Chest Fever

by Lowetide

The NHL doesn’t make many trades from mid-July through the final days of September, so we’re in Death Valley for the next 10 weeks. How scarce is it to see a legit trade this time of year? The last deal to move the needle made between July 15 and August 1 came in 2016 when Ottawa sent Mika Zibanejad to the Rangers for Derick Brassard. There is some evidence we’ll see action in the coming days but for Oilers fans this fall may be about unproven wingers trying to forge their way. Again.

THE ATHLETIC

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

MAKING BETS

There are some massive bets to be made on this Oilers roster this fall and winter, I think we’ve reached a point where we can assume this is us. Here are, in order of balls, the biggest bets on the team.

  1. Ty Rattie. He probably gets first chance with Connor McDavid, and if he can hold the job we’ll be talking about him as the modern Blair MacDonald. You may recall MacDonald scored 46 goals in his only full season playing alongside Wayne Gretzky. I’m guessing Rattie scores 12-17 goals while holding the job with 97 for most but not all of the year.
  2. Mikko Koskinen. Edmonton hit the market with $6.35 million for four players (Koskinen, Gravel, Brodziak, Rieder) and the highest paid is the fellow with four games experience. Spending 39 percent of your entire free-agent budget on an unproven goalie has the chance to backfire. It reminds me of Whitey Herzog, another risk taker (baseball manager and GM): When things went well he looked like a genius, when they backfired it was front page news.
  3. Leon Draisaitl. He’s going to be asked to drive his own line, and despite some good numbers away from Connor McDavid (without 97: 2.01 5-on-5 per 60 scoring in 628 minutes, 50.42 Corsi for 5-on-5) Leon posted just 42 percent of the goal share. What’s more, beyond new arrival Tobias Rieder there are several candidates the team likes for the No. 2 line who may in fact be a drag on success. On the positive side, math suggests a couple of interesting names (wrote about it here) on the roster.
  4. Milan Lucic. A lot of talk surrounding his point total as a measure of quality, but he struggled during his 50-point season, too. One of the major pressure points of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the third line.
  5. Kailer Yamamoto. The collective inertia at right wing is good news for everyone at the position, with Yamamoto poised to grab a skill job should anyone falter. Can he endure the rigors of a long pro season? There’s a good chance we’ll find out by spring.

SCORING WINGER

I agree with the Oilers organization in regard to finding scoring wingers internally, mostly because their are good candidates for the job. Ty Rattie scored well in a small sample size, Kailer Yamamoto is potentially big video dynamite in a small package and Jesse Puljujarvi has all the tools to be a locomotive on skates. You know, if this were a building team, if this were Connor McDavid’s rookie season, we might even be excited about it. As it is, impatience rules the world and that’s understandable.

One year ago, we were looking at possible right wingers for the 2017-18 club and discussing Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Strome, Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen and Ty Rattie.

This summer, it’s Ty Rattie, Tobias Rieder, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Pontus Aberg, Zack Kassian. Losing Leon from the depth chart is a big deal, but betting on two first-round selections, a veteran like Rieder and a swath of 14 games that included 129 minutes with Connor McDavid (and a 13-7 goal differential 5-on-5) represents an investment and a leap of faith. I believe in both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, looks like the Edmonton Oilers do as well. That’s the takeaway from this summer.

Is there another shoe to drop?

The last July trade made by the Oilers came in 2015 (Liam Coughlin for Anders Nilsson) and the last big one took place in 2013 (Magnus Paajarvi and a second-round pick for David Perron). There are areas where the club could improve but the selection of Evan Bouchard, the decision to go all-in on youth at right wing, the conclusion that playing Milan Lucic in Edmonton is better than giving up another big piece of the future as sweetener, all seem to have conspired to make this a quiet summer. I suggested keeping the powder dry was the best route in this situation. It appears to have also been the assessment of management. A trade this summer could happen, but bleeding the future is apparently no longer an option. That’s a good decision, now it’s up to the kids.

50-MAN JULY 13, 2016

CURRENT 50-MAN

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rickithebear

15-16:
16th best team 221GF
17th best team 219GF
EDM #25 203 gf (-18)

16th best team 222 GA
17th best team 224 GA
EDM #27 245 GA (-23)

16th best team (-4) GD
17th best team (-11) GD
PAC Div winner (+26) GD
WC Wild Card (+10) GD
EDM #28 (-42) GD

16-17
16th best team 226GF
17th best team 223GF
EDM #8 247 GF (+21)

16th best team 227 GA
17th best team 234 GA
EDM #8 212 GA (+15)

16th best team (+5)GD
17th best team (-1) GD
PAC Div winner (+23) GD
WC Wild Card (+5) GD
EDM #6 (+35) GD

17-18
16th best team 242 GF
17th best team 239 GF
EDM #20 234 GF (-8)

16th best team 243GA
17th best team 245GA
EDM #25 263 GA (-20)

16th best team (-4) GD
17th best team (-11) GD
PAC Div winner (+44) GD
WC Wild Card (+20) GD
EDM #28 (-29) GD

rickithebear

Georges: Your formula here and your earlier calculation don’t match. Also, you may be making too fine a point. Have you checked to see whether per GP and per 60 are that different?

The formula was diffrent.
It was slightly more accurate based on OT/so games.
Thier is an in crease of .6 to .8% in team TOI
A variance 2.60 +/- .002

A-Frame

Bag of Pucks: But I’m also not a person that tends to live in the past. Hall and the ‘Barzal’ pick is gone. It is what is. But so are the picks for Talbot, and the rhetoric is overwhelmingly negative on the Reinhart trade and largely crickets on the Talbot deal. That seems unbalanced to me.

I’m confused… Are you saying that the net value of the Talbot trade is in any way comparable to the net value of the Reinhart trade????

Reinhart Trade:
– 16th pick (mid first round)
– 33rd pick (early second round)
+ 30 games played by Reinhard (29 reg season, 1 playoffs)
+ 2 assists (1 reg season, 1 playoffs)

Talbot:
– 57th pick (late second round)
– 79th pick (mid third round)
– 184th pick (early seventh round)
+ 209th pick (late seventh round)
+ 3 years of an NHL calibre starting goalie (with another year left on his contract)

You might not agree that Talbot’s 2017-2018 season was starting goalie calibre, even so you can’t argue with the fact that he was an NHL calibre player. Regardless of what you think of Talbot’s last season, there is a MASSIVE gap in the net value of these two trades.

The Reinhart trade was awful at the time and didn’t get any better with hindsight. The Talbot trade appeared to be very positive at the time and I think it is pretty easy to make the case that Talbot has covered the bet of a late 2nd, mid 3rd, and swap of 7th round picks.

frjohnk

Georges: I was calling to question the poster’s statement that the league was in fear of the EDM forward group in 15-16

Opposing GM’s who had players coming up for free agency, feared the Oilers bottom 6.

With Hall and or McDavid off the ice, that Oilers group had a GF% of 33%.

With Hall and or McDavid on the ice, the GF% was 51%.

Soup Fascist

Bag of Pucks: My issue with this is the obsessive focus on the Hall and Reinhart trades at the expense of all of the smaller smart moves the GM has made.

I’ve said it before but the gauge should be how the overall portfolio is managed vs. focusing on one or two isolated transactions. The 50 man list and amateur procurement process has been demonstrably better imo.

LT, I also don’t understand your reluctance to parse the Reinhart and Hall trades in their proper context, which was Katz wanting the D situation fixed ASAP with the new building opening. These pressures were there. They were evident. They were real.

Ironically, your happiness over Chiarelli’s quiet summer this year may largely be due to the fact that the GM is finally operating with less owner interference. Though the Red Wine Summits are always lurking…

So other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

Professor Q

Wilde: They’re actually pretty loaded everywhere but in goal at the NHL level right now. Stacked at forward like the Jets are, and a similar calibre farm team.

I was simply referring to the Hellebuyck and goaltending situation, and how it happened for Winnipeg. The Flyers have done very well, indeed, and I think the goaltending situation isn’t nearly as bad as Winnipeg’s so they won’t have to rely on a surprise season from a then-third string goaltender who suddenly becomes a starter.

Georges

rickithebear:
Georges:
GAA is a per 60 rate.
teams do not play the same minutes in a 82 gm season.
An accurate measure would be
(Gf/(TM Total TOI/60)/SSN GA

You maybe to young to under stand Cheeky bastard is like a wink.

It was about a cup winnable offence.
With a cup winnable Defence in 16-17

Your formula here and your earlier calculation don’t match. Also, you may be making too fine a point. Have you checked to see whether per GP and per 60 are that different?

Georges

Richard S.S.:
Georges,

When fairly comparing the Teams that Crosby and McDavid joined when entering league, include in the comparison of how good the Teams were at the time.There was as I recall a marked difference.Pittsburgh had a good NHL Team, while Edmonton comparably had the equivalent of a good AHL Team.

In 03-04, PIT got outscored by 113 goals and finished 30th with 58 points.

In 05-06, PIT got outscored by 67 goals and finished 29th with 58 points.

In 14-15, EDM got outscored by 83 goals and finished 28th with 62 points.

In 15-16, EDM got outscored by 43 goals and finished 29th with 70 points.

This is how good the teams were before and at the time that the players joined their teams.

I think CMD is a generational talent. I’m not trying to build an argument against this. I was calling to question the poster’s statement that the league was in fear of the EDM forward group in 15-16… by pointing out their actual performance.

Scungilli Slushy

frjohnk:
To add to my post above.

Yamamoto, JP, Rattie, Rieder, are all talked about as possibilities on the right wing I n the top 6.

Why not put Strome up there? He is our 4th best forward. I think he would be a good fit in the top 6, he is skilled, has a good shot and has scored well when playing with McDavid and Drai. Limited minutes though. I know that leaves JJ and Brodziak as the bottom 6 centres but if having Strome as a winger helps stop the bleeding of what looks to be a revolving door of wingers on the right side in the top 6, it’s maybe something the Oilers need to look at doing.

I think this is smart. TM didn’t like it for some reason.

As long as Strome is strong defensively and. McD’s wingers need to be D zone champs as Connor will have his eyes up ice, and they need to be a part of getting him the puck in conjunction with the D.

Jaxon

When we talk about Chiarelli’s success in Boston is it really his success? This from Jeff Gorton’s wiki page:

“In his time as interim general manager of the Bruins, Gorton most notably ran the 2006 NHL Entry Draft which produced for the Bruins Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic and Brad Marchand. At the same draft, Gorton traded goaltender Andrew Raycroft to the Toronto Maple Leafs for goalie prospect Tuukka Rask.[4]. Raycroft was coming off a subpar season and his two-year stint in Toronto would prove disastrous, with the Leafs buying him out of the final year of his contract.[5] Rask, meanwhile, had been selected in the first round of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft by Toronto and went on to win the Vezina Trophy as the league’s best goaltender in the 2013-14 season.[6]. On July 1, Gorton signed Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard as free agents. Chara would go on to win the Norris trophy in 2009 as the NHL’s best defenseman while under the contract signed by Gorton.”

I think Gorton may be more responsible for Cup win than Chiarelli.

I’m a huge fan of what Gorton did in the draft this year: Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist, and Jacob Ragnarsson – all players I had ranked pretty high based on production. And one of the best goalies in the draft in Olof Lindbom. They decided to blow things up and rebuild mid-season and aggressively added draft picks and young players. Gorton may be a future GM of the year.

CallighenMan

flyfish1168: The Devils under Lou made the Stanley Cup playoffs all but three times between 1988 and 2012, qualified for five Stanley Cup Finals (in 1995, 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2012) and won the Stanley Cup three times (in 1995, 2000 and 2003).

Chiarelli was hired on May 26, 2006, as GM of the Boston Bruins. 2011, Chiarelli won the Stanley Cup. 2015 fired. Record with Bruins playoffs missed 2 times

I believe, however, the comment you are responding to was about Lou’s “cap history” and that is certainly far less impressive than the Devils’ glory years playing the trap.

Oh, and that was my first post. VERY LOooOoNg time lurker though…

I was forced to come out of the shadows by web paranoia 😉

pts2pndr

Lowetide: Meh. Chiarelli is the general manager, the buck stops there. I understand the difficult in dealing with interfering owners, have recommended the Jim Devellano book many times. It’s still PC’s responsibility to help the team, not hurt. He made bad trades, there’s no reasonable way to work off that hook.

Even with his bad trades the blame should be placed directly at the feet of his predecessor. MacT gave away petry for a 3rd round draft choice. He is also responsible for a coaching hire that devalued the team to such an extent that only a generational player could be used to bring in a first pairing D. This same hire was also the cause of the Devan Dubnyk give away! Chiarelli was brought in to fix a hot smelly mess!
I will agree Chiarelli owns the Hall trade but the Reinhart trade by my take is a shared mistake by group think by people in place prior to Chiarelli’s hire. The draft has improved as has the player pipeline that will start to show value shortly. There have been a number of small trades and signings that have also helped! The bottom line is there are a number of fans that will never be OK with the Hall trade and I understand that. It is however time to move on!

OriginalPouzar

frjohnk: He has not played center at all.

93 faceoffs in his career 39% win rate.
These weredue to his centerman getting kicked out and him taking the faceoff.

I think the Oilers would like to see Strome become a 2 way centerman who can play all situations.I believe he did better as a winger in the top 6 than 3rd line centerman

I liked Strome as 3C – I thought he did a nice job and could have had material more boxcars of his linemates could cash (I think he as underrated vision on heboffensive zone and made some nice cross ice set ups).

With that said, he was the best RW option in the top 6 last year and I think it should be explored more if Kailer or Jesse aren’t able to step up.

Khaira being able to play 3C would help a lot but it’s asking a bit too much at this point.

JimmyV1965

flyfish1168: Better GM then Chia– Kyle Dubas ???Islanders with Lou is better

I think Lou ran the Devils into the ground and his early moves with the Islanders don’t look promising. You can probably guess who I think was running the show in Toronto.

frjohnk

To add to my post above.

Yamamoto, JP, Rattie, Rieder, are all talked about as possibilities on the right wing I n the top 6.

Why not put Strome up there? He is our 4th best forward. I think he would be a good fit in the top 6, he is skilled, has a good shot and has scored well when playing with McDavid and Drai. Limited minutes though. I know that leaves JJ and Brodziak as the bottom 6 centres but if having Strome as a winger helps stop the bleeding of what looks to be a revolving door of wingers on the right side in the top 6, it’s maybe something the Oilers need to look at doing.

Scungilli Slushy

Wilde:
Curiosity struck me while reviewing video and being re-subjected to the team’s abysmal discipline while leading – giving up chance after chance to let opposing teams back into the game(and Talbot often granting them a tally on their first try).

Looked it up, and Edmonton had the 9th highest SCA/60 while leading, and the 4th highest HDCA/60 while leading.

GA/60? Deal last. By a lot. 3.58/60, next closest was 3.24/60 and 10th worst 2.60.

Just awful. It wasn’t just on Talbot for letting in the first shot against after a goal, the Oilers threw games with vigor.

Which is why I say the Oilers aren`t missing their Panarin, they are missing their Recchi.

They have tried a bit, but can`t seem to find the mark. Connor and Leon need a veteran winger who can help out the D side of the game and still play in the O zone.

Maybe JP goes savant and can be reliable that way but it`s another high risk gamble, because it takes most players years to find a strong balance two ways.

System play is another yuuge influence on all players and especially goalies. The Oilers were awful last year meeting basic assignments and playing in a stable manner, outside of a few. If the new coaches can settle them down, everyone will look much better and the goal ratio will improve.

Not many teams make the playoffs of go very far if they aren`t as a team strong in this.

frjohnk

OriginalPouzar: I know that Rieder can play all three forward positions but is center an actual realistic option for him or can he play center in the same way that Caggulia can play center?

He has not played center at all.

93 faceoffs in his career 39% win rate.
These were due to his centerman getting kicked out and him taking the faceoff.

OriginalPouzar: Ryan Strome has sparkling numbers with both McDavid and Leon (and, with Leon, in almost 200 minutes). Nice possession metrics and great goal share percentage (and great relative goal share).

I’m not sure why he wasn’t given more time in the top 6 because the Oilers were getting more than they gave up when he was with Leon or Connor.

I think the Oilers would like to see Strome become a 2 way centerman who can play all situations. I believe he did better as a winger in the top 6 than 3rd line centerman

Wilde

Professor Q: They just need to have Hart take over one year and the team become yet again a lucky lottery team, *then* blow up the next few seasons.

They’re actually pretty loaded everywhere but in goal at the NHL level right now. Stacked at forward like the Jets are, and a similar calibre farm team.

leadfarmer

flyfish1168,

Yeah can you please take a smaller contract. We need to pay these other guys whatever they want has always worked in the past. Don’t think they will take almost half of Matthews contract, just like when Draisatl found out what Mcdavid got

OriginalPouzar

I know that Rieder can play all three forward positions but is center an actual realistic option for him or can he play center in the same way that Caggulia can play center?

Ryan Strome has sparkling numbers with both McDavid and Leon (and, with Leon, in almost 200 minutes). Nice possession metrics and great goal share percentage (and great relative goal share).

I’m not sure why he wasn’t given more time in the top 6 because the Oilers were getting more than they gave up when he was with Leon or Connor.

leadfarmer

flyfish1168,

Maybe old Lou. New Lou is quite terrible and had a truly puzzling UFA signing period and that is without Tavares leaving them

OriginalPouzar

Wilde:
Wilde,

With Hart serving the Hellebuyck post

Bah – Hart was just outplayed by Skinner in the playoffs.

Yes, I’m being fictitious, I’m well aware of how elite a prospect Carter Hart is.

flyfish1168

Wilde: Lou’s salary cap NHL history consists of first round exits, playoff misses and a single finals appearance. Another manager with those credentials doesn’t get the same credit. Holland’s similar, didn’t add much post-cap, legendary status extended invulnerability far too long.

Lamoriello left Jersey in shambles.

Not to say Chiarelli’s better or anything, I think ranking GM’s is kind of difficult to do with any degree of veracity though.

To take the names out of it, I’ll say that the series of decisions made in summers 2015-17 by the Edmonton Oilers will stand as some of the most wasteful, misguided and poorly-executed in the history of the salary cap NHL by hockey historians, once less people have less flesh in the game of storytelling.

But going forward, I don’t think Chiarelli will do much more damage than any run-of-the-mill, garden variety legacy hockey executive would.

The Devils under Lou made the Stanley Cup playoffs all but three times between 1988 and 2012, qualified for five Stanley Cup Finals (in 1995, 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2012) and won the Stanley Cup three times (in 1995, 2000 and 2003).

Chiarelli was hired on May 26, 2006, as GM of the Boston Bruins. 2011, Chiarelli won the Stanley Cup. 2015 fired. Record with Bruins playoffs missed 2 times

Professor Q

Wilde:
Wilde,

With Hart serving the Hellebuyck post

They just need to have Hart take over one year and the team become yet again a lucky lottery team, *then* blow up the next few seasons.

Wilde

Wilde,

With Hart serving the Hellebuyck post

Wilde

I have the Flyers as one of the smarter teams in the league too, wouldn’t be surprised to see them blow up Jets-style in the next few years

OriginalPouzar

NYI did have a great draft – well, at least the first two rounds (I can’t speak to the rest of their picks).

With that said, its not really that hard to pick Whalstrom and Dobson at 11 and 12 and Wilde is far from a sure thing (put the pick has high end potential which is what you want to look for at 41).

Wilde

flyfish1168: Lou has history and it is better than PC.

Lou’s salary cap NHL history consists of first round exits, playoff misses and a single finals appearance. Another manager with those credentials doesn’t get the same credit. Holland’s similar, didn’t add much post-cap, legendary status extended invulnerability far too long.

Lamoriello left Jersey in shambles.

Not to say Chiarelli’s better or anything, I think ranking GM’s is kind of difficult to do with any degree of veracity though.

To take the names out of it, I’ll say that the series of decisions made in summers 2015-17 by the Edmonton Oilers will stand as some of the most wasteful, misguided and poorly-executed in the history of the salary cap NHL by hockey historians, once less people have less flesh in the game of storytelling.

But going forward, I don’t think Chiarelli will do much more damage than any run-of-the-mill, garden variety legacy hockey executive would.

flyfish1168

Wilde: Unless Lou is intentionally tanking, he’s had the worst summer of all GM’s by a large margin.

Buoyed only by the possibility that Kovar is Dadanov, but if he is then you’ll have to pay full price unlike the actual Dadanov who is locked down for well below market value.

He signed and traded for a total of three players who are north of thirty and delivered below-replacement level performances last year.

Then lost one of his best defensemen to FA.

And gave four years of term to an AHL grinder.

Lou has history and it is better than PC.

Wilde

flyfish1168: Better GM then Chia– Kyle Dubas ???Islanders with Lou is better

Unless Lou is intentionally tanking, he’s had the worst summer of all GM’s by a large margin.

Buoyed only by the possibility that Kovar is Dadanov, but if he is then you’ll have to pay full price unlike the actual Dadanov who is locked down for well below market value.

He signed and traded for a total of three players who are north of thirty and delivered below-replacement level performances last year.

Then lost one of his best defensemen to FA.

And gave four years of term to an AHL grinder.

Professor Q

leadfarmer:
flyfish1168,

I’d wait to see how poorly Dubas’ 6 mil per year offers to Matthews and Marner go over before proclaiming him anything.

He’s no Tambellini, you say?

flyfish1168

leadfarmer:
flyfish1168,

I’d wait to see how poorly Dubas’ 6 mil per year offers to Matthews and Marner go over before proclaiming him anything.

LOL, and if he pulls it off he is the greatest

Wilde

JimmyV1965:

Like everything else associated with the Oilers, our perspective of the GM could possibly be clouded by an excruciating detailed analysis of virtually every decision he makes. There is so much discussion and so much analysis that it can be challenging to look at the big picture.

To me, Chiarelli’s reputation amongst other team’s fans honestly seems worse than his reputation amongst Oilers fans.

He has no defenders in other fanbases that I have read. Just the standard MSM press-pass, cartelesque insulation measures.

leadfarmer

flyfish1168,

I’d wait to see how poorly Dubas’ 6 mil per year offers to Matthews and Marner go over before proclaiming him anything.

flyfish1168

JimmyV1965:
Like everything else associated with the Oilers, our perspective of the GM could possibly be clouded by an excruciating detailed analysis of virtually every decision he makes. There is so much discussion and so much analysis that it can be challenging to look at the big picture.

I think we can acknowledge that every GM, even Stevie Y, makes mistakes. IMO Its all about the balance of decisions. Here’s a list of the the teams I think have a GM who isworse than Chia.Many people will disagree with the list, but I believe the GMs of these teams have either made bad decisions or have no vision of what they want their team to look like.

1 Florida
2 Carolina
3 Islanders
4 Detroit
5 Montreal
6 Ottawa
7 Buffalo
8 Minnesota (old GM)
9 Los Angeles
10 Colorado
11 Dallas
12 Calgary
13 Vancouver

Here’s a list of teams I think clearly have a better GM than Chia

1 Tampa
2 Toronto
3 Nashville
4 San Jose
5 St. Louis
6 Arizona

These are my lists so of course many people will disagree. I get that. Hell, I’m not even sure I like Chia. What I do know is this team was run by the most inept, bungling group of blowhards in the NHL for more than a decade. The new group is a breath of fresh air for me. As an Oiler fan I have also been conditioned to accept gross mismanagement as standard operating procedure. As a result, even a mediocre GM can look good.

Better GM then Chia – Kyle Dubas ??? Islanders with Lou is better

JimmyV1965

Like everything else associated with the Oilers, our perspective of the GM could possibly be clouded by an excruciating detailed analysis of virtually every decision he makes. There is so much discussion and so much analysis that it can be challenging to look at the big picture.

I think we can acknowledge that every GM, even Stevie Y, makes mistakes. IMO Its all about the balance of decisions. Here’s a list of the the teams I think have a GM who is worse than Chia. Many people will disagree with the list, but I believe the GMs of these teams have either made bad decisions or have no vision of what they want their team to look like.

1 Florida
2 Carolina
3 Islanders
4 Detroit
5 Montreal
6 Ottawa
7 Buffalo
8 Minnesota (old GM)
9 Los Angeles
10 Colorado
11 Dallas
12 Calgary
13 Vancouver

Here’s a list of teams I think clearly have a better GM than Chia

1 Tampa
2 Toronto
3 Nashville
4 San Jose
5 St. Louis
6 Arizona

These are my lists so of course many people will disagree. I get that. Hell, I’m not even sure I like Chia. What I do know is this team was run by the most inept, bungling group of blowhards in the NHL for more than a decade. The new group is a breath of fresh air for me. As an Oiler fan I have also been conditioned to accept gross mismanagement as standard operating procedure. As a result, even a mediocre GM can look good.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I am saying I am hopeful that Yamamoto or Puljijarvi (or maybe even Aberg) will win a top 6 job in camp on merit which could/should allow Rieder to play on the 3rd line where his game is better suited.

OK I guess what I am saying the two right wing spots are for JP and Rieder to lose in that they bring a modecum of defense along with their offense. In hockey like in pool it is as much in what you give away as much as it is in what you make. The two afore mentioned players bring experience which is why I believe it should be their jobs to lose. We probably want the same thing just the approach is different. I also believe that there should be much less experimentation with lines so as to get some chemistry built before the season starts!

Professor Q

Richard S.S.:
Georges,

When fairly comparing the Teams that Crosby and McDavid joined when entering league, include in the comparison of how good the Teams were at the time.There was as I recall a marked difference.Pittsburgh had a good NHL Team, while Edmonton comparably had the equivalent of a good AHL Team.

Imagine if McDavid had the equivalent of a Lemieux, LeClair, Recchi, Gonchar, Fleury, and Palffy in his rookie season?

It’d be as if Gretzky and a few other ’80s and ’90s stars (Weight, Pronger – sorry…, Oates, Peca, etc.) had remained with Edmonton and taught McDavid experience and skills both on and off the ice.

Georges

v4ance:
Georges,

To me, I still believe most of the talent in 2016 COULD have organically become better just with age.We all knew Hall was an outscorer.McDavid was not quite supernova after half a season lost to injury but the signs of his generational talent were there.Drai had just completed half a season riding with Hall and looked to be on the cusp of justifying his draft pedigree as a top 4 pick.

To me the error was the vision of how a GM should construct his team.Chiarelli went and looked at constructing a roster type that hadn’t won since the LA Kings in 2014.If you compare the 2016 Oilers to the 2014 Kings or the 2016 Penguins, I felt the team was closer in construction to being like the Penguins.Moving to be the next Kings/Bruins style team required a radical revamp of the players which proved to be less optimal than staying the course and following the Pitt model(imho).

“Chiarelli went and looked at constructing a roster type that hadn’t won since the LA Kings in 2014.”

WSH was a heavy team. When I looked at this in February, they were the heaviest team in the league after adjusting for TOI. Along the way, they beat the following teams (with their weight ranking in brackets based on what I saw back then).

CBJ (25)
PIT (27)
TBL (31)
VGK (19)

WSH didn’t play a Corsi focused game like LAK. But both of them were heavy teams (I’m honestly assuming with LAK back in 2014; haven’t run numbers). I think the heavy part is usually the point of comparison with PC’s Oilers.

As for chasing the PIT model, yes, we were there in 15-16. But the HC wasn’t. You should go have a look at some of the things McLellan said about his roster as 15-16 wound down. He wasn’t down for let’s give this group one more shot. I agree that roster had potential, especially given that another team and another HC found a Hart season in Hall and another team won 2 Cups with Schultz playing significant minutes. When you say it’s an error of vision on the GM’s part, I actually agree with you.

He should’ve looked a little closer at his HC.

rickithebear

Georges:
GAA is a per 60 rate.
teams do not play the same minutes in a 82 gm season.
An accurate measure would be
(Gf/(TM Total TOI/60)/SSN GA

You maybe to young to under stand Cheeky bastard is like a wink.

It was about a cup winnable offence.
With a cup winnable Defence in 16-17

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: While I love your enthusiasm you are saying that playing one of Yamamotoor one of the other yet unproven players on the top two lines is preferred deployment over using Reider. Lucic startinng at third line left wing with second pp unit until he gets his confidence back seems to be a no brainer. It will keep the fans off his back and allow him time to get his game back. Lucic is a class act and getting his game back in a third line role seems prudent IMO!

I am saying I am hopeful that Yamamoto or Puljijarvi (or maybe even Aberg) will win a top 6 job in camp on merit which could/should allow Rieder to play on the 3rd line where his game is better suited.

Richard S.S.

Georges,

When fairly comparing the Teams that Crosby and McDavid joined when entering league, include in the comparison of how good the Teams were at the time. There was as I recall a marked difference. Pittsburgh had a good NHL Team, while Edmonton comparably had the equivalent of a good AHL Team.

flyfish1168

leadfarmer:
Accidentally put in yesterdays thread
I think we are going to regret not signing Nurse to a long term deal. Salary caps have been growing a lot faster than available talent, especially that few good players actually make it to free agency anymore. This will make teams throw lots of money at not so good players, which has really taken off this offseason, which will also raise comparable for other players. Also the cost of poaching other players is pretty low 1,2,3 rd round picks for an 8 mil contracts. I think some of these teams that have trouble attracting talent but want to take the next step are going to start trying to get talent the only way they can outside of the draft, by poaching it from other teams.

That is when we Sekera, Russell and Lucic limited movement will need to be exercised so we can pay for Nurse.

rickithebear

RIP Ray Emery’s!

Professor Q

theWaxCollector:
Not sure if it’s been mentioned yet, but London has signed Adam Boqvist and he’ll play during the 2018-19 season.

What does this mean for Bouchard and his development if sent back?

It was mentioned the week before last (he signed on July 5th). It won’t likely affect Bouchard’s development that much, although it actually could be a positive influence on both players.

Both players tend to play both the LD and RD sides interchangeably throughout the game, so they could even pair up for a period or two or for special circumstances (PP, PK, late-game, OT, etc.). Even the minor playing time influence shouldn’t be that egregious, if they play 1RD and 2RD respectively.

If London can convince Brady Tkachuk to sign as well, as I believe he had made it clear or hinted at wanting to do the NCAA route to separate himself from his brother, then the rebuilding stage might actually only last one season (which would be last season).

leadfarmer

Accidentally put in yesterdays thread
I think we are going to regret not signing Nurse to a long term deal. Salary caps have been growing a lot faster than available talent, especially that few good players actually make it to free agency anymore. This will make teams throw lots of money at not so good players, which has really taken off this offseason, which will also raise comparable for other players. Also the cost of poaching other players is pretty low 1,2,3 rd round picks for an 8 mil contracts. I think some of these teams that have trouble attracting talent but want to take the next step are going to start trying to get talent the only way they can outside of the draft, by poaching it from other teams.

v4ance

Georges,

To me, I still believe most of the talent in 2016 COULD have organically become better just with age. We all knew Hall was an outscorer. McDavid was not quite supernova after half a season lost to injury but the signs of his generational talent were there. Drai had just completed half a season riding with Hall and looked to be on the cusp of justifying his draft pedigree as a top 4 pick.

To me the error was the vision of how a GM should construct his team. Chiarelli went and looked at constructing a roster type that hadn’t won since the LA Kings in 2014. If you compare the 2016 Oilers to the 2014 Kings or the 2016 Penguins, I felt the team was closer in construction to being like the Penguins. Moving to be the next Kings/Bruins style team required a radical revamp of the players which proved to be less optimal than staying the course and following the Pitt model(imho).

Georges

rickithebear: Let’s look at season avg GAA (per 60 rate) from Hockey Reference.
01-02, (198/82)/2.51 = 96.2%
02-03, (189/82)/2.54 = 90.7%
03-04, (190/82)/2.46 = 94.2%
05-06, (243/82)/2.92 = 101.5%
06-07, (267/82)/2.77 = 117.5%
07-08, (240/82)/2.61 = 112.1%
08-09, (258/82)/2.73 = 115.3%

Edmonton’s 2 full seasons with Mcdavid
16-17 (243/82)/2.59 = 114.4%
17-18 (229/82)/2.78 = 100.5%

George you misleading “cheeky bastard”

You have to have a baseline to measure too.

I want a HD driven system for GA.
You guys are chasing GF.
Turns out HD sys may be the answer to both.
Young Crosby/Malkin level offence without hall in 16-17.

I keep saying those 2 bullshit calls likely cost the oilers a cup.

Ricki, my point was about the feared forward group of 15-16.

But I did include Crosby’s years to the Cup instead of just including his first season. Which sort of extended my point. And, you’re right, I didn’t reference a baseline. So, let’s do it.

Not sure about your hockey reference numbers. Let’s use average GF/GP from nhl.com.

EDM

Season, GF/GP, (GF/GP)/LeagueAvg.

10-11, 2.33, .85
11-12, 2.52, .95
12-13, 2.56, .97
13-14, 2.43, .91
14-15, 2.35, .88
15,16, 2.43, .91
16,17, 2.96, 1.09
17-18, 2.79, .95

PIT

Season, GF/GP, (GF/GP)/LeagueAvg.

01-02, 2.41, .92
02-03, 2.30, .87
03-04, 2.32, .90
05-06, 2.96, .98
06-07, 3.26,1.13
07-08, 2.93,1.08
08-09, 3.15,1.10

1. My original point was that offense didn’t change much for CMD’s first team and that it did for Crosby’s first team. What do you think?

2. Your point, I think, is that CMD’s two full seasons compare favorably with Crosby and Malkin’s first two seasons. I like year 1. What do you think about year 2? We had the 5th best PP last season. Malkin, year 1, PIT’s PP was also 5th best. Malkin’s year 2, PIT had the 4th best PP. As Pink would ask, what about us?

I’m not sure about your ratios. You have EDM at 100.5% last year but they ranked 20th on goals scored.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I agree that the best case scenario is for Milan to have a bounce-back season as a legit second line winger (including being able to make plays in transition). If that happens and one of the Jesse or Yamamoto emerge, things may start to look very very good.

I think most would put the odds on that happening well below 50%, however, I’m not adverse to allowing the possibility to emerge with some material time together through camp and early in the year – if its not working after 8-10 games, then move on but I think the potential it brings warrants a real shot.

I put zero stock in to Rieder and Leon playing together internationally – it means nothing to me as far as translating to NHL success and the NHL lineup – don’t mean to be rude here but I don’t think its means much at all.

Here is hoping that the young right wingers emerge, or at least one of them, as I believe Rieder is better served for the 3rd line than the 2nd line (and we may need him at 2LW if both Milan and Khaira aren’t able).

While I love your enthusiasm you are saying that playing one of Yamamoto or one of the other yet unproven players on the top two lines is preferred deployment over using Reider. Lucic startinng at third line left wing with second pp unit until he gets his confidence back seems to be a no brainer. It will keep the fans off his back and allow him time to get his game back. Lucic is a class act and getting his game back in a third line role seems prudent IMO!