The Bob McKenzie list is unique, it’s the industry standard. We can argue amongst ourselves, read Pronman, Button, Red Line, et cetera, but BM comes at it from the other way. He isn’t projecting talent, he’s tabulating votes and telling us what the hockey industry sees. My bet is NHL teams also want to see the list, to compare their own expertise with the groupthink. Question for the group: How much of a team’s list gets altered due to the McKenzie list?
Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!
- New Lowetide: A tough and important week for Peter Chiarelli
- New Corey Pronman: 2018 Mock Draft.
- New Jonathan Willis: Ranking the 2018 draft based on statistical performance.
- Lowetide: The WHL draft pool 2018: Where are the forwards?
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
- Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
- Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
- Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
- Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
- Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
- Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers and the WHL.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
- Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.
#TSNHockey FINAL PROSPECT RANKING: As @TSNBobMcKenzie explains, Jesperi Kotkaniemi's late push could make the Top 10 of the draft more unpredictable than originally anticipated https://t.co/7fenY03uA6 #TSNHockey #DraftCentre pic.twitter.com/cETiqSqSpq
— TSN Hockey (@TSNHockey) June 18, 2018
- 20 OHL kids (23 a year ago), 6 WHL, down from 21. WOW. 15 USHL kids, 15 last year. This is the third junior league now, but this year the USHL trails only the OHL.
- The Oilers probably hope someone from the top 9 on BM’s list falls.
- At No. 10, based on the list, Edmonton may get their choice of Adam Boqvist, Barrett Hayton, Ty Smith or Vitali Kravtsov.
- At No. 40, Jonatan Berggren, Jesse Ylonen, Calen Addison and Jett Woo may be available.
- At No. 71? Allan McShane, Jon Gruden.
MCKENZIE LOWETIDE COMPARE
- The top 12 have no surprises, just shuffling. The Russian Kravtsov spiked and Ty Smith went the wrong way and that might be his spring performance. Kaut is higher on all lists than mine, he didn’t give math much to go on.
- Farabee is a favourite, I’d be fine if the Oilers drafted him at No. 10.
- If any of the top 9 are available, Edmonton takes him. After that, it could be a trade, Ty Smith, maybe someone like Farabee. The Oilers shop the USHL now, we should keep that in mind.
- This thing is going to go off the grid by No. 20 overall.
CURRENT PROSPECTS BY TYPE
- The key point in all of these names? There’s just one “A” list player, Kailer Yamamoto. Everyone else is going to have to work hard, develop quickly and receive a little luck.
- Players in green will (or could) play pro hockey this fall, players in blue are not slated to play pro hockey in 2018-19.
- Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones will be the first wave of young blue coming up, but there are plenty more. It’s a position of strength, as long as the club retains Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Darnell Nurse continues to develop.
- Center is so strong at the NHL level it’s silly to complain about depth bubbling under, but a two-way center like Barrett Hayton wouldn’t go amiss.
- Scoring wingers will need to be added, man if they could get Oliver Wahlstrom that could be a big moment for the McDavid cluster.
- My ideal draft using the McKenzie list? Ty Smith, Jonatan Berggren, Jon Gruden.
- I think the Oilers may draft Ty Smith at No. 10 overall. I’ll be thrilled, some of you may not be excited. I gave me reasons why he’s among the best players in the draft here. Included is a quote from a scout who concluded “new age defender with a very high ceiling in today’s game.”
You know who be the perfect "right shot D" for the Oilers?
Buried behind Alex Pietrangelo in St.Louis.
Hasn't reached offensive ceiling yet.
Understands Edmonton market.
Acquisition cost would be pricey though.
— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) June 19, 2018
Hmm. What would St. Louis be interested in? The No. 10 overall pick for sure, and we’ve long established Oscar Klefbom is vulnerable to trade (due to lack of other viable options). For me the key element for the Blues might be Jesse Puljujarvi. He fits the team’s template (big, can skate, skilled) and management might feel this is their last best chance to grab Puljujarvi before he’s part of the McDavid cluster moving forward. They would be right of course. Klefbom and No. 10 overall for Parayko? Wild times.
- From time to time, I use Puck IQ numbers. The general idea of their measurements is to “bin” opponents into elite, mid-level and soft opposition, and then see performance in each of the disciplines. The key measure is “Dangerous Fenwick”, described as “a weighted shot metric that takes into account the distance and type of unblocked shot at the net and applies the probability of that type of shot becoming a goal” (based on five years of NHL shot/goal data. Works very similar to Expected Goals and is described further here.)
- I’m a fan of Darnell Nurse but there’s many miles to go with this player. He had a strong start to the year (Corsi for 5×5 after 41 games: 54.97 percent) but then faded (Corsi for 5×5 final 41 games: 47.37). A bridge deal is the correct play here.
- His DFF shows he was playing too many minutes against elites and having trouble with that assignment. Nurse is a fine young defender but needs help to play second pairing in my opinion, and is completely miscast as a top pairing option at this time. Bridge deal.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Will the Oilers make a trade today? Is Bob foreshadowing? We have a brilliant group of guests this morning.
- Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. We’ll chat about his recent article, a brilliant use of statistics to grade out draft eligible prospects.
- Andrew Stoeten, The Athletic. Jays approach trade deadlines with some interesting options, and some of the youngsters are showing well.
- Scott Cullen, TSN. The big Senators-Sharks trade and what Peter Chiarelli might do this week.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!