When we moved to Maidstone in the winter of 1971, it was a major adjustment. Moving from Haney BC, where the weather was mild and Stanley Park was a rather common occurrence, the prairies had less curb appeal. I am generally a positive person, and cast about trying to find something to hold on to in my new surroundings.
Saskatchewan in 1971-72 was a time warp in all directions. The schools were more advanced than the ones I left, so much so I almost failed the year we arrived in town. On the other hand, we had far less freedom as kids in Saskatchewan, mostly because there was work to do after school. In BC, our time after school was kind of open, but in my new surroundings we had things to plant, goats to milk and bus rides that took forever (Saskatchewan is miles and miles of miles and miles, I think that’s W.O. Mitchell). By the time I’d been in Maidstone for all four seasons, I’d managed to do all kinds of things to make myself useful as well as ornamental. It was an education.
THE ATHLETIC
Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.
- New Lowetide: Cap decisions of 2017 may continue to hamper 2019 decisions
- Lowetide: Creating the ideal No. 2 line for the 2018-19 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Which RFA’s are the most attractive for offer sheets.
- Scott Burnside: Q&A with new Humboldt Broncos coach Nathan Oystrick.
- James Mirtle: Canada job postings.
- Lowetide: UFA’s still available who can help the 2018-19 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Analyzing the Oilers 2018-19 depth chart (including additions)
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors could be best Oilers AHL team in ages
- Lowetide: Handicapping the race to win jobs on McDavid/Draisaitl wings
- Lowetide: Oilers grab Tobias Rieder in free agency
- Lowetide: Frugal Oilers grab Kyle Brodziak in free agency
- Jonathan Willis: How will Oilers manage rich collection of goalie prospects?
- Lowetide: Is Evan Bouchard NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: The maturation of Daryl Katz, or heading down a dangerous road?
BAKERSFIELD’S FOUR SEASONS
I write a “Farm Workers” post every year, looking at players during different stages of their careers (entry level, second contract-prospects fading, AHLer heading to Europe someday). Eric Rodgers runs the numbers a couple of times during the year from the minors and I post them. He sent me his end of season totals yesterday and I thought it would be a nice idea to post the whole bunch in today’s article. I have placed them in different categories this time, in a way it matches the seasons I saw on the farm years ago. The promise of spring, the strength and power of summer, the gray of September and the long way home. Rodgers gives us estimated time on ice, even-strength goal differential, points-per-game (in all disciplines). That’s a lot, and I thank him.
PROSPECT FWDS WHO SPENT LESS THAN 20 GAMES IN BAKERSFIELD
- This is the group of forwards who mostly started or ended the season in Bakersfield but didn’t spend much time there.
- Jesse Puljujarvi was down on the farm because Kailer Yamamoto played well enough to get a 9-game look. Sending the Finn down was foolishness if they didn’t plan on running him with big minutes. That’s a fact. One of the things Jay Woodcroft should do, and we’ll see, is play the hell out of the kids. They will struggle in October but find their footing by January. You have to play the kids. As for Puljujarvi, No. 2 or No. 3 line duty on right wing in Edmonton is the right play for 2018-19. He’s a good bet to blossom if given enough rope.
- Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson and Tyler Vesel had some success. All three men should be major players in Bakersfield this winter. Marody would be the obvious player from this group for NHL time in 2018-19.
CONDORS DEFENSEMEN
- Keegan Lowe’s goal differential at 5-on-5 is borderline impossible considering the other numbers beside the rest of the defensive group. He’s blocked by Kevin Gravel as No. 7D but someone will get hurt and Lowe is clearly the next man up in terms of actual defending from this group.
- Ethan Bear displayed the same coverage issues we saw in Edmonton when he was in Bakersfield, but those headman passes are going to get him some NHL looks. He might be blocked by Evan Bouchard but the Oilers will need some options if the first-round pick ends up back in junior for one more year.
- Ryan Mantha is a year older than Bear but did display some defensive acumen based on these numbers. We didn’t get a lot of information on his injury until after the season, turns out it’s a worrisome eye issue. Mantha is a good prospect, hopefully he resumes his career in the fall. He played quite a bit with Keegan Lowe.
- Caleb Jones was an adventure, I checked for maladies and ailments but couldn’t find specifics on his 10 games missed. He’ll need to improve that goal differential at 5-on-5.
- Eric Gryba didn’t have a strong showing.
- Dillon Simpson is off to Columbus, I hope he discovers the NHL.
AHL FORWARDS SIGNED TO NHL DEALS
- Ty Rattie could be a huge story this time next season. If he scores 20 NHL goals, Rattie might get a contract for many dollars and several years. What a story! He’ll have to work and pray though, there are two kids who will push him.
- Iiro Pakarinen is what the Oilers hoped Lennart Pettrell would be and a helluva PK man to boot. I’m going to miss him.
- Joey Laleggia signed with St. Louis, I think they’ll use him on defense. The Oilers have uncovered Brad Hunt and Jordan Oesterle in recent years, Laleggia might be next. He’s one dimensional as hell but if that one dimension scores goals then there is value.
- Joe Gambardella’s numbers are mildly encouraging in a “maybe he’ll make the NHL at 27” kind of way.
AHL FORWARDS SIGNED TO AHL DEALS
- Eric’s TOI estimates have this group playing over 4,000 minutes a year ago. That’s too many for AHL contracts but then again some of the team’s best players are from this group.
- Josh Currie is a good hockey player. I sometimes wonder if they ever considered Charles Lingleting him, but no NHL contract arrived. He will player the second year of a two-year NHL deal this winter.
DARNELL
- Nurse’s agent Anton Thun: “At the end of the day, Peter (GM Chiarelli) and (cap specialist) Bill Scott control their cap space and their decisions. They bought out Eric Gryba to add another player (50-man protected list), which cut into their cap and they signed the European goalie (Mikko Koskinen) for two-million and change, and that did the same to their cap space. If they’ve got $5 million in cap space (now), it’s not going to be a long-term deal.” Source
Fascinating quotes from Jim Matheson in his Thursday article, I linked one day ago and wanted to return for a few minutes. The agent is correct, Edmonton used dollars to address the goaltending and then made a curious move (50-man is one option but the Oilers are unlikely to finish close to max at the end of summer).
I think it’s reasonable to suggest management felt all along that a bridge deal would be best. I think Nurse has done some very good things so far but if you’re going to pay a defenseman $5 million that player needs to bring some offense. Nurse has great wheels but lacks creativity with the puck. That isn’t news, we can go to the tape. He is an entirely useful player but we know what we know and at this point signing him to a long-term deal could be a mistake. This is the proper course.
I think we are going to regret not signing Nurse to a long term deal. Salary caps have been growing a lot faster than available talent, especially that few good players actually make it to free agency anymore. This will make teams throw lots of money at not so good players, which has really taken off this offseason, which will also raise comparable for other players. Also the cost of poaching other players is pretty low 1,2,3 rd round picks for an 8 mil contracts. I think some of these teams that have trouble attracting talent but want to take the next step are going to start trying to get talent the only way they can outside of the draft, by poaching it from other teams.
“The last July trade made by the Oilers came in 2015 (Liam Coughlin for Anders Nilsson) and the last big one took place in 2013 (Magnus Paajarvi and a second-round pick for David Perron). There are areas where the club could improve but the selection of Evan Bouchard, the decision to go all-in on youth at right wing, the conclusion that playing Milan Lucic in Edmonton is better than giving up another big piece of the future as sweetener, all seem to have conspired to make this a quiet summer. I suggested keeping the powder dry was the best route in this situation. It appears to have also been the assessment of management. A trade this summer could happen, but bleeding the future is apparently no longer an option. That’s a good decision, now it’s up to the kids.”
I could not agree more – Yes, divesting of the Lucic contract remains on the “to do list” but I believe that management needs to be patient and wait for a reasonable deal. Giving up too much value in order to get a team to take the contract does not make sense at a point where the prospect pool is just starting to gain some depth and potential. Lets keep building, be patient and wait for the opportunities to make smart moves.
Ooops, wrong thread.
Wilde,
I guess the Oilers can get a front row viewing into his development?
**Again with update for Oil Kings fans:
Drafted #2 Overall by the Oil Kings in the CHL Import Draft, Belarusian forward Vladimir Alistrov is #6 in Emmanuel Perry’s early early 2019 NHL draft list with:
– 96.07% chance to be drafted in 2019
– 80.19% chance to make the NHL (!!!!!)
– cohorts* of Canucks prospect Petrus Palmu, Clarke McArthur, Sebastian Aho, and Markus Granlund
*cohorts is a measure that collects the group of players who produced within a certain percentage (typically 5%) of the prospect when they were the same age
At 6’2″ already as well, I’d expect him to be able to step in and contribute immediately, and shortly come to dominate.
Have to go for them now. Have a feeling it’d be Denmark here instead though if they’d have just won those penalties (and they match up well against France, even if to a sluggish stalemate degree). I guess they were playing like New Jersey/Minnesota the whole tournament, so the boring play finally caught up to them.
Any other exciting sporting events going on?
Go 5 set match with another long fifth set!
Go Croatia!
#Ilovesports
Ahhh, there is a “teamates” option – thank you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqUiWpGGCmI
Here is Connor McDavid sorted by on ice counts, it lists with or without. You can change by player via prompt at the top.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8478402
Larsson can be a scary fella
That sounds like the intro to a very good joke. I’ll wait…
He might be talking about Harry Carey or even Mariah Carey. I believe he once wrote about being in the age of retirement.
northerndancer,
I can almost Imagine chasing bears across the third base line instead of gophers.
I would venture a guess that bears were smaller then. The bears I’ve met would rather do the chasing.
I guess anything is possible, but projecting Bear to easily be a top 4 dman seems very premature.
I would be happy if he could handle 3rd pairing minutes and quarterback the 2nd powerplay unit. Anything more seems a tad bit optimistic.
I saw someone post this the other day but how do i use naturalstat to find find out how much time a player was on the ice with each of his teammates. I know who to use the line tool for WOWY but swear I saw a link showing the ice of time a of a player with all his teammates.
Thanks.
Off topic.
Who do you guys have as your top five worst NHL GM’s (currently employed in that role)?
I think Chiarelli and Bergevin are locks for the top two worst. Then there’s the mess in Florida depending on how much you want to blame Tallon… Botterill in Buffalo. Benning? Sakic? Chayka? Holland? Sweeney?
The certainty with which some posit their various speculations is quite mind boggling to me at times.
It might be fun, or of some interest to those whose avocations are more deeply rooted in historical data – doing a bit of contrast and compare between Larry Robinson (and the Habs 73/74 roster…6g/20a) at evens and Darnell. 17/18 – 6g/20a at evens.
And now Yawney joins the Oilers. So just for fun. Just sayin’…as the cliche goes.
Speculate away.
Sort of Donald Trump like. Are you a fan?
Absolutely, but you need to correctly identify those players and their worth.
What if Nurse wants 6M?
How high would you go on an 8 year deal?
I hope Draisaitl and Rieder have friendship power also.
Wilde,
OriginalPouzar,
So what you guys are saying is that Nurse is feeding off of the McDavid bromance energy and helps push the puck forward more than anyone else while McDavid is on the ice, and McDavid seems to lose his mojo when Larsson is on the ice without Nurse???
?
Maybe.
Nobody there a top 4 D at this time besides Larsson.
Hey LT,
I can relate to your move, we moved from Surrey in the summer of 77 to a farm West of Edmonton. ’twas a shock for me at many levels, even at 9 years old.
When I was around 14 or 15, we started raising goats.
Did you mean Mary Carey? 🙂
300 minutes with Larsson and 240 w/o Larsson.
Goal share doesn’t change much at all (70.8% with Larsson and 71.4% without):
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477498&p3=8476457&p4=0&p5=0
“Ethan Bear will move fast, but not right away”
– Oxymoron
Klima’s_Bucket,
Not many places that fit a family of 8 so the old nunnery here works great.
Evan Bouchard will move fast, might even start in game one. The Oilers should know real quick if he’s a #1 D or just 1st Pairing, or just Top 4 D.
Ethan Bear will move fast, but not right away. He might be a #1 D or 1st Pairing, but if not, he’s easily Top 4 D.
Matthew Benning is developing into a solid Top 4 D, but he definitely not 1st Pairing.
Adam Larsson’s contract expires in three years so some very hard decisions must be made. Someone might get traded, as Right Shot D looks covered for more than a few years.
For Oil Kings fans:
————————————————————————————————————-
Emmanuel Perry
@manny_hockey
9 minutes ago
Vladimir Alistrov (taken 2nd overall in the import draft by the Edmonton Oil Kings) projects to be a top-10 pick in 2019. Very interested to see how he performs next season.
————————————————————————————————————-
Next year will tell little about Darnell Nurse. By January of the following year, a better idea of what he brings will be known. He will never be a #1 D, or it would be readily apparent by now. I have doubts that he is a #2 D. If he’ll take Klefbom/Larsson monies sign him. If not, the Oilers might have to trade him.
241 minutes and the results without Larsson were better than with him
Also McDavid with LArsson but without Nurse had 45% GF, five goals against per hour, which is nuts
Also also I don’t actually have a fully formed opinion on the Nurse-McDavid phenomenon
Now how much of that time was Larsson on the ice as well?
No it’s something. It’s friendship power.
I noticed this like midway through the season, it’s a 5% stopping rate difference.
If you look at 2016-17 though the same thing to a different degree happened(and with the PDO being pulled in the opposite direction), but then you could also explain it away then as Nurse being on the 3rd pairing and so if McDavid was on with him, they were probably facing non-elite competition and it’s expected McDavid shreds those minutes independent of whatever Dmen are on with him.
But that’d be two years of (lazily) writing it off, so.
Friendship power.
It won’t be $7M unless his offence spikes to 40 (consistently) which I don’t see.
Optimism is like heroin,
What directed you to Tramping Lake of all places?
When he has the time and space to walk in to it, yes, he can bomb the puck (but so can most NHL d-men) – its when he doesn’t have the space to walk in to one where his shot is below average (at least in my mind).
Its like the opposite of a guy like Brent Burns who seems to be able to get a hard shot on net in all situations – off his back foot, small wind-up, etc.
Joe G. needs to take a massive step forward this season if he is ever going to play an NHL game.
Third line AHLers don’t become NHLers – its only his second year pro but he’ll be 25 prior to the turn of the calendar.
I think one (two if the hockey gods smile) of McLeod, Maksimov, Safin (and even McPhee or Rasanen) may have a better shot if we are talking a couple years down the road.
Sekera will eventually be replaced with one of Samorukov, Lagesson, Jones, Persson, Berglund, Kemp – hopefully.
Vezina Talbot?
First Shot Talbot?
The Finnish Wall?
Considering how good the Oilers are at all things goalies…
Brossoit should be the best goalie in the league in 2 years.
McDavid with Nurse had a 71% goal share – in 540 minutes – WOW!
McDavid was down to 50% without Nurse – in 800 minutes
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477498&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
Their relative goal share together was a plus 26 – that is a mind-boggling number.
Am I misinterpreting these stats or is McDavid and Nurse something?
Yes, his o-zone decision making needs to continue to progress – well, “needs to” if he’s going to be a legit top pairing guy.
He took very nice strides in this area last year – he at least stopped taking the puck down super low in the o-zone and often behind the net. He made a play here and there and seemed to be coming along, however, from my eyes, he regressed in this area in the 2nd half of the season.
I wonder if that regression in the o-zone decision making is related to essentially taking over from Klefbom at the 1LD?
Here is hoping Nurse gets bridged and then wins a Norris as well.
Back in the day playing baseball in Tramping Lake was about warm winds, pick up trucks (we called them 1/2 tons where I came from, pick up truck was an American term (spits) Being at the plate in Tramping Lake meant a hopeful possibility of pounding the ball over the crest of the hill that was centre field – and into the lake. As it were.
Now, as far as Bear’s chances are concerned, my naked eye saw him improve his defensive awareness and skill with each game up last year. At first he would get beat inside, then it was outside and then he was shoving the attacker back into the corners or behind the net and tying him up. Seems like a ‘hockey smart’ kid.
The best defense is playing the game in the other guys end. A faster, more aggressive group of forwards will help those who sacrifice defense for offense to get up and stay up in the NHL.
And by the way, I do believe that grizzly bears originated in the prairies, in places like Tramping Lake, and were driven to the mountains over the decades of human intervention and loss of habitat.
I can almost Imagine chasing bears across the third base line instead of gophers.
To talk about the farm (for a moment). I hope that Woodcroft would run a line up that included something like this in our top 9:
Benson – Marody – Yamamoto
Strong offensive push to see what these new pros can do- plus they are the most talented.
Gambardella – Malone – Russel
Two future, doubtful but maybe, grinders/pk wingers and a vetern defensive centre should see the toughest minutes.
Hebig – Currie – Vesel
Maybe this line is too small, maybe they will feast on the AHL defensemen if the other two can take the hardest match ups.
It might help to put our prospects in position not only to help the Condors win (a couple games at least) and develop them for roles that we hope they might be able to fill one day…
He’s probably just upset that there was no long term offer on the table from the Oilers.
With $4.9 in cap space remaining they would have been hardpressed to even give him $4 long term.
For young guys,I would say Drai and Nurse are developing fine.
Drai away from McDavid just has not had much help on the wings. I will say putting Nurse in his first season (10 games or so in) with Sekera in a top 4/ sometimes top pairing role was not a good move. But then again, McClellan did not have much options at the moment. Last two seasons, Nurses deployment was fine.
Gifting Drake a bunch of minutes in the top 6, some of the handling of JP is head scratching from the coach.
The bigger issues I have with McClellan are the special teams in which the PK was horrific for a huge stretch. And how does a PP with McDavid and Drai do so poorly?
How did that work out?
Vs
How it worked out signing Josi early long term?
The earlier one identifies and signs long term one’s core players the better.
Instead of having Nurse locked down at $5 million something, in two years, it will be $7 million.
A bridge deal is the only option at this stage of Nurses career. He has not proven that he deserves any thing near $5.0m to date. Sounds like his agent is looking for “pie in the sky” , the tone of the conversation sounds like something confrontational like Winter would spout.
rickithebear,
Ricki,
How are you feeling these days? You know that I also know how much of a (insert expletive of your choice) cancer is. As much as I love reading about your ideas, your general wellbeing matters far more.
That said, I concur with BornInAGretzkyJersey‘s sentiment – peer review might just be the thing.
If that’s less your bag but you want to talk about your work offline, I’m working on something that might be of interest. Also might not be. Who knows.
Regardless, if you feel like chatting, drop me a line sometime. stephensheps(at)gmail(dot)com