These are the days of miracle and wonder

by Lowetide

On the day the Edmonton Oilers signed Milan Lucic, it wasn’t at all clear the move improved the team. In a post called Silent Sorrow in Empty Boats, I wrote:

  • The Edmonton Oilers are a far different team than they were a year ago, but are they better? The team has more balance—and that is a good thing—but suggesting this team is closer to the playoffs is a tricky case to make. I like Milan Lucic and Adam Larsson, but the Oilers lost Taylor Hall and $4 million in cap room to make this happen. What’s more, the team now has (just) one forward who can push the river, and a plethora of well paid complementary (but effective) offensive wingers and pivots. Put another way, the thing that always made the Chicago Blackhawks special—Patrick Kane on one line and Marian Hossa on another—no longer applies (to the Oilers). It is a real concern.

Two years later, we are here. One thing that may be happening—and it benefits the Oilers—is a ‘fame aided’ exit by Lucic that may not require a nuclear sweetener. Music! And probably impossible.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift for Father’s Day and get a free t-shirt! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: In search of the new Pisani (will link)
  • New Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

TODAY’S LUCIC UPDATE

Elliotte Friedman talked about Lucic and his situation on a Vancouver radio station yesterday. There’s an account of his interview here, and more teams to talk about (Vancouver, Dallas, Florida) based on the Friedman blue sky. What’s coming back? In yesterday’s comments section I was asked about acceptable deals, so have cobbled together a few ideas. My opinion only, I don’t expect any of these to get done as written.

  • Dallas Stars: Jason Spezza ($7.5M times one) for Milan Lucic ($6M times five) with $2M a year retained. Another contract that can’t be bought out, but it is for only one year. I’m not a fan of retaining money, but this gives Edmonton four summers of $4 million in extra cap. while adding $3.5M to the cap for the coming  season. Blech.
  • Florida Panthers: Jamie McGinn ($3.33M) for Milan Lucic ($6 million times five) and maybe the Oilers retain $2 million a year for the remainder of the contract.
  • Los Angeles Kings: Dion Phaneuf ($5.25M times three) and No. 20 for Milan Lucic ($6M times five) and No. 12. Phaneuf’s deal is also impossible to buy out but the contract has just three years remaining.
  • NY Rangers: Marc Staal ($5.7M times three) for Milan Lucic ($6 million times five) gives the Oilers freedom two years early. Staal is a limited player for this era.
  • Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson ($6M times four) for Milan Lucic ($6 million times five) gives the Oilers a player with more utility (he can play in all three disciplines) and offensive ability (despite last year’s poor totals). He is older, Edmonton gets out from under a year earlier.

I’m not thrilled with any of these, but would find the Florida and Vancouver deals acceptable. If Peter Chiarelli can do better, using the Lucic Fame Modulator, credit will be due. I still think it’s Everest to make a trade that doesn’t cost an extra asset.

CHIARELLI’S NEEDS LIST

  • A scoring winger capable of sliding up and down the depth chart as required (Rattie insurance and a finisher for Leon’s line).
  • A two-way winger who can provide veteran presence on the third line.
  • A second-pairing defender (patience may require this solution arrives later).
  • A backup goalie (Mikko Noskinen).

OILERS ASSETS LIST

  1. Milan Lucic.  Moves up to No. 1 from ninth in a quick hurry.
  2. Zack Kassian. He’s likely in a few conversations.
  3. Oscar Klefbom. The OEL signing has him moving down my list (from No. 1).
  4. No. 10 overall. There will be a good player there, EDM is still building.
  5. Jesse Puljujarvi. He’s vulnerable, suspect they’ll regret dealing the big man.
  6. Ryan Strome. Oilers may want to reset that third line.
  7. Andrej Sekera. Injury unknown likely keeps him here.
  8. Kris Russell. NMC probably keeps him here.

The Kris Russell buyout is the most palatable (here, via CapFriendly) but it is doubtful Edmonton uses the option this summer. It will be interesting to see who gets bought out, hopefully it will increase the free-agent pool greatly.

FREE AGENCY

If the Oilers can deal Lucic without taking back a big salary, what might they pursue in free agency? I’ve always thought James Neal was the target, maybe JvR? I keep looking for any signing news on Alexander Barabanov, who was mentioned by Elliotte Friedman in late May. He’s 23, is a good skater with a quick release and was strong at the World Hockey Championships.

We’re into the good stuff now, McKenzie has his list out Monday and Pronman will have his mock sometime next week. I’ll have a lot of draft coverage on the Lowdown next week, The Athletic this and next week and the usual rambling here.

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Jaxon

JimmyV1965: I’m not trying to be an arse here, but I’m trying to wrap my head around your statement that Kravtsov’s regular season per minute 5-on-5 Primary Pts adjusted for age and league is the best in the draft.

Here’s what we have for him.

7 in 35 khl
7 in 9 VHL
3 in 1 MHL

I’m a bit concerned that these numbers are skewed.The numbers don’t look good to me at all. What happens if he only got 6 in 35 in the KHL or 5. And how much weight is placed on the one game in the MHL, which I assume would be comparable to something like AJHL.

Also, I was only counting his KHL numbers.

who

Lowetide: Seabrook also has five years left and at $6.875m cap hit. He’s no longer able to play the tough minutes successfully and the old timey phrase “he’s lost a step” is correct but not strong enough.

The way I read cap friendly Seabrook has 1 more year of term than Lucic. If the term is equal I’d be very tempted to make the trade cause I feel Seabrook has more value at 6.8 million than Lucic does at 6.

Yeti

Hot Eire: What have you got against blind men making tea?

Look, Woodguy’s OnIce Tea Making percentages are way down, even when you compensate for quality of competition and his phone playing the offside. Given the opportunities he’s had, his Brew per 60 is flat out weak. Put bluntly: he’s lost a step at an age where he’s unlikely to recover. And that’s before we get into all the off-ice character issues. The rumours about his fondness for fine scotch wrecking his tastebuds are simply too persistent to be ignored…

Jaxon

Munny: The odds of the Avs trading their first pairing Dman for Lucic are somewhere between impossible and never.

Good point, but I thought they were shopping him at one point. Maybe I’m mixing him up with Jack.

Jaxon

JimmyV1965: Thanks. I appreciate the detailed response.

I should note, that forwards and D from North American League are completely my own, sourced from prospect-stats.com, whereas players from other leagues are sourced from Jeremy Davis’ Spring Rankings SEAL list. If he has adjusted the Estimated Primary Points/ 60 beforehand then we may be double adjusting some things, which would throw things off.

Jaxon

Wilde:
Also Jaxon if you read this, I’ve asked you this before, but where do you get your KHL TOI data?

The KHL site has Kravstov’s regular season TOI/gp at 9:19 last season, and 5:19 the season before that.

I thought I answered you. Maybe it was lost in a long winded response. I got my data from Jeremy Davis’ table. Google “Jeremy Davis SEAL Spring rankings NHL draft” and it should come up. He has Kravtsov at ETOI 5.2 (I believe that is 5-on-5), but also has his Estimated 5-on-5 Primary Pts / 60 at 1.97, which is what I used for my stat. Now if he is adjusting that before hand then maybe I’m doubling adjustment and screwing the whole thing up. Even ignoring my stat of Kravtsov. His straight playoff NHLe is 45 pts, which is damn impressive and reinforces that my stat may be on to something. Look, I’m obviously not a statistician, I just came up with a formula made from other people’s formulas, which tried to take into account all the factors I could reasonably account for (age, era, league, position, and TOI) and applied them to the”God’s flashlight” that is 5-on-5 Primary Pts. Is it super accurate? Probably not, but it does give us an equalizer way to measure Crosby, McDavid, and Svechnikov against each other. Or to compare Nurse to K’Andre Miller, or to discover unheralded players like Miller, Gruden, Kravtsov, and Noel. And then look into them further to check for skating and defensive responsibility.

Hot Eire

Yeti: Whatever you do, don’t drink that tea.

What have you got against blind men making tea?

Jaxon

ArmchairGM: Shhhh! I’m hoping we can grab him at 71.

If be tempted to go for it at #40. I’ve seen him ranked in the 50-55 range a few times, so I don’t think he lasts to #71. I just finished watching his 17-18 highlight reel and now I even like him more. He makes things happen out there. He’s pretty sneaky and swift.

OriginalPouzar

Dreger is floating Lucic and Jesse for Faulk or Hanifin.

These are silly as Faulk and Hanifin have different values.

I would NOT do that for Faulk, not way.

That is interesting for Hanifin, however, it still causes issues with the leftorium, we’d have Klef, Nurse, Hanifin, Russell, Sekera, all as left shot D.

OriginalPouzar

One massive difference between the Lucic and Erickson’s contracts is Lucic’s NMC.

When he waives it for a trade, per the CBA, the acquiring team has the option to allow the clause to run with the contract or for it to fall away. I’ve got to assume that Lucic will, as a condition of waiving the clause for the initial trade, require the acquiring team to keep the clause which means the acquiring team would have to protect Lucic in the expansion draft.

Lucic’s requirement for the team to keep the clause is just an assumption but it makes sense to me.

Yes, Lucic could waive again for the expansion draft but there is no guarantee of that.

Even if Lucic does agree to waive for the expansion draft, there is a good/decent/great chance that SEA won’t choose him. Him waiving would at least allow the team to not be forced to protect him, however it likely does not dispose of the contract//cap hit.

Tesla's Hair

I look at Vegas and they picked up players other teams usually didn’t really really want to keep.

Buy High and Sell Low
I look at Oilers and often see us continuously selling players when they are at the low point (Yakupov), getting run out of town (like Eberle after his poor playoff run) and we have so little bargaining power and get very little for them.

I know it is human when a player is doing well we want to keep them (Lucic play in 1st half of season) and then when they struggle we want to offload them.

If we are going for a Stanley Cup team. Is there a way we could take out human emotion and sell when they are at the peak of production or just starting to decline. Sell high and buy low.

Which players are at a peak and will get the biggest amount? Is there any team that is really good at this or will the the GM and management be run out of town for trading with this algorithm?

who

Primetime: LOL…best trade response ever.

While I agree, the issue is what does Chia think.Friedman says that the Oilers seem very confident that they can trade Lucic without retaining or taking back a bad contract.While that sounds good to us, what we don’t know is what does Chia consider a “bad contract”?Remember there were rumours of Seabrook willing to sign here, the year before he hit UFA.Move one veteran “winner” out for another in a position of need (RHD).

Of course I wouldn’t do it…but I can picture “Homer” Chiarelli drooling now…”MMMMmmm….Fuuguuuu…..”

Someone needs to educate me here. I haven’t seen a lot of Chicago lately but I’ve always liked Seabrook. I understand that he has started to slide.
But at 33 is he still not considerably better at his position than Lucic is at left wing? Not saying I’d do it but is his contract worse than the Lucic contract? I don’t think so.

Yeti

Hot Eire: So…..if I’m reading the tea leaves right, you are against taking Seabrook for Lucic??

Whatever you do, don’t drink that tea.

Woodguy v2.0

Woogie63:
Woodguy v2.0,

When we bet on training intensity we won more often, at the very top of the athlete world, not much separates 2nd from 15th.

I’d agree with that.

Doesn’t really apply to the Lucic situation though, which was the topic.

ArmchairGM

Jaxon:
I have Gruden and Noel as the most underrated forwards (along with Kravtsov). but Gruden is criminally underrated. I also can’t find any negatives in his scouting reports either, except maybe size and I think he’s 5’11.75″, which isn’t exactly small. Great work ethic, decent skating, responsible 2-way play. He has good bloodlines, too (if you put any stock in that), his dad, John Sr., (92 NHL GP with Bruins, Sens and Caps) even played for Chiarelli in his last year in Ottawa and just finished coaching the Hamilton Bulldogs in the Memorial Cup. He outscored Farabee at even strength and played against tougher competition as far as I can tell. I cannot figure that one out, except that he isn’t a flashy player. Weird.

The highest I’ve seen anyone rank Gruden is #50! Crazy! At least I’ve seen Noel ranked as high as #14.

Shhhh! I’m hoping we can grab him at 71.

ArmchairGM

Munny: Sure. If there’s a reasonable deal. It also behooves Chia not to make things worse by trading Looch for the likes of, say, Eriksson.

Eriksson is a much, much cheaper buyout.

Hot Eire

Wilde: He also has a V12 hockey brain that really shines in terms of neutral zone defense.

Love this little run-down on two faves of mine from this draft.

ADAM BOQVIST VS QUINN HUGHES

I have Hughes and Boqvist as one drop after Dahlin and the other defensemen another drop after them.

Boqvist just ticks so many boxes for the Oilers. The number of years he will take to be NHL ready (I would say 1 to 3) and the concussions to date are my flags but I would have no hesitation in sprinting to the podium if he was available at 10.

Hot Eire

stevezie:
Hot Eire,

Sure but why would Pittsburgh? I know he gets paid a lot and is often hurt, but he is right-handed, coming off a 50 point season and was a point a game (!) in the playoffs.

All true but Rutherford seems to like truculence (see Reeves, Ryan) and after the Washington series (where Letang was ordinary + they could have done with a nuclear deterrent [of which I believe Lucic to be alpha male #1]) + the curious non-playing of Sprong, I still believe there’s a trade there. I would even throw in Matt Benning (who I like) to balance out the trade.

Wilde

Also Jaxon if you read this, I’ve asked you this before, but where do you get your KHL TOI data?

The KHL site has Kravstov’s regular season TOI/gp at 9:19 last season, and 5:19 the season before that.

Wilde

stevezie:
Hot Eire,

Sure but why would Pittsburgh? I know he gets paid a lot and is often hurt, but he is right-handed, coming off a 50 point season and was a point a game (!) in the playoffs.

That would be one of the worst trades of all time for Pitt, but to answer the question of why Letang and Sprong are on the market, Sullivan dislikes Sprong and Letang utterly shit the bed against WSH, he was 2-13 in 5v5 GF-GA in that series the last time I checked.

Wilde

Hot Eire: Where does this notion that Boqvist does not play any defence come from??…. he currently gets out-muscled in front of his net and needs to get stronger and improve his defence, yes, but I’ve read that he is commited to the defensive side, albeit not currently his strength.

He also has a V12 hockey brain that really shines in terms of neutral zone defense.

So, prospect-stats has come out with an expected goals model, and of course what goes with that is expected shooting percentage.

http://prospect-stats.com/blog/xG

For those that don’t want to go through and read the methodology, I’ll give you the (very simple) gist of what goes into the model:

– shot location and distance from the net

– the angle at which the shooter is shooting, which gives you an idea of how much net he’s

– the time since the last shot on goal by the same team (to pick up rebounds and similar bang-bang plays)

– if the last shot came from the opposing team: the time since that shot was( this helps pick up shots that come off the rush)

– the league’s average shooting/save percentage

– the shooter’s position and handedness(a left shot on the right side of the ice has a higher chance of going in, and vice versa)

As we’ve seen on the Oilers, hockey players can often go /entire seasons/ getting absurdly lucky or unlucky, and since you’re often drafting off of single season’s results, you can end up drafting a 30+ OHL goalscorer that doesn’t actually have strong finishing talent.

Woodguy’s talked about players consistently outperforming their shot, chance, and expected goals metrics though. These players are often the ones with elite finishing or playmaking ability. But even those players don’t run that far ahead of their xG.

Luckily, all but one of the OHL forwards that have the biggest difference between their expected shooting percentage and their actual shooting percentage(the guys who got lucky) are guys I’m not interested in.

The one that is, is Pavel Gogolev.

He scored 30 goals, most of then 5v5, in a 2nd line role on a shitty Peterborough team, in his 2nd OHL season and his first season with above 10 minutes per game of ice-time.

This naturally interests me as a guy late on my board. You don’t usually get real goalscoring talent, especially at 6’1″ late in the draft. He’s Russian yeah, but he’s been in NA awhile. He’s under the radar.

But he scored almost double the goals he was ‘supposed’ to.

18% shooting percentage, 10% expected shooting percentage.

Thing is, he’s got by far the highest time on ice of the ‘lucky’ category guys with almost 1100 minutes.

First round, September birthday(Pavel’s February) prospect Ryan Mcleod is next closest with 940.

Something’s up with this guy. I’d take him, he’s peculiar. He’s gotta be beating goalies clean, at least to a degree.

He’s the 79th ranked NA skater by NHL Central Scouting, if he’s still there in the 5th/6th and most of my board’s gone I’d take him.

I prefer his teammate, Semyon Der-Arguchinstev, but still… Interesting prospect. A Maksimov type bet.

stevezie

Hot Eire,

Sure but why would Pittsburgh? I know he gets paid a lot and is often hurt, but he is right-handed, coming off a 50 point season and was a point a game (!) in the playoffs.

Hot Eire

Woodguy v2.0: Lucic’s contract is poison.

Seabrook’s deal is Fugu chopped up by a blind man and marinated in a vat of arsenic and death cap mushrooms.

So…..if I’m reading the tea leaves right, you are against taking Seabrook for Lucic??

Btw, I would do the deal with Pitt for Letang and Sprong

Hot Eire

Rondo:
Jaxon,

Funny, your’re criticizing Boqvist on defense which might be warranted butMerkley doesn’t play any.

Where does this notion that Boqvist does not play any defence come from??…. he currently gets out-muscled in front of his net and needs to get stronger and improve his defence, yes, but I’ve read that he is commited to the defensive side, albeit not currently his strength.

GMB3

Woogie63: I don’t understand this.The Oilers and other NHL teams have costs (contracts) and Revenue modeled for 3 and 5 years.The Oilers have Lucic contract fit within their medium to long term business plan.

This contract is just two years old, I would be very surprised if the Lucic contract suddenly became a problem.

JimmyV1965: Concussion: Boqvist

Draisaitl had a concussion

Relevance: None

JimmyV1965

Jaxon: Not at all… You’re right, the numbers are a bit skewed. Kravtsov is a small sample size issue for sure (not many minutes in not many games).
he scored 1.97 Primary Pts per minute in the KHL. He was only getting about 5.2 ETOI.

MHL (0.310) is somewhere between OHL (0.323) and WHL (0.302), KHL (0.804) is the closest league to the NHL in terms of difficulty to score.

I don’t know if this is readable but I’ll give his calculation:
=Primary Points (1.97)/60*14.4166666666667(Median TOI for Top 6 Fwd)*82GP*(1-(AGE (17.73yrs)-17.5)*0.1672)*1.525(My Inflation Constant)*KHL to NHL rate of 0.804*1.0 ERA ADJUSTMENT (Not applicable) = 45.76

Sidney Crosby 48.18
Vitali Kravtsov 45.76 (sample size alert (just 182 minutes) and TOI against 4th liners alert! KHL 4th liners though, but his superb playoffs make this number seem closer than I initially thought. EDIT: His NHLe from his playoffs is 45 pts (11 pts in 16 GP).

Connor McDavid 44.02
Andrei Svechnikov 38.80
Joel Farabee 32.23
Rasmus Dahlin 32.04
K’Andre Miller 31.70
Adam Mascherin 29.04 (1st draft season)
Oliver Wahlstrom 28.79
Ryan Strome 28.11
Johnny Gruden 27.62
Leon Drasiatl 25.93
Filip Zadina 23.90
Kailer Yamamoto 23.85
Serron Noel 23.70
Quinn Hughes 23.60
Ty Rattie 21.55
Jesperi Kotkaniemi 21.19
Tyler Benson 20.55
Jacob Ragnarsson 20.20
Adam Boqvist 19.87
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 18.70
Zach Kassian 17.64
Kirill Maksimov 17.41
Darnell Nurse 16.94
Ryan Merkley 16.29
Evan Bouchard 15.64
Ty Smith 15.43
Seth Jones 14.56
Ty Emberson 14.48
Aaron Ekblad 13.45
Milan Lucic 13.37
Calen Addison 12.32
Noah Dobson 11.52

Thanks. I appreciate the detailed response.

JimmyV1965

VOR: Fair question but the correct answer is zero. At this moment in time Merkley’s behaviour predicts nothing about his behaviour at 25.

I can attest to this personally. I was such a better person at 25 than I was at 17. But there was some circumstance involved in this too. There’s just so much at stake here, it honestly gives me pause, even though I know how much I changed.

VOR

JimmyV1965:
So how much stock do we put into a teenager’s attitude? I don’t think Mark Edwards has any issue with the talent and skill of Merkley. His issue is with character. Edwards has seen him up close and personal and knows his Midget coach very well. His concerns are not that he can’t play defence, it’s that he has zero interest in playing defence and gives up on the play all the time. He also doesn’t like the way he acts in the ice, throwing up his hands etc. These are red flags for me, but he’s a frickin kid. His attitude could swing 180 in one summer. Still…

Fair question but the correct answer is zero. At this moment in time Merkley’s behaviour predicts nothing about his behaviour at 25.

Jaxon

JimmyV1965: I’m not trying to be an arse here, but I’m trying to wrap my head around your statement that Kravtsov’s regular season per minute 5-on-5 Primary Pts adjusted for age and league is the best in the draft.

Here’s what we have for him.

7 in 35 khl
7 in 9 VHL
3 in 1 MHL

I’m a bit concerned that these numbers are skewed.The numbers don’t look good to me at all. What happens if he only got 6 in 35 in the KHL or 5. And how much weight is placed on the one game in the MHL, which I assume would be comparable to something like AJHL.

Not at all… You’re right, the numbers are a bit skewed. Kravtsov is a small sample size issue for sure (not many minutes in not many games).
he scored 1.97 Primary Pts per minute in the KHL. He was only getting about 5.2 ETOI.

MHL (0.310) is somewhere between OHL (0.323) and WHL (0.302), KHL (0.804) is the closest league to the NHL in terms of difficulty to score.

I don’t know if this is readable but I’ll give his calculation:
=Primary Points (1.97)/60*14.4166666666667(Median TOI for Top 6 Fwd)*82GP*(1-(AGE (17.73yrs)-17.5)*0.1672)*1.525(My Inflation Constant)*KHL to NHL rate of 0.804*1.0 ERA ADJUSTMENT (Not applicable) = 45.76

Sidney Crosby 48.18
Vitali Kravtsov 45.76 (sample size alert (just 182 minutes) and TOI against 4th liners alert! KHL 4th liners though, but his superb playoffs make this number seem closer than I initially thought. EDIT: His NHLe from his playoffs is 45 pts (11 pts in 16 GP).

Connor McDavid 44.02
Andrei Svechnikov 38.80
Joel Farabee 32.23
Rasmus Dahlin 32.04
K’Andre Miller 31.70
Adam Mascherin 29.04 (1st draft season)
Oliver Wahlstrom 28.79
Ryan Strome 28.11
Johnny Gruden 27.62
Leon Drasiatl 25.93
Filip Zadina 23.90
Kailer Yamamoto 23.85
Serron Noel 23.70
Quinn Hughes 23.60
Ty Rattie 21.55
Jesperi Kotkaniemi 21.19
Tyler Benson 20.55
Jacob Ragnarsson 20.20
Adam Boqvist 19.87
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 18.70
Zach Kassian 17.64
Kirill Maksimov 17.41
Darnell Nurse 16.94
Ryan Merkley 16.29
Evan Bouchard 15.64
Ty Smith 15.43
Seth Jones 14.56
Ty Emberson 14.48
Aaron Ekblad 13.45
Milan Lucic 13.37
Calen Addison 12.32
Noah Dobson 11.52

JimmyV1965

So how much stock do we put into a teenager’s attitude? I don’t think Mark Edwards has any issue with the talent and skill of Merkley. His issue is with character. Edwards has seen him up close and personal and knows his Midget coach very well. His concerns are not that he can’t play defence, it’s that he has zero interest in playing defence and gives up on the play all the time. He also doesn’t like the way he acts in the ice, throwing up his hands etc. These are red flags for me, but he’s a frickin kid. His attitude could swing 180 in one summer. Still…

Primetime

OriginalPouzar: Those two deals aren’t even in the same ball-park – the second deal is much much more palatable – that’s two very good assets coming back.Yes, Letang’s cap hit is high but he’s an elite offensive d-man and Sprong is a great NHL ready prospect.

Oh, and Russell goes over Sekera, 10 times out of 10 – Sekera is better (even at 80%), Sekera’s NMC goes away prior to the expansion draft.

Letang carries a huge injury risk and carries a bigger cap hit…as such, a better sweetner comes from Pittsburgh (especially if its true that the coach doesn’t want to play Sprong)

And of course you would like to get rid of Russell before Sekera, but given level of play and stated desire to stay in one geographical area, I guarantee it’s easier to move Sekera, regardless if you WANT to get rid of Russell.

Primetime

Woodguy v2.0: Lucic’s contract is poison.

Seabrook’s deal is Fugu chopped up by a blind man and marinated in a vat of arsenic and death cap mushrooms.

LOL…best trade response ever.

While I agree, the issue is what does Chia think. Friedman says that the Oilers seem very confident that they can trade Lucic without retaining or taking back a bad contract. While that sounds good to us, what we don’t know is what does Chia consider a “bad contract”? Remember there were rumours of Seabrook willing to sign here, the year before he hit UFA. Move one veteran “winner” out for another in a position of need (RHD).

Of course I wouldn’t do it…but I can picture “Homer” Chiarelli drooling now…”MMMMmmm….Fuuguuuu…..”

JimmyV1965

Woodguy v2.0: Lucic’s contract is poison.

Seabrook’s deal is Fugu chopped up by a blind man and marinated in a vat of arsenic and death cap mushrooms.

I spit coffee across my my entire desk when I read this. Thanks. Had some semi-important papers on there too. It was the blind man that got me.

JimmyV1965

Jaxon: Vitali Kravtsov – he scored at quite the pace/minute in the KHL. His regular season per minute 5-on-5 Primary Pts adjusted for age and league is the best in the draft,

I’m not trying to be an arse here, but I’m trying to wrap my head around your statement that Kravtsov’s regular season per minute 5-on-5 Primary Pts adjusted for age and league is the best in the draft.

Here’s what we have for him.

7 in 35 khl
7 in 9 VHL
3 in 1 MHL

I’m a bit concerned that these numbers are skewed. The numbers don’t look good to me at all. What happens if he only got 6 in 35 in the KHL or 5. And how much weight is placed on the one game in the MHL, which I assume would be comparable to something like AJHL.

Woogie63

Woodguy v2.0,

When we bet on training intensity we won more often, at the very top of the athlete world, not much separates 2nd from 15th.

VOR

Jaxon: WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON I DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY GRUDEN ISN’T RANKED WAY HIGHER! (Sorry, not yelling, just forgot my caps was on, but now I’ll leave it as it is befitting my dismay, haha)

I actually posted it for you. I thought it reinforced your argument.

Though it also helps justify Ty Smith as a top five pick.

Jaxon

VOR:
Very interesting article and table

https://dobberprospects.com/analytics-and-the-draft/

WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON I DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY GRUDEN ISN’T RANKED WAY HIGHER! (Sorry, not yelling, just forgot my caps was on, but now I’ll leave it as it is befitting my dismay, haha)

Leon McMesstzky

BornInAGretzkyJersey,

K’Andre Miller or Akil Thomas

VOR

Very interesting article and table

https://dobberprospects.com/analytics-and-the-draft/

flea

This is pure speculation but I think the Lucic trade speaks to issues in the dressing room. Maybe not completely dysfunctional (see Ottawa) but not cohesive. I’ve played in bands for years and the emotional commitment and synergy of the group drives performance. It’s not the same, obviously, in sports but there are parallels to attaining the top performance out of that group at that moment in time.

There also appears to be some dysfunction in the Oilers organization, which I think would impact the team. There are tons of people working in and around the team for that organization, and bad structure at the top affects everyone. We’ve all had a job like that.

As a fan, it’s like a broken record with the Oilers. It’s disheartening, and I have to admit, I’m less interested in how this plays out than I maybe would’ve been in the past.

Alpine

Well, they’re taking Kravtsov now lol. Bob picked him in the mock.

Jaxon

leadfarmer: Complete boom or bust prospect.Either you are right and look like a genious or you are wrong and you throw away a draft pick.The talent is there

Absolutely.

admiralmark

Following the same trend as above here’s the Cap hit on buyouts of Phaneuf and Perry.

Phaneuf

2019 $ 2.9
2020 $ 5.4
2021 $ 1.4
2022 $ 1.4

Perry

2019 $ 2.6
2020 $ 6.6
2021 $ 2.0
2022 $ 2.0

Seabrook is absolutely nauseating. It takes 10 Years to complete and looks like this:

2019 $ 3.7
2020 $ 6.7
2021 $ 3.7
2022 $ 6.7
2023 $ 5.2
2024 $ .8
2025 $ .8
2026 $ .8
2027 $ .8
2028 $ .8

Yeeesh!

admiralmark

The comparison in contracts between Lucic and Eriksson is being bandied about enough I decided to see what the buyouts would look like between these 2 players if this was done in 2019. Particularly the Cap hit was my interest. I used Cap Friendly’s Buyout calculator so hopefully I got this right.

To Buyout Lucic 1 year from now it would be an 8 year buyout period.
The resulting Cap Hit each year would look like this appx.

2019- $ 3.7
2020- $ 5.6
2021- $ 4.1
2022- $ 5.6
2023- $ .6
2024- $ .6
2025- $ .6
2026- $ .6

Looking at Eriksson again with a buyout 1 year from now would take
place over a 6 year period instead of the 8 for Lucic. And would look like this:

2019- $5.5
2020- $5.5
2021- $3.5
2022- $ .5
2023- $ .5
2024- $ .5

Strange how the numbers jump around for Lucic in the first few years but it’s easy to see that if that was the route chosen Eriksson would be considerably more palatable by the 3rd year of the buyout.
Personally I’d be more apt to try for a trade even if I had to hang onto him 1 more season. I doubt either of these players gets bought out in the next 2 years that’s for sure.

leadfarmer

Jaxon: And Corey Pronman has Merkley at #10.

Complete boom or bust prospect. Either you are right and look like a genious or you are wrong and you throw away a draft pick. The talent is there

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0: I disagree with this.

Lucic’s deal is with a team to the bitter end and its gonna be awful for the last 4-5 years.You cannot buy it out.Its like herpes or luggage, it never leaves.

Eriksson is at least “buy-out-able” in a couple years.

I think he’s worth more than Eriksson and we’ll probably find out soon.

disagree. In one year Lucic at 50% retained costs 2 million dollars real money a year for the rest of his contract. You can trade that to teams that cap floor is a more useful number than cap ceiling. Or if you trade him to through a third team at lets say 25% retained. That trades 1 million dollar real money but a 1.5 mil cap hit

Woodguy v2.0

Woogie63: I never blamed Nuge for playing 1LW, if Nuge is off McDavid’s line by Christmas does that make him a failure?
Was Lucic hired to be the 1LW for ever,?If he is 2LW next year and helps Draistail is that awful?

Your 2-7 forwards should expect to play different spots in the batting order?

Over the last two years
Lucic
164games
33 goals
51 Assists
84 points
130 PIMs

Hopkins
144 games
42 goals
49 assists
91 points
49 PIM

Over the last 2 years: Primary Points/60

16/17
Lucic with McDavid 1.19
RNH w/ McDavid N/A (6 minutes together)

Lucic w/o McDavid 0.87
RNH w/o McDavid 1.17

17/18
Lucic with McDavid 0.72
RNH w/ McDavid 3.19

Lucic w/o McDavid 0.78
RNH w/o McDavid 1.02

Its not really close.

Its also interesting to note that when RNH wasn’t with McDavid he was mostly with Lucic.

Harpers Hair

Good grief. Who the Oilers pick at 10 is out of their control. Every player outside the top 3 has warts. Hope and a prayer.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Just to follow up, Gene, Jack and Bob’s picks were released.

https://youtu.be/fvxlDHrf_U4

1. Dahlin
2. Svechnikov
3. Dobson
4. Hughes
5. Tkachuck
6. Zadina
7. Whalstrom
8. Kotkaniemi
9. Bouchard

10:
Gene – Boqvist
Jack – Hayton
Bob – Kravtsov

40:
Gene – Merkley
Jack – Rodrigue
Bob – Bernard-Docker