HERE COMES THE SUN (2018 DRAFT EDITION)

by Lowetide

We enter draft weekend 2018 with every possible outcome under the hockey rainbow in play. The first-round pick is available, trading up or down is possible and standing pat at No. 10 overall is the obvious move. I always prefer to make the pick, but the RHD itch is one this organization is hellbent on scratching. The pipeline may have to wait even longer to reach completion.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: Low budget free agents can deliver Oilers big bang
  • New Jonathan Willis: NHL awards showcased what might have been for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The maturation of Daryl Katz, or heading down a dangerous road?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 10 prospects in front of the 2018 draft.
  • Lowetide: tough and important week for Peter Chiarelli
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 Mock Draft.
  • Jonathan Willis: Ranking the 2018 draft based on statistical performance.
  • Lowetide: The WHL draft pool 2018: Where are the forwards?
  • Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
  • Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

THE FILTER

I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. I also use scouting reports from trusted sources and publications. I punish average to poor foot speed liberally. My list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top. Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a checking future (Allan McShane, Linus Nyman would have been higher on this list a few years ago). The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game. Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, although success over more than one season has terrific value. It is very rare for me to rank a defenseman No. 1 overall. Last time? Victor Hedman, 2009.

TOP 120, 2018

  1. LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). Impact player. Complete. Franchise. Ready.
  2. R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Major talent. 40 goals in 44 OHL games.
  3. L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Size, shooter, speed, skill.
  4. LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). Fast as lightning, smooth. Elite passer.
  5. LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). I wrote about him here. A fine talent. Prototype.
  6. RC Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL)Huge talent, emerging. Sensational release.
  7. L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA). Rugged power winger with two-way skills.
  8. RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). Big numbers, intelligent two-way D.
  9. RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite). Brilliant puck mover, chaos defense.
  10. RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL)Two-way defenseman who has a big shot.
  11. LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). Smart, very skilled and he’s 6.02, 190.
  12. L Joel Farabee, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Speedy winger with legit skill, chance machine.
  13. LC Barrett Hayton, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Great skater, great shot. Complete skills.
  14. LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan)Two-way center with skill, he’s an emerging player.
  15. RD Ryan Merkley, Guelph Storm (OHL)Ridiculous offensive package. One dimensional.
  16. LC Joe Veleno, Saint-John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)Good size and speed, creative center.
  17. RC Akil Thomas, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL)Undersized center with all of the tools, playmaker.
  18. R Dominik Bokk, Vajxo Lakers (SuperElite)Elusive skater and a fine stickhandler. First-person shooter.
  19. LC Filip Hallander, Timra (Allsvenskan). Big, fast forward is an excellent puck transporter.
  20. RD Bode Wilde, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL)Has size, skill, speed, plus can shoot the puck. Chaos.
  21. R Vitali Kravtsov, Traktor (KHL)Terrific skill, impressive KHL playoff.
  22. RD Calen Addison, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL)Creative player, a two-way defender.
  23. RC Rasmus Kupari, Karpat (Sm-Liiga). Skilled center, offense is the big selling point.
  24. L Grigori Denisenko, Yaroslavl (MHL). High-end skill and he’s a puck wizard. Great one-timer.
  25. LC Ryan McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Size, speed, skill. One of the oldest players in draft.
  26. R Serron Noel, Oshawa Generals (OHL)Big PF with improving speed, he’s an August 2000 birth date.
  27. R Jonatan Berggren, Skelleftea (SuperElite). Fearless two-way W, closed like a demon.
  28. L Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (SHL). He is a burner, probably a little shy offensively.
  29. LD Rasmus Sandin, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, undersized skill defenseman.
  30. RC Cam Hillis, Guelph Storm (OHL). He’s a burner, has skill, came a long way in one calendar year.
  31. LC Allan McShane, Oshawa Generals (OHL)A wide range of skills, McShane is an excellent passer.
  32. LD K’Andre Miller, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL)Big defender who can skate and has a big shot.
  33. W Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SuperElite). Quick release, great shot.
  34. R Jesse Ylonen, Espoo United (Mestis). Tall, thin skill winger who is both shooter and playmaker.
  35. LC Linus Nyman, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)Strong two-way C with impressive offense.
  36. RD Jett Woo, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). A fine two-way prospect. Good skater, smart.
  37. LD Alex Alexeyev, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Big man, calm feet, has skill. (6.03, 190).
  38. LC Phillipp Kurashev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). Intelligent two-way center.
  39. RC Ty Dellandrea, Flint Firebirds (OHL)Skill center plays a rugged style. Wild card.
  40. G Jakub Skarek, Jihlava (Czech)Huge goalie, quality resume.
  41. LC Alexander Khovanov, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL).Unreal skill, inconsistent.
  42. LC Nathan Dunkley, London Knights (OHL)Impressive young player with offensive ability.
  43. LD Jared McIssac, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Powerful skater, emerging offense.
  44. L Jake Wise, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). A burner with emerging offense, two-way potential.
  45. RD Sean Durzi, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Puck mover, could be fantastic value.
  46. L Cole Fonstadt, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Good hands, skilled.
  47. LC Liam Foudy, London Knights (OHL)Skill center. Speed merchant.
  48. L Martin Kaut, Pardubice (Czech). Big, strong, excellent skater. Offense unclear.
  49. LC Blake McLaughlin, Chicago Steel (USHL). Undersized skill player. Rising.
  50. LC Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Two-way C with some skill.
  51. LD Filip Kral, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart puck moving defender.
  52. L Adam Mascherin, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Re-entry, great skill, small.
  53. LC Jack McBain, Toronto Jr. Canadians (OJHL). Two-way C with size and skill.
  54. L Jakob Lauko, Chomutov (Czech). Skilled winger with good speed. Offense a mystery.
  55. LC Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants (WHL). A smart player in all areas of the ice.
  56. L Albin Eriksson, Skelleftea (SHL). Big winger, plus speed, promising offense.
  57. LC Matej Pekar, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). Playmaking Czech in USHL.
  58. LD Jonathan Tychonick, Penticton Vees (BCJHL). Puck mover, creative, chaos.
  59. L Alex Steeves, Dubuque (USHL). Smaller winger, speedy, physical.
  60. G Oliver Rodrigue, Drummondville (QMJHL). Best NA goalie by consensus.
  61. R Aidan Dudas, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Small, very skilled forward.
  62. RC Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Playmaking center, growing buzz.
  63. L Gabriel Fortier, Baie Comeau (QMJHL). Speedy winger with skill.
  64. RD Axel Andersson, Djurgardens (SuperElite)Speedy blue with skill.
  65. RC Kyle Topping, Kelowna Rockets (WHL)Impressive even-strength offense.
  66. LC Jack Drury, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL)Chris’ boy, smart and skilled. (USAToday).
  67. R Vladislav Kotkov, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Big, mobile offensive winger.
  68. LD Mattias Samuelsson, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). Shutdown skills, some offense.
  69. LC David Gustafsson, HV71 (SHL). Two-way C with emerging offense.
  70. RC Ivan Morozov, Mamonty Yugry (MHL). Solid two-way C, offense improving.
  71. G Lukas Dostal, Brno (Czech). Fabulous numbers over the last two seasons.
  72. L Sampo Ranta, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Skill winger with speed and a plus shot.
  73. L Kirill Marchenko, Mamonty Yugry (MHL). Size, skill, spiking.
  74. LD Nicolas Beaudin, Drummondville (QMJHL). Impressive puck mover, speed a concern.
  75. R Niklas Nordgren, HIFK (Sm-Liiga). Undersized, skilled, ripped up U18’s.
  76. R Riley Sutter, Everett Silvertips (WHL). A gritty winger with skill.
  77. L Justin Almeida, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)Good speed, two way ability, spiked offensively.
  78. L Anderson MacDonald, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)Big W is talented scorer.
  79. RC Ryan O’Reilly, Madison Capitals (USHL). Power forward with skill.
  80. L Cedric Desruisseaux, Drummondville (QMJHL). Small, skilled.
  81. R Kody Clark, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Rambunctious PF with some skill.
  82. L Johnny Gruden, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). Good speed, two way acumen.
  83. L Jack Randl, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Impressive scorer. Zero buzz.
  84. RD Mac Hollowell, SSM (OHL). Undersized puck mover can skate.
  85. R Pavel Gogolev, Peterborough (OHL). 30 goals in world’s best junior league.
  86. R Arttu Nevasaari, Karpat (Jr. Sm-Liiga). Top-end skill.
  87. RD Nils Lundkvist, Lulea (SHL). Speed and can pass plus transport the puck.
  88. RC Jay O’Brien, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). Skilled, undersized.
  89. LD Justin Bergeron, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL). M-A Bergeron 2.0.
  90. L Jan Jenik, Benatky (Cze-2). Solid two-way prospect, size, skill.
  91. R Yegor Sokolov, Cape Breton (QMJHL). Skilled power forward with good numbers.
  92. LC Lukas Wernblom, MODO (SuperElite). Small, skilled, needs better results.
  93. RD Jacob Bernard-Docker, Okotoks Oilers (AJHL). Great tools, unsure of offense.
  94. R Dmitri Zavgorodny, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL). Small, effective goal scorer.
  95. LD Scott Perunovich, Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA). Late developing, great passer.
  96. LD Adam McCormick, Cape Breton (QMJHL). Smart D, excellent skater.
  97. C-R Blade Jenkins, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Scorer with size, better on the wing.
  98. LD Danila Galenyuk, St. Petersburg (KHL). Strong two-way D, good skater.
  99. LC Jason Willms, Barrie Colts (OHL). Two-way C, 1999.
  100. RD Alec Regula, London Knights (OHL). Big two-way D with good mobility.
  101. LD Marc Del Gaizo, Muskegon (USHL). Impressive skill defender.
  102. L Oliver Okuliar, Dukla Trencin (Slovakia U20). Skilled, big U18’s.
  103. L Nikolai Kovalenko, Lokomotiv (MHL). Andrei’s boy. He’s a train.
  104. RC Tyler Madden, Tri-City Storm (USHL). Speedy center
  105. L Karel Plasek, Brno (Czech). Skill winger with a plus shot.
  106. LC Matthew Struthers, North Bay Battalion (OHL). Big two-way C.
  107. LC Riley Stotts, Calgary Hitmen (WHL). Found his offense with the Hitmen.
  108. L Gavin Hain, U.S.N.D.P (USHL). Intelligent player, terrific skater.
  109. L Ryan Chykowski, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Throwback W, good shot.
  110. L Paul Cotter, Lincoln Stars (USHL). Impressive athlete plus skills.
  111. RC Chase Wouters, Saskatoon Blades (WHL)Nice range of skills.
  112. L Hudson Elynuik, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart, skilled, huge. Re-entry.
  113. LC Curtis Douglas, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Giant center with skill.
  114. LD Adam Ginning, Linkoping (SHL). Big D, good speed, shutdown type.
  115. RD Ondrej Buchtela, Pirati Chomutov (Cze U20). Puck mover, good speed.
  116. RD Ty Emberson, U.S.N.D.P (USHL). Intelligent two-way player.
  117. G Olof Lindbom, Djurgardens (SuperElite)Good size, rebound control, strong U18’s.
  118. R Kirill Nizhnikov, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Volume shooter, could spike.
  119. RC Oscar Back, Farjestad (SHL). Strong start to U18 has him on the radar.
  120. L Michal Kvasnica, Ocelari Trinec (Czech). Smart two-way winger.

FINAL MOCK

  • First Round—No. 10 overall—LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). My list is mostly about numbers and Ty Smith’s numbers are exceptional. He plays in an excellent league, anticipates the play well, can cover or carry and is an excellent passer. His one weakness is his size but he’s made for this NHL. I talked to a scout who said “new age defender with a very high ceiling in today’s game.”  I don’t know if the Oilers will take him, or even own this pick when it is time to use it, but Ty Smith’s math is undeniable.
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall—LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan). I have him No. 14 but he should be available in the second round. Swedish Poster: The 6’2 center had a great year in allsvenskan, by no means a speedster but moves ok, needs to improve his first few steps but changes directions well and has ok top speed once going. Playmaking C but can finish as well, has that ability to just control shifts, more smart than overly creative, makes the right play but not necessarily the genius one. Great puckhandling. Good defensively as well, even when playing against men, pretty complete player tbh. Shot his team to the SHL with the deciding goal in the Allsvenskan playoffs. Will get picked in the first round, very good bet to become a good NHL C down the line but needs to get quicker and more dynamic to be a #1/2C imo. Looked faster at the end of the year than he did at the start so that’s a good sign.
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall—L Johnny Gruden, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). He’s skilled, works hard, aggressive, can check like a demon. Several posters have pushed him forward this spring (now summer) but the truth is Gruden is among six or seven USHL kids who the Oilers would be strong on at this number.
  • Fifth Round—No. 133 overallLC Riley Stotts, Calgary Hitmen (WHL). Terrific skater who found the range offensively after a trade to the Hitmen. Skilled player who is a little under the radar (similar to Kirill Maksimov a year ago).
  • Sixth Round—No. 164 overallR Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SuperElite). Swedish Poster: This quick winger plays for Frölunda, he has a really good wrister, has scored well in the U20 League, quick first few steps but his top speed is just ok to good, Pretty skilled with the puck and has that jack in the box ability of goalscorers to just show up in the right spot. Plays with intensity but I think a guy with his skill should be making plays more consistently. He’s also really frustrating at times, not very smart with the puck, has a tendency to just skate right into opponents and lose the puck, has flashes of creativity but there’s a little too much straight lines and junior decision making that won’t fly at a higher level. He got into two SHL games this season, according to his coach he could’ve gotten a few more games but they wanted him to stay in juniors to develop his offensive game instead of getting used as a grinder in the SHL which is probably smart, if devloped right there’s enough of a skillset to make him a player but he could also end up as nothing more than an SHL journey man and bottom sixer if he can’t work out the glitches in his game. I think Fagemo is a worthwhile pick in the back half of the draft since there is a good set of skills and also enough intensity and grit to play him in different roles if he can’t play higher in the line up.
  • Seventh Round—No. 195 overallL Paul Cotter, Lincoln Stars (USHL). I have been spending a lot of time staring at the USHL numbers this year, the league is at a tipping point now (or maybe earlier). The OHL and WHL are the strongest Canadian leagues, the USHL’s talent base this year is going to rival them at the draft and maybe five years down the road. Big forward, has a nice range of skills and he’s skilled. I have him at No. 110, he could go much higher. The USHL is going to run over this draft. Pretty sure.

TODAY

  • I think the pick at No. 10 may be dealt today. I’ll guess No. 10 and Jesse Puljujarvi and or a LHD for Colton Parayko.
  • I’ll be on with Guy Flaming for TSN 1260’s draft coverage beginning at 5:30 this afternoon.
  • Sam Cosentino has a sixth sense about the draft. His final mock is interesting.
  • I have given my opinion since January (here and at The Athletic): Peter Chiarelli’s best course of action is to keep his powder dry. Wait. A strong deal will come to the Oilers but it might not be this summer. Value needs to attach itself to players, giving the general manager some torque when dealing for needed talent. Edmonton isn’t here yet.
  • Peter Chiarelli’s best course of action could cost him his job. The temptation to make a trade today, using the No. 10 overall selection, must be enormous. If he can get Colton Parayko for a reasonable price (I don’t know what that might look like) I think Oilers fans will give the general manager his due. In a way, Chiarelli’s late June deals in the past three summers, along with the unrest in the fanbase, may have created a ‘trade wall’ that won’t allow PC to make another withering deal. That may sound a little farcical, but the theory does hold some water if you factor in the owner.
  • Daryl Katz benefits to the tune of $300,000 with the Eric Gryba buyout. Financially that’s not much money for an NHL owner to worry about and yet the buyout proceeded. There’s really no other benefit. This is beyond curious.
  • The Oilers and Rogers Place should be a money maker for a century but winning is a part of that scenario. I don’t know how many suites come due next summer and I don’t know how many season ticket holders walked this summer. The Gryba buyout is either an owner demanding a counterproductive move in a fit of pique, a manager who doesn’t know the cap implications, or something far more worrisome. These are the reasonable options in my opinion.

PROJECTED ROSTER

  • Nurse is a bridge, Yamamoto makes this team without a throw, Keegan Lowe or similar No. 7 blue and maybe Brad Malone is your No. 4 C.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are at the finish line, draft tonight! I’ll be part of the TSN1260 coverage beginning at 5:30. At 10 this morning on TSN1260, we’ll have a final look and update any trades. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Taylor Hall MVP, draft coverage as a television event.
  • Bryan Brant, Roster Point Hockey. When should young players begin promoting themselves to enlarge the footprint of their brand in the hockey industry?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Hall’s MVP, draft day.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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Andy Dufresne

rounding up to 800 comments

innercitysmytty

Chelios is a Dinosaur,

Agreed, staying the course now is the right approach to build a good team starting in 19/20. We should be strong on D moving forward starting in that year or 20/21 with Bouchard, Bear, Jones pushing and Klef, Benning and Nurse with more experience. Our weak links will be LW and G and overall depth, but LW could be helped substantially with the rest of this draft, plus Benson, Maksimov and others bubbling under. The top of the RW order should be established as JP and Yamo by then. As long as no more talent is bled, we will be pretty strong at the top of the order in all positions except LW and possibly G depending on Talbot re-signing and what Koskinnen and Skinner do in the next year.

neojanus

I think we made the correct pick with Bouchard.

Wahlstrom was really tempting for me, but we need a smart RHD that can stretch out our PP and force teams to play against it honestly for once. We also need a RHD that we can control at great dollars for a few years to come.

Klef, Nurse, Larsson, Benning, Bouchard are going to be a very balanced group in a few years both in terms of on-ice production and asset management moving forward. Add character guys like Sekera and Russell to the mix for now, and a great defensive assistant coach, and all of a sudden we might have some strength in this aspect of our lineup… something we have not seen since 2006.

How do you pass up on a kid that has already played 35 minutes a night regularly (as a captain) and has likely handled 40 on a team that had no balance?

I loved this pick and am glad Chiarelli trusted his scouts instead of mishandling out of fear for his job (which he still may not have this time next year)

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Next year is going to require some patience but I like how 2019-20 and beyond is shaping up.

D will be locked down. Centre position one of strength. Can Russel and Sekera contracts be turned into good middle-6 wingers? If Puljujärvi & Yamomoto take that step and Lucic either rebounds or is dealt, the decade of the 2020s looks good. Even if Lucic hangs around and is trash, that future team should compensate.

Marc Bergevin I consider to be a bad GM. But he did comment the other day on how his role is to make the Habs better now and into the future, whether or not he is the GM. It would be nice to hear PC say as much, but this summer can go a long way towards demonstrating that he has a long term vision, or is at least at gun point to ensure one. Last night was important.

Andy Dufresne

From “The Hockey News” yesterday:

DALLAS – There is one certainty in this draft: Buffalo taking Rasmus Dahlin first overall. And conventional wisdom will tell you that Dahlin is also the most NHL-ready defenseman in the class. It’s a near lock he will be playing solid minutes for the Sabres next season. But a lot of teams need help right away, so who is the next-best case on the blueline? In terms of NHL readiness, it’s Evan Bouchard.

The London Knights rearguard has an October 1999 birthday, meaning he is one of the older first-time eligible players in the draft class. But that means he is also one of the most experienced.

“Elite hockey sense, elite passer,” said one scout. “He can make any pass and he always seems to do it at the right place and the right time. Has the best chance after Andrei Svechnikov to go straight to the NHL next year (among OHLers).”

russ99

Wahlstrom was a pick for current need and Bouchard is a pick for current and later need. Let’s not forget Sekera and Russell could be dealt as early as next summer, but can stick as long as it takes for Bear, Jones and Bouchard to take their jobs.

Wahlstrom’s commit to Harvard is scary stuff. If he doesn’t make the Isles, he won’t get the opportunity to improve that prospects in the CHL get, and at some point to NCAA players an education matters as much as the NHL. Will he be the same player after two years at Harvard, after four?

Andy Dufresne

slopitch:
OriginalPouzar,

Has green been good enough to command term? He’s also older. I guess the idea is I want a stop gap solution and Bouchard to get another year in junior.

I think the Oilers will proceed with their plan to obtain an offensive minded defensmen this summer.

IMO The difference between today and 2 days ago is:
1) that they might not care as much about handedness now so players like Krug and Hanifin become bigger targets.
2) They might not be as agressive, meaning they might be in a position to strike a better deal.
3) Like you said, the option of a stop-gap becomes a legitimate option.

slopitch

OriginalPouzar,

Has green been good enough to command term? He’s also older. I guess the idea is I want a stop gap solution and Bouchard to get another year in junior.

jp

Wilde: So, my deal with 2nd tier and below leagues is not to precisely rank players by 3 significant digits of points per game, but to basically make a line that a player must raze down the league by x amount, minimum, at age 15/16, 16/17, 17/18 if applicable.

A lot of players go through prep school before moving on to college or tier 1 junior: Parise, Toews, Stafford, Hayes… I’m a fan of the notion that scoring talent reveals itself early, so I don’t mind comparing 15/16 year old seasons across from players who from there took different eventual paths to the NHL.

The one I think got Philly: Division rival Boston’s Ryan Donato.

Selected at #56, Donato is one of my sleeper picks for Calder consideration next year.

Not a lot of 2nd round guys any team would swap Donato for that year.

Thatcher Demko’s looking alright, Brandon Montour’s good, Dvorak the same.

Donato was one of the most potent goalscorers in the NCAA this year, 26G in 29GP, following up with 9 pts in 12 NHL GP clocking 2.1 points per 60.

Here’s those cut-off lines I was talking about:

15/16 year old season: over 1.0 pts/GP

16/17 year old season: over 2.0 pts/GP

17/18 year old season: over 2.5 pts/GP

Here’s those two:

Donato

age – pts / / gp

15/16 – 36 / / 26 – 1.38

16/17 – 60 / / 28 – 2.14

17/18 – 78 / / 30 – 2.60

O’Brien

age – pts / / gp

15/16 – 34 / / 29 – 1.17

16/17 – 65 / / 30 – 2.17

17/18 – 80 / / 30 – 2.67

Cool, thanks for that.

He didn’t stand out from his own teammates enough (in my very brief look) to make his value clear to me. Your lines in the sand certainly make sense, and yeah, nice comp for Donato.

Rondo

Forward picks for today.

Kirill Marchenko
Albin Eriksson
Serron Noel
Akil Thomas
Jacob Olofsson
Jake Wise
Ryan McLeod
Jonatan Berggren

Professor Q

OriginalPouzar:
Bah – we don’t need Whalstrom – we have our elite shooter in Maksimov – yes, fantasy, I know, but he has a fantastic shot – here is hoping he keeps developing because, if his overall game can make it to the NHL, his shot will score goals.

And just think of that name being called during goal announcements!

“Maksimov Effort there, boys! We have a goal!”

Donye West

I’m in the minority I realize, but I’d have picked Wahlstrom. BPA? It chafes me that it had to be the Islanders to get him. Corey Pronman had him ranked #6, Bouchard 17th.

Bouchard in my mind is a Dan Hamhuis. Useful player.

Picks for today:

Bode Wilde! I know we need a forward, but still, BPA it.
Calen Addison – nice NHLE
Jacob Olofsson – plays both special teams
Ryan McLeod – 6’2 point-a-game player
Jonatan Berggren
Jesse Ylonen
Jared McIsaac
Cam Hillis
Niklas Nordgren
Jake Wise

ArmchairGM

Add Fonstadt and Dunkley to the list of acceptable Oilers picks today.

OriginalPouzar

Bah – we don’t need Whalstrom – we have our elite shooter in Maksimov – yes, fantasy, I know, but he has a fantastic shot – here is hoping he keeps developing because, if his overall game can make it to the NHL, his shot will score goals.

ArmchairGM

Jaxon: The only issue with Noel is that he’s a RW, so he’s up against Puljujarvi and Yamamoto (and Rattie).

And Maksimov, and Safin.

Professor Q

leadfarmer:
While i dont mind the pick, i think we will ultimately regret passing on Wahlstrom.

You can’t pick all the players.

Even with that, I don’t necessarily agree with you. What is there really to regret? Go get your RHD. Get a shooter in trade, FA, 2nd Round, next year’s draft, etc. They very well could be better (and more of a chance of getting them than another top RHD).

OriginalPouzar

slopitch:
If I’m the oilers my plan is a 1year deal for mike green. It’s tempting to let Bouchard play next year but the extra year is the better long term play. 4f and 1d pp would also work. Play for 2020 and bouchard fits that window.

I like the pick. RHD has been a need for so long and most lists had Bouchard > Whalstrom

1) I believe Green is looking for term

2) who do you move out to open up the cap space – we have maybe a couple of million to spend on a UFA (and that’s if Nurse signs a reasonable bridge around $3.5M).

digger50

who:
Who was the guy sitting to Chia’s right at the draft table? Was that Keith Gretzky? Could have sworn it was Al Bundy!

Ha. So true

He looks like the shoe salesman

Ryan

leadfarmer:
While i dont mind the pick, i think we will ultimately regret passing on Wahlstrom.

Yup.

Bank Shot

Bling:
Didn’t see him threatening anyone with his speed. I do wonder about the true upside of a guy who doesn’t skate at an elite level. That being said, a good transition pass always beats a rush up ice.

Is a lack of skating any worse than the true upside of a guy that is 5’10” or less?

Not too many amazing two way defenceman in the 5’10” or less category.

Ellis who is one of the better short defenders also had skating concerns.

theDjdj

Bling:
The highlights package of Bouchard is interesting.

Very cerebral player with great puck skills. Amazing passer. Good shot as well.

Didn’t see him threatening anyone with his speed. I do wonder about the true upside of a guy who doesn’t skate at an elite level. That being said, a good transition pass always beats a rush up ice.

He doesn’t look like a guy who has anything to prove in the OHL.

I think he makes it in training camp and gets acquainted with Trent the D whisperer.

Jason Bourne made an interesting comment that the league will over correct towards speed and some of these zippy kids are going to get crunched. While I think Bouchard has some work to do on skating, I don’t think a lack of elite speed in a defenseman places a ceiling as long as they have “good” speed, which Bouchard has. His combination of size and strength is a winning combination imo.

JimmyV1965

Can Bouchard play in Europe next year or the KHL? Seems like a waste to go back to junior, but it’s unlikely he’s ready for the NHL.

leadfarmer

While i dont mind the pick, i think we will ultimately regret passing on Wahlstrom.

Munny

Gerta Rauss:
I like Bode Wilde and Calen Addison but I really doubt they pick another RH D at 40

I don’t think there’s any way that Serron Noel will go untaken by the Oil if he’s on the board. But like Wilde and Addison almost certainly gone by 40.

Jaxon,

This is a pretty compelling argument for Lauko. And he’s likely to be there at 40. 9 points in 42 games against men with likely 4th line ice time. Kid turned 18 in March.

I wouldn’t be unhappy if they select him.

That there Czech goalie might tempt the Oil tho’.

And if Nyman is available…

Wilde

Jacob Lauko didn’t smash the U16, U18, and U20 Czech leagues enough for me to believe there’s substantial offense being hidden by his men’s league deployment this year

Munny

Andy Dufresne,

Hockey porn. Titillating as all fuck.

This boychild has far more offense in him than Darnell tho’. Not the same raw athlete, but brainy and coordinated.

Munny

Pescador: Jakub Lauko
im an easy sell.
anybody have some snake oil or time shares to sell?

WelI, I do have these beans,,,

Andy Dufresne

“Let’s start with the positives for Bouchard, and how he got his gaudy statistics. Bouchard has a cannon of a slap shot, but is adept at getting his shot on net in multiple ways. He’s able to shorten the backswing on his slap shot to get it away more quickly, fake a shot and open up a lane for his wrist shot, or quickly release an accurate snap shot, depending on the situation.

Bouchard clearly loves to shoot the puck, and led all OHL defencemen with 4.43 shots per game. That was good for sixth in the OHL, with Canucks prospect Jonah Gadjovich one of the five forwards ahead of him.

More dangerous than his shot, however, is his passing ability. He might be the best passer in the draft, whether making a stretch pass to break out of the zone or setting up a teammate for a scoring chance in the offensive zone. It’s not just that Bouchard has great vision, but that he is calm and poised with the puck, choosing the right moment to find a teammate with a pass instead of rushing the play.

The combination of Bouchard’s shot and passing made him an excellent power play quarterback for the Knights. At the blue line, Bouchard looks like an NHL defenceman, using fake shots and quick shifts of weight to open up passing and shooting lanes.

Bouchard is also fond of joining the rush and has good speed in transition. He uses a good chance of pace and plus stickhandling to beat defenders and create odd-man rush situations. The Knights were clearly dependent on Bouchard, as he devoured minutes, frequently playing more than half the game. He played in all situations.”

Wilde

jp: What are the O’Brien comps showing you?

Just having a quick look at recent Thayer seasons. Ty Amonte scored 30-17-53-70 there in his draft year (2016) but went undrafted (and he’s the son of an NHLer). O’Brien went 30-43-37-80 this year for comparison. Amonte followed that up with a 58-17-20-37 BCHL season and 36-6-3-9 this year in college.

Not the same player obviously, but I’m having a hard time envisioning a positive looking comps from USHS…

So, my deal with 2nd tier and below leagues is not to precisely rank players by 3 significant digits of points per game, but to basically make a line that a player must raze down the league by x amount, minimum, at age 15/16, 16/17, 17/18 if applicable.

A lot of players go through prep school before moving on to college or tier 1 junior: Parise, Toews, Stafford, Hayes… I’m a fan of the notion that scoring talent reveals itself early, so I don’t mind comparing 15/16 year old seasons across from players who from there took different eventual paths to the NHL.

The one I think got Philly: Division rival Boston’s Ryan Donato.

Selected at #56, Donato is one of my sleeper picks for Calder consideration next year.

Not a lot of 2nd round guys any team would swap Donato for that year.

Thatcher Demko’s looking alright, Brandon Montour’s good, Dvorak the same.

Donato was one of the most potent goalscorers in the NCAA this year, 26G in 29GP, following up with 9 pts in 12 NHL GP clocking 2.1 points per 60.

Here’s those cut-off lines I was talking about:

15/16 year old season: over 1.0 pts/GP

16/17 year old season: over 2.0 pts/GP

17/18 year old season: over 2.5 pts/GP

Here’s those two:

Donato

age – pts / / gp

15/16 – 36 / / 26 – 1.38

16/17 – 60 / / 28 – 2.14

17/18 – 78 / / 30 – 2.60

O’Brien

age – pts / / gp

15/16 – 34 / / 29 – 1.17

16/17 – 65 / / 30 – 2.17

17/18 – 80 / / 30 – 2.67

Pescador

Jaxon: The only issue with Noel is that he’s a RW, so he’s up against Puljujarvi and Yamamoto (and Rattie). A C/LW would suit the Oilers’ needs better.
so maybe this is my list ofC/LW to hope for:

23 Ryan MacLeod
24 Serron Noel
35 Jake Wise
50 Jakub Lauko
63 Adam Mascherin
73 Johnny Gruden
147 Pavel Gogolev
201 Tristen Nielsen

EDIT: Added Noel back in. Potential and project-status may work timing wise to be very useful in a couple years.

Jakub Lauko
im an easy sell.
anybody have some snake oil or time shares to sell?

Pescador

Bling:
The highlights package of Bouchard is interesting.

Very cerebral player with great puck skills. Amazing passer. Good shot as well.

Didn’t see him threatening anyone with his speed. I do wonder about the true upside of a guy who doesn’t skate at an elite level. That being said, a good transition pass always beats a rush up ice.

He doesn’t look like a guy who has anything to prove in the OHL.

I think he makes it in training camp and gets acquainted with Trent the D whisperer.

hopefully Trent has power skating coaching certificates

€√¥£€^$

For those who don’t know, Canuck’s Army does an outstanding analysis of the top draft prospects:

https://canucksarmy.com/2018/05/04/2018-nhl-draft-spring-rankings/

€√¥£€^$

Bling,

Food for thought due to his massive TOI totals, discussion regarding his hockey IQ & his exceptional passing ability. Because he was a work horse and THE backbone of London’s D Corps he likely picked his spots, utiliized his passing more than his skating to a. conserve energy and b. to be more defensively responsible.

jp

Wilde:
Jaxon,

In terms of getting who they got with what they had, I’d go DET, NYI, NYR, SJS, and the more I do comps for O’Brien, PHI.

What are the O’Brien comps showing you?

Just having a quick look at recent Thayer seasons. Ty Amonte scored 30-17-53-70 there in his draft year (2016) but went undrafted (and he’s the son of an NHLer). O’Brien went 30-43-37-80 this year for comparison. Amonte followed that up with a 58-17-20-37 BCHL season and 36-6-3-9 this year in college.

Not the same player obviously, but I’m having a hard time envisioning a positive looking comps from USHS…

Bling

The highlights package of Bouchard is interesting.

Very cerebral player with great puck skills. Amazing passer. Good shot as well.

Didn’t see him threatening anyone with his speed. I do wonder about the true upside of a guy who doesn’t skate at an elite level. That being said, a good transition pass always beats a rush up ice.

He doesn’t look like a guy who has anything to prove in the OHL.

I think he makes it in training camp and gets acquainted with Trent the D whisperer.

Jaxon

Wilde: I think it’s okay to have Noel on the right side of the system because he’s a project player, though

And if he pans out as an above average 3rd line RW, that’s a great problem for the Oilers to have. Definitely not a solely skill-line projected player with dat size

Another good point. I’d be hella happy with Noel. I think he’s one of the most underrated prospects of this draft.

Jaxon

Wilde:
Jaxon,

In terms of getting who they got with what they had, I’d go DET, NYI, NYR, SJS, and the more I do comps for O’Brien, PHI.

Interesting, I don’t know much about O’Brien. They got a lot in Merkley, but they hope it’s all the good stuff, and not the bad, so the jury will be out on that one for a while. I like the pick. Not sure I would have done it with only one pick in the 1st round.

The other crazy thing about DET, NYR, NYI is that DET drafts again at #33 and #36 (4 in top 36), NYR draft again at #39 (4 in top 39), NYI drafts at#41, & #43 (4 in top 43). MTL drafts at #35, #38, #56 and #62 in the 2nd round and #66 in the 3rd, so Kotkaniemi and 5 more in the top 66 (6 in top 66)!!! Of course, BUF gets to go again at #2, which will be . a great player to add to Dahlin. And the Canucks get to add a player at #37 to Hughes. Tomorrow’s draft will be fun too.

RonnieB

Wilde: Kekelainen passed on the consensus Finn for Pierre-Luc Dubois, and it looks like you gotta deal picks to get picks in this draft. It’d be something like moving up from #71.

Maybe an early 4th for the Isles 2019 3rd ?

Wilde

Jaxon: The only issue with Noel is that he’s a RW, so he’s up against Puljujarvi and Yamamoto (and Rattie). A C/LW would suit the Oilers’ needs better.
so maybe this is my list ofC/LW to hope for:

23 Ryan MacLeod
35 Jake Wise
50 Jakub Lauko
63 Adam Mascherin
73 Johnny Gruden
147 Pavel Gogolev
201 Tristen Nielsen

I think it’s okay to have Noel on the right side of the system because he’s a project player, though

And if he pans out as an above average 3rd line RW, that’s a great problem for the Oilers to have. Definitely not a solely skill-line projected player with dat size

Jaxon

Pescador: Thank you Jaxon!
For this & for all of your fine work on breaking down the draft.
Serron Noel

The only issue with Noel is that he’s a RW, so he’s up against Puljujarvi and Yamamoto (and Rattie). A C/LW would suit the Oilers’ needs better.
so maybe this is my list of C/LW to hope for:

23 Ryan MacLeod
24 Serron Noel
35 Jake Wise
50 Jakub Lauko
63 Adam Mascherin
73 Johnny Gruden
147 Pavel Gogolev
201 Tristen Nielsen

EDIT: Added Noel back in. Potential and project-status may work timing wise to be very useful in a couple years.

Wilde

Bouchard’s CHL tracking numbers are pretty fuckin’ disgusting.

Wilde

Jaxon,

In terms of getting who they got with what they had, I’d go DET, NYI, NYR, SJS, and the more I do comps for O’Brien, PHI.

slopitch

If I’m the oilers my plan is a 1year deal for mike green. It’s tempting to let Bouchard play next year but the extra year is the better long term play. 4f and 1d pp would also work. Play for 2020 and bouchard fits that window.

I like the pick. RHD has been a need for so long and most lists had Bouchard > Whalstrom

ArmchairGM

Probably been commented on already, but Grubauer + Orpik to Colorado for a 2018 2nd round pick.

who

Who was the guy sitting to Chia’s right at the draft table? Was that Keith Gretzky? Could have sworn it was Al Bundy!

Jaxon

BUF, CAR, NYR, DET, NYI, VAN, EDM, OTT had the best 1st rounds in that order in my opinion. Although I could be swayed on the order. The Rangers picked up 3 sleepers in Kravtsov (scored at an amazing pace in the KHL), Miller (all the numbers love him and he’s huge and fast and defensive and offensive… I have a prospect crush on this guy as many of you have noticed) and Lundkvist (I read a scout thought he was better than Boqvist in a tourny). If they’re right about them, they may have a pretty good haul. The Islanders had two amazing players fall to them and simply took the safest BPA in Wahlstrom and Dobson. The Red Wings grabbed what was considered the 3rd best player in the draft in most people’s minds and followed that with grabbing an exceptionally talented 2-way C with speed, great hands, great vision and a solid 2-way game. Those could be a pair for the next decade. The Canucks got what many considered the 2nd best D in the draft. Edmonton got the best Canadian JR D in the draft and a right shot to fit their needs! The Sens grabbed a solid, hard-working, no BS player who is one of the closest to NHL-ready. I think he’s just what they need with all the turmoil surrounding them right now. Safe and dependable.

Jaxon

Wilde: Kekelainen passed on the consensus Finn for Pierre-Luc Dubois, and it looks like you gotta deal picks to get picks in this draft. It’d be something like moving up from #71.

Good point. I’m grasping at straws. He’s probably acutely aware of showing any perceived bias for Finnish players and may avoid them. #133 and Caleb Jones for #49?

Pescador

Jaxon: Noel would also qualify as a goal scorer with speed to burn. He’s fast, he’s 6’5″, he had the 4th highest Goals/60 when adjusted for age and league. I had Svechnikov prjected at 265-on-5 goals with median Top 6 TOI, Wahlstrom at 20, Zadina at 17, Noel at 16, Gruden (who I’m also a big fan of) at 15 and Pavel Gogolev at 15. Gogolev is way down on the rankings as there is not much else to his game.

I’d be happy with any of Noel, Lauko or Gruden at #40. Jake Wise would also be an okay pick.

It will be interesting to see where Tristen Nielsen winds up. He had a poor start to the year and then lit it up in the last half. his Primary Pts/60 when adjusted (age/league). I projected him at 22.5 Primary Pts 5-on-5, and 13 goals. 7th among N American players:

Andrei Svechnikov38.801
Joel Farabee32.232
Oliver Wahlstrom28.788
Jonathan Gruden27.616*****
Filip Zadina23.902
Serron Noel23.696*****
Tristen Nielsen post injury mid DEC to END22.544*****
Jake Wise22.054*****

But the highest any ranking had Nielsen was 104, lowest was 318, average was 180 and I have him 201st on the list when ranked by average. He’ll be a steal somewhere. From Ft St John, BC, plays for Calgary Hitmen. LHC, 5’10”, 181lbs.

Thank you Jaxon!
For this & for all of your fine work on breaking down the draft.
Serron Noel

Wilde

frjohnk: Looking at other Dmen picked in around his spot or later in the 1st round who have become impact over the last decade, 3-5 years is not out of the ordinary.

If he becomes impact earlier, then bonus.

From Dellow’s piece “When do defencemen make it?”, 50% of the current top 4 defencemen in the NHL that came from the CHL played 41+ NHL games at or before age 20.