Nowhere to Hide

A pre-draft inventory of the Edmonton Oilers organization shows great depth at center at the NHL level and something resembling depth on defense across the NHL and AHL clubs. Everywhere else is either a slight weakness or a glaring hole badly in need of repair. This week, management gets another opportunity at team building.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: The WHL draft pool 2018: Where are the forwards?
  • Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
  • Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

PROJECTED ROSTER/CAP 2018-19

This is the chart I’ll use as we see the team add (and subtract) NHL players, it’s a moving target but we may see only two or three changes based on actual need (we’re going to see more than three changes). I’ve included all Oilers save Al Montoya, and have moved the ‘tweeners’ like Kailer Yamamoto on the Bakersfield list below.

CURRENT CONDORS ROSTER

  • Center: Cooper Marody, Cameron Hebig, Colin Larkin
  • Left Wing: Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Nolan Vesey, Ostap Safin
  • Right Wing: Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Vesel, Mitch Callahan 
  • Left Defense: Keegan Lowe, Ryan Stanton, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson
  • Right DefenseEthan Bear, Eric Gryba, Ryan Mantha
  • Goal: Shane Starrett, Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner

This is the Condors’ roster without AHL contracts, purely the prospects. I’ve been thinking about ways to get Edmonton’s top minor league team on a level close to or equal with Winnipeg’s, Tampa Bay’s and Toronto’s as quickly as possible. I count 11 legit prospects flourishing on the Manitoba Moose roster for 2017-18, whereas the Condors who pushed numbered fewer than five. How can management add talent to the group in Bakersfield before the fall?

  • Drafting overagers who can turn pro immediately. I’d name Adam Mascherin, Sean Durzi and goalie Veini Vehvilainen, as well as Jesperi Kotkaniemi if he’s still on the board at No. 10 overall.

The Oilers have to aggressively close the gap, grabbing talent that is available and can compete at the AHL level immediately is a worthwhile endeavor. The club will be losing some outer marker potential but the road for a guy like Mascherin isn’t going to be as long as someone who turned 18 this spring. Edmonton needs production rfn.

 MCKENZIE’S LIST

Bob McKenzie’s final list comes out today, it’s a big day for draft nerds like me. McKenzie produces the draft’s most important list, because it’s the industry standard, the professional consensus. Here’s how the Oilers drafted alongside BM’s list a year ago, with some other lists thrown in.

Always a blast to see these lists come out, but this season there’s not much agreement after the first two or three names. I’m very much looking forward to the release of the list, we’ll talk to Steve Kournianos from The Draft Analyst at 10:40 Edmonton time this morning about the coming weekend. His list reflected the Oilers thinking very well, as did McKenzie and Button.

TRADING NO. 10 OVERALL

If Peter Chiarelli does trade the pick, I think there are two possible scenarios: first, as part of a package for a difference maker. The pick would have to be included with other pieces (including high value and high salary) to fetch that big piece.

The other scenario involves repeating the Griffin Reinhart trade, only this time with a better target. Trading No. 10 in a strong draft (I think the late surge by Kotkaniemi, Dobson, Hayton and Kravtsov is helping the Oilers currently) could mean getting a player who is farther along while still under control. I use Alex DeBrincat as an example but it’s very unlikely Chicago trades such a fantastic talent at the beginning of his career for a chance at something similar.

Put simply, the club needs another entry contract that brings extreme value and they need it now. It’s folly to expect Edmonton to find another CMD entry deal (two MVP-calibre seasons in three years=impossible to duplicate), but what about names like Brandon Montour, Daniel Sprong, Jack Roslovic, Timo Meier? It might have to be a bigger deal, and the Oilers might not get 100 cents on the dollar, but finding a RHD like Montour or a finisher for Leon like Meier who can be plugged in this fall and be part of the McDavid cluster would be a perfect fit.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, anything breaks we’ll have it and it’s going to be a blast. 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. A massive week for Canada’s NHL teams, culminating at the draft on the weekend.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. The projected top 10 is changing by the hour, Steve will help us make sense of things.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers in a position to grab a fine prospect Friday night. Will they trade the pick?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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118 Responses to "Nowhere to Hide"

  1. PennersPancakes says:

    What is the upside & playing style of Kravtsov? The late rising has me very interested but I haven’t seen much about him.

    Is there much to go on or is it his mostly playoff performance? Teenager playing in the KHL is impressive just curious if theres more information on him?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t be on board with Brad Malone being on the opening night roster – established NHL veterans will be available for cheap – guys like Kyle Brodziak, etc.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    What a 2017 draft (at this point – no sure things but so many up arrows).

    What a pick Maksimov is looking to be – again, at this point, no sure thing but a great draft plus 1 season.

    Trading up to grab Skinner looks like an astute move as well but goalies are voodoo, who knows how his development goes over the next few years – so far, so good.

  4. pts2pndr says:

    The glaring weakness on the current roster is that there is only one legit top four right side D. If Larsson goes down this team will fall faster than Liston in his heavy weight fight with Alli! We can only hope Benning takes a step forward and Bear coninues to progress in the AHL.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    On the Bobcat this past Friday, McKenzie talked about how the perception and view of the the top end of the draft has changed completely.

    It used to be viewed in compartments, they called it the “1-3-4”:

    1 – Dahlin
    2- The three forwards (Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk)
    3 – The four d-man (Hughes, Boquist, Bouchard, Dobson

    Now, its change completely in to:

    1 – Dahlin
    2- Svechnikov
    3 – a cluster from 3-12

    Bob mentioned that, in his consensus list, every single player in the top 12 had at least one vote in the top 5 – that’s how deep that tier has become.

    I love the “center heater” unless, of course, the Oilers take Hayton at 10.

  6. Red wolf says:

    Keep the pick and hopefully not drafting in top 10 for another decade!

  7. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I can’t be on board with Brad Malone being on the opening night roster – established NHL veterans will be available for cheap – guys like Kyle Brodziak, etc.

    But why waste effort signing said vets when Brad is already signed, even cheaper, similar performance and may just develop into something greater?

    It always baffles me when people say things like good vets being available for cheap by the dozen. It is never true. Cheap. Quick. Good. Usually you get to pick two.

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    ING-GER-LERND, ING-GER-LERND, ING-GER-LERND, etc, etc.

    No Dick Van Dyck accents.

  9. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – To LT’s point re: entry level contracts that have value that can make a difference: candidates are:
    1) Pool 1 year (he could be a difference maker)
    2) Kailer 3 years (really need him to be able to play for skill for cheap for a few years)
    3) Tyler Benson 3 years (could he be a middle-6 winger?)
    4) One of the D: Jones/Bear/Mantha: do any of them have top-4 minutes in them
    5) this # 1 pick (albeit in 2 years at the earliest)

    – everything else is really a multi-year project. Just need 1 or 2 from above to go off, then we are humming, with a real goalie

  10. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Wii you be having Mark Edwards on as a gues this week?

  11. Marc says:

    Bob Stauffer

    Verified account

    @Bob_Stauffer
    2h2 hours ago
    More
    Projected top 9 for NHL Draft:

    #1. Dahlin-BUF
    #2. Svechnikov-CAR
    #3. Kotkaniemi-MTL
    #4. Dobson-OTT
    #5. Tkachuk-ARI
    #6. Hughes-DET
    #7. Bouchard-VAN
    #8. Wahlstrom-CHI
    #9. Zadina-NYR

    Leaving EDM one of Smith, Hayton,Kravtsov or Boqvist at #10.
    I believe they take Hayton or Smith

    I’d be very happy with Smith, but am very nervous about Hayton. I know he’s young, but I don’t think he scores enough to be a top 10 pick. I suspect that in 5 years whoever takes him has a player that looks a lot like Ryan Strome, which is useful, but not if there’s anyone who projects to be a top 4 D still available.

  12. Rafa Nadal says:

    Marc:
    Bob Stauffer

    Verified account

    @Bob_Stauffer2h2 hours ago
    More
    Projected top 9 for NHL Draft:

    #1. Dahlin-BUF
    #2. Svechnikov-CAR
    #3. Kotkaniemi-MTL
    #4. Dobson-OTT
    #5. Tkachuk-ARI
    #6. Hughes-DET
    #7. Bouchard-VAN
    #8. Wahlstrom-CHI
    #9. Zadina-NYR

    Leaving EDM one of Smith, Hayton,Kravtsov or Boqvist at #10.
    I believe they take Hayton or Smith

    I’d be very happy with Smith, but am very nervous about Hayton. I know he’s young, but I don’t think he scores enough to be a top 10 pick.I suspect that in 5 years whoever takes him has a player that looks a lot like Ryan Strome, which is useful, but not if there’s anyone who projects to be a top 4 D still available.

    Hayton’s offensive numbers are far too low for me to stomach at #10 overall. I think we should take the player with the highest potential, which Is Boqvist. Hopefully the last time we draft top 10 in a long time, we should swing for the fences.

  13. trencan says:

    Marc:
    Bob Stauffer

    Verified account

    @Bob_Stauffer2h2 hours ago
    More
    Projected top 9 for NHL Draft:

    #1. Dahlin-BUF
    #2. Svechnikov-CAR
    #3. Kotkaniemi-MTL
    #4. Dobson-OTT
    #5. Tkachuk-ARI
    #6. Hughes-DET
    #7. Bouchard-VAN
    #8. Wahlstrom-CHI
    #9. Zadina-NYR

    Leaving EDM one of Smith, Hayton,Kravtsov or Boqvist at #10.
    I believe they take Hayton or Smith

    I’d be very happy with Smith, but am very nervous about Hayton. I know he’s young, but I don’t think he scores enough to be a top 10 pick.I suspect that in 5 years whoever takes him has a player that looks a lot like Ryan Strome, which is useful, but not if there’s anyone who projects to be a top 4 D still available.

    I will be really pissed if we pass Boqvist and he will be still available at 10. Based on Bobs comments it seems to be realistic.

  14. Rondo says:

    Rafa Nadal,

    Can’t see Zadina falling lower than #6.

    Hayton did not play on the 1st line. Less minutes. 100+ point next season.

  15. dustrock says:

    Rafa Nadal: Hayton’s offensive numbers are far too low for me to stomach at #10 overall. I think we should take the player with the highest potential, which Is Boqvist. Hopefully the last time we draft top 10 in a long time, we should swing for the fences.

    Yes. For all the comparisons in style to someone like Bergeron, I remind everyone Bergeron was picked #45 overall.

    Hayton’s stats are in the range of Patrice and he has a similar skill set, but I feel like this is Chasing Lucics. You catch lightning in a bottle once in a while.

    You draft a forward mid 2nd round who turns out to be one of the all-time great defensive forwards. Doesn’t mean you should draft those guys with the 10th pick.

  16. trencan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    On the Bobcat this past Friday, McKenzie talked about how the perception and view of the the top end of the draft has changed completely.

    It used to be viewed in compartments, they called it the “1-3-4”:

    1 – Dahlin
    2-The three forwards (Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk)
    3 – The four d-man (Hughes, Boquist, Bouchard, Dobson

    Now, its change completely in to:

    1 – Dahlin
    2- Svechnikov
    3 – a cluster from 3-12

    Bob mentioned that, in his consensus list, every single player in the top 12 had at least one vote in the top 5 – that’s how deep that tier has become.

    I love the “center heater” unless, of course, the Oilers take Hayton at 10.

    I personally see strong top 5

    Dahlin (of course he is different level)
    Svechnikov
    Boqvist
    Hughes
    Wahlstrom

  17. npanciroli says:

    I get the appeal of Boqvist but there are legit concerns there. Smith seems like a great pick and one of the better defenders in the draft with the offence as well.

    Smith over Boqvist is totally fine by me although I have a feeling lots of people might not like this.

    Hayton would not be a great pick IMO.

  18. Marc says:

    Rondo:
    Rafa Nadal,

    Can’t see Zadina falling lower than #6.

    Hayton did not play on the 1st line. Less minutes. 100+ point next season.

    Read this scouting report: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/nhl-draft-prospects-no-11-curtis-lazar/

    Then this one: https://www.defendingbigd.com/2018/6/1/17406992/2018-nhl-entry-draft-prospect-profile-barrett-hayton-kotkaniemi-veleno-farabee-tkachuk-wilde-smith

    Both scored less than a point a game on stacked teams during their draft year.

    Both got a third of their points on special teams.

    Defenceman Shea Theodore scored 11 points less than Lazar did his draft year, was drafted after him, and now looks a much, much better pick.

    Defenceman Ty Smith has scored 13 points more than Hayton has. I can’t see how he isn’t the higher value pick.

  19. Rondo says:

    Marc,

    I think you bring up a good point, however you cherry pick players that did well with those qualities too.
    At 17 he was arguably the best player in the playoffs for SSM.

    Bob McKenzie

    “I can tell you this, the big Finnish centre Kotkaniemi got multiple votes in the Top 5 from the ten scouts I talked to. Same thing with Noah Dobson. I can say that Hughes and Bouchard had more than one mention as Top 5 prospect, and that Boqvist, Oliver Wahlstrom, Barrett Hayton, and Vitaly Kravstov all of them got a mention in the Top 5.”

  20. Marc says:

    Hayton was tied for fifth on his team in playoff scoring this spring.

    Lazar was seventh on his team in playoff scoring during his draft year.

    I do think that Hayton projects to be a better scorer than Lazar. His regular season per game scoring rate was a bit better. Hayton also scored in the playoffs at about the same rate he did during the regular season, whereas Lazar scored at about half his regular season rate in the playoffs.

    But given that Lazar is a fourth line scrub, and Hayton isn’t that much better at scoring, I don’t think we can reasonably project Hayton as being anything better than a bottom 6 forward.

    I think the Oilers need to aim higher with a top ten pick.

  21. Rondo says:

    Marc,

    You could be right but 1 scout has him in the top 5 in the draft. Buttons has him at #7 and Bob McKenzie ?

    Boqvist and Kravtsov are the sexy picks.

  22. dustrock says:

    Rondo:
    Marc,

    You could be right but 1 scout has him in the top 5 in the draft. Buttons has him at #7 and Bob McKenzie?

    He’s a good player on a good team. He wasn’t the #1C and wasn’t getting the prime minutes, and his scoring rates aren’t too bad given his minutes.

    A team might gamble if he’s given star minutes, he would look like a #1 C.

    A cautious team would fear that he is Curtis Lazar.

  23. McSorley33 says:

    It now seems probable the Oilers will have an opportunity for either Whahlstrom or Boqvist….
    ( According to BM – TSN)

    Unbeleiveable

  24. Rondo says:

    dustrock,

    You might be right but I defer to a guy who watches him regularly Brock Otten.

  25. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    In looking over the Mackenzie list, it’s interesting to see guys who are expected to be available to the Oilers.

    #10 – Boqvist, Kravtsov, Smith and Veleno
    #40 – Addison and Durzi
    #71 – McShane and Gruden

    If we drafted any three of the above players in the first three rounds, I’d be over the moon. Based on what I’ve read (mostly here) the picks I’d make are Smith, Addison and Gruden. Then in the 5th round I’d try for Mascherin if he’s still available (interestingly not present on the BM list).

  26. russ99 says:

    Jethro Tull: But why waste effort signing said vets when Brad is already signed, even cheaper, similar performance and may just develop into something greater?

    It always baffles me when people say things like good vets being available for cheap by the dozen.It is never true.Cheap.Quick. Good.Usually you get to pick two.

    It baffles me how roughly half of the forward group is younger players we’re expecting to take a step up, many of which were relied to do the same thing last year and failed.

    Someone needs to put in the tough shifts that win games. Don’t see it here other than Khaira. Strome isn’t that, at least not yet.

    Let kids compete for a few jobs, fill in with inexpensive vets who can at least give us average NHL performance with and without the puck.

    The cream rises to the top like it always does. Too much of what Chia is betting on curdles.

  27. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    McSorley33,

    I’d sprint, suit and all, to the podium to draft Whalstrom. Would go full Costanza, old ladies and all, with no shame. None.

  28. Bank Shot says:

    Jethro Tull: But why waste effort signing said vets when Brad is already signed, even cheaper, similar performance and may just develop into something greater?

    It always baffles me when people say things like good vets being available for cheap by the dozen.It is never true.Cheap.Quick. Good.Usually you get to pick two.

    Brad Malone is 29 and looks like he has been 13th forward at best. I think the Oilers can do better.

    They need two vet wingers for sure as well. Ideally 3.

    Rattie seems pretty risky to run at 1st line without a fall back plan.

    That RNH-McDavid-Rattie line got killed in the corsi’s didn’t they?

  29. blainer says:

    Wow what an interesting draft this is turning out to be. I would be happy with any of the players available in the top ten for sure.

    This is turning out to be a good year to be drafting in the top 11 IMO.

    It is just amazing that Boqvist’s ranking has dropped so much. Injury is playing a big part in that me thinks.. BM’s list is gospel for me and its almost always very very close. I do think if ever there was a year he might be off a little though it’s this year.

    I also really like Wahlstrom and if he is available I bet we pick him over Boqvist but I wouldn’t. I’m all over that super talented RT shot D.. every time.. I doubt management has the patience to wait for him to develop though where he is soo much younger has been injured and needs to to get bigger.

    I will be very surprised if one or even two of those RT shot D are not drafted in the top 5.

    Whoever we get I will be happy as it’s a crap shoot no matter who we draft. The best player in this draft could very well be the tenth pick..

    It’s entirely possible IMO we could end up with a choice between Whalstrom Zadina and Boqvist.

    The weekend can’t get here fast enough for me..

  30. Rafa Nadal says:

    blainer:
    Wow what an interesting draft this is turning out to be. I would be happy with any of the players available in the top ten for sure.

    This is turning out to be a good year to be drafting in the top 11 IMO.

    It is just amazing that Boqvist’s ranking has dropped so much. Injury is playing a big part in that me thinks.. BM’s list is gospel for me and its almost always very very close. I do think if ever there was a year he might be off a little though it’s this year.

    I also really like Wahlstrom and if he is available I bet we pick him over Boqvist but I wouldn’t. I’m all over thatsuper talented RT shot D.. every time.. I doubt management has the patience to wait for him to develop though where he is soo much younger has been injured and needs to to get bigger.

    I will be very surprised if one or even two of those RT shot D are not drafted in the top 5.

    Whoever we get I will be happy as it’s a crap shoot no matter who we draft. The best player in this draft could very well be the tenth pick..

    It’s entirely possible IMO we could end up with a choice between Whalstrom Zadina and Boqvist.

    The weekend can’t get here fast enough for me..

    You’re getting ahead of yourself. Zadina and Wahlstrom will be gone for sure. Boqvist is probably the only one who will fall to #10, and even then Bob Stauffer has us taking Smith or Hayton.

  31. Oil2Oilers says:

    Happy Mckenzie List day LT!

    A way out of one of the two boat anchor contracts, Lucic or Russell, has always been my top hope for the Oilers this summer.

    As for the draft my hope is always swinging for the fences, drafting prospects with high upsides – even if they are bigger risks.

    A dream summer would be;

    Lucic + Jones & 2019 3d to Dallas for Honka. No salary retained but deal done after July 1st bonus payment.

    Draft Boqvist/Smith at 10 and Jesse Ylonen at 40

    Pickup a middle 6 winger or two on short term show me contracts in free agency.

    My nightmare summer is Pete grabs Homer’s shovel and keeps digging up trading talent for poise.

  32. defmn says:

    Elliotte Friedman
    ‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC
    8m8 minutes ago

    Sources: Barry Trotz is stepping down as head coach in WASH. Please follow the thread…
    40 replies 282 retweets 257 likes
    Elliotte Friedman
    ‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC
    7m7 minutes ago

    We had believed Trotz was a free agent this summer. That’s not correct. There was a two-year extension if he won the Cup in WASH. But, as coaches’ contracts have exploded in value, it was below the current market. Both sides tried to negotiate an extension….
    4 replies 42 retweets 49 likes
    Elliotte Friedman
    ‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC
    6m6 minutes ago

    But they could not come to terms. Trotz is now a free agent, as WASH will grant permission to other teams who want to talk to him. 3/3
    0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

  33. ArmchairGM says:

    Rafa Nadal: You’re getting ahead of yourself. Zadina and Wahlstrom will be gone for sure. Boqvist is probably the only one who will fall to #10, and even then Bob Stauffer has us taking Smith or Hayton.

    BM has Wahlstrom at #9 – how can you say he’ll be “gone for sure”?

  34. blainer says:

    Rafa Nadal: You’re getting ahead of yourself. Zadina and Wahlstrom will be gone for sure. Boqvist is probably the only one who will fall to #10, and even then Bob Stauffer has us taking Smith or Hayton.

    Your crystal ball may very well be working better than mine as the odds are that Zadina and Whalstrom will be gone but don’t forget that last year Bobby Mac had Vilardi at three and he dropped to 11. Great win for LA there IMO getting the big RT center falling to them.

    My gut says Zadina might fall out of the top ten like Vilardi but it’s just a guess. There seems to be a fair bit of movement lately although it would be hard for us to pass on Zadina if he does fall.

    Players drop.. sometimes more than one team goes off the board in the top ten.

    There have also been a few people saying that after the top two it really is hard to call. I think even BM said this.

    I also think it’s possible that the Rangers pick Kravtsov.

    I think the top 11 order may have some surprises this year.

    I will be happy with the player we select as I do believe we are getting a great player. For me though I am picking a RT shot D or a center. ( if Whalstrom is gone )

    I was also surprised to see Hughes drop that much as well. He is the only LT shot D I pick ahead of Boqvist.

    I just don’t see us picking Boqvist ahead of Smith though. I do think that would be a mistake just as I was in favor of taking Vesalienen over Yammer last year. Time will soon tell I guess.

  35. trencan says:

    Hypotetical question: Would you trade RNH to MTL if Svechnikov falls ?

  36. flea says:

    trencan,

    I wouldn’t. Maybe JP but I doubt MTL would go for that.

    How about JP and the 10th to Carolina for the 2nd and draft Svechnikov. All eggs in one basket

  37. ashley says:

    trencan:
    Hypotetical question: Would you trade RNH to MTL if Svechnikov falls ?

    I believe it is possible to get so engrossed in the draft that the forest is lost for the trees.

  38. leadfarmer says:

    trencan:
    Hypotetical question: Would you trade RNH to MTL if Svechnikov falls ?

    Absolutely. Svechnikov will be better than Nuge

  39. Jethro Tull says:

    ashley: I believe it is possible to get so engrossed in the draft that the forest is lost for the trees.

    I second, third and possibly fourth this.

    On another note:

    Jethro Tull:
    ING-GER-LERND, ING-GER-LERND, ING-GER-LERND, etc, etc.

    No Dick Van Dyck accents.

    Cor Blimey, Mary Poppins.

  40. Jethro Tull says:

    leadfarmer: Absolutely.Svechnikov will be better than Nuge

    Not for a few years.

  41. trencan says:

    flea:
    trencan,

    I wouldn’t. Maybe JP but I doubt MTL would go for that.

    How about JP and the 10th to Carolina for the 2nd and draft Svechnikov. All eggs in one basket

    JP for me personally has very high value. I believe there is next Jere Lehtinen or Hossa , but he needs more time. I dont see him as goalscorer, but many people judge him based on WC U20 tournament and compare him to Laine but i think he is completely different type of player. Maybe CAR has better chance to unlock him with Aho and Teravainen, so its maybe better option for JP but not for Oilers.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    The glaring weakness on the current roster is that there is only one legit top four right side D. If Larsson goes down this team will fall faster than Liston in his heavy weight fight with Alli! We can only hope Benning takes a step forward and Bear coninues to progress in the AHL.

    Yes, 100%, 2RD is a glaring hole.

    We saw how bleak things were when Larsson was injured and then bereaved last season.

    We had Russell playing 1RD with Nurse and it somewhat lines up with Nurse’s game coming back down to earth a bit.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: But why waste effort signing said vets when Brad is already signed, even cheaper, similar performance and may just develop into something greater?

    Because Brad Malone isn’t an NHL player and he’s not going to develop in to something greater given he’s 29 years old.

    I saw him play last year and not only was he not very good be he would hurt the team by taking bad penalties – more than once. He was only really on the roster for the PK and he was the one in the box.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    trencan: I personally see strong top 5

    Dahlin (of course he is different level)
    Svechnikov
    Boqvist
    Hughes
    Wahlstrom

    Sure, but that’s not how NHL team scouts see it now.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Calen Addison potentially available at 40 is extremely exciting as well.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: Brad Malone is 29 and looks like he has been 13th forward at best. I think the Oilers can do better.

    They need two vet wingers for sure as well. Ideally 3.

    Rattie seems pretty risky to run at 1st line without a fall back plan.

    That RNH-McDavid-Rattie line got killed in the corsi’s didn’t they?

    They were essentially right at 50% (or slightly over) in all possession metrics but killed the goal share.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8476454&p3=8476427&p4=0&p5=0

  47. slopitch says:

    Jethro Tull: Not for a few years.

    Agreed. But Id still do it. 3 mill cap space too.

  48. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Calen Addison potentially available at 40 is extremely exciting as well.

    +40

    However, I still think he goes in the 25-35 pick range…

  49. McSorley33 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    I’d sprint, suit and all, to the podium to draft Whalstrom. Would go full Costanza, old ladies and all, with no shame. None.
    ************************************************************************************
    Same.

    Then Calen Addison in the 2nd round…..a man can dream.

  50. McSorley33 says:

    Am I drunk on Draft prospect scouting reports?

    Yes, I am an Oiler fan -it’s what we do.

    But, you could make the case that if the chips were to fall in the right place and the Oilers
    come out of the NHL draft with Wahlstrom AND Addison. It has the *potential*l to
    right this franchise in a lot of ways…..

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Calen Addison potentially available at 40 is extremely exciting as well.

    I thought so too. I would like to see Boqvist, Addison and McShane / Gruden nabbed with the 1st three picks. Can’t have too many RD.

  52. Brantford Boy says:

    ArmchairGM: I thought so too. I would like to see Boqvist, Addison and McShane / Gruden nabbed with the 1st three picks. Can’t have too many RD.

    Ah McShane, yes please!

  53. Odd McSmellin says:

    What is Lucic’s value in pics? How mad would people be replacing our missing 4th round pick and dumping his salary? Or am I way off and it could either A) fetch a much higher pick ?? B) even cost us a pick ???

  54. commonfan29 says:

    I do not like the idea of the Leafs getting Merkley at 25.

  55. Rondo says:

    Bob Mckenzie’s final rankings are interesting

    https://www.tsn.ca/kotkaniemi-surges-into-top-five-of-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1115400

    I went 13 for 13.

  56. godot10 says:

    trencan:
    Hypotetical question: Would you trade RNH to MTL if Svechnikov falls ?

    No.

  57. godot10 says:

    Odd McSmellin:
    What is Lucic’s value in pics? How mad would people be replacing our missing 4th round pick and dumping his salary? Or am I way off and it could either A) fetch a much higher pick ?? B) even cost us a pick ???

    Lucic has negative value. Lucic + #10OV = or < 0.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Odd McSmellin:
    What is Lucic’s value in pics? How mad would people be replacing our missing 4th round pick and dumping his salary? Or am I way off and it could either A) fetch a much higher pick ?? B) even cost us a pick ???

    Lucic straight up, no strings attached, I don’t think any team will take the contract on.

    Lucic with 50% salary retained (the max) could likely fetch a decent asset.

    Lucic with 25% salary retained, I’m unsure.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Lucic has negative value.Lucic + #10OV = or < 0.

    Yes, he very likely has negative value but not as much as your post above indicates.

    If we attached the 10 to him, we get a return.

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Lucic has negative value.Lucic + #10OV = or < 0.

    Teams are interested so reports say. It will come down to whether Pete’s friends are willing to make a decent trade to get him or are looking to get him for nothing or worse.

    I think there is enough league track record to know players like Lucic are coveted even when the numbers are sketchy. Add to that he’s one of the league’s toughest players and it drives the GMs more off their heads. Like it did the Oilers.

    Vegas is probably interested after getting a taste of hockey with less rules. McPhee helped build that big team.

  61. Scungilli Slushy says:

    commonfan29:
    I do not like the idea of the Leafs getting Merkley at 25.

    Babcock and Merkely, a match made in heaven. He’d be available for little at some point.

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Babcock and Merkely, a match made in heaven. He’d be available for little at some point.

    I wonder about Wahlstrom and McLellan. The lad’s skill is great, the Oilers and limited players not so great.

  63. Scungilli Slushy says:

    trencan:
    Hypotetical question: Would you trade RNH to MTL if Svechnikov falls ?

    Nuge likely is in his second last season as an Oiler because contract term. If you can get Svech who isn’t expansion draft eligible and you don’t think next year is a Cup winning season there is a strong argument to do that with the Hans or Cans who both need top centres. But you have to believe Svech is an impact player potentially.

    To me that’s not a straight up, they need to add. Top young two way centres are as rare as established top RHD on the market, any draft pick alone but one like McDavid would be a poor return.

    **Hans or Cans, heh

  64. Munny says:

    Dobson was the biggest surprise for me on Bob’s list.

  65. Munny says:

    Every one of the top 12 players in Bob’s ranking got at least one top 5 vote!

    #Noconsensus

  66. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lucic straight up, no strings attached, I don’t think any team will take the contract on.

    Lucic with 50% salary retained (the max) could likely fetch a decent asset.

    Lucic with 25% salary retained, I’m unsure.

    Lucic in one year at 25% retained is 3 mil in real dollars per year. That has value

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Jethro Tull: Not for a few years.

    This team isnt going anywhere for a few years

  68. Rondo says:

    Take Wahlstrom or Kravtsov at #10

    Take Nils Lundkvist at #40

  69. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’ve been arguing all year that we should trade down in the draft, but now I’m thinking about a complete 180 and wondering what the cost would be to trade up.

    The draft is shaping up to be real interesting. The wingers are dropping like rocks because everyone wants a C or D. Unfortunately, I don’t think any of the top end guys will be available by the 10th. Wonder what it would cost to trade up to 3 or 6 or 7 or even 8? Even at 8 I think there’s a good chance we get Wahlstrom.

    Would the Habs even consider something like Strome and the 10 for 3? Or maybe the 10 and 40 for 3 and 61? Or maybe the 10 and 40 to the Wings for 6 and 67?

    Geez, it seems like there’s this amazing opportunity to grab a great winger and it’s just out of our reach.

  70. Brantford Boy says:

    Munny:
    Dobson was the biggest surprise for me on Bob’s list.

    I hear you, thought for sure he was going in the top 5…

  71. Rondo says:

    Brantford Boy,

    13 players not the order.

    Mine was a mock.

  72. leadfarmer says:

    I think someone take Hayton sooner than expected thinking they’re smarter than everyone else and find out very quickly that they are not

  73. Munny says:

    Brantford Boy,

    Not me. I have him lowest of the top Dmen. Scouts continue to surprise me with their emphasis on small sample sizes. I watched the entire Mem Cup and there was nothing there that said to me, “this is the second-best Dman after Dahlin.”

    He just doesn’t look offensively dynamic enough. Maybe a Bogosian or a Schenn.

  74. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: OriginalPouzar:
    Calen Addison potentially available at 40 is extremely exciting as well.

    I thought so too. I would like to see Boqvist, Addison and McShane / Gruden nabbed with the 1st three picks. Can’t have too many RD.

    I initially thought Boqvist was the way to go, but after reading JD Burke’s article on The Athletic, I don’t think I’d touch this kid with a ten-foot pole. There is some majorly aggravating footage of a player who really doesn’t give a shit about his team. Blowing the zone to cheat for offense as a D while his teammates are trapped. Giving up on a backcheck. Some ugly, ugly stuff. Add the size issue and a recent history of concussions and I’m avoiding him like the plague on draft day.

    https://theathletic.com/393183/2018/06/18/the-give-and-take-and-boom-bust-potential-of-defence-prospect-adam-boqvist/

    No thanks. There’s a reason he’s dropping in the rankings. If they’re going to gamble on a small offensive RHD with defensive issues, then I’d rather they go Merkley. At least his blunders on D are often because of his passion, not his lack of it. Probably neither is the way to go if you only have one pick in the first round. I’d defnitely gamble on those guys if I had multiple picks.

  75. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: Lucic in one year at 25% retained is 3 mil in real dollars per year.That has value

    Don’t you mean $2M in real cap space… and even less in real dollars?

    ‘*Edit: even my arithmetic is failing me at the end of the day… $1.5M

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think someone take Hayton sooner than expected thinking they’re smarter than everyone else and find out very quickly that they are not

    Here is hoping its not the Oilers…….

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: I initially thought Boqvist was the way to go, but after reading JD Burke’s article on The Athletic, I don’t think I’d touch this kid with a ten-foot pole. There is some majorly aggravating footage of a player who really doesn’t give a shit about his team. Blowing the zone to cheat for offense as a D while his teammates are trapped. Giving up on a backcheck. Some ugly, ugly stuff. Add the size issue and a recent history of concussions and I’m avoiding him like the plague on draft day.

    https://theathletic.com/393183/2018/06/18/the-give-and-take-and-boom-bust-potential-of-defence-prospect-adam-boqvist/

    No thanks. There’s a reason he’s dropping in the rankings. If they’re going to gamble on a small offensive RHD with defensive issues, then I’d rather they go Merkley. At least his blunders on D are often because of his passion, not his lack of it. Probably neither is the way to go if you only have one pick in the first round. I’d defnitely gamble on those guys if I had multiple picks.

    I read that too – since writing that post. Of course, he may be cherry-picking clips to suit his narrative too, you’d have to trust your scouts in this situation.

    Merkley also shows up much better by the numbers, too, according to that other Athletic article. But at #10? That’s a stretch. Hopefully Wahlstrom drops to 10…

  78. Andy Dufresne says:

    Marc:
    Bob Stauffer

    Verified account

    @Bob_Stauffer2h2 hours ago
    More
    Projected top 9 for NHL Draft:

    #1. Dahlin-BUF
    #2. Svechnikov-CAR
    #3. Kotkaniemi-MTL
    #4. Dobson-OTT
    #5. Tkachuk-ARI
    #6. Hughes-DET
    #7. Bouchard-VAN
    #8. Wahlstrom-CHI
    #9. Zadina-NYR

    Leaving EDM one of Smith, Hayton,Kravtsov or Boqvist at #10.
    I believe they take Hayton or Smith

    I’d be very happy with Smith, but am very nervous about Hayton. I know he’s young, but I don’t think he scores enough to be a top 10 pick.I suspect that in 5 years whoever takes him has a player that looks a lot like Ryan Strome, which is useful, but not if there’s anyone who projects to be a top 4 D still available.

    Same 9 guys as McKenzies list

    As McKenzie states, ” a number of notable draft developments that have unfolded over the last couple of months that could make even the top 10 of this Friday’s draft more unpredictable than originally anticipated.”

    All we need is for one team to pick out of order for us to get one of these 9 guys. Im pretty sure NO draft has ever gone exactly as predicted for the top 9 or 10.

    I think there is an above average chance that we get one of these 9 guys and dont have to decide between Smith, Hayton,Kravtsov or Boqvist

  79. leadfarmer says:

    Munny,

    Im saying to the team that’s acquiring him. Let’s say you trade him next offseason to Carolina who is trying to get size. If you trade him after July 1 at 25% retained that’s 3 mil a year in money for the rest of his contract and a 4.5 mil cap hit. That’s very workable for a 3rd line player on a team that cap floor is a number they pay more attention to than cap ceiling

  80. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I can’t be on board with Brad Malone being on the opening night roster – established NHL veterans will be available for cheap – guys like Kyle Brodziak, etc.

    Guys like Brodziak are on a downward spiral we already witnessed that last year with Letestu. Malone demonstrated that he can fill the role.

  81. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lucic straight up, no strings attached, I don’t think any team will take the contract on.

    Lucic with 50% salary retained (the max) could likely fetch a decent asset.

    Lucic with 25% salary retained, I’m unsure.

    OriginalPouzar: Lucic straight up, no strings attached, I don’t think any team will take the contract on.

    Lucic with 50% salary retained (the max) could likely fetch a decent asset.

    Lucic with 25% salary retained, I’m unsure.

    $2mil retained,and lots of teams will be interested, specially when you know the guy will have a somewhat bounce back season.

  82. Munny says:

    leadfarmer:
    Munny,

    Im saying to the team that’s acquiring him.Let’s say you trade him next offseason to Carolina who is trying to get size.If you trade him after July 1 at 25% retained that’s 3 mil a year in money for the rest of his contract and a 4.5 mil cap hit.That’s very workable for a 3rd line player on a team that cap floor is a number they pay more attention to than cap ceiling

    So we’re paying Lucic $12M a year? Because 3 is 25 percent of 12.

    Looks like you have the cap hit straightened out. Savings of $1.5M to the recipient team.

    Because this is a declining contract, I believe the actual salary is irrelevant. The amount we contribute to his actual paycheque, annually, is identical to the caphit savings… or else the numbers don’t work. That is we don’t contribute 25 percent of his actual cheque but whatever the cap retained amount is.

    So $1.5M to the recipient team, either way.

  83. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: I read that too – since writing that post. Of course, he may be cherry-picking clips to suit his narrative too, you’d have to trust your scouts in this situation.

    Merkley also shows up much better by the numbers, too, according to that other Athletic article. But at #10? That’s a stretch. Hopefully Wahlstrom drops to 10…

    There’s some warts on both of them there picks. I don’t think I’d gamble with only one pick at #10 on Merkley or Boqvist although I think I’d be more comfortable with Merkley at this stage. Hell, I think I’d draft LHD K’Andre Miller before them and he is generally ranked in the #28 range. If Dobson and Bouchard are gone by #10, maybe they go with a forward like Kupari, Kravtsov or Bokk at #10 (or Veleno, but I’m not as high on him as I once was). That said, I’m still intrigued by Merkley’s upside and like Pronman’s assessment of his deficiencies and issues as overblown.

    0% chance: Dahlin, Svechnikov
    Shocked if they fall far enough: Zadina, Tkachuk, Hughes
    Lucky if they fall to 10: Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi, Bouchard, Dobson
    Too risky: Boqvist, Merkley
    Likely available in that range: Ty Smith, Joe Veleno, Joel Farabee, Barrett Hayton
    I’d be happy if they gambled on speed or production with these: Kupari, Bokk, Kravtsov
    My favourite gamble: K’Andre Miller.

    I would not be upset if they drafted one of these guys at #10:
    – Kravtsov’s production in the KHL is very impressive (up there with the top of the draft)
    – K’Andre Miller’s production in the USHL is up there with the best in the draft.
    – I would love to see fellow German, Bokk, playing with Draisaitl.
    – Kupari is one of the fastest players in the draft.
    – I have my reservations about Farabee, just based on his low estimated TOI.
    – Veleno is a tough one to figure out. Scouting reports are glowing, former exceptional status player and his production since being traded this year matched Zadina’s
    – Serron Noel is the 3rd most productive forward in Canadian Jr this year and he’s one of the youngest players, plus he’s physical, fast and huge.
    – Merkley’s upside and skills are too good to ignore. One of the fastest skaters, one of the best passers and stickhandlers, with one of the highest hockey IQs in the draft.

    I’d assume they did their homework on them and feel they would be a great fit.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Guys like Brodziak are on a downward spiral we already witnessed that last year with Letestu. Malone demonstrated that he can fill the role.

    Malone demonstrated the opposite, that he cannot fill the role – he was awful in the games that he played and hurt to team by taking bad penalties, more than once.

    He’s not an NHL player and he’s not going to get any better, in fact, a decline as he approaches 30 isn’t even out of the question.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99:
    $2mil retained,and lots of teams will be interested, specially when you know the guy will have a somewhat bounce back season.

    While I personally think that he will have a bit of a bounce back season (around 20-25-45), I don’t think its a foregone conclusion at all.

    People think he has only been regressing for one year but its been two. Yes, he had 50 points in his first season but it was due to a one-off PP heater where he produced on the PP at career highs – near double his previous career highs. He’s never produced on the PP before and he’s highly unlikely to do so again. His even strength numbers in his first season were actually a tiny bit worse than this past season.

  86. leadfarmer says:

    Munny,

    Lucic will be owed 16 mil over 4 years equaling 4 mil per year. If you retain 25% that’s 3 mil a year that they will owe. You have to retain same percentage of salary as cap so 4.5 mil cap a year on a 3 mil salary Carolina would have to pay.

  87. Jaxon says:

    I updated my draft rankings and mock drafts tracker for those who are interested:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

  88. jtblack says:

    Jaxon,

    Thx for that.

  89. digger50 says:

    It’s hard not to get caught up in the excitement of the draft.

    The goal should be to get a top six or top four cost controlled player into the line up ASAP. So time until NHL readiness should be a factor in decision making.

    If we can get that player this season via trade then it seems the right thing to do. Potential upside of a new draftee will be a question mark, but the certainty of an NHL player this season would be worth it. If Peter decided it’s the way to go – watch out – as he’ll make any deal. But if he can be selective a(patient) nd the right player comes available, it’s highly likely he makes the trade.

  90. digger50 says:

    Jaxon: I initially thought Boqvist was the way to go, but after reading JD Burke’s article on The Athletic, I don’t think I’d touch this kid with a ten-foot pole. There is some majorly aggravating footage of a player who really doesn’t give a shit about his team. Blowing the zone to cheat for offense as a D while his teammates are trapped. Giving up on a backcheck. Some ugly, ugly stuff. Add the size issue and a recent history of concussions and I’m avoiding him like the plague on draft day.

    https://theathletic.com/393183/2018/06/18/the-give-and-take-and-boom-bust-potential-of-defence-prospect-adam-boqvist/

    No thanks. There’s a reason he’s dropping in the rankings. If they’re going to gamble on a small offensive RHD with defensive issues, then I’d rather they go Merkley. At least his blunders on D are often because of his passion, not his lack of it. Probably neither is the way to go if you only have one pick in the first round. I’d defnitely gamble on those guys if I had multiple picks.

    Unfortunately I can’t read the article but have a comment anyway.

    I find that the most beneficial thing for a prospect is to stick with one team and one coach as much as possable. They can learn the most on the ice when they have stability off the ice.

    For many youngsters, moving teams, changing coaches, even cities or countries can have a negative impact on development. In Boqvist case, who was “ his” team last year? Sounds like he bounced around a lot. Would have been better development to stick in one place so you do actually know and care about your team.

    And of course JP jumps to mind.

  91. commonfan29 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Babcock and Merkely, a match made in heaven. He’d be available for little at some point.

    This is true.

    The Babcock-Dubas dynamic in TO could get really interesting over the next few years.

  92. jake70 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Malone demonstrated the opposite, that he cannot fill the role – he was awful in the games that he played and hurt to team by taking bad penalties, more than once.

    He’s not an NHL player and he’s not going to get any better, in fact, a decline as he approaches 30 isn’t even out of the question.

    So which vet who is better will come in and play pressbox for 650k? LT had him on roster above.not necessarily dressed to play opening night.

  93. Jaxon says:

    digger50: Unfortunately I can’t read the article but have a comment anyway.

    I find that the most beneficial thing for a prospect is to stick with one team and one coach as much as possable. They can learn the most on the ice when they have stability off the ice.

    For many youngsters, moving teams, changing coaches, even cities or countries can have a negative impact on development. In Boqvist case, who was “ his” team last year?Sounds like he bounced around a lot. Would have been better development to stick in one place so you do actually know and care about your team.

    And of course JP jumps to mind.

    You have some good points. I wish you could see the footage. It’s a bit jaw dropping. If he did that in Edmonton they’d run him out of town. Oilers fans are not very forgiving. On one play, the puck was in the D-zone. He’s floating around the side hash marks for some reason. His team gets the puck and he takes off, blowing the zone, the puck gets turned over and he floats back to cover the point. Add this to the verbal from Pronman about a month ago that scouts had told him Boqvist had attitude issues. Then add to that, some concussion scares and he’s looking like a dangerous pick at #10, maybe even the entire first round.

  94. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    So draft Kravtsov

  95. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    So draftKravtsov

    I’d be good with that as I think his production might have some real high upside. It’s really hard to depend on his small sample size stats due to KHL coaches being so stingy with ice time for youngsters. Too bad he’s a RW.

    If RDs Dobson and Bouchard (and all the other suspected top 9 are gone, then it might make sense to pick a C (Veleno, Kupari, Hayton), or even a LW like Farabee rather than a RW (Kravtsov, Bokk, Noel) or LD (K Miller). If it seems like a toss-up, talent-wise, that is. Or gamble on Merkley and hope your scouts are right that his attitude issues are overblown and he has the hockey IQ to overcome his defensive deficiencies.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    jake70: So which vet who is better will come in and play pressbox for 650k?LT had him on roster above.not necessarily dressed to play opening night.

    I didn’t say anything about the opening night 4C being $675K but there are lots of veterans that could come in for around $1M, actual NHL players – Pirri, Brodziak, Winnik, Vermette, etc.

  97. digger50 says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    So draftKravtsov

    He is a very interesting pick. I think he’ll be the surprise but what do I know. If I’m the Oilers I can’t afford the risk. Everything moving more and more towards Smith.

  98. Wilde says:

    I also read that article with the (hilarious) clips of Boqvist, and yeah I think people who are concerned about/would not draft Merkley at 10 should absolutely share the same sentiment about Boqvist.

    That being said, I don’t mind it. He’s too good for the SuperElit junior league and he’s literally just trying to style on the other kids and score goals. He plays entirely more interested in international play, which shows it’s definitely a mental motivation thing and not an acumen thing.

    Bet you could find the exact same clips of Karlsson at 17.

    I wouldn’t want the Oilers to draft either, but if I was the Islanders I’d pick Boqvist at #11(he’s going to slide there) and Merkley at #12.

    As some of you may recall, I have a ‘Misfit List’ of young bargain-bin options that I’d like to see the Oilers take a chance on. The (loose) criteria is this:

    – Must be old enough for a team to have to have made choices about the player, no draft+1 kids just finishing junior

    – These choices must be optically unflattering(other players promoted past them, lack of minutes, etc)

    – Preferably players that their coach does not favour

    – Must have a history of offensive numbers

    – Must be young enough to be cost controlled for awhile and be able to grow with the younger end of the current NHL roster

    – Must not yet have an established level of ability at the NHL level

    Here they are, so far:

    – Joshua Ho-Sang
    – Daniel Sprong
    – Josh Leivo
    – Matthew Highmore
    – Jared McCann
    – Valentin Zykov
    – Gabriel Dumont
    – Aaron Palusha
    – TJ Tynan

    I’ve been using on-ice and macro individual stats to rate these players, and to round out the analysis I’m now looking through their passing-project data and I thought I’d share a little bit of what I’ve found so far(small sample sizes alert):

    Daniel Sprong is an even better fit that I thought. Man’s a shooter: https://public.tableau.com/profile/ryan.stimson#!/vizhome/PlayerPassing/ComparisonDashboard?publish=yes

    He’s 35th percentile in shot assists per hour, but 98th percentile in shots per hour.

    In the link you can see how that contrasts with Leon as a 24th percentile individual shots player, but a 98th percentile shot-assister.

    This is a guy who scores 1.34 5v5 goals per 60 in the AHL too.

    He’s also got a high rate of his NZ and DZ passes turning into shot generation too, and never had the negative on-ice shot and chance shares to back up claims of debilitating defensive deficiencies.

    Josh Leivo is another shooter, but older, less talented, and presumptively cheaper.

    He’s better than 82% of the league in shots per 60, and 28% of the league in shot assists. He also doesn’t have the sterling transitional passing numbers(46th percentile).

    Jared McCann is a more balanced figure, with 77th percentile shooting volume, and 68th percentile shot assisting. Also a strong transitional passer at 90th percentile.

    Joshua Ho-Sang’s numbers are really funny, he’s a 99th percentile(!!) set-up guy for one-time shots and for shots assists in general he’s 79th percentile, but he literally. never. shoots.

    I knew he was a passer, but not to this degree and I’d probably back off on him especially if the price is high because you don’t want to give the coach a brain aneurysm.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    I was hoping for a guy like Sprong at the deadline but, alas, our rentals didn’t hold that type of value. I think PIT is likely counting on Sprong and his cheap ELC in the NHL lineup this fall – I think the ship has sailed on acquiring the player on the cheap.

    Josh Leivo, on the other hand, I’m surprised he hasn’t been traded yet. He seems NHL ready but can’t crack the Leaf’s lineup – I would think he’s moved prior to the start of the season.

  100. texmex says:

    Hoffman is a shark.

    Oilers in tough in the pacific. Sharks are much better and Vegas is gonna be better.

  101. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: A tough and important week for Peter Chiarelli

    https://theathletic.com/397888/2018/06/19/peter-chiarelli-a-tough-and-important-week-ahead/

  102. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Wii you be having Mark Edwards on as a guest this week?

  103. Professor Q says:

    texmex:
    Hoffman is a shark.

    Oilers in tough in the pacific. Sharks are much better and Vegas is gonna be better.

    This likely means that San Jose is no longer the frontrunner for Kovalchuk, correct?

  104. Rondo says:

    Bob Stauffer

    @Bob_Stauffer
    31m31 minutes ago

    You know who be the perfect “right shot D” for the Oilers?
    Colton Parayko.
    Buried behind Alex Pietrangelo in St.Louis.
    Hasn’t reached offensive ceiling yet.
    Terrific person.
    Fair contract.
    Understands Edmonton market.
    Acquisition cost would be pricey though.

  105. danny says:

    Why does acquiring quality hockey talent happen so easily for the same handful of franchises over and over, meanwhile any meaningful acquisition for us is usually preceded with “The Edmonton Oilers are proud to select…” ?

    Sure Hoffman has baggage, but at .50 on the dollar, why can’t we have nice discounted things too?

    Their fans get Kane and Hoffman…

    We add obscure fringe rookie NHLers, extended rookie fringe NHLers, and albatross 3rd liners.

    Sigh.

  106. ArmchairGM says:

    texmex:
    Hoffman is a shark.

    Oilers in tough in the pacific. Sharks are much better and Vegas is gonna be better.

    I don’t think we need to be worried about the Sharks for long. They’re giving away the farm to good-but-not-great players long term – $7M each for Vlasic and Kane makes me wince.

    Edit: Couture and Pavelski are UFA’s next summer, too. This ain’t gonna be purty.

  107. ArmchairGM says:

    danny:
    Why does acquiring quality hockey talent happen so easily for the same handful of franchises over and over, meanwhile any meaningful acquisition for us is usually preceded with “The Edmonton Oilers are proud to select…” ?

    Sure Hoffman has baggage, but at .50 on the dollar, why can’t we have nice discounted things too?

    Their fans get Kane and Hoffman…

    We add obscure fringe rookie NHLers, extended rookie fringe NHLers, and albatross 3rd liners.

    Sigh.

    What, you don’t like the selections Edmonton made? McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, RNH, Puljujarvi – I’d way rather have these guys than Hoffman or Kane.

  108. danny says:

    ArmchairGM: What, you don’t like the selections Edmonton made? McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, RNH, Puljujarvi – I’d way rather have these guys than Hoffman or Kane.

    Lol.

  109. texmex says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Agree, but I am only worried about the Sharks next season. On paper they are all but assured a top three spot in the Pacific meaning the Oilers have to grab one of the other 3 spots. I don’t see it happening meaning no playoffs 12 of 13 seasons. I don’t think I can take another losing season….they all but lost me last season.

  110. texmex says:

    Cancel my above post!!! Though they have cleared significant cap space for Tavares, Kovy or both!!!!

    Pierre LeBrun

    Verified account

    @PierreVLeBrun
    2m2 minutes ago
    More
    San Jose has now traded Mike Hoffman to Florida

  111. Harpers Hair says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t think we need to be worried about the Sharks for long. They’re giving away the farm to good-but-not-great players long term – $7M each for Vlasic and Kane makes me wince.

    Edit: Couture and Pavelski are UFA’s next summer, too. This ain’t gonna be purty.

    The Sharks…with Kane and Hoffman…just added 50 plus goals to their lineup at virtually no cost.

    If the cap keeps rising above $80M they will have no problem extending Couture and Pavelski.

    They are reportedly also in on Kovalchuk who could add another 30 goals for nothing but cash.

  112. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    Bob Stauffer

    @Bob_Stauffer31m31 minutes ago

    You know who be the perfect “right shot D” for the Oilers?
    Colton Parayko.
    Buried behind Alex Pietrangelo in St.Louis.
    Hasn’t reached offensive ceiling yet.
    Terrific person.
    Fair contract.
    Understands Edmonton market.
    Acquisition cost would be pricey though.

    Sort of like Guy Lapointe was buried behind Serge Savard and Larry Robinsion. Defensemen are not buried unless there are 4 clear better guys ahead of them.

    St. Louis has the perfect setup. As Pieterangelo declines, Parayko will be entering his peak years. The perfect setup for long term competitiveness.

  113. OilSafety says:

    Panthers have acquired forward Mike Hoffman and a 2018 seventh round pick from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for Florida’s 2019 second round pick, 2018 fourth round pick and 2018 5th round pick.

  114. godot10 says:

    danny:
    Why does acquiring quality hockey talent happen so easily for the same handful of franchises over and over, meanwhile any meaningful acquisition for us is usually preceded with “The Edmonton Oilers are proud to select…” ?

    Sure Hoffman has baggage, but at .50 on the dollar, why can’t we have nice discounted things too?

    Their fans get Kane and Hoffman…

    We add obscure fringe rookie NHLers, extended rookie fringe NHLers, and albatross 3rd liners.

    Sigh.

    Why? Lucic $6 million buyout and trade proof. Russell $4 million. Kassian $1 million too much for a 4th liner. Caggiula $500K too much for a tweener. Dumb buyout of Pouliot. Another million there.

  115. godot10 says:

    Interesting way to facilitate a salary dump of Boedekker by San Jose.

  116. Jaxon says:

    Wilde: As some of you may recall, I have a ‘Misfit List’ of young bargain-bin options that I’d like to see the Oilers take a chance on. The (loose) criteria is this:

    – Must be old enough for a team to have to have made choices about the player, no draft+1 kids just finishing junior

    – These choices must be optically unflattering(other players promoted past them, lack of minutes, etc)

    – Preferably players that their coach does not favour

    – Must have a history of offensive numbers

    – Must be young enough to be cost controlled for awhile and be able to grow with the younger end of the current NHL roster

    – Must not yet have an established level of ability at the NHL level

    nice! I like your list and it inspired my to dig a bit as well. Here is what I came up with using slightly different criteria. Under 24 yrs old last season, Over 14.4 ETOI/GP, Projected Primary Pts at Top 6 TOI over 16.
    Name – Projected 5×5 P1 – Pos – Projected 5×5 G – eTOI/GP – NHL Rights – Age
    Mike Amadio 24 C 10 16.31 LAK 21.342
    Jack Roslovic 22 C 15 14.49 WPG 20.627
    Daniel O’Regan 19 C 11 14.53 SJS 23.625
    Ivan Barbashev 17 C 8 14.81 LVK 21.755
    Tyler Vesel 16 C 6 16.24 EDM 23.423
    Spencer Naas 16 F 13 15.02 CBJ 22.218
    Jason Dickinson 16 C 12 15.02 DAL 22.202
    Tanner MacMaster 15 LW 6 14.52 VAN 21.687
    Rudolfs Balcers 14 LW 9 14.4 SJS 20.438
    Justin Bailey 12 RW 9 15.07 BUF 22.21
    Nikolay Goldobin 12 LW 4 14.77 VAN 21.942
    John Quenneville 11 C 7 14.82 NJD 21.416
    Nikita Scherbak 10 RW 3 15.91 MTL 21.712
    Tyler Bertuzzi 9 LW 5 15.12 DET 22.558
    Kiefer Sherwood 3 C 3 15.67 ANA 22.462

    These aren’t quite the ‘misfits’ (which I think has great merit by the way) you are searching for but the AHL players whose coaches trust them to play top line minutes and score. They may be having trouble cracking the NHL team, though. Not many high profile names here so they could possibly be pried away on the cheap.

    For D I increased the icetime (14.75) and age (under 25 last season) thresholds:

    Name – Projected 5×5 P1 – Pos – Projected 5×5 G – eTOI/GP – NHL Rights – Age
    Tucker Poolman 16 D 3 15.06 WPG 24.272
    Evan McEneny 16 D 8 15.94 VAN 23.319
    Oliver Kylington 14 D 4 14.75 CGY 20.326
    Luc Snuggerud 12 D 6 14.92 CHI 21.994
    Brady Austin 11 D 4 14.91 CBJ 24.25
    Trevor Murphy 11 D 5 16.43 NSH 22.166
    Kyle Capobianco 10 D 1 14.8 ARI 20.091
    Ryan Sproul 10 D 6 14.88 NYR 24.671
    Rasmus Andersson 10 D 5 16.63 CGY 20.885
    Jacob Graves 10 D 6 14.76 CBJ 22.47
    Sami Niku 10 D 3 16.38 WPG 20.931
    Carl Dahlstrom 10 D 1 15.24 CHI 22.632
    Travis Sanheim 10 D 0 16.05 PHI 21.465
    Gustav Forsling 9 D 5 16.28 CHI 21.26
    Anthony DeAngelo 9 D 3 15.55 NYR 21.895
    Jake Bischoff 9 D 4 16.72 LVK 23.144

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