Mr. Mudd and Mr. Gold

Every morning sunrise to reach your eyes is another gamble won. If you feel like lost, you’ll end up found, so amigo, lay them raises down. Matt Cane’s free-agent AAV model had Drake Caggiula making $1.3M times two, the young winger landed at $1.5 per year for the next two seasons. Not a huge difference but the Oilers always pay full price plus a little. At the end of the day, with the roster final, there’s going to be a $4M player missing. Death by papercut indeed.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift for Father’s Day and get a free t-shirt! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
  • Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

CAGGIULA’S PROGRESS

Cagggiula has been remarkably consistent but it’s unclear that he’s going to have a long career. There’s nothing here that suggests Caggiula is going to emerge as 2.00 points-per-60 player at 5-on-5 and honestly he’s an older player now (he turns 24 in a week) for a “young NHL player”. Via NaturalStatTrick, here are the 5-on-5 offensive numbers for Caggiula with difference centers this past season.

  • Caggiula with McDavid 2017-18: 2.05 (3-2-5 in 146:16 minutes)
  • Caggiula with RNH 2017-18: 1.25 (1-1-2 in 96:22 minutes)
  • Caggiula with Strome 2017-18: 0.87 (1-2-3 in 206:49 minutes)
  • Caggiula with Draisaitl 2017-18: 0.66 (2-0-2 in 183:37 minutes)
  • Caggiula with Letestu 2017-18: 0.00 (0-0-0 in 89:52 minutes)

He is not strong in possession, the only center he flourished with is the guy who hammers the league every game. The Strome line is his most likely destination and that’s not a strong number. Caggiula got a good contract, good for him and I hope he scores 20. The real problem is the Oilers re-signed Caggiula instead of finding the next Andreas Johnsson, who has a much better chance to move the needle in the NHL. Everyone makes bets that don’t thrive. Very few general managers double down.

PROJECTED ROSTER AT THIS TIME (WITH CAP)

This includes Benoit Pouliot’s buyout number and I am using Matt Cane’s numbers here. The signing of Caggiula is about $200,000 more than the estimate, Edmonton is going to have to make a trade in order to add anyone significant during the offseason. I would bridge Nurse. I placed Yamamoto here, maybe the team waits until July 10 and signs the best available lagging veteran or pursues the next Ty Rattie. My bet? We’re about to see at least one trade, probably two.

Pierre Lebrun sheds more light on the Milan Lucic situation here, it looks like this will be a hockey trade or no trade at all. Applause. Adding a sweetener to a Lucic deal is noxious in the highest.

Fascinating Bobcast this week, a lot on the draft. If anything, the top 10 is more fluid now than it was before the combine, possibly good news for the Oilers. Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton are apparently moving up with Filip Zadina and others falling. Music! Heather Marginet posted some interesting thoughts from the podcast, looks like the first nine names off the board are anyone’s guess.

TYLER BENSON

I mention this every so often and always get the same feedback. Tyler Benson, as things stand currently, has an excellent chance of getting into NHL games this winter. Here’s the latest 50-man, with Benson’s current slot on the depth chart.

Benson is an injury or a slump away from recall, with only a few other options (Joe Gambardella, Cooper Marody, Patrick Russell) standing in the way. There will be more names added to this group, but Benson (and Kailer Yamamoto) don’t have a strong group to overcome. The pipeline needs strong candidates on the wings. Schnell.

OILERS FA LIST

  • G Nick Ellis RFA. Oilers have a full boat, but could deal Montoya and sign Ellis.
  • G Laurent Brossoit UFA. It’s a good bet he’s going to make like Lionel Richie and sail on down the line.
  • LD Darnell Nurse RFA. A bridge deal likely part of the conversation.
  • RD Matt Benning RFA. A shorter term seems likely, Benning has settled in as a solid defender.
  • LD Yohann Auvitu UFA. Reportedly heading back to Europe, there’s an NHL player here.
  • RD Mark Fayne UFA. He’s done with the Oilers, we’ll see if he catches on with another team.
  • LD Keegan Lowe UFA. I think he might return on a two-way deal.
  • LD Dillon Simpson UFA. Same spot as Lowe, likely room for only one.
  • LD Joey Laleggia UFA. He’ll sign with an NHL team that sees him as a defenseman. Maybe Vancouver.
  • LD Ben Betker RFA. Likely part of a substantial “Leftorium” haircut this summer.
  • RC Ryan Strome RFA. Several options for this player, including a trade.
  • RC Kyle Platzer RFA. I don’t think he’s shown enough in his entry deal.
  • LC Grayson Downing UFA. Quiet free agent signing.
  • L Mike Cammalleri UFA. I liked his contribution but the Oilers need more speed.
  • L Drake Caggiula RFA. Likely gets a short-term deal.
  • L Braden Christoffer RFA. Unlikely to return.
  • R Anton Slepyshev RFAKHL rumors (and a trade) suggest he’s headed for the Motherland.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen RFA. Also the subject of Russia rumors.
  • R Patrick Russell. RFA. I think there’s a chance he gets another deal.
  • R Brian Ferlin UFA. Barely got on the ice.

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197 Responses to "Mr. Mudd and Mr. Gold"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Personally, anyone that thought that Drake wasn’t going to be re-signed or that he was going to come in at the “league minimum” or otherwise under $1M, was not being reasonable – in my opinion.

    Yes, he has defensive deficiencies, yes he often “makes his teamates worse”, etc., however at the end of the day, he scored 13 goal and goals still matter, alot.

    I had him pegged for $1.25M and $1.5M at the upper end of what I felt would be reasonable so, at the end of the day, I’m fine with this contract.

    With that said, he needs to be used properly which is in a fourth line energy role. At some point he needs to kill penalties but that is not a skill he currently has.

    The issue with Drake, in my opinion, is that the style of play he needs to play to be successful is an crash and bang, tenacious type style and it seems when he plays that way, his body breaks down.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    At some point Chiarelli is going to need to get a clear win (or two or three) with his signings.

    I mean, we came in to the off-season with next to no cap space to improve (after reasonable signings of the 4 RFAs we know were coming back) and since then he has signed an unproven 30 year old back-up to a $2.5M contract and Caggulia to the very upper end of reasonable (but within the range).

    Personally, I had the following thoughts:

    – Caggulia – $1.25M
    – Benning – $1.75M
    – Strome – $3M
    – Nurse – $3.25 on a bridge or $4.5 with long term

    Chiarelli is going to need to get a win on at least one of the last three main RFAs.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    As an aside, the buyout window is now open.

    I don’t imagine the Oilers take advantage of it.

    Small chance that they are able to put something together for a big fish during the 5-day window leading up to free agency and need to buy out Russell to open up the room but I think its highly doubtful.

  4. supernova says:

    Let’s say Adam Mascherin is there at Rd 3 for the Oilers (unlikely)

    Where does he fit on your depth chart ?

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    My goodness how great would it be for Kotkaniemi and Hayton to both get drafted in the top 9?

    Neither of these two were in the original tier of the “top 9” meaning two droppers.

    For crying out loud Adam Boquist is somewhat likely to drop to 10 and he was ranked as high as 4 on many lists just a couple of months ago.

  6. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Have you read this excellent post regarding Ty Smith?

    https://canucksarmy.com/2018/06/14/canucksarmys-2018-nhl-draft-rankings-8-ty-smith/

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am hopeful the Nurse contract gets done in the next week or at least before July 1 – its the most material of the RFA contracts and it would be helpful to know the number.

    With that said, I have a feeling it may take a while to get that contract done – have a feeling its going to be a difficult one.

  8. Rondo says:

    Regarding Oilers first pick. The safe bets would be Ty Smith or Barrett Hayton.

    The higher reward and higher risk would be Boqvist or Kravtsov

  9. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    Let’s say Adam Mascherin is there at Rd 3 for the Oilers (unlikely)

    Where does he fit on your depth chart ?

    I’d put him above Benson. He’s more skilled and should get the push.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Have you read this excellent post regarding Ty Smith?

    https://canucksarmy.com/2018/06/14/canucksarmys-2018-nhl-draft-rankings-8-ty-smith/

    Yes. Canucks Army did a stunning job again this year.

  11. supernova says:

    Lowetide: I’d put him above Benson. He’s more skilled and should get the push.

    Would you take him at pick 40

  12. Psyche says:

    When you come from the socio-economic class that Peter Chiarelli comes from, I guess, budgeting means something else.

  13. Lowetide says:

    supernova: Would you take him at pick 40

    I have him at No. 52 on my list, so he’s in the range. Mascherin is a terrific prospect imo, and is one of several (Durzi) overagers I think they should consider.

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Next season, Oil need 1 of Kailer/Pool/Lucic/Rattie/new guy to get locked in with CmD or Drai

    – That’s Washington (and hockey today): two lines that do heavy lifting, coach up the bottom

    – Should one of those guys be “the next Maroon”, and the D closer to circa 2016 than 2017, and league-average goalie this is a good team next year IMO

    – If 2 of Kailer/Pool/Lucic/Rattie/new guy pot 20+, Talbot 2016 + good back-up: we be really good

    – Good goalies make the bottom-6 good, in terms of goal differential. Vegas had 4 great lines, untill their goalie was not Hasek+ : then they were deemed as “not enough talent to win it all”

  15. dustrock says:

    Lotta the usual twitter talk “can’t believe fans are getting upset over $200,000.00”, well guys, when Chiarelli overpays every frickin player on the team, we do go up hard against the cap, don’t we?

    I’d prefer to cut bait on Caligula and go fishing somewhere else, but I think they still worry about perception – remember the Oilers won a bit of a bidding war to grab Drake, and I think they feel they need to be seen to do good.

    Attracting UFAs here isn’t necessarily an easy thing, even with McDavid.

  16. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’d sure love to know what the Oilers use as metrics. It’s a real headscratcher to me. They seem to value physical play very highly, more than stuff like say being an NHL player that wins the day in a given role.

  17. russ99 says:

    Seems the Caggiula signing was an overpay for speed and goals boosted by being on McDavid’s line, and not necessarily other skills that can be NHL league average.

    We can’t do the same thing with Benning and Strome.

    Who’s the capologist in the management group? Craig MacTavish who caved on Gagner at the hearing and killed his trade value?

  18. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Once again, we dock defensemen for putting up points without good defensive play because they are costing you games and costing you money. Same needs to apply to Caggula. He is costing us games and is getting paid more than the boat anchor he is.
    Sure he may get better. But we are paying him as he is better

  19. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: Yes. Canucks Army did a stunning job again this year.

    If Canucks Army has this kind of an “Analytics Dashboard” for a player, Imagine what the Pro Teams have at their disposal. Amazing.

  20. dustrock says:

    https://theathletic.com/387849/2018/06/14/brown-a-video-breakdown-of-quinn-hughes-and-his-electrifying-toolbox/

    Sorry if this was already posted. Any subscribers want to take a look at why I pray to Gord that Hughes somehow drops to us.

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: I have him at No. 52 on my list, so he’s in the range. Mascherin is a terrific prospect imo, and is one of several (Durzi) overagers I think they should consider.

    That same Canucks Army post does not have Mascherin in their top 100 (unless I missed him). Maybe theres a chance hes there at 71 ? No way Oilers are taking him at 40 IMO

  22. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As an aside, the buyout window is now open.

    I don’t imagine the Oilers take advantage of it.

    Small chance that they are able to put something together for a big fish during the 5-day window leading up to free agency and need to buy out Russell to open up the room but I think its highly doubtful.

    Not happening unless we buy out Sekera due to post-injury decline concerns, and even that has two $2.6M seasons that would be tough to swallow.

    Russell and Lucic can’t be bought out, too onerous down the road.

    People rip on the Pouliot buyout but it’s only $1,333,333 per year, and as we saw, you can’t get a Caggiula for that. LOL

  23. 36 percent body fat says:

    signing scrubs like Lucic, and overpaying on Russell and now caggulia while trading away skill like eberle and letting slepyshev walk

    Can anyone understand what the GM and coaching philosophy is?

    My bet is, “we dont care if you can play hockey or produce results, if you try hard and punch people we are good to go”

    Making cap room to waste it is double taxation. Eberle out (tax 1) caggulia and russell signed to bad contracts and are garbage tax 2.

    Bring back Kruger, and offer Yzerman 20M a year to be GM and MAKE OILERS GREAT AGAIN!

  24. Scungilli Slushy says:

    dustrock:
    Lotta the usual twitter talk “can’t believe fans are getting upset over $200,000.00”, well guys, when Chiarelli overpays every frickin player on the team, we do go up hard against the cap, don’t we?

    I’d prefer to cut bait on Caligula and go fishing somewhere else, but I think they still worry about perception – remember the Oilers won a bit of a bidding war to grab Drake, and I think they feel they need to be seen to do good.

    Attracting UFAs here isn’t necessarily an easy thing, even with McDavid.

    If they can ever get a consistent playoff streak going maybe it will change for the better.

  25. russ99 says:

    36 percent body fat:
    signing scrubs like Lucic, and overpaying on Russell and now caggulia while trading away skill like eberle and letting slepyshev walk

    Can anyone understand what the GM and coaching philosophy is?

    My bet is, “we dont care if you can play hockey or produce results, if you try hard and punch people we are good to go”

    Making cap room to waste it is double taxation.Eberle out (tax 1) caggulia and russell signed to bad contracts and are garbage tax 2.

    Bring back Kruger, and offer Yzerman 20M a year to be GM and MAKE OILERS GREAT AGAIN!

    Let’s be honest. As much as I’m a fan, Slepyshev didn’t put up results.

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    dustrock:
    Lotta the usual twitter talk “can’t believe fans are getting upset over $200,000.00”, well guys, when Chiarelli overpays every frickin player on the team, we do go up hard against the cap, don’t we?

    I’d prefer to cut bait on Caligula and go fishing somewhere else, but I think they still worry about perception – remember the Oilers won a bit of a bidding war to grab Drake, and I think they feel they need to be seen to do good.

    Attracting UFAs here isn’t necessarily an easy thing, even with McDavid.

    Paying him what they have suggests to me that he must have some value in the NHL Marketplace. Otherwise they would have done exactly what you suggested……cut bait and go to the marketplace for a replacement/upgrade.

  27. dustrock says:

    Man, Smith’s GFRel was 18.6%!!

    And for anybody thinking that his season was the product of a great team, his WOWYs seem to contradict that.

    On a statistic analysis only, Smith looks legit.

    LT will no doubt be following Smith’s career closely even if he isn’t picked by the Oilers just so he can bust out a “I told you punks” whenever the 2018 draft comes up. 😀

  28. dustrock says:

    Andy Dufresne: Paying him what they have suggests to me that he must have some value in the NHL Marketplace. Otherwise they would have done exactly what you suggested……cut bait and go to the marketplace for a replacement/upgrade.

    But that’s the thing Andy, the NHL really is an Old Boys’ Club in all aspects. I would expect GMs to be much more ruthless and still have a collegial relationship afterwards.

    I’d sell high on everybody, but that rarely happens.

    and Chia got in trouble in Boston partially because every single player, even the Chris Kellys of the roster, were getting the Stanley Cup Warm Fuzzies Contracts.

  29. Truth says:

    supernova: Would you take him at pick 40

    supernova: Would you take him at pick 40

    I wonder what the Oiler’s best offer was to FLA for his rights? I wonder what FLA was asking for?
    Would be a Chiarelli move to offer a 6th round pick to FLA while they were asking for a 4th, only to scoop him up using their 2nd when the draft rolls around.

    You have to think the ask from FLA was no higher than a 3rd round pick…no? Lose an asset for nothing or recoup something.

  30. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I’d sure love to know what the Oilers use as metrics. It’s a real headscratcher to me. They seem to value physical play very highly, more than stuff like say being an NHL player that wins the day in a given role.

    Its a good question. I think they value skills that they believe win PLAYOFF games. Hence the dumping of Eberle and the elevated appreciation of players like Russell, Lucic, Larsson, Nurse, and to a similar but lesser degree Benning and Caggiula (smaller but VERY physical for their size)

  31. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m not a fan on buyouts unless a player has declined to the point you can’t play them. A sell off is far better. The drag on the cap isn’t worth it, and if you have to replace the player are you any dollars ahead?

    As mentioned before, movement clauses aren’t necessarily about not being traded, but having control over trades. Players want to play and enjoy their career and team, time is short for most in the league. They are getting paid regardless of a trade.

    I doubt that they want to trade Russell based on what they seem to value. They’ll move Sekera and Klef first because of the physical side, being better players doesn’t seem to register.

    Russell isn’t physical but he blocks those shots when he’s losing possession battles and hemmed in 🙂

  32. maudite says:

    If 2 and 3 were 7 only!

    TVZ all day. Thanks for finally going here!

  33. Woogie63 says:

    dustrock:
    Lotta the usual twitter talk “can’t believe fans are getting upset over $200,000.00”, well guys, when Chiarelli overpays every frickin player on the team, we do go up hard against the cap, don’t we?

    I’d prefer to cut bait on Caligula and go fishing somewhere else, but I think they still worry about perception – remember the Oilers won a bit of a bidding war to grab Drake, and I think they feel they need to be seen to do good.

    Attracting UFAs here isn’t necessarily an easy thing, even with McDavid.

    If Cane’s model is correct (it is a spreadsheet with his assumptions). $200,000 on an $80M budget is insignificant. To say .2% is an overpay might be banging on about another narrative.

  34. JimmyV1965 says:

    While I agree the Drake is an overpay by $200,000 and it’s becoming very frustrating that the GM gives away too much all the frickin time, letting him walk would be a huge mistake. Even if he sucks and you send him to the minors, the cap hit is $500,000. Even though he’s older, there is still some upside with this kid, especially on the defensive side of the game.

  35. dustrock says:

    Woogie63: If Cane’s model is correct (it is a spreadsheet with his assumptions).$200,000 on an $80M budget is insignificant.To say .2% is an overpay might be banging on about another narrative.

    In a vacuum, I agree 100%. It’s peanuts. But it doesn’t hurt the narrative that Chia will always overpay, does it?

  36. Andy Dufresne says:

    dustrock: But that’s the thing Andy, the NHL really is an Old Boys’ Club in all aspects.I would expect GMs to be much more ruthless and still have a collegial relationship afterwards.

    I’d sell high on everybody, but that rarely happens.

    and Chia got in trouble in Boston partially because every single player, even the Chris Kellys of the roster, were getting the Stanley Cup Warm Fuzzies Contracts.

    Very true. I think it represents the gap between what is percived to be “logical” and what is “reality”. Historically speaking the league rewards results that are not typically “analytics” based. Winning Stanley is a big one. Playoff performance relative to regular season is another big one. Scoring goals is perhaps the biggest one. (Example: Defensemen who score get paid, even it they are not sound defensively.)

    Things are changing…but slowly.

  37. JimmyV1965 says:

    dustrock:
    Lotta the usual twitter talk “can’t believe fans are getting upset over $200,000.00”, well guys, when Chiarelli overpays every frickin player on the team, we do go up hard against the cap, don’t we?

    I’d prefer to cut bait on Caligula and go fishing somewhere else, but I think they still worry about perception – remember the Oilers won a bit of a bidding war to grab Drake, and I think they feel they need to be seen to do good.

    Attracting UFAs here isn’t necessarily an easy thing, even with McDavid.

    Chia gets routinely cropped on for his bad signings and overpays, and so he should. Yet you’re worried that it affects the team’s ability to sign UFAs. I’ll be happy if we never ever again sign a UFA in the first week of free agency.

  38. Andy Dufresne says:

    dustrock:
    Man, Smith’s GFRel was 18.6%!!

    And for anybody thinking that his season was the product of a great team, his WOWYs seem to contradict that.

    On a statistic analysis only, Smith looks legit.

    LT will no doubt be following Smith’s career closely even if he isn’t picked by the Oilers just so he can bust out a “I told you punks” whenever the 2018 draft comes up.

    Ty Smith looks like the new prototypical NHL defenseman as compared to Evan Bouchard who looks more like the old school prototype. Will be interesting to see how far apart they go in the draft.

  39. Andy Dufresne says:

    russ99: Let’s be honest. As much as I’m a fan, Slepyshev didn’t put up results.

    I would liked to have seen him “accept” a role as a 4th line energy player at $750K. He had the size, speed and motor to do it if was willing to adapt to the role. But he almost certainly viewed himself as an offensive style weapon, and knew he could play that offensive role in the KHL and for a little more money as well

  40. Woogie63 says:

    dustrock: In a vacuum, I agree 100%.It’s peanuts.But it doesn’t hurt the narrative that Chia will always overpay, does it?

    I get that POV, however

    The cap will go up +2.5% this year. Agents for players on cap teams expect their players to get their share as the cap raises.

    Was Cane’s projects on a $78M, $80M or $82M cap?

  41. Andy Dufresne says:

    Truth:
    I wonder what the Oiler’s best offer was to FLA for his rights?I wonder what FLA was asking for?Would be a Chiarelli move to offer a 6th round pick to FLA while they were asking for a 4th, only to scoop him up using their 2nd when the draft rolls around.

    You have to think the ask from FLA was no higher than a 3rd round pick…no?Lose an asset for nothing or recoup something.

    It implies Florida couldnt get a 7th…..why else would they have let him go for nothing? Why jump to critizing Chia……logic suggests that NO GM offered even a 6th or 7th…..unless Im missing something….which is entirely possible.

  42. Goilers says:

    Wouldn’t Skinner and Wells both be ‘slide’ players as well?

  43. 36 percent body fat says:

    russ99,

    i agree, but he had talent. What would his results be if given the opportunities caggulia got.

    The point is, they choose to push the less talented player and we lost an asset because of their philosophy. There talent analysis has proven to be wrong over and over again.

  44. Andy Dufresne says:

    JimmyV1965:
    While I agree the Drake is an overpay by $200,000 and it’s becoming very frustrating that the GM gives away too much all the frickin time, letting him walk would be a huge mistake.Even if he sucks and you send him to the minors, the cap hit is $500,000. Even though he’s older, there is still some upside with this kid, especially on the defensive side of the game.

    They definitley see more in him than his analytics suggests. One is for sure his agressive/physical style. The other is either his offensive trajectory, or the idea that he is very coachable and they beleive they can coach him up on the defensive side of the game…..otherwise it would probably have been a one year deal.

  45. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne: It implies Florida couldnt get a 7th…..why else would they have let him go for nothing?Why jump to critizing Chia……logic suggests that NO GM offered even a 6th or 7th…..unless Im missing something….which is entirely possible.

    That Masherin thing is a head scratcher. Surely some GM would have offered a fourth round pick. And where does Masherin stack up compared to Marody, who we gave up a third for?

  46. Andy Dufresne says:

    Andy Dufresne: I would have like to have seen him “accept” a role as a 4th line energy player at $750K. He had the size, speed and motor to do it if was willing to adapt to the role. But he almost certainly viewed himself as an offensive style weapon, and knew he could play that offensive role in the KHL and for a little more money as well

  47. npanciroli says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I’m wondering if Mascherin just refused to confirm he would sign with anyone at all? Does seem odd someone wouldn’t offer a fourth or a third.

  48. dustrock says:

    JimmyV1965: Chia gets routinely cropped on for his bad signings and overpays, and so he should. Yet you’re worried that it affects the team’s ability to sign UFAs.I’ll be happy if we never ever again sign a UFA in the first week of free agency.

    Yeah I’m trying to separate what I think the Oilers should do, and what I think the concerns the organization has.

    Me: Don’t sign UFAs, don’t overpay especially for middling resuilts. Cut bait early, sell high.

    Oilers: Sign UFAs, make organization attractive to UFAs and guys with NMCs, pay players, keep them happy.

  49. Connoreah says:

    Regarding Caggiula $$ and term, 2 questions LT (or anyone else)….

    Who is the target, at the same price, for the bottom six winger role Drake will fill if we didn’t sign him? Is there an obvious guy you have in mind?

    And, is the additional $200k worth having a guy who knows the coach, knows the system, knows the room going into next season? Or would it be better to bring in a new guy at $1.3?

  50. russ99 says:

    36 percent body fat:
    russ99,

    i agree, but he had talent. What would his results be if given the opportunities caggulia got.

    The point is, they choose to push the less talented player and we lost an asset because of their philosophy.There talent analysis has proven to be wrong over and over again.

    Good point.

    For some reason this organization has some kind of bugaboo towards European players who don’t make the trip to the CHL before they’re drafted and it’s to their detriment.

  51. jfry says:

    Woogie63: If Cane’s model is correct (it is a spreadsheet with his assumptions).$200,000 on an $80M budget is insignificant.To say .2% is an overpay might be banging on about another narrative.

    But you have to times that by 25 players. And some are overpaid more than 200k. Russell and lucic come to mind quickly.

    This gets you in the range of 5% which is a huge number. Or as lowetide implied, a full 4m dollar impact player.

    This is a thing.

  52. 36 percent body fat says:

    Caggulia over pay 500K
    Lucic over pay 2M minimum
    Russel overpay 1.5M
    Draisaitl overpay 750K
    Kassian overpay 250K
    Pouliot buy out 1.33M
    Gryba in Minors 250K
    Koskinen over the other russian 1.7 more
    =====================
    Chia has wasted 7.2 or so in cap space, cap space is an asset, he has given away an asset because he doesn know how to negotiate

    Hall for Larson – missing a second round pick minium
    Reinhart trade – Barzal and Carlo
    Eberle for Strome – Hard to quanitify lets say a third should have been added
    Trading for this last scrub that will never play in the nhl (you know what he is now) – 7th round (lottery ticket) ill take the ticket over an echl player
    Montoya for a 4th

    so basically in terms of lost assets under chia
    7.2M
    2nd round pick
    barzal (calder winner)
    Carlo (all tool NHL RHD)
    3rd rounder
    4th rounder
    7th rounder

    all while the team is worse with more holes in it and a worse cap situation, and yes i didnt mention the two trades he won. But in regards to Talbot, that was also a favour from the rangers and actually is a pretty normal trade for a backup goalie going to another team to get a chance to be a starter.

    Why does this guy still have a job.

  53. Connoreah says:

    dustrock: In a vacuum, I agree 100%.It’s peanuts.But it doesn’t hurt the narrative that Chia will always overpay, does it?

    Friendly reminder that the Oilers’ top pairing dman with the amazing contract that everyone here loves and everyone in other cities wants was signed by Chiarelli. It would appear that he is in fact capable of winning a negotiation (at least one).

  54. adamjames2 says:

    Ahh another great Townes Van Zandt tune. If Townes is the musical theme for the off-season, “Only Him or Me” is one of many great choices for when the Lucic trade goes down:
    “Don’t go sayin’ I’m leaving you, thinkin I never got close enough to stay” fits like a glove.

  55. Connoreah says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Caggulia over pay 500K
    Lucic over pay 2M minimum
    Russel overpay 1.5M
    Draisaitl overpay 750K
    Kassian overpay 250K
    Pouliot buy out 1.33M
    Gryba in Minors 250K
    Koskinen over the other russian 1.7 more
    =====================
    Chia has wasted 7.2 or so in cap space,cap space is an asset, he has given away an asset because he doesn know how to negotiate

    Hall for Larson – missing a second round pick minium
    Reinhart trade – Barzal and Carlo
    Eberle for Strome – Hard to quanitify lets say a third should have been added
    Trading for this last scrub that will never play in the nhl (you know what he is now) – 7th round (lottery ticket) ill take the ticket over an echl player
    Montoya for a 4th

    so basically in terms of lost assets under chia
    7.2M
    2nd round pick
    barzal (calder winner)
    Carlo (all tool NHL RHD)
    3rd rounder
    4th rounder
    7th rounder

    all while the team is worse with more holes in it and a worse cap situation, and yes i didnt mention the two trades he won. But in regards to Talbot, that was also a favour from the rangers and actually is a pretty normal trade for a backup goalie going to another team to get a chance to be a starter.

    Why does this guy still have a job.

    Who else has Chiarelli signed since he arrived? Klefbom, Talbot, Benning…. would be interesting to see if any of the other contracts balance out the perceived overpays. Probably not, would probably give a more fair depiction of the situation, no?

  56. Oilin4 says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Caggulia over pay 500K
    Lucic over pay 2M minimum
    Russel overpay 1.5M
    Draisaitl overpay 750K
    Kassian overpay 250K
    Pouliot buy out 1.33M
    Gryba in Minors 250K
    Koskinen over the other russian 1.7 more
    =====================
    Chia has wasted 7.2 or so in cap space,cap space is an asset, he has given away an asset because he doesn know how to negotiate

    Hall for Larson – missing a second round pick minium
    Reinhart trade – Barzal and Carlo
    Eberle for Strome – Hard to quanitify lets say a third should have been added
    Trading for this last scrub that will never play in the nhl (you know what he is now) – 7th round (lottery ticket) ill take the ticket over an echl player
    Montoya for a 4th

    so basically in terms of lost assets under chia
    7.2M
    2nd round pick
    barzal (calder winner)
    Carlo (all tool NHL RHD)
    3rd rounder
    4th rounder
    7th rounder

    all while the team is worse with more holes in it and a worse cap situation, and yes i didnt mention the two trades he won. But in regards to Talbot, that was also a favour from the rangers and actually is a pretty normal trade for a backup goalie going to another team to get a chance to be a starter.

    Why does this guy still have a job.

    Great summary. Could add making many of these contracts unmovable and impossible to buy out, but I imagine you were trying to keep it short.

  57. Visually better says:

    This team is run by donkeys.

    Made a poll on Twitter: who would you rather have?

    Eberle, pouliot, pitlick, slepyshev

    Or

    Strome, kassian, Caggiula, Aberg.

    Hint: if anyone chooses the second you need to have a sit down with yourself and really reflect on some things

  58. dustrock says:

    Connoreah: Friendly reminder that the Oilers’ top pairing dman with the amazing contract that everyone here loves and everyone in other cities wants was signed by Chiarelli. It would appear that he is in fact capable of winning a negotiation (at least one).

    One of the best contracts he’s ever signed, I agree completely. He wasn’t here long enough to appreciate Klefa to overpay him. 😉

  59. Ivan says:

    LT, I believe that Braden Christoffer is signed to an AHL deal, according to the Condors site.
    Not sure why, given his performance to date……

  60. greenshifter says:

    After last seasons results, It’s safe to say every Oiler, except McDavid, will be overpaid to start the year.

  61. Munny says:

    LT said…

    “Very few general managers double down.”

    Exactly! I have a huge problem with this contract and extending a bet that has not paid money.

    How does a team with the lack of success that was had last season give out a contract with a nearly 80% raise AND term to a player who wouldn’t have scored 10 without McDavid and a bloated shooting percentage.

    The Gords wept while Atlas shrugged.

  62. Brantford Boy says:

    maudite:
    If 2 and 3 were 7 only!

    TVZ all day.Thanks for finally going here!

    Now if 6 turned out to be 9
    I don’t mind, I don’t mind

  63. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Enjoying the Townes Van Zandt theme lately.

    Its causing me to discover songs I hadn’t heard and find a few that its been forever since I heard.

    Thanks for that.

  64. Bank Shot says:

    Visually better:
    This team is run by donkeys.

    Made a poll on Twitter: who would you rather have?

    Eberle, pouliot, pitlick, slepyshev

    Or

    Strome, kassian, Caggiula, Aberg.

    Hint: if anyone chooses the second you need to have a sit down with yourself and really reflect on some things

    Are we talking about the same Pouliot that had 4 goals and 8 points in his last 40 games last season and whom the Oilers would have been paying $4 million dollars?

    The only player in that group worth a damn is Eberle, so yeah the first group is better, but its not like its great as a whole.

  65. slopitch says:

    Drake shoulda got 1 year * 1 mill. The Oilers are bleeding value on almost every contract. And its impacting their ability to field a competitive roster.

  66. Richard S.S. says:

    Edmonton has an average of 9 months of Winter and 3 months of Non-Winter and no Chinooks. It costs 9-10% more to live in Edmonton due to increased cost. I was happy to leave in ‘82. It is one of the northernmost Hockey Markets in the world, even considering Europe and Russia. I expected Drake Caggiula to cost more to sign ($1.75); $1.5 is a bargain.

  67. Rondo says:

    This kid would be an excellent pick at #10 for the Oilers, hopefully he will drop.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TxGVSw6Ayw

    Guess who?

  68. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Personally, anyone that thought that Drake wasn’t going to be re-signed or that he was going to come in at the “league minimum” or otherwise under $1M, was not being reasonable – in my opinion.

    Yes, he has defensive deficiencies, yes he often “makes his teamates worse”, etc., however at the end of the day, he scored 13 goal and goals still matter, alot.

    I had him pegged for $1.25M and $1.5M at the upper end of what I felt would be reasonable so, at the end of the day, I’m fine with this contract.

    With that said, he needs to be used properly which is in a fourth line energy role.At some point he needs to kill penalties but that is not a skill he currently has.

    The issue with Drake, in my opinion, is that the style of play he needs to play to be successful is an crash and bang, tenacious type style and it seems when he plays that way, his body breaks down.

    End of the day the coach believes in him. He was played ahead of better players with top line centers hence 13 goals. Letestu would also be getting unearned ice time for same reason if he was still here. Do not think for a minute that the coach didn’t have a good deal to do with bringing back Russel and the trading of Pouliot! Definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results!

  69. McSorley33 says:

    Not a huge difference but the Oilers always pay full price plus a little.
    *****************************************************************************************
    Yep.

  70. pts2pndr says:

    russ99: Let’s be honest. As much as I’m a fan, Slepyshev didn’t put up results.

    He was never given a 7-10 game trial with one f the two offensive centers and played on the wing he was comfortable on. Not really put in a position to succeed due the Mcblender!

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: Ty Smith looks like the new prototypical NHL defenseman as compared to Evan Bouchard who looks more like the old school prototype.Will be interesting to see how far apart they go in the draft.

    I’m not so sure offensive D and especially smaller ones are going to become as prominent as some think. Teams follow the Champs model around constantly.

    All it takes is a Cup team with size and skill to push around and neutralize non physical and smaller players and the pendulum swings back. I believe that happened this year.

    The Kings were a heavy slower team, and that was trumped by speed and skill. Now we see bigger (generally not each player) teams with speed and skill such as the Jets and Caps, I won’t be surprised to see a lean back that way. Really in a contact sport that is the ideal.

    My concern with Boqvist and Smith – who both have issues now with the physical side despite the skill and IQ – is that their talent doesn’t translate all the way and you end up with a player getting points, making bigger money who needs shelter.

    Unless a short light player especially D is lights out unstoppable, I am not convinced there is a net benefit to the team if they get paid and can’t play toughs. I’d rather have Bouchard or Dobson (or of course Dahlin) because I see a more certain translation to the NHL, and they aren’t exactly plugger defensive D men either.

  72. Mike says:

    dustrock,

    I actually Believe he got the Klef contract largely based on injury history, and maybe klef himself was worried about that in his mind as well. Therefore klef was looking for term and security.

  73. Alpine says:

    I’ll say this again about Caggiula, I don’t think the contract is an overpay provided he improves. Where the improvement comes from, I’m not so sure.

    Drake has been good at looking like he’s a physical, gritty player without actually using that to be effective. He hits hard sometimes but you don’t see him super involved in the defensive zone or along the boards. He doesn’t work that hard away from the puck.

    Offensively, we see a guy who scored 13 goals, which is impressive for a bottom six forward. However, his usage hasn’t been typically that of a bottom six forward, as he’s been given enough top six time to give him a scoring boost, as well as consistent second unit PP time. Drake had a 12.5 sh% last year which I’m not sure he can repeat year to year. For reference, he shot 7% in a similar number of games in 2016/17.

    For Drake going forward, I’m not sure if you can count on him to improve his offense going forward. He likely won’t or shouldn’t see as much top 6 time, he’ll be playing in depth role that’s likely to feature more Dzone starts. The percentages might not favour him as much in the future and he’s not been one to create his own offense. The underlying numbers mostly dislike him as well so it’s not like there’s tons of shots to turn into goals.

    It’s very likely he’s just a guy. It’s fine paying these guys whatever in the hopes that they turn into more than just a guy, but the Oilers have to be careful with their cap situation. Some people are under the impression that Drake will be a bargain because they think he’ll be a very good fourth liner. Thing is when he’s been deployed as a fourth liner, that’s when he’s had his worst results. I’m not sure what this player will succeed at.

  74. Alpine says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Edmonton has an average of 9 months of Winter and 3 months of Non-Winter and no Chinooks.It costs 9-10% more to live in Edmonton due to increased cost.I was happy to leave in ‘82.It is one of the northernmost Hockey Markets in the world, even considering Europe and Russia.I expected Drake Caggiula to cost more to sign ($1.75); $1.5 is a bargain.

    9 months of winter??? On Average? Like Edmonton’s cold but September and May are literally always warm. That leaves 7 months but April and October are more often than not Non-Winter months. All bets are off for the remaining five months. It’s not Yakutsk.

  75. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    With that said, he needs to be used properly which is in a fourth line energy role.At some point he needs to kill penalties but that is not a skill he currently has.

    On a contending NHL team, there is no such position called a “4th line energy role”. On a contending team, every 4th line player is solid defensively and can PK>

  76. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    McSorley33:
    Not a huge difference but the Oilers always pay full price plus a little.
    *****************************************************************************************
    Yep.

    – It’s Edmonton: it’s not a desirable place, with no winning culture. It is what it is

    – When we be humming it will be the next Detroit, and guys will come. Untill then it’s a bottom-5 team in terms of city to play in the NHL and a lot of years of really really bad hockey

    – Overpaying is part of of small town, minor teams. Unless we be Winnepeg and had let it marinate for years, you are over-paying for guys who want to get paid

    * I am not trashing the City of Edmonton. It’s a great city. But objectively if one has no ties to the community or affinity for that area, in terms of desirability, you would be hard pressed to argue for millionaires, its desirable. And the team sucks

  77. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne: They definitley see more in him than his analytics suggests. One is for sure his agressive/physical style. The other is either his offnsive trajectory, or the idea that he is very coachable and they beleive they can coach him up on the defesive side of the game…..otherwise it would probably have been a one year deal.

    They have had two years to coach up Caggiula on the defensive side of the game, which suggests that he isn’t coachable.

  78. bendelson says:

    Just curious: I predicted 8 x $5M for Nurse in Kinger’s Poll. Has anyone gone higher?
    We all know the overpay is coming… whether reflected in a long term deal or a bridge.
    I can’t have the ‘least’ confidence in Chia’s contract negotiation skills, on this entire site!!
    Anybody?

  79. godot10 says:

    Connoreah:
    Regarding Caggiula $$ and term, 2 questions LT (or anyone else)….

    Who is the target, at the same price, for the bottom six winger role Drake will fill if we didn’t sign him? Is there an obvious guy you have in mind?

    And, is the additional $200k worth having a guy who knows the coach, knows the system, knows the room going into next season? Or would it be better to bring in a new guy at $1.3?

    Drake doesn’t know the system. After two years, he is still miserable defensively.

  80. Ryan says:

    Looking at the inflationary effect of having McDavid on the roster would be an interesting blog to read. Then do a comparable to see how Pittsburg managed the Crosby effect. Cue Jonathan Willis someone.

    For Drake, subtract out his McDavid minutes at evens and on the PP and prorate his other minutes to fill the void.

    Seriously. No one should be on McDavid’s line during a contract year at all.

    Drake is sort of like a typical Oilers depth player in that he’s bad enough that most good teams would have no interest since they have better options internally, but that he’s good enough that the baddies would probably have a look.

    Sort of makes me thing of a guy like Pouliot albeit at a different career arc, their boxcars last year marched in lockstep. Pouliot was paid 1.15m as a free agent last season.

  81. Ryan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I don’t think that’s entirely fair.

    Winnipeg and Buffalo are less desirable places to live and I don’t see either of those teams paper cutting themselves to death on every contract like we do.

  82. godot10 says:

    bendelson:
    Just curious:I predicted 8 x $5M for Nurse in Kinger’s Poll.Has anyone gone higher?
    We all know the overpay is coming… whether reflected in a long term deal or a bridge.
    I can’t have the ‘least’ confidence in Chia’s contract negotiation skills, on this entire site!!
    Anybody?

    I haven’t entered the contest yet, but I am predicting a 4 or 5 year x $5.9 million offer sheet for Nurse.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stauffer just mentioned he thinks Nurse will sign a bridge around $3M (I think he said $3M, maybe it was $3.5M).

    Bob was specifically asked what he thinks it would be if he signed long term and he said 8 X $4.5M although dependent on where the cap goes (but he does think it will be a bridge).

  84. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock:
    Lotta the usual twitter talk “can’t believe fans are getting upset over $200,000.00”, well guys, when Chiarelli overpays every frickin player on the team, we do go up hard against the cap, don’t we?

    I’d prefer to cut bait on Caligula and go fishing somewhere else, but I think they still worry about perception – remember the Oilers won a bit of a bidding war to grab Drake, and I think they feel they need to be seen to do good.

    Attracting UFAs here isn’t necessarily an easy thing, even with McDavid.

    The suggestion that Caggulia was overpaid in this contract is the product of two things, IMHO, Chia always overpays and Matt Cane’s model predicted him at 2yrs at $1.3M.

    As for the first, Chia’s history of tipping the help handsomely – not sure we can move past that perception until he gets a deal that is clearly acknowledged as a bargain. I don’t know if that will become apparent until several years after the deals signed as he has, rightly IMO, started to sign players for prospective as opposed to past performance. The real test case here will be Leon’s contract. I strongly suspect that when a few of the up and coming stud forwards begin to sign their post-ELC deals Drai’s contract will come to be seen as a great bargain signing by Chia. One example of this that we do have is actually Oscar Klefbom’s September 2015 deal. As it is I would argue it is a fair deal and had Oscar not had the health issues we would be talking about it as one of the great deals in the league. Hope he doesn’t get traded because that contract’s next 5 seasons could be special.

    As for the Matt Cane project, I have been following what he has been up to for a while now and am really intrigued, but it is a work in progress and error is part of the process as he refines his model. A comparison point that may be applicable is today’s signing, by that chump of a GM in Chicago, where Stan Bowman signed 24-year old, undersized forward coming out of his ELC for the exact same 2yrs by $1.5M as Caggulia just got. Matt Cane’s model predicted he should have gotten 2yrs by $1.148M. So is this an example of an over $350K overpayment for a player who scored only 7goals as opposed to the 13 that Caggs potted or, instead, is it a sign that Cane had a model that is still being tweaked?

    One of the things that I think makes Matt Cane’s model particularly interesting is that while he makes a prediction of both the years and AAV of a contract, he also maps out what the model would predict for longer and shorter deals. I may be mistaken but I believe that Caggulia’s contract will end with him still as an RFA (though with arb rights). Had the Caggulia contract been a 3 year deal, which I believe would eat up his last RFA year, the AAV under Cane’s model would have been around $1.8M. I wonder if the idea was to get Caggulia to split the difference in money ($1.5M being right in the middle of $1.8M and $1.3M) but do a two year deal so he remains an RFA with club control.

    If so, I don’t think there is a philosophical objection to erring on money as opposed to erring on term.

    Anyhow, my two cents.

  85. Back 9 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – It’s Edmonton: it’s not a desirable place, with no winning culture.It is what it is

    – When we be humming it will be the next Detroit, and guys will come.Untill then it’s a bottom-5 team in terms of city to play inthe NHL and a lot of years of really really bad hockey

    – Overpaying is part of of small town, minor teams.Unless we be Winnepeg and had let it marinate for years, you are over-paying for guys who want to get paid

    * I am not trashing the City of Edmonton.It’s a great city.But objectively if one has no ties to the community or affinity for that area, in terms of desirability, you would be hard pressed to argue for millionaires, its desirable

    Not singling you out because you hear this comment a lot about players not wanting to play in Edmonton. While that may be true for a lot of star players the Oilers have pursued, it’s a bit of a stretch to say Drake had his choice of teams.

    How many NHL player jobs are there? How many players at Drake’s skill level would go anywhere (yes, even Edmonton) just to play on an NHL team? We have Canadians playing in the KHL because they can’t find an NHL team to hire them and you’re saying we have to overpay Drake so he can stay and play for the Edmonton Oilers?

  86. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Ryan:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I don’t think that’s entirely fair.

    Winnipeg and Buffalo are less desirable places to live and I don’t see either of those teams paper cutting themselves to death on every contract like we do.

    – Winnepeg has almost exclusively home grown talent. Okposo says hi, and Buffalo sucks, and don’t try to bring in guys to win…Buffalo and winnepeg would also be bottom-5 cities to live in. Only the marinating in the ‘peg has rewarded them with internal guys who stepped up last year.

    – with the mandate in place: i.e one of the wealthier owners in the league, combined with one of the worst teams, in a city that is not high on the list for most non-local millionaire 20-somethings, over-paying is better than not signing guys who shouldn’t be in the NHL (and who were also over-paid)

    – When Edmonton is a winner, they will attract more players who will if there is a tie, they will choose Edmonton. Most 28 year olds though, they be all about either warm climates, or big cities. Paym me $3MM to be in Edmonton, or $2.8MM to be in Florida, and my family will be happier: both teams suck, but Florida just was better in that situation IMO, for most

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elliot Friedman just stated on Oilers Now that the Oilers have been clear that they are not going to “give up a ransom” to get rid of the contract.

    Thank goodness.

  88. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Back 9: Not singling you out because you hear this comment a lot about players not wanting to play in Edmonton.While that may be true for a lot of star players the Oilers have pursued, it’s a bit of a stretch to say Drake had his choice of teams.

    How many NHL player jobs are there?How many players at Drake’s skill level would go anywhere (yes, even Edmonton) just to play on an NHL team?We have Canadians playing in the KHL because they can’t find an NHL team to hire them and you’re saying we have to overpay Drake so he can stay and play for the Edmonton Oilers?

    – For $1.5MM who are the other options?

    – Sure he’s not great, but to get someone else to come up to Edmonton, it’s not so easy. They sleep with the devil they know, or they sign some washed out guy who has no ties to Edmonton (and will ask a premium to come play here)

    – His AAV went from $1.35MM to $1.5MM, while the cap went up and he scored some goals, and he’s committed.

    – NHL players don’t grow on trees. He got a $150K raise. This is how hockey salaries work

    – you ask where else he’d go: an injured, older busted Pitlick got $1MM x3. Caggs would get signed elsewhere

  89. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Maybe I should hold off judgment of Caggiula’s deal until I see what Schaller, Comeau, Grant, Gibbons, Calvert, Chiasson, Roussel get in UFA. And they have more power in negotiations. Caggiula is really just the most easily replaceable player.

  90. Woogie63 says:

    jfry: But you have to times that by 25 players. And some are overpaid more than 200k. Russell and lucic come to mind quickly.

    This gets you in the range of 5% which is a huge number. Or as lowetide implied, a full 4m dollar impact player.

    This is a thing.

    Ok 25 .2% overspent adds up.
    But
    1. Klefbom, Larsson and Khaira would represent conservatively $2M in under paying
    2. The Cap goes up $2M every two years
    3. Oilers are one of 10ish team that can spend all the way to the max of the cap.

    This is contact is definitely in the zone.

    Let’s not make a Caggiula contract into everything PC does is terrible story.

  91. bendelson says:

    OK gang…

    WAY off tangent and miles from nowhere, but I’ll ask nevertheless:
    If song #1 is ‘Money’ by the Flying Lizards…
    And song #2 is ‘Back In Flesh’ by Wall of Voodoo…
    What is song #3?

  92. Alpine says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Probably gonna have to sign one of those guys to play 3LW anyways. It’s all we can afford.

  93. Geranium Lover says:

    bendelson: I predicted 8 x $5M for Nurse in Kinger’s Poll. Has anyone gone higher?

    I did 8 X 5.25MM because overpay is the norm.

  94. ashley says:

    JimmyV1965: .I’ll be happy if we never ever again sign a UFA in the first week of free agency.

    Amen. There are some good teams that don’t go near the FA market in the first few days.

    I think that might be the smart play.

  95. Fiveinatrailer says:

    If the oil had traded for mascherin (sp?) was there any retention of his rights or could he still be re drafted again anyway? I think that’s the risk. Trade for him but he doesn’t sign and you lose him anyway.

    Can someone pls do a scout of unsigned college grads? I ask because Brandon Hickey never signed with Calgary (and traded) but now graduating from Boston U and NOONE. has brought him or similar player up.

  96. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – For $1.5MM who are the other options?

    – Sure he’s not great, but to get someone else to come up to Edmonton, it’s not so easy.They sleep with the devil they know, or they sign some washed out guy who has no ties to Edmonton (and will ask a premium to come play here)

    – His AAV went from $1.35MM to $1.5MM, while the cap went up and he scored some goals, and he’s committed.

    – NHL players don’t grow on trees.He got a $150K raise.This is how hockey salaries work

    – you ask where else he’d go: an injured, older busted Pitlick got $1MM x3.Caggs would get signed elsewhere

    I doubt he earned much of his bonus money. So he didn’t get a $150K raise, he got over a 50% raise over $500K.

  97. godot10 says:

    Fiveinatrailer:
    If the oil had traded for mascherin (sp?) was there any retention of his rights or could he still be re drafted again anyway? I think that’s the risk.Trade for him but he doesn’t sign and you lose him anyway.

    Can someone pls do a scout of unsigned college grads? I ask because Brandon Hickey never signed with Calgary (and traded) but now graduating from Boston U and NOONE. has brought him or similar player up.

    He would not be a free agent until August 15th.

  98. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide wrote an article over at The Althletic recently making a case for trading with the Leafs for Josh Leivo. Made a very reasonable argument.

    Leivo is more than a year older than Caggulia and is considerably larger at 6’2″ and 205lbs, but has not shown the same scoring ability at the NHL level (being blocked by the Toronto roster)….but his AHL numbers are pretty similar to Caggulias NCAA numbers.

    Leivo is signed for next season at $925K.

    Might be a comparable.

  99. Younger Oil says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Maybe I should hold off judgment of Caggiula’s deal until I see what Schaller, Comeau, Grant, Gibbons, Calvert, Chiasson, Roussel get in UFA. And they have more power in negotiations. Caggiula is really just the most easily replaceable player.

    Hinostroza just got the exact same contract as Caggiula.

    Same age, got 25 points in 50 games (0.5 PPG) compared to Caggiula’s 20 points in 67 games (0.3 PPG).

    Caggiula shouldn’t have gotten more than $750k, he’s a replacement level player.

    Signing a plug and play for league minimum and using the extra $1M to help sign our more valuable RFAs would be far, far more beneficial to the team.

    These little (and big) mistakes really, really add up.

  100. Back 9 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – For $1.5MM who are the other options?

    – Sure he’s not great, but to get someone else to come up to Edmonton, it’s not so easy.They sleep with the devil they know, or they sign some washed out guy who has no ties to Edmonton (and will ask a premium to come play here)

    – His AAV went from $1.35MM to $1.5MM, while the cap went up and he scored some goals, and he’s committed.

    – NHL players don’t grow on trees.He got a $150K raise.This is how hockey salaries work

    – you ask where else he’d go: an injured, older busted Pitlick got $1MM x3.Caggs would get signed elsewhere

    My point was that you should be able to find tweeners who want to play in the NHL instead of other leagues. You’re saying it’s Drake or a washed out guy. Even if those were the only 2 options, why would someone who’s washed out refuse to play in the NHL if offered the option by a team?

    Yes, NHL players do not grow on trees. I guess our disconnect is I don’t think necessarily think Drake is an NHL player.

  101. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Speaking of home grown…..Ty Smith is from Llyodminster Alberta/Sask

  102. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar,
    Poll for the Group

    Freidman brought up Lucic and JP for Hanafin again.

    How do you vote

    Yay or Nay?

  103. Andy Dufresne says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    OriginalPouzar,
    Poll for the Group

    Freidman brought up Lucic and JP for Hanafin again.

    How do you vote

    Yay or Nay?

    Hey Andy,

    I vote Yay!

  104. RonnieB says:

    Fiveinatrailer:
    If the oil had traded for mascherin (sp?) was there any retention of his rights or could he still be re drafted again anyway? I think that’s the risk.Trade for him but he doesn’t sign and you lose him anyway.

    Can someone pls do a scout of unsigned college grads? I ask because Brandon Hickey never signed with Calgary (and traded) but now graduating from Boston U and NOONE. has brought him or similar player up.

    Brandon Hickey was just traded from Arizona to Buffalo.

  105. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    OriginalPouzar,
    Poll for the Group

    Freidman brought up Lucic and JP for Hanafin again.

    How do you vote

    Yay or Nay?

    Yay.

  106. LMHF#1 says:

    I haven’t been saying much and we’re still in the middle of June so who really knows…

    But my gawd is that an awful looking hockey team. Even with the best player in the world on it. Amazing that could be accomplished in such short order…Just sad…

  107. Andy Dufresne says:

    npanciroli:
    JimmyV1965,

    I’m wondering if Mascherin just refused to confirm he would sign with anyone at all? Does seem odd someone wouldn’t offer a fourth or a third.

    Maybe Mascherin was asking for garaunteed playing time.

  108. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Personally, anyone that thought that Drake wasn’t going to be re-signed or that he was going to come in at the “league minimum” or otherwise under $1M, was not being reasonable – in my opinion.

    Yes, he has defensive deficiencies, yes he often “makes his teamates worse”, etc., however at the end of the day, he scored 13 goal and goals still matter, alot.

    I had him pegged for $1.25M and $1.5M at the upper end of what I felt would be reasonable so, at the end of the day, I’m fine with this contract.

    With that said, he needs to be used properly which is in a fourth line energy role.At some point he needs to kill penalties but that is not a skill he currently has.

    The issue with Drake, in my opinion, is that the style of play he needs to play to be successful is an crash and bang, tenacious type style and it seems when he plays that way, his body breaks down.

    I fundamentally disagree. I won’t argue with you (haven’t time) but I’ll leave you with this:

    Caggiula’s 0.87ppg (5v5) with Strome (his likely center) puts him at 430th best forward in the league this year… and there are only 372 full-time positions available (12 x 31).
    His 1.16ppg total (including significant time with McDavid and Draisaitl) put him at 350th of 372 – so BELOW AVERAGE 4TH LINER PRODUCTION RATE. And he isn’t good at defence either – his 3.09 GA/60 was 443rd for forwards this year.

    So his offence, including time one 1st and 2nd line, is below average for a 4th line player.
    His offense not including time on 1st and 2nd line is about “AHL call-up” level.
    His defense overall is about “AHL call-up” level.

    He may be a 4th liner, but he’s not a good one. $1.5M is simply too much.

  109. Andy Dufresne says:

    Stauffer hinting buyout may be coming for Gryba.

  110. JimmyV1965 says:

    Visually better:
    This team is run by donkeys.

    Made a poll on Twitter: who would you rather have?

    Eberle, pouliot, pitlick, slepyshev

    Or

    Strome, kassian, Caggiula, Aberg.

    Hint: if anyone chooses the second you need to have a sit down with yourself and really reflect on some things

    No offence, but I bust a gut reading this post. I’m sure the twitter poll had many reasoned responses. Funny thing is, it’s a pretty close grouping. Ebs is the only top 6 player of the bunch so his group wins. The rest are third and fourth liners. Not sure why you have Aberg in there and not Letestu.

    I love that you ended the post with that hint zinger. LOL

  111. LMHF#1 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Stauffer hinting buyout may be coming for Gryba.

    Bad contract when it was signed….there is a rather discernible pattern with this GM.

  112. VOR says:

    I will freely admit I am probably unique in this, but as someone who lives outside I loved the years I lived in Edmonton.

    I lived in Garneau and Rossdale. I walked to the University, downtown and Whyte Avenue. I ran on the trails, cycled on the trails, rowed on the river, kayaked on the river, speed skated on Victoria Oval, skated at Rundle and Hawrelak Park, cross country skied at Clover Bar and as often as possible Blackfoot and Elk Island. I skied and snow boarded and never left the City. I also loved the Fringe, the Works, the Street Performers Festival, the Folk Music Festival and my personal favourite Taste of Edmonton. Ok I’ll admit it I had season tickets to the Symphony, the Opera, the Ballet, and the Citadel. And of course I could hop on the LRT for Oilers games.

    Before I go on I lived in LA and I hated every minute of it. Being able to eat oranges and lemons off the trees in my back yard was wonderful. Having to wash the black soot off them first really sort of ruined the experience. Oh and driving two hours to travel what I could have cycled in 15 minutes if there was such a thing as a sensible bike lane/path system. The lack of a proper transit system drove me nuts. The beaches were great I guess but other than that – well the last time I lived there was during the Rodney King riots. They burnt a Korean grocery two blocks from my house. Probably colours my memories of the place.

    I have greatly enjoyed living in other warm weather cities. I lived in San Francisco and came to understand what Clemens meant when he said “the coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco” but God the incredible cultural amenities made up for it. I lived in Santa Cruz and Davis two of the best College towns in the US and I’d highly recommend either one as a great place to live. But Vegas was my favourite sunshine City, all that desert to explore, all that night life to eat up. Of course back then psycho snipers weren’t shooting people. But unlike race riots that could probably happen anywhere.

    But in each of those places something was missing, winter. I came back to Canada for the winter. It is bred in the bone.

    But despite the fact Edmonton was the place I’ve enjoyed living the most I get if you aren’t the sort of person who thinks a crisp -40 winter day is the perfect time to go for a long hike Edmonton may not be the place for you.

    So when I am looking for trades the Oilers could make and free agents they could sign I am looking for boys from the prairies, born here, played hockey here. For older players I look for wives from the snow and ice. Even if Edmonton isn’t their first choice living there won’t freak them out and disrupt domestic harmony.

    No place is perfect. And any home town is what you make of it. But familiarity while it may breed contempt, breeds security as you have kids and age.

  113. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ryan:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I don’t think that’s entirely fair.

    Winnipeg and Buffalo are less desirable places to live and I don’t see either of those teams paper cutting themselves to death on every contract like we do.

    As much as I have no issue with the Drake contract, Chia clearly overpays on contracts. I really doubt the player would have turned down 1.3.

  114. Side says:

    Visually better:
    This team is run by donkeys.

    Made a poll on Twitter: who would you rather have?

    Eberle, pouliot, pitlick, slepyshev

    Or

    Strome, kassian, Caggiula, Aberg.

    Hint: if anyone chooses the second you need to have a sit down with yourself and really reflect on some things

    I see the Eberle and Strome connection/comparison…

    The rest of the names seem pretty random..

    Kassian was not brought in to replace Pouliot.

    Cagguila was not brought in to replace Pitlick.

    Aberg was not brought in to replace Slepy.

  115. texmex says:

    LMHF#1,

    Why would they buyout Gryba? He has one year left at 900K which can be buried in the minors for zero cap hit assuming he is not picked up on waivers.

    If he is bought out, the Oilers carry a 300K cap hit for the next two years. And based on the Caggs convo, and extra 300K against the cap is unthinkable.

  116. Oilin4 says:

    LMHF#1: Bad contract when it was signed….there is a rather discernible pattern with this GM.

    Why!? They can bury the entire contract in the minors without cap consequence. Why buy him out and eat part of the cap the next two years? *Facepalm*

  117. LMHF#1 says:

    texmex:
    LMHF#1,

    Why would they buyout Gryba? He has one year left at 900K which can be buried in the minors for no cost assuming he is not picked up on waivers.

    If he is bought out, the Oilers carry a 300K cap hit for the next two years. And based on the Caggs convo, and extra 300K against the cap is unthinkable.

    I have no idea why they’d do that…But the signing was bad when it was made this is just another reminder of that.

    The amount of stinker contracts where the ink wasn’t even dry yet is ridiculous.

  118. LMHF#1 says:

    Oilin4: Why!? They can bury the entire contract in the minors without cap consequence. Why buy him out and eat part of the cap the next two years? *Facepalm*

    Hell if I know…I’m not defending a buyout…just reminding that the contract is another mark on the GMs record.He can’t evaluate and sign appropriate players. Commits to his guys and then regrets and compounds the error.

    Thankfully Gryba didn’t get Russell money…but same idea.

  119. Doug McLachlan says:

    Younger Oil: Hinostroza just got the exact same contract as Caggiula.

    Same age, got 25 points in 50 games (0.5 PPG) compared to Caggiula’s 20 points in 67 games (0.3 PPG).

    Caggiula shouldn’t have gotten more than $750k, he’s a replacement level player.

    Signing a plug and play for league minimum and using the extra $1Mto help sign our more valuable RFAs would be far, far more beneficial to the team.

    These little (and big) mistakes really, really add up.

    You see it’s interesting that you make this comparison as I noted that Caggulia garnered 13 goals to Hinostroza’s 7 goals. Goals get the $.

    Matt Cane’s model, which seems to be anchoring our collective contention that Caggulia was overpaid by $200K, predicts Hinostroza’s contract at $1.148M so by that process Chicago just made about a $350K overpay.

    I get that everything Chia has touched is garbage but Hinostraza may not be the hill to die on.

  120. npanciroli says:

    godot10,

    Yay for me too. I think JP is the Hanifin range and you lose Lucic.

    Problem is the winger depth needs to be fixed somewhere. This is where Klefbom going for a winger scares me or another bad FA contrat.

  121. treevojo says:

    Ronaldo is ridiculous

  122. RonnieB says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    OriginalPouzar,
    Poll for the Group

    Freidman brought up Lucic and JP for Hanafin again.

    How do you vote

    Yay or Nay?

    Yay.

    However that deal makes no sense for either team. The Oilers already have 4 LHD on the NHL roster and are weak at forward and RHD. Unless another deal is in hand to move a LHD elsewhere to address their weaknesses…
    Carolina has an embarassment of riches at forward and (to a lesser extent) at RHD, while Hanifin is one of just 2 LHD on their NHL roster. Why would they want to add 2 more forwards at the cost of a star LHD where they are lacking depth ?

    Edit: Should have said doesn’t meet needs rather than makes no sense because it obviously makes sense for the Oilers.

  123. Harpers Hair says:

    Woogie63: Ok 25 .2% overspent adds up.
    But
    1. Klefbom, Larsson and Khaira would represent conservatively $2M in under paying
    2. The Cap goes up $2M every two years
    3. Oilers are one of 10ish team that can spend all the way to the max of the cap.

    This is contact is definitely in the zone.

    Let’s not make a Caggiula contract into everything PC does is terrible story.

    Draisaitl is arguably overpaid by about $1M as is Koskinen. Once you add Kassian and Drake to the pile further overpays to Nurse and/or Strome you can get yourself in serious trouble especially dragging around a $6M spent force on your third line.

  124. JimmyV1965 says:

    Younger Oil: Hinostroza just got the exact same contract as Caggiula.

    Same age, got 25 points in 50 games (0.5 PPG) compared to Caggiula’s 20 points in 67 games (0.3 PPG).

    Caggiula shouldn’t have gotten more than $750k, he’s a replacement level player.

    Signing a plug and play for league minimum and using the extra $1Mto help sign our more valuable RFAs would be far, far more beneficial to the team.

    These little (and big) mistakes really, really add up.

    Is there really they much difference between the two players? In their careers, Hinostroza has 1 more point in 20 less games. The Drake has 7 more goals. To me they both look like young players trying to establish themselves. Both teams obviously like their guy. Yet you think one is fine at 1.5 and the other should take a pay cut for league min.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99: Not happening unless we buy out Sekera due to post-injury decline concerns, and even that has two $2.6M seasons that would be tough to swallow.

    Russell and Lucic can’t be bought out, too onerous down the road.

    People rip on the Pouliot buyout but it’s only $1,333,333 per year, and as we saw, you can’t get a Caggiula for that. LOL

    The Russell buyout provides considerable cap savings in 2 of the 3 years and the one year it does not is the potential lockout year.

    Sekera is a much much better d-man than Russell, even at 80% and a buyout should not be considered this off-season. If he turns out to only be 50% then a buyout could be considered next off-season.

    Not to mention, the Russell NMC will be alive for the expansion draft whereas the Sekera NMC will not.

    There is not real argument, in my opinion, to buyout Seekra over Russell (or to dispose of Sekera over Russell).

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    As an aside, I can’t remember if it was Friedman or Stauffer but one of them mentioned that Gryba could be bought out – I think it was Friedman.

  127. JimmyV1965 says:

    LMHF#1: Hell if I know…I’m not defending a buyout…just reminding that the contract is another mark on the GMs record.He can’t evaluate and sign appropriate players. Commits to his guys and then regrets and compounds the error.

    Thankfully Gryba didn’t get Russell money…but same idea.

    I think OP said it best. Why do you care about the Gryba contract? The only three people who should care are the player, his agent and Katz. For everyone else, it means zero.

  128. commonfan29 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Elliot Friedman just stated on Oilers Now that the Oilers have been clear that they are not going to “give up a ransom” to get rid of the contract.

    I’ll be impressed if they come through with an actual hockey trade. It seems overly optimistic to me.

    Could be that he’ll just have to come back this fall and play better.

  129. Doug McLachlan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As an aside, I can’t remember if it was Friedman or Stauffer but one of them mentioned that Gryba could be bought out – I think it was Friedman.

    I love Elliot Friedman and think he is one of the most dialed in of the “insiders” in the business with the possible exception of “the Bobfather” himself. That said, I don’t think he has an intimate knowledge of Eric Gryba’s capfriendly situation when he calls in to the Edmonton portion of his cross-country Friday afternoon radio hits.

    Didn’t hear the exchange but would be stunned if this wasn’t just a spit balling session that, given the over-arching “Chia is a moron” narrative, is being blown up here.

  130. Doug McLachlan says:

    JimmyV1965: I think OP said it best. Why do you care about the Gryba contract? The only three people who should care are the player, his agent and Katz. For everyone else, it means zero.

    Correct.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    – NHL players don’t grow on trees.He got a $150K raise.This is how hockey salaries work

    I am definitely not getting worked up about this contract, I mean, what’s the point? We knew he was going to be re-signed. We knew is was going to be apx $1.25M.

    I did want to point out, for accuracy, that the above likely isn’t quite accurate as I’m guessing he didn’t vest most of his $425K in performance bonuses.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: He would not be a free agent until August 15th.

    Not true.

    The August 15 date only applies to college players.

    He would have gone back in the draft if he wasn’t signed by the acquiring team by the deadline.

    In these cases, the team allows the potential trading partner to speak with the player/his agent about signing before the trade is consummated.

  133. YKOil says:

    JimmyV1965: I think OP said it best. Why do you care about the Gryba contract? The only three people who should care are the player, his agent and Katz. For everyone else, it means zero.

    Depends. Right now we know it can be buried with zero cap consequence. If bought out – does the remainder count against the cap?

    That is the only thing that matters. If it counts then don’t buy it out. If it doesn’t count then, by all means, buy it out.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I fundamentally disagree. I won’t argue with you (haven’t time) but I’ll leave you with this:

    Caggiula’s 0.87ppg (5v5) with Strome (his likely center) puts him at 430th best forward in the league this year… and there are only 372 full-time positions available (12 x 31).
    His 1.16ppg total (including significant time with McDavid and Draisaitl) put him at 350th of 372 – so BELOW AVERAGE 4TH LINER PRODUCTION RATE. And he isn’t good at defence either – his 3.09 GA/60 was 443rd for forwards this year.

    So his offence, including time one 1st and 2nd line, is below average for a 4th line player.
    His offense not including time on 1st and 2nd line is about “AHL call-up” level.
    His defense overall is about “AHL call-up” level.

    He may be a 4th liner, but he’s not a good one. $1.5M is simply too much.

    I never said he should be signed and that he should be signed to the amount I stated – I said we knew it was going to happen.

    This contract is almost exactly what should have been expected – that doesn’t mean we have to agree with its terms (or its signing to start with), however, it was all but a certainty that he was going to be signed and to a contract in this neighborhood.

    Agree with it or not, I can’t imagine this contract has come as a surprise to anyone that follows the team intently.

  135. Yeti says:

    ArmchairGM: He may be a 4th liner, but he’s not a good one. $1.5M is simply too much.

    IMO re-signing Pakarinen would have made a better fit as a true fourth-liner who could PK.

  136. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not true.

    The August 15 date only applies to college players.

    He would have gone back in the draft if he wasn’t signed by the acquiring team by the deadline.

    In these cases, the team allows the potential trading partner to speak with the player/his agent about signing before the trade is consummated.

    Brandon Hickey was a college player. He played 4 years at Boston U. The team that drafted him out of Tier II junior retains his rights till his graduating class graduates…i.e. August 15th 2018 for a player drafted and committed to college in 2014.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=152152

  137. Jordan says:

    Speculation:

    I think that the extra money and gifted playing time may be due to agreements made when Drake agreed to become Oilers property.

    I think this is about Chia/Oilers mgmt keeping their word.

    Not about the player, about reputation.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Brandon Hickey was a college player.He played 4 years at Boston U.The team that drafted him out of Tier II junior retains his rights till his graduating class graduates…i.e. August 15th 2018 for a player drafted and committed to college in 2014.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=152152

    I don’t know what this has to do with Adam Mascherin.

    If the Oilers acquired him, he would have had to be signed prior to June 1 or else he would have gone back in the draft, as he is. August 15 is a meaningless deadline for Adam Mascherin

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    Speculation:

    I think that the extra money and gifted playing time may be due to agreements made when Drake agreed to become Oilers property.

    I think this is about Chia/Oilers mgmt keeping their word.

    Not about the player, about reputation.

    Firstly, I don’t believe the verbal that he has playing time guaranteed in the first instance.

    Secondly, I can’t imagine any sort of agreement, even unofficial, to re-sign the player to a minimum amount 2 years down the road.

  140. Truth says:

    JimmyV1965: That Masherin thing is a head scratcher. Surely some GM would have offered a fourth round pick.And where does Masherin stack up compared to Marody, who we gave up a third for?

    Mascherin would have been approached by any teams looking to acquire him to ensure he would sign (Marody, as an example). The odd thing is there was most likely a long list of suitors willing to give FLA something (they would be absolutely stupid not to offer at least something marginally worse than they are willing to now spend on him at the draft), and Mascherin presumably decided to not sign with any of them. He had at least some choice on his destination before. Now, he can be picked up by any NHL team at the draft.

    The only realistic scenario I see is that he has a few teams in mind he’s willing to sign with and none of them made pitches to FLA to acquire him. This would also assume that he or his agent has notified teams who he is and who he is not willing to sign with prior to the draft. Going off that huge assumption, coupled with the assumption the Oilers would have already made a pitch to FLA to get him (and he didn’t want to sign), I would bet the Oilers do not draft him.

  141. digger50 says:

    Truth: Mascherin would have been approached by any teams looking to acquire him to ensure he would sign (Marody, as an example). The odd thing is there was most likely a long list of suitors willing to give FLA something (they would be absolutely stupid not to offer at least something marginally worse than they are willing to now spend on him at the draft), and Mascherin presumably decided to not sign with any of them.He had at least some choice on his destination before.Now, he can be picked up by any NHL team at the draft.

    The only realistic scenario I see is that he has a few teams in mind he’s willing to sign with and none of them made pitches to FLA to acquire him.This would also assume that he or his agent has notified teams who he is and who he is not willing to sign with prior to the draft.Going off that huge assumption, coupled with the assumption the Oilers would have already made a pitch to FLA to get him (and he didn’t want to sign), I would bet the Oilers do not draft him.

    Very reasonable assessment.

    And I might add that the clubs that are on his list may not be too enthralled with his attitude.

  142. godot10 says:

    Truth: Mascherin would have been approached by any teams looking to acquire him to ensure he would sign (Marody, as an example). The odd thing is there was most likely a long list of suitors willing to give FLA something (they would be absolutely stupid not to offer at least something marginally worse than they are willing to now spend on him at the draft), and Mascherin presumably decided to not sign with any of them.He had at least some choice on his destination before.Now, he can be picked up by any NHL team at the draft.

    The only realistic scenario I see is that he has a few teams in mind he’s willing to sign with and none of them made pitches to FLA to acquire him.This would also assume that he or his agent has notified teams who he is and who he is not willing to sign with prior to the draft.Going off that huge assumption, coupled with the assumption the Oilers would have already made a pitch to FLA to get him (and he didn’t want to sign), I would bet the Oilers do not draft him.

    Florida would have had to give permission to any team to talk to Mascherin, or else it would have been tampering.

  143. McSorley33 says:

    bendelson,

    Just curious: I predicted 8 x $5M for Nurse in Kinger’s Poll. Has anyone gone higher?
    We all know the overpay is coming… whether reflected in a long term deal or a bridge.
    I can’t have the ‘least’ confidence in Chia’s contract negotiation skills, on this entire site!!
    Anybody?
    *************************************************************
    Peter Chiarelli?

  144. VOR says:

    If the Mascherin camp is to be believed Florida did a terrible job of communicating with him, going a full year without speaking to him at one point. He felt utterly unwanted. He retaliated with the only means at his disposal, informing the Panthers he wouldn’t sign with them and would re-enter the draft.

    What Florida did when so informed is beyond bizarre. They did nothing at all. Thus, vaporizing a 2nd round pick. Maybe teams were put off by his “attitude” since NHL GMs don’t like any player who speaks out of turn.

    It is well reported that Mascherin spent the years post draft running his own development program working diligently on his skating and defence. His skating is unusual in that he has great edges, tremendous balance and agility but poor acceleration and high end speed. He has always been a willing back checker but lost too many battles in the slot and low in his own end to be considered a 200 foot player. His speed has improved markedly post draft and he wins a lot more of those defensive battles.

    If he really initiated these changes himself (which seems to be Mascherin’s claim) with no input from Florida he is a kid I would definitely want on my team.

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    Just curious:I predicted 8 x $5M for Nurse in Kinger’s Poll.Has anyone gone higher?
    We all know the overpay is coming… whether reflected in a long term deal or a bridge.
    I can’t have the ‘least’ confidence in Chia’s contract negotiation skills, on this entire site!!
    Anybody?

    I think I did $5.2 x 8

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Florida would have had to give permission to any team to talk to Mascherin, or else it would have been tampering.

    Of course, that was implied – why wouldn’t they give permission when asked?

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    OK gang…

    WAY off tangent and miles from nowhere, but I’ll ask nevertheless:
    If song #1 is ‘Money’ by the Flying Lizards…
    And song #2 is ‘Back In Flesh’ by Wall of Voodoo…
    What is song #3?

    “What is: whatever comes next on Katz’ ipod shuffle”

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Everyone saying Caggiula is a replacement level player are correct or are slightly over rating him.

  149. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: I’d put him above Benson. He’s more skilled and should get the push.

    Not sure how you think he is more skilled than Benson, and hockey smarts of Benson are high. A full summer of healthy training should also help him immensely.

  150. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: I fundamentally disagree. I won’t argue with you (haven’t time) but I’ll leave you with this:

    Caggiula’s 0.87ppg (5v5) with Strome (his likely center) puts him at 430th best forward in the league this year… and there are only 372 full-time positions available (12 x 31).
    His 1.16ppg total (including significant time with McDavid and Draisaitl) put him at 350th of 372 – so BELOW AVERAGE 4TH LINER PRODUCTION RATE. And he isn’t good at defence either – his 3.09 GA/60 was 443rd for forwards this year.

    So his offence, including time one 1st and 2nd line, is below average for a 4th line player.
    His offense not including time on 1st and 2nd line is about “AHL call-up” level.
    His defense overall is about “AHL call-up” level.

    He may be a 4th liner, but he’s not a good one. $1.5M is simply too much.

    This is good information

  151. Oilman99 says:

    Yeti: IMO re-signing Pakarinen would have made a better fit as a true fourth-liner who could PK.

    Pakman couldn’t score, you need a fourth line that can contribute. Caggs is being looked at as a third liner.

  152. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    If the Mascherin camp is to be believed Florida did a terrible job of communicating with him, going a full year without speaking to him at one point. He felt utterly unwanted. He retaliated with the only means at his disposal, informing the Panthers he wouldn’t sign with them and would re-enter the draft.

    What Florida did when so informed is beyond bizarre. They did nothing at all. Thus, vaporizing a 2nd round pick. Maybe teams were put off by his “attitude” since NHL GMs don’t like any player who speaks out of turn.

    It is well reported that Mascherin spent the years post draft running his own development program working diligently on his skating and defence. His skating is unusual in that he has great edges, tremendous balance and agility but poor acceleration and high end speed. He has always been a willing back checker but lost too many battles in the slot and low in his own end to be considered a 200 foot player. His speed has improved markedly post draft and he wins a lot more of those defensive battles.

    If he really initiated these changes himself (which seems to be Mascherin’s claim) with no input from Florida he is a kid I would definitely want on my team.

    Fax machines also confuse Dale Tallon.

  153. Oilman99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think I did $5.2 x 8

    Bridge deal before big bucks and tenure, the guy needs to prove his progress is still on an upward curve. Extra room is needed to find a top sixer for Drai.

  154. Munny says:

    VOR,

    There are two possibilities:

    1. Mascherin was so pissed at the Panthers he was unwilling to be traded and give them ANY asset in return

    2. He wanted to roll the dice and see if he could get taken in the first round, get a bigger contract. Costs him nothing personally to try, and can’t really be any worse off if it doesn’t work.

  155. Munny says:

    Oilman99: Pakman couldn’t score, you need a fourth line that can contribute. Caggs is being looked at as a third liner.

    Doubtful the Oil have him ranked higher than Aberg, IMO. Or at least I hope not. Which places him on the 4th line. I expect the Oil view him as a 4th who can play up the line-up or fill at C.

    (And that’s assuming they can unload Lucic)

  156. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Fax machines also confuse Dale Tallon.

    I have to admit the Mascherin Florida Fiasco reminds me of Riley Nash and the Oilers. This makes me sad. Which makes it hard for me to laugh. Though if we were doing NewYorker cartoons of the worst NHL GM screw ups of all time Dale Tallon in a Chicago jerseyreading the manual for a fax machine would be right up there.

  157. texmex says:

    Man, Don Sweeney must not read this blog. Signed a second year player with 3 goals and 12 apples to a 2 year 2.8million dollar deal.

    Though, this is Chia’s fault cause he signed caggs first

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    VOR,

    There are two possibilities:

    1. Mascherin was so pissed at the Panthers he was unwilling to be traded and give them ANY asset in return

    2. He wanted to roll the dice and see if he could get taken in the first round, get a bigger contract.Costs him nothing personally to try, and can’t really be any worse off if it doesn’t work.

    There is a 3rd possibilty:

    The player wanted a max (or close enough to matter) contract or else he wouldn’t sign.

    Large ELC bonuses impact the cap.

    No one who kicked the tires were willing to do that.

    The player is betting they will be selected high enough to ask for that if they go back in the draft.

  159. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR: I have to admit the Mascherin Florida Fiasco reminds me of Riley Nash and the Oilers. This makes me sad. Which makes it hard for me to laugh. Though if we were doing NewYorker cartoons of the worst NHL GM screw ups of all time Dale Tallon in a Chicago jerseyreading the manual for a fax machine would be right up there.

    They got 3 Cups.

    If he didn’t shit the bed it could have been more.

    Crazy.

  160. Munny says:

    texmex:
    Man, Don Sweeney must not read this blog.Signed a second year player with 3 goals and 12 apples to a 2 year 2.8million dollar deal.

    Though, this is Chia’s fault cause he signed caggs first

    He’s a defenseman. And still cheaper than Cags.

  161. texmex says:

    Munny,

    So it’s a good deal for Grzelcyck?

    I’ll be interested to hear your thoughts when Benning is signed.

  162. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: There is a 3rd possibilty:

    The player wanted a max (or close enough to matter) contract or else he wouldn’t sign.

    Large ELC bonuses impact the cap.

    No one who kicked the tires were willing to do that.

    The player is betting they will be selected high enough to ask for that if they go back in the draft.

    Which is precisely #2 in my post, lol.

  163. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    He delegated that job to someone else in the organization and got burned. Still his fault ultimately but he’s not the idiot that many here would like to portray him as.

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: He’s a defenseman.And still cheaper than Cags.

    Percisely?

  165. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Fax machines also confuse Dale Tallon.

    Context seems to confuse you. GM’s don’t send faxes.

  166. Bling says:

    Not a fan of the DC deal. Bad underlying numbers.

    He’s not getting PP time or McDavid/Draisaitl minutes next season, and he won’t P.K.

    I don’t mind Kass at 1.9, because I think he can be a good EV producer and be a bit of a deterrent. Also, he can’t take draws.

    What is Caggiula bringing, exactly?

    On the upside, if JP/KY/Marody et al start taking his icetime, it should be an easy contract to move.

  167. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    He delegated that job to someone else in the organization and got burned. Still his fault ultimately but he’s not the idiot that many here would like to portray him as.

    2 things:

    1) If you are in charge you own it all. You know this.

    2) *looks at what VGK got from FLA so they could protect 4 Dmen AND they’re shopping one of those four*

  168. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 2 things:

    1) If you are in charge you own it all. You know this.

    2) *looks at what VGK got from FLA so they could protect 4 Dmen AND they’re shopping one of those four*

    I forget where I heard it, some podcast probably, but Talon was ordered by the owner to get rid of the Smith contract, no matter what the cost.

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    There are rumblings tonight that MON will be acquiring Max Domi….Alex Galchenyuk is part of the return. More to come.

    That’s a tweet from Freidman

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: I forget where I heard it, some podcast probably, but Talon was ordered by the owner to get rid of the Smith contract, no matter what the cost.

    So Tallon figures giving one of his best scorers on a value contract is what to pay for to get them to do that?

  171. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965: I forget where I heard it, some podcast probably, but Talon was ordered by the owner to get rid of the Smith contract, no matter what the cost.

    Yes….things aren’t always as simple as they seem.

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    There are rumblings tonight that MON will be acquiring Max Domi….Alex Galchenyuk is part of the return. More to come.

    That’s a tweet from Freidman

    And it’s done:

    @CanadiensMTL
    The Canadiens have acquired forward Max Domi from the Arizona Coyotes tonight, in return for Alex Galchenyuk. #GoHabsGo

  173. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Yes….things aren’t always as simple as they seem.

    There’s now about 8 years of people making excuses for this guy.

    It’s always something other than the guy.

    Eventually you develop a past.

  174. T0ML says:

    Now can we all agree that Chai might not be the worst GM in the league ?

    I take Chucky every day over Domi for my money.

  175. Richard S.S. says:

    If the Cap is increased by a strong 31st Team and a slightly better economy, which I think it should, it might be anywhere, with the NHLPA’s 5% added. With a mild increase:
    $75.1 (NHL) + 5% = $78.855Cap.
    $75.2 (NHL) + 5% = $78.96Cap.
    $75.3 (NHL) + 5% = $79.065 Cap.
    $75.4 (NHL) + 5% = $79.17 Cap.
    $75.5 (NHL) + 5% = $79.275 Cap.
    With an average increase:
    $75.6 (NHL) + 5% = $79.38 Cap.
    $75.7 (NHL) + 5% = $79.485 Cap.
    $75.8 (NHL) + 5% = $79.59 Cap.
    $75.9 (NHL) + 5% = $79..695 Cap.
    $76.0 (NHL) + 5% = $$79.8 Cap.
    With a good increase:
    $76.1 (NHL) + 5% = $79.905 Cap.
    $76.2 (NHL) + 5% = $80.1 Cap.
    $76.3 (NHL) + 5% = $80.115 Cap.
    $76.4 (NHL) + 5% = $80.22 Cap.
    $76.5 (NHL) + 5% = $80.325 Cap.
    With a big increase which might not be possible:
    $76.6 (NHL) + 5% = $80.43 Cap.
    $76.7 (NHL) + 5% = $80.535 Cap.
    $76.8 (NHL) + 5% = $80.64 Cap.
    $76.9 (NHL) + 5% = $80.745 Cap.
    $77.0 (NHL) + 5% = $80.85
    I cannot see the NHL increasing the $75.0 Million Cap by more than $2.0 Million – the Canadian Dollar went up a bit, the Economy got a little better and Las Vegas was a great success. Escore is always an issue with the NHLPA, so I don’t think they’ll go the full 5%. I might be wrong on how good it was, but it wasn’t ($82.0 Cap) that good.

  176. innercitysmytty says:

    T0ML,

    Agreed on the surface, but when you look at the contract status of each player, not so sure I would.

  177. Bling says:

    That’s a bit of a weird trade for the Habs.

    Galchenyuk’s biggest sin was being draft #2 overall and not being a first line centre, but he’s a pretty sick player in his own right, and I think he’s a solid bet to outperform that contract.

    Domi has regressed and is just a year younger.

  178. OmJo says:

    Oilers give Cagguila 1.5*2 but wouldn’t give Pitlick 1.0*3.

    What am I missing here?

    We have 3 million dollars in cap space tied in 2 4th line players.

    Imagine what Benning and Nurse are going to fleece Chiarelli for.

  179. OmJo says:

    How many of Caggiula’s 13 goals came on the wing with McDavid? Genuine question.

  180. OmJo says:

    Bling:
    That’s a bit of a weird trade for the Habs.

    Galchenyuk’s biggest sin was being draft #2 overall and not being a first line centre, but he’s a pretty sick player in his own right, and I think he’s a solid bet to outperform that contract.

    Domi has regressed and is just a year younger.

    His biggest sin was being drafted by the Habs.

    Of course he isn’t a first line C, he’s a bloody LW forward… Trying to turn Galchenyuk into a C is like … trying to turn Cagguila into a C. Well damn.

    The similarities between the Habs and Oilers incompetence is uncanny…

  181. OmJo says:

    T0ML:
    Now can we all agree that Chai might not be the worst GM in the league ?

    I take Chucky every day over Domi for my money.

    Wait until he trades Lucic and the 1st for Phaneuf :,)

  182. JimmyV1965 says:

    OmJo:
    How many of Caggiula’s 13 goals came on the wing with McDavid? Genuine question.

    I believe 3

  183. JimmyV1965 says:

    OmJo:
    Oilers give Cagguila 1.5*2 but wouldn’t give Pitlick 1.0*3.

    What am I missing here?

    We have 3 million dollars in cap space tied in 2 4th line players.

    Imagine what Benning and Nurse are going to fleece Chiarelli for.

    I’m not sure if there’s a big difference between the two players. When the Drake ends this contract he’ll be basically the same age Pitlick was when he signed his deal with Dallas last year. The Drake has 38 pts in 127 games. Pitlick has 41 pts in 138 games. Pitlick is 18 months older. I’m sure Pitlick is a much more well rounded player today, but who knows in two years.

  184. jm363561 says:

    Visually better:
    This team is run by donkeys.

    Made a poll on Twitter: who would you rather have?

    Eberle, pouliot, pitlick, Slepyshev FOR $13m’ish
    Or

    Strome, kassian, Caggiula, Aberg FOR $8m’ish.

    Hint: if anyone chooses the second you need to have a sit down with yourself and really reflect on some things

    Hint: this might some sense if you included the $. Added above. Sums up my view of Twitter.

  185. YKOil says:

    Horrible trade by Montreal imo. Expect Pacioretty is being traded for the centre they need.

  186. Wilde says:

    T0ML:
    Now can we all agree that Chai might not be the worst GM in the league ?

    I take Chucky every day over Domi for my money.

    ??

    Bergevin got more for Galchenyuk than Chiarelli got for Eberle

  187. v4ance says:

    David Pagnotta @TheFourthPeriod

    Meant to tweet earlier, got sidetracked, but on our report on Oilers, team entertained calls on Talbot during season and he’s being discussed again. Whether deal manifests, we’ll see, but he’s been discussed as Klefbom has.

    So what exactly is the plan for goaltending??? Trade Talbot and turn over the #1 job to the totally unproven Koskinen or the unready Skinner?

    What if they traded Talbot earlier in the season? Hand the net over to the ineffective Montoya or the untrusted Broissoit?

    It’s not just one transaction but ALL the moves taken as a whole that make me conclude that the Oilers management led by Chiarelli is totally inept. They keep making decisions based on an internal logic that just doesn’t stand up as the optimal uses of assets or resources.

  188. rickithebear says:

    We lack goals from wingers.and as a team
    DC evg/shg Numbers around #190 fwd
    Total goal numbers around 200
    Average of 195 Upr #7 fwd.
    The 195th forward makes?

    2.4M

    Not 1.5M

  189. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: ??

    Bergevin got more for Galchenyuk than Chiarelli got for Eberle

    Ouch. It hurts, but absolutely true.

  190. JimmyV1965 says:

    v4ance:
    David Pagnotta @TheFourthPeriod


    Meant to tweet earlier, got sidetracked, but on our report on Oilers, team entertained calls on Talbot during season and he’s being discussed again. Whether deal manifests, we’ll see, but he’s been discussed as Klefbom has.

    So what exactly is the plan for goaltending???Trade Talbot and turn over the #1 job to the totally unproven Koskinen or the unready Skinner?

    What if they traded Talbot earlier in the season?Hand the net over to the ineffective Montoya or the untrusted Broissoit?

    It’s not just one transaction but ALL the moves taken as a whole that make me conclude that the Oilers management led by Chiarelli is totally inept.They keep making decisions based on an internal logic that just doesn’t stand up as the optimal uses of assets or resources.

    I think this takes quote of the day. Chia sucks not only for the moves he makes, but for the moves you think he is thinking about. I had a dream last night that he traded Kassian for Karlsson. You gotta give him props for that one.

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    My goodness the rumors out there are getting ridiculous – now there are rumors out there about Talbot, Nuge, Puljijarvi, Klefbom, etc. all being on the block.

    Of course, none of these are coming from the more respected sources (McKenzie, Friedman, LeBrun) – they are only really talking about Lucic.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lucic moved in the next month but I would be surprised if any of the other players mentioned are moved.

    I couldn’t imagine Talbot being moved without a corresponding move for a tender acquisition being made.

  192. Bling says:

    Wilde: ??

    Bergevin got more for Galchenyuk than Chiarelli got for Eberle

    Doesn’t make it a good trade.

  193. Lowetide says:

    The Habs made a ‘two years from free agency for a player under control’ trade, similar to Eberle for Strome. Eberle has one year left, Islanders may not sign him. Same as Galchenyuk. I still wouldn’t have made either deal, but there you go.

  194. meanashell11 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    No, it’s not true. Domi was a healthy scratch a lot. Strome is a better player. The sin here is would MTL have taken Kassian for Galy.

  195. Fuhr and Lowething. says:

    meanashell11:
    JimmyV1965,

    No, it’s not true. Domi was a healthy scratch a lot. Strome is a better player. The sin here is would MTL have taken Kassian for Galy.

    Umm, didn’t the Canadiens trade Kassian to us for Ben Sievens? You think they would have taken him back for Gally?

    Interesting.

  196. JimmyV1965 says:

    meanashell11:
    JimmyV1965,

    No, it’s not true. Domi was a healthy scratch a lot. Strome is a better player. The sin here is would MTL have taken Kassian for Galy.

    Domi was also hot down the stretch. Something like 13 pts in last 13 games.

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