Rocket Man

by Lowetide

The NHL chronicles its history via awards, post-season All-Star teams and Stanley Cups. Each of these measurements are important and all of them rely heavily on individual greatness and peak performance. Last night, in the flashiest place on earth, Connor McDavid continued his assault on all available hardware.

“To the city if Edmonton, we’ll be back I promise.” 

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: The maturation of Daryl Katz, or heading down a dangerous road?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 10 prospects in front of the 2018 draft.
  • Jonathan Willis: The framework of a hypothetical Milan Lucic trade
  • Mitch Brown: Tracking the best CHL blue in five data tracking categories
  • Lowetide: tough and important week for Peter Chiarelli
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 Mock Draft.
  • Jonathan Willis: Ranking the 2018 draft based on statistical performance.
  • Lowetide: The WHL draft pool 2018: Where are the forwards?
  • Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
  • Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

ART ROSS TROPHY

  • 7 Wayne Gretzky (1981 to 1987)
  • 2 Connor McDavid (2017, 2018)

CONN SMYTHE TROPHY

  • 2 Wayne Gretzky (1985, 1988)
  • 1 Mark Messier (1984)
  • 1 Bill Ranford (1990)

HART TROPHY

  • 8 Wayne Gretzky (1980 to 1987)
  • 1 Mark Messier (1990)
  • 1 Connor McDavid (2017) 

TED LINDSAY

  • 5 Wayne Gretzky (1982, 1983, 1984, 1985 and 1987)
  • 2 Connor McDavid (2017, 2018)
  • 1 Mark Messier (1990)

SHOPPING NO. 10 OVERALL

  • Bob McKenzieAs much as they’d be prepared, for the right player, to give up the 10th overall pick in the draft, they don’t see that player out there right now. Yeah, they’d like a right shot offensive defenceman. Everyone wants one of those. And Edmonton desperately needs one, but if they had a really good left shot offensive defenceman who became available, they’d certainly look at that too for that 10th pick or some other assets. That’s their number one priority, their number one goal is to try and get that. The guy they really want, I think, is not available. His name is Ryan Ellis of the Nashville Predators. A year left on his contract. David Poile’s number one priority is to extend him this summer. If he doesn’t get extended then he could perhaps become available but not in time for this weekend.”

Lots to unload here, notably the Oilers are shopping in a very nice neighbourhood (Ryan Ellis). As we get through today, if there is no trade involving a veteran, I do think the No. 10 overall selection becomes the pressure point.

Justin Faulk is available, maybe Tyson Barrie. My hope is the Oilers make the pick at No. 10, and see how this thing plays out over the next 12 months. Grab some wingers, a No. 4 center and a couple of penalty killers and you’re good to go.

Blue Bullet is a must read every year, fascinating process and worth looking back years later to see how things rhyme. He’s made a lot of astute predictions over the years.

HOW MANY GOALS?

How many goals from the Nuge-McDavid-Rattie line this season? I’m assuming Rattie doesn’t hold the job for the entire year, but his replacement will score some in his absence. Let’s say 80 goals, that’s 40 from 97, 25 from RNH and the rest for Rattie and company. Let’s say Leon Draisaitl spends the season with Matt Calvert and Jesse Puljujarvi. Let’s further say the trio scores 60 goals. That’s 140 goals on two lines. Question: Do you think think the rest of the Oilers roster will score 140 goals combined? What happens when McDavid is at rest is the single biggest problem with Peter Chiarelli’s Oilers. Here’s my quick and dirty ‘projected goals’ for next season. I have 215 goals listed, that’s shy by many.

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins [25]—Connor McDavid [40]—Ty Rattie [12]
  • Milan Lucic [15]—Leon Draisaitl [27]—Drake Caggiula [12]
  • Jujhar Khaira [8]—Ryan Strome [15]—Jesse Puljujarvi [16]
  • Pontus Aberg [7]—Brad Malone [3]—Zack Kassian [8]
  • Oscar Klefbom [8]—Adam Larsson [2]
  • Andrej Sekera [4]—Kris Russell [2]
  • Darnell Nurse [5]—Matt Benning [6]
  • Cam Talbot3—Mikko Koskinen

The absence of alternatives clears the mind. Austin Czarnik is a free agent July 1 and I think a strong fit for this Oilers team. He’s a center by trade and is a righty, two things the Oilers can use. Boston has a ton of young players bubbling up, this is a perfect storm for a team like Edmonton to slide in and grab him in free agency.

CHIARELLI’S NEEDS LIST

  • A scoring winger capable of sliding up and down the depth chart as required (Rattie insurance and a finisher for Leon’s line).
  • A two-way winger who can provide veteran presence on the third line.
  • A second-pairing defender (patience may require this solution arrives later).
  • A backup goalie (Mikko Noskinen).

I don’t see the RHD for the power play as being the main priority, the Oilers clearly do based on all available verbal. If they get something done today I expect it’ll be on the defense.

CHIARELLI’S ASSETS LIST

  1. No. 10 overall. Moves up based on what the market is saying.
  2. Milan Lucic.  No idea what the market might be, suspect he goes after July 1.
  3. Zack Kassian. He’s likely in a few conversations.
  4. Oscar Klefbom. The OEL signing has him moving down my list (from No. 1).
  5. Jesse Puljujarvi. He’s vulnerable, suspect they’ll regret dealing the big man.
  6. Ryan Strome. Oilers may want to reset that third line.
  7. Andrej Sekera. Injury unknown likely keeps him here.
  8. Kris Russell. NMC probably keeps him here.
  9. Cam Talbot. I don’t believe it but his name is out there.

Today is a big day. If we don’t hear anything about trades then it’ll either happen on the draft floor or sometime next week (possibly through salary dump and free agency).

TAYLOR HALL

I was happy to see Taylor Hall win the Hart last night, he’d earned it but isn’t the same as winning the award. Connor McDavid also earned the honor, but the NHL has weird rules and traditions passed down from scribe to scribe since Biblical times. I know there’s a ton of rage on both sides today, for me this was an outstanding result and a deserved result.

I also wanted to mention the awards show itself. I’ll admit to crying a river and ending up a mess during the Humboldt Broncos piece, absolutely devastating to see the images again. It was beautiful to see the healing, a hopeful moment in a tragic story that will never be forgotten. I thought Christina Haugan was so courageous, her speech was perfect for the moment. It must have been very difficult for her to read it, in that situation, but there was a lot of wisdom in her words. Heartbreaking.

Finally, a word about Adam Larsson. I made my opinion on the trade known long ago, but at this point it’s baffling to me why people hammer on the defenseman. He didn’t trade himself to Edmonton, and he is a productive NHL player. I’m all for leveling blame but please have the courage to aim your blows where they belong.

DANGER

What you really hope, if you’re an Oilers fan, is the organization stays resolute in their plan and refuses to make a deal that bleeds more talent. It may be tempting to change the headline this morning, but that’s unwise if the deal is a net loss. As an example, Oscar Klefbom being dealt would be a very poor decision today unless an equal quality RHD with the same brilliant contract is coming back in return.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

If the Oilers are going to trade a roster player, suspect it happens today. I’ll be all over it on the Lowdown. At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Simon Boisvert, Prospect Insider. Simon will give us his opinion on the right pick for Montreal, Ottawa and Edmonton, plus look at some gems for the second round and later.
  • Josh Eberley, Hoop Magazine. NBA draft tonight, Raptors looking to move into the top 10.
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN and NHL.com. Rob will give us the best possible ways to get some cap room before July 1.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Kinger_Oil.redux

– OK I haven’t posted this in awhile (and no credit for Benning now!) Quite a few had the right years, and close to AAV by the way.

– I’ll repost a few times up to draft day:

– I’ve posted this for the last few years. It’s a diversion for the summer: we all get to be arm-chair GM’s. Contest the off-season elaborate version of Hunters. Winner gets a donation to LT.

What will the Oilers do (not what should they do, or what you would do!)?:

1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)? 2×1.9
4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
12) Who is the most expensive Edmonton off-season FA signing?: bonus if you get multiple right

Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

OriginalPouzar

Great statement by McDavid – nice to hear it, will be better to see it in action.

Woogie63

Nuge has to score 40 goals to stay on a line with McDavid.

OriginalPouzar

At least Chiarelli is targeting the proper position in my opinion (top 4 right shot D) if he is to dispose of the 10th overall pick.

Of course, given our lack of cap space, we cannot trade a pick for a material player unless there is a corresponding move to send cap out (or a player added in the trade with cap out).

We can go over the cap during the off-season so he can make the initial move but there will need to be cap out at some point.

Here is hoping that cap out is NOT 77, 25 (impending cap), 93, 6, 29, 97 – the core – unless we are talking about a serious upgrade, a true 1st pairing d-man who we will be able to fit in to our cap structure going forward (i.e. not going to need to be re-signed at $9M plus in a year or two).

vinotintazo

Kinger_Oil.redux:

1. Boqvist
2. 6 x 4M
3. 2 x 1.9M lol?
4. 3 x 2.95M
5. Yamamoto
6. No
7. Draisaitl
8. Strome
9. McDavid
10. All are back.
11. 1, Kassian for a C.
12. Maroon 3 x 3M

OriginalPouzar

I don’t see a RHD for the PP as a prority either but I see a RHD that can play in the top 4 and transition the puck effectively as a priority. Presumably this type of player can also play on the PP but that’s a bonus to me.

Kris Russell at 2RD isn’t an option if we are to move the needle forward and “play faster”.

Matt Benning may be able to be the guy but he’s yet to prove it. We were betting on him last year and lost the bet. Maybe now, in his third year pro, he’s ready?

Kinger_Oil.redux

– LT: to be fair you said it’s a first stab, but when you say: ” I have 215 goals listed, that’s shy by many”, your projecting this team as is will score less than last year?

– Projecting 24 goals for the 2 LW playing with CmD and Drai: this would be an issue. 20 goal increase just in the PP is not a reach (they scored 56 2 years ago, 31 this year)

Pink Socks

Thanks LT, great piece this morning, you’re on the mark.

“I’m all for leveling blame but please have the courage to aim your blows where they belong.”

Especially here. We all knew the moment the trade was made that it was one made for need, that it was not a good trade from a value basis, and that it would be an item of discussion for a decade or more. Last night likely cements the trade into the all time blunders list if it wasn’t already. The main issue as you mentioned though is that Adam Larsson is an excellent NHL defenseman and we are lucky he is a member of this team. Larsson should not be the target of angst, but rather MacT, Lowe, the pro scouts, and PC for not putting the brakes on prior to pulling the trigger.

Pink Socks

OriginalPouzar:
I don’t see a RHD for the PP as a prority either but I see a RHD that can play in the top 4 and transition the puck effectively as a priority.Presumably this type of player can also play on the PP but that’s a bonus to me.

Kris Russell at 2RD isn’t an option if we are to move the needle forward and “play faster”.

Matt Benning may be able to be the guy but he’s yet to prove it.We were betting on him last year and lost the bet.Maybe now, in his third year pro, he’s ready?

I agree, however, if Russell and/or Sekera waive their NMC and are moved, then I think it’s a luxury the team can afford.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

OriginalPouzar,

It’s absolutely Klefbom that will be traded. I’m just hoping its not for another LHD.

Sekera – Trouba (wishful thinking)
Nurse – Larson
Russel – Benning

Chia signed all these guys, and they aren’t going anywhere.. Even if Trouba costs 6M on a long term deal, It’s only 2 more than we paid for D last year.

OriginalPouzar

I would guess that Czarnik re-ups with Boston but perhaps he wants to see what’s out there in free agency and maybe will look to sign with a team with a clearer path to the NHL (i.e. Oilers).

OriginalPouzar

Chiarelli is holding a pre-draft press conference at 11 mountain.

I think its today (as opposed to tomorrow, draft day) but the tweet from the Oilers is not clear.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

OriginalPouzar:
At least Chiarelli is targeting the proper position in my opinion (top 4 right shot D) if he is to dispose of the 10th overall pick.

Of course, given our lack of cap space, we cannot trade a pick for a material player unless there is a corresponding move to send cap out (or a player added in the trade with cap out).

We can go over the cap during the off-season so he can make the initial move but there will need to be cap out at some point.

Here is hoping that cap out is NOT 77, 25 (impending cap), 93, 6, 29, 97 – the core – unless we are talking about a serious upgrade, a true 1st pairing d-man who we will be able to fit in to our cap structure going forward (i.e. not going to need to be re-signed at $9M plus in a year or two).

It’s absolutely Klefbom that will be traded. I’m just hoping its not for another LHD.
Sekera – Trouba (wishful thinking)
Nurse – Larson
Russel – Benning
Chia signed all these guys, and they aren’t going anywhere.. Even if Trouba costs 6M on a long term deal, It’s only 2 more than we paid for D last year.

OriginalPouzar

Well deserved Hart Trophy for Taylor Hall (given the criteria the writers/voters use).

I am still not convinced that if we take Adam Larsson off the team and replace him with Taylor Hall it makes the Oilers a better team (I’m not convinced it doesn’t either).

No, we did not get full value for Taylor Hall in the trade but Larsson is a VERY important part of this team (as was Taylor Hall).

UnjustEnrichment

Congratulations to Taylor Hall on winning the Hart Trophy. Let this be a reminder that one ought to be cautious about trading away very good players who are still developing. The Hall Trade may effectively “immunize” Peter Chiarelli from making another similarly risky move this June. In other words, do not trade Puljujarvi. Be patient and prudent.

But Adam Larsson is a very good defenceman who can, I believe, still get better. He is valuable and we did get something back for Hall, even if the deal was inadvisable because of Hall’s ultimate potential to do what he just did.

Snowman

Woogie63:
Nuge has to score 40 goals to stay on a line with McDavid.

There were 8 people who scored 40 goals last year. So maybe let’s cool the jets on Nuge being a 40 goal scorer.

30 sure let’s talk about 30.

40 is thin air territory.

stephen sheps

Kinger_Oil.redux:

1 Want? Bouchard or Wahlstrom. Actual pick? Smith
2 2×4.167 (bridge at same AAV as Dreamy’s contract)
3 2×1.9
4 2×2.85 (lower real dollars this year, higher next)
5 Yes, but none of the above (Lowe jr. as the 7D, Yamamoto makes the team out of camp)
6 No, but that Hunter fellow Toronto let go would be a nice capologist
7 Viktor Rask (Car) or LD if he’s not shipped out
8 Strome
9 Leon
10 Klefbom/Hanifin and I’m a very sad Sheps
11 1 -> Lucic & Dreamy for Hanifin, cap space and sadness
12 Vanek, overpaid by about 1.5mil/yr too much and 1 year too long. Lowe has coveted Vanek since the offer sheet days and finally lands his whale. Chiarelli however negotiates the deal and blows it because it’s what he does.

russ99

I don’t think anyone sees playoff team with that lineup.

That’s the problem, we need help, need to make moves to get help.

Would like to see Lucic dealt with cap relief for a decent player, not a bad contract for someone else’s bum. That would be after the bonus vests, not sure the date, I think it’s before July 1st.

Would like to see Klefbom moved for a better RHD, would prefer to avoid moving #10 and Jesse, but if we have to it would fix a glaring need. At worst we should get a low 1st or high 2nd back to continue to push the prospect pool. While Klefbom puts up good numbers and makes good passses on an average to good salary, he’s deficient at important areas of the game we can improve on, and the injury history is concerning. We can improve the position by trading Klefbom.

Remember we made the playoffs a year ago because we reduced goals against, and we missed it this year due to going back to previous goals against levels. That’s not only on the goalie. When we’re making moves we need goal prevention just as much as or more than goal scoring.

fifthcartel

Taylor Hall winning the Hart is a big deal. Trading away the guy who goes on to be MVP two seasons later is bound to look bad. It’s a tough look when they succeed elsewhere, but this has to be embarrassing for the organization.

Obviously he’s not going to be fired after that Nicholson conference earlier, but this helps for sure imo. He’ll have to knock it out of the park (he won’t) or else he’s gone next season.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Another thing re: scoring projections LT: if you take the 5×5 scoring from this year (which was poor), and they had last years PP, that’s 25 more goals. This would be the total goals scored by the Stanley Cup team this year.

– We should be reasonably confident that scoring enough goals won’t be as significant factor in sinking this team as it did last IMO.

Pink Socks

UnjustEnrichment:
Congratulations to Taylor Hall on winning the Hart Trophy. Let this be a reminder that one ought tobe cautious about trading away very good players who are still developing. The Hall Trade may effectively “immunize” Peter Chiarelli from making another similarly risky move this June.In other words, do not trade Puljujarvi. Be patient and prudent.

But Adam Larsson is a very good defenceman who can, I believe, still get better. He is valuable and we did get something back for Hall, even if the deal was inadvisable because of Hall’s ultimate potential to do what he just did.

If JP packaged with Lucic brings back Hanafin I would be on board with that move.

unca miltie

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– OK I haven’t posted this in awhile (and no credit for Benning now!)Quite a few had the right years, and close to AAVby the way.

– I’ll repost a few timesup to draft day:

– I’ve posted this for the last few years. It’s a diversion for the summer: we all get to be arm-chair GM’s. Contest the off-season elaborate version of Hunters. Winner gets a donation to LT.

What will the Oilers do (not what should they do, or what you would do!)?:

1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)? 2×1.9
4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
12) Who is the most expensive Edmonton off-season FA signing?: bonus if you get multiple right

Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

lets give this a try
1) boquist
2)3 years 3.5 for nurse
3)1.9 for 2 years according to Rishaug
4) strome will get 3 million X 2 years
5) bear is on openning day roster
6)no more managers
7) Lucic with strome
8) jesse with Drai
9)Kailer with McDavid
10) i hope I am wrong to say that Klef is gone
11)2 trades
12)Is the goaler Mikko Koskinen

Richard S.S.

We never had this Taylor Hall on the Oilers, never ever. If the Oilers never trade him, we would still never have this Taylor Hall on the Oilers. I am not a Taylor Hall fanatic and I’m not changing now. With a Taylor Hall this good, there would be no reason to trade him. The talent was always there, why didn’t he use it as an Oiler?

Professor Q

Richard S.S.,

Terrible coaches, terrible management, strained and bored from years of losing (even while still young), a bit chippy and laurel-resting from his OHL success perhaps, etc. From his own mouth.

Maybe if he wasn’t traded he never would have gotten the kick in the pants. But maybe if he was kept and the coaching staff were changed to one which would light his fire (why not compete with McDavid for best player on the team? Was that not enough?)?

stephen sheps

Richard S.S.: With a Taylor Hall this good, there would be no reason to trade him. The talent was always there, why didn’t he use it as an Oiler?

I get where you’re coming from but respectfully disagree. The lockout season and even Eakins year of hell #1, Hall was over 1ppg and essentially carrying the team on his back. The Devils, while maybe lacking the scoring depth of the Oilers in those 2 seasons, had far better D and goaltending than the Oilers ever did during Hall’s time here and didn’t really have the coaching either. I really don’t see how an argument could be made that he didn’t use his talent as an Oiler.

1 player can make a massive difference, but even the best players can’t do all the things, all the time. McDavid taught us that this year. There are a whole host of reasons beyond talent alone that brought Hall the level of success he had this past season, but there’s also no real reason to make him into a scapegoat for the Oilers failures while he was here either.

JimmyV1965

russ99:
I don’t think anyone sees playoff team with that lineup.

That’s the problem, we need help, need to make moves to get help.

Would like to see Lucic dealt with cap relief for a decent player, not a bad contract for someone else’s bum. That would be after the bonus vests, not sure the date, I think it’s before July 1st.

Would like to see Klefbom moved for a better RHD, would prefer to avoid moving #10 and Jesse, but if we have to it would fix a glaring need. At worst we should get a low 1st or high 2nd back to continue to push the prospect pool. While Klefbom puts up good numbers and makes good passses on an average to good salary, he’s deficient at important areas of the game we can improve on, and the injury history is concerning. We can improve the position by trading Klefbom.

Remember we made the playoffs a year ago because we reduced goals against, and we missed it this year due to going back to previous goals against levels. That’s not only on the goalie. When we’re making moves we need goal prevention just as much as or more than goal scoring.

I think a very great deal of it is in the goalie. He was a tire fire to start the season. Some of if it is on the defence, but Talbot managed to improve his save percentage 10-15 pts in the last third of the season, when the defence was playing worse than it did early in the season.

DBO

1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)? 2×1.9
4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
12) Who is the most expensive Edmonton off-season FA signing?: bonus if you get multiple right

Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

1. Ty Smith
2. 2 years $2.95 per year
3. done
4. 1 year $2.95
5. Yamamoto on opening night
6. No addition to management until mid season
7. Lucic centre = Lindholm (Carolina)
8. Jesse centre = Strome.
9 Yamamoto centre = Draisatl
10. Benning is gone. Faulk replacement (in seperate deal)
11. 2 trades. Lucic and 3rd for Faulk. Benning for Burakovsky (washington. salary dump to sign Carlson and Devonte Smith-Pelley and Wilson)
12. Pat Maroon – 3 years, $3.25 mill per

Nuge-McDavid-Ratie
Maroon-Draisatl-Yamamoto
Burakovsky-Strome-Puljujarvi
Cagguila-Khaira-Kassian

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Faulk
Sekera-Russell

jtblack

IMHO the Top line of RNH-McD-Player(s)X will be at 100+ Goals this season.

McD – 50. On a mission. his scoring rate increased dramatically after January 1st and with RNH.

RNH – full year with Rocket Man = 35 Goals

RW(s) – 20 too many gifts not to hit 20.

See if Leon can actually drive his own line …. that will be the tell.

Rondo

Excellent interview with Brian Burke sitting at the draft table.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/650/sportsnets-starting-lineup/sitting-draft-table-brian-burke/

Jaxon

Snowman: There were 8 people who scored 40 goals last year. So maybe let’s cool the jets on Nuge being a 40 goal scorer.

30 sure let’s talk about 30.

40 is thin air territory.

40 is blue-skying it, but last season he scored at a 29 goal pace as a C with shitty linemates for the first 46 games (16 goals). So I think 30 is reasonable.
for his last 16 games with McDavid (if I have when he was switched correctly) he scored 8 goals, which is a 41 goal pace. With some extra chemistry starting last season and built over a season I think he could produce more than 40. We’ll see. It is being overly optimistic, but definitely in the realm of possibility. If one of the RWs step up or they find a free agent like Grabner, it might take even more pressure of Nuge and give him some more room to score.

EDIT: PS – I don’t think he needs to score 40 to stay on McDavid’s line. 30 will do. The fewer goals against (if he, in fact, helps with that) should also be counted as a plus for keeping him on that line. 30 goals and 10 fewer against should be counted smiliar to scoring 40.

EDIT #2 – aw crap, I had Nuge’s goals wrong. He actually scored better in his first 46 games than his last 16 games with McDavid. He scored at a 36 goal pace in 46 GP prior to being moved to McDavid’s line. Then he scored at a 20.5 goal pace for his final 16GP with McDavid. Ugggh. I just completely destroyed my argument. Well done, me. Somebody check my math, I may be too sleep deprived to do this.

leadfarmer

I think Drai needs a 6mil dollar winger more than Mcdavid. Although they really could use at least one each 🙂

One of the things that always comes to mind is how to stay ahead of the other teams and not chase like we have been. The game has completely changed in the last 5 years, even if some of you keep stamping your feet to disagree with me. But the number of sub 6 foot sub 190 lb d picked in the top half of the first round should put the argument to bed, and since we like telegraphing our moves we are probably picking one as well.
So whats the next step.
Well how do you counter those players.
Since they want to get involved in the offensive zone you need to punish them. Wingers with speed and size. Thats why I hope Kassian comes motivated to camp. Cause he is perfect for this. Say your are a 5’10 180 lb defenseman with a wobbly puck coming at you in the offensive zone. Well a 6’3 210 lb Zack Kassian who is just as fast as that player will make sure that whatever decision that defenseman makes is pretty much a bad one. He tries to play the puck he gets runover. He backs up he has to defend one on one something you dont want that player type to do.

cowboy bill

OriginalPouzar,

Colton Parayko could be that guy .

Jaxon

I did some permutations based on Blue bullet’s values (in order form favourite to least favourite):
TEAMS TRADES 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
EDM-PHI-MIN – 10&71 FOR 14&19 THEN 19 FOR 24&63 – 14 – 24 – 40 – 63 – 133 – 164 – 195 – X
EDM-PHI-LAK – 10&71 FOR 14&19 THEN 19&40 FOR 20,51&82 – 14 – 20 – 51 – 82 – 133 – 164 – 195 – X
EDM-PHI-MIN – 10&71 FOR 14&19 THEN 19 FOR 24&86 – 14 – 24 – 40 – 86 – 133 – 164 – 195 – X
EDM-PHI-ANA – 10&71 FOR 14&19 THEN 19&40 FOR 23,54&79 – 14 – 23 – 54 – 79 – 133 – 164 – 195 – X
EDM-PHI-MIN – 10&71 FOR 14&19 THEN 19&40 FOR 24,63,86&92 – 14 – 24 – 63 – 86 – 92 – 133 – 164 – 195
EDM-PHI-LAK – 10&71 FOR 14&19 THEN 19 FOR 20&175 – 14 – 20 – 40 – 133 – 164 – 175 – 195 – X
EDM-PHI-SJS – 10&71 FOR 14&19 THEN 19 FOR 21&182 – 14 – 21 – 40 – 133 – 164 – 182 – 195 – X
EDM-PHI-OTT – 10&71 FOR 14&19 THEN 19 FOR 22&126 – 14 – 22 – 40 – 126 – 133 – 164 – 195 – X
EDM-PHI-ANA – 10&71 FOR 14&19 THEN 19 FOR 23&116 – 14 – 23 – 40 – 116 – 133 – 164 – 195 – X
EDM-PHI – 10&71 FOR 14&19 – 14 – 19 – 40 – 133 – 164 – 195 – X – X
EDM – – 10 – 40 – 71 – 133 – 164 – 195 – X – X

my favourite is trading with PHI & MIN, turning 10 & 71 into 14, 24 & 63:
#14 – K’Andre Miller,
#24 – Ryan Merkley,
#40 – Jacob Lauko or Johnny Gruden,
#63 – Johnny Gruden or Adam Mascherin.

OR

The PHI-LAK trade is tempting as Merkley might be gone #22 to OTT (eventual replacement for Karlsson), although with the circuse show in OTT right now, a smart GM would stay away from anyone with possible attitude issues. That’s the last bit of PR they need right now, so maybe it’s safe to rule them out. Or maybe it really is a stupid organization so they might draft him. Who knows.

Maybe Merkley and Miller picks should be reversed. In my tracking of 20 scouting lists, Merkley’s high is #10, his avg is 25, Miller’s high is #19, his avg is 28. But I think I’d go safer with Miller at #14. If you lose out on Merkley from 15 to 22 or 24 so be it, there are still many good prospects.

PHI & LAK, turning 10, 40 & 71 into 14, 20, 51 & 82:
#14 – K’Andre Miller,
#20 – Ryan Merkley,
#51 – Jacob Lauko (avg #50) or Johnny Gruden (avg#68-73),
#63 – Adam Mascherin (avg #60-63),
#82 – 1 of goalie Olivier Rodrigue (avg#76), Johnny Gruden (criminally underrated #68-73), Kody Clark (Wendel’s son avg#76-77), Ty Emberson (RHD avg #85-90), or Jacob Ragnarsson (LHD with great numbers in ALLSVENSKAN avg #86-93)

#133 – I’d pick goal scoring Pavel Gogolev (avg#113 to 147)
#164 – I’d pick British Liam Kirk (avg #117 to 153) – Oilers had the only other Brit to almost play during Gretzky’s era, Tony Hand (he came to camp but was unprepared for it at the time). Considered best British hockey player of all time. Would be a cool story to give Kirk another chance to make it.
#195 – I’d pick C Tristen Nielsen (avg#180 to 201) – he’s very underrated. not sure why he’s so low. Most 5-on-5 Primary Pts / 60 in the WHL and he’s fast.

Side

Richard S.S.:
We never had this Taylor Hall on the Oilers, never ever. If the Oilers never trade him, we would still never have this Taylor Hall on the Oilers.I am not a Taylor Hall fanatic and I’m not changing now.With a Taylor Hall this good, there would be no reason to trade him.The talent was always there, why didn’t he use it as an Oiler?

Taylor Hall has always been Taylor Hall. Not sure what else there is to say about that, really.

Hall with the Oilers, people say: “Taylor Hall isn’t good enough”

Hall on a different team, being his usual self, people say: “Why couldn’t he have been like this on the Oilers?”

He has always been the same player, doubters or critics just don’t want to admit it.

*Que the misinterpreted comments about Hall not listening to the coaches in Edmonton*

Jaxon

Speaking of Nielsen – looked into scouting reports and discovered he cranked it up after coming back from injury. I had him at #14 on my projected 5-on-5 primary pts, but his stats form mid-december on, place him at #7, 4th in CHL after Svechnikov, Zadina and Noel/

Andrei Svechnikov 38.801
Joel Farabee 32.232
Oliver Wahlstrom 28.788
Jonathan Gruden 27.616
Filip Zadina 23.902
Serron Noel 23.696
Tristen Nielsen post injury mid DEC to END 22.544*****
Jake Wise 22.054
Aidan Dudas 21.630
Allan McShane 21.522
Curtis Douglas 21.058
Brady Tkachuk 20.483

Could be a great sleeper pick. Not sure he’ll last to #195. Somebody will pick him sooner. Maybe he should be our #133 or even #82. One ranking had him at #104.

leadfarmer

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– OK I haven’t posted this in awhile (and no credit for Benning now!)Quite a few had the right years, and close to AAVby the way.

– I’ll repost a few timesup to draft day:

– I’ve posted this for the last few years. It’s a diversion for the summer: we all get to be arm-chair GM’s. Contest the off-season elaborate version of Hunters. Winner gets a donation to LT.

What will the Oilers do (not what should they do, or what you would do!)?:

1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)? 2×1.9
4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
12) Who is the most expensive Edmonton off-season FA signing?: bonus if you get multiple right

Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1. Ty Smith. (Please baby Jesus let it be Wahlstrom). I would pick Boqvist but this team and WHL is just so predictable
2. 8 x 4.25
3. 2 x 1.9. I’m so awesome at this 🙂
4. 2 x 3
5. No
6. No
7. Drai
8. Strome
9. Drai
10. All are
11. 1. Something small for a bottom 6 player.
12. Vanek. 2 x 2.5. Things tend to come full circle

leadfarmer

Side,

Devils built around Halls speed. We did the opposite. He has always been a great player but the Devils system and players completely complement him. Defenders that can get him the puck with speed is the devils game with players that can keep up with him, we offered him whack a puck and dig the puck out yourself.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Lowetide: The scoring is shy, just is.

– Take this year’s 5×5 scoring, and last year’s PP, and we score as much as Washington this year

– Sure it’s cherry-picking stats, but it’s a good reference IMO

– But it’s your first stab as you say, and we don’t know the final roster…

Jaxon

I also don’t mind the idea of trading with Florida
#10 & #71 for #15 and #34.
#15 – Miller
#34 – Merkley (if he’s there, which I highly doubt) Lauko? Addison? Other?
#40 – Gruden? Other?

texmex

Edmonton Oilers

Verified account

@EdmontonOilers
2m2 minutes ago
More
The #Oilers have placed defenceman Eric Gryba on unconditional waivers for the purpose of buying out his contract.

Snowman

Jaxon,

I don’t think 40 is impossible. I do think that if you’re saying 40 is the minimum to stay on 97s line that’s crazy.

I agree with you. 30 is probably a fair number for a good season of 82 games with Connor. 40 goals should be the high watermark.

I also anticipate he doesn’t spend the whole season there.

Jaxon

Snowman:
Jaxon,

I don’t think 40 is impossible. I do think that if you’re saying 40 is the minimum to stay on 97s line that’s crazy.

I agree with you. 30 is probably a fair number for a good season of 82 games with Connor. 40 goals should be the high watermark.

I also anticipate he doesn’t spend the whole season there.

Ummm, I edited my previous reply above. Nevermind, nothing to see here, move along people.

JustWatt

Lowetide: We can project an increase in the power play and I do have the defense scoring more, but am not prepared to push Rattie into holding the No. 1 job all season. The scoring is shy, just is. Also, I don’t have 13F and 14F included so a few goals would be added but there’s work to do.

You are bang on as usual, LT. And it’s why I’m with you on the “the Edmonton Oilers need scoring wingers more than they need a 2RD” train. It’s mind-boggling that on a team with the best player in the universe and another top 10 even-strength points player that this team is going to be a playoff bubble team in the upcoming season unless they add some more firepower. The lesson of Rattie last season might be that Nuge-McDavid might be able to carry a one-dimensional player so long as that one dimension is scoring goals. If the RW can cash perfect passes then their line should be able to outscore any in the league. Ideally they should be pushing for 100 goals, something like 30-45-25. Maybe Yamamoto can fill this role. His price is right. Maybe Sam Gagner? He’d be cheap and we know he can score.

I really hope you are right about Lucic moving on/after July 1. Question for the group, can the Oilers pay the bonus and trade him both on July 1 or do they have to wait until the 2nd to pull that off? Could make a big difference in what kind of free agency they have. LT keeps saying July 2 so that’s likely the case but I am wondering what the rules are on that.

Bank Shot

RNH had a career high shooting percentage last season.

30 is probably out of reach for him.

I mean it’s possible that he hits that amount in a fluke/career year but I wouldn’t bet any money on it.

Jaxon

texmex:
Edmonton Oilers

Verified account

@EdmontonOilers2m2 minutes ago
More
The #Oilers have placed defenceman Eric Gryba on unconditional waivers for the purpose of buying out his contract.

Uhoh. They’re saving $600k this season at an extra cost of $300k next season. They’re making room for something and a press conference coming up. I’m afraid, very afraid.

JustWatt

jtblack,

Dang it! Should have finished reading the comments before I posted. Great minds and all that.

Bank Shot

Jaxon: Uhoh.They’re saving $600k this season at an extra cost of $300k next season. They’re making room for something and a press conference coming up. I’m afraid, very afraid.

Making room for Keegan Lowe to get more NHL games probably.

Woogie63

fifthcartel:
Taylor Hall winning the Hart is a big deal. Trading away the guy who goes on to be MVP two seasons later is bound to look bad. It’s a tough look when they succeed elsewhere, but this has to be embarrassing for the organization.

Obviously he’s not going to be fired after that Nicholson conference earlier, but this helps for sure imo. He’ll have to knock it out of the park (he won’t) or else he’s gone next season.

The question who does this look bad on?

The balance of the NJD and the old Oiler teams are not that different.
Taylor “got” last year – good for him!

The Taylor we had was a very good player – our best player. If he dragged the Oilers to the play-offs once he would still be an Oiler, or we would would have Seth Jones on our defence.

But watching and reading about a renewed commitment to his craft, leads me to believe the player significantly grew as a individual after the trade, that is not on the Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

FYI, as per the Lowdown, @Coopsie39 = OriginalPouzar