Gaborik – No (man he looks done), Yes, Yes
    Phaneuf – No, No (signing bonuses), No – Triple crown!
    Eriksson – Yes, No (signing bonuses), Yes
    Seabrook – Yes, No (signing bonuses), No – man what a bad contract
    Perry – Yes, No (signing bonuses), No
    Dubinsky – Maybe (coming off his first really bad season), Yes, Yes – Hmmmmm

    I would also add that any LTIR player ie. Bolland, Hossa is out because for the Oilers to take advantage of LTIR they need to spend to the cap, which means they can’t leave a cushion for ELC bonuses. That would mean bonus overage penalties if either of Puljujarvi of Yamamoto take off offensively (which definitely can’t be ruled whilst Rattie is 1RW!)

  133. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: They are most certainly focused on making things better and having a stronger season. Whether all should have returned is an excellent question but the die is cast.

    I think the above name individuals will be having a long talk with some others, not named, whose opinion they valued highly!

  134. jm363561 says:

    JimmyV1965: How did the nine games affect his development? He dominated at his age level last year. Sure, he had a slow start, but that kinda stuff happens all the time. I see a player who progressed from the year before.

    It is hard to argue the nine game stretch actually harmed his development, although I doubt it helped much. My view is that the start of an NHL season is not the time or place for development and, in KY’s case, you are exposing a physically challenged young player to risk of injury.

    From the team’s perspective KY’s presence allowed Blender Todd to spend even longer trying to find settled line combinations. This, and his lack of production, contributed to the Oilers slow start. Gaudreau played one NHL game in his three post-draft years. We should not see KY again until he has “blown the bloody doors off” the AHL.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    stevezie:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t hate Sek’s contract and have confidence the player will bounce back, but I’m not sure this team can afford to play their 3rd best lhD 5.5. Cap efficiency matters.

    You don’t have to trade him, but it would probably be nice if value is coming back.

    Absolutely, he’s tradeable for value coming back, however, right now, due to the injury, value isn’t coming back and, in fact, some are in favor of buying him out.

    There is zero chance I am in favor of buying him out now even with the need for cap space. If he shows no (or limited) improvement, then he can be bought out at this time next year.

    He very well could be damn close to the d-man that was arguably our best d-men one year ago. Buying him out would be like buying out Klefbom.

    Also, why would Sekera be bought out when an inferior d-man, Kris Russell, could be bought out (and Russell’s trade protection is worse, his NMC will be in force for the expansion draft, Sekera’s would not).

  136. pts2pndr says:

    Oil Fan 99: LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). 

    I agree and they would not have to hurry him and there is mentorship from fellow countrymen as well! This seems to me to be the perfect scenario to bring a young offensively gifted player into.

  137. Woogie63 says:

    We are in need of NHL wingers, I can’t see trading Milan?

    Honestly

    RNH – 60 game 50 point NHLer
    Rattie – Good AHLer… we will see
    JP – still growing
    JJ – See JP
    Aberg … see Rattie
    Kassian … big regression
    Caggiula…. see Rattie
    Lucic … see Kassian

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    We are in need of NHL wingers, I can’t see trading Milan?

    Honestly

    RNH – 60 game 50 point NHLer
    Rattie – Good AHLer… we will see
    JP – still growing
    JJ – See JP
    Aberg … see Rattie
    Kassian … big regression
    Caggiula…. see Rattie
    Lucic … see Kassian

    The point of trading him is to open up cap space in order to acquire a replacement LW (or another good piece). If we retain, say, $1.5M, we open up $4.5M in cap space – we could probably pay both Maroon and Namestnikov, for example, with that cap space or Namestnikov and Pulock, for example.

  139. npanciroli says:

    Where can I find NHLE for the top 30 of the draft? Usually LT has it but not seeing it anywhere.

    Curious about Ty Smith and the other D specifically.

  140. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: They are most certainly focused on making things better and having a stronger season. Whether all should have returned is an excellent question but the die is cast.

    Yes they should have! is an excellent answer. 😉

    Even if the die was loaded.

  141. texmex says:

    OEL off the market according to Friedman. Not sure he was ever on it

    A few teams are indicating tonight that upon inquiring about Oliver Ekman-Larsson, they are being told he is off the market. No comment from ARIZ or agent, but it appears as if some kind of verbal agreement is in place. He cannot officially sign until July 1.

  142. VOR says:

    ArmchairGM: *blush*

    Haha, I’d forgotten about that conversation. Although I haven’t had a chance to study the theory and methodology behind the numbers, they simply don’t ring true. The numbers indicate that #1 is worth #10 + #20, which is obviously bunk.

    Actually the Schuckers table says it would be more like #1 for #s 10, 16, + 20.

    With that as context let’s try a thought experiment.

    1. The Oilers won this year’s draft lottery.
    2. We were approached by a team offering to trade us 11, 24, 33, 44, 62, and 138.
    3. Do we do it?

    Why? Why not?

    I mean Edmonton needs to improve its prospect pool and has a generational talent and is strong at LD. But Dahlen is something special. But Schuckers table says the Oilers win by a hair. Namita’s perfect draft strategy says the Oilers win that deal With even average efficiency throughout their draft this year. Blue Bullet Report’s impact adjusted table says the Oilers win that deal by quite a way.

    Now imagine it is 2005. You just traded away Sidney Crosby.

    All you got back was Anze Kopitar, T.J. Oshie, James Neal, Paul Statsny, Kris Letang, and a box of hockey pucks.

    Now imagine it is 2004. You gave up Alex Ovechkin and got back next to nothing.

    Do this for decades of drafts and the players on each side of the ledger will have played roughly the same number of games, scored roughly the same number of goals, points, etc.

    Back to the proposed trade. Knowing it is likely a fair value trade in an average world do you make the trade?

    It comes down to whether or not you need a generational player to take you to a Cup or the supporting cast to help a generational player win a Cup or two or three. Therefore, the Oilers probably do it.

    This is just one way tables can be used to support decision making.

    Here is another.

    https://originalsixanalytics.com/tag/draft-pick-value/

    What I am saying is the tables only answer some of the questions. The depth of the draft, the tiers in the draft, the players injury history, the combine results, and tools like Blue Bullets algorithm, Button and LT’s rankings, and Jaxon’s analysis all help inform the decision.

    I see the following argument advanced against using draft tables and value algorithms quite often, “tool X is flawed and should be ignored because…”. The criticism is nearly always valid. However the conclusion isn’t. Flawed tools can help skilled minds make better decisions.

    As an example, x-Rays which are flawed in many ways (inconclusive in many cases, negative in most cases, the occasional false positive, expose the patient to radiation, etc.) changed medicine and continue long after the death of Marie Curie to save lives.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    npanciroli:
    Where can I find NHLE for the top 30 of the draft? Usually LT has it but not seeing it anywhere.

    Curious about Ty Smith and the other D specifically.

    These are from May 2017 via Vollman (I think they’ve been updated but I’m sure very minor tweaks):

    Updated translation factors
    .74 KHL
    .58 SHL
    .47 AHL
    .43 SM-Liiga, Swiss NLA, NCHC
    .38 H-East
    .33 Big 10
    .30 OHL
    .29 WHL
    .25 QMJHL
    .23 ECAC

  144. VOR says:

    Brantford Boy: To all you married guy out there… raise your hand if you’d rather go go-karting with Connor McDavid and ‘the guys’ or stay at home with the wife and kids watching princess movies….

    Seems to me he’s lost his “swagger”… doesn’t necessarily mean he hates it hear…

    Great question.

    My answer is I loved the Princess movies, ballet classes, play dress up, and horse craziness years. I never once thought about Go Karting in those years.

    Now if it was Go Karting versus raging hormones, boy bands, goth, boy crazy years I’m taking Go Karting and I don’t care who it is with.

    I actually used to take my daughters Go Karting for exactly these reasons.

    For my sins my daughters fell in love with motor sports and Drift and Kart Race. I get to watch them risk their lives five or six times a year.

  145. npanciroli says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks!

  146. Rondo says:

    I wonder if KRAVTSOV is a possibility for the Oilers at #10.

  147. JimmyV1965 says:

    jm363561: It is hard to argue the nine game stretch actuallyharmed his development, although I doubt it helped much. My view is that the start of an NHL season is not the time or place for development and, in KY’s case, you are exposing a physically challenged young player to risk of injury.

    From the team’s perspective KY’s presence allowed Blender Todd to spend even longer trying to find settled line combinations. This, and his lack of production, contributed to the Oilers slow start. Gaudreau played one NHL game in his three post-draft years. We should not see KY again until he has “blown the bloody doors off” the AHL.

    I agree with all of this. I don’t think the nine games did the team any good. But if anyone ever earned the nine-game tryout it was Yammer. He was exceptional in the preseason. Should he have been sent down anyway? I’m on board with that for sure.

  148. JimmyV1965 says:

    It’s interesting in that the year Drai was sent to the minors he absolutely killed it in preseason. I went to a game and he was the best player in the ice, even better than McDavid that game. But they sent him to the AHL anyway and when he got called back up, he had an impact immediately.

  149. digger50 says:

    JimmyV1965: I believe your original point was JP having a negative reaction to being sent down, while Yammer stayed up with the big club. And my retort was how is that possible because Yammer outplayed him bigtime. Am I missing something here? This site and every site I visit was absolutely bonkers about Yammer in the preseason. I believe he led the league in goals scored.

    Should he have been sent down regardless? Sure. I have no problem with it. But he definitely earned his stay. And he played well early in his nine game stint.

    JP was sent down to work on his game. Why is that punishment? He finished the previous season in the AHL. I would think that being sent down to start the next season would be an extension of that development.

    This is not even hindsight.

    Todd can reward Yammer for his play, sure.

    But in the meantime he has 82 games to get ready for, and he’s not ready in any way. He could not find anything except Connor/ Leon. This was a huge factor to this poor season.

    A reasonable coach who understands youth and motivation would throw thier support in behind Jessie and get him launched. Long term gain over short term look at Yammer.

    To be sent down to the AHL to “work on your game” is like a big f*ck you to players. They do it, but they hate every second. It can instantly build a rift. It’s coaching style and I will bet dollars Jessie is not fo d of Todd.

    Does it matter?

    If players don’t want to play for a coach you have zero chance in the post season.

  150. leadfarmer says:

    Brantford Boy: To all you married guy out there… raise your hand if you’d rather go go-karting with Connor McDavid and ‘the guys’ or stay at home with the wife and kids watching princess movies….

    Seems to me he’s lost his “swagger”… doesn’t necessarily mean he hates it hear…

    Oh yeah a guy is on the road 1/3 of the year decides to be a father when he is home instead of hanging out with a bunch of 20 year olds. What a terrible human being. Definitely suffering from Low T

  151. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jm363561,

    – your blow the doors off comment made me think – who is the last player that played for the oil that was like that? Have we ever had a guy who blows the doors off then gets the call up? I can’t think of one but there must be ?

  152. digger50 says:

    Rondo:
    I wonder if KRAVTSOV is a possibility for the Oilers at #10.

    I don’t think they would have any confidence in the Russian. But i believe you are right in that he moves up.

  153. digger50 says:

    leadfarmer: Oh yeah a guy is on the road 1/3 of the year decides to be a father when he is home instead of hanging out with a bunch of 20 year olds.What a terrible human being.Definitely suffering from Low T

    I second this. Just the way it is and you’ll know when you get there. Princess movie wins over go carts.

    I remember test driving mini vans one Saturday afternoon. I stomp the gas, nothing happens. The salesman says “yeah, it doesn’t have much for balls”

    My reply “a guy test driving minivans on a Saturday afternoon doesn’t exactly have a lot of balls either”

  154. digger50 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    It’s interesting in that the year Drai was sent to the minors he absolutely killed it in preseason. I went to a game and he was the best player in the ice, even better than McDavid that game. But they sent him to the AHL anyway and when he got called back up, he had an impact immediately.

    Do you remember how he played in the AHL? He played like crap. He was pissed to say the least. He knew he played batter than most of the team in preseason. The only reason we as fans could understand was sent down due to perhaps bonus issues. I do not remember if a proper reason was ever discovered.

    A coach that feels he has to piss his players off to motivate them needs motivated himself

  155. rickithebear says:

    Lead (bullet?)farmer:
    I have been 100% in agreement with your last 3 Kinetic break down posts.

    The 100% man to man? Not so much.

    When you look at the most successful pk units.
    The pressure the puck side with that side forward high.
    Who may move with it or switch having the next forward press high.
    The dmen hold in the compressed HD area in zonal coverage.
    If both forward tire or lose structure they collapse into a triangle or trapezoid.
    This aproach should be taken on PK and Even lost structure.

    When you watch many of the previous cup winners.
    But most visible by pit. They adopt a similar aproach at even.
    Causing a reduction in shot volume.
    Plus the definition of HD in the current data calculators.
    Are different than mine.
    Once again incorrect line in the sand.

    Just go to shot Quality of 2006.
    Look at the shot chart and the success curves for each shot.
    Same resu
    To as mine at the time. So I credit him.
    I have been saying for years it is clear as day.

    Look for the Bump on a hump.
    Do you see the dump in the humps bump?
    The area curves have always been thier.
    The area volumes under the curve are still thier.
    Remember the ratio roughly 5 HD to 1 ld.
    Can you find the line in the sand?

    You better now!

  156. Matticus says:

    Lowetide what do you and the likes of stauffer see in Ty Smith that others do not? why is he ranked so low on every other list?

  157. rickithebear says:

    Now 3 d matrix. Team, Comp, ZS
    You hold one axis variable constant ( one of eight groups.)
    A 2nd axis is run the 8 group length.
    You end up with 8 curves stacked on each other for the 3rd axis
    With a mean curve and +ve and -ve range volumes above and below the mean curves.
    Clear as day!
    For all data columns.

  158. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: These are from May 2017 via Vollman (I think they’ve been updated but I’m sure very minor tweaks):

    Updated translation factors
    .74 KHL
    .58 SHL
    .47 AHL
    .43 SM-Liiga, Swiss NLA, NCHC
    .38 H-East
    .33 Big 10
    .30 OHL
    .29 WHL
    .25 QMJHL
    .23 ECAC

    Yeah, they were updated a couple of months ago.

    .804 KHL
    .596 SHL
    .486 AHL
    .471 SLA
    .452 SM-Liiga
    .440 WCHA
    .439 NCHC
    .393 Hockey east
    .333 Big Ten
    .323 OHL
    .302 WHL
    .284 QMJHL
    .280 ECAC

  159. Brantford Boy says:

    leadfarmer,

    It was a loaded question leadfarmer, I’m happy to hear you and VOR answered… anyone suggesting that go-karting with ‘X’ is better than being with their family needs to give there head a shake, although I know of a few… in all honesty, I really like Lucic interviews, he tells it as he sees it, and in this case he says its difficult but better being at home, and I respect that…

  160. Yeti says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    jm363561,

    – your blow the doors off comment made me think – who is the last player that played for the oil that was like that?Have we ever had a guy who blows the doors off then gets the call up?I can’t think of one but there must be ?

    Thoresen did it at camp that year?

  161. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50: This is not even hindsight.

    Todd can reward Yammer for his play, sure.

    But in the meantime he has 82 games to get ready for, and he’s not ready in any way. He could not find anything except Connor/ Leon. This was a huge factor to this poor season.

    A reasonable coach who understands youth and motivation would throw thier support in behind Jessie and get him launched. Long term gain over short term look at Yammer.

    To be sent down to the AHL to “work on your game” is like a big f*ck you to players. They do it, but they hate every second. It can instantly build a rift. It’s coaching style and I will bet dollars Jessie is not fo d of Todd.

    Does it matter?

    If players don’t want to play for a coach you have zero chance in the post season.

    I think I might disagree with everything you have said here. For the love of God, I hope we don’t draft players who are offended at being sent to the minors at 19. As I said earlier, the year Drai emerged as a legit force in the NHL, he was sent to the minors to start the season. And he absolutely killed it in the preseason. Didn’t seem to affect his play. Do prospects either earn their ice time or are they gifted ice time? I highly doubt pro athletes are so sensitive they get offended at being sent to the minors, before they have even established themselves as big league players.

  162. Brantford Boy says:

    VOR,

    Great stuff VOR!… see my problem (admittedly) is when others post something I quickly glance at it and if it seems probable I go with it (ie: if some smart guy with graphs came along could probably talk me into believing 2+2=5)… in the case of the Schuckers table someone posted it months ago and it kinda made sense… without diving into it like you did the last couple of days I would have thought it was a good argument… sadly I was being biased and only looking for a way to trade with Philly at the time and not even looking at the #1 overall (1 million points in Connor’s case)… thanks for your, ArmchairGM, and DOUG MCLACHLAN efforts on this… its promising, but needs more work…

  163. rickithebear says:

    Ad a player matures from 16-19 they become more physically developed and game experienced than thier younger competition.
    When Desjardins visited the translation of chl production he came up with every defined curves.

    Draft -1 16yr 1.00 to .75 of chl production
    Sept 16 to sept 15 of next year.
    ((Birthdate in days/365) x.25) + .75 = age equivalency
    (League equivalency /.30) = league equivalency.
    (Age equiv) x (league equiv) x (league production/gm(either Total, Even, or Primary)) x 82gm
    Gives you expected age/league NHLE.
    I have done this since 07-08

    All is constant thru the years.
    The only variable factor of players is increase in age.
    Desjardins proved a marked reduction in NHL point translation by year.
    Draft -1 ((Birthdate in days/365) x.25) + .75 = age equivalency
    Draft ((Birthdate in days/365) x.25) + .50 = age equivalency
    Draft +1 ((Birthdate in days/365) x.10) + .40 = age equivalency
    Draft +2 ((Birthdate in days/365) x .05) + .35 =age equivalency
    Draft +3 ((Birthdate in days/365) x .03) + .32 = age equivalency
    Draft +4 ((Birthdate in days/365) x .02) + .30 = age equivalency

    LT says 5 years postbdraft.
    The point were Desjardins expect age/league equivalency is the same as just league equivalency.
    .30

    Data shows age translation is the critical variant year to year.
    That is why you compare prospect performance in like leagues by age.
    18yr, 19yr, ………
    By situational demand and expected avg and performance range as baseline.

    The nice thing is if a player is injured in draft year you go back and look at draft -1 for some reference.
    Monahan screamed elite draft-1.

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50: Do you remember how he played in the AHL? He played like crap. He was pissed to say the least. He knew he played batter than most of the team in preseason. The only reason we as fans could understand was sent down due to perhaps bonus issues. I do not remember if a proper reason was ever discovered.

    A coach that feels he has to piss his players off to motivate them needs motivated himself

    Yes, I do remember that. He had something like 4 pts in 10 games in the AHL and got the call up. Was he happy at being sent down? Of course not. Did he come up and play lights out? Sure did. I’m not sure I understand your point though. The players don’t have to like the coach and I’m sure many don’t. That’s the role of assistants.

    In none of my posts did I express support for McLellan, but I don’t know how you make the jump to the coach trying to piss off players. Even so, in some instances I’m sure it’s quite an effective strategy.

    What I’m saying is that a teenager who has struggled in the big leagues, and hasn’t established a career yet, should not be offended at being sent to the minors. That’s the deal. And if being sent down to the minors somehow impedes his development that’s on the player.

  165. digger50 says:

    JimmyV1965: Yes, I do remember that. He had something like 4 pts in 10 games in the AHL and got the call up. Was he happy at being sent down? Of course not. Did he come up and play lights out? Sure did. I’m not sure I understand your point though. The players don’t have to like the coach and I’m sure many don’t. That’s the role of assistants.

    In none of my posts did I express support for McLellan, but I don’t know how you make the jump to the coach trying to piss off players. Even so, in some instances I’m sure it’s quite an effective strategy.

    What I’m saying is that a teenager who has struggled in the big leagues, and hasn’t established a career yet, should not be offended at being sent to the minors. That’s the deal. And if being sent down to the minors somehow impedes his development that’s on the player.

    What Jessie could learn in ten AHL games was lost as he had to move, try to re-establish place to live, new team , new town, etc with little comprehension of English language. In my opinion, a short sighted, poorly thought out move by coach and organization.

    But I’m sure it taught him a lesson, only not the one the Org intended.

    I’m all done for this evening.

  166. Lowetide says:

    Matticus:
    Lowetide what do you and the likes stauffer see in Ty Smith that others do not why, is he ranked so low on every other list?

    I can’t speak for Bob, but can send you to The Athletic piece that explains why I think he’s a top pick.

    https://theathletic.com/342454/2018/05/04/lowetide-ty-smith-a-quality-fit-for-the-oilers-at-no-10-overall/

  167. rickithebear says:

    Eberle
    League equiv .30/.30 = 1
    Age
    Draft (.667 x .25)+ .50 = .667
    Draft +1 (.667 x .10) + .40 = .467
    Draft +2 (.667 x .05) + .35 = .383

    Draft 70gm 42g 33a 75p 42/75 = .56 Goals
    (75/70) x .667 x 82gm = 59 pt x .56 = 33g
    33g 59pt

    Draft+1 61gm 35g 74p 35/74 = .473 Goals
    (74/61) x .467 x 82gm = 47p x .473 = 22g
    22g 49pt

    Draft + 2 57gm 50g 106p 50/106 = .472
    (106/57) x .383 x 82gm = 59pt x .473 = 28g

    2 years of 59p and avg of 25g

    Yamamoto
    league .30/.30 = 1.00
    Draft = .510
    Draft + 1 = .404
    Draft+ 2 = .352

    Draft 65gm 42g 99p 42/99 = .424
    (99/65) x .510 x 82 = 27g 64p

    Draft +1 40 gm 21g 64p = .328g
    (64/40) x .404 x 82gm = 17g 53p

    Avg of 2 seasons 22g 59p
    (.75- .352)/(.75 – .30) = 88%
    18-19g 50-52p with full EV and PP push

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rondo:
    I wonder if KRAVTSOV is a possibility for the Oilers at #10.

    I hope not.

    I don’t think the organization is in the position to stretch like that – if they have a hard target on him, I would hope they trade down.

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I agree with all of this. I don’t think the nine games did the team any good. But if anyone ever earned the nine-game tryout it was Yammer.He was exceptional in the preseason. Should he have been sent down anyway? I’m on board with that for sure.

    I really don’t agree that he was exceptional in the pre-season. He was effective at the beginning and faded as it went on and the competition got stronger.

    I can’t argue that he wasn’t one of the top 4 right wingers, however, I think his play was far from exceptional.

    His position on the team out of camp was a function of the lack of depth as much as his earning it, in my opinion.

  170. rickithebear says:

    JimmyV1965: Yes, I do remember that. He had something like 4 pts in 10 games in the AHL and got the call up. Was he happy at being sent down? Of course not. Did he come up and play lights out? Sure did. I’m not sure I understand your point though. The players don’t have to like the coach and I’m sure many don’t. That’s the role of assistants.

    In none of my posts did I express support for McLellan, but I don’t know how you make the jump to the coach trying to piss off players. Even so, in some instances I’m sure it’s quite an effective strategy.

    What I’m saying is that a teenager who has struggled in the big leagues, and hasn’t established a career yet, should not be offended at being sent to the minors. That’s the deal. And if being sent down to the minors somehow impedes his development that’s on the player.

    From one high functioning autistic.
    JP is in need of autism measure.

    When talking rookie of the year I look at a players rank relative to place in modern era for that age.
    Laine 18yr rookie season was miles ahead of Mathews 19yr rookie season.

    JP 19 year evg season was superior to tkachuk 19 year season.

    Guess Tkachuk sucked evg wise in his rookie year.

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    To be sent down to the AHL to “work on your game” is like a big f*ck you to players. They do it, but they hate every second. It can instantly build a rift. It’s coaching style and I will bet dollars Jessie is not fo d of Todd.

    Sure, I would hope players hate getting sent to the minors to work on the game but they often need it. Its part of the development of most players – those that don’t need some time in the minor leagues are the exception. Jesse certainly needed it. He was sent down, not to work on accumulating points but on very specific skills – stops and starts, angles, gaps, etc. It sure did seem to help.

  172. Matticus says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank, it looks like i’ll have to pony up some dough to read that one. Is the Athletic worth a subscription?

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Thanks.

  174. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I really don’t agree that he was exceptional in the pre-season. He was effective at the beginning and faded as it went on and the competition got stronger.

    I can’t argue that he wasn’t one of the top 4 right wingers, however, I think his play was far from exceptional.

    His position on the team out of camp was a function of the lack of depth as much as his earning it, in my opinion.

    I believe he led the league in goals scored. What more can you ask? That’s not enuf? And while he didn’t score in his last preseason game, he did score in his second last preseason game.

  175. Lowetide says:

    Matticus:
    Lowetide,

    Thank, it looks like i’ll have to pony up some dough to read that one. Is the Athletic worth a subscription?

    I think so, yes.

  176. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Yeah I’m not saying it’s the correct way. It’s what I’ve noticed being done more and more 5v5. To play that the forwards need to be very defensively responsible and team being fast so they can get back into position hence the swarm falling flat on its face. I would rather have a hybrid system with the wingers rotating with the center and when needed the center rotating with the defensemen. Most teams are not deep enough on 2 way wingers to not give up goals against in the swarm. But any way you take it most defensive systems are very hard to break down once established and having wingers preferentially higher is beneficial for quick counters (so you can get a scoring chance before the opponent can set up defensively)

    One thing I like is how new coaching hires are talking about chaos on the pp, but when you look at the Caps pk versus the lighting and versus the knights I can’t believe it was the same team. Against the lightning they employed what we watched the Oil do most of the season. Very passive. Like they are conserving energy. Against the knights they went all out. Pressure the puck carrier with the next guy pressuring his easiest passing target. They went mobile. They completely frustrated them.

  177. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: What Jessie could learn in ten AHL games was lost as he had to move, try to re-establish place to live, new team , new town, etc with little comprehension of English language. In my opinion, a short sighted, poorly thought out move by coach and organization.

    But I’m sure it taught him a lesson, only not the one the Org intended.

    I’m all done for this evening.

    Not a new team nor a new town – the same team and town he played half the previous year on.

    The teenager has facets of his game the organization wanted him to work on, they wanted to keep him developing so he was re-assigned to the developmental league and, from watching and from all accounts, he was a much better player for it.

    With respect, I really think this series of posts on why Puljijarvi has been hampered by going to the AHL is a huge stretch,

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    Matticus:
    Lowetide,

    Thank, it looks like i’ll have to pony up some dough to read that one. Is the Athletic worth a subscription?

    100%

  179. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Matticus,

    Second paragraph of today’s post gives a free 7 day offer. Check it out for yourself but the short answer is the quality is heads and shoulders above anything else.

    Make sure to also check out Dellows, Pronman (for prospects), Willis, and other articles that LT has linked to in past posts. Depending what you like there is fantastic content for many angles.

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I believe he led the league in goals scored. What more can you ask? That’s not enuf? And while he didn’t score in his last preseason game, he did score in his second last preseason game.

    With a 60% shooting percentage. Full credit for scoring those goals but I don’t think they were representative of his play.

  181. who says:

    Side: I seem to recall there were other teams willing to sign Lucic for more than the Oilers. I think it’s fair to say if after signing Lucic, if the Oilers were to flip him to one of those other teams for a 7th rounder, they would gladly do it.

    Cassandra was saying Lucic wasn’t worth a 7th rounder at the time of signing, which is totally trolling.

    Especially the rumors around Lucic’s issues seem to be stemming from personal issues, and not physical abilities.

    Either Cassandra is truly a prophet and he knew Lucic would fall off a cliff last year and didn’t want to tell anyone it would happen this year, or people are willing to fill in the blanks for him.

    I’ll try being a prophet here.. McDavid isn’t worth a 7th round pick.

    I trust that 40 years from now when McDavid is 60 years old, you will all remember that my prophecy came true.

    I don’t agree with a lot of the stuff that Cassandra posts on here but I agreed with him on the Lucic contract. Does that make me a prophet too?
    Unless you retain salary or accept another bad contract in trade he will not get you a 7th rounder. I can’t believe posters on here are actually thinking the Oilers can get an asset for him. If you could give him away for free you do it immediately. In the 2 years he’s been here he has rarely looked like anything more than a fourth line enforcer. No hands and no legs. Bad combo in todays game.

  182. VOR says:

    rickithebear: From one high functioning autistic.
    JP is in need of autism measure.

    When talking rookie of the year I look at a players rank relative to place in modern era for that age.
    Laine 18yr rookie season was miles ahead of Mathews 19yr rookie season.

    JP 19 year evg season was superior to tkachuk 19 year season.

    Guess Tkachuk sucked evg wise in his rookie year.

    As another person on the spectrum I think we should avoid diagnosing from a distance. In fact, unless we have clinical training and certification I think we should avoid diagnosing anyone at any distance.

    I am sure you have had the experience of near total strangers diagnosing you, telling you what is wrong with you. I don’t know how you felt about the experience but I can tell you how I felt. It fucking annoyed the hell out of me.

    Now imagine how it feels to have someone who hasn’t even met you diagnose you on line.

    Your post is suggesting he is on the spectrum. You have no way of knowing. More to the point you are assuming he doesn’t have a professionally assigned label, or if you prefer a diagnosis. For all you know he is “in care”.

    Much as I have come to find people diagnosing me or asking my diagnosis a few minutes into our acquaintance funny it is still obnoxious social behaviour. I always want to retaliate with, “why did my parents, my teachers, my school psychologist, my girl friends, my wife, me, and my kids never think of the idea of me getting professional help. Not to mention I am sure you know so much more than the 7 psychiatrists, 5 neurologists, 4 psychologists, and 3 occupational therapists I have seen. Each of who gave me a different label. Every morning I get up and draw my day’s diagnosis from a hat.” I have been assured that is socially inappropriate and that two wrongs don’t make a right so I just laugh instead.

    So let’s leave Jesse free of our projections.

  183. VOR says:

    I thought given the conversation and speculation about Lucic some of you might find this interesting

    http://www.biomedsearch.com/article/Personality-traits-stereotypes-associated-with/289360113.html

  184. Lowetide says:

    VOR: In a tome of great writing, that’s the finest thing you’ve blessed us with and I thank you.

  185. stevezie says:

    Side: I seem to recall there were other teams willing to sign Lucic for more than the Oilers. I think it’s fair to say if after signing Lucic, if the Oilers were to flip him to one of those other teams for a 7th rounder, they would gladly do it.

    Cassandra was saying Lucic wasn’t worth a 7th rounder at the time of signing, which is totally trolling.

    Especially the rumors around Lucic’s issues seem to be stemming from personal issues, and not physical abilities.

    Either Cassandra is truly a prophet and he knew Lucic would fall off a cliff last year and didn’t want to tell anyone it would happen this year, or people are willing to fill in the blanks for him.

    I’ll try being a prophet here.. McDavid isn’t worth a 7th round pick.

    I trust that 40 years from now when McDavid is 60 years old, you will all remember that my prophecy came true.

    Respectfully, that’s not how I remember it. No one ever said Lucic was so bad he wasn’t worth a 7th. It was always that Lucic signed to that contract was a problem.

    There was only one team rumoured to be offering him more money, by the way- Les Habs.

    Sounds like we’re about to find out if anyone would gladly take the contract. If they do I’ll be happy, and see it more as a reflection on them than the contract.

  186. stevezie says:

    Marc,

    Great post

  187. Side says:

    stevezie: Respectfully, that’s not how I remember it. No one ever said Lucic was so bad he wasn’t worth a 7th. It was always that Lucic signed to that contract was a problem.

    There was only one team rumoured to be offering him more money, by the way- Les Habs.

    Sounds like we’re about to find out if anyone would gladly take the contract. If they do I’ll be happy, and see it more as a reflection on them than the contract.

    From the horses mouth.

    “CARAMEL BATMAN says:
    August 22, 2016 at 1:02 pm
    The only way to justify the trade is by adding Lucic to the ledger. Lucic replaces Hall, and you get Larsson as the bonus. Except over the course of the contract Lucic actually has negative value.

    So unless you are all-in on the next two years, the Lucic signing actually makes the deal worse.

    Put it this way. If Lucic didn’t have a NMC, would you be able to trade him for a seventh round pick tomorrow? The answer to that is an emphatic no.”

    Also keep in mind, CB also believes that no one has positive value. Everyone is depreciating and no player or contract ever appreciates.

    So even if we stick with just Montreal as the team in on Lucic, they (by rumours) offered more. So they wouldn’t offer at least a 7th round pick for him on a nicer contract? I believe they would.

  188. Side says:

    who: I don’t agree with a lot of the stuff that Cassandra posts on here but I agreed with him on the Lucic contract. Does that make me a prophet too?
    Unless you retain salary or accept another bad contract in trade he will not get you a 7th rounder. I can’t believe posters on here are actually thinking the Oilers can get an asset for him. If you could give him away for free you do it immediately. In the 2 years he’s been here he has rarely looked like anything more than a fourth line enforcer. No hands and no legs. Bad combo in todays game.

    At the time of signing, I believe teams would give at least a 7th rounder for him.

  189. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: With a 60% shooting percentage.Full credit for scoring those goals but I don’t think they were representative of his play.

    Not in one of my posts today did I say we should have kept Yammer up for nine games. What I have repeatedly said is that he earned the nine games. So he shot 60%. We all know that’s unsustainable. But he also played damn good. And that was certainly the narrative around here at the time. Some people argued that he should have been sent to junior right away, but I find it highly unlikely that anyone said he didn’t play well enough to earn the nine games.

  190. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Yeah, they were updated a couple of months ago.

    .804 KHL
    .596 SHL
    .486 AHL
    .471 SLA
    .452 SM-Liiga
    .440 WCHA
    .439 NCHC
    .393 Hockey east
    .333 Big Ten
    .323 OHL
    .302 WHL
    .284 QMJHL
    .280 ECAC

    also Jeremy Davis at Canucks Army has done some interesting things regarding NHLEs, where he has established different factors for forwards and D as (I think) forwards retained their production more than D (or was it surprisingly the other way around?). He also established some NHLEs for other leagues. I’m not exactly sure where I got these (it may be from Davis, which is very amateur hour on my part to not note my sources), so use them at your own risk.
    ALLSVENSKAN 0.46
    MHL 0.31
    CZECH 0.284
    USHL 0.27
    Jr. Liiga 0.26
    SUPERELIT 0.25
    BCHL 0.23
    MESTIS 0.23
    USHS 0.23

    LINKS and SOURCES:
    Vollman and Gabriel Desjardins are the original two big names on NHLe

    Rhys Jessop has done some great work on Age Adjustment
    http://thats-offside.blogspot.com/2014/06/adjusting-scoring-rate-for-age-in-chl.html
    Jessop using CHL ERA Adjustments:
    https://canucksarmy.com/2014/06/10/who-should-vancouver-draft-spoilers-it-s-sam-reinhart/
    Jessop on D Scoring:
    http://thats-offside.blogspot.com/2013/06/slicing-and-dicing-re-examining-data-on.html

    Garret Hohl’s SEAL Adjusted Scoring
    https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/06/15/seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects/
    and on Scoring talent influence on goal differential
    https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/09/09/scoring-talent-influence-on-goal-differentials-and-statistical-double-dipping/

    Here is a link to Davis’ SEAL Adjusted Scoring.
    https://canucksarmy.com/2017/06/23/the-big-seal-reveal-adjusted-scoring-for-first-time-eligible-prospects/
    Ian Tulloch (Leafs Nation) speaks about the Wilson method re: NHLe as well:
    https://mapleleafsnation.com/2017/06/01/re-approaching-the-methodology-of-nhle/
    And the Wilson Method of finding NHLEs for other leagues:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0nCb1z6vquyekNQeWVEck9udkU/view
    Prospect Cohort Success:
    https://jetsnation.ca/2015/05/26/draft-analytics-unveiling-the-prospect-cohort-success-model/

    I’ve fiddled around with my own Projected 5-on-5 Primary Points stat, which uses the NHLEs above, adjusts for CHL scoring eras, adjusts to the median 17.5 years old for age (1-(E3-17.5)*0.1672), and finally adjusts for TOI to median top 6 forward TOI (14.4167) or median top 4 D TOI (17.25), and then adjusts (inflates) those numbers to meet the average player who has jumped directly into the NHL (1.525 for forwards, and 2.25 for D):

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7hTmAK0yHaBUJdGTSPg8k1kjCLfD1k6ISMjledHoWc/edit?usp=sharing

    It’s not pretty, but it works.

  191. Lowetide says:

    Great stuff, Jaxon. Everyone: Please don’t quote Jaxon’s post, you’ll get caught up in the filter. Maybe grab specific pieces to quote, that probably works. I really like your riffing at the end.

  192. Jaxon says:

    I’ve also stumbled upon what I feel is a pretty good indicator (or eliminator) of success vs failure in draft picks. There seems to be a threshold where, even if you’re producing primary points at an elite rate, if you’re playing fewer minutes at 5-on5 (as established by CHL and USHL TOI estimating proxies), then it is a red flag for prospects. I has initially thought that it was a 13.74, then 13.49, and now maybe a 13.24 TOI threshold. Most of the draft busts or NHLers who have struggled or been inconsistent have fallen below this threshold even though their primary points production was elite.

    Of players who have scored a Projected NHL 5-on-5 Primary Points of 22.55 or more:

    Players brought back into the success model by going from 13.74 to 13.49:
    Justin Shugg – bust
    Steve Downie – solid NHLer
    Brett Connolly – just won the Cup
    Matt Duchene – borderline elite if inconsistent
    Nino Niederreiter – solid if inconsistent
    Robert Thomas – still too young to know but had a great junior season
    Benoit Pouliot – solid NHLer if inconsistent

    I’d draft most of those guys again, so maybe that threshold was too high

    Players brought back into the success model by going from 13.49 to 13.24:
    2018 Joel Farabee – right at 13.24
    2005 Devin Setoguchi – boom, then bust. Well known that there were other factors that led to his inconsistency so in a perfect world he would have continued as a success.
    2014 Jayce Hawryluk – bust
    2017 Josh Norris – 2017 draftee, too early to tell
    2015 Nikita Korostelev – 10 AHL GP, going back to KHL, could be a bust
    2017 Macauley Carson – 2017 draftee, too early to tell
    2010 Ryan Johansen – successful NHLer since his draft+4 season

    That was about 50/50. Two successes (all things considered), two probable busts, two too early to tell and Farabee. I think that’s inconclusive. Threshold still too high.

    Below 13.24 TOI
    2008 Eric O’Dell – bust
    2007 Sam Gagner – NHLer, inconsistent, has bounced around a bit, struggle to stay in top 6 (12.79 ETOI)
    2006 Bobby Hughes – bust
    2006 Riley Holzapfel – bust
    2013 Oliver Bjorkstrand – finally cracked the NHL this season and put up 40 pts in draft +5. 12.57 ETOI
    2006 John Hughes – bust
    2015 Zachary Senyshyn – a bit too early to tell but it’s not looking too positive 26 pts in AHL
    2014 Andrew Mangiapane – a bit too early to tell but it’s not looking too positive 46 pts in AHL and only 10 . NHL games thus far
    2007 Stefan Legein – bust
    2017 Jacob Tortora – 2017 draftee, too early to tell
    2007 Dale Mitchell – bust
    2008 Greg Nemisz – bust
    2015 Blake Speers – a bit too early to tell but it’s not looking too positive 19 pts in AHL
    2006 Codey Burki – bust
    2017 Ivan Lodnia – 2017 draftee, too early to tell
    2005 Daniel Ryder – bust
    2010 Austin Watson – bust
    2013 Max Domi – 3 years in a row of solid production in the NHL. 13.15 ETOI
    2005 Radek Smolenak – bust
    2008 Cody Hodgson – struggled as an NHLer, had 3 decent seasons above 30 pts, retired. Bust-ish.
    2005 Francis Charette – bust
    2006 Michael Grabner – super fast, inconsistent yet prolific scorer 12.61 ETOI
    2016 Logan DeNoble – too early to tell
    2012 Andreas Athanasiou – super fast, 76 pts in 172 NHL GP. struggling to remain in top 6 role and may be on the outs in DET 11.41 ETOI
    2006 Peter Mueller – showed flashes of brilliance, but struggled with concussions 13.23 ETOI
    2010 Devante Smith-Pelly – Stanley Cup hero!
    2006 Jordan Staal – strange name on this list, NHL success. He had an ETOI of only 8.33! Something odd here.
    2007 Brett MacLean – bust
    2008 Kruise Reddick – bust
    2010 Brendan Gallagher – success story. great player. 13.15 TOI
    2010 Mark Stone – another success story. Took him a few years and a lot of work on his skating.
    2006 Justin Bernhardt – bust
    2013 Vincent Dunn – bust
    2006 Jamie McGinn – bust
    2006 Ryan McDonough – bust (this is not the NYR/TBL D)
    2005 Kenndal McArdle – bust
    2006 Bryan Little – woah… success (10.93 ETOI!?!?)
    2010 Jared Knight – bust
    2012 Radek Faksa – solid NHLer (made it in his draft+5 season) not a bust. 33 points 2 years in a row (12.84 eTOI)
    2009 Nazem Kadri – success (12.79 ETOI)
    2007 Michal Repik – bust
    2007 Angelo Esposito – bust
    2011 Brent Benson – bust
    2010 Brandon Hynes – bust
    2012 Nathan Pancel – bust
    2011 Ryan Tesink – bust
    2005 Mike Duco – bust
    2008 Robby Mignardi – bust

    48 players. 14 have had some success at the NHL (6 of those have had struggles sticking with teams and struggles with consistency, 1 of them has been a fringe NHLer this season but was a Cup hero last week), 6 are too early to tell, 2 didn’t crack the NHL until their draft+5 season, so were close to busting, 28 full-on busts. Predictive of busts? Maybe not. but it would raise some red flags for me and I’d want my scouts to dig a little deeper.

  193. VOR says:

    JimmyV1965: Not in one of my posts today did I say we should have kept Yammer up for nine games. What I have repeatedly said is that he earned the nine games. So he shot 60%. We all know that’s unsustainable. But he also played damn good. And that was certainly the narrative around here at the time. Some people argued that he should have been sent to junior right away, but I find it highly unlikely that anyone said he didn’t play well enough to earn the nine games.

    As somebody who was very vocal in my position that Kailer should go straight back to junior I seem to recall that I had doubts. While I didn’t directly say Kailer hadn’t earned the opportunity I did say our idea he was playing well enough to earn a look was a function of time on ice and PDO. If you reduced Kailer’s shooting percentage from 60 to 21% (Jesse’s shooting percentage) and calculated points per 60 Jesse was having the better pre-season with a lot poorer linemates. Given we all agreed, or so it seemed at the time, that Jesse needed more AHL time then logically Kailer certainly needed to go back to Junior.

    At least I think that is what I argued at the time.

  194. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide:
    Great stuff, Jaxon. Everyone: Please don’t quote Jaxon’s post, you’ll get caught up in the filter. Maybe grab specific pieces to quote, that probably works. I really like your riffing at the end.

    Thanks! Sorry for clogging things up with all the links.

  195. JimmyV1965 says:

    VOR: As somebody who was very vocal in my position that Kailer should go straight back to junior I seem to recall that I had doubts. While I didn’t directly say Kailer hadn’t earned the opportunity I did say our idea he was playing well enough to earn a look was a function of time on ice and PDO. If you reduced Kailer’s shooting percentage from 60 to 21% (Jesse’s shooting percentage) and calculated points per 60 Jesse was having the better pre-season with a lot poorer linemates. Given we all agreed, or so it seemed at the time, that Jesse needed more AHL time then logically Kailer certainly needed to go back to Junior.

    At least I think that is what I argued at the time.

    I don’t recall anyone at the time arguing that he didn’t earn the nine games. Maybe I’m wrong. I also believe I argued he should be sent down, given that it was the preseason. And when they kept him around I think my position was something like “what the hell, what can it hurt.” But maybe it did hurt the team. Although I think it was goaltending that killed us early. And if he knocks it out the ballpark this fall, I still want him in the AHL to start.

  196. stevezie says:

    Side: From the horses mouth.

    “CARAMEL BATMAN says:
    August 22, 2016 at 1:02 pm
    The only way to justify the trade is by adding Lucic to the ledger. Lucic replaces Hall, and you get Larsson as the bonus. Except over the course of the contract Lucic actually has negative value.

    So unless you are all-in on the next two years, the Lucic signing actually makes the deal worse.

    Put it this way. If Lucic didn’t have a NMC, would you be able to trade him for a seventh round pick tomorrow? The answer to that is an emphatic no.”

    Also keep in mind, CB also believes that no one has positive value. Everyone is depreciating and no player or contract ever appreciates.

    So even if we stick with just Montreal as the team in on Lucic, they (by rumours) offered more. So they wouldn’t offer at least a 7th round pick for him on a nicer contract? I believe they would.

    It is obvious to me that he means Lucic at 7 years and 6 million.

    I also remember the appreciation conversation, and think we might have walked away with different understandings of that one too 🙂

  197. GMB3 says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t recall anyone at the time arguing that he didn’t earn the nine games. Maybe I’m wrong. I also believe I argued he should be sent down, given that it was the preseason. And when they kept him around I think my position was something like “what the hell, what can it hurt.” But maybe it did hurt the team. Although I think it was goaltending that killed us early. And if he knocks it out the ballpark this fall, I still want him in the AHL to start.

    If Kailer getting 9 games hurt the team, then the team isn’t very good anyways. I don’t think KY was a negative during his 9 game trial, and if other players were upset that he got a 9 game trial by comingnoutnready to play in training camp, maybe they aren’t the right players to fill your roster. I’d look at moving those guys.

    I don’t think KY getting a 9 game trial had any negative impact on the season. This is the NHL. Every single one of these guys has been on teams where players had strong preseasons, started the year in a role, and the player may not have succeeded in that role.

    Not many players are so talented that they can make it in to the NHL, let alone last at that level, being that mentally weak.

  198. ArmchairGM says:

    Matticus:
    Lowetide what do you and the likes stauffer see in Ty Smith that others do not why, is he ranked so low on every other list?

    Western Canadian bias.

  199. ArmchairGM says:

    Matticus:
    Lowetide what do you and the likes of stauffer see in Ty Smith that others do not? why is he ranked so low on every other list?

    Seriously though, you have to remember that LT and Stauffer are not proffessional scouts, they are media guys. They are no doubt closer to the situation than most of us in that they have conversations with scouts on the subject all the time, but they haven’t actually scouted all these prospects themselves. So your question is a fair one: if all the pro scouts have a player in the (say) 12-20 range, why would LT have him outside that? We all can – and do – project players (I have been very vocal about Kotkaniemi, for instance), but at the end of the day it’s mostly just noise. LT and Bob have a platform with which to vocalize their thoughts widely which gives them more legitimacy, but they are not professional scouts and never pretended to be.

  200. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: I can’t speak for Bob, but can send you to The Athletic piece that explains why I think he’s a top pick.

    https://theathletic.com/342454/2018/05/04/lowetide-ty-smith-a-quality-fit-for-the-oilers-at-no-10-overall/

    In this article you are comparing Smith to other WHL players mainly, you don’t answer the question of why you rank him 5th in the whole draft – above players who are universally ranked higher.

    Edit: please understand that I am not asking you to justify your position on Ty Smith, you have published your draft list and I certainly appreciate it as a resource, even if I don’t agree with your rankings. For the record, I think Pronman’s are the wackiest out there, but then he isn’t exactly trying to come up with a draft prediction. He also scouts the players himself and writes extensively about them, so he’s another excellent resource even if his numbering is all over the place.

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