Chest Fever

The NHL doesn’t make many trades from mid-July through the final days of September, so we’re in Death Valley for the next 10 weeks. How scarce is it to see a legit trade this time of year? The last deal to move the needle made between July 15 and August 1 came in 2016 when Ottawa sent Mika Zibanejad to the Rangers for Derick Brassard. There is some evidence we’ll see action in the coming days but for Oilers fans this fall may be about unproven wingers trying to forge their way. Again.

THE ATHLETIC

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

MAKING BETS

There are some massive bets to be made on this Oilers roster this fall and winter, I think we’ve reached a point where we can assume this is us. Here are, in order of balls, the biggest bets on the team.

  1. Ty Rattie. He probably gets first chance with Connor McDavid, and if he can hold the job we’ll be talking about him as the modern Blair MacDonald. You may recall MacDonald scored 46 goals in his only full season playing alongside Wayne Gretzky. I’m guessing Rattie scores 12-17 goals while holding the job with 97 for most but not all of the year.
  2. Mikko Koskinen. Edmonton hit the market with $6.35 million for four players (Koskinen, Gravel, Brodziak, Rieder) and the highest paid is the fellow with four games experience. Spending 39 percent of your entire free-agent budget on an unproven goalie has the chance to backfire. It reminds me of Whitey Herzog, another risk taker (baseball manager and GM): When things went well he looked like a genius, when they backfired it was front page news.
  3. Leon Draisaitl. He’s going to be asked to drive his own line, and despite some good numbers away from Connor McDavid (without 97: 2.01 5-on-5 per 60 scoring in 628 minutes, 50.42 Corsi for 5-on-5) Leon posted just 42 percent of the goal share. What’s more, beyond new arrival Tobias Rieder there are several candidates the team likes for the No. 2 line who may in fact be a drag on success. On the positive side, math suggests a couple of interesting names (wrote about it here) on the roster.
  4. Milan Lucic. A lot of talk surrounding his point total as a measure of quality, but he struggled during his 50-point season, too. One of the major pressure points of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the third line.
  5. Kailer Yamamoto. The collective inertia at right wing is good news for everyone at the position, with Yamamoto poised to grab a skill job should anyone falter. Can he endure the rigors of a long pro season? There’s a good chance we’ll find out by spring.

SCORING WINGER

I agree with the Oilers organization in regard to finding scoring wingers internally, mostly because their are good candidates for the job. Ty Rattie scored well in a small sample size, Kailer Yamamoto is potentially big video dynamite in a small package and Jesse Puljujarvi has all the tools to be a locomotive on skates. You know, if this were a building team, if this were Connor McDavid’s rookie season, we might even be excited about it. As it is, impatience rules the world and that’s understandable.

One year ago, we were looking at possible right wingers for the 2017-18 club and discussing Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Strome, Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen and Ty Rattie.

This summer, it’s Ty Rattie, Tobias Rieder, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Pontus Aberg, Zack Kassian. Losing Leon from the depth chart is a big deal, but betting on two first-round selections, a veteran like Rieder and a swath of 14 games that included 129 minutes with Connor McDavid (and a 13-7 goal differential 5-on-5) represents an investment and a leap of faith. I believe in both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, looks like the Edmonton Oilers do as well. That’s the takeaway from this summer.

Is there another shoe to drop?

The last July trade made by the Oilers came in 2015 (Liam Coughlin for Anders Nilsson) and the last big one took place in 2013 (Magnus Paajarvi and a second-round pick for David Perron). There are areas where the club could improve but the selection of Evan Bouchard, the decision to go all-in on youth at right wing, the conclusion that playing Milan Lucic in Edmonton is better than giving up another big piece of the future as sweetener, all seem to have conspired to make this a quiet summer. I suggested keeping the powder dry was the best route in this situation. It appears to have also been the assessment of management. A trade this summer could happen, but bleeding the future is apparently no longer an option. That’s a good decision, now it’s up to the kids.

50-MAN JULY 13, 2016

CURRENT 50-MAN

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139 Responses to "Chest Fever"

  1. Bag of Pucks says:

    One of the things we should be able to agree on is that Chiarelli has been proactive in bringing depth into the organization to facilitate competition for roster spots and icetime at every position.

    Yamamoto and Pulijarvi should have the inside track in the Top 6 based on pedigree but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they started the season with Rattie and Aberg having won those battles.

    That is progress and is a long way removed from breaking camp with unproven youngsters like Gagner, Paajarvi, Schultz, etc. and 100% needing those players to elevate.

    Personally I would love to see Aberg beat out Yamamoto because that would be as sure an indication as any of depth in this organization.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, the dog days of summer are among us and the roster is pretty much set.

    Only a couple of battles at camp:

    Yamamoto vs. Rattie for the 1RW position (yes, not necessarily 1RW but I think Yamamoto makes the team if he can “win” the 1RW position

    Bouchard vs. and 14th forward – I think its reasonable to believe that Bouchard will break camp with the team and we will carry 8 d-men through the eastern road trip (Gravel plus Bouchard).

    Subject to injuries, Marody, Lowe, Malone and, possibly, Yamamoto will be injury call-ups.

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    Milan Lucic. A lot of talk surrounding his point total as a measure of quality, but he struggled during his 50-point season, too. One of the major pressure points of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the third line.

    An even bigger pressure point of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the press box.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    They are definitely “bets” but, imagine if:

    1) Yamamto can establish himself as a true winger for McDavid and Puljijarvi can establish himself as a true winger for Drai (or vice versa); and

    2) Benning can establish himself as a true 2RD

    If these things can happen, we will be rolling.

    I think a couple keys to the season are:

    1) Jesse establishing himself as a top 6 RW that can produce
    2) Benning establishing himself as a legit 2RD

  5. Bag of Pucks says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Milan Lucic. A lot of talk surrounding his point total as a measure of quality, but he struggled during his 50-point season, too. One of the major pressure points of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the third line.

    An even bigger pressure point of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the press box.

    If I’m TMac, I bring Steve McIntyre out of retirement to deliver that news.

  6. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    They are definitely “bets” but, imagine if:

    1) Yamamto can establish himself as a true winger for McDavid and Puljijarvi can establish himself as a true winger for Drai (or vice versa); and

    2) Benning can establish himself as a true 2RD

    If these things can happen, we will be rolling.

    I think a couple keys to the season are:

    1) Jesse establishing himself as a top 6 RW that can produce
    2) Benning establishing himself as a legit 2RD

    In a perfect world, you’d like to see Bear pass both Benning and Russell on the depth chart based purely on his offensive upside. On a legit contender, players like Benning and Russell should be fighting for 3rd pairing mins.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leon has already shown to be able to drive offence when away from McDavid but the issue is he’s given up too much in that time and the goal share is negative. We need our 2nd line to run a positive goal share, in particular when it includes an $8.5M man

    From a quick look, Leon’s most common line mates when not with McDavid (and Maroon) were Strome, Lucic, Caggulia, Cammy (and the Strome minutes were 1st half when he was struggling to find his way).

    Here is hoping he can get Puljijarvi and a combo of Reider and Khaira – I am confident that type of line can have a positive goal share.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    The wild card for the 2nd line (or even first line or simply middle 6) could be Pontus Aberg – he scored just at 2 P/60 at evens while in Edmonton – he looks to be a quicker, faster and more skilled Caggulia to me and, if given a good opportunity, may be able to produce in the top 6.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Milan Lucic. A lot of talk surrounding his point total as a measure of quality, but he struggled during his 50-point season, too. One of the major pressure points of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the third line.

    An even bigger pressure point of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the press box.

    I don’t think that happens, to be honest. Lucic doesn’t get hurt much, either.

  10. flyfish1168 says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Milan Lucic. A lot of talk surrounding his point total as a measure of quality, but he struggled during his 50-point season, too. One of the major pressure points of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the third line.

    An even bigger pressure point of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the press box.

    Milan will start and get his share of top 6 minutes. He is our only proven top 6 power forward, unfortunately. He may prove everyone wrong.

  11. Oil2Oilers says:

    “One of the major pressure points of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the third line”

    McLellan and Chiarelli’s careers could pivot on their willingness to make this decision early. Waiting through October to Mid November could be to late for the season and their careers.

    The third line is the correct place of Lucic. Higher up in the order he is a drag on wining. A Lucic-Strome-Yammamoto/Aberg third line is very expensive and unlikely dominant, but is not a drag on winning.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    “The last July trade made by the Oilers came in 2015 (Liam Coughlin for Anders Nilsson) and the last big one took place in 2013 (Magnus Paajarvi and a second-round pick for David Perron). There are areas where the club could improve but the selection of Evan Bouchard, the decision to go all-in on youth at right wing, the conclusion that playing Milan Lucic in Edmonton is better than giving up another big piece of the future as sweetener, all seem to have conspired to make this a quiet summer. I suggested keeping the powder dry was the best route in this situation. It appears to have also been the assessment of management. A trade this summer could happen, but bleeding the future is apparently no longer an option. That’s a good decision, now it’s up to the kids.”

    I could not agree more – Yes, divesting of the Lucic contract remains on the “to do list” but I believe that management needs to be patient and wait for a reasonable deal. Giving up too much value in order to get a team to take the contract does not make sense at a point where the prospect pool is just starting to gain some depth and potential. Lets keep building, be patient and wait for the opportunities to make smart moves.

  13. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “The last July trade made by the Oilers came in 2015 (Liam Coughlin for Anders Nilsson) and the last big one took place in 2013 (Magnus Paajarvi and a second-round pick for David Perron).

    What a blockhead trade that was.

    MacT spends some of his most valuable assets on a winger when the D-core was just rotten.

  14. Nix says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The wild card for the 2nd line (or even first line or simply middle 6) could be Pontus Aberg – he scored just at 2 P/60 at evens while in Edmonton – he looks to be a quicker, faster and more skilled Caggulia to me and, if given a good opportunity, may be able to produce in the top 6.

    I think the big German could do a lot worse than two quick, decently skilled sparkplugs in Rieder- -Aberg. Would very much like to see this line.
    Not to pile on Lucic but past the contract and production, his deployment is an issue. Dont like him at 2 or 3LW. It gums up the works and is a problem when just slotting him has a large ‘pro with potential hurt feelings so we have to kid gloves this’ factor.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot: What a blockhead trade that was.

    MacT spends some of his most valuable assets on a winger when the D-core was just rotten.

    It actually worked out pretty well five years on. Perron has been mostly productive while Magnus Paajarvi has struggled to stay in the league. Ivan Barbashev was the draft pick and he’s now in the NHL but will need to deliver more offense (and I’m sure he will). If you judge a deal by what happens in the five years after, MacT won that trade. The problem is he and PC traded all their other picks, too.

  16. Jethro Tull says:

    Bank Shot: What a blockhead trade that was.

    MacT spends some of his most valuable assets on a winger when the D-core was just rotten.

    That was a good trade. If MPS, Liam Coughlin and a second rounder count amongst your most valuable assets, then it doesn’t matter what you trade them for.

  17. Richard S.S. says:

    Ty Rattie, Kaiser Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Drake Caggiula and Pontus Aberg can all play on Connor McDavid’s RW well enough to make it effective. They are good enough talents in their own rights, but Connor McDavid just makes people better. I suspect talent rises to the occasion. I think it takes all of Training Camp, all of Pre-Season and at least a dozen Regular Season games before the best RW option(s) appear. But then the RW best options for this Team are more significant than finding the best player for McDavid.

  18. Oil2Oilers says:

    Wilde:
    Early returns:

    Aberg good, Caggiula bad.

    You’re all thrilled with my eye-opening, watershed analysis, yeah?

    If Aberg wins a spot on the team, and by talent level it appears he should, where does Caggiula fit in the line up? 13th-14th forward?

  19. OilClog says:

    Aberg is only here to provide some sideburns

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – If Kailer and Pool aren’t ready for top-6 minutes with McD or Drai, I applaud Chia for having worst case senario mediocre NHL wingers who can play there: Tobias, Aberg, Rattie, etc.

    – If the chosen ones aren’t ready, these older guys are there as a base-line IMO

    – Despite all the hate for Lucic, he was 49th LW in terms of points last year. Give him 10 more points and his production is 1st line again.

    – Between RNH and Lucic, worst case you have 2 wingers who play in top-2 lines.

    – All of the “bets” and redundancie built in: that’s hockey. Just need one winger, any winger to have a career year, and this team will be very good.

    – I hope its just me me but I read every post about the roster, as a veiled/overt shot against Chia.

    – If our back-up pays a very good 30 games next year, he will still have been paid too much.

    – If Lucic scores 45-50, there will still be issues with him.

    – Rattie will only be the AHL’er who was given a shot because there was no more room.

    – Russell as the LD/RD tool-box will still be too expensive.

    – If this team does well it will be despite itself, and yeah but, and what could have been

  21. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Ty Rattie, Kaiser Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Drake Caggiula and Pontus Aberg can all play on Connor McDavid’s RW well enough to make it effective. They are good enough talents in their own rights, but Connor McDavid just makes people better.I suspect talent rises to the occasion.I think it takes all of Training Camp, all ofPre-Season and at least a dozen Regular Season games before the best RW option(s) appear.But then the RW best options for this Team are more significant than finding the best player for McDavid.

    Caggiula/McDavid. In 146 minutes together, they have a 39.5 Corsi for 5×5, that’s a criminal number with 97 on the ice and a substantial amount of time together. The weird thing about it? McDavid is 4.10 5-on-5 points per 60 with Caggiula, Caggiula 2.05 with 97.

    Goal share is 45.45%. Not good.

  22. Oil2Oilers says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: If this team does well it will be despite itself, and yeah but, and what could have been

    As fans of this team our pessimism and despair is well founded. Don’t fret a winning record by Halloween and irrational exuberance and forgiveness of past management sins will be sung from the roof tops yet again.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – I hope its just meme but I read every post about the roster, as a veiled/overt shot against Chia.

    As he is the one most responsible for it, I think your read is correct. We’ve had this conversation before, and again I say Chiarelli must own the mistakes made since arrival. We can’t have a conversation without including all information, Kinger. Part of that involves a devastating loss of talent via trades made by Peter Chiarelli. It is there, it is evident, it is real.

  24. Richard S.S. says:

    Leon Draisaitl has played with whoever’s left more often than playing with the best option, so there is some needless concern about his ability to drive a line – nonsense – Leon’s just fine. I believe Leon has Milan Lucic on his LW more often than not this coming Season. They have had some success together and it’s important to turn Milan back around, more important than finding the best option. Strangely enough, Milan might be Leon’s best option.

    Tobias Rieder has played with Leon Draisaitl on the German Team in International/World Cup play. They have a comfort level with each other and a level of success and trust that they might not have with others. I believe they will get an extended opportunity to be successful. Is this the best RW for Leon Draisaitl or the best option for the Team.

  25. Professor Q says:

    OilClog:
    Aberg is only here to provide some sideburns

    That’s it! We’re trading Åberg for Right Side Brent Burns.

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: As he is the one most responsible for it, I think your read is correct. We’ve had this conversation before, and again I say Chiarelli must own the mistakes made since arrival. We can’t have a conversation without including all information, Kinger. Part of that involves a devastating loss of talent via trades made by Peter Chiarelli. It is there, it is evident, it is real.

    – Sure. And if/when they win a cup with Chia, it will be despite the “devestating loss of talent”.

    – And if/when Chia gets fired and they win a cup, it will be because Chia is gone.

    – Your narrative is that this team will never be as good at it could of becasue Chia, regardles

    – I get it, it’s just going to take away from if/when they win a Cup it will be: yeah but…IMO

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: As he is the one most responsible for it, I think your read is correct. We’ve had this conversation before, and again I say Chiarelli must own the mistakes made since arrival. We can’t have a conversation without including all information, Kinger. Part of that involves a devastating loss of talent via trades made by Peter Chiarelli. It is there, it is evident, it is real.

    My issue with this is the obsessive focus on the Hall and Reinhart trades at the expense of all of the smaller smart moves the GM has made.

    I’ve said it before but the gauge should be how the overall portfolio is managed vs. focusing on one or two isolated transactions. The 50 man list and amateur procurement process has been demonstrably better imo.

    LT, I also don’t understand your reluctance to parse the Reinhart and Hall trades in their proper context, which was Katz wanting the D situation fixed ASAP with the new building opening. These pressures were there. They were evident. They were real.

    Ironically, your happiness over Chiarelli’s quiet summer this year may largely be due to the fact that the GM is finally operating with less owner interference. Though the Red Wine Summits are always lurking…

  28. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks: My issue with this is the obsessive focus on the Hall and Reinhart trades at the expense of all of the smaller smart moves the GM has made.

    I’ve said it before but the gauge should be how the overall portfolio is managed vs. focusing on one or two isolated transactions. The 50 man list and amateur procurement process has been demonstrably better imo.

    LT, I also don’t understand your reluctance to parse the Reinhart and Hall trades in their proper context, which was Katz wanting the D situation fixed ASAP with the new building opening. These pressures were there. They were evident. They were real.

    – I’m not picking on LT, as its persvasive on this blog

    – Chia has made this team demonstrably weaker, becasue Griff, Hall and Eberle full-stop. That is the extent of the analysis and the consenus. Plus he has done a terrible job with the cap.

    – If/when we win a cup it will be despite those awful moves by an awful GM, and we can never never forget that Hall Eberle were traded away and Griff cost two picks, and the over-pays…

    * whle LT is happy this has been a “quiet” summer, the belief and prediction (and much of the community), was that a desperate poor GM would do more “damage” as he’s poor, and there would be futher “bleeding of talent”.

    – Last year he was dismissed as being poor, becasue he didn’t load up in the off-season. This year, having not done so, if the team doesn’t perform, he will be disparaged. And if they do well, it’s going to be a “never forget”

    – Nothing will save Chia from most of this group IMO. Even if he wins, its despite him

  29. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    They are definitely “bets” but, imagine if:

    1) Yamamto can establish himself as a true winger for McDavid and Puljijarvi can establish himself as a true winger for Drai (or vice versa); and

    2) Benning can establish himself as a true 2RD

    If these things can happen, we will be rolling.

    I think a couple keys to the season are:

    1) Jesse establishing himself as a top 6 RW that can produce
    2) Benning establishing himself as a legit 2RD

    Your list of ifs is why this team is destined for another mediocre season,there are too many of them. I do think JP and Benning are good bets, but with cap hell restricting having a top winger for Drai, the team won’t be able to manufacture enough goals. Relying on so many young inexperienced players is not a recipe for success.

  30. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Sure.And if/when theywin a cup with Chia, it will be despite the “devestating loss of talent”.

    – And if/when Chia gets fired and they win a cup, it will be because Chia is gone.

    – Your narrative is that this team will never be as good at it could of becasue Chia, regardles

    – I get it, it’s just going to take away from if/when they win a Cup it will be: yeah but…IMO

    Wildly untrue. Chiarelli could make up for the loss of the Reinhart trade, the Hall trade AND the Eberle trade by his own hand. I would give him credit. In fact, he signed Matt Benning for not a lot and Benning is a productive player. Does that make up for the second-round pick in the Reinhart trade? I think you can make the case.

    I honestly believe that I’ve been fair with Chiarelli. Don’t expect you to agree, but can say lots of the feedback to this blog involves it’s author being far too easy on him. It’s a difficult situation but if PC finds the missing pieces we’d have to give him credit. Hopefully this happens.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    LT, I also don’t understand your reluctance to parse the Reinhart and Hall trades in their proper context, which was Katz wanting the D situation fixed ASAP with the new building opening. These pressures were there. They were evident. They were real.

    Meh. Chiarelli is the general manager, the buck stops there. I understand the difficult in dealing with interfering owners, have recommended the Jim Devellano book many times. It’s still PC’s responsibility to help the team, not hurt. He made bad trades, there’s no reasonable way to work off that hook.

  32. Bank Shot says:

    Jethro Tull: That was a good trade. If MPS, Liam Coughlin and a second rounder count amongst your most valuable assets, then it doesn’t matter what you trade them for.

    MPS was a top ten pick. He still had some value around the league at that point.

    He should have been looking to shore up the defence. MacT didn’t even know what the weaknesses were on his own team.

    He couldn’t even address team needs. The fact that this was his best trade by a mile(That wasn’t dumping for picks) really shows how far he put this team in a hole.

  33. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The GM is paid to put a winner on the ice. If the Oil turn the corner and start winning consistently, the individual moves start to fade in importance and the collective roster becomes the ultimate measure imo.

    But I’m also not a person that tends to live in the past. Hall and the ‘Barzal’ pick is gone. It is what is. But so are the picks for Talbot, and the rhetoric is overwhelmingly negative on the Reinhart trade and largely crickets on the Talbot deal. That seems unbalanced to me.

    If Tambellini simply drafts Larsson or if Poile bites on RNH for Seth Jones, it’s amazing how different the verbal is on Chiarelli. That’s how razor thin these margins are. But the good news is we’re past the point of Ben Scrivens having to save 10 touchdowns worth of shots to win a hockey game.

  34. Wonder Llama says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    They are definitely “bets” but, imagine if:

    1) Yamamto can establish himself as a true winger for McDavid and Puljijarvi can establish himself as a true winger for Drai (or vice versa); and

    2) Benning can establish himself as a true 2RD

    If these things can happen, we will be rolling.

    I think a couple keys to the season are:

    1) Jesse establishing himself as a top 6 RW that can produce
    2) Benning establishing himself as a legit 2RD

    I agree the Benning question is hugely important (and kind of flying under the radar as a discussion topic).

    The Oilers have four solid, llegitimate defensemen but handedness has them llisting to port. If Benning takes another step Russell can play 3rd pair and none of Sekera/Nurse/Klefbom have to play the right side. I think you’re right this would have a significant impact.

    I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that there is a material difference in how you and I spell Puljujarvi. (You and I remember Budapest very differently).

  35. pts2pndr says:

    McDavid line requires either a puck retrieval and or shooter to aquire line balance. Reider is a right wing,NHL calibre that best fits the needs of this line. Yes he is a left shot but that fact is an advantage in the offensive zone ie Draisaital. He is a puck retriever and has the tools to fill in until Maksimov is ready. I propose the best deployment of the current forwards as follows
    Nuge McDavid Reider
    Khaira Drai JP
    Lucic Strome Kassian
    Fourth line made up of the players showing best out of training camp. Still a number of players to make up a high energy, low minutes fourth line,possibly even Mcleod. The inexperienced younger players ie Yamamoto should be cutting their teeth here with occasional time further up the lineup when they are on a roll. Less pressure on the kids while they are gaining NHL experience.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – Nothing will save Chia from most of this group IMO.Even if he wins, its despite him

    Nonsense. I’ve given credit this summer for a strong draft and impressive free agent moves. I can’t write love letters to Chiarelli every morning, Kinger. They would be lies. His record in Edmonton is poor enough for him to have been fired long before now. That is a fact.

    If he recovers I will give him credit. I refuse to overlook his trading record since 2015. It is part of the story.

  37. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: Nonsense. I’ve given credit this summer for a strong draft and impressive free agent moves. I can’t write love letters to Chiarelli every morning, Kinger. They would be lies. His record in Edmonton is poor enough for him to have been fired long before now. That is a fact.

    If he recovers I will give him credit. I refuse to overlook his trading record since 2015. It is part of the story.

    – OK – deal: If Larsson goes beast mode like 2 years ago in playoffs again, when you “forgave” the Hall trade, and if/when the team looks a lot better than when Hall and Eberle are on it, and we have wingers who don’t go invisible in playoffs like those two and cost a lot less, I will gently remind you of this exchange. You won’t be allowed to say “yeah but”…

    – I think your too categoric, but I appreciate you’ve given yourself the right to change your mind, based on results: results matter most!

    – And if this team tanks this year again, I will be touting time for Chia to go: deal?

  38. Bank Shot says:

    Lowetide: It actually worked out pretty well five years on. Perron has been mostly productive while Magnus Paajarvi has struggled to stay in the league. Ivan Barbashev was the draft pick and he’s now in the NHL but will need to deliver more offense (and I’m sure he will). If you judge a deal by what happens in the five years after, MacT won that trade. The problem is he and PC traded all their other picks, too.

    In terms of pure value he won the trade. In terms of addressing team needs that move was way off the rails.

    MacT gave up two of the team’s better assets for a winger while he shopped the bargain bin for cast off defencemen and left Chiarelli with scorched earth when he arrived.

    It’s scary that guys like Mact and Howson are still in this organization.

    Chiarelli has faults for sure, but we can tell by his decision making that he can accurately assess his team’s shortcomings and tries to achieve balance.

  39. BONE207 says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Milan Lucic. A lot of talk surrounding his point total as a measure of quality, but he struggled during his 50-point season, too. One of the major pressure points of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the third line.

    An even bigger pressure point of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the press box.

    An even bigger pressure point of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move to the unemployment line…😆

  40. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – OK – deal: If Larsson goes beast mode like 2 years ago in playoffs again, when you “forgave” the Hall trade, and if/when the team looks a lot better than when Hall and Eberle are on it, and we have wingers who don’t go invisible in playoffs like those two and cost a lot less,I will gently remind you of this exchange.You won’t be allowed to say “yeah but”…

    – I think your too categoric, but I appreciate you’ve given yourself the right to change your mind, based on results: results matter most!

    – And if this team tanks this year again, I will be touting time for Chia to go: deal?

    How about this: If Puljujarvi emerges as a player who can push the river, if Yamamoto emerges as equal or superior to Eberle, if Bouchard becomes the player the organization wanted Reinhart to be, I’ll give him credit for recovering from those early misguided trades.

    Note: I don’t think the Eberle trade was especially misguided, he was sending out two years of Eberle for what could be 5+ years of control over Strome. My quarrel with Chiarelli in regard to this trade had to do with his not using the extra cap room. Baffling then, baffling now.

  41. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bank Shot:
    Chiarelli has faults for sure, but we can tell by his decision making that he can accurately assess his team’s shortcomings and tries to achieve balance.

    – This is fair: the two picks for a D the org thought was ready for NHL made sense, and given the context even more so

    – Trading their best player non-CmD division, an oft-injured talented player to improve their RHD made sense (and signing 2 $900K college players with savings: Caggs and Benning)

    – Trading a $6MM winger, who was invisible in playoffs for a $3MM C made sense

    – Many think too much talent was bled, without acknowledging the fundamentals he was addressing.

    – I wish for Hall be got Karlsson. For Ebs we got Duchene. Instead of Griff, we got Hamilton

    – I’m more appreciative and nuanced with my evaluation of the realities that Chia has to navigate, rather than “GM made the trades full-stop”. I Think Nicholosn has been a god-send, becasue he knows how every deal went down: that’s been his gift IMO.

    – I bet this team wins 2 Cups next 8 years, and is comptetive playoff team for a decade.

    – i wish we could just evaluate this team today, without it always being couched in what could have been, or “lest we forget”.

  42. Davesshop says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The Reinhardt tragedy has gone on long enough. Lowetide has been more than fair about Chiarelli and his moves. I do not comment often but have been here from the very beginning. Daily. I mentioned shortly after the draft the shock on Chiarelli’s face the moment the trade was announced at the draft. He had no say in it. Clearly. That and what he had to do in trading Hall for the best rd available were and are firing offences. If it was all on him he would not be here now. Instead he has a mandate to repair and proceed. For how much longer we will see. I hope he is here when they win.

  43. Georges says:

    Why do you have Rieder on the left?

    The stats sites say Rieder is C/R. nhl.com says Rieder is R.

    Also, Aberg as 2RW? Isn’t he the guy McLellan said this about last year when he pulled him from the lineup after an unsuccessful stint on CMD’s line:

    “”He came out for reasons beyond his play . . . it’s serious. The coaching staff isn’t pleased, the organization isn’t pleased and I’m sure his teammates aren’t pleased.”

    He got hot for 3 games after they put him back in the lineup with Drai, but he was healthy scratched by the end of the season.

  44. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – Nothing will save Chia from most of this group IMO.Even if he wins, its despite him

    This is a laughable statement. Please refer yourself to last summer’s posts.

    Go through the July posts and ctrl+f Hall in the comments. Do the same for Barzal.

    If Talbot ran .930 this past year, you’d get shredded for bringing up a ‘what could have been’ hypothetical.

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide His record in Edmonton is poor enough for him to have been fired long before now. That is a fact.

    Are you of the opinion that the Hall trade on its own is a fireable offense?

  46. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde:
    If Talbot ran .930 this past year, you’d get shredded for bringing up a ‘what could have been’ hypothetical.

    – Do you mean if Talbot was .930 we would still be saying “yeah but Hall”?

    – Or if Talbot be .930, we would forgive Chia for his trespasses?

  47. jp says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – OK – deal: If Larsson goes beast mode like 2 years ago in playoffs again, when you “forgave” the Hall trade, and if/when the team looks a lot better than when Hall and Eberle are on it, and we have wingers who don’t go invisible in playoffs like those two and cost a lot less,I will gently remind you of this exchange.You won’t be allowed to say “yeah but”…

    Could I remind you that Taylor Hall was traded before he had a chance to go invisible in the playoffs for the Oilers?

    A player who was over a PPG in his first playoff appearance this year, and won back to back OHL/MCup championships and MCup MVPs.

    You can make the argument that Eberle may not be a playoff performer (time will tell if 2017 was real or just a bad run), but I don’t see any basis for concluding the same about Hall.

  48. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Do you mean if Talbot was .930 we would still be saying “yeah but Hall”?

    – Or if Talbot be .930, we would forgive Chia for his trespasses?

    No, I’m saying if Talbot had covered for a flawed roster, none of what you’re saying the group would talk about would be talked about.

    Here is the RE post for Peter Chiarelli last summer, after a winning season:

    https://lowetide.ca/2017/06/12/re-16-17-peter-chiareli-fake-plastic-trees/

    Your projection of the reaction to the Oilers winning a cup or having success isn’t grounded in reality at all.

    The overwhelming majority of the group forgave him when the team wins, and they’ll do it again. In fact, there was and probably will be more strongly worded conjecture on your side of the argument than from the other, if we’re to use the past to predict the future.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Georges:
    Why do you have Rieder on the left?

    The stats sites say Rieder is C/R. nhl.com says Rieder is R.

    Also, Aberg as 2RW? Isn’t he the guy McLellan said this about last year when he pulled him from the lineup after an unsuccessful stint on CMD’s line:

    “”He came out for reasons beyond his play. . . it’s serious. The coaching staff isn’t pleased, the organization isn’t pleased and I’m sure his teammates aren’t pleased.”

    He got hot for 3 games after they put him back in the lineup with Drai, but he was healthy scratched by the end of the season.

    My 50-man list isn’t meant to appear as lines, I am trying to squeeze players in on a line. Aberg is technically a LW, but I try to use fewer lines and make it tight.

  50. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    And here is the 17-18 RE post for Chiarelli:

    https://lowetide.ca/2017/08/13/re-17-18-peter-chiarelli-danny-says/

    Here’s some nameless excerpts from the first 20 comments:

    “I believe in PC. I truly feel PC has put Connor in a position to succeed. With the correct coach, surrounding Connor with tougher skilled players, better d-men, and increased overall balance. Winning formula. Mark of a good GM. Now we just need a little ladyluck. Then we can say a great GM.”

    “Considering where we were at before he was hired (I count those months with MacTavish behind the bench as the true nadir) and where we are now, he’s done a fantastic job. …

    Let’s win a Cup first before worrying how many would be considered a success.”

    “All in all, I think our GM has done a great job.”

    “All in all, I think our GM has done a great job.” – I fall in this camp”

  51. OilClog says:

    Chia inherited a forward group that the league was in fear of with a rear end that desperately needed to be constructed to allow said forward group to perform like envisioned.

    Chia dismantled said forward group for a rear end that looks like a Plymouth Sundance where the emblem lettering looks like it was slapped together by a drunkard at a local window factory.

    Chia needs about 5 cups

  52. Georges says:

    Lowetide: My 50-man list isn’t meant to appear as lines, I am trying to squeeze players in on a line. Aberg is technically a LW, but I try to use fewer lines and make it tight.

    I see. Does it represent your take on depth?

  53. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    They are definitely “bets” but, imagine if:

    1) Yamamto can establish himself as a true winger for McDavid and Puljijarvi can establish himself as a true winger for Drai (or vice versa); and

    2) Benning can establish himself as a true 2RD

    If these things can happen, we will be rolling.

    I think a couple keys to the season are:

    1) Jesse establishing himself as a top 6 RW that can produce
    2) Benning establishing himself as a legit 2RD

    OriginalPouzar:
    Leon has already shown to be able to drive offence when away from McDavid but the issue is he’s given up too much in that time and the goal share is negative. We need our 2nd line to run a positive goal share, in particular when it includes an $8.5M man

    From a quick look, Leon’s most common line mates when not with McDavid (and Maroon) were Strome, Lucic, Caggulia, Cammy (and the Strome minutes were 1st half when he was struggling to find his way).

    Here is hoping he can get Puljijarvi and a combo of Reider and Khaira – I am confident that type of line can have a positive goal share.

    For me the issue is less about skill and more about two way play.

    Connor and Leon need wingers that have enough talent to play top 6 (get enough points) but also help in a significant way going back.

    Yama or Rattie might have enough offense but if they can’t play a contributing role in supporting CF% and GF% they are merely skilled players benefiting from being put with world class centres. That doesn’t win games, especially playoff games.

    JP is the best rookie candidate so far because he already has a two way game. Yama might but we don’t know.

    Reider lacks skill some but may actually be the best current option.

    The current whipping boy Lucic had decent numbers with Connor but couldn’t cash. Maybe Luc McD Nuge is worth a shot, and If Luc recovers his hand eye coordination maybe he gets 40 pts, which is all everyone is projecting for the rookies anyway, minus the defense and brawn.

    This pushes more skill down the roster and puts beef on McD’s line which as LT has mentioned is a long standing MO for PC.

  54. HenryDrix says:

    Lowetide: How about this: If Puljujarvi emerges as a player who can push the river, if Yamamoto emerges as equal or superior to Eberle, if Bouchard becomes the player the organization wanted Reinhart to be, I’ll give him credit for recovering from those early misguided trades.

    Note: I don’t think the Eberle trade was especially misguided, he was sending out two years of Eberle for what could be 5+ years of control over Strome. My quarrel with Chiarelli in regard to this trade had to do with his not using the extra cap room. Baffling then, baffling now.

    When the Eberle trade occurred, many in Oil nation were dancing with glee. I still maintain that PC was and is trying to build a team that could succeed in the playoffs (Eberle and Jultz were much maligned for their soft style of play). Ejecting Eberle for a potential replacement while also freeing up cap space (for a deadline acquisition or two to “load up” – at least that was my impression of the plan) seemed to make a lot of sense at the time, but the team Was out of playoff contention well before the deadline). Not defending PC here, but I think that was his plan.

  55. Georges says:

    OilClog:
    Chia inherited a forward group that the league was in fear of with a rear end that desperately needed to be constructed to allow said forward group to perform like envisioned.

    Chia dismantled said forward group for a rear end that looks like a Plymouth Sundance where the emblem lettering looks like it was slapped together by a drunkard at a local window factory.

    Chia needs about 5 cups

    The forward group PC inherited scored 199 goals in 15-16.

    Dallas Eakins’ first team scored 199 goals. His second team scored 193 goals.

    Ralph Krueger’s team scored at a better pace in a shortened season.

    Hall’s first team (10-11) scored 191 goals.

    His second team (Tom Renney’s last team) scored 207 goals.

  56. Jethro Tull says:

    It appears there’s reports of Ray Emery’s tragic passing. If so, RIP, Ray.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Georges: I see. Does it represent your take on depth?

    Not really. If you want the truth, I switched Aberg with Yamamoto because people were mad I was giving the job to Yamamoto. 🙂

  58. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    It appears there’s reports of Ray Emery’s tragic passing. If so, RIP, Ray.

    Bah that’s awful. RIP.

  59. GMB3 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The GM is paid to put a winner on the ice. If the Oil turn the corner and start winning consistently, the individual moves start to fade in importance and the collective roster becomes the ultimate measure imo.

    But I’m also not a person that tends to live in the past. Hall and the ‘Barzal’ pick is gone. It is what is. But so are the picks for Talbot, and the rhetoric is overwhelmingly negative on the Reinhart trade and largely crickets on the Talbot deal. That seems unbalanced to me.

    If Tambellini simply drafts Larsson or if Poile bites on RNH for Seth Jones, it’s amazing how different the verbal is on Chiarelli. That’s how razor thin these margins are. But the good news is we’re past the point of Ben Scrivens having to save 10 touchdowns worth of shots to win a hockey game.

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – OK – deal: If Larsson goes beast mode like 2 years ago in playoffs again, when you “forgave” the Hall trade, and if/when the team looks a lot better than when Hall and Eberle are on it, and we have wingers who don’t go invisible in playoffs like those two and cost a lot less,I will gently remind you of this exchange.You won’t be allowed to say “yeah but”…

    – I think your too categoric, but I appreciate you’ve given yourself the right to change your mind, based on results: results matter most!

    – And if this team tanks this year again, I will be touting time for Chia to go: deal?

    How did Taylor Hall go invisible in the playoffs?

    You want to talk about spinning a narrative with no basis in reality. One could say this is the type of overtly slanderous comment you think the majority of the posters on this blog would be apt to make about Chia.

    Chiarelli isn’t a good GM. At best a mediocre GM. People have the right to call for his firing. The salary cap mismanagement alone is embarrassing. The same mistakes he made with the Bruins that lead to his demise there.

    As LT is fond of saying, “The problem is you develop a past”.

  60. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde,

    – OK I get it: recency bias. I sold Apple for clients, it went down for a bit, then it went up.

    – The stock I replaced it with, hasn’t gone up as much as Apple

    – I’m an idiot for selling Apple: just hope in the next statement the accounts are up…

    – I hope clients don’t fire me for selling Apple

  61. Georges says:

    Georges: The forward group PC inherited scored 199 goals in 15-16.

    Dallas Eakins’ first team scored 199 goals. His second team scored 193 goals.

    Ralph Krueger’s team scored at a better pace in a shortened season.

    Hall’s first team (10-11) scored 191 goals.

    His second team (Tom Renney’s last team) scored 207 goals.

    Here’s how that compares with PIT before and after Crosby/Malkin:

    Season, GF

    01-02, 198 (no more Jagr)
    02-03, 189
    03-04, 190
    05-06, 243 (Crosby)
    06-07, 267 (Malkin)
    07-08, 240
    08-09, 258 (Cup)

  62. Bank Shot says:

    Man they really took the shotgun approach to right wing.

    Puljujarvi, Rattie, Yamamoto, Rieder, Aberg.

    The biggest question marks are defence and goaltending of course.

    I believe Talbot will bounce back.

    They need a young defender to step up. Klefbom bouncing back or Nurse taking another step are the best bets.

    If those two question marks are answered positively, then the next place to look is right wing. If one or two of those right wingers can exceed expectations the Oilers are off to the races.

    The obvious problem here is that the Oilers are counting on way too many bounce backs and breakouts compared to other teams in their division.

    I still think they are lacking in two way players in the forward group as well. Rieder is a nice add but he’s likely only here for one season, especially if he has success. Hopefully Draisaitl can take some steps to becoming a more responsible center.

  63. pts2pndr says:

    OilClog:
    Chia inherited a forward group that the league was in fear of with a rear end that desperately needed to be constructed to allow said forward group to perform like envisioned.

    Chia dismantled said forward group for a rear end that looks like a Plymouth Sundance where the emblem lettering looks like it was slapped together by a drunkard at a local window factory.

    Chia needs about 5 cups

    As I am getting up in years and my memory may not be so good would you please refresh the foward group Mr. Chiarelli traded away other than Hall and Eberle. The other players that made up the group that everyone was afraid of!

  64. v4ance says:

    It took me 4 days of anger before I was able to process and write about the Hall trade in 2016. What I wrote then still applies now.

    i said the Oilers traded their best chance at a cup winning team and started on the path to becoming a more balanced team with (much!) less talent on forward and (a littlie) more talent on defence. Unfortunately, things got worse. You can give credit to Chiarelli for rebuilding the depth on the roster but he is totally at fault for digging the hole in the first place.

    There is an argument to be made that if Chiarelli had just kept Hall, signed Demers, still picked up Talbot, and used the draft picks properly, that we would be a better team now and for the past 2 years. Especially with the $20 million in cap room that he had to play with 2 years ago.

    The template was right there from the 2016 Penguins team: a strong forward corps with 3 outscoring lines and a weaker defence. You don’t think we couldn’t have done the same with McDavid, Hall and Drai each driving a line?

  65. Woogie63 says:

    For me the two biggest bets this year are;

    1) Switching roles between Leon and Nuge

    I was seeing Nuge as a 180 foot center, who scored 40ish points after playing 60 games. He will do better on Connor’s wing. Leon has improved his defensive enough to play 2C.

    2) Switching roles between Klefbom and Nurse.

    Klefbom with Larsson makes more sense for more points from our back end. Nurse anchoring our second pairing (I hope with Sekera on the right side). Is IMO the most effect top 4.

  66. Side says:

    OilClog:
    Chia inherited a forward group that the league was in fear of with a rear end that desperately needed to be constructed to allow said forward group to perform like envisioned.

    Chia dismantled said forward group for a rear end that looks like a Plymouth Sundance where the emblem lettering looks like it was slapped together by a drunkard at a local window factory.

    Chia needs about 5 cups

    I’m sure most other teams respected the Hall/Nuge/Eberle line. I cannot buy that any team was ever afraid of the Oilers forwards that Chiarelli inherited. If they were, they sure hid it well by making comments like “they play like an AHL team”.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Milan Lucic. A lot of talk surrounding his point total as a measure of quality, but he struggled during his 50-point season, too. One of the major pressure points of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the third line.

    An even bigger pressure point of the season is likely to come when Todd McLellan is forced to move the big man to the press box.

    or perhaps he gets his even strength game back and approaches 50 points. Seems unlikely, the trend is not good but I’m going to hope, not expect but hope.

  68. pts2pndr says:

    LT
    As I recall there were restrictions on PC when he came ove from Boston. One f the restrictions pertained to the draft. Due to his knowledge of the Boston scouting I believe he was restricted from participating to ensure integrity for the Boston list.
    My question was something like this in effect? This would help explain the Reinhart for draft picks by the old boys club.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: It actually worked out pretty well five years on. Perron has been mostly productive while Magnus Paajarvi has struggled to stay in the league. Ivan Barbashev was the draft pick and he’s now in the NHL but will need to deliver more offense (and I’m sure he will). If you judge a deal by what happens in the five years after, MacT won that trade. The problem is he and PC traded all their other picks, too.

    It could have ended up a phenomenal deal given the player selected by the draft pick Edmonton received when shipping Perron away…..

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Ty Rattie, Kaiser Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Drake Caggiula and Pontus Aberg can all play on Connor McDavid’s RW well enough to make it effective. They are good enough talents in their own rights, but Connor McDavid just makes people better.I suspect talent rises to the occasion.I think it takes all of Training Camp, all ofPre-Season and at least a dozen Regular Season games before the best RW option(s) appear.But then the RW best options for this Team are more significant than finding the best player for McDavid.

    I’m not sure how you can make the statement above with respect to McDavid and Caggulia given history has shown that Caggulia is one of the few players that’s cratered McDavid, taken him to a below 40% corsi and a goal differential near 45%.

    The exact opposite of your statement has proven to be true, so far.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers: If Aberg wins a spot on the team, and by talent level it appears he should, where does Caggiula fit in the line up? 13th-14th forward?

    Given his $675K cap hit, I can’t imagine Aberg not being on the 23 (maybe 22) man roster – he showed last year to have potential for the middle 6, maybe even the top 6.

    To the extent Aberg does struggle, he could be the 14th forward but, from where I sit, the battle for the last lineup spot is between Caggulia and Aberg. I think most Oiler fans pencil Aberg in to the lineup, however, history shows the head coach likely feels differently.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Leon Draisaitl has played with whoever’s left more often than playing with the best option, so there is some needless concern about his ability to drive a line – nonsense – Leon’s just fine. I believe Leon has Milan Lucic on his LW more often than not this coming Season.They have had some success together and it’s important to turn Milan back around, more important than finding the best option.Strangely enough, Milan might be Leon’s best option.

    Tobias Rieder has played with Leon Draisaitl on the German Team in International/World Cup play.They have a comfort level with each other and a level of success and trust that they might not have with others.I believe they will get an extended opportunity to be successful.Is this the best RW for Leon Draisaitl or the best option for the Team.

    I agree that the best case scenario is for Milan to have a bounce-back season as a legit second line winger (including being able to make plays in transition). If that happens and one of the Jesse or Yamamoto emerge, things may start to look very very good.

    I think most would put the odds on that happening well below 50%, however, I’m not adverse to allowing the possibility to emerge with some material time together through camp and early in the year – if its not working after 8-10 games, then move on but I think the potential it brings warrants a real shot.

    I put zero stock in to Rieder and Leon playing together internationally – it means nothing to me as far as translating to NHL success and the NHL lineup – don’t mean to be rude here but I don’t think its means much at all.

    Here is hoping that the young right wingers emerge, or at least one of them, as I believe Rieder is better served for the 3rd line than the 2nd line (and we may need him at 2LW if both Milan and Khaira aren’t able).

  73. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr:
    LT
    As I recall there were restrictions on PC when he came ove from Boston. One f the restrictions pertained to the draft. Due to his knowledge of the Boston scouting I believe he was restricted from participating to ensure integrity for the Boston list.My question was something like this in effect? This would help explain the Reinhart for draft picks by the old boys club.

    I honestly didn’t hear it. I saw the video and CHiarelli looked shocked to his shoes. However, I can’t make up something around that visual (not suggesting you did) that wasn’t reported, and I didn’t see it reported.

  74. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: It could have ended up a phenomenal deal given the player selected by the draft pick Edmonton received when shipping Perron away…..

    I’m less angry about the player chosen, it was reportedly Joel Eriksson Ek and I would have been fine with him. Barzal is an amazing talent but on draft day, if the Oilers had chosen Ek, he was in my window. Scouts never got a chance.

    I had Barzal No. 8, Eriksson Ek No. 17.
    https://lowetide.ca/2015/06/26/here-comes-the-sun-2/

  75. Wilde says:

    Curiosity struck me while reviewing video and being re-subjected to the team’s abysmal discipline while leading – giving up chance after chance to let opposing teams back into the game(and Talbot often granting them a tally on their first try).

    Looked it up, and Edmonton had the 9th highest SCA/60 while leading, and the 4th highest HDCA/60 while leading.

    GA/60? Deal last. By a lot. 3.58/60, next closest was 3.24/60 and 10th worst 2.60.

    Just awful. It wasn’t just on Talbot for letting in the first shot against after a goal, the Oilers threw games with vigor.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georges:
    Why do you have Rieder on the left?

    The stats sites say Rieder is C/R. nhl.com says Rieder is R.

    Also, Aberg as 2RW? Isn’t he the guy McLellan said this about last year when he pulled him from the lineup after an unsuccessful stint on CMD’s line:

    “”He came out for reasons beyond his play. . . it’s serious. The coaching staff isn’t pleased, the organization isn’t pleased and I’m sure his teammates aren’t pleased.”

    He got hot for 3 games after they put him back in the lineup with Drai, but he was healthy scratched by the end of the season.

    He missed a practice – the reasons why have not been reported (to my knowledge) but he was benched because of it and the reason cited by the coach. When re-inserted in to the lineup, he played well, at least for a stretch.

    I assume the issue has now been dealt with a is no longer a factor – grudges should not be held to hold the team back.

  77. Georges says:

    v4ance:
    It took me 4 days of anger before I was able to process and write about the Hall trade in 2016.What I wrote then still applies now.

    i said the Oilers traded their best chance at a cup winning team and started on the path to becoming a more balanced team with (much!) less talent on forward and (a littlie) more talent on defence.Unfortunately, things got worse.You can give credit to Chiarelli for rebuilding the depth on the roster but he is totally at fault for digging the hole in the first place.

    There is an argument to be made that if Chiarelli had just kept Hall, signed Demers, still picked up Talbot, and used the draft picks properly, that we would be a better team now and for the past 2 years. Especially with the $20 million in cap room that he had to play with 2 years ago.

    The template was right there from the 2016 Penguins team: a strong forward corps with 3 outscoring lines and a weaker defence.You don’t think we couldn’t have done the same with McDavid, Hall and Drai each driving a line?

    “You don’t think we couldn’t have done the same with McDavid, Hall and Drai each driving a line?”

    We had those players. (And we had Talbot.) That lineup didn’t outscore and we lost. As I mentioned above, they didn’t do that good a job of just scoring either, never mind out scoring. The HC had not nice things to say about that lineup. He apparently didn’t see any PIT potential there. He wanted and promised “changes” and I’m not sure the changes he had in mind involved keeping the core together because he believed in them. Just go get that Demers fella and use our draft picks properly isn’t my guess at what he passed along to his GM in terms of needs.

    Way back when, I used to put all of 15-16 on the players. I reasoned that if the veteran, career .600+ HC puts up around the same number of points per game as Todd Nelson (even after adding CMD, Drai, Sekera, and Talbot), man, something’s really wrong with that group of players.

    I’ve come around.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: This is a laughable statement. Please refer yourself to last summer’s posts.

    Go through the July posts and ctrl+f Hall in the comments. Do the same for Barzal.

    If Talbot ran .930 this past year, you’d get shredded for bringing up a ‘what could have been’ hypothetical.

    There is one poster who has expressed that exact sentiment but, I agree, the statement is without merit.

    Posters won’t all of a sudden profess that the Hall/Larsson trade was value or a win, however, if our GM makes smart moves over the next few years, some prospects emerge and some bets are won along with a Stanley, I’m confident the GM will be given his due.

  79. Richard S.S. says:

    The Peter Chiarelli detractors are not always 100% accurate. When Peter Chiarelli was first hired, Edmonton had the promise of McDavid and not much else. The Oilers had three very good players, a lot of draft picks and nothing worth much at all. He inherited a mostly underachieving organization that was to a degree slightly incompetent.

    After Boston’s dislike/fear of Peter became apparent with their trade of D. Hamilton to Calgary, he was forced to move to alternatives to make the Oilers better. To be totally fair, I blame the Oilers’ scouts on the Griffin Reinhart acquisition much more than I do Peter Chiarelli. The GM can only know so much, then he must depend on others for current knowledge and accurate evaluation. This is where the Oilers failed to do the job – was it a lie or just not current?

  80. GMB3 says:

    Side: I’m sure most other teams respected the Hall/Nuge/Eberle line. I cannot buy that any team was ever afraid of the Oilers forwards that Chiarelli inherited. If they were, they sure hid it well by making comments like “they play like an AHL team”.

    Good lord. How many of those bottom 6 forwards from 2010- were still in the league two years later? Frighten brutal. And the D was worse.

  81. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The wild card for the 2nd line (or even first line or simply middle 6) could be Pontus Aberg – he scored just at 2 P/60 at evens while in Edmonton – he looks to be a quicker, faster and more skilled Caggulia to me and, if given a good opportunity, may be able to produce in the top 6.

    You could be right but pretty sure this will not happen while McLellan is head coach. He really likes Caggulia!

  82. theWaxCollector says:

    Not sure if it’s been mentioned yet, but London has signed Adam Boqvist and he’ll play during the 2018-19 season.

    What does this mean for Bouchard and his development if sent back?

  83. rickithebear says:

    Georges:

    01-02, 198 (no more Jagr)
    02-03, 189
    03-04, 190
    05-06, 243 (Crosby)
    06-07, 267 (Malkin)
    07-08, 240
    08-09, 258 (Cup)

    Let’s look at season avg GAA (per 60 rate) from Hockey Reference.
    01-02, (198/82)/2.51 = 96.2%
    02-03, (189/82)/2.54 = 90.7%
    03-04, (190/82)/2.46 = 94.2%
    05-06, (243/82)/2.92 = 101.5%
    06-07, (267/82)/2.77 = 117.5%
    07-08, (240/82)/2.61 = 112.1%
    08-09, (258/82)/2.73 = 115.3%

    Edmonton’s 2 full seasons with Mcdavid
    16-17 (243/82)/2.59 = 114.4%
    17-18 (229/82)/2.78 = 100.5%

    George you misleading “cheeky bastard”

    You have to have a baseline to measure too.

    I want a HD driven system for GA.
    You guys are chasing GF.
    Turns out HD sys may be the answer to both.
    Young Crosby/Malkin level offence without hall in 16-17.

    I keep saying those 2 bullshit calls likely cost the oilers a cup.

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    theWaxCollector: Scungil

    Probably PP time shared, but I don`t think AB has the two way game to take first pairing.

    Maybe that means they don`t think Bouchard will back because AB would be more challenged playing in Sweden than playing teenagers again. He is also eligible for AHL which again would be a better fit if he`s hoping for the NHL soon.

  85. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: I honestly didn’t hear it. I saw the video and CHiarelli looked shocked to his shoes. However, I can’t make up something around that visual (not suggesting you did) that wasn’t reported, and I didn’t see it reported.

    Thanks LT. I know there were concerns expressed at the time but I can not remember how they played out!

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot:

    I still think they are lacking in two way players in the forward group as well. Rieder is a nice add but he’s likely only here for one season, especially if he has success. Hopefully Draisaitl can take some steps to becoming a more responsible center.

    Rieder is an RFA after this year (he was only a UFA b/c he didn’t get a QO) – while he’s clearly looking to prove he’s worth a bigger contract, I believe the intent is for him to be a part of the future (or at least warrant a subsequent contract). If he has a year and prices himself out of Edmonton, he should have solid value in a trade.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: As I am getting up in years and my memory may not be so good would you please refresh the foward group Mr. Chiarelli traded away other than Hall and Eberle. The other players that made up the group that everyone was afraid of!

    You add those two players to McDavid and Drai (and Nuge) and, yes, I would posit that most would consider this a high end forward group to be feared.

    Of course, they would never have the puck and we’d be cycled on by all teams like they employed the 2010 Sedins……

  88. flyfish1168 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    It appears there’s reports of Ray Emery’s tragic passing. If so, RIP, Ray.

    Absolutely sad to hear this news.

    I always remember this fight. Emery laughing away during the fight with Peters but destroying Biron before.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSMuzYxukrc

  89. pts2pndr says:

    Wilde:
    Curiosity struck me while reviewing video and being re-subjected to the team’s abysmal discipline while leading – giving up chance after chance to let opposing teams back into the game(and Talbot often granting them a tally on their first try).

    Looked it up, and Edmonton had the 9th highest SCA/60 while leading, and the 4th highest HDCA/60 while leading.

    GA/60? Deal last. By a lot. 3.58/60, next closest was 3.24/60 and 10th worst 2.60.

    Just awful. It wasn’t just on Talbot for letting in the first shot against after a goal, the Oilers threw games with vigor.

    The team spent much of the year playing not to lose! Works a lot like the prevent defense in football!

  90. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree that the best case scenario is for Milan to have a bounce-back season as a legit second line winger (including being able to make plays in transition). If that happens and one of the Jesse or Yamamoto emerge, things may start to look very very good.

    I think most would put the odds on that happening well below 50%, however, I’m not adverse to allowing the possibility to emerge with some material time together through camp and early in the year – if its not working after 8-10 games, then move on but I think the potential it brings warrants a real shot.

    I put zero stock in to Rieder and Leon playing together internationally – it means nothing to me as far as translating to NHL success and the NHL lineup – don’t mean to be rude here but I don’t think its means much at all.

    Here is hoping that the young right wingers emerge, or at least one of them, as I believe Rieder is better served for the 3rd line than the 2nd line (and we may need him at 2LW if both Milan and Khaira aren’t able).

    While I love your enthusiasm you are saying that playing one of Yamamoto or one of the other yet unproven players on the top two lines is preferred deployment over using Reider. Lucic startinng at third line left wing with second pp unit until he gets his confidence back seems to be a no brainer. It will keep the fans off his back and allow him time to get his game back. Lucic is a class act and getting his game back in a third line role seems prudent IMO!

  91. Georges says:

    rickithebear: Let’s look at season avg GAA (per 60 rate) from Hockey Reference.
    01-02, (198/82)/2.51 = 96.2%
    02-03, (189/82)/2.54 = 90.7%
    03-04, (190/82)/2.46 = 94.2%
    05-06, (243/82)/2.92 = 101.5%
    06-07, (267/82)/2.77 = 117.5%
    07-08, (240/82)/2.61 = 112.1%
    08-09, (258/82)/2.73 = 115.3%

    Edmonton’s 2 full seasons with Mcdavid
    16-17 (243/82)/2.59 = 114.4%
    17-18 (229/82)/2.78 = 100.5%

    George you misleading “cheeky bastard”

    You have to have a baseline to measure too.

    I want a HD driven system for GA.
    You guys are chasing GF.
    Turns out HD sys may be the answer to both.
    Young Crosby/Malkin level offence without hall in 16-17.

    I keep saying those 2 bullshit calls likely cost the oilers a cup.

    Ricki, my point was about the feared forward group of 15-16.

    But I did include Crosby’s years to the Cup instead of just including his first season. Which sort of extended my point. And, you’re right, I didn’t reference a baseline. So, let’s do it.

    Not sure about your hockey reference numbers. Let’s use average GF/GP from nhl.com.

    EDM

    Season, GF/GP, (GF/GP)/LeagueAvg.

    10-11, 2.33, .85
    11-12, 2.52, .95
    12-13, 2.56, .97
    13-14, 2.43, .91
    14-15, 2.35, .88
    15,16, 2.43, .91
    16,17, 2.96, 1.09
    17-18, 2.79, .95

    PIT

    Season, GF/GP, (GF/GP)/LeagueAvg.

    01-02, 2.41, .92
    02-03, 2.30, .87
    03-04, 2.32, .90
    05-06, 2.96, .98
    06-07, 3.26,1.13
    07-08, 2.93,1.08
    08-09, 3.15,1.10

    1. My original point was that offense didn’t change much for CMD’s first team and that it did for Crosby’s first team. What do you think?

    2. Your point, I think, is that CMD’s two full seasons compare favorably with Crosby and Malkin’s first two seasons. I like year 1. What do you think about year 2? We had the 5th best PP last season. Malkin, year 1, PIT’s PP was also 5th best. Malkin’s year 2, PIT had the 4th best PP. As Pink would ask, what about us?

    I’m not sure about your ratios. You have EDM at 100.5% last year but they ranked 20th on goals scored.

  92. v4ance says:

    Georges,

    To me, I still believe most of the talent in 2016 COULD have organically become better just with age. We all knew Hall was an outscorer. McDavid was not quite supernova after half a season lost to injury but the signs of his generational talent were there. Drai had just completed half a season riding with Hall and looked to be on the cusp of justifying his draft pedigree as a top 4 pick.

    To me the error was the vision of how a GM should construct his team. Chiarelli went and looked at constructing a roster type that hadn’t won since the LA Kings in 2014. If you compare the 2016 Oilers to the 2014 Kings or the 2016 Penguins, I felt the team was closer in construction to being like the Penguins. Moving to be the next Kings/Bruins style team required a radical revamp of the players which proved to be less optimal than staying the course and following the Pitt model(imho).

  93. leadfarmer says:

    Accidentally put in yesterdays thread
    I think we are going to regret not signing Nurse to a long term deal. Salary caps have been growing a lot faster than available talent, especially that few good players actually make it to free agency anymore. This will make teams throw lots of money at not so good players, which has really taken off this offseason, which will also raise comparable for other players. Also the cost of poaching other players is pretty low 1,2,3 rd round picks for an 8 mil contracts. I think some of these teams that have trouble attracting talent but want to take the next step are going to start trying to get talent the only way they can outside of the draft, by poaching it from other teams.

  94. Professor Q says:

    theWaxCollector:
    Not sure if it’s been mentioned yet, but London has signed Adam Boqvist and he’ll play during the 2018-19 season.

    What does this mean for Bouchard and his development if sent back?

    It was mentioned the week before last (he signed on July 5th). It won’t likely affect Bouchard’s development that much, although it actually could be a positive influence on both players.

    Both players tend to play both the LD and RD sides interchangeably throughout the game, so they could even pair up for a period or two or for special circumstances (PP, PK, late-game, OT, etc.). Even the minor playing time influence shouldn’t be that egregious, if they play 1RD and 2RD respectively.

    If London can convince Brady Tkachuk to sign as well, as I believe he had made it clear or hinted at wanting to do the NCAA route to separate himself from his brother, then the rebuilding stage might actually only last one season (which would be last season).

  95. rickithebear says:

    RIP Ray Emery’s!

  96. flyfish1168 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Accidentally put in yesterdays thread
    I think we are going to regret not signing Nurse to a long term deal. Salary caps have been growing a lot faster than available talent, especially that few good players actually make it to free agency anymore. This will make teams throw lots of money at not so good players, which has really taken off this offseason, which will also raise comparable for other players. Also the cost of poaching other players is pretty low 1,2,3 rd round picks for an 8 mil contracts. I think some of these teams that have trouble attracting talent but want to take the next step are going to start trying to get talent the only way they can outside of the draft, by poaching it from other teams.

    That is when we Sekera, Russell and Lucic limited movement will need to be exercised so we can pay for Nurse.

  97. Richard S.S. says:

    Georges,

    When fairly comparing the Teams that Crosby and McDavid joined when entering league, include in the comparison of how good the Teams were at the time. There was as I recall a marked difference. Pittsburgh had a good NHL Team, while Edmonton comparably had the equivalent of a good AHL Team.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: While I love your enthusiasm you are saying that playing one of Yamamotoor one of the other yet unproven players on the top two lines is preferred deployment over using Reider. Lucic startinng at third line left wing with second pp unit until he gets his confidence back seems to be a no brainer. It will keep the fans off his back and allow him time to get his game back. Lucic is a class act and getting his game back in a third line role seems prudent IMO!

    I am saying I am hopeful that Yamamoto or Puljijarvi (or maybe even Aberg) will win a top 6 job in camp on merit which could/should allow Rieder to play on the 3rd line where his game is better suited.

  99. rickithebear says:

    Georges:
    GAA is a per 60 rate.
    teams do not play the same minutes in a 82 gm season.
    An accurate measure would be
    (Gf/(TM Total TOI/60)/SSN GA

    You maybe to young to under stand Cheeky bastard is like a wink.

    It was about a cup winnable offence.
    With a cup winnable Defence in 16-17

  100. Georges says:

    v4ance:
    Georges,

    To me, I still believe most of the talent in 2016 COULD have organically become better just with age.We all knew Hall was an outscorer.McDavid was not quite supernova after half a season lost to injury but the signs of his generational talent were there.Drai had just completed half a season riding with Hall and looked to be on the cusp of justifying his draft pedigree as a top 4 pick.

    To me the error was the vision of how a GM should construct his team.Chiarelli went and looked at constructing a roster type that hadn’t won since the LA Kings in 2014.If you compare the 2016 Oilers to the 2014 Kings or the 2016 Penguins, I felt the team was closer in construction to being like the Penguins.Moving to be the next Kings/Bruins style team required a radical revamp of the players which proved to be less optimal than staying the course and following the Pitt model(imho).

    “Chiarelli went and looked at constructing a roster type that hadn’t won since the LA Kings in 2014.”

    WSH was a heavy team. When I looked at this in February, they were the heaviest team in the league after adjusting for TOI. Along the way, they beat the following teams (with their weight ranking in brackets based on what I saw back then).

    CBJ (25)
    PIT (27)
    TBL (31)
    VGK (19)

    WSH didn’t play a Corsi focused game like LAK. But both of them were heavy teams (I’m honestly assuming with LAK back in 2014; haven’t run numbers). I think the heavy part is usually the point of comparison with PC’s Oilers.

    As for chasing the PIT model, yes, we were there in 15-16. But the HC wasn’t. You should go have a look at some of the things McLellan said about his roster as 15-16 wound down. He wasn’t down for let’s give this group one more shot. I agree that roster had potential, especially given that another team and another HC found a Hart season in Hall and another team won 2 Cups with Schultz playing significant minutes. When you say it’s an error of vision on the GM’s part, I actually agree with you.

    He should’ve looked a little closer at his HC.

  101. Professor Q says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Georges,

    When fairly comparing the Teams that Crosby and McDavid joined when entering league, include in the comparison of how good the Teams were at the time.There was as I recall a marked difference.Pittsburgh had a good NHL Team, while Edmonton comparably had the equivalent of a good AHL Team.

    Imagine if McDavid had the equivalent of a Lemieux, LeClair, Recchi, Gonchar, Fleury, and Palffy in his rookie season?

    It’d be as if Gretzky and a few other ’80s and ’90s stars (Weight, Pronger – sorry…, Oates, Peca, etc.) had remained with Edmonton and taught McDavid experience and skills both on and off the ice.

  102. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I am saying I am hopeful that Yamamoto or Puljijarvi (or maybe even Aberg) will win a top 6 job in camp on merit which could/should allow Rieder to play on the 3rd line where his game is better suited.

    OK I guess what I am saying the two right wing spots are for JP and Rieder to lose in that they bring a modecum of defense along with their offense. In hockey like in pool it is as much in what you give away as much as it is in what you make. The two afore mentioned players bring experience which is why I believe it should be their jobs to lose. We probably want the same thing just the approach is different. I also believe that there should be much less experimentation with lines so as to get some chemistry built before the season starts!

  103. JimmyV1965 says:

    Like everything else associated with the Oilers, our perspective of the GM could possibly be clouded by an excruciating detailed analysis of virtually every decision he makes. There is so much discussion and so much analysis that it can be challenging to look at the big picture.

    I think we can acknowledge that every GM, even Stevie Y, makes mistakes. IMO Its all about the balance of decisions. Here’s a list of the the teams I think have a GM who is worse than Chia. Many people will disagree with the list, but I believe the GMs of these teams have either made bad decisions or have no vision of what they want their team to look like.

    1 Florida
    2 Carolina
    3 Islanders
    4 Detroit
    5 Montreal
    6 Ottawa
    7 Buffalo
    8 Minnesota (old GM)
    9 Los Angeles
    10 Colorado
    11 Dallas
    12 Calgary
    13 Vancouver

    Here’s a list of teams I think clearly have a better GM than Chia

    1 Tampa
    2 Toronto
    3 Nashville
    4 San Jose
    5 St. Louis
    6 Arizona

    These are my lists so of course many people will disagree. I get that. Hell, I’m not even sure I like Chia. What I do know is this team was run by the most inept, bungling group of blowhards in the NHL for more than a decade. The new group is a breath of fresh air for me. As an Oiler fan I have also been conditioned to accept gross mismanagement as standard operating procedure. As a result, even a mediocre GM can look good.

  104. flyfish1168 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Like everything else associated with the Oilers, our perspective of the GM could possibly be clouded by an excruciating detailed analysis of virtually every decision he makes. There is so much discussion and so much analysis that it can be challenging to look at the big picture.

    I think we can acknowledge that every GM, even Stevie Y, makes mistakes. IMO Its all about the balance of decisions. Here’s a list of the the teams I think have a GM who isworse than Chia.Many people will disagree with the list, but I believe the GMs of these teams have either made bad decisions or have no vision of what they want their team to look like.

    1 Florida
    2 Carolina
    3 Islanders
    4 Detroit
    5 Montreal
    6 Ottawa
    7 Buffalo
    8 Minnesota (old GM)
    9 Los Angeles
    10 Colorado
    11 Dallas
    12 Calgary
    13 Vancouver

    Here’s a list of teams I think clearly have a better GM than Chia

    1 Tampa
    2 Toronto
    3 Nashville
    4 San Jose
    5 St. Louis
    6 Arizona

    These are my lists so of course many people will disagree. I get that. Hell, I’m not even sure I like Chia. What I do know is this team was run by the most inept, bungling group of blowhards in the NHL for more than a decade. The new group is a breath of fresh air for me. As an Oiler fan I have also been conditioned to accept gross mismanagement as standard operating procedure. As a result, even a mediocre GM can look good.

    Better GM then Chia – Kyle Dubas ??? Islanders with Lou is better

  105. leadfarmer says:

    flyfish1168,

    I’d wait to see how poorly Dubas’ 6 mil per year offers to Matthews and Marner go over before proclaiming him anything.

  106. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965:

    Like everything else associated with the Oilers, our perspective of the GM could possibly be clouded by an excruciating detailed analysis of virtually every decision he makes. There is so much discussion and so much analysis that it can be challenging to look at the big picture.

    To me, Chiarelli’s reputation amongst other team’s fans honestly seems worse than his reputation amongst Oilers fans.

    He has no defenders in other fanbases that I have read. Just the standard MSM press-pass, cartelesque insulation measures.

  107. flyfish1168 says:

    leadfarmer:
    flyfish1168,

    I’d wait to see how poorly Dubas’ 6 mil per year offers to Matthews and Marner go over before proclaiming him anything.

    LOL, and if he pulls it off he is the greatest

  108. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer:
    flyfish1168,

    I’d wait to see how poorly Dubas’ 6 mil per year offers to Matthews and Marner go over before proclaiming him anything.

    He’s no Tambellini, you say?

  109. Wilde says:

    flyfish1168: Better GM then Chia– Kyle Dubas ???Islanders with Lou is better

    Unless Lou is intentionally tanking, he’s had the worst summer of all GM’s by a large margin.

    Buoyed only by the possibility that Kovar is Dadanov, but if he is then you’ll have to pay full price unlike the actual Dadanov who is locked down for well below market value.

    He signed and traded for a total of three players who are north of thirty and delivered below-replacement level performances last year.

    Then lost one of his best defensemen to FA.

    And gave four years of term to an AHL grinder.

  110. flyfish1168 says:

    Wilde: Unless Lou is intentionally tanking, he’s had the worst summer of all GM’s by a large margin.

    Buoyed only by the possibility that Kovar is Dadanov, but if he is then you’ll have to pay full price unlike the actual Dadanov who is locked down for well below market value.

    He signed and traded for a total of three players who are north of thirty and delivered below-replacement level performances last year.

    Then lost one of his best defensemen to FA.

    And gave four years of term to an AHL grinder.

    Lou has history and it is better than PC.

  111. Wilde says:

    flyfish1168: Lou has history and it is better than PC.

    Lou’s salary cap NHL history consists of first round exits, playoff misses and a single finals appearance. Another manager with those credentials doesn’t get the same credit. Holland’s similar, didn’t add much post-cap, legendary status extended invulnerability far too long.

    Lamoriello left Jersey in shambles.

    Not to say Chiarelli’s better or anything, I think ranking GM’s is kind of difficult to do with any degree of veracity though.

    To take the names out of it, I’ll say that the series of decisions made in summers 2015-17 by the Edmonton Oilers will stand as some of the most wasteful, misguided and poorly-executed in the history of the salary cap NHL by hockey historians, once less people have less flesh in the game of storytelling.

    But going forward, I don’t think Chiarelli will do much more damage than any run-of-the-mill, garden variety legacy hockey executive would.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYI did have a great draft – well, at least the first two rounds (I can’t speak to the rest of their picks).

    With that said, its not really that hard to pick Whalstrom and Dobson at 11 and 12 and Wilde is far from a sure thing (put the pick has high end potential which is what you want to look for at 41).

  113. Wilde says:

    I have the Flyers as one of the smarter teams in the league too, wouldn’t be surprised to see them blow up Jets-style in the next few years

  114. Wilde says:

    Wilde,

    With Hart serving the Hellebuyck post

  115. Professor Q says:

    Wilde:
    Wilde,

    With Hart serving the Hellebuyck post

    They just need to have Hart take over one year and the team become yet again a lucky lottery team, *then* blow up the next few seasons.

  116. flyfish1168 says:

    Wilde: Lou’s salary cap NHL history consists of first round exits, playoff misses and a single finals appearance. Another manager with those credentials doesn’t get the same credit. Holland’s similar, didn’t add much post-cap, legendary status extended invulnerability far too long.

    Lamoriello left Jersey in shambles.

    Not to say Chiarelli’s better or anything, I think ranking GM’s is kind of difficult to do with any degree of veracity though.

    To take the names out of it, I’ll say that the series of decisions made in summers 2015-17 by the Edmonton Oilers will stand as some of the most wasteful, misguided and poorly-executed in the history of the salary cap NHL by hockey historians, once less people have less flesh in the game of storytelling.

    But going forward, I don’t think Chiarelli will do much more damage than any run-of-the-mill, garden variety legacy hockey executive would.

    The Devils under Lou made the Stanley Cup playoffs all but three times between 1988 and 2012, qualified for five Stanley Cup Finals (in 1995, 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2012) and won the Stanley Cup three times (in 1995, 2000 and 2003).

    Chiarelli was hired on May 26, 2006, as GM of the Boston Bruins. 2011, Chiarelli won the Stanley Cup. 2015 fired. Record with Bruins playoffs missed 2 times

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Wilde,

    With Hart serving the Hellebuyck post

    Bah – Hart was just outplayed by Skinner in the playoffs.

    Yes, I’m being fictitious, I’m well aware of how elite a prospect Carter Hart is.

  118. leadfarmer says:

    flyfish1168,

    Maybe old Lou. New Lou is quite terrible and had a truly puzzling UFA signing period and that is without Tavares leaving them

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    I know that Rieder can play all three forward positions but is center an actual realistic option for him or can he play center in the same way that Caggulia can play center?

    Ryan Strome has sparkling numbers with both McDavid and Leon (and, with Leon, in almost 200 minutes). Nice possession metrics and great goal share percentage (and great relative goal share).

    I’m not sure why he wasn’t given more time in the top 6 because the Oilers were getting more than they gave up when he was with Leon or Connor.

  120. leadfarmer says:

    flyfish1168,

    Yeah can you please take a smaller contract. We need to pay these other guys whatever they want has always worked in the past. Don’t think they will take almost half of Matthews contract, just like when Draisatl found out what Mcdavid got

  121. Wilde says:

    Professor Q: They just need to have Hart take over one year and the team become yet again a lucky lottery team, *then* blow up the next few seasons.

    They’re actually pretty loaded everywhere but in goal at the NHL level right now. Stacked at forward like the Jets are, and a similar calibre farm team.

  122. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: I know that Rieder can play all three forward positions but is center an actual realistic option for him or can he play center in the same way that Caggulia can play center?

    He has not played center at all.

    93 faceoffs in his career 39% win rate.
    These were due to his centerman getting kicked out and him taking the faceoff.

    OriginalPouzar: Ryan Strome has sparkling numbers with both McDavid and Leon (and, with Leon, in almost 200 minutes). Nice possession metrics and great goal share percentage (and great relative goal share).

    I’m not sure why he wasn’t given more time in the top 6 because the Oilers were getting more than they gave up when he was with Leon or Connor.

    I think the Oilers would like to see Strome become a 2 way centerman who can play all situations. I believe he did better as a winger in the top 6 than 3rd line centerman

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    Curiosity struck me while reviewing video and being re-subjected to the team’s abysmal discipline while leading – giving up chance after chance to let opposing teams back into the game(and Talbot often granting them a tally on their first try).

    Looked it up, and Edmonton had the 9th highest SCA/60 while leading, and the 4th highest HDCA/60 while leading.

    GA/60? Deal last. By a lot. 3.58/60, next closest was 3.24/60 and 10th worst 2.60.

    Just awful. It wasn’t just on Talbot for letting in the first shot against after a goal, the Oilers threw games with vigor.

    Which is why I say the Oilers aren`t missing their Panarin, they are missing their Recchi.

    They have tried a bit, but can`t seem to find the mark. Connor and Leon need a veteran winger who can help out the D side of the game and still play in the O zone.

    Maybe JP goes savant and can be reliable that way but it`s another high risk gamble, because it takes most players years to find a strong balance two ways.

    System play is another yuuge influence on all players and especially goalies. The Oilers were awful last year meeting basic assignments and playing in a stable manner, outside of a few. If the new coaches can settle them down, everyone will look much better and the goal ratio will improve.

    Not many teams make the playoffs of go very far if they aren`t as a team strong in this.

  124. frjohnk says:

    To add to my post above.

    Yamamoto, JP, Rattie, Rieder, are all talked about as possibilities on the right wing I n the top 6.

    Why not put Strome up there? He is our 4th best forward. I think he would be a good fit in the top 6, he is skilled, has a good shot and has scored well when playing with McDavid and Drai. Limited minutes though. I know that leaves JJ and Brodziak as the bottom 6 centres but if having Strome as a winger helps stop the bleeding of what looks to be a revolving door of wingers on the right side in the top 6, it’s maybe something the Oilers need to look at doing.

  125. JimmyV1965 says:

    flyfish1168: Better GM then Chia– Kyle Dubas ???Islanders with Lou is better

    I think Lou ran the Devils into the ground and his early moves with the Islanders don’t look promising. You can probably guess who I think was running the show in Toronto.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: He has not played center at all.

    93 faceoffs in his career 39% win rate.
    These weredue to his centerman getting kicked out and him taking the faceoff.

    I think the Oilers would like to see Strome become a 2 way centerman who can play all situations.I believe he did better as a winger in the top 6 than 3rd line centerman

    I liked Strome as 3C – I thought he did a nice job and could have had material more boxcars of his linemates could cash (I think he as underrated vision on heboffensive zone and made some nice cross ice set ups).

    With that said, he was the best RW option in the top 6 last year and I think it should be explored more if Kailer or Jesse aren’t able to step up.

    Khaira being able to play 3C would help a lot but it’s asking a bit too much at this point.

  127. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: Meh. Chiarelli is the general manager, the buck stops there. I understand the difficult in dealing with interfering owners, have recommended the Jim Devellano book many times. It’s still PC’s responsibility to help the team, not hurt. He made bad trades, there’s no reasonable way to work off that hook.

    Even with his bad trades the blame should be placed directly at the feet of his predecessor. MacT gave away petry for a 3rd round draft choice. He is also responsible for a coaching hire that devalued the team to such an extent that only a generational player could be used to bring in a first pairing D. This same hire was also the cause of the Devan Dubnyk give away! Chiarelli was brought in to fix a hot smelly mess!
    I will agree Chiarelli owns the Hall trade but the Reinhart trade by my take is a shared mistake by group think by people in place prior to Chiarelli’s hire. The draft has improved as has the player pipeline that will start to show value shortly. There have been a number of small trades and signings that have also helped! The bottom line is there are a number of fans that will never be OK with the Hall trade and I understand that. It is however time to move on!

  128. CallighenMan says:

    flyfish1168: The Devils under Lou made the Stanley Cup playoffs all but three times between 1988 and 2012, qualified for five Stanley Cup Finals (in 1995, 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2012) and won the Stanley Cup three times (in 1995, 2000 and 2003).

    Chiarelli was hired on May 26, 2006, as GM of the Boston Bruins. 2011, Chiarelli won the Stanley Cup. 2015 fired. Record with Bruins playoffs missed 2 times

    I believe, however, the comment you are responding to was about Lou’s “cap history” and that is certainly far less impressive than the Devils’ glory years playing the trap.

    Oh, and that was my first post. VERY LOooOoNg time lurker though…

    I was forced to come out of the shadows by web paranoia 😉

  129. Jaxon says:

    When we talk about Chiarelli’s success in Boston is it really his success? This from Jeff Gorton’s wiki page:

    “In his time as interim general manager of the Bruins, Gorton most notably ran the 2006 NHL Entry Draft which produced for the Bruins Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic and Brad Marchand. At the same draft, Gorton traded goaltender Andrew Raycroft to the Toronto Maple Leafs for goalie prospect Tuukka Rask.[4]. Raycroft was coming off a subpar season and his two-year stint in Toronto would prove disastrous, with the Leafs buying him out of the final year of his contract.[5] Rask, meanwhile, had been selected in the first round of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft by Toronto and went on to win the Vezina Trophy as the league’s best goaltender in the 2013-14 season.[6]. On July 1, Gorton signed Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard as free agents. Chara would go on to win the Norris trophy in 2009 as the NHL’s best defenseman while under the contract signed by Gorton.”

    I think Gorton may be more responsible for Cup win than Chiarelli.

    I’m a huge fan of what Gorton did in the draft this year: Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist, and Jacob Ragnarsson – all players I had ranked pretty high based on production. And one of the best goalies in the draft in Olof Lindbom. They decided to blow things up and rebuild mid-season and aggressively added draft picks and young players. Gorton may be a future GM of the year.

  130. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr: Even with his bad trades the blame should be placed directly at the feet of his predecessor. MacT gave away petry for a 3rd round draft choice. He is also responsible for a coaching hire that devalued the team to such an extent that only a generational player could be used to bring in a first pairing D. This same hire was also the cause of the Devan Dubnyk give away! Chiarelli was brought in to fix a hot smelly mess!
    I will agree Chiarelli owns the Hall trade but the Reinhart trade by my take is a shared mistake by group think bypeople in place prior to Chiarelli’s hire. The draft has improved as has the player pipeline that will start to show value shortly. There have been a number of small trades and signings that have also helped! The bottom line is there are a number of fans that will never be OK with the Hall trade and I understand that.It is however time to move on!

    I will never argue over the damage done with regard to Jeff Petry’s handling. The Oilers misplayed the entire contract situation so badly the mind boggles.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    frjohnk:
    To add to my post above.

    Yamamoto, JP, Rattie, Rieder, are all talked about as possibilities on the right wing I n the top 6.

    Why not put Strome up there? He is our 4th best forward. I think he would be a good fit in the top 6, he is skilled, has a good shot and has scored well when playing with McDavid and Drai. Limited minutes though. I know that leaves JJ and Brodziak as the bottom 6 centres but if having Strome as a winger helps stop the bleeding of what looks to be a revolving door of wingers on the right side in the top 6, it’s maybe something the Oilers need to look at doing.

    I think this is smart. TM didn’t like it for some reason.

    As long as Strome is strong defensively and. McD’s wingers need to be D zone champs as Connor will have his eyes up ice, and they need to be a part of getting him the puck in conjunction with the D.

  132. Georges says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Georges,

    When fairly comparing the Teams that Crosby and McDavid joined when entering league, include in the comparison of how good the Teams were at the time.There was as I recall a marked difference.Pittsburgh had a good NHL Team, while Edmonton comparably had the equivalent of a good AHL Team.

    In 03-04, PIT got outscored by 113 goals and finished 30th with 58 points.

    In 05-06, PIT got outscored by 67 goals and finished 29th with 58 points.

    In 14-15, EDM got outscored by 83 goals and finished 28th with 62 points.

    In 15-16, EDM got outscored by 43 goals and finished 29th with 70 points.

    This is how good the teams were before and at the time that the players joined their teams.

    I think CMD is a generational talent. I’m not trying to build an argument against this. I was calling to question the poster’s statement that the league was in fear of the EDM forward group in 15-16… by pointing out their actual performance.

  133. Georges says:

    rickithebear:
    Georges:
    GAA is a per 60 rate.
    teams do not play the same minutes in a 82 gm season.
    An accurate measure would be
    (Gf/(TM Total TOI/60)/SSN GA

    You maybe to young to under stand Cheeky bastard is like a wink.

    It was about a cup winnable offence.
    With a cup winnable Defence in 16-17

    Your formula here and your earlier calculation don’t match. Also, you may be making too fine a point. Have you checked to see whether per GP and per 60 are that different?

  134. Professor Q says:

    Wilde: They’re actually pretty loaded everywhere but in goal at the NHL level right now. Stacked at forward like the Jets are, and a similar calibre farm team.

    I was simply referring to the Hellebuyck and goaltending situation, and how it happened for Winnipeg. The Flyers have done very well, indeed, and I think the goaltending situation isn’t nearly as bad as Winnipeg’s so they won’t have to rely on a surprise season from a then-third string goaltender who suddenly becomes a starter.

  135. Soup Fascist says:

    Bag of Pucks: My issue with this is the obsessive focus on the Hall and Reinhart trades at the expense of all of the smaller smart moves the GM has made.

    I’ve said it before but the gauge should be how the overall portfolio is managed vs. focusing on one or two isolated transactions. The 50 man list and amateur procurement process has been demonstrably better imo.

    LT, I also don’t understand your reluctance to parse the Reinhart and Hall trades in their proper context, which was Katz wanting the D situation fixed ASAP with the new building opening. These pressures were there. They were evident. They were real.

    Ironically, your happiness over Chiarelli’s quiet summer this year may largely be due to the fact that the GM is finally operating with less owner interference. Though the Red Wine Summits are always lurking…

    So other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

  136. frjohnk says:

    Georges: I was calling to question the poster’s statement that the league was in fear of the EDM forward group in 15-16

    Opposing GM’s who had players coming up for free agency, feared the Oilers bottom 6.

    With Hall and or McDavid off the ice, that Oilers group had a GF% of 33%.

    With Hall and or McDavid on the ice, the GF% was 51%.

  137. A-Frame says:

    Bag of Pucks: But I’m also not a person that tends to live in the past. Hall and the ‘Barzal’ pick is gone. It is what is. But so are the picks for Talbot, and the rhetoric is overwhelmingly negative on the Reinhart trade and largely crickets on the Talbot deal. That seems unbalanced to me.

    I’m confused… Are you saying that the net value of the Talbot trade is in any way comparable to the net value of the Reinhart trade????

    Reinhart Trade:
    – 16th pick (mid first round)
    – 33rd pick (early second round)
    + 30 games played by Reinhard (29 reg season, 1 playoffs)
    + 2 assists (1 reg season, 1 playoffs)

    Talbot:
    – 57th pick (late second round)
    – 79th pick (mid third round)
    – 184th pick (early seventh round)
    + 209th pick (late seventh round)
    + 3 years of an NHL calibre starting goalie (with another year left on his contract)

    You might not agree that Talbot’s 2017-2018 season was starting goalie calibre, even so you can’t argue with the fact that he was an NHL calibre player. Regardless of what you think of Talbot’s last season, there is a MASSIVE gap in the net value of these two trades.

    The Reinhart trade was awful at the time and didn’t get any better with hindsight. The Talbot trade appeared to be very positive at the time and I think it is pretty easy to make the case that Talbot has covered the bet of a late 2nd, mid 3rd, and swap of 7th round picks.

  138. rickithebear says:

    Georges: Your formula here and your earlier calculation don’t match. Also, you may be making too fine a point. Have you checked to see whether per GP and per 60 are that different?

    The formula was diffrent.
    It was slightly more accurate based on OT/so games.
    Thier is an in crease of .6 to .8% in team TOI
    A variance 2.60 +/- .002

  139. rickithebear says:

    15-16:
    16th best team 221GF
    17th best team 219GF
    EDM #25 203 gf (-18)

    16th best team 222 GA
    17th best team 224 GA
    EDM #27 245 GA (-23)

    16th best team (-4) GD
    17th best team (-11) GD
    PAC Div winner (+26) GD
    WC Wild Card (+10) GD
    EDM #28 (-42) GD

    16-17
    16th best team 226GF
    17th best team 223GF
    EDM #8 247 GF (+21)

    16th best team 227 GA
    17th best team 234 GA
    EDM #8 212 GA (+15)

    16th best team (+5)GD
    17th best team (-1) GD
    PAC Div winner (+23) GD
    WC Wild Card (+5) GD
    EDM #6 (+35) GD

    17-18
    16th best team 242 GF
    17th best team 239 GF
    EDM #20 234 GF (-8)

    16th best team 243GA
    17th best team 245GA
    EDM #25 263 GA (-20)

    16th best team (-4) GD
    17th best team (-11) GD
    PAC Div winner (+44) GD
    WC Wild Card (+20) GD
    EDM #28 (-29) GD

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