Anticipation

A nice bonus for NHL general managers yesterday, lots of young wingers were set free instead of being qualified. So, a plethora of RFA are poised to become UFA. The Oilers need some help and they need it for around $1 million a pop. Let’s have a look.

The photo today is by Bruce McCurdy, who has a report on day one of the orientation camp for the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal (here). Evan Bouchard looked big and tall, and can in fact skate backwards very well. The Billy Moores Cup will take place later in the week, we should get a little more hockey chatter from that event.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

We’ve talked about him at length, I still think the Oilers have a chance to get him. Based purely on opportunity, he should consider Edmonton a strong option. Seriously. In 2016-17, he had good possession numbers on a depth line:

  • Matt Beleskey—Riley Nash—Austin Czarnik. 106 minutes, 59.04 Corsi 5×5, 1-2GF.

His NHLE from last season (15-27-42) suggests Czarnik might be able to play a complementary role on a skill line. You know, Blair MacDonald and Brett Callighen didn’t have draft pedigree and worked out well back in the day. I think Czarnik should be a target, have said so many times over the winter and spring. I wrote about him in April at The Athletic, those things he brings (speed, dogged forecheck and some penalty killing) all have value to the Oilers.

I’ve always liked Rieder, ranked Duclair No. 44 in his draft year and noticed him in his big season. Daniel Carr is well liked by smart Habs fans, that’s usually a good sign. Here are the most often used lines involving each man a year ago:

  • Brendan Perlini—Derek Stepan—Tobias Rieder. 228 minutes, 44.09, 5-5GF
  • Anthony Duclair—Jonathan Toews—Alex DeBrincat. 95 minutes, 51.15, 6-4GF
  • N. Deslauriers—Daniel Carr—Byron Froese. 154 minutes, 47.72, 7-5GF

THE LIST (FORWARDS)

  1. R Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets. I’d absolutely pay full price.
  2. L Andre Burakovsky, Washington Capitals. He’s a brilliant young player.
  3. R Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins. A strong scoring option.
  4. R Andreas Athanasiou, Detroit Red Wings. Impressive young player.
  5. R Wayne Simmonds, Philadelphia Flyers. One of my favorite players.
  6. L Jeff Skinner, Carolina Hurricanes. Speed merchant and a born scorer.
  7. L Max Pacioretty, Montreal Canadiens. Talented scorer.
  8. L Vladislav Namestnikov, NY Rangers. Skilled winger apparently available. (RFA)
  9. R Tobias Rieder, Los Angeles Kings. Potentially a perfect fit depending on price point.
  10. R Connor Brown, Toronto Maple Leafs. Solid young winger with some NHL experience.
  11. RC Austin Czarnik, Boston Bruins. Among the top scorers in the AHL.
  12. L Anthony Duclair, Chicago Blackhawks. A bit of a reclamation project, has talent.
  13. R Devante Smith-Pelly, Washington Capitals. If he’s available, Oilers will pursue.
  14. R David Backes, Boston Bruins. If Boston takes back Lucic.
  15. R Josh Leivo, Toronto Maple Leafs. Talented winger never plays.
  16. L Warren Foegele, Carolina HurricanesBig forward with skill and two-way acumen.
  17. L Nic Petan, Winnipeg JetsUndersized and very creative.
  18. LC Daniel Carr, Montreal Canadiens. He’s an under the radar option but can play 4C.
  19. W Peter Cehlarik, Boston Bruins. Big forward with skill.
  20. LC Matthew Peca, Tampa Bay Lightning. He’s a solid No. 4 C option.
  21. LC Lucas Wallmark, Carolina Hurricanes. Nice range of skills.
  22. LC Zack Smith, Ottawa Senators. One of a few No. 4C options.

THE LIST (DEFENCE)

  1. RD Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild. A strong option at a major price.
  2. RD Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Might be the best option.
  3. RD Chris Tanev, Vancouver Canucks. Seldom mentioned, he can help the Oilers.
  4. RD Dylan Demolo, San Jose Sharks. A nice fit, surprised he’s available.
  5. LD Torey Krug, Boston Bruins. He posts terrific boxcars.
  6. RD Alex Petrovic, Florida Panthers. Big, strong shutdown blue.
  7. RD Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes. He is available, seems a default option.
  8. LD Brandon Davidson, Edmonton Oilers. I still like him despite the wobble.

FREE AGENT CLARITY

  • G Nick Ellis RFA. Retired.
  • G Laurent Brossoit UFA. Unlikely to return.
  • LD Darnell Nurse RFA. Qualified.
  • RD Matt Benning RFA. Signed. 
  • LD Yohann Auvitu UFA. Reportedly heading back to Europe, there’s an NHL player here.
  • RD Mark Fayne UFA. He’s done with the Oilers.
  • LD Keegan Lowe UFA. Signed. 
  • LD Dillon Simpson UFA. Same spot as Lowe, likely room for only one.
  • LD Joey Laleggia UFA. He’ll sign with an NHL team that sees him as a defenseman. Maybe Vancouver.
  • LD Ben Betker RFA. Not qualified.
  • RC Ryan Strome RFA. Qualified.
  • RC Kyle Platzer RFA. Not qualified.
  • LC Grayson Downing UFA. Unlikely to return.
  • L Mike Cammalleri UFA. I liked his contribution but the Oilers need more speed.
  • L Drake Caggiula RFA. Signed. 
  • L Braden Christoffer RFA. Signed an AHL deal with Bakersfield. 
  • R Anton Slepyshev RFA. Heading to Russia, qualified. 
  • R Iiro Pakarinen RFA. Also heading to Russia. 
  • R Patrick Russell. Signed.
  • R Brian Ferlin UFA. Barely got on the ice.

215 GOALS, NEED MORE

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins [25]—Connor McDavid [40]—Ty Rattie [12]
  • Milan Lucic [15]—Leon Draisaitl [27]—Drake Caggiula [12]
  • Jujhar Khaira [8]—Ryan Strome [15]—Jesse Puljujarvi [16]
  • Pontus Aberg [7]—Brad Malone [3]—Zack Kassian [8]
  • Oscar Klefbom [8]—Adam Larsson [2]
  • Andrej Sekera [4]—Kris Russell [2]
  • Darnell Nurse [5]—Matt Benning [6]
  • Cam Talbot3—Mikko Koskinen

These are my projections from late last week, they were met with universal applause and agreement. Everyone agreed. Oilers need wingers, ladies and men.

CHIARELLI’S NEEDS LIST

  • A scoring winger capable of sliding up and down the depth chart as required (Rattie insurance and a finisher for Leon’s line).
  • A two-way winger who can provide veteran presence on the third line.
  • A second-pairing defender (patience may require this solution arrives later, and it might be Matt Benning until Evan Bouchard is ready).
  • A backup goalie (Mikko Koskinen).

CHIARELLI’S ASSETS LIST

 

  • Milan Lucic.  No idea what the market might be, suspect he goes after July 1.
  • Zack Kassian. He’s likely in a few conversations.
  • 2019 first-round pick. It would have lots of value.
  • Oscar Klefbom. The OEL signing has him moving down my list (from No. 1).
  • Jesse Puljujarvi. He’s vulnerable, suspect they’ll regret dealing the big man.
  • Ryan Strome. Oilers may want to reset that third line.
  • Andrej Sekera. Injury unknown likely keeps him here.
  • Kris Russell. NMC probably keeps him here.
  • Cam Talbot. I don’t believe it but his name is out there.

The Oilers are going to have to get innovative, and a buyout (Sekera?) is possible. There are some nice options available in free agency, the players not qualified give the Oilers a chance to shoot the gap and come out dry on the other side. Now, some of those names not qualified are entirely likely to be signed by their teams before July 1.

If you’re asking me, I think the Oilers may have a July 2-5 deal for Milan Lucic lined up, and are going to be shopping in the bargain section. Austin Czarnik, Matthew Peca, Brandon Davidson. You should not expect more from free agency, the big move (if it comes) will arrive via trade.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

The usual suspects for Tuesday, they happen to be interesting, begins at 10 this morning on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Fixing the holes where the rain comes in, draft, free agency and finding cap room.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Dallas was hot, Oilers got their man, Eskimos uneven, Ricky Ray.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Tavares watch, teams still have much to do and free agency can’t answer all of the questions.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

148 Responses to "Anticipation"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    If Lucic somehow does get moved after July 1, I wouldn’t mind Chia kicking the tires on acquisition cost for Vladislav Namestnikov as a replacement middle 6 LW.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dylan DeMelo was mentioned in yesterday’s thread and he looks like a very intriguing option for a right shot D that can produce – I assume he can move the puck (but I’m assuming based on offensive production).

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    A buyout of a d-man, not that I think it would happen, has to be Russell, not Sekera, doesn’t it?

    I mean, yes, Sekera was a shadow of himself last year but we know he is going to be materially better – maybe not 100% but a 75% Sekera is more valuable that a 100% Russell (and I don’t mind Kris Russel in a 3rd pairing role – not a 2RD role).

    Also, lets not forget, Sekera’s NMC falls away prior to the expansion draft whereas it looks like Russell’s sticks through the expansion draft and would have to be protected – that’s a massive difference.

  4. slopitch says:

    What an underwhelming group of wingers. I was chatting with Laddy Smid on the weekend (he’s building a house in Crestwood but plays hockey in the Czech league in the winters) and he thought the Oilers had a great core but were missing a lot of secondary scoring. Not exactly earth shattering given the look of the roster. Its too bad Panarin seems intent on LA, NY. They said the same about Talbot not wanting to come here and he signed so I wont rule it out. I think its worth the risk. Panarin is an absolute game changer and river pusher. As for mid-range trades, my target would be Namestnikov. I like Simmonds but think he’d cost too much.

    The next couple weeks kinda depends on moving Lucic and/or Sekera. If they cant move salary there isn’t a ton of options. And Chai doesnt have a great track record winning trades. I cant see Chai sitting on his hands and doing nothing, especially given that he knows he doesnt have a lot of rope left. Its tough to bank on JP emerging next year – that was kind of the bet last year. The core is too good on this team. The top paring D costs 8 million. What will the Oilers do? I was nervous they were gonna move the pick at the draft. I’ll be a nervous guy the next week too.

  5. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    A buyout of a d-man, not that I think it would happen, has to be Russell, not Sekera, doesn’t it?

    I mean, yes, Sekera was a shadow of himself last year but we know he is going to be materially better – maybe not 100% but a 75% Sekera is more valuable that a 100% Russell (and I don’t mind Kris Russel in a 3rd pairing role – not a 2RD role).

    Also, lets not forget, Sekera’s NMC falls away prior to the expansion draft whereas it looks like Russell’s sticks through the expansion draft and would have to be protected – that’s a massive difference.

    Yup. This. I think it will only get harder to unload Russell until they have to buy him out in the end anyway. If they can’t unload Lucic and they still need some cap space, then the buyout has to be Russell.

  6. puckwatcher says:

    Thoughts on signing Mrazek. He seemed destined to be a solid starter at one point earlier in his career, definitely a better option than Noskinen

  7. Jaxon says:

    Players I’d like to see explored more:

    Depending on price:
    UFAs: Tobias Rieder, Dylan DeMelo, Michael Grabner
    RFAs: Andreas Athanasiou (trade?)

    Just sign them to a cheap ELC with no bonuses:
    Undrafted: Tristen Nielsen, Pavel Gogolev

    Trade:
    Lucic for a short term RHD with some offensive production that can pay 2RHD and some PP.

    Buyout:
    Russell if Lucic gets you that 2RHD.

  8. stephen sheps says:

    Will read the comments shortly but the blog is having issues with mobile, at least with iOS. Had to log in to even be able to see the comments and today’s post wasn’t visible. Had to get here via twitter link rather than directly

  9. jm363561 says:

    stephen sheps:
    Will read the comments shortly but the blog is having issues with mobile, at least with iOS. Had to log in to even be able to see the comments and today’s post wasn’t visible. Had to get here via twitter link rather than directly

    Ditto

  10. N64 says:

    stephen sheps:
    Will read the comments shortly but the blog is having issues with mobile, at least with iOS. Had to log in to even be able to see the comments and today’s post wasn’t visible. Had to get here via twitter link rather than directly

    Same from a pc today. could not see this article before logging in.

  11. Rondo says:

    Wonder if Oilers are interested in Calvin De Haan.

  12. Lowetide says:

    RE: Problems getting to the site. Yesterday I adjusted to https from old way for security reasons. You’ll notice a ‘secure’ lock at the top left of the address. I did it because not doing it meant bad things. I will check with my provider later today and find out a fix. Sorry for inconvenience.

  13. newkidpopcan says:

    Had lunch today at a nice waterfront restaurant in Bellagio, Italy on Lake Como. Zack Kassian was at the table next to us. The group was talking about the danger of being traded in the next week. They weren’t specifically talking about Kass just that a lot of players get moved at this time of the year. Interesting.

  14. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks for the update. I cleared my cache and reset the bookmark to having the s included. No help. Hopefully it’s an easy fix on your end.

  15. Lowetide says:

    stephen sheps:
    Lowetide,

    Thanks for the update. I cleared my cache and reset the bookmark to having the s included. No help. Hopefully it’s an easy fix on your end.

    Do you use Chrome? Can you try using a different method? trying to figure this out

  16. DBO says:

    Reider at 2 X $2.0 mill
    Trade for Faulk (Jones and pick unles you can get them to take Sekera or Russell, and some magic beans)
    Move Benning for Burokovsky from Washington, who needs to shed salary

    For those wondering Russell buyout according to CapFriendly

    Cap Hit Calculations
    SEASON BASE SALARY INITIAL CAP HIT ACTUAL COST SAVINGS FINAL CAP HIT
    2018-19 $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $1,111,111 $3,388,889 $611,111
    2019-20 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $1,111,111 $2,888,889 $1,111,111
    2020-21 $1,500,000 $4,000,000 $1,111,111 $388,889 $3,611,111
    2021-22 $0 $0 $1,111,111 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111
    2022-23 $0 $0 $1,111,111 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111
    2023-24 $0 $0 $1,111,111 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111
    TOTAL $10,000,000 $12,000,000 $6,666,667 $3,333,333 $8,666,667

    So this year cap hit would be $611 111. then $1.1 rest of way except for year 3, which is $3.6 mill. may not be an issue due to rising cap world, and does clear out the issue for protection for expansion draft. I just wonder if they keep him this year and buy him out next year since it saves a bunch of money as well as only on cap for 4 years instead of 6

  17. leadfarmer says:

    stephen sheps:
    Lowetide,

    Thanks for the update. I cleared my cache and reset the bookmark to having the s included. No help. Hopefully it’s an easy fix on your end.

    You have to log in. Thats the only way I can see todays post and yesterdays comments past the first 82

  18. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide,

    I use chrome at home and there was no issue. Safari on the iPhone was initially the problem but I ended up deleting and manually re-entering the web address into my bookmarks, closed the app and restarted the phone. No issues now. Saw new comments before logging back in to respond to you.

    Maybe it’s fixed?

  19. leadfarmer says:

    Rondo:
    Wonder if Oilers are interested in Calvin De Haan.

    I think Dehaan will price himself out of our range.

  20. stephen sheps says:

    leadfarmer: You have to log in.Thats the only way I can see todays post and yesterdays comments past the first 82

    Yep. That was my issue as well.
    Seems to be resolved now.

  21. leadfarmer says:

    So if Rust gets 4 years at 3.5 mil per what does that do to our Strome negotiations?

  22. OmJo says:

    How many seasons until Brossoit becomes the next Dubnyk?

  23. Lowetide says:

    stephen sheps:
    Lowetide,

    I use chrome at home and there was no issue. Safari on the iPhone was initially the problem but I ended up deleting and manually re-entering the web address into my bookmarks, closed the app and restarted the phone. No issues now. Saw new comments before logging back in to respond to you.

    Maybe it’s fixed?

    I hope so!

  24. VOR says:

    I have been thinking about October 10, 1980. I drove in from Coal Valley to attend the Oilers home opener. It was a hell of a trip including wicked thunder storms that flooded Highway 16. It was an omen or sign. A portent perhaps.

    The road team were the Quebec Nordiques. Watching Peter and Anton Statsny toy with the Oilers my reasonable expectation could be summed up as play the Gretzky line until he drops and pray for a miracle. I knew I was looking at a team that was a steaming pile. They’d go 4-9-5 to open the season. All while Wayne Gretzky ripped the league apart.

    That night I would have laughed in your face if you told me we were 9 days from Dave Semenko’s first hat trick never mind that we were 40 days from the first hat trick by a checker named Jari Kurri. Or that we were just 61 one games from Charlie Huddy’s first NHL game and the arrival of Andy Moog. And I’d have thought you were having a bad trip if you’d told me I was watching 5 Hall of Famers and the core of the greatest hockey team the world has ever seen. But history says I was.

    As for the preposterous idea that the season would end with the Oilers destroying the Canadiens dynasty nobody’s brain, not even on acid, could have imagined that.

    So as I sit here reading reasonable expectations that strongly suggest the Oilers will fall flat on their faces this year I can’t help wondering if the pieces are all there but we just don’t know it yet. Are we racing up on a bright new dawn?

  25. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide: I hope so!

    Me too! A day without comments is a sad day

  26. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OmJo,

    He will split the crease with Raantta this season, and finish 5th in vezina voting

  27. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    The leftorium still needs to be fixed. If they can acquire Faulk (or Dumba) for Klefbom, why not do it now. I’m not trying to run Oscar out of town, but we’re stuck with 2 NMC on the left side. I’ve read a few places where the search for the RHD is over now that Bouchard is here. If the plan is to keep things as-is until he is on the roster, we need a new plan. Ryan Ellis was picked 11th overall, and then spent another year in junior, followed by splitting 2 seasons between NSH and AHL before he was even a full-time NHL’er. I’d like to see Bouchard take a similar path if he can turn into Ryan Ellis when he’s done. Russel playing the left side for a whole year would help his performance, and it would make Bouchard have to earn his spot. It’s like they are saving a spot for him if they don’t get a RHD now. Competition for jobs is a good thing!!

  28. PokeCheck says:

    Nice to see Talbot projected to step things up with 3 goals next year.

    OmJo: How many seasons until Brossoit becomes the next Dubnyk?

    Infinity?

  29. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    So if Rust gets 4 years at 3.5 mil per what does that do to our Strome negotiations?

    Strome has his QO. If he doesn’t like it, let him walk.

  30. russ99 says:

    With all the talent set loose, why did we overpay Caggula again?

    Ditto Strome, now that the QO is in and with Peter’s track record, his agent is looking for more than that if he’s any kind of agent.

  31. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    A buyout of a d-man, not that I think it would happen, has to be Russell, not Sekera, doesn’t it?

    I mean, yes, Sekera was a shadow of himself last year but we know he is going to be materially better – maybe not 100% but a 75% Sekera is more valuable that a 100% Russell (and I don’t mind Kris Russel in a 3rd pairing role – not a 2RD role).

    Also, lets not forget, Sekera’s NMC falls away prior to the expansion draft whereas it looks like Russell’s sticks through the expansion draft and would have to be protected – that’s a massive difference.

    Neither will happen, unless Sekera has some kind of permanent physical issue after his surgery, and in that case, there’s LTIR.

    We’re just about to get our from under contract weight, and you want to add more buyouts?

    Also the expansion thing is way overblown, no date for Seattle has been set, the expansion rules could be different due to backlash around the league about Vegas’ unexpected early success, and if Russell is traded next summer, expansion a year or two down the road is much less a factor than if he can help the acquiring team.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: Do you use Chrome? Can you try using a different method? trying to figure this out

    Chrome works fine for me.

  33. russ99 says:

    Rondo:
    Wonder if Oilers are interested in Calvin De Haan.

    Yes please, but signing Benning and the inflated FA prices for D due to a smaller crop probably put that to bed.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    russ99: Yes please, but signing Benning and the inflated FA prices for D due to a smaller crop probably put that to bed.

    Russell at 4M for 3 more years also kills it. Ugh

  35. 36 percent body fat says:

    looking at that list of UFA, why did we give caggulia 1.5.?

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    36 percent body fat:
    looking at that list of UFA, why did we give caggulia 1.5.?

    Remains a mystery to me, too.

  37. OmJo says:

    PokeCheck:
    Nice to see Talbot projected to step things up with 3 goals next year.

    Infinity?

    With our winger depth we’ll need some extra help from the goaltenders…

    We’ll see. Still think there’s a goaltender there. He isn’t in as bad a shape as when Dubnyk left, IMO.

  38. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    36 percent body fat:
    looking at that list of UFA, why did we give caggulia 1.5.?

    Because we had a 5 year period where we couldn’t draft a player who could do a cross-over outside the first round, so we signed as many college kids as possible to fill out our prospect pool.

  39. Rondo says:

    Oilers one of the worst teams in the league as of last year.

    AHL team one of the worst teams in the AHL.

    Oilers in Cap problems.

    PC still has a job.

  40. Jaxon says:

    The other thing to consider when giving Bouchard, McLeod, Benson, Yamamoto, Maksimov, Safin, Samurokov NHL games is that if they play 10 games, and the expansion draft gets pushed back a year from the previously thought date, then they will need to be protected.
    To put it another way. Currently, anyone who played 10GP last season would need to be protected in the 2020 expansion draft. If it gets pushed back to 2021, then anyone who plays 10GP this season will need to be protected.

    So keeping them in junior would be pretty valuable.

    If I was a GM, I’d be pushing Bettman for some clarity on expansion timelines.

  41. Richard S.S. says:

    Seattle MUST have an NHL ready to go Arena for whatever next Season that might be. 100% ready before the Season starts, not “needing the finishing touches”. 2019-20 might be pushing it.

  42. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Strome has his QO.If he doesn’t like it, let him walk.

    That’s an easy decision to make sitting at your keyboard. In real life though, not so much. My apologies if you were being sarcastic.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    Rondo:
    Oilersone of the worst teams in the league as of last year.

    AHL team one of the worst teams in the AHL.

    Oilers in Cap problems.

    PC still has a job.

    I think it’s fair ball to call out Chia, but he’s done a remarkable job with the farm team. I can’t remember the last time I felt this optimistic about the farm team.

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: That’s an easy decision to make sitting at your keyboard. In real life though, not so much. My apologies if you were being sarcastic.

    Yeah, in real life, Chiarelli will be required to “do him a solid.”

  45. Rondo says:

    Regarding the Draft I wonder if Oilers were considering taking Kirill Marchenko over McLeod.

  46. JustWatt says:

    russ99: We’re just about to get our from under contract weight, and you want to add more buyouts?

    Came here to say this. That $3.6 million year is a huge deal breaker, that’s a decent second line winger’s salary gone to empty cap space. To buy out a guy who is still an acknowledged NHL defenseman. Russel isn’t going anywhere, he wants to play in Alberta and with the deal Calgary pulled off at the draft it seems extremely unlikely that they would consider taking him at any point during the life of the contract. Chia has made his LD bed and now he has to lay in it.

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Travis Yost wondering outloud how bad Faulk is defensively: https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

    Seems like me and a couple others aren’t the only ones to look at his RelTGF% and think “holy shit, and it’s been going on for 4 years!”

  48. judgedrude says:

    Concerning buyouts, I thought that a team could only have two at any one time.

    Please tell me I’m wrong. (Was this the old CBA?)

  49. Jaxon says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Seattle MUST have an NHL ready to go Arena for whatever next Season that might be.100% ready before the Season starts, not “needing the finishing touches”.2019-20 might be pushing it.

    I believe the current plan is expansion draft in June of 2020 for a 2020-2021 inaugural season. So they have just over 27 months to complete the arena.

    By the looks of things, everything is on schedule.

    Dec. 7, 2017
    “A Seattle ownership group has been authorized to file an application for an NHL expansion team that would begin play in the 2020-21 season, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said Thursday.”

    “We have agreed as a league to take and consider an expansion application and to let them run in the next few months a season ticket drive.”

    “We now have an interested ownership group, we have a commitment on an arena, and we have a market we now have to explore,” Deputy Commissioner Daly said.”

    Vegas was granted the right to do a ticket drive in Dec, 2014, but didn’t start taking applications until June of 2015. Seattle already did theirs in March and sold 25,000 season tickets in one hour capping season tickets at 32,000!! 1000 Canadians bought season tickets. Vegas needed two days to reach 5,000 and a month to reach 9,000.

    Apr 23
    If things proceed as planned with the environmental review and a Seattle Hockey Partners group run by billionaire David Bonderman and Hollywood film producer Jerry Bruckheimer pays the league a $650 million franchise fee, the new team would be officially approved by the fall.

    According to the draft EIS (Environmental Impact statement), OVG plans around-the clock construction seven days per week to meet that October 2020 opening date.

    May 28
    “There are a number of bases we have to touch, a lot of due diligence that has to be done, a lot of interaction with the prospective ownership group, David Bonderman’s group, and so we think we’re on target. Depending on how everything goes, it wouldn’t surprise me that there is a possibility that in the fall, early winter at the latest, that this could be addressed by the board.”

    It looks like they are planning for full approval this September right before the season starts so they can begin construction and complete the building in 24 months.

    Right now, everything looks on schedule and everyone seems pretty certain it will go through for a June 2020 Expansions Draft. And that would mean players who played 10 pro games last year would have to be protected. However, if expansion gets pushed back a year then it will be this year’s players who break the 10 game barrier that will also have to be protected.

  50. npanciroli says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wish Yost wasn’t such a dick because he is a smart dude and his articles are quite good. Same with Cullen.

  51. Jaxon says:

    judgedrude:
    Concerning buyouts, I thought that a team could only have two at any one time.

    Please tell me I’m wrong. (Was this the old CBA?)

    I may be wrong, but I believe you may be thinking of compliance buyouts during lockout/strike years which have no real ‘penalties’ equated with them. Normal buyouts have enough negatives that they don’t need to set limits on them as they become a real hindrance if you start to pile them up. They stay on the books for twice the buyout period and there is still some hit against the cap.

  52. Alpine says:

    npanciroli:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wish Yost wasn’t such a dick because he is a smart dude and his articles are quite good. Same with Cullen.

    Yost isn’t a dick at all?

  53. judgedrude says:

    Jaxon,

    Thanks Jason. Sometimes it’s good to be wrong.

    Looking through I think I was actually combining the idea of two compliance buyouts with the restriction on salary retention (which is 3)

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    judgedrude:
    Concerning buyouts, I thought that a team could only have two at any one time.

    Please tell me I’m wrong. (Was this the old CBA?)

    You might be thinking of retained salary transactions? I don’t think there’s a buyout limit.

  55. Oilman99 says:

    Jaxon: Yup. This. I think it will only get harder to unload Russell until they have to buy him out in the end anyway. If they can’t unload Lucic and they still need some cap space, then the buyout has to be Russell.

    There is no reason they can’t do the same thing they did with Fayne if Russell becomes unserviceable, and send him to the minors for a year or two.

  56. Lowetide says:

    VOR:

    So as I sit here reading reasonable expectations that strongly suggest the Oilers will fall flat on their faces this year I can’t help wondering if the pieces are all there but we just don’t know it yet. Are we racing up on a bright new dawn?

    In 1980-81, Edmonton’s rookies were Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson, Paul Coffey, Charlie Huddy and Andy Moog.

  57. Jaxon says:

    Oilman99: There is no reason they can’t do the same thing they did with Fayne if Russell becomes unserviceable, and send him to the minors for a year or two.

    Actually, there is a reason they can’t. a No Move Clause means no movement anywhere. Meaning he cannot be moved to the minors.

  58. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: In 1980-81, Edmonton’s rookies were Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson, Paul Coffey, Charlie Huddy and Andy Moog.

    Could the new Islanders possibly pull this off again (rookies and sophomores in their case, perhaps)?

  59. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q: Could the new Islanders possibly pull this off again (rookies and sophomores in their case, perhaps)?

    Ah. The sophomores in 1980-81 were Wayne Gretzky, Kevin Lowe, Mark Messier, Dave Lumley and Risto Siltanen. 🙂

  60. Alpine says:

    Could Riley Sheahan be an option? Seems like the Pens are still trying to keep him. Scoring/goal share numbers are all over the map. Good numbers across board from 2013-15, bad numbers from 15-17, returned to a decent normal after PIT traded for him.

  61. godot10 says:

    Oilman99: There is no reason they can’t do the same thing they did with Fayne if Russell becomes unserviceable, and send him to the minors for a year or two.

    What about “No-Movement-Clause” do you not understand?

  62. Wonder Llama says:

    LT: “These are my projections from late last week, they were met with universal applause and agreement.”

    Yes, that’s exactly how I remember it.

  63. VOR says:

    Lowetide: Ah. The sophomores in 1980-81 were Wayne Gretzky, Kevin Lowe, Mark Messier, Dave Lumley and Risto Siltanen.

    And on opening night of 1980 they looked collectively horrible, lost 7-4 to the Nords and the score really flattered the Oilers. There was no way any reasonable expectation analysis done Oct. 11 of 1980 would have led with “Last Night I Saw the Future of Hockey.” But those of us in the Coliseum that night did in fact see the future of hockey.

    I can remember walking back to my car to start the long drive back to Coal Valley thinking how good Gretzky would look with this Nordiques rookie, Michel Goulet. I can’t remember a single shift Kurri took. I do remember Anderson floating around the ice avoiding any physical contact. Coffey and Messier were complete screw ups with air between their ears. In fact other than Gretzky the best part of that game was watching the short, squat Finnish defenceman Siltanen. He might have needed a ladder to see over a fire hydrant but he was built like a tank, skated like the wind and that shot, OMG.

    7 months later they would be giant killers and the future would arrive.

  64. VOR says:

    Lowetide: In 1980-81, Edmonton’s rookies were Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson, Paul Coffey, Charlie Huddy and Andy Moog.

    Arguably the greatest crop of rookies in history.

    I am not suggesting that could happen again – but Gretzky supported by scoring by committee certainly could. In 1980 it was something like 17 players with 10 or more goals and several others close. I can see McDavid and scoring by committee taking the Oilers back to the playoffs.

  65. Lowetide says:

    VOR: And on opening night of 1980 they looked collectively horrible, lost 7-4 to the Nords and the score really flattered the Oilers. There was no way any reasonable expectation analysis done Oct. 11 of 1980 would have led with “Last Night I Saw the Future of Hockey.” But those of us in the Coliseum that night did in fact see the future of hockey.

    I can remember walking back to my car to start the long drive back to Coal Valley thinking how good Gretzky would look with this Nordiques rookie, Michel Goulet. I can’t remember a single shift Kurri took. I do remember Anderson floating around the ice avoiding any physical contact. Coffey and Messier were complete screw ups with air between their ears. In fact other than Gretzky the best part of that game was watching the short, squat Finnish defenceman Siltanen. He might have needed a ladder to see over a fire hydrant but he was built like a tank, skated like the wind and that shot, OMG.

    7 months later they would be giant killers and the future would arrive.

    I don’t think the Oilers have that kind of torque with the current roster and prospects. That team may have taken some time to find the way but two RW HHOFers in one year is impossible to replicate.

  66. Numenius says:

    judgedrude:
    Concerning buyouts, I thought that a team could only have two at any one time.

    Please tell me I’m wrong. (Was this the old CBA?)

    After the lockout, teams had 2 compliance buyouts. Maybe that’s what you’re thinking of?

  67. pts2pndr says:

    OmJo:
    How many seasons until Brossoit becomes the next Dubnyk?

    Only comparison is they both play goal!

  68. rickithebear says:

    Nurse – Larsson 1.84 evga/60
    This 1st comp pair has a top 5 HD anchor dman creating high end HD def even with Nurse going WALDO.

    Sekera – Russell 1.28 evga/60
    With Sekera healthy this is the 2nd best 2nd comp Dpair in the league.

    xxx – Benning

    With elite HD & evg LD available thier is 0 need for A 4.167M #3 Dman.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: Yup. This. I think it will only get harder to unload Russell until they have to buy him out in the end anyway. If they can’t unload Lucic and they still need some cap space, then the buyout has to be Russell.

    I agree – if they are unable to trade Russell prior to the expansion draft, they will need to buy him out as protecting him is not an option.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    puckwatcher:
    Thoughts on signing Mrazek. He seemed destined to be a solid starter at one point earlier in his career, definitely a better option than Noskinen

    Would have been an option, likely for in and around “Koskinen Money”, however, now that he have Koskinen signed, we cannot acquire another tender for the NHL.

  71. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear:
    Nurse – Larsson 1.84 evga/60
    This 1st comp pair has a top 5 HD anchor dman creating high end HD def even with Nurse going WALDO.

    Sekera – Russell 1.28 evga/60
    With Sekera healthy this is the 2nd best 2nd comp Dpair in the league.

    xxx – Benning

    With elite HD & evg LD available thier is 0 need for A 4.167M #3 Dman.

    Plug Fistric in that hole?

  72. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Travis Yost wondering outloud how bad Faulk is defensively: https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

    Seems like me and a couple others aren’t the only ones to look at his RelTGF% and think “holy shit, and it’s been going on for 4 years!”

    He does not like me writing him and complaining about miss using my theories.
    This case:
    Offensive Dmen are OFFENSIVE.
    Dpairs HD performance establish save% avg goalies perform around.

    I have posts on these that date back 9, 10, & 11 years.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    The leftorium still needs to be fixed.If they can acquire Faulk (or Dumba) for Klefbom, why not do it now.I’m not trying to run Oscar out of town, but we’re stuck with 2 NMC on the left side.I’ve read a few places where the search for the RHD is over now that Bouchard is here.If the plan is to keep things as-is until he is on the roster, we need a new plan.Ryan Ellis was picked 11th overall, and then spent another year in junior, followed by splitting 2 seasons between NSH and AHL before he was even a full-time NHL’er.I’d like to see Bouchard take a similar path if he can turn into Ryan Ellis when he’s done.Russel playing the left side for a whole year would help his performance, and it would make Bouchard have to earn his spot.It’s like they are saving a spot for him if they don’t get a RHD now.Competition for jobs is a good thing!!

    There is a massive difference between Faulk and Dumba as regards to value.

    I would explore a Klefbom for Dumba trade but not in any way a Faulk trade. Faulk isn’t very good any more and is a UFA shortly.

    A Klefbom/Dumba deal has some legs although Dumba will be expensive soon and I’m remiss to trade Klefbom’s contract and cap hit.

  74. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: He does not like me writing him and complaining about miss using my theories.
    This case:
    Offensive Dmen are OFFENSIVE.
    Dpairs HD performance establish save% avg goalies perform around.

    I have posts on these that date back 9, 10, & 11 years.

    Has anybody peer reviewed your databases?

    Id love to look at them. I wouldnt use him, I would just like to see how it compares to the public databases and some of Sportloqiqs which I have seen for a few players on the Blues and Yotes.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    With all the talent set loose, why did we overpay Caggula again?

    Ditto Strome, now that the QO is in and with Peter’s track record, his agent is looking for more than that if he’s any kind of agent.

    Who has become available (due to not receiving a QO) that would be able to replace Strome as a solid 3C with plus PK ability and improving in all aspects?

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99: Neither will happen, unless Sekera has some kind of permanent physical issue after his surgery, and in that case, there’s LTIR.

    We’re just about to get our from under contract weight, and you want to add more buyouts?

    Also the expansion thing is way overblown, no date for Seattle has been set, the expansion rules could be different due to backlash around the league about Vegas’ unexpected early success,and if Russell is traded next summer, expansion a year or two down the road is much less a factor than if he can help the acquiring team.

    I didn’t say I wanted to buy out either – I was responding to LTs post about potentially buying out Sekera.

    No, the expansion thing is NOT over blow – in fact, I hope our GM is taking it very seriously.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    judgedrude:
    Concerning buyouts, I thought that a team could only have two at any one time.

    Please tell me I’m wrong. (Was this the old CBA?)

    I don’t have time to research and confirm right now but I think you are might thinking of retained salary and a team can only retain salaries of 3 former players at once.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: There is no reason they can’t do the same thing they did with Fayne if Russell becomes unserviceable, and send him to the minors for a year or two.

    Yes, there is – its his NMC – can’t send him to the minors without his consent.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:

    Could have explained it to him without the attitude and condensation like a few others have.

    Unnecessary!

  80. frjohnk says:

    Speaking of buyouts, I sure hope that McDavid fellow works out for us.

    Buying him out is not much of an option. If he were to be bought out, Oilers would only save $9.3M of the $100M as most of the contract is signing bonuses.

  81. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Who has become available (due to not receiving a QO) that would be able to replace Strome as a solid 3C with plus PK ability and improving in all aspects?

    Riley Sheahan

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Would much rather have Strome – more offensive potential and he’s just better. All Strome’s relative measures are better than Sheahan’s (all negative for Sheahan).

  83. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Would much rather have Strome – more offensive potential and he’s just better.All Strome’s relative measures are better than Sheahan’s (all negative for Sheahan).

    Yup. I would also add that Strome is younger and he doesnt have a recent 2 goals in 80 game statline hanging around either.

  84. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is a massive difference between Faulk and Dumba as regards to value.

    I would explore a Klefbom for Dumba trade but not in any way a Faulk trade. Faulk isn’t very good any more and is a UFA shortly.

    A Klefbom/Dumba deal has some legs although Dumba will be expensive soon and I’m remiss to trade Klefbom’s contract and cap hit.

    You’re right about their value beind different for sure. But either one can be a top 4 on this roster and QB the powerplay. I’m not letting Yost’s article about Faulk drop his value in my mind. If you look at the table, Faulk’s save percentage compared to his team’s percentage is better than Erik Karlson’s and Chris Letang’s. I’d rather have Faulk on the ice than Benning, Larsson, or Russell on the right side if we need a goal. It’s that simple.

  85. pts2pndr says:

    russ99:
    With all the talent set loose, why did we overpay Caggula again?

    Ditto Strome, now that the QO is in and with Peter’s track record, his agent is looking for more than that if he’s any kind of agent.

    Re: Caggula ( the coach likes him ) he doesn’t score enough to play top two lines and isn’t defensively aware enough to play bottom two lines at the nhl level.
    Strome at the right price can fill the third line center role and has shown to be a reasonably good penalty killer. Optiks of letting Strome walk would not be good! Those are my thoughts but I have no idea how the organization sees either player!

  86. pts2pndr says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: You’re right about their value beind different for sure.But either one can be a top 4 on this roster and QB the powerplay.I’m not letting Yost’s article about Faulk drop his value in my mind.If you look at the table, Faulk’s save percentage compared to his team’s percentage is better than Erik Karlson’s and Chris Letang’s.I’d rather have Faulk on the ice than Benning, Larsson, or Russell on the right side if we need a goal.It’s that simple.

    Is that scored against you? If you have been following the site for awhile there has been much discussion on this very topic last year with the majority of posters feeling Benning is the better player on a better contract and younger! The math shows Benning to be the better player.

  87. rickithebear says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Plug Fistric in that hole?

    Per Natural stat trick
    Fistric
    11-12 Dallas
    Gologoski. 213:46 1.12 evga/60
    Larsen 162:42. 1.48
    Daley 237:07 1.52

    12-13 EDM
    Potter 99:43 0.60 evga/60
    Whitney 89:16 2.02
    Petry 62:21 0.96

    13-14 ANA
    Allen 134:31 0.45 evga/60
    Vatanen 124:31. 2.34
    Lindholm 102:01 2.89

    He would have made our ga such that 2gf wins a lot of games.

    Oh wait GA are not the issue.
    We need more offence!

    Full seasons since 05-06
    16-17 103 pt; 247gf (3.01); 212ga (2.59)
    05-06 95pt; 256gf (3.12); 251ga (3.06) 8th in a 2.95 Goal season
    —————————————————-
    07-08 88pt; 235gf (2.87); 251ga (3.06)
    08-09 85pt; 234gf (2.85); 248ga (3.02)
    17-18 78pt 234gf (2.85); 263ga (3.21)
    11-12 74pt 212gf(2.59); 239ga (2.91)
    06-07 71pt 195gf (2.38); 248ga (3.02)
    15-16 70pt 203gf (2.48); 245ga (2.99)
    13-14 67pt 203gf (2.48); 270ga (3.29)
    10-11 62pt 193gf (2.35): 269ga (3.28)
    9-10 62pt 214gf (2.61); 284ga (3.46)
    14-15 62pt 198gf (2.41); 283ga (3.45)

    I want HD defence that gets us 212ga and we are in or competing for playoffs in 9 of the 12 seasons.
    Rather than the d you are comfortable with.

    Fistric, Bellimore, Martin, Orpik, Larsson, healthy Sekera, Cole, DeHaan,
    Mcnabb, Schmidt, Stoner, Methot, TVR, Sbisa, C. Miller, Engelland, Garrison.
    Heck yeah!

    Playoffs!
    I am talking bout Playoffs.
    Your d?
    Heck No!

  88. RonnieB says:

    pts2pndr: Re: Caggula ( the coach likes him ) he doesn’t score enough to play top two lines and isn’t defensively aware enough to play bottom two lines at the nhl level.
    Strome at the right price can fill the third line center role and has shown to be a reasonably good penalty killer. Optiks of letting Strome walk would not be good! Those are my thoughts but I have no idea how the organization sees either player!

    I’m sure somebody will correct me if i’m wrong, but now that the Oilers have given Strome a QO i don’t think they are able to just let him walk. The ball is in Strome’s court until (i think) July 5th, by which time Strome has 1 of 3 options. He can accept the QO; he can negotiate a better/different deal with the Oilers; he can file for salary arbitration. Negotiations can continue until the arbitrator’s decision is rendered. The Oilers can only walk away if the arbitrator’s award is above a specified AAV, which i heard/saw somewhere is around $4.25 million for the upcoming season.

    I believe the above is also the explanation why so many clubs are not issuing QOs to some players; this allows the player to become a UFA but their club can continue to negotiate with them without risking an arbitration award, albeit in a competitive market.

  89. Durag says:

    I would be absolutely thrilled with any two of Duclair, Rieder, Smith-Pelley and Czarnik. Create some damned competition for those wing spots!

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear: He does not like me writing him and complaining about miss using my theories.
    This case:
    Offensive Dmen are OFFENSIVE.
    Dpairs HD performance establish save% avg goalies perform around.

    I have posts on these that date back 9, 10, & 11 years.

    No one is allowed to think about hockey unless they dig up the package you mailed yourself and buried under your porch.

    Got it.

    No one is stealing your ideas.

    No one really understands your ideas. Your disgraphia makes it very hard to understand what your write.

    They dismiss you because you come off as a crank.

  91. LMHF#1 says:

    russ99:
    With all the talent set loose, why did we overpay Caggula again?

    Ditto Strome, now that the QO is in and with Peter’s track record, his agent is looking for more than that if he’s any kind of agent.

    This happens every year. The refrains of “No one available” or “but he isn’t one of ours” will be used just like every other year. Such complete and total BS.

    You could run your core + mercs every year and have excellent, cap-flexible teams. I realize I’m an extremist on this, but so what, it’s true!

  92. leadfarmer says:

    “Orpik is the best Ricki defenseman in the playoffs”. One day later he gets bought out. This is one of my favorite moments of the summer so far.

    Now Orpik did play fairly well in the playoffs but it just shows how far the league is from Rickis theories. This final was the worst HD defense matchups in the last 10 year with a mid team (Vegas) and a bottom 5 HD team ( Washington)

    Vegas is so happy with those Ricki D that they tried to trade them for Karlsson this season

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Has anybody peer reviewed your databases?

    Id love to look at them.I wouldnt use him, I would just like to see how it compares to the public databases and some of Sportloqiqs which I have seen for a few players on the Blues and Yotes.

    Mr. The Bear should sue Sportslogiq for thinking about tracking hockey players

  94. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    pts2pndr: Is that scored against you? If you have been following the site for awhile there has been much discussion on this very topic last year with the majority of posters feeling Benning is the better player on a better contract and younger! The math shows Benning to be the better player.

    Benning is on a “show me” contract now, so he’s definitely younger and cheaper, although Faulk is only 26. Faulk can probably be had, but we need to move a D-man out before we add anyone. Otherwise, we’re paying at least 1.9M for our 7th defenceman (Benning),with Russell on his weak side for 4M for 3 more years. I like Benning fine, but this D needs to be re-jigged. It doesn’t need to be Faulk, but a nice clapper from the point woukd be nice if we get a RHD. And Klef is the only moveable LHD we’ll get anything for in a trade.

  95. N64 says:

    frjohnk:
    Speaking of buyouts, I sure hope that McDavid fellow works out for us.

    Buying him out is not much of an option.If he were to be bought out, Oilers would only save $9.3M of the $100M as most of the contract is signing bonuses.

    ~ Good point. I guess we are stuck with that guy then ~

  96. leadfarmer says:

    JT Miller signs 5 years 5.25 AAV
    Decent player but how on earth do they keep Kutcherov Point Sergachev

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: You’re right about their value beind different for sure.But either one can be a top 4 on this roster and QB the powerplay.I’m not letting Yost’s article about Faulk drop his value in my mind.If you look at the table, Faulk’s save percentage compared to his team’s percentage is better than Erik Karlson’s and Chris Letang’s.I’d rather have Faulk on the ice than Benning, Larsson, or Russell on the right side if we need a goal.It’s that simple.

    From watching Faulk (to be honest, maybe 4 times this past season), he just isn’t very good at even strength and is a tire fire in his own zone. I post that, If we acquire, Faulk, we will be needing that goal you mention more often.

    Also, you last statement is not baked up with facts with respect to Benning at least. Bennings P/60 and P1/60 are better than Faulk’s for each of the last two seasons.

    Faulk is no longer productive at evens, he’s a PP specialist.

  98. OilClog says:

    rickithebear:
    Nurse – Larsson 1.84 evga/60
    This 1st comp pair has a top 5 HD anchor dman creating high end HD def even with Nurse going WALDO.

    Sekera – Russell 1.28 evga/60
    With Sekera healthy this is the 2nd best 2nd comp Dpair in the league.

    xxx – Benning

    With elite HD & evg LD available thier is 0 need for A 4.167M #3 Dman.

    This may be the morphine talking, you lost the room after Benning.

    Zero need sir? Zero need? There’s zero need for such blatant ignorance in a house of hockey!

    Oscar Klefbom is a better and more valueable hockey commodity then either a healthy Sekera or Russell and stating there’s zero need for a better player because of a mish mash of stats over the last 1000days..

    1000 days ago Oilers had too many fucking wingers so we fired them for box D and watched them win mvp’s in other towns! Burn the ricki box defender!

    Good day sir!

  99. Lowetide says:

    I spoke to Go Daddy and have flushed my cache. It’s not as much fun as it sounds. That said, it may mean everyone can see the blog fine now. If you know someone who can’t see today’s post, ask them to sign in using yesterday’s and it should work.

  100. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Travis Yost wondering outloud how bad Faulk is defensively: https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

    Seems like me and a couple others aren’t the only ones to look at his RelTGF% and think “holy shit, and it’s been going on for 4 years!”

    I turst “urinalysis” haha…and wouldnt take the risk…….but there is something not quite right with what Yost is saying.

    “Every non-goal-based measure takes a bit of a liking to Faulk, which is also true of a number of other Carolina skaters. For example, the Hurricanes have outshot their opponents 7,551 to 6,680 (+871, or 53 per cent) over that same stretch with Faulk on the ice. The same is true for similar measures, be it scoring chances, dangerous shot attempts, or expected goals.”

    Faulk sounds good so far.

    Then Yost states that Faulk is better than Ristolainen……and we like Ristolainen.

    “His 44 per cent goal percentage is the second-worst of any regular defender in the league, beating Buffalo’s Risotlainen (41 per cent), and driven in large part by leaky defensive zone play.”

    Then Yost puts him on a list of similar players that inlcudes Byfuilin, Giordano, Slavin, Petry, Eric Karlsson, Letang etc………saying hes the worst of these……..thats a pretty good list to be the worst of.

    Then Yost acknowleges that “Carolina’s had bad goaltending for years……….. And that .. “we know that defenders appear to have very little control over the save percentages their team realizes”

    I dont see anywhere where Yost brings Quality of Competion into the arguement…….and If you are playing big minutes against elites on a team with the worst goaltending in the leaque..(which Faulk was doing for several years)..the results are usually pretty predicatable.

    TO BE CLEAR…..Ive seen some of your analysis and it definitely scared me away from Faulk. Im not sure Yosts version has the same impact.

  101. Wilde says:

    leadfarmer:
    JT Miller signs 5 years 5.25 AAV
    Decent player but how on earth do they keep Kutcherov Point Sergachev

    Yeah Gourde, Point, Kucherov, McDonagh all are up next summer, they get 6.7 off the books with Coburn and Girardi but I’m still not sure if I’d rather have Miller over any of those four.

  102. jm363561 says:

    VOR

    So as I sit here reading reasonable expectations that strongly suggest the Oilers will fall flat on their faces this year I can’t help wondering if the pieces are all there but we just don’t know it yet. Are we racing up on a bright new dawn?

    Good morning from Manila. The problem with the site does not seem to have been resolved – after logging on I seem to have accessed a mirror site .. HighTide .. Vor, is that really you?😀

    Great two part analysis of Matt Benning on ON. Good signing!

  103. Jaxon says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Plug Fistric in that hole?

    Dirtiest comment ever?

  104. Jaxon says:

    Wonder Llama:
    LT: “These are my projections from late last week, they were met with universal applause and agreement.”

    Yes, that’s exactly how I remember it.

    Sounds like Trump’s inauguration.

  105. Andy Dufresne says:

    Durag:
    I would be absolutely thrilled with any two of Duclair, Rieder, Smith-Pelley and Czarnik. Create some damned competition for those wing spots!

    Im not a fan of Cagullia and all of these guys seem Cagullia like in one form or another.

  106. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    I spoke to Go Daddy and have flushed my cache. It’s not as much fun as it sounds. That said, it may mean everyone can see the blog fine now. If you know someone who can’t see today’s post, ask them to sign in using yesterday’s and it should work.

    “Flushed My Cache”…Yo Daddy! ……we all know how painful that can be……

  107. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No one is allowed to think about hockey unless they dig up the package you mailed yourself and buried under your porch.

    Got it.

    No one is stealing your ideas.

    No one really understands your ideas. Your disgraphia makes it very hard to understand what your write.

    They dismiss you because you come off as a crank.

    “Open Porch” is the future.

  108. Wilde says:

    Wilde,

    Then again they’re in on Karlsson and Tavares so they’ve probably got a lot of deals on the shelf

  109. pts2pndr says:

    Jaxon:
    The other thing to consider when giving Bouchard, McLeod, Benson, Yamamoto, Maksimov, Safin, Samurokov NHL games is that if they play 10 games, and the expansion draft gets pushed back a year from the previously thought date, then they will need to be protected.
    To put it another way. Currently, anyone who played 10GP last season would need to be protected in the 2020 expansion draft. If it gets pushed back to 2021, then anyone who plays 10GP this season will need to be protected.

    So keeping them in junior would be pretty valuable.

    If I was a GM, I’d be pushing Bettman for some clarity on expansion timelines.

    The bottom line is the Oilers will probably lose a good young prospect or NHL player! To sewer your developement program of a number of players if you really think about it makes little sense! Developementaly delay 4 or more players with other options available makes little sense in the long term. The team just has to assure the best players are protected unlike Florida.

  110. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree – if they are unable to trade Russell prior to the expansion draft, they will need to buy him out as protecting him is not an option.

    He could agree to waive. And probably would if his performance drops off by then.

  111. JimmyV1965 says:

    I wonder if Chia is thinking about actually trading Talbot? I know a lot of the stuff you read is mostly worthless, but I keep reading his name on different websites. Could you possibly trade him and then pick up someone like Halak or Reimer and start the season with two 1B goalies? Would reduce the cap for sure.

  112. VOR says:

    frjohnk: Has anybody peer reviewed your databases?

    Id love to look at them.I wouldnt use him, I would just like to see how it compares to the public databases and some of Sportloqiqs which I have seen for a few players on the Blues and Yotes.

    I’d like to lend my support to the idea of having one’s work peer reviewed.

    I am moving toward/working on making all of my data, algorithms, and modelling public. I have started and stopped this project a dozen times. This time I am fully committed.

    Part of my plan is a series of papers each written with a different collaborator for The Journal of Sports Science. I am building a website to host the rest and a blog to talk about all of it. The articles are meant to be free.

    My collaborators have of course gone through the data in detail. And now it is being rigorously peer reviewed. The peer reviewers aren’t being kind. In fact they have been shredding me. It is part of what put me in a bad mood.

    It has still been well worth it. It has forced me to rethink, double check, and enrich my theories. But most of all it pointed out much I needed to improve my communication skills and tools. Presentation matters.

    Even though it isn’t going well on any front just finally starting work on it is tremendously validating.

  113. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer:
    JT Miller signs 5 years 5.25 AAV
    Decent player but how on earth do they keep Kutcherov Point Sergachev

    Possibly use a trade of Johnson for relief?

  114. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think the Oilers have that kind of torque with the current roster and prospects. That team may have taken some time to find the way but two RW HHOFers in one year is impossible to replicate.

    So you’re saying that this Version of the Oilers wont be able to replicate the team designated at NHL Centennial Celebrations as the ” Best Team of All Time”?!?!…….is that urinalysis? 🙂

  115. Andy Dufresne says:

    VOR: I’d like to lend my support to the idea of having one’s work peer reviewed.

    I am moving toward/working on making all of my data, algorithms, and modelling public. I have started and stopped this project a dozen times. This time I am fully committed.

    Part of my plan is a series of papers each written with a different collaborator for The Journal of Sports Science. I am building a website to host the rest and a blog to talk about all of it. The articles are meant to be free.

    My collaborators have of course gone through the data in detail. And now it is being rigorously peer reviewed. The peer reviewers aren’t being kind. In fact they have been shredding me. It is part of what put me in a bad mood.

    It has still been well worth it. It has forced me to rethink, double check, and enrich my theories. But most of all it pointed out much I needed to improve my communication skills and tools. Presentation matters.

    Even though it isn’t going well on any front just finally starting work on it is tremendously validating.

    If you ask nicely, perhaps Ricki would pier review it for you. He could help with the communication skills, tools and presentation part too. 🙂

    #OpenPorchIsTheFuture

    I hope it all pays off for you. Keep Calm and Carry On.

  116. leadfarmer says:

    Professor Q: Possibly use a trade of Johnson for relief?

    Well they will need to do that regardless of the Miller signing

  117. Richard S.S. says:

    If Faulk is seen as an offensive D, he’s a good choice, as they usually function best with a very good stay-at-home D. He’ll score well and won’t show up as a defensive liability.
    If Faulk is seen as a two-way D, he’s a decent choice with a good defensive partner. He’ll score well, but defend poorly.
    If Faulk is seen as as defensive D, he’s usually partnered with a more offensive partner. They’ll score well but bleed goals profusely. He’ll show up as a defensive liability.

    This is basically what Yost’s article says, “Let the buyer beware”.

  118. Munny says:

    JustWatt: Came here to say this. That $3.6 million year is a huge deal breaker, that’s a decent second line winger’s salary gone to empty cap space.

    leadfarmer: JT Miller signs 5 years 5.25 AAV

    I just thought these two posts should be introduced to each other. 😉

  119. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide,

    I used google and an iPad and this site worked fine since I went to this site at 0840-ish.

  120. Munny says:

    newkidpopcan:
    Had lunch today at a nice waterfront restaurant in Bellagio, Italy on Lake Como. Zack Kassian was at the table next to us. The group was talking about the danger of being traded in the next week. They weren’t specifically talking about Kass just that a lot of players get moved at this time of the year. Interesting.

    Lowetide’s tentacles reach far and wide!

    And some people went to Croatia instead, the fools. 😉

  121. Munny says:

    The case against Justin Faulk is overstated.

    You can’t ask for a better example of a player’s stats being affected by poor goaltending. That’s why we don’t focus on one stat like GF-GA. And precisely why we ask questions like do the underlying Corsi, Fenwick, Shot and HDSC stats reflect the goal stats? In Faulk’s case, ALL the underlying stats are against the goal trend. And the same is true for most of his teammates.

  122. frjohnk says:

    VOR: I’d like to lend my support to the idea of having one’s work peer reviewed.

    I am moving toward/working on making all of my data, algorithms, and modelling public. I have started and stopped this project a dozen times. This time I am fully committed.

    Part of my plan is a series of papers each written with a different collaborator for The Journal of Sports Science. I am building a website to host the rest and a blog to talk about all of it. The articles are meant to be free.

    My collaborators have of course gone through the data in detail. And now it is being rigorously peer reviewed. The peer reviewers aren’t being kind. In fact they have been shredding me. It is part of what put me in a bad mood.

    It has still been well worth it. It has forced me to rethink, double check, and enrich my theories. But most of all it pointed out much I needed to improve my communication skills and tools. Presentation matters.

    Even though it isn’t going well on any front just finally starting work on it is tremendously validating.

    Fascinating. Judging by your posts on here, I have no doubt you will knock it out of the park.

  123. pts2pndr says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: Benning is on a “show me” contract now, so he’s definitely younger and cheaper, although Faulk is only 26.Faulk can probably be had, but we need to move a D-man out before we add anyone.Otherwise, we’re paying at least 1.9M for our 7th defenceman (Benning),with Russell on his weak side for 4M for 3 more years. I like Benning fine, but this D needs to be re-jigged.It doesn’t need to be Faulk, but a nice clapper from the point woukd be nice if we get a RHD.And Klef is the only moveable LHD we’ll get anything for in a trade.

    I agree the D needs to be reworked. I believe that we would be wise to go with what we have this year, bite the bullet so to speak. This gives us a chance to evaluate a couple of internal solutions as well as it gives Berglund Bear and Benning a chance to show their stuff. I would be onboard for a short term cheap ufa fix if one popped up! Any change that puts us in a worsened cap position and or bleeds talent has to be avoided if we expect to challenge for a championship in the forseeable future!

  124. Oilman99 says:

    Jaxon: Actually, there is a reason they can’t. a No Move Clause means no movement anywhere. Meaning he cannot be moved to the minors.

    If the option is sit in the stands or go to the minors what do you think his response will be. Nothing is written in stone.

  125. Oilman99 says:

    godot10: What about “No-Movement-Clause” do you not understand?

    If the guy is struggling , there is reason to think he won’t agree to go to the minors, rather than rot in the stands wise guy.

  126. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, there is – its his NMC – can’t send him to the minors without his consent.

    Key words…without his consent. Any player with any pride would rather go to the minors and earn his salary rather than sit in the stands.

  127. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think the Oilers have that kind of torque with the current roster and prospects. That team may have taken some time to find the way but two RW HHOFers in one year is impossible to replicate.

    Yamamoto & Puljujarvi. BAM! We’re back.

  128. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No one is allowed to think about hockey unless they dig up the package you mailed yourself and buried under your porch.

    Got it.

    No one is stealing your ideas.

    No one really understands your ideas. Your disgraphia makes it very hard to understand what your write.

    They dismiss you because you come off as a crank.

    +1. Read some of the posts and never have a clear idea of what is being said.

  129. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Strome is fine at the right cap hit. Sheehan isn’t much different than Strome.

    Why do so many Oilers fans dislike their own players?

    We’ve seen when other players we covet come and fail. We’ve seen them leave and be normal NHL players.

    Hockey is a team game, most players don’t make a difference on their own.

    I’m happy there are new coaches. Get the most from what you have. There are few magic bullets. Especially UFA bullets. More like Trojan horses.

  130. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    The case against Justin Faulk is overstated.

    You can’t ask for a better example of a player’s stats being affected by poor goaltending.
    That’s why we don’t focus on one stat like GF-GA.And precisely why we ask questions like do the underlying Corsi, Fenwick, Shot and HDSC stats reflect the goal stats?In Faulk’s case, ALL the underlying stats are against the goal trend. And the same is true for most of his teammates.

    Whenever I post about Faulk it’s always in the context of his team mates.

    They all play in front of the same goalies.

    The SV% when he is on the ice is, by far, much worse than when he’s off the ice.

    Yost’s post showed this too, but in reading the replies here most people missed that.

    His results are soo bad that fancystats people who will scream “Dmen can’t affect SV%!!” Stop and think “WTF” ? Like Yost did.

    Unless they change goalies whenever Faulk leaves the ice your dismissal I saying “You can’t ask for a better example of a player’s stats being affected by poor goaltending” holds no water.

    The opposition score at an extremely high rates vis a vis the shot metric *compared* to his team mates.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The crazy thing about all this is that Cam Ward might not be as awful as everyone thinks.

  132. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    The crazy thing about all this is that Cam Ward might not be as awful as everyone thinks.

    I don’t think so. It’s not like he was Mike Smith and played for a terrible team and had great stretches of goaltending in between his yearly injuries. He’s had only to battle whatever has been left of Eddie Lack after his concussions and Scott Darling who lost all confidence last year. If he’s had decent competition he probably would have lost his job a few years ago

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Key words…without his consent. Any player with any pride would rather go to the minors and earn his salary rather than sit in the stands.

    I don’t agree.

  134. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Whenever I post about Faulk it’s always in the context of his team mates.

    They all play in front of the same goalies.

    The SV% when he is on the ice is, by far, much worse than when he’s off the ice.

    Yost’s post showed this too, but in reading the replies here most people missed that.

    His results are soo bad that fancystats people who will scream “Dmen can’t affect SV%!!” Stop and think “WTF” ? Like Yost did.

    Unless they change goalies whenever Faulk leaves the ice your dismissal I saying “You can’t ask for a better example of a player’s stats being affected by poor goaltending” holds no water.

    The opposition score at an extremely high rates vis a vis the shot metric *compared* to his team mates.

    I’ve seen Faulk play a fair bit but that last game against the Oil he was beyond awful. He was a frickin tire fire. I’m not defending him, but he simply can’t play that bad for his next team. He was totally disengaged and that’s putting it mildly. So was Darling. Maybe one of the worst goaltending performances I’ve witnessed in years. Faulk was playing like someone that didn’t want to be there, which says something about his pride. But maybe he was Carolina’s version of Justin Schultz last year.

  135. Wilde says:

    @EDMprospectwatch has a shift-by-shift video of Evan Bouchard up – these are the best types of videos to really get to know a player’s game

  136. slopitch says:

    Ya LT to confirm, I have to login to see comments.

    I’ve been thinking about the Oilers window of contention alot the last week or so. I think it begins when they can add 2-3 rel pos forwards and 1 top 4 RHD. If they get lucky most of those pieces are in the system and JP, Yamo and Bouchard will all arrive by 2020. Unfortunately 1 will prob falter of those 3. Leaving 1-2 more. With no cap space, and it being unadvisable for teams like Edmonton and Winnipeg to trade 1sts (we don’t have the Panarin or Kovalchuk free agents lining up to play here) it’s no small task. But this team has 29/97/93, that’s the hard part. So step up and win a trade? As much as it scares me (Chai’s trading history lordy) it’s gonna be the play. Pittsburgh was able to add enough wingers. It’s doable.

  137. OilSlickster says:

    Jaxon,

    hahaha ..

  138. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t think Faulk is the second coming. I think he fell off the Yandle tree, to a large degree.

    However I’d like to see him on another team before I draw any conclusions with regard to how much he is contributing to his on ice SV percentage. A control group as it were.

    It seems strange that he in particular has this remarkable ability and to the degree that he can outright win the HD battle (not to mention the rest of the underlying) and yet have such an awful GF percentage.

    That needs to be explained more fully than, “he’s affecting SV percentage.”

    JMHO.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sign:

    Dyalan DeMelo
    Austin Czarnik
    Kyle Broadizk

    Trade:

    Kris Russell for Josh Leivo

    Trade 2019 1st rounder plus Caleb Jones for Ryan Pulock

    Nuge/McDavid/Rattie
    Leivo/Drai/Puljijarvi
    Lucic/Strome/Aberg
    Khaira/Czarnick/Kassian

    Brodziak/Caggulia

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Pulock
    Sekera/Benning

    DeMelo

    Talbot
    Koskinen

  140. stephen sheps says:

    Also still having issues viewing all the comments without logging in, but like yesterday it’s only a mobile issue.

  141. Mr DeBakey says:

    stephen sheps:
    Also still having issues viewing all the comments without logging in, but like yesterday it’s only a mobile issue.

    Here on the beautiful outskirts of E-Town, its home computer too!

  142. Mr DeBakey says:

    How about this sportsfans:
    June 30 – Caggiula and a 2nd to Carolina for Faulk
    July 2 – Lucic [$1,000,000 retained] to Carolina for Foegele and a 4th

  143. hags9k says:

    VOR,

    That’s the type of post I can really get behind. Thanks VOR!

    GOILERS!!!

  144. Primetime says:

    Oilman99: Key words…without his consent. Any player with any pride would rather go to the minors and earn his salary rather than sit in the stands.

    The reason why he wanted a NMC is that he only wanted to be in Alberta for family reasons. Chia caved and he has exactly what he and his family wanted/needed.

    Unless the Oilers get a minor league team in Alberta, I’m sure he would be content to collect $4 million a year eating popcorn and being close to his family.

  145. Primetime says:

    DBO:
    Reider at 2 X $2.0 mill
    Trade for Faulk (Jones and pick unles you can get them to take Sekera or Russell, and some magic beans)
    Move Benning for Burokovsky from Washington, who needs to shed salary

    Chris Johnston from Sportsnet was on Stauffers show the other day. Bob asked what he thought Reider would get on a contract. He had no insider information, but his initial guess was $4 million x 4.
    If that’s the case, the Oilers are definitely not in the game…not sure what team would do that either…

  146. 36 percent body fat says:

    so with all these decent winger ufa, tell me why Caggulia was signed, and why he was signed for more than 1M

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca