The Farm
When we moved to Maidstone in the winter of 1971, it was a major adjustment. Moving from Haney BC, where the weather was mild and Stanley Park was a rather common occurrence, the prairies had less curb appeal. I am generally a positive person, and cast about trying to find something to hold on to in my new surroundings.
Saskatchewan in 1971-72 was a time warp in all directions. The schools were more advanced than the ones I left, so much so I almost failed the year we arrived in town. On the other hand, we had far less freedom as kids in Saskatchewan, mostly because there was work to do after school. In BC, our time after school was kind of open, but in my new surroundings we had things to plant, goats to milk and bus rides that took forever (Saskatchewan is miles and miles of miles and miles, I think that’s W.O. Mitchell). By the time I’d been in Maidstone for all four seasons, I’d managed to do all kinds of things to make myself useful as well as ornamental. It was an education.
THE ATHLETIC
Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.
- New Lowetide: Cap decisions of 2017 may continue to hamper 2019 decisions
- Lowetide: Creating the ideal No. 2 line for the 2018-19 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Which RFA’s are the most attractive for offer sheets.
- Scott Burnside: Q&A with new Humboldt Broncos coach Nathan Oystrick.
- James Mirtle: Canada job postings.
- Lowetide: UFA’s still available who can help the 2018-19 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Analyzing the Oilers 2018-19 depth chart (including additions)
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors could be best Oilers AHL team in ages
- Lowetide: Handicapping the race to win jobs on McDavid/Draisaitl wings
- Lowetide: Oilers grab Tobias Rieder in free agency
- Lowetide: Frugal Oilers grab Kyle Brodziak in free agency
- Jonathan Willis: How will Oilers manage rich collection of goalie prospects?
- Lowetide: Is Evan Bouchard NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: The maturation of Daryl Katz, or heading down a dangerous road?
BAKERSFIELD’S FOUR SEASONS
I write a “Farm Workers” post every year, looking at players during different stages of their careers (entry level, second contract-prospects fading, AHLer heading to Europe someday). Eric Rodgers runs the numbers a couple of times during the year from the minors and I post them. He sent me his end of season totals yesterday and I thought it would be a nice idea to post the whole bunch in today’s article. I have placed them in different categories this time, in a way it matches the seasons I saw on the farm years ago. The promise of spring, the strength and power of summer, the gray of September and the long way home. Rodgers gives us estimated time on ice, even-strength goal differential, points-per-game (in all disciplines). That’s a lot, and I thank him.
PROSPECT FWDS WHO SPENT LESS THAN 20 GAMES IN BAKERSFIELD
- This is the group of forwards who mostly started or ended the season in Bakersfield but didn’t spend much time there.
- Jesse Puljujarvi was down on the farm because Kailer Yamamoto played well enough to get a 9-game look. Sending the Finn down was foolishness if they didn’t plan on running him with big minutes. That’s a fact. One of the things Jay Woodcroft should do, and we’ll see, is play the hell out of the kids. They will struggle in October but find their footing by January. You have to play the kids. As for Puljujarvi, No. 2 or No. 3 line duty on right wing in Edmonton is the right play for 2018-19. He’s a good bet to blossom if given enough rope.
- Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson and Tyler Vesel had some success. All three men should be major players in Bakersfield this winter. Marody would be the obvious player from this group for NHL time in 2018-19.
CONDORS DEFENSEMEN
- Keegan Lowe’s goal differential at 5-on-5 is borderline impossible considering the other numbers beside the rest of the defensive group. He’s blocked by Kevin Gravel as No. 7D but someone will get hurt and Lowe is clearly the next man up in terms of actual defending from this group.
- Ethan Bear displayed the same coverage issues we saw in Edmonton when he was in Bakersfield, but those headman passes are going to get him some NHL looks. He might be blocked by Evan Bouchard but the Oilers will need some options if the first-round pick ends up back in junior for one more year.
- Ryan Mantha is a year older than Bear but did display some defensive acumen based on these numbers. We didn’t get a lot of information on his injury until after the season, turns out it’s a worrisome eye issue. Mantha is a good prospect, hopefully he resumes his career in the fall. He played quite a bit with Keegan Lowe.
- Caleb Jones was an adventure, I checked for maladies and ailments but couldn’t find specifics on his 10 games missed. He’ll need to improve that goal differential at 5-on-5.
- Eric Gryba didn’t have a strong showing.
- Dillon Simpson is off to Columbus, I hope he discovers the NHL.
AHL FORWARDS SIGNED TO NHL DEALS
- Ty Rattie could be a huge story this time next season. If he scores 20 NHL goals, Rattie might get a contract for many dollars and several years. What a story! He’ll have to work and pray though, there are two kids who will push him.
- Iiro Pakarinen is what the Oilers hoped Lennart Pettrell would be and a helluva PK man to boot. I’m going to miss him.
- Joey Laleggia signed with St. Louis, I think they’ll use him on defense. The Oilers have uncovered Brad Hunt and Jordan Oesterle in recent years, Laleggia might be next. He’s one dimensional as hell but if that one dimension scores goals then there is value.
- Joe Gambardella’s numbers are mildly encouraging in a “maybe he’ll make the NHL at 27” kind of way.
AHL FORWARDS SIGNED TO AHL DEALS
- Eric’s TOI estimates have this group playing over 4,000 minutes a year ago. That’s too many for AHL contracts but then again some of the team’s best players are from this group.
- Josh Currie is a good hockey player. I sometimes wonder if they ever considered Charles Lingleting him, but no NHL contract arrived. He will player the second year of a two-year NHL deal this winter.
DARNELL
- Nurse’s agent Anton Thun: “At the end of the day, Peter (GM Chiarelli) and (cap specialist) Bill Scott control their cap space and their decisions. They bought out Eric Gryba to add another player (50-man protected list), which cut into their cap and they signed the European goalie (Mikko Koskinen) for two-million and change, and that did the same to their cap space. If they’ve got $5 million in cap space (now), it’s not going to be a long-term deal.” Source
Fascinating quotes from Jim Matheson in his Thursday article, I linked one day ago and wanted to return for a few minutes. The agent is correct, Edmonton used dollars to address the goaltending and then made a curious move (50-man is one option but the Oilers are unlikely to finish close to max at the end of summer).
I think it’s reasonable to suggest management felt all along that a bridge deal would be best. I think Nurse has done some very good things so far but if you’re going to pay a defenseman $5 million that player needs to bring some offense. Nurse has great wheels but lacks creativity with the puck. That isn’t news, we can go to the tape. He is an entirely useful player but we know what we know and at this point signing him to a long-term deal could be a mistake. This is the proper course.
Nurse. 37th in 5-on-5 Pts against elite competition (washed by McDavid effect). 6th in 5-on-5 TOI.
I want to start by posting an exchange I had with Wilde.
He said the goal should be eliteness. I asked him to define eliteness.
I really liked his answer.
“When it comes to an NHL team?
Being rooted strongly enough to only be swayed, but not taken, by all but the most vicious turns of variance and remain past the first stormy season.”
At the heart of that definition in my opinion is the concept of resilience.
So when I read LT’s intro today I was focused on resilience. Which players on the Oilers took on the vicious turns of variance and remained steadfast or rose to the occasion?
That question doesn’t have a lot of answers.
But clearly Darnell Nurse is one Oiler who refused to turn turtle when times were tough.
So how does it change our attitude towards Darnell if instead of focusing on the lack of offensive creativity we focus on the fact he showed up when and where he was needed unlike his teammates?
Its been mind-boggling to me that, over the years, the AHL affiliate has been run seemingly without development of the “real prospects” as the primary goal.
Hopefully, they are all on the same page now and development is the primary goal – with J. Woodcroft as coach, I would think the communication will be more fluid (although it baffles me that this was ever a problem).
With a big influx of talent and “real prospects” for this season (and more coming year after year for the foreseeable future), this is imperative.
Subban won a Norris and got bridged (didn’t he?). That’s what Chia is looking at.
Nurse did bring some offence as his even strength scoring was quite good overall (although, given his high amount of even strength ice, his ESP/60 was not quite as good and McDavid factored into almost half of his points).
I think most Oiler fans would be comfortable signing Nurse for term at any number under $5M but any number over $5M starts to get riskier and riskier.
I don’t like his agent’s approach bringing this public and, although I agree with him, citing management’s other roster decisions is a pretty slimy approach.
Lets get the bridge signed, 1 or 2 years, and see how it goes. I don’t imagine his offence will explode – he’s a transition my skate (as opposed to pass) guy, his vision and offensive instincts are limited and he’ll never really be a good enough distributor for the PP – he will be more expensive on his third contract but we are where we are.
I think he got bridged and then won a Norris.
Thanks. My subjective memory isn’t what it was.
As a fan, sure, it means something.
But as a manager, you sink the fangs into the agent after what was said.
Regarding Nurse being zoomed by McDavid. I think you’ll see the same with any player who played top minutes. Was Hedman zoomed by Stamkos and Kucherov? Of course he was, but we don’t question his points. Top TOI D generally play with the best linemates (and get zoomed) but also face the toughest competition.
On the topic of blog visibility, today for the first time ever I could not see this morning’s post on my old Win 7 machine until I logged in.
Previously I could see that there was a new post up, could open it, but would see only a few comments.
Today all I could see was yesterday’s post.
On the iPad, no problem, but then it keeps me logged in more consistently than the Windows dino-box.
Nurse…big as a tree. I cheer for him to :
Develop his D zone coverage
Work on his O zone “I got the puck in here, now what?” decision making.
I won’t comment on his shot except for saying that it doesn’t have to bulge the twine…only cross the line.
There are a limited number of Elite Players in the NHL at any one time, but just two Generational Players. It’s hard to afford more than one. That’s not always a problem. When on the Ice, Players don’t always face the best of their opponents – some do – there’s just not enough of them to go around. When this happens, the Oilers must have the best Players on the Ice, or play like they do and be the best players on the Ice every single time.
Reading about your childhood move to the prairies makes me smile LT. My 6 children are undergoing a similar adjustment after moving from edmonton to a tiny town called Tramping Lake just south of Unity.
The problem with that is that Nurse struggled against that top competition, and McDavid’s GF/60 was higher without him than with him, and this was in the first season of Nurse’s career that you could attempt to make a claim that Nurse played at a NHL top-4 defenceman level without getting laughed out of this room.
( is what I would say after an agent goes to the local media with what he did )
( although the HC basically saying that Nurse is on his way to being a top pairing D doesn’t help my case )
Well the discussion with the HC should be that the eye test is not enough. Let’s compare numbers. Even though he says he doesn’t know Corsi or any other breed of dog.
A cloudy sky, Maidstone, Modest Mouse, the Greeks, ham in the oven, rye in the toaster, Herbert Huncke on deck, Nurse and nucks, Coltrane and Debussy on the decks – simultaneously (there’s something to be said for that). A Twombley scrawl as visual aid.
It promises an interesting Saturday.
GF% w/o McDavid.
Carry on.
https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1016033971249995776
So which is the actual lake?. Looks like a bunch of slews. Good luck there in all your endeavors.
I prefer to keep my rye in the freezer before I serve it. Enjoy
By the time I’d been in Maidstone for all four seasons, I’d managed to do all kinds of things to make myself useful as well as ornamental.
I’m sure you were always ornamental in your Mother’s eyes, LT.
From Scott Powers article at the Athletic yesterday: https://theathletic.com/430292/2018/07/13/10-thoughts-how-can-the-blackhawks-put-their-newfound-cap-space-to-use/
” One league source said Thursday night the Blackhawks have talked to the Carolina Hurricanes about forward Jeff Skinner and defenseman Justin Faulk. The source said the asking price for both players is Schmaltz and a first-round pick. ”
Imagine if this happened.
Pretty sure the Hurricanes would be the 2018 NYI of the 2019 draft.
Also check out this projected lineup:
Brandon Saad – Jonathan Toews – Player X
Victor Ejdsell – Nick Schmaltz – Patrick Kane
Alex DeBrincat – Artem Anisimov – Dylan Sikura
Chris Kunitz – Marcus Kruger – John Hayden
Andreas Martinsen
Duncan Keith – Jan Rutta
Erik Gustafsson – Brent Seabrook
Brandon Manning – Connor Murphy
…
They’re doomed. How good would Crawford have to be to carry this?
If Dallas doesn’t land Karlsson, Colorado regresses and age catches up to Minnesota, there might be a couple wildcard spots open that would normally be eaten up by the strong Central division.
If if if if if if if.
BONE207,
The lake here is just a big slew lol. Great to be out of the city for sure, thanks for the well wishes.
BONE207,
If my favourite movie of all time – Tremors 1 – is on the tube tonight, I’ll have you to thank for it.
According to NST, here’s Nurse’s 5v5 GF, GA, and +/-.
5v5 situation, GF, GA, +/-
Overall, 69, 56, +13
with CMD, 32, 13, +19
w/o CMD, 37, 43, -6
Here’s Leon’s numbers:
Overall, 59, 61, -2
with CMD, 31, 23, +8
w/o CMD, 28, 38, -10
And here’s Lucic:
Overall, 46, 49, -3
with CMD, 23, 17, +6
w/o CMD, 23, 32, -9
Darnell’s numbers from 16/17:
Overall, 28, 28, 0
with CMD, 13, 6, +7
w/o CMD, 15, 22, -7
Leon’s numbers from 16/17:
Overall, 60, 52, +8
with CMD, 41, 28, +13
w/o CMD, 19, 24, -5
And Lucic:
Overall, 44, 37, +7
with CMD, 22, 12, +10
w/o CMD, 22, 25, -3
Away from CMD, our promising young players look like our broken down old player.
Apart from the ANA series, in the last two seasons, Drai can’t win without CMD on the ice.
Last season, a Taylor Hall team made the playoffs with a, let’s say, not an elite lineup. Hall had a Hart trophy season under a coach he seemed to develop a very strong relationship with. This was after a difficult first season with NJD.
We worry about JP. We can just as easily worry about Drai. Or Nurse, or Klef.
Have any of our players developed under the current HC?
As a long hair in the early 70’s, driving my bright yellow econoline with the shag carpet and union jack curtains, I broke down just outside Maidstone in a little town called Bresaylor. When asked to used the bathroom at the local garage I was told it was downstairs, where I found a toilet seat sitting on top of a 5 gallon can of tractor fluid. The schools may of been more advanced but the plumbing was not.
Georges,
Drai isn’t there yet but it would help if his wingers weren’t Joe Player and Pylon 1.
Would be interesting to source that “miles and miles of miles and miles”. Oddly Alaska AND Texas claim Bob Hope said it of them.
Pretty much anybody who plays with McDavid gets zoomed.
When McDavid is on the bench, there is nobody on The backend or forward group that can drive results. Maybe Drai.
Head coaching?
Don’t have the horses?
I’d say both
Every Team has their moment in the sun, some more often than others. Was the 2016/2017 Season/Postseason the Oilers’ moment in the sun? Blatant anti-Oiler officiating cost the Oilers game after game. Better, but still not close to equal officiating would advance the Oilers to the next round. Would it occur soon enough to forestall the Sekera injury? Second Line had negligible offense, which cost two players their future with the Team – as it should. Just barely average offense from this line has the Oilers outscoring the opposition and advancing the Oilers.
We can complain all we want about Oiler decisions, but all that does is just show the type of people we are – sometimes not favourably. All the decisions a Team makes control how they finish. That in turn decides who they can draft. Better decisions changes Team standings which changes who you can draft. Would you rather not have Connor McDavid on your Team?
An indoor five gallon can with a toilet seat on it is preferable to an outdoor biffy when it’s 40 below out.
That girl is hot!!!
Hahaha well said. Another applicable term would be the old wrestling phrase “jobbers.”
For those who aren’t familiar, this was was those disposable no name guys who would wrestle the stars in old WWF Sat. morning shows.
Seems apt for the cast of characters Drai was Saitled with for much of the season. Give him Rieder and Puju and some time.
Georges,
Georges…why do hate TMac?
You always have the numbers to back it up too. While you have convinced me, I hope the new assistants make a difference.
Don’t know if I agree but I guess if someone likes Reba McIntyre that’s their choice
1. The 15/16 team was the 14/15 team plus 45 games of CMD, plus Sekera, plus Talbot, plus the veteran, winning HC. The horse trading started after the results of that season. We thought at that point we learned something about our players. Turns out, with more time and more data, we learned something about our HC.
2. You talk about players driving results. Very, very few players drive results from the back end. And very, very few non first-line forwards drive results. It’s a team game. Coaches get their players to play like a team and outplay the other team. The league is getting better at identifying and eliminating big skill differences between the mass of players. The 16/17 team had the best forward horses in the WC entering the playoffs. But we were horse-trading again after our grotesque 2nd round exit because the HC wasn’t particularly fond of some of the horses.
All would swell in the world if all women looked as well at 63 as Reba does.
BONE207,
I was gonna say that might be debatable. But then I’ve got a thing for Mary Berry.
Optimism is like heroin,
I haven’t been to Tramping Lake since the school closed.
Used to play some sporting events in that old gymnasium.
When you don’t speak the language, it’s not only the nuances that get missed but some of the substance can get missed as well. Too many coaches make young Players earn playing time, earn more minutes. Sometimes it’s for lack of concentration, sometimes it’s to work on stuff that needs improving. When you are trying to develop younger Players, that might not be the best policy. After seeing the development of Jesse Puljujarvi almost stall, the Oilers apparently agree. What this says about future development? That remains to be seen.
If the AHL works well,
Hopkins-McDavid-Yamamoto
Benson-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Lucic-Strome-Rieder
Gambardella -Khaira-Marody
Caggiula-Aberg
Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse – Bouchard
Sekera- Benning
Bear
Koskinen
Skinner
I agree that Chiarelli should be coming back at them with more in depth and “fancy” stats, but what I’m saying is that Nurse’s agent has some pretty strong basic stats (and truthfully that is what often dictates contracts rather than fancy stats). I think he can demand more than we are expecting. I think even on a bridge, he might get closer to $4M.
I recall Darnell taking two slap shots this season. Both in the same game (against the Coyotes). He scored on both. He then went back to taking muffin wristers from the point for the remainder of the season.
Edit: https://youtu.be/x_Mlh7n-fW8
He’s got a hammer when he uses it.
3. Again, have any of our players developed under the current HC? Drai’s GF60 away from CMD is 2.67. That’s borderline 2nd line, high 3rd line. Yeah, I know. Lucic. Bad rest of cast. But he was just 31 and 23 (+8) with CMD. That Karlsson line in VGK was +30 something in around twice the time. CMD-Drai were nowhere near that level of dominance. Heck, they weren’t near it last season either, the season after which, along with that stretch against ANA, Drai got paid. Forget JP. Is Drai getting better under this HC?
Sorry VOR,
Suck at spelling.
What is the accurate non contradictory rules that define spelling.
My wife often gets called on spelling.
But depending on the structure of (wire service) there is a diffrent groups of copy standard.
She writes to that base depending what pool it is expected to hit.
Me spelling only mattered in Contracts at work & Univ.
Invested up to 6 Hr a night (10pm – 4am) for the first 4 yrs.
Organizing the basis for what I would call my 4th child.
That intellectual Property matters.
My inability to understand humans cannot work out math data volumes in brain.
Was a huge failing on my part.
Not understanding people need pictures and calculators built for them to get it.
Open Book Persona a function of the trusting Naive character built into me by a spiritual compassionate mother. We’re I witnessed moments during travel that let her children have one of a kind world experience.
My family have thier own version of were is Waldo.
Take Selfies with me in background openly talking to people about thier area and them during vacations.
They locals often tell you about hidden gems experiences.
Jethro:
I lost my mother to brain Cancer.
I got my belief that no child under 16 should be victim of who they are born too from her.
1.kids for Cancer
2. Local Family Shelters
3. Steering Kinsmen group to school based access programs: Food, Clothes,…..
Went thru Cancer scare with my wife and all the screening.
I have had 5 tough yrs of health.
High missed day counts.
Independent of 4 hospital stays of over 7 days for infection and Pnuemonia. In last 2 years.
Finally to have Dr. Slaby show me curves of blood test records.
That hinted at a reason for the illness.
To find out I have Bone Marrow Cancer.
Multiple Myeloma.
Advised I likely had it for 4-5 years.
High lesion areas in large bones.
Have my T10-T11 collapse
My left and right wrist break.
Look for all current research.
USDA breaking down structures of foods.
Building menu off foods to exclude relative to research on chem effectiveness suppression.
Feeling the joy of hearing your doctor say I have had amazing start to recovery.
Protien counts go from 88 to 44 to 17 in 2 cycles.
Be referred Tom Baker for Cell Transplant consult on July 24.
My families ability to continue life economically without me is important.
But bullshitting about it!
What decent human being could …………
or
Even think it possible.
My wife often says she experienced my Rainman and Beutiful Mind moments.
Went thru the pains of theory development.
It matters to her.
The ethics of crediting is important to her.
As it is to me.
Klima’s_Bucket,
I live across the street and its sad ….. just a run down junk yard now
rickithebear,
Mr TheBear,
May I submit that if you want to retain your legacy that you submit your data for peer review, as has been requested before?
People are interested in your theories, but it’s hard to glean what you mean from your usual posts, and there are few (if any) chances to cross reference your numbers against the big picture when the data are kept secret.
Georges:
GF – GA
What is (12 yrs – code for you should look at)
win% for and rate of
1, 2, 3, 4 reg ssn GA
1, 2,3,4 playoff GA
1, 2, 3, 4 reg ssn GF
1, 2, 3, 4 playoff GF
Oilers had cup core roster:
Had 2 bullshit Good goal calls cost them a shot at the 2 of 3 championships (WC/Cup) available to them.
I understand that Now.
When Willis offered the opportunity to present at start of Copper & Blue.
Was the critical failed opportunity.
But Coal Power Plant survival/conversion was starting.
Wife & I discussed that with understanding she would edit up communication effectiveness of my work.
Decided that not enough time for her.
rickithebear,
Ricki,
How are you feeling these days? You know that I also know how much of a (insert expletive of your choice) cancer is. As much as I love reading about your ideas, your general wellbeing matters far more.
That said, I concur with BornInAGretzkyJersey‘s sentiment – peer review might just be the thing.
If that’s less your bag but you want to talk about your work offline, I’m working on something that might be of interest. Also might not be. Who knows.
Regardless, if you feel like chatting, drop me a line sometime. stephensheps(at)gmail(dot)com
A bridge deal is the only option at this stage of Nurses career. He has not proven that he deserves any thing near $5.0m to date. Sounds like his agent is looking for “pie in the sky” , the tone of the conversation sounds like something confrontational like Winter would spout.
How did that work out?
Vs
How it worked out signing Josi early long term?
The earlier one identifies and signs long term one’s core players the better.
Instead of having Nurse locked down at $5 million something, in two years, it will be $7 million.
For young guys,I would say Drai and Nurse are developing fine.
Drai away from McDavid just has not had much help on the wings. I will say putting Nurse in his first season (10 games or so in) with Sekera in a top 4/ sometimes top pairing role was not a good move. But then again, McClellan did not have much options at the moment. Last two seasons, Nurses deployment was fine.
Gifting Drake a bunch of minutes in the top 6, some of the handling of JP is head scratching from the coach.
The bigger issues I have with McClellan are the special teams in which the PK was horrific for a huge stretch. And how does a PP with McDavid and Drai do so poorly?
He’s probably just upset that there was no long term offer on the table from the Oilers.
With $4.9 in cap space remaining they would have been hardpressed to even give him $4 long term.
To talk about the farm (for a moment). I hope that Woodcroft would run a line up that included something like this in our top 9:
Benson – Marody – Yamamoto
Strong offensive push to see what these new pros can do- plus they are the most talented.
Gambardella – Malone – Russel
Two future, doubtful but maybe, grinders/pk wingers and a vetern defensive centre should see the toughest minutes.
Hebig – Currie – Vesel
Maybe this line is too small, maybe they will feast on the AHL defensemen if the other two can take the hardest match ups.
It might help to put our prospects in position not only to help the Condors win (a couple games at least) and develop them for roles that we hope they might be able to fill one day…
Back in the day playing baseball in Tramping Lake was about warm winds, pick up trucks (we called them 1/2 tons where I came from, pick up truck was an American term (spits) Being at the plate in Tramping Lake meant a hopeful possibility of pounding the ball over the crest of the hill that was centre field – and into the lake. As it were.
Now, as far as Bear’s chances are concerned, my naked eye saw him improve his defensive awareness and skill with each game up last year. At first he would get beat inside, then it was outside and then he was shoving the attacker back into the corners or behind the net and tying him up. Seems like a ‘hockey smart’ kid.
The best defense is playing the game in the other guys end. A faster, more aggressive group of forwards will help those who sacrifice defense for offense to get up and stay up in the NHL.
And by the way, I do believe that grizzly bears originated in the prairies, in places like Tramping Lake, and were driven to the mountains over the decades of human intervention and loss of habitat.
I can almost Imagine chasing bears across the third base line instead of gophers.
Here is hoping Nurse gets bridged and then wins a Norris as well.
Yes, his o-zone decision making needs to continue to progress – well, “needs to” if he’s going to be a legit top pairing guy.
He took very nice strides in this area last year – he at least stopped taking the puck down super low in the o-zone and often behind the net. He made a play here and there and seemed to be coming along, however, from my eyes, he regressed in this area in the 2nd half of the season.
I wonder if that regression in the o-zone decision making is related to essentially taking over from Klefbom at the 1LD?
McDavid with Nurse had a 71% goal share – in 540 minutes – WOW!
McDavid was down to 50% without Nurse – in 800 minutes
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477498&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
Their relative goal share together was a plus 26 – that is a mind-boggling number.
Am I misinterpreting these stats or is McDavid and Nurse something?
Vezina Talbot?
First Shot Talbot?
The Finnish Wall?
Considering how good the Oilers are at all things goalies…
Brossoit should be the best goalie in the league in 2 years.
Joe G. needs to take a massive step forward this season if he is ever going to play an NHL game.
Third line AHLers don’t become NHLers – its only his second year pro but he’ll be 25 prior to the turn of the calendar.
I think one (two if the hockey gods smile) of McLeod, Maksimov, Safin (and even McPhee or Rasanen) may have a better shot if we are talking a couple years down the road.
Sekera will eventually be replaced with one of Samorukov, Lagesson, Jones, Persson, Berglund, Kemp – hopefully.
When he has the time and space to walk in to it, yes, he can bomb the puck (but so can most NHL d-men) – its when he doesn’t have the space to walk in to one where his shot is below average (at least in my mind).
Its like the opposite of a guy like Brent Burns who seems to be able to get a hard shot on net in all situations – off his back foot, small wind-up, etc.
Optimism is like heroin,
What directed you to Tramping Lake of all places?
It won’t be $7M unless his offence spikes to 40 (consistently) which I don’t see.
No it’s something. It’s friendship power.
I noticed this like midway through the season, it’s a 5% stopping rate difference.
If you look at 2016-17 though the same thing to a different degree happened(and with the PDO being pulled in the opposite direction), but then you could also explain it away then as Nurse being on the 3rd pairing and so if McDavid was on with him, they were probably facing non-elite competition and it’s expected McDavid shreds those minutes independent of whatever Dmen are on with him.
But that’d be two years of (lazily) writing it off, so.
Friendship power.
Now how much of that time was Larsson on the ice as well?
241 minutes and the results without Larsson were better than with him
Also McDavid with LArsson but without Nurse had 45% GF, five goals against per hour, which is nuts
Also also I don’t actually have a fully formed opinion on the Nurse-McDavid phenomenon
Next year will tell little about Darnell Nurse. By January of the following year, a better idea of what he brings will be known. He will never be a #1 D, or it would be readily apparent by now. I have doubts that he is a #2 D. If he’ll take Klefbom/Larsson monies sign him. If not, the Oilers might have to trade him.
For Oil Kings fans:
————————————————————————————————————-
Emmanuel Perry
@manny_hockey
9 minutes ago
Vladimir Alistrov (taken 2nd overall in the import draft by the Edmonton Oil Kings) projects to be a top-10 pick in 2019. Very interested to see how he performs next season.
————————————————————————————————————-
Evan Bouchard will move fast, might even start in game one. The Oilers should know real quick if he’s a #1 D or just 1st Pairing, or just Top 4 D.
Ethan Bear will move fast, but not right away. He might be a #1 D or 1st Pairing, but if not, he’s easily Top 4 D.
Matthew Benning is developing into a solid Top 4 D, but he definitely not 1st Pairing.
Adam Larsson’s contract expires in three years so some very hard decisions must be made. Someone might get traded, as Right Shot D looks covered for more than a few years.
Klima’s_Bucket,
Not many places that fit a family of 8 so the old nunnery here works great.
“Ethan Bear will move fast, but not right away”
– Oxymoron
300 minutes with Larsson and 240 w/o Larsson.
Goal share doesn’t change much at all (70.8% with Larsson and 71.4% without):
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477498&p3=8476457&p4=0&p5=0
Did you mean Mary Carey? 🙂
Hey LT,
I can relate to your move, we moved from Surrey in the summer of 77 to a farm West of Edmonton. ’twas a shock for me at many levels, even at 9 years old.
When I was around 14 or 15, we started raising goats.
Maybe.
Nobody there a top 4 D at this time besides Larsson.
Wilde,
OriginalPouzar,
So what you guys are saying is that Nurse is feeding off of the McDavid bromance energy and helps push the puck forward more than anyone else while McDavid is on the ice, and McDavid seems to lose his mojo when Larsson is on the ice without Nurse???
?
I hope Draisaitl and Rieder have friendship power also.
Absolutely, but you need to correctly identify those players and their worth.
What if Nurse wants 6M?
How high would you go on an 8 year deal?
Sort of Donald Trump like. Are you a fan?
The certainty with which some posit their various speculations is quite mind boggling to me at times.
It might be fun, or of some interest to those whose avocations are more deeply rooted in historical data – doing a bit of contrast and compare between Larry Robinson (and the Habs 73/74 roster…6g/20a) at evens and Darnell. 17/18 – 6g/20a at evens.
And now Yawney joins the Oilers. So just for fun. Just sayin’…as the cliche goes.
Speculate away.
Off topic.
Who do you guys have as your top five worst NHL GM’s (currently employed in that role)?
I think Chiarelli and Bergevin are locks for the top two worst. Then there’s the mess in Florida depending on how much you want to blame Tallon… Botterill in Buffalo. Benning? Sakic? Chayka? Holland? Sweeney?
I saw someone post this the other day but how do i use naturalstat to find find out how much time a player was on the ice with each of his teammates. I know who to use the line tool for WOWY but swear I saw a link showing the ice of time a of a player with all his teammates.
Thanks.
I guess anything is possible, but projecting Bear to easily be a top 4 dman seems very premature.
I would be happy if he could handle 3rd pairing minutes and quarterback the 2nd powerplay unit. Anything more seems a tad bit optimistic.
northerndancer,
I can almost Imagine chasing bears across the third base line instead of gophers.
I would venture a guess that bears were smaller then. The bears I’ve met would rather do the chasing.
He might be talking about Harry Carey or even Mariah Carey. I believe he once wrote about being in the age of retirement.
That sounds like the intro to a very good joke. I’ll wait…
Larsson can be a scary fella
Here is Connor McDavid sorted by on ice counts, it lists with or without. You can change by player via prompt at the top.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8478402
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqUiWpGGCmI
Ahhh, there is a “teamates” option – thank you.
Go 5 set match with another long fifth set!
Go Croatia!
#Ilovesports
Have to go for them now. Have a feeling it’d be Denmark here instead though if they’d have just won those penalties (and they match up well against France, even if to a sluggish stalemate degree). I guess they were playing like New Jersey/Minnesota the whole tournament, so the boring play finally caught up to them.
Any other exciting sporting events going on?
**Again with update for Oil Kings fans:
Drafted #2 Overall by the Oil Kings in the CHL Import Draft, Belarusian forward Vladimir Alistrov is #6 in Emmanuel Perry’s early early 2019 NHL draft list with:
– 96.07% chance to be drafted in 2019
– 80.19% chance to make the NHL (!!!!!)
– cohorts* of Canucks prospect Petrus Palmu, Clarke McArthur, Sebastian Aho, and Markus Granlund
*cohorts is a measure that collects the group of players who produced within a certain percentage (typically 5%) of the prospect when they were the same age
At 6’2″ already as well, I’d expect him to be able to step in and contribute immediately, and shortly come to dominate.
Wilde,
I guess the Oilers can get a front row viewing into his development?
Ooops, wrong thread.
“The last July trade made by the Oilers came in 2015 (Liam Coughlin for Anders Nilsson) and the last big one took place in 2013 (Magnus Paajarvi and a second-round pick for David Perron). There are areas where the club could improve but the selection of Evan Bouchard, the decision to go all-in on youth at right wing, the conclusion that playing Milan Lucic in Edmonton is better than giving up another big piece of the future as sweetener, all seem to have conspired to make this a quiet summer. I suggested keeping the powder dry was the best route in this situation. It appears to have also been the assessment of management. A trade this summer could happen, but bleeding the future is apparently no longer an option. That’s a good decision, now it’s up to the kids.”
I could not agree more – Yes, divesting of the Lucic contract remains on the “to do list” but I believe that management needs to be patient and wait for a reasonable deal. Giving up too much value in order to get a team to take the contract does not make sense at a point where the prospect pool is just starting to gain some depth and potential. Lets keep building, be patient and wait for the opportunities to make smart moves.
I think we are going to regret not signing Nurse to a long term deal. Salary caps have been growing a lot faster than available talent, especially that few good players actually make it to free agency anymore. This will make teams throw lots of money at not so good players, which has really taken off this offseason, which will also raise comparable for other players. Also the cost of poaching other players is pretty low 1,2,3 rd round picks for an 8 mil contracts. I think some of these teams that have trouble attracting talent but want to take the next step are going to start trying to get talent the only way they can outside of the draft, by poaching it from other teams.