Shoot the Gap

Josh Currie signed a two-year NHL contract yesterday, it’s easily one of my favourite stories of summer. Edmonton will rely on him to play at his established level for the Condors, and Currie pushes a growing career forward in a significant way. Will he play in the NHL? Mark Arcobello was in just this spot in about 2012 and he played 139 NHL games. Currie is pushing, and fans are cheering him. Great story.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift or get it yourself and join the fun! Offer is here, less than $4 a month! I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s a pure pleasure to visit. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge.

50-MAN LIST

  • We’re still nowhere close to full, the Oilers are (at the outer marker) 47 contracts deep, assuming both Evan Bouchard and Ostap Safin turn pro.
  • Josh Currie may not play in the NHL this coming season, or ever. The fact he landed an NHL contract is a big damned deal. Mark Arcobello got one, Charles Linglet had his contract purchased for a five-game run in April 2010. I do not recall another AHL contract getting an NHL deal this century. If you remember one, please let me know.
  • Darnell Nurse is the last outstanding contract.
  • This is not meant as a pure depth chart or an attempt to post lines and pairings. I am aware that Tobias Rieder can (and may well) play right wing and that Pontus Aberg is unlikely to have first lash at No. 2 right wing.

NHLE FOR SIGNED CONDORS FORWARDS

  • This is Eric Rodgers terrific work I published the other day, Currie has the best EV goal differential and a solid NHLE. He’s a righty center and I think he might be the most skilled pivot ticketed for Bakersfield. He was JP’s center, maybe Currie will also fill the same role for Kailer Yamamoto.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER FORWARDS 2017-18

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl faced tough opposition through the season (Rattie joined 97 and Nuge late, and as you can see the possession results had some wobble), with a large group of forwards placing a combination of second and third line opposition (most Oilers forwards in blue or heading that way). Zack Kassian faced the tough zone starts and the easier opposition, Jujhar Khaira between third and fourth line. Jesse Puljujarvi didn’t get a zone-start push, interesting.

The only downbeat colors are Kassian (drastic zone start), Iiro Pakarinen (fringe NHLer) and Drake Caggiula (he was a drag on his linemates). Ryan Strome was in a very sweet spot, you’d like to see more offense from the soft parade.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER BLUE 2017-18

Vollman has Adam Larsson in the toughest quadrant available, with Darnell Nurse not far away (and Oscar Klefbom an hour’s drive). This graph really shows how far Andrej Sekera fell in terms of usage. That’s a continent. Kris Russell’s bubble color is the same as Caggiula’s, I’d like to see Matt Benning trade places with the veteran this coming season.

CONGRATS, ORIGINAL POUZAR!

I’m not a bragging type, or at least try not to be. I am proud of the fine group of people who have visited this site, developed opinions and refined defense of same, and then moved on to write about the things that are important to all of us. From the base reaction of “someone is wrong on the internet!” to some brilliant analytics work and lovely prose, I can review this blog’s back pages and see many fabulous beginnings. I take pride in that, not in the work because that’s from the authors, but in creating an environment (not the only one, but one that welcomes weary travelers) that helps the river run out to the sea. Congratulations to Original Pouzar!

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144 Responses to "Shoot the Gap"

  1. 36 percent body fat says:

    thought of a great trivia question

    Corey Perry and Scott Niedemeyer have pretty much won everything at every level.

    At the Junior level they both won a memorial cup and mvp, as well as world junior gold.

    They both have won a world cup, stanley cup, world championship and olympic gold.

    They have both won major trophies.

    Niedermeyer won the norris and smythe, and perry the hart and richard

    So the question is, what trophy other than the norris and smythe has niedermeyer won that perry hasnt?

  2. 36 percent body fat says:

    @lowetide

    He lowetide, i read your article at the athletic (keep em coming) about the developmental league. Why does the nhl no just push the draft age back 1 year. Over 4 years you move it back 3 months at a time. This would drive up the average age of the CHL (making it better for development, a better league, drafting would be more accurate), which i beilieve would also push back peak years in the nhl. I kind of find it sad that a lot of good players are peaking at 24 25 instead of 27-28 (the elite players will)

    If every team ha a franchise player based on quality drafting that continued to grown for half their career the league would be better, and the fan base would grow.

  3. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    36 percent body fat,

    Conn Smythe!

    Ducks cup run when Perry was still a youngin

  4. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I go to this site called oilerhockey.com: its simply an aggregation of all Oiler news: it’s very helpful

    – This morning, I clicked on the newest article link: and there is OP’s first piece

    – You really have a lot to be proud of LT with this community and all it fosters…

    – And cheers OP: as busy as you are to craft that up well done..

  5. 36 percent body fat says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    shoot thats right, but their is one more, i will need to edit.

  6. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    36 percent body fat,

    – One other glitch in the system is the college players like Quinn have the option to go back to college or play in the AHL, while Bouchard does not have that option: NHL or Junior

  7. Lowetide says:

    36 percent body fat:
    @lowetide

    He lowetide, i read your article at the athletic (keep em coming) about the developmental league.Why does the nhl no just push the draft age back 1 year.Over 4 years you move it back 3 months at a time.This would drive up the average age of the CHL (making it better for development, a better league, drafting would be more accurate), which i beilieve would also push back peak years in the nhl.I kind of find it sad that a lot of good players are peaking at 24 25 instead of 27-28 (the elite players will)

    If every team ha a franchise player based on quality drafting that continued to grown for half their career the league would be better, and the fan base would grow.

    They could do that for sure but nature being what it is I still think you’d have Jujhar Khaira just penalty killing in year one. Kids have to play and the AHL’s taxi squad guarantees they’ll sit.

  8. Side says:

    Who’s going to make the first 5 posts on LT’s articles now that OP is slacking?!

  9. Jaxon says:

    Congrats Original Pouzar! I hope you keep contributing here as well, but understand if you don’t have as much time. I’ll have to get back into CopperNBlue again. I haven’t visited as much in the past few years going back to the Derek Zona days.

  10. Bag of Pucks says:

    What’s the chances Nurse’s agent uses the Vollman Sledgehammer now in his negotiations with Chia?

    Thanks a lot LT! ; )

  11. oilman says:

    36 percent body fat,

    I’m going to guess it’s the Prince of Whales trophy if you are just referring to NHL awards.

  12. Bag of Pucks says:

    The thing I love about a visual data representation like the Vollman is how easily it leads the mind to interesting questions.

    For example, the impact of Zone Starts on REL Corsi.

    Comparing Aberg to Caggiula, you find yourself saying Aberg appears to drive more offense, but of course he should given where he’s starting most of the time.

    You also gain a newfound appreciation for a player like JP who looks encouraging given the QoC he’s facing. Meanwhile Khaira looked great by the eye test last year, but despite similar ZSs to JP and easier Comp, that bubble colour is nowhere close to baby blue.

    Another thing that stands out is the lack of a dominant two way C to populate that upper left quadrant ala Larsson on the D side. A Guy Carbonneau or John Madden type would look great on this roster.

  13. Jordan says:

    Side:
    Who’s going to make the first 5 posts on LT’s articles now that OP is slacking?!

    To the best of my knowledge, we will all have to step up to help fill the void that OP will leave by writing more elsewhere.

    ———————————————

    LT, I think you might need a new slogan for your web page. May I suggest:

    “Lowetide’s – the development league for hockey analytics and sports reporters since 2004”

    ———————————————-

    OP, congratulations on your gig – hope it turns out well for you, and we still get to see you here sometimes. =)

    ———————————————-

    VOR, read through your comments and feedback at the end of last night thread this morning. Greatly appreciate your expertise and your clear prose explaining the details of that knowledge. Very cool to learn about the different mechanics that go into performance.

    ———————————————–

    Really surprised by how bad RNH’s bubble colour is. Is that connected with being a 50% guy most of the year, and then the super wonky results with Rattie / CMD in the last 20 games where their % tanked, but their goal share was like 70%?

  14. 36 percent body fat says:

    oilman,

    Good Job!

  15. dulock says:

    LT Brett Clark went from an AHL deal with the OKC Barons to an NHL deal with Minnesota but I’m pretty sure that’s not what you’re talking about. 😉

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-lose-farmhand-d-man-brett-clark-to-minnesota

  16. Richard S.S. says:

    Roster size varies from 20 as the absolute minimum permitted to 23 as the maximum permitted. Or at least that’s normally what applies. Bonus structures in ELCs can raise havoc with the Cap, because Team must be Cap Compliant (bonuses inclusive) by Game One. That being said, there appear to be an insurmountable problem poking it’s head out.

    Oilers have (buyout/bonuses inclusive) 21 Players signed. Neither Evan Bouchard nor Josh Currie are on the list. The 21 Players are signed for $76.983 Million with just $2.517 Million in Cap Space remaining and Darnell Nurse yet to sign. (Without bonuses considered there’s more, just under $5.0 Million left to sign him.). The Oilers cannot carry more then a 21 Player Roster into Game One. Whatever Darnell Nurse signs for over the $2.517 Million remaining, that amount must come off the Roster – and the corresponding Player.

    Someone might get traded before the Season starts. Someone may go onto LTIR. It’s still much too early to worry, but it is a consideration for the future.

  17. McSorley33 says:

    Excellent job Original Pouzar.

    Vollman Chart:

    Kris Russell…..is that bubble black?

  18. Professor Q says:

    36 percent body fat:
    thought of a great trivia question

    Corey Perry and Scott Niedemeyer have pretty much won everything at every level.

    At the Junior level they both won a memorial cup and mvp, as well as world junior gold.

    They both have won a world cup, stanley cup, world championship and olympic gold.

    They have both won major trophies.

    Niedermeyer won the norris and smythe, and perry the hart and richard

    So the question is, what trophy other than the norris and smythe has niedermeyer won that perry hasnt?

    Niedermayer was one of my favourite players growing up (even if the other one happened to be Kariya, and I wanted Kariya to win that Cup despite being a fan of New Jersey at the time).

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hockey/opinion/2013/11/all-scott-niedermayer-did-was-win-and-win-and-win-and-win.html

    Niedermayer also won a few Scholastic Players of the Year (a few Oilers have also), while Perry did not.

    He was on the All-Rookie Team, while Perry was not. Also was a WJC All-Star.

    I liked the comment about the Eastern Conference Championships! Witty. Unless Perry heads East for his twilight.

    Mind you, Perry has scoring titles over Niedermayer.

    If you count the Stafford Smythe, would they both have won it as the Memorial Cup MVP?

  19. frjohnk says:

    Congrats OP.

    Read the article. Totally agree that it would be a good move to have Strome in the top 6. He is our 4th best forward. I do think if 2 of KY, Rattie and JP knock it out of the park in the top 6 and/or the 3rd line center role can not be filled, Strome will not be in the top 6 but will be our 3rd line center.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow – thank you for the shout out LT – I did not expect that this morning.

    And thank you to the others that have sent congrats.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t imagine that Currie will ever play an NHL game for the Oilers but you never know and he’s earned that NHL contract driving the offence with little help over the last few years.

    I think he keeps the 1C job until someone like Marody earns it over him.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    That is an offensively unoffensive group of AHLers.

    Its going to be so nice to follow the Condors this year with real prospects with real offensive ability (and more coming in the next few years – Maksimov, McLeod, Samorukov, Berglund, etc.).

  23. Professor Q says:

    Congratulations to Original Pouzar. I thoroughly enjoy your contributions and our interactions, and look forward to reading your work further!

  24. Oilman99 says:

    Side:
    Who’s going to make the first 5 posts on LT’s articles now that OP is slacking?!

    Brad Malone may get some slack now.

  25. LadiesloveSmid says:

    How is it Platzer scores at a 2nd line rate and only plays 11 minutes/night? Of course they are developing Grayson Downing & Brad Malone I suppose.

    Woodcroft better deploy youth over AHL experience or I won’t be excited for Yamamoto/Marody/Benson there this year or McLeod/Maksimov/Safin there next year.

  26. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Wonder if EDM signs Vincent Desharnais next summer. Would mean him, Samorukov, Berglund, and potentially Marino and Niemelainen(big ?) playing in Bako. Plus the possibility of Bouchard not being rushed in.

  27. Wilde says:

    Has anyone here dealt with/known someone who’s dealt with imposter syndrome?

  28. Mantis says:

    Congrats OP! I’ve been quietly enjoying your commentary across a wealth of sites for a long time now. I’ll have to get back in to CoppernBlue to check out your work.

    Great stuff!

  29. dannyboy says:

    Congrats OP I always enjoy ur posts. LT u have created something special. I thank you for allowing me to creep in the shadows all these years.

  30. 106 and 106 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    OP, I’ve really enjoyed your contributions and glad you get another forum to discuss – do we know, what’s with the name choice?

  31. Professor Q says:

    106 and 106:
    OriginalPouzar,

    OP, I’ve really enjoyed your contributions and glad you get another forum to discuss – do we know, what’s with the name choice?

    I was hoping for a The Offspring wordplay!

    Dah dah dah dah…Original Pouzar!

    However I think they explained it a while back, with the story, and then how they used to be Pouzar but had a nickname change and another user grabbed Pouzar up, so they had to settle for OP.

    Lowetide changed settings to prevent the changing of names I think, too, because of this (along with it being difficult)?

    Maybe my memory is going, however. More likely.

  32. Regretzky says:

    I guess there will be a little less ‘Material’ in the comments section! Congrats OP.

  33. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Not a fair fight, but Scott Niedermayer is in the Hockey Hall of Fame while Corey Perry is not. Yet.

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Jordan: Really surprised by how bad RNH’s bubble colour is. Is that connected with being a 50% guy most of the year, and then the super wonky results with Rattie / CMD in the last 20 games where their % tanked, but their goal share was like 70%?

    It’s particularly notable compared to the reviled Milan Lucic, whose placement on the XY axis was very similar while his bubble was much.much blue-er. Puts the old saying “possession is nine-tenths of the law” to the test.

  35. pts2pndr says:

    Congrat OP! I enjoy your positive outlook and enjoy your posts!

  36. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: They could do that for sure but nature being what it is I still think you’d have Jujhar Khaira just penalty killing in year one. Kids have to play and the AHL’s taxi squad guarantees they’ll sit.

    I believe that the draft age was lowered due to a charter of rights clause and possible legal challenge. Oiler management has to stipulate player development as first priority over winning record when hiring the head coach and or put in a bonus structure for players graduating to the NHL! I think the incentive idea would serve the franchise the best!

  37. Melvis says:

    Corey Perry is one of those Ducks you just love to hate. Yet, in international play, I’m always rooting for him.

    Almost an Oiler, and if he had been, I’d still be wearing the jersey. Just another one of those KLowe screwups. Comrie for Perry and a first round pick almost happened, if anybody remembers.

    So Comrie went to Philly for, I dunno, Curly, Moe, and Larry.

  38. Doug McLachlan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Congratulations on the article, looking forward to more.

    Like you I am intrigued by the idea of putting Strome in a top 6 role (man if he could hit the twine a few times…).

    So as one of the commenters indicated over at Copper & Blue, what would your lines be as promoting Strome creates a significant gap at 3C?

  39. Doug McLachlan says:

    BTW does the Marody signing suggest that Gryba’s buy-out was more than doing Eric a solid in terms of opening up a slot on the 50-man roster?

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It’s particularly notable compared to the reviled Milan Lucic, whose placement on the XY axis was very similar while his bubble was much.much blue-er. Puts the old saying “possession is nine-tenths of the law” to the test.

    If RNH were 5 years older, scored 34P stapled to 97, and had 5 more years on his deal, you better believe people would be on his case. RNH scored more than 1 after Christmas with primo minutes

  41. OmJo says:

    Congrats OP! You’ve made a material contribution here and no doubt will do the same over at Copper & Blue! Gonna have to bookmark it again and start checking out your stuff over there.

  42. Todd Macallan says:

    Congrats OP, couldnt happen to a nice poster. Looking forward to seeing some optimism infused over at CnB!

  43. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: If RNH were 5 years older, scored 34P stapled to 97, and had 5 more years on his deal, you better believe people would be on his case. RNH scored more than 1 after Christmas with primo minutes

    “stapled to 97” = 420 5v5 minutes with, 690 without = 38% with. (RNH played 24% of his minutes with McD, so substantially less but not exactly 1:0.)

    However, this is aside from my point about possession, which is what the bubble shows, not scoring. A reality of the Vollman Sledgehammer it it’s much more about deployment (Qual Comp / ZoneStart / TOI) than results (Corsi Rel in this case), just a single outcome being measured vs. three separate inputs.

    My own take is I’m glad to see the larger conversation veering towards a combination of CF% and GF% rather than fixating on Corsi. Progress is being made.

  44. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Btw, let me add my congrats to Original Pouzar for taking on my old gig of resident optimist at C&B. 🙂 I enjoyed your first post.

  45. rickithebear says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The thing I love about a visual data representation like the Vollman is how easily it leads the mind to interesting questions.

    For example, the impact of Zone Starts on REL Corsi.

    Comparing Aberg to Caggiula, you find yourself saying Aberg appears to drive more offense, but of course he should given where he’s starting most of the time.

    You also gain a newfound appreciation for a player like JP who looks encouraging given the QoC he’s facing. Meanwhile Khaira looked great by the eye test last year, but despite similar ZSs to JP and easier Comp, that bubble colour is nowhere close to baby blue.

    Another thing that stands out is the lack of a dominant two way C to populate that upper left quadrant ala Larsson on the D side.A Guy Carbonneau or John Madden type would look great on this roster.

    Listen to Brodziak interview. He will expects to soften the DZ and comp for others.

  46. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – this leonard trade to the raptors is exposing a nasty side to professional sport imo

    – dude only wants to play for the lakers. He’s representing he won’t report to the raptors

    – players have a lot of power in the league. I it’s better than the players getting ripped off by owners

    – what happens though is the continuing formation of a few super teams where the players plot to play on certain teams.

    – no way magic would ring up bird and be like :”let’s team up and dominate “

  47. 36 percent body fat says:

    Professor Q,

    Hey dont wreck my fun, LOL

    The scholistic player to me is an honour as it has nothing really to do with your on ice ability.

    The allstar nods are again honours and not major trophies.

  48. 36 percent body fat says:

    Professor Q,

    ya the genius is in the fact the Scotty had one both Wales and Clearance

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side:
    Who’s going to make the first 5 posts on LT’s articles now that OP is slacking?!

    I nominate you.

  50. Richard S.S. says:

    The Oilers don’t have problems at Center. Connor McDavid, the #1 Center is All World. Leon Draisaitl, the #2 Center is continually getting better. At need, he could also be the #1 C or #1W. Ryan Nugent- Hopkins, #1LW is definitely a top four talent. At need, he could also be #1 C or #2 C or #1 LW or #2 LW..

    Ryan Strome, the #3 Center is getting better, more a Center than a Winger. Kyle Brodziak, the #4 Center is experienced quality. At need, he could also be the #3 C or #4 RW. Jujhar Khaira, the #3 RW is a developing talent. At need, he could also be the #4 C or #4 LW.

    Why the desire to see a Center play wing? The fact that a needless hole is created seems counterproductive.

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The thing I love about a visual data representation like the Vollman is how easily it leads the mind to interesting questions.

    For example, the impact of Zone Starts on REL Corsi.

    Comparing Aberg to Caggiula, you find yourself saying Aberg appears to drive more offense, but of course he should given where he’s starting most of the time.

    You also gain a newfound appreciation for a player like JP who looks encouraging given the QoC he’s facing. Meanwhile Khaira looked great by the eye test last year, but despite similar ZSs to JP and easier Comp, that bubble colour is nowhere close to baby blue.

    Another thing that stands out is the lack of a dominant two way C to populate that upper left quadrant ala Larsson on the D side.A Guy Carbonneau or John Madden type would look great on this roster.

    While I still like the “Vollman Sledgehammer” there is a reason that you don’t see “zone starts” as a metric very much anymore (unless they are extreme)

    Its been found that they don’t actually matter much. (except in the extreme)

    Here’s a link to Matt Cane’s piece where he found out most zone starts are “earned” : https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

    Here is more good reading on it: https://www.nhlnumbers.com/2016/11/4/beware-of-what-zone-starts-are-telling-you-part-ii-shot-metrics

    Like I said earlier, I still like to see a map of zone starts for the team (like LT posted here) but know that a lot of those starts are earned and not at a shift change.

  52. Bruce McCurdy says:

    rickithebear: Listen to Brodziak interview. He will expects to soften the DZ and comp for others.

    If Brodziak were a bicycle racer he would be a domestique. Gotta have a couple of those even as they don’t always seem to measure up statistically.

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Professor Q,

    ya the genius is in the fact the Scotty had one both Wales and Clearance

    Clearance Clarence?

    Over Oveur

    What’s your vector Victor?

    Roger Roger

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    36 percent body fat:
    @lowetide

    He lowetide, i read your article at the athletic (keep em coming) about the developmental league.Why does the nhl no just push the draft age back 1 year.

    I think this is going to happen and fairly soon, likely as part of the next CBA.

    Ken King gave a talk at my office a few months back as part of a symposium I co-organized and was asked this question – he was absolutely in favor of it and was confident it was going to happen.

  55. Bank Shot says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It’s particularly notable compared to the reviled Milan Lucic, whose placement on the XY axis was very similar while his bubble was much.much blue-er. Puts the old saying “possession is nine-tenths of the law” to the test.

    RNH’s possession numbers have always been overlooked/excused by the Oilers analytics fans to some extent.

    He’s never been fantastic at corsi or scoring, but he’s always gotten a pass for it.

    Good player, but he’s been overpaid the first 4 years of his contract. Wish it would have been him for Jones instead of Hall for Larsson.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Another thing that stands out is the lack of a dominant two way C to populate that upper left quadrant ala Larsson on the D side.A Guy Carbonneau or John Madden type would look great on this roster.

    I believe that was Ryan Nugent Hopkins in 2016/17 – 41% of his even strength minutes as a center against elites – I assume his zone starts – without looking, I’m assuming his zone starts weren’t on the right side of the chart.

  57. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – this leonard trade to the raptors is exposing a nasty side to professional sport imo

    – dude only wants to play for the lakers. He’s representing he won’t report to the raptors

    The latest I’ve read is indications that he will report?

    If he’s saying he won’t now, it’s an empty threat imo. The Raptors can fine him up to the entirety of his salary, Dude would be crazy to burn two years with two different teams. And if he did all that to architect a move to LA, I would think the Commish would need to step in at some point.

    Rap’s are all-in for next year and all they really lose is the extra year of Derozan while getting the 3rd best player in the deal with Danny Green.

    And if Leonard is one and done, that frees up a ton of cap for the Raps with 2020 looking like it will be a bounty on the FA market. Or the Raps can trade him to LA early in the year for more than what SA was likely to pay to LA given they’re divisional rivals.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: If Brodziak were a bicycle racer he would be a domestique. Gotta have a couple of those even as they don’t always seem to measure up statistically.

    Here’s why I’m very happy with the Brodziak signing:

    Letestu 17/18
    CF% On 48.7
    CF% Off 52.4

    GF% On 34.6 (!!)
    GF% Off 54.3

    HDSCF% On 45.1%
    HDSCF% Off 51.5%

    PDO 962

    Not a lot of good last year for Letestu.

    Brodziak 17/18
    CF% On 48.0
    CF% Off 53.0

    GF% On 56.7
    GF% Off 50.9

    HDSCF% On 49.6
    HDSCF% Off 54.4

    PDO 1013

    While PDO has no memory I think it was important for the 4th line to not be a black hole and Brodziak can still play and I’m not sure Letestu can.

    Here’s an important note for Brodziak’s numbers as well:

    With Chris Thorburn
    CF% 44.9
    GF% 25.0
    HDCF% 36.4

    Without Chris Thorburn
    CF% 48.9
    GF% 68.7
    HDCF 54.0%

    That’s the other thing with Letstu. While Thorburn was a drag on Brodziak, when I went to find the drag on Letestu it turned out he was the drag.

    Everyone was worse with him GF% wise than without him (except Russell…weird)

    The 4th line doesn’t matter much until they turn into a black hole.

    McLellan plays his 4th line a lot and its important to the Oilers that the 4th has NHL players.

    One last thing…

    Ran into this when looking at Letstu’s WOWY

    Matt Benning
    155min with Letestu 18.2% (!!) GF
    325min without Letestu 57.8% GF

    Crazy.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: RNH’s possession numbers have always been overlooked/excused by the Oilers analytics fans to some extent.

    He’s never been fantastic at corsi or scoring, but he’s always gotten a pass for it.

    Good player, but he’s been overpaid the first 4 years of his contract. Wish it would have been him for Jones instead of Hall for Larsson.

    This is true.

    When figuring out which of the Steve Austin’s drove play (by going through the WOWY with a fine tooth comb) it was always: Hall>>>>>>>>>Eberle>>>>RNH

    Pete sold them off in the wrong order.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Roster size varies from 20 as the absolute minimum permitted to 23 as the maximum permitted.Or at least that’s normally what applies.Bonus structures in ELCs can raise havoc with the Cap, because Team must be Cap Compliant (bonuses inclusive) by Game One.That being said, there appear to be an insurmountable problem poking it’s head out.

    Oilers have (buyout/bonuses inclusive) 21 Players signed. Neither Evan Bouchard nor Josh Currie are on the list.The 21 Players are signed for $76.983 Million with just $2.517 Million in Cap Space remaining and Darnell Nurse yet to sign.(Without bonuses considered there’s more, just under $5.0 Million left to sign him.). The Oilers cannot carry more then a 21 Player Roster into Game One.Whatever Darnell Nurse signs for over the $2.517 Million remaining, that amount must come off the Roster – and the corresponding Player.

    Someone might get traded before the Season starts.Someone may go onto LTIR.It’s still much too early to worry, but it is a consideration for the future.

    The team can go over the cap limit by 7.5% of the limit due to potential performance bonuses – that’s almost $6M – the Oilers should not have a problem being cap compliant due to the bonuses.

    If enough of them vest and we receive a cap penalty next year, chances are we have a successful season.

  61. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The two easy ZS% framing phrases I like are that over half of shift-starts are on the fly, and that the shot share adjustment is (almost) never more than 2%.

  62. VOR says:

    Wilde:
    Has anyone here dealt with/known someone who’s dealt with imposter syndrome?

    I assume you mean impostor syndrome.

    You can’t coach girls and women and not know a lot of sufferers.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    Congrats OP.

    Read the article.Totally agree that it would be a good move to have Strome in the top 6.He is our 4th best forward.I do think if 2 of KY, Rattie and JP knock it out of the park in the top 6 and/or the 3rd line center role can not be filled, Strome will not be in the top 6 but will be our 3rd line center.

    I agree – I don’t think the coaching staff will actually explore this option even though I think it should be explored (if a suitable option for 3C arises).

    It will be a more viable option when Maksimov graduates to our 1LW……..

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    How is it Platzer scores at a 2nd line rate and only plays 11 minutes/night? Of course they are developing Grayson Downing & Brad Malone I suppose.

    Woodcroft better deploy youth over AHL experience or I won’t be excited for Yamamoto/Marody/Benson there this year or McLeod/Maksimov/Safin there next year.

    I’m not sure Malone has much more developing to do in his 30s…….

    Agreed on the second point, absolutely, and I’m confident it will be the case.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mantis:
    Congrats OP!I’ve been quietly enjoying your commentary across a wealth of sites for a long time now.I’ll have to get back in to CoppernBlue to check out your work.

    Great stuff!

    Thanks – are you a SN/RATW member?

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    106 and 106:
    OriginalPouzar,

    OP, I’ve really enjoyed your contributions and glad you get another forum to discuss – do we know, what’s with the name choice?

    My very first initiation in to Oiler social media was the now defunct Community Forums boards on Sportsnet – I believe it was 2004 where I stumbled upon it. Without too much thought, I chose the name “Pouzar”, of course, a shout-out to the Jaroslav and his couple hundred games during the glory years. It wasn’t that I was a huge fan or anything but wanted to choose a user name/screen name of a player that was a bit obscure. I didn’t think for a second that I was going to become such an active poster.

    Anyways, when I finally joined this site after years of Lurking, of course, there already was (is) a Pouzar and, given I had been Pouzar for over a decade, I decided to add the “Original”. Now I’m OriginalPouzar on every Oiler related forum except Roughing After the Whistle (which is the current iteration of the defunct SN Community Forums).

  67. leadfarmer says:

    All i ask from 4th line players is kill penalties, score the odd goal, and dont get killed 5v5. Oh yeah and be cheap.

  68. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bruce McCurdy: “stapled to 97” = 420 5v5 minutes with, 690 without = 38% with. (RNH played 24% of his minutes with McD, so substantially less but not exactly 1:0.)

    However, this is aside from my point about possession, which is what the bubble shows, not scoring. A reality of the Vollman Sledgehammer it it’s much more about deployment (Qual Comp / ZoneStart / TOI) than results (Corsi Rel in this case), just a single outcome being measured vs. three separate inputs.

    My own take is I’m glad to see the larger conversation veering towards a combination of CF% and GF% rather than fixating on Corsi. Progress is being made.

    I should’ve said stapled to 97 & 29. His linemates much better than Lucic’s this past season.

    CF% means diddle if you can’t finish

  69. Wonder Llama says:

    Wilde:
    Has anyone here dealt with/known someone who’s dealt with imposter syndrome?

    Sure. As an academic it’s practically a llegal requirement.

    The transition from student to professor felt very odd. You llearn, llearn, llearn for years and years then suddenly people are meant to be llearning from you. I thought any day some prof from my dissertation committee would pop up and say “Sorry, just kidding, no Ph.D. for you, you fraud!”

    But llike the guy who was turned into a newt, eventually I got better.

    At some point you realize most of the world is putting on a bit of an eminence front.

    It’s also kinda creepy to realize that people in positions of power aren’t necessarily all that brilliant.

    But you try the best you can. The best you can is good enough.

  70. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Benning only play 480 mins 5v5 when Letestu was on the team?

  71. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure Malone has much more developing to do in his 30s…….

    Agreed on the second point, absolutely, and I’m confident it will be the case.

    Ya I was being facetious. The org has played AHL vets over prospects as long as I can remember. Like they’re telling the coaches they’ll get canned if they don’t make the playoffs (which they haven’t been anyway) so they sacrifice development for a winning farm team culture

  72. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like Brodziak as well, but it’s important to note that his most common linemates away from Thorburn were Berglund and Steen. He played second line for a stretch due to injuries.

    We are probably getting the 15 point Brodziak, not the 33 point guy, and that is fine as long as they saw off the play.

    Hopefully he meshes well with whoever we have on the 4th line.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Congratulations on the article, looking forward to more.

    Like you I am intrigued by the idea of putting Strome in a top 6 role (man if he could hit the twine a few times…).

    So as one of the commenters indicated over at Copper & Blue, what would your lines be as promoting Strome creates a significant gap at 3C?

    Yes, the issue with Strome in the top 6 is exactly that, the replacement 3C:

    Aberg/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Khaira/Drai/Strome
    Lucic/Nuge/Rieder
    Caggulia/Brodziak/Kassian

    OR

    Nuge/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Aberg/Drai/Strome
    Lucic/Khaira/Rieder
    Caggulia/Broziack Kassian

    OR

    Nuge/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Aberg/Drai/Strome
    Khaira/Brodziak/Rieder
    Lucic/XXXXX Kassian
    DRESS 8D and give extra ice to 29/97

    None are ideal I don’t think.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    BTW does the Marody signing suggest that Gryba’s buy-out was more than doing Eric a solid in terms of opening up a slot on the 50-man roster?

    There is tons of room on the 50 – in fact, we are likely looking for sign another couple to help out in Bakersfield.

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The two easy ZS% framing phrases I like are that over half of shift-starts are on the fly, and thatthe shot share adjustment is (almost) never more than 2%.

    Yup.

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Here’s the money shot in regards to Leonard should be try to avoid playing for the Raps:

    A player who withholds playing services called for by a Player Contract for more than thirty (30) days after the start of the last Season covered by his Player Contract shall be deemed not to have “complet[ed] his Player Contract by rendering the playing services called for thereunder.” Accordingly, such a player shall not be a Veteran Free Agent and shall not be entitled to negotiate or sign a Player Contract with any other professional basketball team unless and until the Team for which the player last played expressly agrees otherwise.

    In short, if he doesn’t play for the Raptors, he doesn’t become a free agent in a year’s time.

    Great summary on the situation here: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/unhappy-kawhi-leonard-really-sit-next-season-rather-reporting-raptors-212933174.html

  77. stephen sheps says:

    Wilde:
    Has anyone here dealt with/known someone who’s dealt with imposter syndrome?

    Nearly every academic I’ve worked with from grad school all the way through to the faculty level has at some point in time expressed feeling like an impostor. I feel it less in the classroom but at conferences or when trying to present my research to a group of people with tenure, (or hiring committees!) I definitely feel it. I happen to also have a bit of a theatre and performance background, which helps me to not show it, even when I’m terrified. Fake it till you make it is a real thing.

  78. Wilde says:

    You can often find WOWY drivers and drags indirectly when looking through counterintuitive zone-start phenomena.

    Like, say, a forward who starts much more often in the defensive zone than his teammates, yet has better shot shares than most of them.

    This is not often the case, and paints a flattering portrait of the player, at least transitionally.

    Take Nick Shore, a regular 4th liner with the Kings last year.

    Guy started 38.9% of his face-off shifts in the offensive zone. 22.6/60 in the DZ, 14.4/60 in the OZ.

    His CFRel% was +3.4%, 4th best regular on the team.

    Now that’s an impressive tilting of the ice. He’s also 4th best in shot suppression, allowing 53.4 CA/60.

    Think about this visually though. He’s winning less faceoffs than he loses. How is the puck ending up in the other end? If he skates it out himself, he’d have a job by now. He doesn’t and he doesn’t.

    Who’s the best puck-mover on the Los Angeles Kings?

    Oh yeah, that guy.

    Nick Shore is 59.4% CF with Drew Doughty, and 48.9% without him.

    Ten percent hikes uphill are hard to find.

    (he also starts in the DZ less often with Doughty, don’t wonder why that is)

    Note, this isn’t me disendorsing Shore, just sharing an example of what I find and how I find it when I’m digging through this stuff.

  79. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bank Shot:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like Brodziak as well, but it’s important to note that his most common linemates away from Thorburn were Berglund and Steen. He played second line for a stretch due to injuries.

    We are probably getting the 15 point Brodziak, not the 33 point guy, and that is fine as long as they saw off the play.

    Hopefully he meshes well with whoever we have on the 4th line.

    Brodziak moved up the line-up after Stastny got dealt to Winnipeg, & performed very very well with Steen & Berglund. A case can be made that he got the push & benefited from it; that said a case can also be made that when given the opportunity to hit above his weight class, he did so very successfully. A 4C who can move up in a pinch is a very useful thing to have.

  80. Lowetide says:

    stephen sheps: Nearly every academic I’ve worked with from grad school all the way through to the faculty level has at some point in time expressed feeling like an impostor. I feel it less in the classroom but at conferences or when trying to present my research to a group of people with tenure, (or hiring committees!) I definitely feel it. I happen to also have a bit of a theatre and performance background, which helps me to not show it, even when I’m terrified. Fake it till you make it is a real thing.

    I did a minute amount of little theatre in my life and it has helped in so many different ways over the years. Moving a conversation forward smoothly, overcoming insecurity, and (most importantly) stating with authority.

  81. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide: I did a minute amount of little theatre in my life and it has helped in so many different ways over the years. Moving a conversation forward smoothly, overcoming insecurity, and (most importantly) statingwith authority.

    Honestly I don’t think I’d be able to lecture to 150+ Kids at a time if I didn’t have that background. What you described above (advancing a conversation, stating information and ideas with authority) are exactly the skills I needed to be able to do my job well. It’s been nearly 20 years since I was on a stage though, and nearly 10 since I was on stage playing music. Sometimes I miss the rush.

  82. Revolved says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, the issue with Strome in the top 6 is exactly that, the replacement 3C:

    Aberg/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Khaira/Drai/Strome
    Lucic/Nuge/Rieder
    Caggulia/Brodziak/Kassian

    OR

    Nuge/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Aberg/Drai/Strome
    Lucic/Khaira/Rieder
    Caggulia/Broziack Kassian

    OR

    Nuge/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Aberg/Drai/Strome
    Khaira/Brodziak/Rieder
    Lucic/XXXXX Kassian
    DRESS 8D and give extra ice to 29/97

    None are ideal I don’t think.

    I posted the gf and cf% for the pairs from option one the other day, and they actually look really good. I think that RNHs services are best used for heavy lifting (as in 16/17) along side Lucic, who may be a boat anchor, but is one that saws off gf. There will be angst about their lack of offense, but the team will benefit – particularly Drai’s line with easier comp.

  83. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    In short, if he doesn’t play for the Raptors, he doesn’t become a free agent in a year’s time.

    Great summary on the situation here: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/unhappy-kawhi-leonard-really-sit-next-season-rather-reporting-raptors-212933174.html

    – It appears he will play. My reflection though was representing or not, the players in the NBA hold a lot of sway: these super-teams (which LeBron started), aren’t put together by smart GM’s, rather by colluding players (and their agents).

    – Not sure if I like it. Baseball (for different reasons), also has reverted back to some super-teams

    – On the flip side, I gravitate towards Dynasties in sport.

    – Back to the Oilers, picking upon OP’s article and some comments: with McD, Drai, RNH and Strome: you can create some dynamic lines, give the C’s time on wings, and also centering different lines. Coached up, lots of flex and looks. Need one winger to go off and step up

  84. alberta bound edmonton says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Congrats I appreciate your thoughtful and considered analysis. Good luck. I will be returning to copper and blue.

  85. Wilde says:

    The reason I still like Shore? There’s something to be said here about carriable players.

    The Kings forged a positive shot and goalshare by using a strong two-way defenseman while their 4th line was on, presumably against the bottom half of other teams rosters.

    This is not always possible, because some team’s 3rd/4th liners are just so bad transitionally that they can’t even participate in a scheme like this. Nick Shore’s most common linemate was Trevor Lewis:

    NS with TL / / NS without TL / / TL without NS

    52.9 CF% / / 53.4 CF% / / 46.03%

    This is a standard drag. Nick Shore is better away from Lewis, Lewis is worse away from Shore.

    Both of them, along with Doughty: 62.0% CF, 5-4 goals.

    Just Lewis and Doughty, no Shore: 44.3% CF, 3-8 goals.

    Just Shore and Doughty, no Lewis: 55.7% CF, 8-6 goals.

    See the difference between a carriable player, and a drag? For me, it’s a key part of the inefficiency of NHL bottom-6 deployments.

    (Some of these a smaller samples, I tried to illustrate that in the goal counts. The smallest sample is NS and DD no TL, at 86 minutes, the rest are over two hours)

    There isn’t a lot of places where this Oilers roster is above a playoff team, outside of top two forwards.

    One of them though, is possibly 3LD.

    Many playoff teams, even contenders, have soft bottom pairings. Nashville had one in their SCF loss, same with San Jose. They were both feasted on by the Penguins.

    If the Oilers can put together a carriable 4th line, and the D deployment ends up with one of Klef, Nurse, or a healthy Sekera on the third pairing, I think you could copy what has (intentionally or not) been utilised by the Kings here, and do the most important thing that this team needs to do to be successful: forge a positive share of the goals away from McDavid.

    All three of those defencemen can skate the puck up the ice, all that’s needed is some responsible forwards, with a centre who can support the puck, wingers who can pick the puck off the boards, and then just leave it to the Oilers having (remarkably) more skill on the ice, via a talented, intelligent 3LD.

  86. godot10 says:

    Brodziak as #2RW

    Nugent-Hopkins McDavid Rieder
    Khaira Draisaitl Brodziak
    Lucic Strome Puljujarvi
    Caggiula Marody Aberg/Rattie/Kassian

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Congrats OP

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    I did want to thank every one for their kind wishes and support and, of course, thank LT this platform – such a wonderful place to discuss all things Oiler.

    I have no desire to frequent this place any less – when one only sleeps 4 hours/night, there is time!

  89. Professor Q says:

    Melvis:
    Corey Perry is one of those Ducks you just love to hate. Yet, in international play, I’m always rooting for him.

    Almost an Oiler, and if he had been, I’d still be wearing the jersey. Just another one of those KLowe screwups. Comrie for Perry and a first round pick almost happened, if anybody remembers.

    So Comrie went to Philly for, I dunno,Curly, Moe, and Larry.

    I never root for him even in international play, even as a Knights fan.

    The knee-on-knee on Laine in the World Championship being just one example of his dirty play that I hate (Tikkanen calling him out on Twitter was hilarious). I bet it made him feel like a real man and superstar team player to do that to an 18 year-old pre-NHLer.

  90. deardylan says:

    Congrats OP! So happy to read your first official article on CnB

    Could definitely see that coming and happy to return to CnB to read your latest articles. Copper n Blue is what helped me find Oilers Hockey.com aggregator which led me to LT. Keep up the great analysis, encouraging positive vibes and can’t wait to see what doors that opens up in the near future for you! Radio, TV, Croatian Hockey Reality TV Show?!

  91. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Btw, let me add my congrats to Original Pouzar for taking on my old gig of resident optimist at C&B. I enjoyed your first post.

    I must apologize that I did not notice you had left C&B and Edmonton Journal (have not read them in a while).

    You still do the “Let’s Do This!” Cult of Hockey podcast, right?

  92. Melvis says:

    Professor Q,

    Yeah, I know just how you feel. I really hate that Raffi Torres for potting the clincher against the Ducks putting the Oilers in the finals in ’06.

  93. Professor Q says:

    Melvis:
    Professor Q,

    Yeah, I know just how you feel. I really hate that Raffi Torres for potting the clincher against the Ducks putting the Oilers in the finals in ’06.

    I’m not sure if you’re mocking me or not…

    But the hit by Torres against the Sharks really was a high hit.

    I remember the hit on Jason Williams, too. He’s from my hometown, so it was a bit weirder.

    Head-hunters have no place in the game, sorry. I know you might disagree due to them sometimes having good contributions.

    The sad part is that Torres was a scorer in the CHL, and decided that he was pressured enough to need to develop that role to stay in the NHL. Eventually it caught up to him, which is sad on many fronts (and it’s the culture, the NHL, himself, and the systems to be blamed).

    It’s sort of like Ovechkin (though he has many other benefits, so people love him regardless) and Tom Wilson these playoffs. So many cheap shots and dirty double teams that weren’t called or weren’t called severely enough, and bam. Stanley Cup.

  94. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bank Shot: RNH’s possession numbers have always been overlooked/excused by the Oilers analytics fans to some extent.

    He’s never been fantastic at corsi or scoring, but he’s always gotten a pass for it.

    Good player, but he’s been overpaid the first 4 years of his contract. Wish it would have been him for Jones instead of Hall for Larsson.

    I remain convinced Eberle and ‘maybe’ a lower pick could have done the job at that time. There was bad Oiler juju going on.

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Benning only play 480 mins 5v5 when Letestu was on the team?

    Oops, that’s Letestu’s TOI for the 54 games he played with Benning.

    Letestu played 60 games, Benning 73.

    Benning missed 3 games after the trade deadline so they played 54 games together.

    That’s just under 9 min a game for Letestu.

    Benning’s is this:

    155min 18.2% GF
    718min 57.8% GF

  96. Bank Shot says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Brodziak moved up the line-up after Stastny got dealt to Winnipeg, & performed very very well with Steen & Berglund. A case can be made that he got the push & benefited from it; that said a case can also be made that when given the opportunity to hit above his weight class, he did so very successfully. A 4C who can move up in a pinch is a very useful thing to have.

    I agree. I’m just trying to temper expectations on Brodziak a bit. He has always been good when playing with talent. That Brodziak-Glencross 4th line was crazy for about 2-3 months.

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like Brodziak as well, but it’s important to note that his most common linemates away from Thorburn were Berglund and Steen. He played second line for a stretch due to injuries.

    We are probably getting the 15 point Brodziak, not the 33 point guy, and that is fine as long as they saw off the play.

    Hopefully he meshes well with whoever we have on the 4th line.

    Berglund was playing lower in the order, but you’re right on the TOI with Steen.

    Agreed that quiet competence at the NHL level, RH draw +50% and PK effectively is a pretty big upgrade on Letestu who only could match the RH draw +50% part last year.

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Brodziak moved up the line-up after Stastny got dealt to Winnipeg, & performed very very well with Steen & Berglund. A case can be made that he got the push & benefited from it; that said a case can also be made that when given the opportunity to hit above his weight class, he did so very successfully. A 4C who can move up in a pinch is a very useful thing to have.

    Brodziak also played with Berglund lower in the order during the year from the TOI that I looked at.

    Berglund and Steen only played 47 minutes together away from Brodziak (207 minutes as a trio) so its not like they were playing together with Statsny before he left.

    STL has been trying to dump Berglund’s contract for 2 years now as he was a very expensive 3rd liner on their team.

  99. Nix says:

    Congrats OP!!!
    Has LT quietly enabled a world-class croudsourced analytics thinktank pro-style blogger factory? Powerful if true..

  100. Wilde says:

    Nix:
    Congrats OP!!!
    Has LT quietly enabled a world-class croudsourced analytics thinktank pro-style blogger factory? Powerful if true..

    unironically and sincerely, yes.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde,

    There isn’t a lot of places where this Oilers roster is above a playoff team, outside of top two forwards.

    One of them though, is possibly 3LD.

    This is a really good point.

    NSH had to play their top 4 a ton to avoid playing their 3rd as well and fatigue can be a huge thing in the playoffs.

    I’m actually in the process of going through the Dcorps of each team in preparation to make my usual slew of over/under bets on season totals as well as find some nice long odds on Conference Champions.

    One thing that I do (and is works quite well for rating Dcrops imo) is counting the number of “Actual NHL Top 4 Dmen” on the team. I give half points for players who are a decent 5/6 (can be the second best player on a second pair and not get killed)

    I’ve done the Pacific and I have this:

    5.0 EDM (2, 6, 25, 77 full points, 83 & 4 get half points – assumes 2 health)
    4.5 ARI
    4.0 VGK
    3.5 ANA
    3.5 CGY
    3.5 LAK
    3.5 SJS
    2.5 VAN

    Dman depth come into play when a top 4 Dman goes down and the player taking the spot isn’t a massive drag. EDM has that in spades this year with 83 & 4 (I think they play 4 at 2RD with 25, but I digress…..) That’s important.

    Its amazing that ANA has gone from Dman factory to hoping that Montour can have a good sophomore season so they can ice a decent 2nd pair.

    I *almost* gave CGY a 3 as Brodie hasn’t carried a 2nd pair for 2 years now but word is he’ll play with Gio and Gio can carry them, but not to the tune of Gio&Dougie who were a top 5 pair in the league.

    VAN should probably be a 3 as Stecher is the goods imo, but I’m hedging against Edler’s slight decline and Tanev’s health.

    If I could trust Goligoski to be the Goligoski of the the 4 years previous to last year I would have given ARI a 5.

    ARI has the best starting goalie in the Pacific too. Hit the over.

  102. Melvis says:

    Melvis,

    I posted a generalization about Perry after Bruce mentioned him at 12:34. I didn’t point it at anyone specifically. Of course, you’re free to do the same thing, but you chose to stick it in my face.

    Of course, I’m mocking you. Reread the first sentence. “Corey Perry is one of those Ducks you love to hate”. Is there something about that line that eludes you?

    Among 750 players, there are always going to be a couple of run around clowns hell bent on hurting someone. I don’t support them anymore than I support drunk drivers that sometimes have “good contributions.” They have no place on the road. Sorry, but dream on.

    This isn’t the first time you’ve pointed a bit of condescension at me. Knock it off.

  103. Munny says:

    Kudos, OP! Have fun with it!

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wouldn’t get too enthralled with Brodziak’s faceoff prowess – his 52% last year was a career high and his first time over 50% in years.

    He generally come in somewhere between 48-50%.

    It will be nice to have a better right shot option than Strome.

  105. Professor Q says:

    Melvis,

    Okay. Maybe I misread too much into things. To clarify what got me, when you post,

    “I really hate that Raffi Torres for potting the clincher against the Ducks putting the Oilers in the finals in ’06.”

    In the context of our discourse, it’s going to come off as facetious and a bit sarcastic and cheeky (as if you really don’t hate him for that, and think that I don’t either; but if you do, then fine).

    I took it almost as implying that I was untruthful as to me not supporting goons if they’re on my team and contribute otherwise, so to speak.

    I admit that I misread it as we already have developed a preconceived “disagreement relationship”. If I’ve added annoyance to your evening then I apologize.

  106. Melvis says:

    Professor Q: I’m not sure if you’re mocking me or not…

    But the hit by Torres against the Sharks really was a high hit.

    I remember the hit on Jason Williams, too. He’s from my hometown, so it was a bit weirder.

    Head-hunters have no place in the game, sorry. I know you might disagree due to them sometimes having good contributions.

    The sad part is that Torres was a scorer in the CHL, and decided that he was pressured enough to need to develop that role to stay in the NHL. Eventually it caught up to him, which is sad on many fronts (and it’s the culture, the NHL, himself, and the systems to be blamed).

    It’s sort of like Ovechkin (though he has many other benefits, so people love him regardless) and Tom Wilson these playoffs. So many cheap shots and dirty double teams that weren’t called or weren’t called severely enough, and bam. Stanley Cup.

    Melvis:
    Melvis,

    I posted a generalization about Perry after Bruce mentioned him at 12:34. I didn’t point it at anyone specifically. Of course, you’re free to do the same thing, but you chose to stick it in my face.

    Of course, I’m mocking you. Reread the first sentence. “Corey Perry is one of those Ducks you love to hate”. Is there something about that line that eludes you?

    Among 750 players, there are always going to be a couple of run around clowns hell bent on hurting someone. I don’t support them anymore than I support drunk drivers that sometimes have “good contributions.”They have no place on the road.” Sorry, but dream on.

    This isn’t the first time you’ve pointed a bit of condescension at me. Knock it off.

    Man, I don’t know what I hate more – fumbling fingers, talking to myself, or all of this dumb ass, immature blog iteration.

  107. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Its amazing that ANA has gone from Dman factory to hoping that Montour can have a good sophomore season so they can ice a decent 2nd pair.

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Its amazing that ANA has gone from Dman factory to hoping that Montour can have a good sophomore season so they can ice a decent 2nd pair.

    Bob Murray has been sneaky-bad for awhile now, it’s delicious. Probably the worst decision making history or any of the recently successful teams outside of Montreal.

    The scouts are giving him so much and he’s not cashing them or keeping them properly.

    They got utterly trashed this year with:

    – Rakell at 3.8M

    – Getzlaf still at elite 1C level

    – Kase @ ELC

    – Lindholm and Manson at 9M COMBINED

    And their prime-age cluster of draft picks was this:

    (between 2011 and 2014 – draft +4 to draft +7)

    Etem
    Smith-Pelley
    Wagner
    Rakell
    W. Karlsson
    Ritchie
    Kase

    Fowler
    Manson
    Lindholm
    Theodore
    Montour

    Gibson
    Andersen

    That’s a top line forward, two second liners, two third liners and two fourth liners(rougly), an entire elite D corps, and two starting goalies.

    (those are just quick ratings to illustrate the point)

    All while getting Kesler for peanuts and having a couple elite forwards already existing on the team.

    And getting away with a filthy, garbage way to play hockey.

    I hope they enjoy their meaningless banners.

  108. Melvis says:

    Professor Q,

    It isn’t a big deal. No need to apologize. This isn’t a knee on knee debate. Just a bit of mutual face washing. It’s a part of the game.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde,

    I like Rakell and Kase a lot, but it will nice to see the Ducks fade over the next few years as Getzlaf fades if they keep pissing away their young talent.

    Gibson is the goods too.

    Assholes.

  110. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, the issue with Strome in the top 6 is exactly that, the replacement 3C:

    Aberg/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Khaira/Drai/Strome
    Lucic/Nuge/Rieder
    Caggulia/Brodziak/Kassian

    OR

    Nuge/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Aberg/Drai/Strome
    Lucic/Khaira/Rieder
    Caggulia/Broziack Kassian

    OR

    Nuge/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Aberg/Drai/Strome
    Khaira/Brodziak/Rieder
    Lucic/XXXXX Kassian
    DRESS 8D and give extra ice to 29/97

    None are ideal I don’t think.

    A little off topic, but I’ve been a bit confused why you’re so opposed to slotting Rieder above the 3rd line, and seem to think he can’t handle a top 6 role.

    He ranked 80th in points among wingers in 15-16 (120 wingers play top 6)
    He ranked 86th in 16-17
    And 125th in 17-18 (124 top 6 W with Vegas)

    Even allowing that a bunch guys listed as Cs play wing his rank among all forwards was:
    156th in 15-16 (180 top 6 Fs)
    170th in 16-17
    247th in 17-18 (186 top 6 Fs)

    So in 15-16 and 16-17 he scored like a top 6 forward.

    His most common Cs have been Hanazl (15-16 and 16-17), Stepan (17-18) and Carter after the trade to LA. None of these guys have played 3C. He’s been top 6 in TOI for Arizona in each of the past 3 yrs. He is and has been a 2nd line winger (albeit on a bad team).

    It would be splendid if the Oilers can keep him on the 3rd line in the Pisani role, but pretty sure he’s capable of moving up if needed.

    PS – Nice job with the new gig, and good to hear you’re not going to leave us! Agree entirely the only issue with trying Strome up the lineup is the hole it will leave at 3C.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    You make a point and I can’t argue with the facts.

    I think, on the assumption that Rattie is going to start the year as 1RW, I’ve been of the opinion (and remain of the opinion) that it should be Puljujarvi that gets the 2RW opportunity and Rieder penciled in as 3RW (of course, subject to performance).

    The premise is that Jesse is simply the higher pedigree and the more dymanic/higher potential offensive player and I think he will take a decent step forward (as many higher end European comparables do in their draft plus 3 year). Given Rieder’s more mature 2-way game, I see him as a fantastic third line player.

    Essentially, as between the two, I think Jesse is the better fit higher in the lineup.

    With respect to the potential lines above that do not have Rattie locked in to the top line, I guess I convinced myself the Rieder should be a third liner on this team and never really considered moving him up as I was thinking about structuring the new lines.

    Absolutely, he’s a viable option in the top 6, however, my preference would be to have him generally on a very solid third line and to move up as required – of course, given our lack of offensive wingers overall, we likely do not have that luxury.

  112. Professor Q says:

    As a point, I think Rieder played LW (well, both?) with Draisaitl internationally. Couldn’t he play there, with Puljujärvi at RW?

    It certainly will be an interesting time for line matchup and chemistry testing, and I do think Edmonton has some good potentials. If it remains reasonable and doesn’t keep changing from period to period.

  113. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree – I don’t think the coaching staff will actually explore this option even though I think it should be explored (if a suitable option for 3C arises).

    It will be a more viable option when Maksimov graduates to our 1LW……..

    Strome has shown is NY and last year that he performs much better at centre than on the wing. Leave him where he is. Maksimov will never be 1lw as long as Nuge plays there.

  114. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    You make a point and I can’t argue with the facts.

    I think, on the assumption that Rattie is going to start the year as 1RW, I’ve been of the opinion (and remain of the opinion) that it should be Puljujarvi that gets the 2RW opportunity and Rieder penciled in as 3RW (of course, subject to performance).

    The premise is that Jesse is simply the higher pedigree and the more dymanic/higher potential offensive player and I think he will take a decent step forward (as many higher end European comparables do in their draft plus 3 year).Given Rieder’s more mature 2-way game, I see him as a fantastic third line player.

    Essentially, as between the two, I think Jesse is the better fit higher in the lineup.

    With respect to the potential lines above that do not have Rattie locked in to the top line, I guess I convinced myself the Rieder should be a third liner on this team and never really considered moving him up as I was thinking about structuring the new lines.

    Absolutely, he’s a viable option in the top 6, however, my preference would be to have him generally on a very solid third line and to move up as required – of course, given our lack of offensive wingers overall, we likely do not have that luxury.

    Past quotes show Drai wants Reider on his wing due to past experience with him. Puljy has to earn the top six spot, not be gifted it.

  115. jp says:

    Oilman99: Strome has shown is NY and last year that he performs much better at centre than on the wing. Leave him where he is.

    If you read OP’s article at Copper and Blue, or numerous of his posts here over the past months, Strome’s best performances have actually been at RW on a skill line (both in NY and with the Oilers).

    He’s a solid 3C, and the Oilers likely need him there, but he may well be an exceptional complimentary if played with skill (as his Jr numbers, draft position and small samples in the NHL attest).

  116. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I did want to thank every one for their kind wishes and support and, of course, thank LT this platform – such a wonderful place to discuss all things Oiler.

    I have no desire to frequent this place any less – when one only sleeps 4 hours/night, there is time!

    Isn’t that called trolling?

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    As a point, I think Rieder played LW (well, both?) with Draisaitl internationally. Couldn’t he play there, with Puljujärvi at RW?

    It certainly will be an interesting time for line matchup and chemistry testing, and I do think Edmonton has some good potentials. If it remains reasonable and doesn’t keep changing from period to period.

    I suppose he could, however, on the assumption that Yamamoto starts the year in Bakersfield (big assumption though), I think we may need him to play the right side more than the left as we have Nuge, Lucic, and Khaira all established on the left side (along with Drake). Moving Rieder to the left side risks Caggulia playing higher in the lineup on the right side than I think anyone wants.

    There is a lot of flux given so many wingers that can play both sides and wild cards such as Aberg (who could play top 6 – he was at 2P/60 after the trade – albeit zoomed by the one 3 point game).

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Strome has shown is NY and last year that he performs much better at centre than on the wing. Leave him where he is. Maksimov will never be 1lw as long as Nuge plays there.

    1) I’m not so sure Stome has played his best at center. His best offensive season came mostly as a right winger. In small sample sizes (albeit almost 200 minutes with Leon) he has shown to help improve the goal share and possession numbers of both McDavid and Leon (moreso than any other Oiler forward). On the other hand, he has said he has been more comfortable at center but the team gets a higher percentage of goals when he plays wing in the top 6.

    2) Maksimov developing in to a 1st line winger is unlikely and, if it ever does happen (and it could with his shot), its years away. The point being, when this organization develops/acquires some actual top 6 wingers over the next few years, we can move Nuge back to center where he truly belongs. This team will win championships with McDavid/Leon/Nuge down the middle.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Isn’t that called trolling?

    I have no idea what you are getting at but you seem to have some problem with me so i don’t think it makes sense to continue to engage with you.

  120. BONE207 says:

    Wilde:
    Has anyone here dealt with/known someone who’s dealt with imposter syndrome?

    Maybe I’m late to the gathering but I’ll bite. What is imposter syndrome? Is this similar to identity theft?

  121. digger50 says:

    I think this years team will miss Maroon.

    I believe we previously discussed Nuge / Connor / Strome as potentially the dominant top line the Oil are looking for.

    With Tmac, it’s so hard to know the Nuge will be there let alone see what Strome can do for five games. The tryout may consist of three shifts.

    While Connor will do fine with or without help on his line it’s seems only fair to get him some great wingers. Next step of course is to pro vide Drai enough help to win goal share.

    Rieder. / Leon / Jessie seem the most obvious choice

    Does this leave enough strength for the bottom six?

    It does allow for an above average fourth line, it is the third line that would be the weak link.

  122. Professor Q says:

    BONE207: Maybe I’m late to the gathering but I’ll bite. What is imposter syndrome? Is this similar to identity theft?

    It’s common in academia. University staff and students get training and support (though more is needed, and beyond just I.S., but support for having marginalized groups actually feel welcomed and stay in academia and research). I missed mine, though…

    https://www.grad.ubc.ca/about-us/newsletter/feeling-fraud-imposter-syndrome-graduate-school

    It’s complicated and can be a wide variety of things, and caused by a variety of things. The feeling of being inadequate, not feeling welcomed or belonging, not feeling that you have merit or perhaps feeling that you’ve not accomplished what you have due to said merit but had you’ve squeaked by or somehow got lucky and now will be exposed as the fraud you are (mind tricks, social pressures, etc.; not the reality in reality but the mirror and perceptions formed in your mind). You aren’t good enough, won’t make it like the others, are the outsider, drifting by. Not contributing significantly.

    A tricky and complicated ordeal affecting many, especially marginalized groups (other factors at play there).

  123. GMB3 says:

    jp: If you read OP’s article at Copper and Blue, or numerous of his posts here over the past months, Strome’s best performances have actually been at RW on a skill line (both in NY and with the Oilers).

    He’s a solid 3C, and the Oilers likely need him there, but he may well be an exceptional complimentary if played with skill (as his Jr numbers, draft position and small samples in the NHL attest).

    Perhaps they didn’t give Strome much time with McDavid to keep his contract number down this year? (I don’t actually think it’s the coaches job to really worry about this, their W-L record is their meal ticket).

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    I think this years team will miss Maroon.

    I believe we previously discussed Nuge / Connor / Strome as potentially the dominant top line the Oil are looking for.

    With Tmac, it’s so hard to know the Nuge will be there let alone see what Strome can do for five games. The tryout may consistof three shifts.

    While Connor will do fine with or without help on his line it’s seems only fair to get him some great wingers. Next step of course is to pro vide Drai enough help to win goal share.

    Rieder. / Leon / Jessieseem the most obvious choice

    Does this leave enough strength for the bottom six?

    It does allow for an above average fourth line, it is the third line that would be the weak link.

    Our head coach is a proud guy and I’m sure he is embarrassed by last season’s results – personally, I think he does hold himself accountable (he has expressed directly that he needs to be better) – I am hopeful that he makes some changes to his approach and improves – line deployment is included in this. Perhaps his assistants can help with this.

    With the emergence of Stome and Khaira as legit PKers and the addition of Brodziak and Rieder (and only losing Pak from the PK I believe), I am hopefull we can give McDavid (and Drai) less PK time which should allow for some additional even strength minutes. I wouldn’t mind seeing our coach go outside the box and think about dressing 11 forwards and 8D (especially if Bouchard is in the lineup). I think each of McDavid and Drai (and even Nuge) taken some shifts as that 3C could have value.

  125. digger50 says:

    I also like the suggestion of putting Nuge back to center with Lucic and a speedy defensive responsible winger (?) and run him against toughs as much as possable.

    Of course we can’t hide Connor so he will still see high Quality or completion, but it may open the door for Drai to face third line competition and clean up.

    Do we have enough wingers to make it work??

    Lucic / Nuge / ?
    Rieder / Connor / Strome
    Khaira / Leon / Jessie
    Drake / Brodziak / Kassian

    Could Yamamoto fill in here for Khaira, bumping Khaira up to the defensive responsible winger for Nuge?

    We are a little thin yet to make it work, however I like it as a complete tactical switch.

  126. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    You make a point and I can’t argue with the facts.

    I think, on the assumption that Rattie is going to start the year as 1RW, I’ve been of the opinion (and remain of the opinion) that it should be Puljujarvi that gets the 2RW opportunity and Rieder penciled in as 3RW (of course, subject to performance).

    The premise is that Jesse is simply the higher pedigree and the more dymanic/higher potential offensive player and I think he will take a decent step forward (as many higher end European comparables do in their draft plus 3 year).Given Rieder’s more mature 2-way game, I see him as a fantastic third line player.

    Essentially, as between the two, I think Jesse is the better fit higher in the lineup.

    With respect to the potential lines above that do not have Rattie locked in to the top line, I guess I convinced myself the Rieder should be a third liner on this team and never really considered moving him up as I was thinking about structuring the new lines.

    Absolutely, he’s a viable option in the top 6, however, my preference would be to have him generally on a very solid third line and to move up as required – of course, given our lack of offensive wingers overall, we likely do not have that luxury.

    It would be spectacular if the Oilers are able to keep Rieder at 3R. I understand your premise, but I guess I’m not convinced Rattie will hold the 1R job for long.

    Rieder with Draisaitl does have a lot of appeal – I’m sure both players would like to get a chance together (and for that matter, Drai could use some help with the 2-way work). Agreed that Puljujarvi has the pedigree/potential and should pass Rieder before long, but he’s also still finding his way and appears prone to lapses in confidence. I’m more than fine with him at 3R with Strome for now (that also wouldn’t hurt to keep his next contract reasonable, as a bonus).

    I haven’t gotten attached to exact line projections. There’s a lot of viable options, and a ton of unknowns (this is totally aside from McLellan’s constant line juggling). I kinda feel like Yamamoto will grab that 1R job real soon though, maybe even right out of camp. He was magic by every metric I’ve seen except for actual goals.

    My tentative lines are:
    Nuge-McDavid-Yamamoto
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Rieder
    Khaira-Strome-Puljujarvi
    Caggiula/Aberg-Brodziak-Kassian
    Caggiula/Aberg—–Rattie
    (Bonus: no Brad Malone)

    It’s fluid though. Maybe Rattie can hold 1R (the man is skilled). Maybe Nuge-McDavid was (partly) smoke and mirrors. Maybe Aberg is something. Maybe Strome moves up. Maybe Rieder shows another gear with more skilled Cs (he’s ideal as the Pisani, but he’s still younger than Pisani was when he played his first game).

    All that said there are a lot of options (and most are actual NHL player, upside yet to be determined). That combined with likely improvement from the D and G has me pretty optimistic.

  127. jp says:

    GMB3: Perhaps they didn’t give Strome much time with McDavid to keep his contract number down this year? (I don’t actually think it’s the coaches job to really worry about this, their W-L record is their meal ticket).

    I do wonder about that. Perhaps the GM gave suggestions to keep Strome at C for the most part. Tough to know though.

  128. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Our head coach is a proud guy and I’m sure he is embarrassed by last season’s results – personally, I think he does hold himself accountable (he has expressed directly that he needs to be better) – I am hopeful that he makes some changes to his approach and improves – line deployment is included in this.Perhaps his assistants can help with this.

    With the emergence of Stome and Khaira as legit PKers and the addition of Brodziak and Rieder (and only losing Pak from the PK I believe), I am hopefull we can give McDavid (and Drai) less PK time which should allow for some additional even strength minutes. I wouldn’t mind seeing our coach go outside the box and think about dressing 11 forwards and 8D (especially if Bouchard is in the lineup).I think each of McDavid and Drai (and even Nuge) taken some shifts as that 3C could have value.

    True that the coach is proud and competent and yet also true he can be stubborn and slow to adapt.

    If he was to deploy this strategy you suggest I would be thrilled. Not necessarily because I loved it, but because it was a strategy and he tried it. I would not criticize the strategy, only if it failed and he did not adjust. See penalty kill 2017-2018.

    We all have Nuge as 1LW. Yet most agree Connor will win his goal share regardless of wingers and it’s is critical that the second line must now also win its goal share. Based on that it should be Nuge and Leon paired up .

    Whatever the strategy, I woul like it If was well thought out, logical and well executed. I will have a hard time again this year if we see stubborn, poorly executed systems and seemingly random based roster deployment. All this my opinion of course.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    I also like the suggestion of putting Nuge back to center with Lucic and a speedy defensive responsible winger (?) and run him against toughs as much as possable.

    Of course we can’t hide Connor so he will still see high Quality or completion, but it may open the door for Drai to face third line competition and clean up.

    Do we have enough wingers to make it work??

    Lucic / Nuge / ?
    Rieder / Connor / Strome
    Khaira / Leon / Jessie
    Drake / Brodziak / Kassian

    Could Yamamoto fill in here for Khaira, bumping Khaira up to the defensive responsible winger for Nuge?

    We are a little thin yet to make it work, however I like it as a complete tactical switch.

    You could put Rieder with Nuge and Aberg with Connor?

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: It would be spectacular if the Oilers are able to keep Rieder at 3R. I understand your premise, but I guess I’m not convinced Rattie will hold the 1R job for long.

    Rieder with Draisaitl does have a lot of appeal – I’m sure both players would like to get a chance together (and for that matter, Drai could use some help with the 2-way work). Agreed that Puljujarvi has the pedigree/potential and should pass Rieder before long, but he’s also still finding his way and appears prone to lapses in confidence. I’m more than fine with him at 3R with Strome for now (that also wouldn’t hurt to keep his next contract reasonable, as a bonus).

    I haven’t gotten attached to exact line projections. There’s a lot of viable options, and a ton of unknowns (this is totally aside from McLellan’s constant line juggling). I kinda feel like Yamamoto will grab that 1R job real soon though, maybe even right out of camp. He was magic by every metric I’ve seen except for actual goals.

    My tentative lines are:
    Nuge-McDavid-Yamamoto
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Rieder
    Khaira-Strome-Puljujarvi
    Caggiula/Aberg-Brodziak-Kassian
    Caggiula/Aberg—–Rattie
    (Bonus: no Brad Malone)

    It’s fluid though. Maybe Rattie can hold 1R (the man is skilled). Maybe Nuge-McDavid was (partly) smoke and mirrors. Maybe Aberg is something. Maybe Strome moves up. Maybe Rieder shows another gear with more skilled Cs (he’s ideal as the Pisani, but he’s still younger than Pisani was when he played his first game).

    All that said there are a lot of options (and most are actual NHL player, upside yet to be determined). That combined with likely improvement from the D and G has me pretty optimistic.

    Great post (I would be apt to switch Jesee and Tobias, as we know, but I want to keep Jesse away from Lucic).

    As an aside, I don’t know what Drai has said but I do know that Rieder has totally discounting playing with Drai as a material reason for signing with the Oil. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure he’d be just fin be playing with Leon but he’s not expecting it just because of their international history.

  131. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Now i was just random brainstorming (or uber crazy thinking), but i wonder how the oilers would do with this set up:

    JP – McDavid – Yamamoto
    Nuge – Drai – Reider
    Lucic – Strome – Kassian
    Aberg/Khaira – Brodziak – Caggiula

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Sekera – Bear/Bouchard
    Russell

    That 1st line could be explosive!!! And there is plenty of skill/speed throughout the lineup with the obvious exception of lucic, who i think may do better with a right shot center (strome) in a possession/cycling type game.

    I know people will harp on this saying “why would you gift JP or Yamamoto the first line with McDavid” and “their’s too much rookie on that line”. but you know what, those two players looked like the most compatible players playing with McDavid when they got the chance and the advanced numbers agree!

    Thoughts?

  132. BONE207 says:

    Professor Q: …

    https://www.grad.ubc.ca/about-us/newsletter/feeling-fraud-imposter-syndrome-graduate-school

    The feeling of being inadequate, not feeling welcomed or belonging, not feeling that you have merit or perhaps feeling that you’ve not accomplished what you have due to said merit but had you’ve squeaked by or somehow got lucky and now will be exposed as the fraud you are. You aren’t good enough, won’t make it like the others, are the outsider, drifting by. Not contributing significantly.

    So pretty much what everyone feels when challenging Woodguy on most topics…8)

  133. jp says:

    BONE207: So pretty much what everyone feels when challenging Woodguy on most topics…8)

    Haha, that was my thought when reading it too (not the Woodguy part, but that this is what everyone feels when challenged or faced with new/difficult situations).

    I think the addition of Syndrome though indicates a much more than reasonable fear of failure and inadequacy. In hindsight I’m pretty certain a colleague of mine left our field due to IS (though I had not heard of the term before tonight). It’s a damn shame because she was fairly amazing but didn’t know it.

  134. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Great post (I would be apt to switch Jesee and Tobias, as we know, but I want to keep Jesse away from Lucic).

    As an aside, I don’t know what Drai has said but I do know that Rieder has totally discounting playing with Drai as a material reason for signing with the Oil.Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure he’d be just fin be playing with Leon but he’s not expecting it just because of their international history.

    Thanks.

    And Lucic seems to be a key part of both our alignments. I think he’ll be 2L (with a much longer leash than Rattie at 1R). And hopefully he rebounds, it’s completely plausible. But that leads to Puljujarvi at 3R, with the domino likely being Rieder at 2R.

    That setup would also keep Khaira down the lineup a bit. He’s looked really good, but there’s very little scoring history there. I’m not convinced he can handle a top 6 role.

    Re: Rieder-Draisaitl, Rieder was clear he didn’t sign just to play with Draisaitl. But Draisaitl has said he’s looking forward to having another German to talk to on the bench or in the room. All that aside, a responsible 2-way winger with some skill, who also has a history playing with Draisaitl seems like a reasonable choice.

  135. VOR says:

    Professor Q: It’s common in academia. University staff and students get training and support (though more is needed, and beyond just I.S., but support for having marginalized groups actually feel welcomed and stay in academia and research). I missed mine, though…

    https://www.grad.ubc.ca/about-us/newsletter/feeling-fraud-imposter-syndrome-graduate-school

    It’s complicated and can be a wide variety of things, and caused by a variety of things. The feeling of being inadequate, not feeling welcomed or belonging, not feeling that you have merit or perhaps feeling that you’ve not accomplished what you have due to said merit but had you’ve squeaked by or somehow got lucky and now will be exposed as the fraud you are (mind tricks, social pressures, etc.; not the reality in reality but the mirror and perceptions formed in your mind). You aren’t good enough, won’t make it like the others, are the outsider, drifting by. Not contributing significantly.

    A tricky and complicated ordeal affecting many, especially marginalized groups (other factors at play there).

    It is also incredibly common among elite athletes. Woman suffer from impostor syndrome more frequently than men. However, it is far from unknown in the ranks of male pro athletes.

    I had a football player who is in the NFL Hall of Fame pay me a lot of money to make him a better athlete. This was after he retired. But he said he felt like he wasn’t a good enough athlete to be in the Hall of Fame and he knew with the rational part of his brain that his on field exploits would take him there. He just wanted to feel like a real jock.

    But like I said it is worse for women. Or they are more honest about admitting it. I can remember sitting in the bar of a fancy hotel in Toronto. I was there coaching at the Colgate Women’s Games. The games had just ended. I was siting at a table with 7 young women. Each had won at least one medal at the games.

    They started talking about how they felt like they didn’t belong there. None of them thought they belonged among the best female athletes in the world. That they weren’t good enough. I can remember thinking “what the hell are you talking about? The seven of you hold ten world records. You belong.” I thought their insecurity was absurd. Years of working with elite female athletes has taught me these feelings are basically universal.

    The ubiquitousness of the problem forced me to figure out how to coach around it. My own life experience has taught me that I’m not that different. I have taught, lectured, spoken, facilitated seminars, and run workshops for more than 40 years. I am still terrified each time, thinking they are fools to be paying me to speak, that I will get up there and spew gibberish.

    It is a truly pervasive and pernicious problem. At 75, enshrined in the NFL Hall of Fame, with the college award for top receiver named after him, Freddie Biletnikoff still feels like a fraud (when he isn’t bitching about how he gets no respect). My 7 drinking buddies from that Toronto bar have won 19 Olympic medals in the years since that night. Each has won at least 1 Gold Medal. But they would each tell you they aren’t anything special, that they were never good enough, that they never belonged

    What is worse is each woman, and very famously Freddie, has tried to fuck up their real world success by trying to make their daily life’s match their internal view of themselves. Freddie chain smoked like Guy Lafleur, dieted like Dustin Penner, and worked out like Theo Peckham. He has introduced himself as Freddie Too Slow Biletnikoff so many times his friends call him Too Slow not Freddie.

    That probably sounds funny but some night when you want to cry a river I will tell you the story of all the ways my seven friends found to prove they didn’t belong.

  136. OilSlickster says:

    Oilman99,

    hahaha

  137. Revolved says:

    I understand the desire to make a super line where McDavid has support from high end forwards like RNH or Draisaitl, but it seems clear that this team’s issues are deeper down the lineup regardless of who plays with Connor. Just give him actual NHL players, i.e. Not Rattie or Caggiula. Perhaps nothing will help this more than being rid of the rotting corpse of Letestu, though Brodziak may also fall off on short notice, and support down the lineup must be an area of focus.

    It seems many people have forgotten how successful this team was in 16/17 by running RNH against (and sawing off) the tough assignments. It is a bonus that Lucic has also played this role successfully along side RNH the last two years and does not require him to get quicker.

    If Draisaitl is going to drive a line to out score, having softer competition may be a prerequisite, so he sets up well as 3C. I understand Strome has played 3C fairly well, but his GF% was only 47% even when including his successful minutes on RW. So, perhaps the question is which you think is more likely to drive the third line to >50% GF?

    X – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Lucic – RNH – X
    X – Draisaitl – Strome
    X – Brodziak – Kassian

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t mind that premise at all – as far as pairs go, Jesse has had success with McDavid and the Stome Drai pairing was great in almost 200 minutes last year (Strome was Drai’s best winger).

    We don’t have the depth the fill in the blanks with ideal fixes (we will within a few years with prospect development and acquisitions due to cap space from expiring contracts/disposition of contracts).

    I’d fill in the blanks as so:

    Rieder – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Lucic – RNH – Aberg
    Khaira – Draisaitl – Strome
    Caggulia – Brodziak – Kassian

    Another possibility would be:

    Rieder – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Lucic – RNH – Aberg
    Khaira – Draisaitl – Strome
    Brodziak– XXXXXX – Kassian

    Dress 7D (if Bouchard is on roster and in lineup, he could get limited/sheltered ES minutes and a PP push) and give McDavid/Drai extra ice. With Brodziak and Rieder added to the lineup, 97/29 should be able to PK less and take up extra ice at evens.

  139. Revolved says:

    You are correct that the Xs should really babe ?s, but between Aberg, Reider, Khaira, Yamamoto, Rattie and Caggiula,

    I think there must be enough to fill them in. Connor’s wing has to face the toughest comp, so I can see why you’d go with Reider, though he would also be useful beside RNH. Avery has the speed to keep up with McDavid, though maybe someone else can comment on his play without the puck?

    Draisaitl should get an offensive push, so a finisher like Rattie, Khaira (if last year was not a fluke) or even Kassian could fit well. IMO the most important thing for the ?s is competition, so that we are at least getting the best effort from whomever it is.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its really interesting that, while the 23 man roster is set but for a couple of questions (i.e. Yamamoto or Rattie (or both) and, if Yamamoto is re-assigned if they go with 8D or use Malone as the 14th forward), there is absolutely no consensus on the lines – so much in flux there.

    I guess, at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter too too much as the lines will change early and often but the less change the better and it would be great if McLellan could at least find solid pairs and a couple solid trios to essentially keep together all year.

  141. russ99 says:

    digger50:
    I also like the suggestion of putting Nuge back to center with Lucic and a speedy defensive responsible winger (?) and run him against toughs as much as possable.

    Of course we can’t hide Connor so he will still see high Quality or completion, but it may open the door for Drai to face third line competition and clean up.

    Do we have enough wingers to make it work??

    Lucic / Nuge / ?
    Rieder / Connor / Strome
    Khaira / Leon / Jessie
    Drake / Brodziak / Kassian

    Could Yamamoto fill in here for Khaira, bumping Khaira up to the defensive responsible winger for Nuge?

    We are a little thin yet to make it work, however I like it as a complete tactical switch.

    Lucic – Nuge is like oil and water. Let’s not go back to that, it’s detrimental to both players.

    Also regarding LT’s Benning push, shot metrics don’t quantify how Russell is vastly a better option than Benning in our zone without the puck, and you could say behind the center line without the puck too, since Benning being caught out of position or in mismatches is a bigger sin than Russell’s lack of zone entry prevention.

    If you want to give Corsi-positive defensemen a push due to offense, be sure they can cover the bet on the opposite end of the ice too.

  142. sumaclab says:

    The dog days of summer.And even the dogs are sick of the 30 degree weather. Bring on fall and let the competion begin.
    You know what I like about the Oilers summer so far? Chiarelli ahs done nothing stupid and that might have alot of value come December. His 3 FA signings were safe bets. If he does nothing at all the rest of the summer Ill be pleased.,Powder dry. And keep it that way.

  143. maudite says:

    I’m still waiting for the day when some coach sets up a roster always with 7D. One of those being a swing man who can also play 4th line wing/pk type duties.

    A utility player who is taking a regular shift even when the top 6 D are healthy makes a world of sense to me.

  144. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Not you personally Bruce……but why are we as a group manipulating the data…..According to the chart, Lucic is the better player at the same price……..if you value “sledgehammer”?

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