Shoot the Moon

Todd McLellan values volume shooters and the Edmonton Oilers are procuring forwards who match the vision. The biggest development: Connor McDavid increased his volume, but there are others pushing. Some of these shooters could arrive on a skill line as soon as this fall. Is the next 50-goal scorer for the Edmonton Oilers already on the roster?

  • Todd McLellan: “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $5 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

NHL F’S 5-ON-5 SHOTS PER 60

Most of the new hires among wingers were leaders in shots per 60 for 2017-18. Yamamoto’s number comes with a sample size alert, McDavid promised more shots and delivered in a big way (up .50 per 60 year over year). If you’re looking for the best bet on 50 goals, 97 is the easy answer. Jesse Puljujarvi shows up in a good spot and Pontus Aberg is a promising acquisition.

AHL F’S shots/game (all disciplines)

Two wingers shooting lights out (these rates would have them approaching 250 shots on goal in a full 82-game schedule) and both men are projected to be on the opening night roster this fall.

CHL F’S shots/game (all disciplines)

Monster totals here, it’s unfortunate we don’t have the numbers from decades previous for CHL kids. Hebig was an overager but that’s a grand number, Benson, Safin and Maksimov are shooting halfway through the anthem. It will be fun to see how much they shoot first year pro.

NCAA F’S shots/game (all disciplines)

None of the college men are pure shooters. McPhee and Rasanen are two players I’ll be monitoring this coming season, they aren’t purely offensive forwards but could fill roles as two-way players in years to come.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Oilers need shooters. I think there is some evidence Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ty Rattie are all worthy candidates. One of these wingers is going to come to camp and shoot from the first warmup through the last whistle of preseason, and that guy is going to get an amazing job this winter.

DFF FORWARDS 2017-18 (5-ON-5)

I thought this had been published but went walkabout and couldn’t find. Here are Oilers forwards and their percentage of time on-ice against elites, their DFF percentage 5-on-5, and the goal differential. Some terrific numbers, I ran the main group and then three men whose sample size is less trustworthy because at-bats.

The names at the top are predictable, anyone who played with Connor McDavid is going to shine like a diamond. As a reminder, McDavid played a lot with Patrick Maroon (523 minutes), Leon Draisaitl (498), Milan Lucic (419) and some with Jesse Puljujarvi (256) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (207). Drake Caggiula played 146 minutes with 97, that’s 19 percent of his total 5-on-5 time on ice last season.

This is the small sample size crew, both Yamamoto and Aberg showed well, while Rattie was on a fabulous unsustainable wave that cannot stand. Man. A quick note here to thank all involved in the Puck IQ project, their strong work opens up an avenue of discussion available only because they exist. I started this blog in search of knowledge, their work is like finding five more chapters of the bible. Hallelujah, amen. I thank you.

TOBIAS RIEDER INTERVIEW

I quote articles from time to time, mostly waiting 24 hours to do it. I’m changing up the rule today because of a German language interview with Tobias Rieder. The translate is clean, we are on the honor system (that means you have to click on the article or I’m a bad bad man) but there’s so much there I don’t know how you could resist. Here is my favourite Rieder quote:

  • Rieder on the role Leon Draisaitl played in his signing with Edmonton: “Honestly not a big one, of course he’s a great player I like to play with and the other centers at Edmonton are superstars or very good players, but the fact that the Oilers do not have that many players out in the field “gives me a good chance there and has influenced the decision.” Source-EIS Hockey News

Music! Rieder knows this is an ideal fit, the men he needs to best in order to play with ridiculous skill do not represent Everest. Well done to Tobias Rieder, hope he scores 20.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun, busy show to start the week! At 10 this morning, scheduled to appear:

  • Erik Erlendsson, LightningInsider.com. Where are we with the Erik Karlsson trade?
  • Matthew Scianitti, TSN. CFL Week 4 brought the crazy, plus Batman chucks.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Slow starts for Eskimos, Patrick Maroon landing.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. See you on the radio!

 

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180 Responses to "Shoot the Moon"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Remember when Connor McDavid decided to shoot the puck more and turned in to an elite goal scorer in the last couple months of the season?

    That was pretty cool!

    I think he might revert a bit back to his over-passing ways (I think its more natural for him) but, at some point, he’ll just decide to score a bunch of goals.

    If healthy, is there any way he’s under 40?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    The best “shooter” in the organization, may be playing in Niagra this year.

    Krill Maksimov can flat out shoot the puck and he’s not shy to do so.

    Many many of his many many goals were scored from the “Ovechkin spot” on the one-timer.

    Miles to go to see if Krill can play in the NHL but, if he develops an NHL game, he will score some goals.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would expect Safin and Maksimov to each increase their shot volumes in their draft plus 2 year (similar to the rates of Hebig and Benson as more mature CHL prospects last year).

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think Aberg was around 1.5 P/60 last year but that includes NSH numbers.

    If I remember correctly, I’ve read he was over 2 as an Oiler?

    If that is correct, maybe he deserves a look up the lineup? He doesn’t get much love as a 2nd line option.

  5. Jaxon says:

    I notice that although Rattie played mostly with McDavid, he only had 30% of his time against elites vs Yamamoto who similarly played mostly with McDavid in his small sample and played 40% against elites. Once the season was lost after the trade deadline, did MacLellan give McDavid slightly easier assignments when he could to help him pad his stats? That is also when McDavid went on the torrid 134 pt pace. Anyone know if there is a correlation there?

  6. npanciroli says:

    I know Aberg missed practice last year but I swear by eye and apparently by numbers he is a legit talent. Seems like the Oilers don’t like him much but he always looked like a threat on the ice.

  7. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Remember when Connor McDavid decided to shoot the puck more and turned in to an elite goal scorer in the last couple months of the season?

    That was pretty cool!

    I think he might revert a bit back to his over-passing ways (I think its more natural for him) but, at some point, he’ll just decide to score a bunch of goals.

    Passing breaks down the defense also. Connor, Leon, and Ryan are all great passers. The Oilers won.t succeed until they acknowledge that the rush game is going to be as or more important than the cycle game.

    If healthy, is there any way he’s under 40?

    But McDavid began shooting more, NOT for the reasons McLellan gave in the quote, but because he was open more, because of Nugent-Hopkins (and McDavid’s) elite passing skills opening up time and space for imore and better looks off the rush.

    The power play was still crap.

  8. Phil says:

    Hey folks 🙂

    long time quiet reader here.

    Since I´m German I thought I might help with translating the important parts of the interview.
    I can confirm that the following phrase is explicitly referring to the wingers:
    “the fact that the Oilers do not have that many players out in the field gives me a good chance there and has influenced the decision.

    If I can be of any further help with the German – just let me know 🙂
    Thanks guys!

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Zack Kassian sprinting up stairs to stay in shape while in Santorini, Greece.:

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BlAXyeWA_-r/

    Nice place to hang out for a couple months.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: But McDavid began shooting more, NOT for the reasons McLellan gave in the quote, but because he was open more, because of Nugent-Hopkins (and McDavid’s) elite passing skills opening up time and space for imore and better looks off the rush.

    The power play was still crap.

    Here are McDavid’s individual shots/60 with each team mate this year (min 140 min together)

    Leon Draisaitl 11.1
    Oscar Klefbom 9.9
    Kris Russell 9.8
    Darnell Nurse 9.7
    Patrick Maroon 9.4
    Adam Larsson 9.3
    Matthew Benning 9.1
    Jesse Puljujarvi 8.9
    Milan Lucic 8.4
    Drake Caggiula 7.8
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 7.2
    Ty Rattie 7.2

    Looks like he took the least shots with RNH and Rattie and the most with Drai.

    If you prefer shot attempts (corsi) per 60 here it is:

    With
    Leon Draisaitl 16.1
    Matthew Benning 15.6
    Jesse Puljujarvi 15.4
    Oscar Klefbom 15.3
    Patrick Maroon 14.9
    Darnell Nurse 14.8
    Kris Russell 14.6
    Adam Larsson 14.1
    Milan Lucic 14.0
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 13.6
    Ty Rattie 12.1
    Drake Caggiula 11.5

  11. tileguy says:

    Can we get an example of who is an elite and who is not an elite.
    EDIT, an example of who is just barely an elite and who isn’t quite elite.

  12. Jaxon says:

    This is a continuation of yesterday’s conversation. Thought people might enjoy this highlight.

    Melvis,

    https://youtu.be/DUrtlfuJVgA

    Ehlers switches hands mid-play.

    Myself. I shoot left in hockey, bat right, throw right and catch left in baseball, catch left as a goalie, serve right in volleyball and racket sports, write right, brush teeth left, golf swing right but putt left.

    My dad (from Saskatchewan and loved Howe) always wanted me to practice left and right in hockey but I never would.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Remember when Connor McDavid decided to shoot the puck more and turned in to an elite goal scorer in the last couple months of the season?

    As shown in my reply to Godot above, he shot least with RNH and he played with RNH for the last ~12 games of the season.

  14. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here are McDavid’s individual shots/60 with each team mate this year (min 140 min together)

    Leon Draisaitl11.1
    Oscar Klefbom9.9
    Kris Russell9.8
    Darnell Nurse9.7
    Patrick Maroon9.4
    Adam Larsson9.3
    Matthew Benning9.1
    Jesse Puljujarvi8.9
    Milan Lucic8.4
    Drake Caggiula7.8
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins7.2
    Ty Rattie7.2

    Looks like he took the least shots with RNH and Rattie and the most with Drai.

    If you prefer shot attempts (corsi) per 60 here it is:

    With
    Leon Draisaitl16.1
    Matthew Benning15.6
    Jesse Puljujarvi15.4
    Oscar Klefbom15.3
    Patrick Maroon14.9
    Darnell Nurse14.8
    Kris Russell14.6
    Adam Larsson14.1
    Milan Lucic14.0
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins13.6
    Ty Rattie12.1
    Drake Caggiula11.5

    I guess I should have said shot quality and scoring chance conversion rate. McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins use passing to break down the defense, especially on the rush to create better scoring looks for McDavid, the shooter. More goals, fewer rebound shots because of better looks off the rush.

  15. tileguy says:

    “Total on ice versus elites”, is there a guy sitting in the pressbox every game noting this, or is it someone pouring over the NHL stats and deciding that this line is elite but this line isn’t elite, and this line has a boat anchor but is still elite and this player I do not know so I will call him elite, or am I just going offside. Sure isn’t like walks and hits per innings pitched.

  16. supernova says:

    Thanks Phil

    Phil:
    Hey folks

    long time quiet reader here.

    Since I´m German I thought I might help with translating the important parts of the interview.
    I can confirm that the following phrase is explicitly referring to the wingers:
    “the fact that the Oilers do not have that many players out in the field gives me a good chance there and has influenced the decision.

    If I can be of any further help with the German – just let me know
    Thanks guys!

  17. supernova says:

    That McLellan quote about Shot Volume is one of my favourites of his era with the Oilers

    Also when he talks about having no Solutions to the PK

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Looks like RNH took *slightly* less shots when with McDavid as well:

    Ryan Strome 8.6
    Mike Cammalleri 8.3
    Patrick Maroon 8.0
    Connor McDavid 7.5
    Darnell Nurse 7.3
    Kris Russell 7.1
    Drake Caggiula 6.8
    Ty Rattie 6.8
    Adam Larsson 6.6
    Jesse Puljujarvi 6.1
    Milan Lucic 5.7
    Oscar Klefbom 5.6
    Matthew Benning 5.2

  19. godot10 says:

    With elite passers like Connor, Leon, and RNH, the rush game should be as or more important than the cycle game. In the rush game, passing and speed break down the defense. A volume shooting cycle game, while important, does not accentuate the Oilers strengths.

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rattie’s shots with players over 50min TOI

    Darnell Nurse 9.7
    Adam Larsson 8.7
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 8.6
    Connor McDavid 6.8
    Leon Draisaitl 6.0

    So it looks like the shots spread out when 93-97-8 played together, but no one went on a shooting bender.

  21. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Looks like RNH took *slightly* less shots when with McDavid as well:

    Ryan Strome8.6
    Mike Cammalleri8.3
    Patrick Maroon8.0
    Connor McDavid7.5
    Darnell Nurse7.3
    Kris Russell7.1
    Drake Caggiula6.8
    Ty Rattie6.8
    Adam Larsson6.6
    Jesse Puljujarvi6.1
    Milan Lucic5.7
    Oscar Klefbom5.6
    Matthew Benning5.2

    Less is sometimes more. They are scoring off the rush. Breaking down the defense without giving up possession, if one can do it, is superior to breaking down the defense by giving up possession.

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    tileguy:
    “Total on ice versus elites”, is there a guy sitting in the pressbox every game noting this, or is it someone pouring over the NHL stats and deciding that this line is elite but this line isn’t elite, and this line has a boat anchor but is still elite and this player I do not know so I will call him elite, or am I just going offside. Sure isn’t like walks and hits per innings pitched.

    Its all explained here: https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    NHL game sheets have TOI for every player so you can use them to figure out every player’s TOI vs every other player in the NHL.

    The formula to determine “who is elite” is explained in the link.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Less is sometimes more. They are scoring off the rush.Breaking down the defense without giving up possession, if one can do it, is superior to breaking down the defense by giving up possession.

    I agree that EDM should be more of a rush team.

    I was providing data for the questions and suppositions.

  24. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Any chance you could dig up the DFF % numbers for the Dmen without McDavid
    -against elites
    -against the rest

    over the last 2 years

    Im wondering how our Dmen do against the elites/not the elites when they do not have McDavid on the ice. Im thinking the numbers may not look good. But then I’ll also ask, how do Dmen on other teams do against elites/not the elites when not playing with their star player up front.

  25. Boil-in-the-Oil says:

    I just read a report (https://mobile.twitter.com/lkorac10/status/1016156458935779329) that suggests Maroon may be signing a one-year deal worth $1.7MM with the Blues.

    That seems low to me (!?) . . . couldn’t we find a way to make room for a Maroon contract @ 2m for a couple of years? Personally, i would welcome a contract like that (i like the big guy).

  26. Woogie63 says:

    Some discussion on Caggiula’s salary, another way to look at it would be. He has the 15th highest cap hit on this editions of the Oilers (Nurse will make he 16th when that is announced).

    Here are all the 15th Cap hits on the other NHL teams.

    Carter Rowney
    Nick Cousins
    Chris Wagner
    Jake McCabe
    Curtis Lazar
    Petr Mrázek
    Chris Kunitz
    Gabriel Bourque
    Matiss Kivlenieks
    Brett Ritchie
    Andreas Athanasiou
    Drake Caggiula
    Derek MacKenzie
    Kyle Clifford
    Carson Soucy
    Antti Niemi
    Kevin Fiala
    Egor Yakovlev
    Robin Lehner
    Ryan Lindgren
    Colin White
    Scott Laughton
    Zach Aston-Reese
    Vincent Praplan
    Dmitrij Jaskin
    Cédric Paquette
    Auston Matthews
    Anders Nilsson
    Deryk Engelland
    Shane Gersich
    Logan Stanley

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think Aberg was around 1.5 P/60 last year but that includes NSH numbers.

    If I remember correctly, I’ve read he was over 2 as an Oiler?

    If that is correct, maybe he deserves a look up the lineup?He doesn’t get much love as a 2nd line option.

    1.99 at 5v5.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8476857

    And yes, I think he’s a hidden gem – one of those Value contract wingers we’re always looking for. Khaira too.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Zack Kassian sprinting up stairs to stay in shape while in Santorini, Greece.:

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BlAXyeWA_-r/

    Nice place to hang out for a couple months.

    Hope he’s still there in a couple weeks. I will sit on the stairs and sweat.

  29. Munny says:

    Phil,

    Awesome! Don’t be afraid to share anything you see in the German media with regards to the Oil. We gobble it all up, lol.

  30. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here are McDavid’s individual shots/60 with each team mate this year (min 140 min together)

    Leon Draisaitl11.1
    Oscar Klefbom9.9
    Kris Russell9.8
    Darnell Nurse9.7
    Patrick Maroon9.4
    Adam Larsson9.3
    Matthew Benning9.1
    Jesse Puljujarvi8.9
    Milan Lucic8.4
    Drake Caggiula7.8
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins7.2
    Ty Rattie7.2

    Looks like he took the least shots with RNH and Rattie and the most with Drai.

    If you prefer shot attempts (corsi) per 60 here it is:

    With
    Leon Draisaitl16.1
    Matthew Benning15.6
    Jesse Puljujarvi15.4
    Oscar Klefbom15.3
    Patrick Maroon14.9
    Darnell Nurse14.8
    Kris Russell14.6
    Adam Larsson14.1
    Milan Lucic14.0
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins13.6
    Ty Rattie12.1
    Drake Caggiula11.5

    I’d be curious to see CMD’s shooting percentage with Nuge and Rattie. Might be suppressing shot rates.

  31. Munny says:

    LT said…

    Here are Oilers forwards and their percentage of time on-ice against elites, their DFF percentage 5-on-5, and the goal differential.

    Fantabulous! Beauty looking charts too.

    Would love to see a column for TOI added, so we all know how volatile the numbers are or aren’t.

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    Boil-in-the-Oil:
    I just read a report (https://mobile.twitter.com/lkorac10/status/1016156458935779329) that suggestsMaroon may be signing a one-year deal worth $1.7MM with the Blues.

    That seems low to me (!?) . . . couldn’t we find a way to make room for a Maroon contract @ 2m for a couple of years? Personally, i would welcome a contract like that (i like the big guy).

    If Maroon signs in St. Louis for one year at 1.7, he’s leaving a lot of money on the table. I doubt there’s any financial argument we could make to change his mind. The Blues are not a great location for a show-me contract either. They have a lot of wingers there vying for ice time.

  33. ArmchairGM says:

    Does Colin Miller’s 4 x $3.875M contract influence Darnell’s impending contract at all?

  34. Yeti says:

    ArmchairGM: 1.99 at 5v5.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8476857

    And yes, I think he’s a hidden gem – one of those Value contract wingers we’re always looking for. Khaira too.

    He screwed up and missed training just when he seemed to be gaining some traction… Shame – lets hope he comes through in training camp and any former sins are forgiven by the coaching staff. Would be a strong value contract if so!
    https://oilersnation.com/2018/03/20/the-oilers-arent-happy-with-pontus-aberg/

  35. Drew says:

    JimmyV1965: If Maroon signs in St. Louis for one year at 1.7, he’s leaving a lot of money on the table. I doubt there’s any financial argument we could make to change his mind. The Blues are not a great location for a show-me contract either. They have a lot of wingers there vying for ice time.

    If accurate, this is the type of contract and player type the Oil should be signing to maintain the heavy stick portion of their mandate while having some skill attached (provided they did not have Lucic contract hanging over them).

    Chia seems unable to be selective in his portfolio management, he overpays for what his portfolio needs rather than searching for value and overall returns?

  36. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Does Colin Miller’s 4 x $3.875M contract influence Darnell’s impending contract at all?

    Colin Miller is a 3Rd pairing offensive D entering his prime. Nurse is 2ND pairing D coming off of his ELC who scored well at EV and who played a lot of tough minutes.

    So on a bridge, not so much.

    But on a long term deal,yes. Any long term deal is over $5 million for Nurse.

  37. bendelson says:

    Jaxon: golf swing right but putt left.

    Ha! At one point in time, I did the same. My brothers and I all started golfing left handed as youngsters but all switched to the right as my Dad’s clubs were right-handed… I had a two sided putter and for the longest time would putt left on a left to right break and right-handed on a right to left. Eventually I bought a real putter and made the complete switch to the right side.

    Note: I was an equally poor putter from either side.

  38. Drew says:

    Yeti: He screwed up and missed training just when he seemed to be gaining some traction… Shame – lets hope he comes through in training camp and any former sins are forgiven by the coaching staff. Would be a strong value contract if so!
    https://oilersnation.com/2018/03/20/the-oilers-arent-happy-with-pontus-aberg/

    that’s picking from the Sather reclamation tree, which if done well is extremely valuable. I believe the organization needs the proper support to help these type of players (assets) realize their potential.

    the redwings used to do a great job at this, Daniel Cleary was a good example. He had great talent but did not know what being a good pro was, almost hit 1,000 games in his career after the red wing organization had a go with him.

    the rumblings around Jesses Pul. suggest the Oil are not putting all the needed efforts in asset management (all facets of player development)?

    I hope they are self-evaluating their efforts and trying to improve.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Any chance you could dig up the DFF % numbers for the Dmen without McDavid
    -against elites
    -against the rest

    over the last 2 years

    Im wondering how our Dmen do against the elites/not the elites when they do not have McDavid on the ice.Im thinking the numbers may not look good.But then I’ll also ask, how do Dmen on other teams do against elites/not the elites when not playing with their star player up front.

    You will have to ask G for that.

    The site where you can access all this stuff was supposed to up a looooong time ago and I have no idea if it will ever get up

  40. CrazyCoach says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Zack Kassian sprinting up stairs to stay in shape while in Santorini, Greece.:

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BlAXyeWA_-r/

    Nice place to hang out for a couple months.

    Hey Woodguy, LT, et al,

    Haven’t been around in awhile. My college teaching side hustle has kept my insanely busy with 37 students per class.

    That’s pretty impressive stair sprinting, seeing he has to do a slight stutter between steps. Probably great for the footspeed. I know he’s much maligned, but I’d like to see Seakass have a bounce back season.

    Good article LT! This team definitely needs some shooters. I have a similar side to me when I’m coaching. I do like lots of shots, merely for the reason that it tires other teams out and keeps them in a defensive mode. The tricky part of course if training to retain puck possession after shooting. Ideally, the shots hit the twine and you’re back at centre trying to win a faceoff. If that doesn’t work, you need teams with good puck retrieval skills, which start with skating, leading to checking (not just bodychecking either), and then of course puck handling. I’ve always thought RNH was an excellent puck retriever, which of course made lead to more shots for McDavid.

  41. Scungilli Slushy says:

    npanciroli:
    I know Aberg missed practice last year but I swear by eye and apparently by numbers he is a legit talent. Seems like the Oilers don’t like him much but he always looked like a threat on the ice.

    He’s a talented and has boots, there are things he’s not doing right such as two way play, and obviously off ice stuff that teams aren’t appreciating.

    It’s odd to me how so many players with the skill get so close to their dream and can’t quite get the last little details. I’d play the political game for the incomes they get these days.

  42. Melvis says:

    Jaxon,

    I forgot about Ehlers.

    You shoot left and bat and golf right? That’s, i dunno – wonderfully strange?

    I’m nearly at the point of leaving my teeth in a glass. The bark is worse than the bite. I now fork and knife portable food. However, I don’t switch up. Lefty fork to mouth. I putt both ways.

    As for choking the chicken. Too much information.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    CrazyCoach,

    Hey Ben.

    Good to have you around again.

    I hope life is treating you well.

  44. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You will have to ask G for that.

    The site where you can access all this stuff was supposed to up a looooong time ago and I have no idea if it will ever get up

    I will give him a DM. Thanks.

  45. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Looks like RNH took *slightly* less shots when with McDavid as well:

    Ryan Strome8.6
    Mike Cammalleri8.3
    Patrick Maroon8.0
    Connor McDavid7.5
    Darnell Nurse7.3
    Kris Russell7.1
    Drake Caggiula6.8
    Ty Rattie6.8
    Adam Larsson6.6
    Jesse Puljujarvi6.1
    Milan Lucic5.7
    Oscar Klefbom5.6
    Matthew Benning5.2

    Only going by memory here, but RNH-McDavid-Rattie just looked like a more efficient line than what McDavid was playing with in the past. More drop-passes and give and goes. They seemed to be attacking all the time, which is why we’re all pumped to see them together in the fall. Might have been less shots, but they seemed to be finishing alot of the chances. Probably hard to nail this down with stats, but that combo was definitely passing the eye test.

  46. Jaxon says:

    Melvis: You shoot left and bat and golf right? That’s, i dunno – wonderfully strange?

    To me, right-hand dominant (stronger, more coordinated) meant that one-handed hockey where top hand was right and I feel does most of the coordinated twisting when stickhandling and shooting. Right-hand dominant meant I’d bring the bat around (break wrists) with the power and twist of the right hand. And a golf swing (high-speed rotation more important than wrist twist) felt closer to a bat swing than a hockey shot (often shooting with little backswing and follow through is more towards a target rather than a continuation of momentum), whereas I felt calmer with my right hand on top and my more immobile left hand on the bottom to putt. Strange, I know, but it always felt right and made sense to me.

  47. Jaxon says:

    Melvis: I now fork and knife portable food. However, I don’t switch up. Lefty fork to mouth.

    Haha, I’m mostly fork in right hand, but if I’m cutting a steak, fork in left hand, knife in right.

  48. PigeonCamera says:

    Boil-in-the-Oil:
    I just read a report (https://mobile.twitter.com/lkorac10/status/1016156458935779329) that suggestsMaroon may be signing a one-year deal worth $1.7MM with the Blues.

    That seems low to me (!?) . . . couldn’t we find a way to make room for a Maroon contract @ 2m for a couple of years? Personally, i would welcome a contract like that (i like the big guy).

    This was debunked by none other than Patty’s brother on twitter. He’s stated that Patrick still hasn’t decided where he’s going.

  49. JimmyV1965 says:

    Drew: If accurate, this is the type of contract and player type the Oil should be signing to maintain the heavy stick portion of their mandate while having some skill attached (provided they did not have Lucic contract hanging over them).

    Chia seems unable to be selective in his portfolio management, he overpays for what his portfolio needs rather than searching for value and overall returns?

    I don’t think we’re getting Maroon at $1.7. The only team getting him at that price is the Blues.

  50. npanciroli says:

    Unreasonable, but hoping Chia can pull a Lucic for cheaper RHD then grab Maroon for around 3×3 or something.

  51. digger50 says:

    PigeonCamera: This was debunked by none other than Patty’s brother on twitter.He’s stated that Patrick still hasn’t decided where he’s going.

    Thanks for the update.

    I hope Patrick is coming here at a good rate. Or going somewhere of his choice at an inflated rate.

  52. CrazyCoach says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    CrazyCoach,

    Hey Ben.

    Good to have you around again.

    I hope life is treating you well.

    Thanks Woodguy!

    Yeah, it’s going better now. Was rough for a bit, but I’ve been getting things done.

    It’s been fun teaching 37 international students about the wonderful sport of ice hockey via my course, but that amount of students leaves me very little free time to come in here and spout off. Maybe that’s a good thing.

    Anyway, it’s been an interesting summer for the Oil so far and I’m looking forward to seeing how it will all play out in training camp.

    I was in Edmonton for the long weekend and I wish I had time to go see the prospects, but it was go go go.

  53. Jaxon says:

    digger50: Thanks for the update.

    I hope Patrick is coming here at a good rate. Or going somewhere of his choice at an inflated rate.

    Not me, I’m still hoping he can work out a fair deal with St Louis as much as a like him as an Oiler. I hope he signs for 1 x $1.7M there and has a solid enough gentleman’s agreement to get a longterm contract at a decent salary and maybe with a NMC structured to make a buyout senseless come January 1st. How low would his cap hit have to be to get a deal like that? Probably pretty damn low, but it would be a good place to start talks if you wanted to stay in your hometown where your son is.

  54. CrazyCoach says:

    I’ll add to this right hand, left hand conversation. I hold a pen with my right hand, but a knife in my left when I’m eating, except that I hold my knife in my right hand when I’m cleaning fish or skinning animals and when I had to perform dissections in university. I started out batting right in fastpitch, but found later in life that I could hit from both sides of the plate equally with power. Although I didn’t play golf till my thirties, I’m forever a rightie there. When I played team handball, I could shoot and pass with both arms, but never could throw a softball with my left.

    Mass confusion in my brain for sure.

  55. Munny says:

    I’m left foot dominant. Goofy-footed. Pretty sure…

  56. Bag of Pucks says:

    If I’m Chiarelli, I’m investigating the market for Lucic now but am likely holding until the 20 G mark of the season to trade him.

    At that point, you’ll know what return to form (if any) has come from Milan, and you’ll also have a better sense for roster needs based on the performance of a number of players who need fresh evaluation following regressive seasons last year.

    It also gives you time to see if the likes of Yamamoto, Puli, Benson or Aberg demonstrate legitimate traction as Top 6 F options.

    Most players and managers in this situation will agree that the player needs to improve his play in the short-term to make himself more marketable as a trade asset. IMO, we’ll know 3 games in. If Lucic is playing like a miserable SOB like he did in his prime, we may have a viable trade chip. If he’s the more gentle bear we saw last year, we’re likely looking at a sweetener needed to dump the contract.

    Everyone points to Lucic’s hit totals as evidence that he’s not lost his taste for the rough stuff. That only tells part of the story imo. This is a player that needs to fight AND play past the whistle to be effective. He can’t coast on reputation.

  57. Melvis says:

    Munny:
    I’m left foot dominant. Goofy-footed. Pretty sure…

    I’ve been seen with both in my mouth from time to time.

  58. Atc-Nate says:

    Melvis:
    Jaxon,

    I forgot about Ehlers.

    You shoot left and bat and golf right? That’s, i dunno – wonderfully strange?

    I’m nearly at the point of leaving my teeth in a glass. The bark is worse than the bite. I now fork and knife portable food. However, I don’t switch up. Lefty fork to mouth. I putt both ways.

    As for choking the chicken. Too much information.

    I also bat right, golf right, shoot left. My buddy golfs left, shoots left, catches left, writes right … I don’t know what percentages do what but it’s interesting discussion

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM: 1.99 at 5v5.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8476857

    And yes, I think he’s a hidden gem – one of those Value contract wingers we’re always looking for. Khaira too.

    Also, AND THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT, his all situations without McDavid number:

    2.45 points/60

    Small sample size, but WOW.

  60. Munny says:

    Melvis: I’ve been seen with both in my mouth from time to time.

    I know the feeling oh too well.

  61. WeirsBeard says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here are McDavid’s individual shots/60 with each team mate this year (min 140 min together)

    Leon Draisaitl11.1
    Oscar Klefbom9.9
    Kris Russell9.8
    Darnell Nurse9.7
    Patrick Maroon9.4
    Adam Larsson9.3
    Matthew Benning9.1
    Jesse Puljujarvi8.9
    Milan Lucic8.4
    Drake Caggiula7.8
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins7.2
    Ty Rattie7.2

    Looks like he took the least shots with RNH and Rattie and the most with Drai.

    If you prefer shot attempts (corsi) per 60 here it is:

    With
    Leon Draisaitl16.1
    Matthew Benning15.6
    Jesse Puljujarvi15.4
    Oscar Klefbom15.3
    Patrick Maroon14.9
    Darnell Nurse14.8
    Kris Russell14.6
    Adam Larsson14.1
    Milan Lucic14.0
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins13.6
    Ty Rattie12.1
    Drake Caggiula11.5

    Are these 5×5, even strength or all states? Sorry if I missed that.

  62. Munny says:

    Melvis: I’ve been seen with both in my mouth from time to time.

    However I roll with both hands, if you know what I mean. Never could get the one-handed technique down… and I’m all about the aesthetic of the finished product.

  63. Drew says:

    CrazyCoach:
    I’ll add to this right hand, left hand conversation. I hold a pen with my right hand, but a knife in my left when I’m eating, except that I hold my knife in my right hand when I’m cleaning fish or skinning animals and when I had to perform dissections in university.I started out batting right in fastpitch, but found later in life that I could hit from both sides of the plate equally with power.Although I didn’t play golf till my thirties, I’m forever a rightie there.When I played team handball, I could shoot and pass with both arms, but never could throw a softball with my left.

    Mass confusion in my brain for sure.

    I write with my left hand but on the blackboard with my right???

    I had a really boring economics sessional instructor once and I taught myself to write simultaneously with both hands. The content was identical though I never could write different content with both hands.

  64. Georges says:

    McLellan: “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important…”

    Here’s the correlation between 5v5 CF60 and GF60 for teams in the past 5 seasons:

    13-14, .50
    14-15, .52
    15-16, .34
    16-17, .33
    17-18, .29

    And here’s the correlation between 5v5 SF60 and GF60 over the same period:

    13-14, .60
    14-15, .61
    15-16, .49
    16-17, .52
    17-18, .31

    Volume shooting is becoming less predictive of scoring than it’s been in the past.

    If the HC tells the roster to play a style, the roster will play that style.

    How much of the results, then, are on the roster and how much are on the style?

    Does the HC have anything to offer his offense other than Connor, be a genius, the rest of you, put pucks on net?

    (The HC in waiting is also worrisome. The Flames last season were #1 in CF60, top 10 in shot volume… and bottom 10 in goals.

    Treliving replaced the HC that produced the best CF60 last year with the HC that produced the 3rd best CF60. What problem was Treliving solving, I wonder.)

  65. Jethro Tull says:

    Georges: Treliving replaced the HC that produced the best CF60 last year with the HC that produced the 3rd best CF60. What problem was Treliving solving, I wonder.)

    The problem of his team missing the playoffs and somebody had to pay. In Edmonton, it was the assistants. In Calgary, the coaching team. But as a wise man once said on here, a GM gets one freebie coach firing…..

  66. leadfarmer says:

    Ross Johnston signs 4 year contract with Isles.

    Isles are going to punch your face

  67. Genjutsu says:

    Munny: However I roll with both hands, if you know what I mean. Never could get the one-handed technique down… and I’m all about the aesthetic of the finished product.

    Its 2018 dude. Get a yourself a rig!

  68. Professor Q says:

    Munny:
    I’m left foot dominant. Goofy-footed. Pretty sure…

    Goofy-footed is Right Foot Forward, by the way. Oddly enough. I always thought it was weird as I’m Goofy but Right Foot Dominant, hence why my right foot always goes forward to balance me, protect me, etc. Apparently Goofy means you’re Left Foot Dominant (but I’m sure it can have caveats and variances, like myself and others). More control on the backend? Always seemed odd to me, at any rate (I’d feel very odd and likely fall if I tried to use my right foot for manoeuvring rather than support/control).

  69. vangolf says:

    Jaxon: To me, right-hand dominant (stronger, more coordinated) meant that one-handed hockey where top hand was right and I feel does most of the coordinated twisting when stickhandling and shooting. Right-hand dominant meant I’d bring the bat around (break wrists) with the power and twist of the right hand. And a golf swing (high-speed rotation more important than wrist twist) felt closer to a bat swing than a hockey shot (often shooting with little backswing and follow through is more towards a target rather than a continuation of momentum), whereas I felt calmer with my right hand on top and my more immobile left hand on the bottom to putt. Strange, I know, but it always felt right and made sense to me.

    Left handed golfer here and very right hand dominant in life. The explanation that works best for me is that I play golf right handed from the left side. I grew up playing competitive tennis and I feel my golf swing is me hitting a backhand, while most righties are hitting forehands.

  70. theWaxCollector says:

    npanciroli:
    I know Aberg missed practice last year but I swear by eye and apparently by numbers he is a legit talent. Seems like the Oilers don’t like him much but he always looked like a threat on the ice.

    I 100% agree

    The guy is fast and has some skill.
    I believe after 10 games the forward lines, based on merit, will be:

    Nuge-McDavid-Aberg
    Rieder-Drai-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Strome-Rattie
    Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

    I even think that Khaira may pass Lucic if he continues to improve, and Lucic doesn’t rebound

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    I notice that although Rattie played mostly with McDavid, he only had 30% of his time against elites vs Yamamoto who similarly played mostly with McDavid in his small sample and played 40% against elites. Once the season was lost after the trade deadline, did MacLellan give McDavid slightly easier assignments when he could to help him pad his stats? That is also when McDavid went on the torrid 134 pt pace. Anyone know if there is a correlation there?

    I noticed the same thing in the TOI against elites.

    One of the main things I hope McLellan focuses on a bit more this year is line matching – he seems completely uninterested in matching lines. I understand what I think his premise is (no need to get McDavid away from tough matchups as he’ll win those match-ups in any event), however, when he’s not in one of his crazy supernova streaks, and isn’t dominating shift after shift, it would be nice if McLellan can work to get him away from the Vlasics and the Kadris.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: But McDavid began shooting more, NOT for the reasons McLellan gave in the quote, but because he was open more, because of Nugent-Hopkins (and McDavid’s) elite passing skills opening up time and space for imore and better looks off the rush.

    I don’t think this is entirely true – McDavid started shooting more and scoring more goals well before he was put with Nuge for the tail end.

    I understand that you like Nuge and McDavid together but I think you are trending towards over-stating the cause and effect.

    Its a good option, a very good option – its not the only good option.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    and as WG pointed out earlier – McDavid’s shot metrics with Nuge were actually very low compared to the others.

    As anticipated, you are over-stating Nuge’s impact on McDavid.

  74. CrazyCoach says:

    Drew: I write with my left hand but on the blackboard with my right???

    I had a really boring economics sessional instructor once and I taught myself to write simultaneously with both hands. The content was identical though I never could write different content with both hands.

    My writing is barely readable with my right hand, that I wouldn’t even attempt to write with my left hand.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: 1.99 at 5v5.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8476857

    And yes, I think he’s a hidden gem – one of those Value contract wingers we’re always looking for. Khaira too.

    Thanks – i was trying to figure it out on Corsica but couldn’t get results separated between NSH and EDM.

    I usually only use natural stat for with and without you.

    I think I criminally under-use its features.

    —————————

    To the point, yes, it seems Aberg has more to give – he seems like he can be a faster and better Caggulia. I think he could be a sleeper for that second line (hopefully left wing as Jesse should solidify the 2RW spot).

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: I guess I should have said shot quality and scoring chance conversion rate.McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins use passing to break down the defense, especially on the rush to create better scoring looks for McDavid, the shooter.More goals, fewer rebound shots because of better looks off the rush.

    Hmmmmm, with respect, you seem to be changing your argument because what you said was proven to be untrue.

    You were clear that McDavid was “shooting more” because of Nuge (and you said this in response to a post about him shooting more).

    You may be right that the shot quality is increased together but that was not your original position.

    Its a pet peeve that noone will admit they were wrong on the internet – sigh.

  77. Primetime says:

    leadfarmer:
    Ross Johnston signs 4 year contract with Isles.

    Isles are going to punch your face

    December 29, 2018

    Saturday Night Main Event

    I think Lou is planning on rolling into T.O. and beating the crap out of everyone, including JT and maybe even Dubas. Godfather “Heads of the Five families” style….

    That’s why he traded for Martin…wants to make sure he was on the right side of the ice for that night…

  78. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That’s because he was scoring with Nuge. Less shots when they go in the net. Duh.

    (I guess I should probably clarify that im kidding)

  79. leadfarmer says:

    Primetime,

    If you can’t beat em. Then BEAT EM

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    theWaxCollector: I 100% agree

    The guy is fast and has some skill.
    I believe after 10 games the forward lines, based on merit, will be:

    Nuge-McDavid-Aberg
    Rieder-Drai-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Strome-Rattie
    Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

    I even think that Khaira may pass Lucic if he continues to improve, and Lucic doesn’t rebound

    You could be right, however, I would posit that, if Rattie is being moved off the top line (maybe the top 2 lines), he will be exposed to waivers, sent to the Bake (if not claimed) and replaced by the team’s 2017 first round draft pick.

  81. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Stauffer said something to the effect of waiting to see how Bouchard does in 7-10 games and then making an addition if he doesn’t work out right away.

    Also has talked a lot about Barrie as a target when he’s UFA in 2 years. He’ll be turning 29 shortly after. I don’t like how this one’s turned out with Lucic.

  82. frjohnk says:

    Georges: Here’s the correlation between 5v5 CF60 and GF60 for teams in the past 5 seasons:

    13-14, .50
    14-15, .52
    15-16, .34
    16-17, .33
    17-18, .29

    And here’s the correlation between 5v5 SF60 and GF60 over the same period:

    13-14, .60
    14-15, .61
    15-16, .49
    16-17, .52
    17-18, .31

    Volume shooting is becoming less predictive of scoring than it’s been in the past.

    Im not surprised the correlation is not strong between corsi and goals and shots and goals.

    Way back, I looked at the correlation of shots from the high danger area with scoring. It was stronger than shots, but not by much.

    Just now, for fun, I did the correlation between expected goals and goals and got this over the last 5 years
    .49
    .63
    .43
    .68
    .40

    I believe expected goals is a decent measurement for defense and offense as it eliminates any goalie involvement but any correlation between expected goals and goals is not great as i found out a few years back with high danger shots.

    If every shot was equal and every goalie had the same level of skill as those shooter tudor goalies, then the correlation between shots and goals would be near 100%

    But that is not the case.

    1. All shots are not equal. And every shot from the high danger area is also not equal. even though shots from in close have a better chance of going than a shot from far out, location is just one variable in the equation. Type of shot, quickness of getting shot away, odd man rush shot, one timer shot, screened shot,etc, all together change the value of a shot or the possibility of a shot going in

    2. All goalies are not equal. Even if every shot was equal, the fact that goalies are not equal in skill, would still throw off a possible correlation between shots and goals.

  83. Drew says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Stauffer said something to the effect of waiting to see how Bouchard does in 7-10 games and then making an addition if he doesn’t work out right away.

    Also has talked a lot about Barrie as a target when he’s UFA in 2 years. He’ll be turning 29 shortly after. I don’t like how this one’s turned out with Lucic.

    Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh, California sunlight
    Sweet Calcutta rain
    Honolulu starbright
    The song remains the same

  84. Primetime says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    That would make zero sense. The fact that Barrie has 2 years left on the contract makes him attractive now, to shelter Bouchard until he’s ready to take over the reins at that time. Of course, the only asset we have to get Barrie now would be Bouchard himself….

  85. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Primetime,

    Everything that’s ever peddled has to do with a player being a “Western Canadian kid”

    Maybe there’s been interest shown from Barrie, like there was from Looch

  86. knighttown says:

    vangolf: Left handed golfer here and very right hand dominant in life.The explanation that works best for me is that I play golf right handed from the left side.I grew up playing competitive tennis and I feel my golf swing is me hitting a backhand, while most righties are hitting forehands.

    That’s really interesting. I’m guessing your miss is a fade? I’m extremely right hand dominant…shoot right in hockey, golf, baseball, tennis, writing…my left hand is almost useless. I’ve always battled a hook. It’s good now but the demons are still in there.

    My biggest issue was putting. Did much better left-hand low but could never fully feel confident that the damned right hand wouldn’t take over at clutch time. The life saver for me is the claw grip. In my mind it fully embraces the right hand so I don’t need to try and keep everything calm which has proven to be tough.

  87. Munny says:

    theWaxCollector: I 100% agree

    The guy is fast and has some skill.
    I believe after 10 games the forward lines, based on merit, will be:

    Nuge-McDavid-Aberg
    Rieder-Drai-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Strome-Rattie
    Khaira-Brodziak-Kassian

    I even think that Khaira may pass Lucic if he continues to improve, and Lucic doesn’t rebound

    He and Aberg have versatility so who knows, but I’m guessing Rieder will play RW.

    I am enjoying the lack of Caggiula in your line-up though.

  88. VOR says:

    The handedness question Melvis has taken us into interesting areas.

    I had no idea that I wasn’t the only person who changes hands between sports.

    I am a weakly dominant lefty. Though part of that was having left handedness beaten out of me. But thinking about it soccer (the first sport I played with any skill) I always pick the foot I am going to dribble, kick, or pass with in flow and with no preference for one foot or the other . I switch hands in tennis based on my opponent and sometimes within a point. I switch hit in baseball. I change hands in all the throwing events. In Pony League I pitched with either arm and when playing football I will throw with either.

    But I golf left and if hitting for power in baseball bat left. As I’ve said before, when I tried to switch to D from goal when my knee gave out I played either side of the ice and shot with either hand. I have, as a result, a hard time understanding why handedness matters in choosing defencemen. As a goalie I am a leftie, though I learned the position as a rightie. Playing right never felt totally natural and around 16 I changed.

    The playing goal and a lot of the rest of my screwed up handedness is the result of coaching, equipment availability and what athletes I pretended to be when I was growing up. I am wondering how many of you were, like me, not given a chance to do it your way?

  89. Jethro Tull says:

    Brought up in England, I eat with my knife in my right hand and my fork in my left, and never put them down. The Father in Law will cut like me, then rest the knife and switch the fork to his right. But he golfs left, shoes horses right. The rest eat opposite to me, even though they are right handed, except my wife, who is left handed but eats right from a British point of view. So we were always sat together at family meals, as in next to, not across, because everyone thinks we eat weird.

    Growing up, I was so right foot dominant my dad banned me from shooting or crossing the football with my right foot. Every time I did, it was 10p off my pocket money.

  90. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    I’m right handed. I do everything right handed. My left hand is a vestigial structure

  91. digger50 says:

    Jaxon: Not me, I’m still hoping he can work out a fair deal with St Louis as much as a like him as an Oiler. I hope he signs for 1 x $1.7M there and has a solid enough gentleman’s agreement to get a longterm contract at a decent salary and maybe with a NMC structured to make a buyout senseless come January 1st. How low would his cap hit have to be to get a deal like that? Probably pretty damn low, but it would be a good place to start talks if you wanted to stay in your hometown where your son is.

    Maroon played great for the Oilers and continued that play with New Hersey. Playing in St Louis is a great story but….so many players miss thier families and do have to sacrifice. It’s not new, and pardon me if that sounds cold. To take a one year deal he is just as likely to be dealt At the deadline, St Lou’s happy to turn a 1.75 decent player into a third round pick. Or even if they have a playoff run, Patrick could be bouncing again. Great story to go to St Louis but I’m not sure why he’d bank on it.

    The time for Patrick to strike a deal is now. He’s holding some good cards, not sure what’s he’s after, but 1.75 is just not a good deal. I’m very interested to hear the final result.

  92. vangolf says:

    knighttown: That’s really interesting. I’m guessing your miss is a fade?I’m extremely right hand dominant…shoot right in hockey, golf, baseball, tennis, writing…my left hand is almost useless. I’ve always battled a hook. It’s good now but the demons are still in there.

    My biggest issue was putting. Did much better left-hand low but could never fully feel confident that the damned right hand wouldn’t take over at clutch time. The life saver for me is the claw grip. In my mind it fully embraces the right hand so I don’t need to try and keep everything calm which has proven to be tough.

    Quite the opposite…my miss is a hook (ie., topspin/rolling over the backhand). I also think my right eye is the dominant one and it makes sense (to me at least) to have it closer to the target.

  93. Professor Q says:

    I still have yet to meet someone who is ambisinister, however. Maybe you just wouldn’t know unless assessed?

  94. VOR says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Brought up in England, I eat with my knife in my right hand and my fork in my left, and never put them down.The Father in Law will cut like me, then rest the knife and switch the fork to his right.But he golfs left, shoes horses right.The rest eat opposite to me, even though they are right handed, except my wife, who is left handed but eats right from a British point of view.So we were always sat together at family meals, as in next to, not across, because everyone thinks we eat weird.

    Growing up, I was so right foot dominant my dad banned me from shooting or crossing the football with my right foot. Every time I did, it was 10p off my pocket money.

    I am realize even when eating I am ambidextrous. I just use whatever implement is handy. Though occasionally my dominant left breaks through.

    So (long story) I am a cradle user of chopsticks. I was out with some Chinese friends and eating Japanese food and we are all using chopsticks. I was manipulating the chop sticks with my right. But when there were just grains of rice and fragments of food left I switched to my left. My dinner companions looked at me like I was a freak.

  95. Jethro Tull says:

    Also, when my wife first visited the UK, we went to a wool shop in the Yorkshire Dales. She signed a piece of paper and was taken aback when the teller called her ‘cack-handed’. My mum and dad still remember the left handed kids being made to write right handed in school.

  96. admiralmark says:

    I think they’re going to regret not signing Rieder to a longer term deal. I could see him taking off possibly alongside Drai.

  97. VOR says:

    Professor Q:
    I still have yet to meet someone who is ambisinister, however. Maybe you just wouldn’t know unless assessed?

    I think it is unfair. Two left feet means you can’t dance. Ambisinister (two left hands) means you are clumsy with both hands. Ambidextrous actually means two right hands. Not fair at all to us lefties.

  98. VOR says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Also, when my wife first visited the UK, we went to a wool shop in the Yorkshire Dales.She signed a piece of paper and was taken aback when the teller called her ‘cack-handed’.My mum and dad still remember the left handed kids being made to write right handed in school.

    I was converted to writing right handed. Took me years to master. I still prefer my left.

  99. LMHF#1 says:

    admiralmark:
    I think they’re going to regret not signing Rieder to a longer term deal. I could see him taking off possibly alongside Drai.

    Don’t think this was an option based on commentary.

  100. Melvis says:

    VOR: I am wondering how many of you were, like me, not given a chance to do it your way?

    I was given a lot of leeway, but my mom never caught me at it.

  101. Melvis says:

    Where the hell is Chachi? There’s a goldmine in here.

  102. Melvis says:

    Didn’t Messier snap shots off his wrong foot? Shoots left off left foot dominant?

  103. workaroundaccount says:

    I think reider gets the strome treatment. 3line all year. TMac won’t let someone like caggiula burn him defensively over and over. He is probably our best pker, and will be logging a lot of minutes there with how many penalties we take.

  104. oi_2shoes says:

    Phil,

    Phil, where do you live in Germany? I’ve been living in Berlin for years and it’d be great to meet a fellow Oil fan sometime! I’m running a street hockey project too if you want to dm me, just google Berlin Street Hockey. Cheers!

  105. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    The rumours on Maroons contract are that there will be a 4 year contract extension in January. Aka the earliest the blues could fulfill the second half of a wink-wink agreement.

  106. workaroundaccount says:

    VOR: I am realize even when eating I am ambidextrous. I just use whatever implement is handy. Though occasionally my dominant left breaks through.

    So (long story) I am a cradle user of chopsticks. I was out with some Chinese friends and eating Japanese food and we are all using chopsticks. I was manipulating the chop sticks with my right. But when there were just grains of rice and fragments of food left I switched to my left. My dinner companions looked at me like I was a freak.

    Weird, but I can 1 up you. My wife drives with 2 hands, Freak.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    admiralmark:
    I think they’re going to regret not signing Rieder to a longer term deal. I could see him taking off possibly alongside Drai.

    Rieder was looking for a one-year deal. He was express that he wanted a one-year deal because he knows he had a down year and will put up better numbers.

  108. Munny says:

    Melvis:
    Where the hell is Chachi? There’s a goldmine in here.

    He was reamed out by Woodguy months ago, and has never been back,

    It is a sore spot amongst some of the community.

  109. theWaxCollector says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    It’s definitely possible Yam Roll outplays Rattie or Aberg. I just hope he spends the whole year in Bakersfield, both for development and expansion reasons. But if he makes the Oilers better I guess you have to do it.

  110. theWaxCollector says:

    Munny,

    Yeah I’m not too high on Caggiula. But if Lucic is gone, he’ll be fine parked on the 4th with Khaira moving up imo

  111. bendelson says:

    So… I absolutely adore the film “Best in Show”.
    I’m guessing nobody here was born with two left feet (literally) a la Gerry Fleck?

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    theWaxCollector:
    OriginalPouzar,

    It’s definitely possible Yam Roll outplays Rattie or Aberg. I just hope he spends the whole year in Bakersfield, both for development and expansion reasons. But if he makes the Oilers better I guess you have to do it.

    Whether Kailer is in the AHL or NHL doesn’t matter – this will be a year of pro for him and count towards the two exempt years.

    Bouchard is different, if he goes back to junior, it doesn’t count as a year, however, of course, if he plays 10 NHL games, it does.

    It shouldn’t matter anyways – if expansion goes as scheduled, both will be exempt as its within two years (and, from accounts, things are on schedule).

  113. Phil says:

    oi_2shoes:
    Phil,

    Phil, where do you live in Germany? I’ve been living in Berlin for years and it’d be great to meet a fellow Oil fan sometime! I’m running a street hockey project too if you want to dm me, just google Berlin Street Hockey. Cheers!

    Thanks for asking but I live in western Germany about 500km from Berlin 😉

  114. Phil says:

    Munny: Phil

    Thanks 🙂

    some interesting phrases that stood out for me from the Rieder interview (https://www.eishockeynews.de/artikel/2018/07/09/bei-den-oilers-hat-alles-gepasst-und-sich-richtig-angefuehlt.html):

    – he confirmed that there were a few longer term offers from other teams which he rejected because he wanted to prove his skills on a one year deal (sounds pretty motivated to me – best reason to sign a one year deal)
    – after being asked again why he didn´t sign another deal with more term and/or money he replied that he was looking for the best fit which means a roster with good centers and shallow winger depth. so the oilers made most sense to him (literally he is saying “I am viewing this contract as a stepping stone […] I want to prove myself on this oilers roster.”
    – being asked about Leon´s reaction to his signing he replied that he actually was exchanging some text messages with Leon and Leon was asking him to join the oilers (lol). At this point of time he already made the decision to become an oiler but it was not yet anounced by any media. So Leon was a bit confused when he replied: “I already am an Oiler.” 😉

  115. rickithebear says:

    Shooting % regresses to the corsi HD density that turn into open shots.
    A player like Eberle with elite penetration rates and puck elevation to open space is never going to have a low career shooting %.

    We had years of silly discussion about regressing to some number related to the concept of PDO.
    When in reality you see tough penetrates with high shooting% and elite perimeter volume shooters with low shooting %. Thier are a multitude of shooter permutations.
    Assuming all players penetrate the same and target open space the same (Which PDO does) is Bullshit.

    Thier are 29-34sh/gm
    I want as much Goal potential from 48min of even as possible.
    I have argued this for years.
    Goal potential now discussed as xGF years later.

    My concept of HD and open shot defence.
    Is also in parallel with observed ability of high sh% players

  116. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    and as WG pointed out earlier – McDavid’s shot metrics with Nuge were actually very low compared to the others.

    As anticipated, you are over-stating Nuge’s impact on McDavid.

    Having watched some of the goals scored while they were together I would go so far as to say there are some things that math does not explain when we look at generational talent. The difference can be pronounced! Your answer is that what you can not quantify is overstating !

  117. rickithebear says:

    Think of HD penetrating open space shooters as modern chemo cocktails designed for specific geno type cancer cells. Minimal volume needed with higher success rates.

    Think of volume shooters as highly unsuccessful mass chem. But when it does work it is highly effective. (Ovechkin)

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I noticed the same thing in the TOI against elites.

    One of the main things I hope McLellan focuses on a bit more this year is line matching – he seems completely uninterested in matching lines.I understand what I think his premise is (no need to get McDavid away from tough matchups as he’ll win those match-ups in any event), however, when he’s not in one of his crazy supernova streaks, and isn’t dominating shift after shift, it would be nice if McLellan can work to get him away from the Vlasics and the Kadris.

    The Oilers were really bad on line changes last season imo. Perhaps part of the thing is the team didn’t handle rolling lines well, so how can you actually dog whistle players on and off without creating chaos? More chaos really.

    Same as complaints about Babcock. They are using the coaching techniques they’ve learned to get the colts trained enough to be more sophisticated in game.

  119. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    rickithebear,

    Who’s the unheralded diamond in the rough who meets these criteria that is as yet identified, and you’d recommend?

  120. Atc-Nate says:

    workaroundaccount: Weird, but I can 1 up you. My wife drives with 2 hands, Freak.

    I drive with either leg. No hands. #1up 😉

    My wife drives with both hands… very poorly. Haha

  121. theWaxCollector says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for clearing that up for me

  122. Munny says:

    Phil,

    Thank you, kind sir!

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    VOR,

    I’m right handed.I do everything right handed.My left hand is a vestigial structure

    Same. I use the left to block bottles and blows from my family and friends.

    I have noticed and innordinate number of great shooters, given the league is ~90% left shooting and I believe about the same % are right hand dominant, are righties.

    I think it’s because the stronger and more coordinated hand is actually aiming and adding extra power to the stick swing.

  124. Atc-Nate says:

    Also, I have a question:

    Todd McLellan: “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”

    I’m going to make an assumption here that Todd actually said those words… here’s the question:

    Don’t you think that Todd, as a coach in the highest skilled league in the WORLD, should be using every tool available to him in order to analyze talent and improve his ability to judge chemistry and team synergy?

    Let me put it to you this way. In my line of work (air traffic control) we judge a tie between two aircraft with one of two tools:

    1.) Distance to a common point calculated with current speed
    2.) Time estimated to arrive at a common point based on current speed

    In training controllers, we teach to use a time estimate and then as aircraft approach the common point, we switch to miles and math. Both methods. The best controllers use both tools.

    Why in heck wouldn’t a coach, considered to be one of the top 31 coaches in the world (?!), not know what Corsi and Fenwick, and every tool that could possibly be available to him, are? Even if it only aids in the gut feeling he is using or his own eyesight, wouldn’t you want to explore every avenue possible to better yourself?

    That kills me. Granted, I like math and analytics. But even used in conjunction with the eye test, it would have to help even the best of coaches.

    Am I completely off base here?

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Phil: Thanks for asking but I live in western Germany about 500km from Berlin

    Approaches the top of the list of cities I’ve visited – the Jewish Museum in Berlin was sensational.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Atc-Nate:
    Also, I have a question:

    Todd McLellan: “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”

    I’m going to make an assumption here that Todd actually said those words… here’s the question:

    Don’t you think that Todd, as a coach in the highest skilled league in the WORLD, should be using every tool available to him in order to analyze talent and improve his ability to judge chemistry and team synergy?

    Let me put it to you this way. In my line of work (air traffic control) we judge a tie between two aircraft with one of two tools:

    1.) Distance to a common point calculated with current speed
    2.) Time estimated to arrive at a common point based on current speed

    In training controllers, we teach to use a time estimate and then as aircraft approach the common point, we switch to miles and math. Both methods. The best controllers use both tools.

    Why in heck wouldn’t a coach, considered to be one of the top 31 coaches in the world (?!), not know what Corsi and Fenwick, and every tool that could possibly be available to him, are? Even if it only aids in the gut feeling he is using or his own eyesight, wouldn’t you want to explore every avenue possible to better yourself?

    That kills me. Granted, I like math and analytics. But even used in conjunction with the eye test, it would have to help even the best of coaches.

    Am I completely off base here?

    Yes, he said those words, I heard them from his mouth.

    At the same time, I don’t believe for a second that he doesn’t know what they are and that he doesn’t use such metrics in his game planning and bench management.

    We know for a fact that the organization uses advanced metrics in its decisions – for example Chiarelli talked about Brodziak’s “knocked down cross-ice passes” as being 18th in the NHL on the PK (or something similar).

  127. CapeBretonOilers says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR,

    Cheers fellow Cape Breton Oiler fan

  128. Pandaup says:

    Atc-Nate,

    I believe the coach was being sarcastic here. He knows Corsi and Fenwick are in part dependent on shot volume.

  129. Melvis says:

    Munny,

    That’s unfortunate. I kind of remember the day. Must have missed some of the comments. In this case, ignorance is bliss.

  130. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    and as WG pointed out earlier – McDavid’s shot metrics with Nuge were actually very low compared to the others.

    As anticipated, you are over-stating Nuge’s impact on McDavid.

    Did you not watch the worlds? Nuge and McD cook together,and think on the same wavelength. Nuge is the only option in the near future for Connor unless they make a trade to get out of cap hell. There is no other top six winger on the team.

  131. Lowetide says:

    Atc-Nate:

    I’m going to make an assumption here that Todd actually said those words

    I have never credited anyone with a quote on this blog or any written content that didn’t come from the individual credited.

  132. Georges says:

    Jethro Tull: The problem of his team missing the playoffs and somebody had to pay.In Edmonton, it was the assistants.In Calgary, the coaching team.But as a wise man once said on here, a GM gets one freebie coach firing…..

    Treliving solves the problem of his team not making the playoffs by firing the coach who took his team to the playoffs last season and hiring the coach who has never taken a team to the playoffs in any season. They do seem to share a philosophy on how they want the game played, but Peters’ NHL credentials are worse than Gulutzan’s. Maybe somebody’s going to have to pay again some time soon.

  133. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: for example Chiarelli talked about Brodziak’s “knocked down cross-ice passes” as being 18th in the NHL on the PK (or something similar).

    Thats a stat that Sportloqiq uses. https://lowetide.ca/2018/07/07/boys-of-summer/comment-page-1/#comment-751290

    As for the discussion of McClellan and corsi and shot attempts. Most public databases call shot attempts “corsi” while Sportloqiq calls shot attempts “shot attempts”. And if the Oilers are using Sportloqiq, they are probably just saying “shot attempts” and not “corsi” in their analytics.

    Which reminds of a chat I had with a former co-worker ( he is best friends with Babcock, has gone on the Dads trip ( this was when Mike was in Detroit) that each team has every years as Mikes Dad passed away years ago) As we were discussing hockey, some advanced stats were talked about and we talked about corsi and fenwick. He said ” why do they call shot attempts, “corsi”? Just call shot attempts, shot attempts and be done with it. Why make it confusing?” I didnt really have an answer, cause I agreed. So I think there is decent segment of the hockey world who have the same sentiment about using corsi instead of shot attempts. McClellan probably falls into this group. McClellan knows what Corsi is, he just calls it “shot attempts”.

  134. --hudson-- says:

    Phil,

    Another curio on the Reider contract according to capfriendly, he will be an RFA next summer. Kind of strange he would put himself in this position so soon after being an early UFA. Nice result for the Oilers though.

  135. Georges says:

    frjohnk: Im not surprised the correlation is not strong between corsi and goals and shots and goals.

    Way back, I looked at the correlation of shots from the high danger area with scoring.It was stronger than shots, but not by much.

    Just now, for fun, I did the correlation between expected goals and goals and got this over the last 5 years
    .49
    .63
    .43
    .68
    .40

    I believe expected goals is a decent measurement for defense and offense as it eliminates any goalie involvement but any correlation between expected goals and goals is not great as i found out a few years back with high danger shots.

    If every shot was equal and every goalie had the same level of skill as those shooter tudor goalies, then the correlation between shots and goals would be near 100%

    But that is not the case.

    1. All shots are not equal. And every shot from the high danger area is also not equal. even though shots from in close have a better chance of going than a shot from far out, location is just one variable in the equation. Type of shot, quickness of getting shot away, odd man rush shot, one timer shot, screened shot,etc, all together change the value of a shot or the possibility of a shot going in

    2.All goalies are not equal.Even if every shot was equal, the fact that goalies are not equal in skill, would stillthrow offa possible correlation between shots and goals.

    The correlation isn’t strong. Most of the variance in goals is unaccounted for by the variance in shots. All the variables you describe in points 1 and 2 have always been in play; for as long as hockey has been played, I imagine. What’s different is that the relationship between shots (and shot attempts) taken and goals scored is falling below the level of statistical significance. That’s new.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Did you not watch the worlds? Nuge and McD cook together,and think on the same wavelength. Nuge is the only option in the near future for Connor unless they make a trade to get out of cap hell. There is no other top six winger on the team.

    I watched almost every minute of every Canadian game. I’ve also learned over the years to put very little stock in to play against less than NHL competition (early preseason games, world championships, etc.). Remember the beautiful chemistry between POS and Comrie?

    With that said, I don’t deny for a second great chemistry between McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins – I simply think one poster in particular vastly over-states their meaning to each other and I was responding to his express post that Nugent-Hopkins increased McDavid’s shot volume which was proven incorrect.

    Also, if we take the position that Nuge is the only other top 6 players besides Leon and Drai, there is a very reasonable argument that he should be playing with Drai and not McDavid.

  137. frjohnk says:

    Georges: What’s different is that the relationship between shots (and shot attempts) taken and goals scored is falling below the level of statistical significance. That’s new.

    We wouldnt know that unless we had the data from more than just a few years back. I think with all the variables, we would see data points are all over the place over the years.

  138. Georges says:

    frjohnk: We wouldnt know that unless we had the data from more than just a few years back.I think with all the variables, we would see data points are all over the place over the years.

    Here are the correlations going back to 07-08:

    07-08, .28
    08-09, .43
    09-10, .59
    10-11, .54
    11-12, .68
    12-13, .13
    13-14, .60
    14-15, .61
    15-16, .49
    16-17, .52
    17-18, .31

    I’m curious. How would you interpret that?

    (Not sure if we’re on the same page for statistical significance. I’m using this:

    t = r * sqrt((n – 2) / (1 – r^2))

    With n = 31 teams and r = .31, I get t = 1.76.)

  139. frjohnk says:

    Georges: Here are the correlations going back to 07-08:

    07-08, .28
    08-09, .43
    09-10, .59
    10-11, .54
    11-12, .68
    12-13, .13
    13-14, .60
    14-15, .61
    15-16, .49
    16-17, .52
    17-18, .31

    I know you dont have it, but I would love to see data that was further back.
    We are on the same page, that there is not a strong correlation. Where we differ I guess is you said “What’s different is that the relationship between shots (and shot attempts) taken and goals scored is falling below the level of statistical significance. That’s new.”

    I just dont think we have enough data to say it is new. How do we know that data in the 90’s or 70’s or the 40’s wouldnt show something similar?

    Georges: (Not sure if we’re on the same page for statistical significance. I’m using this:

    t = r * sqrt((n – 2) / (1 – r^2))

    With n = 31 teams and r = .31, I get t = 1.76.)

    We are on different pages. You are further ahead than me. My last Stats Class was in 2001 and while I am just a few classes short of an Economics Degree, as a firefighter I have never had to use much for stats. Just spray white stuff on the red stuff. Thumbs up for more pressure, thumbs down for less. (OK maybe a bit more than that 🙂

    I have only recently dived back into some stats because of my love of hockey and stats. Id say Im still pretty green and back relearning some of those stats.

    We dont always agree, but I enjoy reading your comments, as you are a smart individual who puts alot of thought (and most times a lot of sense, most times, not all 🙂 ) in your comments. Because of guys like you, I believe I am a more informed poster.

  140. Scungilli Slushy says:

    –hudson–:
    Phil,

    Another curio on the Reider contract according to capfriendly, he will be an RFA next summer.Kind of strange he would put himself in this position so soon after being an early UFA.Nice result for the Oilers though.

    The Connor effect is growing, as it should.

  141. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Georges: The correlation isn’t strong. Most of the variance in goals is unaccounted for by the variance in shots. All the variables you describe in points 1 and 2 have always been in play; for as long as hockey has been played, I imagine. What’s different is that the relationship between shots (and shot attempts) taken and goals scored is falling below the level of statistical significance. That’s new.

    Would changes in how the rules are called factor in? It directly affects on ice results, and with the NHL is ‘fluid’.

  142. godot10 says:

    –hudson–:
    Phil,

    Another curio on the Reider contract according to capfriendly, he will be an RFA next summer.Kind of strange he would put himself in this position so soon after being an early UFA.Nice result for the Oilers though.

    Rieder can opt for arbitration next year to get to UFA status in two years. Arbitration will get him paid if he has a good year and be the hammer to get the Oilers to negotiate

  143. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk,

    – you bring up a good point. Terms like Corsi Fenwick pdo really do alienate a lot of fans. Such stupid elitist insular insider bunk.

    – calling Corsi a shot attempt that’s the language that Bankers like me would beat up guys like pouzar who were trying to big time the clients with fancy terms when plain language works best.

  144. Georges says:

    frjohnk,

    I see. You thought I meant new as in never happened before. I meant new as in hasn’t happened recently; or hasn’t happened in the hockey analytics era. 07-08 was weaker than last season, after all.

    The formula thing may have seemed obnoxious. Just meant it as clarification. I try to avoid technical talk with people who show no interest. You’ve shown interest so I thought it was worth a shot.

    It’s just game.

  145. Munny says:

    Melvis: That’s unfortunate.

    Yup, very unfortunate. Chachi is missed.

  146. Munny says:

    –hudson–:
    Phil,

    Another curio on the Reider contract according to capfriendly, he will be an RFA next summer.Kind of strange he would put himself in this position so soon after being an early UFA.Nice result for the Oilers though.

    I didn’t know this was possible. Kind of like being a born-again virgin, lol.

  147. Scungilli Slushy says:

    frjohnk: Thats a stat that Sportloqiq uses. https://lowetide.ca/2018/07/07/boys-of-summer/comment-page-1/#comment-751290

    As for the discussion of McClellan and corsi and shot attempts.Most public databases call shot attempts “corsi” while Sportloqiq calls shot attempts “shot attempts”.And if the Oilers are using Sportloqiq, they are probably just saying “shot attempts” and not “corsi” in their analytics.

    Which reminds of a chat I had with a former co-worker ( he is best friends with Babcock, has gone on the Dads trip ( this was when Mike was in Detroit) that each team has every years as Mikes Dad passed away years ago) As we were discussing hockey, some advanced stats were talked about and we talked about corsi and fenwick.He said ” why do they call shot attempts, “corsi”?Just call shot attempts, shot attempts and be done with it. Why make it confusing?”I didnt really have an answer, cause I agreed.So I think there is decent segment of the hockey world who have the same sentiment about using corsi instead of shot attempts.McClellan probably falls into this group.McClellan knows what Corsi is, he just calls it “shot attempts”.

    There is no reason, out of the Oilogosphere’s respect for Vic Ferrari/Barnes to do that. He brought the thinking around a basic part of the game (taking shots) into the spotlight, at least to the fan.

    I think MSM derived a lot from these various Oiler blogs (mostly defunct, Cheers LT) and being respectful carried the terminology forward. It is probably to become a relic soon as more tech becomes available, but we’ll know.

  148. digger50 says:

    Off topic but then sometimes we digress late in the day.

    Netflix has out the Tonya Harding story called “I Tonya”. Pretty cheesy to start but an incredible soundtrack kept me engaged. Not a great movie but quite an interesting story and the movie seems to grow on you as it moves along.

    Found myself wondering if any posters here had any interesting perspectives about that story, maybe something learned as that story played out in real time?

  149. Georges says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Would changes in how the rules are called factor in? It directly affects on ice results, and with the NHL is ‘fluid’.

    Interested. How do you figure?

  150. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Terms like Corsi Fenwick pdo really do alienate a lot of fans

    Yup.

    And I think it also pisses off the some of the Old Boys Club of hockey reporters who do not like change and can not or are not willing to adapt.

    They do not like the fact that some nerdy kids have pushed their way into the OBC space.

    Personally, I think some of the nerdy kids (The Athletic) have pushed their way past most of the OBC.

  151. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I watched almost every minute of every Canadian game.I’ve also learned over the years to put very little stock in to play against less than NHL competition (early preseason games, world championships, etc.). Remember the beautiful chemistry between POS and Comrie?

    With that said, I don’t deny for a second great chemistry between McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins – I simply think one poster in particular vastly over-states their meaning to each other and I was responding to his express post that Nugent-Hopkins increased McDavid’s shot volume which was proven incorrect.

    Also, if we take the position that Nuge is the only other top 6 players besides Leon and Drai, there is a very reasonable argument that he should be playing with Drai and not McDavid.

    I agree OP.

    I love the Nuge/Connor duo as well but it may be broken up for the same reason Drai/Connor we’re broken up – to ice a better overall team.

    That’s Why I was hoping for Maroon. Also why I’d like to see Strome up
    On RW for 10 games.

  152. frjohnk says:

    Georges: I try to avoid technical talk with people who show no interest. You’ve shown interest so I thought it was worth a shot.

    Keep bringing it up. I have the interest.

  153. Atc-Nate says:

    Lowetide: I have never credited anyone with a quote on this blog or any written content that didn’t come from the individual credited.

    My apologies, I didn’t mean to come across as questioning. When stating my case, I typically start with any assumptions I’ve made. In this case, because I didn’t hear Todd say it, I am assuming a diligent honorable man such as yourself DOES exactly what you just stated that you do. Pretty sure I’ve read 75% of your posts in the last 5 years plus and half worship the ground you walk on and would never question your quoting integrity. 🙂

    If you ever wanna take a look around the Edmonton Area Control Center for Air Traffic Control, hit me up, I work shift work so can make almost anything work. Also, Ilya Ostrovsky is a golfing buddy of mine if you need a reference point. :). For the record, that goes for anyone else who might have aviation interest, (VOR) haha

  154. Wilde says:

    Georges:

    I had been told of this phenomenon by people who I trusted, but hadn’t seen the actual numbers so thank you for posting this

  155. Wilde says:

    Did anyone see Kunitz roast our defensemen in an NicholsonHockey interview?

  156. frjohnk says:

    Wilde:
    Did anyone see Kunitz roast our defensemen in an NicholsonHockey interview?

    There is debate about who the team is.

    Its between Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver.

    We can only guess it was the Oilers that he was implying.

    But will say, I wouldnt be surprised to hear NHL players say that the Oilers D is not good.

  157. JimmyV1965 says:

    Oilman99: Did you not watch the worlds? Nuge and McD cook together,and think on the same wavelength. Nuge is the only option in the near future for Connor unless they make a trade to get out of cap hell. There is no other top six winger on the team.

    I think you can make a strong case that Drai can use a legit top 6 winger more than McDavid.

  158. HT Joe says:

    JimmyV1965: I think you can make a strong case that Drai can use a legit top 6 winger more than McDavid.

    I think we can all make a strong case that the Oilers can use 4 legit top 6 wingers. :\

  159. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    Did anyone see Kunitz roast our defensemen in an NicholsonHockey interview?

    Yet Kunitz signs with the Hawks. I may be looking at this through Oiler coloured glasses, but isn’t their defence worse than ours. Am I wrong here?

  160. frjohnk says:

    JimmyV1965: Yet Kunitz signs with the Hawks. I may be looking at this through Oiler coloured glasses, but isn’t their defence worse than ours. Am I wrong here?

    *grabs Jimmys glasses, puts them on upside down*

    Yup, I agree with you.

  161. Wilde says:

    frjohnk: There is debate about who the team is.

    Its between Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver.

    We can only guess it was the Oilers that he was implying.

    But will say, I wouldnt be surprised to hear NHL players say that the Oilers D is not good.

    I’m certain it was the Oilers. Vanouver’s not winning anything anyways, and I think NHL forwards respect Calgary’s guys.

    It’s all about his perception though. Chicago’s defense looks worse than Edmonton’s to me, not sure if that’s actually accurate… but by some models Keith literally had a negative G/WAR season and Seabrook’s decline has been noted by people smarter than me for some time.

    They’re been spending first rounders on D though, but this looks like a rough patch for that half of the roster going forward and I wouldn’t trade ours for theirs in a million years.

  162. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: I think you can make a strong case that Drai can use a legit top 6 winger more than McDavid.

    Running Rieder and Puljujarvi there is the only option from my view and that’s saying something.

  163. JimmyV1965 says:

    frjohnk: *grabs Jimmys glasses, puts them on upside down*

    Yup, I agree with you.

    LOL

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: Running Rieder and Puljujarvi there is the only option from my view and that’s saying something.

    I get what your saying. But msybe you run those guys with McDavid. Doesn’t really matter I guess. We need someone to step up. I frickin love that Reider is making a big bet on himself though.

  165. JimmyV1965 says:

    I guess Kunitz is right though. We’re not winning with this dmen group. But I like our chances of making the playoffs in the Pacific much more than Chicago’s in the Central. Our Stanley hopes don’t really come into shape until we get meaningful impact from a couple guys amongst the group of Bear, Bouchard, Jones, Berglund, Lagesson and Samorukov. That’s a nice group of prospects though.

  166. Georges says:

    Wilde:
    Did anyone see Kunitz roast our defensemen in an NicholsonHockey interview?

    “ … a team in Canada out west that wanted to sign him that’s been a good team off and on.”

    That’s not us. Unless his agent thinks off and on means the same thing as offfffffffff and on.

    I’m going to guess that Kunitz is a bright man and that was his assessment of the Flames.

  167. Wilde says:

    Georges: “ … a team in Canada out west that wanted to sign him that’s been a good team off and on.”

    That’s not us. Unless his agent thinks off and on means the same thing as offfffffffff and on.

    I’m going to guess that Kunitz is a bright man and that was his assessment of the Flames.

    I think the likelyhood that his agent misused(by our interpretation) a turn of phrase is slightly higher than the chances that Edmonton’s group of defensemen is more respected than Calgary’s by an outside NHL forward.

    Not by much though, could be either easily.

    I’d wager Larsson is highly respected though.

  168. Wilde says:

    Also just noticing Linus Nyman didn’t even attend an NHL team’s training camp.

    If the Oilers are enamoured with Maksimov’s scoring, they should absolutely sign Nyman, who’s off to Finland now.

    He’s a month younger than Maksimov and is a more potent goalscorers 5v5 (33 in 67 games for 2nd in the OHL among U19 players)

    Plays on a strong team but has good involvement percentage so he’s not being carried, and also has a strong positive GF% Rels and WOWYs.

    To relate to LT’s post about shooters, he’s over 3 per game with that pack.

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The Connor effect is growing, as it should.

    Connor factor or Chiarelli factor (i.e. few other wingers to compete with him for top 6 minutes)?

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: Running Rieder and Puljujarvi there is the only option from my view and that’s saying something.

    Nuge/McDavid/Rattie (or Yamamoto)
    Khaira (or Lucic)/Leon/Jesse
    Lucic (or Khaira)/Strome/Rieder
    Aberg (or Caggulia)/Brodziak/Kassian

    Caggulia (or Aberg)

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Benning
    Sekera/Russell

    Gravel/Bouchard

    ——————————–

    Rieder (or Aberg)/McDavid/Rattie (or Yamamoto)
    Nuge/Leon/Puljijarvi
    Lucic/Strome/Aberg (or Rieder)
    Khaira/Brodziak/Kassian

    Caggulia

    ——————

    Nuge/McDavid/Strome
    Lucic/Leon/Puljijarvi (or Rieder)
    Caggulia/Khaira/Rieder (or Puljijarvi)
    Aberg/Brogziak/Kassian

    Rattie
    (In this one, I may have Jesse on line 3 as he and Lucic have not worked well together).

  171. Phil says:

    –hudson–: Phil,
    Another curio on the Reider contract according to capfriendly, he will be an RFA next summer. Kind of strange he would put himself in this position so soon after being an early UFA. Nice result for the Oilers though.

    Which is in my eyes proving once again how much he was after this opportunity to showcase himself in Edmonton.
    Really curious about his upcoming season

  172. Professor Q says:

    Phil: Which is in my eyes proving once again how much he was after this opportunity to showcase himself in Edmonton.
    Really curious about his upcoming season

    Hopefully not just using Edmonton as a stepping stone, but as a chance to develop a successful relationship with his countrymate and teammate, and bring success to him and Draisaitl and the team for years to come.

    I certainly wouldn’t mind if his chemistry with Leon continued here and Edmonton rewarded him with a respectful contract afterward.

  173. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    CapeBretonOilers,

    Right back at ya!

  174. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk: Yup.

    And I think it also pisses off the some of the Old Boys Club of hockey reporters who do not like change and can not or are not willing to adapt.

    They do not like the fact that some nerdy kids have pushed their way into the OBC space.

    Personally, I think some of the nerdy kids (The Athletic) have pushed their way past most of the OBC.

    – The focus on stats, and quantitative things other than: “feeling it today”, “good boards”, “boys played hard”, “team really wants it” is welcome.

    – I’ve been harping on LT to look into some kind of in-game intermission format. The television coverage is just awful in intermissions, if you are looking for some insight IMO, for the most part

    – I’d pay to have LT and some guest break down the game, with analysis between periods

    – Not sure if this would feasible though?

  175. rickithebear says:

    Yeti: He screwed up and missed training just when he seemed to be gaining some traction… Shame – lets hope he comes through in training camp and any former sins are forgiven by the coaching staff. Would be a strong value contract if so!
    https://oilersnation.com/2018/03/20/the-oilers-arent-happy-with-pontus-aberg/

    Tmac forgot to coach last year.

    Mgmt was real mad at him.

    So they sent him a message!

  176. Melvis says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – The focus on stats, and quantitative things other than: “feeling it today”, “good boards”, “boys played hard”, “team really wants it” is welcome.

    – I’ve been harping on LT to look into some kind of in-game intermission format.The television coverage is just awful in intermissions, if you are looking for some insight IMO, for the most part

    – I’d pay to have LT and some guest break down the game, with analysis between periods

    – Not sure if this would feasible though?

    In a way, intermissions are supposed to awful. I use them for:

    -bathroom break

    -settle tits

    -refreshing drinks

    -refreshing popcorn

    -feeding the cat

    Otherwise. it’s a 3 hour haul.

    I don’t want to rain on the idea necessarily.

    The concept, production wise, is very feasible. It’s basically a Wayne and Garth or Bob and Doug McKenzie video feed from anywhere, including local cable – uploaded to any platform or site. I can’t speak for LT, but you’re asking him and guest(s) to be on the ball for 82 games. Plus playoffs.

    As a creative endeavour, I find the possibilities endlessly fascinating. As a practical matter, maybe a different story.

  177. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Melvis,

    – True – maybe 82 games is a lot. He might also have limitations, given his other roles and employees

    – But yes a “Bob and Doug MacKenzie” live feed I think there’s a niche market that could be lucrative for LT if executed properly…

    – Also how do I find out about your Vernissage at the end of this summer Melvis?

  178. russ99 says:

    godot10: But McDavid began shooting more, NOT for the reasons McLellan gave in the quote, but because he was open more, because of Nugent-Hopkins (and McDavid’s) elite passing skills opening up time and space for imore and better looks off the rush.

    The power play was still crap.

    The volume shooting thing only works if we get multiple shots per offensive zone entry, which means puck retrieval, puck retention and finding open areas to get clear shots via the cycle.

    And yes this is also true if we get a quality shot off the rush.

    When we played the better teams this year, this was a real problem, and it looks to be a problem this year too.

    Maybe adding Rieder and Brodziak help, but we need players higher in the order to excel at puck retrieval and retention as well. I hope Puljujarvi has worked on his strength this offseason, since he has the chops to play the retrieve and cycle role off the rush shot with Nuge and McDavid but was too often worked off the puck last year.

    I think you guys are putting way too much stock for that first line with Rattie in small sample sizes after playoff elimination, and also the fact that McDavid’s scoring surge had just as much to do with him being healthy the first time in the calendar year.

  179. russ99 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You can support numbers-based hockey analysis and have a lesser view of Corsi and Fenwick due to:

    a. you’re dividing total shots by 10 skaters on the ice, so it’s not as exact as a vs. stat like pitcher vs. catcher in baseball, and there’s roughly 25-40 shots per team in every hockey game so it’s harder to find the middle areas that show value.

    b. when it’s used as an all-encompassing player value stat by those who haven’t thought it through, like OPS in baseball.

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