Draft Post No. 4: 10 Items or Less

In past summers, the Oilers have telegraphed exits. We knew in 2016 Hall was in play, certainly by the time the name Lucic leaked. A year ago, we were running Strome’s numbers against Eberle’s 10 days before the deal was done. This year? Milan Lucic. And?

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift for Father’s Day and get a free t-shirt! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
  • Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

ASKED AND ANSWERED

  1. Who is a lock to be traded? I have a list of players who could be in play, plus the pick at No. 10, but honestly I think this is going to be a summer where the Oilers look to win a few hockey trades.
  2. Who do you think is in play? We know Lucic is the big ticket in terms of money, the news is out all over town. He is up to No. 11 on the TSN Trade Board, the record company has a lot of money in promotions and there’s a lot of buzz in the northeast and California. Alan Freed is playing the hell out of it in Cleveland.
  3. Salary dump on Lucic? Pierre Lebrun says hockey trade. Chiarelli can’t afford to bleed any more talent, but upending that big contract would be fabulous. If not, they’ll have to wait for the lockout and the free buyout if things continue down the current road.
  4. Who are the other candidates? I think there are several players who could be pried away, plus the pick. We’ve talked about them, Oscar Klefbom, Jesse Puljujarvi, maybe Zack Kassian or Ryan Strome. The Oilers don’t have a large number of players who could fetch a big piece.
  5. How much currency does Klefbom have? A lot of value. If the Oilers are going to make a blockbuster with a roster player, he’s the man.
  6. What about Jesse Puljujarvi? There might be a market for him but I think JP could catch a break because his value isn’t high. We’ll see. Carolina seems a welcoming destination, maybe the Hurricanes feel Aho can unlock him.
  7. The Fourth Period says Nuge and Talbot are being discussed. I read that, interesting idea to trade Talbot but I would stay the course. Unless someone overwhelms with an offer, Talbot is the best option I see. There are no obvious replacements in free agency.
  8. So a misguided rumor? Well, one of the things PC had in Boston was a true No. 1, like one of the best. If there’s a trade in place for Phillip Grubauer then maybe there’s a Talbot trade. I doubt it happens.
  9. Is it possible? Of course. The Oilers have a limited inventory, difficult to sell ‘savings down every aisle’ when you only have 12 items or less. If Talbot is a key element in a deal that brings Colton Parayko, that’s a deal PC makes. But you need Grubauer or other to replace Talbot. Highly unlikely.
  10. And trading Nuge? Madness. Edmonton has McDavid-Nuge as an emerging pair, the goal at forward should be finding a second for Leon. Max Pacioretty, Jeff Skinner, Phil Kessell.
  11. Who is the biggest name they’ll pursue? I assume they’ll call about Erik Karlsson.
  12. What do you think of the Habs-Coyotes trade? The Habs made a ‘two years from free agency for a player under control’ trade, similar to Eberle for Strome. Eberle has one year left, Islanders may not sign him. Same as Galchenyuk. I still wouldn’t have made either deal, but there you go.

ENTRY DRAFT 2018

Boisvert is a fabulous observer of prospects and his list (imo) tells the story of this year’s draft: After Dahlin, it’s wide open, baby. It’s like that episode of Seinfeld where Kramer maintains a certain section of highway. He takes the lines off his mile of the highway, thinking it will give people freedom, when it actually invites chaos. That’s what Friday night is going to be, in my opinion. When a team walks to the microphone and says “we select Ty Dellendrea” or “Ty Smith” there will be audible gasps. Followed by many and more. Cannot wait!

OILERS AT THE DRAFT ’18

The drafting order is final final now, it came down from the mountain last night. Edmonton will be selecting as follows:

  • First Round—No. 10 overall
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall
  • Fifth Round—No. 133 overall
  • Sixth Round—No. 164 overall
  • Seventh Round—No. 195 overall

SECOND LAST OILERS MOCK

  • First Round—No. 10 overall—R Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Steve Kournianois:Wahlstrom is a dominant power winger with elite puck skills, highlighted by a devastatingly accurate shot. He is one of the top goal scorers available for the draft. Source.
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall—RD Calen Addison, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). A quality offensive player who can pass like a demon. Good wheels. Smaller but effective and aggressive defensively.
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall—L Jakob Lauko, Chomutov (Czech). Burner with goal-scoring ability.
  • Fifth Round—No. 133 overall—RD Joey Keane, Barrie Colts (OHL). I’m on him now, he’s a fabulous puck mover with plenty of skill for the power play.
  • Sixth Round—No. 164 overall—L Jack Randl, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Another goal scorer, he’s an aggressive player.
  • Seventh Round—No. 195 overall—G Veini Vehviläinen, Karpat (Sm-Liiga). A fine season in the Finnish league (.925), good resume all down the line.

DRAFT ASKED AND ANSWERED

  1. You seem confident in this team at the draft table now. Yes, I think this team has some good things going on at the draft. Need to keep those picks, though.
  2. Do you see them doing more than they did a year ago? I think the pick at No. 10 is likely to be a better player than Kailer Yamamoto, so the possibility exists.
  3. Why so confident? The Oilers haven’t really told us how their scouting works since PC’s arrival, but they seem to have turned from a team constantly reaching to one who trust their board and aggressively pursue the best available. The only real wobble was third round 2016, other than that you can see the plan.
  4. If the consensus top 9 is gone (Dahlin, Svechkinov, Zadina, Hughes, Bouchard, Wahlstrom, Tkachuk, Dobson, Kotkaniemi) do you really think they’ll draft Ty Smith? I think they might, he’s an excellent prospect. That doesn’t mean they will.
  5. Of the nine names mentioned as being gone, which player would you most like to see fall to Edmonton? Well, assuming we can’t discuss Dahlin and Svechnikov, I’ll go with Zadina or Hughes. Of the late group, I’ll say Wahlstrom. They’re all terrific!
  6. Will you have the same draft coverage here this week? Wall to wall at The Athletic (there are so many stories over there right now, I’ll try to link them all this week) but I’ll have thoughts here, will post my final list again draft day and then “Harvest Moon” as well.
  7. Will Chiarelli trade the pick? In a way, he has to trade the pick. It’ll have great value when No. 10 arrives. I guess it’ll depend on how strongly the scouting staff argues for their player, but man it’s got to be tempting to trade No. 10 overall for someone who is a young plug and play and under control.
  8. Like Alex DeBrincat? Or Griffin Reinhart.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

82 Responses to "Draft Post No. 4: 10 Items or Less"

  1. Rondo says:

    1.Rasmus Dahlin

    2.Andrei Svechnikov

    3.Jesperi Kotkaniemi

    4.Noah Dobson

    5.Filip Zadina

    6.Brady Tkachuk

    7.Evan Bouchard

    8.Quinn Hughes

    9.Oliver Wahlstrom

    10.Barrett Hayton

    11.Vitali Kravtsov

    12.Adam Boqvist

    13.Ty Smith

  2. Mr DeBakey says:

    After Dahlin, it’s wide open, baby.

    Well, after Svechnikov.

    I haven’t spent much time on this year’s draft, just pecking around a bit.
    But last night I took a harder look at the names around the Oilers’ picks.

    I liked Dobson from the first, I don’t think he lasts til 10.
    Also, Wahlstrom looks fine, but ditto for him.
    Now I’m hoping Bouchard falls, this despite my severe case of Schremp-Gagner syndrome.

    Moving down:
    40 Benoit-Olivier Groulx or Ty Dallandrea
    71 Alec Regula or Jan Jenik
    102 Axel Andersson
    133 Matthew Struthers
    164 TBA
    195 TBA

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Things are getting silly now with the “rumours” – Lucic, Nuge, Klef, Jesse, Talbot, etc., all on the block.

    Of course, the legit sources (;Friedman, LeBrun, McKenzie, etc.) have only mentioned Lucic.

    I must remember, it’s simply the time of year where rumors abound and most of them are none sense.

    It’s not in realm of reasonableness to trade Talbot without a legit replacement t acquired – no it’s not reasonable to think we’ll pencil Koskinen in as the starter, not even Chia would do that.

  4. Hot Eire says:

    After Dahlin, it’s wide open, baby.

    Maybe according to Boisvert but Svechnikov is elite in my book and a clear no. 2 for this draft.

    I have Boqvist right there with Hughes so to me he’d be THE pick at 10. Risk is there but reward is a potential elite D imho.

    I would ‘reach’ for Gruden at 40 and would run to the podium if Lauko is still there at 71 but I think he’ll be gone.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    I mean, Talbot is not untradeable, I have heard that the Islanders are interested and I’d listen to a suggestion of trading him for something around one the Islanders 1st rounders or Pulock but only if Chiarelli has a subsequent move in place to replace him. Something like Grubauer – of course Grubauer is not established as a start but, then again, neither was Talbot when acquired – kind of similar to Grubauer.

  6. jtblack says:

    Of Max Domi’s 9 Goals last year; 4 were empty netters.

    I like what AZ is doing.

  7. jtblack says:

    I think PC knows he has 1 year to right the ship and he is willing to trade anybody if he feels it helps the team get to the playoffs.

    Could be a wild 2 weeks!

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Max P., P. Kessel, J. Skinner would all be fantastic on Drai’s wing – how exciting.

    On the other hand, with our current cap structure, we cannot afford a high priced/veteran/established winger in our top 6. With our current cap structure we need to find value contracts for the top 6 – this should be doable with graduating prospects.

    Sure, Max P. is somewhat cheap for this coming season but he’ll need to be re-signed at $6M plus and, if he doesn’t cost that much to re-sign, then he’s had a shitty year and we likely lost the trade.

    Of course, a Lucic trade without a contract coming back and minimal retention, changes the cap structure.

  9. Rondo says:

    Would be happy with Hayton at #10 and Nils Lunddkvist at #40.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whalstrom and Addison with our top 2 picks? Where do I sign up?

    I don’t imagine either will be available at 10 and 40 respectively.

  11. texmex says:

    2 x 3.15m AAV for Domi in Montreal.

    Prepare the pitch forks for stromes 3m+ contract.

  12. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    On the other hand, with our current cap structure, we cannot afford a high priced/veteran/established winger in our top 6.

    Sure, Max P. is somewhat cheap for this coming season but he’ll need to be re-signed at $6M plus and, if he doesn’t cost that much to re-sign, then he’s had a shitty year and we likely lost the trade.

    You should change your handle to Original Pou Pou

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, Kotkaniemi has replaced Boquist in the “consensus top 9”?

    I wonder what McKenzie is going to say about that on Monday (well McKenzie’s average of the list of 10 scouts).

    Will the Oilers really pass on Boquist for Ty Smith?

    I’ve read some wonderful things about Ty Smith so I’d be happy with him – how do we feel in 4 years if we have Ty Smith in the Ryan Ellis range of player and Adam Boquist is on the Islanders on the Karlsson level?

  14. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Whalstrom and Addison with our top 2 picks?Where do I sign up?

    I don’t imagine either will be available at 10 and 40 respectively.

    +1
    However,
    The Oilers have selected a winger in the 1st round two years running.
    I have zero faith in them finding a top 4Dman in the second round.
    I have some hope they could select a top 6 winger in the second round.
    I would pick the D man @ 10 & the F/C @ 40.
    I believe you and I are in agreement on this?

  15. leadfarmer says:

    I would scream like a 12 year old girl at a whatever 12 year old girls listen to concert if those were our picks!!

  16. Jethro Tull says:

    Pescador: You should change your handle to OriginalPou Pou

    https://youtu.be/QeF1JO7Ki8E

  17. Scungilli Slushy says:

    It would be risky to trade Talbot without a sure starter. I can see PC doing it if he could get Grubauer, he’s riverboaty enough.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Of Max Domi’s 9 Goals last year; 4 were empty netters.

    I like what AZ is doing.

    Last year AZ’s main C’s

    Stepan
    Dvorak (rookie)
    Richardson (33 years old)
    Domi/Cousins/Strome

    This year they will have:

    Galchenyuk
    Kruger
    Strome (full time)

    Merkely might finally make the jump too.

    Maybe they go:

    Stepan – Power v Power
    Galchenyk – 2nd line
    Strome/Dvorak – soft minutes
    Kruger – Checking

    That’s quite the improvement.

    Add to that a healthy Dcrops of:

    OEL-Demers
    Goligoski – Chychrun
    Hjarlmasson – ?

    Raanta

    That team should compete for a playoff spot if everyone (especially Raanta) stays healthy.

    Big weak spot is Goligoski. Was just putrid last year.

    Wonder if they stick with him or try to move him?

  19. Westchester Oil says:

    texmex,

    I like what Montreal has done. Domi is 23 and has averaged 50 pts per 82 games. Galchenyuk is a year older and has similar production. The Habs dumped a $4.9 mln contract and got equal production from a younger player at $3.15 mln. Domi was snake-bit for much of last year as his shooting percentage was way off – so Montreal is buying low.

    Strome is 2 years older than Domi and has averaged less than 40 points per season. If Domi is worth $3.15 mln, Strome is worth no more than $2.5 mln IMHO.

  20. Andy Dufresne says:

    “And trading Nuge? Madness. Edmonton has McDavid-Nuge as an emerging pair, the goal at forward should be finding a second for Leon. Max Pacioretty, Jeff Skinner, Phil Kessell.”

    You wouldnt consider a trade that brought us Ryan O’Reilly if it meant giving up Nuge?

    I would. And I like Nuge alot.

  21. Brantford Boy says:

    Rondo,

    I almost feel like you nailed this Rondo… up until the 10th…

  22. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agreed… Calen Addison is going somewhere between 25 and 35… just out of reach…

  23. Brantford Boy says:

    leadfarmer,

    Dude, don’t pretend you don’t know, you just admitted it like 2 days ago 😉

  24. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “And trading Nuge? Madness. Edmonton has McDavid-Nuge as an emerging pair, the goal at forward should be finding a second for Leon. Max Pacioretty, Jeff Skinner, Phil Kessell.”

    You wouldnt consider a trade that for Ryan O’Reilly if it meant giving up Nuge?

    I would. And I like Nuge alot.

    Nugent-Hopkins makes McDavid a 130 pt player, and a 55 goal scorer. McDavid makes Nugent-Hopkins a 85 pt player and a 30 goal scorer. They bring out the potential in each other

  25. Andy Dufresne says:

    “Will Chiarelli trade the pick? In a way, he has to trade the pick. It’ll have great value when No. 10 arrives. I guess it’ll depend on how strongly the scouting staff argues for their player, but man it’s got to be tempting to trade No. 10 overall for someone who is a young plug and play and under control.”

    So this is saying, that it would take balls/acumen/skill, to not trade the pick. That Chiarelli should be applauded if he keeps/makes the pick given the current situation he finds himself in? That it is what a smart guy that cares more about the long term health of the team, than his own personal short-term welfare would do?

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    As long as we’re blue-skying it…….I would like to wake up a week from Sunday with Hanafin, Whalstrom, Addison, Barrie, and an additional $6million dollars in cap space.

    #ChiaTweaks.

  27. Todd Macallan says:

    The first 4 picks of that mock could not be more ideal.

  28. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Thoughts on Alzner for Lucic? Don’t know if I’d do it honestly, Alzner has 1 less year at $1.375M less.

    I love to take in all the rumours from all the “insiders” and this is the most recent one. Would feel like duplicating Russell but on a worse contract. Ricki was a bit Alzner lover if I recall, said WSH would dearly miss him. Eek.

  29. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Thoughts on Alzner for Lucic? Don’t know if I’d do it honestly, Alzner has 1 less year at $1.375M less.

    I love to take in all the rumours from all the “insiders” and this is the most recent one. Would feel like duplicating Russell but on a worse contract. Ricki was a bit Alzner lover if I recall, said WSH would dearly miss him. Eek.

    Oilers could flip Alzner easier probably.

  30. --hudson-- says:

    How do the Oilers build their consensus list?

    During the McGregor era, from what I could glean during Oil Change, they seemed to have a grouping (Taylor versus Tyler), then they go around the room and every scout chimes in with an opinion. They select a name from the group, add it to the list, then move on to the next name in the group. I presume they repeated this a few times to polish “the list” before the draft.

    I could see how this could be a poor way to achieve a consensus. One of the scouts may be a blowhard and dominate the conversation. Or maybe Kevin Lowe or Tambellini comes in the room for 5 minutes and skews the power dynamics, telling the group they want someone with “pop” in their game. On the otherhand, if your scouting staff has the Connor McDavid of scouts (a master evaluator of talent) and he gets his way, this format could be a great way to achieve a consensus.

    A better way, if you are not sure you have the Connor McDavid of scouts, would be to have all of your scouts rank the players. Even the players they haven’t seen. Then Keith Gretzky could use a method to average out these rankings and sort them in a master list. He could use the mean average of all the scouts or give stronger weighting to ranks provided by area scouts. He could use a weighted average to give a bigger voice to Vaclav Burda’s choices over Mike Chiarelli’s ranking.

    The problem with the first method, the round table one, is the master list becomes heavily biased by the influencers of the group. One scout may see Tyler Pitlick in a player while the other sees Brad Isbister. The second method attempts to counter these biases of each individual scout with the biases of the other scouts in the group. The average of the two scouts may project the player into a Josh Green trajectory.

    In other words, the first method is an amped up version of what you get when you read a list generated by a Craig Button or a Pronman. The second method is an amped of Oilers-centric version of what you get when you read McKenzie’s list. Which type of list would you be better entering the draft with?

    If LT or any readers of the blog know how the Oilers under Keith Gretzky generate their list, I would love to hear about it. Any articles or videos on the topic would also be of great interest, for the Oilers or their rivals.

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Good analysis of the ARI-MTL trade by Andrew Berkshire:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/max-domi-brings-canadiens-alex-galchenyuk/

    He has access to Sportlogiq data so there are more metrics in there than what you may be used to.

    I think some of them (likes passes to the slot) are very interesting.

  32. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Seabrook on the other hand is paid 875K more for a year longer and IMO is a notably worse player. Hope that avenue is not explored in the slightest.

  33. RonnieB says:

    IMHO the Domi trade is a massive tell that the Habs intend to draft a center in the first round, and will probably be a prime player in the Stasny sweepstakes.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Would you trade RNH+Lucic for Pacioretty+Weber? With some kind of understanding Weber would retire in 5 years

  35. RonnieB says:

    LadiesloveSmid: understanding Weber would retire in 5 years

    Not sure that it would be the same thing, but Marion Hossa also has a massively front-loaded contract with actual salary of just $1 million in each of the final 3 years; a buyout would only cost $333,333 for 6 years but the cap hit would still be $4.6 million for 3 years and $333,333 for years 4,5,6. That’s why some of the other GMs weren’t too pleased when Chicago was able to “manipulate” LTIR relief for Hossa’s contract.

  36. LadiesloveSmid says:

    RonnieB,

    I think if Weber retires early, NSH gets a huge cap penalty.

    He gets paid $6M real dollars for the next 4 seasons, then $3M for 1 season, then $1M for the remaining 3. Wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities to see him retire 4-5 seasons from now.

  37. blainer says:

    I really believe the Oilers are going to have the choice between Boqvist and Smith.

    Now I must say I was not happy when we drafted Benson over Debrincat because of his injury. We have drafted players with injury history in the past and have always said I would never draft a player with an Injury again. It’s just how I feel.

    That said Boqvist is a player you just can’t pass on IMO. The man is still raw and very young for this draft. There have been comments on his defense but as mentioned he is barely old enough to be in this draft. I would fully expect him to work out those issues as he gets older and properly coached.

    This type of player rarely gets traded for and when they do it costs a ton. Just look at the Hall trade as an example. RT shot D as talented as this player are very rare. I really hope they do not pass on him. They need to draft him and be Patient for two years in order for him to develop.

    While Smith would also be a good pick I really believe we will regret passing on Boqvist.

    I also have Kotkienemi ahead of Smith but not Boqvist. Although I must say if he is also available it would be a much harder decision to make.

    Age is extremely important when drafting IMO.

  38. deardylan says:

    Did you read this… For the 2018 SBNation Mock NHL Draft, the Copper and Blue are happy to select 6’1, 185lb, RW

    Martin Kaut!

  39. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Would you trade RNH+Lucic for Pacioretty+Weber? With some kind of understanding Weber would retire in 5 years

    One Lucic is not enough. Let’s package our top 10 LW who is entering his prime with Lucic for two Lucic’s in return. Two Lucic’s are better than one. And for the trivial cost of Nugent-Hopkins

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    deardylan,

    Czech league numbers are better than Necas & Chytil. Could do a lot worse. Surprised LT has him as low as 48

  41. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10: One Lucic is not enough.Let’s package our top 10 LW who is entering his prime with Lucic for two Lucic’s in return.Two Lucic’s are better than one.And for the trivial cost of Nugent-Hopkins

    Don’t even know where to begin with this comment. This makes whining about not inking UFA 31 game Pitlick to a 3-year deal sound sensible. Usually I can enjoy your dissenting opinion.

  42. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Don’t even know where to begin with this comment. This makes whining about not inking UFA 31 game Pitlick to a 3-year deal sound sensible. Usually I can enjoy your dissenting opinion.

    It was a long-winded No! I felt hyperbolic was the proper tone for the reply.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    It would be risky to trade Talbot without a sure starter. I can see PC doing it if he could get Grubauer, he’s riverboaty enough.

    For sure – it would be egregious and fireable to trade Talbot and go in to the season with Koskinen pencilled in as the starter.

    No, Talbot is not unmoveable, however, unless there is a corresponding move for a tender in, it makes no sense.

    What type of value does Talbot have in a trade with one year left? I’d trade him in package for one of NYI’s first rounders or Pulock, we’d have to add.

    The corresponding move for Grubauer would work – he’s not proven but its a very good bet – an very similar situation to when we acquired Talbot – a high end back up behind an elite starter.

  44. digger50 says:

    Now that the draft is upon us, my little peave with how they used Montoya 9 games is resurfacing. Isn’t this just rediculous?

    Play the man 7 games, he costs a fifth rounder.

    Play the man 9 games and he costs a fourth rounder?

    Why? To get a read on Montoya? Okay, then give him 12 games and have a good look.

    For two games of Montoya we turn a fourth rounder into a fifth. It’s another minor thing that adds up.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    I refuse to give any sort of negative mental resources in the difference between a fourth round pick and a fifth round pick. Its not like we lost the fourth round pick and got nothing, we lost the fourth round pick and got the fifth round pick – this is the difference between the, what, 100th and the 130th pick (give or take)? Its essentially statistically insignificant.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looking at the Oilers draft history over the last few years and, when either player has turned out to be anything (or is tracking to be anything), the 5th has looked (or is looking better than the fourth):

    2017 – Maksimov in the 5th is tracking slightly better than Safin in the 4th

    2015 – Bear in the 5th is tracking better than Jones in the 4th

    2012 – LaLeggia in the 5th is tracking better than Gustafsson in the 4th

  47. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looking at the Oilers draft history over the last few years and, when either player has turned out to be anything (or is tracking to be anything), the 5th has looked (or is looking better than the fourth):

    2017 – Maksimov in the 5th is tracking slightly better than Safin in the 4th

    2015 – Bear in the 5th is tracking better than Jones in the 4th

    2012 – LaLeggia in the 5th is tracking better than Gustafsson in the 4th

    Is this how you explain why TMac played Montoya enough to be a 4th round pick?

  48. frjohnk says:

    digger50:
    Now that the draft is upon us, my little peave with how they used Montoya 9 games is resurfacing. Isn’t this just rediculous?

    Play the man 7 games, he costs a fifth rounder.

    Play the man 9 games and he costs a fourth rounder?

    Why? To get a read on Montoya? Okay, then give him 12 games and have a good look.

    For two games of Montoya we turn a fourth rounder into a fifth. It’s another minor thing that adds up.

    Its just a paper cut.

  49. Alpine says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looking at the Oilers draft history over the last few years and, when either player has turned out to be anything (or is tracking to be anything), the 5th has looked (or is looking better than the fourth):

    2017 – Maksimov in the 5th is tracking slightly better than Safin in the 4th

    2015 – Bear in the 5th is tracking better than Jones in the 4th

    2012 – LaLeggia in the 5th is tracking better than Gustafsson in the 4th

    I really don’t know about that last one. Gustafsson has 30 point in 76 games split over a couple seasons on Chicago’s blueline, while Laleggia still hasn’t cracked an oilers roster that needs some extra offense from both D and LW. If I can recall, Laleggia didn’t score much in the AHL until being moved to forward anyways.

    Gustafsson remains one of our more curious non-signings. Not sure if it was the team or player who didn’t want much to do with the other.

    There’s another Erik Gustafsson who played for the Flyers a few back but plays in the KHL now. He’s not the one we drafted.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: Is this how you explain why TMac played Montoya enough to be a 4th round pick?

    No, this is how I formulate the opinion that effect of it is essentially meaningless. That far down the draft, the difference is insignificant and, as it turns out, over the last number of years, it seems the Oilers have had (are having) more success in the 5th round over the 4th showing how insignificant it really is.

  51. jm363561 says:

    digger50:
    Now that the draft is upon us, my little peave with how they used Montoya 9 games is resurfacing. Isn’t this just rediculous?

    Play the man 7 games, he costs a fifth rounder.

    Play the man 9 games and he costs a fourth rounder?

    Why? To get a read on Montoya? Okay, then give him 12 games and have a good look.

    For two games of Montoya we turn a fourth rounder into a fifth. It’s another minor thing that adds up.

    It’s also another little thing that really makes you question Chia’s competence. These are simple errors that just should not happen. Gryba – two year contract (and now rumoured buyout). Pouliot buy out. Unused cap last year. The Monster as Talbots back up.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    The difference between a 4th and 5th round pick is statistically insignificant – a player drafted around 100 is likely in the same tier as a player drafted around 130 – luck is the primary factor at the state. Recent history shows the Oilers having as much success, if not more, in the 5th round than the 4th.

    It shows a biased mind-set, in my opinion, when something that hasn’t happened and something that Chia hasn’t done, is used to show his incompetence. He has not bought out Gryba and the potential mentioned by Friedman is meaningless – he was spitballing and, in this case, as much as he’s respected, he is out to lunch. I will apologize if it comes to fruition.

    Signing Gryba to 2 years as opposed to 1 hurts the team how? The contract is 100% buryable in the minors so, unless you are Daryl Katz, not sure how this negatively effects the team. The 50 contract limit? We are in the 30s for this up coming season.

    The unused cap space is 100% justifiable to me and it made perfect sense on the assumption the team was going to be buyers at the deadline. Things went off the rails but I 100% agree with the concept. Lets not forget, we only had cap space for one season, last year. As we all know, there is no cap space for this coming year so Chia would have been limited to acquiring/signing those to one-year deals or else we’d be in worse shape right now.

    There are many many many things to spew vitriol towards the GM about and I have no issue criticizing him when I believe its warranted (I’ve spoken out harshly against the Russell re-sign, the egregious Koskinen overpay, etc.), however a 4th vs. 5th rounder, given the stats and the history, is almost as much of a non-factor as a 7th round pick 3 drafts from now.

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    1.Rasmus Dahlin

    2.Andrei Svechnikov

    3.Jesperi Kotkaniemi

    4.Noah Dobson

    5.Filip Zadina

    6.Brady Tkachuk

    7.Evan Bouchard

    8.Quinn Hughes

    9.Oliver Wahlstrom

    10.Barrett Hayton

    11.Vitali Kravtsov

    12.Adam Boqvist

    13.Ty Smith

    I would take Kravtsov and Boqvist over Hayton any day – maybe Smith too. Pretty sure Veleno is going to have a better career than Hayton and maybe a few other guys.

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    Todd Macallan:
    The first 4 picks of that mock could not be more ideal.

    If Gruden is available at 71 and the Oilers pass, I’ll be pissed.

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    RonnieB:
    IMHO the Domi trade is a massive tell that the Habs intend to draft a center in the first round, and will probably be a prime player in the Stasny sweepstakes.

    I just hope they get Tavares at $15M x 7. Montreal fans will be ecstatic, management gets to keep their jobs, and the Habs won’t be a contender for the duration of that contract.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Would you trade RNH+Lucic for Pacioretty+Weber? With some kind of understanding Weber would retire in 5 years

    No, I would not. Lucic at least has his health.

  57. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    This is 100 percent correct. There is very little difference between a 4th and 5th rounder. Other than grapes turning sour.

  58. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wonder what McKenzie is going to say about that on Monday (well McKenzie’s average of the list of 10 scouts).

    This comment did not slide past unnoticed. Thank you so much for the use of “average”.

    *tips hat*

  59. Munny says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    deardylan,

    Czech league numbers are better than Necas & Chytil. Could do a lot worse. Surprised LT has him as low as 48

    He would be a great pickup at 40 if he’s still available.

  60. ArmchairGM says:

    blainer:
    I really believe the Oilers are going to have the choice between Boqvist and Smith.

    Now I must say I was not happy when we drafted Benson over Debrincat because of his injury. We have drafted players with injury history in the past and have always said I would never draft a player with an Injury again. It’s just how I feel.

    That said Boqvist is a player you just can’t pass on IMO. The man is still raw and very young for this draft. There have been comments on his defense but as mentioned he is barely old enough to be in this draft. I would fully expect him to work out those issues as he gets older and properly coached.

    This type of player rarely gets traded for and when they do it costs a ton. Just look at the Hall trade as an example. RT shot D as talented as this player are very rare. I really hope they do not pass on him. They need to draft him and be Patient for two years in order for him to develop.

    While Smith would also be a good pick I really believe we will regret passing on Boqvist.

    I also have Kotkienemi ahead of Smith but not Boqvist. Although I must say if he is also available it would be a much harder decision to make.

    Age is extremely important when drafting IMO.

    I second every word. Boqvist hasn’t even finished grade 11 and we have some thinking his career is already over. Lots of player (Crosby, for one) have suffered concussion and went on to stellar careers. As long as it’s properly cared for, it’s not an issue.

    Also, the (he SUCKS at defense) narrative is false. If you watch the U18’s he’s often the first guy back and is always the net-front defender. He is always playing against older, stronger opponents and is unable to manhandle them, but his quick stick and mobility and ability to read the play means he can more than hold his own. Also, he’s 17 for crying out loud. Think back to when you were 17, then when you were 21 how much stronger you were. He has the unteachable skills, draft him and leave him in Sweden for two years and you’ll have gem on your hands.

  61. LoDog says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The difference between a 4th and 5th round pick is statistically insignificant – a player drafted around 100 is likely in the same tier as a player drafted around 130 – luck is the primary factor at the state.Recent history shows the Oilers having as much success, if not more, in the 5th round than the 4th.

    It shows a biased mind-set, in my opinion, when something that hasn’t happened and something that Chia hasn’t done, is used to show his incompetence.He has not bought out Gryba and the potential mentioned by Friedman is meaningless – he was spitballing and, in this case, as much as he’s respected, he is out to lunch.I will apologize if it comes to fruition.

    Signing Gryba to 2 years as opposed to 1 hurts the team how? The contract is 100% buryable in the minors so, unless you are Daryl Katz, not sure how this negatively effects the team.The 50 contract limit?We are in the 30s for this up coming season.

    The unused cap space is 100% justifiable to me and it made perfect sense on the assumption the team was going to be buyers at the deadline.Things went off the rails but I 100% agree with the concept.Lets not forget, we only had cap space for one season, last year.As we all know, there is no cap space for this coming year so Chia would have been limited to acquiring/signing those to one-year deals or else we’d be in worse shape right now.

    There are many many many things to spew vitriol towards the GM about and I have no issue criticizing him when I believe its warranted (I’ve spoken out harshly against the Russell re-sign, the egregious Koskinen overpay, etc.), however a 4th vs. 5th rounder, given the stats and the history, is almost as much of a non-factor as a 7th round pick 3 drafts from now.

    While I hate to quote such a long post I have to give props to this.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I just hope they get Tavares at $15M x 7. Montreal fans will be ecstatic, management gets to keep their jobs, and the Habs won’t be a contender for the duration of that contract.

    I am hoping the flames sign Tavares for a nice 7 long years.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: This comment did not slide past unnoticed. Thank you so much for the use of “average”.

    *tips hat*

    I listened to the “Bobcast” from Friday, and McKenzie mentioend that the previous way of viewing this draft as a 1-3-4 compartmentalizing no longer rings true.

    It used to be three compartments:

    1- Dahlin

    2 – the three forwards

    3- – the four d-men.

    Now its:

    1- Dahlin

    2- Svechikov

    3 – an absolute cluster through 12

    He mentioned that the top 12 were all ranked in the top 5 by at least one of the 10 scouts.

  64. Rondo says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Barrett Hayton

    “Quite possibly the best all-around player in the draft class. Everything Hayton does, he does with a relentless work ethic. He’ll chase down the opposition in all three zones and creates turnovers almost at will. He has excellent vision and knows where he should be on the ice and how to get there. I think some in the hockey industry were expecting greater offensive numbers from Hayton, but he wasn’t always put in the top offensive situations with the Greyhounds depth. He has the skill set to be a top offensive producer, but as we have seen in the past in the Soo with the likes of Morgan Frost and Zachary Senyshyn, it’s the draft year plus one that the big offense production begins.” – Dominic Tiano

    “Came into the league as a rookie known for his tremendous shooting ability but has now developed into a well-rounded do it all type of centre. As a pro prospect he may lack a standout trait but scouts love how complete he is as a player. He was the Hounds best forward by a notable margin in the playoffs and that will not go unnoticed. His ability to create ice and make plays in tight is fun to watch.” – Anonymous

    “He’s underrated by many and a legitimate top-ten prospect for me. His smarts, puck skills, character and poise are all elite. His skating isn’t great, but he has the mindset to work on it hard over the next few years and turn it into an asset much like John Tavares did in the years after he was drafted. I expect an offensive breakthrough next season in the Soo when he’s handed the top offensive role.” – Grant McCagg

    “The best 200 foot player coming out of the OHL for this draft. After watching him all year I wonder if he ever ends up a true #1 centre at the next level but I could see him being a very good #2 centre who can play in all situations.” – Peter Kneulman

    Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds’ Barrett Hayton is presented with the Bobby Smith trophy as Scholastic Player of the Year.

  65. theDjdj says:

    Just gonna spitball here but what do you think of trading RNH to Montreal for Pacioretty and their 1st (MTL desperate for centre), then moving the 1st to Min for their first and Dumba (Min desperate for elite scoring talent).

    Money probably doesn’t wash perfectly and it doesn’t address RW but we could hopefully get lucky with Wahlstrom or somebody of that ilk falling. Maybe you send out Nurse for help. It also allows us to backfill our prospect pool.

  66. theDjdj says:

    Alternatively you dont trade Nuge, cross your fingers Wahlstrom drops that far and if he does you flip the pick to Min for Dumba and their 1st.

  67. theDjdj says:

    or you do above and then try and build a package around Dumba for Karlsson

  68. leadfarmer says:

    theDjdj,

    Minnesota says yeah I will take your first for Dumba and probably something extra

  69. theDjdj says:

    leadfarmer:
    theDjdj,

    Minnesota says yeah I will take your first for Dumba and probably something extra

    I’d switch picks for Dumba, not give it up entirely. They seem pretty desperate for scoring, organisational restlessness about constant mediocrity, cap woes (think they have an internal cap?) and what seems like a decision to favour Brodin.

  70. Jaxon says:

    FOR THOSE INTERESTED, I’VE UPDATED MY DRAFT TRACKING SPREADSHEET WITH THE LATEST RANKINGS AND THE LATEST MOCKS.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

  71. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: He mentioned that the top 12 were all ranked in the top 5 by at least one of the 10 scouts.

    Of the 20 rankings I’m tracking there have been:

    60 different players ranked in the top 31
    31 different players ranked in the top 15
    19 different players ranked in the top 10
    17 different players ranked in the top 7
    15 different players ranked in the top 6
    12 different players ranked in the top 5
    9 different players ranked in the top 4
    6 different players ranked in the top 3

  72. leadfarmer says:

    theDjdj,

    No internal cap. Older declining players taking up cap. They gave up a lot to protect Dumba and Zucker last year. They aren’t going to trade either for trading up. If they are trading Dumba think Nuge or JP will be the ask

  73. Mariusz Czerkawski says:

    At long last, a mock I LOVE!!!!

    Fantastic as always LT

  74. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: If Gruden is available at 71 and the Oilers pass, I’ll be pissed.

    Johnny Gruden!!!!!!!

  75. Jaxon says:

    I’m pretty sure Lauko goes before 71, maybe even before 40. Pronman says he’s one of the 10 best skaters in the draft and the 7th best shot. McCagg’s Recrutes’ survey of scouts has Lauko as the 5th best skater and the 3rd most competitive player. Addison, Lauko, Gruden, or Mascherin would be great at 40.

  76. VOR says:

    –hudson–:
    How do the Oilers build their consensus list?

    During the McGregor era, from what I could glean during Oil Change, they seemed to have a grouping (Taylor versus Tyler), then they go around the room and every scout chimes in with an opinion.They select a name from the group, add it to the list, then move on to the next name in the group.I presume they repeated this a few times to polish “the list” before the draft.

    I could see how this could be a poor way to achieve a consensus.One of the scouts may be a blowhard and dominate the conversation.Or maybe Kevin Lowe or Tambellini comes in the room for 5 minutes and skews the power dynamics, telling the group they want someone with “pop” in their game.On the otherhand, if your scouting staff has the Connor McDavid of scouts (a master evaluator of talent) and he gets his way, this format could be a great way to achieve a consensus.

    A better way, if you are not sure you have the Connor McDavid of scouts, would be to have all of your scouts rank the players.Even the players they haven’t seen.Then Keith Gretzky could use a method to average out these rankings and sort them in a master list.He could use the mean average of all the scouts or give stronger weighting to ranks provided by area scouts.He could use a weighted average to give a bigger voice to Vaclav Burda’s choices over Mike Chiarelli’s ranking.

    The problem with the first method, the round table one, is the master list becomes heavily biased by the influencers of the group.One scout may see Tyler Pitlick in a player while the other sees Brad Isbister.The second method attempts to counter these biases of each individual scout with the biases of the other scouts in the group.The average of the two scouts may project the player into a Josh Green trajectory.

    In other words, the first method is an amped up version of what you get when you read a list generated by a Craig Button or a Pronman.The second method is an amped of Oilers-centric version of what you get when you read McKenzie’s list.Which type of list would you be better entering the draft with?

    If LT or any readers of the blog know how the Oilers under Keith Gretzky generate their list, I would love to hear about it.Any articles or videos on the topic would also be of great interest, for the Oilers or their rivals.

    Great questions. Sadly, while I know a bit about how draft boards are created and have been privileged to be present when several NHL teams created their boards I know nothing about how the Oilers do it. And each team I’ve studied does it differently.

    I was really hoping somebody would have answers.

    The generic answer is most teams use a regionalized board development process. Detroit’s North American scouts create a North American board and their European scouts create a European board. Then they merge boards. This process consists of a Socratic dialogue between the sponsor and a devil’s advocate. The Flyers do pretty much the same except with 4 boards.

    Quite a few teams run a modified Dutch auction (they give each scout say a thousand dollars to spend) with sale price taken as a proxy for draft ranking. Silent and blind not to mention anonymous this process insures every voice is heard but not influenced at the moment of ranking by other voices.

    I don’t know if that helps at all. I don’t want to be boring and pedantic. At the heart of drafting is the creation of the board and the process fascinates me and I can go on and on.

  77. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The difference between a 4th and 5th round pick is statistically insignificant – a player drafted around 100 is likely in the same tier as a player drafted around 130 – luck is the primary factor at the state.Recent history shows the Oilers having as much success, if not more, in the 5th round than the 4th.

    It shows a biased mind-set, in my opinion, when something that hasn’t happened and something that Chia hasn’t done, is used to show his incompetence.He has not bought out Gryba and the potential mentioned by Friedman is meaningless – he was spitballing and, in this case, as much as he’s respected, he is out to lunch.I will apologize if it comes to fruition.

    Signing Gryba to 2 years as opposed to 1 hurts the team how? The contract is 100% buryable in the minors so, unless you are Daryl Katz, not sure how this negatively effects the team.The 50 contract limit?We are in the 30s for this up coming season.

    The unused cap space is 100% justifiable to me and it made perfect sense on the assumption the team was going to be buyers at the deadline.Things went off the rails but I 100% agree with the concept.Lets not forget, we only had cap space for one season, last year.As we all know, there is no cap space for this coming year so Chia would have been limited to acquiring/signing those to one-year deals or else we’d be in worse shape right now.

    There are many many many things to spew vitriol towards the GM about and I have no issue criticizing him when I believe its warranted (I’ve spoken out harshly against the Russell re-sign, the egregious Koskinen overpay, etc.), however a 4th vs. 5th rounder, given the stats and the history, is almost as much of a non-factor as a 7th round pick 3 drafts from now.

    Excuse me for posting and not able to get back to the conversation.

    I think you are looking this in the wrong context OP.

    This is not about measuring the potential
    Impact of the mistake. (The success rate of a fourth vs a fifth.)

    This about making a simple unforced error by coach and management. This is about the mistake in the first place and what it tells us about the decision makers by behind it.And if it was done with such an inconsequential manner, then that’s even worse. I’m not screaming incompetence, but a small
    Mistake (I believe) However, these managers are paid to not make such simple mistakes. You cannot lead a team to success by making such silly decisions and then trying to justify by bringing forth the statistical odds of prospect success fourth vs fifth round.

    Inexcusable. No, No, No.

  78. Ribs says:

    What does the “Save and Return” button do? Other than eat your comment? Argh…

    This seems like a strange draft year. It sounds like we’re talking rebuild while we have McDavid on the roster. Crazy.

    I was dreading hearing Talbot trade rumours after hearing some unsettling chatter around the Christmas break of this year about him. It sounded like nothing that couldn’t be handled in-house, but teams are very different than they were twenty years ago. They aren’t the tight knit group they used to be. It’s just the time they are living in. I don’t know if there is any avoidance of that these days.

    I don’t know what to really expect out of a captain on an NHL team anymore. I only hope that McDavid knows which core group of guys are going to help the team win, and pays them the most attention. I don’t know that he has a Messier (/your favourite 80’s Oiler) to help him. It might be all on him at the moment. I’m sure that will change in time, but that is a crazy situation to be put in to.

    The awesome thing to think of, though, is that this is the guy that could do it. He’s exceeded expectations at everything he’s done in the hockey world since he turned teenage. He’s the most skilled player on the planet, and he’s got a temperament that is beyond reproach. He’s young, but no one cares when you win.

    I feel so odd saying stuff like this. I grew up in the 80’s and wasn’t a huge Gretzky fan. It was one of those funny things where you knew he was the best player, but everyone and their dog cheered for him, and it was more fun picking another guy on the team as a favourite. Paul Coffey was my guy. He’d skate the puck end to end like no one I had ever seen and could pass it off as well!

    I don’t think Gretzky will ever turn into my favourite from that era, but I have definitely grown a large amount of respect/admiration for what he had done since then. There are a lot of similarities between McDavid and Gretzky, and I’m going to look at them in the most positive ways possible.

    McDavid seems like a very driven guy. I think you can look at the scoring race this past season and see that. I can’t foresee an Oilers team that would not reflect his drive more than 1.5 seasons in a row. If they are out of it in November again… Heads must roll.

  79. Ribs says:

    VOR: I don’t know if that helps at all. I don’t want to be boring and pedantic. At the heart of drafting is the creation of the board and the process fascinates me and I can go on and on.

    Are you kidding? This is gold!

  80. BerkhamstedOil says:

    digger50: Excuse me for posting and not able to get back to the conversation.

    I think you are looking this in the wrong context OP.

    This is not about measuring the potential
    Impact of the mistake. (The success rate of a fourth vs a fifth.)

    This about making a simple unforced error by coach and management. This is about the mistake in the first place and what it tells us about the decision makers by behind it.And if it was done with such an inconsequential manner, then that’s even worse. I’m not screaming incompetence, but a small
    Mistake (I believe) However, these managers are paid to not make such simple mistakes. You cannot lead a team to success by making such silly decisions and then trying to justify by bringing forth the statistical odds of prospect success fourth vs fifth round.

    Inexcusable. No, No, No.

    digger50,

    I find this exchange very interesting. For me, it draws out the issue of how to look at Peter Chiarelli’s work.

    On the point itself, the only error I see is whether or not Chiarelli should have acquired Montoya at Montreal’s asking price. Once paid, you let the coach use the player as he sees fit. I also agree with OP that there was really nothing in it in terms of the step-up in the round of the pick. If Chiarelli had traded straight up for either a 4th or a 5th, we could have debated that, but expect that Chiarelli and Bergevin simply tried to split the difference between their offers.

    As to whether or not Chiarelli is actually a train-wreck of unforced errors, I see where Digger is coming from on many grounds (same one’s mentioned by OP – second Russell contract, back-up goaltending, etc.), but I have trouble seeing it as Chiarelli simply lacking the capability or the diligence to do the job – and that he simply got lucky with Boston. I come back to Woodguy’s point that Chiarelli struggles to evaluate talent. I expect that he and his management team are probably very diligent in evaluating players using the metrics they value most (and expect there is more math in there than we tend to assume). What I think it does come down to is the ‘Bruinisation’ of the Oilers – the philosophy of making this a physically imposing team with some skill vs a skilled team with some toughness (a Sather style team). Many of Chiarelli’s ‘wins’ (Maroon, Kassian, first Russell signing) and ‘losses’ (Lucic+Larson vs Hall, Eberle, to a degree Reinhart) all come back to making the team more competitive physically.

    In essence, I think Chiarelli has been doing what we should have expected – including a move like Lucic+Larson vs Hall. As such, I am trying not to see Chiarelli as incompetent, but rather the wrong hire for a team that needed to add toughness to skill rather than swap skill for toughness (i.e. a deliberate and fundamental overhaul of the team’s style of play). Such is the reality of trying to hire the best GM available at a specific point in time, without regard to whether there is a good fit (this also extends to the ‘fit’ between Chiarelli and McLellan IMHO). Sure he is going to have his misses and mistakes (all GM’s do), but this is on the old regime’s inability to maintain a robust management team and had to resort to hiring an externally successful GM with the McDavid lottery win – but a GM that was a poor fit for the assets the team had at that time.

    I do remain optimistic with Chiarelli still at the helm, in that I think Keith Gretzky does value skill above other attributes and I think that Chiarelli is willing to adjust to where the game is moving and Gretzky will be a prominent voice given his recent success at the draft table.

  81. VOR says:

    The most interesting draft process I have seen (Toronto Maple Leafs) starts out as old fashioned as I can imagine. They are twitchy about my saying too much so this is a simplification.

    It starts with a free for all as the scouts argue for their favourites. Watching them is like watching the draft scene from Moneyball. And everyone of Hudson’s concerns is present along with a bunch of other biases.

    So they build their draft board. Then management rolls another board into the room. The picks on that board don’t look much like the scouts board. This is the “data” board. Imagine Jaxon’s list crossed with Blue Bullet’s analysis and all of it supplemented with the sort of data (well a lot more data) that Canuck’s Army brings us.

    The scouting staff then merge the two boards. Any doubt the human pick gets the nod.

    Interesting thing is that each year the scout’s board looks more like the data board. Which is the point of the exercise, to enrich how the scouts see the game and evaluate players. It is really too early to tell if it works but it is an intriguing approach.

    I assume the use of data will increase with Mr. Dubas in charge.

  82. pts2pndr says:

    Rondo:
    ArmchairGM,

    Barrett Hayton

    “Quite possibly the best all-around player in the draft class. Everything Hayton does, he does with a relentless work ethic. He’ll chase down the opposition in all three zones and creates turnovers almost at will. He has excellent vision and knows where he should be on the ice and how to get there. I think some in the hockey industry were expecting greater offensive numbers from Hayton, but he wasn’t always put in the top offensive situations with the Greyhounds depth. He has the skill set to be a top offensive producer, but as we have seen in the past in the Soo with the likes of Morgan Frost and Zachary Senyshyn, it’s the draft year plus one that the big offense production begins.” – Dominic Tiano

    “Came into the league as a rookie known for his tremendous shooting ability but has now developed into a well-rounded do it all type of centre. As a pro prospect he may lack a standout trait but scouts love how complete he is as a player. He was the Hounds best forward by a notable margin in the playoffs and that will not go unnoticed. His ability to create ice and make plays in tight is fun to watch.” – Anonymous

    “He’s underrated by many and a legitimate top-ten prospect for me.His smarts, puck skills, character and poise are all elite. His skating isn’t great, but he has the mindset to work on it hard over the next few years and turn it into an asset much like John Tavares did in the years after he was drafted.I expect an offensive breakthrough next season in the Soo when he’s handed the top offensive role.” – Grant McCagg

    “The best 200 foot player coming out of the OHL for this draft. After watching him all year I wonder if he ever ends up a true #1 centre at the next level but I could see him being a very good #2 centre who can play in all situations.” – Peter Kneulman

    Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds’ Barrett Hayton is presented with the Bobby Smith trophy as Scholastic Player of the Year.

    His skating isn’t great remark along with another remark reference skating are BIG RED flags!

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca