Draft Post No. 6: Letting The Days Go By (Water Flowing Underground)

The Bob McKenzie list is unique, it’s the industry standard. We can argue amongst ourselves, read Pronman, Button, Red Line, et cetera, but BM comes at it from the other way. He isn’t projecting talent, he’s tabulating votes and telling us what the hockey industry sees. My bet is NHL teams also want to see the list, to compare their own expertise with the groupthink. Question for the group: How much of a team’s list gets altered due to the McKenzie list?

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: A tough and important week for Peter Chiarelli
  • New Corey Pronman: 2018 Mock Draft.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Ranking the 2018 draft based on statistical performance.
  • Lowetide: The WHL draft pool 2018: Where are the forwards?
  • Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
  • Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

  • 20 OHL kids (23 a year ago), 6 WHL, down from 21. WOW. 15 USHL kids, 15 last year. This is the third junior league now, but this year the USHL trails only the OHL.
  • The Oilers probably hope someone from the top 9 on BM’s list falls.
  • At No. 10, based on the list, Edmonton may get their choice of Adam Boqvist, Barrett Hayton, Ty Smith or Vitali Kravtsov.
  • At No. 40, Jonatan Berggren, Jesse Ylonen, Calen Addison and Jett Woo may be available.
  • At No. 71? Allan McShane, Jon Gruden.

MCKENZIE LOWETIDE COMPARE 

  • The top 12 have no surprises, just shuffling. The Russian Kravtsov spiked and Ty Smith went the wrong way and that might be his spring performance. Kaut is higher on all lists than mine, he didn’t give math much to go on.
  • Farabee is a favourite, I’d be fine if the Oilers drafted him at No. 10.
  • If any of the top 9 are available, Edmonton takes him. After that, it could be a trade, Ty Smith, maybe someone like Farabee. The Oilers shop the USHL now, we should keep that in mind.
  • This thing is going to go off the grid by No. 20 overall.

CURRENT PROSPECTS BY TYPE

  • The key point in all of these names? There’s just one “A” list player, Kailer Yamamoto. Everyone else is going to have to work hard, develop quickly and receive a little luck.
  • Players in green will (or could) play pro hockey this fall, players in blue are not slated to play pro hockey in 2018-19.
  • Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones will be the first wave of young blue coming up, but there are plenty more. It’s a position of strength, as long as the club retains Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Darnell Nurse continues to develop.
  • Center is so strong at the NHL level it’s silly to complain about depth bubbling under, but a two-way center like Barrett Hayton wouldn’t go amiss.
  • Scoring wingers will need to be added, man if they could get Oliver Wahlstrom that could be a big moment for the McDavid cluster.
  • My ideal draft using the McKenzie list? Ty Smith, Jonatan Berggren, Jon Gruden.
  • I think the Oilers may draft Ty Smith at No. 10 overall. I’ll be thrilled, some of you may not be excited. I gave me reasons why he’s among the best players in the draft here. Included is a quote from a scout who concluded “new age defender with a very high ceiling in today’s game.”

Hmm. What would St. Louis be interested in? The No. 10 overall pick for sure, and we’ve long established Oscar Klefbom is vulnerable to trade (due to lack of other viable options). For me the key element for the Blues might be Jesse Puljujarvi. He fits the team’s template (big, can skate, skilled) and management might feel this is their last best chance to grab Puljujarvi before he’s part of the McDavid cluster moving forward. They would be right of course. Klefbom and No. 10 overall for Parayko? Wild times.

NURSE’S DEAL

  • From time to time, I use Puck IQ numbers. The general idea of their measurements is to “bin” opponents into elite, mid-level and soft opposition, and then see performance in each of the disciplines. The key measure is “Dangerous Fenwick”, described as “a weighted shot metric that takes into account the distance and type of unblocked shot at the net and applies the probability of that type of shot becoming a goal” (based on five years of NHL shot/goal data. Works very similar to Expected Goals and is described further here.)
  • I’m a fan of Darnell Nurse but there’s many miles to go with this player. He had a strong start to the year (Corsi for 5×5 after 41 games: 54.97 percent) but then faded (Corsi for 5×5 final 41 games: 47.37). A bridge deal is the correct play here.
  • His DFF shows he was playing too many minutes against elites and having trouble with that assignment. Nurse is a fine young defender but needs help to play second pairing in my opinion, and is completely miscast as a top pairing option at this time. Bridge deal.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Will the Oilers make a trade today? Is Bob foreshadowing? We have a brilliant group of guests this morning.

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. We’ll chat about his recent article, a brilliant use of statistics to grade out draft eligible prospects.
  • Andrew Stoeten, The Athletic. Jays approach trade deadlines with some interesting options, and some of the youngsters are showing well.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. The big Senators-Sharks trade and what Peter Chiarelli might do this week.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

 

 

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263 Responses to "Draft Post No. 6: Letting The Days Go By (Water Flowing Underground)"

« Older Comments
  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t get why Ottawa made that trade.I would have rather just waived him

    I think getting to the cap floor is an issue.

    Also,

    I don’t think they value NHL players very well.

    Also,

    It *immediately* came out from Custance (who knows everyone) that Dorian was directly not to trade in division (FLA) so that hamstrung Dorian a bit.

    Having a policy of not trading in division means you can be sure the management of the team you cheer for are not really sure what they are doing.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jm363561: I did the same exercise and reckoned, on a line by line, pair by pair, basis, Connor definitely (although Kuznetsov is a fabulous player), and possibly Draisaitl and Larsson, might have made the Caps team. I am really disappointed with the state of our 23 man roster, the lack of depth, the cap situation, and the Coach. Can’t wait for October

    Draisaitl will be 23 in October and hasn’t posted a GF% north of 50% on a line he has centered yet…..

  3. Munny says:

    JustWatt: It sounds like Nashville might be over their crush on PK

    Source?

    Poile has shot down the trade rumours twice in the past month… most recently to Lebrun:

    http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/predators-gm-david-poile-says-hes-not-trading-p-k-subban

  4. leadfarmer says:

    I’m glad to see the USHL USNDP getting the recognition they deserve. After the OHL they have become the second best development junior league, doesn’t have the depth of OHL but has the top players. If you compare them now to the Thomas Vanek Sioux Falls musketeers you will see a huge improvement. Yet I don’t think it’s been entirely noticed
    I hope we shop OHL USHL heavy.
    Cmon give me some Wahlstrom!!!

  5. Harpers Hair says:

    Looks like the cap is going to come in at $79M

  6. Rondo says:

    Kravtsov at #10 Nils Lundkvist or Jay O’Brien at #40

  7. Professor Q says:

    Munny:
    Yak just named 45th worst 1st overall pick out of 49 picks by TSN.

    Daigle, Wickenheiser, Joly, Lawton only picks worse. Stefan finished one ahead.

    Phillips has got to be near there, too.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – One of the aspects of the CBA is the allocation of these bonuses for players on their entry deals.First, there is a 7.5% “cushion” should players achieve these, second these bonuses are only “allocated the year after”

    – Pool’s cap hit this year is $925K, full stop, no ifs and or buts: you calculate the bonuses for next year (the proverbial kick the can down the road)

    – Jesse’s potential $2.5MM of bonus doesn’t effect this year’s cap

    – I know you have often stated that there is no cap space.Assuming bridge for Nurse, and 2×3 for Strome, I think you are incorrect.If the Cap is $82MM, we have even more room.

    – Mind you it doesn’t matter, because there will be other moves that will no doubt create space.

    Management will undoubtedly take in to account Jesse’s bonuses and include a cushion in their calculations. To not do so and risk a penalty which reduces our cap for next year would be egregious.

    Yes, his cap hit for this year is technically $925K, I am sure the team accounts for at least $2M in their calculations.

    So, as I said, they are at apx $75M with a 19 player roster leaving about $5M for 4 players – sure, it could be $7M, it could not be.

    There is no cap space for a material acquisition.

    Yes, of course they could dispose of existing contracts to make cap space, I think that it implied and doesn’t need to be said but, for clarity, I will revise my statement to “there is no cap space for material acquisitions unless they move out material cap space”.

  9. bendelson says:

    leadfarmer,

    4 1st round picks from the USDP team this year… minimum?
    8 players to be drafted?
    Impressive.

  10. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer,

    Apparently Halifax has even more players for this draft as well. What’s in the Maritime water that has those teams (Moncton Wildcats and SJ Sea Dogs, too) produce quality and quantity of players vs. the rest of the Q?

  11. JustWatt says:

    ArmchairGM: Yeah, I wasn’t actually thinking to include Lucic in the Panarin deal, just to get rid of the contract. Would you do Klefbom + JP + #10 for Panarin + #19 or whatever Columbus holds? Or maybe we convince CLB to go with Yamamoto instead – they didn’t seem to like JP the first time round.

    I’m probably being a homer here but that’s giving up two lesser but still excellent young players who are cost controlled and the much better pick in the swap for only one guaranteed year of Panarin who in the best case scenario costs a fortune to lock up long term and in the worst case scenario walks in one season. I’d be hesitant to give up only one of those two players in that deal. If he came extended, which I realize you postulated in an earlier post, it gets better and maybe you do it but only if you can dump all of Lucic’s salary for draft picks and no salary coming back sometime in the next 12 months or else Nuge would definitely have to go. I think I’d only do it if I knew that I could dump Lucic’s, Russel’s, and Sekera’s contracts in the next 12 months before his extension kicked in. And even then you can kiss that 2RD PP QB good bye. And that’s a very top heavy team. I think I’d pass and try for more balance.

  12. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think getting to the cap floor is an issue.

    Also,

    I don’t think they value NHL players very well.

    Also,

    It *immediately* came out from Custance (who knows everyone) that Dorian was directly not to trade in division (FLA) so that hamstrung Dorian a bit.

    Having a policy of not trading in division means you can be sure the management of the team you cheer for are not really sure what they are doing.

    Does the fact that Hoffman is back in the division make Karlsson more likely to go to the Western Conference?

  13. unca miltie says:

    Professor Q: Phillips has got to be near there, too.

    Surely you jest, 1179 NHL games is not anything close to a bad pick. and yes, I watched him as a junior, knew his parents.

  14. JustWatt says:

    Munny:
    Source?

    Poile has shot down the trade rumours twice in the past month… most recently to Lebrun:

    http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/predators-gm-david-poile-says-hes-not-trading-p-k-subban

    I honestly missed that. Hmm. That does make an Ellis trade/FA scenario more likely. Me likey.

  15. JustWatt says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Draisaitl will be 23 in October and hasn’t posted a GF% north of 50% on a line he has centered yet…..

    Honest question: are you implying something negative about Draisaitl or can that stat be explained by his lack of quality line mates?

  16. Professor Q says:

    unca miltie: Surely you jest, 1179 NHL games is not anything close to a bad pick. and yes, I watched him as a junior, knew his parents.

    For a first overall, a defensive defenceman, while long-tenured, might not have been the best pick. Mind you, 1996 was a terrible draft which was very grinder-heavy. Yet it still produced Briere and Chara, and a few better-known grinders which Phillips would certainly top, indeed. So I suppose in terms of his draft, not the worst and could have been better, but imagine if Ottawa had picked Briere and Chara and they had somehow still became the stars they became?

    From what I’ve read, too, is if Daigle had been given a better and more encouraging environment, he very well might have panned out. Similar to Yakupov, though maybe neither would be the 1st OV in a redraft of their respective years.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Professor Q,

    Well these rankings included the quality of players picked after them. Given that Daigle played the least amount of games in the top 10 except for Thibeault, the goalie picked 10 OV he gets to be the worst.
    Pronger
    Gratton
    Kariya
    Neidermeyer
    Kozlov
    Arnott

  18. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Orlov is good, but doesn’t defend nearly as well as Niskanen or Larsson yet.

    Its what you create minus what you give up.

    Yet?
    But he’s like a year and a half older than Larsson.

  19. Munny says:

    Professor Q: Phillips has got to be near there, too.

    1293 games. Doubt it.

  20. Munny says:

    Professor Q,

    Just checked… 25th, dead middle.

  21. Harpers Hair says:

    JustWatt: Honest question: are you implying something negative about Draisaitl or can that stat be explained by his lack of quality line mates?

    Draisaitl’s contract precludes him from having quality line mates.

  22. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Orlov is good, but doesn’t defend nearly as well as Niskanen or Larsson yet.
    Its what you create minus what you give up

    I think you need to check your stats again. I believe that Dman Savant Trotz also disagrees with you, considering he chooses to play Orlov more than Niskanen.

    Edit: So Orlov leads Niskanen in EV: TOI/gm, FF %, CF %, SF %, SCF %, HDCF %.

  23. Jaxon says:

    –hudson–: What I would look at is building an external consensus with all of the publicly available lists. Use central scouting, ISS, Woodlief, Pronman, BM etc. like what Jaxon is doing. If BM’s list is 10 scouts, those are 10 votes for Dahlin at 1. If central scouting is 20 scouts, that ranking gets 20 votes, and so on. You would want to validate this model with previous drafts to tune the votes in case the covariance between some of the lists is too high or low.

    Then you use this super-consensus list to make trades and extract as much value as you can out of each pick.

    I believe MyNHLDraft.com does this. And I think it weighs certain lists higher than others and possibly weighs lists by recency as well. Most lists aren’t so much a consensus of different scouts but an individual in charge of ranking the players based on their own observations or on what their own scouts tell them. McKenzie’s is an exception as he builds his through a sort of scout consensus I believe. I believe he also takes into account the team drafting as well. In that way, McKenzie’s is closer to a mock draft than a ranking. I believe Pronman (TA), Wheeler (TA), Boisvert, Button (TSN), Kournianos (Draft analyst), Cosentino (Sportsnet), Marek (Sportsnet) are their own observations. I’m not sure how much Fisher (THW), Pike (THW), Slawson (THW), Hunter (Puck Don’t Lie), and other writers are usually their own observations and listening to their sources. Lowetide’s is a well-informed, well-researched list relies heavily on scoring stats and his own scouting contacts. I think ISS, Red Line, Recrutes, Future Considerations, Dobber, Hockey Prospect, McKeen’s, etc. have their own team of scouts I believe and are considered professional scouting services. Jeremy Davis at Canuck’s Army does some really cool statistical analysis to come up with his rankings. Jonathan Willis also gave a very analytic approach to ranking at The Athletic.

    So it’s hard to weigh these accurately without an in-depth knowledge of how they build their lists. We could be doubling up on weighting in some cases.

    There is also some recency bias (good or bad) that creeps into these and they all inform and influence each other to some extent. Kotkaniemi is an interesting case study. I don’t think he played a game since March 28th, yet almost a month later he was still ranked in the 9 to 19 range.

    His ranking in chronological order after end of season:
    17,18,19,10,9,13,9,14
    Then on May 21st, Pronman ranked him 4th. Since then:
    11,16,11,12,6,5,13,8,5,3,7

    Mocks are even more drastic (mostly because MTL needs a C):
    Leafs Fansided Mock on April 12th had him drafted #18. After his season finished on Apr. 28th this is where he went in mock drafts:
    14,11,13,13,11,10,9,9
    Then OilersNation did their June 5th Mock and Dustin Nielson drafted him at #3, then:
    10,6,9,14,8,5,3,11,10,5,3,3

    He climbed a lot of rankings and Mocks without playing 1 game of hockey.
    Was he flying under the radar all season? Did the buzz take a life of its own? Is it largely a product of him being a center? Is this scouts wanting to be right on draft day and knowing that MTL really needs a C? What matches his true place in the draft? His rank right at the end of the season or his rank on Friday, right before the draft? Will he be the 3rd (June 22nd) best player in the draft? Or the 19th (Apr 28th)? It’s definitely been fun to track this and see how perceptions change even though not a lot of new player evaluation has happened (although, maybe some caught up with video and maybe combine and interviews influenced some people).

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

  24. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m frankly amazed that you think something like this can only happen with one team.

    The hubub around Lucic is that if it happens it will be a “hockey trade”, that’s closer to what Wilson did compared to a dump.

    I am merely responding to your implication that Chia could’ve manipulated the OTT trade the same way, but he’s no Wilson. Which Chia could not have done. Because Lucic won’t go to OTT.

    I have made no comment about a “dump”.

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: Management will undoubtedly take in to account Jesse’s bonuses and include a cushion in their calculations.To not do so and risk a penalty which reduces our cap for next year would be egregious.

    Yes, his cap hit for this year is technically $925K, I am sure the team accounts for at least $2M in their calculations.

    So, as I said, they are at apx $75M with a 19 player roster leaving about $5M for 4 players – sure, it could be $7M, it could not be.

    There is no cap space for a material acquisition.

    Yes, of course they could dispose of existing contracts to make cap space, I think that it implied and doesn’t need to be said but, for clarity, I will revise my statement to “there is no cap space for material acquisitions unless they move out material cap space”.

    – My understanding is that to use Pool as an example: if he hits all his bonus money this year, next year his cap hit is the greater of the approx. $3.3MM this year, or his new contract (which if he has th year we hope he will bet paid at least that)

    – There is no penalty for Pool hitting his bonuses and going over the cap: assuming that in total they don’t exceed this bonus by 7.5% of the cap: that’s a big cushion. The “penalty” is only that next year what he was paid this year is his min. cap hit. I think you are arriving at an incorrect conclusion when assessing Pool’s cap hit implications this year or next

    – Your concern about his cap only applies for players who hit their bonuses in say year 2, then their cap hit in year 3 is that AAV.

    – I’m using sportrac as my source for my calculations: they have a current cap of $68MM. So 12MM left (assuming $80MM cap)

    – So if Nurse + Strome = 7MM, $5MM for 3 players is left. That’s 2 $1MM players and a $3MM player isn’t it? Or 2 Rattie/Jar/Aberg/Kailer guys and a $3.5MM guy?

    – So they could get a $3MM player: I guess we are quibbling over definition of “material” in the absence of trades for more cap space.

  26. Jaxon says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – My understanding is that to use Pool as an example: if he hits all his bonus money this year, next year his cap hit is the greater of the approx. $3.3MM this year, or his new contract (which if he has th year we hope he will bet paid at least that)

    – Your concern about his cap only applies for players who hit their bonuses in say year 2, then their cap hit in year 3 is that AAV.

    – I’m using sportrac as my source for my calculations: they have a current cap of $68MM.So 12MM left (assuming $80MM cap)

    – So if Nurse + Strome = 7MM, $5MM for 3 players is left.That’s 2 $1MM players and a $3MM player isn’t it?Or 2 Rattie/Jar/Aberg/Kailer guys and a $3.5MM guy?

    – So they could get a $3MM player: I guess we are quibbling over definition of “material” in the absence of trades for more cap space.

    My understanding is that bonuses count against the cap in the same year they are achieved. The only thing it has to do with next year is that if you go over the cap with your bonuses, then your cap is decreased by that amount in the next season. so if the Oilers went right up against the cap (rumoured $79M) before his bonus and he achieves all of them, then they would be over the cap by his $2.6M in bonuses. That means, the following seaosn, the Oilers cap would be reduced by $2.6M. If the cap goes up by $3M the following season, then they’ll only have an extra $600k for new signings.

  27. Munny says:

    JustWatt: I honestly missed that. Hmm. That does make an Ellis trade/FA scenario more likely. Me likey.

    I don’t think Nashville is feeling any pressure to trade Ellis this off-season, and I get the impression Chia wants to deal with the D prior to next off-season.

    That said, you never know.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – My understanding is that to use Pool as an example: if he hits all his bonus money this year, next year his cap hit is the greater of the approx. $3.3MM this year, or his new contract (which if he has th year we hope he will bet paid at least that)

    – There is no penalty for Pool hitting his bonuses and going over the cap: assuming that in total they don’t exceed this bonus by 7.5% of the cap: that’s a big cushion.The “penalty” is only that next year what he was paid this year is his min. cap hit.I think you are arriving at an incorrect conclusion when assessing Pool’s cap hit implications this year or next

    – Your concern about his cap only applies for players who hit their bonuses in say year 2, then their cap hit in year 3 is that AAV.

    – I’m using sportrac as my source for my calculations: they have a current cap of $68MM.So 12MM left (assuming $80MM cap)

    – So if Nurse + Strome = 7MM, $5MM for 3 players is left.That’s 2 $1MM players and a $3MM player isn’t it?Or 2 Rattie/Jar/Aberg/Kailer guys and a $3.5MM guy?

    – So they could get a $3MM player: I guess we are quibbling over definition of “material” in the absence of trades for more cap space.

    No, I don’t believe this is correct.

    Bonuses count against the cap in the year they are earned.

    If the Oilers are left with $500K in cap room using a $925K cap hit for Jesse and he hits $1M worth of bonuses, the team will receive a $500K penalty next year where our upper cap limit will be reduced by that amount.

  29. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jaxon: My understanding is that bonuses count against the cap in the same year they are achieved. The only thing it has to do with next year is that if you go over the cap with your bonuses, then your cap is decreased by that amount in the next season. so if the Oilers went right up against the cap (rumoured $79M) before his bonus and he achieves all of them, then they would be over the cap by his $2.6M in bonuses. That means, the following seaosn, the Oilers cap would be reduced by $2.6M. If the cap goes up by $3M the following season, then they’ll only have an extra $600k for new signings.

    – I don’t work for the NHL (although one of my best friends does). I guess it’s hard to discuss when we aren’t entirely sure. My bad for talking about stuff without perfect info: not helpful

    – Here’s what I know: ” Performance bonuses count against the salary cap; however, a team can exceed the salary cap due to performance bonuses by the maximum performance bonus cushion amount of 7.5 percent of the upper limit.”

    – I’ve just assumed Pool’s bonuses have no practical impact on on the cap, becasue of this “cushion”, and we don’t have enough players who are going to effect this cushion.

    – i will leave now for toda!

  30. frjohnk says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Looks like the cap is going to come in at $79M

    Darn, I thought it would have come in over $80M.

  31. Munny says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t get why Ottawa made that trade.I would have rather just waived him

    Pretty sure there are no waivers right now, other than the unconditional ones during the buyout windows.

  32. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Looks like the cap is going to come in at $79M

    Source?

  33. frjohnk says:

    Munny: Source?

    Frank Seravalli
    ‏Verified account @frank_seravalli
    3h3 hours ago

    Players could vote for same growth inflator (1.35%) used last summer. At $79 million, it is the largest single-season cap jump since 2013-14.
    3 replies 15 retweets 34 likes
    Show this thread
    Frank Seravalli
    ‏Verified account @frank_seravalli
    4h4 hours ago

    Still some deliberating but sounds like 2018-19 #NHL salary cap has been narrowed down to between $79-80 million. Initial projection is that player escrow withholding starts under 10% for first time since 2011-12.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I don’t work for the NHL (although one of my best friends does). I guess it’s hard to discuss when we aren’t entirely sure.My bad for talking about stuff without perfect info: not helpful

    – Here’s what I know: ” Performance bonuses count against the salary cap; however, a team can exceed the salary cap due to performance bonuses by the maximum performance bonus cushion amount of 7.5 percent of the upper limit.”

    – I’ve just assumed Pool’s bonuses have no practical impact on on the cap, becasue of this “cushion”, and we don’t have enough players who are going to effect this cushion.

    – i will leave now for toda!

    Yes, they can exceed the cap by 7.5% including Jesse’s entire $2.5M in potential bonuses, however, if the bonuses vest and those that vest take us over the cap limit for this year – we receive a penalty for next year and our cap is reduced dollar for dollar by the amount of the bonuses that put us over.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Chris Johnston is also reporting the $79M.

  36. Munny says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Here’s what I know: ” Performance bonuses count against the salary cap; however, a team can exceed the salary cap due to performance bonuses by the maximum performance bonus cushion amount of 7.5 percent of the upper limit.”

    This is a cap limit clause. You can exceed the cap limit by 7.5% when you add salary to performance bonuses, however any excess paid over the cap limit reduces the cap limit for the next year (by the same amount as that excess). And while that isn’t an “egregious” event–especially if a team is expecting more cap space the following year–it can back you into a corner if such space doesn’t materialize.

    A corner no GM is going to let you out of.

  37. Munny says:

    frjohnk,

    Thank you, Padre.

  38. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Chris Johnston is also reporting the $79M.

    Looking at LT’s roster and caps hits from yesterday

    Oilers need to bridge Nurse for $3M per year.
    Get Strome in at $3M.

    That leaves about $4M to fill in 2nd line right winger, 4th line center, number 7 Dman.

  39. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: Draisaitl’s contract precludes him from having quality line mates.

    Lucic’s contract precludes Draisaitl from having proven quality linemates.

  40. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: Lucic’s contract precludes Draisaitl from having proven quality linemates.

    A little or a lot of both.

  41. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: Source?

    See above.

  42. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: See above.

    Lol… Ditto.

  43. innercitysmytty says:

    frjohnk,

    Per Cap Friendly that would leave $4.7 million with no bonuses – so you’re right to ballpark around $4 and maybe slightly less. That’s with a $79 million cap and Yamo off the team.

  44. Acumen says:

    http://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/matt-benning-doubles-down-with-edmonton-oilers

    We now have Matheson and Stauffer both dropping 55’s name completely out of the blue on the same day, with Matheson even providing the offer price. Colton Parayko has been my favorite player in the league since the second time I saw him play in his rookie year. If it’s Klefbom and the #10 I will be over the moon happy.

    Trying not to get too excited, but those are the two best guys who are historically the most plugged in with the OBC.

    So I’m getting excited.

  45. Alpine says:

    Acumen:
    http://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/matt-benning-doubles-down-with-edmonton-oilers

    We now have Matheson and Stauffer both dropping 55’s name completely out of the blue on the same day, with Matheson even providing the offer price. Colton Parayko has been my favorite player in the league since the second time I saw him play in his rookie year. If it’s Klefbom and the #10 I will be over the moon happy.

    Trying not to get too excited, but those are the two best guys who are historically the most plugged in with the OBC.

    So I’m getting excited.

    Seems like those two are just fantasizing out loud as they’ve been both known to do, Matty especially. I don’t think Klefbom would go for Parayko in that situation anyways. It would be Larsson. Blues would get a cheaper RHD back and they’d have more wiggle room if they land Tavares on whopper of a deal.

    They might like Klefbom more if they think Schmaltz can handle second pair soon. Great AHL Numbers but he’s barely seen the NHL yet.

  46. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Larsson

    Not sure I would take Kuzestnov over Drai either. He’s three years older and Drai has accomplished much more by age 22.

  47. rickithebear says:

    Jaxon: Hmmm… not sure I understand what you mean. Not following what? “Gruden!!!!!”? I’m a big fan of picking him sooner than anyone thinks he should be picked. He’s the true sleeper in the draft.

    #2 Svechnikov RW 6’2” 185lb (.633);
    45g 85p; 29evg 55 evp; Top 10 fwd

    #10 Wahlstrom RW 6’1” 195 lb (.686)
    40g 80p ; 30evg 52evp; Top 20 fwd
    ——————————————— #1 fwd

    #3 Zadina 6’1” 192 (.550)
    33g 61p; 25evg 43Evp; Upr #2 fwd

    #15 Noel 6’4” 200 (.724) Lwr #2 fwd
    29g 54p; 24evg 19eva 43 evp

    #64 Dundas 5’8” 159 (.688) Lwr #2 fwd
    28g 58p; 21evg 42 Evp

    #71 Gruden 6’0” 172 (.659); Lwr #2 fwd
    25g 57p; 18evg 45evp
    ————————————— #2 fwd

    #11 Farabee 5’11” 152 (.611) Upr #3 fwd
    22g 60p 17evg 45 Evp

    #82 Ranta 75; 6’1” 192 (.678) Upr #3 fwd
    31g 47p 24g 36 Evp

    #42 wise 5’10” 185 (.613) Lwr #3 fwd
    20g 60p 16evg 40 Evp
    —————————————— #3 fwd

    #18 Dellandrea 6’0” 180 (.713) Upr #4 fwd
    25g 55p; 14evg 32evp
    After nutrition change
    26g 59p; 15evg 38 Evp Upr #3 fwd

    #88 Fonstad 5’10” 162 (.653) Upr #4 fwd
    16g 54p; 12evg 35evp

    #46 HIllis 5’10” 168 (.694) Upr #4 fwd
    20g 60p; 11evg 40 Evp

    A lot of fwd depth in this draft.

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: I am merely responding to your implication that Chia could’ve manipulated the OTT trade the same way, but he’s no Wilson.Which Chia could not have done.Because Lucic won’t go to OTT.

    I have made no comment about a “dump”.

    I didn’t imply that Peter could do that with Lucic and OTT at all.

    I just showed what is possible.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: I think you need to check your stats again. I believe that Dman Savant Trotz also disagrees with you, considering he chooses to play Orlov more than Niskanen.

    Edit: So Orlov leads Niskanen in EV: TOI/gm, FF %, CF %, SF %, SCF %, HDCF %.

    Dman Savant Trotz also healthy scratched Schmidt a lot, who went on to anchor 1st pair on VGK the next year while Orpik never missed a shift.

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JustWatt: Honest question: are you implying something negative about Draisaitl or can that stat be explained by his lack of quality line mates?

    I’m implying something more negative about Drai I guess.

    I agree that “who a player plays with” matters a ton.

    My main point was that Drai not being above 50% GF and barely scratching 50%CF last year and not hitting 50% in either metric last year without McDavid would push him down the WSH/EDM list.

    He doesn’t have the track record that the WSH players have, with and without high quality team mates.

  51. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear: #18 Dellandrea 6’0” 180 (.713) Upr #4 fwd
    25g 55p; 14evg 32evp
    After nutrition change
    26g 59p; 15evg 38 Evp Upr #3 fwd

    Are you able to isolate Veleno’s numbers from around January 8th onward after he got traded. He’s intriguing because his pts/GP after the trade matched Zadina’s I think and the are no negatives in his scouting report (good skater, vision, high hockey IQ, good defensively, C, decent frame) plus he has that exceptional status history which puts him in Tavares, McDavid company. I wish I had his Estimated Primary Pts / 60 after the trade.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m implying something more negative about Drai I guess.

    I agree that “who a player plays with” matters a ton.

    My main point was that Drai not being above 50% GF and barely scratching 50%CF last yearand not hitting 50% in either metric last year without McDavid would push him down the WSH/EDM list.

    He doesn’t have the track record that the WSH players have, with and without high quality team mates.

    Drai was above 50% Corsi w/o McDavid last year – barely but, yes, above.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: Are you able to isolate Veleno’s numbers from around January 8th onward after he got traded. He’s intriguing because his pts/GP after the trade matched Zadina’s I think and the are no negatives in his scouting report (
    good skater, vision, high hockey IQ, good defensively, C, decent frame) plus he has that exceptional status history which puts him in Tavares, McDavid company. I wish I had his Estimated Primary Pts / 60 after the trade.

    I like Valeno but don’t really think much about exceptional status and put more stock in to accomplishments while in the CHL.

    Benson had exceptional status and, while I really like him going forward, its no longer really relevant to his potential.

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    innercitysmytty:
    frjohnk,

    Per Cap Friendly that would leave $4.7 million with no bonuses– so you’re right to ballpark around $4 and maybe slightly less. That’s with a $79 million cap and Yamo off the team.

    Yamamoto’s bonuses are negligible, $230k total, although he may start the season in Bakersfield anyway.

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: Are you able to isolate Veleno’s numbers from around January 8th onward after he got traded. He’s intriguing because his pts/GP after the trade matched Zadina’s I think and the are no negatives in his scouting report (good skater, vision, high hockey IQ, good defensively, C, decent frame) plus he has that exceptional status history which puts him in Tavares, McDavid company. I wish I had his Estimated Primary Pts / 60 after the trade.

    In this draft I see some interesting comps: Veleno reminds me of RNH while Kotkaniemi reminds me of Draisaitl. Wouldn’t mind having either guy percolating, although Kotkaniemi appears to be out of reach.

    And yes, Veleno’s vision and IQ is top-5. I wouldn’t put any stock in the exceptional status (snapshot in time), but there’s real talent there worthy of #10 OA. Just don’t expect him to become Leon’s shooter like Zadina could be…

  56. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: I like Valeno but don’t really think much about exceptional status and put more stock in to accomplishments while in the CHL.

    Benson had exceptional status and, while I really like him going forward, its no longer really relevant to his potential.

    I agree. I only bring it up as I find it intriguing. By no means should it be used as part of his current or future evaluation. You simply wonder what happened to his high-end potential or if he just progressed sooner than most and then leveled off. You also wonder if there have been mitigating factors in his development that have affected his production so there is a possibility of finding a gem later in round 1. Same goes for former 1st overalls in the Bantam drafts. the reality is that they are so young and raw at that age that it can go in any direction.

  57. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: In this draft I see some interesting comps: Veleno reminds me of RNH while Kotkaniemi reminds me of Draisaitl. Wouldn’t mind having either guy percolating, although Kotkaniemi appears to be out of reach.

    And yes, Veleno’s vision and IQ is top-5. I wouldn’t put any stock in the exceptional status (snapshot in time), but there’s real talent there worthy of #10 OA. Just don’t expect him to become Leon’s shooter like Zadina could be…

    For sure. I love the flexibility that drafting a C brings to the table, but a pure sniper/shooter is definitely needed for the Oilers and Veleno doesn’t really bring that. Also, I’ve found his production Primary Pts since being traded and they’re not all that great, so it didn’t really move the needle for me on him. On the plus side, his primary pts / 60 puts him in the Saad, Scheifelle range. But they were exceptions who didn’t produce that well in their draft seasons and there are about 40 no-name Canadian junior players who never made it to the NHL between them. Not very promising. You’d really have to lean on your scouts to make an argument for picking Veleno at #10 and I just don’t see it with his goal production.

  58. Jaxon says:

    PS
    ArmchairGM,

    OriginalPouzar,

    FYI Veleno was 1.84 Primary Pts/60 before the trade and 1.91 Primary Pts/60 after the trade. 1.87 on the year.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: In this draft I see some interesting comps: Veleno reminds me of RNH while Kotkaniemi reminds me of Draisaitl. Wouldn’t mind having either guy percolating, although Kotkaniemi appears to be out of reach.

    And yes, Veleno’s vision and IQ is top-5. I wouldn’t put any stock in the exceptional status (snapshot in time), but there’s real talent there worthy of #10 OA. Just don’t expect him to become Leon’s shooter like Zadina could be…

    Oh, yes, I like Valeno – great skater, great hockey IQ, already a developed 2-way game and, of course, good offence.

    He’s a stretch at 10 so, if they are looking to pick them, hopefully then can trade down a few spots and get another asset.

  60. Rondo says:

    Excellent read as usual.

    BLUE BULLET 2018 NHL ENTRY DRAFT GUIDE

    https://bluebulletreport.com/2018/06/20/blue-bullet-2018-nhl-entry-draft-guide/

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    Excellent read as usual.

    BLUE BULLET 2018 NHL ENTRY DRAFT GUIDE

    https://bluebulletreport.com/2018/06/20/blue-bullet-2018-nhl-entry-draft-guide/

    #10 Jesperi Kotkaniemi… so you’re saying there’s a chance? 😉

  62. Rondo says:

    ArmchairGM,

    He’s going #3 or #6 or #8.

  63. Blue Bullet says:

    ArmchairGM,

    A slim one. I think Kotkaniemi and Dobson are going to be selected higher than I have them rated. Out of my top 10 I think Boqvist is the most likely to be available at 10.

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