Nowhere to Hide

by Lowetide

A pre-draft inventory of the Edmonton Oilers organization shows great depth at center at the NHL level and something resembling depth on defense across the NHL and AHL clubs. Everywhere else is either a slight weakness or a glaring hole badly in need of repair. This week, management gets another opportunity at team building.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: The WHL draft pool 2018: Where are the forwards?
  • Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
  • Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

PROJECTED ROSTER/CAP 2018-19

This is the chart I’ll use as we see the team add (and subtract) NHL players, it’s a moving target but we may see only two or three changes based on actual need (we’re going to see more than three changes). I’ve included all Oilers save Al Montoya, and have moved the ‘tweeners’ like Kailer Yamamoto on the Bakersfield list below.

CURRENT CONDORS ROSTER

  • Center: Cooper Marody, Cameron Hebig, Colin Larkin
  • Left Wing: Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Nolan Vesey, Ostap Safin
  • Right Wing: Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Vesel, Mitch Callahan 
  • Left Defense: Keegan Lowe, Ryan Stanton, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson
  • Right DefenseEthan Bear, Eric Gryba, Ryan Mantha
  • Goal: Shane Starrett, Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner

This is the Condors’ roster without AHL contracts, purely the prospects. I’ve been thinking about ways to get Edmonton’s top minor league team on a level close to or equal with Winnipeg’s, Tampa Bay’s and Toronto’s as quickly as possible. I count 11 legit prospects flourishing on the Manitoba Moose roster for 2017-18, whereas the Condors who pushed numbered fewer than five. How can management add talent to the group in Bakersfield before the fall?

  • Drafting overagers who can turn pro immediately. I’d name Adam Mascherin, Sean Durzi and goalie Veini Vehvilainen, as well as Jesperi Kotkaniemi if he’s still on the board at No. 10 overall.

The Oilers have to aggressively close the gap, grabbing talent that is available and can compete at the AHL level immediately is a worthwhile endeavor. The club will be losing some outer marker potential but the road for a guy like Mascherin isn’t going to be as long as someone who turned 18 this spring. Edmonton needs production rfn.

 MCKENZIE’S LIST

Bob McKenzie’s final list comes out today, it’s a big day for draft nerds like me. McKenzie produces the draft’s most important list, because it’s the industry standard, the professional consensus. Here’s how the Oilers drafted alongside BM’s list a year ago, with some other lists thrown in.

Always a blast to see these lists come out, but this season there’s not much agreement after the first two or three names. I’m very much looking forward to the release of the list, we’ll talk to Steve Kournianos from The Draft Analyst at 10:40 Edmonton time this morning about the coming weekend. His list reflected the Oilers thinking very well, as did McKenzie and Button.

TRADING NO. 10 OVERALL

If Peter Chiarelli does trade the pick, I think there are two possible scenarios: first, as part of a package for a difference maker. The pick would have to be included with other pieces (including high value and high salary) to fetch that big piece.

The other scenario involves repeating the Griffin Reinhart trade, only this time with a better target. Trading No. 10 in a strong draft (I think the late surge by Kotkaniemi, Dobson, Hayton and Kravtsov is helping the Oilers currently) could mean getting a player who is farther along while still under control. I use Alex DeBrincat as an example but it’s very unlikely Chicago trades such a fantastic talent at the beginning of his career for a chance at something similar.

Put simply, the club needs another entry contract that brings extreme value and they need it now. It’s folly to expect Edmonton to find another CMD entry deal (two MVP-calibre seasons in three years=impossible to duplicate), but what about names like Brandon Montour, Daniel Sprong, Jack Roslovic, Timo Meier? It might have to be a bigger deal, and the Oilers might not get 100 cents on the dollar, but finding a RHD like Montour or a finisher for Leon like Meier who can be plugged in this fall and be part of the McDavid cluster would be a perfect fit.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, anything breaks we’ll have it and it’s going to be a blast. 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. A massive week for Canada’s NHL teams, culminating at the draft on the weekend.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. The projected top 10 is changing by the hour, Steve will help us make sense of things.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers in a position to grab a fine prospect Friday night. Will they trade the pick?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Jaxon

Wilde: As some of you may recall, I have a ‘Misfit List’ of young bargain-bin options that I’d like to see the Oilers take a chance on. The (loose) criteria is this:

– Must be old enough for a team to have to have made choices about the player, no draft+1 kids just finishing junior

– These choices must be optically unflattering(other players promoted past them, lack of minutes, etc)

– Preferably players that their coach does not favour

– Must have a history of offensive numbers

– Must be young enough to be cost controlled for awhile and be able to grow with the younger end of the current NHL roster

– Must not yet have an established level of ability at the NHL level

nice! I like your list and it inspired my to dig a bit as well. Here is what I came up with using slightly different criteria. Under 24 yrs old last season, Over 14.4 ETOI/GP, Projected Primary Pts at Top 6 TOI over 16.
Name – Projected 5×5 P1 – Pos – Projected 5×5 G – eTOI/GP – NHL Rights – Age
Mike Amadio 24 C 10 16.31 LAK 21.342
Jack Roslovic 22 C 15 14.49 WPG 20.627
Daniel O’Regan 19 C 11 14.53 SJS 23.625
Ivan Barbashev 17 C 8 14.81 LVK 21.755
Tyler Vesel 16 C 6 16.24 EDM 23.423
Spencer Naas 16 F 13 15.02 CBJ 22.218
Jason Dickinson 16 C 12 15.02 DAL 22.202
Tanner MacMaster 15 LW 6 14.52 VAN 21.687
Rudolfs Balcers 14 LW 9 14.4 SJS 20.438
Justin Bailey 12 RW 9 15.07 BUF 22.21
Nikolay Goldobin 12 LW 4 14.77 VAN 21.942
John Quenneville 11 C 7 14.82 NJD 21.416
Nikita Scherbak 10 RW 3 15.91 MTL 21.712
Tyler Bertuzzi 9 LW 5 15.12 DET 22.558
Kiefer Sherwood 3 C 3 15.67 ANA 22.462

These aren’t quite the ‘misfits’ (which I think has great merit by the way) you are searching for but the AHL players whose coaches trust them to play top line minutes and score. They may be having trouble cracking the NHL team, though. Not many high profile names here so they could possibly be pried away on the cheap.

For D I increased the icetime (14.75) and age (under 25 last season) thresholds:

Name – Projected 5×5 P1 – Pos – Projected 5×5 G – eTOI/GP – NHL Rights – Age
Tucker Poolman 16 D 3 15.06 WPG 24.272
Evan McEneny 16 D 8 15.94 VAN 23.319
Oliver Kylington 14 D 4 14.75 CGY 20.326
Luc Snuggerud 12 D 6 14.92 CHI 21.994
Brady Austin 11 D 4 14.91 CBJ 24.25
Trevor Murphy 11 D 5 16.43 NSH 22.166
Kyle Capobianco 10 D 1 14.8 ARI 20.091
Ryan Sproul 10 D 6 14.88 NYR 24.671
Rasmus Andersson 10 D 5 16.63 CGY 20.885
Jacob Graves 10 D 6 14.76 CBJ 22.47
Sami Niku 10 D 3 16.38 WPG 20.931
Carl Dahlstrom 10 D 1 15.24 CHI 22.632
Travis Sanheim 10 D 0 16.05 PHI 21.465
Gustav Forsling 9 D 5 16.28 CHI 21.26
Anthony DeAngelo 9 D 3 15.55 NYR 21.895
Jake Bischoff 9 D 4 16.72 LVK 23.144

godot10

Interesting way to facilitate a salary dump of Boedekker by San Jose.

godot10

danny:
Why does acquiring quality hockey talent happen so easily for the same handful of franchises over and over, meanwhile any meaningful acquisition for us is usually preceded with “The Edmonton Oilers are proud to select…” ?

Sure Hoffman has baggage, but at .50 on the dollar, why can’t we have nice discounted things too?

Their fans get Kane and Hoffman…

We add obscure fringe rookie NHLers, extended rookie fringe NHLers, and albatross 3rd liners.

Sigh.

Why? Lucic $6 million buyout and trade proof. Russell $4 million. Kassian $1 million too much for a 4th liner. Caggiula $500K too much for a tweener. Dumb buyout of Pouliot. Another million there.

OilSafety

Panthers have acquired forward Mike Hoffman and a 2018 seventh round pick from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for Florida’s 2019 second round pick, 2018 fourth round pick and 2018 5th round pick.

godot10

Rondo:
Bob Stauffer

@Bob_Stauffer31m31 minutes ago

You know who be the perfect “right shot D” for the Oilers?
Colton Parayko.
Buried behind Alex Pietrangelo in St.Louis.
Hasn’t reached offensive ceiling yet.
Terrific person.
Fair contract.
Understands Edmonton market.
Acquisition cost would be pricey though.

Sort of like Guy Lapointe was buried behind Serge Savard and Larry Robinsion. Defensemen are not buried unless there are 4 clear better guys ahead of them.

St. Louis has the perfect setup. As Pieterangelo declines, Parayko will be entering his peak years. The perfect setup for long term competitiveness.

Harpers Hair

ArmchairGM: I don’t think we need to be worried about the Sharks for long. They’re giving away the farm to good-but-not-great players long term – $7M each for Vlasic and Kane makes me wince.

Edit: Couture and Pavelski are UFA’s next summer, too. This ain’t gonna be purty.

The Sharks…with Kane and Hoffman…just added 50 plus goals to their lineup at virtually no cost.

If the cap keeps rising above $80M they will have no problem extending Couture and Pavelski.

They are reportedly also in on Kovalchuk who could add another 30 goals for nothing but cash.

texmex

Cancel my above post!!! Though they have cleared significant cap space for Tavares, Kovy or both!!!!

Pierre LeBrun

Verified account

@PierreVLeBrun
2m2 minutes ago
More
San Jose has now traded Mike Hoffman to Florida

texmex

ArmchairGM,

Agree, but I am only worried about the Sharks next season. On paper they are all but assured a top three spot in the Pacific meaning the Oilers have to grab one of the other 3 spots. I don’t see it happening meaning no playoffs 12 of 13 seasons. I don’t think I can take another losing season….they all but lost me last season.

danny

ArmchairGM: What, you don’t like the selections Edmonton made? McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, RNH, Puljujarvi – I’d way rather have these guys than Hoffman or Kane.

Lol.

ArmchairGM

danny:
Why does acquiring quality hockey talent happen so easily for the same handful of franchises over and over, meanwhile any meaningful acquisition for us is usually preceded with “The Edmonton Oilers are proud to select…” ?

Sure Hoffman has baggage, but at .50 on the dollar, why can’t we have nice discounted things too?

Their fans get Kane and Hoffman…

We add obscure fringe rookie NHLers, extended rookie fringe NHLers, and albatross 3rd liners.

Sigh.

What, you don’t like the selections Edmonton made? McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, RNH, Puljujarvi – I’d way rather have these guys than Hoffman or Kane.

ArmchairGM

texmex:
Hoffman is a shark.

Oilers in tough in the pacific. Sharks are much better and Vegas is gonna be better.

I don’t think we need to be worried about the Sharks for long. They’re giving away the farm to good-but-not-great players long term – $7M each for Vlasic and Kane makes me wince.

Edit: Couture and Pavelski are UFA’s next summer, too. This ain’t gonna be purty.

danny

Why does acquiring quality hockey talent happen so easily for the same handful of franchises over and over, meanwhile any meaningful acquisition for us is usually preceded with “The Edmonton Oilers are proud to select…” ?

Sure Hoffman has baggage, but at .50 on the dollar, why can’t we have nice discounted things too?

Their fans get Kane and Hoffman…

We add obscure fringe rookie NHLers, extended rookie fringe NHLers, and albatross 3rd liners.

Sigh.

Rondo

Bob Stauffer

@Bob_Stauffer
31m31 minutes ago

You know who be the perfect “right shot D” for the Oilers?
Colton Parayko.
Buried behind Alex Pietrangelo in St.Louis.
Hasn’t reached offensive ceiling yet.
Terrific person.
Fair contract.
Understands Edmonton market.
Acquisition cost would be pricey though.

Professor Q

texmex:
Hoffman is a shark.

Oilers in tough in the pacific. Sharks are much better and Vegas is gonna be better.

This likely means that San Jose is no longer the frontrunner for Kovalchuk, correct?

Rondo

LT,

Wii you be having Mark Edwards on as a guest this week?

texmex

Hoffman is a shark.

Oilers in tough in the pacific. Sharks are much better and Vegas is gonna be better.

OriginalPouzar

I was hoping for a guy like Sprong at the deadline but, alas, our rentals didn’t hold that type of value. I think PIT is likely counting on Sprong and his cheap ELC in the NHL lineup this fall – I think the ship has sailed on acquiring the player on the cheap.

Josh Leivo, on the other hand, I’m surprised he hasn’t been traded yet. He seems NHL ready but can’t crack the Leaf’s lineup – I would think he’s moved prior to the start of the season.

Wilde

I also read that article with the (hilarious) clips of Boqvist, and yeah I think people who are concerned about/would not draft Merkley at 10 should absolutely share the same sentiment about Boqvist.

That being said, I don’t mind it. He’s too good for the SuperElit junior league and he’s literally just trying to style on the other kids and score goals. He plays entirely more interested in international play, which shows it’s definitely a mental motivation thing and not an acumen thing.

Bet you could find the exact same clips of Karlsson at 17.

I wouldn’t want the Oilers to draft either, but if I was the Islanders I’d pick Boqvist at #11(he’s going to slide there) and Merkley at #12.

As some of you may recall, I have a ‘Misfit List’ of young bargain-bin options that I’d like to see the Oilers take a chance on. The (loose) criteria is this:

– Must be old enough for a team to have to have made choices about the player, no draft+1 kids just finishing junior

– These choices must be optically unflattering(other players promoted past them, lack of minutes, etc)

– Preferably players that their coach does not favour

– Must have a history of offensive numbers

– Must be young enough to be cost controlled for awhile and be able to grow with the younger end of the current NHL roster

– Must not yet have an established level of ability at the NHL level

Here they are, so far:

– Joshua Ho-Sang
– Daniel Sprong
– Josh Leivo
– Matthew Highmore
– Jared McCann
– Valentin Zykov
– Gabriel Dumont
– Aaron Palusha
– TJ Tynan

I’ve been using on-ice and macro individual stats to rate these players, and to round out the analysis I’m now looking through their passing-project data and I thought I’d share a little bit of what I’ve found so far(small sample sizes alert):

Daniel Sprong is an even better fit that I thought. Man’s a shooter: https://public.tableau.com/profile/ryan.stimson#!/vizhome/PlayerPassing/ComparisonDashboard?publish=yes

He’s 35th percentile in shot assists per hour, but 98th percentile in shots per hour.

In the link you can see how that contrasts with Leon as a 24th percentile individual shots player, but a 98th percentile shot-assister.

This is a guy who scores 1.34 5v5 goals per 60 in the AHL too.

He’s also got a high rate of his NZ and DZ passes turning into shot generation too, and never had the negative on-ice shot and chance shares to back up claims of debilitating defensive deficiencies.

Josh Leivo is another shooter, but older, less talented, and presumptively cheaper.

He’s better than 82% of the league in shots per 60, and 28% of the league in shot assists. He also doesn’t have the sterling transitional passing numbers(46th percentile).

Jared McCann is a more balanced figure, with 77th percentile shooting volume, and 68th percentile shot assisting. Also a strong transitional passer at 90th percentile.

Joshua Ho-Sang’s numbers are really funny, he’s a 99th percentile(!!) set-up guy for one-time shots and for shots assists in general he’s 79th percentile, but he literally. never. shoots.

I knew he was a passer, but not to this degree and I’d probably back off on him especially if the price is high because you don’t want to give the coach a brain aneurysm.

digger50

Rondo:
Jaxon,

So draftKravtsov

He is a very interesting pick. I think he’ll be the surprise but what do I know. If I’m the Oilers I can’t afford the risk. Everything moving more and more towards Smith.

OriginalPouzar

jake70: So which vet who is better will come in and play pressbox for 650k?LT had him on roster above.not necessarily dressed to play opening night.

I didn’t say anything about the opening night 4C being $675K but there are lots of veterans that could come in for around $1M, actual NHL players – Pirri, Brodziak, Winnik, Vermette, etc.

Jaxon

Rondo:
Jaxon,

So draftKravtsov

I’d be good with that as I think his production might have some real high upside. It’s really hard to depend on his small sample size stats due to KHL coaches being so stingy with ice time for youngsters. Too bad he’s a RW.

If RDs Dobson and Bouchard (and all the other suspected top 9 are gone, then it might make sense to pick a C (Veleno, Kupari, Hayton), or even a LW like Farabee rather than a RW (Kravtsov, Bokk, Noel) or LD (K Miller). If it seems like a toss-up, talent-wise, that is. Or gamble on Merkley and hope your scouts are right that his attitude issues are overblown and he has the hockey IQ to overcome his defensive deficiencies.

Rondo

Jaxon,

So draft Kravtsov

Jaxon

digger50: Unfortunately I can’t read the article but have a comment anyway.

I find that the most beneficial thing for a prospect is to stick with one team and one coach as much as possable. They can learn the most on the ice when they have stability off the ice.

For many youngsters, moving teams, changing coaches, even cities or countries can have a negative impact on development. In Boqvist case, who was “ his” team last year?Sounds like he bounced around a lot. Would have been better development to stick in one place so you do actually know and care about your team.

And of course JP jumps to mind.

You have some good points. I wish you could see the footage. It’s a bit jaw dropping. If he did that in Edmonton they’d run him out of town. Oilers fans are not very forgiving. On one play, the puck was in the D-zone. He’s floating around the side hash marks for some reason. His team gets the puck and he takes off, blowing the zone, the puck gets turned over and he floats back to cover the point. Add this to the verbal from Pronman about a month ago that scouts had told him Boqvist had attitude issues. Then add to that, some concussion scares and he’s looking like a dangerous pick at #10, maybe even the entire first round.

jake70

OriginalPouzar: Malone demonstrated the opposite, that he cannot fill the role – he was awful in the games that he played and hurt to team by taking bad penalties, more than once.

He’s not an NHL player and he’s not going to get any better, in fact, a decline as he approaches 30 isn’t even out of the question.

So which vet who is better will come in and play pressbox for 650k? LT had him on roster above.not necessarily dressed to play opening night.

commonfan29

Scungilli Slushy: Babcock and Merkely, a match made in heaven. He’d be available for little at some point.

This is true.

The Babcock-Dubas dynamic in TO could get really interesting over the next few years.

digger50

Jaxon: I initially thought Boqvist was the way to go, but after reading JD Burke’s article on The Athletic, I don’t think I’d touch this kid with a ten-foot pole. There is some majorly aggravating footage of a player who really doesn’t give a shit about his team. Blowing the zone to cheat for offense as a D while his teammates are trapped. Giving up on a backcheck. Some ugly, ugly stuff. Add the size issue and a recent history of concussions and I’m avoiding him like the plague on draft day.

https://theathletic.com/393183/2018/06/18/the-give-and-take-and-boom-bust-potential-of-defence-prospect-adam-boqvist/

No thanks. There’s a reason he’s dropping in the rankings. If they’re going to gamble on a small offensive RHD with defensive issues, then I’d rather they go Merkley. At least his blunders on D are often because of his passion, not his lack of it. Probably neither is the way to go if you only have one pick in the first round. I’d defnitely gamble on those guys if I had multiple picks.

Unfortunately I can’t read the article but have a comment anyway.

I find that the most beneficial thing for a prospect is to stick with one team and one coach as much as possable. They can learn the most on the ice when they have stability off the ice.

For many youngsters, moving teams, changing coaches, even cities or countries can have a negative impact on development. In Boqvist case, who was “ his” team last year? Sounds like he bounced around a lot. Would have been better development to stick in one place so you do actually know and care about your team.

And of course JP jumps to mind.

digger50

It’s hard not to get caught up in the excitement of the draft.

The goal should be to get a top six or top four cost controlled player into the line up ASAP. So time until NHL readiness should be a factor in decision making.

If we can get that player this season via trade then it seems the right thing to do. Potential upside of a new draftee will be a question mark, but the certainty of an NHL player this season would be worth it. If Peter decided it’s the way to go – watch out – as he’ll make any deal. But if he can be selective a(patient) nd the right player comes available, it’s highly likely he makes the trade.

jtblack

Jaxon,

Thx for that.

Jaxon

I updated my draft rankings and mock drafts tracker for those who are interested:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

leadfarmer

Munny,

Lucic will be owed 16 mil over 4 years equaling 4 mil per year. If you retain 25% that’s 3 mil a year that they will owe. You have to retain same percentage of salary as cap so 4.5 mil cap a year on a 3 mil salary Carolina would have to pay.

OriginalPouzar

Oilman99:
$2mil retained,and lots of teams will be interested, specially when you know the guy will have a somewhat bounce back season.

While I personally think that he will have a bit of a bounce back season (around 20-25-45), I don’t think its a foregone conclusion at all.

People think he has only been regressing for one year but its been two. Yes, he had 50 points in his first season but it was due to a one-off PP heater where he produced on the PP at career highs – near double his previous career highs. He’s never produced on the PP before and he’s highly unlikely to do so again. His even strength numbers in his first season were actually a tiny bit worse than this past season.

OriginalPouzar

Oilman99: Guys like Brodziak are on a downward spiral we already witnessed that last year with Letestu. Malone demonstrated that he can fill the role.

Malone demonstrated the opposite, that he cannot fill the role – he was awful in the games that he played and hurt to team by taking bad penalties, more than once.

He’s not an NHL player and he’s not going to get any better, in fact, a decline as he approaches 30 isn’t even out of the question.

Jaxon

ArmchairGM: I read that too – since writing that post. Of course, he may be cherry-picking clips to suit his narrative too, you’d have to trust your scouts in this situation.

Merkley also shows up much better by the numbers, too, according to that other Athletic article. But at #10? That’s a stretch. Hopefully Wahlstrom drops to 10…

There’s some warts on both of them there picks. I don’t think I’d gamble with only one pick at #10 on Merkley or Boqvist although I think I’d be more comfortable with Merkley at this stage. Hell, I think I’d draft LHD K’Andre Miller before them and he is generally ranked in the #28 range. If Dobson and Bouchard are gone by #10, maybe they go with a forward like Kupari, Kravtsov or Bokk at #10 (or Veleno, but I’m not as high on him as I once was). That said, I’m still intrigued by Merkley’s upside and like Pronman’s assessment of his deficiencies and issues as overblown.

0% chance: Dahlin, Svechnikov
Shocked if they fall far enough: Zadina, Tkachuk, Hughes
Lucky if they fall to 10: Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi, Bouchard, Dobson
Too risky: Boqvist, Merkley
Likely available in that range: Ty Smith, Joe Veleno, Joel Farabee, Barrett Hayton
I’d be happy if they gambled on speed or production with these: Kupari, Bokk, Kravtsov
My favourite gamble: K’Andre Miller.

I would not be upset if they drafted one of these guys at #10:
– Kravtsov’s production in the KHL is very impressive (up there with the top of the draft)
– K’Andre Miller’s production in the USHL is up there with the best in the draft.
– I would love to see fellow German, Bokk, playing with Draisaitl.
– Kupari is one of the fastest players in the draft.
– I have my reservations about Farabee, just based on his low estimated TOI.
– Veleno is a tough one to figure out. Scouting reports are glowing, former exceptional status player and his production since being traded this year matched Zadina’s
– Serron Noel is the 3rd most productive forward in Canadian Jr this year and he’s one of the youngest players, plus he’s physical, fast and huge.
– Merkley’s upside and skills are too good to ignore. One of the fastest skaters, one of the best passers and stickhandlers, with one of the highest hockey IQs in the draft.

I’d assume they did their homework on them and feel they would be a great fit.

Munny

leadfarmer:
Munny,

Im saying to the team that’s acquiring him.Let’s say you trade him next offseason to Carolina who is trying to get size.If you trade him after July 1 at 25% retained that’s 3 mil a year in money for the rest of his contract and a 4.5 mil cap hit.That’s very workable for a 3rd line player on a team that cap floor is a number they pay more attention to than cap ceiling

So we’re paying Lucic $12M a year? Because 3 is 25 percent of 12.

Looks like you have the cap hit straightened out. Savings of $1.5M to the recipient team.

Because this is a declining contract, I believe the actual salary is irrelevant. The amount we contribute to his actual paycheque, annually, is identical to the caphit savings… or else the numbers don’t work. That is we don’t contribute 25 percent of his actual cheque but whatever the cap retained amount is.

So $1.5M to the recipient team, either way.

Oilman99

OriginalPouzar: Lucic straight up, no strings attached, I don’t think any team will take the contract on.

Lucic with 50% salary retained (the max) could likely fetch a decent asset.

Lucic with 25% salary retained, I’m unsure.

OriginalPouzar: Lucic straight up, no strings attached, I don’t think any team will take the contract on.

Lucic with 50% salary retained (the max) could likely fetch a decent asset.

Lucic with 25% salary retained, I’m unsure.

$2mil retained,and lots of teams will be interested, specially when you know the guy will have a somewhat bounce back season.

Oilman99

OriginalPouzar:
I can’t be on board with Brad Malone being on the opening night roster – established NHL veterans will be available for cheap – guys like Kyle Brodziak, etc.

Guys like Brodziak are on a downward spiral we already witnessed that last year with Letestu. Malone demonstrated that he can fill the role.

leadfarmer

Munny,

Im saying to the team that’s acquiring him. Let’s say you trade him next offseason to Carolina who is trying to get size. If you trade him after July 1 at 25% retained that’s 3 mil a year in money for the rest of his contract and a 4.5 mil cap hit. That’s very workable for a 3rd line player on a team that cap floor is a number they pay more attention to than cap ceiling

Andy Dufresne

Marc:
Bob Stauffer

Verified account

@Bob_Stauffer2h2 hours ago
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Projected top 9 for NHL Draft:

#1. Dahlin-BUF
#2. Svechnikov-CAR
#3. Kotkaniemi-MTL
#4. Dobson-OTT
#5. Tkachuk-ARI
#6. Hughes-DET
#7. Bouchard-VAN
#8. Wahlstrom-CHI
#9. Zadina-NYR

Leaving EDM one of Smith, Hayton,Kravtsov or Boqvist at #10.
I believe they take Hayton or Smith

I’d be very happy with Smith, but am very nervous about Hayton. I know he’s young, but I don’t think he scores enough to be a top 10 pick.I suspect that in 5 years whoever takes him has a player that looks a lot like Ryan Strome, which is useful, but not if there’s anyone who projects to be a top 4 D still available.

Same 9 guys as McKenzies list

As McKenzie states, ” a number of notable draft developments that have unfolded over the last couple of months that could make even the top 10 of this Friday’s draft more unpredictable than originally anticipated.”

All we need is for one team to pick out of order for us to get one of these 9 guys. Im pretty sure NO draft has ever gone exactly as predicted for the top 9 or 10.

I think there is an above average chance that we get one of these 9 guys and dont have to decide between Smith, Hayton,Kravtsov or Boqvist

ArmchairGM

Jaxon: I initially thought Boqvist was the way to go, but after reading JD Burke’s article on The Athletic, I don’t think I’d touch this kid with a ten-foot pole. There is some majorly aggravating footage of a player who really doesn’t give a shit about his team. Blowing the zone to cheat for offense as a D while his teammates are trapped. Giving up on a backcheck. Some ugly, ugly stuff. Add the size issue and a recent history of concussions and I’m avoiding him like the plague on draft day.

https://theathletic.com/393183/2018/06/18/the-give-and-take-and-boom-bust-potential-of-defence-prospect-adam-boqvist/

No thanks. There’s a reason he’s dropping in the rankings. If they’re going to gamble on a small offensive RHD with defensive issues, then I’d rather they go Merkley. At least his blunders on D are often because of his passion, not his lack of it. Probably neither is the way to go if you only have one pick in the first round. I’d defnitely gamble on those guys if I had multiple picks.

I read that too – since writing that post. Of course, he may be cherry-picking clips to suit his narrative too, you’d have to trust your scouts in this situation.

Merkley also shows up much better by the numbers, too, according to that other Athletic article. But at #10? That’s a stretch. Hopefully Wahlstrom drops to 10…

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer:
I think someone take Hayton sooner than expected thinking they’re smarter than everyone else and find out very quickly that they are not

Here is hoping its not the Oilers…….

Munny

leadfarmer: Lucic in one year at 25% retained is 3 mil in real dollars per year.That has value

Don’t you mean $2M in real cap space… and even less in real dollars?

‘*Edit: even my arithmetic is failing me at the end of the day… $1.5M

Jaxon

ArmchairGM: OriginalPouzar:
Calen Addison potentially available at 40 is extremely exciting as well.

I thought so too. I would like to see Boqvist, Addison and McShane / Gruden nabbed with the 1st three picks. Can’t have too many RD.

I initially thought Boqvist was the way to go, but after reading JD Burke’s article on The Athletic, I don’t think I’d touch this kid with a ten-foot pole. There is some majorly aggravating footage of a player who really doesn’t give a shit about his team. Blowing the zone to cheat for offense as a D while his teammates are trapped. Giving up on a backcheck. Some ugly, ugly stuff. Add the size issue and a recent history of concussions and I’m avoiding him like the plague on draft day.

https://theathletic.com/393183/2018/06/18/the-give-and-take-and-boom-bust-potential-of-defence-prospect-adam-boqvist/

No thanks. There’s a reason he’s dropping in the rankings. If they’re going to gamble on a small offensive RHD with defensive issues, then I’d rather they go Merkley. At least his blunders on D are often because of his passion, not his lack of it. Probably neither is the way to go if you only have one pick in the first round. I’d defnitely gamble on those guys if I had multiple picks.

Munny

Brantford Boy,

Not me. I have him lowest of the top Dmen. Scouts continue to surprise me with their emphasis on small sample sizes. I watched the entire Mem Cup and there was nothing there that said to me, “this is the second-best Dman after Dahlin.”

He just doesn’t look offensively dynamic enough. Maybe a Bogosian or a Schenn.

leadfarmer

I think someone take Hayton sooner than expected thinking they’re smarter than everyone else and find out very quickly that they are not

Rondo

Brantford Boy,

13 players not the order.

Mine was a mock.

Brantford Boy

Munny:
Dobson was the biggest surprise for me on Bob’s list.

I hear you, thought for sure he was going in the top 5…

Brantford Boy
JimmyV1965

I’ve been arguing all year that we should trade down in the draft, but now I’m thinking about a complete 180 and wondering what the cost would be to trade up.

The draft is shaping up to be real interesting. The wingers are dropping like rocks because everyone wants a C or D. Unfortunately, I don’t think any of the top end guys will be available by the 10th. Wonder what it would cost to trade up to 3 or 6 or 7 or even 8? Even at 8 I think there’s a good chance we get Wahlstrom.

Would the Habs even consider something like Strome and the 10 for 3? Or maybe the 10 and 40 for 3 and 61? Or maybe the 10 and 40 to the Wings for 6 and 67?

Geez, it seems like there’s this amazing opportunity to grab a great winger and it’s just out of our reach.

Rondo

Take Wahlstrom or Kravtsov at #10

Take Nils Lundkvist at #40