Draft Post No. 3: Midnight Rider

We all have our favorites and that’s a fact. I’ve always enjoyed watching undersized centers outsmart the big kids, from Dave Keon to Gregg Sheppard to Pavel Datsyuk. When it comes to the 2018 draft, my own opinion is there’s a wide swath of players who are of similar quality. The ‘different shades of gray’ ranking that is my final list lends itself to making emotional (or irrational) connections to players leading up to the draft. We all have our favourites, and here are mine for this year’s draft.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift for Father’s Day and get a free t-shirt! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • New Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Oilers free-agent prospect procurement isn’t aiming high enough
  • Black Dog: Getting old, in and out of hockey
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

2018 DRAFT, PERSONAL OPINION

  1. Favourite player in the draft at No. 10 overall? Ty Smith. Great arrows.
  2. Least favourite player in the draft? I don’t really dislike any of them, guess it would be Adam Ginning. I have him No. 114 and he’s going to go in the second round.
  3. Favourite player not on your list? Trey Fix-Wolansky, I have watched him turn into a pretty good player over these years. He was one dimensional, and he’ll never be Craig Ramsay, but man he’s worked on his game.
  4. Where is your list? Here.
  5. Who is the best player not on your list? Probably Nando Eggenberger. I know scouts like him a lot but math couldn’t find a strong story. He actually looked better a year ago.
  6. Who do you think the Oilers will take? Wide open. Could trade up, down or out. Ty Smith would be an excellent choice, but I’m not sure Edmonton will pick him at No. 10.
  7. Who do you think the Oilers will pass on? Adam Boqvist. He’s brilliant but there’s enough chaos in his game to make you wonder, plus there are concussion issues (wrote about it in my article for The Athletic today).
  8. Who is most likely to fall from that top tier? I’ll say Jesperi Kotkaniemi, because it’s unclear to me the teams ahead of Edmonton will pass on the talent available. Also, the Rangers may end up doing something Rangery, like taking Vitali Kravtsov.
  9. Name 10 players you hope Edmonton selects. Ty Smith, Rasmus Kupari, Sean Durzi, Liam Foudy, Adam Mascherin, Matej Pekar, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, David Gustafsson, Riley Stotts, Joey Keane.
  10. If there’s one thing that stands out after this long season, what is it? The gap between Andrei Svechnikov and the other forwards in the draft. In the OHL this season, among forwards who are under 18, he posted a 5-on-5 primary point per game of 1.00. Next up was Serron Noel, at .53. Amazing gap.
  11. Will they take a goalie? Hell if I know. I’m not good at projecting goalies, Stuart Skinner was No. 12 on my list and a re-draft would have him (I think) close to the top.
  12. What would be the Oilers ideal draft? Ty Smith, Sean Durzi, Adam Mascherin, Jack Randl, Justin Almeida, Hudson Elyniuk.
  13. A lot of overagers? Yes. That’s a quality buy this season.
  14. Will the Oilers buy from the USHL at the draft? Yes, fairly certain they’ll grab at least one. My favourite USHL player is probably Matej Pekar.
  15. The most obscure player eligible for the draft that you like?  Veini Vehviläinen. He is eligible and remains a fine goalie prospect.
  16. What is the best part of the draft? For me, the best part of hockey is watching these kids grow from where they are on draft day to full bloom. It’s also fun identifying the players who fit my idea of a quality player and to see if I get anywhere close to reality. I’m proud of my 2015 list, others not so much.
  17. Was this a difficult season to mark? It was, actually. Not a lot of clearance clarence from about 15 to 50, and because of it I expect there will be hella bargains on day two.

Good news for the Coyotes, and for Oilers fans it means one less bell for Oscar Klefbom to answer. OEL would be a very tempting option for Peter Chiarelli, the club may have to move on to Erik Karlsson or John Carlson. I keed.

Fascinating series of tweets from Ryan Rishaug and I think there’s an interesting conversation to be had surrounding the impending transaction. In reading reactions to these posts yesterday, I read some fabulous analytics retorts that framed the math reality perfectly. I had a lash at the subject in April (The Athletic) and concluded:

  • I take no pleasure in pointing out the offensive erosion for Lucic, done while playing with some of the world’s best skill players. However, when Chiarelli says he is confident he can get back to expectations, that’s a historically poor bet.

If we ask ourselves if “Rishaug’s tweets” more correctly reflect the actual market for Lucic than “math reality” then there’s a chance to have a useful back and forth if we can refrain from running over each other with miles of “I can’t believe you have that brain and can still breathe” verbal all the live-long day.

Rishaug works in the hockey world, where copycats are the only felines you can find at this time of year. Yes, Lucic is eroding, yes he is wearing an impossible contract. However, I don’t see trading Lucic and No. 10 overall for another ghastly contract (Loui Eriksson’s buyout is here) as being especially helpful.

Maybe there’s a deal out there that involves a general manager buying the Boston Lucic and that’s fine by me. Trading No. 10 overall and Lucic for Loui Eriksson may make sense from a math point of view, but in my opinion it’s important not to act like the 31 NHL teams make decisions via strong math, logic and reason. Maybe there’s a way after all. The biggest asset Milan Lucic has today is that he’s famous. Perhaps Peter Chiarelli can make use of that fact. Would you trade Lucic and No. 10 overall for Dion Phaneuf and No. 20? It may come to it, but I wouldn’t trade the first-round pick and maybe (if Rishaug’s spider senses are correct) Chiarelli won’t have to in order to make these good things happen. And if the deal involves retaining $3 million a year, I’m not buying at all. As I write this, Tyler Dellow just wrote on Lucic for The Athletic here.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

109 Responses to "Draft Post No. 3: Midnight Rider"

  1. Hall Awaits says:

    I think Bobby Ryan is the play. Winger to play with Leon who has better offensive instincts then Looch. They better be damn sure… whoever the return may be.

  2. Shane says:

    LT,

    What’s with the early post? Not complaining, just curious is all.

  3. luc27 says:

    My bet is they pick ty smith.

  4. luc27 says:

    Hall Awaits,

    Isnt bobby ryans skating a concern? I think ryan would produce with 1 of 2 all star centers.

  5. leeinvan says:

    The Oilers simply cant give away anymore draft picks or a young player to try and fix their mistake when they signed Lucic. This team has almost zero depth and when you see how few 2nd and 3rd round picks they have had in the last 4 years it has taken its toll.
    Personally I think they should see where Lucic is as far as does he still want to be an Oiler, if he does then they need to publicly endorse the player and hope he is better next season.
    The negative haze that seems to float over this team needs to stop.
    If Lucic wants to go, only move him if the cost is not crazy, look there are plenty of bad contracts out there and somehow teams seem to manage.
    Its almost become that if the team moves this contract all will be well, wrong the team is strong down the middle and left d and that’s it.
    Also if they do move Lucic the team still needs to find a 2nd line left winger, free agency means you will have to over pay probably for a player who had a career year last year.
    This draft is important to the Oilers, hopefully the GM is more invested in the draft than he is in trying to fix one of his many mistakes.

  6. Marc says:

    I think that Rishaug’s tweets, following on the heels of Friedman saying that the Oilers seem confident that they’ll find a deal, suggests there’s enough of a market for Lucic that there won’t be a truly ghastly contract coming back.

    For example:
    Lucic (no money retained) to Arizona for Kruger and Panik – Arizona would save more than $2M in cash this year, then has four more years of Lucic at $6M, $4M, $5M and $4M.

    Lucic ($1M retained) to Florida for McGinn – Florida saves $500K this season, then has four more years of Lucic at $5M, $3M, $4M and $3M.

    Those are deals where you could see both GMs walking away thinking that they’d done ok.

  7. Professor Q says:

    Draft + FA Season is always funny season.

    Will Oilers make minimal moves, or will a fluster occur? Mix of both?

    Speculation abounds.

    Too bad about Kovalchuk, as I’d love to see him beside Drai or McDavid (if reports of his uninterest in Edmonton are true).

    Hopefully Edmonton doesn’t trade too many of the young players.

  8. russ99 says:

    Dellow’s article is spot on, and yet again you can look to coaching and linemates.

    Putting Lucic with RNH last year may not have caused his decline but it surely didn’t help, and may have made it worse.

    Lucic historically has produced with two things, a big center/opposite side winger who can reacquire the puck after the initial rush shot and then play off his wall/crease game in higher traffic areas. It should be obvious to everyone that this isn’t RNH’s strong suit.

    He had neither center nor winger support (other than the few games he clicked with Puljujarvi) last year and much of the previous year, and was completely ineffective after the first shot as Dellow has illustrated.

    I just won’t ever understand why McLellan never went back to Lucic – Draisaitl – Slepyshev when that was a proven postseason effective line and gave Lucic the help at both center and wing to excel at his optimal game.

    Not to mention the endless line shifting that ensured almost all our players didn’t gel with linemates and led to less than expected performances.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am generally against a Klefbom out trade because I see him and Nurse anchoring our top 4 on the left side for the next decade and because Klef simply has, at worst, a contract he is full value for and, at best, a great value deal for the next 5 years – something this team really needs.

    With that said, OEL >>>> Klef so making the swap, in isolation, was an existing prospect (furthered by the OEL/Larsson pairing at the Worlds).

    On the other hand Klef plus 10 plus Puljijarvi plus the loss of $4M in cap space – that’s a deal I wouldn’t be on board with.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    If Chiarelli ends up trading Lucic for another bad contract, why in the world would we have to add any sweetener, let alone one as valuable as the 10th overall?

    If one is adding a sweetener, why would we need to take back a bad contract?

    Shouldn’t it be one or the other?

    Trick question as the answer is that it should be neither and any trade out should be with a manageable amount of salary retention, say, $1.5M – I believe the player and contract is tradeable at $4.5M – not to mention the bonus of $3.5M paid out on July 1 and the high cap hit vis-a-vis dollars earned in the following 5 years.

  11. Rondo says:

    15.”The most obscure player eligible for the draft that you like?” Ruslan Iskhakov

  12. Marc says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am generally against a Klefbom out trade because I see him and Nurse anchoring our top 4 on the left side for the next decade and because Klef simply has, at worst, a contract he is full value for and, at best, a great value deal for the next 5 years – something this team really needs.

    With that said, OEL >>>> Klef so making the swap, in isolation, was an existing prospect (furthered by the OEL/Larsson pairing at the Worlds).

    On the other hand Klef plus 10 plus Puljijarvi plus the loss of $4M in cap space – that’s a deal I wouldn’t be on board with.

    Pronger for Eric Brewer, Jeff Woywitka, and Doug Lynch (two of the Oilers top five prospects at the time) was a huge win for Edmonton.

    Pronger for Joffrey Lupul (drafted fifth overall, Anaheim’s top offensive prospect), Ladislav Šmíd (drafted ninth overall, Anaheim’s top defensive prospect), Anaheim’s 2007 first-round draft pick, a conditional first-round draft pick (condition met) and Anaheim’s 2008 second-round draft pick was a huge loss for the Oilers.

    No matter how many how many assets you give up for a true number 1 D, the team that wins the deal is almost always the team that gets the true number 1 D.

  13. Clay says:

    Put me down for “keep him”. Chia’s track record of return for trading big-name players that are desirable is poor – I shudder to think what fresh hell he’ll cook up in trading a big-name player that isn’t desirable.

    Another note – my social media is telling me this morning that Ottawa is looking for only a 1st round pick, top prospect, and a top-4 dman in return for Karlsson? I feel there will be 30 teams lining up for that in a heartbeat…

  14. knighttown says:

    I just posted yesterday that the pendulum (fan and MSM messaging) seemed to be swinging towards the Oilers getting away with giving up nothing or even getting an asset back. I thought that was unrealistic. Now you’ve swing the pendulum way back the other way suggesting the Oilers have to give up a huge asset (#10) AND accept a poison pill (Loui).

    I think it should be right in the middle. The Oilers are not getting out of this for free but the cost should be either a nice asset or the accepting of a poison pill; not both.

    For example, Caleb Jones (or a 2nd) + Lucic for nothing or more realistically to equalize money, decent players on fair contracts like Jones and Lucic for Michael Raffl (29; 1 year till UFA at 2,3M)

    Alternatively it would be Lucic for another poison pill. The poison pill could be less poisonous like Dion or Andrew Shaw at which point you’d have to add slightly.

    Shaw (3.5 AAV till 19/20) for Lucic and a 3rd

    I think 10 overall is too much.

    I think 10 overall and a poison pill is too much.

    I think getting away for free is too little.

    Somewhere between, Goldilocks, is juuuust right.

  15. Andy Dufresne says:

    “Yes, Lucic is eroding, yes he is wearing an impossible contract. However, I don’t see trading Lucic and No. 10 overall for another ghastly contract (Loui Eriksson’s buyout is here) as being especially helpful.”

    LT, I get that you sometimes speak to the extremes to make either make a point or make an opinion clearer using an obvious example

    I would say that Lucic + 10th for another bad contract is an obvious example.

    But what we are really debating here is the cost benefit analysis of trading Lucic and what might be possible.

    1) What’s out of the question?
    example Lucic + 10th for another bad contract

    2) Whats palatable?
    Example: Lucic straight up for Phanuef?

    3) Whats a win?
    Example: Lucic given away to create $6m in cap space and move a potential longer term concern?

    Youve stated the “out of the question” example.

    What is an example of “palatable” and what is an example of a “win” for you?

  16. knighttown says:

    The other way to think of the Lucic dump is, what would you give to the NHL in return for the league allowing you to spend 6 million more in salary cap for the next 5 years than every other team?

    Or, I suppose the math is, 6 million minus the average 3rd line LW salary.

    Burakovsky, Raffl, Marcus Foligno, Richard Panik are all in that 2-3 million per year and would take up a similar roster spot to Lucic.

    So what would you pay the NHL to allow you to spend 3 million more per year than the other 30 NHL teams for the next 5 years. I think it’s quite a lot.

  17. knighttown says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “Yes, Lucic is eroding, yes he is wearing an impossible contract. However, I don’t see trading Lucic and No. 10 overall for another ghastly contract (Loui Eriksson’s buyout is here) as being especially helpful.”

    LT,I get that you sometimes speak to the extremes to make either make a point or make an opinion clearer using an obvious example

    I would say that Lucic + 10th for another bad contract is an obvious example.

    But what we are really debating here is the cost benefit analysis of trading Lucic and what might be possible.

    1) What’s out of the question?
    example Lucic + 10th for another bad contract

    2) Whats palatable?
    Example: Lucic straight up for Phanuef?

    3) Whats a win?
    Example: Lucic given away to create $6m in cap space and move a longer term concern

    Youve stated the “out of the question” example.

    What is an example of “palatable” and what is an example of a “win” for you?

    Yeah. That was more succinct than I managed to say it!

  18. John Chambers says:

    Lucic won’t get traded until after his bonus is paid out July 1st.

    No need to fret over losing the #10 pick.

  19. Marc says:

    John Chambers:
    Lucic won’t get traded until after his bonus is paid out July 1st.

    No need to fret over losing the #10 pick.

    This.

  20. Westchester Oil says:

    LT – if the Oilers are intent on drafting Ty Smith, do you think they would take him (slightly off the board) at 10, or do you think they’d try to trade down 2-3 spots?

    Nando Eggenberger has got to be the best name in the draft. I’d take him for his name alone. 🙂

    On a totally unrelated note, here is how this blog is seeping into my head. After reading the article about the 79-80 Oilers two days ago, I had a dream about the Oilers last night: Darnell Nurse was playing in a game with Dave Lumley, Doug Hicks and a couple other old Oilers. After prolonged pressure in the other team’s end, Doug Hicks scored the winning goal in OT with a nice shot from the blueline.

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    russ99:
    Dellow’s article is spot on, and yet again you can look to coaching and linemates.

    Putting Lucic with RNH last year may not have caused his decline but it surely didn’t help, and may have made it worse.

    Lucic historically has produced with two things, a big center/opposite side winger who can reacquire the puck after the initial rush shot and then play off his wall/crease game in higher traffic areas. It should be obvious to everyone that this isn’t RNH’s strong suit.

    He had neither center nor winger support (other than the few games he clicked with Puljujarvi) last year and much of the previous year, and was completely ineffective after the first shot as Dellow has illustrated.

    I just won’t ever understand why McLellan never went back to Lucic – Draisaitl – Slepyshev when that was a proven postseason effective line and gave Lucic the help at both center and wing to excel at his optimal game.

    Not to mention the endless line shifting that ensured almost all our players didn’t gel with linemates and led to less than expected performances.

    Its been my opinion for the longest time that the Lucic contract was designed to be moveable in its final three years and that the Coaches job was to find a way to make Lucic a 45 pt middle six winger for the next two years. In other words , to get $4.5million of value out of the $6m contract. THis combined with Leadership qualities would make the situation palatable.

    This would require TMac to utilize systems that play to Lucics strengths. Specifically: Possession, Cycling down low; Physical net front presence (especially on the PP); Intimidation; etc AND to find the correct line combinations to maximize Lucics abilities in the Ozone.

    Having said that, A) it may be that the current roster does not have the right mix of players to fully complement Lucics style. In other words, he may be drag on other quality players like Draisaitl given the current roster construction This combined with the possiblitiy that the team is going in a different direction in terms of systems play and a desire to play to the strengths of its franchise player, (that is to play a speed and finesse game with some physical edge, like the Vegas Golden Knights for example), then Lucic does not fit the paradigm and is not a good fit given the current roster construction and any opportunity you get to move him for cap space should be exercised.

  22. Admiral Ackbar says:

    John Chambers:
    Lucic won’t get traded until after his bonus is paid out July 1st.

    No need to fret over losing the #10 pick.

    Unless Looch is traded for a piece that fills a top 6 role, PC will have some UFA work to do. I sure hope this deal is in place when the clock strikes July 1st so PC can sign another ghastly overpay.

    The best predictor of future behaviour? Past behaviour.

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Marc: Pronger for Eric Brewer, Jeff Woywitka, and Doug Lynch (two of the Oilers top five prospects at the time) was a huge win for Edmonton.

    Pronger for Joffrey Lupul (drafted fifth overall, Anaheim’s top offensive prospect),Ladislav Šmíd (drafted ninth overall, Anaheim’s top defensive prospect), Anaheim’s 2007 first-round draft pick, a conditional first-round draft pick (condition met) and Anaheim’s 2008 second-round draft pick was a huge loss for the Oilers.

    No matter how many how many assets you give up for a true number 1 D, the team that wins the deal is almost always the team that gets the true number 1 D.

    Elite players are very hard to get. I think I’m more aggressive than many here regarding this, but I would always trade second tier and lower players, and lower picks, to get an elite player or if the chance presented, a top 2 or 3 pick.

    This year it would be a top 2, I wouldn’t roll the dice on Zadina.

  24. PennersPancakes says:

    Admiral Ackbar: Unless Looch is traded for a piece that fills a top 6 role, PC will have some UFA work to do.

    Even if Lucic isn’t traded PC will need to find a top 6 winger. Lucic in his first/best Oilers season played like a third liner at evens and a god on the PP. Considering his ES scoring has been trending down for some time and he has never been a solid PP option I’d be concerned betting on him returning to a top 6 role.

  25. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers roster and style really don’t suit Lucic, and I can’t see them finding a style that suits him any time soon even if McLellan is trying to get them to be stronger holding the O zone.

    I would think that would be the biggest reason he would want a change. I do think he has been key in changing the tone of the team for the better, so his time with the Oilers has been good for the team in that way.

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    Westchester Oil: LT – if the Oilers are intent on drafting Ty Smith, do you think they would take him (slightly off the board) at 10, or do you think they’d try to trade down 2-3 spots?

    If the Oilers find that there are four or more guys they like equally well at 10 …..example: Smith, Hayton, Kravtzov, Kotkaniemi,

    I could see the Oilers moving down in a trade with someone like Philidelphia for example trading 10+71 for 14+50

    Giving them 14, 40, 50

    Of course I get that many would jump on Kotkaniemi at 10 …but if the Oilers have a group they see as equal I could see a small move down and evenpotentially being able to grab Smith at 14

  27. Munny says:

    LT said…

    Trading No. 10 overall and Lucic for Loui Eriksson may make sense from a math point of view, but in my opinion it’s important not to act like the 31 NHL teams make decisions via strong math, logic and reason.

    Is this the new post-modernist Math? Please post the mathematical reasoning, because I don’t see it.

  28. Rondo says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I would think Bouchard, Kotkaniemi, and Wahlstrom are ahead of Ty Smith on the Oilers list.

  29. 36 percent body fat says:

    Ty Smith? Puke! No russel comparisons.

    Did we not learn with Smid and Russel that laying on the ice all game is a great way to get scored on.

  30. McSorley33 says:

    As others have mentioned, lost in the dump Looch camp is that Maroon and Lucic still top 6 forward scorers – for the Oilers.

    By dumping both wingers ( Looch and Patty) – the forward depth looks absolutely *ghastly*.

    Really rolling the dice on the Big Finn and the little American making a push.

    For the record, I am in the dump Lucic camp.

  31. Jaxon says:

    I still don’t understand how Mascherin didn’t get traded. I believe he was probably willing to go to a few different teams. I have a hard time believing a scoring winger wouldn’t want to play on McDavid’s left wing, where Benson may be his biggest competition in the future. And if he didn’t get on McDavid’s wing he would likely play with Draisaitl. Now he faces not having any choice and possibly getting picked up by Florida again, which has happened in the past. That seems boneheaded on MAscherin’s part and on Florida’s part to not get anything. It also seems boneheaded on every GM in the NHL not to even offer the bare minimum so you don’t have to spend a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick on him. He’s an extra asset. Right before the deadline I was proposing #10 & #71 for #15, #34 & Mascherin. Edmonton could have come out of that draft with something like: (brackets show lists the player was one for best of draft tools via Pronman’s The Athletic article and Grant McCagg’s Recrutes)

    Someone in this range at #15:
    11. Veleno 12. Farabee 13. Smith (IQ) 14. Hayton (IQ, Defensive Fwd, Playmaking, stickhandling)
    15. Kupari (skating, stickhandling)
    16. Lundestrom (IQ, Defensive Fwd, Competitive/Physical) 17. Kravtsov (shot, his adjusted 5-on-5 Primary Pts/60 was best in draft, although it was onde with 5 minutes of ice time per game so against 4th line KHL players, who are probably still better than most junior players)
    18. Bokk (stickhandling) 19. Merkley (skating, IQ, playmaking, stickhandling) 20. Dellandrea (defensive fwd)
    21. Wilde (skating, shot) 22. Denisenko

    I’d take Merkley at #15 and maybe even #10 where Pronman has him. So much upside and a perfect fit for Edmonton (add a right-handed D who is among the best at skating, playmaking and IQ to McDavid and Draisaitl? Yes, please).

    Someone in this range at #34:
    Serron Noel (physical),
    Jonatan Berggren (IQ, playmaking)
    K’Andre Miller (physical, defensive D, his 5-on-5 Primary Pts / 60 was off the charts good up there with Dahlin)
    Calen Addison (RD, playmaker)

    I doubt Noel will be available, Not sure any of them will be. Most likely would be Addison. Maybe I’d take someone from the next tier…

    Someone in the #40 range:
    Calen Addison (RD, playmaker)
    Nils Lundkvist (I read a scouting report saying they saw him better than Boqvist in an international tourny)
    Jesse Ylonen (one of the fastest skaters in the draft)
    Jakub Lauko (one of the fastest skaters in the draft, one of the best shots, and one of the most competitive)
    Liam Foudy (fastest or 2nd fastest in the draft)
    Johnny Gruden (his 5-on-5 Primary Pts is elite, his scouting reports are flawless, IQ, compete, speed, decent size at 5’11.75″. I really don’t understand why he’s not at least top 15)

    and Masherin (Pronman lists him as one of the best shots available. Wouldn’t that be nice on a McDavid or Draisaitl wing and he should be very close to NHL-ready)

    Merkley, Lauko/Addison, Gruden, Mascherin would have been amazing.
    Instead, maybe it will be Merkley, Lauko and whoever they get at #71.

    Okay, I think I’ve exorcised that one, now I can let it go.

  32. godot10 says:

    Most of the time, I don’t see the point of drafting overagers late in drafts. It is a poor use of late round picks. Just sign them after their draft eligibility expires.

    If an overager is good enough to draft, he should be drafted in the first two or three rounds.

  33. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon: I still don’t understand how Mascherin didn’t get traded

    Possibly the Panthers wanted too much combined with that he doesn’t carry deep interest with teams and he’ll now cost a later round pick.

  34. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    Most of the time, I don’t see the point of drafting overagers late in drafts.It is a poor use of late round picks.Just sign them after their draft eligibility expires.

    If an overager is good enough to draft, he should be drafted in the first two or three rounds.

    I concur on this strategy.

  35. Scungilli Slushy says:

    McSorley33:
    As others have mentioned, lost in the dump Looch camp is that Maroon and Lucic still top 6 forward scorers – for the Oilers.

    By dumping both wingers ( Looch and Patty) – the forward depth looks absolutely *ghastly*.

    Really rolling the dice on the Big Finn and the little American making a push.

    For the record, I am in the dump Lucic camp.

    If Lucic is dealt perhaps we see Maroon back. His underlying numbers we’re pretty good and he’ll cost less with less term.

  36. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If Lucic is dealt perhaps we see Maroon back. His underlying numbers we’re pretty good and he’ll cost less with less term.

    And he restores the pugilistic balance LW C RW.

  37. leadfarmer says:

    Wait a year. AFter July 1st on next year his contract is 4mil per year. Retain a million. Someone who never reaches cap will take him at 3 mil per. Hes a famous enough player

  38. jonrmcleod says:

    “unless…” UNLESS WHAT?!

  39. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon:
    I still don’t understand how Mascherin didn’t get traded. I believe he was probably willing to go to a few different teams. I have a hard time believing a scoring winger wouldn’t want to play on McDavid’s left wing, where Benson may be his biggest competition in the future. And if he didn’t get on McDavid’s wing he would likely play with Draisaitl. Now he faces not having any choice and possibly getting picked up by Florida again, which has happened in the past. That seems boneheaded on MAscherin’s part and on Florida’s part to not get anything. It also seems boneheaded on every GM in the NHL not to even offer the bare minimum so you don’t have to spend a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick on him. He’s an extra asset. Right before the deadline I was proposing #10 & #71 for #15, #34 & Mascherin. Edmonton could have come out of that draft with something like: (brackets show lists the player was one for best of draft tools via Pronman’s The Athletic article and Grant McCagg’s Recrutes)

    Someone in this range at #15:
    11. Veleno 12. Farabee 13. Smith (IQ) 14. Hayton (IQ, Defensive Fwd, Playmaking, stickhandling)
    15. Kupari (skating, stickhandling)
    16. Lundestrom (IQ, Defensive Fwd, Competitive/Physical) 17. Kravtsov (shot, his adjusted 5-on-5 Primary Pts/60 was best in draft, although it was onde with 5 minutes of ice time per game so against 4th line KHL players, who are probably still better than most junior players)
    18. Bokk (stickhandling) 19. Merkley (skating, IQ, playmaking, stickhandling) 20. Dellandrea (defensive fwd)
    21. Wilde (skating, shot) 22. Denisenko

    I’d take Merkley at #15 and maybe even #10 where Pronman has him. So much upside and a perfect fit for Edmonton (add a right-handed D who is among the best at skating, playmaking and IQ to McDavid and Draisaitl? Yes, please).

    Someone in this range at #34:
    Serron Noel (physical),
    Jonatan Berggren (IQ, playmaking)
    K’Andre Miller (physical, defensive D, his 5-on-5 Primary Pts / 60 was off the charts good up there with Dahlin)
    Calen Addison (RD, playmaker)

    I doubt Noel will be available, Not sure any of them will be. Most likely would be Addison. Maybe I’d take someone from the next tier…

    Someone in the #40 range:
    Calen Addison (RD, playmaker)
    Nils Lundkvist (I read a scouting report saying they saw him better than Boqvist in an international tourny)
    Jesse Ylonen (one of the fastest skaters in the draft)
    Jakub Lauko (one of the fastest skaters in the draft, one of the best shots, and one of the most competitive)
    Liam Foudy (fastest or 2nd fastest in the draft)
    Johnny Gruden (his 5-on-5 Primary Pts is elite, his scouting reports are flawless, IQ, compete, speed, decent size at 5’11.75″. I really don’t understand why he’s not at least top 15)

    and Masherin (Pronman lists him as one of the best shots available. Wouldn’t that be nice on a McDavid or Draisaitl wing and he should be very close to NHL-ready)

    Merkley, Lauko/Addison, Gruden, Mascherin would have been amazing.
    Instead, maybe it will be Merkley, Lauko and whoever they get at #71.

    Okay, I think I’ve exorcised that one, now I can let it go.

    Ya. That’s truly a head scratcher. You think teams would be lined up to get Mascherin and that Florida would simply take the best offer. There must be something at play we don’t know about. Will be real interesting to see where he is drafted.

  40. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: Ya. That’s truly a head scratcher. You think teams would be lined up to get Mascherin and that Florida would simply take the best offer. There must be something at play we don’t know about. Will be real interesting to see where he is drafted.

    Perhaps Mascherin wanted more money than his draft slot warranted.

    Perhaps Florida did not want to discount him in a trade, and be seen as a pushover for future draft picks and by other teams.

  41. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Well, he might have wanted to re-enter the draft, who knows?

  42. UnjustEnrichment says:

    I am always interested in intangibles, so what I have to say here is highly subjective. Not analytics-based, that’s for sure.

    Based on listening to some interviews, I would have to rank Boqvist and Hughes much higher than Bouchard, Dobson and Smith. Boqvist and Hughes both exude a quiet confidence that is attractive if I am drafting a player that can survive the challenges of getting into the NHL (and Oiler coaching). Boqvist is the most man-like and mature of the lot in the way he presents himself. When listening to him, one imagines that he is a whole lot bigger than he actually is physically. He would go well with Klefbom and Larson as mentors. Hughes seems highly intelligent and talkative. Lots and lots of potential there. One can imagine him fitting in well on a team and eventually becoming someone who is listened to and respected in the locker room. He is a thinker and potential leader. Bouchard and Dobson have confidence but I did not find their statements all that interesting. My impression of them both was that they may have less room to grow and develop than some of the others. They are more one-dimensional. Bouchard’s skating is a concern, but perhaps his passing makes up for that. Ty Smith may have lots of good tools as a player, but I thought he was insecure and lacking in confidence when interviewed. He seemed a little shy. He may develop more confidence and security over time, but I worry about how he will fare with Oiler coaching. (I note that Bobby Orr was very shy, and look how he turned out.) I realize that these are all young men and that they have a lot of growing and maturing to do, mentally and physically. I wish them all well.

    I’ve also watched a few video clips of these players.

    I would be very happy if the Oilers were to choose Boqvist or Hughes. My ranking would be as follows:
    1. Boqvist
    2. Hughes
    3. Dobson
    4. Bouchard
    5. Smith

    If Kotkaniemi is available at 10, I would prefer Boqvist or Hughes. After that, I think I’d go with Kotkaniemi even if Dobson, Bouchard and Smith are still available.

  43. Oilin4 says:

    Admiral Ackbar: Unless Looch is traded for a piece that fills a top 6 role, PC will have some UFA work to do. I sure hope this deal is in place when the clock strikes July 1st so PC can sign another ghastly overpay.

    The best predictor of future behaviour? Past behaviour.

    I’d gladly trade a Lucic overpay for a different overpay. In one way or another Chia is going to swing for the fences, damn the LT consequences this summer. It’s all he knows….Well, given his record I wouldn’t call it knowledge….It’s all he thinks.

  44. Richard S.S. says:

    Oscar Klefbom can be traded for anyone, if the eventual replacement is an upgrade.
    In other words, trade Klefbom, in whatever package, to acquire a need. N.B.: Also acquire an upgrade at Klefbom’s position, basically upgrading two positions. That might not be,possible.

    Milan Lucic has a very good work ethic. He will push himself hard to remain relavent in the NHL as it changes. I am fairly sure he will provide more benefit by staying than the Oilers can get by trading him. In his two years with the Team, Connor McDavid has not missed a game. In Connor’s only year without Milan he missed almost half a Season (Taylor Hall’s last year wasn’t it?). I trust him to be better and so should everyone else. After all using similar reasoning, if you say you will do something, why should anyone trust you?

  45. Ribs says:

    luc27:
    Hall Awaits,

    Isnt bobby ryans skating a concern? I think ryan would produce with 1 of 2 all star centers.

    I think Bobby Ryan’s everything is a concern. It could be like getting Joffrey Lupul back at $7.25M a year.

  46. Professor Q says:

    Why are we wanting to trade everyone and everything, again?

    Why do we think it’d be easy to do so in the first place, and that we’d come out positive and the winners?

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ribs: rounds

    Ribs: I think Bobby Ryan’s everything is a concern. It could be like getting Joffrey Lupul back at $7.25M a year.

    Is there any value in getting Ryan’s LTIR? I think it’s almost a given that he will be hurt for most of his contract. But I believe LTIR doesn’t help you until after the season starts. Otherwise I have zero interest in Ryan.

  48. Andy Dufresne says:

    If the Oilers dont move up to grab a Bouchard, Dobson, or Whalstrom

    Then I am hoping that our host is rewarded for all of his hard work and passion with the Oilers selecting Ty Smith at 10. LT has him ranked at 5, so I assume that getting him at 10 would rank up there with some of the Oilers best drafts in recent history ( Eberle at 22, Kelfbom at 19, Draisaitl at 3, MAP at 22). LT is a “goto” resource for all things “draft/prospect”…..I definitely trust his judgment over my ‘weak’ assessments that are based soley on what I read about. LT was the first (only) draft analyst I know that had the conviction to rank Smith as high as he did and since then Smith has climbed the rankings on most lists. It reminds of the year that he was even higher on Mitch Marner than the consenus was, and he was right about that one to.

    So heres hoping that the Oilers are fortunate enough to get Smith at 10 and we can all “Have a beer and then…..”…….well you know…..

    Ivan Provorov

    17 yr old season
    2014-2015 Brandon Wheat Kings WHL 60 15 46 61

    18 yr old season
    2015-2016 Brandon Wheat Kings WHL 62 21 52 73

    Ty Smith

    16 yr old season
    2016-17 Spokane Chiefs WHL 66 5 27 32

    17 yr old season
    2017-18 Spokane Chiefs WHL 69 14 59 73

    18 yr old season
    2018-19 Spokane Chiefs WHL ?……?……?……?

    EDIT: Caveat….if we draft defensman Smith hes got to sign a document promising to NEVER score on his own net in playoff game 7’s

  49. pts2pndr says:

    knighttown:
    The other way to think of the Lucic dump is, what would you give to the NHL in return for the league allowing you to spend 6 million more in salary cap for the next 5 years than every other team?

    Or, I suppose the math is, 6 million minus the average 3rd line LW salary.

    Burakovsky, Raffl, Marcus Foligno, Richard Panik are all in that 2-3 million per year and would take up a similar roster spot to Lucic.

    So what would you pay the NHL to allow you to spend 3 million more per year than the other 30 NHL teams for the next 5 years.I think it’s quite a lot.

    That kind of logic would allow you to do very well in the sale of used cars!

  50. pts2pndr says:

    UnjustEnrichment:
    I am always interested in intangibles, so what I have to say here is highly subjective. Not analytics-based, that’s for sure.

    Based on listening to some interviews, I would have to rank Boqvist and Hughes much higher than Bouchard, Dobson and Smith.Boqvist and Hughes both exude a quiet confidence thatis attractive if I am drafting a player that can survive the challenges of getting into the NHL (and Oiler coaching). Boqvist is the most man-like and mature of the lot in the way he presents himself. When listening to him, one imagines that he is a whole lot bigger than he actually is physically.He would go well with Klefbom and Larson as mentors. Hughes seems highly intelligent and talkative. Lots and lots of potential there. One can imagine him fitting in well on a team and eventually becoming someone who is listened to and respected in the locker room. He is a thinker and potential leader. Bouchard and Dobson have confidence butI did not find their statements all that interesting. My impression of them both was that they may have less room to grow and develop than some of the others. They are more one-dimensional. Bouchard’s skating is a concern, but perhaps his passing makes up for that. Ty Smith may have lots of good tools as a player, but I thought he was insecure and lacking in confidencewhen interviewed. He seemed a littleshy. He may develop more confidence and security over time, but I worry about how he will fare with Oiler coaching. (I note that Bobby Orr was very shy, and look how he turned out.) I realize that these are all young men and that they have a lot of growing and maturing to do, mentally and physically.I wish them all well.

    I’ve also watched a few video clips of these players.

    I would be very happy if the Oilers were to choose Boqvist or Hughes. My ranking would be as follows:
    1. Boqvist
    2. Hughes
    3. Dobson
    4. Bouchard
    5. Smith

    If Kotkaniemi is available at 10, I would prefer Boqvist or Hughes. After that, I think I’d go with Kotkaniemi even ifDobson, Bouchard and Smith are still available.

    I agree, with the possible exception of Dobson given the shortage of right shot defensemen ( top pairing ) in the NHL.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Shane:
    LT,

    What’s with the early post? Not complaining, just curious is all.

    Making that Medicine Hat to Edmonton run, and wanted to get an early start. 🙂

  52. Lowetide says:

    knighttown:
    I just posted yesterday that the pendulum (fan and MSM messaging) seemed to be swinging towards the Oilers getting away with giving up nothing or even getting an asset back.I thought that was unrealistic.Now you’ve swing the pendulum way back the other way suggesting the Oilers have to give up a huge asset (#10) AND accept a poison pill (Loui).

    I think it should be right in the middle.The Oilers are not getting out of this for free but the cost should be either a nice asset or the accepting of a poison pill; not both.

    For example, Caleb Jones (or a 2nd) + Lucic for nothing or more realistically to equalize money, decent players on fair contracts like Jones and Lucic for Michael Raffl (29; 1 year till UFA at 2,3M)

    Alternatively it would be Lucic for another poison pill.The poison pill could be less poisonous like Dion or Andrew Shaw at which point you’d have to add slightly.

    Shaw (3.5 AAV till 19/20) for Lucic and a 3rd

    I think 10 overall is too much.

    I think 10 overall and a poison pill is too much.

    I think getting away for free is too little.

    Somewhere between, Goldilocks, is juuuust right.

    Yeah, I wasn’t so much offering solutions as blue skying.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne:

    Youve stated the “out of the question” example.

    What is an example of “palatable” and what is an example of a “win” for you?

    Ah, but that was my question to you! I’m not certain, and that’s the truth. Lucic and 40 for Phaneuf and a third round pick? I like that better but it makes me grumpy.

  54. Lowetide says:

    Westchester Oil:
    LT – if the Oilers are intent on drafting Ty Smith, do you think they would take him (slightly off the board) at 10, or do you think they’d try to trade down 2-3 spots?

    Nando Eggenberger has got to be the best name in the draft. I’d take him for his name alone. 🙂

    On a totally unrelated note, here is how this blog is seeping into my head. After reading the article about the 79-80 Oilers two days ago, I had a dream about the Oilers last night: Darnell Nurse was playing in a game with Dave Lumley, Doug Hicks and a couple other old Oilers. After prolonged pressure in the other team’s end, Doug Hicks scored the winning goal in OT with a nice shot from the blueline.

    I think you stand and deliver at that point, so would suggest drafting your guy.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    Draft + FA Season is always funny season.

    Will Oilers make minimal moves, or will a fluster occur? Mix of both?

    Speculation abounds.

    Too bad about Kovalchuk, as I’d love to see him beside Drai or McDavid (if reports of his uninterest in Edmonton are true).

    Hopefully Edmonton doesn’t trade too many of the young players.

    Kovalchuk would be amazing in our top 6.

    Of course, even if he wanted to come here, we don’t have the cap space (maybe if we disposed of Lucic with zero retention we could fit him in – maybe combine it with a Russell buyout) and I would not be on board with sending out a member of the core to open up the cap space.

    Additinoally, I believe he is looking for at least a few years of term which is a non-starter unless his 35 plus contract has a very low AAV and is performance bonus laden (which I don’t think he is amendable to).

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Dellow’s article is spot on, and yet again you can look to coaching and linemates.

    Putting Lucic with RNH last year may not have caused his decline but it surely didn’t help, and may have made it worse.

    Nuge and Lucic did fine together last year – in 315 minutes, their possession numbers were almost exactly 50% and their goal share was at 56%.

    I didn’t go as far as research their right wingers but overall they were a fine pair together in 2017/18 – they scored more than they got scored on and, without researching, my guess is their minutes were not soft.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marc: Pronger for Eric Brewer, Jeff Woywitka, and Doug Lynch (two of the Oilers top five prospects at the time) was a huge win for Edmonton.

    Pronger for Joffrey Lupul (drafted fifth overall, Anaheim’s top offensive prospect),Ladislav Šmíd (drafted ninth overall, Anaheim’s top defensive prospect), Anaheim’s 2007 first-round draft pick, a conditional first-round draft pick (condition met) and Anaheim’s 2008 second-round draft pick was a huge loss for the Oilers.

    No matter how many how many assets you give up for a true number 1 D, the team that wins the deal is almost always the team that gets the true number 1 D.

    Valid points, however, our cap structure changes the way we need to look at these types of moves, in my opinion.

    Klef at $4.1M exchanged for OEL at $8.5M (on a contract that will take him well past his prime) is a massive factor (in addition to giving up other assets that are potential material contributors and value contract).

    I’m not saying I wouldn’t do it but it would have consequences elsewhere in the lineup.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Clay:

    Another note – my social media is telling me this morning that Ottawa is looking for only a 1st round pick, top prospect, and a top-4 dman in return for Karlsson?I feel there will be 30 teams lining up for that in a heartbeat…

    Not without an extension in hand – which cannot be in hand until after the draft.

    Kalrsson’s injury history also scares that crap out of me.

  59. Visually better says:

    This Hoffman/karlsson stuff is some of the most bizarre and disturbing stuff I’ve read in a while.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    As others have mentioned, lost in the dump Looch camp is that Maroon and Lucic still top 6 forward scorers – for the Oilers.

    By dumping both wingers ( Looch and Patty) – the forward depth looks absolutely *ghastly*.

    Really rolling the dice on the Big Finn and the little American making a push.

    For the record, I am in the dump Lucic camp.

    Sure, in isolation, however, presumably, dumping Lucic comes with the new cap space to acquire a replacement left winger.

    For example, I still believe he can be traded wtih $1.5M of retention and a $4.5M cap hit.

    That $4.5M can be used to pay for his replacement, such as Namestnikov and Pulock – boom middle 6 LW and young 2RD.

    Of course, we’d need to trade for both those players, however, I don’t think either will be overly expensive (including Namestnikov).

    Namestnikov is just an example of a cheap young player – there are others and, of course, the entire $4.5M in savings can be spent on the replacement LW as well.

  61. texmex says:

    Anyone listening to Stauffer trying to blame Lucic’s issues last year on his eyesight? Saying he squints a lot on the ice and maybe doesn’t wear contacts in case he gets in a fight?!?!?. Good gravy man, I think Stauffer has lost all credibility with that statement.

  62. Lowetide says:

    texmex:
    Anyone listening to Stauffer trying to blame Lucic’s issues last year on his eyesight? Saying he squints a lot on the ice and maybe doesn’t wear contacts in case he gets in a fight?!?!?. Good gravy man, I think Stauffer has lost all credibility with that statement.

    I’ve mentioned his vision/range as being an issue in the past, so would agree with Bob. He doesn’t pick up the pick even when it is nearby.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Oscar Klefbom can be traded for anyone, if the eventual replacement is an upgrade.
    In other words, trade Klefbom, in whatever package, to acquire a need.N.B.: Also acquire an upgrade at Klefbom’s position, basically upgrading two positions.That might not be,possible.

    Milan Lucic has a very good work ethic. He will push himself hard to remain relavent in the NHL as it changes.I am fairly sure he will provide more benefit by staying than the Oilers can get by trading him. In his two years with the Team, Connor McDavid has not missed a game.In Connor’s only year without Milan he missed almost half a Season (Taylor Hall’s last year wasn’t it?).I trust him to be better and so should everyone else.After all using similar reasoning, if you say you will do something, why should anyone trust you?

    I have zero doubt that Lucic on the team would have changed absolutely nothing with respect to Brandon Manning’s play on McDavid, nothing.

  64. texmex says:

    Lowetide,

    Well, if Lucic needs corrective lenses and refuses to wear them, he deserves every ounce of criticism thrown at him IMO.

  65. Professor Q says:

    texmex:
    Lowetide,

    Well, if Lucic needs corrective lenses and refuses to wear them, he deserves every ounce of criticism thrown at him IMO.

    He used to, but had LasikMD while in Boston (or equivalent LASER Eye Surgery). Maybe it deteriorated since then, and he hasn’t fully realized it yet or to a significant degree, however.

  66. Lowetide says:

    texmex:
    Lowetide,

    Well, if Lucic needs corrective lenses and refuses to wear them, he deserves every ounce of criticism thrown at him IMO.

    Agreed. It’s a farily recent problem though, so maybe he did the Moreau Mandelbaum muscle bound workout program. Doesn’t have to be eyes, maybe his mobility is screwed.

  67. Melman says:

    Professor Q: He used to, but had LasikMD while in Boston (or equivalent LASER Eye Surgery). Maybe it deteriorated since then, and he hasn’t fully realized it yet or to a significant degree, however.

    Maybe someone can get Joey Kocur to give Looch a call

  68. PennersPancakes says:

    Visually better:
    This Hoffman/karlsson stuff is some of the most bizarre and disturbing stuff I’ve read in a while.

    Whether its true or not (I cant think of any reason why someone would falsely get an order of protection) there are no winners in this situation. I cant help but feel for the Karlsson family for everything they’ve gone through and hope they find some peace. Between the entire last season, this, and the Randy Lee situation I also feel for the Senator fans.

    For anyone curious heres a link to the Ottawa sun:

    http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/mike-hoffmans-longtime-girlfriend-allegedly-behind-campaign-of-harassment-against-melinda-and-erik-karlsson

  69. russ99 says:

    Visually better,

    I think that Sporting Lisbon soccer team story is much more bizarre.

    Club president calls out players by name on social media and suspends 17 of them.

    Then after their Europa League loss, a gang of 50 people in masks storms the training center, overwhelming security and beating up the players and staff.

    Some are suspecting the club president is behind it.

    Now all the star players petitioned the Portugal Football Association to rescind their contracts and are in a sense free agents.

  70. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    I still think Lucic’s hands are a result of slow feet, knowing he can’t pivot/maneuver out of traffic anymore his hands can’t compensate for the lack of foot speed, so he gives up the puck asap regardless.

    The Sens are imploding like I’ve never seen before. Everything there is sad.

  71. Melman says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur,

    I remember Glenn Anderson saying it isn’t a players wheels that go first, but rather his hands (probably in conjunction with eyesight). Mother Nature does note get denied!

  72. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Listening to Sens radio puts Lucic’ bloated contract and other Oilers drama in perspective:

    -Karlsson v Hoffman personal disaster
    -Asst GM charged with harassment
    -Old Captain says need new owner
    -Fans say need new owner (+arena)
    -Fans stay away from arena even in playoffs
    -Owner says fuck it, basically.
    -1 goal away from the finals to bottom feeders
    -Bobby Ryan’s contract? Matt Duchene let down? What else?

    What a disaster. Human, personal disasters.

    EDIT: Health Canada recalls thousands of Sens onesies for choking risk. Really.

  73. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Melman,

    Probably true – if anyone would know it would be him!

    Lucic just looks like I look when I’m playing with faster players. My feet can’t keep up so my hands over compensate, which they can’t so I look terrible.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    PennersPancakes: Whether its true or not (I cant think of any reason why someone would falsely get an order of protection) there are no winners in this situation. I cant help but feel for the Karlsson family for everything they’ve gone through and hope they find some peace. Between the entire last season, this, and the Randy Lee situation I also feel for the Senator fans.

    For anyone curious heres a link to the Ottawa sun:

    http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/mike-hoffmans-longtime-girlfriend-allegedly-behind-campaign-of-harassment-against-melinda-and-erik-karlsson

    You have to think there is more to this than meets the eye.

    Both the wives of Andrew Hammond and Kyle Terri’s had commented on this earlier on social media.

    High School Confidential.

  75. dustrock says:

    Someone on HFB Ottawa posted about this about a month ago.

    Said there was no way Hoffman and Karlsson would both be on the Sens next year.

    They probably tried to handle this as privately as possible but someone got ahold of the court application and now it’s out in public.

    Gonna get real ugly.

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: If the Oilers find that there are four or more guys they like equally well at 10 …..example: Smith, Hayton, Kravtzov, Kotkaniemi,

    I could see the Oilers moving down in a trade with someone like Philidelphia for example trading 10+71 for 14+50

    Giving them 14, 40, 50

    Of course I get that many would jump on Kotkaniemi at 10 …but if the Oilers have a group they see as equal I could see a small move down and evenpotentially being able tograb Smith at 14

    Not to keep harping on this point, but the trade would probably look more like this:

    10 for 14 + 50.

    Even then the value probably favors Philidelphia… Edmonton pulled a similar trade at the 2017 draft:

    78 for 82 + 125

    If this is how NHL GM’s value third round picks, and Philidelphia has their heart set on a guy that falls to ten, even this isn’t out of the question:

    10 for 14 + 19**

    In any case, the Oiler’s definately don’t add 71 into the mix.
    _____________________________________________________

    ** Let’s look at this historically, based loosely on the numbers above (10, 14, 19), in the event that someone falls to 10 (so we’re looking at picks 9-11 for 14+19). It’s best-case scenario, but then at the draft everyone is thinking “their guy” is the next coming, otherwise they wouldn’t trade up, right?

    2015: Rantanen for DeBrusk + Svechnikov (early, so far it’s a loss for the Trade Down team)
    2014: Ehlers for Honka + DeAngelo (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2013: Horvat for Wennberg + Rychel (about equal value)
    2012: Trouba for Girgensens + Vasilevskiy (hard to say, AV had 15th best GAA among starters, Trouba is probably worth more)
    2011: Hamilton for Oleksiak + Klefbom (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2010: Granlund for Schwartz + Bjugstad (win for the Trade Down team)
    2009: Paajarvi for Kulikov + Kreider (win for the Trade Down team)
    2008: Bailey for Boychuk + Sbisa (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2007: Couture for Shattenkirk + MacMillan (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2006: Frolik for Grabner + Mitera (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2005: Kopitar for Pokulok + Kindl (loss for the Trade Down team)

    So that’s 8 lost trades, 2 won trades and 1 wash. Recent history tells us that it’s NOT a good idea to trade 10 for 14+19 – and that trade is *MILES* better than what you were proposing.

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    Trading No. 10 overall and Lucic for Loui Eriksson may make sense from a math point of view, but in my opinion it’s important not to act like the 31 NHL teams make decisions via strong math, logic and reason.

    Is this the new post-modernist Math?Please post the mathematical reasoning, because I don’t see it.

    It doesn’t exist, at least in this dimension.

  78. ArmchairGM says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Ty Smith? Puke!No russel comparisons.

    Did we not learn with Smid and Russel that laying on the ice all game is a great way to get scored on.

    Well, it worked for Hasek.

  79. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10:
    Most of the time, I don’t see the point of drafting overagers late in drafts.It is a poor use of late round picks.Just sign them after their draft eligibility expires.

    If an overager is good enough to draft, he should be drafted in the first two or three rounds.

    If he was good enough to draft in the first two or three rounds, he would’ve been drafted in his first year of eligibility. If prospects from late 99 have a distinct advantage over the (say) August 2000, how much more a late 98?

  80. ArmchairGM says:

    UnjustEnrichment:
    I am always interested in intangibles, so what I have to say here is highly subjective. Not analytics-based, that’s for sure.

    Based on listening to some interviews, I would have to rank Boqvist and Hughes much higher than Bouchard, Dobson and Smith.Boqvist and Hughes both exude a quiet confidence thatis attractive if I am drafting a player that can survive the challenges of getting into the NHL (and Oiler coaching). Boqvist is the most man-like and mature of the lot in the way he presents himself. When listening to him, one imagines that he is a whole lot bigger than he actually is physically.He would go well with Klefbom and Larson as mentors. Hughes seems highly intelligent and talkative. Lots and lots of potential there. One can imagine him fitting in well on a team and eventually becoming someone who is listened to and respected in the locker room. He is a thinker and potential leader. Bouchard and Dobson have confidence butI did not find their statements all that interesting. My impression of them both was that they may have less room to grow and develop than some of the others. They are more one-dimensional. Bouchard’s skating is a concern, but perhaps his passing makes up for that. Ty Smith may have lots of good tools as a player, but I thought he was insecure and lacking in confidencewhen interviewed. He seemed a littleshy. He may develop more confidence and security over time, but I worry about how he will fare with Oiler coaching. (I note that Bobby Orr was very shy, and look how he turned out.) I realize that these are all young men and that they have a lot of growing and maturing to do, mentally and physically.I wish them all well.

    I’ve also watched a few video clips of these players.

    I would be very happy if the Oilers were to choose Boqvist or Hughes. My ranking would be as follows:
    1. Boqvist
    2. Hughes
    3. Dobson
    4. Bouchard
    5. Smith

    If Kotkaniemi is available at 10, I would prefer Boqvist or Hughes. After that, I think I’d go with Kotkaniemi even ifDobson, Bouchard and Smith are still available.

    Very interesting, thank you for sharing this. Your ranking is very close to mine, but while I’d love to have Kotkaniemi, I’m not sure I’d draft him ahead of one of the RHD just due to organizational need – I’d have to think long and hard about that.

  81. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Not to keep harping on this point, but the trade would probably look more like this:

    10 for 14 + 50.

    Even then the value probably favors Philidelphia… Edmonton pulled a similar trade at the 2017 draft:

    78 for 82 + 125

    If this is how NHL GM’s value third round picks, and Philidelphia has their heart set on a guy that falls to ten, even this isn’t out of the question:

    10 for 14 + 19**

    In any case, the Oiler’s definately don’t add 71 into the mix.
    _____________________________________________________

    ** Let’s look at this historically, based loosely on the numbers above (10, 14, 19), in the event that someone falls to 10 (so we’re looking at picks 9-11 for 14+19). It’s best-case scenario, but then at the draft everyone is thinking “their guy” is the next coming, otherwise they wouldn’t trade up, right?

    2015: Rantanen for DeBrusk + Svechnikov (early, so far it’s a loss for the Trade Down team)
    2014: Ehlers for Honka + DeAngelo (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2013: Horvat for Wennberg + Rychel (about equal value)
    2012: Trouba for Girgensens + Vasilevskiy (hard to say, AV had 15th best GAA among starters, Trouba is probably worth more)
    2011: Hamilton for Oleksiak + Klefbom (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2010: Granlund for Schwartz + Bjugstad (win for the Trade Down team)
    2009: Paajarvi for Kulikov + Kreider (win for the Trade Down team)
    2008: Bailey for Boychuk + Sbisa (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2007: Couture for Shattenkirk + MacMillan (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2006: Frolik for Grabner + Mitera (loss for the Trade Down team)
    2005: Kopitar for Pokulok + Kindl (loss for the Trade Down team)

    So that’s 8 lost trades, 2 won trades and 1 wash. Recent history tells us that it’s NOT a good idea to trade 10 for 14+19 – and that trade is *MILES* better than what you were proposing.

    The historical stuff is interesting and has value, but every draft is different. And in this particular draft there are a lot of guys bunched together. So maybe this is a good year to do it.

  82. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “Yes, Lucic is eroding, yes he is wearing an impossible contract. However, I don’t see trading Lucic and No. 10 overall for another ghastly contract (Loui Eriksson’s buyout is here) as being especially helpful.”

    LT,I get that you sometimes speak to the extremes to make either make a point or make an opinion clearer using an obvious example

    I would say that Lucic + 10th for another bad contract is an obvious example.

    But what we are really debating here is the cost benefit analysis of trading Lucic and what might be possible.

    1) What’s out of the question?
    example Lucic + 10th for another bad contract

    2) Whats palatable?
    Example: Lucic straight up for Phanuef?

    3) Whats a win?
    Example: Lucic given away to create $6m in cap space and move a potential longer term concern?

    Youve stated the “out of the question” example.

    What is an example of “palatable” and what is an example of a “win” for you?

    To Vancouver:

    Milan Lucic

    To Ottawa:

    Loui Eriksson

    To Edmonton:

    Bobby Ryan ($1.25M retained)
    2019 2nd round pick (VAN)

    – Ottawa saves $1.25M in actual salary x 4 years, gets a similar player (boxcars) with a more buyout-friendly contract ($4,000,000 over 8 years vs $14,666,664 over 8 years actualy cost)
    – Vancouver gets the best player in the deal (even with his slump this year Lucic still outscored the others) for the same cap hit (similar dollars: 7/6/4/5/4 for Lucic vs 7/5/4/4 for Eriksson)
    – Edmonton gets a pick and a no-extra-cost bet on a skill winger, who is under contract for 1 fewer years than Lucic (4 more vs 5 more)
    – All three players could benefit from a change of scenery.

  83. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: I’ve mentioned his vision/range as being an issue in the past, so would agree with Bob. He doesn’t pick up the pick even when it is nearby.

    Picks are illegal!

  84. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Picks are illegal!

    Don’t tell Edmonton’s scouting department (nor Chiarelli)…

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have zero doubt that Lucic on the team would have changed absolutely nothing with respect to Brandon Manning’s play on McDavid, nothing.

    The retribution has to be served up cold, Messier style, and that is what deters, knowing its coming.

    Nowadays that is better done by a role player like Kassian. Older sane wealthy guys probably don’t want that after they establish their pugilistic rep.

    McLellan also seems against it. I am too but the league doesn’t always protect the talent. So, if players get a bit ‘hacky’ on the talent having a hinge loose type with elephant memory might help.

    Maroon was actually more like that than Lucic.

  86. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Professor Q: Don’t tell Edmonton’s scouting department (nor Chiarelli)…

    Sadly they got the memo and misunderstood.

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Perhaps Lucic has vision issues, but that is such an easy fix why would he jeopardize his legacy over something that simple?

    I thought it looked like he couldn’t feel the puck or react to it. Muscle bound maybe, but a loss of coordination. Even if you can’t see well if the puck is on your stick how do you miss a guy by ten feet?

    I have terrible uncorrected eyesight and I can still see shapes 20-30 feet off to at least get it in their skates.

  88. Munny says:

    Marincin gets creamed–twice–and the Stars score after being outshot 3001-4.

  89. Munny says:

    Visually better,

    Harpers Hair,

    dustrock,

    Just bizarre. The theme to The Twilight Zone is playing in my head. Hope the police find whoever is ultimately responsible so the Karlssons can find some peace.

  90. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: It doesn’t exist, at least in this dimension.

    I hope not… because if there’s Math that says trade a guy who’s 30 and has scored 84 points over the past two seasons for a guy who is 33 and has scored 47 points over the past two seasons AND WE ADD the 10th overall…

    …then something has drastically changed in the universe since I went to bed. Sheer madness.

    VAN would have to be the team adding the pick.

  91. digger50 says:

    I remember as the Oil were stepping up to pick at #22, I was yelling “take that Eeli guy!” Not that I knew much about him.
    He’s been breaking records over in the KHL this past season.

    Not dissin the Yammer, just finished a read on Tolvanen, he had a heck of a season.

  92. Munny says:

    Stars now up 3-0 on 13 total shots.

  93. Munny says:

    Marlies finally get a goal.

  94. Munny says:

    Don’t matter because the Stars get a shortie.

  95. Munny says:

    It’s kind of funny reading all the Sens fans calling for Hoffman to be traded. Do they not realize that at this moment in time Hoffman is completely untradeable?

    If there is ANY truth to the allegations made by the Karlssons, MH might never play NHL hockey again.

  96. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    Visually better,

    Harpers Hair,

    dustrock,

    Just bizarre.The theme to The Twilight Zone is playing in my head.Hope the police find whoever is ultimately responsible so the Karlssons can find some peace.

    Yes. Does the cat-fight* also lower the trade value of the two players? A distraction like this is the last thing you want on your team.

    * not judging either party and the attacks on the Karlsson’s are putrid. But, obviously there’s bad blood between the two women that goes far beyond fake social media accounts. I’m sure it happens elsewhere but this is serious enough that Eric is willing to go to court against someone he sees and works with every day – that’s unusual in any circle.

    Sad. Also, baggage.

  97. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: I hope not… because if there’s Math that says trade a guy who’s 30 and has scored 84 points over the past two seasons for a guy who is 33 and has scored 47 points over the past two seasons AND WE ADD the 10th overall…

    …then something has drastically changed in the universe since I went to bed.Sheer madness.

    VAN would have to be the team adding the pick.

    I posted this last week:

    To Vancouver:
    Milan Lucic
    To Ottawa:
    Loui Eriksson
    To Edmonton:
    Bobby Ryan ($1.25M retained)
    2019 2nd round pick (VAN)
    – Ottawa saves $1.25M in actual salary x 4 years, gets a similar player (boxcars) with a more buyout-friendly contract ($4,000,000 over 8 years vs $14,666,664 over 8 years actualy cost)
    – Vancouver gets the best player in the deal (even with his slump this year Lucic still outscored the others) for the same cap hit (similar dollars: 7/6/4/5/4 for Lucic vs 7/5/4/4 for Eriksson)
    – Edmonton gets a pick and a no-extra-cost bet on a skill winger, who is under contract for 1 fewer years than Lucic (4 more vs 5 more)
    – All three players could benefit from a change of scenery.

  98. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    It’s kind of funny reading all the Sens fans calling for Hoffman to be traded.Do they not realizethat at this moment in time Hoffman is completely untradeable?

    If there is ANY truth to the allegations made by the Karlssons, MH might never play NHL hockey again.

    Ah, I see you answered my question before I asked it. 🙂

    But I think this also affects Karlsson’s trade value, as backward as that may seem. Maybe I’m reading something that isn’t there.

  99. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM,

    If Sens retain 1.25M on Ryan’s salary, they will be paying Eriksson more than we will be Ryan. All they save in total costs this year is $250k.

    Eriksson at $6M + $1.25M retained vs Ryan at 7.5M.

    That said, three-ways are nearly impossible to pull off and right now Ottawa has bigger things to worry about than trading a guy who can still actually score for one who can’t*, just to save $250k.

    *when either are healthy

  100. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: But I think this also affects Karlsson’s trade value, as backward as that may seem. Maybe I’m reading something that isn’t there.

    Only in that they might be forced to do him a favour, or feel like they should.

    Marlies find a glimmer of life. 4-2.

  101. Munny says:

    Stars ice it. 5-2. Going to game 7 barring a miracle.

  102. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    ArmchairGM,

    If Sens retain 1.25M on Ryan’s salary, they will be paying Eriksson more than we will be Ryan.All they save in total costs this year is $250k.

    Eriksson at $6M + $1.25M retained vs Ryan at 7.5M.

    That said, three-ways are nearly impossible to pull off and right now Ottawa has bigger things to worry about than trading a guy who can still actually score for one who can’t*, just to save $250k.

    *when either are healthy

    Nope, the actual dollars are much greater than $250k per year going forward. I’m out right now so I don’t have the actual numbers… Ottawa is much more concerned with actual dollars than the cap, going forward. Also, the buyout cost is much lower on Ericsson, even with the retention ($9M vs $15M, IIRC).

  103. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM,

    In terms of actual dollars, this year Eriksson is due $7M, and Ryan $7.5… so in actuality this particular year would cost the Sens even more than they owe Ryan straight up, if they retain.

  104. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    ArmchairGM,

    In terms of actual dollars, this year Eriksson is due $7M, and Ryan $7.5… so in actuality this particular year would cost the Sens even more than they owe Ryan straight up, if they retain.

    The remaining years on the contract have to be taken into account thought, they don’t just disappear.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    Stars ice it.5-2. Going to game 7 barring a miracle.

    If history is any indication, Keefe will replace Babcock at some point in the future and take the Leafs to the finals repeatedly – only to be stymied by the McDavid-led Oilers.

  106. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: If history is any indication, Keefe will replace Babcock at some point in the future and take the Leafs to the finals repeatedly – only to be stymied by the McDavid-led Oilers.

    That’s a movie I’d buy tickets to every year.

  107. rickithebear says:

    As I pointed out summer 17.
    Oilers playoffs:
    Draisaitl .462 gpg
    Mcdavid, Letestu .385
    Slepyshev, Kassian, Maroon, Caggulia .231
    Lucic .154

    Draisaitl .769 apg
    Letestu .462
    Maroon .385
    Mcdavid, Lucic, RNH .308
    Desharnais .231

    Not playing luc drai Slepyshev WOWY
    And
    Luc not receiving passes (per lead)
    I wondered eyes? Hands?

  108. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: Ah, but that was my question to you! I’m not certain, and that’s the truth. Lucic and 40 for Phaneuf and a third round pick? I like that better but it makes me grumpy.

    I really dont know either when the scenario is “trading one bad contract for another:” I havent heard any scenarios that appeal to me. Lucic for Phanuef even straight up creates a problem in that it frees up less than $1 million dollars and leaves you down a middle six left winger. So yes, grumpy makes sense to me.

    I have no idea what Lucics market value is or which teams might be in play.

    Montreal for Andrew Shaw? (Shaw a 30 pt guy at $3.9 million for 4 more years is a bad contract) Montreal was interested in Lucic 2 yrs ago and might be a team Lucic would agree to.

    I would consider giving Lucic away for $6m in cap relief a huge win. If necessary I would even add one of our 2019 3rd round picks to acheive this result.

  109. Seismic Source says:

    Those poor Senator fans.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca