Another Park, Another Sunday

On Friday afternoon at five, a rumor hit the Al Gore. Edmonton was apparently in talks with the Boston Bruins, with Oscar Klefbom and No. 10 overall possibly heading east. Coming west? Torey Krug, Danton Heinen and or Anders Bjork. Whether it was real or not, the rumor died on the vine with the Evan Bouchard selection. Oilers added five prospects via the draft and one through trade while in Dallas. Plenty of work to do this summer, but a productive draft weekend.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

CURRENT PROSPECT LIST

  • The Leftorium fever is broken! After what seems like a decade, the Oilers have more RHD bubbling under than LHD.
  • I’d say the top three defensemen left and right are prospects we can project to the next level, at least for an audition period. Joel Persson is kind of a wild card, John Marino looks promising but there may be some running in place, and Phil Kemp is matriculating.
  • Edmonton went into the weekend with one “A” prospect (in my opinion), Kailer Yamamoto. I believe Evan Bouchard is also an “A” prospect, your mileage on one or both may vary.
  • The second tier has (again my opinion) one more prospect in the addition of Ryan McLeod. For me, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Kirill Maksimov and Cooper Marody are also in that group. There are others who may well emerge (Filip Berglund, William Lagesson, Stuart Skinner, Graham McPhee, new arrival Olivier Rodrigue) but we’re going to have to see them spike.
  • I have no idea where to slot Hayden Hawkey, but will say he has a fabulous name for the sport and the position he plays.
  • One full year is a good time frame to get a view on progress. Looking back on last year, the two prospects who have moved forward the most are Kirill Maksimov and William Lagesson.
  • The best non-drafted newcomers in the last 12 months are Cooper Marody, Joel Persson and Cameron Hebig.
  • Graham McPhee and Aapeli Rasanen are two players to watch this winter. It’s easy to forget about them, and it isn’t like they’re scoring at Fernando Pisani (when he was in college) levels, but McPhee took a nice step forward and perhaps Rasanen will do the same.

RANKINGS

Definitely a three prospect draft, interesting to see Bouchard’s rankings having more range than one might expect from a likely top 10 selection. Part of that may come from his age (he is a 1999) something that also impacts McLeod (who was universally ranked in the final third of the first round). Rodrigue’s rankings are fairly consistent and Steve Kournianos probably has you ranked somewhere, that guy is thorough.

QUALIFYING OFFERS

The Oilers extended qualifying offers to Darnell Nurse, Ryan Strome and Anton Slepyshev yesterday, that’s news on several levels. Although the Nurse contract number remains uncertain, I think we might see Strome’s deal at $3 million for one season. Slepyshev’s transaction is merely paperwork based on what we know, they are retaining his rights.

50-MAN ROSTER

  • Still massive amounts of room to sign free agents, I wonder if we see a bunch of secondary signings on July 1 ala one year ago.
  • You can see the roster as it may appear this fall, there are jobs at No. 2R, No. 3R, No. 4C and No. 7D.
  • There’s lots of work to do, but as of now new faces on opening night might include Mikko Koskinen, Keegan Lowe, Cooper Marody.

OILERS 2018 FREE AGENTS

  • G Nick Ellis RFA. Retired.
  • G Laurent Brossoit UFA. Unlikely to return.
  • LD Darnell Nurse RFA. Qualified
  • RD Matt Benning RFA. Signed. 
  • LD Yohann Auvitu UFA. KHL bound.
  • RD Mark Fayne UFA. He’s done with the Oilers.
  • LD Keegan Lowe UFA. Signed. 
  • LD Dillon Simpson UFA. Appears headed to free agency.
  • LD Joey Laleggia UFA. Appears headed to free agency.
  • LD Ben Betker RFA. Not Qualified. 
  • RC Ryan Strome RFA. Qualified. 
  • RC Kyle Platzer RFA. Not Qualified.
  • LC Grayson Downing UFA. Appears headed to free agency.
  • L Mike Cammalleri UFA. Appears headed to free agency.
  • L Drake Caggiula RFA. Signed. 
  • L Braden Christoffer RFA. Signed an AHL deal. 
  • R Anton Slepyshev RFA. Qualified.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen RFA. Not Qualified. 
  • R Patrick Russell. RFA. Signed. 
  • R Brian Ferlin UFA. Appears headed to free agency.

Dillon Simpson is the most likely of the pending free agents to be signed based on Edmonton’s own history. His skill set is duplicated by Keegan Lowe, and if we’re honest Lowe might be the better defenseman at this time.

I think this is the best road, to be honest. Every NHL team has five slots for pro goalies (two NHL, two AHL, usually ECHL starter) and ideally you have three younger men pushing for NHL work. As I see it, the depth chart this winter will be Cam Talbot with Mikko Koskinen in the NHL; Condors goalies Shane Starrett and Dylan Wells; ECHL starter Stuart Skinner. I also think Wells and Skinner will shuffle often to make sure both get a lot of work.

HAYDEN HAWKEY

His resume looks good, one year from the pressure point of signing him. Providence goalies appear to be an itch the Oilers must scratch, as Nick Ellis was the starter before Hawkey. Jon Gillies was the goalie in Providence before Ellis and Hawkey, he was highly touted and hasn’t worked out as a pro (yet). Maybe the Friars suppress dangerous shots, or maybe the shot counter is a madman, or maybe Hayden Hawkey is an excellent prospect. We wait.

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181 Responses to "Another Park, Another Sunday"

  1. Spooky Lynx says:

    I would suggest Benson is also a second tier prospect.

  2. jm363561 says:

    Good evening from Manila. I would just like to say how much I have enjoyed this blog the last few weeks. I have never had the slightest interest in the draft but even I got caught up in the excitement. I noticed one poster commented what an “exceedingly civil” place this is, and this is what makes it so special. Thanks, as always, to LT, but also to great posters like Woodguy, Jaxon, Wilde and great to see Wheatnoil posting again.

    Leadfarmer – please do not feed the trolls. Being ignored is what they hate the most.

    Go Oilers.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    I would like to see the Oilers sign LB to a 2x$1M contract. If we are going to have kids learning in Bakersfield, you need a good goalie.

    I would place LB above all our current options as a NHL prospect.

    Pitlick contract so we don’t get Duby”Niked”

  4. N64 says:

    I have no idea where to slot Hayden “Hawkey, but will say he has a fabulous name for the sport and the position he plays”

    If Hockey should be called Goalie what could be better than a Goalie called Hawkey?

  5. Professor Q says:

    I think G depth is very good. It’s just a battle to figure out best playing arrangements and staggering promotions properly.

    Brossoit likely gone (that’s why I was wondering about a possible trade earlier; maybe even without the Talbot rumours), Ellis retired and moved on, etc. means that grabbing the best G prospect in the draft in Rodrigue (family notwithstanding) and trading for Hawkey seem like pretty good bets to wait a few years for. Or maybe they impress earlier!

  6. Professor Q says:

    N64:
    I have no idea where to slot Hayden “Hawkey, but will say he has a fabulous name for the sport and the position he plays”

    If Hockey should be called Goalie what could be better than a Goalie called Hawkey?

    If said goalie beat Chicago in the Conference Finals.

  7. Brantford Boy says:

    Great post LT!

    Interesting to see the Current Prospect Roster layout (although the 50 man is missing Bouchard), in that Bouchard is now the clear #1 D on the farm, which stings just a little as I’m sure most of us were really routing for Bear (and for good reason), but he’s been knocked down the depths a bit.

    You forgot to mention Benson in the little write up, just curious, is he a A- or B+ prospect?

    Our goalie prospect list is long… so glad the LHD/RHD is much more balanced now… good draft Oilers!

  8. Jaxon says:

    Projected 5-on-5 Primary Points Comparables for Tristen Nielsen (adjusted to era, age, TOI, and league). Sign this kid to a 3 year ELC with no bonuses. It likely won’t can’t toward the 50-man anyway as he’ll be on a slide-rule. Pavel Gogolev, too.

    2010 Brendan Gallagher 24
    2010 Mark Stone 24
    2011 Jonathan Huberdeau 24
    2017 Cody Glass 24
    2009 Matt Duchene 24
    2010 Ryan Spooner 24
    2016 Vitalii Abramov 24
    2010 Nino Niederreiter 24
    2017 Josh Norris 24
    2018 Filip Zadina 24
    2017 Kailer Yamamoto 24
    2006 Bryan Little 24
    2010 Jeff Skinner 24
    2018 Serron Noel 24
    2011 Stefan Noesen 24
    2016 Julien Gauthier 23
    2017 Kyle Olson 23
    2009 Brayden Schenn 23
    2012 Radek Faksa 23
    2009 Nazem Kadri 23
    2014 Jake Virtanen 23
    2013 Anthony Mantha 23
    2017 Mason Shaw 23
    2017 Robert Thomas 23
    2016 Dillon Dube 23
    2005 Benoit Pouliot 23
    2015 Travis Konecny 23
    2012 Nail Yakupov 23
    2016 Logan Brown 23
    2017 Evan Barratt 23
    2016 Kyle Maksimovich 23
    2017 Macauley Carson 23
    2017 Jonah Gadjovich 23
    2017 Nico Hischier 23
    2013 Ryan Hartman 23
    2010 Ryan Johansen 23
    2016 Taylor Raddysh 23
    2018 Tristen Nielsen post injury mid DEC to END 23********************
    2015 Mathieu Joseph 22
    2009 Peter Holland 22
    2013 Sean Monahan 22
    2007 Jakub Voracek 22
    2015 Anthony Beauvillier 22
    2016 Will Bitten 22
    2017 Kole Lind 22
    2017 Jaret Anderson-Dolan 22
    2011 Sean Couturier 22
    2018 Jake Wise 22
    2007 Logan Couture 22
    2015 Dennis Yan 22
    2016 Connor Bunnaman 22
    2014 Nikita Scherbak 22
    2018 Aidan Dudas 22
    2015 Nick Merkley 22
    2016 Jordan Kyrou 22
    2011 Ty Rattie 22
    2018 Allan McShane 22

    Nielsen is fast, energetic and was one of the highest scoring draft eligibles in North America this season, especially since returning from injury. I have him 7th in projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts after adjusting for age and league and 11th in goals.

    Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts:
    Andrei Svechnikov 39
    Joel Farabee 32
    Oliver Wahlstrom 29
    Jonathan Gruden 28
    Filip Zadina 24
    Serron Noel 24
    Tristen Nielsen (post injury mid DEC to END) 23
    Jake Wise 22

    No cost except a spot on the 50-man.

    Pavel Gogolev would be another one to consider. 6th in 5-on-5 goals.
    Projected 5-on-5 Goals:
    Andrei Svechnikov 26
    Oliver Wahlstrom 20
    Filip Zadina 17
    Serron Noel 16
    Jonathan Gruden 15
    Pavel Gogolev 15

  9. Westchester Oil says:

    LT – thanks for your extensive draft Coverage. Much appreciated.

    Happy with Bouchard (although I wouldn’t have complained about Wahlstrom or Dobson). Happy with McLeod. I’m fine with Rodrigue (although his .903 save percentage last year is not earth shattering) , but I’m concerned that both Rodrique + Skinner cost us two picks each on top of the pick given up for Montoya. Not thrilled that we went off the board with the last two picks, but still that is way less risky than Arizona taking Hayton 5th,. I am quite disappointed that we didn’t take more wingers where we clearly lack high-end depth.

    I’m not sure if anyy other team has 8 goalies. Maybe Chia’s strategy is that because goalies are voodoo, buy as many lottery tickets as you can and hope that 1 or 2 turn out.

  10. Soup Fascist says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Great post LT!

    Interesting to see the Current Prospect Roster layout (although the 50 man is missing Bouchard), in that Bouchard is now the clear #1 D on the farm, which stings just a little as I’m sure most of us were really routing for Bear (and for good reason), but he’s been knocked down the depths a bit.

    You forgot to mention Benson in the little write up, just curious, is he a A- or B+ prospect?

    Our goalie prospect list is long… so glad the LHD/RHD is much more balanced now… good draft Oilers!

    LT’s list is exclusively for signed players, I believe – none of yesterday’s draftees are on it.

  11. Westchester Oil says:

    Brantford Boy:
    so glad the LHD/RHD is much more balanced now…

    The LD/RD balance is much better than it was. However, for this year, if one of Bear/Bouchard don’t make the team and one of our LHD isn’t traded, we’ll still have Russell playing on his unnatural side.

  12. Glass says:

    How do people feel about Bouchard around here? I’m excited about him, and think he has the potential to become the best D on our team. Unfortunately it seems like I’m getting a ‘meh’ vibe from people about this pick.

    Nurse/Bouchard
    Nurse is your very mobile physical shutdown D who can also carry the puck well. Bouchard has a great shot from the point with mighty outlet passes.

    Klefbom/Larsson
    They have had success before. 2-way D with physical shutdown D.

  13. deardylan says:

    Quick Q for LT or others as I am still learning how to make sense of lists and caps $.

    I see Ty Rattie at #1 RW on 50 man roster and then see him on current prospects as #4th. Does this mean that Yama, Maksimov, Safin are better prospects than Rattie or something else?

    Does paying Pouliot, Benoit UFA $1,333,333 until 2021 still affect our cap numbers? If yes, is there any way to free/trade away this cap cost?

  14. Woogie63 says:

    I think we dodged a bullet this weekend when Quinn Hughes and Adam Boqvist were selected before our pick at 10.

    This offensively gifted undersized dman have to defend, the cycle, and get creamed against the boards 5 times a night as they retrieve a puck dumped into their corner of the ice or box out a Draisaitl.

    Our top 4 with Bouchard will be +6’.2” play above 210 lb and can still skate, for now that is my preference.

  15. Brantford Boy says:

    Soup Fascist,
    Thanks… makes sense…

    Westchester Oil,
    Good point… I did actually meant the prospects pool though…

  16. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    I would like to see the Oilers sign LB to a 2x$1M contract.If we are going to have kids learning in Bakersfield, you need a good goalie.

    I would place LB above all our current options as a NHL prospect.

    Pitlick contract so we don’t get Duby”Niked”

    Montoya is the veteran goaltender for Bakersfield at the moment. Sign LB, and one has no place for even one prospect goaltender in Bakersfield.

    Plus Broissoit has to go to a different organization because McLellan has clearly demonstrated zero confidence in him over three seasons.

  17. Bryan says:

    I’m fine with having a lot of goalies in the system as long as there is a suitable place for them to get plenty of playing time. It’s becomes cliche to say goalies are voodoo but they are definitely a different breed and very tough to project so the wisest course seems to be to bet on a lot of horses. The draft went very well in my opinion and as much as Wahlstrom looks like a stud the right handed d man was the correct choice. I am sure that Connor will smile a little if he watches any of Bouchards highlights that show off his passing skills. I will never be completely over the Hall trade but as long as Chiarelli has put the big whale hunting behind him I am willing to give him a little more rope.

  18. Brantford Boy says:

    Glass,

    RE: Bouchard…

    As some may know, I was/am extremely high on Dobson… of course this was based on all the lists having Dahlin/Hughes/Bouchard all above and being off the board @10… Dobson crushed it in the last month with his play and MSM coverage… I (like many) assumed his stock rose significantly… I expected him to go in the top 5 (Arizona). All this was also based on our #10 spot. As it turned out, 3 teams went ‘outside the consensus’ and we had 3 fabulous prospects to choose from Wahlstrom/Bouchard/Dobson…

    Personally I am ecstatic, and glad they selected him, even over my personal favorite (Dobson). I’m surprised that they didn’t select Wahlstrom but feel they finally selected the position that seems to be coveted (just look at the RHD that went early). I had a hunch that Bouchard was the one falling weeks ago, I just never dreamed all 3 players would still be there for our selection.

  19. Westchester Oil says:

    Glass:
    How do people feel about Bouchard around here? I’m excited about him, and think he has the potential to become the best D on our team. Unfortunately it seems like I’m getting a ‘meh’ vibe from people about this pick.

    Nurse/Bouchard
    Nurse is your very mobile physical shutdown D who can also carry the puck well. Bouchard has a great shot from the point with mighty outlet passes.

    Klefbom/Larsson
    They have had success before. 2-way D with physical shutdown D.

    I think Bouchard will eventually be huge for this team. An offensive D who can pass the puck up to #97 and QB the PP. I can see him getting 50-60 points in a few years.

    We now have organizational depth at Centre on D and in goal. We just need a couple more forwards – maybe a Taylor Hall or a Jordan Eberle. 🙂

  20. Soup Fascist says:

    This roster screams “experienced scoring winger required” without a lot of money below the cap.

    Does a 28 – 32 year old UFA take a cheap one or two year deal, thinking a season in which he will likely get some time playing with McDavid or even Draisaitl, could catapult him into a lucrative last contract?

    This would buy the Oilers a little time to get Yamo and JP their sea legs. Unless they can move a big NMC I don’t see another way to get a solid experienced top 6 winger.

    Any names that would fit that criteria – especially a few days into FA?

  21. Bryan says:

    Glass,

    There is not much to not like about Bouchard. Good skater, excellent vision, elite passer, terrific and accurate shot, leadership qualities. He has some issues in his own end as does virtually every young defensman. He absolutely dominated in junior last year playing on a very average team. It will be interesting to see how long it takes him to adjust to the next level. Yawney has a gem to work with for sure.

  22. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: Montoya is the veteran goaltender for Bakersfield at the moment.Sign LB, and one has no place for even one prospect goaltender in Bakersfield.

    Plus Broissoit has to go to a different organization because McLellan has clearly demonstrated zero confidence in him over three seasons.

    For me I would alternate LB and Starlett in the AHL, and alternate Wells and Skinner in the ECHL.

    I might be more cautious on giving up on this player.

  23. Jaxon says:

    Soup Fascist:
    This roster screams “experienced scoring winger required” without a lot of money below the cap.

    Does a 28 – 32 year old UFA take a cheap one or two year deal, thinking a season in which he will likely get some time playing with McDavid or even Draisaitl, could catapult him into a lucrative last contract?

    This would buy the Oilers a little time to get Yamo and JP their sea legs. Unless they can move a big NMC I don’t see another way to get a solid experienced top 6 winger.

    Any names that would fit that criteria – especially a few days into FA?

    I think Grabner qualifies. Plus, he might be one of the only players in the NHL who can truly, literally keep up with McDavid.
    Nugent-Hopkins / McDavid / Grabner
    sounds like a pretty exciting line and he shouldn’t be that expensive.

  24. Lowetide says:

    deardylan:
    Quick Q for LT or others as I am still learning how to make sense of lists and caps $.

    I see Ty Rattie at #1 RW on 50 man rosterand then see him on current prospects as #4th.Does this mean that Yama, Maksimov, Safin are better prospects than Rattie or something else?

    Does paying Pouliot, Benoit UFA $1,333,333 until 2021 still affect our cap numbers? If yes, is there any way to free/trade away this cap cost?

    Yes, that’s exactly it. For this season, betting on Rattie to post superior numbers is realistic. He’s playing with 97, that’s a tremendous advantage. However, he is 25 and still trying to establish himself in the NHL. Jesse Puljujarvi scored 1 goal at 18, 12 at 19, and might hit 20 at age 20 AWAY from McDavid. Major future for the Finn.

    All buyout numbers apply to the cap.

  25. godot10 says:

    Soup Fascist:
    This roster screams “experienced scoring winger required” without a lot of money below the cap.

    Does a 28 – 32 year old UFA take a cheap one or two year deal, thinking a season in which he will likely get some time playing with McDavid or even Draisaitl, could catapult him into a lucrative last contract?

    This would buy the Oilers a little time to get Yamo and JP their sea legs. Unless they can move a big NMC I don’t see another way to get a solid experienced top 6 winger.

    Any names that would fit that criteria – especially a few days into FA?

    Tobias Rieder might be a UFA later today if LA doesn’t qualify him because of the Kovalchuk signing. He would be my main target. And he is only 25, entering his prime, and can probably be had for 2 x under $3 million.

  26. godot10 says:

    Woogie63: For me I would alternate LB and Starlett in the AHL, and alternate Wells and Skinner in the ECHL.

    I might be more cautious on giving up on this player.

    Montoya has a million dollar contract already. And is Koskinen insurance. McLellan has shown he will NOT play LB.

  27. dustrock says:

    I wonder if they talked to Yawney about the top D prospects available.

    I wouldn’t be shocked if the Oilers had Bouchard as the #2 d-man behind Dahlin but assumed he’d be gone by 10.

  28. Bryan says:

    Lowetide: Yes, that’s exactly it. For this season, betting on Rattie to post superior numbers is realistic. He’s playing with 97, that’s a tremendous advantage. However, he is 25 and still trying to establish himself in the NHL. Jesse Puljujarvi scored 1 goal at 18, 12 at 19, and might hit 20 at age 20 AWAY from McDavid. Major future for the Finn.

    All buyout numbers apply to the cap.

    I was holding my breath that JP didn’t get moved at the draft in some impulsive move. I will be very surprised if he doesn’t take a big step forward this season. Another year of experience, a stronger commitment to offseason training, and some fresh coaching should all help. I believe he has the tools to be an outstanding player for a long time.

  29. Soup Fascist says:

    Jaxon: I think Grabner qualifies. Plus, he might be one of the only players in the NHL who can truly, literally keep up with McDavid.
    Nugent-Hopkins / McDavid / Grabner
    sounds like a pretty exciting line and he shouldn’t be that expensive.

    That sounds reasonable. Ideally the lightning in a bottle that Rattie had with McDavid continues and a Grabner would play with Draisaitl. Though I think expecting Rattie to play all year at that level may be a tad optimistic.

    The key is to push PJ to the 3rd line IMO for one more year. Not sure this is raional but JP having a breakout year in the last year of his ELC is not optimal for the cap situation. A solid developmental season for JP on the 3rd line and 2nd PP would be my best case scenario.

  30. godot10 says:

    Grabner is 30. Will likely cost more than Rieder, who is 25.

  31. Soup Fascist says:

    godot10: Tobias Rieder might be a UFA later today if LA doesn’t qualify him because of the Kovalchuk signing.He would be my main target.And he is only 25, entering his prime, and can probably be had for 2 x under $3 million.

    Does he hold any animosity from his first loop through the organization?

  32. Bryan says:

    godot10: Tobias Rieder might be a UFA later today if LA doesn’t qualify him because of the Kovalchuk signing.He would be my main target.And he is only 25, entering his prime, and can probably be had for 2 x under $3 million.

    He would definitely be a terrific signing at that amount.

  33. trencan says:

    dustrock:
    I wonder if they talked to Yawney about the top D prospects available.

    I wouldn’t be shocked if the Oilers had Bouchard as the #2 d-man behind Dahlin but assumed he’d be gone by 10.

    I think Oilers had their rankings of Dmen this way:
    1. Dahlin
    2. Hughes
    3. Bouchard
    4. Dobson
    5. Smyth

  34. Rondo says:

    dustrock,

    I think McDavid added input regarding the top Dmen in the draft. I think McDavid loved having at big shot at the point in the Wolrds Colton Parayko. Bouchard has most of the check marks Oilers were looking for. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the #2 D on their list. His biggest obstacles will be learning to play defense and skating.

  35. J-Bo says:

    Sorry LT, your favourite possible UFA pickup for our 6/7 defenseman just signed a 1 year/1 mill deal with Ottawa. 🙁

  36. trencan says:

    Westchester Oil: I think Bouchard will eventually be huge for this team. An offensive D who can pass the puck up to #97 and QB the PP. I can see him getting 50-60 points in a few years.

    We now have organizational depth at Centre on D and in goal. We just need a couple more forwards – maybe a Taylor Hall or a Jordan Eberle.

    My concerns with Bouchard are his speed and mobility. It was good for OHL, but I am not sure whether it will be enough for NHL, but there is still time to improve this skills. I know he had fantastic numbers previous season in OHL, but probably because of my concerns with his mobility and speed, I have a feeling he will be in the future type of player closer to Larsson than healthy Klefbom, so more defensive than offensive Dman.

  37. Melman says:

    Bohologo,

    Hope you’re having a great trip! I’m on way way to Split in a couple weeks. Was in Dubrovnik last year and liked Croatia so much we’re going back – this time with 5 families 🤗

  38. stephen sheps says:

    trencan,

    The speed thing is overblown. First off, Bouchard was rated as having the 2nd fastest backwards skating speed in the OHL. Can’t recall the source but it was on the athletic in one of the many draft profiles about him. Wheeler I think?

    Second, when the player is playing close to 24 minutes at evens and close to 30+ minutes a game in all situations, one tends to conserve energy. He’s not explosive like Boqvist or Hughes, but he has good mobility and speed. It’s the classic big-man issue, looking like he’s not moving and then surprisingly always being in the right spot at the right time. LT used to reference Mahovlich as the archetype for this situation.

    I’m absolutely thrilled by the pick. Didn’t think the oilers would be so lucky as to have him fall to 10. He was my top choice by a mile.

  39. trencan says:

    stephen sheps:
    trencan,

    The speed thing is overblown. First off, Bouchard was rated as having the 2nd fastest backwards skating speed in the OHL. Can’t recall the source but it was on the athletic in one of the many draft profiles about him. Wheeler I think?

    Second, when the player is playing close to 24 minutes at evens and close to 30+ minutes a game in all situations, one tends to conserve energy. He’s not explosive like Boqvist or Hughes, but he has good mobility and speed. It’s the classic big-man issue, looking like he’s not moving and then surprisingly always being in the right spot at the right time. LT used to reference Mahovolich as the archetype for this situation.

    I’m absolutely thrilled by the pick. Didn’t think the oilers would be so lucky as to have him fall to 10. He was my top choice by a mile.

    I really hope you are right.

  40. Melman says:

    godot10: Montoya has a million dollar contract already.And is Koskinen insurance.McLellan has shown he will NOT play LB.

    Also fair to say LB didn’t lock down his chance when he had one. You can blame team play at the time, but the constant soft goal/game, poor rebound control and Calgary furball is what did him in. I’m sure TMac would have loved to start him without chomping down Rolaids first

  41. Spooky Lynx says:

    David Pagnotta
    @TheFourthPeriod
    Can confirm the 2nd team officially talking to John Tavares this week is San Jose. They are going all in for him, and word is the entire team is on board to make it happen. They really want him.
    10:12 AM · Jun 24, 2018

    https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1010918677062082560?s=20

    Yikes. This isn’t my favourite possible outcome of the Tavares sweepstakes.

  42. Ben says:

    Q for LT:

    You’ve mentioned that your list is heavily informed by offense. Can you describe how Smith and Dobson ended up ahead of Bouchard in your model, given Bouchard’s near-historic scoring on the worst of the three teams in the toughest of the three leagues? Thx!

  43. Professor Q says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    David Pagnotta
    @TheFourthPeriod
    Can confirm the 2nd team officially talking to John Tavares this week is San Jose. They are going all in for him, and word is the entire team is on board to make it happen. They really want him.
    10:12 AM · Jun 24, 2018

    https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1010918677062082560?s=20

    Yikes. This isn’t my favourite possible outcome of the Tavares sweepstakes.

    I wonder if Thornton and DeMelo would try hard for him in the talks. Two guys from around London pulling in another who played for London? Sunny beaches and Cup Contenders?

  44. Lowetide says:

    Ben:
    Q for LT:

    You’ve mentioned that your list is heavily informed by offense. Can you describe how Smith and Dobson ended up ahead of Bouchard in your model, given Bouchard’s near-historic scoring on the worst of the three teams in the toughest of the three leagues? Thx!

    I didn’t have Dobson ahead of Bouchard:

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/06/22/here-comes-the-sun-2018-draft-edition/

    I wrote about Smith’s uniqueness here:

    https://theathletic.com/342454/2018/05/04/lowetide-ty-smith-a-quality-fit-for-the-oilers-at-no-10-overall/

  45. Professor Q says:

    trencan: My concerns with Bouchard are his speed and mobility. It was good for OHL, but I am not sure whether it will be enough for NHL, but there is still time to improve this skills.I know he had fantastic numbers previous season in OHL, but probably because of my concerns with his mobility and speed, I have a feeling he will be in the future type of player closer to Larssonthan healthy Klefbom, so more defensive than offensive Dman.

    I really don’t think you have to worry about his mobility and speed. Like only one guy (Pronman) is really saying they’re a concern. Most other draft reviews say otherwise, and some have them as a plus. And mine own eyes tell me good things, too.

  46. Bryan says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    David Pagnotta
    @TheFourthPeriod
    Can confirm the 2nd team officially talking to John Tavares this week is San Jose. They are going all in for him, and word is the entire team is on board to make it happen. They really want him.
    10:12 AM · Jun 24, 2018
    If he goes anywhere it will most likely be Toronto but we wait.

    https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1010918677062082560?s=20

    Yikes. This isn’t my favourite possible outcome of the Tavares sweepstakes.

    If he goes anywhere it will likely be Toronto but we wait.

  47. digger50 says:

    Glass:
    How do people feel about Bouchard around here? I’m excited about him, and think he has the potential to become the best D on our team. Unfortunately it seems like I’m getting a ‘meh’ vibe from people about this pick.

    Nurse/Bouchard
    Nurse is your very mobile physical shutdown D who can also carry the puck well. Bouchard has a great shot from the point with mighty outlet passes.

    Klefbom/Larsson
    They have had success before. 2-way D with physical shutdown D.

    I agree people are settling in on the choices.

    For myself, there is so much excitement around the draft due to unlimited potential. I had certain names I expected and thoughts on Smith vs Farabee vs Boqvist for example. Expectations changed so fast – I had no thoughts on Bouchard and was slightly at a loss when we got him. Plus there is the slight post draft hangover “should we have chosen Wahlstrom?” I think this is natural.

    Same with McLoud. I expected certain names at 40. When he drops from around 25 to 40 I should be exstatic but instead I was uncertain.

    The goalie may be a good pick, but not an exciting pick. Like others, I was hoping for a more lucrative shopping trip, at least two more names to get excited about.

    It is what it is, and I agree thier is a vibe out there. I think it’s post draft hangover. Unlimited potential is gone, we got our guys and have some time to digest.

  48. leadfarmer says:

    I would have taken Wahlstrom but we all know D especially RHD are valued a lot higher than wingers. I usually punish London Knights prospects but those numbers are ridiculous for a defenseman and unlike a lot of Ds in this draft defending is a strength.
    You never have too many D.

    As far as free agency goes find a role player on a short term contract. I think we have enough data to know that most free agents on long term contracts you regret within first two years. The teams that signed Lucic Ladd Okposo Ericksson all wish they could rip up those contracts already. I dont expect Neal JVR to fare much better.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Bryan,

    Doubt it.
    It will be NYI or San Jos

  50. Professor Q says:

    stephen sheps:
    trencan,

    The speed thing is overblown. First off, Bouchard was rated as having the 2nd fastest backwards skating speed in the OHL. Can’t recall the source but it was on the athletic in one of the many draft profiles about him. Wheeler I think?

    Second, when the player is playing close to 24 minutes at evens and close to 30+ minutes a game in all situations, one tends to conserve energy. He’s not explosive like Boqvist or Hughes, but he has good mobility and speed. It’s the classic big-man issue, looking like he’s not moving and then surprisingly always being in the right spot at the right time. LT used to reference Mahovlich as the archetype for this situation.

    I’m absolutely thrilled by the pick. Didn’t think the oilers would be so lucky as to have him fall to 10. He was my top choice by a mile.

    Quoting for necessity.

    I also do love that he usually switched from RD to LD throughout the game, seemingly period-by-period but also situationally and during offensive plays. It showcases his versatility and awareness. Positionally excellent (shifts like Ovechkin and Larsson), can do rushes (like you-know-who), and has a good shot. Not to mention his work ethic and quiet leadership.

    Yes, he can and will hopefully improve, but the checks and signs already present point to a good future once he’s ready, and beyond.

  51. Professor Q says:

    Bryan,

    Does Toronto have the space for him? Would they trade Marner and a good D + for his rights?

  52. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    I was happy to see they were able to adjust their board when people fell. Thats why i didnt us to trade our pick. Someone falls every year. I was worried we got so focused on Smith we wouldnt be able to refocus

  53. leadfarmer says:

    Professor Q,

    No. That would be crazy

  54. Wilde says:

    Woogie63:
    I think we dodged a bullet this weekend when Quinn Hughes and Adam Boqvist were selected before our pick at 10.

    This offensively gifted undersized dman have to defend, the cycle, and get creamed against the boards 5 times a night as they retrieve a puck dumped into their corner of the ice or box out a Draisaitl.

    Our top 4 with Bouchard will be +6’.2” play above 210 lb and can still skate, for now that is my preference.

    I don’t know if a forechecking forward has even hit the wind behind Hughes in years.

  55. Richard S.S. says:

    Of the Defenseman, Rasmussen Dahlin, Quinn Hughes and Evan Bourchard are suggested to be NHL-ready. Maybe Noah Dodson could be included.
    Of the Wingers, Andrei Svechnekov, Brady Tkachuk and Filip Zadina are suggested to be NHL-ready.
    Of the Centers, maybe Jesperi Kotkanieni is NHL-ready.
    Anyone else is wishful thinking.

    Jesperi Kotkanieni was a bit of a reach, but he wasn’t in the Oiler’s range. Braden Hayden was a bit of a reach, but he was in the early teens. Vitali Kravtsov was a bit of a reach, but he was in the early teens. Adam Boqvist was a bit of a reach, but he was in the early teens.

    That’s how Evan Bouchard, Noah Dodson and Oliver Wahlstrom fell to the Oilers at 10, three players in the 5-8 range are available. All three Players fills a need for the Oilers, whether at RD or RW. It is very telling that the Oilers choose Evan Bouchard as BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE over anyone else.

  56. godot10 says:

    Professor Q: I wonder if Thornton and DeMelo would try hard for him in the talks. Two guys from around London pulling in another who played for London? Sunny beaches and Cup Contenders?

    Tavares going to San Jose would mean Joe would probably have to play for “free” next year if he wanted to stay in San Jose.

  57. leadfarmer says:

    Well at least if we are to continue ignoring the USNDP we are shopping heavy in the OHL

  58. who says:

    Chia has done a nice job building a prospect pool of dmen and goalies. There is only one more thing he needs to do this summer to make me a believer .
    If (BIG IF) Lucic has agreed to or requested a trade, he needs to find a way to dump that contract. This contract will effectively tie Chias hands for the next 5 years. It will prevent him from adding the needed piece or pieces to contend for a cup. Even if he has to include a decent prospect or second rounder. Or eat up to 2 million in salary.
    People are suggesting he will rebound. To what level? He’s been a visibly poor player here for 2 years.
    People tell me he scored at a first line rate his first year here..I saw way too many fumbled pucks, blind passes and missed tap ins to ever consider him a top 6 forward.
    Find a way Chia!

  59. rickithebear says:

    Jaxon:
    Keep on keeping!

    But a hint!

    Go back on all the prospect leagues to 05-06.
    Compare primary, Even, & Total points.

    You will see which of the 3 is the best capture of translation.

    It is a process that must be done. When thier are options to selection.
    You do not want to provide data that is the worst available at identifying the positive players.

    Just as a did when identifying highest % of elite HD Dmen.
    All baseline must be checked.
    CA
    Danger CA
    Open CA
    Open danger CA

    Fenwick
    Danger Fenwick
    Open Fenwick
    Danger open Fenwick

    Shots
    Danger shots
    Open shots
    Open danger shots

    The 2 worst that have less than 50% capture and does not differentiate elite def play.
    Fenwick and Danger Fenwick.

  60. Bryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bryan,

    Doubt it.
    It will be NYI or San Jos

    Yes I meant Toronto if he doesn’t stay on the island. I see him as a loyal guy and with Lou in charge there now fully expect Tavares to stay put.

  61. Wilde says:

    godot10: Tavares going to San Jose would mean Joe would probably have to play for “free” next year if he wanted to stay in San Jose.

    This is the plan for Jumbo, has been for awhile.

    I’d have the Sharks next closest after the Isles, who probably have a 70% chance of re-signing him because hockey players.

  62. Bryan says:

    Professor Q:
    Bryan,

    Does Toronto have the space for him? Would they trade Marner and a good D + for his rights?

    I think they would get quite creative if they have a shot at Tavares.

  63. jtblack says:

    First off. LT – THANK YOU. Your insight and passion are contagious. Love the draft coverage.

    Hindsight is the only tool that will reveal how we did this draft.

    Bouchard. I am fine with. Never seen him play. If he can be a Top 4, PP guy in 3 or 4 years, thats a win.

    Dissapointed we didnt grab Addison @ #40. True chance to be a Letang type.

    Dont get the goalie pick at #62 & giving up a pick for him.

    OVERALL i ranked this draft a B-. Wonder how you all rank it? B- ; 6.5 out of 10.

    Where were all the deals? 😉 200 Rumors and 1 major deal.

    Calgary got worse this draft.

    Cheers All.

  64. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    I’m glad we got a dman that can defend. I actually think going forward we already have a offensive minded defensively need to be somewhat sheltered d spot covered in Bear

  65. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon: I think Grabner qualifies. Plus, he might be one of the only players in the NHL who can truly, literally keep up with McDavid.
    Nugent-Hopkins / McDavid / Grabner
    sounds like a pretty exciting line and he shouldn’t be that expensive.

    I rate Grabner or Vanek’s chances of being on the Oilers as -10% after the drunken party on Vivieros’ Austrian national team the night before one of the biggest games ever for Austria.

  66. Nix says:

    godot10: Tobias Rieder might be a UFA later today if LA doesn’t qualify him because of the Kovalchuk signing.He would be my main target.And he is only 25, entering his prime, and can probably be had for 2 x under $3 million.

    If Lucic leaves for Southwest pastures as I want and believe, then a Teutonic dream line of Rieder-Drai-Vanek (Austrian but close enough) would be wunderbar.

    Buy out Russell and nab Davidson yet again and were shakin.

    If you wanna get super wild, perhaps try to flip Yamo for Vesalainen and we approach a bit of balance. Big, fast, mobile team with a world class killer or two up top. Maybe draft a shooting RW next spring.

    RNH-McD-Rattie
    Reider-Drai-Vanek
    Vesalainen-Strome-Puljujarvi
    Khaira-Marody-Kassian
    (Caggiula/Aberg)

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sekera-Bouchard
    (Davidson)

  67. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I hope Bouchard becomes a 40-50 point two way big time outscorer so they can afford to keep him. If McD pumps him too far he’ll cost a fortune in a few years after he makes it, and they’ll have to lose somebody else good to sign him.

    After Karlsson and Doughty sign high end RD are going to cost a lot like elite centres are now.

  68. Nix says:

    Perhaps with some timely Yawney whispering, Benning is this years 2RD stopgap we need all along. Its year 3 coming up and he fared surprisingly well this season all considering.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    Bryan,

    If I was JT I don’t get why the Sharks. You do get a good chance at a cup for couple years but soon everyone will be gone or in twilight years and hes stuck there. Burns is at the end of his peak. Vlasic has heavy miles on him. Pavelski turns 34 (go Plover Wonder!!!). When his skating slips he’s done (never was a good skater and when you talk to people in central Wisconsin he was a god awful skater growing up).

  70. Professor Q says:

    Nix,

    Teutonic would include Austria. Germanic tribes are all over Europe. 😉

  71. Bryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bryan,

    If I was JT I don’t get why the Sharks.You do get a good chance at a cup for couple years but soon everyone will be gone or in twilight years and hes stuck there.Burns is at the end of his peak.Vlasic has heavy miles on him.Pavelski turns 34 (go Plover Wonder!!!).When his skating slips he’s done (never was a good skater and when you talk to people in central Wisconsin he was a god awful skater growing up).

    I can’t see him tying himself to the Sharks at this point in time either.

  72. OilersFuture says:

    I thought the draft was solid from the Oiler’s perspective. https://oilersfuture.wordpress.com/2018/06/22/nhl-draft-2018-links/

    I had Bouchard as my number 2 defenseman in the draft. I also had Wahlstrom # 2 for forwards.
    I had McLeod at 19th for forwards. He could be a good middle-six player. There were other players I had rated ahead of him but this was good value.
    I had Rodrigue as the 4th goalie. They all went close together, I thought there was a severe drop off after the first four.
    I had Kesselring the 49th rated defenseman and my 4th highest for High School players.
    I had nothing on the final pick.

    I was happy that Scott Perunovich finally got drafted. I had him on my list two years ago.

  73. --hudson-- says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bryan,

    If I was JT I don’t get why the Sharks.You do get a good chance at a cup for couple years but soon everyone will be gone or in twilight years and hes stuck there.Burns is at the end of his peak.Vlasic has heavy miles on him.Pavelski turns 34 (go Plover Wonder!!!).When his skating slips he’s done (never was a good skater and when you talk to people in central Wisconsin he was a god awful skater growing up).

    If the money between the Island, Toronto, Vegas and SJ are all the same and it does come down to most chances of winning a championship- which team do you think he picks? It would seem Toronto doesn’t it? They have the young core and organizational depth.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Tavares going to San Jose would mean Joe would probably have to play for “free” next year if he wanted to stay in San Jose.

    My guess is that Joe really wants to win and would play for league minimum at 39 to make it happen.

    His NHL salary income over his career is $104.7MM I would guess that money doesn’t hit his top 5 reasons to play this coming year.

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bryan,

    If I was JT I don’t get why the Sharks.You do get a good chance at a cup for couple years but soon everyone will be gone or in twilight years and hes stuck there.Burns is at the end of his peak.Vlasic has heavy miles on him.Pavelski turns 34 (go Plover Wonder!!!).When his skating slips he’s done (never was a good skater and when you talk to people in central Wisconsin he was a god awful skater growing up).

    Their window is longer than a couple years.

    Ages this fall:

    Key forwards:

    JT 28 (assuming he signs)
    Kane 26
    Couture 29
    Pavelski 34
    Hertl 25
    Donskoi 26
    Karlsson 27
    Meier 21

    Dmen
    Vlasic 31
    Burns 33
    Braun 31

    Goalie
    Jones 28

    The Dcorps is a little long in the tooth, but the forwards, outside of Pavelski, are all in their prime.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    –hudson–: If the money between the Island, Toronto, Vegas and SJ are all the same and it does come down to most chances of winning a championship- which team do you think he picks?It would seem Toronto doesn’t it?They have the young core and organizational depth.

    If he sees the opportunities as close to the same and the money is similar I think it comes down to inertia.

    No one likes to move, disrupt their routine and have to start a new one.

    The San Jose area is pretty freaking great though.

  77. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Meh
    Couture is good. Any team that he signs with has JT then so that doesn’t count. Pavelski has a couple years left. Who knows which Kane you get now that he has a contract. He could be a top line forward or off the team in a year. I like Meier. Rest of the guys every team has similar players so no need to talk about them.
    Defense is ageing and not much bubbling under. Entire season relies on a healthy Vlasic. He goes down what do you do? Give Burns the hard minutes?

    Toronto can’t afford him. Even if they sign him for 12 mil and sign Matthews for 12 mil. That gets too expensive for 2 forwards. They need to trade Marner for d and they can’t afford him anyway and Nylander is not going to sign cheap. That defense needs work even with whatever d they can get for Marner

    I think his best chance to win a cup is with the Isles. He just needs some patience. Their offense is going to be 3 lines deep very soon

  78. leadfarmer says:

    The Toronto situation is going to be very intriguing very soon. Young forwards that want to be paid. Team needs defense. Any GM that trades Nylander Matthews or Marner for d help will pretty much get tarred and feathered. I’m not surprised Lou left. Dubas has the chance to be the most hated person in Toronto before the age of 40

  79. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I can’t remember, but didn’t you do some looking into ‘the Cliff’ for d-men a while back?

    SJ seem to be a one trick pony. I expected them to reshape their D after the Oilers knocked them out last year. But they went to work on an already serviceable forward group but didn’t get rid of the golden oldies except for Paddy Marleau.

    All things being equal, McDavid and Draisaitl beat the crap out of that D corps again.

  80. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear:
    Jaxon:
    Keep on keeping!

    But a hint!

    Go back on all the prospect leagues to 05-06.
    Compare primary, Even, & Total points.

    You will see which of the 3 is the best capture of translation.

    It is a process that must be done. When thier are options to selection.
    You do not want to provide data that is the worst available at identifying the positive players.

    Just as a did when identifying highest % of elite HD Dmen.
    All baseline must be checked.
    CA
    Danger CA
    Open CA
    Open danger CA

    Fenwick
    Danger Fenwick
    Open Fenwick
    Danger open Fenwick

    Shots
    Danger shots
    Open shots
    Open danger shots

    The 2 worst that have less than 50% capture and does not differentiate elite def play.
    Fenwick and Danger Fenwick.

    I did find that 5-on-5 Primary / 60 is a pretty good sorter of elite talent, but a lot of busts fall in among them as well. What I did find as a real bellwether of talent, which excluded many busts, was estimated 5-on-5 ice time going back to Crosby’s year. 13.5 seems to be a fairly predictive threshold. Which is why I wasn’t as high on Farabee as many others and was higher on Gruden. By that metric Gogolev is a better prospect than Nielsen. But, even with all that said, there is literally no cost to signing these two players. They won’t be on a maximum ELC and they won’t have any bonuses. If they aren’t good enough they’ll stay in Junior and will be slide rule, so they won’t even count toward the 50-man. The other thing about all these stats is that none of them are completely predictive, so even though Nielsen falls below my 13.5 eTOI threshold, it may be worth the non-risk. I feel 5-on-5 primary pts are the toughest points to achieve, so these two players are the highest achievers in primary points and goals at 5-on-5 and therefore worth the non-risk of signing them. It seems like a no-brainer to me. The numbers I have above are all age, etoi, era and league adjusted. I don’t see a compelling argument for not signing them.

  81. leadfarmer says:

    I wonder what offers he gets. 8 years at 11 mil per to beat puts him at least 7 x 12 mil from others. He may make more than Mcdavid before the dust settles

  82. defmn says:

    I am wondering if the Oilers try dressing 7 dmen to open the season with Bouchard playing the PP and very limited 3rd pairing minutes.

    The reason I wonder is because of two factors.

    First of all Bouchard has played 3 years of junior so I am not sure what he has left to accomplish at that level.

    Second is my feeling that with two centres eating up $21 million in cap space it is time for Leon and Connor to start splitting the fourth line centre duties which would allow a 7th dman to dress.

    I think a 9 game experiment to start the season this way could work well for the team and allowing Bouchard to train with NHL quality coaching etc. would easily compensate for lesser playing time.

    Thoughts?

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I used to look at IPP for CHL Dmen quite closely as it not a bad indicator of future NHL success based on my own years of looking at the IPP of NHL Dmen from the CHL. Its not perfect though.

    IPP in this case is the % of total team goals the player got a point on. Pro-rated for the number of games the player actually played.

    I also use age and not draft year as age is more important imo.

    Here’s a few Dmen and their IPP at ages 16, 17, 18 and 19.

    The age is determined on Dec 31st of the season. Iie) Doughty turned 17 in December 2006 so his 17 year old year was his draft -1, not his draft year. Same for Bouchard (Oct birthday)

    Like any birthday cut off, its a bit arbitrary but the player spends the majority of the season “at that age” so its pretty fair imo.

    Note: IPP over 20 as a 17 is usually good and was the indicator I’d look for if a Dman was going to have a decent NHL career and over 25% at 17 is pretty rare.

    16 year old year
    Ellis 25%
    Barrie 20%
    Doughty 15%
    Dumba 11%
    Hamilton 9%
    Bouchard 8%
    Nurse 6%

    17 year old year
    Doughty 35%
    Ellis 34%
    Dumba 30%
    Hamilton 22%
    Barrie 21%
    Nurse 16%
    Bouchard 15%

    18 year old year
    Bouchard 38%
    Barrie 38%
    Hamilton 34%
    Doughty 28% (injury)
    Ellis 26% (injury)
    Dumba 25%
    Nurse 20%

    19 year old year
    Ellis – 43%
    Hamilton – 40%
    Barrie – 33%
    Dumba – 23% (26 gp only – injury and NHL games played as well)
    Nurse – 18%
    Bouchard – TBA
    Doughty – NHL

    My hope is that London’s penchant for playing their best players half the game is what stunted Bouchard’s IPP in his 16 and 17 year old years.

    His IPP in his 18 year old year is in a nice range, but its not adjusted for TOI so the same London penchant might be inflating him a bit. I don’t know.

    Players can be late developers so his 17 year old year isn’t an OMG thing, but I’d feel better if it were higher for sure.

    If Bouchard is for real (and I think he is) I expect around 40% from him this year barring injury.

    We’ll see.

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I can’t remember, but didn’t you do some looking into ‘the Cliff’ for d-men a while back?

    SJ seem to be a one trick pony. I expected them to reshape their D after the Oilers knocked them out last year. But they went to work on an already serviceable forward group but didn’t get rid of the golden oldies except for Paddy Marleau.

    All things being equal, McDavid and Draisaitl beat the crap out of that D corps again.

    Braun had a bad year so I can see Wilson wanting to upgrade 1RD.

    Vlasic has 3-4 high end years left, maybe more as the aging curve is longer for the elite players

    Burns is the bogey here, but DeBoer shelters him pretty hard (Vlasic gets over 40% vs Elite F) so he won’t run out of steam just yet but I can’t put a number on it.

  85. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    All things being equal, McDavid and Draisaitl beat the crap out of that D corps again.

    Couture couldn’t eat, Thornton had one leg and it still took EDM 6 games to beat them so I wouldn’t characterize it the same as you.

  86. slopitch says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Ya his IPP is as good as Ive seen in an 18 year old season. Gotta hope for a good development year next year.

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Via Chris Nichols (@NicholsOnHockey) vis Kypreos on the 31 thoughts podcast:

    @NicholsOnHockey

    So part of the latest edition of 31 Thoughts: The Podcast was recorded Friday evening, following the first round of the NHL draft. Interesting note from Nick Kypreos on the #Oilers and Evan Bouchard, as detailed in this thread…

    Kypreos: “I will tell you this, that the Edmonton #Oilers, as early as (Friday) morning, came close to trading up so they could secure Evan Bouchard.”

    Kypreos on #Oilers, Bouchard: “And as they watched the first five picks develop, they said, ‘We think we can get him now. We think if our projections are accurate on how we read this, we may be able to steal him at 10.'”

    Kypreos: “And sure enough, they are thrilled. They are doing back flips right now.” #Oilers

    Sounds like they got their man.

  88. McSorley33 says:

    Don’t recognize the Oilers franchise…..they actuallly scooped up someone in the 2nd round who wa# ranked as a late first rounder…..

    Very happy with our draft, save taking yet another goalie.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rasanen was great for Finland at the WJC this past season – He was an all-situations player trusted by his coach for 1st PK unit, 1st PP unit, important faceoffs, needing a goal, defending a lead, etc.

    He was the net front presence on the Finish PP and he also liked to head there at evens.

    If he makes it, he’s a 3C type of player – would be great if he could fill that role in 3-5 years.

    Miles to go.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like the Keegan Lowe signing, however, not if he’s an option for the NHL roster out of camp.

    His role needs to be similar to last year – veteran AHL mentor – only an NHL option if injuries really pile up and depth gets severely depleted.

    We need to replace the likes of Auvitu and Gryba to ensure this plays out.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m assuming Betker and Platzer weren’t given QOs and have been let go?

    I wonder if they are looking to re-sign Dillon Simpson or if it was either him or Lowe?

    I’d prefer Simpson as an NHL opinion over Lowe.

  92. Alpine says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Their window is longer than a couple years.

    Ages this fall:

    Key forwards:

    JT28 (assuming he signs)
    Kane 26
    Couture 29
    Pavelski 34
    Hertl 25
    Donskoi 26
    Karlsson 27
    Meier 21

    Dmen
    Vlasic 31
    Burns 33
    Braun 31

    Goalie
    Jones 28

    The Dcorps is a little long in the tooth, but the forwards, outside of Pavelski, are all in their prime.

    I’d add Labanc (21) and Tierney (23) as potential key forwards. Both got to 40 points last season. Labanc in particular looks like a real nice find in the 6th. Sharks seem have a lot of late round picks who are tracking really well for their draft position. There’s a decent cluster of 20-22 yr olds on their AHL team who had either solid seasons or decent cameos.

    That team definitely has the ‘smart organization’ tag going for them to aid their pursuit of Tavares. The Isles’ draft would make me feel a lot better about their future if I were JT and I think he ends up staying out there. But I can see why the Sharks look good in terms of having enough left to compete for a Cup for a couple seasons and then not see a huge drop off if they can mainline some drafted gems through the Barracuda.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    I know Hawkey was slatted to go back to providence but I wonder if they are looking to sign him for this year?

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Great post LT!

    Interesting to see the Current Prospect Roster layout (although the 50 man is missing Bouchard), in that Bouchard is now the clear #1 D on the farm, which stings just a little as I’m sure most of us were really routing for Bear (and for good reason), but he’s been knocked down the depths a bit.

    You forgot to mention Benson in the little write up, just curious, is he a A- or B+ prospect?

    Our goalie prospect list is long… so glad the LHD/RHD is much more balanced now… good draft Oilers!

    Likely because Bouchard isn’t signed and may or may not be this off-season.

    He won’t be on the farm but back to junior.

    He will be AHL eligible for the 2019/20 season.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bohologo:
    Good evening from Podstrana, Croatia.Yesterday I was working my way through the crowds in Split harbour and saw a gentleman wearing an Oilers cap.I flagged him down so we could discuss the draft, and agreed that nothing catastrophic had occurred.

    It’s a small world, Oilers fans!

    Croatia – out of all the countries I’ve had the opportunity to visit, Croatia is right near the top.

    Paying for parking/parking ticket at the post office in Split was an experience I’ll never forget.

  96. Alpine says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I know Hawkeywas slatted to go back to providence but I wonder if they are looking to sign him for this year?

    Do they have room for him anywhere? Montoya, Starrett, Skinner, Wells for four spots right now. Brossoit likely doesn’t come backs. Not sure if Wells or Starrett would be on any teams trade radar right now.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    deardylan:
    Quick Q for LT or others as I am still learning how to make sense of lists and caps $.

    I see Ty Rattie at #1 RW on 50 man rosterand then see him on current prospects as #4th.Does this mean that Yama, Maksimov, Safin are better prospects than Rattie or something else?

    Does paying Pouliot, Benoit UFA $1,333,333 until 2021 still affect our cap numbers? If yes, is there any way to free/trade away this cap cost?

    1) Rattie is likely to start the season on McDavid’s right wing but he’s not really a prospect any more and, if he is, he’s definitely behind the likes of Maksimov and Yamamoto as far a “prospect rankings” go

    2) That dead cap hit is ours for the next 3 years – nothing can be done about it

  98. Rebilled says:

    I think we got a huge steal with Bouchard.

    Book it! Write it down take a picture.

  99. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Jethro Tull,

    All things being equal, McDavid and Draisaitl beat the crap out of that D corps again.

    Couture couldn’t eat, Thornton had one leg and it still took EDM 6 games to beat them so I wouldn’t characterize it the same as you.

    Sorry, didn’t realise Couture and Thornton played D.

    That was still a good SJ team. Whilst it’s important and correct to criticize and analyze the Oilers many failures, it’s just as important to recognize what they’ve done well. And the failings in other reified franchises.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Melman:
    Bohologo,

    Hope you’re having a great trip!I’m on way way to Split in a couple weeks.Was in Dubrovnik last year and liked Croatia so much we’re going back – this time with 5 families

    OMG – Dubrovnik in July? I’m anything but a religious man but I will pray for you.

    We were there at the very end of October/beginning of November – stayed at the most amazing Air BnB in the old city, right on the water (you could climb out our bedroom window right on to the exterior walking path) – it was the lady’s childhood home – it survived the war whereas her neighbor was completely destroyed.

    In any event, it was a wonderful few days in the off-season, however, the last day we were there, one cruise boat landed and it changed the entire dynamic of the old city for four hours – just over-run with people trying to do and see everything in a few hours – it was awful

    My understanding, is, during the summer, there will be 4-5 of these cruise ships every day.

    Kill me.

    I love travelling in the off-season.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    David Pagnotta
    @TheFourthPeriod
    Can confirm the 2nd team officially talking to John Tavares this week is San Jose. They are going all in for him, and word is the entire team is on board to make it happen. They really want him.
    10:12 AM · Jun 24, 2018

    https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1010918677062082560?s=20

    Yikes. This isn’t my favourite possible outcome of the Tavares sweepstakes.

    I’d be extremely happy if any division rival signed him for $11M X 7.

    Pay him huge money for his 30s – we’ll pay McDavid and Drai for their 20s.

  102. Richard S.S. says:

    Connor McDavid’s Line and Leon Draisaitl’s Line should be playing 47-50 minutes in a game. The Bottom Six can suck ups what’s left. Of course that might run contrary to accepted procedures. Skating ability, two-way talent, and scoring acumen are the prime driver in today’s NHL. Eventually those who cannot do it all will fall by the wayside. Until then, each Team is stuck with what it has, but why give them minutes the better players should play.

  103. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’d be extremely happy if any division rival signed him for $11M X 7.

    Pay him huge money for his 30s – we’ll pay McDavid and Drai for their 20s.

    I dont think they can. Isles offered him 11 mil for that 35-36 year old season. This is his last big contract. The sharks pretty much have to offer him more than that.
    I’m also on board that Id be happy if a division rival paid him 12 mil a season. I for one dont think JT will age all that well.
    Theres a reason the top ages for forwards are 21 and 23. JT is only 28 but skates like he is in his 30s
    Once Burns starts slowing down I think they will struggle. Is it actually possible to shelter him any more than he is sheltered already

    I hope the Flames sign JVR and Bozak to long contracts as well.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    McSorley33:
    Don’t recognize the Oilers franchise…..they actuallly scooped up someone in the 2nd round who wa# ranked as a late first rounder…..

    Very happy with our draft, save taking yet another goalie.

    Pitlick was ranked as a late first rounder as was Benson.

    The Oilogosphere was pretty happy when Pitlick was picked as he was the BPA at 31 that year.

  105. godot10 says:

    McSorley33:
    Don’t recognize the Oilers franchise…..they actuallly scooped up someone in the 2nd round who wa# ranked as a late first rounder…..

    Very happy with our draft, save taking yet another goalie.

    Tyler Pitlick was ranked as a late first round pick that the OIlers picked up in the 2nd round.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine: Do they have room for him anywhere? Montoya, Starrett, Skinner, Wells for four spots right now. Brossoit likely doesn’t come backs. Not sure if Wells or Starrett would be on any teams trade radar right now.

    There are no roster limits in the AHL so Monotya can be on the roster and essentially not play.

    Not sure they would do that to a veteran or how the NHLPA would think about it.

    Injuries are bound to occur – i was thinking:

    Montoya/Hawkye/Skinner

    Wells/Starret

    Subject to injuries.

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Sorry, didn’t realise Couture and Thornton played D.

    That was still a good SJ team. Whilst it’s important and correct to criticize and analyze the Oilers many failures, it’s just as important to recognize what they’ve done well. And the failings in other reified franchises.

    Which is why I corrected you.

    SJS scored 14 goals that series and EDM scored 12 and you characterized it as EDM beating the crap out of SJS’s Dcorps.

    That is obviously incorrect.

  108. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Pitlick was ranked as a late first rounder as was Benson.

    The Oilogosphere was pretty happy when Pitlick was picked as he was the BPA at 31 that year.

    That Pitlick pick was fantastic. Him carving out a career after missing all that time with injuries is a clear sign that without injuries he would have had a substantial career

  109. Lowetide says:

    New at The Athletic: How close to being NHL ready is |Evan Bouchard?

    https://theathletic.com/406617/2018/06/24/lowetide-how-close-to-being-nhl-ready-is-evan-bouchard/

  110. defmn says:

    Kypreos: “I will tell you this, that the Edmonton #Oilers, as early as (Friday) morning, came close to trading up so they could secure Evan Bouchard.”
    1 reply 16 retweets 23 likes
    Chris Nichols
    ‏ @NicholsOnHockey
    1h1 hour ago

    Kypreos on #Oilers, Bouchard: “And as they watched the first five picks develop, they said, ‘We think we can get him now. We think if our projections are accurate on how we read this, we may be able to steal him at 10.'”
    1 reply 6 retweets 11 likes
    Chris Nichols
    ‏ @NicholsOnHockey
    1h1 hour ago

    Kypreos: “And sure enough, they are thrilled. They are doing back flips right now.” #Oilers

  111. deardylan says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) Rattie is likely to start the season on McDavid’s right wing but he’s not really a prospect any more and, if he is, he’s definitely behind the likes of Maksimov and Yamamoto as far a “prospect rankings” go

    2) That dead cap hit is ours for the next 3 years – nothing can be done about it

    Appreciate your answers OP

  112. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Their window is longer than a couple years.

    Ages this fall:

    Key forwards:

    JT28 (assuming he signs)
    Kane 26
    Couture 29
    Pavelski 34
    Hertl 25
    Donskoi 26
    Karlsson 27
    Meier 21

    Dmen
    Vlasic 31
    Burns 33
    Braun 31

    Goalie
    Jones 28

    The Dcorps is a little long in the tooth, but the forwards, outside of Pavelski, are all in their prime.

    How many of these guys do you get to keep when you have 40 million tied to Burns Vlasic Jones JT and Kane?
    Couture needs a new contract and a pay raise on his 6 mil. Pavelski needs a new contract so lets say hes a good guy and is happy with 6 mil which he wont be but lets say he is. So couture at 7 and Pavelski at 6 just to keep things and friendly contracts for them. You are up to 53 mil for 7 players. But wait theres more
    Hertl needs a new contract. Doubt he wants 3 mil a year. So lets just say 4 mil a year just to be friendly to the sharks. 57 mil at 8 players
    But wait theres more
    Timo Meier and Labanc are up next year. I think Meier has a huge year this year (pick him up in your keeper league later in the draft). Meier at 4 mil per (it will be more) and Labanc at 2. 63 million for 10 players.
    But hey you forgot D
    Well don’t think anyone helps them escape Braun and Dillon 7 mil more. So 70 mil for 12 players.
    Dell gets almost 2 mil. 72 mil for 13 players.

    And there lies why I’d be happy if sharks signed him. They will be leaking talent for years to come. Their team friendly deals expire next offseason.defense is top heavy. JT doesn’t make them faster

  113. deardylan says:

    OriginalPouzar: OMG – Dubrovnik in July? I’m anything but a religious man but I will pray for you.

    My understanding, is, during the summer, there will be 4-5 of these cruise ships every day.

    Kill me.

    I love travelling in the off-season.

    Didn’t know there was a off-season in Croatia – that place is a hotspot for travellers and on most must see travel lists! 😉

    If anyone doesn’t like cruise ships crowds and want a bit of an adventure head south to Albania.

  114. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide:
    New at The Athletic: How close to being NHL ready is |Evan Bouchard?

    https://theathletic.com/406617/2018/06/24/lowetide-how-close-to-being-nhl-ready-is-evan-bouchard/

    Answer is not close. Teenage D don’t help you win. You just use up their team friendly contract time and pay them earlier. Let him play in OHL for 2 years. Give him most of the following year in Ahl and then have two cheap years where he is helping you win games

  115. Drew says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I used to look at IPP for CHL Dmen quite closely as it not a bad indicator of future NHL success based on my own years of looking at the IPP of NHL Dmen from the CHL.Its not perfect though.

    IPP in this case is the % of total team goals the player got a point on.Pro-rated for the number of games the player actually played.

    I also use age and not draft year as age is more important imo.

    Here’s a few Dmen and their IPP at ages 16, 17, 18 and 19.

    The age is determined on Dec 31st of the season.Iie) Doughty turned 17 in December 2006 so his 17 year old year was his draft -1, not his draft year.Same for Bouchard (Oct birthday)

    Like any birthday cut off, its a bit arbitrary but the player spends the majority of the season “at that age” so its pretty fair imo.

    Note: IPP over 20 as a 17 is usually good and was the indicator I’d look for if a Dman was going to have a decent NHL career and over 25% at 17 is pretty rare.

    16 year old year
    Ellis 25%
    Barrie 20%
    Doughty 15%
    Dumba 11%
    Hamilton 9%
    Bouchard 8%
    Nurse 6%

    17 year old year
    Doughty 35%
    Ellis 34%
    Dumba 30%
    Hamilton 22%
    Barrie 21%
    Nurse 16%
    Bouchard 15%

    18 year old year
    Bouchard 38%
    Barrie 38%
    Hamilton 34%
    Doughty 28% (injury)
    Ellis 26% (injury)
    Dumba 25%
    Nurse 20%

    19 year old year
    Ellis – 43%
    Hamilton – 40%
    Barrie – 33%
    Dumba – 23% (26 gp only – injury and NHL games played as well)
    Nurse – 18%
    Bouchard – TBA
    Doughty – NHL

    My hope is that London’s penchant for playing their best players half the game is what stunted Bouchard’s IPP in his 16 and 17 year old years.

    His IPP in his 18 year old year is in a nice range, but its not adjusted for TOI so the same London penchant might be inflating him a bit.I don’t know.

    Players can be late developers so his 17 year old year isn’t an OMG thing, but I’d feel better if it were higher for sure.

    If Bouchard is for real (and I think he is) I expect around 40% from him this year barring injury.

    We’ll see.

    Some of the interviews done talk about this. He was behind vets and did not see ice time but did learn the game,
    If i squint i can almost see Larry Murphy type player. has good size, makes great passes and plays, with skating thats good enough.

    A quick look shows a pretty good but not great group of 19 – 20 year olds in Evan’s 17 yr season. they were all mid round picks who have moved on to see AHL and NHL time last year. His offensive numbers were as good as any on team as well.

  116. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer: Answer is not close.Teenage D don’t help you win.You just use up their team friendly contract time and pay them earlier.Let him play in OHL for 2 years.Give him most of the following year in Ahl and then have two cheap years where he is helping you win games

    The Yamamoto silliness began in the OIlogosphere the day after the draft also. Just forget about Bouchard for a year. We can enjoy him at the World Juniors and in the MemCup. Lets talk again next summer. Please.

  117. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I used to look at IPP for CHL Dmen quite closely as it not a bad indicator of future NHL success based on my own years of looking at the IPP of NHL Dmen from the CHL.Its not perfect though.

    IPP in this case is the % of total team goals the player got a point on.Pro-rated for the number of games the player actually played.

    I also use age and not draft year as age is more important imo.

    Here’s a few Dmen and their IPP at ages 16, 17, 18 and 19.

    The age is determined on Dec 31st of the season.Iie) Doughty turned 17 in December 2006 so his 17 year old year was his draft -1, not his draft year.Same for Bouchard (Oct birthday)

    Like any birthday cut off, its a bit arbitrary but the player spends the majority of the season “at that age” so its pretty fair imo.

    Note: IPP over 20 as a 17 is usually good and was the indicator I’d look for if a Dman was going to have a decent NHL career and over 25% at 17 is pretty rare.

    16 year old year
    Ellis 25%
    Barrie 20%
    Doughty 15%
    Dumba 11%
    Hamilton 9%
    Bouchard 8%
    Nurse 6%

    17 year old year
    Doughty 35%
    Ellis 34%
    Dumba 30%
    Hamilton 22%
    Barrie 21%
    Nurse 16%
    Bouchard 15%

    18 year old year
    Bouchard 38%
    Barrie 38%
    Hamilton 34%
    Doughty 28% (injury)
    Ellis 26% (injury)
    Dumba 25%
    Nurse 20%

    19 year old year
    Ellis – 43%
    Hamilton – 40%
    Barrie – 33%
    Dumba – 23% (26 gp only – injury and NHL games played as well)
    Nurse – 18%
    Bouchard – TBA
    Doughty – NHL

    My hope is that London’s penchant for playing their best players half the game is what stunted Bouchard’s IPP in his 16 and 17 year old years.

    His IPP in his 18 year old year is in a nice range, but its not adjusted for TOI so the same London penchant might be inflating him a bit.I don’t know.

    Players can be late developers so his 17 year old year isn’t an OMG thing, but I’d feel better if it were higher for sure.

    If Bouchard is for real (and I think he is) I expect around 40% from him this year barring injury.

    We’ll see.

    Do you have Pieterangelo and Bogosian? Pretty please. Those are closer comparables, I think, stylistically. Bouchard a November birthday, the oldest in his draft year. Pieterangelo, January, and Bogosian, July.

  118. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Via Chris Nichols (@NicholsOnHockey) vis Kypreos on the 31 thoughts podcast:

    @NicholsOnHockey


    So part of the latest edition of 31 Thoughts: The Podcast was recorded Friday evening, following the first round of the NHL draft. Interesting note from Nick Kypreos on the #Oilers and Evan Bouchard, as detailed in this thread…

    Kypreos: “I will tell you this, that the Edmonton #Oilers, as early as (Friday) morning, came close to trading up so they could secure Evan Bouchard.”

    Kypreos on #Oilers, Bouchard: “And as they watched the first five picks develop, they said, ‘We think we can get him now. We think if our projections are accurate on how we read this, we may be able to steal him at 10.’”

    Kypreos: “And sure enough, they are thrilled. They are doing back flips right now.” #Oilers

    Sounds like they got their man.

    In my posts about team fit I said Boqvist was a terrible fit and that Farabee would be a better choice for the. I also said the best fit players were Bouchard and Dobson but I didn’t think either would be available. But miracles do happen. And the Oilers get a very talented player who fits everything we know about the Oilers like a glove.

    I actually thought maybe the Oilers were finally figuring out how to pick “good fit” players.

    Then they pick a player who is going to be skating uphill from day one. McLeod has top ten talent. Great, great pick in that sense. But he has consistency issues, won’t use his body to engage and is a bit of a perimeter player with a detectable aversion to hard areas of the ice. Have the Oilers ever turned such a player into a useful NHL performer?

    I am betting the Oilers just wasted another high 2nd round pick. Not because McLeod doesn’t have real talent but because the Oilers do not have the culture or people to help the kid overcome his issues. He’ll have to earn his ice time by being twice as good as Drake.

    Has anyone heard Oilers management expressing joy and delight that McLeod fell to them?

  119. Scungilli Slushy says:

    In this year’s draft really only the top two are very likely to be very good or better players. Instead there was more quality running deeper down the first round.

    My point is anyone after the Swede or Russian could not meet the bet. The super high skill D are small, the other top winger has question marks with fitness, the other top winger is a one way player, the top C may turn out no better than McLeod.

    I’m very happy with Bouchard because he has everything he needs to be a great player. There are no big question marks around his game, he played a ton as well so we know he has stamina, his backwards skating is top notch.

    I’d have been more worried about Boqvist Smith or Hughes turning out more like Schultz than Ellis or Spurgeon. I love the idea of a strong two way offensive D with NHL size to complete a currently very nice group of young D.

  120. Glass says:

    Is there any team that would be interested in Sekera? Clears cap space for FA’s. We can alternate between giving Russell and Benning looks at 2RD.

  121. Ryan says:

    Alpine: I’d add Labanc (21) and Tierney (23) as potential key forwards. Both got to 40 points last season. Labanc in particular looks like a real nice find in the 6th. Sharks seem have a lot of late round picks who are tracking really well for their draft position. There’s a decent cluster of 20-22 yr olds on their AHL team who had either solid seasons or decent cameos.

    That team definitely has the ‘smart organization’ tag going for them to aid their pursuit of Tavares. The Isles’ draft would make me feel a lot better about their future if I were JT and I think he ends up staying out there. But I can see why the Sharks look good in terms of having enough left to compete for a Cup for a couple seasons and then not see a huge drop off if they can mainline some drafted gems through the Barracuda.

    Dellow wrote a brilliant article about the Sharks organization back in ?09.

    It highlighted certain measures like the cost in salary spent on wins for NHL teams. The Sharks were on the good end of the spectrum while the Oilers were on the far other side.

    He also mentioned many of the internal databases that the Sharks had.

    Iirc, they were using player aging curves, sophisticated valuations in salary for point production for players and all manner of sophistication.

    I’d be surprised if the Oilers today have caught up with the processes that the Sharks were using a decade ago.

  122. Wilde says:

    Glass:
    Is there any team that would be interested in Sekera? Clears cap space for FA’s. We can alternate between giving Russell and Benning looks at 2RD.

    Buffalo, Chicago, St. Louis, Florida… based on roster deficiencies purely.

    Also nobody does 5M differential deals except floor teams looking to extract prospects, though and it’s tough with Sekera’s close to the season.

    —————————————————————————————|

    Bob McKenzie

    Verified account

    @TSNBobMcKenzie

    1 minute ago

    John Carlson on verge of re-signing in WSH. 8 year deal.

    ————————————————————————————–|

    That’s two of the three big fish, outside O’Reilly who’s a different situation due to term.

    e: Deal is 8×8

  123. defmn says:

    Bob McKenzie

    ‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie
    2m2 minutes ago

    AAV will be $8M

  124. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    In this year’s draft really only the top two are very likely to be very good or better players. Instead there was more quality running deeper down the first round.

    My point is anyone after the Swede or Russian could not meet the bet. The super high skill D are small, the other top winger has question marks with fitness, the other top winger is a one way player, the top C may turn out no better than McLeod.

    I’m very happy with Bouchard because he has everything he needs to be a great player. There are no big question marks around his game, he played a ton as well so we know he has stamina, his backwards skating is top notch.

    I’d have been more worried about Boqvist Smith or Hughes turning out more like Schultz than Ellis or Spurgeon. I love the idea of a strong two way offensive D with NHL size to complete a currently very nice group of young D.

    I’d say Quinn Hughes was a better college defender as a freshman than Schultz was as a junior.

    Boqvist I agree with you on, though, would have been a more frightening pick for the Oilers than even Merkley imo

  125. Wilde says:

    I’d like it if the Oilers pressed hard on Burakovsky here.

  126. Pretendergast says:

    Andy Strickland

    Verified
    @andystrickland
    Jeff Skinner controlling where he’ll eventually end up. Turned down a few trades #canes

    /
    I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oil were rejected, didn’t know Skinner had an NMC.

  127. Wilde says:

    Wilde:
    I’d like it if the Oilers pressed hard on Burakovsky here.

    Just kidding, Washington’s cap is not a problem at all.

    It’s so sad to look at the Cup winner and see their cap in much better shape than ours.

  128. Woogie63 says:

    Oilers and Flames are not participating in this year’s Young Stars Tournament in Penticton,any word on what is replacing that tournament for these teams?

  129. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pretendergast:
    Andy Strickland

    Verified
    @andystrickland
    Jeff Skinner controlling where he’ll eventually end up. Turned down a few trades #canes

    /
    I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oil were rejected, didn’t know Skinner had an NMC.

    If he did what’s he thinking? A contract coming up, would play with either the best offensive player now or a big body supreme passing centre and Skinner is a scorer. Money in the bank IMO.

  130. leadfarmer says:

    Pretendergast:
    Andy Strickland

    Verified
    @andystrickland
    Jeff Skinner controlling where he’ll eventually end up. Turned down a few trades #canes

    /
    I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oil were rejected, didn’t know Skinner had an NMC.

    How were we going to make that work cap wise

  131. Woogie63 says:

    Wilde: Just kidding, Washington’s cap is not a problem at all.

    It’s so sad to look at the Cup winner and see their cap in much better shape than ours.

    McDavid contract will take a few years of cap increases just like Crosby

  132. RonnieB says:

    Wilde: Just kidding, Washington’s cap is not a problem at all.

    It’s so sad to look at the Cup winner and see their cap in much better shape than ours.

    Following the Carlsson signing the Capitals have about $13 million to sign 3 D, including Bowey and Kempny, and 4 F, including Smith-Pelley and Wilson, and a backup goaie. You probably couldn’t squeeze Burakovsky out of them, but maybe Connolly for Montoya + Aberg ( or Rattie ? ).

  133. Drew says:

    Woogie63: McDavid contract will take a few years of cap increases just like Crosby

    the McDavid contract is a variable to be considered but is not the problem, it’s been the death by a thousand cuts issues; Russel, Lucic, unproven backup for 2.5M, even the extra million for Drai, etc that are killing the Oilers today

  134. Richard S.S. says:

    leadfarmer,

    That makes 5 years in Junior, doing what? Being bored.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10:

    16 year old year
    Ellis 25%
    Barrie 20%
    Bogosian 17%
    Pietrangelo 16%
    Doughty 15%
    Dumba 11%
    Hamilton 9%
    Bouchard 8%
    Nurse 6%

    17 year old year
    Doughty 35%
    Bogosian 35%
    Ellis 34%
    Dumba 30%
    Pietrangelo 22%
    Hamilton 22%
    Barrie 21%
    Nurse 16%
    Bouchard 15%

    18 year old year
    Bouchard 38%
    Barrie 38%
    Hamilton 34%
    Doughty 28% (injury)
    Ellis 26% (injury)
    Pietrangelo 26%
    Dumba 25%
    Nurse 20%
    Bogosian NHL (bad teams do bad things)

    19 year old year
    Ellis – 43%
    Hamilton – 40%
    Barrie – 33%
    Pietrangelo 24%
    Dumba – 23% (26 gp only – injury and NHL games played as well)
    Nurse – 18%
    Bouchard – TBA
    Doughty – NHL
    Bogosian – NHL

  136. Woogie63 says:

    Drew: the McDavid contract is a variable to be considered but is not the problem, it’s been the death by a thousand cuts issues; Russel, Lucic, unproven backup for 2.5M, even the extra million for Drai, etc that are killing the Oilers today

    If we have the same top 10 scorer in the NHL in 18/19 here are the differences in salaries. This is more than a variable.

    McDavid $12.5M
    Giroux $8.275M ($4.275M)
    Kucherov $4.77M ($7.73M)
    Malkin $9.5M ($3.0M)
    Mackinnon $6.3M ($6.2M)
    Hall $6M ($6.5M)
    Kopitar $10M ($2.5M)
    Kessel $8.0 ($4.5M) edit
    Wheeler$5.6M ($6.9M)
    Crosby $8.7M ($3.8M)

  137. Pretendergast says:

    leadfarmer,

    Looch, they retain, Sekera.
    trade Montoya in a separate deal for a sandwhich.

    Plenty of ways to get creative, if Milan says yes Waddell would love him.

    Cost would probably go up because of Looch’s contract but its a one year deal so maybe a deadline deal with a third party ala Brassard to keep the money under and asset cost palpable.

    Evander Kane was given up for a late first, if we’re in the thick of it (hopefully) it’d be a grand old add.

  138. godot10 says:

    Woogie63: If we have the same top 10 scorer in the NHL in 18/19 here are the differences in salaries.This is more than a variable.

    McDavid $12.5M
    Giroux $8.275M ($4.275M)
    Kucherov $4.77M ($7.73M)
    Malkin $9.5M ($3.0M)
    Mackinnon $6.3M ($6.2M)
    Hall $6M ($6.5M)
    Kopitar $10M ($2.5M)
    Kessel $6.8M ($5.7M)
    Wheeler$5.6M ($6.9M)
    Crosby $8.7M ($3.8M)

    Kessel earns $8 million per season.

  139. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If Bouchard is for real (and I think he is) I expect around 40% from him this year barring injury.
    We’ll see.

    That’s a lot of NHL goals to be in on, during one’s rookie season.

    😉

  140. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: Kessel earns $8 million per season.

    .
    You are correct, forgot TML are paying part of his salary

  141. Drew says:

    Woogie63: If we have the same top 10 scorer in the NHL in 18/19 here are the differences in salaries.This is more than a variable.

    McDavid $12.5M
    Giroux $8.275M ($4.275M)
    Kucherov $4.77M ($7.73M)
    Malkin $9.5M ($3.0M)
    Mackinnon $6.3M ($6.2M)
    Hall $6M ($6.5M)
    Kopitar $10M ($2.5M)
    Kessel $6.8M ($5.7M)
    Wheeler$5.6M ($6.9M)
    Crosby $8.7M ($3.8M)

    In the business’s I run I pay the top performers very very well and everyone else fairly,

    if MacD is 10% overpaid (for argument’s sake) I would live with it. Russell is what 50 – 100% overpaid and has movement limitations, Lucic is 100% overpaid with limitations as well etc I fight those battles everyday not the MacD contract. His contract is a variable to be considered but not the problem we face today.

    Also, the next contract for Hall, Mackinnon will look nothing like their current one. If you think that the issue with MacD contract is the same as the other “errors” made by Chia I respectfully disagree.

  142. The Trade Guy says:

    If anyone was worth the max in this league it’s McDavid.

    His contract is no issue whatsoever.

  143. Oil2Oilers says:

    LT, thanks for all you do, but especially on draft weekend. You are my go to draft expert.

    I am happy with how the weekend turned out. Big mistake trades and walk about picks were avoided, the rest is wait an see.

    For the next two weeks or so my wish list is;

    Good health for the kids coming to camp next weekend, Benson most of all.

    Lucic traded with out too a painful sweetener (Lucic + for Faulk would be ideal)

    Sign Rieder to replace Lucic as 2LW playing with Draisaitl

    Sign Shawn Matthias to be a mirror man with Khaira on 3LW/4C

  144. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    Well at least if we are to continue ignoring the USNDP we are shopping heavy in the OHL

    Most of the great RHD come out of Ontario, and that’s a fact.

  145. Woogie63 says:

    Drew: In the business’s I run I pay the top performers very very well and everyone else fairly,

    if MacD is 10% overpaid (for argument’s sake) I would live with it. Russell is what 50 – 100% overpaid and has movement limitations, Lucic is 100% overpaid with limitations as well etc I fight those battles everyday not the MacD contract. His contract is a variable to be considered but not the problem we face today.

    Also, the next contract for Hall, Mackinnon will look nothing like their current one. If you think that the issue with MacD contract is the same as the other “errors” made by Chia I respectfully disagree.

    Not sure that example works in this case. We are paying for future UFA year’s with this contract. I am sure year 5-8 we will love the value of the McDavid contract. This year we are paying much more than the 10% premium you reference.

  146. Drew says:

    Yes, I agree to a point. But MacD has no peer group if you look at recent contracts like Eichel’s 10M and the Drai 8.5M those are harder to live with. Others performance will occasionally come close to MacD but not consistently match it so all in all his is a single outlier. (in my opinion)

    In terms of value to the organization, the MacD contract exceeds his performance on the ice. I believe that the other market access he provides while in the oiler silks add revenue $ to the OEG bottom line.

    If I was Bruce Wayne id merrily skip all the way to the bank knowing I add this asset under control for 8 years.

    I’d then take Chia out into the alley for the other terrible contracts he has saddled the team with. those are mistakes, the MacD contract is the cost of having the very best in your dressing room.

  147. Drew says:

    Woogie63: Yes, I agree to a point. But MacD has no peer group if you look at recent contracts like Eichel’s 10M and the Drai 8.5M those are harder to live with. Others performance will occasionally come close to MacD but not consistently match it so all in all his is a single outlier. (in my opinion)

    In terms of value to the organization, the MacD contract exceeds his performance on the ice. I believe that the other market access he provides while in the oiler silks add revenue $ to the OEG bottom line.

    If I was Bruce Wayne id merrily skip all the way to the bank knowing I add this asset under control for 8 years.

    I’d then take Chia out into the alley for the other terrible contracts he has saddled the team with. those are mistakes, the MacD contract is the cost of having the very best in your dressing room.

    Yes, I agree to a point as well. But MacD has no peer group if you look at recent contracts like Eichel’s 10M and the Drai 8.5M those are harder to live with. Others performance will occasionally come close to MacD but not consistently match it so all in all his is a single outlier. (in my opinion)

    In terms of value to the organization, the MacD contract exceeds his performance on the ice. I believe that the other market access he provides while in the oiler silks add revenue $ to the OEG bottom line.

    If I was Bruce Wayne id merrily skip all the way to the bank knowing I add this asset under control for 8 years.

    I’d then take Chia out into the alley for the other terrible contracts he has saddled the team with. those are mistakes, the MacD contract is the cost of having the very best in your dressing room.

    Thank you for the very agreeable disagreement! 🙂

  148. Drew says:

    Drew: Yes, I agree to a point as well. But MacD has no peer group if you look at recent contracts like Eichel’s 10M and the Drai 8.5M those are harder to live with. Others performance will occasionally come close to MacD but not consistently match it so all in all his is a single outlier. (in my opinion)

    In terms of value to the organization, the MacD contract exceeds his performance on the ice. I believe that the other market access he provides while in the oiler silks add revenue $ to the OEG bottom line.

    If I was Bruce Wayne id merrily skip all the way to the bank knowing I add this asset under control for 8 years.

    I’d then take Chia out into the alley for the other terrible contracts he has saddled the team with. those are mistakes, the MacD contract is the cost of having the very best in your dressing room.
    thank you for the very agreeable disagreement!

  149. leadfarmer says:

    Pretendergast,

    Yeah but then you have to re-sign him in a year and then you need to give Talbot or another goalie money and then JP needs a contract.
    I still stand by my we are 4 years, (it’s 3 years now from really competing). Cap will keep going up decreasing the Mcdavid and drai contracts. Need to keep drafting well and we’re waiting for Lucic compliance buyout Russell contract expiration and Sekera trade

  150. leadfarmer says:

    Woogie63: If we have the same top 10 scorer in the NHL in 18/19 here are the differences in salaries.This is more than a variable.

    McDavid $12.5M
    Giroux $8.275M ($4.275M)
    Kucherov $4.77M ($7.73M)
    Malkin $9.5M ($3.0M)
    Mackinnon $6.3M ($6.2M)
    Hall $6M ($6.5M)
    Kopitar $10M ($2.5M)
    Kessel $8.0 ($4.5M) edit
    Wheeler$5.6M ($6.9M)
    Crosby $8.7M ($3.8M)

    Guys who sign contracts 5 years ago always look cheaper than guys who sign contracts now and in turn look better than guys who sign in 5 years.

  151. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Just catching up on the whole draft weekend: LT thank for all you do:

    – Bouchard: I have no doubt if Sek circa 2016 aka turd-polisher shows up this camp, then Bouchard has a real shot: temptation will be too great, the Oil be all oily in “rushing” 1st every chance

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sek-Bouchard
    Russel

    – I’m glad they took Evan over Wahlstrom: whose apparently going to Harvard. Smart kid, and what if he decides to graduate? How many Harvard 1st rounders are there?

    – The Rodrigue move reminded me of my fantasy football league draft. After a certain amount of rounds, you look at the position players who are available and you decide not much there. Once the first guy starts drafting LB’s and D, the other teams follow suit: good read of market IMO

    – Still bothers me a bit the Oil connection with the G though, but his Dad said all the right things about not wanting to be part of process, stepping out of room, etc: who knows.

    – McLeod was consensus 1st round pick: seems like a good bet to replace Strome in a few years

    – Drafting D, C’s and G’s: that’s how you build hockey teams.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Pretendergast,

    Yeah but then you have to re-sign him in a year and then you need to give Talbot or another goalie money and then JP needs a contract.
    I still stand by my we are 4 years, (it’s 3 years now from really competing). Cap will keep going up decreasing the Mcdavid and drai contracts. Need to keep drafting well and we’re waiting for Lucic compliance buyout Russell contract expiration and Sekera trade

    Russell will either need to be traded or, more likely, bought out prior to the last year of his contract.

    Given current organizational make-up, it would be egregious to protect him in the expansion draft as we’d be leaving unprotected an highly more valuable player.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I’m glad they took Evan over Wahlstrom: whose apparently going to Harvard.Smart kid, and what if he decides to graduate?How many Harvard 1st rounders are there?

    Adam Fox plays at Harvard and he’s one of the top D prospects out there.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rodrigue’s dad being in the organization is a non-factor – he is, by almost all accounts, the top goalie in the draft. Given the trade for yet another goalie after him, its pretty clear building goalie depth in the organization is important to the GM – grabing the top goalie available is a good way to do that.

    He has two more years before he will be turning pro – good stagger with our existing pool of tenders.

  155. rickithebear says:

    It is everyone’s favourite class!
    Goal Diff math!

    This one goes out to Lead farmer.

    Edmonton Oilers
    Goals For type – 17/18 – 16/17 – 15/16 – 14/15
    Even goals for – 172 – 172 – 141 – 134
    Power play GF – 31 – 56 – 43 – 41
    SH Goals for – 10 – 4 – 5 – 4
    Our EN GF – 4 – 0 – 4 – 4
    Opp EN GF – 11 – 10 – 5 – 6
    Total goal for – 229 – 243 – 199 – 193
    Goal for/gm – 2.79 – 2.96 – 2.43 – 2.35

    Edmonton Oilers
    Goals Against type – 17/18 – 16/17 – 15/16 – 14/15
    Even goals against – 182- 146 – 176 – 182
    Power play Goal A – 31 – 56 – 43 – 41
    PK Goals Against – 5 – 5 – 7 – 7
    Our EN G Against – 11 – 8 – 11 – 9
    Opp EN G Against – 6 – 5 – 0 – 2
    Total goal Against – 262 – 207 – 242 – 276
    Goal against/gm – 3.20 – 2.52 – 2.95 – 3.37

    Can we see any goal diff area were on its own it would have made a difference this year relative to team avg .

    The answer is one.
    It requires 0 Personel changes to get back in the playoffs.

    It is called even HD defence.
    3 years without we need 3gf to break even.
    The 1 year with 1/2 the games need 2 gf and 1/2 need 3gf.

    Lead you spouted for this last month.
    I hoped you would ?
    Look at were our goal diff failing was.

    A clear example of HD change and its result.
    Your anti HD is a joke.
    But in that have a beer after (rugby/fight club) way. 😇

  156. VOR says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Just catching up on the whole draft weekend: LT thank for all you do:

    – Bouchard: I have no doubt if Sek circa 2016 aka turd-polisher shows up this camp, then Bouchard has a real shot: temptation will be too great, the Oil be all oily in “rushing” 1st every chance

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sek-Bouchard
    Russel

    – I’m glad they took Evan over Wahlstrom: whose apparently going to Harvard.Smart kid, and what if he decides to graduate?How many Harvard 1st rounders are there?

    – The Rodrigue move reminded me of my fantasy football league draft.After a certain amount of rounds, you look at the position players who are available and you decide not much there.Once the first guy starts drafting LB’s and D, the other teams follow suit: good read of market IMO

    – Still bothers me a bit the Oil connection with the G though, but his Dad said all the right things about not wanting to be part of process, stepping out of room, etc: who knows.

    – McLeod was consensus 1st round pick: seems like a good bet to replace Strome in a few years

    – Drafting D, C’s and G’s: that’s how you build hockey teams.

    I am sure you know the story of the most famous Harvard first rounder of all time, Gord Kluzak.

    Born in Climax, Saskatchewan he attended high school in Wilcox, That would be Athol Murray College of Notre Dame for those who don’t know the program.

    Then he played for two years for the Billings Bighorns. At which point he blew his knee out and was out of hockey for more than a year.

    This is about the time it became apparent Gord was a bit different from other junior players. He was obsessed with economic theory. He once was asked who his favorite author was and without missing a beat says Thorstein Veblen and proceeds to quote from Theory of the Leisure Class.

    Despite the knee problems Harry Sinden drafted Gord #1 OV. Turned out Gord had the game but 11 knee surgeries later he was one of the most famous draft busts of all time. You could let that define you or you could do what Gord did.

    He got a degree in Economics from Harvard and worked for the State Lottery. Then he got an MBA from Harvard and became a quant for Goldman Sachs. Last I heard he was working on a PhD from Harvard in Economics. He’s got some years to go but you’ve got to admire his drive. And he does colour commentary to keep his hand in hockey. And he has a unique perspective as you might imagine.

    I guess what I am saying is having high academic aspirations and the mental tools to thrive in an academic environment doesn’t preclude a career in professional sports.

  157. rickithebear says:

    So while thier is Personel driven angst to chase even offence that is not the issue.
    I continue to push for dmen who maintain HD def performance while chasing transition passing.
    A dman on pp. who is not a QB but has a SH% comparable to forwards on PP.
    Running a proper PK system.

  158. VOR says:

    Can anyone tell me the most NHL games played by a Harvard Grad?

    First hint: he’s played for ten teams.

    Second hint: he was drafted 99th OV.

    Third hint: he missed more than a year of NHL hockey nursing his dying wive.

    Fourth hint: he has played over 800 games in the NHL.

  159. frjohnk says:

    VOR:
    Can anyone tell me the most NHL games played by a Harvard Grad?

    First hint: he’s played for ten teams.

    Second hint: he was drafted 99th OV.

    Third hint: he missed more than a year of NHL hockey nursing his dying wive.

    Fourth hint: he has played over 800 games in the NHL.

    Moore?

  160. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I believe Bouchard is only eligible for one more junior year and then would go to the A

  161. rickithebear says:

    WG:
    Early on at this site thier were prospects between 2008 to 2011 that had me question thier offensive ability and supported by the blog view.
    I thought to look at thier % of line even offence.
    I never look at the team as a whole.
    You are bound by the ability of your linemates, opposition faced which has a baseline.

  162. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I used to look at IPP for CHL Dmen quite closely as it not a bad indicator of future NHL success based on my own years of looking at the IPP of NHL Dmen from the CHL.Its not perfect though.

    IPP in this case is the % of total team goals the player got a point on.Pro-rated for the number of games the player actually played.

    I also use age and not draft year as age is more important imo.

    Here’s a few Dmen and their IPP at ages 16, 17, 18 and 19.

    The age is determined on Dec 31st of the season.Iie) Doughty turned 17 in December 2006 so his 17 year old year was his draft -1, not his draft year.Same for Bouchard (Oct birthday)

    Like any birthday cut off, its a bit arbitrary but the player spends the majority of the season “at that age” so its pretty fair imo.

    Note: IPP over 20 as a 17 is usually good and was the indicator I’d look for if a Dman was going to have a decent NHL career and over 25% at 17 is pretty rare.

    16 year old year
    Ellis 25%
    Barrie 20%
    Doughty 15%
    Dumba 11%
    Hamilton 9%
    Bouchard 8%
    Nurse 6%

    17 year old year
    Doughty 35%
    Ellis 34%
    Dumba 30%
    Hamilton 22%
    Barrie 21%
    Nurse 16%
    Bouchard 15%

    18 year old year
    Bouchard 38%
    Barrie 38%
    Hamilton 34%
    Doughty 28% (injury)
    Ellis 26% (injury)
    Dumba 25%
    Nurse 20%

    19 year old year
    Ellis – 43%
    Hamilton – 40%
    Barrie – 33%
    Dumba – 23% (26 gp only – injury and NHL games played as well)
    Nurse – 18%
    Bouchard – TBA
    Doughty – NHL

    My hope is that London’s penchant for playing their best players half the game is what stunted Bouchard’s IPP in his 16 and 17 year old years.

    His IPP in his 18 year old year is in a nice range, but its not adjusted for TOI so the same London penchant might be inflating him a bit.I don’t know.

    Players can be late developers so his 17 year old year isn’t an OMG thing, but I’d feel better if it were higher for sure.

    If Bouchard is for real (and I think he is) I expect around 40% from him this year barring injury.

    We’ll see.

    I really should use Word to write my post and then cut and paste, lost everything I just wrote when I hit the touch pad, grrrrr.

    I will abbreviate what I wrote.

    I am concerned with Bouchard’s dzone coverage, in a Youtube video he didn’t look good, but context is everything, perhaps he was ill or fatigued. These snippets were taken from several games at the end of the year and in the playoffs. But we apparently have a dman whisperer in the fold now, along with Mr. Coffey, so he should be in decent hands. We will know pretty quick. Is anyone going to watch development camp this week?

    I also took at look at Doughty vs Bouchard’s OHL careers and honestly, Doughty had very little help on his teams. He had Ryan Malone as a 20 year old in his 16 yr old season and a 102 game NHL dman named Ryan Parent on his team as the only players of note. I didn’t even look at Bouchard’s 16 yr old roster, because London was the Mem Cup Champs that season.

    As far as 17 year old seasons, Doughty had even less help and led his team in scoring by 12 pts. There were 4 drafted players on Guelph’s roster, aside from Doughty these players played a total of 1 NHL game. Bouchard, however, played on a team with 7 drafted defensemen, most notably Victor Mete, who played 49 NHL games as a 19 yr old and Olli Juolevi, who played in 39 SM Liiga games as a 19 yr old this season.

    In his 18 yr old season, Doughty again had no help with 5 on this roster eventually being NHL draft picks, but 3 (Peter Holland, Taylor Beck and Ben Chariot) were in their 16 yr old seasons.

    Not quite the same for Bouchard this past year, but after 36 games much of the experienced forward talent had been traded and Bouchard was basically left on his own to lead his team. Based on this it wouldn’t take too much of a leap of logic to think that if he had more than 25 games of Max Jones (18 goals), 27 games of Robert Thomas (20 goals), 35 games of Sam Militec (16 goals) and 36 games of Cliff Pu (16 goals), we’d likely be looking at a 100+ point season and a top 5 pick (and who knows what impact this would have had on Liam Foudy’s draft position).

    Anyway, food for thought…..

  163. VOR says:

    frjohnk: Moore?

    Yup, Dominic Moore. One of five Harvard Crimson players to have NHL careers. Anyone know the other four?

  164. Richard S.S. says:

    Draft Picks who go the “Education Route” play a bit of a shorter Season and fewer games. At least in the “minors” or in the AHL prospects play a similar season and a similar number of games as the NHL should/does.

  165. VOR says:

    I wanted to talk about my concept of fit.

    As an example of a team that uses fit in making drafting decisions, consider the Philadelphia Flyers.

    At 14 they take Joel Farabee. I know there was a lot of talk about him being Sam Gagner. Well sure if Sam Gagner ever played F1 or Captained a National Team, or was a total prick to play against or did the heavy lifting so other people could cheat for offence. Philadelphia drafts forwards who play F1, do the heavy lifting, and are hard to play against.

    Then they take the kid from Thayer Academy. In an interview he says if you take the puck from him he’ll break your ankle to get it back. A kid who produces big numbers while playing F1. He has a rep for never giving up on the play.

    Then they take a defensive defenceman Adam Ginning who se comparable is Adam Larsson. Not as much offence but similar styles. But he is actually a really good skater.

    A pattern emerges after a while. Fast, hard to play against, insanely competitive. It is like there are drafting a team of Radko Gudas types. With some Sean Couturiers thrown in.

    They aren’t drafting BPA. They are drafting the BPA that fits their culture, playing style and development system.

  166. Oz says:

    VOR,

    So BPA could be defined as “fit”, and by extension the oilers achieved that with their first round selection.
    BPA is likely different between each team

  167. smellyglove says:

    Woodguy – thanks for your very solid work on enumerating prospect season comparables for Bouchard. Very illuminating. So far, what do we know? Evan Bouchard hit the ball out of the park in his 18 yo season. His 17 yo season is comparable to Nurse. His 16 yo season is lacking. Offensively speaking of course.

    We know the London Knights won the Memorial Cup in 2016, during Bouchard’s 16 yo season. Some have speculated that he wasn’t getting ice time, which could impact his totals. Here are some notable D on the team, who exceeded Bouchard in point totals during the regular season:

    Olli Juolevi
    2016 round 1 #5 overall by Vancouver Canucks

    Victor Mete
    2016 round 4 #100 overall by Montréal Canadiens

    Brandon Crawley
    2017 round 4 #123 overall by New York Rangers

    Chris Martenet
    2015 round 4 #103 overall by Dallas Stars

    Nicolas Mattinen
    2016 round 6 #179 overall by Toronto Maple Leafs

    So, during the 2015-16 OHL season, Bouchard was playing with/behind players who were a) older and b) destined to be drafted in the NHL. Evan’s boxscores were very lacking during that season, including for the playoffs and memorial cup, he was the #4 point-getting Dman on his team.

  168. rickithebear says:

    VOR:
    Patriot s & now Lions draft players with mechanisms & base repeatability for championship based roster structures.

    This year thier was a slight decrease in goalie equipment size.
    Which leads to a more dramatic increase in open shot area in net Elevation.
    A reduction in HD:LD ratio.
    Increases the shot success distance for HD.
    A dramatic jump in goals per game.

    You select for a culture that works
    But you must be adaptive to change.

    But thier is an approach that work by very structure of the game.
    K. Lowe stated years ago that they chased forwards early in the Katz era.
    Cause they could not afford to keep them before.

    But Quickly figured you build down the middle.
    Goal – 2D – C
    Always will.

  169. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I believe Bouchard is only eligible for one more junior year and then would go to the A

    He’s technically eligible for 2 (possibly 3…) more CHL years (OHL), but the 2nd year would also be when he’s eligible for AHL full-time so those years are negligible.

    OHL and QMJHL can have players aged from 16-21, while WHL is a bit different with players aged from 15-20 (there are caveats in all Leagues as to how many Underagers – 15 & 16 yos – and Overagers – 20 & 21 yos – you can have and play). Barring exceptional status, of course.

  170. Richard S.S. says:

    Bouchard had the 4th most defensive points in 2016 and possibly less minutes than the top three. He played on a loaded Team. So how does he rank on his team in the overall in points and minutes. It fine to say he didn’t have a good year in 2016. Please use more data when it’s more than just an opinion.

  171. OilHub says:

    Professor Q:
    I think G depth is very good. It’s just a battle to figure out best playing arrangements and staggering promotions properly.

    Brossoit likely gone (that’s why I was wondering about a possible trade earlier; maybe even without the Talbot rumours), Ellis retired and moved on, etc. means that grabbing the best G prospect in the draft in Rodrigue (family notwithstanding) and trading for Hawkey seem like pretty good bets to wait a few years for. Or maybe they impress earlier!

    Hey guys, long time lurker.. very seldom poster!
    First of to LT, thanks so much for such an incredible atmosphere and “community”, as someone else earlier said there are a lot of incredibly knowledge posters.
    Thanks

    Professor or anyone way smarter than I regarding Cap crap..
    If LB is gone and we waiver Montoya (who doesn’t get claimed in this senario), what would the cap savings be?
    Could we also then trade Milan( 800-1.5 retained) Cooper Marody and Hawden Hawkey to Carolina for Skinner and a lesser prospect?

    Thoughts….? Again thanks for your work here and the Athletic.

  172. Richard S.S. says:

    Bouchard’s 2017 Season was good but a comparison of points and minutes would really help.
    His 2018 Season was amazing. But at some point in the Season, other Teams will know he’s the “big guy”, the one they need to stop. That makes it sure he gets his nine games this year if healthy. Of that I have no doubts.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I believe Bouchard is only eligible for one more junior year and then would go to the A

    He could go back to junior as an over-ager in his draft plus 2 year but he will be eligible for the AHL at that point which would clearly be the better place for him.

    Its not really junior eligibility that’s the issue but eligibility for the AHL (must turn 20 by December 31).

  174. Soup Fascist says:

    VOR: I am sure you know the story of the most famous Harvard first rounder of all time, Gord Kluzak.

    Born in Climax, Saskatchewan he attended high school in Wilcox, That would be Athol Murray College of Notre Dame for those who don’t know the program.

    Then he played for two years for the Billings Bighorns. At which point he blew his knee out and was out of hockey for more than a year.

    This is about the time it became apparent Gord was a bit different from other junior players. He was obsessed with economic theory. He once was asked who his favorite author was and without missing a beat says Thorstein Veblen and proceeds to quote from Theory of the Leisure Class.

    Despite the knee problems Harry Sinden drafted Gord#1 OV. Turned out Gord had the game but 11 knee surgeries later he was one of the most famous draft busts of all time. You could let that define you or you could do what Gord did.

    He got a degree in Economics from Harvard and worked for the State Lottery. Then he got an MBA from Harvard and became a quant for Goldman Sachs. Last I heard he was working on a PhD from Harvard in Economics. He’s got some years to go but you’ve got to admire his drive. And he does colour commentary to keep his hand in hockey. And he has a unique perspective as you might imagine.

    I guess what I am saying is having high academic aspirations and the mental tools to thrive in an academic environment doesn’t preclude a career in professional sports.

    Kluzak sounds like the kind of guy who would rather go to a museum than to a Moxies. What a pathetic loser.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilHub: Hey guys, long time lurker.. very seldom poster!
    First of to LT, thanks so much for such an incredible atmosphere and “community”, as someone else earlier said there are a lot of incredibly knowledge posters.
    Thanks

    Professor or anyone way smarter than I regarding Cap crap..
    If LB is gone and we waiver Montoya (who doesn’t get claimed in this senario), what would the cap savings be?
    Could we also then trade Milan( 800-1.5 retained) Cooper Marody and Hawden Hawkey to Carolina for Skinner and a lesser prospect?

    Thoughts….? Again thanks for your work here and the Athletic.

    The cap savings for a player on a one-way contract that is in the minors is equal to the league minimum salary plus $375K. Last year the league minimum was $650K I believe so it will be around that this year – so, essentially, the cap hit for Montoya will be apx $50K while he’s in the minors.

    I wouldn’t make that trade above – I think Cooper Marody is going to be a diamond in the rough – a solid 3/4C at the NHL level within a year or two.

    Skinner has one year left and then will need a new contract and will likely be even more expensive.

  176. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: The cap savings for a player on a one-way contract that is in the minors is equal to the league minimum salary plus $375K.Last year the league minimum was $650K I believe so it will be around that this year – so, essentially, the cap hit for Montoya will be apx $50K while he’s in the minors.

    I wouldn’t make that trade above – I think Cooper Marody is going to be a diamond in the rough – a solid 3/4C at the NHL level within a year or two.

    Skinner has one year left and then will need a new contract and will likely be even more expensive.

    You wouldn’t sacrifice Marody to dump 5 years of Lucic?
    I think I do that in a heartbeat.

  177. Marc says:

    Pierre LeBrun

    Verified account

    @PierreVLeBrun
    12h12 hours ago
    More
    Carlson contract year by year: 18/19, $6.5M SB, $5.5M salary, total $12 M; 19/20, $6.5M SB, $5.5 M salary, $12 M total; 20/21, $2 M SB, $6M salary, $8M total; 21/22, $5M SB, $3M salary, $8M total; 22/23 through 25/26 seasons, $2M SB, $4M salary, $6M total for each year

    Another buyout resistant contract.

    No way Washington ends up regretting that…

  178. Marc says:

    VOR,

    I don’t.

    But I do know that Dartmouth has produced more than twice as many NHLers than our Crimson rivals.

    Go Big Green! 🙂

  179. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR,

    – Vor – thanks for the story about Kluzak.

    – I don’t think my point about Harvard was clear: I wasn’t calling him out for going to Harvard, but rather for the Oil choosing between LHD, and scoring winger (both needs), and one says: “I think I’m ready for the NHL next year”, and the other one says: “I want to get an education at Harvard”, I think the tie goes to the guy who wants to be in the NHL next year

    – Don’t get me wrong, getting into Harvard is a great feat, Walstrom must be an amazing guy. But as we’ve seen with Hamilton in Calgary: smart guys are the minority in hockey

    – So between Walstrom and Bouchard: I applaud the Oil for making what I think is the right choice, given all the available information.

  180. hags9k says:

    Thanks to LT and many posters (Jaxon, Gerta) for great draft coverage.

    I just have to get one thing off my chest…

    Bridging Nurse is a mistake. Lock him up now at a better hit.

    Ok I feel better now, carry on.

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