Who’ll Stop the Rain

In the late summer of 2016, Travis Yost made an appearance on the Lowdown. After an especially awful food take, Yost said “the thing about this Oilers team is they have McDavid and that combined with goaltending might get you into the playoffs.” It happened just that way. Too simplistic of course, but if these Edmonton Oilers stay healthy and they can duplicate Talbot’s performance of two years ago, music will once again fill the streets of good old our town.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

PROBLEMO

I changed over to HTTPS the other day and it seems to have knocked the universe a little to the left. If you’re reading this and can’t find the comments, please log in and all shall be revealed. You may have to sign in on all of your electronics that you use to get here. I didn’t anticipate this problem, but we are here. If you know someone that can’t see the new posts or comments please pass along they need to log in. Apologies for the inconvenience. I can fix 8-tracks, but this is a little beyond me.

I’m not certain Talbot will be on the team next summer. If he has a strong season the next contract Talbot signs will be too rich for the Oilers. If he struggles, Edmonton moves on like a bullet leaves a gun (thanks, Tom Waits).

  • Cam Talbot Pre All-Star: 39gp, 3.14 .901
  • Cam Talbot Post All-Star: 28gp, 2.88 .916
  • Hockey-Reference

Beginning on March 1, through the end of the season, Talbot had a .920 save percentage. I believe it’s prudent for Peter Chiarelli to hold back on signing Talbot now, but also believe it likely means he’ll be in another city this time next year.

Although Mark Seidel’s grade is higher than others, this is the kind of verbal Edmonton’s scouts are seeing in the week after the draft. As I read more on Kesselring, the more intriguing he gets. You don’t have to be famous on draft day, just 10 years after. I count the 2017 and 2018 drafts as good arrows and the 2016 edition is trending well save for portions of the third round. The pipeline is more substantial.

PROJECTED PARED ROSTER

  • Check my math, but we’re looking at adding three forwards and one defenseman for about $4 million. Why? You need some room and Jesse Puljujarvi’s bonus, while unlikely, could stretch out to $3.425 million at the max.
  • I can see the Oilers running with fewer than 23 roster players this season.
  • You could go 12-6-2 at home, maybe add a rover for the road trips. I’m not kidding. This is tight. I think we’ll see a trade, because otherwise it’s madness.
  • Bob Stauffer tweeted about Jason Chimera yesterday, that’s the kind of option the Oilers will be looking at for 12F-14F. I hope they have room for Austin Czarnik.
  • I think Kailer Yamamoto has an excellent chance to make this team.
  • It feels like the Oilers have something in their back pocket, a Lucic plus 2019 first-round pick for

RYAN MCLEOD

  • Corey Pronman: McLeod gains the zone as well as anyone due to his speed, skill and size. Too often though, once inside the zone, he can be passive, not looking to make quick plays to net and preferring to be stationary.  (The Athletic)
  • Scott Wheeler: He knew the Oilers might be an option after a strong combine interview, when he said they “just clicked.” (The Athletic)
  • Red Line Report: Skating is the major strength of his game. Smooth, powerful stride and a deceptive change of gear he uses to beat defenders. Too many nights seemed content to take a back seat and play a secondary role.
  • McKeens: Our scouts believe that Ryan had more skill in his game now than Michael did in his draft year.
  • International Scouting Services: Offensively, can be forced to outside too often. A safe, checking forward at the NHL level with upside to play on a scoring line.
  • HockeyProspect.com: McLeod is a playmaking centre with strong skating abilities. Ryan utilizes his fluid skating abilities and good speed to create offensively.

CHIARELLI’S BACK PAGES

One of the areas we should look at for possible value contracts in the free-agent market is Boston’s procurement list during the Chiarelli years. He would have knowledge of them, and vice versa, perhaps there is a fit. Here are a few names.

  • RC Austin Czarnik. I wrote about him in April at The Athletic, that may be important because if he does sign there may be media trumpeting his name as someone they uncovered. I don’t care who gets credit but don’t want to be accused of not giving credit. If anyone in the Edmonton media wrote about him before April 6 (article above), please let me know.
  • LC Joe Colborne. Injuries have impacted his career, but Colborne (now 28) may be able to help at pivot. He remains 6.05, has some skill and can play any forward position.
  • L Ryan Spooner, NY Rangers. He’s RFA and there might be some interest if a Milan to Manhattan trade is in the works. He’s skilled but marginal for the money.
  • LC Alexander Khokhlachev. After a big season in the KHL, thought there might be some interest in coming back over the pond. Note: Signed extension late April not an option.
  • R Seth Griffith. Undersized skill winger who got into 21 games with Buffalo last season. He is not a burner, so may be shy of NHL ability.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning, beautiful day ahead and plenty of things to discuss. A splendid group of guests, starting at 10 on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Bruce visited the first two days of orientation camp, we’ll chat about who stood out.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN1050. We’ll chat CFL, Ricky Ray and I’ll probably bring up the Philadelphia Eagles.
  • Jonah Birenbaum, The Score. Jays audition summer, trade scenarios in mlb, balance of power.

I can be reached at 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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182 Responses to "Who’ll Stop the Rain"

  1. so polar says:

    Lucic and the 2019 first for..? Rakell? Any guesses?

  2. Lowetide says:

    so polar:
    Lucic and the 2019 first for..? Rakell? Any guesses?

    That’s why I left it that way. ALL guesses welcome! 🙂

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    The key (or one of the main keys) to this up and coming season is a bounce-back season from Talbot.

    Everything starts with goaltending – good tending can win games the team doesn’t deserve to but, more importantly bad goaltending loses games and changes games (i.e. deflates the team, changes momentum, etc).

    We don’t need Talbot to get back to Vezina caliber form (although that would sure be nice) but just to be generally solid, somewhere in between the last two seasons).

    History shows last season was the outlier, he was better in the 2nd half (although still too inconsistent, too many bad games and goals) and I fully expect him to be a plus starting goaltender this season.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sign:
    Dyalan DeMelo
    Austin Czarnik
    Kyle Broadizk

    Trade:

    Kris Russell for Josh Leivo

    Trade 2019 1st rounder plus Caleb Jones for Ryan Pulock

    Nuge/McDavid/Rattie
    Leivo/Drai/Puljijarvi
    Lucic/Strome/Aberg
    Khaira/Czarnick/Kassian

    Brodziak/Caggulia

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Pulock
    Sekera/Benning

    DeMelo

    Talbot
    Koskinen

    Haven’t checked the cap but with Russel out, I think it should be OK.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rishaug is just trying to stir the pot – just like he was trying to stir the pot re: the Oilers trading the 10th overall for immediate help.

    Its just fine that the don’t talk contract during the off-season, there is lots of time and I’m sure both parties want to wait (Oilers to make sure he bounces back and to see what Koskinen gives and the player to prove last season was the outlier).

    A non-story!

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I assume Central Scouting simply grades the team’s drafts with regard to where the players picked were ranked by them.

  7. Jaxon says:

    Don’t underestimate the power of birth order, sibling rivalry or sibling admiration.

    “Red Line Report: Skating is the major strength of his game. Smooth, powerful stride and a deceptive change of gear he uses to beat defenders. Too many nights seemed content to take a back seat and play a secondary role.

    One thing that could be a consideration when evaluating McLeod is the effect that being in the shadow of an older brother can have on a player. No matter how good or bad their relationship, there is 17 years of psychological baggage to unpack and that could very well have an impact on things like consistency, drive and leadership. There can be loyalty, competition, jealousy, respect, deference, protectionism all getting in the way. It will be interesting to see him play on a team that his brother isn’t on and has never been on. That independence might just see him thrive.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wonder if Czarnik has any loyalty towards Chiarelli for signing him initially (as an undrafted UFA)?

    I think this player prices himself out of our cap structure given the massive interest in him league wide (reportedly).

  9. leadfarmer says:

    No way I would trade that 2019 first to get rid of Lucic. This team probably doesnt make the playoffs and with a couple key injuries this may be a high lotto pick. Sept 1, 2019 or September 19 2019 is when the CBA will likely be killed (ending at the end of 19-20 season). Stay patient. They always have free buyouts after negotiations. Too many Ladds, Okposos, Seabrooks, Lucics out there that are going to hurt teams. 2 more years.

  10. frjohnk says:

    Unless a trade happens, the next few days will hinge around the Nurse and to a lesser extent Strome signings.

    If Nurse was to be bridged, Id think it would have happened already.

    Nurses camp is probably looking long term. Im thinking somewhere around $4.75M Strome is gonna come in somewhere from $3M to $3.5M.

    Oilers cant add anybody in free agency other than league minimum players to fill roster spots unless a bigger contract gets moved out.

    I agree that running less than 23 players is an option the Oilers will be looking at.

  11. vinotintazo says:

    frjohnk: I agree that running less than 23 players is an option the Oilers will be looking at.

    it’s not mandatory to have a 23 man roster once the season starts?

  12. Woogie63 says:

    $5,033 Cap to go …. This not a problem

    Chris Wagner $675 x 2 … 4th line center
    Brad Malone $650, 13th forward … holds spot for Marody to get 25 games in the AHL
    August 5 signed veteran winger, 14th forward ….$1,000
    Keegan Lowe $675, 7th dman…. holds spot for Bear to get 25 more games in AHL

    Total $3,000

    Leave a cushion of 2,033 … with Yammer, Benson, Marody Gamberdella, Bear starting in the AHL and can be called up to play games when their are injuries

  13. Bar_Qu says:

    Woogie63:
    $5,033 Cap to go …. This not a problem

    Chris Wagner $675 x 2 … 4th line center
    Brad Malone $650, 13th forward … holds spot for Marody to get 25 games in the AHL
    August 5 signed veteran winger, 14th forward ….$1,000
    Keegan Lowe $675, 7th dman…. holds spot for Bear to get 25 more games in AHL

    Total $3,000

    Leave a cushion of 2,033 … with Yammer, Benson, Marody Gamberdella, Bear starting in the AHL and can be called up to play games when their are injuries

    The difficulty is this is not a winning roster – and no way Chia goes into this season (knowingly) making a roster that won’t let him keep his job. He’d be out by March or April if he has another season like this past one.

  14. Woogie63 says:

    Bar_Qu: The difficulty is this is not a winning roster – and no way Chia goes into this season (knowingly) making a roster that won’t let him keep his job. He’d be out by March or April if he has another season like this past one.

    the 4th center, 13, 14th forward and 7th dman will play a lesser role on the success.

    For me the key is the health of Sekera,/Klefbom AND Goalies delivering +.915 SV%

  15. N64 says:

    leadfarmer: Sept 1, 2019 or September 19 2019 is when the CBA will likely be killed (ending at the end of 19-20 season). Stay patient. They always have free buyouts after negotiations

    If Seattle launches 2020 they’d want that expansion draft before a special buyout. 31 teams will want an expansion draft to be delayed if there is a lockout. So they get a free buyout and save.a protected spot. #RusselReset

    After the Vegas pennant you’d think the 31 would win out. But Bettman is probably with the guys ponying up 650M on this one and he seems to get his way.

  16. Jaxon says:

    Money to burn this season:

    VAN has $24M to sign 4 players. Won’t attract many free agents so they may be open to taking on cap
    VGK has $31M to sign 7 players. (Karlsson? Tavares?)
    TOR has $24.7M to sign 6 players. ($9M for 5 after Tavares?)
    NJD has $24.4 to sign 6 players. I doubt they attract Premier free agents so maybe they take cap his in trades too.

  17. Jaxon says:

    frjohnk: Nurses camp is probably looking long term. Im thinking somewhere around $4.75M Strome is gonna come in somewhere from $3M to $3.5M.

    I actually think Nurse’s bridge may be in the $4.16667M area to match Klefbom and Larsson, and a long term deal may fall more in the $5-6M range.

  18. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The key (or one of the main keys) to this up and coming season is a bounce-back season from Talbot.

    Everything starts with goaltending – good tending can win games the team doesn’t deserve to but, more importantly bad goaltending loses games and changes games (i.e. deflates the team, changes momentum, etc).

    We don’t need Talbot to get back to Vezina caliber form (although that would sure be nice) but just to be generally solid, somewhere in between the last two seasons).

    History shows last season was the outlier, he was better in the 2nd half (although still too inconsistent, too many bad games and goals) and I fully expect him to be a plus starting goaltender this season.

    – If you look at the last couple of years: Fleury was a bum who got replaced by Murray, then Murray got injured and Fleury saved the day while Murray recovers

    – Hotlby was hot garbage, then Grubs came in and was awesome, untill he sucked so so bad they had to go back to Holtby in the playoffs out of desperation and looked done

    – Fleury was Hasek+ and Vegas was a “complete team” untill Fleury sucked again and Vegas “didn’t have the talent to beat Washington (but Washington was viewed going into the series as not likely to win, because their teams wasn’t complete, and Fleury was a better goalie)

    – LT’s comment that Yost threw out was pithy, and exact

    – Our PK was great then our goalie sucked, then the PK system was brutal then it got better again because they “fixed it”, then the goalie played better

    – Given the parity in the league, and the way the game is played, the goalie matters so much: they make the 3rd and 4rth lines look good or bad, and the D, and the special teams

    – Going back to the drafting of all these goalies: last year was a gong show: Talbot sucked, LB had a chance and he was awful (and he was the wine-summit’s guy): the team was demoralized, and they couldn’t just feed them to the lions, so they pay full price plus for Montoya who is what he is

    – When all the Vegas goalies were injured they just kept calling up guys and kept the ship going in the regular season: it was amazing: 5 goalies started, three had 16+ games

    – Now we load up on goalies, and this is what they should do: they will ride the hot goalie, and rotate them. Carey Price was all-world and the Habs were a team to contend with: this year he sucked and they were awful.

    – It’s now a cliche, but Burke was so right: he said it should not be called hockey: it’s “goalering”

    – Goalies don’t matter unless they suck, and then they matter when they are good because you can’t win without good goaltending.

  19. frjohnk says:

    Jaxon: I actually think Nurse’s bridge may be in the $4.16667M area to match Klefbom and Larsson, and a long term deal may fall more in the $5-6M range.

    I dont disagree.
    I would believe the Oilers see Nurse as being ahead of Klefbom and Larsson at the time they they signed their long contracts. Factor in the cap going up since 2015 and your numbers probably are not far off.

    As I have said before, a salary cap not going as high as we felt ( over $80M ) and a Nurse long term contract starting throws a monkey wrench into this teams cap. First part has happened. Oilers will have to push for a bridge contract.

  20. Jaxon says:

    leadfarmer: Sept 1, 2019 or September 19 2019 is when the CBA will likely be killed (ending at the end of 19-20 season). Stay patient.

    History doesn’t support this and I’ve heard no evidence that either side is upset enough at anything to trigger an opt out before the expiration of the current deal. Both previous deals went all the way to the expiration date of the CBA. The expiration of the current CBA is the end of the 2021-2022 season, so June of 2022.

    My sense is that both sides (NHL owners and NHLPA) are very happy with expansion. I don’t think anyone but some bitter fans are upset that Vegas did so well. I’m sure some GMs are going to fight to keep more players but that won’t happen as VGK creates a recent successful precedent and league parity. It also creates more revenue for everyone and a larger NHLPA.

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    “RC Austin Czarnik. I wrote about him in April at The Athletic, that may be important because if he does sign there may be media trumpeting his name as someone they uncovered. I don’t care who gets credit but don’t want to be accused of not giving credit. If anyone in the Edmonton media wrote about him before April 6 (article above), please let me know.”

    Your April 6th article was the first one I saw on Czarnik.

    Ian Tulloch at the Athletic included him in a piece on May 18, 2018.

    He did a comprhensive analysis of Riley Nash, Nick Petan, Austin Czarnik, Derek Ryan using
    GAR (goals above replacement) and Heat Maps of shot distances (unblocked shot rate)
    CF% SCF% WOWY etc

    According to Tulloch, “Czarnik is a UFA looking for a team who’s willing to give him an opportunity to make the roster full-time.

    Petan is under contract for one more year, but he’s waiver-eligible this season, meaning he’d have to clear waivers before the Jets could send him back down to the AHL. A team could play the long game and try to claim him for free in October, but it’s likely that a team high on the waiver priority list would put in a claim for him.

    So realistically, a team would need to trade for Petan in the offseason if they want to acquire him. Considering Winnipeg’s biggest organizational weakness is currently at LD, I think a LHD trade would make a lot of sense.”

    Tulloch’s Conclusion “Any time you can add a free wallet like Czarnik (or extremely undervalued wallet like Petan), it’s in your best interest. They might not work out, but there’s a solid chance that they’ll provide top-nine value for less than a $1 million cap hit, which is quite the market inefficiency.”

    Anyone know of any teams who have LHD prospects to spare???

    Edit: Not sure why Tulloch lists Czarnik as UFA when Cap Friendly shows him as RFA

  22. Jaxon says:

    frjohnk: I dont disagree.
    I would believe the Oilers see Nurse as being ahead of Klefbom and Larsson at the time they they signed their long contracts.Factor in the cap going up since 2015 and your numbers probably are not far off.

    As I have said before, a salary cap not going as high as we felt ( over $80M ) and a Nurse long term contract starting throws a monkey wrench into this teams cap.First part has happened.Oilers will have to push for a bridge contract.

    Yup.

  23. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I assume Central Scouting simply grades the team’s drafts with regard to where the players picked were ranked by them.

    That is correct IMO. Central Scouting had Bouchard ranked 4th (among North American Skaters) and rated Oilers Draft as A-minus. Pronman had Bouchard at 17th and so rated Oilers draft as B-minus.

    LT had Ty Smith at 5th and so rated Oilers draft as #$%@$%@$!!!!!!…….. Kidding….LT gave Oilers draft a passing grade.

  24. jm363561 says:

    The whole cap thing is either unbelievable incompetence – and Chia should have been fired by now if it is – or there is a Lucic deal next week. It could be Russell or Sekera but I believe they want to keep both players. Anyone still missing Ebs and his $6m cap hit?

  25. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer:
    No way I would trade that 2019 first to get rid of Lucic.This team probably doesnt make the playoffs and with a couple key injuries this may be a high lotto pick.Sept 1, 2019 or September 19 2019 is when the CBA will likely be killed (ending at the end of 19-20 season).Stay patient.They always have free buyouts after negotiations.Too many Ladds, Okposos, Seabrooks, Lucics out there that are going to hurt teams.2 more years.

    What if the trade was Lucic and the 2019 first and the “return” was “a useful player”….because Id do that in a hearbeat.

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bar_Qu: The difficulty is this is not a winning roster – and no way Chia goes into this season (knowingly) making a roster that won’t let him keep his job. He’d be out by March or April if he has another season like this past one.

    You might be selling him short. He didnt trade this years first rounder even though many thought he was under severe pressure to do so. Time will tell.

  27. Yeti says:

    “RC Austin Czarnik. I wrote about him in April at The Athletic, that may be important because if he does sign there may be media trumpeting his name as someone they uncovered. I don’t care who gets credit but don’t want to be accused of not giving credit. If anyone in the Edmonton media wrote about him before April 6 (article above), please let me know.”

    If you have a shovel, I’m guessing you’ll find mention of Czarnik in the box buried under Ricki’s porch.

  28. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jaxon: I actually think Nurse’s bridge may be in the $4.16667M area to match Klefbom and Larsson, and a long term deal may fall more in the $5-6M range.

    Interesting. So anything 15-20% less than this would be a good job by the GM?

  29. deardylan says:

    Germany pulled the tender and he became one of the forwards. Love it. Wonder if Dadbot could do that to help score in last minute?

  30. Andy Dufresne says:

    LT, do you know if analytics guy Micah Blake McCurdy is related to Bruce McCurdy?

  31. Bar_Qu says:

    Woogie63,

    For whatever reason, people fixate on a team that underperforms who didn’t add “name” players. I also subscribe to the belief that 4th liners are ones who impact the team. I’d reference LT’s question about “where are the extra goals coming from (above the 215 expected).” I don’t see any of those guys doing it.

    Andy Dufresne,

    I think there was surprise in management to the strong reactions from the fan base/media over this poor season. Firing all the assistant coaches was one way to deflect the anger. I truly believe Chia is gone by the end of the year if this season goes the same way (especially if Maclellan is fired during the season and nothing changes).

  32. Doug McLachlan says:

    I have been very impressed with how well Matt Cane’s model has been so far in predicting RFA and UFA signing AAV.

    LT has mentioned him before and posted the link previously but I’ll repost here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-Pnzfvmo_1hDlWu7WqJHVyTZqy15386jVESKSOf0V4/edit#gid=0

    Czarnik is predicted at 1yr for $715K but given the apparent interest, that number may be shy in terms of years and $. Still, if he comes in at 2 x $925K and we are confident he can handle the fourth line duties, great.

    My concern is straight out of “old school”, he’s only 5’9″ and I’m still Smurf-scarred – though I love Yamamoto.

    A name I suggested to LT on twitter last night was Florida UFA RW, 26 year old former Vancouver 3rd rounder Alexandre Grenier. His counting stats are pretty similar to Czarnik’s but he’s 6’4″.

    LT’s concern, quite properly, were his boots. He played with Florida’s farm team last season but previously was with Utica – anyone have a chance to comment on his foot speed?

  33. Jaxon says:

    Andy Dufresne: Interesting. So anything 15-20% less than this would be a good job by the GM?

    Sure. They played him like he was the best D on the team. 6th most 5-on-5 minutes in the entire NHL. Even his 5-on-5 production has him in elite territory. So if the other D behind him make 5.5, 4.167, 4.167 and 4, and he’s the youngest with the most room to grow with the best skating and meanest edge, what do you pay him? Even on a bridge deal. It will be hard to argue less than 4 on bridge and less than 5.5 long term.

  34. Andy Dufresne says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I truly believe Chia is gone by the end of the year if this season goes the same way (especially if Maclellan is fired during the season and nothing changes).

    Agreed.

    Current Odds for 2018-2019 Stanley Cup

    Tampa Bay Lightning +1000
    Nashville Predators +1100
    Boston Bruins +1200
    Pittsburgh Penguins +1200
    Toronto Maple Leafs +1200
    Vegas Golden Knights +1200
    Washington Capitals +1200
    Winnipeg Jets +1200
    Edmonton Oilers +1800
    Anaheim Ducks +2200
    Chicago Blackhawks +2200
    San Jose Sharks +2200
    Calgary Flames +2500
    Columbus Blue Jackets +2500
    Dallas Stars +2500
    Los Angeles Kings +2500
    Minnesota Wild +2500
    Philadelphia Flyers +2800
    Colorado Avalanche +3300
    St. Louis Blues +3300
    Florida Panthers +4000
    New Jersey Devils +4000
    Carolina Hurricanes +5000
    Montreal Canadiens +5000
    New York Islanders +5000
    New York Rangers +5000
    Buffalo Sabres +6600
    Detroit Red Wings +6600
    Arizona Coyotes +7500
    Ottawa Senators +7500
    Vancouver Canucks +7500

  35. leadfarmer says:

    Andy Dufresne: What if the trade was Lucic and the 2019 first and the “return” was “a useful player”….because Id do that in a hearbeat.

    Not with an expansion draft looming.

  36. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bar_Qu: I truly believe Chia is gone by the end of the year if this season goes the same way (especially if Maclellan is fired during the season and nothing changes).

    Agreed.

    Current Odds for 2018-2019 Stanley Cup

    Tampa Bay Lightning +1000
    Nashville Predators +1100
    Boston Bruins +1200
    Pittsburgh Penguins +1200
    Toronto Maple Leafs +1200
    Vegas Golden Knights +1200
    Washington Capitals +1200
    Winnipeg Jets +1200
    Edmonton Oilers +1800
    Anaheim Ducks +2200
    Chicago Blackhawks +2200
    San Jose Sharks +2200
    Calgary Flames +2500
    Columbus Blue Jackets +2500
    Dallas Stars +2500
    Los Angeles Kings +2500
    Minnesota Wild +2500
    Philadelphia Flyers +2800
    Colorado Avalanche +3300
    St. Louis Blues +3300
    Florida Panthers +4000
    New Jersey Devils +4000
    Carolina Hurricanes +5000
    Montreal Canadiens +5000
    New York Islanders +5000
    New York Rangers +5000
    Buffalo Sabres +6600
    Detroit Red Wings +6600
    Arizona Coyotes +7500
    Ottawa Senators +7500
    Vancouver Canucks +7500

    Germany just got eliminated from the World Cup by South Korea…..so anything is possible.

  37. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sign:
    Dyalan DeMelo
    Austin Czarnik
    Kyle Broadizk

    Trade:

    Kris Russell for Josh Leivo

    Trade 2019 1st rounder plus Caleb Jones for Ryan Pulock

    Nuge/McDavid/Rattie
    Leivo/Drai/Puljijarvi
    Lucic/Strome/Aberg
    Khaira/Czarnick/Kassian

    Brodziak/Caggulia

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Pulock
    Sekera/Benning

    DeMelo

    Talbot
    Koskinen

    Haven’t checked the cap but with Russel out, I think it should be OK.

    Have you forgotten Russell has a “no move contract” for a reason.

  38. Doug McLachlan says:

    Sabres making a deal with Pittsburgh for Sheary and Hunwick. Taking on $5.5M onto the cap at the cost, apparently, of a pick.

    Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger

    Pending trade call Sheary and Hunwick to the Buffalo Sabres for a pick.

    10:00 AM – Jun 27, 2018

    Interesting, precursor to another move by the Pens?

  39. Jordan says:

    I am not in favour of trading any 1st round picks for existing players.

    This aversion is only enhanced when there are expansion drafts that will leech talent from a team.

    This recurring idea that Lucic and the 2019 would be traded for a useful player is horrific.

    If he can’t trade Lucic on his own merit’s than Lucic has been overpaid. Based on our knowledge of the player, I think it’s fair to describe that overpay is in price, structure and term.

    Needing to add a draft pick to move a bad contract is bad enough, but adding a 1st rounder, where teams have the best chances to find impact players at guaranteed low contract rates is aweful asset management.

    I understand this may be the best option for Chiarelli to fix his mistake in signing Lucic to that albatross contract.

    I understand that the Oilers should be contending during Connor’s window.

    In my opinion, the window for contending is getting worse the longer Chiarelli is at the helm.

    I’m really angry that the window is shrinking due to poor management.

  40. Jaxon says:

    I truly believe Chiarelli has worked largely based on ego. He was given an opportunity when hired after the McDavid lottery and a plethora of young talent with Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Schultz, Draisaitl, Nurse, and Klefbom already in the system. He could have kept his powder dry and made some moderate free agency signings and been quite good. Now, if that team performed well and won a cup eventually, what would they say about Chiarelli’s legacy? Not much. They’d day he was simply gifted a great roster. Instead he had to appear to do bold things. Hence the history of high profile trades. He knows he still has his golden ticket in McDavid. It hasn’t worked as well as he thought it would. The injury ridden first session exacerbated things and another high profile draft pick feel into his lap in Puljujarvi. I think if he had left things as is and simply signed some reasonable free agents that summer they would have had the same huge season with Hall, no Lucic. They were bound to bounce back just by staying put that season simply by being healthier.

  41. Andy Dufresne says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “RC Austin Czarnik. I wrote about him in April at The Athletic, that may be important because if he does sign there may be media trumpeting his name as someone they uncovered. I don’t care who gets credit but don’t want to be accused of not giving credit. If anyone in the Edmonton media wrote about him before April 6 (article above), please let me know.”

    Your April 6th article was the first one I saw on Czarnik.

    Ian Tulloch at the Athletic included him in a piece on May 18, 2018.

    He did a comprhensive analysis of Riley Nash, Nick Petan, Austin Czarnik, Derek Ryan using
    GAR (goals above replacement) andHeat Maps of shot distances (unblocked shot rate)
    CF% SCF% WOWY etc

    According to Tulloch,“Czarnik is a UFA looking for a team who’s willing to give him an opportunity to make the roster full-time.

    Petan is under contract for one more year, but he’s waiver-eligible this season, meaning he’d have to clear waivers before the Jets could send him back down to the AHL. A team could play the long game and try to claim him for free in October, but it’s likely that a team high on the waiver priority list would put in a claim for him.

    So realistically, a team would need to trade for Petan in the offseason if they want to acquire him. Considering Winnipeg’s biggest organizational weakness is currently at LD, I think a LHD trade would make a lot of sense.”

    Tulloch’s Conclusion “Any time you can add a free wallet like Czarnik (or extremely undervalued wallet like Petan), it’s in your best interest. They might not work out, but there’s a solid chance that they’ll provide top-nine value for less than a $1 million cap hit, which is quite the market inefficiency.”

    Anyone know of any teams who have LHD prospects to spare???

    Edit: Not sure why Tulloch lists Czarnik as UFA when Cap Friendly shows him as UFA

  42. Oilman99 says:

    Jaxon: I actually think Nurse’s bridge may be in the $4.16667M area to match Klefbom and Larsson, and a long term deal may fall more in the $5-6M range.

    Over pay for a bridge, and long term contract for a guy that hasn’t proven himself yet.

  43. Durag says:

    Oilman99: Have you forgotten Russell has a “no move contract” for a reason.

    You’d think he would accept a move to Toronto. He’s already scored some big goals for them!

  44. Jaxon says:

    Oilman99: Over pay for a bridge, and long term contract for a guy that hasn’t proven himself yet.

    I hear you and don’t really disagree, but why are they playing him the 6th most minutes in the entire NHL? I know there are injury reasons but the fact remains they played him that much and he scored at a pretty high rate against elites. Nurse’s agent has a lot of ammo going into these negotiations.

  45. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Sabres making a deal with Pittsburgh for Sheary and Hunwick.Taking on $5.5M onto the cap at the cost, apparently, of a pick.

    Darren Dreger@DarrenDreger

    Pending trade call Sheary and Hunwick to the Buffalo Sabres for a pick.

    10:00 AM – Jun 27, 2018

    Interesting, precursor to another move by the Pens?

    That was my first thought too. Pens clear out that much cap, Rutherford definitely has something in the works.

  46. OilSafety says:

    Milan Lucic, the 2019 1st for ERIK HAULA, VGN 3rd line center @2.75AAV for two more years. Saves probably close to 1m on Strome who they let walk.

    Instead of Lucic Strome for 9.5m, we get Haula and 6.75 in space.

    Haula is coming off a career year and was just resigned, but dare to dream. Luc wants part of that Vegas story action.

  47. Woogie63 says:

    Bar_Qu: The difficulty is this is not a winning roster – and no way Chia goes into this season (knowingly) making a roster that won’t let him keep his job. He’d be out by March or April if he has another season like this past one.

    I am not sure PC is worried about losing his job?

    Drafting and young affordable talent is the best we have had in a long time.
    McDavid, Driasaitl and Hopkins are all signed long term
    His top 3 dman are all young, under control and very affordable.
    He ONLY has 4 NTC/NMC contracts, all four are the cost of signing non home grown players
    Ever team at the cap, has to sneak under the highest limited
    The rink is full and they just took a price increase

    all the Hall, Lucic, Russell, Reinhart and no 4th center, is explained and DONE in the Oiler office

  48. McSorley33 says:

    Pretty frightening to see people throwing around our 1st round pick for 2019…….if Talbot struggles that pick could be really valuable.

  49. vinotintazo says:

    idk, I don’t see Nurse getting payed 4M for a bridge, in the NHL offensive Dmen get payed.

    He doesnt produce that much offense, can’t run a PP. I just don’t see it.

    I think he should get the Larsson deal (just cap adjusted) so something around < 5M x 6.

    Just need Chia to make the space.

  50. Jaxon says:

    I’m not in favour of letting any first round picks go. We’ve seen the talent that can be available all the way through the first round and into the second. These players are guaranteed to be cheap for three or more years down the road and cost controlled even longer. In a cap world the opposite is a recipe for success. Look at NYR, NYI, DET drafts this year. They have jumpstarted a reboot on the fly. Acquire 1st rounders don’t trade them.

  51. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Oilman99: Over pay for a bridge, and long term contract for a guy that hasn’t proven himself yet.

    Not comparing Nurse to Subban, but Montreal stood firm on the bridge deal, and ended up paying him 9M after it was expired. They probably could have got him to sign long term for around 6-7M if not for proving himself on the bridge deal. Nurse making 4-5M AAV in about the 4th or 5th year of the contract might look pretty good then. If we bridge him, we might pay big-time in 2 yrs.

  52. Jaxon says:

    vinotintazo:
    idk, I don’t see Nurse getting payed 4M for a bridge, in the NHL offensive Dmen get payed.

    He doesnt produce that much offense, can’t run a PP. I just don’t see it.

    I think he should get the Larsson deal (just cap adjusted) so something around < 5M x 6.

    Just need Chia to make the space.

    Speed, youth (he’s only 23!), size, grit, tight with McDavid, fan favourite. He’s got a lot of leverage.

    Not only was Nurse a top pairing D, but he was top 6 in 5-on-5 TOI in the entire NHL Only players ahead of him: Doughty, Orlov, Ceci, Burns, Gardiner. And he did produce fairly well. Of 133 D with over 1000 minutes at 5-on-5 he was 58th in points/60, which is top pairing. He was 39th (top pair) in 5-on-5 pts in the NHL with 20. Just ahead of him with 21: McAvoy, Giordano, Vlasic, Suter. tied with him: Maatta, Ekblad. Just behind him with 19: Pulock, Morrisey, Matheson, Muzzin, Chara. With 18: Ekholm, Ekman-Larsson, Byfuglien. Mostly elite, well paid company. I’m afraid he’s going to get paid, and quite well.

  53. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – There was an interesting bit on Bobcat’s show yesterday as I was driving home: Move the NBA draft after free-agency signing. The thought being there might be more movements if you knew who you had on your roster, and there would be more transactions.

    – So then they talked about it for hockey: i.e. if Tavares signed elsewhere, NYI would likely be doing more wheeling and dealing, including trading picks

    – I liked the idea. The guy who came up with the idea talked about how in the NBA in the 70’s: the draft was the day after the end of the season: crazy!.

    – Moving the draft after the free-agency would make those draft-picks more valuable as well IMO

  54. McSorley33 says:

    Woogie63,

    I am not sure PC is worried about losing his job?

    Drafting and young affordable talent is the best we have had in a long time.
    McDavid, Driasaitl and Hopkins are all signed long term
    His top 3 dman are all young, under control and very affordable.
    He ONLY has 4 NTC/NMC contracts, all four are the cost of signing non home grown players
    Ever team at the cap, has to sneak under the highest limited
    The rink is full and they just took a price increase

    all the Hall, Lucic, Russell, Reinhart and no 4th center, is explained and DONE in the Oiler office
    **************************************************************************************************************
    Interesting take.

    The NHL awards were handed out a few days ago and quite a few media people were pointing out
    the Peter Chiarelli theme of the night….Peter stole the show.

    Now, I am going to concede that I like what he has done drafting – in general.

    But, if the Oilers are once again out of the playoff race by US Thanksgiving 2018 – I would not
    be so confident in PC’s tenure.

    Further, there is something off-putting about a team being as bad as the Oilers being right up against the salary cap. Milan Lucic and Kris Russell say hello.

    San Jose can afford to be in on the Tavares sweepstakes?

  55. Oil2Oilers says:

    Lucic + 2nd to Vancouver for Tanev? He would sell seats there.

    Lucic + 1st for Honka? The first seems like a lot to add.

  56. vinotintazo says:

    Jaxon: Not only was Nurse a top pairing D

    He had a great start, I’m really high on him, but remember 2/3 of our d-core was banged up. Just because he was the only healthy D and thus played top pairing 5v5 doesn’t make him one. (See Schultz) 😛

    He’s got a lot of leverage as you said since he played that much, but the Oil have lots of comparables too.

    Guys like Dumolin, Slavin, Matheson, Pesce are around the same age and skillset. Some with same offense and some with a bit more.

    The more years (UFA) we sign him the higher his cap hit could get.

  57. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I wonder if Czarnik has any loyalty towards Chiarelli for signing him initially (as an undrafted UFA)?

    I think this player prices himself out of our cap structure given the massive interest in him league wide (reportedly).

    I think he’ll go where he sees the best shot at making it. Knowing PC helps, and his history of getting his signings on the roster often without merit. I’d say the Oilers are in the hunt, he can’t ask for too much yet.

  58. SoxandOil says:

    Regarding Talbots performance this past season, is it too simple to suggest that twins infants had a impact on his play. I’m in no way saying this as a negative or blaming him or his family. Babies are a ton of work especially to first time parents and twins even more so. Again not saying this as a bad thing merely a suggestion to the dip in performance. If he wasn’t getting as much sleep it could impact reaction times and overall energy levels obviously. My old work partner and good friend had twins as his first children a couple years ago and the first 6months he was basically a zombie at work.

  59. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    I’m not too optimistic about this roster as it sits right now to be honest. I’m hoping Chia has a Lucic trade in his pocket for after his bonus is paid. A good place for the Oilers to be shopping is some of these teams that are trying to get to the cap floor, but have players whose salary is higher than their cap hit. Justin Faulk makes 6M this year, but his Cap hit is 4.833. Canes owner seems pretty frugal so far, so this doesn’t make much sense. I know this will bring tons comments from the Faulk haters, but we need to be realistic about what we can get. Also, we shouldn’t be throwing draft picks around like they’re worthless in order to move Lucic. I just read somewhere that we drafted Stuart Skinner with the 3rd round pick we got from STL for Yakupov. The more picks, the better chance of finding something good in the draft.

  60. N64 says:

    hartman:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Bruce has mentioned that Micah is his distant cousin: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/what-on-earth-are-edmonton-oilers-going-to-do-with-justin-schultz

    Did not read that distant cousin as literally.

    “Enter my own namesake, my distant cousin Micah Blake McCurdy, a hockey-loving mathematician who has a terrific knack for taking dry numbers, adding water, and stirring up some nifty visuals.”

  61. Tapdog says:

    Why do I get the feeling Talbot is going to be moved.

    If the verbal is that neither group is looking to talk contract to start the season. The risk for the Oilers is that he plays well and subsequently plays himself off the team due to the ask being to rich for the Oilers to take.
    How do the Oilers move him if that is the case?
    So is this a move now for something or risk losing for nothing scenario?
    Can we take losing an asset for nothing?
    Am I just looking at this wrong?

  62. N64 says:

    Tapdog:
    Why do I get the feeling Talbot is going to be moved.

    If the verbalis that neither group is looking to talk contract to start the season. The risk for the Oilers is that he plays well and subsequently plays himself off the team due to the ask being to rich for the Oilers to take.
    How do the Oilers move himif thatis the case?
    So is this a move now for something or risk losing for nothing scenario?
    Can we take losing an asset for nothing?
    Am I just looking at this wrong?

    His trade value is also reduced until he has a good start. They need their best bet for next year between the pipes. As long as that is still him he stays.

  63. --hudson-- says:

    Does Justin Faulk have a no trade or no move clause? The Yost column seems to indicate he does effective July 1, which means he’s getting traded in the next few days. https://www.tsn.ca/just-how-good-is-justin-faulk-1.1123444

    However capfriendly doesn’t have him with a NTC or NMC.
    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/justin-faulk

  64. Side says:

    SoxandOil:
    Regarding Talbots performance this past season, is it too simple to suggest that twins infants had a impact on his play. I’m in no way saying this as a negative or blaming him or his family. Babies are a ton of work especially to first time parents and twins even more so. Again not saying this as a bad thing merely a suggestion to the dip in performance. If he wasn’t getting as much sleep it could impact reaction times and overall energy levels obviously. My old work partner and good friend had twins as his first children a couple years ago and the first 6months he was basically a zombie at work.

    Talbot was a dad during 2016-2017 season where he did really well.

    I don’t see how his twins would suddenly become a problem for him which caused his performance to drop in the 2017-2018 season.

  65. OilClog says:

    Milan for Phil

  66. russ99 says:

    Here’s the rub. There’s no way we’re in the playoffs with the team we have,. Right now it’s looking like we’re out by the end of February at best.

    You can’t say a turnaround by Talbot alone does it, as the difference from last season to the previous was goals against and we haven’t added the support players that we gave up last summer that at least partially caused that increase.

    So I’d think there’s a better chance Talbot gets shellshocked again than rebounds with the forwards blowing coverage and the lack of forwards that can affect opposition shot quality, especially with Nuge, our best defensive forward, going walkbout on wing for offense again to start the season.

    Half-believing these Lucic rumors, I’d say he’s moved to an already agreed deal on July 1st after the bonus payment goes through, that gives us the cap space to sign Nurse and add some better NHL forwards to a team devoid of them outside the top 4 players.

  67. bleedingorange97 says:

    First post but longtime follower and listener… great job by the way all of ON and the fans. Anyways what about bringing yak back on a 1yr/1mill deal. Put him on the right side with mcdavid or drai and hope he gets that scoring touch back. Shifty guy like Samsonov in the 06 cup run and could be used properly with sheltered minutes and special teams and shootout times. Just a thought but I always loved the kid and his passion. Low risk high reward

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: I actually think Nurse’s bridge may be in the $4.16667M area to match Klefbom and Larsson, and a long term deal may fall more in the $5-6M range.

    I think the bridge could come in much lower, just looking at Trouba’s bridge. Trouba is the better player and will command more in a long-term deal, yet took a 2 x $3M bridge.

  69. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Kris Russell for Josh Leivo

    Russell pretty much has to go to the Flames this year. Maybe they think he could play RD better than Bartkowski. Maybe something around Bennett, who seems in the doghouse?

  70. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    bleedingorange97:
    First post but longtime follower and listener… great job by the way all of ON and the fans. Anyways what about bringing yak back on a 1yr/1mill deal. Put him on the right side with mcdavid or drai and hope he gets that scoring touch back

    – Hi welcome! I love the idea (will never happen: he’s got sideburns, if his name was Neil Yaker from the Prairies they would love him)

    – He had good scoring numbers and positive possession when he played with McD. He’s a righty.

    – But just as when Jultz was leaving and I said he’d be worth paying $1.5MM as a PP 3rd line specialist, there was no chance of that happening.

    – You go RNH-McD-Yak, they be scoring a lot IMO. Live with the chaos

  71. T0ML says:

    ArmchairGM: I think the bridge could come in much lower, just looking at Trouba’s bridge. Trouba is the better player and will command more in a long-term deal, yet took a 2 x $3M bridge.

    Trouba also held out alot longer and soured his trade value to the point that he pretty much had to take that contract if memory serves he wanted to go to Det and pretty much that.

  72. Richard S.S. says:

    Anyone who doesn’t have their life massively disturbed by the later stages of pregnancy, birth and that first year of life isn’t someone I want to know. It matters not how many or how few children a person has, each birth is unique and superbly special.

    Normal life is stressful. Family life is stressful. Work is stressful, as is everything else. People handle stress differently. I won’t disparage anyone who considers Family as a primary concern. That includes Hockey Players.

  73. digger50 says:

    It is nice we are sitting in a relatively positive place right now. Good draft, no backward steps and still time and effort will be spent to improve the roster.

    More history is unfolding and revealing itself to us. It seems highly likely now that Peter was influenced in his early days here and the influence or “well intentioned input” still does have an effect when analyzing roster moves, player performance ect. It may still have been Peter at the helm and so I don’t defend the decisions he made but now I can understand why he is still in his position. There are others in the Org that need to look in the mirror before looking at Peter.

    Coaching has also settled down recently. I would love if this continued but it may be back front and center after 20 games. I’m not a Tmac supporter, but I could be if he can build a good coaching team where they are open, supportive and adaptive.

    I like a lot about the current roster.

    But here we are with “If Talbot returns to form and Connor stays healthy we might be in the playoffs.”
    What a disappointing statement. We still have to cross our fingers and hope just to “make the playoffs?”

    We should be able to make league average without Connor McDavid no? With Connor we should be far from hoping and praying just to better than half the teams.

    So long way to go still, though it is a time to be optimistic. It can be done. A few good moves, find that “right” player.

    Just enjoying all the potential trades, signings and creative thinking that posters are putting forward.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    Unless a trade happens, the next few days will hinge around the Nurse and to a lesser extent Strome signings.

    If Nurse was to be bridged, Id think it would have happened already.

    Nurses camp is probably looking long term. Im thinking somewhere around $4.75MStrome is gonna come in somewhere from $3M to $3.5M.

    Oilers cant add anybody in free agency other than league minimum players to fill roster spots unless a bigger contract gets moved out.

    I agree that running less than 23 players is an option the Oilers will be looking at.

    I think that long term number, $4.75M, is about right for Nurse and, if he’s willing, I sign that today.

    We’d be over the cap for a 23 man roster but will have the summer to figure out compliance.

    Man, I hope this doesn’t mean that a Lowe or Malone make the opening night roster because they are a couple hundred grand lower than some of the other candidates. Stanton too (although he’s probably #7 right now).

  75. LadiesloveSmid says:

    bleedingorange97,

    I love Yak. He’s an improvement on wingers they have now. Ship has probably sailed, though

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    vinotintazo: it’s not mandatory to have a 23 man roster once the season starts?

    No, teams do not have to carry the max.

  77. neojanus says:

    I’m not even considering Faulk if I’m the Oilers. Yost’s numbers are beyond convincing and other TSN sources have pretty much said that he’s out of shape, likes to party too much, etc. There is no way that the Oilers are interested.

    What about giving Yakupov one more chance at close to league minimum? He obviously has a hard time fitting into this game (and, by all accounts, is a bit of an outsider), but lordy is his potential still high. He is absolutely the kind of guy that could use the kind of coaching that comes with the new assistants and when he gets playing time, he tends to produce. The Denver Post suggested that losing ice time was one of the issues with Yak’s game earlier this year. The numbers folk between here and Nation will defend the fancy stats when Yak was actually given some time with elite players back in his Edmonton days.

    I see him as a cheap option that has potential for 1st line time and someone who can play with tempo. I’ve always been a bit of a Yak fan.

    Duclair is the other tempting option. Unless Lucic is out of here in a stunning reversal of fortune, we have no money to spend.

    Tricky trade scenarios and a weak pool of UFAs.

  78. dustrock says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Anyone who doesn’t have their life massively disturbed by the later stages of pregnancy, birth and that first year of life isn’t someone I want to know.It matters not how many or how few children a person has, each birth is unique and superbly special.

    Normal life is stressful.Family life is stressful.Work is stressful, as is everything else. People handle stress differently.I won’t disparage anyone who considers Family as a primary concern.That includes Hockey Players.

    For sure. Did we ever look at Talbot’s home vs road stats? Would not be shocked at him struggling with 1 year old twins. And would not hold it against him.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Have you forgotten Russell has a “no move contract” for a reason.

    No

  80. Primetime says:

    – He had good scoring numbers and positive possession when he played with McD.He’s a righty.

    Minor nitpick…Yak is not a righty…prefers to play RW though….

  81. knighttown says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Woogie63,

    For whatever reason, people fixate on a team that underperforms who didn’t add “name” players. I also subscribe to the belief that 4th liners are ones who impact the team.

    See, I see it differently. You can only impact the game if you are on the ice and the 4th liners really don’t play that much over the course of a season relative to the defense. I’m not sure people realize that by using 6 defense you are giving WAY more ice time to players at the bottom of the roster.

    I looked at 2017-18 and 2016-17

    Your #1 defenseman will play about 6% more than Connor McDavid. (1850 Klef or Nurse vs 1750 for CMD)

    Your #2 D will play as much as CMD; Sekera 1718 vs CMD 1732

    Your #3 and #4 D will play as much as Leon and Nuge. In 2017 it was Lars 1591, Leon 1498, Nuge 1450 and Russell 1442)

    Your #5 D will play as much as your 4th F (Benning 1261 vs Lucic 1308)

    In the past two years the Oilers haven’t had consistent 6/7/8 guys due to health (Sekera) swaps (Davidson in for Auvituu), auditions (Bear) and demotions (Gryba) so it’s hard to get an exact trend.

    If you look at Gryba and Sekera together they played 900 minutes. If you look at Auvituu giving way to Davidson and then to Bear they played 1200 minutes.

    The year before, Nurse played 750 but missed a bunch of time and Davidson played 430 so 1200 total. Gryba was the #7 and played 650.

    So best guess…

    #6D plays 1000 minutes which is more than much of our bottom 6 F’s (Cags, Jujhair, Jesse and Kass all between 850 and 900)

    #7 plays 800 minutes or if the role isn’t settled like last year, #7 450 (Auvituu)), #8 400 (Davidson), #9 335 (Bear) and #10 310 (Gryba).

    That’s a long way of saying as a guess for this year:
    -Klefbom and Larsson will affect the game (or have the chance to) as much as McDavid
    -Nurse and Russell will equal Drai and RNH
    -Sekera and Benning (roles are more settled this year) should play more than your ENTIRE second line (or more accurately forwards 4,5,6)

    Keegan Lowe will play 650 minutes, about the same as the #10 forward. And if you get a major injury he’ll play as much as Nuge. This role is way undervalued.

    Ethan Bear will play 400-500 minutes about the same amount as a mostly full time 4th liner like Hendricks and Slepy were.

    If I ran a team I’d invest 20 million in my top 4 D and another 6 in my 5/6. I’d then give NHL deals to real NHL defensemen for spots 7 and 8 cause they will play a lot.

    I’d pay less for F’s 11-12-13-14 as they just don’t play enough to affect the game over the course of a season.

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR,

    I know this will bring tons comments from the Faulk haters,

    Disliking a hockey’s player’s results is not “hating” him.

    The introduction of “haters” has brought the general discourse of this place and others down more than a few notches.

    Person 1: “I’ve evaluated this player’s results and found he hurts the team far more than he helps them”

    Person 2; “Hater!”

    Hate is an emotion.

    The best evaluation is done without emotion. (Which is why NHL teams should have non-staff evaluation as a part of theirs, but that’s another subject.)

    Haters.

    I fucking hate “Haters”

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    N64: Did not read that distant cousin as literally.

    “Enter my own namesake, my distant cousin Micah Blake McCurdy, a hockey-loving mathematician who has a terrific knack for taking dry numbers, adding water, and stirring up some nifty visuals.”

    I didn’t read that as literal either

  84. Bar_Qu says:

    knighttown,

    Good points. I remember Dellow doing a thing on putting more emphasis on bottom pairing D than on 4th liners, which I had forgotten until you mentioned it.

    I feel, and this may be a systems thing more than players, that 4th liners need to be able to step into PK and marginal minutes role to give top lines a breather, and not give up a lot more than they contribute. I worry the 4th will be populated not by guys who need NHL minutes and are developing and/or tweeners that can help, but instead by players who do not add anything meaningful beyond a low Cap number.

    I concede your point about the importance of 6th and 7th D men relative to forwards though.

  85. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR,


    I fucking hate “Haters”

    – Awesome: me too

    – BTW – I fucking hate you, and some other posters . Hate them. Me and Rod Smart: hate’in

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Here’s the rub. There’s no way we’re in the playoffs with the team we have,. Right now it’s looking like we’re out by the end of February at best.

    You can’t say a turnaround by Talbot alone does it, as the difference from last season to the previous was goals against and we haven’t added the support players that we gave up last summer that at least partially caused that increase.

    So I’d think there’s a better chance Talbot gets shellshocked again than rebounds with the forwards blowing coverage and the lack of forwards that can affect opposition shot quality, especially with Nuge, our best defensive forward, going walkbout on wing for offense again to start the season.

    Half-believing these Lucic rumors, I’d say he’s moved to an already agreed deal on July 1st after the bonus payment goes through, that gives us the cap space to sign Nurse and add some better NHL forwardsto a team devoid of them outside the top 4 players.

    You’re correct that GA (especially 4v5) was the biggest issue. Early on GF was bad, but that corrected.

    That said, it’s my opinion that the 4v5 structure and Dmen health were a big deal.

    Sekera was thought by some to be the best Oiler Dman in 16/17. He wasn’t there all year and was only “Seksey” for the last 6 games ( see @oilersnerdalert posts for more detail)

    Klef’s 5v5 GF% was 33% from Oct 1 – Dec 1. His GF% from Dec 2 – April 15 was 50%

    Larsson GF% was 42.1%. From Oct 1 – Dec 1. His GF% from Dec 2- April 15 was 55.2%

    Assuming health and no changes I have this team at about 96 points right now.

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    knighttown: See, I see it differently.You can only impact the game if you are on the ice and the 4th liners really don’t play that much over the course of a season relative to the defense.I’m not sure people realize that by using 6 defense you are giving WAY more ice time to players at the bottom of the roster.

    I looked at 2017-18 and 2016-17

    Your #1 defenseman will play about 6% more than Connor McDavid.(1850 Klef or Nurse vs 1750 for CMD)

    Your #2 D will play as much as CMD; Sekera 1718 vs CMD 1732

    Your #3 and #4 D will play as much as Leon and Nuge. In 2017 it was Lars 1591, Leon 1498, Nuge 1450 and Russell 1442)

    Your #5 D will play as much as your 4th F (Benning 1261 vs Lucic 1308)

    In the past two years the Oilers haven’t had consistent 6/7/8 guys due to health (Sekera) swaps (Davidson in for Auvituu), auditions (Bear) and demotions (Gryba) so it’s hard to get an exact trend.

    If you look at Gryba and Sekera together theyplayed 900 minutes.If you look at Auvituu giving way to Davidson and then to Bear they played 1200 minutes.

    The year before, Nurse played 750 but missed a bunch of time and Davidson played 430 so 1200 total.Gryba was the #7 and played 650.

    So best guess…

    #6D plays 1000 minutes which is more than much of our bottom 6 F’s (Cags, Jujhair, Jesse and Kass all between 850 and 900)

    #7 plays 800 minutes or if the role isn’t settled like last year, #7 450 (Auvituu)), #8 400 (Davidson), #9 335 (Bear) and #10 310 (Gryba).

    That’s a long way of saying as a guess for this year:
    -Klefbom and Larsson will affect the game (or have the chance to) as much as McDavid
    -Nurse and Russell will equal Drai and RNH
    -Sekera and Benning (roles are more settled this year) should play more than your ENTIRE second line (or more accurately forwards 4,5,6)

    Keegan Lowe will play 650 minutes, about the same as the #10 forward.And if you get a major injury he’ll play as much as Nuge.This role is way undervalued.

    Ethan Bear will play 400-500 minutes about the same amount as a mostly full time 4th liner like Hendricks and Slepy were.

    If I ran a team I’d invest 20 million in my top 4 D and another 6 in my 5/6. I’d then give NHL deals to real NHL defensemen for spots 7 and 8 cause they will play a lot.

    I’d pay less for F’s 11-12-13-14 as they just don’t play enough to affect the game over the course of a season.

    Fantastic post KT.

    It’s all true.

  88. Richard S.S. says:

    In the 2016-17 Season, Connor McDavid and Cam Talbot carried a mostly healthy team to the Playoffs. Last year, health was a rarity. With a mostly healthy team, Connor McDavid and Cam Talbot will get the Oilers to the Playoffs again.

    TOI matters. Any time Connor McDavid is not on the ice, the Oilers suck. He can’t play every minute, but not being there for at least 25-26 minutes is wrong. Finding the best RW for his Line means finding someone who excels where Connor or Ryan do not excel as well.
    If Leon Draisaitl can drive his own line, the Oilers will really go places. Milan Lucic has functioned well with Draisaitl so all they need is a good fitting RW. They should be playing at least 23-24 minutes and perhaps more.

    Size is important. The Bottom Six (seven or eight) are changing in today NHL. Speed and scoring are becoming a must. Size will always be important but speed and scoring are now the requirements for everybody. Why is size important? It allows the smaller players to flourish without being overly abused by the assholes and idiots and sickos that will always exist in this game. Pardon my language.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Awesome: me too

    – BTW – I fucking hate you, and some other posters .Hate them.Me and Rod Smart: hate’in

    I can’t garner enough emotion for your tripe to even dislike you let alone hate.

  90. stephen sheps says:

    knighttown: See, I see it differently.You can only impact the game if you are on the ice and the 4th liners really don’t play that much over the course of a season relative to the defense.I’m not sure people realize that by using 6 defense you are giving WAY more ice time to players at the bottom of the roster.

    I looked at 2017-18 and 2016-17

    Your #1 defenseman will play about 6% more than Connor McDavid.(1850 Klef or Nurse vs 1750 for CMD)

    Your #2 D will play as much as CMD; Sekera 1718 vs CMD 1732

    Your #3 and #4 D will play as much as Leon and Nuge. In 2017 it was Lars 1591, Leon 1498, Nuge 1450 and Russell 1442)

    Your #5 D will play as much as your 4th F (Benning 1261 vs Lucic 1308)

    In the past two years the Oilers haven’t had consistent 6/7/8 guys due to health (Sekera) swaps (Davidson in for Auvituu), auditions (Bear) and demotions (Gryba) so it’s hard to get an exact trend.

    If you look at Gryba and Sekera together theyplayed 900 minutes.If you look at Auvituu giving way to Davidson and then to Bear they played 1200 minutes.

    The year before, Nurse played 750 but missed a bunch of time and Davidson played 430 so 1200 total.Gryba was the #7 and played 650.

    So best guess…

    #6D plays 1000 minutes which is more than much of our bottom 6 F’s (Cags, Jujhair, Jesse and Kass all between 850 and 900)

    #7 plays 800 minutes or if the role isn’t settled like last year, #7 450 (Auvituu)), #8 400 (Davidson), #9 335 (Bear) and #10 310 (Gryba).

    That’s a long way of saying as a guess for this year:
    -Klefbom and Larsson will affect the game (or have the chance to) as much as McDavid
    -Nurse and Russell will equal Drai and RNH
    -Sekera and Benning (roles are more settled this year) should play more than your ENTIRE second line (or more accurately forwards 4,5,6)

    Keegan Lowe will play 650 minutes, about the same as the #10 forward.And if you get a major injury he’ll play as much as Nuge.This role is way undervalued.

    Ethan Bear will play 400-500 minutes about the same amount as a mostly full time 4th liner like Hendricks and Slepy were.

    If I ran a team I’d invest 20 million in my top 4 D and another 6 in my 5/6. I’d then give NHL deals to real NHL defensemen for spots 7 and 8 cause they will play a lot.

    I’d pay less for F’s 11-12-13-14 as they just don’t play enough to affect the game over the course of a season.

    This is a very good post. Agreed on all points, especially the last one.

    Sadly PC doesn’t seem to agree with this sort of logic.

  91. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I like you both plenty. No hate from me.

    I do have a strong dislike, almost a loathing for the concept of haters.

  92. Jordan says:

    knighttown,

    Great Post. Very thoughtful.

    I’m curious about where injuries happen, where that player plays in the lineup and severity impact those minutes. My mind thinks that would be significant, but I’m wondering if it wouldn’t just all come out as a wash.

    I would guess that if you could model player durability, you could in theory use it as a variable to help information salary negotiations, and assign appropriate salary value for a given player.

    I wonder how much that would impact perceived value of a player like Klefbom whose developing a significant injury history? Is his contract still a bargain then?

  93. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    stephen sheps:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I like you both plenty. No hate from me.

    I do have a strong dislike, almost a loathing for the concept of haters.

    – I think/hope Wood took my approval of his post and shot in the right manner.

    – I just feel I’m better than Woodguy, you know what I’m saying, so he hate me. When I’m right, and prove him wrong he hate me: that’s all I’m sayin’. It comes from the heart

  94. Primetime says:

    DSP just re-signed with Washington for $1 million x 1…and we gave the Drake what?

    All other teams seem to have figured out you need to squeeze the bottom of the roster for dollars to pay the impact positions (as described by KT above). Everyone except Chia, who keeps adding $100K here and $200K there (and $2.5 mill on a question mark in goal…).

    Why does he not seem to see what every other competent GM in the league sees?

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think/hope Wood took my approval of his post and shot in the right manner.

    – I just feel I’m better than Woodguy, you know what I’m saying, so he hate me.When I’m right, and prove him wrong he hate me: that’s all I’m sayin’.It comes from the heart

    I bet your emotion for me would be more of contempt than hate if Hall hadn’t won the Hart and Lucic scored more than 2 goals in 2018.

    Alas, here we are.

  96. stephen sheps says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think/hope Wood took my approval of his post and shot in the right manner.

    – I just feel I’m better than Woodguy, you know what I’m saying, so he hate me.When I’m right, and prove him wrong he hate me: that’s all I’m sayin’.It comes from the heart

    I’m actually laughing pretty hard at this one, Kinger. Well played.

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Primetime:
    DSP just re-signed with Washington for $1 million x 1…and we gave the Drake what?

    All other teams seem to have figured out you need to squeeze the bottom of the roster for dollars to pay the impact positions (as described by KT above).Everyone except Chia, who keeps adding $100K here and $200K there (and $2.5 mill on a question mark in goal…).

    Why does he not seem to see what every other competent GM in the league sees?

    The Drake contract is one that people who don’t understand the value of cap dollars say “its 1.9% of the cap, it doesn’t matter!!”

    The reality is that is causes a team to not be able to maximize the talent in another roster spot, so it’s 2 under performing roster spots, not one.

    It’s a big damn deal to give $1.5×2 to a player who by 95% of the methods used to evaluate NHL players comes out as either “tweener” or “not a NHL player”

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stephen sheps,

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I was at the Vegas Posse’s inaugural home game.

    True story.

  99. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think/hope Wood took my approval of his post and shot in the right manner.

    – I just feel I’m better than Woodguy, you know what I’m saying, so he hate me.When I’m right, and prove him wrong he hate me: that’s all I’m sayin’.It comes from the heart

    Your humility is refreshing, sir.

  100. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If the Oilers have stable goalering and reasonable health in the heart of the order they will be a playoff team.

    Vegas is the poster child for good coaching and a bought in team.

    Sure they are shy of scoring wingers but no team has it all. Good coaching allows players to find their best games which helps.

    The core players are a year older, stronger and more experienced.

    It comes down to Talbot and Koskinen and the new assistants motivating and engaging the players and getting the youth to buy in and play to strengths.

    ——————
    I don’t buy having babies as a reason to fail for Talbot, if it was. It’s not like having babies hasn’t happened to players before.

    I had 4 in 5.5 years, it was rough, but I also don’t make 4M US which could mean a quiet place to sleep and 24/7 help for mom. She wouldn’t even have to cook or clean if she didn’t want to.

    They don’t live in a normal person’s world. Not that I’m normal, if you know what I mean.

  101. Alpine says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The Drake contract is one that people who don’t understand the value of cap dollars say “its 1.9% of the cap, it doesn’t matter!!”

    The reality is that is causes a team to not be able to maximize the talent in another roster spot, so it’s 2 under performing roster spots, not one.

    It’s a big damn deal to give $1.5×2 to a player who by 95% of the methods used to evaluate NHL players comes out as either “tweener” or “not a NHL player”

    I think the Oilers think Drake will be the their 3LW. That’s the only justification I can come up with for that contract. I think they have him penciled in with Strome on line 3.

    It’s similar to Kassian’s deal. Of course Todd has rarely kept Kass in the top 9 since his extension so not sure what they were thinking there. Kass did at least have some history of scoring at a middle six rate. Drake’s not even close, lol.

  102. Admiral Ackbar says:

    That projected lineup as is looks bloody horrible. Most of this lineup looks like it either fell into Chia’s lap or is the result of loss of value trades. #prayformojo

  103. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The Drake contract is one that people who don’t understand the value of cap dollars say “its 1.9% of the cap, it doesn’t matter!!”

    The reality is that is causes a team to not be able to maximize the talent in another roster spot, so it’s 2 under performing roster spots, not one.

    It’s a big damn deal to give $1.5×2 to a player who by 95% of the methods used to evaluate NHL players comes out as either “tweener” or “not a NHL player”

    I would argue it from another direction. Caggiula’s contract tells us he is in fact a top 9F this coming season. The Oilers are betting on Caggiula.

  104. Professor Q says:

    dustrock: For sure.Did we ever look at Talbot’s home vs road stats?Would not be shocked at him struggling with 1 year old twins.And would not hold it against him.

    I think Edmonton as a whole did better on the road. They did poorly at home (shame for the season). Weren’t they the first and only team to beat Vegas, and/or at (Vegas’) home?

  105. Primetime says:

    Lowetide: I would argue it from another direction. Caggiula’s contract tells us he is in fact a top 9F this coming season. The Oilers are betting on Caggiula.

    Well, whether it was initially the plan or not, they are pot committed now. No more dollars left for a legitimate top 9F

  106. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: I would argue it from another direction. Caggiula’s contract tells us he is in fact a top 9F this coming season. The Oilers are betting on Caggiula.

    Which stinks cause I was really hoping for a lot of improvement this year through a decent Drake replacement. No Drake team is better. A good third line player that elevates teammates. Team gets double better

  107. Doug McLachlan says:

    Side: Talbot was a dad during 2016-2017 season where he did really well.

    I don’t see how his twins would suddenly become a problem for him which caused his performance to drop in the 2017-2018 season.

    Going out on a limb here but I’m guessing you don’t have kids or you don’t remember them being that young – I know I’ve purged a lot of the “rougher” memories.

    Infants, especially newborns, are amazing but in so many ways caring for newborns is actually easier than when they get just a little older. They get mobile. They do NOT follow the course curriculum. They do NOT conform to the clock or the calendar or (and this is really important) what they did under the EXACT SAME SITUATION just the day before. The “new normal” is a rapidly changing situation with young kids – twins, even moreso because they are doing it together (or they aren’t).

    While all this is going on your support network goes back to their lives. Just when life gets more challenging, grandma and grandpa and aunties and uncles and friends who are all helping out in the first few weeks when, quite frankly the job is not that hard (feed, change, sleep, repeat), disappear.

    Frequent poster here, dustrock, suggested that the Talbot twins may have been a factor in Cam’s sub-par season. It may even, IMHO, account for the otherwise inexplicable difference between the Oilers’ home and away PK. When your best penalty killer is not getting woken at home up by kid 1 at 1:30am and then kid 2 at 2:45am and then kid 1 again (you get the idea) maybe he relishes the idea of sleeping in a bed where nobody is waking up for the latest crisis in the baby room.

    Fortunately the kids turn two in October and anyone who has had kids will tell you that the terrific twos is a much less stressed…oh, it’s the “terrible twos”?… oh…oh dear….

  108. Woogie63 says:

    PTO for Yak?

  109. Lowetide says:

    Primetime: Well, whether it was initiallythe plan or not, they are pot committed now.No more dollars left for a legitimate top 9F

    Well, it also tells you there’s an opportunity. If you believe Caggiula can hold the 3L job, then this is ascension in a reasoned fashion. I think they are choosing the wrong guy, so quietly make my list of possible replacements at 3L. Jujhar Khaira, Pontus Aberg, Tyler Benson, Nolan Vesey.

    I think Caggiula’s signing makes it quite possible we see Benson with the Oilers by Valentine’s day. We’ll see who they sign but we are looking at a guy like Benson as a completely reasonable bet to play in the NHL this coming season.

  110. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock,

    PK with Oilers at home and Talbot doing the dad bot thing x2 = 31st in NHL

    PK with Oilers on road and Talbot getting a good night’s sleep = 1st in NHL

    Correlation is not causation but…

  111. commonfan29 says:

    Alpine: I think the Oilers think Drake will be the their 3LW. That’s the only justification I can come up with for that contract.

    Similar to how they paid Leon to be an elite 2C even though he hadn’t really shown he could do it long-term yet.

    Years ago when the Oil didn’t have any impact talent, my Dad had a line about how maybe our only option was to give Horcoff star money and tell him to earn it.

    I liked that idea much more as a joke than as an actual managerial philosophy.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Primetime:
    DSP just re-signed with Washington for $1 million x 1…and we gave the Drake what?

    All other teams seem to have figured out you need to squeeze the bottom of the roster for dollars to pay the impact positions (as described by KT above).Everyone except Chia, who keeps adding $100K here and $200K there (and $2.5 mill on a question mark in goal…).

    Why does he not seem to see what every other competent GM in the league sees?

    I would suggest we evaluate DSP in the same light that we hope our GM evaluates players (without regard to unsustainable small sample playoff heaters – something our GM didn’t seem to do with Drai).

    DSP is every bit as bad as Caggulia (his relative possession and goal share metrics are in the same range of awful) and he scores less (less points, half the goals). He’s older than Drake and recently bought out.

    Drake actually probably deserves a more substantial contract that DSP.

  113. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR,

    I know this will bring tons comments from the Faulk haters,

    Disliking a hockey’s player’s results is not “hating” him.

    The introductionof “haters” has brought the general discourse of this place and others down more than a few notches.

    Person 1: “I’ve evaluated this player’s results and found he hurts the team far more than he helps them”

    Person 2; “Hater!”

    Hate is an emotion.

    The best evaluation is done without emotion. (Which is why NHL teams should have non-staff evaluation as a part of theirs, but that’s another subject.)

    Haters.

    I fucking hate “Haters”

    For a few years there I though hey Faulks numbers suck but then you probably shouldn’t be playing him 24 min a night and maybe there may be a player there. Well his penalty killing time went away and his even strength time decreased a bit and he doesn’t look any better.
    Player best to stay away from. Don’t know how much more you can protect that player

  114. Munny says:

    LT said…

    •It feels like the Oilers have something in their back pocket, a Lucic plus 2019 first-round pick for

    I like how you left this open. And you’re right, it sure does feel like there’s a ball waiting to drop.

    I think worst case scenario is something like Lucic + 1st for Faulk (type).

    I think best case scenario is something like Lucic + 4th for Faulk.

    Probably come in somewhere in between… Hopefully. Retaining of course would affect both sides of the ledger. I’d rather give a 2nd and not retain, than a 4th and retain.

    Do others here feel the same way? Would you rather retain or give up a better pick/prospect?

  115. leadfarmer says:

    So Trouba is looking for Draisatl money.
    And people thought contracts weren’t going to get out hand

  116. RonnieB says:

    Primetime:
    DSP just re-signed with Washington for $1 million x 1…and we gave the Drake what?

    All other teams seem to have figured out you need to squeeze the bottom of the roster for dollars to pay the impact positions (as described by KT above).Everyone except Chia, who keeps adding $100K here and $200K there (and $2.5 mill on a question mark in goal…).

    Why does he not seem to see what every other competent GM in the league sees?

    While i agree with your general thesis and agree that Caggiula is probably overpaid in his new contract, the DSP comparison doesn’t really help your case.
    In the past 2 seasons DSP played 128 games with combined 11 Goals and 25 points; during the same 2 seasons, Caggiula played 127 games with combined 20 goals and 38 points.
    I would venture a guess that if DSP didn’t have such an anomalous post-season he would still be walking the streets looking for another minimum salary contract.

  117. Primetime says:

    Lowetide: Well, it also tells you there’s an opportunity. If you believe Caggiula can hold the 3L job, then this is ascension in a reasoned fashion. I think they are choosing the wrong guy, so quietly make my list of possible replacements at 3L. Jujhar Khaira, Pontus Aberg, Tyler Benson, Nolan Vesey.

    I think Caggiula’s signing makes it quite possible we see Benson with the Oilers by Valentine’s day. We’ll see who they sign but we are looking at a guy like Benson as a completely reasonable bet to play in the NHL this coming season.

    Couldn’t agree more LT. In fact, despite the audition last year, I firmly believe Benson makes it as a regular on this team faster than Kailer (albeit with a lower ceiling on the third or fourth line).

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    •It feels like the Oilers have something in their back pocket, a Lucic plus 2019 first-round pick for

    I like how you left this open. And you’re right, it sure does feel like there’s a ball waiting to drop.

    I think worst case scenario is something like Lucic + 1st for Faulk (type).

    I think best case scenario is something like Lucic + 4th for Faulk.

    Probably come in somewhere in between… Hopefully.Retaining of course would affect both sides of the ledger.I’d rather give a 2nd and not retain, than a 4th and retain.

    Do others here feel the same way?Would you rather retain or give up a better pick/prospect?

    I’m confident Lucic has more value than Faulk. Reputation goes a long way in pro sports and particularly the NHL.

    Lucic was the premiere power forward in the league and remains a fearsome opponent. There are good arguments that the Oiler effect diminished his play as with many before.

    Faulk never had an established rep and now carries rumours of conditioning. Lucic is a player that brings a strong leadership model because of his attitude and professionalism.

    That trade would be straight up. The cash outlay for Lucic is similar to Faulk’s. The Canes want gritensity, they want to move Faulk and Skinner. The cap hit helps the Canes hit the floor, second last in spending last year.

    I wouldn’t be surprised at a bigger deal between them, although PC likes one for ones it seems.

  119. Primetime says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would suggest we evaluate DSP in the same light that we hope our GM evaluates players (without regard to unsustainable small sample playoff heaters – something our GM didn’t seem to do with Drai).

    DSP is every bit as bad as Caggulia (his relative possession and goal share metrics are in the same range of awful) and he scores less (less points, half the goals).He’s older than Drake and recently bought out.

    Drake actually probably deserves a more substantial contract that DSP.

    Don’t disagree that DSP may well be worse than Drake…although when comparing their numbers, one spent time with McDavid/Draisatl and the other did not get the same quality of line mates.

    My point is more about Chia…RFAs are not being qualified all over the league and then signing for lower contracts or term. Even playoff heroes like DSP are getting less from GMs who have the potential of recency bias from a Stanley Cup win…Chia has no such excuse and is still overpaying….

  120. pts2pndr says:

    bleedingorange97:
    First post but longtime follower and listener… great job by the way all of ON and the fans. Anyways what about bringing yak back on a 1yr/1mill deal. Put him on the right side with mcdavid or drai and hope he gets that scoring touch back. Shifty guy like Samsonov in the 06 cup run and could be used properly with sheltered minutes and special teams and shootout times. Just a thought but I always loved the kid and his passion. Low risk high reward

    You do know we have McLellan as head coach!

  121. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99:
    Here’s the rub. There’s no way we’re in the playoffs with the team we have,. Right now it’s looking like we’re out by the end of February at best.

    You can’t say a turnaround by Talbot alone does it, as the difference from last season to the previous was goals against and we haven’t added the support players that we gave up last summer that at least partially caused that increase.

    So I’d think there’s a better chance Talbot gets shellshocked again than rebounds with the forwards blowing coverage and the lack of forwards that can affect opposition shot quality, especially with Nuge, our best defensive forward, going walkbout on wing for offense again to start the season.

    Half-believing these Lucic rumors, I’d say he’s moved to an already agreed deal on July 1st after the bonus payment goes through, that gives us the cap space to sign Nurse and add some better NHL forwardsto a team devoid of them outside the top 4 players.

    I don’t buy the Talbot shell shocked narrative. The fact that his save percentage increased at the end of the season speaks to this. He played better in the last third of the season when the team was playing worse and Sekera was a tire fire. Talbot was awful to start the season and that’s on him.

  122. Munny says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Oh it could very well be straight up. I’m not sure I can allow myself to be that optimistic though. Kind of like going to a movie with high expectations.

    But if it came down to retaining or adding a pick… which way would you go?

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t buy the Talbot shell shocked narrative. The fact that his save percentage increased at the end of the season speaks to this. He played better in the last third of the season when the team was playing worse and Sekera was a tire fire. Talbot was awful to start the season and that’s on him.

    I concur. So no re-up for Cam.

    2 for 3 bad starts as an Oiler. PC if a fool knows better than that.

  124. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Oh it could very well be straight up. I’m not sure I can allow myself to be that optimistic though. Kind of like going to a movie with high expectations.

    But if it came down to retaining or adding a pick… which way would you go?

    Let’s say I’m GM. I’ve done what was mandated as well as possible because every team knew the deal.

    I would now take the Sakic approach. I have a player you want (and I think there are teams that want Lucic) so I need what I want.

    So I wouldn’t offer to retain or add. The cash vs cap hit is the add. Or so PC says

  125. Side says:

    Doug McLachlan: Going out on a limb here but I’m guessing you don’t have kids or you don’t remember them being that young – I know I’ve purged a lot of the “rougher” memories.

    Infants, especially newborns, are amazing but in so many ways caring for newborns is actually easier than when they get just a little older.They get mobile.They do NOT follow the course curriculum.They do NOT conform to the clock or the calendar or (and this is really important) what they did under the EXACT SAME SITUATION just the day before.The “new normal” is a rapidly changing situation with young kids – twins, even moreso because they are doing it together (or they aren’t).

    While all this is going on your support network goes back to their lives.Just when life gets more challenging, grandma and grandpa and aunties and uncles and friends who are all helping out in the first few weeks when, quite frankly the job is not that hard (feed, change, sleep, repeat), disappear.

    Frequent poster here, dustrock, suggested that the Talbot twins may have been a factor in Cam’s sub-par season.It may even, IMHO, account for the otherwise inexplicable difference between the Oilers’ home and away PK.When your best penalty killer is not getting woken at home up by kid 1 at 1:30am and then kid 2 at 2:45am and then kid 1 again (you get the idea) maybe he relishes the idea of sleeping in a bed where nobody is waking up for the latest crisis in the baby room.

    Fortunately the kids turn two in October and anyone who has had kids will tell you that the terrific twos is a much less stressed…oh, it’s the “terrible twos”?… oh…oh dear….

    I feel like I am the only one who hasn’t experienced kids like you described. All 6 kids sleep well, and were not a complete pain. Terrible twos didn’t exist. Not all kids turn their parents into zombies that cannot function in their day to day.

    Is Talbot the only athlete in history to have children? I can’t seem to recall another athlete who had a such a drop in performance that is directly correlated to having kids.

    Nevermind the fact that Talbot wasn’t home for all 82 games, so it wouldn’t explain his road performance.

    The other day I caught about 20 mins of the show “Hockey Wives” and one of them was talking about the life a hockey wife. She said she basically knows her husband is always on the road and the season can be tough, so she fully commits to the “full time mom” role. Wouldn’t surprised if a lot of moms just let the dads sleep to take care of sleepless kids so dad can be rested for the game.

    My explanation for Talbot’s performance is the same as the rest of the team – they were just off; hit by injury and illness and lost their confidence and swagger.

    I believe the 2017-2018 Oilers year is an outlier, as was the 2016-2017 Oilers and the real Oilers are somewhere inbetween, kids or no kids.

  126. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    pts2pndr: You do know we have McLellan as head coach!

    Only for the first month of the regular season.

  127. Scungilli Slushy says:

    International soccer needs a diving rule, reeediculous.

  128. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m confident Lucic has more value than Faulk. Reputation goes a long way in pro sports and particularly the NHL.

    Lucic was the premiere power forward in the league and remains a fearsome opponent. There are good arguments that the Oiler effect diminished his play as with many before.

    Faulk never had an established rep and now carries rumours of conditioning. Lucic is a player that brings a strong leadership model because of his attitude and professionalism.

    That trade would be straight up. The cash outlay for Lucic is similar to Faulk’s. The Canes want gritensity, they want to move Faulk and Skinner. The cap hit helps the Canes hit the floor, second last in spending last year.

    I wouldn’t be surprised at a bigger deal between them, although PC likes one for ones it seems.

    Faulk scored 15 goals or
    more three years in a row. I guarantee his reputation is better than his actual value. I remember two years ago the chatter was Faulk straight up for Hall. It makes the Larsson deal look good. However, I don’t think I have read a single positive thing about Faulk this offseason. Even on the Canes blog.

  129. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Side: I feel like I am the only one who hasn’t experienced kids like you described. All 6 kids sleep well, and were not a complete pain. Terrible twos didn’t exist. Not all kids turn their parents into zombies that cannot function in their day to day.

    Is Talbot the only athlete in history to have children? I can’t seem to recall another athlete who had a such a drop in performance that is directly correlated to having kids.

    Nevermind the fact that Talbot wasn’t home for all 82 games, so it wouldn’t explain his road performance.

    The other day I caught about 20 mins of the show “Hockey Wives” and one of them was talking about the life a hockey wife. She said she basically knows her husband is always on the road and the season can be tough, so she fully commits to the “full time mom” role. Wouldn’t surprised if a lot of moms just let the dads sleep to take care of sleepless kids so dad can be rested for the game.

    My explanation for Talbot’s performance is the same as the rest of the team – they were just off; hit by injury and illness and lost their confidence and swagger.

    I believe the 2017-2018 Oilers year is an outlier, as was the 2016-2017 Oilers and the real Oilers are somewhere inbetween, kids or no kids.

    Any Hockey wife committed to being a stay at home mom if their husband is on a multi million dollar contract is being a bit misleading .

    It’s different for a player like Marsecheault who had nothing until recently and his story.

  130. Scungilli Slushy says:

    It’s not like rich hockey players wite’s don’t get the scenario. Husband in NHL getting paid, I don’t have to work if I don’t want to.

    Would you work if you didn’t have to and had something very important to do like raising your children? Some might, my guess is most people wouldn’t.

  131. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m confident Lucic has more value than Faulk. Reputation goes a long way in pro sports and particularly the NHL.

    Lucic was the premiere power forward in the league and remains a fearsome opponent. There are good arguments that the Oiler effect diminished his play as with many before.

    Faulk never had an established rep and now carries rumours of conditioning. Lucic is a player that brings a strong leadership model because of his attitude and professionalism.

    That trade would be straight up. The cash outlay for Lucic is similar to Faulk’s. The Canes want gritensity, they want to move Faulk and Skinner. The cap hit helps the Canes hit the floor, second last in spending last year.

    I wouldn’t be surprised at a bigger deal between them, although PC likes one for ones it seems.

    Anyone thats watched Lucic play last year does not say, hey I want that on my team. We’re stuck with him until buyout

  132. knighttown says:

    I’m quite worried that the Hunwick/Sheary deal sheds light on the true cost of unloading Lucic.

    Matt Hunwick is making 2.25 for this year and next. They were willing to give away a nice young winger on a decent contract 3M x2 just to unload Hunwick.

    The 79M cap may just be the straw that broke the Lucic deals back.

    I can’t imagine the cost if unloading Hunwick costs Sheary.

    Puljujarvi would be my guess.

    Edit- or of course another terrible contract

  133. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I can’t garner enough emotion for your tripe to even dislike you let alone hate.

    OK just kiss and make up!

  134. Munny says:

    Scungilli Slushy: So I wouldn’t offer to retain or add.

    I’m not saying offer. No GM would do that anyways.

    I’m saying that if the only way to make the deal is to retain or add a pick, which would you prefer to do?

  135. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: Anyone thats watched Lucic play last year does not say, hey I want that on my team.We’re stuck with him until buyout

    Well, if the VOR golf post from the other night is truthful this post is completely wrong.

  136. Munny says:

    Jaxon: I actually think Nurse’s bridge may be in the $4.16667M area to match Klefbom and Larsson, and a long term deal may fall more in the $5-6M range.

    I haven’t studied this in-depth enough to know for sure, but the ratio between bridge salary and long-term salary looks completely out here.

  137. Munny says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    International soccer needs a diving rule, reeediculous.

    They do have one: a yellow card. A Korean player was assessed a yellow, today actually, for “simulation” (in the box).

  138. nelson88 says:

    Sekera, Lucic, 2019 2nd and B prospect for Skinner and Faulk after loochs bonus is paid

    Carolina gets “change” in playing style they want and save about $4M in actual salary this season.

    Oilers get a small savings in cap hit for 2018, shorten the term and get better handedness balance

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Primetime: Don’t disagree that DSP may well be worse than Drake…although when comparing their numbers, one spent time with McDavid/Draisatl and the other did not get the same quality of line mates.

    My point is more about Chia…RFAs are not being qualified all over the league and then signing for lower contracts or term.Even playoff heroes like DSP are getting less from GMs who have the potential of recency bias from a Stanley Cup win…Chia has no such excuse and is still overpaying….

    In this case, the player cited actually got a substantial raise, almost 75%.

  140. Munny says:

    nelson88: Skinner

    Skinner is being real sticky on his no move clause. Has reputedly shot down at least one trade already this week. He will only go where he wants to.

  141. leadfarmer says:

    Munny: Well, if the VOR golf post from the other night is truthful this post is completely wrong.

    No idea what you are talking about.

    I doubt too many teams are lining up for him at 6 mil a year. At least in a year after his salary bonus is paid he only costs 4 mil per so some team that wants size might take a go

  142. deardylan says:

    Who Will Stop the Rain?

    Good men through the ages,
    Tried to find the sun;
    And I wonder, still I wonder…

    …how the father of flannel shirts and bayou grunge look got the idea to ramp his voice so well in rhythm with the drums at 0.28 and 0.33? Damn! If you get lost he gets you home!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIPan-rEQJA

    This song will forever be etched and sketched on my broken heart and helped me get through the summer of ’93.

    At 18 I broke up with my true love that I was planning on marrying. All seems a bit funny now although at the time it was solid pain. Heard it through the grapevine (through her best friend) that she was bringing her new love to her graduation, not me. This is the end, my final friend, the end.

    Anyone else have their heart broken into infinite pieces?

    Couldn’t eat, couldn’t sleep, couldn’t stand wakin’ up for another day, sleep was a comfort… just had that terrible pain in my heart to feel all day and everyday.

    So for next 8 months I played CCR greatest hits and Bruce’s Tunnel of Love on repeat. If they could feel that bad, I would have a chance to get over my broken heart. Was never suicidal although I felt both these albums slowly crazyglued the pieces back together and make my life worth living.

    Saw the forwards playin’,
    How we cheered for more.
    The crowd had rushed together

    Fogerty, Springsteen and Robbie Robertson @ Hall of Fame
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekw13v8Et7U&frags=pl%2Cwn

    PS. Here is the full album when you need to borrow some soul after a broken record, heart, decade:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TA3KC7M3a0&frags=pl%2Cwn

  143. Oilman99 says:

    leadfarmer:
    So Trouba is looking for Draisatl money.
    And people thought contracts weren’t going to get out hand

    Trouba is dreaming, or needs to get a new agent, no chance in hell, will be sitting in the stands for a long time.

  144. pts2pndr says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Only for the first month of the regular season.

    That may be overly optomistic! The organization may wait until the season is sewered. I hope that you are correct!

  145. Oilman99 says:

    leadfarmer: No idea what you are talking about.

    I doubt too many teams are lining up for him at 6 mil a year.At least in a year after his salary bonus is paid he only costs 4 mil per so some team that wants size might take a go

    Pay him his bonus, and retain up to $2mil in salary, and there will be more than one team interested. An extra $4mil of cap space would be a god send. We can always HOPE.

  146. Professor Q says:

    Oilman99: Pay him his bonus, and retain up to $2mil in salary, and there will be more than one team interested. An extra $4mil of cap space would be a god send. We can always HOPE.

    Every time I read a recyclable container and see HDPE, I read it as HOPE and cry a little inside with memories.

  147. stephen sheps says:

    deardylan,

    I dated a girl in my 20s for, well, most of my 20s. It was your classic hopeless romantic formative relationship. We thought we were characters out of born to run, took trips to the badlands and actually took a detour through Nebraska on a US road trip just because of that record’s name.

    Yet it wasn’t until about 4 years ago, when I was in my early-mid 30s and coming out the other side of both my cancer battle and the hardest breakup of my life (different woman than the first part of this story) that Tunnel of Love started to make sense. For the longest time I could not get past the gated drums and the synths and production that sounded distinctly of its vintage. But then one day it hit me. The lyrics of tougher than the rest, the simple driving beat of brilliant disguise, the perfection that is two faces. I think Darkness will always be my favourite Springsteen album, but Tunnel of Love is a very close second, one that I still listen to regularly and has clearly influenced a whole new generation of songwriters. Listen to Lost in the Dream and especially A Deeper Understanding by The War on Drugs and you’ll hear Tunnel of Love breathing new life 30 years later.

  148. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    pts2pndr: That may be overly optomistic! The organization may wait until the season is sewered. I hope that you are correct!

    What can I say … I’m just an optimistic kind of guy. Haha. Hahahaha. Where IS that effing sarcasm emoji? It has to be around here someplace. Maybe the effing Roomba sucked it up. Be back in a sec … gotta check the Roomba.

  149. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer: Anyone thats watched Lucic play last year does not say, hey I want that on my team.We’re stuck with him until buyout

    I get what you’re saying. But it isn’t his scoring that makes him have value. It’s his rep as a beast that can play basically. Which is why PC acquired him. It hasn’t worked out, but teams are looking for the archetype still. DVP for example. The playoffs are not like the reg season as it stands.

    Lucic >>>>>>>>>>>>>DVP

  150. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I get what you’re saying. But it isn’t his scoring that makes him have value. It’s his rep as a beast that can play basically. Which is why PC acquired him. It hasn’t worked out, but teams are looking for the archetype still. DVP for example. The playoffs are not like the reg season as it stands.

    Lucic >>>>>>>>>>>>>DVP

    DSP at 1×1 is far greater than Lucic at 6×5.
    No way in hell Carolina trades Faulk for Lucic straight up. Even if you think Lucic is the better player 4.8×2 is much better than 6×5.

  151. Scungilli Slushy says:

    nelson88:
    Sekera,Lucic, 2019 2nd and B prospect for Skinner and Faulk after loochs bonus is paid

    Carolina gets “change” in playing style they want and save about $4M in actual salary this season.

    Oilers get a small savings in cap hit for 2018, shorten the term and get better handedness balance

    Straight up no need to add. Cash is king in any business, especially one cash starved. Bills are paid in dollars not cap.

  152. who says:

    If the Oilers want to get rid of Lucic without retaining they should offer him and Talbot to Carolina for Darling and something. That’s the only way. Take back another bad contract with less term .

  153. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: DSP at 1×1 is far greater than Lucic at 6×5.
    No way in hell Carolina trades Faulk for Lucic straight up.Even if you think Lucic is the better player 4.8×2 is much better than 6×5.

    They aren’t paying 6M in dollars. Lucic had far more points than DVP and is a top 6 guy historically, DVP has never been and has baggage.

    I’m not saying Luc will move, but like the Oilers thought he has a lot of appeal to a team that regards their players as wussies. Carolina’s owner has said as much.

  154. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who:
    If the Oilers want to get rid of Lucic without retaining they should offer him and Talbot to Carolina for Darling and something. That’s the only way. Take back another bad contract with less term .

    They have openly disliked Faulk and Skinner. Like the OIlers do to their players on the out. The value is lowered for them, more so Faulk who has had weak seasons. Skinner can at least pot goals still.

    Buy low right?

  155. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: No idea what you are talking about.

    I doubt too many teams are lining up for him at 6 mil a year.At least in a year after his salary bonus is paid he only costs 4 mil per so some team that wants size might take a go

    As part of my study/research into scouting I ended up golfing with a big chunk of a particular teams scouting staff.

    My partner, we were playing best ball, was an executive with the team. He was quite open about how his team had offered up a player for Lucic in a 1 for 1 trade and got turned down. They were going to flip him after July 1st. But I got no info on that from my contact. He left me with the impression that he couldn’t believe the Oilers didn’t bite on their trade offer.

    Now since then we’ve heard Lucic is available and 1-1 trades are possible from the MSM. We all think that is insane. But we watched Lucic play last season.

    Interestingly, this team didn’t qualify the player they were offering the Oilers for Lucic and aren’t negotiating with him. They appear to have cut him free. Maybe tough negotiating maybe he needs a last chance Texaco. Or maybe they hope it will be a wake up call.

    I have been assuming they were going to flip Lucic (with sweeteners) for Jeff Skinner. Rumour has it Skinner, who has a NMC, has zero interest in Edmonton. I have no idea what teams he would go to but if Carolina is as interested in Lucic as has been (again) rumoured then Edmonton needs to find them and see what value they can extract. Or make a trade directly with Carolina but with Skinner off the table Faulk seems the likely target.

    I personally think Lucic has negative value. But hockey is an odd industry and reputation really matters to some GMs.

    I’d bet a straight across Lucic for Faulk is doable specifically because while Faulk has more value his reputation sucks. Lucic has less value as a hockey player but is a stand up guy. I am just not sure Lucic would waive to go to Carolina.

  156. VOR says:

    Scungilli Slushy: They have openly disliked Faulk and Skinner. Like the OIlers do to their players on the out. The value is lowered for them, more so Faulk who has had weak seasons. Skinner can at least pot goals still.

    Buy low right?

    Every one knows I am contrarian to the core. If I had a Silent Bob I’d be tempted to take Faulk and see if I could rehabilitate him. Sounds like a good job for Trent Yawney.

  157. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ok, for the sake of argument the deal is Lucic for Faulk, is that a net positive?

  158. deardylan says:

    stephen sheps,

    stephen sheps:
    deardylan,

    I dated a girl in my 20s for, well, most of my 20s. It was your classic hopeless romantic formative relationship. We thought we were characters out of born to run, took trips to the badlands and actually took a detour through Nebraska on a US road trip just because of that record’s name.

    Yet it wasn’t until about 4 years ago, when I was in my early-mid 30s and coming out the other side of both my cancer battle and the hardest breakup of my life (different woman than the first part of this story) that Tunnel of Love started to make sense. For the longest time I could not get past the gated drums and the synths and production that sounded distinctly of its vintage. But then one day it hit me. The lyrics of tougher than the rest, the simple driving beat of brilliant disguise, the perfection that is two faces. I think Darkness will always be my favourite Springsteen album, but Tunnel of Love is a very close second, one that I still listen to regularly and has clearly influenced a whole new generation of songwriters. Listen to Lost in the Dream and especially A Deeper Understanding by The War on Drugs and you’ll hear Tunnel of Love breathing new life 30 years later.

    Appreciate the heartful sharing stephen sheps. Cancer battle and breakup – damn. Glad Tunnel of Love kept you company during those hard days and harder nights.

    Looking forward to checking out your recommendations of Lost in the Dream and A Deeper Understanding.

    Yeah Bruce has been the soundtrack of my life since 1990. Love that you “took a detour through Nebraska on a US road trip just because of that record’s name!” haha. I did something similar with Vincent VanGogh in France and Nietzsche mountain walks but never did that because of Bruce yet although I am inspired now. Like many Bruce albums the first time I hear them I say this is terrible and then by the 50 play on a roadtrip I memorize the lyrics and go deep deep deeper into the musical abyss.

    The song that always sticks in my head lately as I search for jobs in Toronto is “I’m Going Down” 😉 and also when I read the breaking news headlines I hear the harmonica of “Ghost of Tom Joad” kick in. Look forward to LT connecting more Springsteen theme songs to Oilers reality in the future like the happy beat of “Out In The Street”.

    Goodnight from T.O.

  159. pitlickdinner says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    woud you expect Tavares to feel the same way? these are people with motivations and personalities, not just nameless wives.

  160. who says:

    VOR: Every one knows I am contrarian to the core. If I had a Silent Bob I’d be tempted to take Faulk and see if I could rehabilitate him. Sounds like a good job for Trent Yawney.

    I hope you 2 guys are right. We’ll probably have to wait till after July 1 to find out. Maybe he has a trade in the bag for Lucic.
    If he doesn’t, and if he really turned down a 1 for 1 deal for an RFA that he doesn’t even have to qualify, then Chia should be fired on the spot.

  161. who says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Ok, for the sake of argument the deal is Lucic for Faulk, is that a net positive?

    It’s a huge positive.
    2×4.8 is better than 6×5. It really is that simple from an Oilers perspective

  162. Jaxon says:

    Was just doing some digging into Tristen Nielsen’s season. It seems he had a tough start and didn’t score for the first 10GP. If you take his last 39 games his number projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts would be about 24.926, which would be 5th among North Americans, and he had an injury in the middle of those games so there was probably one interrupted game and a few rusty ones after returning. He’s definitely small, but those numbers are better than Yamamoto’s 23.847, and just behind Draisaitl’s 25.927 and Eberle’s 25.118. Man, I really hope they’re in touch with this young man.

    Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts at Top6TOI
    Andrei Svechnikov 38.801
    Joel Farabee 32.232
    Oliver Wahlstrom 28.788
    Jonathan Gruden 27.616
    Tristen Nielsen (last 39 GP) 24.926***
    Filip Zadina 23.902
    Serron Noel 23.696
    Jake Wise 22.054

  163. pitlickdinner says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    SCUNGILLI SLUSHY says:
    June 27, 2018 at 6:45 pm
    It’s not like rich hockey players wite’s don’t get the scenario. Husband in NHL getting paid, I don’t have to work if I don’t want to.

    Would you work if you didn’t have to and had something very important to do like raising your children? Some might, my guess is most people wouldn’t.

    —————————–

    would you expect Joe Thornton to feel the same way about raising his kid if the situation was reversed? i don’t think it’s fair to generalize here.

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon:
    Was just doing some digging into Tristen Nielsen’s season. It seems he had a tough start and didn’t score for the first 10GP. If you take his last 39 games his number projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts would be about 24.926, which would be 5th among North Americans, and he had an injury in the middle of those games so there was probably one interrupted game and a few rusty ones after returning. He’s definitely small, but those numbers are better than Yamamoto’s 23.847, and just behind Draisaitl’s 25.927 and Eberle’s 25.118. Man, I really hope they’re in touch with this young man.

    Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts at Top6TOI
    Andrei Svechnikov38.801
    Joel Farabee32.232
    Oliver Wahlstrom28.788
    Jonathan Gruden27.616
    Tristen Nielsen (last 39 GP)24.926***
    Filip Zadina23.902
    Serron Noel23.696
    Jake Wise22.054

    Seems like a really good bet.

  165. Ray says:

    I think the Talbot trade talk started because the Lucic trade in the bag has a goalie coming back.

    Based on nothing factual, i think that might be Riemer out of Florida.

    After July 1st
    Lucic, Strome, and Montoya
    For
    Riemer and Bjugstad

    Saves Florida a large $ amount on the Bjugstad deal (higher$ than cap) and Lucic at a 4.5 million per year….

  166. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’ll add my wild speculation to the fodder. Talbot and Lucic are traded to the Canes for Faulk and Darling. Chia has loaded up on goalie prospects in the last few weeks so I’m thinking he’s not thrilled with the idea of signing Talbot to an extension. It may also explain why he spent so much to get Koskinnen. He wanted someone he perceives as a 1B backup. Darling was a tire fire last year but he was actually pretty good prior to that. Wild speculation I know.

  167. godot10 says:

    RonnieB: While i agree with your general thesis and agree that Caggiula is probably overpaid in his new contract, the DSP comparison doesn’t really help your case.
    In the past 2 seasons DSP played 128 games with combined 11 Goals and 25 points; during the same 2 seasons, Caggiulaplayed 127 games with combined 20 goals and 38 points.
    I would venture a guess that if DSP didn’t have such an anomalous post-season he would still be walking the streets looking for another minimum salary contract.

    Take away the minutes and goals when Caggiula played with McDavid, when I believe he actually made McDavid’s goal share negative.

  168. rickithebear says:

    Milan Lucic:6’4” 236 Lb
    A height density of 3.11 Lb/In
    It requires anaerobic explosion to start that body.
    Or
    anticipatory pre movement.

    He switched trainers and would like to know the type of
    Changes T. Owens had him doing.
    We are questioning his ability to target the open space in net elevation & to receive passes this year.

    We know In bos & LA he averaged
    81gm 19g 31a 50p 1.64sh/gm 14.28sh%
    17evg 23eva 42evp
    2ppg 6ppa 8ppp

    Yr 1 edm
    82gm 23g 27a 50p. 2.13 sh/gm. 13.14sh%
    11evg 14eva 24evp
    12ppg 13ppa 25ppp

    3yr bos, LAK, Edm yr1 avg
    81gm 20g 30a 50p
    15evg 21eva 36evp
    5ppg 9ppa 14ppp

    Last year edm
    82gm 10g 24a 34p 1.79 sh/gm 6.8 sh%
    7evg 20eva 27 evp
    3ppg 4ppa 7ppp

    With his career 13.7 sh% he would have been
    82gm 20g 24a 44p
    14evg 20 Eva 34ppp
    6ppg 4ppa 10 ppp

    It is not unrealistic to expect a ounce back in SH%
    15-16g 21-23eva 36-39evp
    3ppg 5-6ppa 8-9ppp
    18g 26a 44p (Top 105 fwd; upper 4th; #102 fwd cap hit 4.75M
    to 19g 39a 48p ( Top 90 fwd; bottom 3rd; #87fwd cap hit 5M

    So people want to send him away @ 4.5M and eat 1.5m million

    The only trade I thought might be realistic would have been
    A lucic (6) Nurse (RFA) JP (.9-2.5M) for Letang (7.125) & Kessel (6.8)

    DeHaan can run PvP as a LD
    Last 2 yr
    Nurse 126gm 11evg 26eva 37evp +15
    DeHaan 11gm 5 evg 30 Eva 35 Evp +26; 126 gm translates to 5.5evg 33eva 38-39evp +28
    M. Cane predicts 1yr@ 1.6M
    Think we could get 2-3 heck of a lot cheaper than Nurse.

  169. rickithebear says:

    A combinatios
    Caggulia -Khaira – Aberg is 1.31 evgf/60 1.18 evga/60, a 3/4 line
    Caggulia -Khaira – Aberg is 2.48 evgf/60 1.77 evga/60
    Top end even offence and superior ga results. 2/3 line.

    16-17
    Pitlick +1.01 evg diff/60
    Eberle +1.13
    Mcdavid + 2.55
    Draisatl + 3.40
    RNH Even
    Lucic even
    Kassian even
    ——————-
    Letestu Even
    Lander -ve
    Pouliot -ve

    I really do not trust any of goal diff and Off results cause of the awful Eakins based OZ over pressure system Tmac ran in 17-18.

    16-17 is our players.

  170. who says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’ll add my wild speculation to the fodder. Talbot and Lucic are traded to the Canes for Faulk and Darling. Chia has loaded up on goalie prospects in the last few weeks so I’m thinking he’s not thrilled with the idea of signing Talbot to an extension. It may also explain why he spent so much to get Koskinnen. He wanted someone he perceives as a 1B backup. Darling was a tire fire last year but he was actually pretty good prior to that. Wild speculation I know.

    I was thinking along the same lines when I suggested the trade.

  171. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Hey everyone – have not posted here in a LONG time. Also watched almost none of the Oilers season this year. Started after the EDM-VAN game at the beginning of the season when the refs decided it was perfectly ok for that D%&*head Dorsett to hang all over, abuse and otherwise completely obstruct McDavid. Oh that and the apparent conspiracy by Bettman to hand VGK a Cup in their first year. Anyway… those are other issues – I am working them out nicely with a very understanding therapist!

    My post today concert an entirely nonscientific comment regarding Oiler salaries – in particular players like Caggiula and similar say Benning. If you quickly peruse the TSN “transactions list” (which I did this am) – it seems to me EVERY Oiler is overpaid compared to similar players around the league.

    I know this is not “news” to you all here. My point is, or question I suppose is – is this a management thing or a player/ player agent thing?

    We all criticize (mostly completely rightly) Chiarelli for bad moves (as I recently heard in a TV show I was watching a great quote that I think fits here, I will share “sphincter clinchingly bad”) I wonder if there isn’t a systemic bias – players just WILL NOT sign in EDM unless there is a “tax”, in the form of a money, term, movement clause for example.

    Anyway this is just me thinking. I love reading here. I am continually saddened by the strange and crippling moves that are made by management but was a bit hopeful with the draft…

    Glad to be back. Turns out I am more of an “offseason hockey fan”!! I love the Oilers (early infection from the WHA days and the early years watching Gretzky, Messier, Kurri, Coffey, Anderson work their magic) but it is so painful to watch them flounder that I find actually watching games – well, sphincter clinchingly bad I guess!!

    Primetime:
    DSP just re-signed with Washington for $1 million x 1…and we gave the Drake what?

    All other teams seem to have figured out you need to squeeze the bottom of the roster for dollars to pay the impact positions (as described by KT above).Everyone except Chia, who keeps adding $100K here and $200K there (and $2.5 mill on a question mark in goal…).

    Why does he not seem to see what every other competent GM in the league sees?

  172. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woogie63:
    PTO for Yak?

    In a deep base voice…

    “Don’t you give me no dirty looks
    Old Chia’s hip; he knows what cooks
    Just tell your Russian friend outside
    You ain’t got time to take a ride

    .Yakety Yak…..Dont come back!”

    Im not sayin he was a Coaster………More like a Bee……..Gee.

  173. Andy Dufresne says:

    Primetime: Well, whether it was initiallythe plan or not, they are pot committed now.No more dollars left for a legitimate top 9F

    Looking for a Lucic on The River.

  174. Andy Dufresne says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    •It feels like the Oilers have something in their back pocket, a Lucic plus 2019 first-round pick for

    I like how you left this open. And you’re right, it sure does feel like there’s a ball waiting to drop.

    I think worst case scenario is something like Lucic + 1st for Faulk (type).

    I think best case scenario is something like Lucic + 4th for Faulk.

    Probably come in somewhere in between… Hopefully.Retaining of course would affect both sides of the ledger.I’d rather give a 2nd and not retain, than a 4th and retain.

    Do others here feel the same way?Would you rather retain or give up a better pick/prospect?

    According to John Shannon, the original deal in the Calgary Carolina trade included Faulk…..Flames held out and everntually got Hanafin.

  175. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer: Anyone thats watched Lucic play last year does not say, hey I want that on my team.We’re stuck with him until buyout

    Or Sunday……whichever comes first

  176. Andy Dufresne says:

    Incredible how Lucic went from Boat Anchor imovable contract to “straight up trade value to mulitple teams”, all within about 30 days……in breaking news I heard this morning that a Lucic for Tavares deal is in the works…..but we might have to add a sweetner……..

  177. Andy Dufresne says:

    Munny: They do have one: a yellow card. A Korean player was assessed a yellow, today actually, for “simulation” (in the box).

    My wife accuses me of that all the time.

  178. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    rickithebear,

    – Good breakdown: I think the most likely 20 goal 45-50 point scorer that we can get next year is on our team right now. Trading the 3% post x-mas shooting Lucic, you are going to get a similar (or worse) player in return.

    – And what you get back, is not realistic to project what Lucic should produce next year

  179. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    – Great comment – Vor and I had a good exchange on this a few days ago: for sure Edmonton would be the bottom-5 team in the league as a destination for players.

    – But when we start winning, it will improve. To the extent players who sign here don’t care about winning historically (given 10 years of crap), there has to be an inducement when chosing between Edmonton and other more desirable/warmer/tax-freindly/better winter/less travel/things to do

    – I am not hating Edmonton, I grew up in Yellowknife. But we aren’t multi-millionaire 20 somethings.

    – Heck even our owner doesn’t live in Edmonton

  180. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    – Great comment – Vor and I had a good exchange on this a few days ago: for sure Edmonton would be the bottom-5 team in the league as a destination for players.

    – But when we start winning, it will improve.To the extent players who sign here don’t care about winning historically (given 10 years of crap), there has to be an inducement when chosing between Edmonton and other more desirable/warmer/tax-freindly/better winter/less travel/things to do

    – I am not hating Edmonton, I grew up in Yellowknife.But we aren’t multi-millionaire 20 somethings.

    – Heck even our owner doesn’t live in Edmonton

    Thanks! This season was so disappointing that I stopped watching ANY hockey until the playoffs and even then it was here and there. Too bad hockey used to be a real interest. I feel like there is a great deal of league and referee bias that negates great talent like McDavid etc. Makes it a lot less fun and way more aggravation than my aging cardiac and brain vasculature can sustain!

    I love the off season issues though! Plus truth be told I am a wee bit of a pessimist! My wife may disagree on the definition of “a bit”!

    Again thanks for your reply. I really enjoy your posts and VOR and many others. Some, not so much but that is not a condemnation. Still enjoy reading them!

    As an aside I’m currently reading a really interesting book some of you out there may enjoy. It’s called “The Death of Expertise” – interesting read.

    Take call and have a great long weekend. Look forward to more LT reading!

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