Draft Post No. 6: Letting The Days Go By (Water Flowing Underground)

The Bob McKenzie list is unique, it’s the industry standard. We can argue amongst ourselves, read Pronman, Button, Red Line, et cetera, but BM comes at it from the other way. He isn’t projecting talent, he’s tabulating votes and telling us what the hockey industry sees. My bet is NHL teams also want to see the list, to compare their own expertise with the groupthink. Question for the group: How much of a team’s list gets altered due to the McKenzie list?

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: A tough and important week for Peter Chiarelli
  • New Corey Pronman: 2018 Mock Draft.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Ranking the 2018 draft based on statistical performance.
  • Lowetide: The WHL draft pool 2018: Where are the forwards?
  • Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
  • Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

  • 20 OHL kids (23 a year ago), 6 WHL, down from 21. WOW. 15 USHL kids, 15 last year. This is the third junior league now, but this year the USHL trails only the OHL.
  • The Oilers probably hope someone from the top 9 on BM’s list falls.
  • At No. 10, based on the list, Edmonton may get their choice of Adam Boqvist, Barrett Hayton, Ty Smith or Vitali Kravtsov.
  • At No. 40, Jonatan Berggren, Jesse Ylonen, Calen Addison and Jett Woo may be available.
  • At No. 71? Allan McShane, Jon Gruden.

MCKENZIE LOWETIDE COMPARE 

  • The top 12 have no surprises, just shuffling. The Russian Kravtsov spiked and Ty Smith went the wrong way and that might be his spring performance. Kaut is higher on all lists than mine, he didn’t give math much to go on.
  • Farabee is a favourite, I’d be fine if the Oilers drafted him at No. 10.
  • If any of the top 9 are available, Edmonton takes him. After that, it could be a trade, Ty Smith, maybe someone like Farabee. The Oilers shop the USHL now, we should keep that in mind.
  • This thing is going to go off the grid by No. 20 overall.

CURRENT PROSPECTS BY TYPE

  • The key point in all of these names? There’s just one “A” list player, Kailer Yamamoto. Everyone else is going to have to work hard, develop quickly and receive a little luck.
  • Players in green will (or could) play pro hockey this fall, players in blue are not slated to play pro hockey in 2018-19.
  • Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones will be the first wave of young blue coming up, but there are plenty more. It’s a position of strength, as long as the club retains Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Darnell Nurse continues to develop.
  • Center is so strong at the NHL level it’s silly to complain about depth bubbling under, but a two-way center like Barrett Hayton wouldn’t go amiss.
  • Scoring wingers will need to be added, man if they could get Oliver Wahlstrom that could be a big moment for the McDavid cluster.
  • My ideal draft using the McKenzie list? Ty Smith, Jonatan Berggren, Jon Gruden.
  • I think the Oilers may draft Ty Smith at No. 10 overall. I’ll be thrilled, some of you may not be excited. I gave me reasons why he’s among the best players in the draft here. Included is a quote from a scout who concluded “new age defender with a very high ceiling in today’s game.”

Hmm. What would St. Louis be interested in? The No. 10 overall pick for sure, and we’ve long established Oscar Klefbom is vulnerable to trade (due to lack of other viable options). For me the key element for the Blues might be Jesse Puljujarvi. He fits the team’s template (big, can skate, skilled) and management might feel this is their last best chance to grab Puljujarvi before he’s part of the McDavid cluster moving forward. They would be right of course. Klefbom and No. 10 overall for Parayko? Wild times.

NURSE’S DEAL

  • From time to time, I use Puck IQ numbers. The general idea of their measurements is to “bin” opponents into elite, mid-level and soft opposition, and then see performance in each of the disciplines. The key measure is “Dangerous Fenwick”, described as “a weighted shot metric that takes into account the distance and type of unblocked shot at the net and applies the probability of that type of shot becoming a goal” (based on five years of NHL shot/goal data. Works very similar to Expected Goals and is described further here.)
  • I’m a fan of Darnell Nurse but there’s many miles to go with this player. He had a strong start to the year (Corsi for 5×5 after 41 games: 54.97 percent) but then faded (Corsi for 5×5 final 41 games: 47.37). A bridge deal is the correct play here.
  • His DFF shows he was playing too many minutes against elites and having trouble with that assignment. Nurse is a fine young defender but needs help to play second pairing in my opinion, and is completely miscast as a top pairing option at this time. Bridge deal.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Will the Oilers make a trade today? Is Bob foreshadowing? We have a brilliant group of guests this morning.

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. We’ll chat about his recent article, a brilliant use of statistics to grade out draft eligible prospects.
  • Andrew Stoeten, The Athletic. Jays approach trade deadlines with some interesting options, and some of the youngsters are showing well.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. The big Senators-Sharks trade and what Peter Chiarelli might do this week.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

 

 

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263 Responses to "Draft Post No. 6: Letting The Days Go By (Water Flowing Underground)"

Newer Comments »
  1. Jethro Tull says:

    And you may say to yourself, “my God, what have I done?”

    Same as it ever was.

  2. Rondo says:

    Not a big fan of Farabee at #10 he played with 2 superstars on his line. Sam Gagner

    If I’m the Blues, Parayko for the #10 + Darnell Nurse.

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    Smoke around #10, Klef or Nurse and 3rd for Karlsson.

    It’s a deal. It’s a steal. It’s sale of the fuckin’ century. In fact fact, screw ya, I think I’ll keep it.

  4. godot10 says:

    I think Tyson Barrie and the Jack Hughes lottery ticket (the return of Ottawa 2019 first round) are the key pieces in a Karlsson deal to the Avalanche.

    Haven’t figured out what the 3rd piece is yet. The OIlers don’t have a Jack Hughes lottery ticket to offer.

  5. godot10 says:

    Re: Parayko. Montreal had Serge Savard, Larry Robinson, and Guy Lapointe…they didn’t think that was a problem. Why would St. Louis think Pieterangelo and Parayko, with their ideal age separation, a problem?

  6. trencan says:

    The Ottawa Senators have traded forward Mike Hoffman, defenseman Cody Donaghey and a 2020 5th round pick to the San Jose Sharks for forward Mikkel Boedker, defenseman Julius Bergman and a 2020 6th round pick.

    “Florida Panthers President of Hockey Operations & General Manager Dale Tallon announced today that the Panthers have acquired forward Mike Hoffman and a 2018 seventh round pick from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for Florida’s 2019 second round pick, 2018 fourth round pick and 2018 5th round pick.”

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Imagine if we get Whalstrom at 10 and Addison at 40 – just imagine.

    I don’t think either will be available at those spots but you never know.

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    Yay, no Nuge (trade) is good Nuge!

  9. Melman says:

    trencan,

    “Hi Johnny, this is Doug. Do you know the way to San Jose?”

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Imagine if we get Whalstrom at 10 and Addison at 40 – just imagine.

    I don’t think either will be available at those spots but you never know.

    Yep, I’m imagining the “Chia is an idiot” posts when they don’t pan out.

  11. T0ML says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Smoke around #10, Klef or Nurse and 3rd for Karlsson.

    It’s a deal. It’s a steal. It’s sale of the fuckin’ century. In fact fact, screw ya, I think I’ll keep it.

    Got a source for this smoke? Interested.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stauffer tweeting out how he’s realized that Parayko would be the perfect acquisition.

    Yes, Bob, we’ve known this for a long time – this is not a revelation – its also very unrealistic, the acquisition price would be enormous – the Blues have no reason to trade this kid who is on a great contract.

    I’m not even sure Klefbom and the 10th gets it done.

    Parayko is on another level, in the right age bracket, a rightie and on a great contract.

    Why would the Blues trade him for a lesser d-man and a good prospect?

  13. slopitch says:

    Sekera GFP… lordy. Understood he was hurt and will rebound.

    I brought up Parayko a while ago and it was mostly shutdown as “hes not available”. Parayko has struggled offensively but still moves the play the right direction. He’d be an absolute beauty. Id do Klefbom+ and I think it would take that or Drai (which is a non-starter imo). I have an inkling of hope that Walstrom will slide to 10 so I have a hard time moving the pick plus Klefbom is a very good player on a very good contract. I wouldnt move Klef+JP. But Id do the 2nd+Klef. Id do Bear or Jones. What about Klefbom+10 for Parayko+29. Fun times. Unfortunately its likely pure speculation for Stauffer.

    As for the draft. I like the top 9. I like Boquist/Smith just feel more comfortable with the others. Just need one off the board pick (and that will happen!)

  14. jtblack says:

    TRADE:

    To #Panthers:
    F Mike Hoffman
    2018 7th RD pick

    To #Sharks:
    2018 4th RD pick (VGK)
    2018 5th RD pick
    2019 2nd RD pick

  15. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Lol, yep!

    “This just in – Parayko is a good player. In other news, Ovie is really happy at winning a cup.”

  16. commonfan29 says:

    godot10: The OIlers don’t have a Jack Hughes lottery ticket to offer.

    If only that were true…

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Out of the “farther away” prospects, I’m exited about Maskimov – that guy is a shooter and a goal scorer.

    If you look at his goals from this past year, many of them are from the “Ovechkin spot”.

    He has a fantastic shot – hard, accurate, great release and he loves to shoot.

    I don’t think we’ve had a shooter like that since Jason Arnott.

    Here is hoping he develops his game to make it to the NHL b/c, if he does, he will score some goals.

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Lol, yep!

    “This just in – Parayko is a good player. In other news, Ovie is really happy at winning a cup.”

    Exactly – I don’t understand the point of Bob’s tweet – its not like he’s come to a revelation that noone else has and it doesn’t sound like there is anything to it other than him thinking about it.

    There is enough nonsense out there to try and wade through and he’s adding to it.

  19. npanciroli says:

    Why wouldn’t Ottawa just trade with Florida – am I missing something?

    Seems crazy good for SJ.

  20. npanciroli says:

    Parayko is a dream.

  21. LadiesloveSmid says:

    npanciroli:
    Why wouldn’t Ottawa just trade with Florida – am I missing something?

    Seems crazy good for SJ.

    Division rivals?

  22. Andy Dufresne says:

    npanciroli:
    Parayko is a dream.

    #ChiaTweaks

  23. Melvis says:

    How did I get here? How do I work this?

    My God – what have I done…

    Same as it ever was…

  24. cowboy bill says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Wahlstrom won’t be there . But Hayton or Veleno will and I believe there’s a strong possibly Addison will be there at 40 . I sure hope they don’t pick Ty Smith at 10 .

  25. Matticus says:

    LT would you rather trade #10 and klefbom or #10 and pulujarvi for parayko? Or not make the trade at all? think I wouldl keep Jesse more upside and we are ok on lhd.

  26. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Bob did correctly “predict” the Hall for Larsson Trade and the Eberle for Strome trade. He is somewhat connected.

    My guess, he is just throwing this out there to get people to listen to his show today. Hands up……… how many people will tune in today to hear his explanation for the tweet?

  27. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: Exactly – I don’t understand the point of Bob’s tweet – its not like he’s come to a revelation that noone else has and it doesn’t sound like there is anything to it other than him thinking about it.

    Isn’t that what tweets are for?

  28. dustrock says:

    npanciroli:
    Why wouldn’t Ottawa just trade with Florida – am I missing something?

    Seems crazy good for SJ.

    Tallon flat out admitted he didn’t offer the same package to Ottawa. Dorion asked about a trade directly.

    Hoo boy.

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: Exactly – I don’t understand the point of Bob’s tweet – its not like he’s come to a revelation that noone else has and it doesn’t sound like there is anything to it other than him thinking about it.

    There is enough nonsense out there to try and wade through and he’s adding to it.

    Because Bob is a weather vane. When he says things like this, there’s a specific point he’s making.

  30. texmex says:

    Parayko?????

    Ryan Rishaug

    Verified account

    @TSNRyanRishaug
    1m1 minute ago
    More
    My sense at this point is that as much as they may need a PP quarterback, Erik Karlsson is not going to be an option for the Oilers. I believe Chiarelli will be aggressive in trying to fill this need this off season.

  31. Numenius says:

    texmex:
    Parayko?????

    Ryan Rishaug

    Verified account

    @TSNRyanRishaug1m1 minute ago
    More
    My sense at this point is that as much as they may need a PP quarterback, Erik Karlsson is not going to be an option for the Oilers.I believe Chiarelli will be aggressive in trying to fill this need this off season.

    Scary words to see together: “Chiarelli” and “aggressive”.

    Although I’m glad to hear he won’t be chasing Karlsson.

  32. texmex says:

    Anyone know when the league is going to announce the salary cap for next season? I thought I read June 18th, but obviously not.

  33. judgedrude says:

    Numenius: Scary words to see together: “Chiarelli” and “aggressive”.

    That sounds like a Nuge for Weber trade.

  34. Marc says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Smoke around #10, Klef or Nurse and 3rd for Karlsson.

    It’s a deal. It’s a steal. It’s sale of the fuckin’ century. In fact fact, screw ya, I think I’ll keep it.

    Ottawa seems to be targeting guys who have cap hits higher than their actually salary – which suggests that they have a cash flow problem and foresee a cap floor problem.

    That might make Klef slightly less and Sekera slightly more attractive for the purposes of a deal for Karlsson.

  35. McSorley33 says:

    There’s just one “A” list player, Kailer Yamamoto. Everyone else is going to have to work hard, develop quickly and receive a little luck.
    ***********************************************************************************************************
    Truth.

  36. stevebergeron97 says:

    npanciroli,

    Tallon said he couldn’t offer the same package to Ottawa as San Jose could. San Jose essentially made the trade to dump Boedkers contract and accumulate picks/prospects.

  37. Jaxon says:

    Not only was Nurse a top pairing D, but he was top 6 in 5-on-5 TOI in the entire NHL Only players ahead of him: Doughty, Orlov, Ceci, Burns, Gardiner. Of 133 D with over 1000 minute at 5-on-5 he was 58th in points/60, which is top pairing. He was 39th in 5-on-5 pts in the NHL with 20. Just ahead of him with 21: McAvoy, Giordano, Vlasic, Suter. tied with him: Maatta, Ekblad. Just behind him with 19: Pulock, Morrisey, Matheson, Muzzin, Chara. With 18: Ekholm, Ekman-Larsson, Byfuglien. I’m afraid he’s going to get paid, and quite well.

  38. McSorley33 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Imagine if we get Whalstrom at 10 and Addison at 40 – just imagine.

    I don’t think either will be available at those spots but you never know.
    *************************************************************************************************
    Same page….since we are Oilers fans. We know this won’t come true…

  39. Jaxon says:

    Gruden!!!!!!!

  40. Jethro Tull says:

    Jaxon,

    Not following, old chap/chappess.

  41. Jaxon says:

    Nitpicking but I think I’d call Bear a puck mover and Benson a scoring forward.

  42. bendelson says:

    So I started last fall ‘hoping’ for a chance at Walhlsrom and Addison. Then, became convinced by December that both were on the rise and likely to be out of reach for Edmonton. I changed my focus to Kotkaniemi and Berggren/Foudy. Well… so much for that!
    Back to hoping for Wahlstrom and Addison!

    Note: Still expecting Ty Smith and… well, Milos Roman (though he isn’t even on Bob’s list).

    Same as it ever was…

    Am I right? Am I wrong?

  43. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon:
    Gruden!!!!!!!

    Jay or John?

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    When thinking about a Karlsson acquisition, I think we all need to keep in mind that there is absolutely no guarantee that he signs an extension with the Oilers.

    Pierre LeBrun advised that expressly (not related to the Oilers but in general) on the Lowetide yesterday.

    Also, lets not forget that the Oilers were on Karlsson’s no trade list a while back (as far as I know) so, even if he accepts a trade to Edmonton now to get away from Ottawa, its very likely he will test free agency.

    He has also expressed the desire to get what he’s worth in free agency so, if he does re-sign, I don’t imagine it will be under $10M per year.

    I’d love the player on this team but the risk is too big for me on the anticipated acquisition cost.

  45. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Do you think Doughty would be a better bet?

  46. Jaxon says:

    Would anyone here trade Caleb Jones for a 2nd round pick? Say Jones to CBJ for pick #49? would you want more in return? Would they want more than Jones? Probably? Jones and 133 for #49? Or would it take #71 and Jones? What I’m getting at is trading up to pick Gruden a bit ahead of consensus rankings to ensure you could grab him. Idiotic?

  47. Jaxon says:

    Professor Q: Jay or John?

    Johnny (Jr)

  48. Jaxon says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Jaxon,

    Not following, old chap/chappess.

    Hmmm… not sure I understand what you mean. Not following what? “Gruden!!!!!”? I’m a big fan of picking him sooner than anyone thinks he should be picked. He’s the true sleeper in the draft.

  49. godot10 says:

    npanciroli:
    Why wouldn’t Ottawa just trade with Florida – am I missing something?

    Seems crazy good for SJ.

    Division rival.
    Florida didn’t want to give up a player, only draft picks. Ottawa needed an actual player back.
    San Jose was looking to free up cap space by dumping Boeddeker for draft picks.

  50. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon:
    Would anyone here trade Caleb Jones for a 2nd round pick? Say Jones to CBJ for pick #49? would you want more in return? Would they want more than Jones? Probably? Jones and 133 for #49? Or would it take #71 and Jones? What I’m getting at is trading up to pick Gruden a bit ahead of consensus rankings to ensure you could grab him. Idiotic?

    If he suddenly becomes a highly sought-after prospect, I suppose you could say his draft ranking finally Gruden.

  51. Jaxon says:

    Professor Q: If he suddenly becomes a highly sought-after prospect, I suppose you could say his draft ranking finally Gruden.

    Wah-wah-waaaaah.

  52. godot10 says:

    Matticus:
    LT would you rather trade #10 and klefbom or #10 and pulujarvi for parayko? Or not make the trade at all?think I wouldl keep Jesse more upside and we are ok on lhd.

    Klefbom and Nugent-Hopkins might get you Parayko.

  53. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon,

    I’ve grown a bit rusty with all my time away from here this season.

  54. texmex says:

    Frank Seravalli

    Verified account

    @frank_seravalli
    2m2 minutes ago
    More Frank Seravalli Retweeted Ryan Rishaug
    I believe the #Oilers are one of the 10 teams on Erik Karlsson’s no-trade list. Hard to say with 100% certainty as these lists change and they can change at any instance. Aside from figuring out how EDM pulls it off, my impression was a few months back it was a non-starter.

  55. Professor Q says:

    godot10: Klefbom and Nugent-Hopkins might get you Parayko.

    Maybe those two would get you Parayko and two firsts. Him alone…yikes.

  56. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Not a big fan of Farabeeat #10 he played with 2 superstars on his line. Sam Gagner

    If I’m the Blues, Parayko for the #10 + Darnell Nurse.

    Also, eTOI is a red flag for me. I know I’ve said this before and received some pushback and questions about how they estimate TOI, but draft prospects who played less than 13.25 eTOI in their draft season were often busts or NHLers who struggled with consistency even though their draft season stats were very elite. Add that to his linemates and it adds up to a possibly highly overrated player.

  57. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Adam Mascherin not on the BM list is also interesting.

    10 .. Whalstrom or Smith
    41 .. Addison
    70 .. Gruden
    133 .. Mascherin
    164 .. goalie

    Could be an historic haul…

  58. Brantford Boy says:

    I picked Farabee for the #10 in Kingers pool… little surprised to see him fall that far on Bobs list… thought he’d end up in the 12-14 range…

    As for LT’s question for the group; “How much of a team’s list gets altered due to the McKenzie list?”

    I suspect its somewhat significant but it couldn’t be galling as it would infer the scouts on that team are clueless… I have no evidence but I’ll throw out 15%, any more and people should get fired. Meaning they have there list 85% the way those scouts see it, review BM’s list and “tweak” it. So in 100 names there changing order 15 times… regardless, its still significant.

  59. Wilde says:

    joel farabee

  60. errorjordan says:

    Last year Owen Tippett was the best sniper in the draft and consensus top 5 pick who went 10th overall to FLA. Hoping history repeats itself with Whalstrom to the Oil.

  61. Marc says:

    Jaxon:
    Would anyone here trade Caleb Jones for a 2nd round pick? Say Jones to CBJ for pick #49? would you want more in return? Would they want more than Jones? Probably? Jones and 133 for #49? Or would it take #71 and Jones? What I’m getting at is trading up to pick Gruden a bit ahead of consensus rankings to ensure you could grab him. Idiotic?

    Nope.

    A second round pick has got around a 25% chance of playing 200 NHL games and around a 10% chance of being an impact NHL player.

    By making the AHL as a 20 year old, Jones’ odds are at least as good as that, and we’ll find out in the next couple of years, not the 4-5 years if will take someone drafted this year to develop.

  62. N64 says:

    Brantford Boy: “How much of a team’s list gets altered due to the McKenzie list

    VOR,

    I recall you noticing some sub draft anamolies and wondering if the McKenzie list was disrupting optimal drafting. Were you able to dig into that?

  63. McSorley33 says:

    How about we draft our own Colton Parayko ?

  64. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Stauffer tweeting out how he’s realized that Parayko would be the perfect acquisition.

    Yes, Bob, we’ve known this for a long time – this is not a revelation – its also very unrealistic, the acquisition price would be enormous – the Blues have no reason to trade this kid who is on a great contract.

    I’m not even sure Klefbom and the 10th gets it done.

    Parayko is on another level, in the right age bracket, a rightie and on a great contract.

    Why would the Blues trade him for a lesser d-man and a good prospect?

    Stauffer is connected,where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

  65. Oilman99 says:

    godot10: Klefbom and Nugent-Hopkins might get you Parayko.

    godot10: Klefbom and Nugent-Hopkins might get you Parayko.

    Is your name Chiarellie? A deal like that is idiotic.

  66. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    When thinking about a Karlsson acquisition, I think we all need to keep in mind that there is absolutely no guarantee that he signs an extension with the Oilers.

    Pierre LeBrun advised that expressly (not related to the Oilers but in general) on the Lowetide yesterday.

    Also, lets not forget that the Oilers were on Karlsson’s no trade list a while back (as far as I know) so, even if he accepts a trade to Edmonton now to get away from Ottawa, its very likely he will test free agency.

    He has also expressed the desire to get what he’s worth in free agency so, if he does re-sign, I don’t imagine it will be under $10M per year.

    I’d love the player on this team but the risk is too big for me on the anticipated acquisition cost.

    Karlsson would create such cap hell,they would have play with a fifteen player roster.

  67. Jethro Tull says:

    https://youtu.be/ur5fGSBsfq8

    For the world cup fans..

  68. Jaxon says:

    Marc: Nope.

    A second round pick has got around a 25% chance of playing 200 NHL games and around a 10% chance of being an impact NHL player.

    By making the AHL as a 20 year old, Jones’ odds are at least as good as that, and we’ll find out in the next couple of years, not the 4-5 years if will take someone drafted this year to develop.

    Jones may have those odds but he has to claw past Nurse, Klefbom, Sekera, Russell, Lowe, and now possibly Samurokov and Laggesson. I think it would be worth it to gamble early on an underrated prospect. Would you do it for Mascherin as he is probably closer than Jones to making the NHL?

  69. npanciroli says:

    Draft week is always awesome. Loving it so far. Huge rumour fan too so this Parayko stuff is great.

  70. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10:
    Re: Parayko.Montreal had Serge Savard, Larry Robinson, and Guy Lapointe…they didn’t think that was a problem.Why would St. Louis think Pieterangelo and Parayko, with their ideal age separation, a problem?

    They don’t. St Louis actually has very little RD depth and have no interest in trading Parayko. Of course, if someone went crazy and offered Draisaitl + I’m sure they’d consider it. Scary thought.

  71. ArmchairGM says:

    slopitch: What about Klefbom+10 for Parayko+29.

    And then draft K’Andre Miller. Works for me!

  72. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Out of the “farther away” prospects, I’m exited about Maskimov – that guy is a shooter and a goal scorer.

    If you look at his goals from this past year, many of them are from the “Ovechkin spot”.

    He has a fantastic shot – hard, accurate, great release and he loves to shoot.

    I don’t think we’ve had a shooter like that since Jason Arnott.

    Here is hoping he develops his game to make it to the NHL b/c, if he does, he will score some goals.

    I agree. Hopefully he gets some time with McDavid or Draisaitl in the pre-season – I’d really like to see that.

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    Marc: Ottawa seems to be targeting guys who have cap hits higher than their actually salary – which suggests that they have a cash flow problem and foresee a cap floor problem.

    That might make Klef slightly less and Sekera slightly more attractive for the purposes of a deal for Karlsson.

    Sekera, Lucic and $40M cash for Karlsson?

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    Nitpicking but I think I’d call Bear a puck mover and Benson a scoring forward.

    Also nitpicking, SHL is absolutely “pro” hockey.

  75. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: Jay or John?

    Jon.

  76. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: And then draft K’Andre Miller. Works for me!

    That would be great except I don’t think Miller lasts that long. His average position in mocks is #24, went #17 in Pronman’s mock.

  77. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Who does Pronman pick for Edmonton in his mock?

  78. Brantford Boy says:

    Rondo:
    Craig Buttons final Mock Draft

    https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-mock-draft-the-intrigue-starts-with-the-habs-1.1116064

    Suggested this weeks ago, I still think it could in fact be Bouchard who falls… crazy times… in this case I would do as others are suggesting, pulling a Costanza and running to the podium to yell out his name… look out women and children!

  79. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    Who does Pronman pick for Edmonton in his mock?

    Ty Smith and he says it is based on rumours that Edmonton really likes him.

  80. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Thanks

  81. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Our biggest player challenges last year were wingers to score with skill, and top-4 D

    – I think the solution for top-6 wingers is 3 of Lucic/Pool/new guy/Rattie/Kailer, and of course RNH. I think the upside on whoever you get if you dump Lucic isn’t as great as Lucic with a 12% sh% than his 6% this year

    – And on D: I think the upside of Klef/Sek/Larsson having better years is much better upside that whoever you are going to trade those players for

    – And of course, a goalie that isn’t brutal makes current better, more than trading for other D IMO

    – Winning the Cup is the goal, I think in the NHL you make rosters, you get a goalie who plays elite, your team stays healthyish, and Cup appearances will happen

    – I think our top 5-6 players stack up against all of the top 5-6 players of the last 12 cup winners

    – The rest you fill in the blanks, hope to get goalering and Bob is your uncle

    – Las Vegas was the awesome “4-line team” untill their goalie stopped being Hasek. then they lost to Washington, who had far more top-end talent, that exposed the lack of talent that Vegas has

  82. npanciroli says:

    Jaxon: Ty Smith and he says it is based on rumours that Edmonton really likes him.

    I frequent HF and I think they are going to lose it if we take Smith over Boqvist.

  83. Matticus says:

    I wonder what it would take to move up and grab wahlstrom?

  84. Wolfpack says:

    Can’t imagine why St. Louis would want to trade Parayko. If they need the cap room there are a lot better choices to make in terms of who to move out. Also, I am not a big fan of whenever the Oilers look like they are trying to “fix” a previous mistake. They should have drafted Parayko, kid from their own backyard that was passed over in 2011 and went late in the 3rd round in 2012. Nothing good can come from letting other teams draft and develop the studs and then paying a massive price to obtain them. Just feels like they are digging the hole deeper and deeper.

  85. JustWatt says:

    npanciroli: I frequent HF and I think they are going to lose it if we take Smith over Boqvist.

    That may be true but I don’t follow on all the hate/fear for Smith. The numbers just love the guy and he had a historically good season offensively for a D-man in the W. He’s right-handed. I’m missing all of the concerns about injury and lack of interest in playing D that surround Merkley and Boquist. What is it I’m missing?

    Edit: see that he’s a lefty, so that’s less than ideal. Maybe let the kid percolate and develop behind Klef and Nurse? Still don’t get the hate.

  86. jtblack says:

    Oilman99: Stauffer is connected,where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

    LT is connected. Where there is smoke ; there is a bottle of Whisky.

  87. --hudson-- says:

    Oilman99:
    Is your name Chiarellie? A deal like that is idiotic.

    I believe that’s sarcasm.

    Is there really much separation between Klefbom and Parayko besides handedness?
    – Similar age, similar TOI
    – Parayko has 3 seasons of consistent play, looks like he’s a lock for 35 points a year (5 goals, 30 assists)
    – Klefbom has had his injury problems, so inconsistent results, but his good year was slightly better than Parayko at 38 points (12 goals, 26 assists)
    – Both shoot the puck about 200 times a season, both shot under 3% last year
    – Both are positive in possession

    I remember Parayko started his career on a heater, scoring 3 or 4 goals his first couple of weeks into his career. Is that who he really is or was that just luck?

  88. T0ML says:

    So uh, this is happening

    Elliotte Friedman

    Verified account

    @FriedgeHNIC
    2m2 minutes ago
    More
    There is word today that Artemi Panarin has told CLB that he is not ready to consider an extension “at this time.” (UFA July 2019.) As a result, the Blue Jackets are testing the market for him.

    19 replies 103 retweets 120 likes
    Reply 19 Retweet 103 Like 120 Direct message

    Is this word going crazy?

  89. Jaxon says:

    npanciroli: HF

    I think we might be dodging a bullet if we miss out on Boqvist.

    This is a pretty scathing critique of the player:
    https://theathletic.com/393183/2018/06/18/the-give-and-take-and-boom-bust-potential-of-defence-prospect-adam-boqvist/

    Sorry, it’s behind a paywall. But Boqvist does not appeal to me. Defensive lapses. Shitty attitude. Cheats a lot for offense at the expense of his team. Concussion issues.

    The one clip shows him floating around the hash marks while his team tries to gain control in their own zone, then he literally blows the zone for a breakaway like he’s a winger all alone. His team loses the puck and he floats back and casually covers the point. He’s a defenceman! In another article (about Merkley), Pronman also mentioned that he heard scouts mention Boqvist’s attitude problem that we just don’t hear about because he’s not playing in Ontario, but on another continent. I’d be very afraid of that pick. I’m not a huge Ty Smith fan either, but wouldn’t be as worried about him, only that he’s adding to the leftorium and the only way to get top RHD is to draft them unless you want to overpay. Bouchard, Dobson is the answer. If not them, then I’d draft a forward at #10 and draft a RHD at #40.

  90. LadiesloveSmid says:

    T0ML,

    I don’t think the league could handle Panarin playing with McDavid or Draisaitl. If edm was poised to go all in next year (seeing as he may test UFA) then I’d go all in

  91. Brantford Boy says:

    Jaxon,

    This… +1

  92. Melvis says:

    bendelson,

    Heads up.

    I’ve got a big ass pork shoulder in the Q. Warm potato salad, picklied beets, some slaw and crudite on the side. Along with some footie on the screen ( the second most beautiful game on the planet – whoops, I take that back. The 3rd – after baseball).

    Bring a couple of dancing women, some bourbon, the Woodguy, some stories and your senses of humour. I’ve got the tunes and the beer covered.

    Life is good, as Bourdain used to say. First real week of summer, and the effin days are goona get shorter by the weekend.

    Toonie bets on the draft pick and Looch out. Plus lawn darts and the draft lists.

    Here in NMC land, we make our own fun.

  93. Cahoon says:

    That Button mock has Bouchard falling to us. It could happen, things are getting wild!

  94. Wilde says:

    Kassian for McCann, does Dale say no?

  95. T0ML says:

    Agree ,that would be insane for a one year. Doubt we could afford him after a year with McDavid or Drai for sure.

    LadiesloveSmid:
    T0ML,

    I don’t think the league could handle Panarin playing with McDavid or Draisaitl. If edm was poised to go all in next year (seeing as he may test UFA) then I’d go all in

  96. stephen sheps says:

    Melvis:
    bendelson,

    Heads up.

    I’ve got a big ass pork shoulder in the Q.Warm potato salad, picklied beets, some slaw and crudite on the side.Along with some footie on the screen ( the second most beautiful game on the planet – whoops, I take that back. The 3rd – after baseball).

    Bring a couple of dancing women, some bourbon, the Woodguy, some stories and your senses of humour. I’ve got the tunes and the beer covered.

    Life is good, as Bourdain used to say. First real week of summer, and the effin days are goona get shorter by the weekend.

    Toonie bets on the draft pick and Looch out. Plus lawn darts and the draft lists.

    Here in NMC land, we make our own fun.

    Melvis, remind me where you’re based, because if this bbq is happening in the GTA, I’m coming over!

    Also sorry for the 10 days too late to the convo but all of the great comments re: Bourdain that day really helped get me through. I was away at a conference and disconnected from friends and community at the time. Reading that thread made a huge difference. I wasn’t quite ready to comment on it until now, but I was truly very grateful to so many of you.

  97. Professor Q says:

    T0ML:
    So uh, this is happening

    Elliotte Friedman

    Verified account

    @FriedgeHNIC2m2 minutes ago
    More
    There is word today that Artemi Panarin has told CLB that he is not ready to consider an extension “at this time.” (UFA July 2019.) As a result, the Blue Jackets are testing the market for him.

    19 replies 103 retweets 120 likes
    Reply 19 Retweet 103 Like 120 Direct message

    Is this word going crazy?

    What is it with Panarin and not gelling with teams?

  98. Professor Q says:

    ArmchairGM: Jon.

    The NFL coach is Jon (whose son is a powerlifter champion), the former hockey player is John (presumably his son is John Jr.). I did luck out with the misspelling. 😉

  99. --hudson-- says:

    Question for the group: How much of a team’s list gets altered due to the McKenzie list?


    All teams would use the Bob McKenzie list, not necessarily as a draft list though. With the list being a consensus or average of 10 external scouts, that’s good information to inform your list of the order you expect things to go.

    If the Oilers hypothetically had Kotkaniemi as number 10 on their list, knowing externally it looks like he’s going at number 3 should raise the value they place on the #10 pick (they’ll get a higher ranked player in their spot). The Oilers should be thrilled if this were the case.

    On the other hand if they have Ty Smith at 10 and everyone else has him at 14, you look to trade back if you can.

    What I would look at is building an external consensus with all of the publicly available lists. Use central scouting, ISS, Woodlief, Pronman, BM etc. like what Jaxon is doing. If BM’s list is 10 scouts, those are 10 votes for Dahlin at 1. If central scouting is 20 scouts, that ranking gets 20 votes, and so on. You would want to validate this model with previous drafts to tune the votes in case the covariance between some of the lists is too high or low.

    Then you use this super-consensus list to make trades and extract as much value as you can out of each pick.

  100. Professor Q says:

    –hudson–: I believe that’s sarcasm.

    Is there really much separation between Klefbom and Parayko besides handedness?
    – Similar age, similar TOI
    – Parayko has 3 seasons of consistent play, looks like he’s a lock for 35 points a year (5 goals, 30 assists)
    – Klefbom has had his injury problems, so inconsistent results, but his good year was slightly better than Parayko at 38 points (12 goals, 26 assists)
    – Both shoot the puck about 200 times a season, both shot under 3% last year
    – Both are positive in possession

    I remember Parayko started his career on a heater, scoring 3 or 4 goals his first couple of weeks into his career.Is that who he really is or was that just luck?

    Are you forgetting the Nugent-Hopkins part of the deal?

  101. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: LT is connected. Where there is smoke ; there is a bottle of Whisky.

    Is that peat smoke?

  102. --hudson-- says:

    Jaxon: I think we might be dodging a bullet if we miss out on Boqvist.

    This is a pretty scathing critique of the player:
    https://theathletic.com/393183/2018/06/18/the-give-and-take-and-boom-bust-potential-of-defence-prospect-adam-boqvist/

    Sorry, it’s behind a paywall. But Boqvist does not appeal to me. Defensive lapses. Shitty attitude. Cheats a lot for offense at the expense of his team. Concussion issues.

    The only caution I would add is that some portions of what you see in a player get better wtih age while some others cannot be fixed. Is Boqvist out of position because of poor physical ability or because of poor decision making?

    We know decision making can be improved with age, experience, and coaching (like we’re seeing with Nurse right now). If he’s fatigued he might not be able to adapt to the pace of the NHL in a few years, so you’d hope he’s able to put on some strength in the near future.

    The concussion issues are definitely worrisome.

  103. Andy Dufresne says:

    –hudson–: I believe that’s sarcasm.

    Is there really much separation between Klefbom and Parayko besides handedness?
    – Similar age, similar TOI
    – Parayko has 3 seasons of consistent play, looks like he’s a lock for 35 points a year (5 goals, 30 assists)
    – Klefbom has had his injury problems, so inconsistent results, but his good year was slightly better than Parayko at 38 points (12 goals, 26 assists)
    – Both shoot the puck about 200 times a season, both shot under 3% last year
    – Both are positive in possession

    I remember Parayko started his career on a heater, scoring 3 or 4 goals his first couple of weeks into his career.Is that who he really is or was that just luck?

    I think the leverage that St Louis has is that they know Parayko is two things 1) A Chiarelli type: Big, Hard-nosed, Healthy, Two-Way defensman. 2) a RHD

    And they know Chiarelli is willing to pay a premium to get what he wants.

    I dont think the Oilers love Dreamy.

    Klefbom and 10th for Parayko.

    Best case scenario for Oilers fans: Kelfbom +10th for Parayko + 29th (highly unlikely)

    #ChiaTweaks

  104. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – I think our top 5-6 players stack up against all of the top 5-6 players of the last 12 cup winners

    I did an exercise on this awhile back and came to the complete opposite conclusion.

    The Oilers have a better top player, but they start getting beaten out by most teams by the third name, and then it gets extremely ugly as most elite teams have ~9 players better than our 6th best.

    We obviously disagree here, so I’d like you to show your work on this sentiment.

    This year the Oilers have one player better than everyone on the Caps, but the Caps then have three forwards better than our 2nd best forward and it only gets steeper of an advantage as you go down the lineup.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: The NFL coach is Jon (whose son is a powerlifter champion), the former hockey player is John (presumably his son is John Jr.). I did luck out with the misspelling.

    Jon. Short for Jonathan.

  106. Shane says:

    stephen sheps: Melvis, remind me where you’re based, because if this bbq is happening in the GTA, I’m coming over!

    Also sorry for the 10 days too late to the convo but all of the great comments re: Bourdain that day really helped get me through. I was away at a conference and disconnected from friends and community at the time. Reading that thread made a huge difference. I wasn’t quite ready to comment on it until now, but I was truly very grateful to so many of you.

    If I could chime in as well. I also wasn’t able to comment that day because my wife and I were travelling back from Europe with my parents, doing what Mr. Bourdain influenced us to do. Travel, eat, drink and enjoy the company of those you care about.

    Thanks for everything that was said that day. I copy/pasted Andy Dufresnes ’30 pearls of wisdom’. Thinking about framing it.

  107. --hudson-- says:

    Professor Q: Are you forgetting the Nugent-Hopkins part of the deal?

    Yeah I hope it was sarcasm.

  108. Melvis says:

    stephen sheps,

    I commute between Saskatoon and Prince Albert. I’ve got a yard, a summer kitchen and some farmland in between. Right now, I’m in my mom’s basement in PA. Or rather, I own the house and she’s the upstairs dweller;-) I’m the principal caretaker and this stuff seems to come with the territory.

    I’ll probably be in TO in Sept….near as I can tell. I’ll look up you and the Kinger for a bit of walkabout, beers at the Cameron , maybe dinner at Select Bistro – .great fois gras. ( for old times sake). Just suggestions. Toss in a ball game as well.

  109. Professor Q says:

    ArmchairGM: Jon. Short for Jonathan.

    I think you’re either playing the troll or we are on very different pages.

  110. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde: I did an exercise on this awhile back and came to the complete opposite conclusion.

    The Oilers have a better top player, but they start getting beaten out by most teams by the third name, and then it gets extremely ugly as most elite teams have ~9 players better than our 6th best.

    We obviously disagree here, so I’d like you to show your work on this sentiment.

    This year the Oilers have one player better than everyone on the Caps, but the Caps then have three forwards better than our 2nd best forward and it only gets steeper of an advantage as you go down the lineup.

    – You don’t CmD/Drai/RNH/Larsson/Klef is comparable (when the team plays well?). that’s the 5 I was thinking of.

    – the year we win our first cup, it will be another winger who goes super-nova, and a hot goalie

  111. Wilde says:

    Holy shit, what would you /not/ trade for Panarin?

    I’d do 10th + Nuge + 2019 1st + more.

  112. Andy Dufresne says:

    A few teams looking to get bigger/tougher with some skill. Tom Wilson type. Market value for Kassian has probably gone up a little.

    Chia got him for nothing (Ben Scrivens), and he has been an asset in the playoffs but is a locked in 4th liner at $1.95m AVV in the regular season.

    Would probably be several teams that beleive they could unlock his potential and make him a middle six winger. Its one trade I think we could win.

  113. Professor Q says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    But why can’t Edmonton be the team that unlocks his potential?

    I always see trades here trying to trade away players and hope they do well on other teams instead of retooling Edmonton and having success here, or having them continue to do well what they do well, etc.

    Instead of once again gambling on another deal.

    Sure, some might be needed, but too many gambles in the spot where Edmonton is now from the gambles already taken…both positive and negative…could ruin the soup.

  114. texmex says:

    Edmonton Oilers

    Verified account

    @EdmontonOilers
    45s46 seconds ago
    More
    The #Oilers have agreed to terms with defenceman Matt Benning on a two-year contract extension.

  115. LMHF#1 says:

    So wait…after all this talk about farms being sold to obtain Mike Hoffman…he was had for 3 effing draft picks??? And worse ones than obtained an AHL defender for the Oilers?

    I really hope this resets people’s absurd notions of what is required to make trades….but am also going to go bash my head against a wall for a while in the hope it stops hurting…

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benning has re-signed for 2 years.

    My guess was 2 X $1.75M – here is hoping its not more.

  117. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m going to guess 2 x $2.25M

  118. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – You don’t CmD/Drai/RNH/Larsson/Klef is comparable (when the team plays well?).that’s the 5 I was thinking of.

    – the year we win our first cup, it will be another winger who goes super-nova, and a hot goalie

    I’d break down the players like this:

    Forwards:

    EDM McDavid

    WSH Kuznetsov
    WSH Ovechkin
    WSH Backstrom

    EDM Draisatl

    WSH Oshie
    EDM Nugent-Hopkins
    WSH Burakovsky

    Defensemen:

    WSH Niskanen

    WSH Carlson
    EDM Klefbom
    WSH Orlov
    WSH Djoos
    EDM Larsson

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: I think you’re either playing the troll or we are on very different pages.

    Not sure how I’m trolling? Please explain.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=196116
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=2051

  120. --hudson-- says:

    Andy Dufresne: I think the leverage that St Louis has is that they know Parayko is two things 1) A Chiarelli type: Big, Hard-nosed, Healthy, Two-Way defensman.2)a RHD

    And they know Chiarelli is willing to pay a premium to get what he wants.

    I dont think the Oilers love Dreamy.

    Klefbom and 10th for Parayko.

    Best case scenario for Oilers fans:Kelfbom +10th for Parayko + 29th (highly unlikely)

    #ChiaTweaks

    Yep I agree with all your points here. The Oilers may think they can get close to as good of a player at 29 as at 10 (downgrade from Ty Smith to Addison while getting their RHD).

    Is LHD an area of need for St. Louis? They have Bouwmeester, Gunnarson, Dunn and Edmundson. Both Bouwmeester and Gunnarson are getting up there in age. It would be a shame for the Oilers to bleed talent on this type of trade and help a rival in their retool, especially seeing as St. Louis already has so many young prospects on the way.

  121. Andy Dufresne says:

    Shane: If I could chime in as well. I also wasn’t able to comment that day because my wife and I were travelling back from Europe with my parents, doing what Mr. Bourdain influenced us to do. Travel, eat, drink and enjoy the company of those you care about.

    Thanks for everything that was said that day. I copy/pasted Andy Dufresnes ’30 pearls of wisdom’. Thinking about framing it.

    Thanks Shane and Stephen. Yeah Im definitley putting it up on the wall in the travel section of my book nook and on the wall of my “man cave/garage” Still a little unsettling to watch all the CNN tributes and current season episodes.

  122. stephen sheps says:

    Melvis,

    I’m so in for this! And I’ll reach out to Blackdog Pat and have him join us as well. He’s usually up for beers with fellow Oilers fans.

    And when I’m back in Saskatoon next March, I’ll be sure to give you ample notice.

    ArmchairGM: Is that peat smoke?

    Somehow LT strikes me as more of a Speyside Sherry-bomb scotch drinker than an Islay or Campbelltown peat monster, but I say this based exclusively on his writing and the gentle, welcoming tone of this place. Then again, Islay was about the most warm and welcoming place I’ve ever visited, so what the hell do I know?!

    Is it too early in the day for a dram?

  123. godot10 says:

    Wilde:
    Holy shit, what would you /not/ trade for Panarin?

    I’d do 10th + Nuge + 2019 1st + more.

    That is an awful lot for on e year of Panarin.

  124. stephen sheps says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I haven’t had it in me to watch the current season yet. I still need more time. This one hit me as hard as when George Harrison passed.

    But yeah, that post was brilliant. You need to frame it.

  125. ArmchairGM says:

    texmex:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m going to guess 2 x $2.25M

    It HAS to be more than expected, right? #BecauseChiarelli

  126. texmex says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Ryan Rishaug

    Verified account

    @TSNRyanRishaug
    12s12 seconds ago
    More
    1.8 and 2.0 million for Benning deal.

  127. Professor Q says:

    ArmchairGM: Not sure how I’m trolling? Please explain.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=196116
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=2051

    Yes, you’re just trolling. I see now.

    You either realize (or realise) that John is an extremely common shortened form of Jonathan and are just trolling with dry humour pedantry, or you have been extremely sheltered and somehow only know the less common shortened form of Johnathan, Jon.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gruden

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    $1.8M and $2.0M for Benning, so, $1.9M.

    A little higher than I wanted but only by $150K.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Panarin only has one year left and then is going to need Drai money (more if he goes and scores 40 playing with 97 or 29).

  130. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: But why can’t Edmonton be the team that unlocks his potential?

    Agreed. I took a look at the WOWY’s a few weeks ago in order to find the best matches for McDavid and Draisaitl among current wingers, and although some of the sample sizes were small, the results were undeniable:

    Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Khaira – Draisaitl – Kassian

    I think Kassian could be a right-shot version of Maroon if given the opportunity… LT did a piece a while ago “looking for the next Maroon” – I think we have two very interesting candidates on the roster already, and their WOWY’s look great with Draisaitl.

  131. npanciroli says:

    That’s a solid contract for Chiarelli, I think he did well here.

  132. leadfarmer says:

    npanciroli,

    Yeah thats good. Thought it was going to be over 2

  133. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: Yes, you’re just trolling. I see now.

    You either realize (or realise) that John is an extremely common shortened form of Jonathan and are just trolling with dry humour pedantry, or you have been extremely sheltered and somehow only know the less common shortened form of Johnathan, Jon.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gruden

    No trolling. He differentiates from his father John by going with Jon or Jonny – no Jr moniker usually. John is the father, Jon / Jonny / Jonathan is the son.

    Since this is a hockey blog, I didn’t think it necessary to differentiate between the USHL center and an NFL coach. My bad.

  134. Professor Q says:

    ArmchairGM: No trolling. He differentiates from his father John by going with Jon or Jonny – no Jr moniker usually. John is the father, Jon / Jonny / Jonathan is the son.

    Since this is a hockey blog, I didn’t think it necessary to differentiate between the USHL center and an NFL coach. My bad.

    No, it’s okay, there was just misunderstanding it appears and we should just be fine now (so I apologize as well). I made a joke using the NFL coaches due to a comment just randomly saying “Gruden!!!” without context. I also didn’t know about the player, to be honest.

    Someone replied to me saying John Jr. and then I looked it up to actually see what I was missing (I made the joke too quickly without thinking). I thought there might have been a connection with the Newfoundland Growlers and Hamilton Bulldogs for some reason.

  135. VOR says:

    N64: VOR,

    I recall you noticing some sub draft anamolies and wondering if the McKenzie list was disrupting optimal drafting. Were you able to dig into that?

    I will get to Bob’s list and its impact on draft boards.

    But you need some background. Many GMs hate draft ranking lists. They believe their scouts default to it rather than using as one famous GM put it, “their own pea size brains.” And they think scouts default because nobody can criticize them for following collective wisdom. Or so Serge Savard believes. He was the first GM to openly talk about the problem.

    Serge Savard was livid in 1988 the first time he ranted about this and time just made him more vitriolic. In 1984 one of the Canadiens scouts argued they should draft a kid Central Scouting had ranked in the nether region of the draft. But they used consensus to create a draft board and consensus followed in lock step with Central Scouting.

    The scout wanted to draft the kid in every round but his colleagues shot him down each time. LA drafted the kid after everybody had gone home. His name was Luc Robataille and you can see why Serge was livid and grew more and more so over time. Though Montreal did great in the draft (Patrick Roy etc) it could have been so much better.

    Though my favourite story about scouts being unduly influenced by ranking lists comes from 1982.

    A young center in a second tier league close to the center of the universe got completely screwed by CS. He had a decent year and was seen by all 21 teams. 9 teams supposedly had him on their boards, the bottom of those boards but at least in the draft. Central Scouting NRed him and nobody drafted him as a consequence.

    It is one thing not to take Luc Robataille in the first round when he is ranked in the late rounds. But for team after team to remove Adam Oates from the bottom of their boards because he fell right out of the rankings Is quite another.

    Today we know 19 of 30 teams outperform central scouting on a pretty consistent basis suggesting that CS have lost their cachet among scouts. Sadly Bob’s list, not his fault, has become the new orthodoxy. I wouldn’t say it his influence is absolute, especially outside the top 30. But Bob’s list definitely changes the behaviour of teams in the first round.

    That said the first round of the draft isn’t a completely rational ranking of talent in the first place. Recency bias, tournaments of small sample size, gossip, innuendo, combine performance and the insidious impact of gamesmanship guarantee that. It is still troubling that the first 15 to 20 picks each year are more and more closely following Bob’s rankings. Even the last half of the first round looks like Bob’s list.

    Bob doesn’t claim his list ranks talent. Just scouting group think. The evidence says he definitely doesn’t outperform the competition when it comes to who should have been picked but he isn’t trying to pick the winners. He is just capturing scouting consensus at a single moment in time.

    Perhaps scouts don’t understand his methodology but I doubt that. I think they are moving to follow his list because it provides cover if they screw up. And thus the tail wags the dog.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holy crap, 136 comments to get through.

    My clients are starting to interfere with my Oilers social media requirements.

  137. Doug McLachlan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    $1.8M and $2.0M for Benning, so, $1.9M.

    A little higher than I wanted but only by $150K.

    2x $1.9M is higher than your prediction but it is actually $250K lower than Matt Carle’s model which predicted 2x$2.147M.

    So Chiarellis was $63K under than Carle on Rattie, $200K over on Caggulia and $250K under on Benning.

    I know that the narrative is Chia overpays on everything but he seems in the ball park here.

    Next, BIG, test is the Nurse contract.

    BTW, all of Carle’s predictions are based on the $80M cap. If the NHLPA does not use any of the escalator these numbers all look worse for Chia but conversely if the NHLPA uses the full 5% and the cap hits $82M then all of these numbers start to look like more like value contracts.

    We wait.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    Re: Parayko.Montreal had Serge Savard, Larry Robinson, and Guy Lapointe…they didn’t think that was a problem.Why would St. Louis think Pieterangelo and Parayko, with their ideal age separation, a problem?

    Its a nonsensical conversation. Its not a rumor or speculation, it was just Stauf spit-balling and, apparently, coming to a revelation that Parayko would be a great fit – something we already knew.

    There is enough nonsense out there, I’m not sure why Bob felt the need to add to it.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Bob did correctly “predict” the Hall for Larsson Trade and the Eberle for Strome trade. He is somewhat connected.

    My guess, he is just throwing this out there to get people to listen to his show today. Hands up……… how many people will tune in today to hear his explanation for the tweet?

    Oh, absolutely he’s connected but he wasn’t predicting anything or proving us with speculation based on anything – this was just him thinking Parayko would be great.

    Of course, given its Stauf, who is connected, and social media being what it is, many will run with it as a legit possibility when it was just a though from Bob.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: Isn’t that what tweets are for?

    Not when you work for the organization and many will take the tweet out of context.

  141. ArmchairGM says:

    So… Panarin is available. If Chiarelli can engineer a deal around Klefbom, does the Hall-Larsson fiasco fade a bit? Asking for a friend.

  142. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    $1.8M and $2.0M for Benning, so, $1.9M.

    A little higher than I wanted but only by $150K.

    Not bad for a guy who is RHD, a year younger than Klefbom, and had the same boxcars as Klefbom last year, plays a more physical style than Klefbom. All for less than half of what Dreamy makes…and Dreamy is a dream contract.

    Plus we needed to make sure we had Benning signed before we move Klefbom for Parayko. 🙂

  143. Oilin4 says:

    Doug McLachlan: 2x $1.9M is higher than your prediction but it is actually $250K lower than Matt Carle’s model which predicted 2x$2.147M.

    So Chiarellis was $63K under than Carle on Rattie, $200K over on Caggulia and $250K under on Benning.

    I know that the narrative is Chia overpays on everything but he seems in the ball park here.

    Next, BIG, test is the Nurse contract.

    BTW, all of Carle’s predictions are based on the $80M cap.If the NHLPA does not use any of the escalator these numbers all look worse for Chia but conversely if the NHLPA uses the full 5% and the cap hits $82M then all of these numbers start to look like more like value contracts.

    We wait.

    I generally dislike Chia, and consider this an overpay, but this is a solid post that changed my mind on all three signings. I still have an issue with the term given to Caggiula though. Could have easily got him on 1.5 x 1.

  144. --hudson-- says:

    VOR,

    I am constantly wowed by your thoughts, memory, and ability to write!

  145. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR,

    – There are no doubt huge “abritrage” opportunities as a result of this group think, and public shared available information, given the behaviour of humans

    – I’m not sure how to quantify the pricing discrepency that the system creates, and its problematic, because the “tools” to evaluate 18 year olds and project them into the future is difficult

    – But I’d back up the truck figuring out ways to game this silly system where one guy gets on the blower and asks everyone what they think, and then those guys look at what Bob puts out and everyone is CYA big-time.

    – There’s a massive opportunity for such a backwards closed-end system, that is run by fairly unsophisticated deciscion makers IMO

    – And by unsophisticated, I don’t mean dumb: I just mean what they might now or think they know about hockeyering, the don’t know about stats, probablilites, confidence intervals, marginal utility, etc

  146. Pink Socks says:

    errorjordan:
    Last year Owen Tippett was the best sniper in the draft and consensus top 5 pick who went 10th overall to FLA.Hoping history repeats itself with Whalstrom to the Oil.

    I’m not sure Tippett was a consensus top 5 though…He was all over the place:

    Bob – #10
    Pronman – #6
    Draft Analyst – #5
    Hockey Prospect – #22
    Button – #23
    Dobber – #14
    ISS – #5
    RLR – #13

  147. Andy Dufresne says:

    Just curious if it would be at all practicle to run a real time draft here on this site.

    Where each of us picks in real time the player we want as the Oilers are on the board.

    Doesnt seem complicated. At the end of 7 rounds we each summarize our picks in a list.

    Then we can save them individually for future reference.

    Dont think it requires any coordination. No moderator, no secretary/recorder. No nothing really. Just time and a willingness to participate.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex:
    Anyone know when the league is going to announce the salary cap for next season? I thought I read June 18th, but obviously not.

    If I’m not mistaken, its not made official until literally the end of June, a couple days before July 1 – or at least I remember that being the case last year.

  149. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Panarin only has one year left and then is going to need Drai money (more if he goes and scores 40 playing with 97 or 29).

    PC trading for 1 year of Panarin is a bad decision period. Even if he would sign a UFA contract here after 1 season, he is easily in Drai territory. Not a wise move.

  150. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM:
    So… Panarin is available. If Chiarelli can engineer a deal around Klefbom, does the Hall-Larsson fiasco fade a bit? Asking for a friend.

    Yes.

    I assume Columbus wants a forward in return, but yes Panarin is on the level of Hall and having him would put this team back on track to being the Penguins.

    I thought it would be obvious in my proposal above that the requisite condition for the trade is that Panarin is signed to an extension. I’d go to 8-9M per.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Do you think Doughty would be a better bet?

    I don’t think we are (or should be) in the market for any upper-elite d-man that is approaching UFA status and will need over $10M on a new contract – plus the assets out to acquire the player further depleting organizational depth at certain NHL and prospect positions.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Stauffer is connected,where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

    Yes, this is true, however you just proved my point.

    Stauffer was not “providing smoke” – he wasn’t speculating that the Oilers are going for Parayko or providing knowledge of rumors of the same. It was just a random thought that came to his brain that he’d be a good target. Now, some Oiler fans are taking it as an actual thing that’s possible.

    In this case, I don’t believe Stauffer is providing any more “insider information” than you or me spitballing about Parayko being a great fit.

  153. Wolfpack says:

    Really like Panarin obviously, in the playoffs he was the most dangerous player on the ice in that opening round series for Columbus. Just electric. But, like Karlsson he has one year to UFA and both guys seem to have indicated that they are looking to get paid. Only option for the Oilers to get (and more importantly extend) either of those guys involves moving Leon’s contract, I just don’t see any way around it. So I just don’t see it happening. Also, Edmonton probably on Karlsson’s NT list.

    I still think a lot of players might want to play with McDavid but unfortunately missing the playoffs last year as well as Lucic’s situation might have taken a bit of the shine off that idea.

  154. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    $1.8M and $2.0M for Benning, so, $1.9M.

    A little higher than I wanted but only by $150K.

    Good deal for both sides. My money is on Benning to outperform this contract.

    My vote to fill the Larsson Benning sandwich is Matt Dumba. Minny needs to sign Dumba and Zucker, which Matt Cane’s free agent predictions suggests will take a combined $10.5 million ( or more than 12 if they both sign 3 year or longer deals). They only have $7.4 in space based on $75.0 Cap. Maybe they’d like Klef to play with Brodin, plus Bear to develop into their next Dumba in a few years.

    My contract numbers are a bit off because i was using an earlier version of Cane’s projections.
    Interesting that his final projection for Strome is 2 years, AAV of $2.57

  155. OriginalPouzar says:

    JustWatt: That may be true but I don’t follow on all the hate/fear for Smith. The numbers just love the guy and he had a historically good season offensively for a D-man in the W. He’s right-handed. I’m missing all of the concerns about injury and lack of interest in playing D that surround Merkley and Boquist. What is it I’m missing?

    Edit: see that he’s a lefty, so that’s less than ideal. Maybe let the kid percolate and develop behind Klef and Nurse? Still don’t get the hate.

    Smith isn’t right handed. He’s a left shot but he’s been playing the right side for Spokane.

    I heard Bob Green talk about him earlier today and he said he’s more effective on the right side.

    I’m a bit worried they draft him as a right shot D without knowing if he will be as effective on this off-side at the NHL level.

    The NHL game is so much faster, players need to play and think faster, having your back hand to center ice makes it harder.

    Maybe he is one of the rare d-men that don’t lose effectiveness moving the puck on their off side. I feel its a risk though.

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Holy shit, what would you /not/ trade for Panarin?

    I’d do 10th + Nuge + 2019 1st + more.

    For one year?

    An extension will be at least Drai money, perhaps Eichel money, perhaps more if he scores 40 with Drai or Connor.

  157. bendelson says:

    Melvis:
    bendelson,

    Heads up.

    I’ve got a big ass pork shoulder in the Q.Warm potato salad, picklied beets, some slaw and crudite on the side.Along with some footie on the screen ( the second most beautiful game on the planet – whoops, I take that back. The 3rd – after baseball).

    Bring a couple of dancing women, some bourbon, the Woodguy, some stories and your senses of humour. I’ve got the tunes and the beer covered.

    Life is good, as Bourdain used to say. First real week of summer, and the effin days are goona get shorter by the weekend.

    Toonie bets on the draft pick and Looch out. Plus lawn darts and the draft lists.

    Here in NMC land, we make our own fun.

    Hot damn! That sounds like a good time Melvis… best put that warm potato salad in the fridge… I am a good 8 hours away!

    Full disclosure: I stay away from the boubon at all times. This summer, the drink of choice is gin and soda at the Bendelson house. Delicious!

    I completely agree on baseball. Nothing better than a beer and a hot dog out in the bleachers… I’ve never been to the Skydome. Exhibition Stadium on the other hand, I knew as a young lad. I just made plans to be at AT&T Park in September for series against the dreaded Dodgers… good times.

    Anyone else play “throw the lawndart straight up in the air as hard as you can and scatter” as a youngster? Again, good times… unless you’re ‘tough luck Jimmy’ that is…

  158. Wolfpack says:

    bendelson: Hot damn!That sounds like a good time Melvis… best put that warm potato salad in the fridge… I am a good 8 hours away!

    Full disclosure:I stay away from the boubon at all times.This summer, the drink of choice is gin and soda at the Bendelson house.Delicious!

    I completely agree on baseball.Nothing better than a beer and a hot dog out in the bleachers… I’ve never been to the Skydome.Exhibition Stadium on the other hand, I knew as a young lad.I just made plans to be at AT&T Park in September for series against the dreaded Dodgers… good times.

    Anyone else play “throw the lawndart straight up in the air as hard as you can and scatter” as a youngster?Again, good times… unless you’re ‘tough luck Jimmy’ that is…

    He’s the guy with the eyepatch, right?

  159. ArmchairGM says:

    Pink Socks: PC trading for 1 year of Panarin is a bad decision period.Even if he would sign a UFA contract here after 1 season, he is easily in Drai territory.Not a wise move.

    What if he can get rid of the Lucic contract? Panarin’s extension would be doable then…

  160. Wolfpack says:

    OriginalPouzar: Smith isn’t right handed.He’s a left shot but he’s been playing the right side for Spokane.

    I heard Bob Green talk about him earlier today and he said he’s more effective on the right side.

    I’m a bit worried they draft him as a right shot D without knowing if he will be as effective on this off-side at the NHL level.

    The NHL game is so much faster, players need to play and think faster, having your back hand to center ice makes it harder.

    Maybe he is one of the rare d-men that don’t lose effectiveness moving the puck on their off side. I feel its a risk though.

    Well said, this is my concern exactly about this potential pick. I also have more concerns than most when it comes to drafting undersized defencemen in the first round.

  161. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think we are (or should be) in the market for any upper-elite d-man that is approaching UFA status and will need over $10M on a new contract – plus the assets out to acquire the player further depleting organizational depth at certain NHL and prospect positions.

    Nope, just wait until they hit the open market next summer. While everyone else is salivating over Karlsson and Doughty, we slide in and pick up Ellis for FMV.

  162. JustWatt says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for this. Good info and I hear your concern but it seems a little common to all Dmen making the jump to the big leagues. After watching Russel, who was billed as a left-hander who was comfortable on his backhand, do so poorly, I hope that if they drafted Smith that they would not try and put him on the right side. However, that level of comfort could be a big plus if you are the one Dman running the point on an umbrella set up PP, which from his highlights he frequently was. Seems like the best way to run a player like him is LD 5×5 and then let him patrol the whole blue line on the PP.

    As an undersized defenseman I think it would also be wise for whoever drafts him, Boquist, and Merkley to let these kids develop in lower leagues for a few years before easing them into the NHL. It’s a big jump, no matter your talent or size.

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oh, definitely, I would imagine both Smith and Merkley are back in junior next season. Boquist would be eligible for the AHL but I would assume he stays in Sweden and plays a full year in the SHL, probably 2.

  164. JustWatt says:

    ArmchairGM: Nope, just wait until they hit the open market next summer. While everyone else is salivating over Karlsson and Doughty, we slide in and pick up Ellis for FMV.

    I wish I had your confidence. It seems like every year in April through June 1 that the FA crop will be bumper and then by July 1 most of the big names have dried up and its a players market. This year is not much different with only Tavares and Carlson as big fish available and one or both might sign with their current teams prior to July 1. If teams really want to land the big fish I think they have to take their move when they can. I would not be surprised if none of Karlsson, Doughty or Ellis make it to free agency next year.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    If we do draft Boquist, I will need to ready myself for his receipt of 7 min / game next year in the SHL (sky-rocketing to 20 the following year though).

  166. blainer says:

    Maybe Stauffer is setting us up with a Larsson for Parayko trade.

  167. Jordan says:

    ArmchairGM: What if he can get rid of the Lucic contract? Panarin’s extension would be doable then…

    Why… Yes.

    I would be in favour of a Panarin for Lucic trade. The money even works 1 for 1.

    Looks like a good old fashion hockey trade to me.

    #amIdoingthisright?

  168. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM: Nope, just wait until they hit the open market next summer. While everyone else is salivating over Karlsson and Doughty, we slide in and pick up Ellis for FMV.

    Is it not more likely that the clubs who clear their books for a run at one of the first two and lose out subsequently outgun us for the consolation prize?

  169. Andy Dufresne says:

    Professor Q:
    Andy Dufresne,

    But why can’t Edmonton be the team that unlocks his potential?

    I always see trades here trying to trade away players and hope they do well on other teams instead of retooling Edmonton and having success here, or having them continue to do well what they do well, etc.

    Instead of once again gambling on another deal.

    Sure, some might be needed, but too many gambles in the spot where Edmonton is now from the gambles already taken…both positive and negative…could ruin the soup.

    Its a fair question. I dont know why…..I just know that it hasnt happened in two years in Edmonton. So chances are its not going to happen here. Dont get me wrong, I like Kassian. IMO what he brings has value. Just think that if all we’re going to get from him is 4th line value then his trade value may be higher than his utlization value on this roster with this coach.

    I guess there is a small chance that his utlization changes with all the new assistant coaches in place. But now seems like a reasonable time to sell high.

    Of course if we end up moving Lucic then we probably want to keep Kassian.

  170. ArmchairGM says:

    JustWatt: I wish I had your confidence. It seems like every year in April through June 1 that the FA crop will be bumper and then by July 1 most of the big names have dried up and its a players market. This year is not much different with only Tavares and Carlson as big fish available and one or both might sign with their current teams prior to July 1. If teams really want to land the big fish I think they have to take their move when they can. I would not be surprised if none of Karlsson, Doughty or Ellis make it to free agency next year.

    Haven’t both Karlsson and Doughty mentioned testing the free agent waters? I think Ellis will be signed this summer.

    And it’s not confidence, it’s spitballing. 😉

  171. Wilde says:

    Penguins apparently looking for a RW for LW swap, shopped Rust and Sheary in an attempt to get Max Domi.

  172. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – We’ve got a pretty good picture now of what the slary situation is for the Oil: Current cap hit around $68MM. Say Strome at 2×3, and Nurse 2 x 3.5. That’s around 75.5MM.

    – So we have between 4.5 – 6.5MM to fill a few winger spots ($80-82MM). Call it $5MM.

    – If you want to give nurse the Klef longer-term deal maybe a little less, but we are pretty set, and can get some 1-2M players and/or a cheapo and a $3MM guy.

  173. ArmchairGM says:

    Jordan: Why… Yes.

    I would be in favour of a Panarin for Lucic trade.The money even works 1 for 1.

    Looks like a good old fashion hockey trade to me.

    #amIdoingthisright?

    I like where this is heading… 😀

    I mean, he only cost them Saad, right? And Saad isn’t worth much more than Lucic. We’ll be generous and throw in a 3rd just to get the deal done.

  174. Andy Dufresne says:

    Assuming the draft scenario that is the most likely is the one that pisses off the most people on this site, we narrowly miss out on the top 9 when NYR grab Whalstrom right in front of us! and we take Smith and Boqvist goes to the NYI to play with Ebbs and Barzal.

    #maximumangst

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    bendelson,

    Heads up.

    I’ve got a big ass pork shoulder in the Q.Warm potato salad, picklied beets, some slaw and crudite on the side.Along with some footie on the screen ( the second most beautiful game on the planet – whoops, I take that back. The 3rd – after baseball).

    Bring a couple of dancing women, some bourbon, the Woodguy, some stories and your senses of humour. I’ve got the tunes and the beer covered.

    Life is good, as Bourdain used to say. First real week of summer, and the effin days are goona get shorter by the weekend.

    Toonie bets on the draft pick and Looch out. Plus lawn darts and the draft lists.

    Here in NMC land, we make our own fun.

    I love you so much it hurts.

  176. Pink Socks says:

    ArmchairGM: What if he can get rid of the Lucic contract? Panarin’s extension would be doable then…

    Perhaps, but even then, the acquisition cost will be rough. The Jackets need a 2LD with Johnson likely on the move.

    Lucic + Klefbom + JP + #10 for Panarin (extended) and a JD Dudek contract get it done? But then we’re up shit creek if one of the $8m guys gets injured, and our D resembles the decade of darkness.

    I’d much rather Carolina stay drunk and allows PC to go the route of something along the lines of Lucic and JP for Hanafin on July 2nd.

  177. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: I’d break down the players like this:

    Forwards:

    EDM McDavid

    WSH Kuznetsov
    WSH Ovechkin
    WSH Backstrom

    EDM Draisatl

    WSH Oshie
    EDM Nugent-Hopkins
    WSH Burakovsky

    Defensemen:

    WSH Niskanen

    WSH Carlson
    EDM Klefbom
    WSH Orlov
    WSH Djoos
    EDM Larsson

    Larsson is 2nd behind Niskanen, otherwise your list is good.

  178. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stephen sheps:
    Melvis,

    I’m so in for this! And I’ll reach out to Blackdog Pat and have him join us as well. He’s usually up for beers with fellow Oilers fans.

    And when I’m back in Saskatoon next March, I’ll be sure to give you ample notice.

    Somehow LT strikes me as more of a Speyside Sherry-bomb scotch drinker than an Islay or Campbelltown peat monster, but I say this based exclusively on his writing and the gentle, welcoming tone of this place. Then again, Islay was about the most warm and welcoming place I’ve ever visited, so what the hell do I know?!

    Is it too early in the day for a dram?

    If you find your way to Toontown and are looking up Melvis I could probably figure out a business reason to be there.

  179. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    That said the first round of the draft isn’t a completely rational ranking of talent in the first place. Recency bias, tournaments of small sample size, gossip, innuendo, combine performance and the insidious impact of gamesmanship guarantee that. It is still troubling that the first 15 to 20 picks each year are more and more closely following Bob’s rankings. Even the last half of the first round looks like Bob’s list.

    Not sure which show it was on, but I heard a Central Scouting (I think it was CS, not positive) say this about Ty Smith:

    Q: “what’s the difference between Smith and the Dmen ranked in the top 10”

    A: “in terms of offence of throughout the year he deserves to be top 10 with those other guys but he had a bad U18 and dropped a lot”

    There you go.

    Tournaments of small sample sizes strikes again.

  180. Andy Dufresne says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Assuming the draft scenario that is the most likely is the one that pisses off the most people on this site, we narrowly miss out on the top 9 when NYR grab Whalstrom right in front of us! and we take Smith and Boqvist goes to the NYI to play with Ebbs and Barzal.

    #maximumangst

    Personally, Im entering the weekend beleiving we are getting one of the top 9 and Smith is our backstop at 10.

  181. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde: I’d break down the players like this:

    Forwards:

    EDM McDavid

    WSH Kuznetsov
    WSH Ovechkin
    WSH Backstrom

    EDM Draisatl

    WSH Oshie
    EDM Nugent-Hopkins
    WSH Burakovsky

    Defensemen:

    WSH Niskanen

    WSH Carlson
    EDM Klefbom
    WSH Orlov
    WSH Djoos
    EDM Larsson

    – I might quibble a bit, but I don’t really see anything in your list that doesn’t support the thesis that we have as much upper end talent as WASH.

    – There guys are a older, I take McD and Drai someguy , over their 2,3,4.

    – Burakovsky had a career year/playoffs (when we win cups our wingers will do same)

    – Remember this WAS team has had many cracks and they finally won.

    – Your bleeding in the secondary players in as well: I wouldn’t trade McD, Drai and RNH for Kutz, Ovie and Back

    – Klef and Larsson had an off year, but not much between the top pairings

    – Anyway, even if your right 100%, I don’t see a material difference in the “talent” of our top-5 or 6 and theirs. they just won it all this year and players had career years, and their goalie got hot, then he was demoted, then the former stater goalie who sucked came in and saved the day, now the former starter will get traded next year

  182. Andy Dufresne says:

    Wilde: I’d break down the players like this:

    Forwards:

    EDM McDavid

    WSH Kuznetsov
    WSH Ovechkin
    WSH Backstrom

    EDM Draisatl

    WSH Oshie
    EDM Nugent-Hopkins
    WSH Burakovsky

    Defensemen:

    WSH Niskanen

    WSH Carlson
    EDM Klefbom
    WSH Orlov
    WSH Djoos
    EDM Larsson

    Forwards look right as far as present value.

    But you wouldnt trade Draisaitl for Ovechkin or Backstorm based on future value.

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: When thinking about a Karlsson acquisition, I think we all need to keep in mind that there is absolutely no guarantee that he signs an extension with the Oilers.
    Pierre LeBrun advised that expressly (not related to the Oilers but in general) on the Lowetide yesterday.
    Also, lets not forget that the Oilers were on Karlsson’s no trade list a while back (as far as I know) so, even if he accepts a trade to Edmonton now to get away from Ottawa, its very likely he will test free agency.
    He has also expressed the desire to get what he’s worth in free agency so, if he does re-sign, I don’t imagine it will be under $10M per year.
    I’d love the player on this team but the risk is too big for me on the anticipated acquisition cost.

    Those numbers add up if we account for JPs bonuses for around $1.5M and it leaves $5M in cap space for 4 players (as its with a 19 person roster) – a 4C, and the three press-box players.

    So, as we know, there is zero cap space for a UFA acquisition.

  184. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Most of the talk about dumping Lucic’s contract involves adding value to get another team to take him.

    Doug Wilson has Boedker who costs $4MM/yr on the cap ($3MM/yr in real $) for the next two years.

    Boedker has spend time on the 4th line and been a healthy scratch.

    Doug doesn’t resign himself to a buyout or adding value to a dump.

    He gets himself involved in a Hoffman trade and ends up:

    1) Dumping Boedker and his salary and cap.
    2) Trading out Bergan, 2020 5th and 2018 7th.
    3) Getting back Donaghey, 2nd in 2019, 2018 4th, 2018 5th

    That’s a Master Class in NHL GMing

    I guess his duel offersheets to CHI for Hjalrmasson/Niemi hasn’t kept other GMs from trading with him……

    Wish he ran the Oilers.

  185. Spartacus says:

    I’d be leery of drafting Kotkaniemi…I’ve heard he plays like a prototypical Assat.

  186. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    VOR,

    That said the first round of the draft isn’t a completely rational ranking of talent in the first place. Recency bias, tournaments of small sample size, gossip, innuendo, combine performance and the insidious impact of gamesmanship guarantee that. It is still troubling that the first 15 to 20 picks each year are more and more closely following Bob’s rankings. Even the last half of the first round looks like Bob’s list.

    Not sure which show it was on, but I heard a Central Scouting (I think it was CS, not positive) say this about Ty Smith:

    Q: “what’s the difference between Smith and the Dmen ranked in the top 10”

    A: “in terms of offence of throughout the year he deserves to be top 10 with those other guys but he had a bad U18 and dropped a lot”

    There you go.

    Tournaments of small sample sizes strikes again.

    Interesting that Jonathan Willis’s mock draft based soley on analytics has Ty Smith at 6, ahead of most of the highly valued forwards ( Zadina, Whalstrom, Tkchuck, Kotkaneimi)

    The Canucks Army posting that you linked us to the other day was the most comprehensive analysis Iv seen on any player this year. It really sold me on Smith over Boqvist, well that and LTs recommendation.

  187. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: Those numbers add up if we account for JPs bonuses for around $1.5M and it leaves $5M in cap space for 4 players (as its with a 19 person roster) – a 4C, and the three press-box players.

    So, as we know, there is zero cap space for a UFA acquisition.

    – One of the aspects of the CBA is the allocation of these bonuses for players on their entry deals. First, there is a 7.5% “cushion” should players achieve these, second these bonuses are only “allocated the year after”

    – Pool’s cap hit this year is $925K, full stop, no ifs and or buts: you calculate the bonuses for next year (the proverbial kick the can down the road)

    – Jesse’s potential $2.5MM of bonus doesn’t effect this year’s cap

    – I know you have often stated that there is no cap space. Assuming bridge for Nurse, and 2×3 for Strome, I think you are incorrect. If the Cap is $82MM, we have even more room.

    – Mind you it doesn’t matter, because there will be other moves that will no doubt create space.

  188. JustWatt says:

    ArmchairGM: Haven’t both Karlsson and Doughty mentioned testing the free agent waters? I think Ellis will be signed this summer.

    And it’s not confidence, it’s spitballing.

    That’s very fair and maybe they go through with it. And without researching the subject I can’t say definitively but players who are offered market value or close to it by their home teams who don’t suck or who aren’t in the hinterlands seem to usually take the deal to stay. It sounds like Nashville might be over their crush on PK and move him on for the right deal. If that happens then the small chance Ellis could get dealt or go to free agency becomes zilch.

  189. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Really? I’d have Orlov at the top of the D list. Agreed on Larsson.

  190. Munny says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Are your questions wandering around here somewhere?

  191. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Most of the talk about dumping Lucic’s contract involves adding value to get another team to take him.

    Doug Wilson has Boedker who costs $4MM/yr on the cap ($3MM/yr in real $) for the next two years.

    Boedker has spend time on the 4th line and been a healthy scratch.

    Doug doesn’t resign himself to a buyout or adding value to a dump.

    He gets himself involved in a Hoffman trade and ends up:

    1) Dumping Boedker and his salary and cap.
    2) Trading outBergan, 2020 5th and 2018 7th.
    3) Getting back Donaghey,2nd in 2019,2018 4th, 2018 5th

    That’s a Master Class in NHL GMing

    I guess his duel offersheets to CHI for Hjalrmasson/Niemi hasn’t kept other GMs from trading with him……

    Wish he ran the Oilers.

    Good point.

    I would set the bar with this “type” of trade as a goal in the Lucic deal.
    .
    But wouldnt expect as much value back given the term and the dollars associated with Lucic contract.
    .
    So I would set the comparable at Lucic out “without any sweetner”. Fair?
    .
    With Boedker Wilson was moving out $4m x 2yrs. With Lucic its moving out $6m x 5yrs.
    .
    Thats $8m vs $30m

    I dont really know the value of Bergen or Donaghey.

  192. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Most of the talk about dumping Lucic’s contract involves adding value to get another team to take him.

    Doug Wilson has Boedker who costs $4MM/yr on the cap ($3MM/yr in real $) for the next two years.

    Boedker has spend time on the 4th line and been a healthy scratch.

    Doug doesn’t resign himself to a buyout or adding value to a dump.

    He gets himself involved in a Hoffman trade and ends up:

    1) Dumping Boedker and his salary and cap.
    2) Trading outBergan, 2020 5th and 2018 7th.
    3) Getting back Donaghey,2nd in 2019,2018 4th, 2018 5th

    That’s a Master Class in NHL GMing

    I guess his duel offersheets to CHI for Hjalrmasson/Niemi hasn’t kept other GMs from trading with him……

    Wish he ran the Oilers.

    Lucic won’t/wouldn’t go to Ottawa so it was a complete non-starter.

  193. Munny says:

    I wonder though, if the Hoffman trade to FLA eliminated one of the possible suitors for Looch…

  194. Munny says:

    Yak just named 45th worst 1st overall pick out of 49 picks by TSN.

    Daigle, Wickenheiser, Joly, Lawton only picks worse. Stefan finished one ahead.

  195. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t get why Ottawa made that trade. I would have rather just waived him

  196. jm363561 says:

    Wilde: I did an exercise on this awhile back and came to the complete opposite conclusion.

    The Oilers have a better top player, but they start getting beaten out by most teams by the third name, and then it gets extremely ugly as most elite teams have ~9 players better than our 6th best.

    We obviously disagree here, so I’d like you to show your work on this sentiment.

    This year the Oilers have one player better than everyone on the Caps, but the Caps then have three forwards better than our 2nd best forward and it only gets steeper of an advantage as you go down the lineup.

    I did the same exercise and reckoned, on a line by line, pair by pair, basis, Connor definitely (although Kuznetsov is a fabulous player), and possibly Draisaitl and Larsson, might have made the Caps team. I am really disappointed with the state of our 23 man roster, the lack of depth, the cap situation, and the Coach. Can’t wait for October 😀

  197. ArmchairGM says:

    Pink Socks: Perhaps, but even then, the acquisition cost will be rough.The Jackets need a 2LD with Johnson likely on the move.

    Lucic + Klefbom + JP + #10 for Panarin (extended) and a JD Dudek contract get it done?But then we’re up shit creek if one of the $8m guys gets injured, and our D resembles the decade of darkness.

    I’d much rather Carolina stay drunk and allows PC to go the route of something along the lines of Lucic and JP for Hanafin on July 2nd.

    Yeah, I wasn’t actually thinking to include Lucic in the Panarin deal, just to get rid of the contract. Would you do Klefbom + JP + #10 for Panarin + #19 or whatever Columbus holds? Or maybe we convince CLB to go with Yamamoto instead – they didn’t seem to like JP the first time round.

  198. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: Lucic won’t go to Ottawa so it’s a complete non-starter.

    I’m frankly amazed that you think something like this can only happen with one team.

    The hubub around Lucic is that if it happens it will be a “hockey trade”, that’s closer to what Wilson did compared to a dump.

  199. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Really? I’d have Orlov at the top of the D list.Agreed on Larsson.

    Orlov is good, but doesn’t defend nearly as well as Niskanen or Larsson yet.

    Its what you create minus what you give up.

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