Another Park, Another Sunday

by Lowetide

On Friday afternoon at five, a rumor hit the Al Gore. Edmonton was apparently in talks with the Boston Bruins, with Oscar Klefbom and No. 10 overall possibly heading east. Coming west? Torey Krug, Danton Heinen and or Anders Bjork. Whether it was real or not, the rumor died on the vine with the Evan Bouchard selection. Oilers added five prospects via the draft and one through trade while in Dallas. Plenty of work to do this summer, but a productive draft weekend.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

CURRENT PROSPECT LIST

  • The Leftorium fever is broken! After what seems like a decade, the Oilers have more RHD bubbling under than LHD.
  • I’d say the top three defensemen left and right are prospects we can project to the next level, at least for an audition period. Joel Persson is kind of a wild card, John Marino looks promising but there may be some running in place, and Phil Kemp is matriculating.
  • Edmonton went into the weekend with one “A” prospect (in my opinion), Kailer Yamamoto. I believe Evan Bouchard is also an “A” prospect, your mileage on one or both may vary.
  • The second tier has (again my opinion) one more prospect in the addition of Ryan McLeod. For me, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Kirill Maksimov and Cooper Marody are also in that group. There are others who may well emerge (Filip Berglund, William Lagesson, Stuart Skinner, Graham McPhee, new arrival Olivier Rodrigue) but we’re going to have to see them spike.
  • I have no idea where to slot Hayden Hawkey, but will say he has a fabulous name for the sport and the position he plays.
  • One full year is a good time frame to get a view on progress. Looking back on last year, the two prospects who have moved forward the most are Kirill Maksimov and William Lagesson.
  • The best non-drafted newcomers in the last 12 months are Cooper Marody, Joel Persson and Cameron Hebig.
  • Graham McPhee and Aapeli Rasanen are two players to watch this winter. It’s easy to forget about them, and it isn’t like they’re scoring at Fernando Pisani (when he was in college) levels, but McPhee took a nice step forward and perhaps Rasanen will do the same.

RANKINGS

Definitely a three prospect draft, interesting to see Bouchard’s rankings having more range than one might expect from a likely top 10 selection. Part of that may come from his age (he is a 1999) something that also impacts McLeod (who was universally ranked in the final third of the first round). Rodrigue’s rankings are fairly consistent and Steve Kournianos probably has you ranked somewhere, that guy is thorough.

QUALIFYING OFFERS

The Oilers extended qualifying offers to Darnell Nurse, Ryan Strome and Anton Slepyshev yesterday, that’s news on several levels. Although the Nurse contract number remains uncertain, I think we might see Strome’s deal at $3 million for one season. Slepyshev’s transaction is merely paperwork based on what we know, they are retaining his rights.

50-MAN ROSTER

  • Still massive amounts of room to sign free agents, I wonder if we see a bunch of secondary signings on July 1 ala one year ago.
  • You can see the roster as it may appear this fall, there are jobs at No. 2R, No. 3R, No. 4C and No. 7D.
  • There’s lots of work to do, but as of now new faces on opening night might include Mikko Koskinen, Keegan Lowe, Cooper Marody.

OILERS 2018 FREE AGENTS

  • G Nick Ellis RFA. Retired.
  • G Laurent Brossoit UFA. Unlikely to return.
  • LD Darnell Nurse RFA. Qualified
  • RD Matt Benning RFA. Signed. 
  • LD Yohann Auvitu UFA. KHL bound.
  • RD Mark Fayne UFA. He’s done with the Oilers.
  • LD Keegan Lowe UFA. Signed. 
  • LD Dillon Simpson UFA. Appears headed to free agency.
  • LD Joey Laleggia UFA. Appears headed to free agency.
  • LD Ben Betker RFA. Not Qualified. 
  • RC Ryan Strome RFA. Qualified. 
  • RC Kyle Platzer RFA. Not Qualified.
  • LC Grayson Downing UFA. Appears headed to free agency.
  • L Mike Cammalleri UFA. Appears headed to free agency.
  • L Drake Caggiula RFA. Signed. 
  • L Braden Christoffer RFA. Signed an AHL deal. 
  • R Anton Slepyshev RFA. Qualified.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen RFA. Not Qualified. 
  • R Patrick Russell. RFA. Signed. 
  • R Brian Ferlin UFA. Appears headed to free agency.

Dillon Simpson is the most likely of the pending free agents to be signed based on Edmonton’s own history. His skill set is duplicated by Keegan Lowe, and if we’re honest Lowe might be the better defenseman at this time.

I think this is the best road, to be honest. Every NHL team has five slots for pro goalies (two NHL, two AHL, usually ECHL starter) and ideally you have three younger men pushing for NHL work. As I see it, the depth chart this winter will be Cam Talbot with Mikko Koskinen in the NHL; Condors goalies Shane Starrett and Dylan Wells; ECHL starter Stuart Skinner. I also think Wells and Skinner will shuffle often to make sure both get a lot of work.

HAYDEN HAWKEY

His resume looks good, one year from the pressure point of signing him. Providence goalies appear to be an itch the Oilers must scratch, as Nick Ellis was the starter before Hawkey. Jon Gillies was the goalie in Providence before Ellis and Hawkey, he was highly touted and hasn’t worked out as a pro (yet). Maybe the Friars suppress dangerous shots, or maybe the shot counter is a madman, or maybe Hayden Hawkey is an excellent prospect. We wait.

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hags9k

Thanks to LT and many posters (Jaxon, Gerta) for great draft coverage.

I just have to get one thing off my chest…

Bridging Nurse is a mistake. Lock him up now at a better hit.

Ok I feel better now, carry on.

Kinger_Oil.redux

VOR,

– Vor – thanks for the story about Kluzak.

– I don’t think my point about Harvard was clear: I wasn’t calling him out for going to Harvard, but rather for the Oil choosing between LHD, and scoring winger (both needs), and one says: “I think I’m ready for the NHL next year”, and the other one says: “I want to get an education at Harvard”, I think the tie goes to the guy who wants to be in the NHL next year

– Don’t get me wrong, getting into Harvard is a great feat, Walstrom must be an amazing guy. But as we’ve seen with Hamilton in Calgary: smart guys are the minority in hockey

– So between Walstrom and Bouchard: I applaud the Oil for making what I think is the right choice, given all the available information.

Marc

VOR,

I don’t.

But I do know that Dartmouth has produced more than twice as many NHLers than our Crimson rivals.

Go Big Green! 🙂

Marc

Pierre LeBrun

Verified account

@PierreVLeBrun
12h12 hours ago
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Carlson contract year by year: 18/19, $6.5M SB, $5.5M salary, total $12 M; 19/20, $6.5M SB, $5.5 M salary, $12 M total; 20/21, $2 M SB, $6M salary, $8M total; 21/22, $5M SB, $3M salary, $8M total; 22/23 through 25/26 seasons, $2M SB, $4M salary, $6M total for each year

Another buyout resistant contract.

No way Washington ends up regretting that…

who

OriginalPouzar: The cap savings for a player on a one-way contract that is in the minors is equal to the league minimum salary plus $375K.Last year the league minimum was $650K I believe so it will be around that this year – so, essentially, the cap hit for Montoya will be apx $50K while he’s in the minors.

I wouldn’t make that trade above – I think Cooper Marody is going to be a diamond in the rough – a solid 3/4C at the NHL level within a year or two.

Skinner has one year left and then will need a new contract and will likely be even more expensive.

You wouldn’t sacrifice Marody to dump 5 years of Lucic?
I think I do that in a heartbeat.

OriginalPouzar

OilHub: Hey guys, long time lurker.. very seldom poster!
First of to LT, thanks so much for such an incredible atmosphere and “community”, as someone else earlier said there are a lot of incredibly knowledge posters.
Thanks

Professor or anyone way smarter than I regarding Cap crap..
If LB is gone and we waiver Montoya (who doesn’t get claimed in this senario), what would the cap savings be?
Could we also then trade Milan( 800-1.5 retained) Cooper Marody and Hawden Hawkey to Carolina for Skinner and a lesser prospect?

Thoughts….? Again thanks for your work here and the Athletic.

The cap savings for a player on a one-way contract that is in the minors is equal to the league minimum salary plus $375K. Last year the league minimum was $650K I believe so it will be around that this year – so, essentially, the cap hit for Montoya will be apx $50K while he’s in the minors.

I wouldn’t make that trade above – I think Cooper Marody is going to be a diamond in the rough – a solid 3/4C at the NHL level within a year or two.

Skinner has one year left and then will need a new contract and will likely be even more expensive.

Soup Fascist

VOR: I am sure you know the story of the most famous Harvard first rounder of all time, Gord Kluzak.

Born in Climax, Saskatchewan he attended high school in Wilcox, That would be Athol Murray College of Notre Dame for those who don’t know the program.

Then he played for two years for the Billings Bighorns. At which point he blew his knee out and was out of hockey for more than a year.

This is about the time it became apparent Gord was a bit different from other junior players. He was obsessed with economic theory. He once was asked who his favorite author was and without missing a beat says Thorstein Veblen and proceeds to quote from Theory of the Leisure Class.

Despite the knee problems Harry Sinden drafted Gord#1 OV. Turned out Gord had the game but 11 knee surgeries later he was one of the most famous draft busts of all time. You could let that define you or you could do what Gord did.

He got a degree in Economics from Harvard and worked for the State Lottery. Then he got an MBA from Harvard and became a quant for Goldman Sachs. Last I heard he was working on a PhD from Harvard in Economics. He’s got some years to go but you’ve got to admire his drive. And he does colour commentary to keep his hand in hockey. And he has a unique perspective as you might imagine.

I guess what I am saying is having high academic aspirations and the mental tools to thrive in an academic environment doesn’t preclude a career in professional sports.

Kluzak sounds like the kind of guy who would rather go to a museum than to a Moxies. What a pathetic loser.

OriginalPouzar

Scungilli Slushy:
I believe Bouchard is only eligible for one more junior year and then would go to the A

He could go back to junior as an over-ager in his draft plus 2 year but he will be eligible for the AHL at that point which would clearly be the better place for him.

Its not really junior eligibility that’s the issue but eligibility for the AHL (must turn 20 by December 31).

Richard S.S.

Bouchard’s 2017 Season was good but a comparison of points and minutes would really help.
His 2018 Season was amazing. But at some point in the Season, other Teams will know he’s the “big guy”, the one they need to stop. That makes it sure he gets his nine games this year if healthy. Of that I have no doubts.

OilHub

Professor Q:
I think G depth is very good. It’s just a battle to figure out best playing arrangements and staggering promotions properly.

Brossoit likely gone (that’s why I was wondering about a possible trade earlier; maybe even without the Talbot rumours), Ellis retired and moved on, etc. means that grabbing the best G prospect in the draft in Rodrigue (family notwithstanding) and trading for Hawkey seem like pretty good bets to wait a few years for. Or maybe they impress earlier!

Hey guys, long time lurker.. very seldom poster!
First of to LT, thanks so much for such an incredible atmosphere and “community”, as someone else earlier said there are a lot of incredibly knowledge posters.
Thanks

Professor or anyone way smarter than I regarding Cap crap..
If LB is gone and we waiver Montoya (who doesn’t get claimed in this senario), what would the cap savings be?
Could we also then trade Milan( 800-1.5 retained) Cooper Marody and Hawden Hawkey to Carolina for Skinner and a lesser prospect?

Thoughts….? Again thanks for your work here and the Athletic.

Richard S.S.

Bouchard had the 4th most defensive points in 2016 and possibly less minutes than the top three. He played on a loaded Team. So how does he rank on his team in the overall in points and minutes. It fine to say he didn’t have a good year in 2016. Please use more data when it’s more than just an opinion.

Professor Q

Scungilli Slushy:
I believe Bouchard is only eligible for one more junior year and then would go to the A

He’s technically eligible for 2 (possibly 3…) more CHL years (OHL), but the 2nd year would also be when he’s eligible for AHL full-time so those years are negligible.

OHL and QMJHL can have players aged from 16-21, while WHL is a bit different with players aged from 15-20 (there are caveats in all Leagues as to how many Underagers – 15 & 16 yos – and Overagers – 20 & 21 yos – you can have and play). Barring exceptional status, of course.

rickithebear

VOR:
Patriot s & now Lions draft players with mechanisms & base repeatability for championship based roster structures.

This year thier was a slight decrease in goalie equipment size.
Which leads to a more dramatic increase in open shot area in net Elevation.
A reduction in HD:LD ratio.
Increases the shot success distance for HD.
A dramatic jump in goals per game.

You select for a culture that works
But you must be adaptive to change.

But thier is an approach that work by very structure of the game.
K. Lowe stated years ago that they chased forwards early in the Katz era.
Cause they could not afford to keep them before.

But Quickly figured you build down the middle.
Goal – 2D – C
Always will.

smellyglove

Woodguy – thanks for your very solid work on enumerating prospect season comparables for Bouchard. Very illuminating. So far, what do we know? Evan Bouchard hit the ball out of the park in his 18 yo season. His 17 yo season is comparable to Nurse. His 16 yo season is lacking. Offensively speaking of course.

We know the London Knights won the Memorial Cup in 2016, during Bouchard’s 16 yo season. Some have speculated that he wasn’t getting ice time, which could impact his totals. Here are some notable D on the team, who exceeded Bouchard in point totals during the regular season:

Olli Juolevi
2016 round 1 #5 overall by Vancouver Canucks

Victor Mete
2016 round 4 #100 overall by Montréal Canadiens

Brandon Crawley
2017 round 4 #123 overall by New York Rangers

Chris Martenet
2015 round 4 #103 overall by Dallas Stars

Nicolas Mattinen
2016 round 6 #179 overall by Toronto Maple Leafs

So, during the 2015-16 OHL season, Bouchard was playing with/behind players who were a) older and b) destined to be drafted in the NHL. Evan’s boxscores were very lacking during that season, including for the playoffs and memorial cup, he was the #4 point-getting Dman on his team.

Oz

VOR,

So BPA could be defined as “fit”, and by extension the oilers achieved that with their first round selection.
BPA is likely different between each team

VOR

I wanted to talk about my concept of fit.

As an example of a team that uses fit in making drafting decisions, consider the Philadelphia Flyers.

At 14 they take Joel Farabee. I know there was a lot of talk about him being Sam Gagner. Well sure if Sam Gagner ever played F1 or Captained a National Team, or was a total prick to play against or did the heavy lifting so other people could cheat for offence. Philadelphia drafts forwards who play F1, do the heavy lifting, and are hard to play against.

Then they take the kid from Thayer Academy. In an interview he says if you take the puck from him he’ll break your ankle to get it back. A kid who produces big numbers while playing F1. He has a rep for never giving up on the play.

Then they take a defensive defenceman Adam Ginning who se comparable is Adam Larsson. Not as much offence but similar styles. But he is actually a really good skater.

A pattern emerges after a while. Fast, hard to play against, insanely competitive. It is like there are drafting a team of Radko Gudas types. With some Sean Couturiers thrown in.

They aren’t drafting BPA. They are drafting the BPA that fits their culture, playing style and development system.

Richard S.S.

Draft Picks who go the “Education Route” play a bit of a shorter Season and fewer games. At least in the “minors” or in the AHL prospects play a similar season and a similar number of games as the NHL should/does.

VOR

frjohnk: Moore?

Yup, Dominic Moore. One of five Harvard Crimson players to have NHL careers. Anyone know the other four?

€√¥£€^$

Woodguy v2.0:
I used to look at IPP for CHL Dmen quite closely as it not a bad indicator of future NHL success based on my own years of looking at the IPP of NHL Dmen from the CHL.Its not perfect though.

IPP in this case is the % of total team goals the player got a point on.Pro-rated for the number of games the player actually played.

I also use age and not draft year as age is more important imo.

Here’s a few Dmen and their IPP at ages 16, 17, 18 and 19.

The age is determined on Dec 31st of the season.Iie) Doughty turned 17 in December 2006 so his 17 year old year was his draft -1, not his draft year.Same for Bouchard (Oct birthday)

Like any birthday cut off, its a bit arbitrary but the player spends the majority of the season “at that age” so its pretty fair imo.

Note: IPP over 20 as a 17 is usually good and was the indicator I’d look for if a Dman was going to have a decent NHL career and over 25% at 17 is pretty rare.

16 year old year
Ellis 25%
Barrie 20%
Doughty 15%
Dumba 11%
Hamilton 9%
Bouchard 8%
Nurse 6%

17 year old year
Doughty 35%
Ellis 34%
Dumba 30%
Hamilton 22%
Barrie 21%
Nurse 16%
Bouchard 15%

18 year old year
Bouchard 38%
Barrie 38%
Hamilton 34%
Doughty 28% (injury)
Ellis 26% (injury)
Dumba 25%
Nurse 20%

19 year old year
Ellis – 43%
Hamilton – 40%
Barrie – 33%
Dumba – 23% (26 gp only – injury and NHL games played as well)
Nurse – 18%
Bouchard – TBA
Doughty – NHL

My hope is that London’s penchant for playing their best players half the game is what stunted Bouchard’s IPP in his 16 and 17 year old years.

His IPP in his 18 year old year is in a nice range, but its not adjusted for TOI so the same London penchant might be inflating him a bit.I don’t know.

Players can be late developers so his 17 year old year isn’t an OMG thing, but I’d feel better if it were higher for sure.

If Bouchard is for real (and I think he is) I expect around 40% from him this year barring injury.

We’ll see.

I really should use Word to write my post and then cut and paste, lost everything I just wrote when I hit the touch pad, grrrrr.

I will abbreviate what I wrote.

I am concerned with Bouchard’s dzone coverage, in a Youtube video he didn’t look good, but context is everything, perhaps he was ill or fatigued. These snippets were taken from several games at the end of the year and in the playoffs. But we apparently have a dman whisperer in the fold now, along with Mr. Coffey, so he should be in decent hands. We will know pretty quick. Is anyone going to watch development camp this week?

I also took at look at Doughty vs Bouchard’s OHL careers and honestly, Doughty had very little help on his teams. He had Ryan Malone as a 20 year old in his 16 yr old season and a 102 game NHL dman named Ryan Parent on his team as the only players of note. I didn’t even look at Bouchard’s 16 yr old roster, because London was the Mem Cup Champs that season.

As far as 17 year old seasons, Doughty had even less help and led his team in scoring by 12 pts. There were 4 drafted players on Guelph’s roster, aside from Doughty these players played a total of 1 NHL game. Bouchard, however, played on a team with 7 drafted defensemen, most notably Victor Mete, who played 49 NHL games as a 19 yr old and Olli Juolevi, who played in 39 SM Liiga games as a 19 yr old this season.

In his 18 yr old season, Doughty again had no help with 5 on this roster eventually being NHL draft picks, but 3 (Peter Holland, Taylor Beck and Ben Chariot) were in their 16 yr old seasons.

Not quite the same for Bouchard this past year, but after 36 games much of the experienced forward talent had been traded and Bouchard was basically left on his own to lead his team. Based on this it wouldn’t take too much of a leap of logic to think that if he had more than 25 games of Max Jones (18 goals), 27 games of Robert Thomas (20 goals), 35 games of Sam Militec (16 goals) and 36 games of Cliff Pu (16 goals), we’d likely be looking at a 100+ point season and a top 5 pick (and who knows what impact this would have had on Liam Foudy’s draft position).

Anyway, food for thought…..

rickithebear

WG:
Early on at this site thier were prospects between 2008 to 2011 that had me question thier offensive ability and supported by the blog view.
I thought to look at thier % of line even offence.
I never look at the team as a whole.
You are bound by the ability of your linemates, opposition faced which has a baseline.

Scungilli Slushy

I believe Bouchard is only eligible for one more junior year and then would go to the A

frjohnk

VOR:
Can anyone tell me the most NHL games played by a Harvard Grad?

First hint: he’s played for ten teams.

Second hint: he was drafted 99th OV.

Third hint: he missed more than a year of NHL hockey nursing his dying wive.

Fourth hint: he has played over 800 games in the NHL.

Moore?

VOR

Can anyone tell me the most NHL games played by a Harvard Grad?

First hint: he’s played for ten teams.

Second hint: he was drafted 99th OV.

Third hint: he missed more than a year of NHL hockey nursing his dying wive.

Fourth hint: he has played over 800 games in the NHL.

rickithebear

So while thier is Personel driven angst to chase even offence that is not the issue.
I continue to push for dmen who maintain HD def performance while chasing transition passing.
A dman on pp. who is not a QB but has a SH% comparable to forwards on PP.
Running a proper PK system.

VOR

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Just catching up on the whole draft weekend: LT thank for all you do:

– Bouchard: I have no doubt if Sek circa 2016 aka turd-polisher shows up this camp, then Bouchard has a real shot: temptation will be too great, the Oil be all oily in “rushing” 1st every chance

Klef-Larsson
Nurse-Benning
Sek-Bouchard
Russel

– I’m glad they took Evan over Wahlstrom: whose apparently going to Harvard.Smart kid, and what if he decides to graduate?How many Harvard 1st rounders are there?

– The Rodrigue move reminded me of my fantasy football league draft.After a certain amount of rounds, you look at the position players who are available and you decide not much there.Once the first guy starts drafting LB’s and D, the other teams follow suit: good read of market IMO

– Still bothers me a bit the Oil connection with the G though, but his Dad said all the right things about not wanting to be part of process, stepping out of room, etc: who knows.

– McLeod was consensus 1st round pick: seems like a good bet to replace Strome in a few years

– Drafting D, C’s and G’s: that’s how you build hockey teams.

I am sure you know the story of the most famous Harvard first rounder of all time, Gord Kluzak.

Born in Climax, Saskatchewan he attended high school in Wilcox, That would be Athol Murray College of Notre Dame for those who don’t know the program.

Then he played for two years for the Billings Bighorns. At which point he blew his knee out and was out of hockey for more than a year.

This is about the time it became apparent Gord was a bit different from other junior players. He was obsessed with economic theory. He once was asked who his favorite author was and without missing a beat says Thorstein Veblen and proceeds to quote from Theory of the Leisure Class.

Despite the knee problems Harry Sinden drafted Gord #1 OV. Turned out Gord had the game but 11 knee surgeries later he was one of the most famous draft busts of all time. You could let that define you or you could do what Gord did.

He got a degree in Economics from Harvard and worked for the State Lottery. Then he got an MBA from Harvard and became a quant for Goldman Sachs. Last I heard he was working on a PhD from Harvard in Economics. He’s got some years to go but you’ve got to admire his drive. And he does colour commentary to keep his hand in hockey. And he has a unique perspective as you might imagine.

I guess what I am saying is having high academic aspirations and the mental tools to thrive in an academic environment doesn’t preclude a career in professional sports.

rickithebear

It is everyone’s favourite class!
Goal Diff math!

This one goes out to Lead farmer.

Edmonton Oilers
Goals For type – 17/18 – 16/17 – 15/16 – 14/15
Even goals for – 172 – 172 – 141 – 134
Power play GF – 31 – 56 – 43 – 41
SH Goals for – 10 – 4 – 5 – 4
Our EN GF – 4 – 0 – 4 – 4
Opp EN GF – 11 – 10 – 5 – 6
Total goal for – 229 – 243 – 199 – 193
Goal for/gm – 2.79 – 2.96 – 2.43 – 2.35

Edmonton Oilers
Goals Against type – 17/18 – 16/17 – 15/16 – 14/15
Even goals against – 182- 146 – 176 – 182
Power play Goal A – 31 – 56 – 43 – 41
PK Goals Against – 5 – 5 – 7 – 7
Our EN G Against – 11 – 8 – 11 – 9
Opp EN G Against – 6 – 5 – 0 – 2
Total goal Against – 262 – 207 – 242 – 276
Goal against/gm – 3.20 – 2.52 – 2.95 – 3.37

Can we see any goal diff area were on its own it would have made a difference this year relative to team avg .

The answer is one.
It requires 0 Personel changes to get back in the playoffs.

It is called even HD defence.
3 years without we need 3gf to break even.
The 1 year with 1/2 the games need 2 gf and 1/2 need 3gf.

Lead you spouted for this last month.
I hoped you would ?
Look at were our goal diff failing was.

A clear example of HD change and its result.
Your anti HD is a joke.
But in that have a beer after (rugby/fight club) way. ?

OriginalPouzar

Rodrigue’s dad being in the organization is a non-factor – he is, by almost all accounts, the top goalie in the draft. Given the trade for yet another goalie after him, its pretty clear building goalie depth in the organization is important to the GM – grabing the top goalie available is a good way to do that.

He has two more years before he will be turning pro – good stagger with our existing pool of tenders.

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– I’m glad they took Evan over Wahlstrom: whose apparently going to Harvard.Smart kid, and what if he decides to graduate?How many Harvard 1st rounders are there?

Adam Fox plays at Harvard and he’s one of the top D prospects out there.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer:
Pretendergast,

Yeah but then you have to re-sign him in a year and then you need to give Talbot or another goalie money and then JP needs a contract.
I still stand by my we are 4 years, (it’s 3 years now from really competing). Cap will keep going up decreasing the Mcdavid and drai contracts. Need to keep drafting well and we’re waiting for Lucic compliance buyout Russell contract expiration and Sekera trade

Russell will either need to be traded or, more likely, bought out prior to the last year of his contract.

Given current organizational make-up, it would be egregious to protect him in the expansion draft as we’d be leaving unprotected an highly more valuable player.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Just catching up on the whole draft weekend: LT thank for all you do:

– Bouchard: I have no doubt if Sek circa 2016 aka turd-polisher shows up this camp, then Bouchard has a real shot: temptation will be too great, the Oil be all oily in “rushing” 1st every chance

Klef-Larsson
Nurse-Benning
Sek-Bouchard
Russel

– I’m glad they took Evan over Wahlstrom: whose apparently going to Harvard. Smart kid, and what if he decides to graduate? How many Harvard 1st rounders are there?

– The Rodrigue move reminded me of my fantasy football league draft. After a certain amount of rounds, you look at the position players who are available and you decide not much there. Once the first guy starts drafting LB’s and D, the other teams follow suit: good read of market IMO

– Still bothers me a bit the Oil connection with the G though, but his Dad said all the right things about not wanting to be part of process, stepping out of room, etc: who knows.

– McLeod was consensus 1st round pick: seems like a good bet to replace Strome in a few years

– Drafting D, C’s and G’s: that’s how you build hockey teams.

leadfarmer

Woogie63: If we have the same top 10 scorer in the NHL in 18/19 here are the differences in salaries.This is more than a variable.

McDavid $12.5M
Giroux $8.275M ($4.275M)
Kucherov $4.77M ($7.73M)
Malkin $9.5M ($3.0M)
Mackinnon $6.3M ($6.2M)
Hall $6M ($6.5M)
Kopitar $10M ($2.5M)
Kessel $8.0 ($4.5M) edit
Wheeler$5.6M ($6.9M)
Crosby $8.7M ($3.8M)

Guys who sign contracts 5 years ago always look cheaper than guys who sign contracts now and in turn look better than guys who sign in 5 years.

leadfarmer

Pretendergast,

Yeah but then you have to re-sign him in a year and then you need to give Talbot or another goalie money and then JP needs a contract.
I still stand by my we are 4 years, (it’s 3 years now from really competing). Cap will keep going up decreasing the Mcdavid and drai contracts. Need to keep drafting well and we’re waiting for Lucic compliance buyout Russell contract expiration and Sekera trade

Drew

Drew: Yes, I agree to a point as well. But MacD has no peer group if you look at recent contracts like Eichel’s 10M and the Drai 8.5M those are harder to live with. Others performance will occasionally come close to MacD but not consistently match it so all in all his is a single outlier. (in my opinion)

In terms of value to the organization, the MacD contract exceeds his performance on the ice. I believe that the other market access he provides while in the oiler silks add revenue $ to the OEG bottom line.

If I was Bruce Wayne id merrily skip all the way to the bank knowing I add this asset under control for 8 years.

I’d then take Chia out into the alley for the other terrible contracts he has saddled the team with. those are mistakes, the MacD contract is the cost of having the very best in your dressing room.
thank you for the very agreeable disagreement!

Drew

Woogie63: Yes, I agree to a point. But MacD has no peer group if you look at recent contracts like Eichel’s 10M and the Drai 8.5M those are harder to live with. Others performance will occasionally come close to MacD but not consistently match it so all in all his is a single outlier. (in my opinion)

In terms of value to the organization, the MacD contract exceeds his performance on the ice. I believe that the other market access he provides while in the oiler silks add revenue $ to the OEG bottom line.

If I was Bruce Wayne id merrily skip all the way to the bank knowing I add this asset under control for 8 years.

I’d then take Chia out into the alley for the other terrible contracts he has saddled the team with. those are mistakes, the MacD contract is the cost of having the very best in your dressing room.

Yes, I agree to a point as well. But MacD has no peer group if you look at recent contracts like Eichel’s 10M and the Drai 8.5M those are harder to live with. Others performance will occasionally come close to MacD but not consistently match it so all in all his is a single outlier. (in my opinion)

In terms of value to the organization, the MacD contract exceeds his performance on the ice. I believe that the other market access he provides while in the oiler silks add revenue $ to the OEG bottom line.

If I was Bruce Wayne id merrily skip all the way to the bank knowing I add this asset under control for 8 years.

I’d then take Chia out into the alley for the other terrible contracts he has saddled the team with. those are mistakes, the MacD contract is the cost of having the very best in your dressing room.

Thank you for the very agreeable disagreement! 🙂

Drew

Yes, I agree to a point. But MacD has no peer group if you look at recent contracts like Eichel’s 10M and the Drai 8.5M those are harder to live with. Others performance will occasionally come close to MacD but not consistently match it so all in all his is a single outlier. (in my opinion)

In terms of value to the organization, the MacD contract exceeds his performance on the ice. I believe that the other market access he provides while in the oiler silks add revenue $ to the OEG bottom line.

If I was Bruce Wayne id merrily skip all the way to the bank knowing I add this asset under control for 8 years.

I’d then take Chia out into the alley for the other terrible contracts he has saddled the team with. those are mistakes, the MacD contract is the cost of having the very best in your dressing room.

Woogie63

Drew: In the business’s I run I pay the top performers very very well and everyone else fairly,

if MacD is 10% overpaid (for argument’s sake) I would live with it. Russell is what 50 – 100% overpaid and has movement limitations, Lucic is 100% overpaid with limitations as well etc I fight those battles everyday not the MacD contract. His contract is a variable to be considered but not the problem we face today.

Also, the next contract for Hall, Mackinnon will look nothing like their current one. If you think that the issue with MacD contract is the same as the other “errors” made by Chia I respectfully disagree.

Not sure that example works in this case. We are paying for future UFA year’s with this contract. I am sure year 5-8 we will love the value of the McDavid contract. This year we are paying much more than the 10% premium you reference.

ArmchairGM

leadfarmer:
Well at least if we are to continue ignoring the USNDP we are shopping heavy in the OHL

Most of the great RHD come out of Ontario, and that’s a fact.

Oil2Oilers

LT, thanks for all you do, but especially on draft weekend. You are my go to draft expert.

I am happy with how the weekend turned out. Big mistake trades and walk about picks were avoided, the rest is wait an see.

For the next two weeks or so my wish list is;

Good health for the kids coming to camp next weekend, Benson most of all.

Lucic traded with out too a painful sweetener (Lucic + for Faulk would be ideal)

Sign Rieder to replace Lucic as 2LW playing with Draisaitl

Sign Shawn Matthias to be a mirror man with Khaira on 3LW/4C

The Trade Guy

If anyone was worth the max in this league it’s McDavid.

His contract is no issue whatsoever.

Drew

Woogie63: If we have the same top 10 scorer in the NHL in 18/19 here are the differences in salaries.This is more than a variable.

McDavid $12.5M
Giroux $8.275M ($4.275M)
Kucherov $4.77M ($7.73M)
Malkin $9.5M ($3.0M)
Mackinnon $6.3M ($6.2M)
Hall $6M ($6.5M)
Kopitar $10M ($2.5M)
Kessel $6.8M ($5.7M)
Wheeler$5.6M ($6.9M)
Crosby $8.7M ($3.8M)

In the business’s I run I pay the top performers very very well and everyone else fairly,

if MacD is 10% overpaid (for argument’s sake) I would live with it. Russell is what 50 – 100% overpaid and has movement limitations, Lucic is 100% overpaid with limitations as well etc I fight those battles everyday not the MacD contract. His contract is a variable to be considered but not the problem we face today.

Also, the next contract for Hall, Mackinnon will look nothing like their current one. If you think that the issue with MacD contract is the same as the other “errors” made by Chia I respectfully disagree.

Woogie63

godot10: Kessel earns $8 million per season.

.
You are correct, forgot TML are paying part of his salary

Munny

Woodguy v2.0: If Bouchard is for real (and I think he is) I expect around 40% from him this year barring injury.
We’ll see.

That’s a lot of NHL goals to be in on, during one’s rookie season.

😉

godot10

Woogie63: If we have the same top 10 scorer in the NHL in 18/19 here are the differences in salaries.This is more than a variable.

McDavid $12.5M
Giroux $8.275M ($4.275M)
Kucherov $4.77M ($7.73M)
Malkin $9.5M ($3.0M)
Mackinnon $6.3M ($6.2M)
Hall $6M ($6.5M)
Kopitar $10M ($2.5M)
Kessel $6.8M ($5.7M)
Wheeler$5.6M ($6.9M)
Crosby $8.7M ($3.8M)

Kessel earns $8 million per season.

Pretendergast

leadfarmer,

Looch, they retain, Sekera.
trade Montoya in a separate deal for a sandwhich.

Plenty of ways to get creative, if Milan says yes Waddell would love him.

Cost would probably go up because of Looch’s contract but its a one year deal so maybe a deadline deal with a third party ala Brassard to keep the money under and asset cost palpable.

Evander Kane was given up for a late first, if we’re in the thick of it (hopefully) it’d be a grand old add.

Woogie63

Drew: the McDavid contract is a variable to be considered but is not the problem, it’s been the death by a thousand cuts issues; Russel, Lucic, unproven backup for 2.5M, even the extra million for Drai, etc that are killing the Oilers today

If we have the same top 10 scorer in the NHL in 18/19 here are the differences in salaries. This is more than a variable.

McDavid $12.5M
Giroux $8.275M ($4.275M)
Kucherov $4.77M ($7.73M)
Malkin $9.5M ($3.0M)
Mackinnon $6.3M ($6.2M)
Hall $6M ($6.5M)
Kopitar $10M ($2.5M)
Kessel $8.0 ($4.5M) edit
Wheeler$5.6M ($6.9M)
Crosby $8.7M ($3.8M)

Woodguy v2.0

godot10:

16 year old year
Ellis 25%
Barrie 20%
Bogosian 17%
Pietrangelo 16%
Doughty 15%
Dumba 11%
Hamilton 9%
Bouchard 8%
Nurse 6%

17 year old year
Doughty 35%
Bogosian 35%
Ellis 34%
Dumba 30%
Pietrangelo 22%
Hamilton 22%
Barrie 21%
Nurse 16%
Bouchard 15%

18 year old year
Bouchard 38%
Barrie 38%
Hamilton 34%
Doughty 28% (injury)
Ellis 26% (injury)
Pietrangelo 26%
Dumba 25%
Nurse 20%
Bogosian NHL (bad teams do bad things)

19 year old year
Ellis – 43%
Hamilton – 40%
Barrie – 33%
Pietrangelo 24%
Dumba – 23% (26 gp only – injury and NHL games played as well)
Nurse – 18%
Bouchard – TBA
Doughty – NHL
Bogosian – NHL

Richard S.S.

leadfarmer,

That makes 5 years in Junior, doing what? Being bored.

Drew

Woogie63: McDavid contract will take a few years of cap increases just like Crosby

the McDavid contract is a variable to be considered but is not the problem, it’s been the death by a thousand cuts issues; Russel, Lucic, unproven backup for 2.5M, even the extra million for Drai, etc that are killing the Oilers today

RonnieB

Wilde: Just kidding, Washington’s cap is not a problem at all.

It’s so sad to look at the Cup winner and see their cap in much better shape than ours.

Following the Carlsson signing the Capitals have about $13 million to sign 3 D, including Bowey and Kempny, and 4 F, including Smith-Pelley and Wilson, and a backup goaie. You probably couldn’t squeeze Burakovsky out of them, but maybe Connolly for Montoya + Aberg ( or Rattie ? ).

Woogie63

Wilde: Just kidding, Washington’s cap is not a problem at all.

It’s so sad to look at the Cup winner and see their cap in much better shape than ours.

McDavid contract will take a few years of cap increases just like Crosby