Hallelujah, Amen

If you’re looking for good signs, look to the draft and the group of players coming up behind Connor McDavid. If the Oilers had drafted in 2013 and 2014 like they have in 2017 and 2018, the organization would be on a far more promising trajectory. Unless there’s a DeLorean hanging around, the past is past, but the future has some lovely notes and may have real sustain.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

The OHL is the best junior league in the world, forged by the GTHL, a universe of hockey that circles Toronto every winter. According to Wikipedia (I apologize but couldn’t find the information anywhere else), in 2011 there were 2,800 teams and 40,000 players in the GTHL. Ages range from 3-4 (Timbits) to U21. It’s a gigantic funnel, a melting pot of dreams and skills, and those youngsters combine to send the best of the best soaring to the highest highs available in the sport.

At the beginning of the 2016-17 NHL season, there were over 60 players from the GTHL on opening night rosters in the world’s best league. There are (at any given time) 713 players in the NHL (31 teams with 23-man rosters). The GTHL, not much shy of the size of the city I live in, feeds the NHL close to 10 percent of its entire population. Nothing compares to it in hockey terms. Edmonton’s share of these 60 players? Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse. Hallelujah, Amen.

Most of the information I’ve gleaned about McLeod since his draft day surrounds speed, skill and inconsistency. His scouting report is somewhat similar to Ryan Martindale when the Oilers drafted him in 2010.

  • Ryan Martindale in 2010: 61, 19-41-60 0.983
  • Ryan McLeod in 2018: 68, 26-44-70 1.03

Red Line compared Martindale to Ryan O’Marra and compared McLeod to Austin Watson. I like him as a prospect and the OHL is a supreme melting pot for prospects, but this isn’t a slam dunk and there’s a reason projected first rounders fall into the second round. Kirill Maksimov was chosen in the bowels of the draft but went from .57 points-per-game in his draft season to 1.29 in draft +1. If McLeod can deliver that kind of spike, we’re talking about a future top six forward with incredible wheels and substantial skills. It’s easy to love his speed, but math suggests we take a watchful approach on Mr. McLeod.

PATRIK SIIKANEN

The two late picks are interesting but it’s tough to get intel on them. Siikanen has good hands and can be a real distraction around the net, he is not blessed with great speed. Siikanen finished No. 20 in points-per-game among U18’s in the Jr. Sm-Liiga, posting 0.71 per game. Aapeli Rasanen posted .076 same league in his draft year 2016. Always bet against later picks but this is an interesting player.

THE NEWS IS OUT ALL OVER TOWN

Some great reporting from Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal is here, we’ll discuss Darnell Nurse tomorrow (honoring my 24-hour rule). In the meantime, click the link, good stuff there.

CURRENT STATE OF THE OILERS

Over the last few weeks, Edmonton added some nice prospects in the draft (Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and Olivier Rodrigue were all among the best at their position pre-draft) and at least one free agent (Tobias Rieder) who can grow with the group. Kyle Brodziak is a solid veteran addition.

When giving Peter Chiarelli credit for these things, it’s also important to note his previous moves contributed to the current cap crunch/roster holes combination the organization is living under today. After crushing June trades that sent away top draft picks in the enormous 2015 draft, that sent away Taylor Hall and then Jordan Eberle, the big June trade this year was for Hayden Hawkey. Oilers didn’t bleed by their own hand this summer.

The downside of all these things for Chiarelli is that his team remains unbalanced at a time when he and coach Todd McLellan are under enormous pressure. The upside is there’s talent bubbling under the surface, and the McDavid cluster (I count 97, 29, 93, 25, 77, 6, and hope 98, 83, 16 and 56 join the band) will continue to grow with useful youths who don’t cost the moon.

If the result of 2017-18 means keeping the draft picks (unlike 2014 and 2015), developing them (you go, Jay Woodcroft) and making smaller, astute free agent signings (Tobias Rieder) then I’m onboard. I do think the overall thrust of these moves is wise. It’s the right thing to do, although it doesn’t bring those 2015 draft picks back to Edmonton.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Friday morning with plenty of chat and lots of cool guests. Scheduled to appear, beginning at 10, TSN1260:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Prairie storms, CFL Live mic, Stampede, World Cup.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. Mr. Details will tell us why the Stampeders are so damned good and what the Eskimos can do to counter those slow starts (and injuries on defense).
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN. World Cup, Eskimos-Argos.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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175 Responses to "Hallelujah, Amen"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    Hope Nurse signs a bridge deal that takes him to the end of the Sekera contact ( 3 years). I believe that still makes him an RFA

  2. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Hope Nurse signs a bridge deal that takes him to the end of the Sekera contact ( 3 years).I believe that still makes him an RFA

    Three years is not good, because then Nurse could opt for arbitration to get to UFA status. Bridge deals for players who have accrued three years on the ELC should be two years max only.

  3. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer:
    Hope Nurse signs a bridge deal that takes him to the end of the Sekera contact ( 3 years).I believe that still makes him an RFA

    I have to admit, having your agent say that you’ll need way more than $5 million per for an 8 year deal (looking for $6 million likely), and that your team has cap issues which is preventing your interest in signing, sucks. It almost seems to be some leverage-building but the hinting at Nurse not wanting to be in Edmonton both hurts and really sucks.

    I mean, to my mind yesterday I did not think Edmonton had egregious issues. Yet if an agent is vocally using that as a threat and leverage, then maybe it really is the league-wide perception of Edmonton and their situation. I can admit when I’m wrong.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I read that Mattheson article last night and it was a disappointment and telling but the content not surprising.

    We know that Nurse is a confident young man and he had a very nice season even if a bit uneven. The man is confident in his skills and I have no doubt that he believes he will be a legit top pairing d-man very soon if he doesn’t believe he is already.

    I am not surprised he is not willing to sign for term under $5M.

    His 26 points don’t seem great until its noted that they were all even strength points which was 37th in the NHL for d-men. He was among the league leaders in even strength TOI/G and played tough/top line minutes and ended up a plus 15 on a team with a large negative goal differential (although not as large a negative at evens). He played a decent portion of those tough minutes with Kris Russell as a 1RW as well.

    I think the bridge will come in well north of $3M.

    Its a bit interesting to note that the Agent specifically mentioned the Koskinen signing as a reason for the lack of cap space.

  5. flea says:

    Nurse’s agent seems pissed. He brings up the Koskinen deal, I’m sure he thinks if the Oilers signed a regular league min backup they could have paid the $6M+ he wanted for Nurse on a long term deal.

    My take? The Oilers wanted to bridge Nurse. They don’t want to give him $6M, at least not yet. Still, looks like some hard feelings that Darnell has been left to last and has to take chicken scratch for two years.

    I don’t think Nurse will ever be an offensive guy, to be honest. I like the bet by the Oilers – make the player prove it.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really am starting to like the looks of the prospect pool at all levels (college to major junior to Europe to the AHL). I know that is not a strength, yet, however its starting to accumulate some depth and talent and if our GM and management group continues along this path it will be a strength within a few years.

    There are no “sure bets” (except Bouchard I guess) but lots of good bets, lots of talent and lots of players out performing their draft positions.

  7. Woogie63 says:

    in 2011 there were 2,800 teams and 40,000 players in the GTHL. Ages range from 3-4 (Timbits) to U21. It’s a gigantic funnel, a melting pot of dreams and skills, and those youngsters combine to send the best of the best soaring to the highest highs available in the sport.
    ———————————————————————————————————-

    To put this in context Minor SOCCER in Calgary (age 3-19) has +30,000 players (with ONE 11 v. 11 Field in the winter) I believe Edmonton has +36,000 minor players.

  8. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Yes but in 2 years we dont lose any contracts big contracts. In 3 years we lose Russell and Sekera contracts so we can pay him with that money

  9. Profit says:

    I don’t read the article as though Nurse is unhappy with Edmonton per se, but his agent is obviously ticked that they can’t get a long term deal right now. But as mentioned, I don’t know that the Oilers even want to do that.

  10. Bag of Pucks says:

    Nurse is rounding into a nice player but he did develop by sundial. Even if they had the cap space, seems premature to hand him the big money.

    Motivation has been a problem with this team at times and guaranteed lottery contracts have been speculated as one of the reasons why. Maybe bridge deal equals additional motivation?

  11. Profit says:

    leadfarmer,

    But in 2 years there will only be 1 year left on both of those contracts and they’ll be much easier to move/dispose of/bury/trade to Arizona and free up the money.

  12. Bag of Pucks says:

    Likely the succession plan is Nurse gets a 2 year bridge until Sekera comes off the books, at which point Darnell gets the big money if he’s firmly entrenched on that top pairing. Seems to make sense on the surface.

  13. jtblack says:

    “although it doesn’t bring those 2015 draft picks back to Edmonton.”

    Is still hurts doesnt it. 2015 was PC’s chance to have 1980 or 1981 all over again. There were Home Runs to be had all over the board.

    Maybe Edm wouldn’t have hit one,. Their past record, after lottery picks are gone, is not good. Perhaps a bunt single? Strikeout maybe.

    The list of players chosen #16-#26 is Staggering in Quality. The list from #32-#37 is Good.

    Oh what could have been …

  14. Richard S.S. says:

    I think it’s apparent that Darnell Nurse wants to stay an Oiler. It’s evident that he and his Agent are looking for more than $5.0 Million per year on a long term contract. That’s 1st Pairing monies, #1 D monies. Of one thing I’m very sure, Darnell Nurse is not and never will be a #1 D. Top 4 D – definitely yes. Top Pairing – maybe. #1 D – never.

  15. Connoreah says:

    I didn’t read the article to imply that Nurse doesn’t want to be in Edmonton, despite the title. And I don’t really have any problem with his agent being salty about money. That’s his job.

    When Leon signed for $8.5, people were mad that Chiarelli didn’t play hardball. Now we have a situation where we’re playing hardball with Nurse, his agent is throwing shade, and people are worried that we’re chasing him away.

  16. Durag says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Agreed, that’s the takeaway that really makes me happy, that Nurse is willing to make himself fit within the Oilers’ budget rather than looking for term elsewhere. I’d be thrilled if he came in at $10-11M for 3 years.

  17. oilman says:

    Hallelujah, Amen….”Waay-aye-aave babies” is finally out of my head! Nope – now it’s back again.

  18. Alpine says:

    Richard S.S.:
    I think it’s apparent that Darnell Nurse wants to stay an Oiler.It’s evident that he and his Agent are looking for more than $5.0 Million per year on a long term contract. That’s 1st Pairing monies, #1 D monies.Of one thing I’m very sure, Darnell Nurse is not and never will be a #1 D.Top 4 D – definitely yes. Top Pairing – maybe.#1 D – never.

    5 million definitely isn’t 1D money. It’s 2/3D money. I don’t think a 5 mil AAV is that much for Nurse. If you want to sign him long term at any point in the next two or three years, the AAV will start with a 5.

  19. Wonder Llama says:

    McLeod trash talking the Colts goalie after scoring: “There can be only one, bitch!”

  20. Wonder Llama says:

    godot10,

    You saw Gang of Four in 1981.

    You are now a god to me.

  21. leadfarmer says:

    Profit,

    Maybe, we will see where that Seattle expansion is and where the CBA negotiations go.
    I really dont get worked up over a player having only one year of RFA left. You still are the only one that can negotiate with them and if a player wants to leave there is nothing to stop them

  22. Munny says:

    Site seems a little wonky this morning.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    Looks like the market for goalies is being set
    Hellebyuck 6 x 6.167
    Fleury 3 x 7

    If Talbot has a good year he definitely gets a raise. 6mil per?

  24. Melvis says:

    We assume the Oilers are generally an ass in deal making, but in this case, Nurse’s agent might also be an ass – the kind which can also be construed as a pitcher fully capable of throwing 99mph fastballs at a hitter’s head.

    Mentioning koskinen or alluding to him as some sort of cap hit related signing impediment isn’t tantamount to an apples and oranges comparison. It’s closer to a papaya and pierogi comparison.

    And yet, as lousy a buy and sell type as I might be, I can see yanking Peter’s chain and shorthairs might be sorely tempting.

    “We can always walk Pete. Then you can always trade Nuge for yet another third pairing D.”

    As for sweet notes and sustain, Amos Garrett on “Midnight At The Oasis”. Also Bud’s on Broadway in Toontown a couple of times.

  25. Bag of Pucks says:

    Allegedly Darnell Nurse overheard quoting Honeymoon Suite lyrics in contract negotiations with Oil.

    “If you would just be sensible, you’d find me indispensable.”

  26. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer:
    Looks like the market for goalies is being set
    Hellebyuck 6 x 6.167
    Fleury 3 x 7

    If Talbot has a good year he definitely gets a raise.6mil per?

    I still don’t see it. Fleury is still talented and a multiple SCF member (not to mention winner), and Hellebuyk is 25 and the Jets future if he maintains his play.

    Talbot is good, but inconsistent, doesn’t have the track record of Fleury, and will be 31 come his next contract signing.

  27. Melvis says:

    Munny,

    No kidding. Couldn’t login. Timed out on a couple of attempts. Refresh forever. Shut down, restart. Clear history and cache. Restart. LRR (lather, rinse, repeat) I need the ttt-shirt. BBB baby, you ain’t seen nothin yet.

  28. Richard S.S. says:

    Alpine,

    The posting said …more than $5.0…

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Connoreah:
    I didn’t read the article to imply that Nurse doesn’t want to be in Edmonton, despite the title. And I don’t really have any problem with his agent being salty about money. That’s his job.

    When Leon signed for $8.5, people were mad that Chiarelli didn’t play hardball. Now we have a situation where we’re playing hardball with Nurse, his agent is throwing shade, and people are worried that we’re chasing him away.

    If you drew a Venn diagram where one circle was people who were mad Chia didn’t do better on the Drai contract and the other circle are people worried about chasing Nurse away I doubt those circles would overlap much, if at all.

  30. geowal says:

    Connoreah:
    I didn’t read the article to imply that Nurse doesn’t want to be in Edmonton, despite the title. And I don’t really have any problem with his agent being salty about money. That’s his job.

    When Leon signed for $8.5, people were mad that Chiarelli didn’t play hardball. Now we have a situation where we’re playing hardball with Nurse, his agent is throwing shade, and people are worried that we’re chasing him away.

    Pretty inflammatory headline by the Journal (‘sun’), in no way does it say he’s not interested in a long term deal (they cleverly omit the all important “…at that price” (5mil)). Typical these days I guess.

  31. Richard S.S. says:

    Munny,

    More than a little.

  32. Melvis says:

    Wonder Llama,

    You saw Bozz at Northlands on that tour. Which means you probably saw some of the best LA session cats that later became Toto.

  33. Melvis says:

    Melvis,

    Ooops. That was supposed to be a Godot related quote.

  34. jm363561 says:

    Connoreah:
    I didn’t read the article to imply that Nurse doesn’t want to be in Edmonton, despite the title. And I don’t really have any problem with his agent being salty about money. That’s his job.

    When Leon signed for $8.5, people were mad that Chiarelli didn’t play hardball. Now we have a situation where we’re playing hardball with Nurse, his agent is throwing shade, and people are worried that we’re chasing him away.
    ===============

    Not sure Chia is playing hardball. There is about $5m cap space left to pay Nurse and ANO (likely a winger). There is barely enough to bridge him (unless Looch is moved, which seems increasingly unlikely) let alone sign him long term.

  35. €√¥£€^$ says:

    flea:
    Nurse’s agent seems pissed. He brings up the Koskinen deal, I’m sure he thinks if the Oilers signed a regular league min backup they could have paid the $6M+ he wanted for Nurse on a long term deal.

    My take? The Oilers wanted to bridge Nurse. They don’t want to give him $6M, at least not yet. Still, looks like some hard feelings that Darnell has been left to last and has to take chicken scratch for two years.

    I don’t think Nurse will ever be an offensive guy, to be honest. I like the bet by the Oilers – make the player prove it.

    I agree with you that Nurse will never post substantial offense. I’ve been on the Nurse is more like Jason Smith 2.0 (with wheels) boat (Smith reached 20 pts once and had 1 season of 7 goals, 2 of 5 goals and mostly 1-3 goal-seasons, so Nurse will put up more points, but Smith never played with a 99 or 97).

    In reponse to Jaxon, whose excellent posts are very informative, stating 2 days ago that he expects Nurse to blow up offensively (I am paraphrasing), I took a bit of a deeper dive. My expectation was to find a major influence on his numbers by CMD and of his 26 pts, Connor was involved in 11 of them. He was the single biggest “influencer” of his point totals, but I have a suspicion that this would be the case for a large percentage of the roster. In comparison, Drai and Cagguila each had points in 5 of Nurse’s scoring events and there were 3 or 4 who had 4 pts.

    In addition, he had the most ice time on the team (31st in the NHL) and just given the shear TOI and opportunities with CMD, Nurse’s ability to transport the puck and his shot volume, it is not surprising to me that he accumulated 5 v 5 points, as simply put, the more time spent in the O-zone, the better chance you have at scoring a goal.

    As we discussed in the past, Nurse does not have great offensive instincts, this has not been displayed at the pro or OHL levels. His shot is consistently muffinesque and although he has above average shot generating metrics and goal shares, when he gets a shot on net it seems 95% are low-velocity and right in the bread basket. This does not scream offense to me…..

    Is Darnell Nurse a $5,000,000/yr player? Not in my opinion. I think his cap ceiling (in today’s cap situation and if he were 27 years old) should be $4.5 million/year and he will top out at a 2nd pairing hard minutes, shut down dman, who can play 1st pair in a pinch, but he is about 3 years away. Given his TOI totals and that he has kept his head above water this past season, I think he should be in the range of 2 x $3.25 million or 5 x 3.75 million today.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Profit:
    I don’t read the article as though Nurse is unhappy with Edmonton per se, but his agent is obviously ticked that they can’t get a long term deal right now. But as mentioned, I don’t know that the Oilers even want to do that.

    I think I agree with this.

    I didn’t read the article as Nurse having an issue signing long term in Edmonton (i.e having an issue with Edmonton or the Oilers) but simply that the cap situation doesn’t allow for the number he’d be agreeable to.

    I believe the Oilers would sign a long-term deal at any number under $5M but it seems like Darnell’s camp wants to get paid much more to commit term – in that regard, I don’t think the organization would (or should) be amendable to signing the long term deal even if there weren’t cap constraints.

  37. jm363561 says:

    Connoreah,

    Not sure Chia is playing hardball. There is about $5m cap space left to pay Nurse and ANO (likely a winger). There is barely enough to bridge him (unless Looch is moved, which seems increasingly unlikely) let alone sign him long term.

    I am ok with bridging Nurse but it would have been good to have had the option to pursue a long term deal. Chia’s cap mismanagement took that option away.

  38. John Chambers says:

    leadfarmer:
    Looks like the market for goalies is being set
    Hellebyuck 6 x 6.167
    Fleury 3 x 7

    If Talbot has a good year he definitely gets a raise.6mil per?

    I suppose that would imply at least one playoff series victory this spring to merit $6M+.

    It’s a show-me year for our goaltenders for sure.

  39. godot10 says:

    Melvis:
    Wonder Llama,

    You saw Bozz at Northlands on that tour. Which means you probably saw some of the best LA session cats that later became Toto.

    I didn’t.know much about anything back then. It was my first concert. I figured it might be my only chance to see Clapton, and all I knew about Boz Skaggs then was that Lido Shuffle had been the song in my head most of the previous summer.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Nurse is rounding into a nice player but he did develop by sundial. Even if they had the cap space, seems premature to hand him the big money.

    This is seemingly a benign post, however, to me, I think it points to a more material issue.

    I don’t believe that Nurse developed “by Sundial” – I believe that his development was in line with natural development for a non-elite d-man. Development takes time, in particular for d-men but I think Darnell’s development is right in line with what should have been expected. Two post-draft seasons back in junior, a bit of time in the AHL when he turned pro (probably should have been a few more months but there were injuries) and then natural progression up the depth chart and improvement year over year.

    He is just now establishing himself but he is just coming off his ELC (granted it did slide for two years).

    I think positing this development to be “by sundial” and thinking he should have “arrived quicker” shows a general misconception among (Oiler) fans on how quickly d-men and players can and should develop.

  41. Munny says:

    LT has been quiet so far this summer on the music front for the RE Series.

    He might have something surprising up his sleeve.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Likely the succession plan is Nurse gets a 2 year bridge until Sekera comes off the books, at which point Darnell gets the big money if he’s firmly entrenched on that top pairing. Seems to make sense on the surface.

    Reggie has 3 more years (just like Russell) although his NMC is gone by then (just a limited NTC – he lists 15 teams he can be traded to).

  43. jm363561 says:

    Munny:
    LT has been quiet so far this summer on the music for the RE Series.

    He might have something surprising up his sleeve.
    =====

    Every time I listen to any Kings of Leon track I think, if only Drai could tilt the ice and project a decent GF%, that would be a great headline for his line. (I also think King of the North would be a great nom de guerre for Connor). Thus endeth my contribution to the collective knowledge of the group. Good night from Manila.

  44. Connoreah says:

    jm363561:
    Connoreah,

    Not sure Chia is playing hardball. There is about $5m cap space left to pay Nurse and ANO (likely a winger). There is barely enough to bridge him (unless Looch is moved, which seems increasingly unlikely) let alone sign him long term.

    I am ok with bridging Nurse but it would have been good to have had the option to pursue a long term deal. Chia’s cap mismanagement took that option away.

    Another way to look at it is that Chiarelli did have the option for a long-term extension earlier, knew he wanted to bridge him, and then spent money elsewhere (i.e. backup goaltender). Strategically this removes a lot of leverage from Nurse’s agent who now knows the money isn’t there for a long-term deal. Hence the saltiness. Or we can assume he doesn’t now the first thing about the cap. Either way.

  45. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think positing this development to be “by sundial” and thinking he should have “arrived quicker” shows a general misconception among (Oiler) fans on how quickly d-men and players can and should develop.

    And this is particularly important in the context of Bouchard…

  46. Munny says:

    Yeti: And this is particularly important in the context of Bouchard…

    Just above that excerpt OP said “non-elite”.

    Of course right now we have no idea if Bouchard is elite or non-elite.

  47. Yeti says:

    Melvis:
    We assume the Oilers are generally an ass in deal making, but in this case, Nurse’s agent might also be an ass – the kind which can also be construed as a pitcher fully capable of throwing 99mph fastballs at a hitter’s head.

    Mentioning koskinen or alluding to him as some sort of cap hit related signing impediment isn’t tantamount to an apples and oranges comparison. It’s closer to a papaya and pierogi comparison.

    And yet, as lousy a buy and sell type as I might be, I can see yanking Peter’s chain and shorthairs might be sorely tempting.

    “We can always walk Pete. Then you can always trade Nuge for yet another third pairing D.”

    If we take a cynical view of the agent’s intentions, it’s almost as if those comments about the Oil’s inability to give term were aimed at encouraging an offer sheet…

  48. Connoreah says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If you drew a Venn diagram where one circle was people who were mad Chia didn’t do better on the Drai contract and the other circle are people worried about chasing Nurse away I doubt those circles would overlap much, if at all.

    Fair point. I guess it’s just surprising that nobody is framing this situation in a positive light in the comments. At best, it’s being framed as “Chiarelli’s own mistakes have handcuffed him and that might not be a terrible thing as long as Darnell isn’t too mad.”

  49. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its a bit interesting to note that the Agent specifically mentioned the Koskinen signing as a reason for the lack of cap space.

    I’m ok paying to try to improve the most important position on the team. It was kind of a strange poke at the Oilers IMO.

  50. McSorley33 says:

    Yeti,

    And this is particularly important in the context of Bouchard…
    ***********************************************************************
    Great point…..

    Two very different things – *saying* we should bring Bouchard along slowly and let him
    develop in lower leagues and actually *doing* that.

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    Connoreah:
    I didn’t read the article to imply that Nurse doesn’t want to be in Edmonton, despite the title. And I don’t really have any problem with his agent being salty about money. That’s his job.

    When Leon signed for $8.5, people were mad that Chiarelli didn’t play hardball. Now we have a situation where we’re playing hardball with Nurse, his agent is throwing shade, and people are worried that we’re chasing him away.

    Truth.

  52. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is seemingly a benign post, however, to me, I think it points to a more material issue.

    I don’t believe that Nurse developed “by Sundial” – I believe that his development was in line with natural development for a non-elite d-man. Development takes time, in particular for d-men but I think Darnell’s development is right in line with what should have been expected. Two post-draft seasons back in junior, a bit of time in the AHL when he turned pro (probably should have been a few more months but there were injuries) and then natural progression up the depth chart and improvement year over year.

    He is just now establishing himself but he is just coming off his ELC (granted it did slide for two years).

    I think positing this development to be “by sundial” and thinking he should have “arrived quicker”shows a general misconception among (Oiler) fans on how quickly d-men and players can and should develop.

    I don’t think the Oilers drafted a player 7th overall and as the 2nd Dman in his draft class, with the expectation that he’d be ‘non-elite.’

    For the record, I’m fine with the pace at which Nurse has progressed. I’m just stating if he were further along in his development by this point, he’d have a far more legitimate shot at the lottery contract.

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    His 26 points don’t seem great until its noted that they were all even strength points which was 37th in the NHL for d-men. He was among the league leaders in even strength TOI/G and played tough/top line minutes and ended up a plus 15 on a team with a large negative goal differential (although not as large a negative at evens). He played a decent portion of those tough minutes with Kris Russell as a 1RW as well.

    Is his playing time a positive or negative in contract negotiations? Sure, he was 24th in the league at 5v5 scoring, but his TOI was 6th – meaning Nurse was tied for 61st in 5v5 points/60 along with illustrious names such as Gio, Mike Green, Ruuta, Maata, Boychuk and Severson.

    Shea Theodore’s numbers are better than Nurse’s, it’ll be interesting to see where his contract falls.

  54. SwedishPoster says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    I don’t see much consistent offense in Darnell either, he’ll gather his points due to his skating ability and confidence with the puck. But his shot, vision and hands are all average or worse so I just can’t see him being all that productive. He’ll likely hover around 20-30 points for the majority of his prime. And I doubt he’ll ever be a mainstay on the PP on any NHL team.
    Which is fine, better than fine actually, personally I want to see him sharpen his defensive game not adding offense. As of now he gets by on skating, physique and natural authority . I’d like to see him kill lanes better, improve his positioning, cut down on his in game dips, learn to focus for the full game on a nightly basis. If he can do this he’s a monster defensively. Let others carry the offensive load.

  55. SwedishPoster says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m ok paying to try to improve the most important position on the team. It was kind of a strange poke at the Oilers IMO.

    Not very classy towards Koskinen either. But all sport agents I’ve ever met have been asshats so it’s par for the course I guess.

  56. Primetime says:

    SwedishPoster:
    €√¥£€^$,

    I don’t see much consistent offense in Darnell either, he’ll gather his points due to his skating ability and confidence with the puck. But his shot, vision and hands are all average or worse so I just can’t see him being all that productive. He’ll likely hover around 20-30 points for the majority of his prime. And I doubt he’ll ever be a mainstay on the PP on any NHL team.
    Which is fine, better than fine actually, personally I want to see him sharpen his defensive game not adding offense. As of now he gets by on skating, physique and natural authority . I’d like to see him kill lanes better, improve his positioning, cut down on his in game dips, learn to focus for the full game on a nightly basis. If he can do this he’s a monster defensively. Let others carry the offensive load.

    I agree

    Darnell’s points will/should come by being an elite defender, able to separate puck from player early in the zone on the rush/against the boards and chipping the puck up to the rocket McDavid going the other way.

  57. jtblack says:

    Meaningless stat split:
    MCDAVID Pre All Star Game and Post All Star game.

    PRE:
    GP 49 PTS 54 (1.10 ppg)
    POST:
    GP 33 PTS 54 (1.64 ppg)

    1.64 ppg over a Full Season is 135 Points. Not sure he can put up that many points but IMHO he is poised to flirt with 125 points.

    Happy Friday.

  58. Munny says:

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t think the Oilers drafted a player 7th overall and as the 2nd Dman in his draft class, with the expectation that he’d be ‘non-elite.’

    They should have no expectation either way. Plenty of non-elites and outright busts are drafted in the top 10.

  59. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    Meaningless stat split:
    MCDAVID Pre All Star Game and Post All Star game.

    PRE:
    GP49 PTS 54(1.10 ppg)
    POST:
    GP33 PTS 54 (1.64 ppg)

    1.64 ppg over a Full Season is 135 Points.Not sure he can put up that many points but IMHO he is poised to flirt with 125 points.

    Happy Friday.

    With good enough wingers, a second line that was also dangerous, defense that can move the puck normally, and other forwards playing at a normal NHL level the sky is the limit. Teams would be forced to spread the talent more and not be able to focus as many resources on Connor’s line.

    So we’re almost there!

  60. Drew says:

    This is a carry forward from yesterday. My best concert was years ago at the old Sidetrack in Edmonton.

    A buddy and I went to see Bo Diddly, seems the event was oversold so the manager asked if we minded sitting in a table kinda out of the way. We said sure, the table turned out to be at stage level but off to the side somewhat.

    Between sets, Bo came and sat with us and had a drink (I think was just water?). The main memory of the event was of him asking us “boys how am i doing”, of course, we said he was great. He was up there in years and didn’t play very long but what a memory.

  61. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Munny,

    Something something Nail something

  62. slopitch says:

    I’m not a Chai fan. Hate the Hall trade, how hes seemingly blown the cap space over 10 overpays. But I can see how “If the Oilers had drafted in 2013 and 2014…” turned into trading the picks in 2015 when the next guy started and didn’t trust the staff. I have a hard time blaming him for that. Choosing Reinhart and Talbot for that package of picks was too dear and set us back 3-5 years (when combined with the Hall trade). The NHL also boned us on the compensation rule. Lou Lamoriello would not have let that happen.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m ok paying to try to improve the most important position on the team. It was kind of a strange poke at the Oilers IMO.

    I’m OK with paying to improve at that position as well, however, for the price paid, I’d like a little more certainty that there actually is improvement.

  64. Munny says:

    Drew,

    Lol, I’ve sat at that table. It was a sad day when they took the Sidetrack down. Andante’s behind the Strathcona hotel too. Wasn’t as long-lived as the Sidetrack, or as famous, but I saw some great acts there. Miss’em both.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t think the Oilers drafted a player 7th overall and as the 2nd Dman in his draft class, with the expectation that he’d be ‘non-elite.’

    For the record, I’m fine with the pace at which Nurse has progressed. I’m just stating if he were further along in his development by this point, he’d have a far more legitimate shot at the lottery contract.

    By “elite”, I meant the likes of Ekblad, Hedman, Dahlin – essentially expected to make an impact almost immediately after drafted. I don’t believe that was the expectation of Nurse.

  66. Doug McLachlan says:

    Work is really impacting my ability to surf the LT Blog of late, very disappointing.

    That said, a couple of points on the Nurse story/negotiations.

    Just finished listening to @CraigCustance and the Full60 Podcast #35 with the CAA agent and Former Stars assistant GM talking about negotiations (sadly Craig didn’t ask about the unicorn of offer sheets, but I digress) and it was a good insight into how the contract game is played in reality.

    In terms of Nurse it sounds like the agent expected to be able to talk about a contract comparable to Klefbom, not in $ but in %. That would come in around $4.5-4.75. Depending on the agent, maybey he would try closer to $5 but the point is he was looking to lock Nurse in long-term.

    The Koskinen signing may have blocked that % being available and I am now wondering if that isn’t more than just good fortune for Chia but may have been part of the plan if he’s not yet convinced that Nurse (not his draft pick, BTW) is a really solid d-man but not the premier budding star Nurse thinks he is.

    Lack of space makes a bridge the only option and I’m ok with that myself. If he pops offensively, great, we will deal with him being on a short value contract emerging into another RFA deal.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Is his playing time a positive or negative in contract negotiations? Sure, he was 24th in the league at 5v5 scoring, but his TOI was 6th – meaning Nurse was tied for 61st in 5v5 points/60 along with illustrious names such as Gio, Mike Green, Ruuta, Maata, Boychuk and Severson.

    Shea Theodore’s numbers are better than Nurse’s, it’ll be interesting to see where his contract falls.

    Valid point – I guess it can be seen both ways.

    I could be wrong on this (and things are definitely evolving), however, I think managers/agents still put more value on traditional stats such as TOI, points, etc. than P/60, etc. Could very well be wrong.

  68. leeinvan says:

    The first thing Peter C should have done when the league retracted that stupid rule that cost the Oilers picks for hiring a fired GM and a fired Coach is tell the league we want those picks back.
    That was expensive and the Oiler’s were hurt from that rule that only last a few years.
    Nurse is solid but he has been with the team for how long and really is he more than a #3 d man at best.
    There are plenty of left D men his age making 3 mill and less that are just or more productive than Nurse.
    His value is pretty good and if he wants out, moving Nurse for a very good return (please no old worn out high priced players need apply) I would trade Nurse for a left young d man, they still have more value than wingers.

  69. Scungilli Slushy says:

    slopitch:
    I’m not a Chai fan. Hate the Hall trade, how hes seemingly blown the cap space over 10 overpays. But I can see how “If the Oilers had drafted in 2013 and 2014…” turned into trading the picks in 2015 when the next guy started and didn’t trust the staff. I have a hard time blaming him for that. Choosing Reinhart and Talbot for that package of picks was too dear and set us back 3-5 years (when combined with the Hall trade). The NHL also boned us on the compensation rule. Lou Lamoriello would not have let that happen.

    I have less issue with Hall Eberle Talbot because the team at least got useful players.

    Reinhart was indefensible even if new to the Oilers. They have nothing for it. Who trades basically two first round picks for a struggling AHL player? Only the Oilers and it’s hurting them big time now.

  70. Munny says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    I think if Nurse was willing to sign 8 years by 4.75M to 5M, the Oil would be very interested.

    I think the agent was hoping for a bigger number with that term, and that this was the off-season to ask for it (TOI etc.), considering the Leftorium moving forward.

  71. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Munny,

    Best place, long weekend Sundays were wicked!

  72. pts2pndr says:

    Nurse is the second best defenseman on the Oilers right behind Larson. He is only 23. He has progressed year over year. He is better than 32 year old Sekera who has only had two years in his carreer where he got more than Nurse’s 26 points last year. He is a better overall player than 31 year old Russel. Given that defensemen peak at about 25 years of age and 200 to 300 games played there is lots of room for Nurse to get better. In todays market given cap projections nurse’s value on a long term contract starts at a 5. If the cap room were available smart money says you lock him up long term! The Russel contract does not allow it. That contract should not have had a no move no trade clause!
    There may have been extenuating circumstances but it is a very restricting contract. The bridge will cause an over pay for Nurse moving forward!

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Nurse is the second best defenseman on the Oilers right behind Larson. He is only 23. He has progressed year over year. He is better than 32 year old Sekera who has only had two years in his carreer where he got more than Nurse’s 26 points last year. He is a better overall player than 31 year old Russel. Given that defensemen peak at about 25 years of age and 200 to 300 games played there is lots of room for Nurse to get better. In todays market given cap projections nurse’s value on a long term contract starts at a 5. If the cap room were available smart money says you lock him up long term! The Russel contract does not allow it. That contract should not have had a no move no trade clause!
    There may have been extenuating circumstances but it is a very restricting contract. The bridge will cause an over pay for Nurse moving forward!

    Maybe you meant even strength points (as Sekera has four seasons over 26 points)?

  74. leadfarmer says:

    pts2pndr,

    Sekera is the best defenseman when healthy because of his two way and turd polishing ability. Then its Larsson because of his elite defensive ability. Then its a long long tunnel before Klef and Nurse who have a long way to go defensively and pretty much need the Larsson lifeline for survival against good competition

  75. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Klefbom has an injury-riddled season, much like Sekera and now some fans here really don’t like him. I expect a big bounce-back and 30P+ season with cleaned up D zone play like 16/17

  76. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer:
    pts2pndr,

    Sekera is the best defenseman when healthy because of his two way and turd polishing ability.Then its Larsson because of his elite defensive ability.Then its a long long tunnel before Klef and Nurse who have a long way to go defensively and pretty much need the Larsson lifeline for survival against good competition

    leadfarmer:
    pts2pndr,

    Sekera is the best defenseman when healthy because of his two way and turd polishing ability.Then its Larsson because of his elite defensive ability.Then its a long long tunnel before Klef and Nurse who have a long way to go defensively and pretty much need the Larsson lifeline for survival against good competition

    The reality is we do not know if Sekera can get back to that point! Injury recovery from acl surgery while much better than it was is still not a sure thing. Injury recovery as you get older seems to take longer. The point I am trying to make is that I find it easier to project a younger, stronger and faster Nurse over two left shot D that arerapidly approaching the drop off and another, Klefbom, who has shown to be injury prone and comming off shoulder surgery.

  77. BONE207 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m ok paying to try to improve the most important position on the team. It was kind of a strange poke at the Oilers IMO.

    This is true…if Pete got this right, he’ll be a genius. If not, it’ll be more pitchforks & torches. Kind of normal for the past couple of years.

  78. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Maybe you meant even strength points (as Sekera has four seasons over 26 points)?

    Could be my bad as I did a quick peruse of the data. I still believe Nurse shows as the second best D on this team moving forward. If with the help of the new defensive coach, he does break out durring his bidge contract we may not be able to afford him moving forward!

  79. BONE207 says:

    Primetime: I agree

    Darnell’s points will/should come by being an elite defender, able to separate puck from player early in the zone on the rush/against the boards and chipping the puck up to the rocket Caggiula going the other way.

    Fixed

  80. BONE207 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Work is really impacting my ability to surf the LT Blog of late, very disappointing.

    That said, a couple of points on the Nurse story/negotiations.

    Just finished listening to @CraigCustance and the Full60 Podcast #35 with the CAA agent and Former Stars assistant GM talking about negotiations (sadly Craig didn’t ask about the unicorn of offer sheets, but I digress) and it was a good insight into how the contract game is played in reality.

    In terms of Nurse it sounds like the agent expected to be able to talk about a contract comparable to Klefbom, not in $ but in %.That would come in around $4.5-4.75.Depending on the agent, maybey he would try closer to $5 but the point is he was looking to lock Nurse in long-term.

    The Koskinen signing may have blocked that % being available and I am now wondering if that isn’t more than just good fortune for Chia but may have been part of the plan if he’s not yet convinced that Nurse (not his draft pick, BTW) is a really solid d-man but not the premier budding star Nurse thinks he is.

    Lack of space makes a bridge the only option and I’m ok with that myself.If he pops offensively, great, we will deal with him being on a short value contract emerging into another RFA deal.

    …or maybe the agent wanted the big $$$ so that he could collect his longer term guarantees. Looking out for #1.

  81. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think positing this development to be “by sundial” and thinking he should have “arrived quicker”shows a general misconception among (Oiler) fans on how quickly d-men and players can and should develop.

    – I’ve included your observation because it pertains to a quote that LT said today. LT says: “When giving Peter Chiarelli credit for these things, it’s also important to note…. ”

    – Was there a scenario, with the perfect GM, where we would have won the Cup last year?

    – So if we got Hamilton with those picks: if we kept Eberle and Hall, and had Demers, no Larsson, no Lucic, etc.

    – Of course we will never know but the view was we’d be really good last year

    – How many Cups should we expect? Crosby won 3 (hard to see them win a 4rth)

    – Ovie has won one (hard to see them winning another.

    – A thought experiment: If we win 2 Cups with McD and Chia was the GM for the next 10 years, will it be: “We can give credit to Chia for those 2 Cups, but it could have been so much more?”

    – If we win 2 Cups in the next 10 years, is that enough?

  82. Bag of Pucks says:

    Munny: They should have no expectation either way. Plenty of non-elites and outright busts are drafted in the top 10.

    Winning organizations shouldn’t think this way. You have to believe a pick at that spot will yield you an excellent player and if it doesn’t, you have to look at your procurement and development processes to ascertain where you can improve.

    Success begins with expecting it. Once you buy in to this idea that the results can be good, poor or anywhere in between, and that’s ok – that’s the death of achievement imo.

  83. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    John Chambers: I suppose that would imply at least one playoff series victory this spring to merit $6M+.

    It’s a show-me year for our goaltenders for sure.

    – I hven’t seen anything from Talbot to suggest he’s a “money” goalie.

    – I think he’s shown he can be very good reliable goalie: at his best, a top-10 goalie

    – He’s also shown a discouraging pattern of long stretches of being very mediocre or worse

    – He let this team down big-time this year, and that hasn’t been recognized enough.

    – Give him the chance to rebound for sure (hi Devan)

    – I’d hate for the team to decide if he reverts back to two years ago that he’s our guy, and sign him long-term for $5MM+

    – He doesn’t “steal” many games IMO. He’s not a cup goalie, unless your talking Osgoode with Detroit type Cup goalie.

    – I think the org believes this as well, which is why they are balls deep in goalies now.

  84. Doug McLachlan says:

    Munny:
    Doug McLachlan,

    I think if Nurse was willing to sign 8 years by 4.75M to 5M, the Oil would be very interested.

    I think the agent was hoping for a bigger number with that term, and that this was the off-season to ask for it (TOI etc.), considering the Leftorium moving forward.

    Sure, 8 by $5M seems about market. Buy his best years at a reasonable rate. I’m very impressed with Matt Cane’s prediction model which comes in at $5.2 on an 8 year deal so this seems to track with that

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-Pnzfvmo_1hDlWu7WqJHVyTZqy15386jVESKSOf0V4/edit#gid=0

    If he comes in on a bridge of 2 years x $3.5M that would actually be lower than what Matt Cane’s model is predicting ($3.86M x 2).

    Gaming it out, in rough amounts two years from now what does Nurse sign for then? 8 x $7M? More? Even with a rising cap, I am not sure that we have seen that level of offensive pop from Nurse even in Junior to suggest he would be getting elite money.

    Don’t get me wrong, I really like Nurse and think he is one of those players who has the potential to exceed his math – but to date he’s not doing the things that top $ guys do, like getting all the goals and points.

    In his three seasons as an Oiler (yes he was hurt in 16-17) he has 14g and 47pts. Respectable but not enough that Chia should be so desperate to sign him to a big money, long-term deal.

    His best season in Junior was his Draft +1 where he got 13g and 50pts in 64gp. Solid but not suggesting offensive breakout forthcoming.

    I’m curious to see what is on the other side of the bridge.

  85. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I have less issue with Hall Eberle Talbot because the team at least got useful players.

    Reinhart was indefensible even if new to the Oilers. They have nothing for it. Who trades basically two first round picks for a struggling AHL player? Only the Oilers and it’s hurting them big time now.

    I was thinking about the Hall trade last night and it’s the first time I got angry about it in 18 months. I hate that frickin trade, even more than Reinhart. They damn well new what they were giving up. And I love Larsson and think he’s the best dman on the team.

  86. commonfan29 says:

    If things with Nurse got really tough, what’s the most aggressive/reckless move Chia could realistically make?

    Nurse and Talbot for Price?

  87. Munny says:

    Bag of Pucks: Winning organizations shouldn’t think this way. You have to believe a pick at that spot will yield you an excellent player and if it doesn’t, you have to look at your procurement and development processes to ascertain where you can improve.

    Success begins with expecting it. Once you buy in to this idea that the results can be good, poor or anywhere in between, and that’s ok – that’s the death of achievement imo.

    You’re talking about at the time of the draft — all of which offer different levels of skill in the top 10 from draft to draft, mind you — this is years after.

    Winning organizations are dynamic in assessing and re-assessing their player’s progress. Holding onto the expectations from the time of the draft years later, as you are describing, is utter tomfoolery.

    But the point is moot as OP has clarified his meaning of “elite” and Nurse does not qualify.

  88. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I have less issue with Hall Eberle Talbot because the team at least got useful players.

    Reinhart was indefensible even if new to the Oilers. They have nothing for it. Who trades basically two first round picks for a struggling AHL player? Only the Oilers and it’s hurting them big time now.

    +1. I can stomach all the Trades but the Reinhart one is Baffling and could well cost this Franchise Stanley. Certainly has delayed Stanley, theres no doubt about that.

  89. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    So are we just erasing his top 5 goalie season the year prior?

  90. Munny says:

    Doug McLachlan: I’m curious to see what is on the other side of the bridge.

    If it is 8 x $7m, it will mean Nurse had an incredible 2 years. Which is not necessarily a bad thing.

  91. jtblack says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’ve included your observation because it pertains to a quote that LT said today.LT says: “When giving Peter Chiarelli credit for these things, it’s also important to note…. ”

    – Was there a scenario, with the perfect GM, where we would have won the Cup last year?

    – So if we got Hamilton with those picks: if we kept Eberle and Hall, and had Demers, no Larsson, no Lucic, etc.

    – Of course we will never know but the view was we’d be really good last year

    – How many Cups should we expect?Crosby won 3 (hard to see them win a 4rth)

    – Ovie has won one (hard to see them winning another.

    – A thought experiment: If we win 2 Cups with McD and Chia was the GM for the next 10 years, will it be: “We can give credit to Chia for those 2 Cups, but it could have been so much more?”

    – If we win 2 Cups in the next 10 years, is that enough?

    Anyone who “expects” more than 2 Cups is delusional. They key word being expect. Winning 1 is damn hard (see Tampa, San Jose, St.Louis). Its a 31 team League with Parity.

    I do “expect” 1 Cup due to Connor. Anymore cups would be nothing more than a bonus.

    3 Teams have won more than 2 Cups in the last 20 years. Det Chi Pit.

    This will be Connors 4th year and I dont see them winning it this year. Kane & Crosby had at least 1 by year 4. WE WAIT

  92. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    leadfarmer:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    So are we just erasing his top 5 goalie season the year prior?

    – no but I’m tempering it with him losing the top goalie on the team for awhile and thinking that his two other years surpass his best year.

    – he’s had a long enough track record. On a team that played great he was fine. As a backup on the good nyr he was fine. I don’t think he’s an elite goalie and I’m sure the team doesn’t either based on their run on goalies.

    – do you think he’s a top-5 goalie? Would you pay him as such over multiple years if he plays as well as he did two years ago?

  93. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack,

    – I agree. However if we win two many many people will say we should have won more but chia

  94. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    So are we just erasing his top 5 goalie season the year prior?

    Talbot has had years in which he has come in 4th and 7th in Vezina trophy voting in his career.

    EDIT: I know some people are down on him, but I think he was a good pick up by Chia. Teams have contended for the Cup with lesser goalies.

  95. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: Talbot has had years in which he has come in 4th and 7th in Vezina trophy voting in his career.

    EDIT: I know some people are down on him, but I think he was a good pick up by Chia

    Yeah. Agree. I was on Martin Jones as the option, but have no complaints about Talbot. He clearly wasn’t right last year, but goalie is a tough position and expecting every year to be the same as previous is unrealistic.

  96. Bank Shot says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – no but I’m tempering it with him losing the top goalie on the team for awhile and thinking that his two other years surpass his best year.

    – he’s had a long enough track record. On a team that played great he was fine. As a backup on the good nyr he was fine.I don’t think he’s an elite goalie and I’m sure the team doesn’t either based on their run on goalies.

    – do you think he’s a top-5 goalie?Would you pay him as such over multiple years if he plays as well as he did two years ago?

    Talbot’s career save percentage is .918%.

    He’s in a six way tie for 10th in terms of save percentage over the last ten years (over 250 games played).

    Goalies he is tied with:
    Price
    Rinne
    Bishop
    Miller
    Anderson

    His track record is pretty good. If he plays like a top five goalie again next season that means he’s had 5 out of 6 strong NHL seasons.

    I would guess you’d have to pay him at that point.

  97. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny: If it is 8 x $7m, it will mean Nurse had an incredible 2 years.Which is not necessarily a bad thing.

    Yup. It’s better to pay a 7M D 7M than pay a 4M D 6M. Paying great players what their worth isn’t what hurts teams.

  98. pts2pndr says:

    Bag of Pucks: Winning organizations shouldn’t think this way. You have to believe a pick at that spot will yield you an excellent player and if it doesn’t, you have to look at your procurement and development processes to ascertain where you can improve.

    Success begins with expecting it. Once you buy in to this idea that the results can be good, poor or anywhere in between, and that’s ok – that’s the death of achievement imo.

    I agree, in a results oriented bussiness it is the scouting staff’s mandate to be able to determine talent level and draft appropriately! Failure is not an option!

  99. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bank Shot: Talbot’s career save percentage is .918%.

    He’s in a six way tie for 10th in terms of save percentage over the last ten years (over 250 games played).

    Goalies he is tied with:
    Price
    Rinne
    Bishop
    Miller
    Anderson

    His track record is pretty good. If he plays like a top five goalie again next season that means he’s had 5 out of 6 strong NHL seasons.

    I would guess you’d have to pay him at that point.

    They’re going to end up with a bad contract unless Koski is the goods and will sign for less than what Talbot will command.

  100. Bank Shot says:

    Scungilli Slushy: They’re going to end up with a bad contract unless Koski is the goods and will sign for less than what Talbot will command.

    If at the end of the upcoming season they have a goalie that was top five two of the last three years, I think the Oilers would be in a pretty good place.

    I mean it would be amazing really.

  101. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bank Shot: Talbot’s career save percentage is .918%.

    He’s in a six way tie for 10th in terms of save percentage over the last ten years (over 250 games played).

    Goalies he is tied with:
    Price
    Rinne
    Bishop
    Miller
    Anderson

    His track record is pretty good. If he plays like a top five goalie again next season that means he’s had 5 out of 6 strong NHL seasons.

    I would guess you’d have to pay him at that point.

    – I think you are cherry picking stats.

    – In the last three years (since he’s been a starter): his sv% is .914. That’s 25th in the league (over 100 games started min.)

    – Maybe he’s better than the 25th goalie low, but seems about right. He’s a middling goalie. I wouldn’t pay him top-5 goalie money. He’s a step down at least from the elite IMO

    – Over the same 3 years Devan is .920

  102. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: He clearly wasn’t right last year

    There was something about letting in the first shot, but quite a few of those were the blame of the defense as the opposing team got a fantastic chance right off the bat and it was in the net in the first minute.

    Defensively, I think this team is still a work in progress. We still give up a lot of shots and the locations of those shots put us closer to the bottom of the league when looking at expected goals against.

    In 15-16, the Oilers were 30th in GA/60 and 23rd in Expected GA/60
    In 16-17, the Oilers were 9th in GA/60 and 23rd in Expected GA/60
    In 17-18, the Oilers were 24th in GA/60 28th in Expected GA/60

    The 1 outlier out of these stats is the GA/60 in 16-17, where Talbot had 12 GSAA.

    A healthier D core and growth from them should help

  103. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: He clearly wasn’t right last year, but goalie is a tough position and expecting every year to be the same as previous is unrealistic.

    – Talbot gets a pass for “not being right”, yet Lucic needs to go, even if it means sending out other assets to boot? Lucic clearly wasn’t right 2nd half last year either IMO.

    – Let’s hope they both revert to better levels this year!

  104. unca miltie says:

    on the topic of concerts, my first one was memorable. ZZ Top in the Kinsmen field house full of smoke from Mary Jane a very long time ago. My last one was a while ago too, flew to Vancouver to see Paul McCartney in BC place. Was well worth the trip. Used to hang out at the Stage Door in what is the Westin hotel today when it was new and the Edmonton Plaza. Lots of brass music. Chicago type bands. The side track was a Sunday night venue until I quit drinking in 1979. lol.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lucic hasn’t “been right” the entire time he’s been an Oiler – in my opinion.

  106. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m OK with paying to improve at that position as well, however, for the price paid, I’d like a little more certainty that there actually is improvement.

    Agreed. Still better 2.5 on the best goalie in Europe than 4 on a 5/6 D

  107. Bank Shot says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think you are cherry picking stats.

    – In the last three years (since he’s been a starter): his sv% is .914.That’s 25th in the league (over 100 games started min.)

    – Maybe he’s better than the 25th goalie low, but seems about right. He’s a middling goalie.I wouldn’t pay him top-5 goalie money.He’s a step down at least from the elite IMO

    – Over the same 3 years Devan is .920

    How am I cherry picking stats when I am using the bigger sample size?

    You are the one only counting starter seasons.

    Talbot played two months straight of games in 14/15 when Lundqvist was out as well and played very well.

    Does that count?

    I think with the exception of last year, Talbot has been at least average and mostly much better than average the other 4 years of his career.

    Maybe I’m biased, but I think the Oilers haven’t been particularly easy on their goaltenders in the last three years either.

  108. Munny says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Talbot gets a pass for “not being right”, yet Lucic needs to go, even if it means sending out other assets to boot? Lucic clearly wasn’t right 2nd half last year either IMO.

    I don’t recall LT ever saying “Lucic needs to go”.

  109. digger50 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’ve included your observation because it pertains to a quote that LT said today.LT says: “When giving Peter Chiarelli credit for these things, it’s also important to note…. ”

    – Was there a scenario, with the perfect GM, where we would have won the Cup last year?

    – So if we got Hamilton with those picks: if we kept Eberle and Hall, and had Demers, no Larsson, no Lucic, etc.

    – Of course we will never know but the view was we’d be really good last year

    – How many Cups should we expect?Crosby won 3 (hard to see them win a 4rth)

    – Ovie has won one (hard to see them winning another.

    – A thought experiment: If we win 2 Cups with McD and Chia was the GM for the next 10 years, will it be: “We can give credit to Chia for those 2 Cups, but it could have been so much more?”

    – If we win 2 Cups in the next 10 years, is that enough?

    I think it’s best to expect zero cups. It’s not a given.

    Chiarelli needs to own his mistakes today and what could have been. If he manages to turn it around then he owns the credit. As each year unfolds, there is still more likelihood of not winning, than winning.

    Having said this, I like the way the roster is coming along. It’s impossable not to revisit the “could have been” scenarios, human nature and all, but I can see acteam coming together. Another frustration of course is lack of cap space hindering the building of the roster, and the coaching.

    I cross my fingers that coaching is better, and that improvement alone can get us to the playoffs.

  110. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    No but that doesn’t mean you Dubnyk him out of here. We will be at the point within a year where we need to make a decision on him. I don’t think he’s a top 5 goalie but I think he’s a capable starter. If he has a good year are you going to attribute it to luck? Looking at the goalies available out there sometimes the solution is a lot worse than the problem

  111. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Munny: I haven’t seen LT state “Lucic needs to go” anywhere.

    – We must be reading the same blog differently!

  112. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Talbot gets a pass for “not being right”, yet Lucic needs to go, even if it means sending out other assets to boot?Lucic clearly wasn’t right 2nd half last year either IMO.

    – Let’s hope they both revert to better levels this year!

    The concern I have about Lucic surrounds buying out his contract. It can’t be done. Therefore, if you can trade him (with a slight sweetener, I’ve never recommended giving up a first round pick, etc) and Lucic for something. I’ve also stated that trading Lucic and then signing someone like Neal doesn’t make any sense, either.

  113. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I read that Mattheson article last night and it was a disappointment and telling but the content not surprising.

    We know that Nurse is a confident young man and he had a very nice season even if a bit uneven.The man is confident in his skills and I have no doubt that he believes he will be a legit top pairing d-man very soon if he doesn’t believe he is already.

    I am not surprised he is not willing to sign for term under $5M.

    His 26 points don’t seem great until its noted that they were all even strength points which was 37th in the NHL for d-men. He was among the league leaders in even strength TOI/G and played tough/top line minutes and ended up a plus 15 on a team with a large negative goal differential (although not as large a negative at evens). He played a decent portion of those tough minutes with Kris Russell as a 1RW as well.

    I think the bridge will come in well north of $3M.

    Its a bit interesting to note that the Agent specifically mentioned the Koskinen signing as a reason for the lack of cap space.

    Goal diff ratio ranks value.
    7.35 Ppg F/A/60
    2.35 EVG F/A/60

    Those are break even values. Avg.
    So
    1 even goal is 1/2.35 = 42.6% of break even.
    1 PP Goal is 1/7.35 = 13.6% of break even.
    A even goal is 3 times harder to achieve.

    Do you reward a dman who,s primary role is to reduce score potential of pucks directed towards the net.
    For 26 ev points in a system that asked them to abondon def of HD area.

    When the year before they ran a HD system and allowed 20% less goals at even.
    And
    Darnell was a 20 Evp Dman.

    Knowing top 5 HD dman Larsson zooms HD partners goal dif.
    Klefbom -11 82gm pace 15-16 and +7 in 82gm 16-17 (+18)
    Nurse even 16-17 and +15 in 17-18 (+15)
    We see Larssons zoom/drag affect.

    We do not know what Nurse is without him.
    2 years we will be damn sure.

  114. Ryan says:

    Richard S.S.:
    I think it’s apparent that Darnell Nurse wants to stay an Oiler.It’s evident that he and his Agent are looking for more than $5.0 Million per year on a long term contract. That’s 1st Pairing monies, #1 D monies.Of one thing I’m very sure, Darnell Nurse is not and never will be a #1 D.Top 4 D – definitely yes. Top Pairing – maybe.#1 D – never.

    Either Matheson is employing some ‘click bait’ with his article title or maybe Nurse doesn’t want to sign here long term.

    Nurse doesn’t transition the puck well enough for my liking at the price point he’s going to command long term.

    This article wasn’t particularly kind to Nurse.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/mackinnon-remains-top-pick-in-2013-redraft/c-299071996

  115. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: The concern I have about Lucic surrounds buying out his contract. It can’t be done. Therefore, if you can trade him (with a slight sweetener, I’ve never recommended giving up a first round pick, etc) and Lucic for something. I’ve also stated that trading Lucic and then signing someone like Neal doesn’t make any sense, either.

    – Last year, as bad as Lucic was, his 34 points was 49th amongst LW (2nd line production)

    – Of goalies who started more than 50 games, he’s 19th out of 22 in sv%: he was one of the worst goalies in the league in terms of saving the puck last year.

    – Should Lucic get 10 more points next year, he’s next years James Neal

    – Lucic’s poor year vs. his historical norm in terms of its effect on the teams performance is very minimal, vs. Talbot. And Lucic still has strong possession #’s

    – Over the last 3 years, only 15 goalies have started 150+ games: Talbot is 11th in sv%

    – By far, getting goaltending vs. the extra 10 points that Lucic (or his replacement) might get

  116. Richard S.S. says:

    Cam Talbot wins games that the Oilers should never had won – some call that an amazing skill – some call it being lucky. Cam Talbot had his worst season, but he was not alone there. Some say he’s done – some say it’s just a bad year. If you won’t give him a chance, then stop commenting on it, it getting boring.

  117. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Save percentage for goalies is like using +- for forwards. Very little meaningful info and guys on crap teams always look terrible and guys on good teams look good.
    At least GSAA gives you weighted data that levels the playing field somewhat.

  118. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    leadfarmer:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Save percentage for goalies is like using +- for forwards.Very little meaningful info and guys on crap teams always look terrible and guys on good teams look good.
    At least GSAA gives you weighted data that levels the playing field somewhat.

    – GSAA not so hot either. Look I don’t think Talbot is terrible. I just don’t rate him as high as some do here. I think he gets a try this year again, but the org has righfully loaded up on other goalies

    – And this isn’t directed at you but if 31 yr old Talbot can bounce back, why can’t Lucic @ 30?

    – So much ink spilled on how to rid ourselves of the 34 point winger boat anchor $6MM contract untill he’s 34, who scored once in 40 games, yet all anyone says about Talbot is: “he will rebound”

  119. Bank Shot says:

    – Of goalies who started more than 50 games, he’s 19th out of 22 in sv%: he was one of the worst goalies in the league in terms of saving the puck last year.

    – Over the last 3 years, only 15 goalies have started 150+ games: Talbot is 11th in sv%

    Yeah. He had a bad year last season and it drug his numbers down. I think everyone acknowledges that.

    If you take the two seasons before last season, well he was tied for 8th out of the 20 goalies that played more than 100 games. Keep in mind that by selecting goalies that play more than X number of games you are already sorting out a bunch of the bad ones.

    I guess I really don’t get your arguement. You call him a middling goalie and then state that if he has a great year he shouldn’t get paid.

    Wouldn’t you expect him to have a middling year? And then he’d demand middling money. That’s all the Oilers can afford to pay anyway.

  120. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: Yeah. Agree. I was on Martin Jones as the option, but have no complaints about Talbot. He clearly wasn’t right last year, but goalie is a tough position and expecting every year to be the same as previous is unrealistic.

    Once again.
    No Petry trade asset agreed to by MacT and Sather.
    No MacT retention.
    No Talbot.
    Was not Chia.
    Chia did not win the Mcdavid lottery as GM

    The best HD goalie trade pick up.
    Including Schneider and Fluery in exp.
    Talbot was #5 HD goalie at time of trade.

  121. Professor Q says:

    rickithebear: Once again.No Petry trade asset agreed to by MacT and Sather.
    No MacT retention.
    No Talbot.
    Was not Chia.
    Chia did not win the Mcdavid lottery as GM

    The best HD goalie trade pick up.
    Including Schneider and Fluery in exp.
    Talbot was #5 HD goalie at time of trade.

    Wait. I thought you were of the belief that supposed “HD” defencemen are the ones responsible for goalie save percentage? How can goalies have “HD” status, and positive ones, then (if you mean the obvious, that New York’s defence was much better than Edmonton’s and that Talbot’s performance reflects this, even if I and the numbers believe that he’s still a great pickup, good goalie, and will bounce back)?

    Just needs to stop letting in the first shot, or first few shots, and that alone will improve his play drastically.

  122. rickithebear says:

    Corsica borrowed (copied)
    my Dpair create save % mean theory.
    And
    Goalie performance is measured against as a +/-

    Now I see it on Corsica as Delta x Save%

  123. JimmyV1965 says:

    BONE207: This is true…if Pete got this right, he’ll be a genius. If not, it’ll be more pitchforks & torches. Kind of normal for the past couple of years.

    Chia’s future with the Oil is riding on the goaltending this year. If Talbot craps the bed and Koskinnen doesn’t save the day as backup, the GM is gone. I assume that’s why he overpaid Koskinnen. He wanted to get his guy and he made sure he got him. I’ll be surprised if the team save percentage is .915 and we don’t make the playoffs. Less than that and he might be done. For some reason he sees Koskinnen as a better bet than the cheap backups that were available this year. He’s literally betting his future on the decision.

  124. rickithebear says:

    Professor Q: Wait. I thought you were of the belief that supposed “HD” defencemen are the ones responsible for goalie save percentage? How can goalies have “HD” status, and positive ones, then (if you mean the obvious, that New York’s defence was much better than Edmonton’s and that Talbot’s performance reflect this, even if I and the numbers believe that he’s still a great pickup, good goalie, and will bounce back)?

    Just needs to stop letting in the first shot, or first few shots, and that alone will improve his play drastically.

    By stopping the open hole shots.
    That are measured against all shots by save% avg established by combined (open & Closed) (traditional) HD shot density chart.
    Or
    A true performance measured against open shot save % avg established by the 2 portions Dman def performance. hD and 0% corsi affect.

    Which I have not seen borrowed on an of the internet Data calculators.

  125. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Lucic is just slow for his age and these guys, see Ladd Okposo Erickson, don’t age well. Talbot is actually not very old for a starter. Lot of guys in their 30s with starting jobs

  126. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Let me guess, Einstein also borrowed your theory of Relativity.

  127. rickithebear says:

    Duffesor Q:
    2 critical theories relates to true visual performance measure.

    1. Belichek and me: dating back to late 70,s and early 80,s. It became apparent to me that high end baseline shift, downs, play repeatable/awareness by teammates in a system was critical to winning.
    “be tough to play against”

    2. False eye Affect: MSM & Fans let a single high visual mistake for the opinion of a players ability.
    Poster child was elite 1st comp def Dman Sheldon Souray ( product of NJD HD dman factory) who,s mistakes were video legendary. But he had one of the lowest goal resulting mistakes per 30 shift rates.
    It is why I never mocked staples. His approach was like mine.

    My favourite was when #7 HD goalie for that year Elliot gave up 2 what would be called weak goals.
    In a 4 GAA. But he faced 1.972 games of HD shot density.
    Boomer from Sportsnet 960 False eyed and said he was bad.
    But baseline performance repeatability was 4GA/1.972gm = 2.028 GA/GM performance.

    PQ you are a False Eye Opinionated Fool.

  128. rickithebear says:

    The GAA/GM by game density total allows you to establish the WAR value for a goalie.
    When compared to a standard GA vs win% curve.

  129. Professor Q says:

    rickithebear:
    Duffesor Q:
    2 critical theories relates to true visual performance measure.

    1. Belichek and me: dating back to late 70,s and early 80,s. It became apparent to me that high end baseline shift, downs, play repeatable/awareness by teammates in a system was critical to winning.
    “be tough to play against”

    2. False eye Affect: MSM & Fans let a single high visual mistake for the opinion of a players ability.
    Poster child was elite 1st comp def Dman Sheldon Souray ( product of NJD HD dman factory) who,s mistakes were video legendary. But he had one of the lowest goal resulting mistakes per 30 shift rates.
    It is why I never mocked staples. His approach was like mine.

    My favourite was when #7 HD goalie for that year Elliot gave up 2 what would be called weak goals.
    In a 4 GAA. But he faced 1.972 games of HD shot density.
    Boomer from Sportsnet 960 False eyed and said he was bad.
    But baseline performance repeatability was 4GA/1.972gm = 2.028 GA/GM performance.

    PQ you are a False Eye Opinionated Fool.

    I do not think there was a need to start with the name calling and mocking there, Ricki.

  130. Georges says:

    leadfarmer:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Save percentage for goalies is like using +- for forwards.Very little meaningful info and guys on crap teams always look terrible and guys on good teams look good.
    At least GSAA gives you weighted data that levels the playing field somewhat.

    Not sure about this.

    sv% = (shots – goals) / shots = 1 – (goals / shots)

    gsaa = expected_goals – goals

    If the goalie makes one extra save (i.e., lets in one less goal), sv% and gsaa will both go up. The correlation should be pretty strong (I remember it being around .8). If there’s very little meaningful info in sv%, then gsaa will have a lot of that baggage.

    “guys on crap teams always look terrible and guys on good teams look good”

    Some of the top goalies on sv% were on teams that didn’t make the playoffs.

    Hutton, Raanta, Luongo, Crawford… Smith and Bishop had a better sv% than Holtby and Murray.

    If by leveling the playing field, you’re saying that gsaa takes team defense out of it, this one’s tougher to sort out and definitely not something to sort out on a Friday night. gsaa has its problems doing what it wants to do.

    One important thing about goalie voodoo: whether it’s sv% or gsaa, how a goalie did last season gives us no information on how he’ll do next season. Talbot’s career all situation sv% is very good. I think you like him. I like him too.

  131. BONE207 says:

    unca miltie:

    The side track was a Sunday night venue until I quit drinking in 1979. lol.

    Ahhh…1979. That was the year you passed the torch to me.

  132. BONE207 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Agreed. Still better 2.5 on the best goalie in Europe than 4 on a 5/6 D

    I hope the best goalie in Europe is better than the 32nd best goalie in the Nhl.

  133. JimmyV1965 says:

    frjohnk: There was something about letting in the first shot, but quite a few of those were the blame of the defense as the opposing team got a fantastic chance right off the bat and it was in the net in the first minute.

    Defensively, I think this team is still a work in progress.We still give up a lot of shots and the locations of those shots put us closer to the bottom of the league when looking at expected goals against.

    In 15-16, the Oilers were 30th in GA/60 and 23rd in Expected GA/60
    In 16-17, the Oilers were 9th in GA/60 and 23rd in Expected GA/60
    In 17-18, the Oilers were 24th in GA/60 28th in Expected GA/60

    The 1 outlier out of these stats is the GA/60 in 16-17, where Talbot had 12 GSAA.

    A healthier D core and growth from them should help

    I don’t think we can exonerate the play of the dmen last year because they were a factor in Talbot’s poor play. But I can’t wrap my head around the fact that Talbot played much better at the end of the season while our dmen played much worse. His save percentage was better at the end of the year when Sekera was a tire fire and Bear was lost in the dzone. He needed to be better at the start of the year when our possession stats were among the best in the league. (I might be wrong about that. I’m just going from memory)

  134. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    Let me guess, Einstein also borrowed your theory of Relativity.

    No but I do have 2 major people in hockey industry that will state my knowledge and discussion of these theories before they were ever on the Internet.

    Table Hockey Goalie Movement Theory: a 43+ year old observation of a 6-8 yrvold young man playing street (sand) hockey with us slightly older boys. He did not do the traditional stand up or flop butterfly.
    He just moved with the tennis ball like a Table Hockey Goalie. He had a high hit body rate and therefore was a winning goalie alot of the time.

    The boy.
    Ronnie Gunville Player Personel Director for the PA raiders.
    Influenced by the likes of B. Lowes, Macrimmon, Manson, Campeze.

    1/2 of the GA diiferential success route tree map measure for hockey is this observation.

    As well A lot of Atco Upper Corporate having discussed my Hockey theories with me.

    Funniest one was the Brighton Beach power Plant Mgr discussing how one of his friends kids was frustrated that Coaches and GM did not appreciate the def side of game as much.
    The friends son “Brett Bellemore”

  135. rickithebear says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think we can exonerate the play of the dmen last year because they were a factor in Talbot’s poor play. But I can’t wrap my head around the fact that Talbot played much better at the end of the season while our dmen played much worse. His save percentage was better at the end of the year when Sekera was a tire fire and Bear was lost in the dzone. He needed to be better at the start of the year when our possession stats were among the best in the league.

    Having 2 opposition players in front of the net against one D cause Nurse and Klefbomwere out of screen is usually not poor goaltending. The open shot rates climb with in close shots cause block and miss rate influncevis greatly reduced.
    Open spacectargeting is easier.

  136. rickithebear says:

    Professor Q: I do not think there was a need to start with the name calling and mocking there, Ricki.

    Glass and all that stuff.

    False Eye: one view not full view.

    Opinionated: not a lot of facts.
    A lot of under your Craw vitriol prose directed my way.
    Thou your vitriol has that Buchowsky roll.

    Fool: my 10 year old discovered the Origional A team.
    Omage! Pity the ……..

  137. BONE207 says:

    Professor Q: I do not think there was a need to start with the name calling and mocking there, Ricki.

    Well…Homer does drink Duff beer. There’s that…

  138. JimmyV1965 says:

    rickithebear: Having 2 opposition players in front of the net against one D cause Nurse and Klefbomwere out of screen is usually not poor goaltending. The open shot rates climb with in close shots cause block and miss rate influncevis greatly reduced.
    Open spacectargeting is easier.

    This still doesn’t account for Talbot’s improved play at the end of the season when the defence was playing worse.

  139. Material pocession says:

    Professor Q: I do not think there was a need to start with the name calling and mocking there, Ricki.

    It’s so ironic given the fact that nobody really calls him out for the incoherent gibberish that he spews on here, trying to pass it off as groundbreaking analytical research. He is arguably the most disrespectful commenter on the site. Maybe just humour him.

  140. VOR says:

    Material pocession: It’s so ironic given the fact that nobody really calls him out for the incoherent gibberish that he spews on here, trying to pass it off as groundbreaking analytical research.He is arguably the most disrespectful commenter on the site.Maybe just humour him.

    Actually Ricki is very misunderstood.

    That is of course a choice on his part.

    He speaks, reads, and writes perfect English.

    As an example he just posted a homage to Charles Bukowski while referencing the poet himself. All while deliberately misspelling words, something Bukowski did as well. He inverted and subverted his own argument another Bukowski speciality. He did it in flow meaning he is super smart.

    He is a skilled math mind with interesting things to say. But he has chosen to trap himself in this ridiculous personae. He can abandon it any time he likes.

    I have no idea why he persists.

  141. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Material pocession,

    There is always the “skip reading his posts” option. That’s what I had to do when I started visiting this place 10 yrs ago and I still do it quite often, but recently I have tried to make an effort to decipher his posts.

    Ironic? Isn’t your handle in “homage” to him? Or rather is it your intention to mock him each time you post?

    Not trying to be an ass, just calling it as I see it. I apologize if I am mistaken.

    Being a long time reader, you don’t have to like it, but I would expect you would understand “The Ricki-ness”. From my perspective his non-standard style is part of the appeal of the place. Like the puke-green shag rug in Great Aunt Martha’s basement, the vivid pink porcelain in her guest bathroom and her giant nude self-portrait in her dining room.

  142. VOR says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Material pocession,

    There is always the “skip reading his posts” option.That’s what I had to do when I started visiting this place 10 yrs ago and I still do it quite often, but recently I have tried to make an effort to decipher his posts.

    Ironic? Isn’t your handle in “homage” to him?Or rather is it your intention to mock him each time you post?

    Not trying to be an ass, just calling it as I see it.I apologize if I am mistaken.

    Being a long time reader, you don’t have to like it, but I would expect you would understand “The Ricki-ness”.From my perspective his non-standard style is part of the appeal of the place.Like the puke-green shag rug in Great Aunt Martha’s basement, the vivid pink porcelain in her guest bathroom and her giant nude self-portrait in her dining room.

    And perhaps that is why he persists. He has a fandom here. But also his Alter Ego has found a home and become part of the fabric of the place.

    I am a fan. I admire the mad genius of it. I just don’t get the motivation for either the art or the artifice.

    Then again I don’t get Banksy.

  143. Material pocession says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Material pocession,

    There is always the “skip reading his posts” option.That’s what I had to do when I started visiting this place 10 yrs ago and I still do it quite often, but recently I have tried to make an effort to decipher his posts.

    Ironic? Isn’t your handle in “homage” to him?Or rather is it your intention to mock him each time you post?

    Not trying to be an ass, just calling it as I see it.I apologize if I am mistaken.

    Being a long time reader, you don’t have to like it, but I would expect you would understand “The Ricki-ness”.From my perspective his non-standard style is part of the appeal of the place.Like the puke-green shag rug in Great Aunt Martha’s basement, the vivid pink porcelain in her guest bathroom and her giant nude self-portrait in her dining room.

    Hi. “The Rick-iness” doesn’t excuse poor behavior or disrespect towards another poster. This is not the first time he has taken this tack. Such was not the case when I chose that name. When GMoney and Woodguy made puckiq, RTB became jealous and started lashing out at posters. Indeed, I find the civil RTB hockey persona entertaining but the recent name calling towards Professor Q, Woodguy, Leadfarmer, etc, has become too much to….bear. Perhaps a name tweak is in order. Material Elvis?

  144. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Regarding Lucic, I wanted to take a closer look at his season. We all saw his issues, such as the terrible passes in the Dzone, the missed open net chances and the seeming lack of engagement. The clash with Mike Smith was one of the highlights of this season for me, but because we rarely saw this from him it really stood out. I will just present the info for the masses to digest. For me I think there are good indicators that he will be able to bounce back next year, because IMO his issues were a combination of a lack of focus and piss-poor deployment. So I think it is 65% on him* and 35% on the coaching staff*.

    * these numbers were determined using the POOMA** method

    The negatives:

    A. 5.93 shooting percentage, lowest of his career, 2nd lowest was in rookie season when it was 6.41%, his 1st season in Edmonton it was 8.33%. Lucic has a 13.7% career shooting average.

    B. 0.994 PDO, mostly due to his craptastic shooting percentage, for context this was only the 3rd season it has ever been below 1.000, the previous times were his 1st and 3rd years.

    C. 66 Giveaways – this was a career high, and by eye this isn’t much of a surprise. In 16-17 he had 40. His 2nd most was 58, 5 seasons previous. His career average is 37.5.

    D. 4 penalties drawn, this was the lowest of his career. In 16-17 he drew 6, the 2nd lowest in his career. Prior to arriving in E-Town he averaged 12 per season.

    E. 16 minor penalties taken. This was the most he had taken in 7 years, the previous season he took 7, his career average is 13.7.

    F. He also had the lowest primary 5v5 assists in 8 seasons and 2nd most secondary 5v5 assists in his career.

    G. 71 hits taken, this was the lowest total in his career, 6 less than his first season in Edmonton. In the 6 seasons prior to joining the Oilers he averaged over 100 hits taken.

    Postives (?)

    A. 52.83% Ozone start was his lowest in 7 years and his 358 Dzone Face-offs were the most in his career.

    B. 51.96 HDCF% ithe previous season it was 49.11%

    C. 40.74% HDGF the previous season it was 55.58% and the previous 5 seasons it was 60+%

    D. Rebounds created were the highest of his career, the 2nd highest was in 16-17

    E. 24 shot blocks, highest in his career- likely related to career high giveaways, but it shows his GAF*** factor is still high, no?

    F. Highest hit total since his 2nd year, 53 more than 16-17.

    **Pulled Out Of My Ass

    ***Give A Fuck

  145. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Material pocession,

    Elvis has left the building….

  146. €√¥£€^$ says:

    VOR,

    So are you telling me that Ricki is actually New Age Darkness?

  147. Material pocession says:

    VOR: And perhaps that is why he persists. He has a fandom here. But also his Alter Ego has found a home and become part of the fabric of the place.

    VOR: And perhaps that is why he persists. He has a fandom here. But also his Alter Ego has found a home and become part of the fabric of the place.

    I am a fan. I admire the mad genius of it. I just don’t get the motivation for either the art or the artifice.

    Then again I don’t get Banksy.

    Interesting. It’s LT isn’t it?

  148. Material pocession says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Regarding Lucic, I wanted to take a closer look at his season.We all saw his issues, such as the terrible passes in the Dzone, the missed open net chances and the seeming lack of engagement.The clash with Mike Smith was one of the highlights of this season for me, but because we rarely saw this from him it really stood out.I will just present the info for the masses to digest.For me I think there are good indicators that he will be able to bounce back next year, because IMO his issues were a combination of a lack of focus and piss-poor deployment.So I think it is 65% on him* and 35% on the coachingstaff*.

    * these numbers were determined using the POOMA** method

    The negatives:

    A. 5.93 shooting percentage, lowest of his career, 2nd lowest was in rookie season when it was 6.41%, his 1st season in Edmonton it was 8.33%.Lucic has a 13.7% career shooting average.

    B.0.994 PDO, mostly due to his craptastic shooting percentage, for context this was only the 3rd season it has ever been below 1.000, the previous times were his 1st and 3rd years.

    C.66 Giveaways – this was a career high, and by eye this isn’t much of a surprise.In 16-17 he had 40.His 2nd most was 58, 5 seasons previous.His career average is 37.5.

    D.4 penalties drawn, this was the lowest of his career.In 16-17 he drew 6, the 2nd lowest in his career.Prior to arriving in E-Town he averaged 12 per season.

    E. 16 minor penalties taken.This was the most he had taken in 7 years, the previous season he took 7, his career average is 13.7.

    F. He also had the lowest primary 5v5 assists in 8 seasons and 2nd most secondary 5v5 assists in his career.

    G.71 hits taken, this was the lowest total in his career, 6 less than his first season in Edmonton.In the 6 seasons prior to joining the Oilers he averaged over 100 hits taken.

    Postives (?)

    A.52.83% Ozone start was his lowest in 7 years and his 358 Dzone Face-offs were the most in his career.

    B.51.96 HDCF% ithe previous season it was 49.11%

    C.40.74% HDGF the previous season it was 55.58% and the previous 5 seasons it was 60+%

    D.Rebounds created were the highest of his career, the 2nd highest was in 16-17

    E.24 shot blocks, highest in his career- likely related to career high giveaways, but it shows his GAF*** factor is still high, no?

    F.Highest hit total since his 2nd year, 53 more than 16-17.

    **Pulled Out Of My Ass

    ***Give A Fuck

    That’s a compelling argument for a regression season. However, even if he does rebound, that contract is going to be tough to move. His 5v5 numbers have been bad for two seasons now so the trend is developing. If he scores 20G, 30A = 50P this season, I still think you need to add a sweetener (draft picks) to move that contract next summer.

  149. Material pocession says:

    VOR: Actually Ricki is very misunderstood.

    That is of course a choice on his part.

    He speaks, reads, and writes perfect English.

    As an example he just posted a homage to Charles Bukowski while referencing the poet himself. All while deliberately misspelling words, something Bukowski did as well. He inverted and subverted his own argument another Bukowski speciality. He did it in flow meaning he is super smart.

    He is a skilled math mind with interesting things to say. But he has chosen to trap himself in this ridiculous personae. He can abandon it any time he likes.

    I have no idea why he persists.

    Um, VOR, you just described yourself. Got something to tell us?

  150. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think we can exonerate the play of the dmen last year because they were a factor in Talbot’s poor play. But I can’t wrap my head around the fact that Talbot played much better at the end of the season while our dmen played much worse. His save percentage was better at the end of the year when Sekera was a tire fire and Bear was lost in the dzone. He needed to be better at the start of the year when our possession stats were among the best in the league. (I might be wrong about that. I’m just going from memory)

    Talbot didn’t get better near the end of they year.

    They fixed the PK.

    If you break out the 5v5 and PK SV% its easy to see.

    Talbot only
    Oct 1 – Jan 31
    5v5 SV% .916
    5v4 SV% .803
    Overall SV% .901

    Feb 1 – Apr 15
    5v5 SV% .917
    5v4 SV% .903
    Overall SV% .914

  151. Wilde says:

    VOR:

    I have no idea why he persists.

    If you say this in earnest, your head is wall-to-wall virtue.

  152. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Talbot didn’t get better near the end of they year.

    They fixed the PK.

    If you break out the 5v5 and PK SV% its easy to see.

    Talbot only
    Oct 1 – Jan 31
    5v5 SV% .916
    5v4 SV% .803
    Overall SV% .901

    Feb 1 – Apr 15
    5v5 SV% .917
    5v4 SV% .903
    Overall SV% .914

    Well. There you go. Thanks. Would be interesting to see the breakdown for this be first two months of the season.

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: Well. There you go. Thanks. Would be interesting to see the breakdown for this be first two months of the season.

    Talbot only
    Oct 1 – Dec 1
    5v5 .919
    4v5 .788
    All situations .903

    Here’s the site: http://offsidereview.com/goalies/

  154. Wilde says:

    Extremely fucking cool “compare prospect progress” tool by @gableingaround using Emmanuel Perry’s recent prospect data work:

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/alex.gable#!/vizhome/TeamOwnedProspects/ComparePlayerProgress

  155. VOR says:

    Wilde: If you say this in earnest, your head is wall-to-wall virtue.

    It is such a shame you can’t rise above your Gorgian roots.

  156. Wilde says:

    Wilde,

    William Laggesson versus Filip Berglund:

    player : WL / / FB ( % chance of making the NHL )

    year

    2013 : 25% / / N/A

    2014 : 18% / / 48%

    2015 : 6% / / 38%

    2016 : 5% / / 38%

    2017 : 27% / / 43%

    – You can see clearly here how much Berglund’s edge offensively helps his chances vs WL

    – The rough boy to man transition to the SHL is in full force here

    – Those who remember SwedishPosters updates on these guys will remember his telling us of the big year the had: he was damn right

    – adding together for 70% chance of getting a Dman to the NHL from two #91 overall picks is a splendid result

    – the drafting might just rubberband this team back ahead of the pack: the goal should be eliteness

    – we’ll know half past McLeod if the development side can use the materials given

  157. Wilde says:

    VOR: It is such a shame you can’t rise above your Gorgian roots.

    Never one to play with your food, are you?

  158. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR: Actually Ricki is very misunderstood.

    That is of course a choice on his part.

    He speaks, reads, and writes perfect English.

    As an example he just posted a homage to Charles Bukowski while referencing the poet himself. All while deliberately misspelling words, something Bukowski did as well. He inverted and subverted his own argument another Bukowski speciality. He did it in flow meaning he is super smart.

    He is a skilled math mind with interesting things to say. But he has chosen to trap himself in this ridiculous personae. He can abandon it any time he likes.

    I have no idea why he persists.

    If Ricki is a personae, then it’s a good idea I never meet ‘him’.

    Every time someone has called him out, a sob story about terminal illness or autism rears it’s tragic head.

    The last two years have been a hard slog for me and mine, going through what Ricki tosses out as purile excuses when he gets taken to task.

    So forgive me if I’m a little tender about a) airing dirty laundry in public, and b) using it as a platform for personal attacks.

    I’ve been here through the golden years of DSF, who owned all he said, and New Age Sys who similarly stated he invented modern hockey.

    Every bear i know owns their crankiness.

    And as for Bukowski: who’d want to be such an asshole?

    https://youtu.be/xr_B2IOUYSw

  159. Melvis says:

    Jethro Tull: And as for Bukowski: who’d want to be such an asshole?

    Is that a rhetorical question?

  160. Jethro Tull says:

    Melvis,

    Listen to the song in the link, my friend!

  161. Jethro Tull says:

    Melvis: Is that a rhetorical question?

    Wait….is THIS a rhetorical question?

  162. VOR says:

    Wilde: Never one to play with your food, are you?

    Nope.

    I am genuinely curious. Can you define eliteness?

  163. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR: Nope.

    I am genuinely curious. Can you define eliteness?

    Godot did the other day.

  164. VOR says:

    Jethro Tull: If Ricki is a personae, then it’s a good idea I never meet ‘him’.

    Every time someone has called him out, a sob story about terminal illness or autism rears it’s tragic head.

    The last two years have been a hard slog for me and mine, going through what Ricki tosses out as purile excuses when he gets taken to task.

    So forgive me if I’m a little tender about a) airing dirty laundry in public, and b) using it as a platform for personal attacks.

    I’ve been here through the golden years of DSF, who owned all he said, and New Age Sys who similarly stated he invented modern hockey.

    Every bear i know owns their crankiness.

    And as for Bukowski: who’d want to be such an asshole?

    https://youtu.be/xr_B2IOUYSw

    As someone who has never made any secret of the fact that I am on the spectrum I abhor his inaccurate and inappropriate use of the word autism. And him using it as an excuse is…well inexcusable. My sympathies with the tough times you are experiencing. For the third time in my life I am living through seasons in hell.

  165. Melvis says:

    Jethro Tull: Wait….is THIS a rhetorical question?

    ha ha;-)

  166. Wilde says:

    VOR: Nope.

    I am genuinely curious. Can you define eliteness?

    When it comes to an NHL team?

    Being rooted strongly enough to only be swayed, but not taken, by all but the most vicious turns of variance and remain past the first stormy season.

  167. VOR says:

    Jethro Tull: Godot did the other day.

    I am betting Wilde’s definition would be rather different. Wouldn’t you? I am truly curious how he sees it.

  168. VOR says:

    Wilde: When it comes to an NHL team?

    Being rooted strongly enough to only be swayed, but not taken, by all but the most vicious turns of variance and remain past the first stormy season.

    Now didn’t I say it wouldn’t look like Godot’s?

  169. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR: I am betting Wilde’s definition would be rather different. Wouldn’t you? I am truly curious how he sees it.

    Sorry VOR, I have it wrong, Godot defined ‘generational’.

  170. Jaxon says:

    €√¥£€^$: Nurse does not have great offensive instincts, this has not been displayed at the pro or OHL levels.

    This is not true. His 16.94 Projected Primary Pts was quite high in his draft season and improved from there. That number is better than most high picks from Canadian Junior.

  171. Jaxon says:

    Name Projected 5-on-5 P1
    K’ANDRE MILLER 33.51
    RYAN MERKLEY – 23.80
    EVAN BOUCHARD – 22.34
    Zach Bogosian – 19.92
    TY SMITH – 18.81
    Dmitry Kulikov – 17.61
    Darnell Nurse 16.94
    NOAH DOBSON – 16.34

  172. Jaxon says:

    Seth Jones – 14.56
    JETT WOO – 13.76
    CALEN ADDISON – 13.61
    Aaron Ekblad – 13.45
    Luke Schenn – 12.86
    Jakob Chycchrun – 12.80
    BODE WILDE 11.33
    Drew Doughty – 9.77
    Luca Sbisa 9.07
    Cam Fowler – 7.34

  173. VOR says:

    I would argue that in placing boundaries on Connor Godot bracketed the team. If you have a generational player you must achieve X as a team. Essentially it was expectation by objective.

    Wilde has given us a functional definition of how the team should behave. One based on resilience. I think everyone here would agree resilience is a critical component of success in pretty much any walk of life.

  174. godot10 says:

    Jethro Tull: Godot did the other day.

    Er…I did nor define elite. I was talking about generational players, which are the elite of the elite.

    Lowetide was predicting a ho hum 40 goal season for McDavid. I asked the question when a supposed generational player was going to demonstrate generational results, and show some separation.

    Year 4. 40 goals and 110 points is ho hum

    The Oilers probably don’t make the playoffs if Connor only has a ho hum 40 goal 110 pt season. And the Art Ross will still e a competition

  175. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10: Er…I did nor define elite.I was talking about generational players, which are the elite of the elite.

    Lowetide was predicting a ho hum 40 goal season for McDavid.I asked the question when a supposed generational player was going to demonstrate generational results, and show some separation.

    Year 4.40 goals and 110 points is ho hum

    The Oilers probably don’t make the playoffs if Connor only has a ho hum 40 goal 110 pt season. And the Art Ross will still e a competition

    See four posts above. And it’s all TMac’s fault.

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