HERE COMES THE SUN (2018 DRAFT EDITION)

We enter draft weekend 2018 with every possible outcome under the hockey rainbow in play. The first-round pick is available, trading up or down is possible and standing pat at No. 10 overall is the obvious move. I always prefer to make the pick, but the RHD itch is one this organization is hellbent on scratching. The pipeline may have to wait even longer to reach completion.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: Low budget free agents can deliver Oilers big bang
  • New Jonathan Willis: NHL awards showcased what might have been for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The maturation of Daryl Katz, or heading down a dangerous road?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 10 prospects in front of the 2018 draft.
  • Lowetide: tough and important week for Peter Chiarelli
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 Mock Draft.
  • Jonathan Willis: Ranking the 2018 draft based on statistical performance.
  • Lowetide: The WHL draft pool 2018: Where are the forwards?
  • Lowetide: Can the Oilers repeat the 2017 draft haul?
  • Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

THE FILTER

I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. I also use scouting reports from trusted sources and publications. I punish average to poor foot speed liberally. My list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top. Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a checking future (Allan McShane, Linus Nyman would have been higher on this list a few years ago). The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game. Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, although success over more than one season has terrific value. It is very rare for me to rank a defenseman No. 1 overall. Last time? Victor Hedman, 2009.

TOP 120, 2018

  1. LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). Impact player. Complete. Franchise. Ready.
  2. R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Major talent. 40 goals in 44 OHL games.
  3. L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Size, shooter, speed, skill.
  4. LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). Fast as lightning, smooth. Elite passer.
  5. LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). I wrote about him here. A fine talent. Prototype.
  6. RC Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL)Huge talent, emerging. Sensational release.
  7. L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA). Rugged power winger with two-way skills.
  8. RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). Big numbers, intelligent two-way D.
  9. RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite). Brilliant puck mover, chaos defense.
  10. RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL)Two-way defenseman who has a big shot.
  11. LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). Smart, very skilled and he’s 6.02, 190.
  12. L Joel Farabee, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Speedy winger with legit skill, chance machine.
  13. LC Barrett Hayton, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Great skater, great shot. Complete skills.
  14. LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan)Two-way center with skill, he’s an emerging player.
  15. RD Ryan Merkley, Guelph Storm (OHL)Ridiculous offensive package. One dimensional.
  16. LC Joe Veleno, Saint-John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)Good size and speed, creative center.
  17. RC Akil Thomas, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL)Undersized center with all of the tools, playmaker.
  18. R Dominik Bokk, Vajxo Lakers (SuperElite)Elusive skater and a fine stickhandler. First-person shooter.
  19. LC Filip Hallander, Timra (Allsvenskan). Big, fast forward is an excellent puck transporter.
  20. RD Bode Wilde, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL)Has size, skill, speed, plus can shoot the puck. Chaos.
  21. R Vitali Kravtsov, Traktor (KHL)Terrific skill, impressive KHL playoff.
  22. RD Calen Addison, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL)Creative player, a two-way defender.
  23. RC Rasmus Kupari, Karpat (Sm-Liiga). Skilled center, offense is the big selling point.
  24. L Grigori Denisenko, Yaroslavl (MHL). High-end skill and he’s a puck wizard. Great one-timer.
  25. LC Ryan McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Size, speed, skill. One of the oldest players in draft.
  26. R Serron Noel, Oshawa Generals (OHL)Big PF with improving speed, he’s an August 2000 birth date.
  27. R Jonatan Berggren, Skelleftea (SuperElite). Fearless two-way W, closed like a demon.
  28. L Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (SHL). He is a burner, probably a little shy offensively.
  29. LD Rasmus Sandin, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, undersized skill defenseman.
  30. RC Cam Hillis, Guelph Storm (OHL). He’s a burner, has skill, came a long way in one calendar year.
  31. LC Allan McShane, Oshawa Generals (OHL)A wide range of skills, McShane is an excellent passer.
  32. LD K’Andre Miller, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL)Big defender who can skate and has a big shot.
  33. W Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SuperElite). Quick release, great shot.
  34. R Jesse Ylonen, Espoo United (Mestis). Tall, thin skill winger who is both shooter and playmaker.
  35. LC Linus Nyman, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)Strong two-way C with impressive offense.
  36. RD Jett Woo, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). A fine two-way prospect. Good skater, smart.
  37. LD Alex Alexeyev, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Big man, calm feet, has skill. (6.03, 190).
  38. LC Phillipp Kurashev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). Intelligent two-way center.
  39. RC Ty Dellandrea, Flint Firebirds (OHL)Skill center plays a rugged style. Wild card.
  40. G Jakub Skarek, Jihlava (Czech)Huge goalie, quality resume.
  41. LC Alexander Khovanov, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL).Unreal skill, inconsistent.
  42. LC Nathan Dunkley, London Knights (OHL)Impressive young player with offensive ability.
  43. LD Jared McIssac, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Powerful skater, emerging offense.
  44. L Jake Wise, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). A burner with emerging offense, two-way potential.
  45. RD Sean Durzi, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Puck mover, could be fantastic value.
  46. L Cole Fonstadt, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Good hands, skilled.
  47. LC Liam Foudy, London Knights (OHL)Skill center. Speed merchant.
  48. L Martin Kaut, Pardubice (Czech). Big, strong, excellent skater. Offense unclear.
  49. LC Blake McLaughlin, Chicago Steel (USHL). Undersized skill player. Rising.
  50. LC Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Two-way C with some skill.
  51. LD Filip Kral, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart puck moving defender.
  52. L Adam Mascherin, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Re-entry, great skill, small.
  53. LC Jack McBain, Toronto Jr. Canadians (OJHL). Two-way C with size and skill.
  54. L Jakob Lauko, Chomutov (Czech). Skilled winger with good speed. Offense a mystery.
  55. LC Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants (WHL). A smart player in all areas of the ice.
  56. L Albin Eriksson, Skelleftea (SHL). Big winger, plus speed, promising offense.
  57. LC Matej Pekar, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). Playmaking Czech in USHL.
  58. LD Jonathan Tychonick, Penticton Vees (BCJHL). Puck mover, creative, chaos.
  59. L Alex Steeves, Dubuque (USHL). Smaller winger, speedy, physical.
  60. G Oliver Rodrigue, Drummondville (QMJHL). Best NA goalie by consensus.
  61. R Aidan Dudas, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Small, very skilled forward.
  62. RC Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Playmaking center, growing buzz.
  63. L Gabriel Fortier, Baie Comeau (QMJHL). Speedy winger with skill.
  64. RD Axel Andersson, Djurgardens (SuperElite)Speedy blue with skill.
  65. RC Kyle Topping, Kelowna Rockets (WHL)Impressive even-strength offense.
  66. LC Jack Drury, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL)Chris’ boy, smart and skilled. (USAToday).
  67. R Vladislav Kotkov, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Big, mobile offensive winger.
  68. LD Mattias Samuelsson, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). Shutdown skills, some offense.
  69. LC David Gustafsson, HV71 (SHL). Two-way C with emerging offense.
  70. RC Ivan Morozov, Mamonty Yugry (MHL). Solid two-way C, offense improving.
  71. G Lukas Dostal, Brno (Czech). Fabulous numbers over the last two seasons.
  72. L Sampo Ranta, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Skill winger with speed and a plus shot.
  73. L Kirill Marchenko, Mamonty Yugry (MHL). Size, skill, spiking.
  74. LD Nicolas Beaudin, Drummondville (QMJHL). Impressive puck mover, speed a concern.
  75. R Niklas Nordgren, HIFK (Sm-Liiga). Undersized, skilled, ripped up U18’s.
  76. R Riley Sutter, Everett Silvertips (WHL). A gritty winger with skill.
  77. L Justin Almeida, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)Good speed, two way ability, spiked offensively.
  78. L Anderson MacDonald, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)Big W is talented scorer.
  79. RC Ryan O’Reilly, Madison Capitals (USHL). Power forward with skill.
  80. L Cedric Desruisseaux, Drummondville (QMJHL). Small, skilled.
  81. R Kody Clark, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Rambunctious PF with some skill.
  82. L Johnny Gruden, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). Good speed, two way acumen.
  83. L Jack Randl, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Impressive scorer. Zero buzz.
  84. RD Mac Hollowell, SSM (OHL). Undersized puck mover can skate.
  85. R Pavel Gogolev, Peterborough (OHL). 30 goals in world’s best junior league.
  86. R Arttu Nevasaari, Karpat (Jr. Sm-Liiga). Top-end skill.
  87. RD Nils Lundkvist, Lulea (SHL). Speed and can pass plus transport the puck.
  88. RC Jay O’Brien, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). Skilled, undersized.
  89. LD Justin Bergeron, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL). M-A Bergeron 2.0.
  90. L Jan Jenik, Benatky (Cze-2). Solid two-way prospect, size, skill.
  91. R Yegor Sokolov, Cape Breton (QMJHL). Skilled power forward with good numbers.
  92. LC Lukas Wernblom, MODO (SuperElite). Small, skilled, needs better results.
  93. RD Jacob Bernard-Docker, Okotoks Oilers (AJHL). Great tools, unsure of offense.
  94. R Dmitri Zavgorodny, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL). Small, effective goal scorer.
  95. LD Scott Perunovich, Minnesota-Duluth (NCAA). Late developing, great passer.
  96. LD Adam McCormick, Cape Breton (QMJHL). Smart D, excellent skater.
  97. C-R Blade Jenkins, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Scorer with size, better on the wing.
  98. LD Danila Galenyuk, St. Petersburg (KHL). Strong two-way D, good skater.
  99. LC Jason Willms, Barrie Colts (OHL). Two-way C, 1999.
  100. RD Alec Regula, London Knights (OHL). Big two-way D with good mobility.
  101. LD Marc Del Gaizo, Muskegon (USHL). Impressive skill defender.
  102. L Oliver Okuliar, Dukla Trencin (Slovakia U20). Skilled, big U18’s.
  103. L Nikolai Kovalenko, Lokomotiv (MHL). Andrei’s boy. He’s a train.
  104. RC Tyler Madden, Tri-City Storm (USHL). Speedy center
  105. L Karel Plasek, Brno (Czech). Skill winger with a plus shot.
  106. LC Matthew Struthers, North Bay Battalion (OHL). Big two-way C.
  107. LC Riley Stotts, Calgary Hitmen (WHL). Found his offense with the Hitmen.
  108. L Gavin Hain, U.S.N.D.P (USHL). Intelligent player, terrific skater.
  109. L Ryan Chykowski, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Throwback W, good shot.
  110. L Paul Cotter, Lincoln Stars (USHL). Impressive athlete plus skills.
  111. RC Chase Wouters, Saskatoon Blades (WHL)Nice range of skills.
  112. L Hudson Elynuik, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart, skilled, huge. Re-entry.
  113. LC Curtis Douglas, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Giant center with skill.
  114. LD Adam Ginning, Linkoping (SHL). Big D, good speed, shutdown type.
  115. RD Ondrej Buchtela, Pirati Chomutov (Cze U20). Puck mover, good speed.
  116. RD Ty Emberson, U.S.N.D.P (USHL). Intelligent two-way player.
  117. G Olof Lindbom, Djurgardens (SuperElite)Good size, rebound control, strong U18’s.
  118. R Kirill Nizhnikov, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Volume shooter, could spike.
  119. RC Oscar Back, Farjestad (SHL). Strong start to U18 has him on the radar.
  120. L Michal Kvasnica, Ocelari Trinec (Czech). Smart two-way winger.

FINAL MOCK

  • First Round—No. 10 overall—LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). My list is mostly about numbers and Ty Smith’s numbers are exceptional. He plays in an excellent league, anticipates the play well, can cover or carry and is an excellent passer. His one weakness is his size but he’s made for this NHL. I talked to a scout who said “new age defender with a very high ceiling in today’s game.”  I don’t know if the Oilers will take him, or even own this pick when it is time to use it, but Ty Smith’s math is undeniable.
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall—LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan). I have him No. 14 but he should be available in the second round. Swedish Poster: The 6’2 center had a great year in allsvenskan, by no means a speedster but moves ok, needs to improve his first few steps but changes directions well and has ok top speed once going. Playmaking C but can finish as well, has that ability to just control shifts, more smart than overly creative, makes the right play but not necessarily the genius one. Great puckhandling. Good defensively as well, even when playing against men, pretty complete player tbh. Shot his team to the SHL with the deciding goal in the Allsvenskan playoffs. Will get picked in the first round, very good bet to become a good NHL C down the line but needs to get quicker and more dynamic to be a #1/2C imo. Looked faster at the end of the year than he did at the start so that’s a good sign.
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall—L Johnny Gruden, U.S.N.D.T.P. (USHL). He’s skilled, works hard, aggressive, can check like a demon. Several posters have pushed him forward this spring (now summer) but the truth is Gruden is among six or seven USHL kids who the Oilers would be strong on at this number.
  • Fifth Round—No. 133 overallLC Riley Stotts, Calgary Hitmen (WHL). Terrific skater who found the range offensively after a trade to the Hitmen. Skilled player who is a little under the radar (similar to Kirill Maksimov a year ago).
  • Sixth Round—No. 164 overallR Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SuperElite). Swedish Poster: This quick winger plays for Frölunda, he has a really good wrister, has scored well in the U20 League, quick first few steps but his top speed is just ok to good, Pretty skilled with the puck and has that jack in the box ability of goalscorers to just show up in the right spot. Plays with intensity but I think a guy with his skill should be making plays more consistently. He’s also really frustrating at times, not very smart with the puck, has a tendency to just skate right into opponents and lose the puck, has flashes of creativity but there’s a little too much straight lines and junior decision making that won’t fly at a higher level. He got into two SHL games this season, according to his coach he could’ve gotten a few more games but they wanted him to stay in juniors to develop his offensive game instead of getting used as a grinder in the SHL which is probably smart, if devloped right there’s enough of a skillset to make him a player but he could also end up as nothing more than an SHL journey man and bottom sixer if he can’t work out the glitches in his game. I think Fagemo is a worthwhile pick in the back half of the draft since there is a good set of skills and also enough intensity and grit to play him in different roles if he can’t play higher in the line up.
  • Seventh Round—No. 195 overallL Paul Cotter, Lincoln Stars (USHL). I have been spending a lot of time staring at the USHL numbers this year, the league is at a tipping point now (or maybe earlier). The OHL and WHL are the strongest Canadian leagues, the USHL’s talent base this year is going to rival them at the draft and maybe five years down the road. Big forward, has a nice range of skills and he’s skilled. I have him at No. 110, he could go much higher. The USHL is going to run over this draft. Pretty sure.

TODAY

  • I think the pick at No. 10 may be dealt today. I’ll guess No. 10 and Jesse Puljujarvi and or a LHD for Colton Parayko.
  • I’ll be on with Guy Flaming for TSN 1260’s draft coverage beginning at 5:30 this afternoon.
  • Sam Cosentino has a sixth sense about the draft. His final mock is interesting.
  • I have given my opinion since January (here and at The Athletic): Peter Chiarelli’s best course of action is to keep his powder dry. Wait. A strong deal will come to the Oilers but it might not be this summer. Value needs to attach itself to players, giving the general manager some torque when dealing for needed talent. Edmonton isn’t here yet.
  • Peter Chiarelli’s best course of action could cost him his job. The temptation to make a trade today, using the No. 10 overall selection, must be enormous. If he can get Colton Parayko for a reasonable price (I don’t know what that might look like) I think Oilers fans will give the general manager his due. In a way, Chiarelli’s late June deals in the past three summers, along with the unrest in the fanbase, may have created a ‘trade wall’ that won’t allow PC to make another withering deal. That may sound a little farcical, but the theory does hold some water if you factor in the owner.
  • Daryl Katz benefits to the tune of $300,000 with the Eric Gryba buyout. Financially that’s not much money for an NHL owner to worry about and yet the buyout proceeded. There’s really no other benefit. This is beyond curious.
  • The Oilers and Rogers Place should be a money maker for a century but winning is a part of that scenario. I don’t know how many suites come due next summer and I don’t know how many season ticket holders walked this summer. The Gryba buyout is either an owner demanding a counterproductive move in a fit of pique, a manager who doesn’t know the cap implications, or something far more worrisome. These are the reasonable options in my opinion.

PROJECTED ROSTER

  • Nurse is a bridge, Yamamoto makes this team without a throw, Keegan Lowe or similar No. 7 blue and maybe Brad Malone is your No. 4 C.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are at the finish line, draft tonight! I’ll be part of the TSN1260 coverage beginning at 5:30. At 10 this morning on TSN1260, we’ll have a final look and update any trades. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Taylor Hall MVP, draft coverage as a television event.
  • Bryan Brant, Roster Point Hockey. When should young players begin promoting themselves to enlarge the footprint of their brand in the hockey industry?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Hall’s MVP, draft day.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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804 Responses to "HERE COMES THE SUN (2018 DRAFT EDITION)"

Newer Comments »
  1. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    The 10th for Hamilton! /s

  2. dustrock says:

    Every time I see the “Here Comes the Sun” post, I get a really good, excited feeling and then a really scared feeling and then a really excited feeling.

    Basically, teenage me trying to figure out the bra strap.

    Hope everyone has a great draft.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Finally the day is here.

    The Oilers hold the 10th pick and the 40th pick as their two top picks.

    From accounts, the Oilers will be choosing among the likes of Adam Boquist, Ty Smith, Barrett Hayton with their 1st pick. There is a chance that someone like Oliver Whlastrom or Even Bouchard drops to them.

    Chia has stated that, while there are some nice d-men at the top of the draft, he will be taking the best player available.

    Chia has talked about not making huge moves this off-season but was pretty clear yesterday that the 10th overall pick is in play for an offensive minded d-man (preferably right shot but that is not a requirement).

    Chia also did mention the possibly about trading up to grab a certain player.

    Should a super-interesting evening (and weekend)

    Go Oilers!

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m all about standing pat and making the pick at 10 (and 40, well, all 6 picks), however, the 10 and Puljijarvi for Parayko is something I think the organization would need to jump on.

    Parayko is the dream acquisition – the skillset, the age, the contract, etc.

    I would HATE to lose Puljijarvi, hate it, he’s going to break out, however, this is Colton Parayko.

    Of course, we’d need to move a left shot D to make cap room – if it is Klefbom, perhaps we can get a 1st rounder back?

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of course, I see no reason with STL would trade Parayko aside from a massive haul.

    From accounts, teams have called STL about Parayko and his availability, the accounts are not about Parayko actually being available or shopped.

  6. T0ML says:

    I maintain the Gryba Buyout has the benefit of allowing our young D in the AHL to marinate w/o having a Gryba taking ice time, which lets be honest would more than likely happen with a new coach trying to get a record goign off the bat.

    Go oilers! If we can get Paryako for less than Drai i will be exstaic. If its Paryako + for Drai ill be upset , but understanding … maybe

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Keegan Lowe or similar No. 7 blue and maybe Brad Malone is your No. 4 C.”

    Neither are acceptable options, in my opinion.

    Keegan Lowe was signed, in my opinion, to play the role he played last year – veteran AHL mentor. If he was signed as a legit option for the opening night roster then Chiarelli has failed. I would MUCH rather have Gryba as the #7.

    Brad Malone isn’t an NHL player – he is sub-replacement level. In his 7 games last year, he was not only ineffective but he hurt the team with bad minor penalties.

  8. defmn says:

    Nothing important to add. Just wanted to thank you for all the work you do leading up to this day. It is much appreciated.

  9. Yeti says:

    I’d love it if your mock draft came to pass for the second and sixth rounds, LT. It would be like you and SwedishPoster made your own little Oiler babies…

  10. leadfarmer says:

    Please baby Jesus let it be Wahlstrom. Wooooot!!!

    Having d play their offside seems to short curcuit coaches. Even Brodie who is clearly better on the right (turning) is forced to play his off side.

    I know Chia is saying stay the course but im sure the river boat gambler in him is trying to make deals

  11. Spartacus says:

    LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). Smart, very skilled and he’s 6.02, 190.

    I hope the Oilers don’t choose Kotkaniemi, because they are really poor at Assat management.

    I really feel like there’s an Assat joke in there somewhere.

  12. leadfarmer says:

    Which goalie do you like LT?. Pretty certain we draft a goalie somewhere cause we always do

  13. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’ll bet Wahlstrom drops to #10, EDM will trade down to NYI at 12th and get their left shot WHL Dman. NYI will take the falling forward, who will win the calder in 2021.

  14. SkatinginSand says:

    T0ML,

    This could have easily been accomplished by loaning Gryba to another organization, as they did with Fayne last year.

    Of all of Chiarelli’s strange moves, this one has got me completely baffled.

  15. leadfarmer says:

    Please Montreal draft Hayton. I need some entertainment

  16. LoDog says:

    I’d love to have Parayko but can anyone enlighten me on why he would be worth so much?

    Two years older than nurse hit the scene hot and now…

  17. leadfarmer says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I think you mean we trade it for Ho-sang with our second rounder who we dont protect in the seattle expansion draft

  18. leadfarmer says:

    LoDog,

    Cause hes really good and good rhd cost a boatload right now because of low supply and high demand

  19. LadiesloveSmid says:

    leadfarmer,

    I at least think Ho-Sang fills a need!

    Trying to think of the equivalent trade to 2015’s GR trade. 10th overall to Boston for Zboril because Keith Gretzky drafted him maybe? Will never forget my brother and I jumping for joy when Barzal dropped to 16

  20. Caribbeerman says:

    I would love Parayko but the cost will be steep.

    If there was a way to get Hamilton straight up for #10 that might be better.

    I am thinking hold onto the pick and in 2 years time you’re looking at a +++ player who you control at a reasonable cost for years to come to play alongside the CMD cluster. Not sure the GM can play the waiting game but I hope he does regardless.

    Hoping for some excitement tonight but not if that means bleeding talent (won’t be happy losing Puljujarvi, Yakamoto or Kleffbom). Good luck Peter Chiarelli – I’ll be rooting for you to play your best hand tonight!!

  21. flea says:

    I watched some of the NBA draft last night. What a different experience than the NHL. Generally it’s worse IMO, the teams aren’t even there. It’s just the commissioner announcing the picks which the team management lock in from their own offices. Weird.

    But there was one interesting wrinkle. NBA teams can’t trade draft picks so they trade the players after they draft them. I wonder why NHL teams are adverse to this strategy. Basically take the best guy, see who others draft and then wheel and deal. I get that picks will almost always be the preferred currency but i think this strategy could also be useful post draft.

  22. N64 says:

    dustrock: Every time I see the “Here Comes the Sun” post, I get a really good, excited feeling and then a really scared feeling and then a really excited feeling.

    Here Comes the Fun!

  23. TO10801 says:

    If you land Parayko, the best option may be to buy out Kris Russell. The buyout only has one bad year where the cap hit is $3.6M, and by then (assuming Seattle expansion happens) it would seem likely that the cap will go significantly upwards.

    Problem is that I do not think there is any way in hell PC buys him out.

  24. Dominoiler says:

    I don’t get the gryba angst.. couldn’t this be a hockey move?.. any value in freeing up a spot on the 50 man list while also giving gryba a chance to make it with another org?..

  25. dustrock says:

    LT Gryba was very well liked. Team just doing him a solid and letting him go UFA for July 1st?

  26. LoDog says:

    leadfarmer,

    Well he better be CFP if he costs what some are throwing around.

  27. Woogie63 says:

    My bet of Oiler’s defense next year is;

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Sekera
    Russell- Benning
    Honka

    if healthy, that is more than good enough to make the play-off

  28. Yeti says:

    dustrock:
    LT Gryba was very well liked. Team just doing him a solid and letting him go UFA for July 1st?

    If management decided to voluntarily lower their already tight cap room by $300,000 a year for the next two years to do someone ‘a solid’ then they should be sacked.

  29. doritogrande says:

    Hoping for Boqvist, will also be satisfied with Dobson/Bouchard if they fall. Keep the pick.

    I guess you’ll have to update your Buyout numbers to include Gryba now LT.

    Will be switching between the draft and the Bombers game on the way to the lake tonight, god bless AM Radio.

  30. N64 says:

    Dominoiler:
    I don’t get the gryba angst.. couldn’t this be a hockey move?.. any value in freeing up a spot on the 50 man list while also giving gryba a chance to make it with another org?..

    It’s not the move by itself. It’s the pattern. Pou/Gryba were bad cap moves but good Katz Kash moves. Not a good trend. LT struck the right tone yesterday. Like he said it’s a move to puzzle over in more than one section of the newsroom.

  31. N64 says:

    Yeti: If management decided to voluntarily lower their already tight cap room by $300,000 a year for the next two years to do someone ‘a solid’ then they should be sacked.

    Unless the move did Katz a solid too.

  32. M00se1978 says:

    I see the Gryba buyout as an organization trying to create good will in the player community by giving Gryba a chance to find work elsewhere, and not just burying him.

    Sometimes we as fans forget the assets are real people with real lives and everything can’t filter down to a number, lives and feelings do come into it.

    Because number wise it makes no sense. But if that 300k buys a little goodwill it’s worth it.

  33. leadfarmer says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Yeah me too. Chia almost ruined Mcdavid draft for me. I was so excited until “we have a trade to announce”. Then I got drunk and took my anger out on LTs blog
    At least I got to draft Barzal towards the end of the second round in last years draft in my keeper league

  34. John Chambers says:

    $300K out of an $80M cap is 0.375%

    It’s really not a big deal.

  35. Yeti says:

    N64: Unless the move did Katz a solid too.

    Doing Katz ‘a solid’ is to use every means to ice a strongly competitive team that can compete for the Cup. This is not that.

  36. bendelson says:

    Yeti: If management decided to voluntarily lower their already tight cap room by $300,000 a year for the next two years to do someone ‘a solid’ then they should be sacked.

    The result of an organizational inferiority complex, I would suggest… whether justified or not.

  37. Truth says:

    Dominoiler:
    I don’t get the gryba angst.. couldn’t this be a hockey move?.. any value in freeing up a spot on the 50 man list while also giving gryba a chance to make it with another org?..

    A hockey move should have the best interest of your own hockey team as the top priority. The Gryba buyout is undoubtedly at the expense of the best interest of the Oilers’ ability to ice the best team possible. No other possible way to spin it.

  38. dustrock says:

    Yeti: If management decided to voluntarily lower their already tight cap room by $300,000 a year for the next two years to do someone ‘a solid’ then they should be sacked.

    Welcome to pro sports.

    It’s not a business.

  39. Dino says:

    What time is the draft in mountain time?

  40. Yeti says:

    John Chambers:
    $300K out of an $80M cap is 0.375%

    It’s really not a big deal.

    The Oilers have $11m left to sign five players. Even $300,000 is meaningful in that context. It’s not the drop in the ocean you are pretending.

  41. Yeti says:

    dustrock: Welcome to pro sports.

    It’s not a business.

    That applies to some teams more than others…

  42. leadfarmer says:

    Wonder what kind of offers Chia is getting today? You know Lou is probably calling him every 20 minutes

  43. Truth says:

    M00se1978:
    I see the Gryba buyout as an organization trying to create good will in the player community by giving Gryba a chance to find work elsewhere, and not just burying him.

    Sometimes we as fans forget the assets are real people with real lives and everything can’t filter down to a number, lives and feelings do come into it.

    Because number wise it makes no sense. But if that 300k buys a little goodwill it’s worth it.

    As I recall Gryba wasn’t wanting to sign unless he got the second year. I have no issue with him being buried in the minors if he can’t live up to his end of the deal and be an NHL player for those two seasons he insisted on getting in his contract. Put the onus on the player to perform, not the GM to ensure his players feelings don’t get hurt. It should be noted that it was a poor contract from the get go, but Chiarelli.

  44. N64 says:

    Yeti: Doing Katz ‘a solid’ is to use every means to ice a strongly competitive team that can compete for the Cup. This is not that.

    And that’s the issue. Not for the first time cash flow is the solid of choice.

  45. N64 says:

    Yeti: The Oilers have $11m left to sign five players. Even $300,000 is meaningful in that context. It’s not the drop in the ocean you are pretending.

    ~ Rounding error for the Oil. They have standing instruction to overpay by at least $300K on every contract. They just got carried away ~

  46. Side says:

    M00se1978:
    I see the Gryba buyout as an organization trying to create good will in the player community by giving Gryba a chance to find work elsewhere, and not just burying him.

    Sometimes we as fans forget the assets are real people with real lives and everything can’t filter down to a number, lives and feelings do come into it.

    Because number wise it makes no sense. But if that 300k buys a little goodwill it’s worth it.

    I can see this as well, and won’t be crying over 300k gone when it’s not even my money, but.. we’re also on a forum where some people think intangibles don’t matter or impact the game at all and players are viewed as non-opinionated hockey automatons.

  47. Hot Eire says:

    Spartacus,

    Ass hat

  48. npanciroli says:

    Rishaug saying we are aggressively shopping the pick.

    HERE WE GO

  49. StixMalone says:

    Dino:
    What time is the draft in mountain time?

    Shows 5pm on Sportsnet

  50. leadfarmer says:

    npanciroli,

    There’s no way that Chia is capable of sitting still

  51. Alpine says:

    FFS Chia, we don’t need a defenseman that badly.

  52. bendelson says:

    bendelson: The result of an organizational inferiority complex, I would suggest… whether justified or not.

    You meld ‘delusions of grandeur’ into said ‘inferiority complex’, and you have one seriously confused organization. Ladies and gentlemen, YOUR Edmonton Oilers!

  53. Cahoon says:

    Dino,

    Nhl site says round 1 starts at 530. So there’s probably a half hour of nonsense before.

  54. npanciroli says:

    I mean if he can use the 10th and Sekera or Russel into a good RHD this would be great.

    I don’t see Chia as capable.

  55. ChiliChunk says:

    Yeti: If management decided to voluntarily lower their already tight cap room by $300,000 a year for the next two years to do someone ‘a solid’ then they should be sacked.

    N64: Unless the move did Katz a solid too.

    In that case those responsible for sacking the people who have just been sacked should be sacked.

  56. anjinsan says:

    LT, you’re the only one on God’s white sheet of ice saying Ty Smith grades out 5th. Bless you and keep you … away from the selection card :-).

    Wishful thinking…”The Oilers have made a trade…Chiarelli + $$ for Cheveldayoff.” Poor, poor Jets, look out below.

    In other news, following the announcement, riots break out in Winnipeg.

  57. N64 says:

    ChiliChunk:
    In that case those responsible for sacking the people who have just been sacked should be sacked.

    ~ Before or after Melnyk? ~

  58. Yeti says:

    Side: we’re also on a forum where some people think intangibles don’t matter or impact the game at all and players are viewed as non-opinionated hockey automatons.

    I don’t believe either of those things. Intangibles matter and hockey players are human beings with feelings and emotions. But I’m not sure what the relevance of that is to the Gryba discussion. Gryba being paid $900,000 to play in Bakersfield is not ‘bad will’ or plunging the player into eternal torment. For a player of Gryba’s level, it’s the nature of the job.

  59. Wilde says:

    Update on Puljujarvi:

    – He’s apparently training hard already, pushing numbers on bench(lol) and squat

    – Enjoying being able to train without injury unlike last couple summers

    – playing with Karpat once a week

    – good to be closer to home, but is working hard on his English because he felt he couldn’t be a good teammate and friend because of his poor English this year 🙁

    – all of this translation credited to Twitter user @kulta64

    Now, I’ve been linking the latest published passing project data intermittently, and I took a look at Puljujarvi’s:

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/ryan.stimson#!/vizhome/PlayerPassing/ComparisonDashboard

    Highlights:

    – 81st percentile expected primary points per 60

    – 81st percentile shot assists from across the slot or behind the net

    – 72nd percentile expected assists per 60

    – 81st percentile expected goals per 60

    – 79th percentile one-timer shots per 60

    Lowlights:

    – 28th percentile involvement in the shots that occur when he’s on the ice

    – 37th percentile shot assists per 60

    My takeaways here is that we have a fantastically talented young individual with good character and it’s real fuckin’ sad the way he’s been treated thus far.

    If we don’t trade him, though, we’ll forget about it when he’s a monster two-way force for a decade.

    These metrics kind of fly in the face of Jesse’s shot quality problem, I think the problem is finishing as one of the youngest NHLers. He’s getting to the spots, he’s getting the shot off, but he’s not finding twine. It’s part confidence, it’s part literally being 20. We saw this with Yamamoto. If he cashed on his dangerous chances at a reasonable rate he would have had 5 goals in his 9 games.

    When a player is old and has this problem, they just don’t have it anymore. Like how Cammaleri did a lot of things right, but it just didn’t go in the net anymore.

    When a player is young and has this problem, they just don’t have it YET.

    But they will, both of them… I’m confident.

    Please, for the love of god, keep these two guys and keep the 10th overall. A team with 97 on it shouldn’t /have/ elite prospects, but because of the injuries in 2015-16, and the size-based dismissal of a top 10 talent in 2017, and the man comin’ around in 2018, here we are: we have a mulligan.

    It won’t, in all likelihood, be another chance at a McDavid+Barzal+Hall team, but it is something… unless you rip the seeds from the soil once again.

    Get it right Pete, get it right Daryl, get it right Craig, and Godspeed, Keith.

  60. Gret99zky says:

    Anyone putting the Gryba buyout under the prudent column in the ledger is doing it wrong.

  61. defmn says:

    dustrock,

    That would be my guess. Showing some class to a guy who has been a good soldier. Getting worked up about a $300,000 cap hit is over reaction imo. These are people not things. Treating people like they are objects gets you a reputation that costs a lot more in a closed loop like the NHL where everybody knows everybody and everything.

    And, yes, I know we are tight to the cap. The $300,000 doesn’t solve anything or make anything more difficult. We had a bean counting management/owner once upon a time. Don’t remember things working any better.

  62. ArmchairGM says:

    T0ML:
    I maintain the Gryba Buyout has the benefit of allowing our young D in the AHL to marinate w/o having a Gryba taking ice time, which lets be honest would more than likely happen with a new coach trying to get a record goign off the bat.

    Again, who was Gryba blocking? Only Bear is a legit prospect, and Gryba wasn’t blocking him anyhow (call-up, 1PP, etc.).

    Most of our good D prospects are in different leagues.

  63. PokeCheck says:

    Anyone who spends $85 million on a Californian estate isn’t giving an F about $300K. And if Gryba wanted out to pursue greener pastures, couldn’t both sides have agreed to a contract termination?

  64. John Chambers says:

    Yeti: The Oilers have $11m left to sign five players. Even $300,000 is meaningful in that context. It’s not the drop in the ocean you are pretending.

    If they’re able to get rid of Lucic, then it’s moot.

    If they’re not … well, then it may be material. I’m hoping Peter can pull a rabbit out of a hat over the next two weeks, but I’m queasy at the thought.

  65. N64 says:

    John Chambers: If they’re able to get rid of Lucic, then it’s moot.

    ~ With the #10 no problem. Remember we got Larsson for free. Looch was a playoff winner upgrade on Hall ~

    The bigger issue isn’t the 300K. It’s the pattern. Cash over cap hit never ends well.

  66. Yeti says:

    defmn: And, yes, I know we are tight to the cap. The $300,000 doesn’t solve anything or make anything more difficult.

    Of course it make things more difficult: it’s $300,000 less dollars to play with in very tight circumstances when we need to hire several free agents to fill out the roster.

  67. Durag says:

    John Chambers,

    I’m almost 100% sure that a sizable contract is going to be moved out. Here’s hoping it’s Russell, Sekera or Lucic and not Klefbom or Nuge.

  68. Jordan says:

    I don’t want someone in Oilers Management to ask Peter “Are you sure you want to do that?”

    I want someone in Oilers Management who will disable Peter’s phone and tell him that all the other GMs are on vacation until July 15.

    I don’t trust him to build this team.

    His efforts to speed up the timeline and get this team’s Stanley window closer have skewered the overall ceiling of this team, By bleeding value through trades and overpaying UFAs on the down slope of their careers, the team is in a worse position now than they were 3 years ago when he was hired.

    I’m feeling very sad and dissapointed to hear Ryan’s news. I hope it’s innacurate.

    Draft. Develop. Win.

    Trade. Overpay. Lose.

    I feel dirty to be saying this, but… watching Peter GM this team makes me wish for the Lowe and MacT.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    One of the things I think too many sports franchises are guilty of is chasing whatever the latest trend is in terms of system play and roster construction.

    Right now, extreme depth at F is all the rage and teams like Vegas and Pitt have us believing that having a serviceable D core is good enough to put you in the Cup conversation.

    But ultimately what typically puts a team over the top is having a dominant advantage in one area and robust depth in the other phases.

    For that reason, I would be very bullish on a Parayko acquisition at the right price. In a season or two, a D trio of Larsson, Parayko and Nurse could be the 21st century equivalent of Stevens, Niedermayer, and Daneyko. Partner that with a solid G and an elite top line of Drai, McDavid, and JP and that’s a team capable of winning multiple Cups imo.

    This is a question Chiarelli really needs to be asking himself. Can I feasibly fill all the holes in the roster? And if I can’t, which one most moves the needle? There’s so many holes in the Bottom 9 Fs. Maybe it is quicker to build a lock down D and win with defence first?

  70. Gret99zky says:

    From the article:

    “Peter Chiarelli’s best course of action could cost him his job. The temptation to make a trade today, using the No. 10 overall selection, must be enormous. If he can get Colton Parayko for a reasonable price (I don’t know what that might look like) I think Oilers fans will give the general manager his due.”

    Barring a miraculous CFP 2005 type of trade, any move Chia makes in this moment of desperation is dangerous for the organization.

    It is more likely the 10 overall will be traded for damaged goods or pennies on the dollar and the fans will give the general manager his due.

  71. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Dominoiler:
    I don’t get the gryba angst.. couldn’t this be a hockey move?.. any value in freeing up a spot on the 50 man list while also giving gryba a chance to make it with another org?..

    At the moment, they are at 39 contracts, they don`t need the roster spot. If they needed it that badly, they would have known when they re-signed Patrick Russell for example, and could have just not signed him or another fringe guy.

    If they wanted to do Gryba a solid, they could have retained salary in a trade, or loaned him out to another team. Neither would impact the cap next year.

  72. leadfarmer says:

    LT could you please provide a webcam to Woodguys house when Brodie becomes an Oiler tonight

  73. defmn says:

    Yeti,

    Insignificant. They can go over the cap until the first game and that is 3 months away. Pretty sure there will be 22 or 23 players on the roster for the first game.

  74. Younger Oil says:

    Agreed with what is being said, if the #10 pick is to be moved for a defender, one of Russell, Sekera, and Lucic needs to be moved with it, or else it means Klefbom will likely have to be moved.

    That Russell contract is looking worse and worse, we have a monumentally stupid GM.

  75. Yeti says:

    defmn:
    Yeti,

    Insignificant. They can go over the cap until the first game and that is 3 months away. Pretty sure there will be 22 or 23 players on the roster for the first game.

    It’s not insignificant if they spend to the cap. Ironically, it could be the difference between being able to afford a semi-decent bottom order player or having to hire someone like Eric Gryba…

  76. leadfarmer says:

    The response to Gryba’s buyout is truly baffling. We’ve been talking for years about non prospects taking up prospects development time in the AHL. Gryba was not going to be an option for the NHL team or the AHL team. I’m sure other teams were just lining up to have him take up prospect development time for their farm teams. They did the respectable thing and let him pursue another path instead of making him play in the ECHL. We know that players do not like to be treated like assets. The only questionable part of this entire scenario is the 2 year contract given to him by Chia

  77. Side says:

    Yeti: I don’t believe either of those things. Intangibles matter and hockey players are human beings with feelings and emotions. But I’m not sure what the relevance of that is to the Gryba discussion. Gryba being paid $900,000 to play in Bakersfield is not ‘bad will’ or plunging the player into eternal torment. For a player of Gryba’s level, it’s the nature of the job.

    I don’t think anyone said it’s “bad will” to keep Gryba in the minors. But I think if you were a player, you would prefer to be bought out in hopes that an NHL team will pick you up and actually use you. Instead of sitting on the bench in the AHL playing limited minutes. Pretty sure professional hockey players want any opportunity they can to play in the best league in the world.

  78. Buckys move says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: At the moment, they are at 39 contracts, they don`t need the roster spot. If they needed it that badly, they would have known when they re-signed Patrick Russell for example, and could have just not signed him or another fringe guy.

    If they wanted to do Gryba a solid, they could have retained salary in a trade, or loaned him out to another team. Neither would impact the cap next year.

    Making room for a pair of 5 for 1 deals.

  79. Gret99zky says:

    leadfarmer:
    The only questionable part of this entire scenario is the 2 year contract given to him by Chia

    So we can agree that Chiarelli is the problem.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    Gret99zky: So we can agree that Chiarelli is the problem.

    Absolutely. He should have been removed this offseason. I can only imagine what a desperate Chia is going to do

  81. Truth says:

    Side: I don’t think anyone said it’s “bad will” to keep Gryba in the minors. But I think if you were a player, you would prefer to be bought out in hopes that an NHL team will pick you up and actually use you. Instead of sitting on the bench in the AHL playing limited minutes. Pretty sure professional hockey players want any opportunity they can to play in the best league in the world.

    You’d also think that Gryba would realize getting paid $900,000 / year while not being good enough to crack the Oilers roster is not such a bad thing. If he can’t make Edmonton’s roster where is he going to play? He’s looking at a 2-way contract to sign elsewhere and he’s going to make peanuts when training camp is over and he finds himself in the AHL again. That’s if anyone is willing to sign him at all.

    The whole “give him a chance” argument is total BS. There are hundreds of players out there not in the NHL, equally good (bad), but younger and would kill for that contract.

  82. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Brad Malone isn’t an NHL player – he is sub-replacement level. In his 7 games last year, he was not only ineffective but he hurt the team with bad minor penalties.

    Bullshit.

    51:25 TOI
    59.26 CF%
    58.62 FF%
    60.98 SF%
    62.86 SCF%
    75.00 HDCF%
    41.38 OZ faceoff %
    0 GF
    0 GA

    Most common linemates:
    Zack Kassian 33:27
    Jussi Jokinen 22:36
    Mark Letestu 14:55

    All these guys have a ~40 CF% without Malone. With Malone, they posted 55.10, 66.67 and 61.90 respectively. That’s neither “ineffective” nor “sub-replacement level” – those are pretty impressive stats, especially considering the linemates.

  83. leadfarmer says:

    Truth,

    Not BS at all. It is a very legitimate request. Plus like we have been saying for years. Development league is for development. Gryba is just taking time away from that. I’m sure Gryba would rather do something else than go to ECHL

  84. Oilin4 says:

    N64: ~ With the #10 no problem. Remember we got Larsson for free. Looch was a playoff winner upgrade on Hall ~

    The bigger issue isn’t the 300K. It’s the pattern. Cash over cap hit never ends well.

    Exactly. Saying it’s only about the 300K is being disingenuous or deliberately daft. It’s about the collective impact of this 0.3M, the 0.5M extra going to Caggiula over what should go to his roster spot, the 0.5-1M extra going to Kassian, the 1-2M extra going to Drai, and so forth. Even ignoring the trades, the Lucic signing, the Russel signing, this is just poor cap management. It’s not just poor, it’s inexplicable. Added up, it may collectively be doing as much damage as any one of the poor trades or signings.

  85. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM: Bullshit.

    51:25 TOI
    59.26 CF%
    58.62 FF%
    60.98 SF%
    62.86 SCF%
    75.00 HDCF%
    41.38 OZ faceoff %
    0 GF
    0 GA

    Most common linemates:
    Zack Kassian33:27
    Jussi Jokinen22:36
    Mark Letestu14:55

    All these guys have a ~40 CF% without Malone. With Malone, they posted 55.10, 66.67 and 61.90 respectively. That’s neither “ineffective” nor “sub-replacement level” – those are pretty impressive stats, especially considering the linemates.

    I’d first like to say that I agree with your premise and was championing Malone all year to fill the 4th line in order to reunite Strome and Khaira, but

    All of Malone’s TOI came from the start of the year where the Oilers were controlling play very well as a top 3 raw corsi team and getting hard PDO’d due to luck, awful shooting talent, and poor shot-quality systems play.

    They were also chasing leads a hilarious amount and this gamed their raw totals as well

  86. Pink Socks says:

    Regarding Gryba:

    1) Technically it saves Katz $900k. $300k saved in salary, and $300k X2 worth of cap space that can’t be spent this season and next.
    2) He could have been loaned to another team
    3) He and his agent could have been given permission to seek a trade
    4) His entire contract can be buried in the AHL
    5) I don’t buy the “give the young D time” in the AHL, Gryba playing 3rd pairing minutes still has plenty of ice time for the prospects

  87. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM,

    If you are drawing any type of conclusions from those numbers you are doing it all wrong. 200 min+ thats enough data to make a conclusion. 100 min-200 min not really enough but fun to take a peak.
    <50 min. Absolutely meaningless

  88. Oilin4 says:

    Jason Gregor’s tweet on starting the season:

    #Oilers tough start to season…
    Start in Sweden Oct 6th v. NJ
    @ Bos Oct 11
    @ NYR Oct 13 (matinee)
    @ WPG Oct 16
    Oilers will be on road for 21 days with only 8 points up for grabs.
    v. Bos Oct 18
    v. NSH Oct 20
    v. Pitt Oct 23
    v WSH Oct 25
    @ NSH Oct 27
    @ CHIC Oct 28

    Usually season is over by Thanksgiving, but at least we usually make it to American Thanksgiving.

    But let’s be honest, this season was over on April 14 when they didn’t fire Chiarelli.

  89. Truth says:

    This is my prediction for upcoming events for the Oilers:

    – Oilers don’t make a move until they are on the clock at the draft.
    – Boqvist is the best available prospect on the board remaining.
    – Oilers trade #10 and Caleb Jones for Justin Faulk.
    – I vomit.

    Wild future predictions:
    – Boqvist and Jones play in Carolina for 10 years each.
    – Faulk gets a contract of 5 years @ $5M/per next offseason by the Oilers, forcing the Oilers to trade Klefbom for cap space.
    – I vomit again.

  90. leadfarmer says:

    Pink Socks:
    Regarding Gryba:

    1) Technically it saves Katz $900k.$300k saved in salary, and $300k X2 worth of cap space that can’t be spent this season and next.
    2) He could have been loaned to another team
    3) He and his agent could have been given permission to seek a trade
    4) His entire contract can be buried in the AHL
    5) I don’t buy the “give the young D time” in the AHL, Gryba playing 3rd pairing minutes still has plenty of ice time for the prospects

    “ I don’t buy”. You don’t have to buy. It’s the decision they just made. Doesn’t require you buying into anything.
    Obviously they don’t see a role for the player and would rather use that slot for a player who may have a future with the team.

  91. npanciroli says:

    Truth,

    I cry eternally.

  92. flea says:

    Oilin4,

    That is an absolutely savage opening schedule.

  93. Truth says:

    leadfarmer:
    Truth,

    Not BS at all.It is a very legitimate request.Plus like we have been saying for years.Development league is for development.Gryba is just taking time away from that.I’m sure Gryba would rather do something else than go to ECHL

    I’m sure he would prefer to play in the NHL, unfortunately he’s proven to be not good enough or else he would be playing there. It’s not as though he’s buried behind 7 good NHL D.

    They can sign me to sit in the pressbox for $200,000/year and I promise not to have hurt feelings. I have come to terms that I am not an NHL player and I understand my alternatives. Plus, by some miracle and if I work my ass off I know my best shot at playing in the NHL is on the team with the worst group of D.

  94. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    Every time I see the “Here Comes the Sun” post, I get a really good, excited feeling and then a really scared feeling and then a really excited feeling.

    Basically, teenage me trying to figure out the bra strap.

    Hope everyone has a great draft.

    We are Oiler fans. It is not the Sun. We are in a train tunnel, and it is a train bearing down on us again.

  95. N64 says:

    Oilin4: Oilers will be on road for 21 days with only 8 points up for grabs.

    3 whole weeks without the Home PK !!!

  96. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Of course, I see no reason with STL would trade Parayko aside from a massive haul.

    From accounts, teams have called STL about Parayko and his availability, the accounts are not about Parayko actually being available or shopped.

    I think a Parayko deal would have to involve 1) Draisaitl, OR 2) Nugent-Hopkins and Klefbom or 3) Klefbom, Puljujariv, and #10OV. It would be massive.

  97. Yeti says:

    leadfarmer: “ I don’t buy”. You don’t have to buy. It’s the decision they just made. Doesn’t require you buying into anything.
    Obviously they don’t see a role for the player and would rather use that slot for a player who may have a future with the team.

    To state the obvious, what he doesn’t buy is your argument that this is an ok decision.

    In any case, I rather suspect that there will be bigger things to worry about in the near future…

  98. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Keegan Lowe or similar No. 7 blue and maybe Brad Malone is your No. 4 C.”

    Neither are acceptable options, in my opinion.

    Keegan Lowe was signed, in my opinion, to play the role he played last year – veteran AHL mentor. If he was signed as a legit option for the opening night roster then Chiarelli has failed.I would MUCH rather have Gryba as the #7.

    Brad Malone isn’t an NHL player – he is sub-replacement level. In his 7 games last year, he was not only ineffective but he hurt the team with bad minor penalties.

    They are press box players, not the actual #7D or #14F. The actual #7D and #14F are in Bakersfield.

  99. Side says:

    Truth: You’d also think that Gryba would realize getting paid $900,000 / year while not being good enough to crack the Oilers roster is not such a bad thing.If he can’t make Edmonton’s roster where is he going to play?He’s looking at a 2-way contract to sign elsewhere and he’s going to make peanuts when training camp is over and he finds himself in the AHL again. That’s if anyone is willing to sign him at all.

    The whole “give him a chance” argument is total BS.There are hundreds of players out there not in the NHL, equally good (bad), but younger and would kill for that contract.

    Sports is all about being in the right place at the right time, is it not? I don’t think it would be the craziest, most unbelievable thing to suggest that Gryba could play in the NHL again. I’m sure Gryba is confident he can still play and he knows what’s best for him and his family. We see every day, every year, that NHL orgs. value experienced players that are good people. From all accounts I heard, Gryba is a standup guy and built a good rapport with the Oilers. Experienced, pricier vets who are “good locker room guys” get chosen over younger, “equally good (bad)” players all the time, this is nothing new.

  100. godot10 says:

    M00se1978:
    I see the Gryba buyout as an organization trying to create good will in the player community by giving Gryba a chance to find work elsewhere, and not just burying him.

    Sometimes we as fans forget the assets are real people with real lives and everything can’t filter down to a number, lives and feelings do come into it.

    Because number wise it makes no sense. But if that 300k buys a little goodwill it’s worth it.

    Gryba didn’t have to ask for a two year contract last year. It was his own fault. Chiarelli was a fool to give him a two year contract last year.

  101. Oilin4 says:

    flea:
    Oilin4,

    That is an absolutely savage opening schedule.

    Start off with a home game in Europe. 5 games against the 4 best teams in the league last year. Plus two others against the last three Stanley Cup Champions. Only two games against non-playoff teams and both those on the road.

    At least we won’t start the season with any false hope…I guess….

  102. godot10 says:

    npanciroli:
    Rishaug saying we are aggressively shopping the pick.

    HERE WE GO

    They seriously intend to screw up the McDavid rebuild. McDavid is the new Taylor Hall.

  103. godot10 says:

    anjinsan:
    LT, you’re the only one on God’s white sheet of ice saying Ty Smith grades out 5th.Bless you and keep you … away from the selection card :-).

    Wishful thinking…”The Oilers have made a trade…Chiarelli + $$ for Cheveldayoff.”Poor, poor Jets, look out below.

    In other news, following the announcement, riots break out in Winnipeg.

    We want the Jets scouts, not Cheveldayoff.

  104. Andy Dufresne says:

    John Chambers:
    $300K out of an $80M cap is 0.375%

    It’s really not a big deal.

    Fascinating! 0.375% is exactly the probability that posters on this site will like what Chia does today.

  105. Truth says:

    Side,

    My argument is that NHL teams are in the business of trying to win the Stanley Cup. They just chose to handicap themselves by artificially reducing the salary cap by $300,000 for themselves and only themselves. It is a poor move.

    I do not feel for Gryba. He insisted on a second year in his contract. By doing so the Oilers should expect him to perform to the level he insisted he is capable of. Are the Oilers looking to be known as the team willing to continuously fix their own mistakes at their own expense? Sure that looks good for the Gryba’s out there. How does McDavid and the rest of the team feel about the team owner pocketing $900,000 while reducing the team’s ability to ice the best team possible for the next two seasons? ‘Thanks for taking a pay cut Connor, we are going to maximize the use of the cap space you provided us’

  106. Side says:

    godot10: Gryba didn’t have to ask for a two year contract last year.It was his own fault.

    Yeah, shame on Gryba for him and his agent getting him the most money that they could, like almost every other athlete.

    I hope him and his family learned their lesson….

    /sarcasm

  107. godot10 says:

    Oilin4:
    Jason Gregor’s tweet on starting the season:

    #Oilers tough start to season…
    Start in Sweden Oct 6th v. NJ
    @ Bos Oct 11
    @ NYR Oct 13 (matinee)
    @ WPG Oct 16
    Oilers will be on road for 21 days with only 8 points up for grabs.
    v. Bos Oct 18
    v. NSH Oct 20
    v. Pitt Oct 23
    v WSH Oct 25
    @ NSH Oct 27
    @ CHIC Oct 28

    Usually season is over by Thanksgiving, but at least we usually make it to American Thanksgiving.

    But let’s be honest, this season was over on April 14 when they didn’t fire Chiarelli.

    The NHL schedule maker “hates” McLellan more than I do.

  108. Andy Dufresne says:

    Dino,

    In (Ozark) mountian time, it is right in between “feed the hogs” and “meet your cousin in the hayloft”…….or vice versa

  109. Side says:

    Truth:
    Side,

    My argument is that NHL teams are in the business of trying to win the Stanley Cup.They just chose to handicap themselves by artificially reducing the salary cap by $300,000 for themselves and only themselves.It is a poor move.

    I do not feel for Gryba.He insisted on a second year in his contract. By doing so the Oilers should expect him to perform to the level he insisted he is capable of.Are the Oilers looking to be known as the team willing to continuously fix their own mistakes at their own expense?Sure that looks good for the Gryba’s out there.How does McDavidand the rest of the team feel about the team owner pocketing $900,000 while reducing the team’s ability to ice the best team possible for the next two seasons?‘Thanks for taking a pay cut Connor, we are going to maximize the use of the cap space you provided us’

    Yes but NHL teams also work with players, players who are people, and people want different things. The Oilers are already in a situation where they reside in the frozen north that not a lot of players want to play in (even with the McDavid factor), and if they are seen as a shitty organization to deal with as a player, even less players will want to play for them.

    So do you suggest athletes should not try to get the most out of their contracts as they can?

    It’s not Gryba’s fault for asking for more term/money/security for him and his family, it’s Chia’s fault for giving it to him.

  110. Oilin4 says:

    Side: Yeah, shame on Gryba for him and his agent getting him the most money that they could, like almost every other athlete.

    I hope him and his family learned their lesson….

    /sarcasm

    No shame on Gryba for whining while suffering the consequences of making that demand.

  111. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: We’ve been talking for years about non prospects taking up prospects development time in the AHL. Gryba was not going to be an option for the NHL team

    WHICH PROSPECT(S) IN THE AHL SUFFERED REDUCED ICE-TIME DUE TO GRYBA BEING ON THE ROSTER??

  112. Side says:

    Oilin4: No shame on Gryba for whining while suffering the consequences of making that demand.

    Sources on Gryba whining?

  113. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer:
    npanciroli,

    There’s no way that Chia is capable of sitting still

    #hemorrhoids

    Definition: Bleeding Ass ets.

  114. Minister D- says:

    Only in Oilerland could the news of Eric Gryba being placed on unconditional waivers sour up draft day. Try a whiskey sour instead. It’s better for the soul.

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde: I’d first like to say that I agree with your premise and was championing Malone all year to fill the 4th line in order to reunite Strome and Khaira, but

    All of Malone’s TOI came from the start of the year where the Oilers were controlling play very well as a top 3 raw corsi team and getting hard PDO’d due to luck, awful shooting talent, and poor shot-quality systems play.

    They were also chasing leads a hilarious amount and this gamed their raw totals as well

    I think you missed the part where all of Malone’s most common linemates had very poor possession metrics without him, and world-class possession metrics with him.

  116. Yeti says:

    Side: Yes but NHL teams also work with players, players who are people, and people want different things.The Oilers are already in a situation where they reside in the frozen north that not a lot of players want to play in (even with the McDavid factor), and if they are seen as a shitty organization to deal with as a player, even less players will want to play for them.

    So do you suggest athletes should not try to get the most out of their contracts as they can?

    It’s not Gryba’s fault for asking for more term/money/security for him and his family, it’s Chia’s fault for giving it to him.

    Sure, but then why buy him out? You can’t blame Gryba for getting a good contract. You can’t blame the Oilers for making him honour it, even if it means spending the season in California playing limited minutes.

  117. Pink Socks says:

    leadfarmer: “ I don’t buy”. You don’t have to buy.It’s the decision they just made.Doesn’t require you buying into anything.
    Obviously they don’t see a role for the player and would rather use that slot for a player who may have a future with the team.

    The “I don’t buy” comment was pretty clear in regards to Gryba playing above players with an NHL future. He isn’t going to play ahead of Bear, Jones, Mantha, or even Lagesson. So “I don’t buy” that portion of the argument that makes it acceptable to make the cap $79.2m to do a favor for a player who is likely not going to be paid $900k on his next contract.

    The team has 39 contracts, freeing up one spot is hardly necessary considering the implications of the overall cap being reduced. If there was $30m in cap space available then the argument is more acceptable. But coming in on a crunch with a forward group that is worse two years running and a defensive corps that is the exact same as 2 years ago with more regression than improvement.

    And who is going to receive that contract? Patrick Russell? How is his NHL future looking? Or replacing Ben Betker, or Dillon Simpson, or Mark Fayne? All D contracts that are no longer part of the organization. The argument made to legitimize the buyout in order to open a spot for an additional contract is folly, as is saying that he is using up ice time that would otherwise be given to another D prospect.

    Financially, it isn’t $300k saved, it is $900k taking into account cap space that cannot be used now for two seasons. If Gryba couldn’t be loaned to another team, or he and his agent could not facilitate a trade, then he should have been in the minors with no cap implications.

    These types of decisions are not those made by successful franchises. Executive management employed by teams fortunate enough to have the financial resources to spend to the cap every season do not waste cap space with unnecessary buyouts (Pouliot/Gryba), nor do they waste an additional $1.5m in a tight cap year for an unproven backup goaltender. These decisions in and of themselves are not killers, but combined they add up, especially in the context of a below average team with the best player on the planet in a tight cap situation.

  118. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer:
    Wonder what kind of offers Chia is getting today?You know Lou is probably calling him every 20 minutes

    Chia set up a table in the hotel lobby. Other GMs are lined up out on to the street. Pierre Dorion is stuck in the revolving door. Garth Snow is alone at the breakfast buffet.

  119. Pink Socks says:

    ArmchairGM: WHICH PROSPECT(S) IN THE AHL SUFFERED REDUCED ICE-TIME DUE TO GRYBA BEING ON THE ROSTER??

    Ben Betker. The humanity.

  120. Truth says:

    Side,

    Totally going to overlook the fact the Oilers gave him the two years in the first place? They could have told him to find work elsewhere. How about Gryba’s responsibility to live up to his end of the contract. Not his fault the Oilers were dumb enough to sign him to the two years, but not the Oilers fault Gryba has done nothing but regress since the contract was signed. He was going to get paid $900,000 to play hockey. If he wants an NHL shot again all he had to do was prove he was capable of doing so.

  121. Pink Socks says:

    Andy Dufresne: Chia set up a table in the hotel lobby. Other GMs are lined up out on to the street. Pierre Dorion is stuck in the revolving door.

    Dorion is only stuck because Bergevin couldn’t figure a way out.

  122. stevebergeron97 says:

    If JP is traded I’m going on strike.

  123. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: WHICH PROSPECT(S) IN THE AHL SUFFERED REDUCED ICE-TIME DUE TO GRYBA BEING ON THE ROSTER??

    I will refer you to the last 4 years of posts from multiple posters on this blog as a reference.
    Oh crap I forgot to put all caps

  124. jake70 says:

    leadfarmer:
    ArmchairGM,

    If you are drawing any type of conclusions from those numbers you are doing it all wrong.200 min+ thats enough data to make a conclusion.100 min-200 min not really enough but fun to take a peak.
    <50 min.Absolutely meaningless

    Can’t speak for him but it’s possible he is putting up a counter to OPs constant cut and paste posts on Malone being “awful”. Is he an NHL player? Probably closer to no than yes. The data, if considered meaningless, does not support “awful” as much as it does not support NHL player caliber. It’s the untimely penalty/penalties he took that stand out, no argument there, but those can be addressed.

  125. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    ArmchairGM,

    If you are drawing any type of conclusions from those numbers you are doing it all wrong.200 min+ thats enough data to make a conclusion.100 min-200 min not really enough but fun to take a peak.
    <50 min.Absolutely meaningless

    You’re talking out of both sides of your mouth – telling me I can’t draw any conclusions from 50 mins if ice-time and at the same time tacitly defending conclusions that his play was “sub-replacement level” and “ineffective”.

  126. leadfarmer says:

    Pink Socks,

    One thing people always forget is these guys are human beings and GMs try to accommodate them because the NHL is a small world. That’s why most players that ask for a trade get traded. So when Pronger asked for a trade fans reaction tended to be suck it up fuzz ball you signed the contract you have to stay here. The league just doesn’t work like that.
    So while the typical fans response is make Grybas miserable. Send him to ECHL. Make him terminate the contract himself
    The league just doesn’t run like that

  127. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: They seriously intend to screw up the McDavid rebuild.McDavid is the new Taylor Hall.

    Man, you’re on fire today!

  128. rickithebear says:

    1. Forwards are far superior @ generating even offence to dmen while maintaining defensive structure for the critical NZ trap.
    2. Generating offence requires our attackers to deconstruct the oppositions def structure unless the oppositions forwards and offensive dmen abandon the structure for them.
    3. Preventing GA by holding structure and reducing the open shots from CA above average CA is the primary role & affect of defencmsns ability.
    A product of 5 factors:
    1. Coaches def system. Choosing to abandon and expose high density shot areas in DZ.
    2. forwards/ offensive Dmen failings and weather NZ trap was run. Most critical action in the zone entry prevention +ve and -ve binary action result route tree. Thier is a series of binary actions (path in the route tree) that creates best results for your team in any critical portion of game play broken down to a series of binary mechanics results. D. Sutter was correct in saying that analytics is turning players into robots. Just defensive play. Structure must be maintained.
    2. Bench change decision by coach to go on ice with or without pocession.
    3. NZ start and FO success
    4. Dman shot density reduction rate to his side (Larsson) and open shot per CA reduction to his side (Russell)

    HD affect is a product of the superior HDSH:LDSH Save% ratio. From superior goal tending.
    In the higher goal rate era. The save % range was the same but save % base was much lower so HD:LD ratio was much smaller and HD penetration was less critical.

    I have recently started breaking down junior performance on a game log basis, based on decade of save% performance of the junior goalies they are facing.

    It is what I do at an NHL level for any players history in possible conference game volume change.
    It is a warning. It is about Baseline performance repeatability. ROBOT.

    Offensive Dmen by the nature of becoming a 4th forward or rover enact a lot of -ve actions in the goal prevention result route tree.

    We will do ok if we find den who tick all the correct mechanism boxes and still generate strong even offence. Doing it against NHL standard goaltending in thier prospect league.

    I would be more comfortable not taking Zhayton or Smith.

    By success probability in GF and GA route trees.
    Offensive Dmen are OFFENSIVE.

    Have all of you broke down all play to the best mechanics paths and best paths after mistakes?

    This is level 3 of my work!

  129. Pink Socks says:

    leadfarmer: I will refer you to the last 4 years of posts from multiple posters on this blog as a reference.
    Oh crap I forgot to put all caps

    Quite a few of those posts were also directed at the forward group and Fleming giving JP around 12 minutes a night and not putting him in a position to succeed, i.e. on the ice with Lander.

  130. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Dino,

    In (Ozark) mountian time, it is right in between “feed the hogs” and “meet your cousin in the hayloft”.

    Another guy batting 1.000 today.

  131. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Sure if you want to completely ignore his almost 300 Ahl games and almost 200 NHL games for a 7 game sample size. Go right ahead.
    You make it sound like we have absolutely no data on this player

  132. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Pink Socks,

    Yes… all of this is gold.

  133. Woogie63 says:

    Gyrba on a $300,000 buy-out why all the discussion?

    The Oilers have had the Cap range for months, they have been in conversations with agents for months. They have all the numbers figured out within an acceptable range.

    Cap room to do the “right thing” for Eric … honoring play time commitments to college FA, paying Driasaitl like a pro athlete are the reputation you need when you play in a small market in the most Northern city in the league.

  134. Pink Socks says:

    leadfarmer:
    Pink Socks,

    One thing people always forget is these guys are human beings and GMs try to accommodate them because the NHL is a small world.That’s why most players that ask for a trade get traded.So when Pronger asked for a trade fans reaction tended to be suck it up fuzz ball you signed the contract you have to stay here.The league just doesn’t work like that.
    So while the typical fans response is make Grybas miserable.Send him to ECHL.Make him terminate the contract himself
    The league just doesn’t run like that

    Pronger is a bit of a stretch as a comparison to Gryba; when he asked for the trade there wasn’t much the team could do but to try and get the best return possible.

    And I’m not at all suggesting that the organization should intentionally make Gryba miserable, that would be abhorrent. But Gryba playing in the AHL where he likely belongs is hardly intentionally making him miserable. By all accounts he is a good human being and could have served as a useful mentor in the AHL as well. And it is still a business after all, and the business the Edmonton Oilers should be in has the goal of winning in mind.

    Had Gryba asked for a trade (I don’t know either way), then PC could have given his agent permission to seek a trade. The buyout was just a pure waste of cap space, unnecessary, and will make the next 3 months $300k more complicated.

  135. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    One thing I would add is punish the teams modern defenseman. Caps made Theodore look silly by making him defend. A lot of modern d have gotten away with subpar defending cause they can move the puck away from danger before they actually have to defend. Don’t give them that little bit of space. It moves things away from a defensive zone type system but Caps have shown that it still works. Make them defend one on one.
    Taylor Hall getting the Hart is a big product of a NJ modern defenseman. They keep getting him the puck with speed something we were not capable of. Their offensive contribution are for the most part not on the stat sheets

  136. --hudson-- says:

    @VOR: finally had a chance to get through the link and video you provided earlier this week. http://www.vancourier.com/sports/you-want-to-be-strong-minded-but-not-pigheaded-behind-the-scenes-of-a-canucks-scouting-meeting-1.23319927

    It looks like the Canucks made a solid promotion in Judd Bracket to run their amateur scouting after years of poor drafting. Similarly to Stu McGregor they seem to go through the list in subgroups, rank the subgroup, then move on to the next subgroup. One interesting thing they do is discretely score each player attribute (potential, hockey sense, character/compete, skating, skill, etc.) which is a good framework for getting all the influencers on the same page and organizing the data. However they do it in a group setting on a whiteboard so it’s subject to all of the biases that groupthink brings in (perhaps this shouldn’t be judged too harshly considering it is a youtube video).

    Bracket does appear to be doing a great job in Canuck land and we already knew Jim Benning was a solid scout from his time in Buffalo. Here’s an article about him in the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/323316/2018/04/21/checking-in-with-judd-brackett-the-canucks-director-of-amateur-scouting/

    Interesting comments on how they have to evaluate the skill set for players in both lesser leagues and higher leagues, and how the play in the age group tournaments are critical. No mention of the small sample size issues there though. Also interesting to hear how the organizations priorities impact their rankings. When speed or skill (or any of the attributes) is mandated by the top, the definition of best player available changes.

    This article is a must read IMO, mentions how character is useful in absence of offensive production along with not getting influenced by results in one tournament.
    http://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/for-the-canucks-judd-brackett-scouting-and-drafting-are-a-collaborative-effort-1.23144857

    ———-
    Really interesting process you described about Toronto. I hope the Oilers follow suit with a data board as well as a qualitative board. Once you get a new process in place, how many years do you think it takes for the staff to become proficient with it? 2-3 years?

    ———-

    Another revealing video on youtube is from the Blue Jackets in 2012. John Davidson kicks it off by saying he’s there to observe and learn, but later in the meeting he influences the scouting staff in their deliberations. “Watch the hockey sense, importance of character, etc.” – power dynamics at play. The Blue Jackets had 3 first round picks that year and looks like they only found one player (Wennberg).
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMGe5JwvvP0

    Here’s the Blackhawks process however I haven’t watched it yet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLRo7BTfm-s
    Once you watch a couple of these videos, youtubes recommendations are a gold mine.

    I don’t think I’ll ever get tired of any thoughts you have to share, especially on the draft.

  137. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM: I think you missed the part where all of Malone’s most common linemates had very poor possession metrics without him, and world-class possession metrics with him.

    No, I did not.

    What I mentioned was that the *entire team* had good possession metrics during that time, including players who later floundered “away from Malone”.

    Here is the data that illustrates my point:

    The Edmonton Oilers, in the first 8 games of the season:

    57.11% raw CF% – 1st in NHL

    57.78% raw FF% – 1st in NHL

    59.54% raw SCF% – 1st in NHL

    64.23% raw HDCF% – 1st in NHL

    The Oilers, when Brad Malone was playing for the team in October, were a team that was crushing all of the statistical categories that you reference no matter who was on the ice, due to high percentages of D shot volumes and trailing almost every minute.

    As for Malone bringing up these numbers, he played for 10% of the team’s ice-time in low-event minutes.

    The WOWYs for players that played the full season versus just him are hard gamed by circumstance, as are many samples that small.

    Was the line, with Brad Malone on it, a better unit than when he wasn’t?

    Almost certainly, yes.

    Is referencing these numbers without context wholly midleading?

    Yes.

  138. leadfarmer says:

    Pink Socks,

    That’s the point. They don’t want him in the AHL!!!!
    Don’t like Pronger. fine. Substitute any player that has asked for a trade. They get traded

  139. rickithebear says:

    You want dmen who are the defensive dmen of year in conference and leagues.
    They tend to have high % shift repeatable correct route tree paths.
    They often tick the development league markers.
    Betker I cannot judge cause I have not viewed unfiltered video (you tube highlights be damned) to review his route tree choices.

    But he is ticking all the HD Progression boxeses.
    Last 2 CHL seasons.
    Games in ECHL over 2 seasons
    First season of games in AHL.
    Then a stall in last years AHL results.

    Can often be org decisions,coach or roster, that can cause this.
    This WHL East conference def dmen of year is 6’6” 228 lb.
    Who better get reupped!

  140. N64 says:

    @DarrenDreger
    6m6 minutes ago
    Without a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round pick, the Calgary Flames are investigating all potential to acquire a 1st round pick.

    ~ Snap. Lucic in Calgary ~

  141. Younger Oil says:

    Best possible outcome of the rumors swirling around:

    10th + Russell for Hamilton.

    Most likely:

    10th+Puljujarvi/Klefbom for Parayko

  142. SwedishPoster says:

    If anybody wants a soccer game with a risk to get pretty ugly in the run up to the draft I’d suggest Serbia vs a swiss team with a bunch of guys with kosovan background. There’s some bad blood there that might come out. Tbh I hope they are sensible enough to not bother with stupid garbage like that but footballers aren’t known for their great minds. Could make for an interesting match up.

  143. Harpers Hair says:

    Dave Pagnotta reporting that Cam Talbot is in play.

  144. Pink Socks says:

    leadfarmer:
    Pink Socks,

    That’s the point.They don’t want him in the AHL!!!!
    Don’t like Pronger. fine.Substitute any player that has asked for a trade. They get traded

    And that’s my point. Why not have him in the AHL? 1 year of mentorship for the younger players, he isn’t blocking anyone, he’s still making his $900k, and he doesn’t count against the cap. He should be in the AHL because he likely belongs there from a skillset perspective, and because it doesn’t harm the team from a salary cap standpoint. Not wanting him in the AHL is the mistake.

    Hamonic asked to be traded, he got traded a year later. Lucic has likely requested it, we can all pray it happens. I also don’t believe Gryba asked for a trade.

    Per PC after the buyout:

    “We just figured that he wouldn’t be in our lineup next year, and that it would clear up a contract. It also gives Eric a chance to look elsewhere”.

    This is my argument. First off, PC’s statement made me lean towards the financial benefit of buying him out, and furthermore, simply because a player is not in the lineup doesn’t mean he must be bought out. Clearing a contract as discussed was unnecessary at this point being that the team is only at 39. Giving Eric a chance to look elsewhere could have been granted to his agent. The decision making is questionable, at best. At worst, it does not have winning as its number one priority.

  145. knighttown says:

    I simply cannot believe the childish way of thinking on this Gryba news. I run a business with over 200 employees. I love them all but the health of the business overrides everything. Sometimes one good person needs to be sacrificed for the health of the company and the other 200 people that depend on me doing my job.

    If I was a GM I would be very clear that I will do everything in my power to be a good guy but NOTHING can impact the salary cap as that is my only way to compete on even terms with the other 30 NHL teams.

    The Oilers would have preferred one year but Gryba pushed for two years. I’m sure they were very clear that if he signs for one year and it doesn’t work out he’s free to go elsewhere. If he signs for two years there’s some chance, maybe even a good chance, that he has to spend a lot of time in the AHL.

    It didn’t work out and the Oilers have no choice but to fulfill their agreement and cut him his check every week for two years. He does have a choice. He can stop showing up for work and terminate his agreement but of course, he’s a good pro and he wants to continue to cash his checks. All the while, the Oilers have his name out there for the inevitable rash of injuries in the NHL and maybe someone offers a 7th for him in November.

    But never, NEVER would I harm the hundreds of other Oilers employees by “doing a solid” to a good soldier that directly impacts my ability to do my job.

    The other aspect of this is precedent. My dad told me when I got into management that “no good deed goes unpunished”. If you remember Janet’s birthday and you bring flowers that’s amazing and well received but God forbid if you don’t bring flowers for Margaret’s birthday next week and even more devastating, if you don’t bring them for Janet’s birthday next year. A good owner/manager should be fair, transparent and consistent in their decision making.

    What happens if Kassian struggles out of the gate and spends most of the year in the AHL. How do they tell him next summer that he has to spend the year in Bakersfield when the “did Gryba a solid”. You want hard feelings from players and agents? That’s how you get them.

    If you have a policy that we aren’t doing buyouts for any reason other than for the long term betterment of the team than you never have to worry about special favours coming back to bite you.

  146. rickithebear says:

    Math married with video.
    You can identify changes in career route tree path choices.
    EX. Ference a top HD dman in CGY , BOS and to JAN first season in Edmonton.
    Shoulder done.
    Critical mechanism to his +ve HD route tree path gone.
    HD career gone.

  147. --hudson-- says:

    The Canucks just gave out $1.475M for a 12 point player.
    https://twitter.com/sportsnetirf/status/1010217169181790210

  148. Pink Socks says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Dave Pagnotta reporting that Cam Talbot is in play.

    Interesting that the Oilers requesting his 10-team list for after July 1st. That would open cap space, but then the unproven $2.5m backup is the unproven $2.5m starter. Maybe he gets moved and PC goes after Grubauer. Will be an entertaining two weeks.

  149. Pink Socks says:

    knighttown,

    Terrific post

  150. godot10 says:

    –hudson–:
    The Canucks just gave out $1.475M for a 12 point player.
    https://twitter.com/sportsnetirf/status/1010217169181790210

    Pro-rate that over a season (he was injured) and he is a 12-13 goal scorer just like Caggiula. So he got the same money as Caggiula and the Canucks didn’t give him the 2nd year. Benning > Chiarelli

  151. PokeCheck says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Dave Pagnotta reporting that Cam Talbot is in play.

    Perhaps it’s related to this? https://www.tsn.ca/sabres-won-t-qualify-rfa-lehner-1.1120283

    We know how Chia is when it comes to giant Viking goaltenders!

  152. N64 says:

    knighttown: If you have a policy that we aren’t doing buyouts for any reason other than for the long term betterment of the team than you never have to worry about special favours coming back to bite you.

    100%. The bigger concern is that this and the Pou movement both stink of cash preservation.

  153. JimmyV1965 says:

    It’s interesting the different perspectives on an issue. Many people are crapping their pants because of the tough start to the schedule. Yet I think it’s a good thing. These teams will be much more beatable in October than February. Teams like Bos Pgh Was Nas and Wpg are loaded with vets. We can catch them napping at the start of the season. That won’t happen later in the year.

  154. godot10 says:

    Pink Socks: Interesting that the Oilers requesting his 10-team list for after July 1st.That would open cap space, but then the unproven $2.5m backup is the unproven $2.5m starter.Maybe he gets moved and PC goes after Grubauer.Will be an entertaining two weeks.

    Jake Allen is coming with Parayko! for Draisaitl ! -). #unfoundedspeculation on my part.

  155. Side says:

    Yeti: Sure, but then why buy him out? You can’t blame Gryba for getting a good contract. You can’t blame the Oilers for making him honour it, even if it means spending the season in California playing limited minutes.

    I don’t know why they bought him out. I don’t know Gryba personally, I don’t know Chiarelli personally and I don’t know what other factors were in play in the deal. I can only speak on how it could make sense for buying out Gryba from a personnel standpoint. I’m not sure why people are making such a huge deal about this deal when they don’t know any of these factors, either.

  156. Gret99zky says:

    knighttown:
    I simply cannot believe the childish way of thinking on this Gryba news.I run a business with over 200 employees.I love them all but the health of the business overrides everything.Sometimes one good person needs to be sacrificed for the health of the company and the other 200 people that depend on me doing my job.

    If I was a GM I would be very clear that I will do everything in my power to be a good guy but NOTHING can impact the salary cap as that is my only way to compete on even terms with the other 30 NHL teams.

    The Oilers would have preferred one year but Gryba pushed for two years.I’m sure they were very clear that if he signs for one year and it doesn’t work out he’s free to go elsewhere.If he signs for two years there’s some chance, maybe even a good chance, that he has to spend a lot of time in the AHL.

    It didn’t work out and the Oilers have no choice but to fulfill their agreement and cut him his check every week for two years.He does have a choice.He can stop showing up for work and terminate his agreement but of course, he’s a good pro and he wants to continue to cash his checks. All the while, the Oilers have his name out there for the inevitable rash of injuries in the NHL and maybe someone offers a 7th for him in November.

    But never, NEVER would I harm the hundreds of other Oilers employees by “doing a solid” to a good soldier that directly impacts my ability to do my job.

    The other aspect of this is precedent.My dad told me when I got into management that “no good deed goes unpunished”.If you remember Janet’s birthday and you bring flowers that’s amazing and well received but God forbid if you don’t bring flowers for Margaret’s birthday next week and even more devastating, if you don’t bring them for Janet’s birthday next year.A good owner/manager should be fair, transparent and consistent in their decision making.

    What happens if Kassian struggles out of the gate and spends most of the year in the AHL.How do they tell him next summer that he has to spend the year in Bakersfield when the “did Gryba a solid”.You want hard feelings from players and agents?That’s how you get them.

    If you have a policy that we aren’t doing buyouts for any reason other than for the long term betterment of the team than you never have to worry about special favours coming back to bite you.

    Not a word out of place.

  157. Ben says:

    man, one day I’d love to approach draft day with curiosity rather than dread

  158. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair,

    The team that does not play it’s backup trades it’s starter? Unless he has no interest in re-signing

  159. Dominoiler says:

    M00se1978:
    I see the Gryba buyout as an organization trying to create good will in the player community by giving Gryba a chance to find work elsewhere, and not just burying him.

    Sometimes we as fans forget the assets are real people with real lives and everything can’t filter down to a number, lives and feelings do come into it.

    Because number wise it makes no sense. But if that 300k buys a little goodwill it’s worth it.

    First of all, Thanks N64 for your response,

    I do agree strongly with this post, tho.. doing a solid and creating goodwill and exuding loyalty builds trust that extends past singular personal relationships..

    I also strongly agree that the pou buyout really blew up in the oilers face, but again i wonder about “locker room / intangibles” (but still, bled talent, were worse off in terms of on ice talent.. perhaps locker room issues are lessened if players are appreciated)

  160. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Harpers Hair,

    The team that does not play it’s backup trades it’s starter?Unless he has no interest in re-signing

    That is what is being speculated. Perhaps he wants a long term deal and the Oilers won’t give it to him?

  161. Side says:

    Truth:
    Side,

    Totally going to overlook the fact the Oilers gave him the two years in the first place?They could have told him to find work elsewhere.How about Gryba’s responsibility to live up to his end of the contract.Not his fault the Oilers were dumb enough to sign him to the two years, but not the Oilers fault Gryba has done nothing but regress since the contract was signed.He was going to get paid $900,000 to play hockey.If he wants an NHL shot again all he had to do was prove he was capable of doing so.

    Not overlooking the fact the Oilers gave him two years in the first place. I think they should have told him to look elsewhere, but they signed him, so here we are.

    You’re making it seem like Gryba stopped living up to his contract intentionally. How does one live up to a contract if it’s out of their physical capacity? It should have been Chiarelli’s job to say “nah, that’s too rich and too long term”. If Oilers say “no Gryba, we think you’re worth this much”, do you expect Gryba to say “actually, no, I’m not”?

  162. trencan says:

    SwedishPoster:
    If anybody wants a soccer game with a risk to get pretty ugly in the run up to the draft I’d suggest Serbia vs a swiss team with a bunch of guys with kosovan background. There’s some bad blood there that might come out. Tbh I hope they are sensible enough to not bother with stupid garbage like that but footballers aren’t known for their great minds. Could make for an interesting match up.

    Hope the match will be more interesting than the fist two today. And good luck tomorow against Germany.

  163. Dominoiler says:

    knighttown,

    This is why i love this blog / community space.. thanks for the insight, another way to see it, something to chew on..

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Bullshit.

    51:25 TOI
    59.26 CF%
    58.62 FF%
    60.98 SF%
    62.86 SCF%
    75.00 HDCF%
    41.38 OZ faceoff %
    0 GF
    0 GA

    Most common linemates:
    Zack Kassian33:27
    Jussi Jokinen22:36
    Mark Letestu14:55

    All these guys have a ~40 CF% without Malone. With Malone, they posted 55.10, 66.67 and 61.90 respectively. That’s neither “ineffective” nor “sub-replacement level” – those are pretty impressive stats, especially considering the linemates.

    I’m not interested in getting into a big debate here, but those numbers have to be an amazingly small sample size. The guy played seven games and I’m assuming at less than 10 min a game. How much value can those stats possibly have? I’m going from memory here, but didn’t he get demoted after taking a couple real boneheaded penalties?

  165. rickithebear says:

    Desjardins age equivalency curves for CHL tell us what age the draft should be.
    Each draft year has a base with age based factor added based on % established by days of birth year divided by 365.
    (Draft year base + (age factor x (days/365)) = translatable %

    draft base: with CHL league equivalency .30
    So league adjustment must be made to Production.

    Draft base:
    Draft -1 (16) = .75
    Draft (17) = .50
    Draft +1 (18) = .40
    Draft +2 (19) = .35
    Draft +3 (20) = .32
    Draft +4 (21) = .30
    LT says 5 years. Markers to age 21 in all development leagues.

    Age factor:
    Draft -1 = .25
    Draft = .25
    Draft +1 = .10
    Draft +2 =.05
    Draft +3 = .03
    Draft +4 = .02

    Everyone wants a 18 year draft.
    Cause it protects the teams from production math variance.
    Traditional scouting becomes more important st this age for differentiation.

  166. bendelson says:

    bendelson: You meld ‘delusions of grandeur’ into said ‘inferiority complex’, and you have one seriously confused organization. Ladies and gentlemen, YOUR Edmonton Oilers!

    As usual, great post B!

    Sincerely,
    Not Bendelson.

  167. €√¥£€^$ says:

    First and foremost, my sincere thanks to LT for all that you do especially at this time of year.

    Based on the tea leaves, the Oilers need to add to the prospect pool, shed salary and add a RHD here are my guesses regarding what could happen tonight.

    1. Edm trades RNH to Mtl for 3rd Overall
    2. Edm trades 3rd overall to Phi for #14 & #19
    3. Edm trades #10 to Mtl for #35, 38 & 56
    4. Edm trades Nurse + #14 to St. Louis for Parayko
    5. Edm trades Kassian to Car for their 4th rounder + a prospect (Foegele?)

    Maybe they use #19 and Cagguila for Panarin (I think they will take a run at him), I think Klefbom will be kept due to his great cap #/contract + injury history (which will scare teams) & Nurse’s ask + offensive limitations. I would hope, but my confidence is low in Chia tbh, that Yammer and JP are not moved. I do not want Karlsson (Whitney ankle 2.0) or Faulk – not good at defending. I am expecting an exciting, interesting and hopefully excellent draft.

    Enjoy tonight all!

  168. rickithebear says:

    WOWY small sample sizes become better when you can combine multiple seasons to get in @ least 100 – 150 minutes for even.
    But the variance of 3rd forward year to year can becomes a factor.

  169. leadfarmer says:

    knighttown,

    It amazes me how many people compare the NHL to a normal business. The NHL is not a typical business. It is a small inbred business where everyone knows the little things you do. You give college free agents guaranteed employment you get more that want to sign with you. You break a promise to one, kiss the rest goodbye. One of your employees asks to leave you rip up their contract and say goodbye not now I have to find a competitor that the employee wants to work for that will take the entire contract. One of your employees isn’t doing their job you fire them. You get a hockey player that shows up to camp out of shape you can’t fire them. You can’t get out of that contract

    You need good relationships with agents. If you don’t it’s going to cost you a lot more than a little buyout. A poor agent GM relationship can sour a lot more than one lightly burried contract

  170. Side says:

    knighttown:

    But never, NEVER would I harm the hundreds of other Oilers employees by “doing a solid” to a good soldier that directly impacts my ability to do my job.

    If you were GM your job is to construct a team that can win. If you replace Gryba’s spot on the team immediately with a better player that will benefit your organization in the long run, isn’t that a win? Aren’t you doing your job?

  171. Woogie63 says:

    knighttown:
    I simply cannot believe the childish way of thinking on this Gryba news.I run a business with over 200 employees.I love them all but the health of the business overrides everything.Sometimes one good person needs to be sacrificed for the health of the company and the other 200 people that depend on me doing my job.

    If I was a GM I would be very clear that I will do everything in my power to be a good guy but NOTHING can impact the salary cap as that is my only way to compete on even terms with the other 30 NHL teams.

    The Oilers would have preferred one year but Gryba pushed for two years.I’m sure they were very clear that if he signs for one year and it doesn’t work out he’s free to go elsewhere.If he signs for two years there’s some chance, maybe even a good chance, that he has to spend a lot of time in the AHL.

    It didn’t work out and the Oilers have no choice but to fulfill their agreement and cut him his check every week for two years.He does have a choice.He can stop showing up for work and terminate his agreement but of course, he’s a good pro and he wants to continue to cash his checks. All the while, the Oilers have his name out there for the inevitable rash of injuries in the NHL and maybe someone offers a 7th for him in November.

    But never, NEVER would I harm the hundreds of other Oilers employees by “doing a solid” to a good soldier that directly impacts my ability to do my job.

    The other aspect of this is precedent.My dad told me when I got into management that “no good deed goes unpunished”.If you remember Janet’s birthday and you bring flowers that’s amazing and well received but God forbid if you don’t bring flowers for Margaret’s birthday next week and even more devastating, if you don’t bring them for Janet’s birthday next year.A good owner/manager should be fair, transparent and consistent in their decision making.

    What happens if Kassian struggles out of the gate and spends most of the year in the AHL.How do they tell him next summer that he has to spend the year in Bakersfield when the “did Gryba a solid”.You want hard feelings from players and agents?That’s how you get them.

    If you have a policy that we aren’t doing buyouts for any reason other than for the long term betterment of the team than you never have to worry about special favours coming back to bite you.

    Surely your most senior manger of your 200 person organization has discretion to spend .375% of her budget.

  172. Oilin4 says:

    knighttown:
    I simply cannot believe the childish way of thinking on this Gryba news.I run a business with over 200 employees.I love them all but the health of the business overrides everything.Sometimes one good person needs to be sacrificed for the health of the company and the other 200 people that depend on me doing my job.

    If I was a GM I would be very clear that I will do everything in my power to be a good guy but NOTHING can impact the salary cap as that is my only way to compete on even terms with the other 30 NHL teams.

    The Oilers would have preferred one year but Gryba pushed for two years.I’m sure they were very clear that if he signs for one year and it doesn’t work out he’s free to go elsewhere.If he signs for two years there’s some chance, maybe even a good chance, that he has to spend a lot of time in the AHL.

    It didn’t work out and the Oilers have no choice but to fulfill their agreement and cut him his check every week for two years.He does have a choice.He can stop showing up for work and terminate his agreement but of course, he’s a good pro and he wants to continue to cash his checks. All the while, the Oilers have his name out there for the inevitable rash of injuries in the NHL and maybe someone offers a 7th for him in November.

    But never, NEVER would I harm the hundreds of other Oilers employees by “doing a solid” to a good soldier that directly impacts my ability to do my job.

    The other aspect of this is precedent.My dad told me when I got into management that “no good deed goes unpunished”.If you remember Janet’s birthday and you bring flowers that’s amazing and well received but God forbid if you don’t bring flowers for Margaret’s birthday next week and even more devastating, if you don’t bring them for Janet’s birthday next year.A good owner/manager should be fair, transparent and consistent in their decision making.

    What happens if Kassian struggles out of the gate and spends most of the year in the AHL.How do they tell him next summer that he has to spend the year in Bakersfield when the “did Gryba a solid”.You want hard feelings from players and agents?That’s how you get them.

    If you have a policy that we aren’t doing buyouts for any reason other than for the long term betterment of the team than you never have to worry about special favours coming back to bite you.

    Word.

  173. Side says:

    leadfarmer:
    knighttown,

    It amazes me how many people compare the NHL to a normal business.The NHL is not a typical business.It is a small inbred business where everyone knows the little things you do.You give college free agents guaranteed employment you get more that want to sign with you. You break a promise to one, kiss the rest goodbye.One of your employees asks to leave you rip up their contract and say goodbye not now I have to find a competitor that the employee wants to work for that will take the entire contract.One of your employees isn’t doing their job you fire them.You get a hockey player that shows up to camp out of shape you can’t fire them.You can’t get out of that contract

    You need good relationships with agents.If you don’t it’s going to cost you a lot more than a little buyout.A poor agent GM relationship can sour a lot more than one lightly burried contract

    If running a business was the same as running a sports team, the Edmonton Oilers would have been very successful under very successful business man, Darryl Katz.

    But here we are…

    Related question to anyone knows, are there any GMs out there who are current/former business owners?

  174. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Dave Pagnotta reporting that Cam Talbot is in play.

    @TSNRyanRishaug
    Some rumblings out there about Cam Talbot, for what it’s worth, I have been told there is zero chance Cam Talbot gets dealt.

  175. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: That is what is being speculated. Perhaps he wants a long term deal and the Oilers won’t give it to him?

    Stupid question. But isnt asking for the no trade destinations of contracts standard operating procedure each offseason. I thought players with partial NTCs had to submit their list each off season. I may be entirely wrong.

  176. rickithebear says:

    You want talent
    If prospects do not have glaring deficiencies.
    From shukes draft chart success.
    Picks
    1-5: 92-74%
    6-9: 70 – 60%
    10-14: 56.5 – 45.5%
    15-21: 43.5% – 33.5%
    22-34: 32.5 – 22.5%

    You want talent from pick 22 and a player does not have skating issues or physiological flaws.
    Take the age based math.
    You will get Eberles, DeBrincat s and math says 20g 60p yamamotto at age 21

  177. knighttown says:

    leadfarmer:
    knighttown,

    It amazes me how many people compare the NHL to a normal business.The NHL is not a typical business.It is a small inbred business where everyone knows the little things you do.You give college free agents guaranteed employment you get more that want to sign with you. You break a promise to one, kiss the rest goodbye.One of your employees asks to leave you rip up their contract and say goodbye not now I have to find a competitor that the employee wants to work for that will take the entire contract.

    I don’t disagree that that is the way some teams (this team!) are run (“small, inbred etc”) but dammit, it shouldn’t be that way. Their team payroll alone is 80 million. These are big effing businesses.

    My business is pharmacy/medical centres (no this isn’t Katz’s burner account) so unquestionably there are drastic differences but fundamentally they aren’t in different worlds.

    I have 30 pharmacists and 25-30 physicians that work (or in the docs cases are independent contractors) for me and the way I negotiate with them isn’t all that different than the way Pete would negotiate with his players. The docs are like star players. They can pretty much go anywhere they want and find work in this province so that’s always a challenge. But at the same I time I have to be careful not to get bled dry by “little gives”. Because I refuse to get caught making special deals (one of my organizational pillars) I multiply any decision I make (doctor demands a 1% reduction on their overhead) by 25x because I’ll have to roll that out to the other docs too. So if a “little give” costs me 10k when multiplied by 25x I need to consider if making this give is worth 250k. Usually it’s not and if a doctor walks because they can do better down the street I wish them well and get back out there working on filling that spot because the sanctity of the contract is everything.

    Here’s the key. Because I’m not running the Edmonton Oilers of the pharmacy/medical centre world, I have confidence I can replace pretty much anyone in my organization. We’re not the Patriots (in that there are lineups to work here) but people aren’t rats on the Titanic dying to get off the ship.

    Teams could have policies that they don’t give out NMC’s because they hurt the team. My policy might reflect (what I think) is NHL hockey team economics in that I’d refuse to have more than 2 NMC’s or perhaps not give them unless someone is in the top 3 on the team payroll; but whatever, the point is that you create the pillars that you think will make you a top organization and stick with them no matter what.

    The Oilers think they have to keep overpaying Drake Caggiula. They think they have to keep giving out NMCs to Kris Russell. They think they have to “do solids” for Eric Gryba. They do this because they think that will help players and agents see this as a good organization.

    But players are smarter than we give them credit for and agents are really bright too, and they see this for what it really is; a gong-show organization that makes random decisions based on bad information and continues to wander the desert after a dozen years of futility.

    Fix the organization. Stop making bad decisions. Field a good team for a good, long while and all of the other stuff goes away and players and agents will be willing to come there for competitive deals not “special” ones.

  178. VOR says:

    –hudson–,

    I think it could take a long time to integrate data driven sub-boards into the preparation of the big board.

    There are many reasons for my scepticism. But let me start by saying I think every team should use data dashboards like canuckarmy produces and turn them into draft boards. Scouts should never be allowed to see them until after they’ve prepared a “seen him good” board lest we introduce new biases.

    Every team should make their scouts use a score card to rate each player’s tool kit. So the scout learns to look for the same things, in the same order every time. Which helps eliminate a major source of bias. And begins to get scouts thinking about players in terms of metrics. Then you have multiple scouts fill out score cards on the same player and use feedback and active learning to improve all the scouts.

    Even with those two steps in place scouts all know fame and fortune and continued employment depends to a large extent on their ability to see what other scouts cannot.

    Scouts and scouting culture value stories like the following. A scout is in a drafty arena thousands of miles from home. He is systematically rating two teams draft eligible players using a scoring card system. He is giving this kid 5s and 6s out of 10 on the score card and doodling in the margins of the card. Then he glances down. He has drawn a blazing star with a perfect 10 inscribed inside it. The few other scouts that saw the kid saw that he lacked any elite skill. Only one scout realized all those 5s and 6s made a perfect 10. The kid was Nick Lidstrom.

    In a culture of narrative you will need scouts to start building stats into their narratives and that process will take time.

    Eventually scouts will use data driven analysis and biomechanics in their narratives.

    I can’t currently imagine any scout going, “This kid, God is he fast. The bio-mechanical analysis of his skating shows he is in the 99th percentile on all 18 commonly measured dimensions of skating. And he can do it with the puck on his stick.

    “He is made of Indian rubber. He is going to have a lot fewer injuries and a much higher utilization rate as a result of having thicker than normal tendons. That is genetic of course.

    “He really exploded when he got top six minutes. The biomechanical analysis of his shot shows that while he is only in the 90th percentile for shot speed metrics and 85th for speed of release he is 99+ percentile for complexity of release. He is going to fool a lot of NHL goalies.

    “He was my sleeper pick. Then he kills the combine. Just kills it. Now he has many teams wondering. That no arm jump, and his standing long scream speed and his Wingate. Wow. Blazing fast and impossibly fit. Well he is a great young sprinter and we know that correlates to on ice skating performance. He is a ferocious competitor on the track and just refuses to quit.

    “On the other hand the more you look at his underlying metrics the more problems you see. Though some of them improved radically when he got more ice time he is only 60th Percentile in weighted possession and outcome metrics. He often looks really panicked in his own end. But then again he is really young for this draft and he is really poised in the offensive zone.

    “The thing that clinches it for me is how few EVS points he gets. Normally you see that and you know the kid relies on power play time. Not this kid. He picks up those other points short handed.

    “Most short handed scorers their HDC% are terrible. They cheat for offence. Not this kid. His HDC allowed on the penalty kill is the lowest of all draft eligible players and he allows 25% of the chances his teammates do when he is off the ice. He is easily the best penalty killer in terms of scoring chances against measured to date.

    “Other side of the equation his zone exit numbers are absurdly bad. 20% under control. Horrible confidence problem. Zone entries he is 90% under control. Most teams just back up and give him the line.

    “So with patience we are talking a top six forward with a 200 foot game and a truly amazing ability to fool goalies. Worst case, a penalty killing savant who struggles to break even in GS% and needs seriously skewed O-zone starts to thrive. I rank him 25th on my board.”

    That’s Liam Foudy by the way that I used for the template.

    When scouts start to talk like that data driven boards will start having a real place in the draft war room. Until then I think most data is just for show.

  179. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Stupid question.But isnt asking for the no trade destinations of contracts standard operating procedure each offseason.I thought players with partial NTCs had to submit their list each off season.I may be entirely wrong.

    Some teams never ask.

  180. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    ArmchairGM,

    Sure if you want to completely ignore his almost 300 Ahl games and almost 200 NHL games for a 7 game sample size. Go right ahead.
    You make it sound like we have absolutely no data on this player

    Shall we look at those numbers then, or would you prefer to use innuendo to make your point?

    2014-15, 65pg, 5v5, WOWY’s vis-a-vis most common linemate Jay McClement

    CF%, together / Malone / McClement
    43.80 48.67 40.27

    FF%
    45.25 49.52 41.82

    SF%
    46.03 51.68 42.86

    GF%
    43.75 33.33 40.00

    SCF%
    41.03 43.93 39.42

    HDCF%
    47.62 54.55 39.29

    HDGF%
    44.44 42.86 27.27

    OZ faceoff %
    41.90

    2015-16, 57gp, 5v5, WOWY’s vis-a-vis most common linemate Jay McClement

    CF%, together / Malone / McClement
    49.02 56.88 38.51

    FF%
    47.00 57.89 38.81

    SF%
    47.65 58.23 42.58

    GF%
    33.33 37.50 16.67

    SCF%
    45.92 53.25 39.86

    HDCF%
    43.56 48.28 43.75

    HDGF%
    11.11 40.00 12.50

    OZ faceoff %
    44.17

    He has a history of making those around him better. Looks like an NHLer to me, although his most common linemate clearly isn’t.

  181. leadfarmer says:

    knighttown,

    Yeah kind of funny that you deal with physician contracts cause I was going to use that as another atypical example in my previous post. Those are always unfavorable to the employer compared to what people expect from most businesses. The employer has to honor the contract while I can walk away from my physician contract at any minute. No employer wants a physician that doesn’t want to be there so they don’t pursue breach of contract against docs (keep in mind this is US) Now they are not responsible to transfer the contract when you choose to leave and you have to return your bonuses but it’s somewhere in the continuum of what people expect business world to be like and how it varies in industries
    But these guaranteed NHL contracts are ridiculous. How does NFL get away with non guaranteed contracts.
    If Lucic wants to leave his contract should be ripped up

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    From accounts (Stauffer), Barrett Hayton is rising in rankings and could be in the top 10.

    That would be fantastic if he went in the top 10 and Whalstrom (or Bouchard) drops.

    I won’t believe it until I see it.

    It would not be fantastic if the Oilers take him at 10 – the might.

  183. knighttown says:

    Side: If you were GM your job is to construct a team that can win. If you replace Gryba’s spot on the team immediately with a better player that will benefit your organization in the long run, isn’t that a win? Aren’t you doing your job?

    100%. If you can upgrade you do what you can to do so. I don’t think they plan on using their cash to bring in an 8-10 defenseman. I think they think they have plenty of d depth and plan on using the money to buy wingers but that isn’t your question.

    If they intended to upgrade on Eric Gryba…

    In scenario 1 (well run organization) you bury Gryba as far down as you feel you have to. He’d be a 9-10 for me and would likely play some NHL games but a few people around here are worried about him taking ice time from AHL kids so loan him out or press box him in Bako. Anyway, in this scenario you have the full resources of the Cap to find a better Eric Gryba.

    In scenario 2 you’ve moved on from Gryba but now you have 300k less in cap space to upgrade on Gryba.

    In my scenario I can shop in the 1 million dollar range for a #6-8 defenseman meaning I can find someone to slot in above Keegan Lowe. In your scenario you need to find one for 700k so arguably, another Keegan Lowe.

    And related, you would be shocked how much #8-10 defensemen play in the NHL these days.

    I ran the numbers a few years ago and that year Jason Strudwick played more (started as a #7?) than all but a couple of the forwards; including guys like Hemsky. Defensemen get hurt more but more importantly, when they are in the lineup they play WAY more than forwards…often 15-18 minutes even for the bottom pair.

    When I’m GM I’ll have NHL ready defensemen being paid NHL salaries in the AHL because they will play.

  184. npanciroli says:

    I don’t see it with Hayton. Obviously I’ve never watched him play but his numbers scream chasing the next Bergeron. Like we used to do with Lucic.

  185. Rondo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I think Oilers will take Hayton at #10 if the top 9 go as expected. I think it would be good pick.

  186. knighttown says:

    leadfarmer:
    knighttown,

    Yeah kind of funny that you deal with physician contracts cause I was going to use that as another atypical example in my previous post.Those are always unfavorable to the employer compared to what people expect from most businesses.The employer has to honor the contract while I can walk away from my physician contract at any minute.No employer wants a physician that doesn’t want to be there so they don’t pursue breach of contract against docs (keep in mind this is US)Now they are not responsible to transfer the contract when you choose to leave and you have to return your bonuses but it’s somewhere in the continuum of what people expect business world to be like and how it varies in industries

    That is very interesting indeed. Docs definitely have the power up here too, as they should. I think they’re grossly underpaid. It would shock people to know how little some family docs make (at least in NS) once overhead is paid.

    Anyway, the leverage here is their billing number. The NS government doesn’t just allow docs to practice anywhere so if a doc leaves me to go across the street I don’t get to recruit a new one as there is no new “need”. I now have to adjust for life with one less doc contributing to overhead.

  187. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Honestly Looks like 2 guys that don’t belong in the NHL to me. That GF% varies from trash to replacement level.

  188. ArmchairGM says:

    –hudson–:
    The Canucks just gave out $1.475M for a 12 point player.
    https://twitter.com/sportsnetirf/status/1010217169181790210

    In fairness he scored 19 goals and 32 points the year before. Seems to be a much better bet – on a ONE YEAR term, I might add – than Caggiula.

  189. Bag of Pucks says:

    Don’t get the need to take Chiarelli to the woodshed over $300k. There’s being cap efficient and then there’s being a bean counter.

    Your cap outlay can swing that much just by a player hitting a substantial bonus or not. Fair to say the team would’ve had to pay Connor a good chunk of change if he’d won the Hart instead of Hall?

    As other posters have said, there’s a price to be paid on the pro player procurement front if you start valuing $s over humans to the nth degree.

  190. --hudson-- says:

    VOR,

    Fantastic! It might be a scenario where a cutting edge team tries converting data analysts into scouts rather than converting scouts into data analysts.

  191. leadfarmer says:

    knighttown: That is very interesting indeed.Docs definitely have the power up here too, as they should.I think they’re grossly underpaid.It would shock people to know how little some family docs make (at least in NS) once overhead is paid.

    Anyway, the leverage here is their billing number.The NS government doesn’t just allow docs to practice anywhere so if a doc leaves me to go across the street I don’t get to recruit a new one as there is no new “need”.I now have to adjust for life with one less doc contributing to overhead.

    Yeah I don’t know how primary care docs do it. Most of them are foreign medical grads now in US for those reasons. The contracts vary as you go up the diva scale and money you bring in. I’m an interventional radiologist so I’m a ways up the diva scale but nowhere close to the top. But if you look for example at some interventional cardiologist contracts some go full Mariah Carey

  192. knighttown says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    From accounts (Stauffer), Barrett Hayton is rising in rankings and could be in the top 10.

    That would be fantastic if he went in the top 10 and Whalstrom (or Bouchard) drops.

    I won’t believe it until I see it.

    It would not be fantastic if the Oilers take him at 10 – the might.

    I really feel like we need one more riser like Hayton. I have the consensus top 10 and would be happy with any of the 3-through-10 guys; Kotkaniemi, Boqvist, Hughes, Bouchard, Wahlstrom, Zadina, Tkachuk or Dobson.

    I expect the Oilers have this as a top 9 and have Boqvist at 12 or lower.

    I think they have Smith at 10 and Hayton at 11.

    So we need one more riser (Hayton) so that we don’t end up with Smith or Hayton. I’ve given up the Boqvist dream but would be much happier with any of those other names than Smith.

  193. --hudson-- says:

    npanciroli:
    I don’t see it with Hayton. Obviously I’ve never watched him play but his numbers scream chasing the next Bergeron. Like we used to do with Lucic.

    The mitigating factor with Hayton seems to be the quality of his teammates. He’s the youngest of the bunch so they’re saying he’s going to blow up next season when the 19 year olds move on. It does add a degree of uncertainty though.

  194. Truth says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    From accounts (Stauffer), Barrett Hayton is rising in rankings and could be in the top 10.

    That would be fantastic if he went in the top 10 and Whalstrom (or Bouchard) drops.

    I won’t believe it until I see it.

    It would not be fantastic if the Oilers take him at 10 – the might.

    This is Stauffer laying the groundwork for justifying the Oilers reaching to select Hayton at this spot. It’s an absolutely horrible pick considering there are easily 10 better prospects no matter how the first 9 picks shake out. He’s mentioned it before:

    @Bob_Stauffer
    Jun 18
    More
    Projected top 9 for NHL Draft:

    #1. Dahlin-BUF
    #2. Svechnikov-CAR
    #3. Kotkaniemi-MTL
    #4. Dobson-OTT
    #5. Tkachuk-ARI
    #6. Hughes-DET
    #7. Bouchard-VAN
    #8. Wahlstrom-CHI
    #9. Zadina-NYR

    Leaving EDM one of Smith, Hayton,Kravtsov or Boqvist at #10.
    I believe they take Hayton or Smith

  195. --hudson-- says:

    ArmchairGM: In fairness he scored 19 goals and 32 points the year before. Seems to be a much better bet – on a ONE YEAR term, I might add – than Caggiula.

    Neither contract is a solid bet and the Canucks have more cap space as well. I’ll cheer for Drake while not being his biggest fan was r fan of the way the Oilers have developed/deployed him.

  196. Rondo says:

    –hudson–,

    Hayton needs to work on his skating but I think type of player he is that won’t be a problem. Hayton is the type of player you need to win. Many facets to building a team . You don’t win with an all-star team.

  197. knighttown says:

    leadfarmer: Yeah I don’t know how primary care docs do it. Most of them are foreign medical grads now in US for those reasons.The contracts vary as you go up the diva scale and money you bring in.I’m an interventional radiologist so I’m a ways up the diva scale but nowhere close to the top.But if you look for example at some interventional cardiologist contracts some go full Mariah Carey

    Dude, as they should, imo. I’m a pharmacist by training but what you guys do is pretty remarkable.

    While the rest of us are having fun in our undergrads you guys are working your asses off and pulling top 1% marks to get considered for med school. Then you go through schooling and training almost no one could comprehend.

    And when it’s all said and done you get the privilege of making life and death decision 50 times a day. Is that shadow cancer or did Kevin in radiology get chicken wing sauce on the Xray machine again?

    If you can pluck cancer cells out of my kids brain with a baloon attached to a coat hanger, as it appears you can, you can have all the money. And red M&M’s only in your dressing room if that’s what you desire.

  198. Side says:

    knighttown: 100%.If you can upgrade you do what you can to do so.I don’t think they plan on using their cash to bring in an 8-10 defenseman.I think they think they have plenty of d depth and plan on using the money to buy wingers but that isn’t your question.

    That pretty much was my question as I think they will do the same as well.

    All I care about, is if at the end of the day, if the 2018-2019 50 man roster looks better without Gryba than with Gryba, and that 300k this year and next year didn’t screw the Oilers over on a deal that would bring in a player that makes a huge impact, I’m not going to lose any sleep over it.

  199. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Please baby Jesus let it be Wahlstrom.Wooooot!!!

    Having d play their offside seems to short curcuit coaches.Even Brodie who is clearly better on the right (turning) is forced to play his off side.

    I know Chia is saying stay the course but im sure the river boat gambler in him is trying to make deals

    If Barrett Hayton goes in the top 10 and Whalstrom drops to us, well, I don’t have words to describe how great that would be.

    When Chiarelli takes Ty Smith over Whalstrom, well, I don’t have words to describe how awful that would be (although I don’t mind Smith as a pick in general).

  200. OriginalPouzar says:

    SkatinginSand:
    T0ML,

    This could have easily been accomplished by loaning Gryba to another organization, as they did with Fayne last year.

    Of all of Chiarelli’s strange moves, this one has got me completely baffled.

    That wouldn’t work, I don’t think – I think he was loaned to the AHL team, he could play on their NHL team.

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