(You and me) Sittin’ in the back of my memory

In 1979, the NHL folded four WHA teams into the great league, turning 17 into 21. A flood of free agents appeared, as veterans from the now defunct teams were pushing for work. The NHL also reduced the draft to six rounds (from 22 rounds) and moved the draft age from 20 to 18. Imagine a world with (suddenly) 85 new jobs, turning the league into an employment pool of 440. Now. Imagine the 350 (or so) men who cashed their paycheck in the 1978-79 NHL looking over their shoulder at about 80 displaced men in search of jobs and another 100 or so graduating juniors who were cheap, fast and hungry. It was a mess but astute teams and players found each other. Edmonton found Charlie Huddy, and he rewarded them with years of sublime efficiency. Time to find another.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

NHLE FORWARDS

  • A year ago, Kailer Yamamoto was the leading junior NHLE performer (36.2), he was one of five men over 30.0 NHLE. Joe Gambardella (NCAA-39.5); Tyler Vesel (NCAA-31.6); Jesse Puljujarvi (AHL-31.2) and Tyler Benson (WHL-30.3) all showed enough offense to be projected as possible NHL options at maturation. Jujhar Khaira (AHL-28.5) was just outside the range. One notable item from a year ago: Three of the 30+ NHLE’s were teenagers.
  • There are two teenagers over 30 NHLE, Kailer Yamamoto and the surprising Kirill Maksimov. Tyler Benson is close.
  • Ryan McLeod has a good number, it suggests he could be a complementary scorer or a productive third liner. Both have value. The highest NHLE I’ve seen? Connor McDavid, 23-40-63 in the year before he was drafted.
  • Cooper Marody is an interesting player. Although his NHLE is shy of Joe Gambardella’s a year ago (and Drake Caggiula’s 44NHLE), he’s younger and his trajectory may be higher. You could say the same thing about Cameron Hebig.

NHLE DEFENSE

  • If these numbers are true, Evan Bouchard is a game changer. I went back in time looking for an offensive player (drafted) in the upper echelon and couldn’t find a prospect who delivered that kind of wallop at 17 not named Paul Coffey (102 points in 75 games). Danny Syvret scored well but he was drafted at 20.
  • Joey Laleggia and Brad Hunt were over 30 points NHLE in 2015, Darnell Nurse (about to enter pro) was 23 NHLE at age 19. Can Dmitri Samorukov reach close to that level at 19?
  • Ethan Bear has a window of opportunity to push up the depth chart, chances are his competition is Matt Benning and that will play out during Bear’s entry deal.
  • Joel Persson.

LOW BUDGET FREE AGENT LIST

I’m using Matt Cane’s free-agent list and I have just $4 million to spend. I’m in search of a No. 2 right-wing, a No. 4 center and a No. 7 defenceman. I have in-house options (Kailer Yamamoto, Jujhar Khaira and Keegan Lowe) but we’re looking for external options that are value.

  • RC Derek Ryan. Cane’s number ($2,483,222 times 2) is more than half of the allotted budget, expensive but he solves a lot of issues. It would require running Yamamoto and Lowe in their roles, I could live with this option.
  • RC Riley Nash. Cane’s number ($2,277,827 times 3) includes an extra year, but I like Nash a little more than Ryan. I would consider this a stronger option.
  • L Matt Calvert. Cane’ number ($1,543,611 times 1) is another good option, but Khaira would need to move over to center and I like him better on the wing. We’ll table it for possible discussion later.
  • RC Derek Grant. Cane’s number ($1,011,602 times 1) would make Grant a very tempting bet but I think he goes for me. Grant is 28, can win faceoffs and scored 12 goals in a support role.
  • RC Austin Czarnik. Cane’s number ($715,773 times 1) is as an RFA, but I don’t know he’ll cost more as a free agent. He posted a strong AHL season and I think Czarnik would be a solid option for No. 4 center.

  • There are no right wingers in free agency so I chose Matt Calvert as the best option for procurement. It means moving Jujhar Khaira to center, and that may not work. I have Shawn Matthias and Austin Czarnik as depth options, Czarnik might also grab some of Pontus Aberg’s playing time (and Kailer Yamamoto would be in Bakersfield just a call away).
  • As of now, Cooper Marody has a great chance to play some games this season. If he performs well in camp, suspect we’ll see him.
  • I think a trade is coming, just don’t know who is going. Boston, Montreal, Carolina and the Rangers are teams who Edmonton might be able to do business with over the next 10 days.

MATT BENNING

These are the Puck IQ numbers from last season. Adam Larsson played most against the elites among RHD, followed by Kris Russell and then Matt Benning. Absent a trade, I wonder if Benning will take on some of the load for Russell as second pairing RHD. On the other side, Nurse played the most (as a percentage of individual playing time) against the elites, Oscar Klefbom and Andrej Sekera should drive that number down in the coming year.

ORIENTATION CAMP

The Oilers published the orientation camp roster and schedule for the week (here). It’s a good list, people will want to see Evan Bouchard and the new recruits. These camps are important, the 2015 camp put Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse together and that trio has emerged as (from what we know) the heart of the order.

WINGERS

There’s a bit of a buzz about Jason Chimera to the Oil, if that happens we could see a left-wing depth chart of RNH—Lucic—Rattie—Chimera. What does that mean? Drake Caggiula on right wing as a regular, we could see the Oilers start the season Rattie—Caggiula—Puljujarvi—Kassian. If nothing changes, pretty sure center will be McDavid—Draisatil—Strome—Khaira and the extra men likely to be added in the coming days.

QUICK THOUGHTS ON THE DRAFT

More to come in the next few days (I’ll have a draft article at The Athletic this afternoon or tomorrow looking at the Oilers shopping this weekend) but I wanted to give a couple of quick thoughts this morning. I’ve always believed NHL teams should trust their board, make their list and stick with it. It’s also important to know the pressure points of the draft, when there’s a big falloff in quality.

In 2017, Edmonton had just one selection in the top 75, but drafted Stuart Skinner, Ostap Safin, Kirill Maksimov and Phil Kemp before they were finished. That’s some nice depth to the draft.

This year? The Oilers were basically done at the end of the second round. I think that reflects the general lack of quality after pick No. 75 or so, and the Oilers got three solid choices in Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and Olivier Rodrigue. That’s a good haul, these prospects were highly rated and now we’ll see.

There are differences between this scouting team (Keith Gretzky has some role, Bob Green scouting director) and the past. There’s even a change from 2016 to the last two years in my opinion, and the drafting is miles from 2014’s curio.

Since he arrived in 2015, Peter Chiarelli’s Oilers have drafted 27 times. Four goaltenders (one per year), 12 defensemen (three per year!), five centers and six wingers. Of the 27 players chosen, 21 are “up the middle” and 11 are forwards. The club is building defensive and goalie depth, little doubt there.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, all starts at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. An eventful weekend leading into a major week ahead.
  • Darren Dreger, TSN. John Tavares, the Flames trade, what’s ahead for Edmonton?
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers draft weekend, what does this week hold?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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236 Responses to "(You and me) Sittin’ in the back of my memory"

Newer Comments »
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    That is a wonderful number for Maksimov given his age.

    Man that kid can shoot the puck – I’m really pulling for him to make it as this organization hasn’t had a shooter like that at the NHL level since Jason Arnott (I don’t think).

    If he does develop in to an NHL player, that shot will score some goals.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Cooper Marody trade (as an extension of the Maroon deadline deal) has great arrows right now.

    He’s put up suburb numbers in college and is more than a pure offensive guy – he’s an all-situations type player. Sure, he’s a more mature player in college but not 22-23. He followed it up with a nice 3 game stretch in the AHL being the best player on the ice in 2 of the 3 games and producing 3 points.

    I am going to stop short of projecting him on the NHL roster, however, there is a chance he makes it.

    I’ve been vocal against Brad Malone, even at his very low cap hit. I’d like to find some cover for the bottom 6 to allow a guy like Marody to wet his feet at the pro level in the AHL – even a Brodziack and/or a Chimera.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m really excited to see:

    1) Berglund get even more minutes in his (hopefully) last year in Sweden – that guy has some skill and had a great season last year

    2) Lagesson re-engage in the North American game in the AHL and become a real factor heading in to the 2019/20 season – a great defender who can also skate and move the puck

    3) Samorukov take another step with McFadden graduated to pro hockey – more minutes and more PP minutes.

    4) Joel Persson hopefully provide that his “out of nowhere” offence was not just a quick flash – hopefully next year he’s earned a second contract and is crossing the Atlantic.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t imagine that Keegan Lowe was re-signed with a view of being an opening night Oilers.

    I was fine with the re-signing but presumed it was the same role as last year – veteran mentor in the AHL – potential call-up if injuries really start to pile up.

  5. RexLibris says:

    My biggest concern regarding the draft isn’t that the Oilers chose wrong in Bouchard vs Dobson/Wahlstrom or the selection of Rodrigue because of his connections to the organization.

    They passed on Bode Wilde, a big, right-handed defenseman in favour of a forward who most likely comes out as a winger. Speed, size and skill are all admirable and desirable traits in your prospects, but I think we’ve also seen that wingers, especially depth ones (and that is most likely the trajectory we’ll see McLeod on) are more easily acquired than offensive RD with the same skill sets mentioned above.

    I think Mcleod over Wilde was a mistake and one we’ll come to notably regret.

  6. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Another great draft and hope springs eternal. Still, that NHL depth chart looks ugly. PC cutting the Russell-Lucic anchors would surely be a public admission of error, something I think he’s unlikely to do. Man, that $10mil in cap space would be useful. Isn’t that Tavares’ magic number?

    Not sayin’, just sayin’. 🤔

  7. Professor Q says:

    RexLibris,

    I think at that point, the skilled forward in the 2nd round trumps the RHD any time, especially when the RHD prospect pool for Edmonton actually has a lot of good members and got a boost the day before, while the forward group needed its own boost.

    I really liked the Rodrigue pick as well, but of course one wonders “what if” if they’d stayed put and took Lauko.

  8. Professor Q says:

    Admiral Ackbar,

    Not when he’s getting offers of $11 million per. Sure, the McDavid effect would be nice if it actually worked. But think about what would happen to signing rookies longer term after.

    Our F and D pool would deteriorate quickly.

  9. Woogie63 says:

    Really glad we did not come away from the weekend with Hughes, Boqvist , Smith or Merkley. I am not sure how effective they are going to be defending in the NHL.

    A line of Lucic-Draisaitl and Puljajarvi is going to really test those undersized young men.

  10. DBO says:

    Friedmans 31 thoughts. Reider form LA will not be qualified. fall out from Kovalchuk. Awesome. He is a perfect for for our 2/3 RW. Please try and sign him Chia. Right the mistake from the MacT days.

  11. Yeti says:

    RexLibris,

    Your warning does not bode well for the Oilers.

  12. Admiral Ackbar says:

    RexLibris,

    The argument of Wahlstrom can be made. I’ll hear it. But Dobson > Bouchard? I think that conversation is close enough that a clear claim of it being the ‘wrong’ choice is a bit strong. I’d like to know your rationale.

  13. npanciroli says:

    Admiral Ackbar,

    McLeod was also likely BPA based on ranking. Sometimes you just pick wrong – at least this version of Oilers aren’t reaching as much.

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I alluded to this in the last post: Barring a change in philosophy I think its’ highly likely that Bouchard is on the team for game 1.

    – They need a RHD who can move the puck: Hi Bouchard

    – Just like last year they needed a RW to play with skill: hi Kailer

    – They won’t find a RHD puck mover better than Bouchard (baring a trade)

    Oil forever haven’t let prospects marinate: I hope its different. This would be the Oil, based on past behaviour, IMO

    RNH-McD-Rattie
    Lucic-Drai-Pool
    Cags-Strome-Kailer
    Aberg-Jar-Kassian

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sek-Bouchard
    Russel

    – We will see but this is the temptation the team has: play with the shiny toys

    – By the way: our cup teams look kinds like this IMO, if/when these under-20s emerge: just you are going to have a tough one this year with this roster above.

    – What’s realistic: 1st round playoffs? Better/same as 2 years ago?

    – Question is: what can they do with a Jagr/Franson end of the sale bin that is really different?

  15. anjinsan says:

    Chiarelli just had to behave himself at the draft.
    And soundness prevailed.
    Soundness: maybe that’s the plan. Don’t bull the china shop, damnit!
    It’s a crying shame that it took all the cost that was incurred to get Chiarelli to control himself.

  16. stephen sheps says:

    RexLibris: They passed on Bode Wilde, a big, right-handed defenseman in favour of a forward who most likely comes out as a winger. Speed, size and skill are all admirable and desirable traits in your prospects, but I think we’ve also seen that wingers, especially depth ones (and that is most likely the trajectory we’ll see McLeod on) are more easily acquired than offensive RD with the same skill sets mentioned above.

    In some ways I don’t disagree, as Wilde clearly has all the talent. However when looking at the actual prospect depth chart, a versatile C/W with speed and skill, even as a B/B+ prospect is something the organization is lacking right now. It really comes down to BPA vs. need in situations like this. In round 1, BPA every time, especially in the top 10 (and I think the Oilers did exactly that). In round 2? That’s where things get a bit more muddied. Sometimes drafting for need is the smart choice.

  17. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    RexLibris:

    I think Mcleod over Wilde was a mistake and one we’ll come to notably regret.

    – I think you might be right. I think they got it right with Bouchard vs Walstrom, and in round 2 it was the same choice: a talented forward vs a RHD

    – I’d rather Bouchard McLeod than Walhstrom Wilde though

    – Or would you rather Bouchard + Wilde?

    I don’t know what makes the most sense but I get why they went RHD then F

    – McLeod was a consensus 1st round pick though

    – I thought NYI did an awesome job with their 4 picks in the top 45 or whatever: skill and D

  18. --hudson-- says:

    Eric Tulsky appears to have been promoted to VP of Hockey Management and Strategy with the Hurricanes. Hats off to him.
    https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/team/staff

  19. OilSafety says:

    Some nuggets in Freidmans 31 thoughts.

    Reider…. as previously mentioned

    Zucker….. intriguing, gotta think he gets at least 3×4.5m somewhere

    Nash…. retirement or a very good chance at the cup as only options

    Obviously for anything significant to happen we need to move out salary…. for me that’s Lucic, Russell, Kassian, Sekera in that order. Nothing against any of them… just their cost.

    Always fun waiting for the dominoes to fall…. Kovilchuk done… John Karrlson done…. now waiting for Tavares, then Stasney and Karlson…..

    Doing my best to spell everyone’s name wrong here…

    I honestly hope Chai finds a way to move salary without mortgaging the future and without losing any of Nurse, Klef, Nuge, Pool party.

  20. godot10 says:

    DBO:
    Friedmans 31 thoughts. Reider form LA will not be qualified. fall out from Kovalchuk. Awesome. He is a perfect for for our 2/3 RW. Please try and sign him Chia. Right the mistake from the MacT days.

    Rieder is the guy. That should be the target. Especially now that he is a UFA.

  21. Jethro Tull says:

    DBO:
    Friedmans 31 thoughts. Reider form LA will not be qualified. fall out from Kovalchuk. Awesome. He is a perfect for for our 2/3 RW. Please try and sign him Chia. Right the mistake from the MacT days.

    Reider should be 3/4 RW. He’s not as good as some think and his connection to Edmonton skews the view somewhat.

    Plus, if he’s 2/3 RW, he eating either Yams or JP’s lunch……

  22. godot10 says:

    Jethro Tull: Reider should be 3/4 RW.He’s not as good as some think and his connection to Edmonton skews the view somewhat.

    Plus, if he’s 2/3 RW, he eating either Yams or JP’s lunch……

    Rieder was a 15 goal 2-way middle six winger on awful Phoenix teams with little up the middle. He is an ideal stop gap for the top six winger while the OIlers wait for Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and Khaira.

    He is better than Rattie. His defensive skills will compensate for McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s shortcomings defensively. And he can PK.

  23. npanciroli says:

    The only way I could see us getting Rieder is if he wants to play with Drai. Would be awesome but he probably ends up somewhere nicer.

  24. cowboy bill says:

    Oilers have a log jam of RHD now . The leftorium is no longer . Taking another RHD at 40 makes no sense . They made the right choice in Bouchard & Mcleod .

    How about those Islanders getting Wahlstrom & Dobson . That’s amazing . Not to mention Lameriollo & Trotz .

  25. Primetime says:

    godot10: Rieder was a 15 goal 2-way middle six winger on awful Phoenix teams with little up the middle.He is an ideal stop gap for the top six winger while the OIlers wait for Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and Khaira.

    He is better than Rattie.His defensive skills will compensate for McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s shortcomings defensively.And he can PK.

    Agree, but I think he will be an example of the new NHL. Stars get paid, the others need to take a haircut.

    Tobias made around $2.5 mill on his last contract…if he is looking for a raise, he will have to wait a while in free agency. More than likely he gets several low ball offers. Guys like him are going to have to take cheaper contracts to get on the roster. Theoretically, these guys should line up to play with one of the Oiler centers on short term contracts to get value up.

    Exception is if Chayka knows his value and pays to have him back (plus the asset they got at the trade deadline from LA)

  26. McSorley33 says:

    RexLibris,

    My biggest concern regarding the draft isn’t that the Oilers chose wrong in Bouchard vs Dobson/Wahlstrom or the selection of Rodrigue because of his connections to the organization.

    They passed on Bode Wilde, a big, right-handed defenseman in favour of a forward who most likely comes out as a winger. Speed, size and skill are all admirable and desirable traits in your prospects, but I think we’ve also seen that wingers, especially depth ones (and that is most likely the trajectory we’ll see McLeod on) are more easily acquired than offensive RD with the same skill sets mentioned above.

    I think Mcleod over Wilde was a mistake and one we’ll come to notably regret.
    *******************************************************************************************************
    Interesting….

    For me, I am going to track Wahlstrom and Addison.

    I really like our draft this year….so I am not going to complain.

    But, I was personally intrigued by Wahlstrom and Addison

    Time will tell…

  27. Primetime says:

    npanciroli:
    The only way I could see us getting Rieder is if he wants to play with Drai. Would be awesome but he probably ends up somewhere nicer.

    Did anyone catch that story on the draft coverage about Dominik Bokk?

    Apparently playing in Germany, but said he would come over to the CHL if he could play specifically for Windsor (not sure why). Prince Albert was ahead of Windsor in the import draft and took him on the hope that Leon could convince him what a great place it was to play. Apparently he was unconvincing as he declined and went to Sweden instead…

    Perhaps Leon is not much of a salesman with his countrymen?

  28. Ari says:

    –hudson–,

    That’s impressive. Carolina is going to destroy the Oilers in a trade soon, aren’t they?

  29. russ99 says:

    What justification is there that Benning can handle 2RD, other than shot-for based numbers?

    He couldn’t handle it last year, so what’s the assumption he can next season other than wishful thinking and the Corsi/PDO theorum that only offense matters and the goalie will bail us out at the back?

    I’m not amused he’s back, but he does have some use at his lower salary. On most NHL teams he’d be the 7th D that may earn a higher role if his performance justifies it.

  30. vinotintazo says:

    godot10,

    Meh, Rieder reached 15 G once (had 16), has been a minus player forever. He’s not more than a 3rd liner basically Korpikoski on his prime (no thanks).

    all he’s got is speed.

  31. npanciroli says:

    russ99,

    I don’t think any of our D are really ideal as a 2RD.

    Sekera LD
    Russell LD
    Benning Third pairing RD

    Pick your poison.

  32. Jaxon says:

    Here are some of the best draft year NHLe numbers I found a couple years ago. Note that I was researching RHD at the time so most of this list is RHD with a few exceptions.

    RYAN ELLIS 41
    ANTONY DEANGELO 37
    RYAN MURPHY 33
    JACK JOHNSON 31
    ERIK JOHNSON 30
    ZACH BOGOSIAN 27
    CAM FOWLER 26
    RASMUS ANDERSSON 25
    CODY CECI 25
    AARON EKBLAD 24
    ALEX PIETRANGELO 23
    DOUGIE HAMILTON 23
    DREW DOUGHTY 23
    P.K. SUBBAN 22
    KEVIN SHATTENKIRK 21
    SETH JONES 20
    ADAM CLENDENING 20
    JOHN-MICHAEL LILES 18
    MATT DUMBA 18
    JACOB TROUBA 18

  33. OilSafety says:

    Thinking it would be nice if we could somehow do a swap involving Sekera and Hamilton with Carolina. It might help them with Faulk, as he has a history playing well along side Sekera.

    I think they want to move a RHD now, but have realized the hard truth that Faulk doesnt have much value.

    Obviously Edmonton would have to add, and maybe theres a way to make the trade bigger. Add Lucic and the 2019 first rounder…. 3 for 1?

    I would imagine Calgary wasnt open to dialogue with Edmonton regarding Hamilton.

    Klef – Larsson
    Nurse – Hamilton
    Russel – Benning

    Oh wait…. Hamilton wants top pairing right…. okay

    Nurse-Hamilton
    Klef – Larsson
    Russel – Benning
    Bouchard/Lowe/Bear

    Gives more time for Bouchard too. lets not rush him unnecessarily. Do whats best for the player based on his play and needs as things progress. Don’t count on him to contribute right away. If he does, bonus, but lets have a plan A in place, and let that be plan B.

  34. Jaxon says:

    From Matt Cain’s list with $4M to spend I’d just sign Grabner at $3,825,873. Imagine someone who can shoot and skate as fast as McDavid. McDavid flying down the ice and instead of beating the goalie and D by himself, he now makes them have to consider whether he’s going to pass it to Grabner or not. Grabner might literally be the only winger in the NHL who can keep up to McDavid and he can score, and he’s not that expensive.

  35. Primetime says:

    OilSafety,

    I still think the more likely play is Sekera for Faulk. Shorter contract that runs out when Bouchard is ready for primetime…more likely Hurricanes want to get rid of Faulk than Hamilton

  36. Jaxon says:

    I wish they’d invite Tristen Nielsen and Pavel Gogolev to camp. In fact, I wish they’d sign them to cheap ELC’s with no bonuses.

  37. OilSafety says:

    Primetime,

    I could live with that, and I would cheer like hell for Sekera when he made his return to Edmonton.

    In my opinion hes been one of the best free agent signings in recent memory.

  38. Marc says:

    RexLibris:
    My biggest concern regarding the draft isn’t that the Oilers chose wrong in Bouchard vs Dobson/Wahlstrom or the selection of Rodrigue because of his connections to the organization.

    They passed on Bode Wilde, a big, right-handed defenseman in favour of a forward who most likely comes out as a winger. Speed, size and skill are all admirable and desirable traits in your prospects, but I think we’ve also seen that wingers, especially depth ones (and that is most likely the trajectory we’ll see McLeod on) are more easily acquired than offensive RD with the same skill sets mentioned above.

    I think Mcleod over Wilde was a mistake and one we’ll come to notably regret.

    That’s only true if he makes it to the NHL, and there’s some doubt that he will. I believe Pronman said something along the lines that he believes in Wilde’s talent, but it’s hard because in a third of his games he looks like a star, a third he’s completely anonymous and a third he’s an absolute disaster.

    This Canucks Army scouting report from December suggests an ongoing issue:https://canucksarmy.com/2017/12/16/2018-nhl-draft-some-early-overrated-and-underrated-players/

    The problem with Wilde is that he was identified as a potential top five pick when he was 16, and that assessment has to some extent carried him in the draft rankings even though his actual play was pretty uneven.

    In that respect he reminds me of David Musil. At the end of his draft -1 season people were talking about him as being a potential top five pick – I remember a HFBoards thread where people were discussing whether Musil, RNH, Larsson or Couturier should go first overall. He had a disappointing draft year, with some injuries and less offence than was expected of him. He spent the season drifting down draft lists, ending up in the top 30 of some lists and slipping into the second round of others.

    The Oilers take him, thinking they’ve gotten a steal. Meanwhile a bunch of forwards that were consensus first rounders – Saad, Rattie, Jurco, Grimaldi and Khokhlachev – all fall into the second round, and all end up playing more NHL games than Musil.

  39. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Think there’s a slight worry based on organizational past about rushing prospects to the show. However, when you look at recent D prospects, it becomes something of a false narrative, IMO.

    Petry. Klefbom. Nurse. Two blue chip defensemen and one strong prospect recently drafted and properly developed by the team. Allowed to marinate until they make a legit push for deployment.

    I hope that trend continues, unlike the Oilers’ record with development of forward prospects, on the other hand.

  40. Alpine says:

    Carolina isn’t gonna flip Hamilton.

  41. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Jaxon,

    Rumour has it Grabner wants to stay around the NYC area. I’d inquire though, no doubt about it.

  42. OilSafety says:

    Alpine,

    awwwe, why you gotta be like that.

    Its Monday morning and I dont wanna work. Let a guy dream for Pete’s sake! …..See what I did there 🙂

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    It’s too bad Chia gets so focused on his man that he spends extra to get him. This is apparent even at the draft, where he’s spent 5th round picks two years in a row just to move up a few spots to pick a player he likely could have got anyway had he sat tight. This type of thing (having only 4-5 picks per draft) will lead to bare cupboards, something that is a problem here already.

    Also the Montoya trade hurt us this year too… just looking at the list of players still available at the start of round for and some names stand out:

    Jonathan Gruden http://lastwordonhockey.com/2018/06/11/jon-gruden-scouting-report/

    Allan McShane http://lastwordonhockey.com/2018/05/10/allan-mcshane-scouting-report-2018-nhl-draft/
    https://thehockeywriters.com/allan-mcshane-2018-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

    Adam Mascherin https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/draft-profile-adam-mascherin/

    Aiden Dudas https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/nhl-entry-draft-picks-2018/2018/5/28/17400438/aidan-dudas-2018-nhl-draft-prospect-profile-stats-highlights-video-analysis-scouting-report

    Cole Fonstad https://thehockeywriters.com/cole-fonstad-2018-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

    Probably lots more that I missed, but these names just jumped out at me. The Oilers depth chart would look a LOT better if they simply made thier picks rather than getting 1-for-2 in every draft.

  44. slopitch says:

    Moving Sekera for a scoring winger wouldnt be the worst. We’d likely get some cap space unless Skinner is the target. Id rather go cheaper and more of a 2 way type. Oilers scoring depth at the NHL level needs a lot of help.

    Keeping Sekera and playing him RD when needbe (hel played wll there with Chara at the WHC) is an option as well. No need to force a trade. We’ve tried in previous years. But the fit is there with Carolina. Its almost impossible to find value in the UFA market. Maybe our lack of cap space is a good thing 😉

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q:
    RexLibris,

    I think at that point, the skilled forward in the 2nd round trumps the RHD any time, especially when the RHD prospect pool for Edmonton actually has a lot of good members and got a boost the day before, while the forward group needed its own boost.

    I really liked the Rodrigue pick as well, but of course one wonders “what if” if they’d stayed put and took Lauko.

    That trade-up-to-pick doesn’t make any sense to me. They held a pick just 9 later, with Rodrigue, Dostal and Skarek still on the board. Actually, the top six goalies per Central (top-3 NA + top-3 EU) were all still available.

  46. Mariusz Czerkawski says:

    I haven’t been able to read through the comments section here recently, so apologies if this is already out there. With woodguy mentioning Carolina being a trade match for Edmonton, with their 4RHD to 2 LHD split and Edmonton having the opposites (*disclaimer: this assumes we can trust woodguy’s phone lol), I wonder about a sekera for Faulk swap.

    Now I believe sekera is the better defender when healthy, but I have other reason:
    – his trade would likely mean klefbom is safe
    – it would properly slot russell as 3LD
    – it saves Carolina actual dollars with back diving contract of sekera and back loaded contract of Faulk
    – it provides Carolina a veteran option whose played there before. Something I heard was what they were looking for
    – it saves Edmonton a bit on salary and ends a year sooner
    – it’ll help shelter benning in the NHL and therefore Bear. Allowing him to work on his d coverage in the AHL
    – it also hopefully would let the oilers return Bouchard to juniors for at least a year.

    Would either team do this?

  47. DBO says:

    Reider is ideally a two way 3rd liner, ala Pisani!!!! LT, swoon away. Not sure on the analytics, but he has played for crap teams and been solid. If he is our 3rd line RW, who can PK and play up the lineup if needed, then that is a great signing.

    In two years our lineup could and should be:

    Nuge-McDavid-Yamamoto
    Benson-Draisatl-Puljujarvi
    McLeod-Strome-Reider
    Cagguila-Khaira-Marody

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Sekera-Bear
    Benning

  48. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Think there’s a slight worry based on organizational past about rushing prospects to the show. However, when you look at recent D prospects, it becomes something of a false narrative, IMO.

    Petry. Klefbom. Nurse. Two blue chip defensemen and one strong prospect recently drafted and properly developed by the team. Allowed to marinate until they make a legit push for deployment.

    I hope that trend continues, unlike the Oilers’ record with development of forward prospects, on the other hand.

    – I hope your right re: development of D vs F

    – Certainly for the first time I recall we have a D pipeline of legit “prospects”, vs warm bodies

    – I don’t believe our prospect pipe has ever been stronger (and probably still not league average)

  49. Jaxon says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jaxon,

    Rumour has it Grabner wants to stay around the NYC area. I’d inquire though, no doubt about it.

    That totally makes sense given that 7 of his last 8 seasons were with NYI, NYR and NJD with the exception being Toronto in 2015-16. But, as you mentioned, it would be worth checking out. Maybe Grabner sees playing with McDavid as a ticket to even more money. Could he srupass 30 or even 35 playing on McDavid’s wing? Maybe. He scored at a 29 and a 35 goal pace the past two years with the NYR playing with way lesser talent than Mcdavid and I believe lesser talent than Draisaitl, too. He also speaks German so maybe playing with Draisaitl has some appeal as well.

  50. vinotintazo says:

    Mariusz Czerkawski,

    There was an article in Oilersnation looking into this.

    Basically everyone agrees Sekera > Faulk at 5v5 and I believe he will come back healthy.

    in Summary some intel from Carolina said that Faulk was outta shape, and liked to party a lot. His on ice results were mediocre.

    I would stay away.

    Our D corps were fine on 2016, I think last year was just everyone except Nurse was banged up.

    a top 4 of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Sekera should be OK.

    Russell a 4/5 and Benning as # 6.

  51. Oilin4 says:

    Professor Q:
    RexLibris,

    I think at that point, the skilled forward in the 2nd round trumps the RHD any time, especially when the RHD prospect pool for Edmonton actually has a lot of good members and got a boost the day before, while the forward group needed its own boost.

    I really liked the Rodrigue pick as well, but of course one wonders “what if” if they’d stayed put and took Lauko.

    Reasonable point, though I don’t think it’s *every* time: “I think at that point, the skilled forward in the 2nd round trumps the RHD any time.”

    This is nonsense: “…especially when the RHD prospect pool for Edmonton actually has a lot of good members and got a boost the day before, while the forward group needed its own boost.”

    Draft the best player available, only and always. These are 17 year olds who will contribute 5 years from now. You can’t predict what the depth chart will look like then. Best Player. Always.

  52. Oilin4 says:

    While I like Rodrique and Skinner, we’ve spent 4 picks the last two years on two goalies (five if you count Montoya). Our prospect system is not deep enough to handle this. This is going to hurt three years from now, in the way all the 2015 trades are hurting now.

  53. Oilin4 says:

    DBO:
    Reider is ideally a two way 3rd liner, ala Pisani!!!! LT, swoon away. Not sure on the analytics, but he has played for crap teams and been solid. If he is our 3rd line RW, who can PK and play up the lineup if needed, then that is a great signing.

    In two years our lineup could and should be:

    Nuge-McDavid-Yamamoto
    Benson-Draisatl-Puljujarvi
    McLeod-Strome-Reider
    Cagguila-Khaira-Marody

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Sekera-Bear
    Benning

    These are very aggressive timelines for the prospects. Bouchard handling top 4 minutes at 20/21 years old is best case scenario. As is expecting McLeod to be full time NHL ready by then. It could happen, but it isn’t a reasonable expectation.

  54. Alpine says:

    I’ve read Duclair might not be qualified. He has a reputation of having a low work ethic. But he had a nice rookie season at 20 yrs old (had some PDO, SH% heat going his way), last season he scored at a top six rate at EV. Holds his own possession wise.

  55. Yeti says:

    cowboy bill: Oilers have a log jam of RHD now . The leftorium is no longer . Taking another RHD at 40 makes no sense . They made the right choice in Bouchard & Mcleod .

    Oh crap. We haven’t moved from the Leftorium to the AltRight have we?

  56. Pink Socks says:

    The main question that will be a discussion point for the next couple of years is:

    Bouchard & McLeod vs. Wahlstrom & Wilde/Addison

    LTers were all excited about this draft and the multitude of ways it could play out. Never would we have imagined that there would be a choice of Bouchard, Dobson AND Wahlstrom at #10. IMO the big winner was NYI. They just had to take the 2 the Oil passed over.

    On face value, I probably make the same pick. Although involving the crystal ball and knowing that at 40 both Addison and Wilde are available, maybe I take Wahlstrom and Addison. Hindsight is always genius, but I’m thrilled with the two top picks.

  57. Pink Socks says:

    Also, we’ll see on Rodrigue as I’m less certain of the necessity of picking another goaler this season especially when Hawkey was acquired. I was hoping to see Gruden picked with that #71 3rd rounder and adding another prospect in the 5th. Even rolling the dice on Veini Vehvilainen in the 5th + Gruden in the 3rd would have been more optimal IMO.

  58. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pink Socks:
    Also, we’ll see on Rodrigue as I’m less certain of the necessity of picking another goaler this season especially when Hawkey was acquired.I was hoping to see Gruden picked with that #71 3rd rounder and adding another prospect in the 5th.Even rolling the dice on Veini Vehvilainen in the 5th + Gruden in the 3rd would have been more optimal IMO.

    – I think all these goailies is a tell about the development of goalies in the past with the OIL

    – Its possible that they felt there was too much complancency. Certainly you have a bunch of goalies now who all want to make it, and will get their stripes based on merit…

  59. npanciroli says:

    Since goalies are voodoo I have no issue really stocking up the prospect cupboard as they are the most important position. Smart drafting IMO and trading up for what seemed to be the highest ranked goalie in the draft (I think?) before other could grab him is a-ok for me.

    The Montoya trade taking away more bullets is the real issue.

  60. Pink Socks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think all these goailies is a tell about the development of goalies in the past with the OIL

    – Its possible that they felt there was too much complancency.Certainly you have a bunch of goalies now who all want to make it, and will get their stripes based on merit…

    Agree on that. The glut of goaltenders now is pretty impressive. Starrett, Skinner, Wells, and now Rodrigue and Hawkey. AHL and ECHL will have 2G per team this season. It will be very interesting to see how they all slot come October.

  61. Professor Q says:

    Oilin4: Reasonable point, though I don’t think it’s *every* time: “I think at that point, the skilled forward in the 2nd round trumps the RHD any time.”

    This is nonsense: “…especially when the RHD prospect pool for Edmonton actually has a lot of good members and got a boost the day before, while the forward group needed its own boost.”

    Draft the best player available, only and always. These are 17 year olds who will contribute 5 years from now. You can’t predict what the depth chart will look like then. Best Player. Always.

    Yes, true, not every time, and BPA is always a standby (and changes from team to team, I believe). I guess I meant with the caveat that the skilled C/W is a projected 1st Rounder and could help a bit more than a questionable RHD, in the situation of the team acquiring multiple RHD anyway.

    Still quite a few years to go, in either case!

    I was also hoping for Lauko so what do I know?

  62. Pink Socks says:

    npanciroli,

    Montoya was definitely not a bright decision. When spending 5 picks on 2 goaltenders in the past 12 months, those scouts had better get one right. Stocking up is a good call, and with any luck, one of the 5 guys acquired recently will turn into an NHL option some day.

  63. npanciroli says:

    Duclair and Rieder are the two cheaper wingers I want.

  64. €√¥£€^$ says:

    RexLibris,

    I disagree, I think by not picking Wilde a bullet was dodged. Jaxon, I believe, had really dug into the prospects and uncovered unfavourable things regarding Wilde, including possible off-ice issues as well as his on-ice issues. I think Phil Kemp has the potential to have a better career in hockey, but let’s circle back in 4-5 years.

    I am not sure how MacLeod will turn out, but I think he will be in the NHL in 3 yrs as at least a 4th line LW. He has some work to do, so we will see. But aside from his OHL offense, there is a good PK player there.

  65. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Maksimov has a wicked shot, no doubt, I was in Penticton when he unleashed a wrister for a goal that was very impressive. Hopefully he continues to progress this season, because he has an NHL-caliber shot.

  66. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    These Swedes are wild cards as far as D depth for this franchise, but if you are going to dip your toe in any kind of prospect pool, the Oilers have gone to the right place in the world. It will be very interesting to see how Persson plays this year with full-time training and a year of experience under his belt. What a great low risk-high reward move the club made with this player.

    I am really excited to Lagesson, he was very impressive in Penticton. He is a lot bigger than I thought he would be and IMO his is a very good skater. I wasn’t able to compare them side by side, but the impression that I got was that he is a better skater than Adam Larsson. If I was a betting man, I would bet that he either makes the team out of TC as the 8th dman or he will be the 1st call-up from the Bake this year.

    Berglund will be good next year and I am excited to see him in NA when he arrives. The D corps depth will be a real strength for this team in the coming years. What a turn around and it is great to see.

  67. OilClog says:

    Didn’t Tobias ask out and Tambi moved him?

  68. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers have a clear history of valuing ‘character ‘ that has continued under Bob and Pete.

    They clear partiers out and get worked doing it. I’m not sure if everyone read but Vanek and Grabner (maybe more) issued a letter of apology because they partied all night before a big Austria game where Vivieros was HC. I will be surprised if they show up as Oilers, not great leadership that time.

    Same for Duclair. I think they are still very protective of the young core, I’m can’t see taking on players with self control issues.

    Reider perhaps, and he is more a player which PC values.

    I’m expecting a trade July 1 as many are.

  69. Richard S.S. says:

    Size survives in the NHL and will for a long time. Speed is mandatory in the NHL, with exceptional speed being a highly sought-after asset. Paasing well is a vital necessity to a sucessful Team. Being extremely talented is also highly sought-after asset. Ryan McLeod, C, ticks all those boxes. He scored at a point+ a game rate this past Season, and might get better. He’s not great defensively but then scorer don’t have to be, just responsible defensively.

  70. JustWatt says:

    Yeti: Oh crap. We haven’t moved from the Leftorium to the AltRight have we?

    Winner!

  71. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OilClog,

    Reider wanted to get paid with a bonus structure similar to a first rounder, and was moved after being rebuked. I too wonder if that would be a potential sticky wicket in negotiations, but with a *largely different management structure, perhaps that would be a moot point.

  72. Lowetide says:

    Brandon Davidson would be a nice get. Tobias Rieder too.

  73. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Lowetide,

    Davy’s ability to play his off side and commitment to the team would be a big plus, as would Toby’s boots, shot and PK ability.

    That their likely price point fits in with our cap structure is a boon.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    Oilin4:
    While I like Rodrique and Skinner, we’ve spent 4 picks the last two years on two goalies (five if you count Montoya). Our prospect system is not deep enough to handle this. This is going to hurt three years from now, in the way all the 2015 trades are hurting now.

    Don’t forget Chiarelli has already spent a 2019 pick on a goalie, too.

  75. Revolved says:

    There are a lot of comparisons being done between Bouchard and some other very strong defenders. Unfortunately, the amount of ice time Bouchard got, and the incredible spike of this year have created some concern. Now, take these numbers for what they are, but prospect stats does estimate evenTOI and provides these numbers for Bouchard, Doughty and Ellis in their 17 and 18 year old seasons:

    Player Age eTOI/GP eG/60 eA1/60

    Bouchard 16.9 15.53 0.51 0.62
    Bouchard 17.9 19.25 0.47 0.93

    Doughty 16.8 14.07 0.25 0.64
    Doughty 17.8 14.33 0.29 0.29

    Ellis 16.7 14.77 0.32 0.71
    Ellis 17.7 14.84 0.57 1.63

    So, it seems that Ellis is the class of the group, but even after adjusting for Bouchard’s TOI, he still shows pretty well. I was actually surprised how good his 17 year old season looked.

    One thing I can’t easily break down is if these guys all got equal amounts of PP time. Does anyone know Bouchard’s point totals on the PP vs EV?

  76. fishman says:

    My apologies if this was noted some time ago but what was the consensus of how Sekera played at the World Championships? Did his play show significant improvement from that of the reg season after returning from surgery? Perhaps is still too soon to know ??

    Happy with the draft and feel we got that RD we really needed (although maybe not this season) Concerned we have spent so many picks chasing goalies last few years. Good teams don’t waste picks like the Oilers are guilty of over the past number of years. Picks are a limited resource!

  77. Ari says:

    Revolved,

    45 at even strength
    33 on PP

    As per a google result of a sportsnet article by Iain McIntyre.

  78. ArmchairGM says:

    npanciroli:
    Since goalies are voodoo I have no issue really stocking up the prospect cupboard as they are the most important position. Smart drafting IMO and trading up for what seemed to be the highest ranked goalie in the draft (I think?) before other could grab him is a-ok for me.

    The Montoya trade taking away more bullets is the real issue.

    Rodrigue was the highest ranked NA goalie, not the highest ranked. I don’t think it was a smart move – the Oilers held a pick just 9 away, with all 6 top-ranked goalies (as per Central) still on the board. the 2 top EU goalies weren’t picked until after 71 – Skarek at 72 and Dostal at 85. They could’ve had either guy (and maybe Rodrigue) AND held on to thier 5th round pick.

    Not smart.

  79. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon:
    From Matt Cain’s list with $4M to spend I’d just sign Grabner at $3,825,873. Imagine someone who can shoot and skate as fast as McDavid. McDavid flying down the ice and instead of beating the goalie and D by himself, he now makes them have to consider whether he’s going to pass it to Grabner or not. Grabner might literally be the only winger in the NHL who can keep up to McDavid and he can score, and he’s not that expensive.

    No thanks. His record is incredibly inconsistent. Would rather have Maroon at $4 mill and I don’t even want Maroon.

  80. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Question for the group: what was the reason / circumstance around Riley Nash not signing with us after we drafted him?

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Admiral Ackbar:
    Another great draft and hope springs eternal. Still, that NHL depth chart looks ugly. PC cutting the Russell-Lucic anchors would surely be a public admission of error, something I think he’s unlikely to do. Man, that $10mil in cap space would be useful. Isn’t that Tavares’ magic number?

    Not sayin’, just sayin’.

    If nothing else, Chiarelli has shown the ability to admit mistakes and move on from them.

    He left Reinhart exposed in the expansion draft, he moved on from the Monster, he moved on from Jokinen.

    Lucic is a “big signing” but the Reinhart deal hurts the organization as much as any other deal and he knows that and he still moved on from it.

  82. VOR says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Size survives in the NHL and will for a long time.Speed is mandatory in the NHL, with exceptional speed being a highly sought-after asset.Paasing well is a vital necessity to a sucessful Team.Being extremely talented is also highly sought-after asset.Ryan McLeod, C, ticks all those boxes.He scored at a point+ a game rate this past Season, and might get better.He’s not great defensively but then scorer don’t have to be, just responsible defensively.

    I think Ryan McLeod is a potential top six forward. He has a world of talent. He is truly gifted.

    The problem is he doesn’t fit the Oilers’ culture very well. He has consistency of effort issues. And for a big, very strong, extremely fast player he shies away from the hard areas of the ice. Oilers coaching, management, and the team’s fan base have a long history of torching players with these specific issues. The culture of the Oilers is big, strong, fast players engage physically and win puck battles and forget about the fancy stuff.

    Ryan McLeod (check out highlight videos) can fly, can shoot, has great offensive vision/IQ, can dangle and most of all has magic hands. It isn’t clear if he even knows how to throw a body check. And he sure doesn’t know how to fight, or use his body to gain time and space. He will acquire a bad case of side burns in training camp and that will be Sayonara.

    Does some one think it will be different this time? Anyone?

  83. npanciroli says:

    ArmchairGM,

    They might have liked him over the others or had an inkling he was going to be taken. We really don’t know if it is smart or not until we see which goalie makes it.

  84. godot10 says:

    OilClog:
    Didn’t Tobias ask out and Tambi moved him?

    Ancient history. 2 GM’s ago.

  85. Alpine says:

    VOR: I think Ryan McLeod is a potential top six forward. He has a world of talent. He is truly gifted.

    The problem is he doesn’t fit the Oilers’ culture very well. He has consistency of effort issues. And for a big, very strong, extremely fast player he shies away from the hard areas of the ice. Oilers coaching, management, and the team’s fan base have a long history of torching players with these specific issues. The culture of the Oilers is big, strong, fast players engage physically and win puck battles and forget about the fancy stuff.

    Ryan McLeod (check out highlight videos) can fly, can shoot, has great offensive vision/IQ, can dangle and most of all has magic hands. It isn’t clear if he even knows how to throw a body check. And he sure doesn’t know how to fight, or use his body to gain time and space. He will acquire a bad case of side burns in training camp and that will be Sayonara.

    Does some one think it will be different this time? Anyone?

    Oilers wouldn’t have selected him if they didn’t believe he could fit in somehow. In say, 18 months when McLeod could be a call up option from Bakersfield, there might even be a new management group with a new head coach who emphasize skill and speed over size and physicality.

  86. ArmchairGM says:

    npanciroli:
    ArmchairGM,

    They might have liked him over the others or had an inkling he was going to be taken. We really don’t know if it is smart or not until we see which goalie makes it.

    Yes, but if “goalies are voodoo” (your words), why spend 2 picks on one when the odds are that he (or someone just as good) will be available 9 picks later??

  87. Alpine says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Question for the group: what was the reason / circumstance around Riley Nash not signing with us after we drafted him?

    I believe the Oilers wanted him to leave college earlier and he wanted to spend another year at Cornell. That left a sour taste on both sides and soon Nash was reluctant to sign.

  88. Pretendergast says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Question for the group: what was the reason / circumstance around Riley Nash not signing with us after we drafted him?

    From my understanding the Oilers wanted him to turn pro from Cornell and he wanted to stay in school. Whether that meant a Vesey or the Oil rushing a kid who wanted an education is anyone’s guess but the die was cast when he wouldn’t sign early.

  89. Wilde says:

    On our 2nd round pick:

    I don’t think the miss was necessarily on Bode Wilde, who is a high risk project-type, but on Olofsson, Hallander, Gustafsson and Thomas.

    I believe the reasons that they went McLeod was this:

    – They leaned towards older prospects

    – He interviewed well and wants to be here

    – They believe he’s closer to pro

    I’d contend all of these except the interview obviously, because the Swedes all played in a men’s league despite age, and the gap between Akil Thomas’s scoring and McLeod’s is just too much for me.

    That said I’m happy with McLeod. Excellent skater, good fit, I see him as a complimentary LW on the line with whichever centre has Yamamoto.

    Would have loved to have gotten say Olofsson and dropped him in the AHL this year.(Sorry SwedishPoster)

    I’m also one of those who legitimately takes issue with the dual goalie pickup as well.

    I can live with leaving talented forwards on the table and expending another bullet for the goalie they really wanted.

    I can also live with expending a bullet for a goalie they really wanted.

    But both is tough, man. 62 was dead ahead of Jack McBain, Cam Hillis and Jake Wise, and 71 the same for Nik Nordgren and SDA.

    I’m tremendously pleased that the Oilers got both of their guys, though, and I hope that diminishes the appetite for a trade outside of bad money for bad money Russell or Lucic deals.

    Bouchard is a ridiculously easy prospect for me. Every other guy who sniffs his numbers(outside attitude issues/pure offensive dman guys), if they just get one more year in junior they start shelling out major contributions to their major league clubs the next year and on and on and on.

    On Derek Grant: Buyer beware.

    His totals look pretty good if he was a depth guy, but he actually played on some top-end units in Anaheim before they made the Henrique trade and their thoroughly disgusting pair of Ryans returned.

    He’s got major TOI shares with the Lindholm pairing and some of their top-end wingers(Silfverberg, Cogliano, Rakell etc) and I think Edmonton’s offering him pretty much the opposite oppurtunity.

    I’d trade Kassian for anything and Russell for an overpaid forward in the neighbourhood, then try to get Rieder and Czarnik.

  90. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    We have a culture? For years we liked skill but not the size or physicality and got punished for it and now we moved towards size and physicality and the league moved away from that. I dont think there is an Oiler type player out there yet

    This guy is a complete boom bust type prospect and what you want out of the second round

  91. Bank Shot says:

    Alpine: I believe the Oilers wanted him to leave college earlier and he wanted to spend another year at Cornell. That left a sour taste on both sides and soon Nash was reluctant to sign.

    I don’t believe that is true because Nash signed a pro contract immediately after the Oilers traded him.

    He wanted out. That much is clear. The Oilers kept the reason to themselves.

  92. VOR says:

    Alpine: Oilers wouldn’t have selected him if they didn’t believe he could fit in somehow. In say, 18 months when McLeod could be a call up option from Bakersfield, there might even be a new management group with a new head coach who emphasize skill and speed over size and physicality.

    They think he can fit in exactly like all the other members of the sideburn brigade, by changing from a being a round peg to being a square peg. Lord help us the world would freeze and the sky would fall if the coaches showed some flexibility and modified a whole or two. Maybe the Head Coach, GM, and all the Old Boys Club especially the members of the Red Wine Club get fired. Until those happy days arrive the Oilers are better off to draft somebody whose on ice game and off ice personality fit – Sean Durzi, Martin Fehevary, Filip Hallander, Akil Thomas, and Adam Ginning all fit.

    If it is my team I pick Ryan McLeod. I can see him moving to the wing and becoming Alex Tanguay. I just am not sure an Alex Tanguay clone can flourish in the Oilers development system.

  93. Wilde says:

    Alpine:
    I’ve read Duclair might not be qualified. He has a reputation of having a low work ethic. But he had a nice rookie season at 20 yrs old (had some PDO, SH% heat going his way), last season he scored at a top six rate at EV. Holds his own possession wise.

    I’d absolutely be in on this. RW is weak on this team, LW is… something else.

  94. John Chambers says:

    Assuming a move to trade Lucic isn’t in the cards, adding Czarnik + Rieder for a combined $3M or less would make the offseason something of a success.

    If we start with:
    RNH – McDavid – Rattie
    Rieder – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
    Lucic – Strome – Czarnik
    Aberg – Khaira – Kassian

    With Yamamoto and possibly Marody able to join the club as the year progresses.

    They’re tight to the cap, but that lineup seems to offer a lot of versatility, + size and speed.

  95. LadiesloveSmid says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Question for the group: what was the reason / circumstance around Riley Nash not signing with us after we drafted him?

    I thought it had to do with EDM’s centre prospect depth at the time (somehow, in hindsight)

  96. rickithebear says:

    VOR:
    McLeod in top 20 picks No.
    But at 40.
    Hell yeah.

    This young man watching and participating with Nuge & Drai.
    I am giddy.

  97. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I would have time for Nick Shore at 4C, not qualified by CGY

  98. Wonder Llama says:

    …some intel from Carolina said that Faulk was outta shape, and liked to party a lot. His on ice results were mediocre.

    I would stay away.

    Our D corps were fine on 2016, I think last year was just everyone except Nurse was banged up.

    a top 4 of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Sekera should be OK.

    Russell a 4/5 and Benning as # 6.

    I read a llot these days about Faulk’s value dipping but I don’t follow the Canes enough to have seen the evidence. How solid is this “intel?” An out-of-shape party boy is still team captain?

    I tend to agree with Klef/Llarsson/Nurse/Sekera as a pretty decent top 4 provided someone, say Sekera, can play comfortable/effective RHD.

    But wouldn’t two years of Faulk provide a nice transition to the days of more mature Benning/Bear/Bouchard? After that just llet him walk as a UFA.

    If there were a deal to be made around Lucic for Faulk I’d be very much in favor, assuming salary retention and/or sweeteners were reasonable. I’m not sure if it’s been said point-blank out lloud here yet, but IMO Lucic is an actual negative on the Oilers (and undeserving of a second L). Too slow of foot and hand, and from my observation is a surprisingly bad passer, among the worst on the team.

  99. Yeti says:

    Wonder Llama,

    Hold on a moment here: Larsson deserves to become Llarsson the llama but Lucic is just plain old Lucic? What is he, merely vicuña status or something?

  100. VOR says:

    leadfarmer:
    VOR,

    We have a culture?For years we liked skill but not the size or physicality and got punished for it and now we moved towards size and physicality and the league moved away from that.I dont think there is an Oiler type player out there yet

    This guy is a complete boom bust type prospect and what you want out of the second round

    I don’t know. I think the window of the Oilers “talent above all” approach existed for the briefest of moments. Just long enough for you to say Ralph Krueger.

    But I don’t believe in litigating the past or trying to predict the future. I am saying based on what we know about the Oilers as of draft day 2018, Ryan McLeod wasn’t the right pick.

  101. Alpine says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t believe that is true because Nash signed a pro contract immediately after the Oilers traded him.

    He wanted out. That much is clear. The Oilers kept the reason to themselves.

    Well there was definitely some disconnect about where he should be playing. Prendergast made some comments during the 2008-09 season about Nash not playing enough games in Cornell and how he wasn’t impressive in camp. So I assume as early as summer 2009 they were pushing to get him to leave school so 09-10 could have been that extra season in college.

    Willis had the prendergast comments here, in an article dated May 2009. https://oilersnation.com/2009/05/15/kevin-prendergast-on-riley-nash-the-prevailing-wind-happens-to-be-from-cornell/comment-page-2/?sortby=cheers

  102. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: No thanks. His record is incredibly inconsistent.Would rather have Maroon at $4 mill and I don’t even want Maroon.

    I’m not so sure I’d call him “incredibly inconsistent”.

    In his 9 year career he has had:

    YR G/82 Pace TEAM
    2009-10 21 Vancouver Canucks
    2010-11 37 New York Islanders
    2011-12 21 New York Islanders
    2012-13 29 New York Islanders
    2013-14 15 New York Islanders
    2014-15 19 New York Islanders
    2015-16 9 Toronto Maple Leafs
    2016-17 29 New York Rangers
    2017-18 35 New York Rangers

    ONLY 1 SEASON UNDER 15 GOAL PACE
    ONLY 2 SEASONS UNDER 19 GOAL PACE
    7 SEASONS AT A 19 GOAL PACE OR MORE
    6 SEASONS AT A 21 GOAL PACE OR MORE
    4 SEASONS AT A 29 GOAL PACE OR MORE
    2 SEASONS AT A 35 GOAL PACE OR MORE

    I’m not sure you’d find many goal scorers in the NHL with a record that good.

    There is a bit of mass misperception when it comes to Grabner. I was surprised at his numbers, too, when I looked it up.

    Full disclosure: I didn’t include his NJD 20 game stint this spring as I doubt his ability decreased instantly when he switched teams. I’d guess NJ didn’t put him in a position to score but just traded for him for insurance.

    I think his two down seasons might have more to do with how the coach used him than with his ability.

  103. Wonder Llama says:

    Yeti:
    Wonder Llama,

    Hold on a moment here: Larsson deserves to become Llarsson the llama but Lucic is just plain old Lucic? What is he, merely vicuña status or something?

    Earn your ice time; earn your “L’s!”

  104. VOR says:

    rickithebear:
    VOR:
    McLeod in top 20 picks No.
    But at 40.
    Hell yeah.

    This young man watching and participating with Nuge & Drai.
    I am giddy.

    The Oilers just showed us how they feel about big, fast, talented young men. I can sum it up in two words. Anton Slepyshev.

    In order to develop and succeed in the NHL you have to play. As an organization the Oilers value effort over impact. Again, I can sum it up in two words. Drake Cagguila.

    McLeod has the tools to be a dominating game breaker. But he takes many shifts and entire games off. The Oilers just made it very clear how important looking like your working your ass off is to them. And how much they dislike guys who float.

  105. Lowetide says:

    Mark Divver

    @MarkDivver
    1m1 minute ago
    More
    “Overwhelming” interest in #NHLBruins UFA Austin Czarnik, according to agent Brian Bartlett. “Over two-thirds of the teams in the league have called”

  106. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    VOR: They think he can fit in exactly like all the other members of the sideburn brigade, by changing from a being a round peg to being a square peg. Lord help us the world would freeze and the sky would fall if the coaches showed some flexibility and modified a whole or two. Maybe the Head Coach, GM, and all the Old Boys Club especially the members of the Red Wine Club get fired. Until those happy days arrive the Oilers are better off to draft somebody whose on ice game and off ice personality fit – Sean Durzi, Martin Fehevary, Filip Hallander, Akil Thomas, and Adam Ginning all fit.

    If it is my team I pick Ryan McLeod. I can see him moving to the wing and becoming Alex Tanguay. I just am not sure an Alex Tanguay clone can flourish in the Oilers development system.

    Fully expect TMac to be Tmac and shit the bed from the get go again this year. Should have a new HC one month in. The development of Ryan McLeod, whom I very much liked as a RD2 pick, is the very least of our worries. Hope I am wrong … I am getting tired being right.

  107. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Gio-Brodie pairing’s numbers seem pretty putrid the last 2 seasons (CF & xGF). Probably be better off playing Gio-Hamonic, and even then you don’t want Hamonic as your #1RHD. Hope Hanifin doesn’t skyrocket, this could be a big down arrow for CGY next season. I imagine they big game hunt a top 6 winger with all of their cap room however. JVR? Trade for Kessel? ROR?

  108. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide:
    Mark Divver

    @MarkDivver1m1 minute ago
    More
    “Overwhelming” interest in #NHLBruins UFA Austin Czarnik, according to agent Brian Bartlett. “Over two-thirds of the teams in the league have called”

    “Moneypuck” has caught up with two thirds of the league.

  109. Wilde says:

    Lowetide:
    Mark Divver

    @MarkDivver1m1 minute ago
    More
    “Overwhelming” interest in #NHLBruins UFA Austin Czarnik, according to agent Brian Bartlett. “Over two-thirds of the teams in the league have called”

    Damn you, Alex Tuch.

  110. VOR says:

    John Chambers: “Moneypuck” has caught up with two thirds of the league.

    We will see really soon. Chicago’s not qualifying Anthony Duclair and Thomas Jurco gives us a great test case. Let’s say you want to get faster but you want to be big and fast then here are two cheap players. Jurco has been a great AHL player and finally seems ready to accept and fill a fourth line role. He is big and really fast, an explosive skater – on the right fourth line he could turn into Curtis Glencross.

    Duclair is even bigger and fills a third line role. And he can fly. Sure he is a head case but he is a cheap, talented and very fast head case.

    Both these guys will be cheap and having something to prove. Their underlying metrics suggest if some team is playing Moneyball they’d be prime targets.

    Some team could sign Reider, Jurco, and Duclair. That would be a good start on one of the fastest groups of forwards in hockey.

  111. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR,

    – the oil do like there Ryan jones Keith acton Brad hunt guys who look like they are trying hard good hustle boards sacrifices.

    – but kailer was drafted and they played him. So maybe there is hope

    – I do agree with you though and coach Todd fits that mound.

  112. Side says:

    VOR: They think he can fit in exactly like all the other members of the sideburn brigade, by changing from a being a round peg to being a square peg. Lord help us the world would freeze and the sky would fall if the coaches showed some flexibility and modified a whole or two. Maybe the Head Coach, GM, and all the Old Boys Club especially the members of the Red Wine Club get fired. Until those happy days arrive the Oilers are better off to draft somebody whose on ice game and off ice personality fit – Sean Durzi, Martin Fehevary, Filip Hallander, Akil Thomas, and Adam Ginning all fit.

    If it is my team I pick Ryan McLeod. I can see him moving to the wing and becoming Alex Tanguay. I just am not sure an Alex Tanguay clone can flourish in the Oilers development system.

    When Chiarelli arrived I believe he spoke about how he plans on building his team to compete with the West. With the success Vegas has had with the type of team they have, and based on some of the picks teams were making (smaller, speedier, skilled types), it seems like the league is shifting in the “speedier, skilled” direction. I don’t see a reason why Chiarelli wouldn’t adopt this way to compete with the West. I don’t see him as being the last GM in the west to adapt to this shift. Maybe the McLeod pick is a sign of this shift. Curious to see how the team will be coached this year, though.

  113. Wilde says:

    More unqualified players from other teams that would be upgrades on everyone on the bottom end of our lineup are Nick Shore and Daniel Carr.

  114. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    VOR: We will see really soon. Chicago’s not qualifying Anthony Duclair and Thomas Jurco gives us a great test case. Let’s say you want to get faster but you want to be big and fast then here are two cheap players. Jurco has been a great AHL player and finally seems ready to accept and fill a fourth line role. He is big and really fast, an explosive skater – on the right fourth line he could turn into Curtis Glencross.

    Duclair is even bigger and fills a third line role. And he can fly. Sure he is a head case but he is a cheap, talented and very fast head case.

    Both these guys will be cheap and having something to prove. Their underlying metrics suggest if some team is playing Moneyball they’d be prime targets.

    Some team could sign Reider, Jurco, and Duclair. That would be a good start on one of the fastest groups of forwards in hockey.

    Don’t know if Jurco would consider EDM. Would love to have him on the fourth line.

    Duclair would be a terrible fit here. Would be surprised if he sees himself as a third/fourth liner. He may be a head case but he’s not stupid. He’s not coming here to get Slepysheved

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    What justification is there that Benning can handle 2RD, other than shot-for based numbers?

    He couldn’t handle it last year, so what’s the assumption he can next season other than wishful thinking and the Corsi/PDO theorum that only offense matters and the goalie will bail us out at the back?

    I’m not amused he’s back, but he does have some use at his lower salary. On most NHL teams he’d be the 7th D that may earn a higher role if his performance justifies it.

    LT included goal based results too in post.

    Benning’s shot metrics, goal metrics etc show he’s ready for it, and that includes when you account for QoC.

    What other results do you need?

  116. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan,

    Duclair scored at the same rate as Lucic last season (per 82), without being stapled to 97 and 29. Might not be a bottom 6 LW in EDM.

  117. OilArt says:

    Primetime: Did anyone catch that story on the draft coverage about Dominik Bokk?

    Apparently playing in Germany, but said he would come over to the CHL if he could play specifically for Windsor (not sure why).Prince Albert was ahead of Windsor in the import draft and took him on the hope that Leon could convince him what a great place it was to play.Apparently he was unconvincing as he declined and went to Sweden instead…

    Perhaps Leon is not much of a salesman with his countrymen?

    After talking to a few people from PA I got the feeling that Leon didn’t like the town much. The hockey program is pretty good, however The city is a rough place. Tbh It wouldn’t surprise me if Leon advised him to not go there.

  118. pts2pndr says:

    Oilin4: Reasonable point, though I don’t think it’s *every* time: “I think at that point, the skilled forward in the 2nd round trumps the RHD any time.”

    This is nonsense: “…especially when the RHD prospect pool for Edmonton actually has a lot of good members and got a boost the day before, while the forward group needed its own boost.”

    Draft the best player available, only and always. These are 17 year olds who will contribute 5 years from now. You can’t predict what the depth chart will look like then. Best Player. Always.

    This thinking is not correct! This caused a trade of Hall for Larson. Looking at your team and taking into account future need is prudent and precludes same stupidity over and over! Actually not only should you be able to predict you contol your own destiny by moving players as you decide rather than moving greater value players out of need! The only time your thinking is valid is if the player available is predicted or believed to be of generational value. Overall value is greatly determined by team need! To think differently is irrational!

  119. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Rieder is the guy.That should be the target.Especially now that he is a UFA.

    Very solid player that checks all the boxes!

  120. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Decidedly Skeptical Fan,

    Duclair scored at the same rate as Lucic last season(per 82), without being stapled to 97 and 29. Might not be a bottom 6 LW in EDM.

    Yes, I agree he may have the talent to be a top 6LW, but not here. Just don’t see the opportunity. Nuge is 1LW as he should be. Drake/Looch look cemented into the 2/3LW slots, not sure the order, which will be a disaster once again.

  121. VOR says:

    Wilde:
    More unqualified players from other teams that would be upgrades on everyone on the bottom end of our lineup are Nick Shore and Daniel Carr.

    I like the idea very much. Carr and Shore can be Yin to Duclair and Jurco’s Yang. Not fast, not particularly big or talented but quick, wicked smart, and remarkably effective. Throw in Rieder and you have great forward depth.

    How you’d deploy that depth is anyone’s guess. But it certainly wouldn’t break the bank.

  122. McSorley33 says:

    Wilde,

    I can also live with expending a bullet for a goalie they really wanted.

    But both is tough, man. 62 was dead ahead of Jack McBain, Cam Hillis and Jake Wise, and 71 the same for Nik Nordgren and SDA.
    **************************************************************************************************
    I thought we had this talk last year…about the sheer volume of goalies in our system.

    How many goalies can you have matriculating at the same time…?

    Your list of players left on the table is spot on….and I would have taken Cam Hillis.

  123. pts2pndr says:

    VOR: I think Ryan McLeod is a potential top six forward. He has a world of talent. He is truly gifted.

    The problem is he doesn’t fit the Oilers’ culture very well. He has consistency of effort issues. And for a big, very strong, extremely fast player he shies away from the hard areas of the ice. Oilers coaching, management, and the team’s fan base have a long history of torching players with these specific issues. The culture of the Oilers is big, strong, fast players engage physically and win puck battles and forget about the fancy stuff.

    Ryan McLeod (check out highlight videos) can fly, can shoot, has great offensive vision/IQ, can dangle and most of all has magic hands. It isn’t clear if he even knows how to throw a body check. And he sure doesn’t know how to fight, or use his body to gain time and space. He will acquire a bad case of side burns in training camp and that will be Sayonara.

    Does some one think it will be different this time? Anyone?

    I agree but hope springs eternal!

  124. Richard S.S. says:

    The Coaching Staff Todd McLellan had in Edmonton his first three years is gone. What he has now is a close to an A-List as was possible. This A-List deals with player development at the NHL. Jay Woodcroft is the Olier’s 1st choice for AHL Bakersfield Head Coach. I think they are spending as much time acquiring an A-List for him. This supposed A-List will deal with player development at the AHL.

    Look at the Oilers Development Camp list of the players invited. Suggestions will be made to each of the players about what more they need to do. And if necessary, the Oilers will speak to every Team their players go to about what the players should be working on. I expect Ryan McLeod to sign an ELC before the 2019-20 Season.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: Oh crap. We haven’t moved from the Leftorium to the AltRight have we?

    Well done sir.

  126. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: LT included goal based results too in post.

    Benning’s shot metrics, goal metrics etc show he’s ready for it, and that includes when you account for QoC.

    What other results do you need?

    Me thinks they also forgot he was concussed for part of the year! I truly hope he stays healthy as I like what he brings to the team passing and physically wise! Hits like a truck and picks his spots!

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    For the record:

    Not a fan Rieder.

    Negative shot and goal metrics.

    3rd/4th line scoring levels.

    Pass, aim higher.

  128. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR: We will see really soon. Chicago’s not qualifying Anthony Duclair and Thomas Jurco gives us a great test case. Let’s say you want to get faster but you want to be big and fast then here are two cheap players. Jurco has been a great AHL player and finally seems ready to accept and fill a fourth line role. He is big and really fast, an explosive skater – on the right fourth line he could turn into Curtis Glencross.

    Duclair is even bigger and fills a third line role. And he can fly. Sure he is a head case but he is a cheap, talented and very fast head case.

    Both these guys will be cheap and having something to prove. Their underlying metrics suggest if some team is playing Moneyball they’d be prime targets.

    Some team could sign Reider, Jurco, and Duclair. That would be a good start on one of the fastest groups of forwards in hockey.

    It seems the org is still focused on finding players that won’t mind playing in Edmonton. McLeod fits that bill being a childhood fan.

    Duclair I can’t see loving the city especially when the MSM get afterburner, or meeting the ‘character’ check list regardless of skill, add to that a desire I think by the org to surround the core with ‘safe’ types.

    Winning a lot and a mature core puts a lot of this to bed IMO.

  129. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    Since goalies are voodoo I have no issue really stocking up the prospect cupboard as they are the most important position. Smart drafting IMO and trading up for what seemed to be the highest ranked goalie in the draft (I think?) before other could grab him is a-ok for me.

    The Montoya trade taking away more bullets is the real issue.

    Yessir.

    Agreed both parts.

  130. godot10 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Yes, I agree he may have the talent to be a top 6LW, but not here.Just don’t see the opportunity.Nuge is 1LW as he should be.Drake/Looch look cemented into the 2/3LW slots, not sure the order, which will be a disaster once again.

    Drake and Lucic probably should be cemented into the press box.

    And er….I know the OIlers aren’t going there so I will….Yakupov wasn’t qualified and is a UFA.

    #TeamTobiasRieder

    Quite the handle…a

    Decidedly
    Skeptical
    Fan

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record:

    Not a fan Rieder.

    Negative shot and goal metrics.

    3rd/4th line scoring levels.

    Pass, aim higher.

    Who are you liking?

  132. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record:

    Not a fan Rieder.

    Negative shot and goal metrics.

    3rd/4th line scoring levels.

    Pass, aim higher.

    He is better than Caggiula, and won’t cost much more.

  133. Truth says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record:

    Not a fan Rieder.

    Negative shot and goal metrics.

    3rd/4th line scoring levels.

    Pass, aim higher.

    I hope that they trade Strome + Lucic or Russell for a bag of pucks (I’d prefer just Lucic or Russell, but I would pay the price of Strome because I think his perceived value is greater than his actual value). It would provide them some space to sign Derek Ryan and sign or trade for a decent RD. I believe Ryan would directly replace Strome (NOT like Lucic replaced Hall), and then the Oilers could replace Lucic or Russell at a much lower cap hit.

  134. pts2pndr says:

    Jethro Tull: Reider should be 3/4 RW.He’s not as good as some think and his connection to Edmonton skews the view somewhat.

    Plus, if he’s 2/3 RW, he eating either Yams or JP’s lunch……

    Reider is a bonafide NHL player at this time. Yamamoto has potential but has not proven that he is ready for nhl time. It would not hurt his carreer to spend part of a season or more in the AHL.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    On our 2nd round pick:

    I don’t think the miss was necessarily on Bode Wilde, who is a high risk project-type, but on Olofsson, Hallander, Gustafsson and Thomas.

    I believe the reasons that they went McLeod was this:

    – They leaned towards older prospects

    – He interviewed well and wants to be here

    – They believe he’s closer to pro

    I’d contend all of these except the interview obviously, because the Swedes all played in a men’s league despite age, and the gap between Akil Thomas’s scoring and McLeod’s is just too much for me.

    That said I’m happy with McLeod. Excellent skater, good fit, I see him as a complimentary LW on the line with whichever centre has Yamamoto.

    Would have loved to have gotten say Olofsson and dropped him in the AHL this year.(Sorry SwedishPoster)

    I’m also one of those who legitimately takes issue with the dual goalie pickup as well.

    I can live with leaving talented forwards on the table and expending another bullet for the goalie they really wanted.

    I can also live with expending a bullet for a goalie they really wanted.

    But both is tough, man. 62 was dead ahead of Jack McBain, Cam Hillis and Jake Wise, and 71 the same for Nik Nordgren and SDA.

    I’m tremendously pleased that the Oilers got both of their guys, though, and I hope that diminishes the appetite for a trade outside of bad money for bad money Russell or Lucic deals.

    Bouchard is a ridiculously easy prospect for me. Every other guy who sniffs his numbers(outside attitude issues/pure offensive dman guys), if they just get one more year in junior they start shelling out major contributions to their major league clubs the next year and on and on and on.

    On Derek Grant: Buyer beware.

    His totals look pretty good if he was a depth guy, but he actually played on some top-end units in Anaheim before they made the Henrique trade and their thoroughly disgusting pair of Ryans returned.

    He’s got major TOI shares with the Lindholm pairing and some of their top-end wingers(Silfverberg, Cogliano, Rakell etc) and I think Edmonton’s offering him pretty much the opposite oppurtunity.

    I’d trade Kassian for anything and Russell for an overpaid forward in the neighbourhood, then try to get Rieder and Czarnik.

    I really enjoy your posts.

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    I sense you were privy to something recently that has soured you (more than usual) on The Org.

    Care to share?

  137. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record:

    Not a fan Rieder.

    Negative shot and goal metrics.

    3rd/4th line scoring levels.

    Pass, aim higher.

    At the correct price point and given his skating and penalty killing skill would he not be a good place holder and insurance policy for 3 rd line winger with occasional playing time top six until some of the younger prospects matriculate?

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR: The Oilers just showed us how they feel about big, fast, talented young men. I can sum it up in two words. Anton Slepyshev.

    In order to develop and succeed in the NHL you have to play. As an organization the Oilers value effort over impact. Again, I can sum it up in two words. Drake Cagguila.

    McLeod has the tools to be a dominating game breaker. But he takes many shifts and entire games off. The Oilers just made it very clear how important looking like your working your ass off is to them. And how much they dislike guys who float.

    We would also accpet:

    “How the Old School Dinosaur Head Coach feels about players who do not speak English as a first language”

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Truth: I hope that they trade Strome + Lucic or Russell for a bag of pucks (I’d prefer just Lucic or Russell, but I would pay the price of Strome because I think his perceived value is greater than his actual value). It would provide them some space to sign Derek Ryan and sign or trade for a decent RD.I believe Ryan would directly replace Strome (NOT like Lucic replaced Hall), and then the Oilers could replace Lucic or Russell at a much lower cap hit.

    I wonder if a Lucic and Sekera for Skinner and Faulk might happen July 1.

    The cap hits are close but the Canes would save 3M in cash, the shorter contracts of the Canes players offsets the the longer contracts of the Oilers players because of the lesser cash outlay, which many teams struggle with.

    We should be happy that cash is not an entrenched issue for the Oilers. As bad as Oiler things can be I don’t miss them being brokish.

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers: “Moneypuck” has caught up with two thirds of the league.

    “EDM is not among the teams that have called” – Probably

  141. Wilde says:

    VOR: I like the idea very much. Carr and Shore can be Yin to Duclair and Jurco’s Yang. Not fast, not particularly big or talented but quick, wicked smart, and remarkably effective. Throw in Rieder and you have great forward depth.

    How you’d deploy that depth is anyone’s guess. But it certainly wouldn’t break the bank.

    I’d do something like this:

    Nuge – 97 – Rieder / / Yamamoto

    Duclair – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi

    Lucic – Khaira – Strome

    Caggiula – Shore – Kassian

    I’d prefer to have 3.45M over having Caggiula and Kassian, really, so excercises like this are difficult.

    Yikes at all of this though. 85 point team.

    e: Added Rieder

  142. VOR says:

    My problem with BPA is nobody ever agrees on who is the best player on draft day. And the very best predictive models are only right about 66% of the time.

    Do enough redrafts and the problem is obvious. By the end of the first round, sometimes earlier, history tells us you might have well thrown darts at a spinning dart board. It is a random walk.

  143. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    VOR,

    I sense you were privy to something recently that has soured you (more than usual) on The Org.

    Care to share?

    I also noticed this. Was going to guess whiskey, though.

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Who are you liking?

    Haven’t looked.

    Looked at Rieder as he was being discussed.

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: He is better than Caggiula, and won’t cost much more.

    I wouldn’t have qualified Caggiula, let alone given him 2×1.5.

    Look at all the teams walking from marginal players this year.

    EDM should have walked from Caggiula.

  146. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    My problem with BPA is nobody ever agrees on who is the best player on draft day. And the very best predictive models are only right about 66% of the time.

    Do enough redrafts and the problem is obvious. By the end of the first round, sometimes earlier, history tells us you might have well thrown darts at a spinning dart board. It is a random walk.

    Truth. Outside of the top 3-5 depending on the year the odds of finding quality (a higher standard than games played) drop rapidly.

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: At the correct price point and given his skating and penalty killing skill would he not be a good place holder and insurance policy for 3 rd line winger with occasional playing time top six until some of the younger prospects matriculate?

    Maybe, but he his 5v5 play doesn’t show he can do that.

    I haven’t looked too deep so maybe he was fed to the wolves, but first blush is pretty meh.

  148. Wilde says:

    So many teams dumping RFA’s because of 50 man roster squeezes.

    Edmonton has a ton of room. Should be able to pluck 3-4 players here, would be easier if they didn’t sign Caggiula for so much so early.

  149. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Haven’t looked.

    Looked at Rieder as he was being discussed.

    For sure, thought you might have some up your sleeve.

    I’m thinking that there must be a few declining but competent centres that aren’t at the top of the UFA list that could spell off at C or W affordably, as good teams seem to find every summer that help for a year or two.

    That don’t need term of course.

  150. rickithebear says:

    Dmen last 2 seasons:
    Larsson RD 6’3” 209 3@ 4.167
    142gm 8evg 24eva 32 Evp +31

    Nurse LD 6’4” 221 (4@ 4.96M)
    126gm 11evg 26eva 37evp +15

    Benning RD 6’1” 204 2@ 1.9
    135gm 8evg 22eva 30evp +13

    Sekera LD 6’0” 200 3@ 5.5
    116gm 6evg 23eva 29evp -1

    Russell RD/LD 5’10” 173 3@ 4M
    146gm 5evg 26eva 31evp -2

    Klefbom LD 6’3” 215 5@ 4.167M
    148gm 12evg 23eva 35evp -5

    Ian Cole LD 6’1” 219 (3@ 3.1M; M. Cane)
    148gm 10evg 34eva 44evp +40

    DeHaan LD 6’1” 198 (1 @ 1.675)
    115gm 5evg 30eva 35evp +26

    Larsson last 2 years with
    Nurse 884:23 +12 1.97 evga/60
    Russell 202:05 even 2.08 evga/60

    Sekera,s Numbers last year were awful. He was not ready.
    Sekera 16-17 with
    Russell 842:16 +12 1.26 evga/60
    Benning 306:13 +2 2.35 evga/60
    Larsson 98:08 Even 3.67 evga/60
    As I have stated Sekera cannot handle 1st comp but is elite HD 2nd comp

    Klefbom with
    Benning 668:37 even 2.51 evga/60
    Larsson 1277:31 +6 2.54 evga/60

    Nurse with
    Benning 345:12 +11 2.09 evga/60

    Nurse – Larsson (1st comp) +12 1.97 evga/60
    Russell – Larsson (1st comp) even 2.08 evga/60
    Sekera – Russell (2nd comp) +12 1.26 evga/60
    Nurse – Benning (? Comp) +11 2.09 evga/60

    Please trade Klefbom!

    Plaease get Cole & Dehaan

  151. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    So many teams dumping RFA’s because of 50 man roster squeezes.

    Edmonton has a ton of room. Should be able to pluck 3-4 players here, would be easier if they didn’t sign Caggiula for so much so early.

    You’re notice that many of the RFAs being dumped have arb rights.

    No over paying for meh is finally in the NHL…..but not all teams.

  152. Alpine says:

    Feel like going for flawed, unqualified RFAs will yield better returns than potentially overpriced ‘name’ players in their late 20s or former ‘name’ players in their 30s. There’s gotta be some undervalued talent out there among all the meh.

  153. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You’re notice that many of the RFAs being dumped have arb rights.

    No over paying for meh is finally in the NHL…..but not all teams.

    This is gonna result in over two-thirds of qualifying offers not being extended for three years in a row and another piece gets added to the lockout puzzle.

  154. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I wouldn’t have qualified Caggiula, let alone given him 2×1.5.

    Look at all the teams walking from marginal players this year.

    EDM should have walked from Caggiula.

    Agree 100%.

  155. Ari says:

    Wonder Llama,

    Faulk
    – at 5v5, he perennially gives up more goals than he scores despite sporting ok raw Corsi.
    – his production at evens really dipped this past year. Was second lowest amongst all Dmen on his team.
    – not sure about whether he’s good on the PP, but as Dellow shows, dman production don’t mean better PP success.

    I think they’re better off getting another RHD. I don’t wholly disagree with your view on Lucic though. (I want to get rid of him too!). At least with Lucic – despite his massive drought – he still wins the goal share and his possession is decent. He takes too many penalties and I see that Faulk is poor in the penalty deferential too.

    *differential

  156. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I wouldn’t have qualified Caggiula, let alone given him 2×1.5.

    Look at all the teams walking from marginal players this year.

    EDM should have walked from Caggiula.

    I was hoping that decent amount of improvement would come this year from Caggulas replacement

  157. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Maybe, but he his 5v5 play doesn’t show he can do that.

    I haven’t looked too deep so maybe he was fed to the wolves, but first blush is pretty meh.

    I appreciate your insight. I remember his destroying the Dallas Eakins,Oiler power play for 2 of 3 short handed goals in one game. Indelibly imprinted so to speak!

  158. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Duclair scored at a ~34 point pace at 13.5 minutes a night. +4.17% xGFrel, +1.74% CFrel over the past two seasons in Arizona.

    ES P/60 of 1.72 last season.

    If he’s willing to come for cheap, that’d be a great fit in EDM imo. Just fire Caggiula into the sun, oh wait!

  159. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    godot10: Drake and Lucic probably should be cemented into the press box.

    And er….I know the OIlers aren’t going there so I will….Yakupov wasn’t qualified and is a UFA.

    #TeamTobiasRieder

    Quite the handle…a

    Decidedly
    Skeptical
    Fan

    Loved the unbridled passion Yak brought to the ice … will always have fond memories but EDM and Yak just weren’t ready for each other. Such a waste.

    Funny you should bring him up because it ties in nicely to some of the McCloud discussion on player fit. Let’s hope the organization learned something from the Yak experience, but probably not. Kind of hoping Yak ends up in Vegas with Gallant (aka the Hockey Whisperer) and just kills it.

    Regarding the handle … you are the first one to comment on that.

  160. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Braun had a bad year so I can see Wilson wanting to upgrade 1RD.

    Vlasic has 3-4 high end years left, maybe more as the aging curve is longer for the elite players

    Burns is the bogey here, but DeBoer shelters him pretty hard (Vlasic gets over 40% vs Elite F) so he won’t run out of steam just yet but I can’t put a number on it.

    Just read this from yesterday.

    There are elite HD dmen who can cover for the def abandoning offensive shit show dmen.
    14-15 to 16-17
    Karlsson
    With Methot 2714:01 +37 2.06evga/60
    Without 2583:10 -18 3.30 evga/60
    17-18
    Karlsson without 1558:04 -23 3.74 evga/60

    MR. Burns
    15-16 to 17-18
    With Martin 2389:28 +22 2.11 evga/60
    Without 2371:40. -22 3.47 evga/60

    You want stud def dmen cause they make fucking def disgraces like Karlsson and burns
    Palatable.
    Even though they are overpaid pieces of shit.

    MSM & Fans are fooled by the elite play of the Methots, Orpiks, & Martins.
    It is embarrassing how obvious this has been for years!

  161. OilSafety says:

    Duclair rider yak Davey

    Sign me up

  162. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    VOR,

    I sense you were privy to something recently that has soured you (more than usual) on The Org.

    Care to share?

    I am trying to figure out some way of explaining without revealing my sources.

    I had the opportunity to spend a morning golfing with three new sources for my scouting research. They are all from the same team.

    I hate golf, just so I am clear. I have a beautiful long game and the world’s most inconsistent short game and that makes me insane and it takes weeks after 18 holes for my back to settle down. But we were playing in pairs, best ball, so I am swinging less.

    Everybody wanted to play with me. They all know that off the tee or fairway I am money. They know my short game is bedevilled by a terrible case of the yips. But I don’t miss big, I just miss over and over again and again and again. I can miss a tap in. I play very rarely these days (back and frustration) but even so if I’m on the green or in the bunker I will leave my partner a make able putt. Making me perfect for best ball.

    They drew straws. I end up playing with a former scout now a senior executive with this successful NHL franchise. Turns out he is really into hockey metrics. So we have something to talk about.

    He doesn’t much like my fit theory. Though he admits his team does all this very sophisticated psychological testing both to see if the player is up to the rigours of pro hockey and if they are a fit for the team’s existing players. They go a bit further looking at emotional stability and self leadership off the ice. Not to mention addictive predictors and injury risk profiles. I am wondering, of course, what the Oilers do.

    He tells me, and I think he’d know, that Keith Gretzky is constantly working at getting better at his job and is apparently quite smart and thoughtful. I am feeling pretty good about the Oilers drafting all ready. Hearing another senior scout confirm it is music.

    Then he tells me it is a shame the organization has surrounded Keith with chaos and confusion. The first thing he tells me in support of this is his team tried to trade for Milan Lucic and encountered the Keystone Cops. Long story short the Oilers turned him down or didn’t take them seriously. Despite the fact they weren’t asking for sweeteners and thought they were offering a player with real upside in return. Their guy needed to move on and was young and cheap.

    They wanted Milan not for himself but because after July 1st they were going to flip him for a player they did want. In other words they were going to pony up the money and increase Milan’s trade value. He wouldn’t tell me the details.

    My playing partner had no idea why the Oilers nixed this deal or didn’t take it seriously.

    In the time since I’ve heard all sorts of trade deals for Lucic from insiders, from MSM, and on this blog. I have even pitched some of my own. None is close to the value the executive told me they had offered. I can only guess what they were getting in the flip. It must have been really good.

    Then over drinks after the round the three scouts were telling me they felt so sorry for Keith Gretzky. The guys told me the Oilers management kept trying to influence the draft board. But none of them could agree on how it should be done. I have since heard versions of this from half a dozen NHL insiders. Doesn’t mean it is true.

    The thing is I found it easy to believe. It fits a lot of known facts. I know enough now to say unequivocally this isn’t how outstanding organizations approach the draft. Most of the best wall off management from scouting. The Oilers let their management scout. Now it seems they let them mess around with the draft board.

    It made me grouchy. Every time I start thinking the Oilers have turned a corner I hear stories like this. I discount many of them totally and others partly but hearing the same tales of craptastic management over and over again puts me in a very bad mood. Minimally it means the rest of the NHL think the Oilers are, to quote Wayne Gretzky, “Mickey Mouse.”

    Oh well, at least it is the best I have golfed since I was in high school. And no pain. So thank heavens for small mercies.

  163. Professor Q says:

    Wilde: This is gonna result in over two-thirds of qualifying offers not being extended for three years in a row and another piece gets added to the lockout puzzle.

    If stars get paid $8-14 million, others aren’t qualified or signed if they’re asking for $1.5-4 because teams have no space or are cheap and fill the spaces with Entry Level or cheaper AHL and college players, where do the middle skill players go? Europe or KHL?

    Forced job crunch and lack of talent when there needn’t be.

    Lockout potential indeed.

  164. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OilSafety,

    I’d take Yak in a heartbeat

  165. Munny says:

    VOR,

    For the love of Gord what a shitshow.

  166. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: This is gonna result in over two-thirds of qualifying offers not being extended for three years in a row and another piece gets added to the lockout puzzle.

    I don’t think it’s even a hill for the NHLPA, let alone one to die on.

    Lots of RFAs are getting huge $ with term.

    The bottom 10% of players come and go like michaelangelo

  167. VOR says:

    At the same time my draft research keeps taking me further and further from the main stream.

    Not only am I struggling to explain what I have learned but also to give it practical application.

    It doesn’t help that the more I learn the less I know.

    AIDA, my artificial intelligence draft assistant named for Aida Babbage has gone right off the trolley tracks, or a lot of NHL scouts just got it horribly wrong.

    Between the two we are talking about me spending a decade of every free hour to drill a dry well.

    It is a long way beyond frustrating.

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: I appreciate your insight. I remember his destroying the Dallas Eakins,Oiler power play for 2 of 3 short handed goals in one game. Indelibly imprinted so to speak!

    There is no question that singular moments that we remember colour our opinion.

    Also,

    Thanks, I appreciate that.

  169. Munny says:

    VOR: I think Ryan McLeod is a potential top six forward. He has a world of talent. He is truly gifted.
    The problem is he doesn’t fit the Oilers’ culture very well. He has consistency of effort issues. And for a big, very strong, extremely fast player he shies away from the hard areas of the ice. Oilers coaching, management, and the team’s fan base have a long history of torching players with these specific issues. The culture of the Oilers is big, strong, fast players engage physically and win puck battles and forget about the fancy stuff.
    Ryan McLeod (check out highlight videos) can fly, can shoot, has great offensive vision/IQ, can dangle and most of all has magic hands. It isn’t clear if he even knows how to throw a body check. And he sure doesn’t know how to fight, or use his body to gain time and space. He will acquire a bad case of side burns in training camp and that will be Sayonara.

    This post got me to go watch a shift video of McLeod, and after doing so I have to ask you whatthehellareyoutalkingabout, sir?

    I mean he’s no Tkachuk, and he was playing C, but did go to the tuff areas, did throw body checks and cross checks, did fight through checks, came back to help out D in front of the crease and behind the net…

    He's certainly no Patrick O'Sullivan.

    His biggest knock to my eye is that–like most Junior players–he's in love with looping around rather than stopping and starting. Likely comes from such a stellar skating skill. It's something that needs to be trained out of every skill prospect that gets drafted (as I’m sure you know).

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Those are good numbers?

    I wonder why he’s on his 4thish team?

  171. Munny says:

    VOR: AIDA, my artificial intelligence draft assistant named for Aida Babbage

    I was going to go with Verdi.

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear: Just read this from yesterday.

    There are elite HD dmen who can cover for the def abandoning offensive shit show dmen.
    14-15 to 16-17
    Karlsson
    With Methot2714:01 +37 2.06evga/60
    Without 2583:10 -18 3.30 evga/60
    17-18
    Karlsson without 1558:04 -233.74 evga/60

    MR. Burns
    15-16 to 17-18
    With Martin 2389:28 +22 2.11 evga/60
    Without 2371:40. -22 3.47 evga/60

    You want stud def dmen cause they make fucking def disgraces like Karlsson and burns
    Palatable.
    Even though they are overpaid pieces of shit.

    MSM & Fans are fooled by the elite play of the Methots, Orpiks, & Martins.
    It is embarrassing how obvious this has been for years!

    Brent Burns career GF% is below 50% without Thornton.

    True story.

  173. Munny says:

    godot10: Rieder is the guy.That should be the target.Especially now that he is a UFA.

    His numbers aren’t that good, he’s going to want a raise and unless he’s doing Drai a solid, it will take a premium from the Oil to sign him over other suitors.

    Rieder is definitely not the guy.

  174. VOR says:

    Munny:
    VOR,

    For the love of Gord what a shitshow.

    Yes, if it is true it is a real shit show. I am not a journalist and have no idea how to verify any of it, nor the necessary resources. Gossiping, rumour mongering and telling tall tales are the social frame work of scouting. But the Lucic trade story matches some of what I have read in the MSM. Just never about this team.

  175. Munny says:

    VOR,

    If front office is that much of a mess with no structure and a gazillion Julia Childs… that’s completely 100 percent on Katz.

  176. Munny says:

    VOR,

    The Lucic thing I’m not as concerned about… could’ve been Looch that nixed it, and trades sometimes take time to come to fruition.

    However the draft stuff is appalling.

  177. rickithebear says:

    Off dmen abandon def of HD area. They require elite HD dmen who cover for them.
    When we look at the 15 best unit goal diff results for HD dmen in the playoffs since 05-06. Off dmen with elite HD partners not listed EX. #4
    #1 Orpik 17/18 +17
    #2 Chara 10/11 +16
    #2 Kronwall 7/8 +16
    #5 B. Stuart 7/8 +15
    #6 Vlasic 15/16 +14
    #7 Oduya 12/13 +12
    #7 Boychuk 9/10 +12
    #7 Seidenberg 9/10 +12
    #10 Hedman 14/15 +11
    #10 Lindstrom 8/9 +11
    #10 Doughty 11/12 +11
    #15 Hjarlmasson 12/13 +10
    #15 Ference 9/10 +10
    #15 pronger 5/6 +10
    #18 Hjarlmasson 9/10 +9
    #18 Rozival 12/13 +9
    #18 Scuderi 11/12 +9
    #18 Doumulin 16-17 +9
    You see a lot of HD dmens names repeat in cup finals. That is why VGK took the 9 HD dmen available. Mcnabb, Schmidt, Stoner, TVR, zmethot, Sbisa, Miller, Engelland, Garrison.

  178. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    Thanks for sharing Vor.

    1 GM and 3 former GMs who think they still matter and demand to be heard.

    There’s too many cooks and then there is Katz’s org.

    I don’t think it will get better either.

  179. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    At the same time my draft research keeps taking me further and further from the main stream.

    Not only am I struggling to explain what I have learned but also to give it practical application.

    It doesn’t help that the more I learn the less I know.

    AIDA, my artificial intelligence draft assistant named for Aida Babbage has gone right off the trolley tracks, or a lot of NHL scouts just got it horribly wrong.

    Between the two we are talking about me spending a decade of every free hour to drill a dry well.

    It is a long way beyond frustrating.

    Someone if follow on twitter posted their draft model, said it failed miserably and asked for help.

    Was that you?

  180. Munny says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t believe that is true because Nash signed a pro contract immediately after the Oilers traded him.

    He wanted out. That much is clear. The Oilers kept the reason to themselves.

    If you read reports at the time, it isn’t clear at all. Nash also felt like he owed MacGregor and the Oil, but was being loyal to his brother. I don’t think there’s any bad blood there, unless it’s from the firing of Stu.

  181. Munny says:

    Primetime,

    OilArt: After talking to a few people from PA I got the feeling that Leon didn’t like the town much. The hockey program is pretty good, however The city is a rough place. Tbh It wouldn’t surprise me if Leon advised him to not go there.

    Actually the organization was a tire fire at the time, hence the Oilers refusal to return Drai to Junior until his rights were traded to Kelowna.

  182. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    I would like to share your post with a link on twitter.

    Normally I don’t ask because LT’s is public so it’s “out there” and mostly it’s to share awesome posts, but I thought in this case I should ask.

  183. jm363561 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I wouldn’t have qualified Caggiula, let alone given him 2×1.5.

    Look at all the teams walking from marginal players this year.

    EDM should have walked from Caggiula.

    Totally agree. Gryba, Pouliot, Montoya. Death by salami.

  184. ArmchairGM says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Yes, I agree he may have the talent to be a top 6LW, but not here.Just don’t see the opportunity.Nuge is 1LW as he should be.Drake/Looch look cemented into the 2/3LW slots, not sure the order, which will be a disaster once again.

    Drake/Looch are not cemented anywhere. Based on this past season Lucic looks best on the 3rd line, while Caggiula can play either wing equally badly. Khaira had the best 2LW results, but acquiring an upgrade would be welcome.

  185. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Brent Burns career GF% is below 50% without Thornton.

    True story.

    Story?

    Thier is a guy out thier who built a database without marrying video with math.
    If he had he he would not have used dangerous Fenwick.

    Watch some video.
    If the Off dmen is not in the video they are having a huge impact on HD affect.
    Thier is an actual average for that.

    If you watch video and a Dman is covering that critical area.
    Yielding better HD and unit dif results.
    The dman not in the picture or his expected position has nothing to do with that.

    Watch some video BOY!

  186. VOR says:

    Munny: This post got me to go watch a shift video of McLeod, and after doing so I have to ask you whatthehellareyoutalkingabout, sir?

    I mean he’s no Tkachuk, and he was playing C, but did go to the tuff areas, did throw body checks and cross checks, did fight through checks, came back to help out D in front of the crease and behind the net…

    He’s certainly no Patrick O’Sullivan.

    His biggest knock to my eye is that–like most Junior players–he’s in love with looping around rather than stopping and starting. Likely comes from such good skating.It’s something that needs to be trained out of every skill prospect that gets drafted.

    The first thing I said was he has consistency of effort problems. You saw the sort of video that makes it clear he is a first round talent. Wait until you see some film from a shift or game where his give a shit meter is on zero.

    I never suggested he was Patrick or even Jordan. For me the closest comparable is Pancakes. When Ryan cares he is all in and can dominate even take over a game. When he doesn’t care he starts showing all of the behaviours I describe. This is why he kept getting exiled to the wing. It was punishment.

    This is a kid who the majority of scouting reports agree on. First round talent with serious consistency of effort issues. Some mention exactly what it looks like when he doesn’t care. They saw it the same way I do. He becomes a low impact perimeter player.

    I will say it again, if I were running a team he’d have been way up my draft board, far above 40. But the Oilers brain trust will watch him go walkabout a few times and he will go long, long sideburns.

  187. rickithebear says:

    Hey WG!

    Have you started watching video yet?

  188. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    VOR,

    I would like to share your post with a link on twitter.

    Normally I don’t ask because LT’s is public so it’s “out there” and mostly it’s to share awesome posts, but I thought in this case I should ask.

    Feel free.

  189. rickithebear says:

    WG:

    Rumour has it you do not actually look at the wood being graded.
    Someone hands you a paper with numbers on it.
    Then you pick the least accurate information to put in.

    Standard mode of operation?

  190. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Someone if follow on twitter posted their draft model, said it failed miserably and asked for help.

    Was that you?

    No, though I am glad to know I am not alone. I don’t use Twitter.

  191. Oilman99 says:

    VOR: We will see really soon. Chicago’s not qualifying Anthony Duclair and Thomas Jurco gives us a great test case. Let’s say you want to get faster but you want to be big and fast then here are two cheap players. Jurco has been a great AHL player and finally seems ready to accept and fill a fourth line role. He is big and really fast, an explosive skater – on the right fourth line he could turn into Curtis Glencross.

    Duclair is even bigger and fills a third line role. And he can fly. Sure he is a head case but he is a cheap, talented and very fast head case.

    Both these guys will be cheap and having something to prove. Their underlying metrics suggest if some team is playing Moneyball they’d be prime targets.

    Some team could sign Reider, Jurco, and Duclair. That would be a good start on one of the fastest groups of forwards in hockey.

    We need a top six forward, third line pluggers.

  192. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    Off dmen abandon def of HD area. They require elite HD dmen who cover for them.
    When we look at the 15 best unit goal diff results for HD dmen in the playoffs since 05-06. Off dmen with elite HD partners not listed EX. #4
    #1 Orpik 17/18 +17
    #2 Chara 10/11 +16
    #2 Kronwall 7/8 +16
    #5 B. Stuart 7/8 +15
    #6 Vlasic 15/16 +14
    #7 Oduya 12/13 +12
    #7 Boychuk 9/10 +12
    #7 Seidenberg 9/10 +12
    #10 Hedman 14/15 +11
    #10 Lindstrom 8/9 +11
    #10 Doughty 11/12 +11
    #15 Hjarlmasson 12/13 +10
    #15 Ference 9/10 +10
    #15 pronger 5/6 +10
    #18 Hjarlmasson 9/10 +9
    #18 Rozival 12/13 +9
    #18 Scuderi 11/12 +9
    #18 Doumulin 16-17 +9
    You see a lot of HD dmens names repeat in cup finals. That is why VGK took the 9 HD dmen available. Mcnabb, Schmidt, Stoner, TVR, zmethot, Sbisa, Miller, Engelland, Garrison.

    No shitty offensive dmen do that. Defensive skill sets and offensive skill sets are different skill sets. They are not mutually exclusive.
    Also Vegas picked Defensive dmen because no one was giving them Two way d men
    Also Vegas got as far as they did despite some of the names above not because of them

    Also I can sense your woodguy jealousy from here

  193. Oilman99 says:

    VOR: I am trying to figure out some way of explaining without revealing my sources.

    I had the opportunity to spend a morning golfing with three new sources for my scouting research. They are all from the same team.

    I hate golf, just so I am clear. I have a beautiful long game and the world’s most inconsistent short game and that makes me insane and it takes weeks after 18 holes for my back to settle down. But we were playing in pairs, best ball, so I am swinging less.

    Everybody wanted to play with me. They all know that off the tee or fairway I am money. They know my short game is bedevilled by a terrible case of the yips. But I don’t miss big, I just miss over and over again and again and again. I can miss a tap in. I play very rarely these days (back and frustration) but even so if I’m on the green or in the bunker I will leave my partner a make able putt. Making me perfect for best ball.

    They drew straws. I end up playing with a former scout now a senior executive with this successful NHL franchise. Turns out he is really into hockey metrics. So we have something to talk about.

    He doesn’t much like my fit theory. Though he admits his team does all this very sophisticated psychological testing both to see if the player is up to the rigours of pro hockey and if they are a fit for the team’s existing players. They go a bit further looking at emotional stability and self leadership off the ice. Not to mention addictive predictors and injury risk profiles. I am wondering, of course, what the Oilers do.

    He tells me, and I think he’d know, that Keith Gretzky is constantly working at getting better at his job and is apparently quite smart and thoughtful. I am feeling pretty good about the Oilers drafting all ready. Hearing another senior scout confirm it is music.

    Then he tells me it is a shame the organization has surrounded Keith with chaos and confusion. The first thing he tells me in support of this is his team tried to trade for Milan Lucic and encountered the Keystone Cops. Long story short the Oilers turned him down or didn’t take them seriously. Despite the fact they weren’t asking for sweeteners and thought they were offering a player with real upside in return. Their guy needed to move on and was young and cheap.

    They wanted Milan not for himself but because after July 1st they were going to flip him for a player they did want. In other words they were going to pony up the money and increase Milan’s trade value. He wouldn’t tell me the details.

    My playing partner had no idea why the Oilers nixed this deal or didn’t take it seriously.

    In the time since I’ve heard all sorts of trade deals for Lucic from insiders, from MSM, and on this blog. I have even pitched some of my own. None is close to the value the executive told me they had offered. I can only guess what they were getting in the flip. It must have been really good.

    Then over drinks after the round the three scouts were telling me they felt so sorry for Keith Gretzky. The guys told me the Oilers management kept trying to influence the draft board. But none of them could agree on how it should be done. I have since heard versions of this from half a dozen NHL insiders. Doesn’t mean it is true.

    The thing is I found it easy to believe. It fits a lot of known facts. I know enough now to say unequivocally this isn’t how outstanding organizations approach the draft. Most of the best wall off management from scouting. The Oilers let their management scout. Now it seems they let them mess around with the draft board.

    It made me grouchy. Every time I start thinking the Oilers have turned a corner I hear stories like this. I discount many of them totally and others partly but hearing the same tales of craptastic management over and over again puts me in a very bad mood. Minimally it means the rest of the NHL think the Oilers are, to quote Wayne Gretzky, “Mickey Mouse.”

    Oh well, at least it is the best I have golfed since I was in high school. And no pain. So thank heavens for small mercies.

    Too many cooks spoil the soup. Bobby Nick needs to kick, or get out of the kitchen.

  194. Jaxon says:

    Dylan DeMelo wasn’t given a qualifying offer and is now unrestricted.

    He’s a pretty interesting option for RHD. His 5-on-5 P/60 of D who played more than 1000 minutes in the last 2 seasons is the 10th highest in the NHL. The main caveat being that he was playing fairly sheltered minutes just like Sergachev, Mayfield, Pulock and Butcher.

    Player – P/60 – Team – TOI/GP
    Brent Burns – 1.42 – S.J – 18.67
    Erik Karlsson – 1.41 – OTT – 19.89
    Dougie Hamilton – 1.29 – CGY – 16.51
    Andrei Markov – 1.27 – MTL – 16.71
    Mikhail Sergachev – 1.23 – MTL/ T.B – 12.88
    Victor Hedman – 1.2 – T.B – 18.21
    John Klingberg – 1.19 – DAL – 18.33
    Roman Josi – 1.17 – NSH – 17.78
    Jacob Trouba – 1.15 – WPG – 18.16
    Dylan Demelo – 1.12 – S.J – 13.34
    Ryan Ellis – 1.12 – NSH – 17.74
    Matt Niskanen – 1.12 – WSH – 17.63
    Charlie Mcavoy – 1.1 – BOS – 18.13
    Scott Mayfield – 1.09 – NYI – 15.24
    Tyson Barrie – 1.09 – COL – 18.24
    Jake Gardiner – 1.06 – TOR – 18.23
    Ryan Pulock – 1.06 – NYI – 15.60
    PK Subban – 1.04 – NSH – 17.89
    Alex Pietrangelo – 1.04 – STL – 18.97
    Seth Jones – 1.04 – CBJ – 18.44
    Jared Spurgeon – 1.02 – MIN – 18.38
    John Carlson – 1.02 – WSH – 16.74
    Matt Dumba – 1.02 – MIN – 17.80
    Paul Martin – 1.01 – S.J – 16.51
    Josh Manson – 1 – ANA – 16.33
    Nick Leddy – 0.99 – NYI – 17.60
    Will Butcher – 0.97 – N.J – 12.96
    Thomas Hickey – 0.97 – NYI – 14.97
    Jaccob Slavin – 0.96 – CAR – 18.31
    Keith Yandle – 0.96 – FLA – 16.76
    Radko Gudas – 0.94 – PHI – 15.76

    OILERS
    Darnell Nurse – 0.79 – EDM – 17.54
    Oscar Klefbom – 0.74 – EDM – 16.95
    Andrej Sekera – 0.73 – EDM – 15.56
    Matt Benning – 0.73 – EDM – 15.16
    Kris Russell – 0.63 – EDM – 17.00
    Adam Larsson – 0.56 – EDM – 18.13

    Nurse is the highest Oiler with .79 P/60

    EDIT: Do I think he has a chance at being a long term solution at 2RD? Highly unlikely. Could he challenge the current roster for 2RHD & 3RHD? I think so. Does that help the Oilers? Not sure. But, as I said, he is an interesting option to look into.

  195. VOR says:

    Oilman99: We need a top six forward, third line pluggers.

    Duclair when he is in give a shit mode is a top six forward. He has played top six minutes for both Arizona and Chicago. But part of what killed the Oilers early last season was no bottom six offence. Jurco can contribute and based on his WC play he can play top six minutes as well. The fascinating thing about Shore is while producing next to no offence manages to saw off. He is a defensive savant. Carr is odd man out, he hasn’t shown much.so far but he is better defensively than Drake, a lot better. And he is a local boy. But this is all about depth and balance.

  196. OriginalPouzar says:

    What’s the deal with this guy? How does a guy that puts up those offensive numbers not get qualified at well under $1M?

    His goal share was above 50% and his relative goal share percentage a positive.

  197. €√¥£€^$ says:

    VOR,

    You have no idea how much I appreciate you!

    I always look forward to your next post. Thank you for all that you do!

    Sincerely

  198. OilSafety says:

    You know, sometimes reading through these comments I pause, and when I do its because I’m trying to create a mental picture of what a poster is like in real life.

    Most times I think, ‘I’d Crack a cold one with that guy/gal’

    But every now and then, I just shake my head and am glad there’s an entire Internet between us.

  199. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: No thanks. His record is incredibly inconsistent.Would rather have Maroon at $4 mill and I don’t even want Maroon.

    Since 2009-2010, of forwards with 750 minutes or more, Grabner is 22nd in G/60:

    Player G/60
    Auston Matthews 1.58
    Patrik Laine 1.24
    Brock Boeser 1.24
    Steven Stamkos 1.23
    Vladimir Tarasenko 1.16
    Connor Mcdavid 1.16
    Rick Nash 1.15
    Brent Burns 1.14
    Sidney Crosby 1.13
    Alex Ovechkin 1.12
    Andreas Athanasiou 1.11
    Nikita Kucherov 1.09
    Jeff Skinner 1.08
    Anders Lee 1.08
    Evgeni Malkin 1.07
    James Neal 1.07
    David Pastrnak 1.05
    Alex Debrincat 1.04
    Conor Sheary 1.03
    Jamie Benn 1.03
    Nico Hischier 1.03
    Michael Grabner 1.03

    EDIT: Maroon is 114th on this list with .83 and a lot of Maroon’s minutes are with McDavid, or Getzlaf/Perry. I’ll give you that Grabner did some of those years with Tavares, but he also did his two recent 29 and 35 goal paces with JT Miller, who is not near Tavares or McDavid, or even Getzlaf/Perry.

  200. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Jaxon,

    Thank you Jaxon for all your efforts leading up to the draft and even now as you are digging into the under-appreciated UFA’s. I don’t remember so many young players with this much potential not receiving QO’s, am I miss-remembering?

    Solid work Jaxon, it is much appreciated!

    And now thanks to you I have demeloitis (in a good way).

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