Chiarelli’s Oilers free agents

We are mostly through four free-agent summers for Peter Chiarelli, the biggest move remains Milan Lucic and the best one (Matt Benning in my opinion) may have a challenger in recent addition Tobias Rieder. How many free agent deals have worked out so far?

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JULY 2015 TO JUNE 2016

  • July 1, 2015: Signed D Andrej Sekera. Six years, $33 million, $5.5 million AAV. The Sekera signing suggested (to me) the Oilers were now shopping down a better aisle in free agency. He was absolutely one of the best available defensemen that summer and the first two seasons were quality. An injury in 2017 postseason derailed his 2017-18 campaign and now we await his level of ability for the final three years. He is now 32. In his three Oilers seasons he is averaging 66 games and 24 points. At this point, I think his Oilers career has been worth the investment. I’d love to hear your assessment.
  • July 1, 2015: Signed RC Mark Letestu. Three years, $5.4 million, $1.8 million AAV. Letestu called it better than anyone on the day he signed. He was a guest on TSN1260’s free agent show and told me he would play in all situations and felt he could help on the power play. He didn’t get a lot of opportunity in year one, but scored 11 with the man advantage year two. He had just three PP goals before being traded at the deadline. I count his Oilers career as a success.
  • October 6, 2015: Signed L Braden Christoffer. Three-year entry-level deal, CHL free agent. Rode a hot training camp to an NHL entry-level contract but wasm’t able to find the range as a pro player. Signed an AHL deal with Bakersfield.
  • March 13, 2016: Signed W Jere Sallinen. One year, $792,500. The Oilers have been signing outlier European players for about one decade now and the success rate is very poor. Sallinen couldn’t get much done in the AHL, never got close to Edmonton.
  • April 7, 2016: Signed G Nick Ellis. Two year entry level, college free agent. Chiarelli was very aggressive in procuring goalies, and Ellis looked like he might have some NHL potential. His first pro season put him on a trajectory similar to Laurent Brossoit, his second pro season was not as successful. He retired after his second pro campaign.
  • May 6, 2016: Signed F Drake Caggiula. Two-year entry level, college free agent. Caggiula was the first famous college free agent signed by the organization since Justin Schultz. His NHL career is now two seasons old and he is one of the least productive regulars in the NHL. In 2017-18, his 5-on-5 points per 60 (1.16) ranked No. 307 among 389 forwards who played 400 plus minutes.  His Corsi rel ranked No. 326 among those same 389 forwards.
  • May 9, 2016: Signed R Patrick Russell. Two-year entry level, college free agent. The least successful of the college signings of 2016, he shot the puck a lot but couldn’t score for the Condors in 2016-17. Year two he scored 14, including four on the penalty kill. Still no NHL time, but he did re-sign with Edmonton summer 2018.

JULY 2016 TO JUNE 2017

  • July 1, 2016: Signed L Milan Lucic. Seven years, $42 million ($6 million AAV). Chiarelli’s biggest free-agent signing to date, probably the biggest we’ll see during his time as Oilers general manager. Lucic ranked No. 262 among NHL forwards (400 or more minutes) with 1.30 points-per-60 at 5-on-5 in 2017-18. What people have forgotten is he was No. 267 the season before (1.21) in the same discipline. That’s over 150 NHL games at what can be described as third line (six top-6F per team, times 31 teams=186 players represent the top two lines in any category). All stats via Natural Stat Trick).
  • July 1, 2016: Signed G Jonas Gustavsson. One year, $800,000 (same AAV). A strange signing from the beginning. Gustavsson was the least successful free agent of the Chiarelli era.
  • July 1, 2016: Signed D Mark Fraser. One year, $575,000 (same AAV). Another depth signing, the rugged defender didn’t see the NHL during the 2016-17 season.
  • August 27, 2016: Signed RD Matt Benning. Two-year entry level, college free agent. This may end up being the best free-agent signing of the Chiarelli era. Former Bruins draft pick when PC was in Boston, Benning was not only a perfect fit but he delivered a stunning rookie season. He was inconsistent in year two but this remains a quality addition two years after the fact.
  • Oct 7, 2016 Kris Russell: One year, $3.1 million deal. A training camp invite, who signed a value deal. He was part of the solidification of the defense and in particular, part of Chiarelli’s massive overhaul of right defense. Edmonton signed him to a four-year deal before he reached free agency in summer 2017.
  • April 10, 2017: Signed G Shane Starrett. Two-year entry level, college free agent. Starrett’s college numbers were excellent and he was adequate in the ECHL (.912SP) as a rookie pro. The AHL situation is wide open as we enter fall 2018.
  • March 28, 2017: Signed LC Joe Gambardella, two-year entry-level deal, college free agent. It took him some time to find his way offensively in the AHL but a late scoring surge showed he had some skill at that level. There are some things about him as a player (great on the forecheck, smart) that may allow him to find his way to the NHL through the Fernando Pisani door. I’m not predicting it, just identifying Gambardella as a member of that two-way family.
  • March 1, 2017: Signed RD Ryan Mantha. Three-year entry-level deal, CHL free agent. Mantha had a solid rookie pro season derailed by eye issues and we’re now in a zone of unknown. Damn shame, there are things about his first year pro that suggested real promise.

JULY 2017 TO JUNE 2018

  • July 1, 2017: Signed R Ty Rattie. One year, $700,000. I mentioned it as a sneaky good signing last summer and it may turn out just that way. He has already cleared one major hurdle: McDavid and the coach appear comfortable with him on the top line.
  • July 1, 2017: Signed LD Ryan Stanton. Two years, $1.4 million ($700,000 AAV). The veteran shutdown defender was signed as insurance and injury kept him from recall. We could see him in the NHL in year two of the contract.
  • July 1, 2017: Signed R Mitch Callahan. Two years, $1.4 million ($700,000 AAV). I followed his minor league career and wondered if he was a fringe NHLer who just needed a chance. Callahan’s season was among the most disappointing in the entire organization.
  • July 1, 2017: Signed R Brian Ferlin. One year, $700,000. Chiarelli drafted him for the Bruins, Ferlin has shown promise but is coming off some significant injury issues.
  • July 1, 2017: Signed G Edward Pasquale. One year, $700,000. AHL backup didn’t make it through the season (was dealt to the Lightning organization in late January).
  • July 1, 2017: Signed LD Keegan Lowe. One year, $650,000. Lowe had a strong AHL season and received a quick cup of coffee later on in the NHL. Re-signed this summer and may see more time in Edmonton this coming winter.
  • July 1, 2017: Signed LC Grayson Downing. One year, $650,000. The hope was Downing could provide some spark at center in the AHL but
  • July 3, 2017: Signed LC Brad Malone. Two years, $1.3 million ($650,000 AAV). Malone landed in the Anton Lander spot, played well in preseason and in Bakersfield. Played in seven games during the year with the Oilers and we may see him again in 2018-19.
  • July 7, 2017: Signed L Jussi Jokinen. One year, $1.1 million. Underlying numbers were good but he couldn’t cash and played in some bad luck. Moved along for Mike Cammalleri, who had an effective run with the Oilers.
  • July 10, 2017: Signed LD Yohann Auvitu. One year, $700,000. This will go down in my books as a good signing who never got a full chance with Edmonton. A weird, weird season when your power play is garbage and you won’t try a specialist.
  • December 28, 2017: Signed F Cameron Hebig to an entry-level deal. Chiarelli hasn’t had a great deal of success with CHL free agents, but landed a solid scoring prospect in Hebig. We’ll see him in Bakersfield this winter.
  • March 4, 2018: Signed C Colin Larkin to an entry-level deal. Unusual signing as he came from a lower tier of NCAA, it’s a long shot.
  • May 19, 2018: Signed RD Joel Persson. One-year, $1.775 million. Strange deal, it was agreed to but won’t kick in for one season. Impressive numbers but he spiked in one calendar year and both sides no doubt want to see if he can repeat.

JULY 2018 TO JUNE 2019

  • July 1, 2018: Signed G Mikko Koskinen to a one-year, $2.5 million deal. It was agreed to in May but became official July 1. A big free-agent risk, fits in with Chiarelli’s behaviour in that way, but spending money on backup goalies is a new thing. Maybe he’s not the backup?
  • July 1, 2018: Signed F Tobias Rieder. One year, $2 million. I think this might rival the Benning deal, especially considering Rieder is RFA next summer. Rieder has a great chance to emerge as the Pisani, the responsible winger on his line. The Oilers have needed this guy for exactly one forever.
  • July 1, 2018: Signed RC Kyle Brodziak. Two years, $2.3 million ($1.15 million AAV). Solid fourth line center who moved up the depth chart a year ago and played well. Low cost, low risk and he can PK plus win faceoffs. A fine signing.

There are over 30 transactions here, but most of them are marginal items that didn’t move the needle and weren’t expected to at the NHL level. Among the bigger moves, or ones that worked out, my list of positives (Andrej Sekera, Mark Letestu, Matt Benning) is three. We might add two or three more from this summer’s list and Ty Rattie has a chance to add to the total. Negatives? Milan Lucic is the big drag, his first two seasons were at the level you would have expected much later in the contract. We can parse from there (Russell’s first deal was a positive, the second one hamstrung the team, and Drake Caggiula is a possession drag and a roster block) but the Lucic signing is the hill to die on.

OILERS 50-MAN

The Oilers have three additions to make: Darnell Nurse (I have him listed, he is under control and a contract will get done), Evan Bouchard (important to note, he is unlikely to slide) and an AHL-NHL center (Bob has been pushing this, makes sense to place a skill pivot in Bakersfield for Yamamoto). It’s also possible the organization fast tracks Joel Persson, but that won’t impact the 50-man.

Once all three are signed, the club will have 46 names and three slides. There’s room for more.

COLLEGE FREE AGENTS (AUG 15 GROUP)

I mentioned Matt Benning as my choice for best free-agent signing by Peter Chiarelli since his arrival in Edmonton. Benning was a draftee of the Boston Bruins, and waited out his team to become a free agent in mid-August. There are some interesting names on a collision course with free agency who might be players of interest for the Oilers:

  • RD Kelly Summers, Clarkson. He’s a mobile defender and excellent passer, handedness is a positive. Summer’s boxcars (40, 6-24-30) give him an NHLE of 17.2 (Benning was 14.9). A nice article from last fall is here. Ottawa draft.
  • LD Terrance Amorosa, Clarkson. Flyers draft pick also played at Clarkson. His boxcars (40, 7-20-27) give an NHLE of 15.5. Another mobile defender, good passer, article here.
  • LC Avery Peterson, Minnesota-Duluth. Center with some skill, he’s 6.03, 209 and he can shoot the puck. Shy boxcars (30, 6-5-11) give him an NHLE of 13.2
  • L Aidan Muir, Western Michigan. An Oilers pick, haven’t heard a peep from the organization on him. Big power forward, injuries impacted his college career. Boxcars of 27, 4-8-12 give him an NHLE of 16.0.
  • RD Jack Glover, Minnesota. Highly touted on his draft day (went No. 69 to Winnipeg in 2014), Glover’s development appears to have stalled. Red Line loved him, calling him an underrated two-way defender with size and skill. His boxcars (34, 1-6-7) suggest a shutdown type, NHLE is 5.6.

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163 Responses to "Chiarelli’s Oilers free agents"

  1. OilClog says:

    Lucic is more of an Everest, even with Mcdavid we’re all fucked on this bitch.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would say that Andrej Sekera remains Chiarelli’s best free agent signing.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Does the Persson contract slide? I don’t think it does which means he’s an RFA after this season. I’m not positive on this though.

    The structure of the contract is key – its an entry level contract so the base salary is low, $832.5K which means he can be qualified at under $1M.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I believe Safin’s contract will slide if he’s in the AHL this year (and plays less than 10 NHL games which is all but assured).

  5. Andy Dufresne says:

    “RD Kelly “Summers” Clarkson…… excellent passer, handedness is a positive.”

    If we could sign Kelly Clarkson, that would really boost morale in the locker room……(insert locker room talk here)

  6. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I would say that Andrej Sekera remains Chiarelli’s best free agent signing.

    Agreed, Sekera by far……Koskinen is a close second 🙂

  7. Admiral Ackbar says:

    LT, that commentary about Lucic’s 5on5 numbers/60 the past two years, while true, makes me sad.

    Is there any point to all this?

    Are we past the event horizon of cap hell?

  8. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Adam Larsson, Matt Benning and the merciful end of the Leftorium

    https://theathletic.com/432164/2018/07/16/adam-larsson-matt-benning-and-the-long-slow-death-of-the-oilers-leftorium/

  9. Lowetide says:

    Admiral Ackbar:
    LT, that commentary about Lucic’s 5on5 numbers/60 the past two years, while true, makes me sad.

    Is there any point to all this?

    Are we past the event horizon of cap hell?

    I think we’ll know in a year. Lucic should recover some, that’s my bet. If he doesn’t, there’s no good option.

  10. leeinvan says:

    I hope the press ask a few tough questions to TM when he makes constant boneheaded mistakes. Last year TM got a pass while the players had to answer the tough questions.

  11. Andy Dufresne says:

    We REALLY need to look at Lucic as a $4million dollar middle six winger. If you do otherwise, you’ll drive yourself crazy.The coaches need to play Looch at 3LW against speedier teams and 2LW against bigger more physical teams,or when he’s going good. Get 40pts out of him. Anything more is gravy……albeit expensive gravy, the kind you get at resteraunts like Le Cirque in the Bellagio.

  12. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Adam Larsson, Matt Benning and the merciful end of the Leftorium

    https://theathletic.com/432164/2018/07/16/adam-larsson-matt-benning-and-the-long-slow-death-of-the-oilers-leftorium/

    Agreed. Another master stroke by Chiarelli to fix the mistakes of past Oilers management regimes.

    One day soon….coming to an arena near you……

    Larsson
    Bouchard
    Benning
    Bear

    Im going to call them the “Cardiac Kids”

    LBBB in (medical) Analytics. “Left Bundle Branch Block widens the entire QRS, and in most cases shifts the heart’s electrical axis to the left.”

    (Damage to one of the branch bundles can cause uncoordinated ventricular contractions, and an abnormal heart beat can result. A blocked signal on the right side of the heart is not usually serious, but a BLOCK ON THE LEFT SIDE can indicate a higher risk of coronary artery disease, or some other heart problem)

  13. so polar says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Adam Larsson, Matt Benning and the merciful end of the Leftorium

    https://theathletic.com/432164/2018/07/16/adam-larsson-matt-benning-and-the-long-slow-death-of-the-oilers-leftorium/

    Gotta imagine you’ve been waiting a while to write this one.

  14. Andy Dufresne says:

    Putin and Trump alone together for 2 hours………..Are the Nukes in the air yet???

    Duck and Cover people….Duck and Cover.

  15. stephen sheps says:

    Admiral Ackbar: event horizon of cap hell

    apropos of nothing more than this passing reference to event horizon and the concept of hell, that movie was and is to this day one of the all time scariest pieces of sci fi ever put to film. Sam Neill was utterly terrifying.

  16. Lowetide says:

    So Polar: I’m hopeful the Oilers will be balanced by this time next year.

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    So Polar: I’m hopeful the Oilers will be balanced by this time next year.

    Macabre Alert: the following remark may contain dark humor

    “I’m hopeful the Oilers will be balanced by this time next year.”

    Sounds like something someone puts on ones headstone…. 🙂

  18. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne: Macabre Alert:the following remark may contain dark humor

    “I’m hopeful the Oilers will be balanced by this time next year.”

    Sounds like something someone puts on ones headstone….🙂

    Don’t give me any ideas!

  19. YKOil says:

    Good (in order): Sekera, Benning, Letestu, Russell (Yr 1), the bets * (Caggiula, Mantha, Lowe, etc.)

    Neutral w/promise (in order): Reider, Brodziak, Rattie, Caggiula (extension)

    Neutral (in order): Caggiula (extension)

    Neutral w/doubts: Koskinen

    Bad: Lucic, Russell (Yr 2-5)

    * everything small that could easily be moved or buried – even Jokinen was a positive move given the possibilities (and getting Cammalleri for him was nice)

  20. Georges says:

    Everyday is like Milan Lucic day. Everyday is silent and grey.

    Last 2 seasons, 5v5: (data from corsica)

    Player, GF, GA, +/-, +/- per 60

    McDavid, 157, 107, +50, 1.14

    Lucic, 90, 86, +4, .11

    Drai, 119, 113, +6, .16

    Without CMD (from NST):

    Lucic, 45, 57, -12, -.52

    Drai, 47, 62, -15, -.80

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its been a while since we’ve had a chance to do a “prospect update” from a non internal game/practice so:

    Steve Kournianos

    @TheDraftAnalyst
    23m23 minutes ago
    More
    #U20: LHD Nico Gross (NYR 4th/2018) has a goal and an assist as Switzerland leads the Czech Republic 3-2 after 40. LW Ostap Safin (EDM 4th/2017) has scored for the Czechs.

    —————————————-

    Safin is a lock for the World Junior team (he was on it last year) and I anticipate he’ll be a leader and an offensive driver.

    The one caveat: As he was drafted to the NHL prior to the Q in the CHL import draft, he is eligible to play in the AHL this year even as a teenager. I really don’t know if the org plans on assigning him back to St. John or to the Condors.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    No offence to Jamieson but the Lowetide is NOT the same without its normal host…..

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    6 years, $29.1M for Lindholm – under $5M cap hit for term is a solid deal.

    Hopefully he continues to be a bit disappointing offensively (although I see him being a Backlund type player).

  24. Wilde says:

    Georges,

    Some more individual-centric stats, recorded by @ShutdownLine:

    metric : ML / / LD ( percentile NHL, per 60 )

    Shot assists : 59th / / 98th

    Secondary and tertiary shot assists : 68th / / 100th

    Shots + Shot assists : 43rd / / 93rd

    One timer shots : 80th / / 86th

    One timer shot assists : 43rd / / 98th

    % of on-ice shots player contributes to : 45th / / 95th

    Shot suppression relative to teammates : 51th / / 74th

    Expected primary points : 35th / / 94th

    source :

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/ryan.stimson#!/vizhome/PlayerPassing/ComparisonDashboard

  25. Justthestatsman says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Putin and Trump alone together for 2 hours………..Are the Nukes in the air yet???

    Duck and Cover people….Duck and Cover.

    I wouldn’t worry too much. I can’t imagine given the personality types that a whole lot of listening gets done. I expect a whole lot of hot air as they pump up their platforms and not much else.

    My favourite moment from the World Cup medal presentations yesterday was the the Russian secret service guys holding the single umbrella they had over Putin during the torrential downpour while all of the other dignitaries, including the lovely female leader of Croatia were getting soaked to the bone. Not a fine moment for chivalry. Didn’t seem to bother her, she seemed to just go with the flow.

  26. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    6 years, $29.1M for Lindholm – under $5M cap hit for term is a solid deal.

    Hopefully he continues to be a bit disappointing offensively (although I see him being a Backlund type player).

    Much better than what the rumour was (obviously put forth by the player’s camp) of five and a quarter, but I take issue with the verbal around Lindholm producing more with Calgary’s ‘better’ forwards.

    As of now, Calgary has exactly one more potent offensive forward than anyone on Caroline, and after that Aho is much better than the next best.

    That’s 5v5, and Lindholm’s powerplay history is ghastly.

    Could have been tactical, but if it was, well…

  27. Georges says:

    Wilde:
    Georges,

    Some more individual-centric stats, recorded by @ShutdownLine:

    metric : LD / / ML ( percentile NHL, per 60 )

    Shot assists : 59th / / 98th

    Secondary and tertiary shot assists : 68th / / 100th

    Shots + Shot assists : 43rd / / 93rd

    One timer shots : 80th / / 86th

    One timer shot assists : 43rd/ / 98th

    % of on-ice shots player contributes to : 45th / / 95th

    Shot suppression relative to teammates : 51th / / 74th

    Expected primary points : 35th / / 94th

    source :

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/ryan.stimson#!/vizhome/PlayerPassing/ComparisonDashboard

    It should be ML // LD, not LD // ML. That threw me off.

    Sadly, I can’t get at the data.

    What do you think this says? Anything that makes you go hmm?

  28. Jaxon says:

    I posted some of this late on yesterday’s post, but in talking about Chiarelli’s free agent signings and other moves it’s interesting to think back to the verbal around hiring Chiarelli as a winning GM from Boston. He was the winning GM the Oilers were brining in after winning the McDavid lottery although many were skeptical about him putting Boston in cap hell (sound familiar?). I had always thought he built the Cup winning Bruins’ roster. I stumbled upon some interesting facts when I was browsing around looking at who had good drafts in my opinion (the Rangers had one of my favourite drafts this year). I realized I didn’t know much about their GM, so I looked him up.

    When we talk about Chiarelli’s success in Boston is it really his success, or is it Jeff Gorton’s? This from Jeff Gorton’s wiki page:

    “In his time as interim general manager of the Bruins, Gorton most notably ran the 2006 NHL Entry Draft which produced for the Bruins Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic and Brad Marchand. At the same draft, Gorton traded goaltender Andrew Raycroft to the Toronto Maple Leafs for goalie prospect Tuukka Rask.[4]. Raycroft was coming off a subpar season and his two-year stint in Toronto would prove disastrous, with the Leafs buying him out of the final year of his contract.[5] Rask, meanwhile, had been selected in the first round of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft by Toronto and went on to win the Vezina Trophy as the league’s best goaltender in the 2013-14 season.[6]. On July 1, Gorton signed Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard as free agents. Chara would go on to win the Norris trophy in 2009 as the NHL’s best defenseman while under the contract signed by Gorton.”

    I think Gorton may be more responsible for Cup win than Chiarelli.

    Players Gorton acquired:
    Lucic (’06 draft)
    Marchand (’06 draft)
    Kessel (’06 draft) was later traded for Tyler Seguin (who helped them win the Cup), Dougie Hamilton, and Jared Knight by Chiarelli, he lost the Seguin and Hamilton trades.
    Rask (trade)
    Chara (free agency)
    Savard (free agency, would have been even stronger without his terrible injury luck)

    Gorton basically built a cup winner in 3.5 months (Lucic, Marchand, Rask and Chara with a bit of help from a young Seguin (acquired with Kessel) after playoff injuries gave him a bigger role) and then handed the reigns over to Chiarelli. Chiarelli joined a team that already had those players and Thomas, Bergeron, Krecji in place. He did okay on some smaller trades but lost on larger ones. He never recognized value in Kris Versteeg or Sobotka and traded them for nothing. Lost the Wheeler trade, lost the Brad Boyes trade (he later turned Wideman into Horton, though). Seguin was a no-brainer draft pick as was Hamilton and he traded Seguin away and lost value on him.

    I’m a huge fan of what Gorton did in the draft this year: Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist, and Jacob Ragnarsson – all players I had ranked pretty high based on production. And one of the best goalies in the draft in Olof Lindbom. They decided to blow things up and rebuild mid-season and aggressively added draft picks and young players and kept their speed. Gorton may be a future GM of the year.

    Others on here may be able to tell me if I’m way off base or not with this assessment (Lowetide, especially?), but how much building did he do besides filling in the roster with some vets?

  29. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    6 years, $29.1M for Lindholm – under $5M cap hit for term is a solid deal.

    Hopefully he continues to be a bit disappointing offensively (although I see him being a Backlund type player).

    Lindholm’s 5v5 production rivals Strome’s. Strome’s xGF% numbers a little more impressive. I don’t like this contract for CGY. Like it just fine for EDM!

  30. luc27 says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Im liking the strome contract a little more now.

  31. Wilde says:

    Georges: It should be ML // LD, not LD // ML. That threw me off.

    Sadly, I can’t get at the data.

    What do you think this says? Anything that makes you go hmm?

    Oops.

    Edited for the others, thank you.

    I was waiting for this year’s passing project to get a better, more objective read on just how poorly Lucic was handling the little touches on plays, that he used to be so, so good at.

    Lowetide’s mentioned this before, Milan used to skip rocks softly but with pace and purpose, relaying pucks and supporting the play very well all around the rink. But these past two years, and the damned most recent one in particular his handling was hard on the eyes and to be frank, the nervous system behind them.

    Which is why the data was going to be important. I’m as irrational as anyone else and had my mind made up by March that he was a grenade juggler.

    What we saw was what we got: As far back as the passing project goes is 2014-15, and at that time the variables are more limited with just the percentage of on-ice shots player contributed to, primary shot contributions(combined), shot assists and shots(separate) recorded and compiled.

    At that time, Milan was a 79th percentile shot assister and a 53rd percentile shooter, combining for 69th percentile primary shot contributions and was in on 60% of his on-ice shots.

    What’s been seen and what’s been said is valid – He’s either losing it or it’s already gone.

    That being said, I believe if mis-executed plays were recorded, he’d be up there. That’s not meant as an insult or to be construed as a bad thing, what I’m trying to put forth is that he’s still there at the right time. He’s not Letestu, he’s Cammaleri. He still thinks the game well and (surprisingly, given speed) is in the right spot a the right time.

    So in that way, he’s similar to a player with top-line speed but fourth-line hands who grades out as a third liner, or a former goalscorers who’s lost his shot: he’s strong and smart enough to complement a scoring line, but can’t thread the needle often enough anymore and grades out as a third liner.

    We’ll see what’s in Todd’s head about it.

  32. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    LT

    I’d add Lauri Korpikoski to the list as well, under the was a poor choice at the time and recognized after one year and bought out section. Basically beside Gustavsson.

  33. Lowetide says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    LT

    I’d add Lauri Korpikoski to the list as well, under the was a poor choice at the time and recognized after one year and bought out section. Basically beside Gustavsson.

    Very true, although these are the free-agent signings and Korpikoski was a trade.

  34. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I would say that Andrej Sekera remains Chiarelli’s best free agent signing.

    I agree.

  35. godot10 says:

    Auvito is the proof of the utter lack of imagination of the head coach. Caggiula, of his blindness. And Pitlick, of his forgetfulness.

  36. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I think we’ll know in a year. Lucic should recover some, that’s my bet. If he doesn’t, there’s no good option.

    Pray for a lockout, and compliance buyouts. But that also means one less year of McDavid.

    Be careful what you wish for.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Everyday is like Milan Lucic day. Everyday is silent and grey.

    Last 2 seasons, 5v5: (data from corsica)

    Player, GF, GA, +/-, +/- per 60

    McDavid, 157, 107, +50, 1.14

    Lucic, 90, 86, +4, .11

    Drai, 119, 113, +6, .16

    Without CMD (from NST):

    Lucic, 45, 57, -12, -.52

    Drai, 47, 62, -15, -.80

    I think its important to break out Lucic from Drai as well.

    I’ll use your GF, GA, +/-, +/-/60 way of posting the results.

    Last season
    Drai & CMD & Lucic 6, 7, -1, -0.61

    Drai & CMD & No Lucic 25, 16, +9, +1.35

    Drai & No CMD & Lucic 6, 13, -7, -2.33

    Drai & No CMD & No Lucic 22, 25, -3, -0.40

    No Drai & No CMD & Lucic 17, 19, -2, -0.23

    So it looks like both Lucic and Drai had much better goal results away from each other, even without CMD, and Lucic with 97, 29 wasn’t good (mind you, these are all small samples….)

    I also think its important that the last two number “+/-/60” numbers , -0.40 and -0.23 get put into context.

    Last year when McDavid was not on the ice 5v5 the Oilers were 82, 115, -33, -0.73/60

    So both Lucic away from 29&97 and Draisaitl away from 97&29 were significantly better than the whole McDavid Off -0.73/60

    Add to that 27’s CF away from 97&29 was 50.5% and 29’s away from 97&27 was 50.8%.

    So it might not be a bad assumption that if 97 is on one line, 29 and another and 27 on a 3rd that all 3 lines have a reasonable probability of being 50%+ GF lines next year.

    If the Dcorps Health/Man-defence/Talbot issues are ironed out, I think it might be a reasonable bet.

    I doubt the coach starts 27 on the 3rd line though, and it looks like its imperative that he does.

    Addendum: CMD & no Drai & No Lucic 33, 28, +5, +0.57/60

  38. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Putin and Trump alone together for 2 hours………..Are the Nukes in the air yet???

    Duck and Cover people….Duck and Cover.

    It’s the Democrats and their media allies who are pushing the New McCarthyism. MAD was abandoned as the policy of the United States during the Clinton Administration to one of the pursuit of nuclear supremacy, with next generation missiles and theatre and strategic anti-ballistic missile defenses, the expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders and underbelly (to place the ABM systems as close to Russia as possible. The West supports and funds the colour revolutions.

    If you want nuclear war, the US establishment and Deep State are who you should worry about, the old guard of both parties. For them, the Great Game has never ended, and continues apace.

    Trump is more interested in great new locations for his branded real estate and buyers of units in his property from kleptocratic states than in the Great Game.

  39. leadfarmer says:

    Adam Henrique getting paid. Sounds like 5.825 per

    We need to lock up all our players on long term contracts quick

  40. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Pray for a lockout, and compliance buyouts.But that also means one less year of McDavid.

    Be careful what you wish for.

    Anybody praying for another gorddamned lockout is not a hockey fan.

  41. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Umm you do know that those “Russian Border” countries have had long history of Russian aggression against them and want protection against Russia right? And the next countries further away want to use those countries as a buffer against Russian aggression?
    You make it sound like we force those countries to have our weapons systems when in fact they are begging for them.
    The US has a long history of having other people fight our wars for us with our money and weapons helping those people, take Vietnam war for example. This is absolutely no different. The Russians just need a strong deterrence because if they really wanted to they could very easily march to Germany in no time

  42. leadfarmer says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yeah you can very easily put compliance buyouts into the next CBA without shutting down the whole thing

  43. godot10 says:

    godot10: It’s the Democrats and their media allies who are pushing the New McCarthyism.MAD was abandoned as the policy of the United States during the Clinton Administration to one of the pursuit of nuclear supremacy, with next generation missiles and theatre and strategic anti-ballistic missile defenses, the expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders and underbelly (to place the ABM systems as close to Russia as possible. The West supports and funds the colour revolutions.

    If you want nuclear war, the US establishment and Deep State are who you should worry about, the old guard of both parties.For them, the Great Game has never ended, and continues apace.

    Trump is more interested in great new locations for his branded real estate and buyers of units in his property from kleptocratic states than in the Great Game.

    Russia and China have responded to the US push for nuclear supremacy by pursuing cheaper asymmetric MAD, hypersonic missiles, cyber and social media Ops, cracking down on Western NGO’s that help organise colour opposition. Xi extended his term indefinitely in response to the isuccess of Wesrern-supported colour opposition movements.

  44. Bos8 says:

    Ahem..

    Cooper Marody signing?

  45. Lowetide says:

    Re: The relationship with our southern partner. I was told by a wise woman once that, in a relationship, when one partner begins to stray from the normal, it’s important for the other partner to remain constant. That way, when the misbehaving partner wakes up, they’ll know top dead center because the other partner has remained constant.

    That’s the role of those who appreciate freedom and value the things earned through so much bloodshed in Europe in our last century. In my opinion. Stand up for yourself, yes. But importantly, do not compromise on normal and what it represents. Ever.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Bos8:
    Ahem..

    Cooper Marody signing?

    April 8, I believe.

  47. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide,

    An oversight in the lead article, Yes?

  48. Psyche says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    No offence to Jamieson but the Lowetide is NOT the same without its normal host…..

    I agree it’s not the same, nor should it be. I enjoyed DJ’s interviews and the CFL discussion. LT and DJ are both great and different!
    I’m listening to TSN1290 (Winnipeg) prior to LT’s regular show. I find their morning crew has mature opinions and aren’t afraid to respectfully disagree with each other.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Xi extended his term indefinitely because he could. Has nothing to do with anything the west is doing. He had all the power and no opposition so why not make yourself president for life.
    Chinas economy has been growing, they have a lot of money so they want to make themselves a strong military presence in the area.
    Russia knows they cant possible spend near as much money on military as the US so they have to get creative using other technologies

  50. Lowetide says:

    Bos8:
    Lowetide,

    An oversight in the lead article, Yes?

    Marody was a trade, not a free agent signing.

  51. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide,

    You’re right. I’m a dummy.

  52. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    godot10,

    Umm you do know that those “Russian Border” countries have had long history of Russian aggression against them and want protection against Russia right?And the next countries further away want to use those countries as a buffer against Russian aggression?
    You make it sound like we force those countries to have our weapons systems when in fact they are begging for them.

    Be careful what you wish for,

    It is important to remember that the powers-that-be on either side, ordinary people are pawns who will be willingly sacrificed when necessary in the pursuit of the Great Game.

    Just look at the trail of woe left behind by Bush and Obama in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and North Africa, and Syria.

    Part of the deal with the US hegemon will be the the acceptance of millions of migrants. How well is that exactly going over in Europe, and there will be millions more coming as the new Cold War intensifies, and the Great Game is fully afoot again.

    The deal with America may not quite be the deal they imagined it would be.

    Remember Trump is merely a symptom, not a cause. The growing populism everywhere is the result of the fundamental failure of the Western elites. This failure will remain after Trump’s brief appearance on the world stage ends.

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: The quest for a 2nd line that wins the GF% battle and includes Lucic…….

    Last year
    27-93-x (no CMD or Drai on ice)

    291 min
    50.2% CF
    54.2% GF
    14-11 (GF-GA)
    50% SCF
    50% HDSCF

    50% in any of the columns with no CMD on the ice was a high bar on EDM last year………..

    That free up:

    Last year
    x-97-29 (No 93 or 27 on ice)
    394 min
    54% CF
    61% GF
    25-16 (GF-GA)
    53.4% SCF
    55.9% HDSCF

    *walks away whistling with hands in pockets*

  54. Munny says:

    LT said…

    July 10, 2017: Signed LD Yohann Auvitu. One year, $700,000. This will go down in my books as a good signing who never got a full chance with Edmonton. A weird, weird season when your power play is garbage and you won’t try a specialist.

    I don’t think the coach ever really trusted Auvitu without a responsible defensive partner next to him. I haven’t looked up his OT minutes but IIRC he didn’t see any action in the “Sekera Spot” till post New Year’s. And even then very few.

  55. Material Elvis says:

    godot10:

    Just look at the trail of woe left behind by Bush and Obama in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and North Africa, and Syria.

    As opposed to the utopian societies that existed prior to Bush and Obama…..

  56. Spooky Lynx says:

    godot10,

    Could you recommend some reading on The Great Game?

  57. Munny says:

    LT said…

    Evan Bouchard (important to note, he is unlikely to slide)
    _____________________

    Question for the Community (especially Swedish Poster)…

    Is there a Euro League where Bouchard can play against men and be sure to get top 4 pairing minutes and 1/2 PP?

    I feel like the SEL is not that place. They seem much more likely to slow play a 19 yo.

  58. Lowetide says:

    Bos8:
    Lowetide,

    You’re right.I’m a dummy.

    Not so!

  59. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its been a while since we’ve had a chance to do a “prospect update” from a non internal game/practice so:

    Steve Kournianos

    @TheDraftAnalyst23m23 minutes ago
    More
    #U20: LHD Nico Gross (NYR 4th/2018) has a goal and an assist as Switzerland leads the Czech Republic 3-2 after 40. LW Ostap Safin (EDM 4th/2017) has scored for the Czechs.

    —————————————-

    Safin is a lock for the World Junior team (he was on it last year) and I anticipate he’ll be a leader and an offensive driver.

    The one caveat: As he was drafted to the NHL prior to the Q in the CHL import draft, he is eligible to play in the AHL this year even as a teenager. I really don’t know if the org plans on assigning him back to St. John or to the Condors.

    Why not keep him as a Sea Dog for now? No use rushing him. I’m sure the spot can be filled.

  60. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Material Elvis,

    LMFAO, You ARE a bassturd!!

  61. Professor Q says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    Evan Bouchard (important to note, he is unlikely to slide)
    _____________________

    Question for the Community (especially Swedish Poster)…

    Is there a Euro League where Bouchard can play against men and be sure to get top 4 pairing minutes and 1/2 PP?

    I feel like the SEL is not that place. They seem much more likely to slow play a 19 yo.

    Maybe the Swiss league like Matthews? But then again it’d be weird.

  62. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide:
    Re: The relationship with our southern partner. I was told by a wise woman once that, in a relationship, when one partner begins to stray from the normal, it’s important for the other partner to remain constant. That way, when the misbehaving partner wakes up, they’ll know top dead center because the other partner has remained constant.

    That’s the role of those who appreciate freedom and value the things earned through so much bloodshed in Europe in our last century. In my opinion. Stand up for yourself, yes. But importantly, do not compromise on normal and what it represents. Ever.

    What did Calgary do now?

  63. Bruce McCurdy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yeah you can very easily put compliance buyouts into the next CBA without shutting down the whole thing

    If it’s so easy how come they failed to do anything of the sort the last three negotiations in a row.

    Also worth noting that compliance buyouts don’t happen in a vacuum. Other teams would also take advantage of them & the net gain for any one team would be marginal.

  64. Bank Shot says:

    Bruce McCurdy: If it’s so easy how come they failed to do anything of the sort the last three negotiations in a row.

    Also worth noting that compliance buyouts don’t happen in a vacuum. Other teams would also take advantage of them & the net gain for any one team would be marginal.

    Yeah, that’s true, but generally the top teams like the Lightning, Penguins, Caps don’t have any terrible contracts so a compliance buyout window gives teams like Edmonton a chance to catch up a little.

  65. Munny says:

    Material Elvis: As opposed to the utopian societies that existed prior to Bush and Obama…..

    Since when was Utopia ever the goal?

  66. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I believe Safin’s contract will slide if he’s in the AHL this year (and plays less than 10 NHL games which is all but assured).

    Yes, the “Mikko Rantanen slide”

  67. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis: As opposed to the utopian societies that existed prior to Bush and Obama…..

    The Great Game has been ongoing for two centuries. The borders the countries were drawn by the British. The first chemical weapons introduced and used in the Middle East were by the British in the twenties. The brutal Shah regime was installed by the American (colour revolutions before they had colours). The blowback to it was as horrific.

    Wahhabism or Salafism would be minor sects of Islam if not for the British deciding to give them all the oil instead of endowing the oil bounty to the moderate Arab masses.

  68. Georges says:

    Wilde: Oops.

    Edited for the others, thank you.

    I was waiting for this year’s passing project to get a better, more objective read on just how poorly Lucic was handling the little touches on plays, that he used to be so, so good at.

    Lowetide’s mentioned this before, Milan used to skip rocks softly but with pace and purpose, relaying pucks and supporting the play very well all around the rink. But these past two years, and the damned most recent one in particular his handling was hard on the eyes and to be frank, the nervous system behind them.

    Which is why the data was going to be important. I’m as irrational as anyone else and had my mind made up by March that he was a grenade juggler.

    What we saw was what we got: As far back as the passing project goes is 2014-15, and at that time the variables are more limited with just the percentage of on-ice shots player contributed to, primary shot contributions(combined), shot assists and shots(separate) recorded and compiled.

    At that time, Milan was a 79th percentile shot assister and a 53rd percentile shooter, combining for 69th percentile primary shot contributions and was in on 60% of his on-ice shots.

    What’s been seen and what’s been said is valid – He’s either losing it or it’s already gone.

    That being said, I believe if mis-executed plays were recorded, he’d be up there. That’s not meant as an insult or to be construed as a bad thing, what I’m trying to put forth is that he’s still there at the right time. He’s not Letestu, he’s Cammaleri. He still thinks the game well and (surprisingly, given speed) is in the right spot a the right time.

    So in that way, he’s similar to a player with top-line speed but fourth-line hands who grades out as a third liner, or a former goalscorers who’s lost his shot: he’s strong and smart enough to complement a scoring line, but can’t thread the needle often enough anymore and grades out as a third liner.

    We’ll see what’s in Todd’s head about it.

    From that, you believe Lucic has been gone since 14-15?

    Nothing at all that makes you go hmm, then? Is there any place where they lay out why taking (I’m assuming) a non-random sample of ice time and recording shot assists and other microstats helps us learn something important about players? Do they provide their data in raw form?

  69. Professor Q says:

    godot10,

    I personally blame the Roman Empire.

    The Persian Empire they took over had centuries of unity, peace, and prosperity, and they ruined that for millennia since.

  70. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah, that’s true, but generally the top teams like the Lightning, Penguins, Caps don’t have any terrible contracts so a compliance buyout window gives teams like Edmonton a chance to catch up a little.

    Ryan Callahan says hi.

  71. stephen sheps says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    godot10,

    Could you recommend some reading on The Great Game?

    Not to speak for Godot, especially since he uses a set of terms I don’t recognize, but if I’m parsing this series of posts correctly, there’s a whole heap of books and scholarly articles kicking around on the relationship between capitalism and colonialism as well as things like post war map redrawing and the net results. Given some of the more recent historical moments of conflict Godot cites, looking into the Sykes-Picot agreement, the Balfour declaration and the Treaty of Lausanne would help to contextualize a lot of the current instabilities we see in the Middle East and North Africa.

    One could also speculate that this ‘great game’ is like a geopolitical Highlander type scenario, in which there can be only one. Given that the US has acted as the sole remaining ‘Superpower’ since the fall of the USSR, perhaps this is what is being argued.

    A reasonable, albeit far from perfect place to start on the decline of the “Superpower” discourse and American Hegemony would be “Empire” by Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri, but that’s only if you have the patience for reading a fairly lengthy and obviously left-learning book. Can’t help you with sources from the centre or right on this, at least not without more of a sense of what Godot’s getting at.

  72. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think its important to break out Lucic from Drai as well.

    I’ll use your GF, GA, +/-, +/-/60 way of posting the results.

    Last season
    Drai & CMD & Lucic 6, 7, -1, -0.61

    Drai & CMD & No Lucic 25, 16, +9, +1.35

    Drai & No CMD & Lucic 6, 13, -7, -2.33

    Drai & No CMD & No Lucic 22, 25, -3, -0.40

    No Drai & No CMD & Lucic 17, 19, -2, -0.23

    So it looks like both Lucic and Drai had much better goal results away from each other, even without CMD, and Lucic with 97, 29 wasn’t good (mind you, these are all small samples….)

    I also think its important that the last two number “+/-/60” numbers , -0.40 and -0.23 get put into context.

    Last year when McDavid was not on the ice 5v5 the Oilers were 82, 115, -33, -0.73/60

    So both Lucic away from 29&97 and Draisaitl away from 97&29 were significantly better than the whole McDavid Off -0.73/60

    Add to that 27’s CF away from 97&29 was 50.5% and 29’s away from 97&27 was 50.8%.

    So it might not be a bad assumption that if 97 is on one line, 29 and another and 27 on a 3rd that all 3 lines have a reasonable probability of being 50%+ GF lines next year.

    If the Dcorps Health/Man-defence/Talbot issues are ironed out, I think it might be a reasonable bet.

    I doubt the coach starts 27 on the 3rd line though, and it looks like its imperative that he does.

    Addendum: CMD & no Drai & No Lucic 33, 28, +5, +0.57/60

    FWIW, I wrote this about Lucic on the weekend, IMO he should be able to contribute as a 3LW. Perhaps away from CMD, Drai and RNH he will take a leadership role to heart and will find some motivation in being “demoted”. Motivated, proud athletes coupled with his physical attributes could be a force to contend with. Yup he is now 30, and other than his spinal condition, has there been any other notable injury to be concerned about? Also, he no longer has an expectant wife and all the stuff that could potentially accompany a pregnancy, I am hoping we see a better version of #27 in 2018-19. I still have a feeling that a trade is still in the works though, the cap seems too tight and Chia is on the hotseat (unless he really isn’t).

    Regarding Lucic, I wanted to take a closer look at his season. We all saw his issues, such as the terrible passes in the Dzone, the missed open net chances and the seeming lack of engagement. The clash with Mike Smith was one of the highlights of this season for me, but because we rarely saw this from him it really stood out. I will just present the info for the masses to digest. For me I think there are good indicators that he will be able to bounce back next year, because IMO his issues were a combination of a lack of focus and piss-poor deployment. So I think it is 65% on him* and 35% on the coaching staff*.

    * these numbers were determined using the POOMA** method

    The negatives:

    A. 5.93 shooting percentage, lowest of his career, 2nd lowest was in rookie season when it was 6.41%, his 1st season in Edmonton it was 8.33%. Lucic has a 13.7% career shooting average.

    B. 0.994 PDO, mostly due to his craptastic shooting percentage, for context this was only the 3rd season it has ever been below 1.000, the previous times were his 1st and 3rd years.

    C. 66 Giveaways – this was a career high, and by eye this isn’t much of a surprise. In 16-17 he had 40. His 2nd most was 58, 5 seasons previous. His career average is 37.5.

    D. 4 penalties drawn, this was the lowest of his career. In 16-17 he drew 6, the 2nd lowest in his career. Prior to arriving in E-Town he averaged 12 per season.

    E. 16 minor penalties taken. This was the most he had taken in 7 years, the previous season he took 7, his career average is 13.7.

    F. He also had the lowest primary 5v5 assists in 8 seasons and 2nd most secondary 5v5 assists in his career.

    G. 71 hits taken, this was the lowest total in his career, 6 less than his first season in Edmonton. In the 6 seasons prior to joining the Oilers he averaged over 100 hits taken.

    Postives (?)

    A. 52.83% Ozone start was his lowest in 7 years and his 358 Dzone Face-offs were the most in his career.

    B. 51.96 HDCF% ithe previous season it was 49.11%

    C. 40.74% HDGF the previous season it was 55.58% and the previous 5 seasons it was 60+%

    D. Rebounds created were the highest of his career, the 2nd highest was in 16-17

    E. 24 shot blocks, highest in his career- likely related to career high giveaways, but it shows his GAF*** factor is still high, no?

    F. Highest hit total since his 2nd year, 53 more than 16-17.

    **Pulled Out Of My Ass

    ***Give A Fuck

  73. Side says:

    godot10: The Great Game has been ongoing for two centuries. The borders the countries were drawn by the British.The first chemical weapons introduced and used in the Middle East were by the British in the twenties.The brutal Shah regime was installed by the American (colour revolutions before they had colours).The blowback to it was as horrific.

    Wahhabism or Salafism would be minor sects of Islam if not for the British deciding to give them all the oil instead of endowing the oil bounty to the moderate Arab masses.

    Hmmmm… surprisingly you have not blamed Todd McLellan in these posts yet…

    I kid, I kid.

  74. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide,

    Look, it’s my little misery. Gonna sit here and eat worms. Yum, yum.

  75. stephen sheps says:

    Professor Q: Why not keep him as a Sea Dog for now? No use rushing him. I’m sure the spot can be filled.

    Might actually be better for his development to play in the AHL at 19 than in the Q and see how he does against men. It’s a middle ground development option that so many of the prospects don’t have and not all that different than playing in a pro league in Europe.

    He’s already had a season to acclimate to the North American game and proved himself to be a prospect worth watching. Plus, if he plays in the AHL this season, his ELC still slides as a result of the same clause allowing him to be in the A in the first place. Seems like a good option to consider at least.

  76. godot10 says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    godot10,

    Could you recommend some reading on The Great Game?

    I don’t have anything specific in mind to recommend. It is a rabbit hole. Google the Great Game or Central Asian military (or economic) strategies and follow what interests you.

  77. stephen sheps says:

    Munny: Since when was Utopia ever the goal?

    Depends on which philosopher you ask. To many, utopia was indeed the goal. To others, only rational self-interest.

    Personally, I’m on team strive for utopia and hope humanity ends up building an earth that’s more like star trek’s version – transporters, replicators and all… but maybe without that synthahol stuff. I want our future to still include scotch

  78. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    July 10, 2017: Signed LD Yohann Auvitu. One year, $700,000. This will go down in my books as a good signing who never got a full chance with Edmonton. A weird, weird season when your power play is garbage and you won’t try a specialist.

    I don’t think the coach ever really trusted Auvitu without a responsible defensive partner next to him.I haven’t looked up his OT minutes but IIRC he didn’t see any action in the “Sekera Spot” till post New Year’s.And even then very few.

    Of the defencemen who finished the season in Edmonton:

    5v5 G/60
    =======
    1. Auvitu 0.43
    2. Benning 0.32
    3. Russell / Nurse 0.19

    5v5 A/60
    =======
    1. Auvitu 0.85
    2. Nurse 0.74
    3. Russell 0.61

    5v5 P/60
    =======
    1. Auvitu 1.28
    2. Nurse 0.93
    3. Benning 0.85

    Auvitu was 7th among Oilers D in PPTOI, & despite all the lip service about pace spent 60% of the season in the pressbox & further time playing the wrong position.

    Among the (many) deployment questions I had last season, much of it games that didn’t much matter, the treatment of Auvitu was among the most puzzling.

  79. Munny says:

    Lowetide:

    Re: The relationship with our southern partner. I was told by a wise woman once that, in a relationship, when one partner begins to stray from the normal, it’s important for the other partner to remain constant. That way, when the misbehaving partner wakes up, they’ll know top dead center because the other partner has remained constant.

    That’s the role of those who appreciate freedom and value the things earned through so much bloodshed in Europe in our last century. In my opinion. Stand up for yourself, yes. But importantly, do not compromise on normal and what it represents. Ever.

    We have drifted far farther from what civil society was after the World Wars than the USA has. Although both of us have drifted a good deal. Some of that drifting has been good, most bad.

    Hopefully the US stays constant for us.

  80. Side says:

    Munny: We have drifted far farther from what civil society was after the World Wars than the USA has.

    I’m afraid to even ask….

  81. square_wheels says:

    stephen sheps,

    and lots of mountain bike trails and elk to hunt 🙂

  82. Primetime says:

    stephen sheps: Might actually be better for his development to play in the AHL at 19 than in the Q and see how he does against men. It’s a middle ground development option that so many of the prospects don’t have and not all that different than playing in a pro league in Europe.

    He’s already had a season to acclimate to the North American game and proved himself to be a prospect worth watching. Plus, if he plays in the AHL this season, his ELC still slides as a result of the same clause allowing him to be in the A in the first place. Seems like a good option to consider at least.

    I think this should depend on the situation in Saint John (ie. coaches, line mates, plan). I believe continuity is very important at this stage in development. Remember the Pitlick express took a new stop every year (college, WHL, AHL) and it appeared to be detrimental to his development (along with his brittle body). His talent appears to be eventually breaking through, but it’s been a long road. I would wager that Safin would benefit from stability of situation to work on his game, versus an ever changing off ice situation.
    Now, if the plan is to absolutely keep him in the AHL the next 2 years, then may not be a bad idea since Woodcroft is now coaching the Bake, and would be the epitome of consistency to the NHL message.

  83. stephen sheps says:

    square_wheels,

    holodecks my friend… holodecks 🙂

  84. Wilde says:

    Georges: From that, you believe Lucic has been gone since 14-15?

    Nothing at all that makes you go hmm, then? Is there any place where they lay out why taking (I’m assuming) a non-random sample of ice time and recording shot assists and other microstats helps us learn something important about players? Do they provide their data in raw form?

    No, I’m saying that when Lucic was a stronger 5v5 scorer, he also had stronger passing microstats.

    I would say the decline appears to have began in Edmonton.

    When you ask me the hmm question, is it to find out how much I doubt the methodology and validity of the metrics?

    Some of what you’re asking for can be found here:

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/12/18/passing-project-data-release-volume-i/

  85. stephen sheps says:

    Primetime: I think this should depend on the situation in Saint John (ie. coaches, line mates, plan).I believe continuity is very important at this stage in development.Remember the Pitlick express took a new stop every year (college, WHL, AHL) and it appeared to be detrimental to his development (along with his brittle body).His talent appears to be eventually breaking through, but it’s been a long road.I would wager that Safin would benefit from stability of situation to work on his game, versus an ever changing off ice situation.
    Now, if the plan is to absolutely keep him in the AHL the next 2 years, then may not be a bad idea since Woodcroft is now coaching the Bake, and would be the epitome of consistency to the NHL message.

    Yeah, that’s a fair point, the one about moving around too often as a potential detriment to development. But that’s also exactly why I think moving him to the A now makes the most sense – get him more integrated into the pro systems and work on his game with other potential future teammates. If the AHL team is going to be the development pipeline I think we all want it to be and a solid B prospect with upside (can’t teach size!) has the opportunity to get a head start on pro development, a smart organization would take advantage of such things. I certainly see the advantages of keeping him in the Q, but I think the pros of going to the A outweigh the cons.

  86. square_wheels says:

    stephen sheps,

    soooooooo can Strummer play for me every night ? Want to understand this “strange flying machine” you speak of.

    Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer grossly underrated character imho.

  87. godot10 says:

    Can’t help you with sources from the centre or right on this, at least not without more of a sense of what Godot’s getting at.

    I was not particularly trying to get at anything except warn against Trump Derangement Syndrome and the New McCarthyism.

    The Fool is on the Stage. The Fool is almost never the problem or the driver of the action or plot. The discontent of the “deplorables” who elected him and voted for Brexit and in increasing numbers for populist parties in Europe is real. The elites have failed. Instead of acknowledging and answering for their failure they deal in TDS and the Putin bogeyman.

  88. godot10 says:

    stephen sheps: Depends on which philosopher you ask. To many, utopia was indeed the goal. To others, only rational self-interest.

    Personally, I’m on team strive for utopia and hope humanity ends up building an earth that’s more like star trek’s version – transporters, replicators and all… but maybe without that synthahol stuff. I want our future to still include scotch

    But there are two Trek’s. Kirk’s Trek and the cultural marxist Trek that began to emerge more fully with every subsequent iteration. (Ditto the evolving Star Wars).

  89. stephen sheps says:

    godot10: I was not particularly trying to get at anything except warn against Trump Derangement Syndrome and the New McCarthyism.

    The Fool is on the Stage.The Fool is almost never the problem or the driver of the action or plot.The discontent of the “deplorables” who elected him and voted for Brexit and in increasing numbers for populist parties in Europe is real.The elites have failed.Instead of acknowledging and answering for their failure they deal in TDS and the Putin bogeyman.

    Gotcha. Thanks.

    I can work with that. Trump (and ‘Trumpism’) is a symptom, not the cause, of a much larger institutional failure.

  90. leadfarmer says:

    Bruce McCurdy: If it’s so easy how come they failed to do anything of the sort the last three negotiations in a row.

    Also worth noting that compliance buyouts don’t happen in a vacuum. Other teams would also take advantage of them & the net gain for any one team would be marginal.

    I dont think it was the compliance buyouts that shut the league down. Usually its the amount of money each pool gets that is the issue.
    Not all teams salary cap situation is equal. Some teams would definitely benefit a lot more than others from compliance buyout (like us and Chicago would really benefit. This “marginal effect” would be far from marginal for these teams.

  91. Wilde says:

    Saros for three more at one and a half.

    Nashville is fucking cheating.

    Hartman and Saros for 2.375M next year.

  92. godot10 says:

    stephen sheps: Gotcha. Thanks.

    I can work with that. Trump (and ‘Trumpism’) is a symptom, not the cause, of a much larger institutional failure.

    Trump: ” Are you not entertained? “

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: Much better than what the rumour was (obviously put forth by the player’s camp) of five and a quarter, but I take issue with the verbal around Lindholm producing more with Calgary’s ‘better’ forwards.

    As of now, Calgary has exactly one more potent offensive forward than anyone on Caroline, and after that Aho is much better than the next best.

    That’s 5v5, and Lindholm’s powerplay history is ghastly.

    Could have been tactical, but if it was, well…

    I agree.

    Same coach and I expect same results.

    Hopefully Peters continues to run him out on the PP because, as you state, the results are not good (actually awful) – year after year.

  94. stephen sheps says:

    godot10: But there are two Trek’s.Kirk’s Trek and the cultural marxist Trek that began to emerge more fully with every subsequent iteration.(Ditto the evolving Star Wars).

    Fun fact – I actually wrote a paper during my PhD comparing Roddenberry’s utopian vision to the work of anarchist-utopian philosopher Murray Bookchin’s version.

    I could go all day on this topic, but I don’t actually believe there to be two distinct treks. The early version was as much a product of its time (and writers’ room) as the subsequent iterations. Roddenberry’s ‘Horatio Hornblower’ in space premise shifted as much as his own values did. Kirk’s trek, as much as it was more blunt and engaged in the cold war discourse of its day was certainly a progressive force – the vulcan ‘infinite combinations in infinite diversity’ stuff was explored in Kirk’s day, to say nothing of the casting of multiple races & ethnicities for the bridge crew, the inter-racial kiss & the strong anti-war critiques of beloved episodes like “the guardian of forever” (and less beloved episodes like “the way to eden” and “let this be your last battlefield”). Even the Prime Directive that every captain ever tended to violate was at least created to ensure every culture’s right to its own socio-political evolution comes out of the very cultural turn (like the work of Stuart Hall) you attribute to the post-Kirk era has its roots in the 60s. And let’s not forget his Wife (Majel Barrett, who you might remember from such roles as Nurse/Dr. Chappell, the voice of the computer on the enterprise D, and sadly also Troi’s cartoonish mother) claimed he was a communist in several interviews. Seems pretty consistent in its politics to me. Other than Discovery. That show I can’t make heads or tales of so far.

    And now that I’ve descended into full nerd, I think I’ll get back to work.

    Fun thread, y’all!

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Pray for a lockout, and compliance buyouts.But that also means one less year of McDavid.

    Be careful what you wish for.

    Not that there is precedent for this with no labor stoppage, however, I don’t think a lockout is necessary for compliance buyouts – they can be negotiated in the labor talks even if the new deal gets done without a stoppage.

  96. Richard S.S. says:

    When you compare all the players that went in the Expansion Draft, you’ll realize how difficult a job some G.M.s made of it. Are those G.M.s bad G.M.s? Or it this just part of the normal difficulties every G.M.s face?

    Not everyone wants to play with your team. Some always will, some never will, that’s par for the course. For the rest, what is offered controls the decision, but sometimes location matters. Sometimes term matters, sometimes the money matters, but sometimes playing time matters most. But believe it or not sometimes luck matters most.

  97. russ99 says:

    godot10: I was not particularly trying to get at anything except warn against Drumpf Derangement Syndrome and the New McCarthyism.

    The Fool is on the Stage.The Fool is almost never the problem or the driver of the action or plot.The discontent of the “deplorables” who elected him and voted for Brexit and in increasing numbers for populist parties in Europe is real.The elites have failed.Instead of acknowledging and answering for their failure they deal in TDS and the Putin bogeyman.

    I think it has little to do with a new McCarthyism – Amercans don’t really feel threatened by Russia, it’s more like a good old typical American discontent with whoever is in power because the 1% get more and more and the 99% get left behind.

    I’m an American and and am deeply disturbed by the constant embarrassment Trump puts our nation through, but he’s the symptom, not the cause

    I maintain the American capitalist system of every man for himself needs a similar shakeout that Communism experienced under Gorbachev. When a system established centuries ago works for less and less, and you’re screwed regardless who you vote for, something has to change.

    In 2017 in America, Trump represented that change. Not especially good change, or wanted change by the majority of Americans but change nevertheless.

  98. jtblack says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    Evan Bouchard (important to note, he is unlikely to slide)
    _____________________

    Question for the Community (especially Swedish Poster)…

    Is there a Euro League where Bouchard can play against men and be sure to get top 4 pairing minutes and 1/2 PP?

    I feel like the SEL is not that place. They seem much more likely to slow play a 19 yo.

    Swiss League? DEL?

  99. Jethro Tull says:

    Sheriff Chris Mannix: No. No, no, no, no, no. You got done me talking politics. I didn’t wanna. Like I said you all, I’m just happy to be alive.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: Why not keep him as a Sea Dog for now? No use rushing him. I’m sure the spot can be filled.

    If it is rushing him – I’m generally of the opinion that there are few situations where the CHL would be better for a talented player’s development than the AHL and this is rare opportunity to put a teenager in the AHL.

    With that said, if he’s not ready, he’s not ready – I just don’t know if he is or not. From accounts, he was uneven in his nine (I think) games at the end of the year.

    He is a big guy – although, from following him on IG still VERY MUCH a teenager.

  101. Georges says:

    Wilde: No, I’m saying that when Lucic was a stronger 5v5 scorer, he also had stronger passing microstats.

    I would say the decline appears to have began in Edmonton.

    When you ask me the hmm question, is it to find out how much I doubt the methodology and validity of the metrics?

    Some of what you’re asking for can be found here:

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/12/18/passing-project-data-release-volume-i/

    Lucic has been under 2 points per 60 3 out of the last 4 seasons. 15-16 with LAK was the exception. His passing microstats looked bad in that season as well.

    Thanks for the link. Still can’t find the data though.

    I tend to be skeptical until I have reason to be less skeptical. It’s a new source of data. Cool. What does it tell me about winning and losing or about predicting player performance? Shots “explain” something like 1/4 or 1/3 of the variance in goals at the player level, depending on how you filter for TOI. (I think I got that right.) Microstats based on shot volume seem to have a ceiling.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: If it’s so easy how come they failed to do anything of the sort the last three negotiations in a row.

    Also worth noting that compliance buyouts don’t happen in a vacuum. Other teams would also take advantage of them & the net gain for any one team would be marginal.

    I agree with the original point, compliance buyouts can be negotiated in to a new CBA without labor stoppage. That’s just one point, just because they agree on the implementation of the compliance buyouts does not mean that they are settled on all other negotiated points.

    From a simple view, yes, the net gain looks marginal, however that won’t be the case. Of course, not all teams have contracts with a $6M (or more) cap hit that they’d want to buy out. Lots of teams would use the compliance buyouts on smaller contracts. Additionally, not all owners would be willing to use compliance buyouts (from a pure money spent view) in particular larger dollar buyouts.

  103. Wilde says:

    Georges: Lucic has been under 2 points per 60 3 out of the last 4 seasons. 15-16 with LAK was the exception. His passing microstats looked bad in that season as well.

    Thanks for the link. Still can’t find the data though.

    I tend to be skeptical until I have reason to be less skeptical. It’s a new source of data. Cool. What does it tell me about winning and losing or about predicting player performance? Shots “explain” something like 1/4 or 1/3 of the variance in goals at the player level, depending on how you filter for TOI. (I think I got that right.) Microstats based on shot volume seem to have a ceiling.

    It’s about asking what a player is doing on the ice before asking how effective they are at it.

    A player could pass the puck endlessly and do nothing else, to the detriment of their team. They would show up as a passer.

    Not that they are an effective passer, but that is what they do . Whether or not they have succeeded is in the goals.

    It’s just like using shots/60 to determine if a player is a volume shooter.

    You could use their goals/60, but that would just be measuring their success as a shooter.

    You could use their assists/60, but that would just be measuring their success as a passer.

    What are they trying to do, and how are they trying to do it? These microstats are a piece of the puzzle.

  104. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with the original point, compliance buyouts can be negotiated in to a new CBA without labor stoppage. That’s just one point, just because they agree on the implementation of the compliance buyouts does not mean that they are settled on all other negotiated points.

    From a simple view, yes, the net gain looks marginal, however that won’t be the case. Of course, not all teams have contracts with a $6M (or more) cap hit that they’d want to buy out.Lots of teams would use the compliance buyouts on smaller contracts. Additionally, not all owners would be willing to use compliance buyouts (from a pure money spent view) in particular larger dollar buyouts.

    Potentially including Daryl Katz

  105. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Each ‘limited’ player (most players) have to be used by the coach in ways that suit their game for them to be effective as best they can.

    This argument has come up many times here for various players, be it a stats defence of the player, or an explanation for a surge from them or a drop off.

    Lucic’s underlying numbers aren’t as bad as his scoring numbers. They aren’t probably even bad in a relative sense. Teams that have on ice issues drag every player down, even Connor. Except Connor dragged down is still better than everyone else.

    To me priority number one should be finding an exit strategy for Lucic that isn’t awful. His wife wants out, he wants out so reports go.

    IF Connor has to drag somebody around, it should be Lucic, not a rookie, Rattie or Caggiula. Lucic will score as much or more in a more stable season. He also can and has been more effective in the overall game play than either.

    To me the key difference now is Nuge. If Nuge is on Connor’s line, Connor has somebody who can play with him IQ and skill wise, and can help get the puck up the ice and make O zone entries. This allows Lucic to do what he does best. I’m not sure the right mix has been used to maximize what Lucic is good at.

    I’d have Nuge at RW which I’m confident he can adapt to because of his IQ. Connor and Nuge get the puck in and create. Lucic is a beast on the walls and drives the net. He is fairly quick straight ahead so when the Oilers gain the puck his beelines for a dump in or the net. Not having to be a puck carrier plays to his strengths.

    Lucic is a formidable net front presence. He can’t be intimidated, quite the opposite. What is key here for me is the distraction and amount of pressure it puts on the D. Maroon had an element of this without the gravity, and it works. This opens up space and time for Nuge and Connor. Just get to the right places, let them do the playmaking.

    Lucic has to decide he’ll play that role, but unless somehow in the space of a few weeks he forgot how to play hockey I think his game will regress the right way, even if not to his prime levels. He can still play a key role 5v5. I wouldn’t push PP time as that has never been his strength. If he gets a shot and gets hot ride it, and when it stops pull him off.

    The point of this is that if he recovers his typical game, if Nuge and Connor keep humming, Lucic could ride coattails to 50 points or more, and that makes PC’s job a heck of a lot easier finding a US address for him, especially if Luc does it with ill humour and keeps his rep going that way.

    Much better than other options at this point. It would be different to me if they had acquired a proven first line winger, but they haven’t.

    This may also work with Leon, but only if there is another winger that can help drive play. Lucic needs a quality opposite winger or he’ll struggle again IMO. Given his quickness limitations, playing with less system trained and/or erratic players plays to his weaknesses and neutralizes what he can do well, because he’s chasing a play that can’t be anticipated and he can’t skate down.

    It’s possible JP or Yama could play with him, but despite skill most really young players aren’t good at the details, which IMO is a problem for Lucic in his game.

    I know most won’t agree, but I see potential. I also think Connor and Nuge benefit from having a player that intimidating and tough on the line, like Wilson is for Ovi and Backstrom, who are big guys but still benefit from that presence on the ice with them. The effect would be more so for smaller forwards like Connor and Nuge.

  106. commonfan29 says:

    stephen sheps: Personally, I’m on team strive for utopia and hope humanity ends up building an earth that’s more like star trek’s version

    It’s interesting though, that Kirk never met a utopia he didn’t hate.

    For him, life without struggle was a fate worse than death.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah, that’s true, but generally the top teams like the Lightning, Penguins, Caps don’t have any terrible contracts so a compliance buyout window gives teams like Edmonton a chance to catch up a little.

    Most teams have a contract or two they’d like to get rid of – even the top teams.

    I think the distinction is more between rich teams and poor teams.

    Does anyone think that Melnyk would buy out Bobby Ryan and eat that dead cost?

  108. godot10 says:

    stephen sheps: Fun fact – I actually wrote a paper during my PhD comparing Roddenberry’s utopian vision to the work of anarchist-utopian philosopher Murray Bookchin’s version.

    I could go all day on this topic, but I don’t actually believe there to be two distinct treks. The early version was as much a product of its time (and writers’ room) as the subsequent iterations. Roddenberry’s ‘Horatio Hornblower’ in space premise shifted as much as his own values did. Kirk’s trek, as much as it was more blunt and engaged in the cold war discourse of its day was certainly a progressive force – the vulcan ‘infinite combinations in infinite diversity’ stuff was explored in Kirk’s day, to say nothing of the casting of multiple races & ethnicities for the bridge crew, the inter-racial kiss & the strong anti-war critiques of beloved episodes like “the guardian of forever” (and less beloved episodes like “the way to eden” and “let this be your last battlefield”). Even the Prime Directive that every captain ever tended to violate was at least created to ensure every culture’s right to its own socio-political evolution comes out of the very cultural turn (like the work of Stuart Hall) you attribute to the post-Kirk era has its roots in the 60s. And let’s not forget his Wife (Majel Barrett, who you might remember from such roles as Nurse/Dr. Chappell, the voice of the computer on the enterprise D, and sadly also Troi’s cartoonish mother) claimed he was a communist in several interviews. Seems pretty consistent in its politics to me. Other than Discovery. That show I can’t make heads or tales of so far.

    And now that I’ve descended into full nerd, I think I’ll get back to work.

    Fun thread, y’all!

    Kirk’ Trek promoted liberal values…I.e. liberty and the responsibilities of liberty. Each iteration drifted further towards progressive values…which, at root, are totalitarian, and opposed to liberty.

  109. stephen sheps says:

    commonfan29: It’s interesting though, that Kirk never met a utopia he didn’t hate.

    For him, life without struggle was a fate worse than death.

    Ha! That’s why I said I’m on ‘team strive for utopia’. The struggle to reach for something that’s just always just out of your grasp is what makes it worth while, no?

    And in one of the greatest moments of the show’s history, when Kirk found his utopia (city on the edge of forever), he knew that the person who made the world perfect (for him) had to die.

    We’ve had many a TNG thread over the years (Darmok ad infinitum), a couple about voyager even recently but I cannot recall one that went TOS.

  110. stephen sheps says:

    godot10: which, at root, are totalitarian, and opposed to liberty.

    Methinks you’ve perhaps read too much Jordan Peterson, who hasn’t actually read enough of what he critiques, but that’s a different issue altogether.

    In the interest of not derailing the thread more than my star trek digressions already have, let’s continue this offline – I know we’re both in the GTA. I’ve posted my email enough in recent threads and I can be found on the twitters at @ShepsStephen. Seems like a worthwhile chat to have over our respective drinks of choice and I’ll never say no to meeting folks from this group IRL.

  111. Nix says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Of the defencemen who finished the season in Edmonton:

    5v5 G/60
    =======
    1. Auvitu 0.43
    2. Benning 0.32
    3. Russell / Nurse 0.19

    5v5 A/60
    =======
    1. Auvitu0.85
    2. Nurse 0.74
    3. Russell 0.61

    5v5 P/60
    =======
    1. Auvitu 1.28
    2. Nurse 0.93
    3. Benning 0.85

    Auvitu was 7th among Oilers D in PPTOI, & despite all the lip service about pace spent 60% of the season in the pressbox & further time playing the wrong position.

    Among the (many) deployment questions I had last season, much of it games that didn’t much matter, the treatment of Auvitu was among the most puzzling.

    Chicago would have him pencilled in as 1LD 😉

    Oesterle was run pedal to the metal, warts and all. Rutta I believe is speculated by some to be their 1RD this upcoming season. Hell, I always wanted to see Pitlick get a few shots with McDavid.
    Some teams seem to play to players strengths and run with ‘not NHL players’ just fine… It really roasts the old almonds.

  112. Wilde says:

    Honestly Auvitu not having an NHL job is a farce.

    I wonder if he turned down an offer, disillusioned by NHL HC’s deployment?

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    stephen sheps: Might actually be better for his development to play in the AHL at 19 than in the Q and see how he does against men. It’s a middle ground development option that so many of the prospects don’t have and not all that different than playing in a pro league in Europe.

    He’s already had a season to acclimate to the North American game and proved himself to be a prospect worth watching. Plus, if he plays in the AHL this season, his ELC still slides as a result of the same clause allowing him to be in the A in the first place. Seems like a good option to consider at least.

    Even moreso if the Sea Dogs are going to be devoid of offensive help like they were last year.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Primetime: I think this should depend on the situation in Saint John (ie. coaches, line mates, plan).I believe continuity is very important at this stage in development.Remember the Pitlick express took a new stop every year (college, WHL, AHL) and it appeared to be detrimental to his development (along with his brittle body).His talent appears to be eventually breaking through, but it’s been a long road.I would wager that Safin would benefit from stability of situation to work on his game, versus an ever changing off ice situation.
    Now, if the plan is to absolutely keep him in the AHL the next 2 years, then may not be a bad idea since Woodcroft is now coaching the Bake, and would be the epitome of consistency to the NHL message.

    I can’t imagine him not needing at least 2 more years.

  115. Nix says:

    Wilde:
    Honestly Auvitu not having an NHL job is a farce.

    I wonder if he turned down an offer, disillusioned by NHL HC’s deployment?

    He did seem a bit salty at his nhl experience in an interview earlier this offseason. I know thats anecdotal but thats the vibe I got reading it.

  116. leadfarmer says:

    Wilde,

    Damn thats some fine GMing. Curious what he gives Ellis but I’m guessing it will be below market value

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Potentially including Daryl Katz

    Potentially, however, I would find that surprising.

  118. stephen sheps says:

    OriginalPouzar: Even moreso if the Sea Dogs are going to be devoid of offensive help like they were last year.

    On the other hand – top line minutes if that’s the case… hmmm, now I’m torn. In any case, up arrows for the player, and it’s great to have options like this for a change.

  119. Connoreah says:

    russ99: I think it has little to do with a new McCarthyism – Amercans don’t really feel threatened by Russia, it’s more like a good old typical American discontent with whoever is in power because the 1% get more and more and the 99% get left behind.

    I’m an American and and am deeply disturbed by the constant embarrassment Trump puts our nation through, but he’s the symptom, not the cause

    I maintain the American capitalist system of every man for himself needs a similar shakeout that Communism experienced under Gorbachev. When a system established centuries ago works for less and less, and you’re screwed regardless who you vote for, something has to change.

    In 2017 in America, Trump represented that change. Not especially good change, or wanted change by the majority of Americans but change nevertheless.

    I find it strange when people try to rationalize Trump’s election victory with a “failure of the elites” for 2 reasons:

    1. The man shits on a golden toilet and brags – daily – that he is the elitist of the elite. You’re suggesting that Americans chose him in protest of what he represents. It makes no sense to me. It’s just a marketing con job that many people seem to have bought into.

    2. The narrative that things are so terrible under the current system is questionable, at best. Are many people in the US suffering? Yes. Are the needs of the poor overlooked for the interests of the rich? Absolutely. Does living in America beat living in 90% of the rest of the world (Canada not included), despite these shortcomings? 100% yes. Yet Trump and his followers are out there everyday suggesting that western civilization is a cancer, and authoritarian rule is what is needed. The rule of law is being openly undermined, the free press is being referred to as “the enemy of the people” and human decency is being trashed as ‘political correctness.’

    All this because of “the failures of the elite?” I don’t buy it.

    *Edit: I’m referring to Godot’s original argument here regarding elites.

  120. Side says:

    Connoreah: I find it strange when people try to rationalize Trump’s election victory with a “failure of the elites” for 2 reasons:

    1. The man shits on a golden toilet and brags – daily – that he is the elitist of the elite. You’re suggesting that Americans chose him in protest of what he represents. It makes no sense to me. It’s just a marketing con job that many people seem to have bought into.

    2. The narrative that things are so terrible under the current system is questionable, at best. Are many people in the US suffering? Yes. Are the needs of the poor overlooked for the interests of the rich? Absolutely. Does living in America beat living in 90% of the rest of the world (Canada not included), despite these shortcomings? 100% yes. Yet Trump and his followers are out there everyday suggesting that western civilization is a cancer, and authoritarian rule is what is needed. The rule of law is being openly undermined, the free press is being referred to as “the enemy of the people” and human decency is being trashed as ‘political correctness.’

    All this because of “the failures of the elite?” I don’t buy it.

    Who would have thought. A wealthy member of the elite who inherited his money would not be fighting for the little guy and instead, is using his platform to further his own interests and his wealthy buddies interests.

    Did not see that coming.

  121. VOR says:

    I am going to tell the story of the Pitcher.

    It is probably my favorite scouting story.

    It starts with an Ambidextrous pitcher. By the time he turned 14 he had thrown four one hitters. Two with each arm. At 15 he threw a perfect game. For scouts the trip to Milton became a pilgrimage. They left drooling.

    The Pitcher could hit, he could field. He was the full meal deal. A big man he was lightening on the base bath. And he could field.

    He was also a multi-sport jock. The Pitcher holds basketball records to this day. And of course he played hockey.

    For whatever reason the Pitcher with a shining career ahead of him choose hockey, the sport he was least good at.

    It would be fair to say the Pitcher as a hockey player underwhelmed.

    Oh all the tools were there. He could skate like the wind or at least like a runaway freight train on a steep downhill grade. Today we’d say he had a plus shot. Legend has it given time to windup he could put it through plexiglass. The Pitcher llived to hit people and would drop the gloves with anyone. But he wasn’t a goon. Nope, he had soft, soft hands, and was able to thread the puck through the eye of the needle, a skill he attributed to being able to switch hands creating odd angles and passing lanes.

    The sum was a lot less than the total of the parts. There were serious consistency problems. And there was a giant attitude problem. Entitlement doesn’t come close to being strong enough to describe the Pitcher’s behaviour. He ended up in court suing his Junior Team.

    By the time his draft eligible year rolled around the Pitcher was labouring in obscurity out on the outer edge of the hockey world. So complete was his exile that not a single scout saw him play a game the entire year. But one scout did come to see him.

    For now we are just going to call the scout in question the Genius.

    And this is where the story becomes part of the folklore of hockey. The Genius had seen the Pitcher pitch. And watching him pitch the Genius had concluded the kid didn’t know the meaning of the word quit. The Genius wanted to add some one with, as he put it years later, “insane intensity” to the generational talent he’d drafted and the stunning supporting cast he was building.

    But the Genius did his homework. He met with the Pitcher for hours over multiple days. He trained with him. He took him out for super. He talked to the kid’s coaches and trainers and doctors. That last one is important.

    You see the stories the Genius had heard turned out to be true. The kid cared so much, got so amped up before games he gave himself migraine headaches. The Genius was assured that with the right drugs, with meditation, with psychotherapy, and with coaches constantly telling him to back the fuck off the gas pedal the problem was manageable.

    And so, in full awareness that he was passing up Hall of Fame talents the Genius took the Pitcher in the 2nd round of the draft. The GM didn’t want the Pitcher, the Coach hated the idea of him but the Genius had the courage of his convictions. The GM deferred to his Director of Player Development (that was the scout’s job title at the time) because he’d come to realize the Genius knew people, he could see into their soul. So complete was the GM’s faith in his protege he let the Genius make personnel decisions. The coach deferred because the GM had given the Genius serious input into picking the Coach. So the coach owed the Genius.

    It was a few weeks into the following season when the stories started to hit the press. They were about a rookie who cared so much he was there before the arena opened and was still there until security escorted him out. They finally gave him a key. Then they caught him driving the Zamboni. The press soon learned that he was in constant conflict with the coaching staff who were trying to get him to “ease the hell up.”

    The team’s iconic leader would say later, “At first we thought he was mentally ill. Well some of the team thought he was coked up or a speed freak. We all knew there was no way anybody could play an entire season at that pace.

    “But it was what he did on the ice that changed our minds. All the times we thought we were playing our hearts out but we didn’t get the breaks and hung our heads and quit. And then Greasy would do his thing and bail us out. Gradually we realized he wasn’t drugged or crazy, we just weren’t trying hard enough. So we tried harder, we came up to his level. And then he raised the level. Year after year he raised the level.”

    And this story will all make sense when I tell another story. Years ago two young friends despondent after losing the Stanley Cup Final, well being humiliated in the Stanley Cup Final happened to walk by the victorious team’s dressing room. They expected a wild party. Not to hear Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier tell it. What they saw was a team so weary they couldn’t even work up the energy to shower. Most were wrapped in ice. Others wore slings and wraps. The player they hated the most laid on a bench unable to move. Around the league that prick was known as the Greasy Jet and no Oiler wanted to be on the same ice wth him. And there he was, exhausted.

    That is when Gretzky and Messier realized the New York Islanders weren’t super men. They just worked harder, gave more, committed more completely. Wayne and Mark knew what they had to do if they wanted to win the Stanley Cup.

    You could say that the fateful day Jimmy The Genius Devellano flew to Houston to interview the Pitcher, John Tonelli he launched not one dynasty but two.

    Side note: Jimmy has a bit of swagger and it used to be much more pronounced. After picking Al Arbor to coach the Islanders and drafting Potvin, Bossy, Trottier, Tonelli and the rest Jimmy became a bit insufferable which is when his friends started calling him The Genius. Reading his book you realize time gave him some perspective. But the nickname is still in use.

  122. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: Even moreso if the Sea Dogs are going to be devoid of offensive help like they were last year.

    He did well even despite that situation. It was very reminiscent of the Bouchard situation. They don’t have a Boqvist or Tkachuk coming over, but it still is a good club with a history of good development of NHL players.

    Maybe they trade him to Rimouski, Halifax, Titan, or Armada, though, and salve those worries?

  123. rickithebear says:

    OilClog:
    Lucic is more of an Everest, even with Mcdavid we’re all fucked on this bitch.

    Hockey goon .7M to 1.25M
    It still has market value.
    this free agency it would not be unfair to give it 1.75 to 2M

    16-17
    Top 30 F 28g 39A 62P 6.3M
    Top 60 F 23g 34A 55P 5.5M
    Top 90 F 20g 29A 50P 4.6M
    Top 120 F 18G 24A 44P 4.0M
    Lucic 6M 23G 50p
    In a Goal scorer role 5.5 + 1.25M = 6.75M

    17-18
    Top 30 F 31g 46A 75pm6.7M
    Top 60 F 25g 36A 61p 5.75M
    Top 90 F 22g 31A 52p 5.0M
    Top 120 F 19g 26a 46p 4.25M
    Top 150 F 16g 22a 40p 3.5M
    Top 180 F 14g 20a 34p 2.75M
    Top 210 F 13g 17a 30p 2.0m
    Top 240 F 11g 14a 26p 1.4m
    Top 270 F 10g 12a 22p 1.0m
    Lucic 6M 10G 24a 34a
    In a set-up/points role 3.25M + 1.25M = 4.5M -1.5M

    In 2 seasons of goon + goal scorer or set-up role
    we are .75M short of contract Value.

    He has 1 bad SH% year for every 4.
    Bounce back is usually 16+%.
    Career average is 13.7%
    Average 148 sh per season as an Oiler.
    Averaged 26a which is top 120

    Current 18-19 Fwd values.
    Top 30 6.8m
    Top 60 5.9m
    Top 90 5.3m
    Top 120 4.0m
    Top 150/3.4m
    Top 180 3.0m

    Do goalies adjust to equipment change and have GAA rate go down from 2.73
    Do coaches dump chasing Corsi resiulting in HD abandonment and a large % of GAA jump.

    I cannot see an increase in GAA.
    17-18 is the Max numbers I would expect.

    Current free agent market reset goon value.
    This year Lucic starts with 2.0 of goon value.
    We need 4.75M of goal scorer or set -up man to have received 18m of contract value in his first 3 years.

  124. Todd Macallan says:

    VOR,

    Peter Gzowski, is that you?

  125. Bag of Pucks says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    godot10,

    Could you recommend some reading on The Great Game?

    You may find this interesting:

    https://www.amazon.com/House-War-Pentagon-Disastrous-American-ebook/product-reviews/B009UQ7MK6/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_show_all_btm?ie=UTF8&reviewerType=all_reviews

    It’s a fascinating insiders account of how American foreign policy works at the behest of their military brass, and how what we perceive as American hegemony is actually a carefully orchestrated strategy of global destabilization designed to justify the insane human and capital costs of the military industrial complex.

  126. Numenius says:

    Professor Q:
    godot10,

    I personally blame the Roman Empire.

    The Persian Empire they took over had centuries of unity, peace, and prosperity, and they ruined that for millennia since.

    I suspect your comment is a joke.

    But just to clarify: Rome didn’t take over the Persian Empire.

    There was a long history of conflict between them, but it was the Arab Muslims who finally took over the Persians in the 7th century.

  127. Professor Q says:

    Numenius: I suspect your comment is a joke.

    But just to clarify: Rome didn’t take over the Persian Empire.

    There was a long history of conflict between them, but it was the Arab Muslims who finally took over the Persians in the 7th century.

    A bit of a joke, yes, to help lighten the mood. I was imagining the Monty Python “what have the Romans ever done for us?!” skit. Not overly serious.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=djZkTnJnLR0

    To clarify again though, not the whole Empire, no, and loads of conflicts, yes, and power shifts. And yes, the Arabians eventually took a lot of land from both (Or all three if you count West and East Rome separate). Helping end them all.

    Rome still had Greece, the Byzantine Empire, Roman Judea, and Northern Africa, all post-Persian control.

  128. rickithebear says:

    godot10: Trump: ” Are you not entertained? ”

    Side: Who would have thought. A wealthy member of the elite who inherited his money would not be fighting for the little guy and instead, is using his platform to further his own interests and his wealthy buddies interests.

    Did not see that coming.

    Who would have thought. An adult welfare member of the expectant catered who inherited thier money would not be fighting for the little tax paying guy and instead, is using thier platform to further thier own and other first world problem buddies interests will not seeking a job.

    Generations of children set up in “hopeful future” genocide by lazy selfish parents.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    stephen sheps: On the other hand – top line minutes if that’s the case… hmmm, now I’m torn. In any case, up arrows for the player, and it’s great to have options like this for a change.

    I would presume that, in his draft plus 2 year, he will be getting top line minutes in any event (if returned to the Q) – I agree, there is something to say for “being the man”, however, if its like it was after Valeno was traded last year, I think that far outweighs the top dog benefit.

    The Oilers could try and pressure a trade (like they did with Drai) however I’m guessing the organization doesn’t have as much clout with Q teams as they do with the Dub (just a guess).

    At the end of the day, I would think this determination would be made after evaluating him at camp – if he’s not ready for pro hockey against men then I don’t think it would be a good idea for him to be in the AHL, potentially with low minutes, bottom 6, etc.

    I have no idea if his game is ready but, as I said earlier, from seeing his social media posts, he is very much a teenager.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: He did well even despite that situation. It was very reminiscent of the Bouchard situation. They don’t have a Boqvist or Tkachuk coming over, but it still is a good club with a history of good development of NHL players.

    Maybe they trade him to Rimouski, Halifax, Titan, or Armada, though, and salve those worries?

    He did alright for sure but his scoring rates were down, they were playing him at center, etc. (as opposed to Bouchard who’s scoring rates actually went up after the divested).

    Yes, a trade would be great – I don’t know if the Q teams give a crap about what the Oilers want them to do (like the WHL teams do).

  131. stevebergeron97 says:

    http://www.hokej.cz/tv/hokejka/video/4942?autostart=true

    Link to the highlights from the U20 game today between the Czech’s and Switzerland. Safin with a rocket.

  132. Jaxon says:

    VOR,

    Loved this story. I was an Islander fan back when they won their first Cup. Your hockey mysteries have a very Paul Harvey-esque The Rest of the Story vibe to them. Looking forward to your next one.

  133. northerndancer says:

    Bag of Pucks: You may find this interesting:

    https://www.amazon.com/House-War-Pentagon-Disastrous-American-ebook/product-reviews/B009UQ7MK6/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_show_all_btm?ie=UTF8&reviewerType=all_reviews

    It’s a fascinating insiders account of how American foreign policy works at the behest of their military brass, and how what we perceive as American hegemony is actually a carefully orchestrated strategy of global destabilization designed to justify the insane human and capital costs of the military industrial complex.

    Great post. Whether orchestrated or ‘merely’ economic incentive, can be argued while watching a game well into garbage time. (token hockey reference so my post doesn’t get punted, token football reference so readers will think I have wider perspectives and some vague but highly dubious cleverness).

    But it is much easier to argue spending almost a trilliion dollars per year to replace aging and worn out tanks, planes ships etc than it is to try to justify another nuke or 1000 to add to the stockpile when your cold war enemy has packed up the red star and is now trying to sell their own version of the American dream. This way you get to sell to all sides in the conflict, too! A fine strategy honed over the decades.

    For the antiquarian book lovers, pick up Merchants of Death. Follow the money. “And they call it democracy”, (musical reference added for cultural continuity)

  134. godot10 says:

    VOR:
    I am going to tell the story of the Pitcher.

    It is probably my favorite scouting story.

    It starts with an Ambidextrous pitcher. By the time he turned 14 he had thrown four one hitters. Two with each arm. At 15 he threw a perfect game. For scouts the trip to Milton became a pilgrimage. They left drooling.

    The Pitcher could hit, he could field. He was the full meal deal. A big man he was lightening on the base bath. And he could field.

    He was also a multi-sport jock. The Pitcher holds basketball records to this day. And of course he played hockey.

    For whatever reason the Pitcher with a shining career ahead of him choose hockey, the sport he was least good at.

    It would be fair to say the Pitcher as a hockey player underwhelmed.

    Oh all the tools were there. He could skate like the wind or at least like a runaway freight train on a steep downhill grade. Today we’d say he had a plus shot. Legend has it given time to windup he could put it through plexiglass. The Pitcher llived to hit people and would drop the gloves with anyone. But he wasn’t a goon. Nope, he had soft, soft hands, and was able to thread the puck through the eye of the needle, a skill he attributed to being able to switch hands creating odd angles and passing lanes.

    The sum was a lot less than the total of the parts. There were serious consistency problems. And there was a giant attitude problem. Entitlement doesn’t come close to being strong enough to describe the Pitcher’s behaviour. He ended up in court suing his Junior Team.

    By the time his draft eligible year rolled around the Pitcher was labouring in obscurity out on the outer edge of the hockey world. So complete was his exile that not a single scout saw him play a game the entire year. But one scout did come to see him.

    For now we are just going to call the scout in question the Genius.

    And this is where the story becomes part of the folklore of hockey. The Genius had seen the Pitcher pitch. And watching him pitch the Genius had concluded the kid didn’t know the meaning of the word quit. The Genius wanted to add some one with, as he put it years later, “insane intensity” to the generational talent he’d drafted and the stunning supporting cast he was building.

    But the Genius did his homework. He met with the Pitcher for hours over multiple days. He trained with him. He took him out for super. He talked to the kid’s coaches and trainers and doctors. That last one is important.

    You see the stories the Genius had heard turned out to be true. The kid cared so much, got so amped up before games he gave himself migraine headaches. The Genius was assured that with the right drugs, with meditation, with psychotherapy, and with coaches constantly telling him to back the fuck off the gas pedal the problem was manageable.

    And so, in full awareness that he was passing up Hall of Fame talents the Genius took the Pitcher in the 2nd round of the draft. The GM didn’t want the Pitcher, the Coach hated the idea of him but the Genius had the courage of his convictions. The GM deferred to his Director of Player Development (that was the scout’s job title at the time) because he’d come to realize the Genius knew people, he could see into their soul. So complete was the GM’s faith in his protege he let the Genius make personnel decisions. The coach deferred because the GM had given the Genius serious input into picking the Coach. So the coach owed the Genius.

    It was a few weeks into the following season when the stories started to hit the press. They were about a rookie who cared so much he was there before the arena opened and was still there until security escorted him out. They finally gave him a key. Then they caught him driving the Zamboni. The press soon learned that he was in constant conflict with the coaching staff who were trying to get him to “ease the hell up.”

    The team’s iconic leader would say later, “At first we thought he was mentally ill. Well some of the team thought he was coked up or a speed freak. We all knew there was no way anybody could play an entire season at that pace.

    “But it was what he did on the ice that changed our minds. All the times we thought we were playing our hearts out but we didn’t get the breaks and hung our heads and quit. And then Greasy would do his thing and bail us out. Gradually we realized he wasn’t drugged or crazy, we just weren’t trying hard enough. So we tried harder, we came up to his level. And then he raised the level. Year after year he raised the level.”

    And this story will all make sense when I tell another story. Years ago two young friends despondent after losing the Stanley Cup Final, well being humiliated in the Stanley Cup Final happened to walk by the victorious team’s dressing room. They expected a wild party. Not to hear Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier tell it. What they saw was a team so weary they couldn’t even work up the energy to shower. Most were wrapped in ice. Others wore slings and wraps. The player they hated the most laid on a bench unable to move. Around the league that prick was known as the Greasy Jet and no Oiler wanted to be on the same ice wth him. And there he was, exhausted.

    That is when Gretzky and Messier realized the New York Islanders weren’t super men. They just worked harder, gave more, committed more completely. Wayne and Mark knew what they had to do if they wanted to win the Stanley Cup.

    You could say that the fateful day Jimmy The Genius Devellano flew to Houston to interview the Pitcher, John Tonelli he launched not one dynasty but two.

    Side note: Jimmy has a bit of swagger and it used to be much more pronounced. After picking Al Arbor to coach the Islanders and drafting Potvin, Bossy, Trottier, Tonelli and the rest Jimmy became a bit insufferable which is when his friends started calling him The Genius. Reading his book you realize time gave him some perspective. But the nickname is still in use.

    These stories are great but there is a tall tale aspect to some of the details. Tonelli went to the WHA as an underager to the Houston Aeros, a WHA powerhouse with the Howes, Terry Ruskowski, and Morris Lukowich, and had two solid seasons there, before he was drafted by the Islanders. Next to Gretzky, he was one of the most impressive underager to play in the league. It wasn’t exactly nowheresville. The Islanders drafted him early in 2ND round when he was still under contract with Houston, and it was uncertain when they would be able to get him. Otherwise he probably would have been drafted in the 1St round. Fortunately for the Islanders, the merger happened a year later and Houston folded, and the Islanders got their player.

  135. Oil2Oilers says:

    If, as seems likely, Lucic is not moved this summer I predict the following as the exit;

    Expansion Seattle takes on the Lucic contract in order for the Oilers leave unprotected/trade for local boy Yamamoto. Lucic waves his no move clause because he can commute to Seattle from the Lower Mainland.

    Some development luck in the form of recent second round + draft picks will be needed to fill the holes on the wings. Holes we a currently worried about filling with first round picks.

  136. northerndancer says:

    godot10: These stories are great but there is a tall tale aspect to some of the details. Tonelli went to the WHA as an underager to the Houston Aeros, a WHA powerhouse with the Howes, Terry Ruskowski, and Morris Lukowich, and had two solid seasons there, before he was drafted by the Islanders.Next to Gretzky, he was one of the most impressive underager to play in the league.It wasn’t exactly nowheresville.The Islanders drafted him early in 2ND round when he was still under contract with Houston, and it was uncertain when they would be able to get him. Otherwise he probably would have been drafted in the 1St round.Fortunately for the Islanders, the merger happened a year later and Houston folded, and the Islanders got their player.

    Jaxon:
    VOR,

    Loved this story. I was an Islander fan back when they won their first Cup. Your hockey mysteries have a very Paul Harvey-esque The Rest of the Story vibe to them. Looking forward to your next one.

    Yah. Thanks for this and your other tales. Well told. Well shared.

  137. Jaxon says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    If, as seems likely, Lucic is not moved this summer I predict the following as the exit;

    Expansion Seattle takes on the Lucic contract in order for the Oilers leave unprotected/trade for local boy Yamamoto. Lucic waves his no move clause because he can commute to Seattle from the Lower Mainland.

    Some development luck in the form of recent second round + draft picks will be needed to fill the holes on the wings. Holes we a currently worried about filling with first round picks.

    Yamamoto won’t need to be protected. Only players who played 10 pro games or more last season will need to be protected.

  138. pts2pndr says:

    stephen sheps: Yeah, that’s a fair point, the one about moving around too often as a potential detriment to development. But that’s also exactly why I think moving him to the A now makes the most sense – get him more integrated into the pro systems and work on his game with other potential future teammates. If the AHL team is going to be the development pipeline I think we all want it to be and a solid B prospect with upside (can’t teach size!) has the opportunity to get a head start on pro development, a smart organization would take advantage of such things. I certainly see the advantages of keeping him in the Q, but I think the pros of going to the A outweigh the cons.

    Only if they play him! This has not been the way of the past ie Pitlick. Sitting on the bench or upstairs gets the kids nowhere!

  139. jtblack says:

    SUNNY;

    “Each ‘limited’ player (most players) have to be used by the coach in ways that suit their game for them to be effective as best they can.”

    This is critical in all aspecrs of Life Business, Sports, Teaching, etc

    My biggest dissapointment in TMAC thru 3 years is that “I feel” he has mismanaged at least half the roster and has KEPT ppl in the wrong position(s) for waaaaay too long.

    Letestu
    Lucic
    Cagguila
    JP
    Russell
    Dadbot

    All examples of players that TMac keeps trying to force certain minutes or situations on and even when they struggle; he just keeps going back to it. PP & PK – only after posting the worst modern day %’s, by the time he decided to change tactics the season was sunk.

    Hoping with some different Assistants; and Todd accepting he has to be open to creative ideas; that THE COACHING STAFF can put ppl in situations whete they can succeed.

  140. v4ance says:

    VOR,

    Thank you VOR, that was a wonderful tale. 🙂

    *****

    A long long series of posts on Mental Floss (started in 2012!) highlights the path to World War One and with hindsight, we can see the seeds for our current situation growing out of these past events.

    Start from : https://mentalfloss.com/article/29723/world-war-i-centennial-councils-war
    and keep clicking “next installment”

    At the turn of the century we were going thru widespread change with industrialization changing the economy, moving a large percentage of workers from the farms to the cities. The war forced women to take up the jobs to free up more men for military duties which led to the successful suffage movements of the 1920. The widespread changes led to the rise of a number of strongmen from Stalin in Russia to Hitler in Germany.

    Currently we are also living thru another sea change of technologies. We’ve advanced thru the computer age, then the internet age and now into the start of AI. The amount of jobs lost or reconfigured will affect more of the population than at any time in history. Just looking at autonomous vehicles, there will be millions of jobs lost as people are replaced my AI guided fleets of vehicles. A small fraction of those people will be able to find other work but for the rest? That change is on the cusp of occurring in the next 10 years.

    Trump is a symptom but he’s also a con man of the highest degree. He didn’t create the chaos or the dysfunction but he’s definitely taking full advantage of it for his own gain.

    ***

    One factoid I ran across was historians have noted many times in the past that when wars occurred, they were usually preceeded by having a gender balance that was too tilted towards having an excess of males.

    Due to China’s one child policy and India’s paternalistic society, males have been selectively chosen more than females when applying reproductive technologies.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-men/?utm_term=.fc754443bf6d

    Just another scary thought for the future…

  141. Rebillled says:

    Justthestatsman,

    The best thing about the Croatian president are those pictures of her in a bikini.

    Sad i missed her getting rained on!

  142. Numenius says:

    Professor Q: I was imagining the Monty Python “what have the Romans ever done for us?!” skit. Not overly serious.

    Haha. That’s what I thought, but wasn’t quite sure. Hilarious sketch. 🙂

    Professor Q: And yes, the Arabians eventually took a lot of land from both (Or all three if you count West and East Rome separate). Helping end them all.

    Right, though to clarify yet again, it’s more accurate to say “Muslim” than “Arabian” (East Rome fell to Ottoman Turkish Muslims, not Arabs) and Muslims contributed less or not at all to the fall of the Western empire, depending on which version of the empire you mean. The Western empire proper ended in 476 before there were any Muslims. The Holy Roman Empire ended in 1806 thanks to Napoleon — there were definite Muslim contributions to its decline but quite a bit earlier on. As for the modern West, it’s still around now, which admittedly not an insignificant population of Muslims would love to change.

    (Apologies for the digression, all!)

  143. Munny says:

    stephen sheps: I can work with that. Trump (and ‘Trumpism’) is a symptom, not the cause, of a much larger institutional failure.

    Agreed. The institutional failure of striving for Utopia rather than preserving and furthering freedom of individuals.

    In fact it could be said that the much larger institutional failure was institutions becoming much larger.

  144. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Rebillled,

    This is fake news, unless she secretly wed Ice-T years ago and changed her name, etc:

    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/people.com/bodies/croatian-president-confused-for-coco-austin-in-old-bikini-photos/amp/

  145. jm363561 says:

    commonfan29,

    For him, life without struggle was a fate worse than death.
    ====
    He would have really enjoyed being an Oiler fan!

  146. Numenius says:

    stephen sheps: Methinks you’ve perhaps read too much Jordan Peterson, who hasn’t actually read enough of what he critiques, but that’s a different issue altogether.

    I know Dr. Godot can take care of himself, but I’d be wary of attributing the origin of his views about the connection between progressivism and totalitarianism (views which have a long history) to a contemporary popularizer.

  147. Rondo says:

    Munny,

    https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2018/07/16/trump-putin-press-conference-comedy-gold-as-american-journalists-beclown-themselves-in/

    “The problem with our media becoming a collective joke is that they have the ability to wreak tremendous havoc and do great damage. But these people are a laughingstock, and they do not know it”

  148. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide:
    So Polar: I’m hopeful the Oilers will be balanced by this time next year.

    You’ve had that balance photo for so long LT you should start looking now for someone to develop that 35mm film..:)

  149. Munny says:

    Rondo,

    I’m not a follower of Rush, but I have paid attention to the media outbursts after the meeting today, getting pretty much what I expected. IE one pissed off military-industrial complex.

    Sad world.

    A world desperate for another Seymour Hersh and instead we get a parade of William Randolph Hearsts.

  150. treevojo says:

    Rondo:
    Munny,

    https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2018/07/16/trump-putin-press-conference-comedy-gold-as-american-journalists-beclown-themselves-in/

    “The problem with our media becoming a collective joke is that they have the ability to wreak tremendous havoc and do great damage. But these people are a laughingstock, and they do not know it”

    Easy. I’m a supporter.

  151. Rondo says:

    Munny,

    Nor am I a follower of Rush, just thought he was spot on.

  152. RonnieB says:

    Rondo:
    Munny,

    Nor am I a follower of Rush, just thought he was spot on.

    Considering that even some Trump sycophants at Fox News and the right wing website “The Hill” crapped all over Trump for his performance today, you can probably consider yourself to be in the minority.

  153. Bos8 says:

    Rush Limbaugh – the shock jock who flunked ESPN is quoted? Next, we’ll ask Skip Bayless his opinion on the matter.

    How did the American system allow a Trump – Clinton matchup. Whoever came to power heralded a failure. The “Men of Good Will and Reason” abrogated their responsibility.

  154. ashley says:

    Sekera has been a disappointing FA signing. I’m not sure why he gets so much love. He does not play D very well, and maybe never has. This team badly needs D that play D.

    I don’t think we can continue to make excuses for him because of ACL reconstruction. That should have been well behind him when he got on the ice this past year. What you see is what he is and always has been.

    He has value, to be sure, but is overpaid by about 2.5 million. I would be happy with him as a third pairing Dman making 2.5 million.

  155. JimmyV1965 says:

    ashley:
    Sekera has been a disappointing FA signing.I’m not sure why he gets so much love.He does not play D very well, and maybe never has.This team badly needs D that play D.

    I don’t think we can continue to make excuses for him because of ACL reconstruction.That should have been well behind him when he got on the ice this past year.What you see is what he is and always has been.

    He has value, to be sure, but is overpaid by about 2.5 million.I would be happy with him as a third pairing Dman making 2.5 million.

    I think he actually had a brace on when he returned last year.

  156. Richard S.S. says:

    Andrej Sekera had to be the Oilers’ #1 Defenseman the day he was hired because the rest of the D was not competent to be even 2nd Pairing. That was not as bad as it could have been – he’s not a #1 D, but that year he was underpaid. Andrej Sekera was the Oilers’ best Defenseman their playoff year, despite the growth of the D – once again underpaid. All athletes come back to early from injury – all. Results vary, but seldom 100% normal that season.

    People who diss injured athletes – are they trolls or just a fanitic? People forget the Season was basically done when he returned.

  157. Richard S.S. says:

    Note: a fanitic is a half-baked fanatic.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    ashley:
    Sekera has been a disappointing FA signing.I’m not sure why he gets so much love.He does not play D very well, and maybe never has.This team badly needs D that play D.

    I don’t think we can continue to make excuses for him because of ACL reconstruction.That should have been well behind him when he got on the ice this past year.What you see is what he is and always has been.

    He has value, to be sure, but is overpaid by about 2.5 million.I would be happy with him as a third pairing Dman making 2.5 million.

    I vigorously disagree with all three paragraphs here.

  159. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: The news is out all over town: Youth will be served
    https://theathletic.com/433827/2018/07/17/the-news-is-out-all-over-town-youth-shall-be-served-for-the-oilers/

  160. Wilde says:

    Has the Vaclav Burda news hit here yet…?

  161. PennersPancakes says:

    Wilde,

    I hadn’t heard anything Burda until your post. That’s awful news and a reminder how dangerous driving can be, my condolences to his family.

    Don’t always hear about scout hirings/behind the scenes staff but he was a hire I was honestly excited for. The Senators made a lot of good Euro picks while he was with them, he seemed like one of the gooders. Rest in peace.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pulock signed a 2-year bridge this morning – will be interesting to see the AAV.

  163. Wilde says:

    PennersPancakes,

    I was too. Just awful, tragic news… life is so precious.

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